Following yesterday’s relief rally, the Spoo at present is below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate; (of note, the Yen [not as yet in the BEGOS complex] has traced 212% of its EDTR following the BOJ’s steady policy statement). The “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of the S&P 500 is 48.3x: thus far in Q1 earnings season with 242 constituents having reported, a full 42% have not bettered their bottom lines from a year ago; the Spoo (currently 4144) shows dominant Market Profile trading resistance at 4155; mind too the ongoing descent of the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” at Market Trends as its linear regression looks to be rotating toward negative into next week. Following yesterday’s slowing in reported Q1 GDP, the Econ Baro today awaits to April’s Chicago PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCI Prices, plus Q1’s Employment Cost Index.
Mark
27 April 2023 – 09:45 Central Euro Time
Gold and Silver remain resilient even in the face of weakening near-term technicals (as previously cited); both precious metals are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Copper which has already traced 75% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver’s cac volume is rolling from May into July, (as did that Copper on Tuesday). By Market Profiles, Silver has a trading resistance band from 25.35 up to 25.60, (current price right at 25.35); and by Market Trends, Silver’s “Baby Blues” continue to accelerate lower, as do those for Gold, Copper, Oil and the Spoo. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro as we get our first peek at Q1 GDP; in today’s mix as well are March’s Pending Home Sales.
26 April 2023 – 09:20 Central Euro Time
We’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is (for this time of the session) again light-to-moderate. Yesterday, the S&P 500 stemmed a 17-session streak of being “textbook overbought”, the Spoo itself reaching below its “low if a down day” for just the second time in better than a month; at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are accelerating lower; at Market Values, the Spoo has only just pieced its smooth valuation line to the downside as, too, it has just done through its Market Magnet; and the Spoo’s lows of three weeks ago have now been penetrated; thus still lower Spoo levels ought be in the offing from here. (‘Course more broadly, our notion for the S&P reaching sub-3000 makes sense given lower earnings and higher interest rates). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Durable Orders.
The Gold Update: No.701 (22 April 2023) – A Time to Add to One’s Gold Stack; (for the S&P, Prepare Hard Hat)
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 701st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 April 2023 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“A Time to Add to One’s Gold Stack; (for the S&P, Prepare Hard Hat)“
Yes, per last week’s 700th missive, an All-Time High for Gold remains nigh, (i.e. above 2089). Yet en route to said notion of nigh, we also penned our expectation for Gold to first recede into the 1900s, price indeed having traded this past week to as low as 1981 before settling yesterday (Friday) at 1994.
Nonetheless with respect to a new Gold high being nigh, might price still a bit further slide? After all, per The Oxford English Dictionary (circa 1879 as The New English Dictionary) “nigh” is simply defined as “near”. And contextually, “near” is not that far from here. Or numerically, 2089 is not that far from 1994, i.e. +95 points.
‘Course ’tis always about “The When”. In round numbers, let’s say Gold basically from here has to pop up +100 points to eclipse its existing All-Time High. Can that happen quickly? Historically since 2001, there have been 25 mutually-exclusive (for you WestPalmBeachers down there that means “non-overlapping”) occurrences wherein Gold has gained better than +100 points within just five trading days, the most recent case being in just three sessions from 1815 on 09 March to 1920 on 13 March. “You can bank on that.” (Ouch).
But in terms of Gold’s present ranginess, our EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) is now 63 points; thus solely by that metric, a new All-Time High above 2089 in a week’s time is a bit of a stretch. Moreover, we’ve the following near-term technical concern.
Recall a week ago our “continuing coverage” of Gold having significantly deviated above its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Here they are paired in the upper panel from one year ago-to-date:
The lower panel is the oscillator (price less valuation), at one recent point showing price as better than 150 points too high. Thus as anticipated, price this past week came back to this near-term method of valuation. However, upon price penetrating to close below valuation as just occurred yesterday, the “rule of thumb” is to expect still lower levels. Such negative penetrations have happened six times since a year ago to an average downside deviation of -77 points … which from here at 1994 “suggests” 1917, (just in case you’re scoring at home). But: our sense is — in staying with the theme that a new Gold All-Time High is nigh — we’re not anticipating much material downside. Rather, some of the levels we noted a week ago (such as 1953 and 1975) seem more reasonable, especially given our perception of Gold awareness being on the increase amongst the non-Gold crowd.
Moreover, as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend continues to ascend such that we continue to seek the new All-Time High along this bend, leading further toward the mid-2100s before reaching an end:
‘Course, there’d be no market for Gold were it not for “The Other Side of the Trade Dept.” represented just yesterday in Barron’s by one “AA” (and you know who you are out there) who penned “Gold is Hitting a Wall” such that the 2050-2075 zone somehow is “formidable resistance”. From our purview, such “resistance” is really the two tops formed first ’round COVID in 2020 and second ’round RUS/UKR in 2022 … and now thrice ’round Common Sense/Fundamental Undervaluation (per our opening Scoreboard level of Gold 3793). Thus we still see a wee dip … but then up with it. ‘Tis a time to add to one’s Gold stack. For as we’ve quipped of late quite a bit: “Triple tops are meant to be broken.”
Indeed speaking of “broken”, surely you’ve been following the daily track of the Economic Barometer. ‘Twasn’t the busiest of weeks for the Baro, but it did take in eight material metrics, six of which worsened period-over-period, those being April’s Philly Fed Index, March’s Housing Starts, Building Permits, Existing Home Sales and Leading (or “lagging” as they’re already incorporated into the Baro) Indicators, plus the second highest level of weekly Initial Jobless Claims since last August. The only two improvements were a one pip increase in April’s National Association of Home Builders Index, plus the month’s New York State Empire Index having turned positive for the first time since last November, (although just its fifth positive reading of the past 16 months). Toward tying it all up (or better stated down) with a bow, the Econ Baro nearly touched a one-year low:
Such “El Plungo” by the Baro obviously elicits the “R” word. Recall the back-to-back StateSide negative Gross Domestic Product readings for Q1 and Q2 of 2022 as having “defined” a recession … which was met with a rising Q3 and Q4, (i.e. per the lowly convention wisdom level, “the recession ended as soon as it started”). And now come this Thursday (27 April) we’ve the first peek at Q1 GDP, consensus calling for +2.0% annualized growth, albeit weaker than the prior two quarterly readings respectively of +3.2% (Q3) and then +2.6% (Q4). 
“Slip Slidin’ Away” –[Paul Simon, ’77]
“But don’t you ever get skepitcal of the reported numbers, mmb?”
At times, ’tis hard not to, Squire, albeit, the Econ Baro over its 25 calendar years has been on balance a magnificent precursor to such reports as the GDP, Leading Indicators, at alia. But skepticism is a natural reaction at times, a most glaring example being the Baro’s significant decline through much of last year’s Q4 metrics … but then +2.6% GDP growth was “reported”. One’s eyebrow thus is on occasion raised, but the bottom line is our maintaining the consistency in calculating the Baro all these many years. Still if the “reported” metrics via our sources are fudged, ’tis a bold disservice to us all.
Indeed speaking of “disservice”, the broadest one upon which we perennially harp is the disingenuous math used at large to dumb-down the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500. Research it via the internet, and the number (22.1x) is less than half that of our “live” 47.9x. (We’ve herein posted the formula a bazillion times — but that which was dutifully taught in B-school is irrelevant today — for at any cost do not let The Truth scare investors away).
And with respect to Earnings, the Q1 Season is well underway. How are we doing? Fairly poorly, one has to say. Thus far, some 72 S&P 500 constituents have reported, of which just 56% (40) bettered their bottom lines from a year ago. Going back 24 quarters (six years), that 56% (thus far) ranks fifth-worst … and if we eliminate the four COVID quarters of 2020, today’s Q1 ranks second-worst. And yet the S&P (now 4133) remains stratospherically up there in goo-goo land. ‘Tis nothing short of extraordinary. (Oooh… “short”…)
Time was when lousy earnings were fundamentally weak for the S&P. And now technically? (Prepare hard hat): by the website’s Market Trends page, the S&P Futures’ “Baby Blues” measure just confirmed dropping below the +80% axis (a highly reliable precedent to lower prices); by the MoneyFlow page ’tis running out of puff; the daily Parabolics on the Futures just flipped to Short; the MACD likely crosses to negative come Monday’s settle; and the “textbook technicals” just completed their 16th trading day as “overbought”. Thus for the S&P’s ensuing week or longer, can you say “Down”? ‘Tis our sense.
And again, our immediate sense too for the precious metals is a wee bit lower. Yet by our title we imply a chance to buy given the All-Time High being nigh. First to Gold and our two-panel graphic of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. For the bars we’ve put in an arbitrary green box encompassing a reasonable support area for Gold, even as the declining “Baby Blues” of trend consistency become less so. As for the Profile, what had been notable overhead resistance at 2039 has since shifted lower to the now-dominant 2017 level:
Second with the same graphical drill for Silver, her Baby Blues (below left) are poised to cross below that key +80% axis, suggestive of a price run down into the lower 24s. And in her Profile (below right), those denoted lower 25s now show as trading resistance:
‘Course all that said, we’ve this from the “Who’s Next? Dept.” Upon whichever bank next suddenly zooms to the above-the-fold newspaper position shall swiftly send the precious metals back on the upside track, in turn putting the S&P flat on its back. Not that Gold nor Silver need that to happen: the yellow metal (1994) again by the Scoreboard valuation (3793) is presently priced at but 53% that, whilst the S&P 500 by earnings-to-historical value is arguably more than double that.
We’ll thus wrap it for this week with one of our (again updated) all-time favourite Gold Update graphics toward the next All-Time Gold High being nigh!
The Gold Update: No.700 (15 April 2023) – Gold: The Next All-Time High is Nigh
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 700th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 April 2023 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold: The Next All-Time High is Nigh“
When we penned the first edition of the Gold Update 699 Saturdays ago on 21 November 2009 — for whom the sole recipient was one JGS (thank you, mate) — the price of Gold was 1151. Since then, Gold rose to as high as 2089 (+81%) on 07 August 2020, nearly reclaiming that level at 2079 on 08 March 2022 as the RUS/UKR war intensified, and nearly again just this past Thursday at 2063.
But as is Gold’s wont to weaken following geo-political boosts, (the latest being upon Finland’s joining NATO as we detailed a week ago), plus some degree of waning inflation as reported this past week at March’s wholesale, retail and import price paces, the yellow metal, too, sank into week’s end, settling yesterday (Friday) at 2018.
Stirring Gold’s price negativity as well was FedGov Christopher “Up The” Waller’s commenting on Friday from the Lone Star State that inflation “…is still much too high … so monetary policy needs to be tightened further…” Or to reprise Al Gore’s infamous comment from back on the campaign trail in ’92: “…Everything that ought to be down is up. Everything that should be up is down…”
And priced today at 53% of the opening Scoreboard’s debasement value of 3797, Gold ought be up, whilst conversely with the “live” price/earnings ratio at 208% (46.9x) of its lifetime mean of 22.5x times, the S&P 500 ought be down. (Pssst: Can you say “means regression”?) Or perhaps it all “means recession”? More on that eventuality when we get to the Economic Barometer.
But first as entitled, for Gold the next All-Time High is nigh. And as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now five weeks in duration and accelerating upward. Whilst price closed mildly lower (-0.3%) for the week just past, its high of 2063 was the best since that ending 11 March 2022, indeed just 26 points below the 2089 All-Time High. As noted a week ago, we mused were Gold to achieve a new All-Time High coincident with this 700th missive would be brilliant. Nonetheless, we anticipate price’s breaking above 2089 remains on the table during the course of this parabolic Long trend. From here at 2018 to 2089 is a span of 71 points: Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is 64 points; thus in that vacuum, eclipsing 2089 in the new week is a bit out of range. As well, Gold’s most recent week scored a “higher high”, but a “lower close”: since Gold’s establishing the 2089 All-Time High 140 weeks ago, 24 of those have been down weeks incorporating a “higher high”. The average fallout in those cases within the ensuing four weeks is some -65 points, which from today’s 2018 “suggests” 1953, a level not distant from the 02 February dominant high of 1975. Thus we ought not be surprised should Gold retrench a bit into the 1900s, which themselves are structurally supportive and of course well above the current parabolic flip price of 1858:
And by our valuing Gold vis-à-vis its smooth BEGOS line, price is some +59 points “high” per the oscillator in the lower panel of the following graphic; indeed the mid-point between “price” and “value” is at present 1988. So again, a bit more pullback would not be untoward in Gold’s broader drive to a new All-Time High:
And speaking of broader, let’s next review our chart of Gold’s daily closes along with price’s 300-day moving average since the 1900 level was first achieved on 22 August 2011 ‘Twas back then when we specifically wrote of Gold having “gotten ahead of itself”. ‘Course the ensuing fallout was far more than we’d anticipated, price fortunately having since recovered in full. And forward from 2020, there’s that “triple top” which within trader hypotheses is “meant to be broken”, albeit more immediately Gold’s price appears some stretched above the blue average:
“But Gold is garnering more interest these days, right mmb? And congrats on No. 700 by the way…”
Squire, we couldn’t have done it without you: our thanks is beyond words. And you are spot on. For as pointed out in recent missives, today we hear more Gold buzz from non-Gold owners than since we began The Gold Update. “Where is Gold? How can I buy it? Is it too late?” Recall the late, great Richard Russell: “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold.” To which we add our 2¢: the time to consider selling some is when everybody wants it (and ’tis trading up in the five-digits).
Speaking of trading up, one wonders when the S&P 500 shall revert to reasonable valuation, (which given the aforementioned P/E and assuming no growth in the “E” calls for a “correction” in the “P” of -52% … that shan’t be on CNBS, Bloomy nor Foxy). As we oft quip: “Others parrot; we do the math.” And that includes doing the math for the Econ Baro, which in its present state relative to the stock market asserts that bad news is good:
The Baro this past week accounted for 14 incoming metrics of which 10 were worse period-over-period. The only positives of note came in sentiment courtesy of the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” survey, plus improvements for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. But with March’s Retail Sales again shrinking and (assuming you neither eat nor drive) core retail inflation down a pip but still running at nearly a 5% annualized rate, along with backups in both Wholesale and Business Inventories for February, the Baro on balance further eroded. Again, “means recession”?
Hardly eroding having been the price tracks of the precious metals. For even if some normal retrenchment is in the near-term offing, ’tis hard to argue with the following two-panel display featuring the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. However, Gold’s baby blue dots of regression trend consistency have slipped below their +80% axis, another sign of pending corrective activity. And should it be so, surely Sister Silver shall shiver:
And thus to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right). For both metals, price clearly has come off the respective highs recorded in the latter part of this past week. Again as noted a week ago for Gold, there’s that 2039 apex — which indeed was well penetrated to the upside — only to return to now being resistive. As for Sister Silver, ’tis all about holding above 25, albeit the 24s would now seem in store:
To sum it up for No. 700, our precious metals have had a significant run of late. From Gold’s year-to-date low of 1811 on 28 February, today at 2018 ’tis +11%. Similarly for Silver, her year-to-date low was just back on 10 March at 19.95 and today at 25.47 she’s +28% higher: that’s in just 25 trading days! Brava Sister Silver! To be sure some lower prices may ensue, but hardly do we believe these rallies are through.
Finally: our heartfelt BRAVO to all of YOU who across these many years have seen us through. From our direct readership to our re-publishers and those that further disseminate our missives, many, many thanks. On to No. 701 … and may Gold stay Bold as the next All-Time High is nigh!
25 April 2023 – 09:21 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Gold are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Copper and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light-to-moderate. Neither Gold nor Silver have yet to retrench further as we anticipate still they will ahead of the next surge to an All-Time High (above 2089): indeed, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling yesterday below their +80% axis, indicative of lower price levels. For the S&P 500, our MoneyFlow page shows further deterioration both by the weekly and monthly measures; our “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 47.5x. The Econ Baro gets its week going with April’s Consumer Confidence and March’s New Home Sales.
24 April 2023 – 09:14 Central Euro Time
The Bond begins the week at present above today’s Neutral Zone; Silver, Oil and the Spoo are below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update anticipates a new All-Time High is nigh, but that some minor downside play out prior to the next leap higher; by Market Values, Gold finally closed its upside deviation, and in penetrating the smooth valuation line, that’s a notion for a bit further weakness. Of greater concern is the ongoing overvaluation of the S&P 500 along with key Spoo technicals now in the process of crossing to negative. Moreover at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” are falling for every component except the Euro and Swiss Franc. The Econ Baro — at nearly a one-year low — is quiet today ahead of an otherwise fairly busy week.
21 April 2023 – 09:20 Central Euro Time
Except for the Bond and the Spoo, the six other BEGOS Markets are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500’s MoneyFlow was materially affected yesterday by the fall in shares of TSLA, reminding us of the days when AAPL seemed to be the entirety of the S&P, one stock driving the bus. Still, by “textbook technicals”, the S&P is “overbought” for a 15th consecutive session (three weeks), albeit the Spoo’s daily MACD is now poised for a negative cross. Too, yesterday’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro were notably negative, nearly driving the Baro to its lowest oscillative level in a year; (more in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update).
20 April 2023 – 09:15 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility is light. Oil has today traded as low (78.24) as it has since the OPEC+ price gap; too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have provisionally slipped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels; it thus appears the gap down to 75.83 shall close near-term. Also per Market Trends, the Bond’s linear regression has rotated to negative; next to do so looks to be that for Copper. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 47.8x and the yield 1.633%; that for annualized for the U.S 3-month T-Bill is 4.995%. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index, plus March’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (lagging per the Baro) Indicators.
19 April 2023 – 09:14 Central Euro Time
At present, save for the Euro and Spoo, all the other BEGOS Markets are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate. We continue to watch Oil (per yesterday’s comment) as its technicals weaken toward a gap-fill to the 75.83 level. The Bond, per Market Trends, has seen its linear regression trend return to flat; those for the balance of the other Components remain positive, albeit the “Baby Blues” in each case are weakening. As for Market Rhythms, on both a 10-swing test basis and 24-swing test basis, the best of the bunch is Gold’s 2-hr Parabolic study. Late in the RTH session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
18 April 2023 – 11:08 Central Euro Time
As we write we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; still, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light, again as noted yesterday per Market Ranges narrowing. Oil’s daily technicals are showing early signs of weakening: currently priced at 80.45 (June cac), the gap closure to the pre-OPEC+ production cut is to 75.83, should more material selling ensue; too by Market Values (in real-time), Oil’s price shows as 5.10 points “high” above the smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Housing Starts/Permits.
17 April 2023 – 09:10 Central Euro Time
Gold opens the week at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The 700th Edition of The Gold Update anticipates a new All-Time High (above 2089) is nigh, albeit that price being sufficiently stretched at present that more imminently a peek back into the 1900s first is warranted; by Market Values (in real-time), Gold shows as +54 points above its smooth valuation line; too by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” have slipped below their +80% axis, the rule of thumb there being to expect lower levels. And by Market Ranges across the board for all the BEGOS components, “narrowing” is the watchword, notably so for both Oil and the Spoo, both at their tightest EDTRs in at least a year. The Econ Baro looks to April’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 April 2023 – 09:18 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets are quiet ahead of a barrage of Econ Data with eight metrics due, including April’s UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil, and February’s Business Inventories. Only the Euro is outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today. At Market Values, the Bond is matched with its smooth valuation line, as nearly is the Euro; Oil is almost 7 points “high”, the Spoo 74 points “high”, and Gold 96 points “high”. The yellow metal yesterday came to just 25 points away from its All-Time High (of 2089); tomorrow brings our 700th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update.
13 April 2023 – 09:39 Central Euro Time
We have largely recovered from the aforementioned hardware IT issue such that the website’s analytics are basically up to date. At present for the BEGOS Markets, Gold is the sole component outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. By Market Trends, the linear regression trends are firmly positive across the board. But, the S&P 500’s Moneyflow is showing signs of lacking puff: notably our five-day measure is negative; and the Index’s “live” P/E is 46.3x, more than double its lifetime mean. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include March’s PPI.
12 April 2023 – 09:03 Central Euro Time
Apologies as we’ve no material comment for today. We are dealing with a material (however resolvable) hardware IT issue. Note therefore, too, that the website’s analytics have not been updated through yesterday. We’re on the case and look forward to resolution in due course. Many thanks for your ongoing valued interest and patience. …m…
11 April 2023 – 09:19 Central Euro Time
Money on balance is flowing early on into the BEGOS Markets: The Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. Whilst by Market Trends all eight components are in positive linear regression, we’ve “Baby Blues” signaling weakening upside trend consistency for the Bond, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper. Meanwhile by Market Rhythms, the best performer on a 10-test swing basis is Gold’s 15-mn MACD, whilst on a 24-test swing basis ’tis the Euro’s 2-hr. Parabolics. Nothing specific is due today for the Econ Baro with inflation data due through the balance of the week.
10 April 2023 – 09:19 Central Euro Time
Following the abbreviated week, (and ’tis still a holiday on this side of the pond), the BEGOS Markets are in full session: the Bond, Gold and Silver are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the components are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price’s geo-political price pop on Finland joining NATO: in since trading as low as 2004, the majority of that spike has faded, (typically following such pops); still, the CHN/TWN activity, too, is a concern that can re-buoy price. The Euro’s 2-hr. Parabolics lead the consistency tests (24-swing basis); as well the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are provisionally crossing below their +80% axis. The Econ Baro begins its week with February’s Wholesale Inventories.
07 April 2023 – 09:22 Central Euro Time
We’ve an abbreviated session today: Only the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are trading, the former three until 15:15 GMT and the Spoo until 13:15 GMT. This enables these BEGOS Markets components to respond to the StateSide March Payrolls data due at 12:30 GMT. At present, all four of those components are within their Neutral Zones for today; we shall account for today’s activity as part of the Monday, 10 April trade date. For the Econ Baro, along with the employment report we’ve February’s Consumer Credit. Saturday’s 699the edition of The Gold Update shall note price not surprisingly being lackluster following Tuesday’s geo-politically-driven spike, even as the Econ Baro is again weakening.
06 April 2023 – 09:23 Central Euro Time
Similar to the case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (this time above) today’s Neutral Zone; and again, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is notably light. Following Gold’s geo-political spike on Tuesday, price has since lacked additional puff; as regular readers know, price spikes tends to sag following such events. Meanwhile, the Bond has not succumbed as our analytics suggested: by Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” continue to decline, and at Market Values price is (in real-time) better than 5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; however, the daily Parabolics which had signaled Short have since flipped back to Long; thus it remains to be seen if near-term the Bond reached down to our 126 target area, (price now 134). ‘Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro with just the prior’s week’s Jobless Claims. Tomorrow, bourses are closed for Good Friday, however financial commodities shall have an abbreviated session to digest the StateSide Payrolls data.
05 April 2023 – 09:17 Central Euro Time
Copper is the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is very light with respect to the otherwise increasing Market Ranges. Because Gold’s robust move yesterday to as high as 2043 (and again the high thus far today) was geo-politically driven (Finland joining NATO), we’re wary of the typical price retrenchment that follows such events; however technically, the up move was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolic study from Short back to Long; still by Market Values, price shows (in real-time) as 158 points “high”. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s ADP Employment and ISM(Svc) Index, plus February’s Trade Deficit.
04 April 2023 – 09:18 Central Euro Time
Post-OPEC+ Oil has been able to sustain yesterday’s gap-up gain; price at present is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst all the other BEGOS Markets are within same; session volatility is light. The Oil price rise is sufficient that by Market Trends, all eight BEGOS components are now in positive linear regression; this is typical of a receding Dollar which today in the 101s is well down from the year-to-date high in the 105s. Still by Market Values, we’ve fairly extreme deviations for all five primary components: in real-time vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines, the Bond shows as 4.6 points “high”, the Euro as 0.23 points “high”, Gold as 124 points “high” Oil as 4.7 points “high” and the Spoo as 120 points “high”. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Factory Orders. And Q1 Earnings Season is now underway.
03 April 2023 – 09:16 Central Euro Time
OPEC+’s significant production cut announcement gapped Oil up at the open by +5.8%, indeed thus far by as much as +7.9%, (presently +5.1% at 79.56). With the exception of both Copper and the Spoo, all of the other BEGOS Markets are below today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is moderate toward turning robust as the session unfolds. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as the leading performer amongst all the BEGOS components, but that price by Market Values remains stretched, (the daily Parabolics having also flipped to Short), such that some pullback ought be imminent. Following the Econ Baro having dipped last week, it today looks to March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.
31 March 2023 – 11:53 Central Euro Time
As Q1 comes to a close, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper all trading at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, the sole component still in negative regression is Oil even as its rising “Baby Blues” refute the downside consistency with price moving higher these last couple of weeks. The Bond, which produced negative “Baby Blues” and daily Parabolics signals has yet to move substantially in either direction; that pace ought accelerate today with the release of the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for February. Also included for the Econ Baro today are that month’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the Chicago PMI for March.
30 March 2023 – 09:19 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets remain fairly subdued this morning with volatility continuing at a light pace. Still, the S&P’s firm up session yesterday has pushed the P/E to a “live” (futs-adj’d) reading of 47.7x; too, the positive stance of the MoneyFlow has again shown its leading qualities for higher S&P levels despite broad expectations for significantly lower levels: indeed we still sense an S&P to reach sub-3000 as the year unfolds given poor earnings growth and attractive short-term debt yields. The Econ Baro’s metrics today include the final revision to Q4’s GDP.
29 March 2023 – 11:07 Central Euro Time
Gold – the cac volume for which is rolling from April into June – is the sole BEGOS Market at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; above same is the Spoo, and volatility remains light. The Bond issued two negative signals yesterday: the daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short (from the June cac level of 130 11/32), whilst the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis; the mid-126s seem a reasonable target area; too at Market Values, the Bond in real-time shows as nearly four points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve February’s Pending Home Sales.
28 March 2023 – 11:40 Central Euro Time
Following a fairly inactive day for equities, we ‘ve at present the Euro above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst the Swiss Franc and Silver are below same; volatility is again mostly light. By our Market Ranges page, the Bond has been very expansive late, as has Gold, whereas less so have been Copper and Oil. That noted, by Market Trends, both the Bond and Gold are seeing their “Baby Blues” of linear regression trend consistency beginning to roll over to the downside: upon their breaching the +80% levels we’d then expect to see lower prices near-term; again by Market Values, Gold became quite stretched of late and — whilst clearly very cheap by currency debasement — our “live” deviation from the smooth valuation line shows price as 104 points high; should Gold indeed let go further, its Market Profile price supports are 1929, 1923, and 1912; (price is currently 1953). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Consumer Confidence.
27 March 2023 – 09:20 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update acknowledges that although Gold is a bit stretched to the upside via our Market Values page, that nonetheless the near-to-medium term remains firmly bullish, and moreover that Silver has been catching up to Gold (the G/S ratio in decline, albeit still historically high). At Market Trends, the only two BEGOS Markets in negative linear regression are Oil and Copper. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 46.5x. By Market Rhythms, our most consistent study on a 10-swing test basis is Gold’s 1hr. Price Oscillator; on a 24-swing test basis ’tis the Bond’s 30mn. Parabolics. The Econ Baro today is quiet ahead of a moderate week of incoming metrics.
24 March 2023 – 09:19 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Silver are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; below same are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; and session volatility is light-to-moderate. We again stress per our S&P MoneyFlow page that the inFlow is outpacing the actual change in the Index itself, suggestive there still being no “fear” in the market, and that indeed higher Index levels are in the offing, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 46.1x. And at Market Values, the least deviation is by the Spoo at 43 points below its smooth valuation line; for the balance of the Primary BEGOS Markets, the Bond shows as nearly 7 points “high”, the Euro as over 0.02 points “high”, Gold as 151 points “high” and Oil as over 7 points “low”. The Econ Baro closes out its relative inactive week with February’s Durable Orders.
23 March 2023 – 09:34 Central Euro Time
The S&P 500, after responding positively to yesterday’s anticipated +25bp FedFunds rate increase, was then significantly turned back negatively upon the Treasury’s not intending to expand protection for bank depositors. Regardless this morning, the Spoo is trading at present above its Neutral Zone for today, as too are both the Euro and Copper; Silver is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate in the context that Market Ranges have expanded. By Market Rhythms, the two most consistent are the Bond’s 30-minute Parabolics and MACD. Included for the Econ Baro today are February’s New Home Sales and Q4’s Current Account Balance.
22 March 2023 – 09:23 Central Euro Time
Ahead of the Fed, the BEGOS are expectantly quiet, all eight components at present within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility clearly is light. As has much of the FinWorld, we’ve moved our Fed guesstimate for today from +50bp (which was much the rage pre-banking ills) down to +25bp; for the Fed to do otherwise (no change or +50bp) would well set markets into a bit of a panic. At Market Trends, most of the components are in positive linear regression, the expectations being Oil and the Spoo (just barely). Indeed, the S&P’s extreme P/E aside (the “live” futs-adj’d reading now 46.9x), we continue to be impressed (albeit rather perplexed) at the differential between the S&P itself and its far more positive MoneyFlow: and indeed, the Flow being a leading indicator, the Index is holding up quite well in the face of banking illiquidity; indeed post-Fed into week’s end, higher S&P levels wouldn’t surprise us.
21 March 2023 – 09:20 Central Euro Time
Given all the hand-wringing (and legitimately so) over banking illiquidity, ’tis curious to note the S&P 500 is trading ’round where it was upon transiting from February into August, (i.e. it hasn’t materially really gone anywhere). And this morning, the Spoo is quiet; amongst the other BEGOS Markets, only Gold and Silver are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, (see our “Hobson Close” reference in the current edition of The Gold Update), and volatility is mostly light. Notable extremes from our Market Values page include the Bond as some 6 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, Gold as 131 points “high” and Oil as nearly 10 points “low”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s Exiting Home Sales.
20 March 2023 – 09:21 Central Euro Time
With UBS acquiring CS we’ve both the Bond and Gold at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Oil and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update supports price within the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend as being en route to a new All-Time High (above 2089) and the mid-2100s reasonably in range within a few months (if not swiftly) on this run. Yields are coming off on the wake of banking illiquidity: of note, FedFundsFuts (which were above 5%) are now at 4.585% whilst the 3-month T-Bill (after nearly 5%) is down to 4.293%; comparably, the “live” yield (futs-adj’d) on the S&P is 1.737% and the excessively-high P/E is 44.3x. The Econ Baro has a very quiet week ahead with just five incoming metrics due; the week’s highlight is Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement, which given the banking strife may not render the otherwise anticipated +50bp increase.
17 March 2023 – 09:16 Central Euro Time
Save for the Bond and Spoo, the other six BEGOS Markets all are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate within the context that Market Ranges are expanding across the board. Despite the concerns over the banking sector, money continues to pour into the S&P 500, our MoneyFlow page for the quarterly measure suggesting the S&P (now 3960) “ought be” some 500-600 points even higher than ’tis; regardless, such rampant buying has pushed the “live” P/E of the S&P to a fut’s-adj’d 46.7x given, too, the lack of earnings growth; thus to revert to the lifetime mean of 22.6x would be a price correction of worse than -50%. The Econ Baro concludes its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey, along with February’s IndProd/CapUtil and Leading (lagging) Indicators.
16 March 2023 – 09:29 Central Euro Time
The Euro and Swiss Franc both are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Swiss Franc which is vibrant with a 129% EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) as the SNB stands to assist CS. By our S&P MoneyFlow page, “no fear” remains the status: indeed for yesterday, the weakest Flow drain from the S&P was that by TSLA, whilst MSFT, AMZN and AAPL dominated the inflow. Gold appears poised to flip its weekly parabolic Short trend to Long if not by week’s end then in a week’s time, barring a notably down-run. The Econ Baro awaits metrics including March’s Philly Fed Index, plus February’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.
15 March 2023 – 09:29 Central Euro Time
We’ve the Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, quite recently all in negative linear regression, now positive are those for the Bond, Euro (barely), Swiss Franc and Gold. By Market Profiles, Gold has built in trading resistance at 1911. Per Market Rhythms (on a 24-swing test basis) the most consistent study is Gold’s 60-minute Parabolics. And somewhat contrary to mainstream expectations, the S&P has been quite firm in the face of bank insolvencies, throughout which our MoneyFlow as a leading indicator has been fairly positive with lack of fear (as yet) in the balance. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Index, February’s Retail Sales and PPI, and January’s Business Inventories.
14 March 2023 – 09:26 Central Euro Time
The S&P 500 avoided mainstream expectations for a “Monday Massacre”, the Index finishing lower by an insignificant -0.2%; but ’twas certainly rangy, the Spoo itself trading in excess of 200% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). This morning, the Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present above today’s Neutral Zone; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Oil; and volatility is moderate. Going ’round the horn for the five primary components per Market Values, we’ve the Bond as some 5.5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro as 1.6 points “high”, Gold as 62 points “high”, Oil as 2.9 points “low” and the Spoo as 123 points “low”. The Econ Baro looks to February’s CPI.
13 March 2023 – 09:20 Central Euro Time
As the Fed rides in on its white horse to scoop up Silicon Valley Bank’s depositors, the BEGOS Markets are firmly rallying as the Dollar dives toward a one-month low. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Glod, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst only below same is the Bond; volatility is moderate-to-robust, notably with the Bond, Gold and Spoo having already exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update highlights price’s perseverance given the Fed’s notion of not necessarily coming to the Treasury’s rescue upon a default. As for the S&P, the selling last week remained without fear as measured by our MoneyFlow page, the Index indeed barely reaching into “textbook oversold” territory.
10 March 2023 – 09:28 Central Euro Time
Following yesterday’s bank-induced selloff, the Spoo is down further, now below its Neutral Zone for today as are Copper and Oil; above same are the Bond and Swiss Franc, and volatility is already moderate-to-robust; as noted this week, the narrowing of Market Ranges rightly foretold a burst in volatility. At Market Trends, all eight BEGOS Markets are now in negative linear regression. At Market Rhythms (10-swing test basis), both Silver’s 2hr. Moneyflow and Copper’s 30mn Moneyflow are the leaders. And for the Econ Baro we receive February’s Jobs data and Treasury Budget.
09 March 2023 – 09:22 Central Euro Time
The relatively quiet morning trading continues, at present Copper being the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility is again light. Again we emphasize by our Market Ranges pages just how narrow they’ve become of late, suggestive of volatility suddenly increasing: a catalyst there may well be the Fed returning to rate increases of +50bp come their 22 March Policy Statement, (something to which we first stated in The Gold Update back on 04 February). And as Market Ranges narrow, so do components’ prices come more into line with their Market Values: per that page for five primary BEGOS Markets, only Gold seems a bit far afield of its smooth valuation line (price in real-time -46 points low). As for the mounting Gold/Silver ratio, ’tis now 90.6x: more graphically on that in this next Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update. As for Market Rhythms, the most consistent study (24-swing test basis) has been the Spoo’s 60-minute Moneyflow.
08 March 2023 – 09:21 Central Euro Time
Save for the Bond (and the Dollar), the BEGOS Markets sold off rather substantially yesterday as the Fed looks to keep pressure on rate raises; (FedChair Powell’s second day of Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony is today). This morning however, all eight BEGOS components are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is thus far light. At Market Ranges, their recent narrowing is clearly noticeable, perhaps leading toward more volatility in the offing. Copper’s linear regression (see Market Trends) has rotated back to negative, leaving Oil as the sole component with a positive (barely) trend. The “live” P/E of the S&P is 41.2x and the yield is 1.690%; (that annualized for the 3-month T-Bill is 4.845%). The Econ Baro looks to February’s ADP Jobs data and January’s Trade Deficit. Late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
07 March 2023 – 09:22 Central Euro Time
‘Tis again a quiet start for the BEGOS Markets: Only Copper at present is outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility remains light. Contract trading volume yesterday across the components was notably low. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” for both the Swiss Franc and the Spoo moved above their respective -80% axes, suggestive of higher price levels near-term; indeed the Blues are rising across all eight of the BEGOS components in concert with the Dollar perhaps losing some near-term ground as noted in the current edition of The Gold Update. For the Econ Baro today we’ve January’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit. And FedChair Powell begins his two-day Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.
06 March 2023 – 09:12 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is beginning the week light. The Gold Update makes mention of the Dollar technically to see some near-term weakness; but the overriding point is there being more contract volume being traded for Gold’s recent up move than for its prior move down. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded with an overall cap-weighted gain for the reporting S&P 500 constituents of +2.7%, (clearly lacking the pace of inflation). At this fut’s-adj’d writing, the “live” P/E of the S&P is now 43.2x, evident of lackluster earnings. At Market Trends, both Copper and Oil are now in positive linear regression. And the Econ Baro starts its week with January’s Factory Orders.
03 March 2023 – 09:47 Central Euro Time
In reversal from this time yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are higher, with two (Oil and the Spoo) not at present above their Neutral Zone; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is teasing the top of its 1851-1798 support zone. The S&P 500 yesterday unwound its near-term “textbook oversold” condition; our MoneyFlow page for the S&P by both the monthly and quarterly measures suggests higher Index levels; however this can swiftly reverse upon substantive selling of the largest-cap components; (indeed the daily measure already has reversed to negative). The Econ Baro wraps up its week with February’s ISM(Svc) Index.
02 March 2023 – 09:22 Central Euro Time
All eight BEGOS Markets are in the red, and six at present (save for Gold and Oil) are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate. Gold’s high thus far this session (1845) is also its most dominantly traded price of the last two weeks, (see Market Profiles); trading supports show as both 1834 and 1818, (all within the overall 1851-1798 support zone). Even as the S&P 500 slips away, the “live” P/E (fut’s adj’d) is 39.1; of note, the Index is entering its fifth day as “textbook oversold”. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include the revision to Q4 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
01 March 2023 – 09:18 Central Euro Time
The Bond is at present below today’s Neutral zone, whilst above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; volatility already is moderate-to-robust as March begins. Gold, which by Market Values is some -50 points below its smooth valuation line, appears to be getting a bit of a grip within its overall 1851-1798 support zone, (price currently 1841); the other four primary BEGOS Markets are relatively near their respective Market Value lines. The S&P 500 is becoming mildly textbook oversold: we expect lower levels still to ensue near-term, however the MoneyFlow has been upside robust of late. Today for the Econ Baro we’ve February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.
28 February 2023 – 09:38 Central Euro Time
Following a rather “failed rally” yesterday for equities (the S&P having been +1.2% intraday only to finish +0.3%) we’ve the Spoo working lower still; both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present below their Neutral Zones for today, whilst Oil is above same; session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” remain in swift decline for both the Swiss Franc and the Spoo; the trends of all eight BEGOS Markets remain negative. And at Market Values, the price of the Spoo has just penetrated beneath its smooth valuation line, suggestive of still lower levels. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.
27 February 2023 – 09:18 Central Euro Time
“Quiet” is the word best describing the beginning of the week for the BEGOS Markets, all eight components at present inside of their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is mostly light, Silver being the sole component thus far having traded in excess of 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update (referring to both Gold and Silver as a “bargain”) looks for the 1851-1798 support zone to hold, whilst acknowledging the low 1700s represent the average downside points follow-though for Short parabolic weekly trends in recent years. For the S&P 500, “sell into strength” would seem ongoing pattern as we enter this final week of Q4 Earnings Season. The Econ Baro today receives January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.
24 February 2023 – 09:25 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility continues light per this time of day. Gold yesterday hit a year-to-date low at 1825 as the weekly parabolic Short trend moves along with its course; again the support zone is 1851-1798; Gold by Market Values is -71 points below its smooth valuation line. As for both Silver and Copper, their cac volumes are moving from March into May, (and that for the Bond from March into June). The S&P yesterday averted a fifth consecutive down day; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall, the linear regression trend as noted having only just turned negative; still the Index’s MoneyFlow has been a net gainer, evidence that “fear” has yet to set in. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for January comes into the Econ Baro today, other metrics for the month including Personal Income/Spending and New Home Sales.
23 February 2023 – 09:15 Central Euro Time
‘Tis fairly quiet across the BEGOS Markets with only Copper outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, as anticipated the Spoo’s linear regression has rotated to negative: thus all eight components are now in descending trends as the Dollar pushes upward into its highs which began the year. By Market Rhythms, the Spoo’s 2-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short: typical price follow-through would be a run down to 3950; ‘course that can be further exacerbated by the daily MACD, Moneyflow and Parabolic all having just recently gone Short as well. And for the Econ Baro we’ve the 2nd read of Q4, the consensus for which is the same +2.9% annualized rate initially reported, (even as the Econ Baro declined on Q4 metrics).
22 February 2023 – 09:24 Central Euro Time
Yesterday’s early leaders are today’s early losers, both Copper and Oil at present below their respective Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s MoneyFlow decline was on par with that for the S&P itself, however there has yet to be substantive “fear” in the selling to this point; as noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linear regression trend whilst still positive has nearly rotated to negative (see Market Trends) which could induce more fear-oriented selling near-term. Too, the yield on the S&P 500 is now 1.695% vs. that for the 3-month T-Bill of 4.688%. As for Gold, despite further geo-political stirrings, price remains content in dealing with the 1851-1798 support zone, even as Friday’s 1st RUS/UKR war anniversary approaches; and as oft pointed out, geo-political Gold price spikes tend to wane in full shortly thereafter.