Mark

Gold, Silver and the Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil: the latter’s cac volume has rolled from October into that for November with a discount of -4.60 points. Session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Gold (currently 4433) can end its three-down-weeks’ streak with a settle today above 4390 such that the ongoing weekly parabolic Long trend would still have some breathing room: more tomorrow in the 879th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The P/E of the S&P 500 is at a (futs-adj’d) stratospheric 69.1x, although eliminating CRWD from the Index reduces that to “only” 45.1x; (too, S&P shall rebalance the Index prior to Monday’s opening in welcoming three new constituents with three being removed). For the Econ Baro today we’ve August’s IndProd/CapUtil, plus the month’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The FOMC rightly raised its Bank’s Funds Rate, the vote unanimous even as our notion was they’d perhaps wait for the August “Fed-favoured” PCE data (due 30 September). So now “post-Fed” we’ve at present seven of the eight BEGOS Markets above today’s Neutral Zones, the sole component below same being Oil as ’tis “said” the USA/IRN war may be winding down; session volatility is moderate. In going ’round the horn for the five primary BEGOS Markets in real-time we’ve: the Bond -4^22 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.033 points “low”, Gold -183 points “low”, Oil +16.04 points “high”, and the Spoo -201 points “low”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include September’s Philly Fed Index, plus August’s Housing Starts/Permits and Pending Home Sales.

Currently, we’ve both Gold and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. As to correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is still positive between Gold and the Spoo. Our Top Three best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 15mn Parabolics, the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow and Gold’s 30mn MACD, whereas (on a 24-test basis) they are Oil’s 6hr Parabolics, again the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 6hr MACD. The Econ Baro looks to September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus July’s Business Inventories. The FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT) is widely expected to see the FedFunds interest rate target range raised from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%: we’ve been on record for some two years that it need be raised, however The Gold Update states the Committee shall stand pat pending August’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data due 30 September. Either way, expect extreme post-Statement volatility into the balance of the session.

Cac volume for the Spoo has rolled from September into that for December with +67 points of premium; the Spoo at present (7672) is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc; Oil is above same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominant overhead resistor (basis December) is 7711, and price has fallen back beneath its Market Magnet; the Spoo’s best current Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 15mn Moneyflow. As widely reported, the 10yr-T-Note yield returned to 5.000% for the first time since 20 July 2007, following which from October the S&P 500 embarked on the second of two -50% corrections century-to-date. The Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.

Not surprisingly, given the Saudi pipeline disruption, Oil gapped up to the commence the session and is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst the Spoo gapped down and is below its Neutral Zone as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, the Euro notably having traced 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to the weekly parabolic trend as still Long, but that it may be in jeopardy by month’s end should the Dollar be getting the bid to purchase Oil. By Market Trends, six of the eight BEGOS components are now in negative linreg, the two positive exceptions being (of course) Oil and (barely) Copper. Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics, or if seeking a profit target, the 12-Hour MACD which achieved at least 35 full points (both Long and Short) through nine of the past ten crossovers beginning back on 06 May. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with 15 metrics scheduled into the balance of the week. The FOMC Policy Statement comes Wednesday: we reason in The Gold Update “no change” albeit consensus (and rightly so) is for a 25bp FedFunds rate hike.

Into the 25th anniversary of “9/11” we’ve Gold, Copper and the Spoo all at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s falling “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed the linreg’s rotation from positive to negative; price appears poised to record a third straight down week within the overall weekly parabolic Long trend: more on that in tomorrow’s 878th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s -4.8% net loss yesterday ranks third-worst year-to-date; Silver’s drop of -5.7% was its worst day since 24 June (-6.73%). The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 61.4x, albeit removing CRWD reduces that to “only” 44.3x, (still triple that taught as “high” in portfolio theory); and the “risk-full” yield is 1.097% vs. the “risk-less” 4.280% on the 1yr T-Bill. The Econ Baro looks to August’s CPI and Treasury Budget, as well as September’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

Both the Swiss Franc and Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. Yesterday, each of the Euro, Gold and Silver moved above their most volume-dominant Market Profile resistors, albeit the Bond dropped below that which had been support. Such noted, Gold in real-time (as anticipated earlier this week) finds its 21-day linreg having rotated to negative (see Market Trends); that for Silver, the Euro and Swiss Franc remain only marginally positive, even as the Dollar has been weakening across the last several trading days; and over these next two trading days, cac volume for the Currencies shall be moving from September into that for December. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s PPI and Existing Home Sales, plus July’s Wholesale Inventories.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday moved back above their Market Magnets, suggestive of higher levels near-term; moving below its Magnet was the Spoo, its next volume-dominant supporter being 7644 should 7681 fall away into a down day, (see Market Profiles). Gold and the Spoo continue to maintain our best correlation (positive) amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Gold’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its daily price Oscillator and (on a 24-test basis) its 6hr MACD; for the Spoo ’tis the 2hr Parabolics by both bases. Ahead of inflation data both tomorrow and Friday, nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, now with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are both Gold and the Spoo, and overall session volatility has expanded to mostly robust. In going ’round the horn of the five primary BEGOS components by their Market Values, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^20 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.017 points “low”, Gold +63 points “high”, Oil +9.85 points “high” and the Spoo -130 points “low”. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue dropping for both Gold and Silver, albeit not (yet) below their 0% axes: recall for Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend we’re seeking 4900, the high thus far being 4755 prior to the more recent selling, (price now 4447, yet only mildly lower for the week thus far). Late in the session comes July’s Consumer Credit for the Econ Baro.

‘Tis a two-day Tuesday-settlement session for the BEGOS Markets; given the StateSide holiday, trading halts begin today from 17:00 GMT (with resumption as usual at 22:00 GMT). At present, Oil is above the session’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Gold; volatility is expectedly light. The Gold Update suggests should price put in a third consecutive down week that the weekly parabolic Long trend may soon be approaching an end, (although for this week, a flip to Short were 4074 to trade is well out of expected range); currently 4441, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 4482; too in real-time, price is +60 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and by Market Trends, we may see Gold’s 21-day linreg rotate to negative by week’s end. ‘Tis “inflation week” for the Econ Baro, the August PPI due Thursday and the CPI come Friday.

The Spoo is presently the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. Support has held well for the precious metals this week; that stated, by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver as their respective uptrends weaken; more tomorrow, of course, in the 877th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a firm day across all eight BEGOS Markets: of note therein with respect to Market Profiles, each of the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo moved above what been their most volume-dominant overhead resistors; too, the Spoo recovered above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro raps its week with August’s Payrolls data as StateSide stocks move into the Labor Day Weekend, (the BEGOS Markets nonetheless trading an abbreviated Monday session for Tuesday settlement).

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. By Market Rhythms, our Top Three for pure swing consistency are (on the 10-test run) the Bond’s 4hr Parabolics, Oil’s 1hr Parabolics, and Gold’s daily Moneyflow; too, (on the 24-test run) are Gold’s 1hr Moneyflow, Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and Copper’s 1hr MACD. The Spoo yesterday made another marginal one-month low at 7619: currently 7675, there is volume-dominant Market Profile support at 7644, with resistance running from 7686 up to 7698; and by its BEGOS Market Value, the Spoo is (in real-time) -129 points below its smooth valuation line (itself 7805). Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s ISM(Svc) Index, July’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation is positive between Gold and the Spoo; the latter yesterday moved beneath its Market Profile volume-dominant support of 7698, falling further to 7622, a one-month low. Opposingly, the 3mo T-Bill’s annualized yield reach a one-month high of 3.778%; (that for the S&P 500 is 1.094%). Also yesterday, both the Bond and Copper slipped beneath their respective Market Magnets, indicative of still lower price levels near-term. By Market Trends, Oil is the sole component for which the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are rising. The Econ Baro looks to August’s ADP Employment data and July’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Our notion a month ago of the Bond reaching up to 112 never materialized in this rather confusing wake of the Bessent/Warsh indicatives: price reached no higher than 110^16 and currently is 108^10, which by its BEGOS Market Value is (in real-time) -3^23 points below its smooth valuation line (itself at 112^01); too, the Bond yesterday fell below is volume-dominant Market Profile support of 109^16; the Bond’s best market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the 4hr Parabolics; on the 24-test basis ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; the underlying product’s yield is 5.249%. For the Econ Baro we’ve August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.

Both Copper and Oil are starting the week at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the Spoo is below same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. The Gold Update sees price’s weekly parabolic Long trend as firm, albeit we point to some near-term anticipated weakness: already today for both Gold and Silver, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) have dropped below their respective +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels; Gold’s support zone spans from 4509 down to 4366, and that for Silver from 66.98 down to 62.45; Gold by its BEGOS Market Value, (in real-time) is +255 points above the smooth valuation line. As well, we are entering (not predicting) “Crash Season” for the S&P 500, (see The Gold Update). Too, in having rebalanced the S&P’s shares, our “live” P/E is again above 60x (futs-adj’d 61.4x at this instant). The Econ Baro has nothing due today, with 13 incoming metrics through the balance of the week.

Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility for the session is again light. Yesterday, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed having slipped below their key +80% axis: currently 1.1655, we’d watch for the Euro to test near-term the underlying 1.1628-1.1580 zone. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three currently are (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s daily Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Copper’s 2hr Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) they are Copper’s 15mn Parabolics and both Oil’s 15mn Parabolics and 6hr Parabolics. Gold is mildly net down for the week, although very comfortably within its recently established weekly parabolic Long trend: more tomorrow in the 876th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with August’s Chi PMI and the usual revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey. And FedChair Warsh makes the annual KC Fed address in Jackson Hole.

Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Both the Swiss Franc and Copper have slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Cac volumes are rolling today from September into December for both the Bond (at a -0^16 discount) and Silver (at at +0.800 premium) . By Market Values (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond (basis December) is -2^18 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold +441 points “high”, Oil -2.11 points “low” and the Spoo -22 points “low”. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 42.8x and the yield 1.085%, whereas that for the one-year T-Bill is 4.010%. The sole metric today for the Econ Baro is the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

The Euro and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Copper: the latter’s cac volume is rolling today from September into December (with a +0.1000 premium); session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Copper yesterday broke above volume-dominant Market Profile support at 6.7100 (basis December, price currently 6.8610). Following our bearish bias yesterday for Oil, price has since notably dropped from 84.22 (at our post) to as low as 80.08, essentially through the stated structural support zone; price also has passed below its BEGOS Market Value, below what had been volume-dominant support at 8230, and down through the Market Magnet of 83.88. For the Spoo, its price compression is evident by having traced a full EDTR (see Market Ranges) but once across the past three weeks, even as the EDTR has declined during that period from 107 to 65 for today. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro encompassing the first revision to Q2 GDP, plus Durable Orders for July along with Personal Income/Spending and the month’s “Fed-Favoured” PCE data.

Oil is presently below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is the Spoo; amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, those two continue to have the best correlation, which is negative; overall session volatility is moderate. Oil (84.22) yesterday slipped beneath its most volume-dominant Market Profile support level of 85.00, and in real-time Oil’s 12hr MACD (which is its best Market Rhythm per our Oil page) is crossing to negative: the last five such Short crossovers have each minimally produced (given hindsight) downside profit of $4k/cac within an average duration of some three weeks; structural support for Oil appears to run from 84.61 to 80.09; still, Oil’s 21-day linreg remains positive with its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency rising, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits August’s Consumer Confidence and July’s New Home Sales.

The week begins finding at present both the Bond and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update accounts for price’s push given the StateSide Treasury’s accelerating longer-term debt repurchasing; today’s high thus far of 4717 is Gold’s best level since14 May. Q2 Earnings Season has concluded finding 79% of reporting S&P 500 constituents having beaten their Q2 bottom lines of a year ago: that ranks second-best across the past 12 reporting quarters; the fly in the ointment remains the “live” P/E of 43.1x suggestive of at least a -40% “correction” simply to bring valuation into reasonable line with earnings. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics scheduled through the balance of the week.

The Euro plus the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session again is light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, our best current correlation continues between Oil and the Spoo as negative; Oil’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics whilst for the Spoo ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; and the Spoo has slipped below its BEGOS Market Value for the first time since 31 July, suggestive of lower prices near-term: structural support for the Spoo spans from 7632 to 7324. Gold (4622) is up to its highest level since 29 May: more tomorrow in the 875th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; and ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.

At present, we’ve both the Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s StateSide Treasury notification toward buying back longer-term maturities gave significant boosts to the currencies and metals: specifically for Gold, in real-time ’tis trading +390 points above its BEGOS Market Value; such prior extreme was in the run to last January’s record high (5586), after which price fell considerably over the ensuing months, (not that we envision a like pullback this time ’round); that said, some retrenchment whilst still maintaining the new broader weekly parabolic Long trend would be reasonable to expect, especially with indications of the war being extended such that Oil brings a bid again for the Dollar. The Econ Baro concludes its week today (Thursday) with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index, plus July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index.

The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms, leading the pack for pure swing consistency is the Spoo’s 30mn MACD: its last 10 crossings (since 11 August) have yielded an intra-signal max profit/max adversity ratio of 5.5x. Gold, having reached well-above its BEGOS Market Value after being better than +300 points (now +234 in real-time), reverted yesterday such as to fall below its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 4450 as well as slip below its Market Magnet of 4393; such reversion is normal, and moreover, the new weekly parabolic Long trend remains well intact, the “out-of-range” 3955 level being this week’s reversal price. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, although the FOMC’s Minutes from its 28/29 July meeting come due late in the session: because the actual Policy Statements under FedHead Warsh are comparably brief, the Minutes take on more scrutiny than in prior years.

The Bond, Euro, Silver, Copper and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Bond has not risen toward our 112 notion as rising yield desires continue to pressure price: we’ll continue to mind the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency there; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm currently is (10-test basis) the 30mn Parabolics and (24-test basis) the 1hr MACD. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for all five primary BEGOS components we’ve: the Bond showing as -4^27 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as +297 points “high”, Oil as +4.97 points “high” and the Spoo as +55 points “high”. Today the Econ Baro receives a bevy of July reports encompassing Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil, and Pending Home Sales.

We’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Spoo all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, noting therein that Copper already has traced 100% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Updates states “Still Higher Gold Ahead” given the weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short back to Long with potentially the 4900s in the balance on this run; but that could well get nixed should the USA/IRN war remain unresolved, (Oil and thus the Dollar then getting the bid). Our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency at this point are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 30mn Parabolics and both Gold’s daily Moneyflow and daily Price Oscillator; also (on a 24-test basis) they are the 1hr Parabolics for both the Euro and Silver, plus the Bond’s 1hr MACD. The Econ Baro’s scheduled 12 incoming metrics for this week begin with the NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices. And this is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season.

The Bond is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. As recently noted, we’re looking for the Bond (109^13) to rise toward 112 as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency cleared their -80% axis (see Market Trends) and indeed continue to rise as price’s downtrend becomes less negative: with inflation somewhat cooling, the Bond can get the bid. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^24 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (itself at 113^05), the Euro -0.011 points “low”, Gold +234 points “high”, Oil +2.39 points “high”, and the Spoo +151 points “high”. Tomorrow’s 874th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall underscore the weekly parabolic Short trend having (after 21 weeks) flipped to Long. The Econ Baro concludes the week with August’s UofM Sentiment Survey, July’s Retail Sales, plus June’s Business Inventories. And we’ve one week remaining in Q2 Earnings Season.

Presently, we’ve both the Bond and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Spoo for better than a week has been in a relatively compressed trading range: indeed the EDTR (see Market Ranges) is narrowing, (85 points being today’s expected range, even as the widest actual span so far this week has been but 58 points). For the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower price levels near-term, albeit there is no noticeable breakdown in their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). And today brings wholesale inflation for the Econ Baro via July’s PPI.

The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light. Gold’s weekly Parabolics — following a 21-week run on the Short side — have provisionally flipped to Long, although more immediately (even as price is up today) the 30mn MACD is crossing to negative. Copper is flirting either side of its most volume-dominant Market Profile price of the past fortnight, 6.635; by Market Trends, Copper’s 21-day linreg has been positive, even as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency slipped below their key +80% axis back on 24 July; Copper’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been the 4hr Parabolics. July’s inflation puzzle begins today as the Econ Baro awaits July’s CPI; then due later in the session is the month’s Treasury Budget.

Note –> We experienced a significant processing issue in the overnight work such that much of the BEGOS Markets’ graphics information (both internally as well as externally on the website) is flawed; we shall endeavour to have it all corrected and back to pin-point accuracy prior to tonight’s data runs. As for the moment: the Bond, Gold and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility again is mostly light. Our Market Rhythms fortunately being intact, the Top Three for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, Gold’s daily Moneyflow and the Euro’s 15mn Price Oscillator; too (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Bond’s 1hr Moneyflow, and both Gold’s 2hr MACD and 30mn MACD. The Econ Baro awaits July’s Existing Home Sales. Update –> All data and website graphics fully-restored as of 10:23 CET. (For those of you who visited the website in the interim, thank you for your valued interest and patience).

Silver, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update sees a near-term 4000 floor as having been established, supported by the upside Market Value crossover of price above its smooth valuation line and the rotation of the 21-day linreg trend from negative to positive; however, further warring activities would likely again give the Dollar a bid, which has played negatively for Gold. The Bond on Friday moved above what had been Market Profile resistance at 109^12, (price presently 109^18); again as the downtrend becomes less so per the “Baby Blues” rising (see Market Trends), we may see 112. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics for the week’s balance. And two weeks remain in Q2 Earnings Season.

Presently, both Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold appears to have finally found its 4000s’ floor at least for the near-term: more of course in tomorrow’s 873rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 continues to be buoyed by “AI” hype and overall earnings improvement: now five weeks into Q2 Earnings Season, 78% of the 418 constituents having thus far reported bettered their bottom lines over the like quarter a year ago; regardless, the excessively high (understatement) “live” futs-adj’d P/E is 41.5x and the wee yield 1.084%; (the 3mo T-Bill currently yields an annualized 3.732%). For the Econ Baro we’ve the Payrolls’ data for July, plus late in the session June’s Consumer Credit.

Copper is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; otherwise, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. By Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency confirmed having moved above their key -80% axis, indicative of higher prices near-term: currently 110 even, we could see 112 tapped on an up run; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) the 2hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) the 1hr Moneyflow; the BEGOS Market Value for the Bond is (in real-time) 113^11, so there is room to also revert up toward that smooth valuation line. Both Gold and Silver recorded net gains yesterday of +4.2%: for Gold, ’twas its fourth-best daily net gain year-to-date, and for Silver ’twas 21st-best. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s Wholesale Inventories and Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Yesterday’s +1.8% straight-up gain in the S&P 500 would be — back in the day — referred to as a “blow-off top”, albeit the Spoo at this instant is poised for a further +0.4% S&P opening gap. At present, the Spoo is above its Neutral Zone for today, as are the Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light, save for the precious metals of which Gold has traced 136% of its EDTR and Silver 98% (see Market Ranges). Gold (4233, +2.4%) has in real-time provisionally crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 11 March and — as we’ve be anticipating for some two weeks — its 21-day linreg has rotated to positive, as has provisionally that for Silver. Thus, ‘twould appear that our sought 4000 floor for Gold is forming. For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index.

By the Spoo, were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be spot on 7621, the all-time high established back on 03 June. At present, the Spoo along with Silver, Copper and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Bond; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Spoo yesterday crossed back above its Market Value: in real-time, the Spoo is +42 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; by the same measure for the other four primary BEGOS components, the Bond is -4^12 points “low”, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold -37 points “low” and Oil +5.31 points “high”. The “live” P/E of this S&P at this futs-adj’d record high is 41.2x and the yield 1.087%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.700%. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.

With the war yet again “on hold”, the BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) are benefitting: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update sees price as still working to form a 4000s’ floor, albeit the broader technical picture has weakened such that a revisit of the 3500s wouldn’t be untoward, especially should the war re-accelerate with Oil and the Dollar then again getting the bid. Our recent anticipation of Gold and Silver having their respective linregs (see Market Trends) rotate from negative to positive has yet to occur, although the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising and nearing the 0% axis for both metals. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro of 15 incoming metrics, beginning today with July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

Into month’s end, we’ve both the Bond and Spoo at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; BEGOS Market’s session volatility is mostly moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation we currently have is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Even as Gold is lower today — and excluding the fresh +60 points of December cac premium — price “appears” en route to a second consecutive up week for the first time since that ending 17 April: more of course in tomorrow’s 872nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with July’s Chi PMI and revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index. And through now better than half of Q2 Earnings Season, 79% of S&P 500 constituents have thus far beaten their-over-year bottom lines, a well-above average improvement pace, (albeit the “live” [futs-adj’d] P/E of the S&P is an unsustainably high 41.7x).

As anticipated, the Fed stood pat on its Funds rate, albeit we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise: today’s PCE data for June shall complete the month’s inflation puzzle. At present, we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. To be taken with a grain of salt given the ways of the war, Oil’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) have dropped beneath the key +80 axis, normally suggestive of lower prices; too by Market Values, Oil is (in real-time) +10.26 points above its smooth valuation line. In addition the PCE, ’tis a heavy-weight day for the Econ Baro, other incoming metrics including June’s Personal Income/Spending and the first peek at Q2 GDP.

Gold’s cac volume is making its annual four-month leap from August to December with 60 points of fresh premium; whilst marginally material, we bear in mind that Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points, (i.e. the premium is less than one day’s trading range). Presently, we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is moderate. Yesterday, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate moved beneath their Market Magnets, suggestive of further near-term selling even as Gold and Silver are getting a bid thus far today, (Copper is mildly lower). The economic event of the day is the FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT): we expect no change in the Funds rate as recently inflation has cooled such as to give the Fed some breathing room, even as 12-month summations remain above target; of note, June’s PCE data is not due until tomorrow, (i.e. post-Fed).

Following yesterday’s S&P 500 “failure day”, the Spoo at present is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are Oil and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is again mostly moderate. The Spoo yesterday settled beneath its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 09 April, suggestive of still lower prices; too by Market Trends, as anticipated, the Spoo’s linreg has (in real-time) rotated to negative; however those for both Gold and Silver remain negative. Seven of the eight BEGOS components today (save for the Bond) are seeing their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency dropping. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 41.7x and the yield 1.124%; that for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.797%. And the Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.

The war again on pause is bullish for most of the BEGOS Markets in starting the week: six of the eight components are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same and Copper within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update is suggestive of the yellow metal finding a floor toward staying above 4000: currently 4098, Gold’s smooth valuation line (in real-time) is 4156 (see Market Values). Copper on Friday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropping beneath the key +80% axis (see Market Trends): thus the red metal’s trend remains up, but is weakening. As the week unfolds, we’ll be watching for the linregs of the precious metals rotating to positive and that for the Spoo to negative, even as the latter is quite firm thus far today. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders. The FOMC’s Policy Statement comes Wednesday prior to the “Fed-favoured” PCE data on Thursday.

Oil per last Monday’s comment reached (and then some) our Market Values target of 86 on Wednesday, trading yesterday to as high as 93.50; price today is at present below its Neutral Zone, as is that for Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold intraweek had gained as much as +3.7%, although that essentially has since entirely evaporated: more of course in tomorrow’s 871st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; too, our suggestion by Market Trends of the precious metals’ linregs rotating to positive shan’t pan out by today, although an ensuing up week could elicit such rotation. But inclusive of Copper, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate yesterday dropped beneath volume-dominant Market Profile support and saw their Market Magnets penetrated to the downside. The Econ Baro concludes a basically inactive week with June’s New Home Sales. And as the third week of Q2 Earnings Season finishes, for the S&P 500’s 112 constituents having thus far reported, 85% have bettered their year-over-year bottom lines, albeit the “live” (fut’s adj’d) P/E at this instant is an extremely high 43.1x and the paltry yield but 1.131%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is now 3.800%.

The Euro and Oil are both at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again mostly light. Gold (in real-time 4127) is -24 points beneath its BEGOS Market Value of 4151: as suggested in recent writings, eclipsing the Market Value ought set the run for 4300-4400; too (as noted yesterday), the precious metals may be in positive linreg by the weekend per the Market Trends page. On the opposite end of the Market Values spectrum, the Bond yesterday confirmed crossing below its smooth valuation line (110^18) to now 110 even: thus price perhaps is en route to re-testing the 20 May low of 108^31. The sole incoming metric today for the Econ Baro is the usual Thursday report of Initial Jobs Claims from the prior week.