The Euro plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again mostly moderate, the notably exception still being Copper having already traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold has been getting some grip, certainly so today, as is Silver, which relative to the yellow metal had been falling behind the norm: more tomorrow in the 882nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday, the Bond — at least for the moment — reversed course to the upside, notably clearing volume-dominant Market Profile resistance at 102^22, (the current trade is at 102^27); for Market Rhythm pure swing consistency, mind the Bond’s 15mn Moneyflow. The Dollar Index having been above 102 during the week is retreating a bit today (currently 101.865). Per the S&P 500 MoneyFlow page, we are seeing wrinkle of weakness. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with October’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
Mark
08 October 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market is mostly moderate, Copper exceptionally having already traded 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Top Three on 10-test basis are to date both Gold’s daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr MACD; for the 24-test basis they are both Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and 15mn Moneyflow, plus the Yen’s 4hr MACD. The risk-full yield of the S&P 500 is 1.070% vs. the risk-less yield of the 1yr T-Bill’s 4.420%. The Gold/Silver ratio now at 69.9x is the highest level since 03 August: Gold is attempting to gain grip, whereas Silver keeps slipping away, even as Copper is firming. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Wholesale Inventories.
07 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
As mused yesterday given its potential trading range, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high at 7845: the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 79.2x (or ex-CRWD ’tis 49.0x). Presently, we’ve yet again both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, as too are the Bond, Gold, Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time): the Bond -5^19 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.026 points “low”, Gold -274 points “low”, Oil -1.61 points “low” and the Spoo +235 points “high”. Late in the session is the release of the FOMC Minutes from the 15/16 September meeting, plus for the Econ Baro, August’s Consumer Credit.
06 October 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
As we saw ’round this time yesterday, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are again below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Our best Market Rhythms for the Euro are the daily Price Oscillator and 2hr Moneyflow; for the Franc, they are the daily EMA and 2hr MACD. Oil yesterday slipped below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 92.90, and price slipped below its Market Magnet of 92.04, currently 88.78 is trading; our best Market Rhythms for Oil are the daily Parabolics and 8hr MACD. The all-time high for the S&P 500 remains that at 7817 from 13 August: however that is coming within range, as by Fair Value at this instant, the S&P would gap higher to 7794. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Trade Deficit.
05 October 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Into the new week we’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust, notably so for the Euro in having already traced 171% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) ’tis said due to inflation and French fiscal concerns. The Gold Update confirms price’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped to Short, yet not much downside is anticipated in eyeing 4000 as “The Floor”; currently 4180 is trading; again, Gold’s key Market Rhythms to mind are both the Price Oscillator and Parabolics on the daily chart. The S&P 500 MoneyFlow page is evidence of just how much dough is being thrown into the large-cap constituents. For the Econ Baro we’ve September’s ISM(Svc) Index. And Q3 Earnings Season gets underway through 20 November.
The Gold Update: No. 881 – (03 October 2026) – “Our Key Gold Trend Flips Short; Yet ‘The Floor’ of 4000 Is Support”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 881st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 October 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Our Key Gold Trend Flips Short; Yet ‘The Floor’ of 4000 Is Support“
Having opened last week’s piece (“Still Lower Gold Ahead”) with “We honestly hope we’re wrong about this…”, unfortunately we were right. Barely had the ink from our Chinese-lacquered S.T. Dupont Gold-tipped fountain pen dried upon the final draft being submitted for publication, that the trading week commenced with Gold falling like a stone on Monday alone from 4321 to what would hold as the week’s low at 4143. Regardless, ’twas a single session intra-day loss of -178 points, (or -4.1%, eighth-worst year-to-date), as rather reluctantly read ahead by The Gold Update.
Followed came Tuesday’s Prescient Commentary stating “Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short”, as further confirmed by yesterday’s (Friday’s) settle at 4172. ‘Twas not a beautiful thAng, but as you regular readers know, the flip had already been brewing through recent weeks. Here are the year-over-year weekly bars featuring the rightmost first red dot as encircled of the new parabolic Short trend:
“But what about the support at 4000, mmb?
Thank you, Squire, for citing that key area we’ve dubbed “The Floor”. In the above graphic (as noted a week ago) you can see the pricing cluster ’round the 4000 area from back in June/July. Moreover, given the new Short trend, might its downside there end? As a guesstimate for downside slide, here we’ve updated our table of Gold’s prior 10 weekly parabolic Short trends. And therein we see an average duration of eight weeks with a modest maximum average decline of -2.5%:
So, by measuring from here at 4172 solely within the vacuum of that average, Gold would go as low as 4068, a reasonably acceptable area to apply the brakes. As well, per the opening Gold Scoreboard, Fair Value for Gold today is 4005, although admittedly, price today at 4172 already is -7.3% below its BEGOS Market Value of 4499, (also as shown in the Scoreboard). That is a fairly extreme deviation of price below valuation of -327 points; however, we witnessed distances better than double that as the Gold wheels came off this past March/April. Either way, it being month-end (plus two trading days), let’s go to our BEGOS Market Standings thus far for 2026, wherein Gold again is in the red and poor ol’ Sister Silver nearly left for dead, (which from her industrial metal perspective seems a bit untoward given Cousin Copper’s surging ahead):
As for the whole BEGOS bunch, here are their respective last 21 trading days (one month) replete with the diagonal grey trendlines and “Baby Blues”, the dots that depict the day-to-day consistency of each trend. Save for Copper and the S&P 500, (the latter as envisioned by Stoopid & Co. never having had a down day since its inception on 04 March 1957), a war-and-inflation-driven rising Dollar is beating down the balance of the bunch, even as Oil, too, is falling of late:
And specific to inflation, with last Wednesday’s release of the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures data for August, the month’s table is now complete, every listed category running above the Federal Reserve’s preferred pace of +2%. That desired level is the horizontal red line in the graphic’s lower panel. Yes, August’s PCE data was cooler than consensus … but both the headline and core paces were faster than those for July, plus on balance ’tis all still high by the Fed’s eye:
As to the StateSide economy, can it weather another Federal Open Market Committee vote to again nudge up its Bank’s FundsRate come the 28 October Policy Statement? Last week brought 16 metrics into the Economic Barometer, eight of which fared poorer per the prior period. The real data shocker for us was Personal Spending soaring in August by +0.9%, almost completely unsupported by Personal Income rising only +0.2%. “How’s that variable-rate credit card workin’ out for ya??” And per the Conference Board, September’s Consumer Confidence recorded its second-worst month-over-month drop since COVID during 2021. “Are you confident??” Gotta cue this one: 
“Nobody Knows You When You’re Down and Out”–(Jimmie Cox, 1923). At least (as previously grasped), the S&P 500 apparently never goes down. Here’s the Baro:
Returning to true monetary substance, here next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. Given the fallouts of the past week, prices within this construct are in their respective “soul-sols” (a little French lingo there) per the white line in each panel. And as labeled, volume-dominant resistance for the yellow metal is at 4190, whereas for the white metal ’tis the 61.20-61.45 zone, her having settled the week at 60.71:
As to key of the precious metals’ equity brethren, here are their percentage tracks from a year ago-to-date. From first-to-worst they are: Newmont (NEM) +34%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +20%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +16%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +14%, both Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) +8%, and Gold itself +7%. As noted earlier in the Standings, the latter is actually down year-to-date, as is PAAS. Here’s the whole gang:
And it being month-end, ’tis time once again for the monthly Gold Structure across the last eight years, the rightmost wee candle being October thus far. With respect to Gold’s aforementioned “sous-sol” positioning within the Market Profile — especially now in consideration of price more broadly moving toward the “The Floor” at 4000 — we’re put in mind of the noted cinematic classic from ’63 (Cité Films) as portrayed in the graphic. “Quel drame, mes amis!”
Thus — of which we’ve been wary through recent weeks — Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has flipped to Short, yet “The Floor” of 4000 is support and ’tis in range to get tested in the new week. Thereto, should Fair Value (4005) trade, ’tis always a brilliant opportunity to buy, (barring the StateSide money supply shrinking over time … impossible).
“Wow, is that Grace Kelly, mmb?
‘Tis a state secret, Squire. But as inevitably the Fed shall be forced to spin the printing tumblers to both pay down debt and bail out broker I.O.U. holders of S&P 500 (et alia) constituents, in turn we’ll see Gold fly high into the sky!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
02 October 2026 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Presently, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again moderate, albeit noting that the Franc already has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); it remains to be seen if this is the start of an notable up move for the Franc and Euro as we’d anticipated a week ago: key to mind there are the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends); too, the Franc yesterday moved above volume-dominant Market Profile resistor of 1.2130, (current price 1.2163). Gold has stabilized following Monday’s demise, even as today brings confirmation of the weekly parabolic trend’s having flipped to Short: more of course in tomorrow’s 881st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And the Econ Baro closes out its busy week with September’s Payrolls data, plus August’s Factory Orders.
01 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Gold, Silver and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Spoo. The S&P’s settle yesterday (7651.54) was a “Hobson Close” on the session’s low, market lore being that it shall move higher at the open, (which at this instant market to Fair Value would be a gain of +51 points). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are Gold’s daily Price Oscillator, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr MACD (which provisionally at this writing is crossing to negative), and Oil’s 8hr MACD; on a 24-test basis, they are both Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and 4hr MACD, plus the Yen’s 4hr MACD. Silver yesterday traded down through its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 61.20, however has regained that level thus far today. Incoming Econ Baro metrics include September’s ISM(Mfg) Index and August’s Construction Spending.
30 September 2026 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
The Euro is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is expectedly light ahead of the busy incoming metrics load for the Econ Baro, namely: September’s ADP Employment data and Chi PMI, the final revision to Q2 GDP, plus August’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” PCE data here on the final trading day of Q3. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components vis-à-vis their respective valuation lines, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond a full -6 points “low”, the Euro -0.031 points “low”, Gold -322 points “low, Oil +0.61 points “high” and the Spoo -17 points “low”; these multiple cases of “low” are indicative of recent Dollar strength. Oil (currently 89.78) yesterday slipped beneath volume-dominant Market Profile support at 92.20, whereas Copper (now 6.638) moved above like resistance at 6.620. We look for session volatility to ramp up post-PCE.
29 September 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short, price yesterday falling by as much as -4.1% to 4143, the lowest level since 05 August; the new hurdle price to regain the Longside is 4755. Currently 4176, Gold as well as Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the Swiss Franc is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light. The recent “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) Long signals for both the Swiss Franc and Euro have yet to produce gains given the war’s Oil/Dollar bid, the “Dixie” pushing back up above 101 as we’d last seen in June and July. The Spoo yesterday slid below its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 7766, (current price 7745); still, the “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is a futs-adj’d 73.1x and the yield 1.092%; (that for the 1yr riskless T-Bill is 4.590%). The Econ Baro awaits Consumer Confidence for September.
28 September 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time
Into the new week, we’ve seven of the eight BEGOS Markets at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the sole component above same is Oil, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update rather reluctantly cites “Still Lower Gold Ahead”, which clearly is the case at the moment, the current price of 4208 being -112 points: the weekly parabolic flip-to-Short level is 4190, and most broadly, Fair Value is 4001; in real-time, Gold is -344 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the daily Price Oscillator, or if seeking a per swing profit of 35 points, ’tis the daily Moneyflow. The Econ Baro, whilst quiet today, has a heavy load of incoming 16 metrics as the balance of the week unfolds, including on Wednesday the “Fed-favoured” PCE data.
The Gold Update: No. 880 – (26 September 2026) – “Still Lower Gold Ahead”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 880th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Still Lower Gold Ahead“
We honestly hope we’re wrong about this, but in a 180° about-face from our 15 August missive entitled “Still Higher Gold Ahead” — after which price indeed swiftly increased +7.3% from 4432 to 4755 — we now herewith have “Still Lower Gold Ahead”.
Ongoing war and inflating rates continue to play havoc with the Gold price, which just recorded its fourth down week in the past five. Oh to be sure, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend is surviving the Long side; but as we herein penned two weeks ago, the case for: “an otherwise pending change from Long to Short trend, perhaps by month’s end” appears just ’round the bend. Thus let’s straightaway start with Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date:
In having settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4321“plop”, Gold now sits but +131 points above the parabolic trend’s flip-to-Short level of 4190. Such “running out of room” given price’s expected weekly trading range now being 216 points, the Long trend clearly is in jeopardy. Too, the graphic’s Gold-dashed regression trendline — which has been positively sloped since mid-March 2023 — is nearing rotation to negative.
Yet fortunately as also thereon depicted, we’ve the 4316-3955 support zone, encompassing “The Floor” of 4000 (which you’ll recall we’ve on occasion cited). As well by the opening Gold Scoreboard, Fair Value today is 4001. Recall the prior test of Fair Value (then 3979 back on 26 June) immediately bringing in the buyers, price in due course reaching the aforementioned recent dominant high of 4755 (on 25 August).
The point is: even should price in the next week or two succumb to a parabolic Short trend, we anticipate ’twill be comprehensively pun-intended short-lived.
Neither let us dismiss what we penned a week ago, that our “leading deMeadville metrics are near to churning favorably for Gold, especially were the war to quickly wind down (albeit doubtful) and the August PCE come in Fed-friendly (also doubtful).”
“But those ‘doubtfuls’ ain’t goin’ away, huh mmb…”
Squire, the “doubtful” of the USA/IRN (dare we say “et alia”) war-to-date has thus far never rescinded to anything better than a stalemate. And notwithstanding the Stateside mid-term election (03 November), there is musing amongst the punditry that the conflict shall extend into next year, (aka Korea, Viet Nam, Afghanistan). The negative effect on Gold as the Dollar gets the bid to purchase Oil has been awkwardly cumbersome. To wit, here are the percentage tracks since the inception of the war from 28 February-to-date of Gold, Oil, the Dollar Index and (as ’tis again getting a bid) Bitcoin. Note: the way the Dollar is priced, the percentage alacrity lacks that of the other markets; but its small percentage moves can have large effects, as clearly is the case on Gold:
As well, next week brings the “doubtful” of the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for August, both the headline and core paces expected to be at three-month highs. Moreover, the FedFunds futures are priced above the current 3.750%-4.000% target range, now at 4.175% and thus are leaning toward another rate hike come the 28 October Policy Statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Conventional wisdom sees rising interest rates as Gold-negative, although hardly is that axiomatic as below we make evident so far this century:
Then there’s the Economic Barometer into which this past week came a scant five metrics. Four of them period-over-period were better, most notably August’s New Home Sales by beating consensus with July revised upward. But: “Hey buyers! How are those higher mortgage rates workin’ out for ya?” Here’s the Baro: does it necessarily have a Fed hike lean? Come Wednesday we’ll get the PCE scene within a week of metrics totaling sixteen:
Now drilling deeper into Gold, here we’ve our two-panel display of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Again, “churning” Gold positive may be the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency having (at least for the moment) curtailed their fall. The aforementioned support zone is the leftmost cluster of bars. As to the Profile, a week ago price was 4416, whereas now at 4321 ’tis beneath volume-dominant resistance at initially 4327 and then at 4390, making it appear a rocky upside road for Gold:
And here we’ve Silver’s like graphic. Long-time readers of The Gold Update know that when Sister Silver is cavorting with Cousin Copper, the white metal’s graphic doesn’t always align well with that for the yellow metal. But as Silver these recent months has been wearing her precious metal pinstripes (as opposed to her industrial metal jacket), both sets of graphics (above and below) appear quite identical:
Thus, on rolleth The Investing Age of Stoopid. Over here, the pros we know are on the edge of their deck chairs waiting for the S&P to crash, whereas the under-40 crowd are chasing — well — Crowdstrike and the like.
Meanwhile from the “Cash Is King Dept.”, UBS opines that cash is a “poor” long-term investment as it yields less than 1%. Guess what also just barely yields 1%? The S&P 500 (per our opening Gold Scoreboard). So is the S&P thus, too, a “poor” investment? Remember (as we’ve on occasion mentioned): it took the S&P over 13 years from 2000 into 2013 to net a gain of just +2%. Not to worry, however: the once-mighty Barron’s opined this past Thursday that “Stocks Are Resilient, Fairly Priced, and Probably Getting Ready to Rally”. Let’s therefore wrap as we again update this old-timer:
As we opened, hopefully we’re wrong about “Still Lower Gold Ahead”, albeit it can be tough to fight both the war and the Fed. But that said, make sure you’ve Gold as an investment stead!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
25 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is en route to completing its fourth down week in the last five, however not so much as to yet flip the weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short; still, there shan’t be much wiggle room remaining as we go into tomorrow’s 880th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo (7777) has nearly returned up to its BEGOS Market Value (7812 in real-time); but the P/E of the S&P 500 itself is (ex-CRWD) 47.8x and the yield 1.082% vs. 4.510% on the “riskless” 1yr T-Bill; of note, FedFundsFuts are at present pricing in another +0.25% rate increase come the 28 October FOMC Policy Statement. And the Econ Baro wraps its limited week with the revision to September’s UofM Sentiment Survey and August’s Durable Orders.
24 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc is at present the sole BEGOS Market above today’s Neutral Zone; below same are both Copper and the Spoo, and session volatility is light. As was the case for the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, the Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having risen above the key -80% axis, suggestive of still higher levels near-term: currently 1.1427, we’re eying a run up into the 1.16s. By Market Rhythms for the Euro, pure swing consistency has been per the 6hr MACD; or if seeking a profit target per swing of 0.0144 points, the daily Price Oscillator; also, the Euro as a primary BEGOS component is (in real-time) -0.0362 points beneath its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s New Home Sales and Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
23 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Bond is presently above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are all the other BEGOS Markets, save for the Spoo, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Yesterday’s settles confirmed two “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) signals: to the Long side ’tis for the Swiss Franc, the Blues having moved above the -80% axis; currently 1.2288, the signal suggests a move up into the 1.24s; conversely, Oil’s Blues falling below +80% elicited a move to the Short side: currently 89.38, the 85s reasonably may trade near-term, (the war of course being the wildcard); too, Oil has moved beneath its Market Magnet for the first time since 28 August. Oil’s best Market Rhythm by pure swing consistency is the 30mn Parabolics, or if seeking a target of 1.8 points/swing, the daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro kicks into late-week gear tomorrow.
22 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Gold and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Yesterday’s raucous rally in the S&P 500 (+1.5% or 114 points) ranks eighth-best (by %) year-to-date, in turn driving the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E to 71.1x, (that of constituent CRWD alone being 6737.3x, without which the P/E would be 47.1x). Specific to the Spoo (which by its “continuous contract” has touched the all-time high of 7838), its best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 15mn MACD, whereas if seeking a profit target of 52 points per swing, ’tis the daily EMA. Meanwhile, Gold’s weak start to the week continues: currently 4357, price yesterday fell below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 4390 which, too, is its Market Magnet. As noted yesterday, the Econ Baro remains quiet until Thursday.
21 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Presently, both the Bond and Spoo are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update sees the weekly parabolic Long trend as having at least another week to run, albeit price needs a substantive move up to maintain our targeted notion of 4959 from five weeks ago at 4432 (indeed price having then made it to as high as 4755 only to now be down at 4385); the war remains the negative wildcard for the yellow metal. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the daily Price Oscillator, or if seeking a profit objective of 35 points per swing, the daily Moneyflow (as is listed on the current Market Rhythms page). This is a very subdued week for the Econ Baro with a scant five incoming metrics scheduled, none of which appear until Thursday.
The Gold Update: No. 879 – (19 September 2026) – “Gold Records (Barely) an Up Week in Maintaining the Long Streak”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 879th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Records (Barely) an Up Week in Maintaining the Long Streak“
We open courtesy of “The Bob Hope Dept.” with this comedy classic: “Boy, Did I Get a Wrong Number!” –[United Artists, ’66]. For a week ago upon Squire asking us if the Federal Reserve would raise rates, we thus did state: “No change in rates“. Our notion was — the Fed always being late — that its favoured inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) was just a brief ten trading days hence, not to mention the media-portended political ire a rate hike would inspire. Thus to ensure, let one more meeting endure. “Wrong!”
The market being never wrong and having already priced in the rate hike — all 12 Federal Open Market Committee members voted alike. And given our having “pounded the table” for some two years that a hike was requisite, we are pleased they did it. As for any political ire, immediately after, The President — whilst a bit dour — nonetheless said of FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh: “We’ve a good man over there.” In any event, ’twill be interesting to next see August’s PCE (30 September), which is not expected to be pretty.
‘Course, as you regular readers know is our wont, rather than watch the FinMedia, we instead actually read the FOMC Policy Statement, the eye-catching sentence this time ’round being: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.“ Albeit two days post-Statement, the Conference Board yesterday (Friday) released its Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index instead indicative of shrinkage for August. We’ll view the Econ Baro in a bit, but first let’s get to Gold as this missive doth befit. And by the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, Gold did curtail its three-week losing streak in settling this past one higher (barely) at 4416, +26 points over last Friday’s 4390. Here ’tis:
“And, mmb, it finished the week higher than it was before the Fed, even though the buck also went up…”
It does fly in the face of conventional wisdom, Squire. At the very instant just before the release of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement, Gold was 4399 and the Dollar Index 99.42; from there, both were higher come Friday’s settles at 4416 and 99.95 respectively. Obviously the Dollar got the bid as post-Fed it pays more interest … but this time not at the net expense of Gold, (which as long-time readers know plays no currency favourites).
So: shall Gold’s parabolic up streak survive another week? Per the above graphic, the flip-to-Short level for the ensuing week is 4154, -262 points below present price. The expected weekly trading range high-to-low (or vice-versa) is 224 points, leaving little room for a straight-down week.
However: we sense the buyers are lurking out there. Gold’s last ten trading days have recorded four up and six down. But: the median contract volume for the four up days exceeded that of the six down days by +27%. That is called “positive moneyflow”. Lurking buyers, indeed.
But wait, there’s more. Direct from the website, we’ve constructed a two-panel graphic of Gold by the day from three months ago-to-date. On the left is price vis-à-vis its smooth BEGOS valuation line: by the oscillator, Gold may be poised to soon pass up through valuation, which across the past 25 years is a proven upside signal for still higher levels near-term. On the right we’ve Gold astride its Market Magnet, for which the interpretation is the same: price piercing above the Magnet (as has just happened) is indicative of further buying:
From the cautionary side, as we’ve been saying since the onset of the USA/IRN war, that continues to be the wildcard given a restrictive Oil supply commanding more Dollars by which Gold tends to somewhat succomb. All that noted, are we staying with our 4959 target? As long as (pun intended) “Long” remains the status of the aforeshown weekly parabolic trend, absolutely. And again as we say, a substantive up week would more comfortably keep that in play.
Which brings us to our next two-panel graphic of the daily bars, again from three months ago-to-date for Gold at left and for Silver at right. The key feature therein are the baby blue dots of 21-day linear regression trend consistency. The declining red line in both panels is that trend. And as the “Baby Blues” continue to drop, the steeper becomes the negativity of the red trendlines. Our time-honoured adage of “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” has naturally been spot on during this last month of price decline. Yet both metals during the past week deviated above the respective trendlines. But might that be “A Bridge Too Far”? –[United Artists, ’77]. For the Bulls to break through, we desire seeing the still-falling Blues returning to rising, which combined with the previous Gold panels of both its BEGOS Market Value and Market Magnets appearing more positive ought well elicit higher prices:
Moreover by their 10-day Market Profiles, both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) have recovered off their recent lows, overhead resistance not appearing as daunting as we’d lately been seeing. This in turn is why the precious metals Market Magnets (borne of the Market Profiles) have improved their stance of late in defining price consensus across the past two weeks. Current Profile supporters and resistors are as labeled:
The point is: all of these leading deMeadville metrics are near to churning favorably for Gold, especially were the war to quickly wind down (albeit doubtful) and the August PCE come in Fed-friendly (also doubtful).
Speaking of the Fed, lets now go to the Economic Barometer. Embedded therein is the FOMC Policy Statement quote of earlier note vis-à-vis the actual state of the blue Baro line:
For this past week alone, 15 metrics came into the Econ Baro of which only five improved period-over-period. (Again given the Fed’s being “behind the curve”, they likely shan’t figure that out until their 27/28 October meeting). Nevertheless stated, August’s Retail Sales were the best of the incoming bunch; but Building Permits slowed and July’s Business Inventories suffered their biggest month-over-month backup swing since those from COVID-stricken December 2021, (meaning product on balance wasn’t moving).
“And that S&P P/E of 67.2x is nuts, mmb!”
Squire, we yet again queried “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) with the exact formula, and per usual, it came up with an excuse, this time being: “I have investigated the available data sources, but I cannot yet produce a reliable calculation for all 503 constituents as of September 18, 2026.” (For those of you scoring at home, all you need is an Excel worksheet incorporating for each constituent its current price, trailing 12-month earnings, and current market-capitalization weighting within the S&P. ‘Tis so easy, a WestPalmBeacher can do it … well, maybe not…)
Of greater import, is a better up week for Gold about to unfold? Either way, ‘tis Gold one wants to hold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
18 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
Gold, Silver and the Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil: the latter’s cac volume has rolled from October into that for November with a discount of -4.60 points. Session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Gold (currently 4433) can end its three-down-weeks’ streak with a settle today above 4390 such that the ongoing weekly parabolic Long trend would still have some breathing room: more tomorrow in the 879th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The P/E of the S&P 500 is at a (futs-adj’d) stratospheric 69.1x, although eliminating CRWD from the Index reduces that to “only” 45.1x; (too, S&P shall rebalance the Index prior to Monday’s opening in welcoming three new constituents with three being removed). For the Econ Baro today we’ve August’s IndProd/CapUtil, plus the month’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
17 September 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The FOMC rightly raised its Bank’s Funds Rate, the vote unanimous even as our notion was they’d perhaps wait for the August “Fed-favoured” PCE data (due 30 September). So now “post-Fed” we’ve at present seven of the eight BEGOS Markets above today’s Neutral Zones, the sole component below same being Oil as ’tis “said” the USA/IRN war may be winding down; session volatility is moderate. In going ’round the horn for the five primary BEGOS Markets in real-time we’ve: the Bond -4^22 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.033 points “low”, Gold -183 points “low”, Oil +16.04 points “high”, and the Spoo -201 points “low”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include September’s Philly Fed Index, plus August’s Housing Starts/Permits and Pending Home Sales.
16 September 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
Currently, we’ve both Gold and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. As to correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is still positive between Gold and the Spoo. Our Top Three best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 15mn Parabolics, the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow and Gold’s 30mn MACD, whereas (on a 24-test basis) they are Oil’s 6hr Parabolics, again the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 6hr MACD. The Econ Baro looks to September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus July’s Business Inventories. The FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT) is widely expected to see the FedFunds interest rate target range raised from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%: we’ve been on record for some two years that it need be raised, however The Gold Update states the Committee shall stand pat pending August’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data due 30 September. Either way, expect extreme post-Statement volatility into the balance of the session.
15 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Cac volume for the Spoo has rolled from September into that for December with +67 points of premium; the Spoo at present (7672) is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc; Oil is above same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominant overhead resistor (basis December) is 7711, and price has fallen back beneath its Market Magnet; the Spoo’s best current Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 15mn Moneyflow. As widely reported, the 10yr-T-Note yield returned to 5.000% for the first time since 20 July 2007, following which from October the S&P 500 embarked on the second of two -50% corrections century-to-date. The Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.
14 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Not surprisingly, given the Saudi pipeline disruption, Oil gapped up to the commence the session and is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst the Spoo gapped down and is below its Neutral Zone as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, the Euro notably having traced 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to the weekly parabolic trend as still Long, but that it may be in jeopardy by month’s end should the Dollar be getting the bid to purchase Oil. By Market Trends, six of the eight BEGOS components are now in negative linreg, the two positive exceptions being (of course) Oil and (barely) Copper. Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics, or if seeking a profit target, the 12-Hour MACD which achieved at least 35 full points (both Long and Short) through nine of the past ten crossovers beginning back on 06 May. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with 15 metrics scheduled into the balance of the week. The FOMC Policy Statement comes Wednesday: we reason in The Gold Update “no change” albeit consensus (and rightly so) is for a 25bp FedFunds rate hike.
The Gold Update: No. 878 – (12 September 2026) – “Is Gold’s Weekly Long Trend Nearing Its End?”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 878th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Is Gold’s Weekly Long Trend Nearing Its End?“
Recall upon the 14 August confirmation of Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend having — after 21 weeks — flipped back to Long at 4432, the next day we enthusiastically penned “Still Higher Gold Ahead“, that therein included the following table…
…by which we “conservatively” assessed, rationalized and summarized “…from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend…” We also used per the above table’s median +11.9% price increase the 15-week median time span to reach that target by 27 November.
“But, the trend isn’t over, mmb…”
To be sure, dear Squire, the weekly parabolic Long trend remains in force, now five weeks in duration, with price having already swiftly traveled to as high as 4755 on 25 August.
BUT: as herein directly depicted a week ago, three consecutive down weeks within a Gold weekly parabolic Long trend almost always portends its end is ’round the bend, this current trio being net losses of -3.4%, -0.6% and another -1.9% for this past week.
“Well, mmb, that middle week wasn’t really much of a down move.”
To Squire’s point, the -0.6% wee drop for the week that ended 04 September might be considered nothing more than “noise”: such net drop of just -27 points came within our expected weekly trading range of then 237 points (the actual coming in almost precisely at 229 points and price settling +147 points above the intra-week low as buyers came to the fore).
But that was then, this most recent week now having settled yesterday (Friday) at 4390, obviously below where the still Long trend had begun to ascend. Yet in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, price today is a good +275 points above the ensuing week’s flip-to-Short level of 4115, which “technically” is out-of-range given the expected weekly trading range is now 229 points. Therefore, in a week’s time, the trend “ought” still be Long … but perhaps just barely if ’tis not an up week:
Further, ’tis not “fundamentally” the happiest period for Gold. As we well know, the USA/IRN war warrants a bid for Oil to offset potential shortfalls in its availability, in turn eliciting a bid for the Buck, the attractiveness to which may also increase come Wednesday should the Federal Open Market Committee vote to raise its FundsRate quote. After all, August’s inflation picture is again heating up following the June and July stints of relative cooling. Here’s our partially-completed Summary for August:
So: shall the FOMC really raise on Wednesday? For better than two years we’ve herein pointed out ad nauseam that inflation has been running on balance well-above the Fed’s targeted +2% level, even as those in denial have instead clamoured for rate cuts; (here at deMeadville, we oft think we’re the sole entity in the fintech world that actually performs math).
“But what do you think for Wednesday, mmb?”
No change in rates, Squire, even as the European Central Bank did raise on Thursday. Yes, per the above graphic’s “Averages” row, StateSide inflation is running at double the Fed’s desired pace. Yet FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh does have a card up his sleeve to give the FOMC a reprieve for standing pat beyond this 16 September Policy Statement until the next one scheduled for 28 October: ’tis the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures, which shan’t be reported until 30 September. “Better to wait and see, you see?”
Too, there’s the political ire that a rate increase would inspire: “Well I’m sorry, but I’m going to have to shoot you.” –[Monty Python, “The Cheese Shop”, ’72] … ( just a little humour there, folks).
Thus should the FOMC maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% FedFunds rate range, that could sufficiently gird Gold into recording an up week, in turn pushing back an otherwise pending change from Long to Short trend, perhaps by month’s end. But broader-term, the war remains a pressure issue on Gold should the Dollar benefit by the Oil bid, especially if (given what is being reported) the conflict extends through next year and potentially beyond.
As to “The Now”, here we’ve Gold’s two-panel chart featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Those of you who follow our daily Prescient Commentary have already been aware of the anticipated rotation for Gold’s 21-day regression trend from positive to negative, which was confirmed at Thursday’s close. ‘Tis denoted in the graphic by the baby blue dots of trend consistency having passed below their 0% axis. And with respect to the Profile, there is now significant overhead volume-dominant resistance spanning from 4414 up to 4471; it doesn’t look like a lot of fun:
Such is the similar state of Silver, having settled the week at 65.02. Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are on the cusp of the regression trend rotating from positive to negative. By her Profile (below right), volume resistance runs up into the 66s and 67s. Jim Diamond’s ’86 hit “Hi Ho Silver” is instead appearing rather “Lowdown”–(Chicago, ’71). C’mon, ol’ Sister Silver…
Looking next to the Economic Barometer, what a month ago was approaching a seemingly ceaseless slump has since regained some “grunt in the lump”, (F1 expression for engine power). Across the past four weeks, 46 metrics have come into the Baro of which 28 (61%) have equaled or bettered their respective prior period results, notable standouts including Payrolls, Durable and Factory Orders, Building Permits, Consumer Credit, and the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. ‘Course, the spanner in the works is inflation: the second of what shall be three readings on Q2 Gross Domestic Product recorded 81% of the topline +7.9% annualized growth rate as inflation, (the net “real” being just +1.5%). Query: “Gold Gold?” Here we’ve got the Baro:
Toward our wrap, here’s the Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4463
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4456
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4414 / 4442 / 4471
Gold Currently: 4390, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 115 points)
Trading Support: nearby Market Profile notables: 4380 / 4356
10-Session directional range: down to 4331 (from 4678) = -347 points or -7.4%
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4269 and rising
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 4115
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3992
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
And thus we close with just the briefest of questions: Has the S&P crashed yet? Just asking.
As noted in the Econ Baro graphic, “S&P 8000” has been bandied about, notably at very highly-visible investment banks due to (as we quote from “AI“) “strong corporate earnings”. If earnings are so “strong”, then why at this writing is the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (trailing 12-months basis) at 60.8x? (For those of you scoring at home, that is 4x the “acceptable high” of 15x taught in portfolio theory).
“Yeah, mmb, but if you take out just CrowdStrike, it drops to 44.1x.”
Squire, ’tis a good point as that company’s P/E settled the week at 5,584.9x, its market capitalization of $211.3B ranking 54th of the 503 constituents comprising the S&P; (or for you WestPalmBeachers down there: paying $206.64 for a stock that earns $0.04 per share is the equivalent of paying $5,584.90 for something that earns $1.00. “Got CRWD?” We hope not).
Indeed, from the deMeadville Valuation & Rankings page, here are our Top Ten goofball P/Es right now:
Sleeping well with those “strong corporate earnings”?
Lower Gold perhaps in our stead, make sure yours is your bed!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
11 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
Into the 25th anniversary of “9/11” we’ve Gold, Copper and the Spoo all at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s falling “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed the linreg’s rotation from positive to negative; price appears poised to record a third straight down week within the overall weekly parabolic Long trend: more on that in tomorrow’s 878th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s -4.8% net loss yesterday ranks third-worst year-to-date; Silver’s drop of -5.7% was its worst day since 24 June (-6.73%). The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 61.4x, albeit removing CRWD reduces that to “only” 44.3x, (still triple that taught as “high” in portfolio theory); and the “risk-full” yield is 1.097% vs. the “risk-less” 4.280% on the 1yr T-Bill. The Econ Baro looks to August’s CPI and Treasury Budget, as well as September’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
10 September 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Both the Swiss Franc and Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. Yesterday, each of the Euro, Gold and Silver moved above their most volume-dominant Market Profile resistors, albeit the Bond dropped below that which had been support. Such noted, Gold in real-time (as anticipated earlier this week) finds its 21-day linreg having rotated to negative (see Market Trends); that for Silver, the Euro and Swiss Franc remain only marginally positive, even as the Dollar has been weakening across the last several trading days; and over these next two trading days, cac volume for the Currencies shall be moving from September into that for December. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s PPI and Existing Home Sales, plus July’s Wholesale Inventories.
09 September 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday moved back above their Market Magnets, suggestive of higher levels near-term; moving below its Magnet was the Spoo, its next volume-dominant supporter being 7644 should 7681 fall away into a down day, (see Market Profiles). Gold and the Spoo continue to maintain our best correlation (positive) amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Gold’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its daily price Oscillator and (on a 24-test basis) its 6hr MACD; for the Spoo ’tis the 2hr Parabolics by both bases. Ahead of inflation data both tomorrow and Friday, nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.
08 September 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, now with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are both Gold and the Spoo, and overall session volatility has expanded to mostly robust. In going ’round the horn of the five primary BEGOS components by their Market Values, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^20 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.017 points “low”, Gold +63 points “high”, Oil +9.85 points “high” and the Spoo -130 points “low”. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue dropping for both Gold and Silver, albeit not (yet) below their 0% axes: recall for Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend we’re seeking 4900, the high thus far being 4755 prior to the more recent selling, (price now 4447, yet only mildly lower for the week thus far). Late in the session comes July’s Consumer Credit for the Econ Baro.
07 September 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
‘Tis a two-day Tuesday-settlement session for the BEGOS Markets; given the StateSide holiday, trading halts begin today from 17:00 GMT (with resumption as usual at 22:00 GMT). At present, Oil is above the session’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Gold; volatility is expectedly light. The Gold Update suggests should price put in a third consecutive down week that the weekly parabolic Long trend may soon be approaching an end, (although for this week, a flip to Short were 4074 to trade is well out of expected range); currently 4441, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 4482; too in real-time, price is +60 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and by Market Trends, we may see Gold’s 21-day linreg rotate to negative by week’s end. ‘Tis “inflation week” for the Econ Baro, the August PPI due Thursday and the CPI come Friday.
The Gold Update: No. 877 – (05 September 2026) – “Gold’s Recent Rally is Weakening … But an Up Week Can Right It”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 877th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s Recent Rally is Weakening … But an Up Week Can Right It“
We open with the yucky, wokey noun “awareness”, as ’tis increasing of late with respect to acknowledging the money to cover that which is owed isn’t there … a very Gold positive.
To wit, let’s start straightaway with this from the “A.I. On Your Side Dept.” Ready?
Our A.I. Query –> “Concern: The U.S. federal debt is $40T; the S&P 500 market capitalization is $68T; but the liquid money supply to support it (the total being $108T) is only $23T. What is the end-game?”
The A.I. Response –> “Your math highlights a classic economic puzzle … creating an apparent shortfall. However, … it is the natural state of a highly developed financial system. The “end-game” is … a complex balancing act managed through monetary velocity, debt rollovers, and asset valuation dynamics.“
Our Logical Reaction –> “GOT GOLD?!?!?!“
“That is really scary, mmb…”
Scary, indeed, Squire. ‘Tis the greatest game of “Chicken” in the history of the world. Who shall first blink? “Uhhh… can you pay us in something other than Dollars?” Headline: “World Ends, Dow +2”. Just something upon which to chew amongst you StateSiders at your long Labor Day Weekend BBQs.
As to the week just past, not much was cookin’ on the grill for Gold. ‘Twas its second consecutive down week, wherein the support structure we cited a week ago (4509-4366) was overshot, price having traded Wednesday to as low as 4329, before rebounding to settle yesterday (Friday) at 4477, although still -0.6% (-27 points) net for the week.
“But what if price goes down again for next week, mmb?”
Superb question, Squire. Gold decade-to-date is now in its 14th weekly parabolic Long trend. With but one exception (from November 2021 into March 2022), a third consecutive down week likely portends the end to the trend. Rather, we’d like to consider these past two down weeks as merely a pause in the upside action. But in facing the fundamentals, the war remains a Gold negative upon the Dollar getting 1) a bid to purchase Oil and 2) a bid for better (i.e. higher) yield. ‘Course, ’tis not yet next week. However, either way, here we’ve Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend having completed a fourth week. “Up, please?”
Even were Gold to put in a third consecutive down week, it reasonably would not be enough to (at least initially) flip the above trend from Long to Short: the distance from here (4477) to the flip level (4074) is -403 points, whereas the expected weekly trading range is now “only” 237 points, (the daily being 115 points). Regardless, as Quarrel the Cayman Islander said to James Bond: “It don’t do for a man to tempt Providence too often.” –[Dr. No, United Artists, ’62]. On verra, ya…
Specific to Gold vis-à-vis its BEGOS Markets’ smooth valuation line, we’ve updated the year-over-year graphic as presented two missives ago with the three oscillator red peak lines. As you’ll recall, we were becoming a bit wary over price getting too far afield from its BEGOS Market Value. Indeed, since the last swing peak at 4755 on 25 August (valuation then 4175, i.e. +580 points “high”), price through this past week’s low marked a -9.0% drop (-426 points), albeit by the Oscillator, Gold today (4477) still is +119 points above this valuation metric (4358) as we next see:
Further, should Gold trade down through the smooth valuation line, the proven rule (rather than the exception) is to anticipate still lower prices near-term. And in turning to our two-panel daily graphic across the past three months of Gold on the left and of Silver on the right, we see for both metals the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency having accelerated their respective falls from a week ago: should the “Baby Blues” eclipse below the 0% axes, the 21-day trends shall have rotated from positive to negative. Note therein the horizontal green lines: they describe the structural support zones, which as mentioned Gold briefly violated mid-week, but within which Silver remains (66.98-62.45). Nonetheless as we on occasion quip: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.” But as well discern that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.” Here’s the graphic:
Next, the 10-day market Profiles for both the yellow (at left) and white (at right) metals find price just below their respective midpoints. For Gold, the 4650-4694 span appears resistive, whilst same for Sister Silver is 68.80-69.95. Other volume-dominant prices are as labeled:
As for the Economic Barometer, ’twas buoyed this past week by Labor’s take on August employment, the +162k net Payrolls increase four times that expected, with July’s number also being revised from shrinkage to growth. ‘Course, by ADP’s measuring, August employment slowed from July as well as missed consensus. So in which reporting entity do you believe? The ADP number is of course geared toward private jobs growth rather than that for public, although Labor’s own private measure (unlike ADP’s) was also very positive. Also boosting the Baro were Factory Orders, having swung from June shrinkage (-0.2%) to July growth (+0.9%).
Looking to the Federal Reserve, the countdown to the Open Market Committee’s next Policy Statement is just seven trading days (16 September), within which we’ll next week get both wholesale and retail inflation data for August. Shall such measures remain benign for a third straight month such as to keep the Fed at bay? Let’s see what the numbers say, even as the Baro is making some headway, with our old “marked-to-market millionaire” buddies still at play as “crash season” prey, (should it turn out that way):
To close, as herein put forth a week ago, we’re not predicting an imminent crash for the S&P 500, albeit ’tis “crash season” and the “earningless n’ yieldless” Index is wildly overdue for one. In updating our numbers from a year ago, the first 25 Septembers thus far this century — when combined — amount to a -30.9% decline for the S&P, even as October tends hold the dubious distinctions of Black Tuesday (’29), Black Monday (’87) and (within the FinCrisis) Black Wednesday (’08). Then, too, there’s ol’ Black Swanee. When might he come floating by?
Make sure you’ve Gold when the rest go bye-bye!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
04 September 2026 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is presently the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. Support has held well for the precious metals this week; that stated, by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver as their respective uptrends weaken; more tomorrow, of course, in the 877th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a firm day across all eight BEGOS Markets: of note therein with respect to Market Profiles, each of the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo moved above what been their most volume-dominant overhead resistors; too, the Spoo recovered above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro raps its week with August’s Payrolls data as StateSide stocks move into the Labor Day Weekend, (the BEGOS Markets nonetheless trading an abbreviated Monday session for Tuesday settlement).
03 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. By Market Rhythms, our Top Three for pure swing consistency are (on the 10-test run) the Bond’s 4hr Parabolics, Oil’s 1hr Parabolics, and Gold’s daily Moneyflow; too, (on the 24-test run) are Gold’s 1hr Moneyflow, Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and Copper’s 1hr MACD. The Spoo yesterday made another marginal one-month low at 7619: currently 7675, there is volume-dominant Market Profile support at 7644, with resistance running from 7686 up to 7698; and by its BEGOS Market Value, the Spoo is (in real-time) -129 points below its smooth valuation line (itself 7805). Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s ISM(Svc) Index, July’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
02 September 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation is positive between Gold and the Spoo; the latter yesterday moved beneath its Market Profile volume-dominant support of 7698, falling further to 7622, a one-month low. Opposingly, the 3mo T-Bill’s annualized yield reach a one-month high of 3.778%; (that for the S&P 500 is 1.094%). Also yesterday, both the Bond and Copper slipped beneath their respective Market Magnets, indicative of still lower price levels near-term. By Market Trends, Oil is the sole component for which the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are rising. The Econ Baro looks to August’s ADP Employment data and July’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
01 September 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Our notion a month ago of the Bond reaching up to 112 never materialized in this rather confusing wake of the Bessent/Warsh indicatives: price reached no higher than 110^16 and currently is 108^10, which by its BEGOS Market Value is (in real-time) -3^23 points below its smooth valuation line (itself at 112^01); too, the Bond yesterday fell below is volume-dominant Market Profile support of 109^16; the Bond’s best market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the 4hr Parabolics; on the 24-test basis ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; the underlying product’s yield is 5.249%. For the Econ Baro we’ve August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.
31 August 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
Both Copper and Oil are starting the week at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the Spoo is below same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. The Gold Update sees price’s weekly parabolic Long trend as firm, albeit we point to some near-term anticipated weakness: already today for both Gold and Silver, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) have dropped below their respective +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels; Gold’s support zone spans from 4509 down to 4366, and that for Silver from 66.98 down to 62.45; Gold by its BEGOS Market Value, (in real-time) is +255 points above the smooth valuation line. As well, we are entering (not predicting) “Crash Season” for the S&P 500, (see The Gold Update). Too, in having rebalanced the S&P’s shares, our “live” P/E is again above 60x (futs-adj’d 61.4x at this instant). The Econ Baro has nothing due today, with 13 incoming metrics through the balance of the week.
The Gold Update: No. 876 – (29 August 2026) – “For Gold We Favour Adhesion into S&P Crash Season”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 876th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“For Gold We Favour Adhesion into S&P Crash Season“
Yes: following five consecutive up weeks for Gold, this past one was down, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 4504. ‘Twas Gold’s fourth-worst weekly performance (-3.4%) of the 34 full trading weeks year-to-date, yesterday alone being the 12th-worst single session (-3.2%) thus far through 2026’s 166 trading days. Fortunately, per the upper Scoreboard’s right-hand panel, the week’s dip actually appears nothing more than a blip.
No: we are not predicting an imminent outright crash for the S&P 500. However, ’tis seasonally “that time of year” with crash conditions — certainly by lack of both supportive earnings and money supply — more acute than across any and all of Black Tuesday in ’29, the Garzarelli Cavatelli in ’87, the Asian Contagion in ’97, the Russian Debt Crisis in ’98, the DotComBomb in ’00, the FinCrisis in ’08 and the Ovid to Covid in ’20. Let’s face it, folks: the dough ain’t there. We’re simply awaiting the fear.
Specific to Gold, just as it had rallied two weeks ago upon StateSide SecTreas Scott “Buy Back Bonds!” Bessent’s move to lower yields, price yesterday careened back down upon FedHead Kevin “The Warrior “ Warsh in Wyoming having inferred the Federal Open Market Committee may have to vote to tighten money should inflation not recede toward the desired annualized 2% target. In fact, his stated current inflation rate (Personal Consumption Expenditures basis) of 3.7% matches our overall “12-Month Summation” average through July as we see here:
However, our “July Annualized” column averages to just 1.8%, aided by slowing headline inflation per both the retail measure’s Consumer Price Index and the wholesale measure’s Producer Price Index.
“Well, maybe July was just a ‘one-off month’, mmb…”
Seasonally, Squire, July can be rather subdued, notably by the PPI headline inflation measure. The “Great American Sap” (hat-tip dear old Dad) has towed his boat to the lake to vegetate and drink 12-oz. cans of Coors for two weeks rather than constructively engage in any material economic stimulus.
Such digression aside, here is another view from one year ago-to-date of each monthly inflation metric annualized (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means multiplied by 12). The red axis is the Fed’s preference for 2% inflation, toward which — following what was a deflationary June — the metrics for July converged:
Either way, from the conventional wisdom Gold perspective, lower rates/yields are friendly as they depress the Dollar, although vice-versa are inhospitable. Recall as well from last week’s missive our graphic of Gold having reached well above its BEGOS Market Value (as also depicted in today’s opening Scoreboard), such that price was potentially at a near-term peak. Still, despite Gold’s poor performance for this past week, the broader picture continues on balance in resumption of upside form per the weekly bars and rightmost blue parabolic Long trend dots:
As well, it being month-end (less one trading day), let’s go to our year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with premier of its metals equities. And the leverage of the latter is clearly on display as we find Gold itself +30%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +43%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +48%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +60%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +62%, along with Newmont (NEM) and the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) both +77%. Livin’ large by the leverage of late are the equities lads!
We’ve more in maintaining our month-end mode with the year-to-date BEGOS Market Standings. Just a month ago, Gold was third-from-the bottom, -5.4%: now ’tis in fourth position, +4.0%; however, we again find Silver in the cellar. Poor ol’ Sister Silver… especially with Cousin Cooper +15.0%… “Got Silver?” (hint-hint, wink-wink, nudge-nudge):
And in keeping with the BEGOS bunch, let’s go ’round the horn across their respective past month (21 trading days) wherein seven of the eight components (save for Copper, which as just cited has already been having an excellent year) are sporting positive grey trendlines. That stated, we are near-term wary of the baby blue dots that depict trend consistency now rolling over notably for Gold, Silver, and the Euro. As you regular readers and website followers know, our leading indicator of the “Baby Blues” falling below the +80% level portends still lower prices near-term (as was the case for the Euro at Wednesday’s settle). Neither those for Gold nor Silver at this writing have (yet) broken below +80%. But should they so do in the next day or two, Gold’s nearby support structure starts from just above here (4504) at 4509 down to 4366, and for Silver (currently 66.26) from 66.98 down to 62.45. That said, hardly do we think one ought abandon the precious metals during this near-term adversity. (As to the S&P 500, did we mention ’tis historically “Crash Season”?)
“Good one, mmb. Here’s your picture.”
In further turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right, the prices of both precious metals traveled southerly this past week, their respective white lines denoting Friday’s settles. Volume-dominant level supporters and resistors are as labeled:
However, having recently stopped moving southerly is the Baro. Only four of the Economic Barometer’s incoming metrics for the past week were worse period-over-period. BUT: included therein was the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for August, which slipped from an “expansion” reading in July of 57.6 to now a “contraction” reading of 47.1. Except for the onset of Covid per the April 2020 reading, this August’s negative Chi PMI swing was the worst since that into February of 2015, following which the S&P 500 fell by as much as -11.5% over the ensuing six months … just in case you’re scoring at home. And again, we now sit on the threshold of the S&P’s potential “Crash Season” … albeit of the aforementioned bevy of occurrences, there’ve been only two of -50% so far this century. So, not to worry. Here’s the Baro:
So whilst the herd blows bubbles as the S&P itself bubbles, let’s instead return to something of substance: Gold by its monthly structure so far this decade. Oh to be sure, Gold went through a stage of bubbling earlier this year in reaching the All-Time High of 5586 (29 January) — then +44% above Fair Value — only to thereby return, (as you’ll herein recall), come 24 June.
Regardless, as currencies have come and gone over the centuries, throughout there’s always been Gold: good ol’ Gold! Again, it has had periodic bubbles; but they’ve been relatively “Tiny Bubbles” –[’66] compared to those of Dollar debasement, debt and (understatement) S&P. Here’s the structure graphic, the rightmost candle showing an on-balance strong August, (and albeit with one trading day still to go), Gold’s best net month (+8.8% even in accounting for Friday’s demise) since February (+9.6%). You tell ’em in Golden style there, Don!
To sum it up, a bit more near-term Gold slippage is what we envisage, but hardly enough to flip the broader-based weekly parabolic from Long to back to Short: ‘twould entail from here a further fall of some -10%, whereas we’re instead keenly eyeing the 4900s to trade on this overall upside run.
‘Course, that in the following context would be modest. Given (per the opening Scoreboard) the ratio of the S&P 500’s market capitalization/liquid money supply being 2.9x, plus the ever-expansive insolvency of the U.S. Treasury, we provide this calculation, with which you can impress your friends at next weekend’s StateSide Labor Day BBQs:
Gold today: $4,504/oz. (Fair Value $3,990/oz.);
“Print” $45.5T to make S&P investors “whole” were the Index liquidated today;
and
“Print” $40.1T to make the U.S. Treasury “whole” were its debt paid down today;
…a little drumroll please…
Resultant Fair Value for Gold: $18,365/oz.
Or, as aforestated:
Adhere to Gold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
28 August 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility for the session is again light. Yesterday, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed having slipped below their key +80% axis: currently 1.1655, we’d watch for the Euro to test near-term the underlying 1.1628-1.1580 zone. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three currently are (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s daily Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Copper’s 2hr Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) they are Copper’s 15mn Parabolics and both Oil’s 15mn Parabolics and 6hr Parabolics. Gold is mildly net down for the week, although very comfortably within its recently established weekly parabolic Long trend: more tomorrow in the 876th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with August’s Chi PMI and the usual revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey. And FedChair Warsh makes the annual KC Fed address in Jackson Hole.
27 August 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Both the Swiss Franc and Copper have slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Cac volumes are rolling today from September into December for both the Bond (at a -0^16 discount) and Silver (at at +0.800 premium) . By Market Values (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond (basis December) is -2^18 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold +441 points “high”, Oil -2.11 points “low” and the Spoo -22 points “low”. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 42.8x and the yield 1.085%, whereas that for the one-year T-Bill is 4.010%. The sole metric today for the Econ Baro is the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.
26 August 2026 – 08:33 Central Euro Time
The Euro and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Copper: the latter’s cac volume is rolling today from September into December (with a +0.1000 premium); session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Copper yesterday broke above volume-dominant Market Profile support at 6.7100 (basis December, price currently 6.8610). Following our bearish bias yesterday for Oil, price has since notably dropped from 84.22 (at our post) to as low as 80.08, essentially through the stated structural support zone; price also has passed below its BEGOS Market Value, below what had been volume-dominant support at 8230, and down through the Market Magnet of 83.88. For the Spoo, its price compression is evident by having traced a full EDTR (see Market Ranges) but once across the past three weeks, even as the EDTR has declined during that period from 107 to 65 for today. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro encompassing the first revision to Q2 GDP, plus Durable Orders for July along with Personal Income/Spending and the month’s “Fed-Favoured” PCE data.
25 August 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Oil is presently below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is the Spoo; amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, those two continue to have the best correlation, which is negative; overall session volatility is moderate. Oil (84.22) yesterday slipped beneath its most volume-dominant Market Profile support level of 85.00, and in real-time Oil’s 12hr MACD (which is its best Market Rhythm per our Oil page) is crossing to negative: the last five such Short crossovers have each minimally produced (given hindsight) downside profit of $4k/cac within an average duration of some three weeks; structural support for Oil appears to run from 84.61 to 80.09; still, Oil’s 21-day linreg remains positive with its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency rising, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits August’s Consumer Confidence and July’s New Home Sales.
24 August 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
The week begins finding at present both the Bond and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update accounts for price’s push given the StateSide Treasury’s accelerating longer-term debt repurchasing; today’s high thus far of 4717 is Gold’s best level since14 May. Q2 Earnings Season has concluded finding 79% of reporting S&P 500 constituents having beaten their Q2 bottom lines of a year ago: that ranks second-best across the past 12 reporting quarters; the fly in the ointment remains the “live” P/E of 43.1x suggestive of at least a -40% “correction” simply to bring valuation into reasonable line with earnings. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics scheduled through the balance of the week.
The Gold Update: No. 875 – (22 August 2026) – “Gold and Other Bits Get the Contra-Buck Bid”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 875th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold and Other Bits Get the Contra-Buck Bid“
Recall from last week’s piece “Still Higher Gold Ahead” our confirmation of a new Gold weekly parabolic Long trend, price then 4432. Therein, we historically depicted the maximum percentage price increases and durations of the prior 10 such Long trends (since August ’22), enabling us to extrapolate as follows:
- “Conservatively … from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend.”
And straightaway, Gold went on to settle yesterday (Friday) at 4662: that is already 44% of the distance to 4959 in just the first week of what we calculated would reasonably take some 15 weeks. “Conservatively” indeed! For those of you scoring at home, by both percentage (+5.2%) and points (+230), ’twas Gold’s third-best of the 33 full trading weeks year-to date.
Whilst we at The Gold Update would like to take a bow for inspiring the rally, a hat-tip of deference instead is due to StateSide SecTreas Scott “Buy Back Bonds!” Bessent, whose Wednesday announcement (12:30 GMT) to repurchase longer-term U.S. debt for that of shorter duration sent Gold soaring. Through Wednesday’s remaining trading hours, Gold leapt intra-day as much as +159 points (+3.6%) post-announcement.
“Well don’t cut yourself too short, mmb, ’cause Gold was as much as up 61 points before Bessent…”
(And conspiratorially, Squire, one wonders which entities already had been buying … but we digress).
Regardless, the U.S. yield curve having rotated from negative just a few years back to positive prudently supports lowering the Treasury’s potential payout (assuming the usual buyers are there). ‘Course the big BUT becomes the less-yielding Dollar in turn losing appeal, thus Gold getting the bid. BOOM! Why, even Bitcoin benefitted in a buying binge, breaking back (again) above our “fib support zone” as the rightmost weekly bar “Sayled” higher:
“So are you REALLY jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon mmb???”
We remain strictly an ongoing observer, Squire, the point in this case being non-dollar money pools across the liquidity spectrum benefitting from the Buck’s bad luck in recording its fourth-worst weekly percentage loss this year. Conversely for the €uro, ’twas its fifth-best, the Swiss Franc its second-best, and Bitcoin its best weekly net percentage gain (+22.6%) since that ending 01 March 2024.
As aforementioned, ‘twas Gold’s third-best week of the year as the fresh parabolic Long trend kicked into yet a higher gear. Big Numbers for Big Gold here by the weekly bars as they appear:
But perhaps too big, too fast? As pro-Gold as we are, ’tis upon the ground that one’s feet ought be bound. To be sure, the yellow metal zoomed up this past week on the legitimate fundamental of Dollar weakness, (albeit we’ve demonstrated over the years that Gold plays no currency favourites even as Dollar debasement is the primary driver of Fair Value). That stated, too, we’ve our BEGOS Market Value for Gold depicted as 4167 in the opening Scoreboard. For additional context, here next are Gold’s daily closes from one year ago-to-date, the emphasis therein being on the oscillative peaks in the lower panel. They are connected with respective red lines to price’s peaks. Whilst we’re not necessarily at a peak today, the points’ deviation of price above its smooth valuation line is again becoming extreme, indeed the most so since the six consecutive trading-day span from this past 22 January into the All-Time Intra-Day High of 5586 on 29 January:
What can stem Gold’s recent robust uptrend? Two non-technical factors come to mind:
- Next week’s array of 11 incoming metrics for the Economic Barometer includes the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for July. Consensus calls for increases (+0.1% headline, +0.2% core) over those of a completely benign June, such uptrend then perhaps becoming construed as Gold negative. And there are a number of saber-rattling Federal Reserve officials of late with an eye towards raising The Bank’s Funds rate. Let’s see how FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh this next Friday addresses any notion in Jackson Hole of jacking up rates.
- As the USA/IRN war seems on the path to “inevitibly” re-heat, as herein oft stated, the bid for Oil shall re-elicit the bid for the Dollar, which during warring days has been Gold negative. ‘Twould be catalytic to close that gap as just shown between Gold’s price and its BEGOS Market Value. Yes, Gold has only just embarked on its new weekly parabolic Long trend; but down weeks within overall uptrends come with the territory: Gold’s previous Long trend lasted 14 weeks in which five were down; it happens.
The point is: we don’t see the new Long trend being “Short-lived”; but hardly do see it as simply uni-directionally up.
Meanwhile, trying to buck being what had recently seemed uni-directionally down is the Econ Baro. 12 metrics came into the Baro this past week, of which eight were better period-over-period, the notable standouts being July’s Building Permits and the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index, the latter having reported a positive bias for only the fourth time in the past ten months. As to the Building Permits, they beat consensus and those for June, which were also revised upward: this may be positive for August’s Housing Starts that for July missed consensus and were less than June, those therein revised lower. Thus in going to the Econ Baro, let’s cue “If I had a hammer” –[The Weavers, ’50]:
To our two-panel Gold graphic we go, featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Remember when the baby blue dots signaled a “buy” (upon crossing above the -80% axis) per the 02 July close at 4136? Price today is +12.7% higher. And the Profile’s notable volume-dominant support levels are now 4547 and 4450:
Sister Silver has been a bit less robust on her recent upside run in not having reached May’s higher levels (as already has Gold). Yet similar to Gold, her “Baby Blues” (below left) “buy” came per 30 June’s close at 59.05; today she’s +16.9% higher at 69.01. As for her Profile (below right), 64.95 stands as her most volume-dominant supporter:
Toward wrapping, we just had the closing of Q2 Earnings Season. Specific to the S&P 500’s 503 constituents, 443 reported within the calendar season, of which 349 (79%) bettered their bottom lines from Q2 a year ago: that by percentage improvement ranks second-best across the past 12 reporting quarters. ‘Tis the good news.
However, you regular readers therefore know the bad news: the overall level of earnings remains significantly insufficient to support an S&P yielding but 1.090% with our “live” (ttm) price/earnings ratio of now 43.1x, which in turn is +70% higher than ’twas when conceived at 25.4x back in January 2013. (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that is mathematically suggestive of a correction in the S&P of worse than -40%). Or to reprise from “The Eiger Sanction” –[Universal, ’75] what Reiner Schöne (as Karl Freytag) exclaimed to Michael Grimm (as Anderl Meyer) and Clint Eastwood (as Jonathan Hemlock) whilst all were desperately clinging to the iconic north face: “The ice is cracking!!”
But Gold is cracklin’!!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
21 August 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Euro plus the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session again is light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, our best current correlation continues between Oil and the Spoo as negative; Oil’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics whilst for the Spoo ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; and the Spoo has slipped below its BEGOS Market Value for the first time since 31 July, suggestive of lower prices near-term: structural support for the Spoo spans from 7632 to 7324. Gold (4622) is up to its highest level since 29 May: more tomorrow in the 875th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; and ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.
20 August 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
At present, we’ve both the Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s StateSide Treasury notification toward buying back longer-term maturities gave significant boosts to the currencies and metals: specifically for Gold, in real-time ’tis trading +390 points above its BEGOS Market Value; such prior extreme was in the run to last January’s record high (5586), after which price fell considerably over the ensuing months, (not that we envision a like pullback this time ’round); that said, some retrenchment whilst still maintaining the new broader weekly parabolic Long trend would be reasonable to expect, especially with indications of the war being extended such that Oil brings a bid again for the Dollar. The Econ Baro concludes its week today (Thursday) with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index, plus July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index.
19 August 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms, leading the pack for pure swing consistency is the Spoo’s 30mn MACD: its last 10 crossings (since 11 August) have yielded an intra-signal max profit/max adversity ratio of 5.5x. Gold, having reached well-above its BEGOS Market Value after being better than +300 points (now +234 in real-time), reverted yesterday such as to fall below its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 4450 as well as slip below its Market Magnet of 4393; such reversion is normal, and moreover, the new weekly parabolic Long trend remains well intact, the “out-of-range” 3955 level being this week’s reversal price. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, although the FOMC’s Minutes from its 28/29 July meeting come due late in the session: because the actual Policy Statements under FedHead Warsh are comparably brief, the Minutes take on more scrutiny than in prior years.
18 August 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro, Silver, Copper and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Bond has not risen toward our 112 notion as rising yield desires continue to pressure price: we’ll continue to mind the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency there; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm currently is (10-test basis) the 30mn Parabolics and (24-test basis) the 1hr MACD. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for all five primary BEGOS components we’ve: the Bond showing as -4^27 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as +297 points “high”, Oil as +4.97 points “high” and the Spoo as +55 points “high”. Today the Econ Baro receives a bevy of July reports encompassing Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil, and Pending Home Sales.
17 August 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
We’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Spoo all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, noting therein that Copper already has traced 100% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Updates states “Still Higher Gold Ahead” given the weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short back to Long with potentially the 4900s in the balance on this run; but that could well get nixed should the USA/IRN war remain unresolved, (Oil and thus the Dollar then getting the bid). Our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency at this point are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 30mn Parabolics and both Gold’s daily Moneyflow and daily Price Oscillator; also (on a 24-test basis) they are the 1hr Parabolics for both the Euro and Silver, plus the Bond’s 1hr MACD. The Econ Baro’s scheduled 12 incoming metrics for this week begin with the NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices. And this is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season.
The Gold Update: No. 874 – (15 August 2026) – “Still Higher Gold Ahead”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 874th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Still Higher Gold Ahead“
Should you regularly read the website’s daily Prescient Commentary, you already know that Gold this past week (on Monday, 10 August at precisely 18:31 GMT) provisionally eclipsed the 4434 price requisite to finally flip the seemingly endless weekly parabolic Short trend — after 21 laborious weeks — back to Long. ‘Twas confirmed yesterday (Friday) upon Gold settling at 4432. Hence our title: “Still Higher Gold Ahead”. And thus by the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, behold the rightmost encircled blue dot:
“Yeah that’s great to see, mmb, but as I always ask, from here: how high is high?”
Squire, let us initially acknowledge the state of the “on”-again-“off”-again USA/IRN war. Since it all began late last February: when “off”, Gold ascends, but descends when “on”: and our sense is there still shall be more “on” in the year’s balance and perhaps beyond, (although ’tis said that war weaponry is dwindling on both fronts). Nevertheless, this fresh new parabolic Long signal could swiftly fail; note in the above graphic that the new “Flip Trend” price back to Short is 3955, a level that itself shall rise from one week to the next, and which currently is -477 points below today’s 4432. Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 230 points, (the daily 96 points). So by that gauge — barring a comprehensive war-driven Gold fallout wherein the Dollar gets the bid as Oil accelerates higher — there’s likely at minimum another three-to-four weeks for this new Long trend to run.
For still better guidance, let’s go to the history of Gold’s last 10 weekly parabolic Long trends:
Note that list’s first five (starting during 2022-2023) pale in performance when compared to the second five (starting during 2024-2025). Moreover, the most recent Long trends have basically gone up “off the charts” such that you’ll recall our having regularly written that Gold had “gotten ahead of itself”, followed by this year’s high-to-low correction of -29.2% (from 5586 on 29 January to 3955 on 30 June). But specific to this history graphic, at the foot we’ve depicted the “Average” and “Median” maximum Gold gains of respectively 14.3% and 11.9%. Conservatively, let’s go with the latter, in which such vacuum from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend. ‘Course the median duration is 15 weeks, which from today would put us at this year’s StateSide Black Friday (27 November) … and between “Now and Then” –[BeaTles, ’23], the S&P 500 may suffer many-a-black day in reverting to a reasonable valuation, but with an unknown Gold implication … just sayin’.
“That is really stock market bearish, mmb…”
‘Tis, Squire. Barring one’s having been out on Neptune, those paying attention have read much bearishness being cited over “AI” heading to its own “DotCom” moment, (see 2000-2002). But just this past week, the otherwise children’s writing pool over at the once-mighty Barron’s produced a sobering piece entitled: “Stock Markets Beware: AI Funding Plans Have Shades of the Financial Crisis” (see 2008-2009). Think about it: a “double-whammy” repeat likened to both the DotComBomb and FinCrisis, each of which ultimately featured -50% declines for the S&P, (which today would actually get the Index back in line with the aforementioned “reasonable valuation”).
We’re only pointing this out as such “double-whammy” would likely be characterized as a “Black Swan”, during which asset prices could suffer significantly. Recall how it all began near this time in 2008:
“So are you predicting a crash, mmb?”
Specifically to the same time frame, Squire, no. But the classic “reversion to the mean” remains waiting in the wings, perhaps in those of the next Black Swan.
Put it this way: were it all to go wrong by year-end, ‘twouldn’t surprise us a bit. As we oft hear, ’tis merely about “The When” as “corrections” always come ’round again. Further, in addition to today’s extreme equities’ overvaluation — our “live” price/earnings ratio of the all but yieldless S&P 500 now 43.4x — there is the ongoing wildcard of the war.
As for Gold, yes price suffered to a degree in the ’08-’09 Black Swan (only to set a record high come the year 2011). And yes, price has suffered during 2026 when the war has been “on”, albeit as stated time-and-again, price pre-war had become very overvalued even upon reaching our forecast high for this year at 5546 (29 January), indeed moving briefly to 5586, the still-standing All-Time High.
Either way, should Gold’s trend continue to be our friend, (the weekly parabolic Short trend having at last met its end), then again ’tis higher prices we portend. To wit, next we’ve the two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. This graphic of Gold appears so healthy, the Smart Alec Shorts may “dis” it as being “too healthy”. (But if any of them are still around, we always appreciate their being there to take the other side of the trade). However — our bullish bent notwithstanding — there is structural resistance from last April-May in the 4500-4900 zone, up into whatever extent Gold may drill during this new parabolic Long trend. As to the Profile, the 4400s become the goal to hold:
Similar is the overall state of Silver, (her having settled the week at 64.83), although 72-90 (below left) may prove structurally resistive. Initially, we’d like her to hold at least the 64s (below right). As to the white metal’s overall value relative to the yellow metal, per the opening Scoreboard, you can see that today’s Gold/Silver ratio (68.4x) is relatively near to the evolving mean (69.2x). To be sure, both precious metals are trading above their respective Fair Value; but such deviations — either above or below — can last for years if not decades prior to price reversion, (although again, Gold and Silver became excessively extreme vis-à-vis Fair Value this past winter). Here’s Sister Silver’s graphic:
Thus for the precious metals ’tis good news; but not so good for the Econ Baro. Having developed the Economic Barometer back in 1998 (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there was 28 years ago), we were intrigued by its uncanny directional leadership of the S&P 500. But then came COVID which elicited a $7T injection into the U.S. Money Supply (“M2”) that in turn zoomed into the S&P, swiftly increasing its market capitalization by the like $7T … and hence today’s extreme overvaluation. ‘Twas at that injection the newly one-way S&P parted ways with the Baro. But with COVID now folded, the positive correlation between the Baro and S&P has been returning per this year-over-year chart of the two. So we now wait for the S&P to realize ’tis late:
The ongoing downward bent of the Baro was further precipiated this past week as just four of the 11 incoming metrics improved period-over-period. Notably poor readings were in July’s Retail Sales shrinkage and a substantive drop in The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for August. Both suggest consumers are becoming nervous. Too, amongst next week’s batch of 12 metrics comes The Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index for July, for which the consensus is negative, (and not surprisingly so given the down Baro).
To wrap, we’ve the Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
10-Session directional range: up to 4503 (from 4081) = +422 points or +10.3%
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4488 / 4468 / 4450
Gold Currently: 4432, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 96 points)
Trading Support: nearby Market Profile notables: 4406 / 4322 / 4292
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4343
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4196 and rising
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4151
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4028
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 3955
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
In simply summary: think ’tis a good time to be holding Gold? Indeed!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
14 August 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Bond is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. As recently noted, we’re looking for the Bond (109^13) to rise toward 112 as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency cleared their -80% axis (see Market Trends) and indeed continue to rise as price’s downtrend becomes less negative: with inflation somewhat cooling, the Bond can get the bid. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^24 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (itself at 113^05), the Euro -0.011 points “low”, Gold +234 points “high”, Oil +2.39 points “high”, and the Spoo +151 points “high”. Tomorrow’s 874th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall underscore the weekly parabolic Short trend having (after 21 weeks) flipped to Long. The Econ Baro concludes the week with August’s UofM Sentiment Survey, July’s Retail Sales, plus June’s Business Inventories. And we’ve one week remaining in Q2 Earnings Season.
13 August 2026 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Presently, we’ve both the Bond and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Spoo for better than a week has been in a relatively compressed trading range: indeed the EDTR (see Market Ranges) is narrowing, (85 points being today’s expected range, even as the widest actual span so far this week has been but 58 points). For the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower price levels near-term, albeit there is no noticeable breakdown in their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). And today brings wholesale inflation for the Econ Baro via July’s PPI.