Mark

Following three straight days of decline, both precious metals are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, as is Oil; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate. By Market Trends as suggested yesterday, Gold’s linreg has (in real-time) rotated to negative, whilst that for Silver looks to so do by tomorrow despite both metals being up today. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three by the 10-test basis are Gold’s daily Moneyflow, Copper’s 8hr Parabolics, and again Gold’s 30mn MACD, whereas per a 24-test basis we’ve Copper’s 30mn Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD, and the Spoo’s 1hr Parabolics. Eight metrics come due today for the Econ Baro, including April’s Chi PMI, March’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-Favoured” PCE data, plus the first peek at Q1 GDP and the Employment Cost Index.

Presently, the Euro is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. As we’d already seen for Silver, Gold too yesterday traded down into the “Golden Ratio” retracement zone as noted in The Gold Update: Gold’s low thus far in the week is 4568 whilst that for Silver is 71.93; ‘twould appear by week’s end, both precious metals linregs shall have rotated from positive to negative (see Market Trends); as well, Copper’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency confirmed dropping below the +80% axis, indicative of lower prices near-term. The S&P 500 is now 14 consecutive trading sessions as “textbook overbought”; and the Spoo by its Market Value is (in real-time) +427 points above its smooth valuation line. There are varying sources for today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics: to be sure, we’ll get March’s Durable Orders, and maybe a combination of February and March data for Housing Starts/Permits, plus perhaps same for New Home Sales, albeit they also are scheduled for next week … on verra… Then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s “no change” Policy Statement.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, noting therein that Silver already has traced 101% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). Too, Silver’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency continue to fall for the precious metals; indeed Silver has today reached down into the “Golden Ratio” retracement range as cited in the current edition of The Gold Update; as well, both Gold and Silver are now trading below the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles. The S&P 500 has again recorded closing (7174) and intra-day (7179) highs, and is now 13 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 48.8x. The Econ Baro awaits Consumer Confidence for April.

Early on we’ve the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to last week’s decline in the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency for both precious metals such that lower price levels are likely in the near-term offing. The S&P 500 concluded Friday at an all-time closing high of 7165, the intra-day high having been a record 7169; by the Spoo, today’s S&P opening ought be mildly lower; per the Spoo’s 10-day Market Profile, price (currently 7188) has its most volume-dominant Profile support at 7162. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. And whilst nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, ’tis a busy week with 14 scheduled metrics, plus the “no change” FOMC Policy Statement on Wednesday.

Into week’s end we’ve at present Gold, Silver and Oil below today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session is light. Following (per yesterday’s comment) Gold having confirmed on Wednesday the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency having moved below their key +80% axis, price since has dropped to as low as 4672; too, Silver’s “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed moving below their +80% axis; more of course in tomorrow’s 858th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 made a marginal record intraday high yesterday to (precisely) 7147.78, (the prior such high being on 17 April at 7147.52); the Index is now 11 consecutive days “textbook overbought”. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with the revision to April’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

The Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all presently below today’s Neutral Zones; only Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate, noting that Copper already has traced 103% of today’s EDTR (see Market ranges). By Market Trends, ironically Oil is the sole BEGOS component in negative linreg, as today at 94.23 price is well-down from 117.63 peak of three weeks ago. Thus Gold’s linreg is positive, however, its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency confirmed settling below the key +80% level yesterday such that still lower prices “ought be” in the near-term offing. Currently 4733, the mid-4600s would seem a reasonable destination, below which there is trading congestion through 4600-4400 zone; for pure swing consistency, Gold’s best Market Rhythms have been the daily Moneyflow (10-test basis) and the 15mn Moneyflow (24-test basis). For the Econ Baro we’ve just the usual Initial Jobless Claims from the prior week.

All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light, the largest EDTR tracing to this point being Oil at 49% (see Market Ranges). Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the 1hr MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the 15mn Parabolics; Oil’s 21-day linreg trend is slightly becoming more negative as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have fallen below the 0% axis (see Market Trends); and by its Market Profile, Oil (currently 88.77) is trading below its most volume-dominant price for the past fortnight of 89.70. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And Q1 Earnings season for the S&P 500 continues to run at an above-average pace: with 53 constituents thus far having reported, 44 (83%) have improved their quarterly year-over-year bottom lines; at issue, however, remains the dangerously high (futs-adj’d) P/E of 48.2x.

Presently we’ve both precious metals below today’s Neutral Zones; otherwise, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. From an intra-day standpoint since the past week or two, the markets can best be characterized as “messy”. Regardless, let’s go ’round the horn (in real-time) for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is just -0^10 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro 0.013 points “high”, Gold -63 points “low”, Oil -6.16 points “low” (having reverted all the way back to its BEGOS valuation after having been some +34 points “high” at the beginning of April), and the Spoo +457 points “high”, the S&P 500 having completed a fifth consecutive session as extremely “textbook overbought”; too, by our MoneyFlow page (quarterly basis), the S&P “ought be” -597 points lower than ’tis. The Econ Baro looks to March’s Retail Sales and Pending Home Sales, plus Business Inventories for February.

With events in the Middle East taking a negative turn, the BEGOS Markets today featured various “gap” openings, notably Oil which settled Friday at 85.57 opened up at 88.15, Gold from 4849 down to open at 4812 and the Spoo from 7164 down to open at 7103. At present, the Bond, Gold, Silver and Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is above same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to price having nearly reverted back up to its BEGOS Market Value, whereas the S&P 500 having set a record high on Friday remains vastly overvalued by earnings (fundamental) as well as extremely “textbook overbought” (technical). Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with a very light load in the week’s balance of just six incoming metrics. However, Q1 Earnings Seasons really starts to ramp up as its third week gets underway.

Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light. The Bond (currently 113^20) yesterday moved under Market Profile support (114^06 now resistance) and price slid below the Market Magnet (114^01); nonetheless, by its Market Trend, the Bond’s linreg is positive and improving upside consistency given the rising “Baby Blues”. Gold again has been recording a comparatively narrow week; the yellow metal’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) has compressed from 196 points two weeks ago to now 140 points; further insight per tomorrow’s 857th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until next Tuesday. And Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 is off to a well above-average start: of the 26 constituents having thus far reported, 22 (85%) have bettered their quarterly year-over-year bottom lines; problematic is that the nominal level of earnings is too low to support an S&P here at 7041, given the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 47.8x.

The S&P settled above 7000 yesterday at a record closing high of 7023, (intra-day 7026); the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is now 47.6x and the yield 1.126%, (that for the 3mo T-Bill annualized is 3.612%). At present for the BEGOS Markets, both Silver and Copper are above today’s Neutral Zones, the balance of the bunch being within same; session volatility is again light. By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +327 points above its smooth valuation line; the MoneyFlow for the S&P has notably improved so far this week; however by our broadest measure (63 days, i.e. one quarter), the Flow finds the Index +607 points too high. Cac volume for Oil has rolled from May into that for June with priced discounted by -2.80 points. And the Econ Baro completes its early week with metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index and March’s IndProd/CapUtil.

Presently, Oil is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Copper in recent days has regained the 6 handle: currently 6.0950, the red metal’s all-time high of 6.5830 was set this past 29 January; by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, Copper’s Parabolics on the 15mn, 30mn, and 1hr time frames are topping its list. Gold is moving closer to its BEGOS Market Value of 4975, price at present 4839. The S&P 500 yesterday reached up to 6969, the all-time high being 7002 (28 January): the Index has rapidly become extremely “textbook overbought” having just been oversold from 06 March through 02 April and the MoneyFlow having been weak, (although that for yesterday was firm). The Econ Baro looks to April’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index, plus March’s Ex/Im Prices. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

Silver is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is quite light. The Euro yesterday confirmed settling above its BEGOS Market Value for the first time since 29 January, the Dollar Index having in recent days fallen from the 100s into the 98s; our top Market Rhythm by pure swing consistency for the Euro on a 10-test basis is its 30mn MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis the Euro’s two standout studies are its 30mn Moneyflow and 2hr Parabolics. At Market Trends, we’ve now positively-sloped linregs for the Bond, Euro, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; thus negatively-sloped are the linregs for the Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver. The Econ Baro awaits March’s PPI, (which by annualizing the consensus expectation is expected to run well above the Fed’s +2.0% target).

Given the failure of the U.S./Iran talks, ’twas no surprise to see — save for Oil — the seven other BEGOS Markets drop at today’s open: at present, the Bond, EuroCurrencies, Silver and Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones, (Gold and Copper actually are within same), and Oil of course is well-up, currently +8.4% at 103.64. Despite the on-balance negative start to the day, session volatility is to this point light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price’s range as “narrowing”, but the stance of inflation as “harrowing”, such that the Fed in due course this year may have to raise rates. The Econ Baro starts a moderate week of incoming data with March’s Existing Home Sales. And Q1 Earnings Season enters its second week, the financials getting the emphasis.

As we saw ’round this time yesterday, trading in the BEGOS Markets is quite narrow, all eight components at present within today’s Neutral Zones and volatility is very light, albeit in the context that trading ranges have expanded significantly in recent months. Yesterday’s PCE data for February was not Fed-friendly as we’ll further display in tomorrow’s 856th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The leading MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 cautiously suggests lower levels are ahead: by our page thereto, on the one-week basis the Index “ought be” -91 points lower than ’tis (currently 6825), on the one-month basis -139 points lower, and on the one-quarter basis a more dire -807 points lower; as trading/investing entities start to sense this going forward, it can pressure prices. The Econ Baro wraps the week with April’s UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s CPI and Treasury Deficit, plus February’s Factory Orders.

“Quiet” is the watchword for the BEGOS Markets thus far, all eight at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is exceptionally light. That noted, there still exist some near-term valuation extremes are we go ’round the horn for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components, where in real-time we’ve: the Bond -3^19 points “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.015 points “low”, Gold -377 points “low”, Oil +13.79 points “high” and the Spoo -67 points “low”. Yesterday’s net -12.5% drop in Oil was sufficient to confirm price settling below its Market Magnet of 101.50, (currently price 97.52). Yesterday’s MoneyFlow into the S&P 500 was not fully supportive of the +2.5% up move, such leading indicator instead (regressed into S&P points) being +1.7%. The Econ Baro awaits metrics including the “Fed-favoured” PCE data for February, plus that month’s Personal Income/Spending and Wholesale Inventories, as well as the final revision to Q4 GDP.

Suspension for two weeks of the war sees Oil down as much as -17.5% from last evening’s settle, current price 94.80 and below its Neutral Zone for today; above same are all the seven other BEGOS Markets, and session volatility (not surprisingly) is mostly robust. The Dollar Index is down more than -1% for third time year-to-date; the EuroCurrencies thus are getting a strong bid, the Euro itself by Market Trends finding its linreg having rotated from negative to positive, (that for the Swiss Franc lagging in such respect). Gold up to 4888 is nearly a three-week high: recall that Gold by its BEGOS Market Value has been deeply oversold, such real-time reading still finding price -285 points below its smooth valuation line. And the Spoo is firm such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould so do +2.7%. Whilst nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, late in the session we’ve the FOMC 17/18 March meeting minutes.

Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility to this point is light. By their Market Profiles, the Bond, Swiss Franc and Spoo all moved yesterday above their most volume-dominant prices for the past 10 trading days, whilst Silver dropped below same, albeit today there so far lacks much continued direction. Looking at our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, Copper’s 6hr Moneyflow and the Euro’s 1hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis the leaders are Copper’s 15mn Parabolics, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 30mn Price Oscillator and the Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow. The Econ Baro awaits February’s Durable Orders, plus late in the session that month’s Consumer Credit. And Q1 Earnings Season is officially underway: for Q4, 71% (an above-average pace) of S&P 500 reporting constituents bettered their bottom line of Q4 a year earlier.

‘Tis Easter Monday on this side of The Pond, but StateSide ’tis a full trading day for the BEGOS Markets, for which at present we’ve Copper as the sole component outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s record Q1 price volatility, overwhelming that which we’ve seen across the prior 25 years. And whilst by Market Trends the linregs remain negative for all of the BEGOS except Oil, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising notably for the Metals Triumvirate, the Bond and Spoo. The Econ Baro has a very busy week of 15 incoming metrics, including February’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data (Thursday) such that we’ll complete our inflation table through that month. Today for the Baro comes March’s ISM(Svc) Index.

As noted yesterday, whilst today is a holiday for western bourses, because of the exceptional occurrence of this Good Friday falling on the first Friday of the month when StateSide Payrolls are released, the Bond, Currencies and Spoo are in abbreviated trading sessions such that they can respond to the data; none of those BEGOS Markets have (as yet) moved materially. Tomorrow brings the 855th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update, indeed our month and quarter-ending piece. Happy Easter!

‘Tis the final trading day of the week, wherein at present — save for Oil being above its Neutral Zone for today — we’ve nothing but red for the seven other BEGOS Markets, all below said Zones; session volatility is mostly robust following the U.S.’ intent to ramp up war operations toward completion. As provisionally noted yesterday, both the Bond and Gold have now confirmed their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency having crossed above the key -80% axis: however both markets are well down today (Bond -0.8%, Gold -3.8%). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our leaders (10-test basis) are Copper’s 6hr Moneyflow and both Gold’s 12hr Parabolics and 1hr Price Oscillator; too, (24-test basis), we’ve the non-BEGOS Yen’s 15mn Moneyflow, Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and Silver’s 30mn Parabolics. Today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include February’s Trade Deficit. Whilst western bourses are closed tomorrow, we’ll nonetheless have a brief comment, noting that StateSide Payrolls shall be reported, for which the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo have an abbreviated Friday session so as to respond to the data.

Yesterday’s +2.9% net gain in the S&P 500 was the largest since 13 May a year ago (+3.3%); that for Gold of +4.2% was the most since 03 February (+6.2%). At present, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, yesterday both Silver and Copper confirmed their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency having moved above their key -80% axes, indicative of still higher prices near-term; today, the Blues for Gold have provisionally moved up above same. Oil (98.36) has traded down to just above its most volume-dominant Market Profile price of 98.00. Scheduled metrics for the Econ Baro are March’s ADP employment data and ISM(Mfg) Index, February’s Retail Sales, and January’s Business Inventories.

The final trading day of Q1 finds at present the Bond, Gold, Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again moderate. The Bond yesterday moved above what had been volume-dominant Market Profile resistance (112^22), price now a full above above that at 113^22; similarly, Copper moved above same (5.470) to now 5.509; both markets however — as remains the case for every BEGOS component except Oil — are in negative linreg (see Market Trends). Gold (presently 4591) is just beneath its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor of 4598; too Gold is still considerably below its BEGOS Market Value of 5243, that measure itself having begun to roll over to the downside. The Econ Baro awaits March’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

Into the new week we’ve at present the Bond, Gold and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update depicts price as being (by percentage) about equidistant (i.e. “♫ Stuck in the Middle with Gold ♫” between its BEGOS Market Value (some +14% higher than price) and its Fair Value (some -14% lower than price). As to our Market Values for all five primary BEGOS Components (in real-time): we’ve the Bond as -6^30 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.050 points “low”, Gold as -729 points “low”, Oil as +26.58 points “high”, and the Spoo as -620 points “low”. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 14 incoming scheduled as the week unfolds.

The Bond currently is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are all three element of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again light. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from April into that for June with +33 points of fresh premium; more on Gold, ‘natch, in tomorrow’s 854th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday moved below its most volume-dominant price (6639) for the past fortnight (see Market Profiles); as fundamentally expensive as is the S&P 500 (“live” futs-adj’d P/E 43.2x), the Index is “textbook oversold” through the last 15 trading days and the Spoo itself is (in real-time) -514 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro wraps its quiet week with the March revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey.

The Bond, Gold and Silver all are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Swiss Franc by its Market Profile yesterday moved below what had been volume-dominant support at 1.280: price is now 1.273; by Market Trends, as is the case for every BEGOS component except for Oil, the Swiss Franc and Euro are in negative linreg, but both are becoming less consistently down as the Dollar Index keeps falling back from the 100 level (currently 99.515). The S&P 500 is basically down -6% from its all-time high (7002): however by our MoneyFlow page, the Index (6592) “ought be” -95 points lower by the five-day measure, -196 points lower by the 21-day measure, and -737 points lower by the 63-day measure; the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 44.3x. Today for the Econ Baro we’ve just the usual Initial Jobless Claims from the prior week.

Both the Swiss Franc and Copper presently are below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Going ’round the horn of Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we show (in real-time) the Bond as -7^15 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.053 points “low”, Gold as -721 points “low”, Oil as +17.43 points “high” and the Spoo as -451 points “low”. Oil yesterday by Market Trends saw the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency drop below the key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices near-term: obviously the wildcard in this case is the war; thus a Short is fine, but with a firm stop in line(!); by Oil’s Market Profile, the most volume-dominant price resistor is 94.20, (vs. current price at 88.61). Today’s Econ Baro looks to February’s Ex/Im Prices and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

No, Gold’s intra-day drop yesterday of -9.6% was not a record; and even as Gold recovered to finish the session just -1.8%, the low trade of the day at precisely 4100 was “only” +210 points above Fair Value of 3890 … just in case you’re scoring at home. At present, Gold is in its Neutral Zone for today, as are six of the other BEGOS Markets, Copper being the sole exception below same; session volatility vis-à-vis yesterday has cooled to moderate. Topping our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow and 30mn Price Oscillator, plus the Bond’s 30mn Moneyflow; on a 24-test basis, the leaders are Silver’s 2hr Parabolics, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr MACD, and Gold’s 4hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro awaits the usual revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor costs.

Gold is -7% this morning having traded down into the 4100s: The Gold Update specifies the yellow metal having taken a double-shot of technical adversity (parabolics and MACD on the weeklies), including a table of how typically “low is low” suggestive of the 4100s; it didn’t take long; Gold is now not that far above Fair Value (3890), albeit is more than -1,000 points below its BEGOS Market Value (5275). Obviously, at present Gold is also below today’s Neutral Zone as too are Silver, Copper, the Spoo, the Bond and the Euro; Oil is above same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. With the Spoo -1.4%, the S&P 500 would at this instant open down -0.9%. The Econ Baro begins its somewhat subdued week with January’s Construction Spending.

Into week’s end, we’ve at present the Euro below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold yesterday traded down to 4505, its lowest price since 02 February; for pure swing consistency, Gold (on a 10-test basis) by Market Rhythms has been featuring the 15-minute time frame on both the Parabolics and MACD studies; more on the yellow metal’s newly negative near-term stance in tomorrow’s 853rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 from its 7002 record high (28 January) through yesterday’s low (6558) has retraced -6.3%; a full -10% correction would be completed come 6302. The Econ Baro wrapped up its week yesterday. And today marks the arrival of Northern Hemisphere spring (14:46 GMT).

Gold, Silver and Oil are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of th BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session is moderate. As posted last evening on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short; price’s low trade thus far today (4749) last traded on 06 February. At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil, the seven other BEGOS components all are in negative linreg. By Market Profiles, both the Euro and Spoo yesterday moved below their most volume-dominant support levels (1.157 and 6754 respectively). The Econ Baro wraps its week this Thursday with incoming metrics that include March’s Philly Fed Index, plus January’s New Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories, and (purportedly) Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are the Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 completed an eighth consecutive day as “textbook oversold” and would see a bounce (were it to open at this instant) of +0.6%; clearly however, the Index broadly remains overvalued, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this moment 45.8x. Still, by Market Values, the Spoo is -336 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold’s 21-day linreg in real-time has provisionally rotated to negative, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits wholesale inflation for February via the PPI, and purportedly (again) January’s Factory Orders; then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for we expect no change in rates, albeit with a cautionary note toward stubborn inflation.

Copper is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. For the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time) by their Market Values: the Bond shows as -6^11 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro as 0.070 points “low”, Gold as -195 points “low”, Oil as +29.95 points “high”, and the Spoo as -410 points low: obviously all these extremes have largely been elicited by responses to the war and firming Dollar. Specific to the Spoo, it (on Friday) confirmed a negative daily EMA has crossover: thus commencing from yesterday’s open (6660), we may near-term see 6609 trade on the downside as the last 10 such crossovers — either Long or Short — have distanced at least 50 points of follow-through travel; (see the Market Rhythm chart at the foot of BEGOS Markets > S&P 500). February’s Pending Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.

Both Copper and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility continues to this hour as moderate. The Gold Update underscores price having fallen through the first two war weeks, and is again lower a bit this morning: the yellow metal has completed a -10% correction from its All-Time High (5586 on 29 January). As noted, Copper is higher today, albeit has not regained the volume-dominant 5.8050 level down through which it fell on Friday (see Market Profiles). April Oil has returned above the 100 handle for the first time since last Monday, however cac volume is now rolling into that for May at a price discount of -1.90; too, cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from March into that for June with +49 points of premium. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices, plus February’s IndProd/CapUtil.

As was the case at this time yesterday, we’ve both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, as too are Silver, Copper and the Spoo; the Bond, Gold and Oil are within same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Gold in its weakening uptrend (see the falling “Baby Blues” at Market Trends) has moved below its smooth valuation line, now in real-time by -95 points (see Market Values); more of course in tomorrow’s 852nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 has closed lower for eight of the past 11 trading days; technically it remains “textbook oversold”, albeit is still well-overvalued by the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of presently 44.8x; from the Index’s all-time high of 7002 (28 January), it has corrected by as much as -5.2% (to 6636 on 09 March). Contract volume for the Euro and Swiss Franc is rolling from March into that for June. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with incoming metrics of March’s UofM Sentiment Survey, January’s Durable Orders, Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” PCE data, along with the first revision to Q4’s GDP.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all presently beneath their respective neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, four BEGOS components are in negative linreg (the Bond, Euro, Swiss and Spoo), the other four positively-sloped (Gold, Silver Copper and Oil); however, given the volatile lurches of late, the “Baby Blues” in some cases are less consistent than the norm. Gold has slipped back below volume-dominant support of 5195 (see Market Profiles), as have both the Euro and Swiss Franc, the Dollar getting a mild bid today. Our top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr Moneyflow, and on a 24-test basis again the Yen’s 2hr MACD. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include January’s Housing Starts/Permits and Trade Deficit.

The Euro is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Gold is teasing either side of its Market Profile’s most volume-dominant price of 5195, (current price 5202); should such support fail, we’d look near-term down to 5105; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 153 points; for pure swing consistency, Gold’s best Market Rhythm has been the 4hr Parabolics (10-test basis) and 6hr Moneyflow (24-test basis). The S&P 500 has on balance worked down such as to become mildly “textbook oversold”; the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) -313 points below its smooth valuation line. And for the Econ Baro we await the first indications of February inflation via the CPI, even as the PCE for January shan’t be released (purportedly) until Friday; too for February we get the Treasury Budget late in the session.

Following yesterday’s whirl ’round recovery across the BEGOS Markets — Oil notably giving back all of its extraordinary gain on the day — we’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver above their Neutral Zones, whilst the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. Save for Oil, at Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for the seven other BEGOS components. The Bond, after trading as anticipated down into the 115s, recovered enough to clear its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor at 116^12, price now 116^17; for the past two trading days, the Bond’s 15mn Moneyflow has been our best Market Rhythm for that component by pure swing consistency. The Econ Baro gets its busy week underway today with February’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for Oil (+10.1%) which is above its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets all are below same; session volatility is robust, Oil having traced 473% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores last week’s price decline as was anticipated; the yellow metal today (-1.4%) is just about in sync (+28 points) with its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price reverting to that “mean”; for the other primary BEGOS Components: the Bond is -2^27 points below valuation, indeed trading in the 115s as we suggested ‘twould; the Euro shows as -0.056 points below same, the Spoo is below by -442 points, but Oil is far above valuation by +37 points. Despite the Spoo’s large deviation below its valuation line, the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P remains critically high at 44.4x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 16 scheduled metrics as the week unfolds.

Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three (on a 10-test basis) are Gold’s 30mn MACD, the Euro’s 8hr Parabolics and same for the non-BEGOS Yen; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s 2hr MACD and 1hr Parabolics, plus Gold’s 4hr Parabolics. Specific to the Spoo, its most consistent Rhythm has been (10-tests) the 15mn Price Oscillator and (24-tests) daily Moneyflow. Tomorrow brings our 851st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, in which we’ll emphasize (as was rather anticipated) price now being lower than ’twas pre-war. Finally for the Econ Baro, we’ve sources that conflict (the government “shutdown” hangover still affecting the data flow) as to what actually gets reported today: to be sure, metrics shall include Payrolls data for February along with Retail Sales and Consumer Credit for January; too, there may one or more reports as to various Inventories measures and Factory Orders.

The Bond, EuroCurrencies and Copper are presently all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower prices: currently 116^15, an excursion from here down into the 115s wouldn’t be untoward; the yield on the underlying 30yr Bond itself (4.716%) has been increasing this week such that its MACD is poised to make a positive crossing; overhead Bond resistance is 117^00 (see Market Profiles). Meanwhile, the yield on the S&P 500 is 1.155% and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 45.9x. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro we’ve January’s Ex/Im Prices (and purportedly that month’s still “shutdown” delayed Factory Orders), plus Q4’s initial Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Both the Bond and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are (save for the Euro) all the other BEGOS Markets, and volatility is moderate. Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, Gold settled Friday at 5296; price Monday then peaked at 5434 before settling yesterday at 5100, thus recording yet another geo-political “spike n’ plunge” for the yellow metal. By Market Magnets, the following BEGOS components crossed below that leading measure yesterday: the Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; too, the Bond crossed beneath its BEGOS Market Value. Today (in real-time) by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are falling for every BEGOS Market except Oil, which yesterday reached as high as 77.98 after settling pre-conflict on Friday at 67.83; notable volume-dominant Market Profile supports for Oil are 72.00 and 66.50. For the Econ Baro we await February’s ADP Employment data and the month’s ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.