Mark

The Gold Update: No. 876 – (29 August 2026) – “For Gold We Favour Adhesion into S&P Crash Season”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 876th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“For Gold We Favour Adhesion into S&P Crash Season“

Yes:  following five consecutive up weeks for Gold, this past one was down, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 4504.  ‘Twas Gold’s fourth-worst weekly performance (-3.4%) of the 34 full trading weeks year-to-date, yesterday alone being the 12th-worst single session (-3.2%) thus far through 2026’s 166 trading days.  Fortunately, per the upper Scoreboard’s right-hand panel, the week’s dip actually appears nothing more than a blip.

No:  we are not predicting an imminent outright crash for the S&P 500.  However, ’tis seasonally “that time of year” with crash conditions — certainly by lack of both supportive earnings and money supply — more acute than across any and all of Black Tuesday in ’29, the Garzarelli Cavatelli in ’87, the Asian Contagion in ’97, the Russian Debt Crisis in ’98, the DotComBomb in ’00, the FinCrisis in ’08 and the Ovid to Covid in ’20.  Let’s face it, folks:  the dough ain’t there.  We’re simply awaiting the fear.

Specific to Gold, just as it had rallied two weeks ago upon StateSide SecTreas Scott “Buy Back Bonds!” Bessent’s move to lower yields, price yesterday careened back down upon FedHead Kevin “The Warrior “ Warsh in Wyoming having inferred the Federal Open Market Committee may have to vote to tighten money should inflation not recede toward the desired annualized 2% target.  In fact, his stated current inflation rate (Personal Consumption Expenditures basis) of 3.7% matches our overall “12-Month Summation” average through July as we see here:

However, our “July Annualized” column averages to just 1.8%, aided by slowing headline inflation per both the retail measure’s Consumer Price Index and the wholesale measure’s Producer Price Index.

“Well, maybe July was just a ‘one-off month’, mmb…”

Seasonally, Squire, July can be rather subdued, notably by the PPI headline inflation measure.  The “Great American Sap” (hat-tip dear old Dad) has towed his boat to the lake to vegetate and drink 12-oz. cans of Coors for two weeks rather than constructively engage in any material economic stimulus.

Such digression aside, here is another view from one year ago-to-date of each monthly inflation metric annualized (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means multiplied by 12).  The red axis is the Fed’s preference for 2% inflation, toward which — following what was a deflationary June — the metrics for July converged:

Either way, from the conventional wisdom Gold perspective, lower rates/yields are friendly as they depress the Dollar, although vice-versa are inhospitable.  Recall as well from last week’s missive our graphic of Gold having reached well above its BEGOS Market Value (as also depicted in today’s opening Scoreboard), such that price was potentially at a near-term peak.  Still, despite Gold’s poor performance for this past week, the broader picture continues on balance in resumption of upside form per the weekly bars and rightmost blue parabolic Long trend dots: 

As well, it being month-end (less one trading day), let’s go to our year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with premier of its metals equities.  And the leverage of the latter is clearly on display as we find Gold itself +30%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +43%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +48%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +60%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +62%, along with Newmont (NEM) and the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) both +77%.  Livin’ large by the leverage of late are the equities lads!

We’ve more in maintaining our month-end mode with the year-to-date BEGOS Market Standings.  Just a month ago, Gold was third-from-the bottom, -5.4%: now ’tis in fourth position, +4.0%; however, we again find Silver in the cellar.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver… especially with Cousin Cooper +15.0%… “Got Silver?” (hint-hint, wink-wink, nudge-nudge):

And in keeping with the BEGOS bunch, let’s go ’round the horn across their respective past month (21 trading days) wherein seven of the eight components (save for Copper, which as just cited has already been having an excellent year) are sporting positive grey trendlines.  That stated, we are near-term wary of the baby blue dots that depict trend consistency now rolling over notably for Gold, Silver, and the Euro.  As you regular readers and website followers know, our leading indicator of the “Baby Blues” falling below the +80% level portends still lower prices near-term (as was the case for the Euro at Wednesday’s settle).  Neither those for Gold nor Silver at this writing have (yet) broken below +80%.  But should they so do in the next day or two, Gold’s nearby support structure starts from just above here (4504) at 4509 down to 4366, and for Silver (currently 66.26) from 66.98 down to 62.45.  That said, hardly do we think one ought abandon the precious metals during this near-term adversity.  (As to the S&P 500, did we mention ’tis historically “Crash Season”?)

“Good one, mmb.  Here’s your picture.”

In further turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right, the prices of both precious metals traveled southerly this past week, their respective white lines denoting Friday’s settles.  Volume-dominant level supporters and resistors are as labeled:

However, having recently stopped moving southerly is the Baro.  Only four of the Economic Barometer’s incoming metrics for the past week were worse period-over-period.  BUT:  included therein was the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for August, which slipped from an “expansion” reading in July of 57.6 to now a “contraction” reading of 47.1.  Except for the onset of Covid per the April 2020 reading, this August’s negative Chi PMI swing was the worst since that into February of 2015, following which the S&P 500 fell by as much as -11.5% over the ensuing six months … just in case you’re scoring at home.  And again, we now sit on the threshold of the S&P’s potential “Crash Season” … albeit of the aforementioned bevy of occurrences, there’ve been only two of -50% so far this century.  So, not to worry.  Here’s the Baro:

So whilst the herd blows bubbles as the S&P itself bubbles, let’s instead return to something of substance:  Gold by its monthly structure so far this decade.  Oh to be sure, Gold went through a stage of bubbling earlier this year in reaching the All-Time High of 5586 (29 January) — then +44% above Fair Value — only to thereby return, (as you’ll herein recall), come 24 June.

Regardless, as currencies have come and gone over the centuries, throughout there’s always been Gold:  good ol’ Gold!  Again, it has had periodic bubbles; but they’ve been relatively “Tiny Bubbles” –[’66] compared to those of Dollar debasement, debt and (understatement) S&P.  Here’s the structure graphic, the rightmost candle showing an on-balance strong August, (and albeit with one trading day still to go), Gold’s best net month (+8.8% even in accounting for Friday’s demise) since February (+9.6%).  You tell ’em in Golden style there, Don!

To sum it up, a bit more near-term Gold slippage is what we envisage, but hardly enough to flip the broader-based weekly parabolic from Long to back to Short:  ‘twould entail from here a further fall of some -10%, whereas we’re instead keenly eyeing the 4900s to trade on this overall upside run.

‘Course, that in the following context would be modest.  Given (per the opening Scoreboard) the ratio of the S&P 500’s market capitalization/liquid money supply being 2.9x, plus the ever-expansive insolvency of the U.S. Treasury, we provide this calculation, with which you can impress your friends at next weekend’s StateSide Labor Day BBQs:

Gold today:  $4,504/oz. (Fair Value $3,990/oz.);

“Print” $45.5T to make S&P investors “whole” were the Index liquidated today;
 and
“Print” $40.1T to make the U.S. Treasury “whole” were its debt paid down today;

…a little drumroll please…

Resultant Fair Value for Gold:  $18,365/oz.

Or, as aforestated:

Adhere to Gold!

Cheers!

…m…

28 August 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility for the session is again light. Yesterday, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed having slipped below their key +80% axis: currently 1.1655, we’d watch for the Euro to test near-term the underlying 1.1628-1.1580 zone. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three currently are (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s daily Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Copper’s 2hr Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) they are Copper’s 15mn Parabolics and both Oil’s 15mn Parabolics and 6hr Parabolics. Gold is mildly net down for the week, although very comfortably within its recently established weekly parabolic Long trend: more tomorrow in the 876th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with August’s Chi PMI and the usual revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey. And FedChair Warsh makes the annual KC Fed address in Jackson Hole.

27 August 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Both the Swiss Franc and Copper have slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Cac volumes are rolling today from September into December for both the Bond (at a -0^16 discount) and Silver (at at +0.800 premium) . By Market Values (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond (basis December) is -2^18 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold +441 points “high”, Oil -2.11 points “low” and the Spoo -22 points “low”. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 42.8x and the yield 1.085%, whereas that for the one-year T-Bill is 4.010%. The sole metric today for the Econ Baro is the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

26 August 2026 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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The Euro and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Copper: the latter’s cac volume is rolling today from September into December (with a +0.1000 premium); session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Copper yesterday broke above volume-dominant Market Profile support at 6.7100 (basis December, price currently 6.8610). Following our bearish bias yesterday for Oil, price has since notably dropped from 84.22 (at our post) to as low as 80.08, essentially through the stated structural support zone; price also has passed below its BEGOS Market Value, below what had been volume-dominant support at 8230, and down through the Market Magnet of 83.88. For the Spoo, its price compression is evident by having traced a full EDTR (see Market Ranges) but once across the past three weeks, even as the EDTR has declined during that period from 107 to 65 for today. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro encompassing the first revision to Q2 GDP, plus Durable Orders for July along with Personal Income/Spending and the month’s “Fed-Favoured” PCE data.

25 August 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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Oil is presently below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is the Spoo; amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, those two continue to have the best correlation, which is negative; overall session volatility is moderate. Oil (84.22) yesterday slipped beneath its most volume-dominant Market Profile support level of 85.00, and in real-time Oil’s 12hr MACD (which is its best Market Rhythm per our Oil page) is crossing to negative: the last five such Short crossovers have each minimally produced (given hindsight) downside profit of $4k/cac within an average duration of some three weeks; structural support for Oil appears to run from 84.61 to 80.09; still, Oil’s 21-day linreg remains positive with its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency rising, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits August’s Consumer Confidence and July’s New Home Sales.

24 August 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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The week begins finding at present both the Bond and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update accounts for price’s push given the StateSide Treasury’s accelerating longer-term debt repurchasing; today’s high thus far of 4717 is Gold’s best level since14 May. Q2 Earnings Season has concluded finding 79% of reporting S&P 500 constituents having beaten their Q2 bottom lines of a year ago: that ranks second-best across the past 12 reporting quarters; the fly in the ointment remains the “live” P/E of 43.1x suggestive of at least a -40% “correction” simply to bring valuation into reasonable line with earnings. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics scheduled through the balance of the week.

The Gold Update: No. 875 – (22 August 2026) – “Gold and Other Bits Get the Contra-Buck Bid”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 875th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold and Other Bits Get the Contra-Buck Bid“

Recall from last week’s piece “Still Higher Gold Ahead” our confirmation of a new Gold weekly parabolic Long trend, price then 4432.  Therein, we historically depicted the maximum percentage price increases and durations of the prior 10 such Long trends (since August ’22), enabling us to extrapolate as follows:

  • “Conservatively … from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend.”

And straightaway, Gold went on to settle yesterday (Friday) at 4662:  that is already 44% of the distance to 4959 in just the first week of what we calculated would reasonably take some 15 weeks.  “Conservatively” indeed!  For those of you scoring at home, by both percentage (+5.2%) and points (+230), ’twas Gold’s third-best of the 33 full trading weeks year-to date.

Whilst we at The Gold Update would like to take a bow for inspiring the rally, a hat-tip of deference instead is due to StateSide SecTreas Scott “Buy Back Bonds!” Bessent, whose Wednesday announcement (12:30 GMT) to repurchase longer-term U.S. debt for that of shorter duration sent Gold soaring.  Through Wednesday’s remaining trading hours, Gold leapt intra-day as much as +159 points (+3.6%) post-announcement.

“Well don’t cut yourself too short, mmb, ’cause Gold was as much as up 61 points before Bessent…”

(And conspiratorially, Squire, one wonders which entities already had been buying … but we digress).

Regardless, the U.S. yield curve having rotated from negative just a few years back to positive prudently supports lowering the Treasury’s potential payout (assuming the usual buyers are there).  ‘Course the big BUT becomes the less-yielding Dollar in turn losing appeal, thus Gold getting the bid.  BOOM!  Why, even Bitcoin benefitted in a buying binge, breaking back (again) above our “fib support zone” as the rightmost weekly bar “Sayled” higher:

“So are you REALLY jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon mmb???”

We remain strictly an ongoing observer, Squire, the point in this case being non-dollar money pools across the liquidity spectrum benefitting from the Buck’s bad luck in recording its fourth-worst weekly percentage loss this year. Conversely for the €uro, ’twas its fifth-best, the Swiss Franc its second-best, and Bitcoin its best weekly net percentage gain (+22.6%) since that ending 01 March 2024.

As aforementioned, ‘twas Gold’s third-best week of the year as the fresh parabolic Long trend kicked into yet a higher gear.  Big Numbers for Big Gold here by the weekly bars as they appear:

But perhaps too big, too fast?  As pro-Gold as we are, ’tis upon the ground that one’s feet ought be bound.  To be sure, the yellow metal zoomed up this past week on the legitimate fundamental of Dollar weakness, (albeit we’ve demonstrated over the years that Gold plays no currency favourites even as Dollar debasement is the primary driver of Fair Value).  That stated, too, we’ve our BEGOS Market Value for Gold depicted as 4167 in the opening Scoreboard.  For additional context, here next are Gold’s daily closes from one year ago-to-date, the emphasis therein being on the oscillative peaks in the lower panel.  They are connected with respective red lines to price’s peaks.  Whilst we’re not necessarily at a peak today, the points’ deviation of price above its smooth valuation line is again becoming extreme, indeed the most so since the six consecutive trading-day span from this past 22 January into the All-Time Intra-Day High of 5586 on 29 January:

What can stem Gold’s recent robust uptrend?  Two non-technical factors come to mind:

  • Next week’s array of 11 incoming metrics for the Economic Barometer includes the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for July.  Consensus calls for increases (+0.1% headline, +0.2% core) over those of a completely benign June, such uptrend then perhaps becoming construed as Gold negative.  And there are a number of saber-rattling Federal Reserve officials of late with an eye towards raising The Bank’s Funds rate.  Let’s see how FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh this next Friday addresses any notion in Jackson Hole of jacking up rates.

  • As the USA/IRN war seems on the path to “inevitibly” re-heat, as herein oft stated, the bid for Oil shall re-elicit the bid for the Dollar, which during warring days has been Gold negative.  ‘Twould be catalytic to close that gap as just shown between Gold’s price and its BEGOS Market Value.  Yes, Gold has only just embarked on its new weekly parabolic Long trend; but down weeks within overall uptrends come with the territory:  Gold’s previous Long trend lasted 14 weeks in which five were down; it happens.

The point is:  we don’t see the new Long trend being “Short-lived”; but hardly do see it as simply uni-directionally up.

Meanwhile, trying to buck being what had recently seemed uni-directionally down is the Econ Baro.  12 metrics came into the Baro this past week, of which eight were better period-over-period, the notable standouts being July’s Building Permits and the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index, the latter having reported a positive bias for only the fourth time in the past ten months.  As to the Building Permits, they beat consensus and those for June, which were also revised upward:  this may be positive for August’s Housing Starts that for July missed consensus and were less than June, those therein revised lower.  Thus in going to the Econ Baro, let’s cue “If I had a hammer” –[The Weavers, ’50]:

To our two-panel Gold graphic we go, featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Remember when the baby blue dots signaled a “buy” (upon crossing above the -80% axis) per the 02 July close at 4136?  Price today is +12.7% higher.  And the Profile’s notable volume-dominant support levels are now 4547 and 4450:

Sister Silver has been a bit less robust on her recent upside run in not having reached May’s higher levels (as already has Gold).  Yet similar to Gold, her “Baby Blues” (below left) “buy” came per 30 June’s close at 59.05; today she’s +16.9% higher at 69.01.  As for her Profile (below right), 64.95 stands as her most volume-dominant supporter:

Toward wrapping, we just had the closing of Q2 Earnings Season.  Specific to the S&P 500’s 503 constituents, 443 reported within the calendar season, of which 349 (79%) bettered their bottom lines from Q2 a year ago:  that by percentage improvement ranks second-best across the past 12 reporting quarters.  ‘Tis the good news.

However, you regular readers therefore know the bad news:  the overall level of earnings remains significantly insufficient to support an S&P yielding but 1.090% with our “live” (ttm) price/earnings ratio of now 43.1x, which in turn is +70% higher than ’twas when conceived at 25.4x back in January 2013.  (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that is mathematically suggestive of a correction in the S&P of worse than -40%).  Or to reprise from “The Eiger Sanction” –[Universal, ’75] what Reiner Schöne (as Karl Freytag) exclaimed to Michael Grimm (as Anderl Meyer) and Clint Eastwood (as Jonathan Hemlock) whilst all were desperately clinging to the iconic north face:  “The ice is cracking!!”

But Gold is cracklin’!!

Cheers!

…m…

21 August 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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The Euro plus the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session again is light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, our best current correlation continues between Oil and the Spoo as negative; Oil’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics whilst for the Spoo ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; and the Spoo has slipped below its BEGOS Market Value for the first time since 31 July, suggestive of lower prices near-term: structural support for the Spoo spans from 7632 to 7324. Gold (4622) is up to its highest level since 29 May: more tomorrow in the 875th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; and ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.

20 August 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

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At present, we’ve both the Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s StateSide Treasury notification toward buying back longer-term maturities gave significant boosts to the currencies and metals: specifically for Gold, in real-time ’tis trading +390 points above its BEGOS Market Value; such prior extreme was in the run to last January’s record high (5586), after which price fell considerably over the ensuing months, (not that we envision a like pullback this time ’round); that said, some retrenchment whilst still maintaining the new broader weekly parabolic Long trend would be reasonable to expect, especially with indications of the war being extended such that Oil brings a bid again for the Dollar. The Econ Baro concludes its week today (Thursday) with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index, plus July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index.

19 August 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms, leading the pack for pure swing consistency is the Spoo’s 30mn MACD: its last 10 crossings (since 11 August) have yielded an intra-signal max profit/max adversity ratio of 5.5x. Gold, having reached well-above its BEGOS Market Value after being better than +300 points (now +234 in real-time), reverted yesterday such as to fall below its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 4450 as well as slip below its Market Magnet of 4393; such reversion is normal, and moreover, the new weekly parabolic Long trend remains well intact, the “out-of-range” 3955 level being this week’s reversal price. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, although the FOMC’s Minutes from its 28/29 July meeting come due late in the session: because the actual Policy Statements under FedHead Warsh are comparably brief, the Minutes take on more scrutiny than in prior years.

18 August 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Euro, Silver, Copper and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Bond has not risen toward our 112 notion as rising yield desires continue to pressure price: we’ll continue to mind the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency there; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm currently is (10-test basis) the 30mn Parabolics and (24-test basis) the 1hr MACD. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for all five primary BEGOS components we’ve: the Bond showing as -4^27 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as +297 points “high”, Oil as +4.97 points “high” and the Spoo as +55 points “high”. Today the Econ Baro receives a bevy of July reports encompassing Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil, and Pending Home Sales.

17 August 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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We’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Spoo all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, noting therein that Copper already has traced 100% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Updates states “Still Higher Gold Ahead” given the weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short back to Long with potentially the 4900s in the balance on this run; but that could well get nixed should the USA/IRN war remain unresolved, (Oil and thus the Dollar then getting the bid). Our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency at this point are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 30mn Parabolics and both Gold’s daily Moneyflow and daily Price Oscillator; also (on a 24-test basis) they are the 1hr Parabolics for both the Euro and Silver, plus the Bond’s 1hr MACD. The Econ Baro’s scheduled 12 incoming metrics for this week begin with the NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices. And this is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season.

The Gold Update: No. 874 – (15 August 2026) – “Still Higher Gold Ahead”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 874th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Still Higher Gold Ahead“

Should you regularly read the website’s daily Prescient Commentary, you already know that Gold this past week (on Monday, 10 August at precisely 18:31 GMT) provisionally eclipsed the 4434 price requisite to finally flip the seemingly endless weekly parabolic Short trend — after 21 laborious weeks — back to Long.  ‘Twas confirmed yesterday (Friday) upon Gold settling at 4432.  Hence our title:  “Still Higher Gold Ahead”.  And thus by the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, behold the rightmost encircled blue dot:

“Yeah that’s great to see, mmb, but as I always ask, from here:  how high is high?”

Squire, let us initially acknowledge the state of the “on”-again-“off”-again USA/IRN war.  Since it all began late last February:  when “off”, Gold ascends, but descends when “on”:  and our sense is there still shall be more “on” in the year’s balance and perhaps beyond, (although ’tis said that war weaponry is dwindling on both fronts).  Nevertheless, this fresh new parabolic Long signal could swiftly fail; note in the above graphic that the new “Flip Trend” price back to Short is 3955, a level that itself shall rise from one week to the next, and which currently is -477 points below today’s 4432.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 230 points, (the daily 96 points).  So by that gauge — barring a comprehensive war-driven Gold fallout wherein the Dollar gets the bid as Oil accelerates higher — there’s likely at minimum another three-to-four weeks for this new Long trend to run.

For still better guidance, let’s go to the history of Gold’s last 10 weekly parabolic Long trends:

 

Note that list’s first five (starting during 2022-2023) pale in performance when compared to the second five (starting during 2024-2025).  Moreover, the most recent Long trends have basically gone up “off the charts” such that you’ll recall our having regularly written that Gold had “gotten ahead of itself”, followed by this year’s high-to-low correction of -29.2% (from 5586 on 29 January to 3955 on 30 June).  But specific to this history graphic, at the foot we’ve depicted the “Average” and “Median” maximum Gold gains of respectively 14.3% and 11.9%.  Conservatively, let’s go with the latter, in which such vacuum from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend.  ‘Course the median duration is 15 weeks, which from today would put us at this year’s StateSide Black Friday (27 November) … and between “Now and Then” –[BeaTles, ’23], the S&P 500 may suffer many-a-black day in reverting to a reasonable valuation, but with an unknown Gold implication … just sayin’.

“That is really stock market bearish, mmb…”

‘Tis, Squire.  Barring one’s having been out on Neptune, those paying attention have read much bearishness being cited over “AI” heading to its own “DotCom” moment, (see 2000-2002).  But just this past week, the otherwise children’s writing pool over at the once-mighty Barron’s produced a sobering piece entitled:  “Stock Markets Beware:  AI Funding Plans Have Shades of the Financial Crisis” (see 2008-2009).  Think about it: a “double-whammy” repeat likened to both the DotComBomb and FinCrisis, each of which ultimately featured -50% declines for the S&P, (which today would actually get the Index back in line with the aforementioned “reasonable valuation”).

We’re only pointing this out as such “double-whammy” would likely be characterized as a “Black Swan”, during which asset prices could suffer significantly.  Recall how it all began near this time in 2008:

“So are you predicting a crash, mmb?”

Specifically to the same time frame, Squire, no.  But the classic “reversion to the mean” remains waiting in the wings, perhaps in those of the next Black Swan.

Put it this way:  were it all to go wrong by year-end, ‘twouldn’t surprise us a bit.  As we oft hear, ’tis merely about “The When” as “corrections” always come ’round again.  Further, in addition to today’s extreme equities’ overvaluation — our “live” price/earnings ratio of the all but yieldless S&P 500 now 43.4x — there is the ongoing wildcard of the war.

As for Gold, yes price suffered to a degree in the ’08-’09 Black Swan (only to set a record high come the year 2011).  And yes, price has suffered during 2026 when the war has been “on”, albeit as stated time-and-again, price pre-war had become very overvalued even upon reaching our forecast high for this year at 5546 (29 January), indeed moving briefly to 5586, the still-standing All-Time High.

Either way, should Gold’s trend continue to be our friend, (the weekly parabolic Short trend having at last met its end), then again ’tis higher prices we portend.  To wit, next we’ve the two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  This graphic of Gold appears so healthy, the Smart Alec Shorts may “dis” it as being “too healthy”.  (But if any of them are still around, we always appreciate their being there to take the other side of the trade).  However — our bullish bent notwithstanding — there is structural resistance from last April-May in the 4500-4900 zone, up into whatever extent Gold may drill during this new parabolic Long trend.  As to the Profile, the 4400s become the goal to hold:

Similar is the overall state of Silver, (her having settled the week at 64.83), although 72-90 (below left) may prove structurally resistive.  Initially, we’d like her to hold at least the 64s (below right).  As to the white metal’s overall value relative to the yellow metal, per the opening Scoreboard, you can see that today’s Gold/Silver ratio (68.4x) is relatively near to the evolving mean (69.2x).  To be sure, both precious metals are trading above their respective Fair Value; but such deviations  — either above or below — can last for years if not decades prior to price reversion, (although again, Gold and Silver became excessively extreme vis-à-vis Fair Value this past winter).  Here’s Sister Silver’s graphic:

Thus for the precious metals ’tis good news; but not so good for the Econ Baro.  Having developed the Economic Barometer back in 1998 (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there was 28 years ago), we were intrigued by its uncanny directional leadership of the S&P 500.  But then came COVID which elicited a $7T injection into the U.S. Money Supply (“M2”) that in turn zoomed into the S&P, swiftly increasing its market capitalization by the like $7T … and hence today’s extreme overvaluation.  ‘Twas at that injection the newly one-way S&P parted ways with the Baro.  But with COVID now folded, the positive correlation between the Baro and S&P has been returning per this year-over-year chart of the two.  So we now wait for the S&P to realize ’tis late:

The ongoing downward bent of the Baro was further precipiated this past week as just four of the 11 incoming metrics improved period-over-period.  Notably poor readings were in July’s Retail Sales shrinkage and a substantive drop in The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for August.  Both suggest consumers are becoming nervous.  Too, amongst next week’s batch of 12 metrics comes The Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index for July, for which the consensus is negative, (and not surprisingly so given the down Baro).

To wrap, we’ve the Stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High:  5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  5411 (28 January 2026)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4503 (from 4081) = +422 points or +10.3%
Trading Resistance:  nearby Market Profile notables:  4488 / 4468 / 4450
Gold Currently:  4432, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  96 points)
Trading Support:  nearby Market Profile notables:  4406 / 4322 / 4292
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4343
The 300-Day Moving Average:  4196 and rising
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  4151
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  4028
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  3955
2026’s Low:  3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

In simply summary:  think ’tis a good time to be holding Gold?  Indeed!

Cheers!

…m…

14 August 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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The Bond is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. As recently noted, we’re looking for the Bond (109^13) to rise toward 112 as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency cleared their -80% axis (see Market Trends) and indeed continue to rise as price’s downtrend becomes less negative: with inflation somewhat cooling, the Bond can get the bid. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^24 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (itself at 113^05), the Euro -0.011 points “low”, Gold +234 points “high”, Oil +2.39 points “high”, and the Spoo +151 points “high”. Tomorrow’s 874th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall underscore the weekly parabolic Short trend having (after 21 weeks) flipped to Long. The Econ Baro concludes the week with August’s UofM Sentiment Survey, July’s Retail Sales, plus June’s Business Inventories. And we’ve one week remaining in Q2 Earnings Season.

13 August 2026 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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Presently, we’ve both the Bond and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Spoo for better than a week has been in a relatively compressed trading range: indeed the EDTR (see Market Ranges) is narrowing, (85 points being today’s expected range, even as the widest actual span so far this week has been but 58 points). For the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday slipped below their Market Magnets, suggestive of still lower price levels near-term, albeit there is no noticeable breakdown in their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). And today brings wholesale inflation for the Econ Baro via July’s PPI.

12 August 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light. Gold’s weekly Parabolics — following a 21-week run on the Short side — have provisionally flipped to Long, although more immediately (even as price is up today) the 30mn MACD is crossing to negative. Copper is flirting either side of its most volume-dominant Market Profile price of the past fortnight, 6.635; by Market Trends, Copper’s 21-day linreg has been positive, even as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency slipped below their key +80% axis back on 24 July; Copper’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been the 4hr Parabolics. July’s inflation puzzle begins today as the Econ Baro awaits July’s CPI; then due later in the session is the month’s Treasury Budget.

11 August 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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Note –> We experienced a significant processing issue in the overnight work such that much of the BEGOS Markets’ graphics information (both internally as well as externally on the website) is flawed; we shall endeavour to have it all corrected and back to pin-point accuracy prior to tonight’s data runs. As for the moment: the Bond, Gold and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility again is mostly light. Our Market Rhythms fortunately being intact, the Top Three for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, Gold’s daily Moneyflow and the Euro’s 15mn Price Oscillator; too (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Bond’s 1hr Moneyflow, and both Gold’s 2hr MACD and 30mn MACD. The Econ Baro awaits July’s Existing Home Sales. Update –> All data and website graphics fully-restored as of 10:23 CET. (For those of you who visited the website in the interim, thank you for your valued interest and patience).

10 August 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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Silver, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update sees a near-term 4000 floor as having been established, supported by the upside Market Value crossover of price above its smooth valuation line and the rotation of the 21-day linreg trend from negative to positive; however, further warring activities would likely again give the Dollar a bid, which has played negatively for Gold. The Bond on Friday moved above what had been Market Profile resistance at 109^12, (price presently 109^18); again as the downtrend becomes less so per the “Baby Blues” rising (see Market Trends), we may see 112. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics for the week’s balance. And two weeks remain in Q2 Earnings Season.

The Gold Update: No. 873 – (08 August 2026) – “Gold Finally Finds Its 4000 Floor”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 873rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Finally Finds Its 4000 Floor“

In settling yesterday (Friday) at 4401, Gold just posted its second best of the 31 full trading weeks year-to-date:  a +7.4% increase, second only to the +8.3% gain for that ending back on 23 January.  Cue “This Magic Moment” –[The Drifters, ’60] … or more specifically the “magic minute” of the past week that arrived Friday at precisely 12:30 GMT upon the StateSide release of July’s “Non-Farm Payrolls”.

As is our wont come the release, rather than look at what — back in the day — was referred to as “The Mother of All Numbers”, we simply watched the markets.  And within the 60 seconds from 12:30-12:31, the price of Gold low-to-high went from 4371 to 4418, some +47 points or +1.1%.  Instantly our notion (without yet being knowledgeable of the data) was that Payrolls — rather than having increased per consensus — must actually have shrunk:  so then we looked … and indeed they had!  More on that later when we assess the eroding state of the Economic Barometer.

“Don’t forget the ¥en support also, mmb… ”

Noted, dear Squire, (and welcome back from your appreciated fire zone duties).  As to the ¥en, whilst not eliciting as instantaneous a move for Gold, price nonetheless benefitted into the new week following the previous Friday’s direct dumping of €26B by the NY Fed for ¥en, with the Finance Ministry in Japan further loading up on its own currency in dispensing some $90B.  Thus by conventional wisdom, (even as we’ve demonstrated over these many years that Gold plays no currency favourites), ’twas down with the Dollar and up with Gold.

“And so 4000 is now lookin’ like a floor, huh mmb?”

‘Twould appear at least the near-term case, Squire.  Two missives ago we encircled the 4000 area within “Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor”, only to just last week acknowledge “Gold Resumes Skidding…”.  But then came the USA/JPN yen to buy the ¥en (which actually settled this past week slightly below Monday’s open, although still well up from the prior Friday), and thus — along with Payrolls’ shrinkage for July — here is the rightmost effect of it all by Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date:

Further, following now 21 weeks of parabolic Short trend, (the most since that ending in May 2013), barring it all suddenly going wrong for the yellow metal, the red dots likely shall return to bullish blues as the new week ensues.  At 4401, Gold need advance just +33 points toward eclipsing the 4434 “flip-to-Long” level as depicted in the above graphic.  So just in case you’re scoring at home, Gold’s expected daily trading range (per the website) is now 98 points and the weekly 235 points.

As well, that which we’d been anticipating these last few weeks finally came to fruition:  with the 4000 floor essentially having held, our “Baby Blues” of trend consistency sufficiently rose to rotate what had (for Gold) been a negative regression trend across 66 trading days, and (for Silver) 46 trading days, back to positive.  Et voilà, (a little French lingo there), per this next telling graphic we’ve again noted our “BUY” signals upon the “Baby Blues” crossing above the key -80% axes as originally encircled effective for Sister Silver come her 01 July close at 59.61 and for Gold from the 02 July close at 4136.  And you regular readers know the rule:  “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”, for which in these two cases we’ve “connected the dots” from “BUY” to right now for emphasis .  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng, if admittedly having to “weather the dips” (aka “employ cash management”) en route.  And yet, even subtracting the recent +60 points (as previously discussed) of fresh December Gold contract premium, price from the “BUY” to today is +5.0% and that for Silver +7.0%:

Amidst this renewed mirth for Gold, as penned in last Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary, price has:  “… crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 11 March…”  Thus as further denoted in following year-over-year graphic, such run sub-Market Value lasted exactly 100 trading days which is a century-to-date record, even exceeding the above-Market Value record of 88 days achieved just last year.  To be sure, Gold today at 4401 is (by the opening Scoreboard) +6.0% above its BEGOS Market Value, indeed +9.4% above Fair Value.  But the latter is a far more ponderous measure, whereas when Gold breaks above its smooth valuation line as below shown, ’tis a buy signal of its own:

With the past week’s rallies in the bag, the Smart Alec Shorts are waving the white flag.  For as indicated by the respective 10-day Market Profiles next for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right, prices have well-departed the lower drudgery, out of which for weeks they could not break:

As to our aforementioned Econ Baro, the blue line continues a downward drift in this year ago-to-date view.  The best incoming metric of the past week was Q2’s preliminary Productivity having nearly doubled from +0.8% in Q1 to now +1.4%.  Problematic thereto?  Productivity tends to rise as the human workforce subsides:  “Oh blame it on AI!”  For indeed, the week’s weak links were the stated July Payrolls’ shrinkage, ADP’s own July employment data reported as less than half that gained in June, and Construction Spending (for which workers are on-site requisite) also shrinking in July, missing estimates, with June revised lower as well.  Reprise Fleetwood Mac from ’69: “Oh well…”.  Besides, with the S&P 500 at an all-time high, all must be well, (do tell?):

Speaking of the S&P, we close with its price/earnings ratio … and guess what just happened?  Bob Shiller’s long-revered CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings) just surpassed ours.  Since the debut of the ever-honestly calculated deMeadville “live” P/E back in 2013, here by the month we’ve ours, along with Shiller’s and that compiled by S&P/DJI itself, the latter being comparably lower, yet still double the “acceptable maximum” as taught in portfolio theory, (an ancient science with which has been discarded in this modern Investing Age of Stoopid):


Thus as we on occasion quip, (until they again do), “Earnings don’t matter anymore.”

But Gold always matters, regardless of a 4000 floor, or more!

Cheers!

…m…

07 August 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Presently, both Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold appears to have finally found its 4000s’ floor at least for the near-term: more of course in tomorrow’s 873rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 continues to be buoyed by “AI” hype and overall earnings improvement: now five weeks into Q2 Earnings Season, 78% of the 418 constituents having thus far reported bettered their bottom lines over the like quarter a year ago; regardless, the excessively high (understatement) “live” futs-adj’d P/E is 41.5x and the wee yield 1.084%; (the 3mo T-Bill currently yields an annualized 3.732%). For the Econ Baro we’ve the Payrolls’ data for July, plus late in the session June’s Consumer Credit.

06 August 2026 – 08:36 Central Euro Time

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Copper is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; otherwise, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. By Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency confirmed having moved above their key -80% axis, indicative of higher prices near-term: currently 110 even, we could see 112 tapped on an up run; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) the 2hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) the 1hr Moneyflow; the BEGOS Market Value for the Bond is (in real-time) 113^11, so there is room to also revert up toward that smooth valuation line. Both Gold and Silver recorded net gains yesterday of +4.2%: for Gold, ’twas its fourth-best daily net gain year-to-date, and for Silver ’twas 21st-best. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s Wholesale Inventories and Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

05 August 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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Yesterday’s +1.8% straight-up gain in the S&P 500 would be — back in the day — referred to as a “blow-off top”, albeit the Spoo at this instant is poised for a further +0.4% S&P opening gap. At present, the Spoo is above its Neutral Zone for today, as are the Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light, save for the precious metals of which Gold has traced 136% of its EDTR and Silver 98% (see Market Ranges). Gold (4233, +2.4%) has in real-time provisionally crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 11 March and — as we’ve be anticipating for some two weeks — its 21-day linreg has rotated to positive, as has provisionally that for Silver. Thus, ‘twould appear that our sought 4000 floor for Gold is forming. For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index.

04 August 2026 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

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By the Spoo, were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be spot on 7621, the all-time high established back on 03 June. At present, the Spoo along with Silver, Copper and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Bond; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Spoo yesterday crossed back above its Market Value: in real-time, the Spoo is +42 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; by the same measure for the other four primary BEGOS components, the Bond is -4^12 points “low”, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold -37 points “low” and Oil +5.31 points “high”. The “live” P/E of this S&P at this futs-adj’d record high is 41.2x and the yield 1.087%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.700%. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.

03 August 2026 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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With the war yet again “on hold”, the BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) are benefitting: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update sees price as still working to form a 4000s’ floor, albeit the broader technical picture has weakened such that a revisit of the 3500s wouldn’t be untoward, especially should the war re-accelerate with Oil and the Dollar then again getting the bid. Our recent anticipation of Gold and Silver having their respective linregs (see Market Trends) rotate from negative to positive has yet to occur, although the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising and nearing the 0% axis for both metals. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro of 15 incoming metrics, beginning today with July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 872 – (01 August 2026) – “Gold Resumes Skidding, (Fresh Premium Kidding)”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 872nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Resumes Skidding, (Fresh Premium Kidding)“

In wrapping a week ago, we wrote that we’d be on a short fuse this time ’round, even as ’tis a month-end edition of The Gold Update, (normally lengthier that the standard weekly editions).  Thus time being of the essence, (and with Squire away on voluntary fire duty), we’re dispensing with the usual verbosity’s wisdom and wit by going this week via a point-by-point format, plus for you a rare earlier posting bonus!  Ready?

Gold:  Per Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary, the COMEX futures “front month” contract made its annual four-month leap from August to December, incorporating +60 points of fresh premium into price.  So, although the December’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 4099 is higher that last week’s August settle of 4056, Gold in fact netted a mild down week of -17 points (-0.4%) rather than the premium’s injection kidding us with a +43 points (+1.1%) gain.  Whilst 60 points is less than Gold’s current expected daily trading range of 86 points, in charting by the “continuous contract”, we dutifully indicate the discrepancy below in the weekly bars graphic from a year ago-to-date.  Regardless, the red-dotted parabolic trend remains Short through now 20 weeks, although we still perceive price as (hopefully) fostering a floor:

Gold n’ PM Equities:  Amongst primary precious metal equities also from a year ago-to-date, their respective percentage tracks now rank as follows:   Pan American Silver (PAAS) +58%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +54%, Newmont (NEM) +50%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +43%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, Gold itself +25%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +18%:

The Fed n’ Inflation:  This past Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee disputedly voted to maintain the Bank’s Funds rate within the 3.50%-to-3.75% targeted range.  Our believing for better than two years that a rate raise would be appropriate, we recently (again) resigned ourselves to the fact that the FOMC would stand pat.  Yet, (per Thursday’s Precious Commentary) “…we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise…”:  Hammack, Kashkari and Logan.  That acknowledged, come the 16 September Policy Statement, we might not only witness further dissention amongst the 12 voters, but directional disagreement as well.  To wit, per our inflation summary for June, the average 12-month summation is an “ought raise” +4.0% … but the average annualized pace specific only to June is an “ought cut” deflationary -1.0%  Stay tuned(!):

The BEGOS Markets’ Standings:  Turning to our BEGOS Markets’ Standings through these first seven months of 2026, Silver — her having topped the chart at January’s end — has since been relegated to the basement.  And for how much longer can the S&P 500 maintain double-digit percentage increases year-after-year?  Meanwhile as the war wears on, Big Oil continues to rule the roost:

The BEGOS Markets’ Trends:  As to the near-term trends, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components by their daily bars from 21-days (one month) ago-to-date.  Save perhaps for our always welcome rookie readers, you already know the baby blue dots determine the consistency of the respective diagonal grey trend lines.  Thus therein, Oil and Copper are the most consistently up, the Bond most consistently down, and the balance of the bunch a consistent mess:

The Econ Baro n’ S&P 500:  Both the Economic Barometer and S&P 500 have at best been in sideways trends these last three months, characterized by war worries, rate worries, and denial of what ought well be earnings worries.  Of last week’s 11 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just four were better period-over-period.  Worse, Q2’s first peek at Gross Domestic Product ex-inflation was only +1.5%; add back the Chain Deflator of a whopping +6.3% (the highest since coming out of COVID during Q2 of 2022) and 81% of Q2 GDP total “growth” was by inflation rather than improvement.  (We wonder if that was mentioned on FoxyB, Bloomy, CNBS, et alia…).  And as for an “ignorance is bliss” Q2 Earnings Season, the numbers thus far look great:  of the 289 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 79% have bettered their year-over-year quarterly bottom lines.  But:  with the honestly-calculated S&P price/earnings ratio (ttm-basis) having settled yesterday at 41.3x, paying $41 for something that earns $1 — plus the risk of principal loss — isn’t our cup of tea.  Here are the Baro and S&P for you to see:

Gold n’ Silver Profiles:  Of course, precious metals investing is not also without periods of significant risk for principal loss.  Regardess, just briefly century-to-date, yield-less Gold is +1,397% and Silver +1,145%, whereas the S&P is +839% including reinvestment of dividends, else ’tis +467% ex-dividends, including having weathered two -50% corrections (the DotComBomb and FinCrisis).  Is the next one nigh?  Just askin’…  Currently somewhat awry are the precious metals prices, both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) entrapped within their congestive 10-day Market Profiles.  For Gold, the prices are basis December, (Silver’s are still September):

Gold Structure:  Naturally, it being month-end, here next we’ve the Gold Structure by the monthly “continuous contract” candles across the past six years. The rightmost candle (July 2026) is the stubbiest by both points (253) and range (6.4% low-to-high) since August a year ago.  This overall broader-term view is in a technically-negative stance; should a “floor” not form through here, further skidding toward 3500 may be in the bidding:

The Finish featuring FinMedia Follies:  Following Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement and FedHead Warsh presser, the S&P 500 recorded an intra-day drop of -1.8%, after which we noted these few assessments from the FinMedia, (with our parenthetical quips):

  • Bloomy:  “Nasdaq 100 enters correction”, (after having already been “correcting” for the prior eight weeks);

  • Barron’s:  “…historic crash…” and DJNW:  “…Savage Selloff…”, (again we’re talking here about a -1.8% intra-day S&P pullback; they’ve no idea of what “savage” nor “historic” is; across the last 46 years there have been over 1,000 worse intra-day S&P drops … yeah, we did the math);

  • Bloomy:  “Why fresh volatility means a ‘valuation opportunity’ is opening up in U.S. stocks”, (’tis called going Short).

With today’s short writing fuse at its end, we leave you with this time-honoured reminder:  “Complacency breeds failure”, –[Andy Grove, ’96].  No kidding.  Go with Gold!

Cheers!

…m…

31 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Into month’s end, we’ve both the Bond and Spoo at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; BEGOS Market’s session volatility is mostly moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation we currently have is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Even as Gold is lower today — and excluding the fresh +60 points of December cac premium — price “appears” en route to a second consecutive up week for the first time since that ending 17 April: more of course in tomorrow’s 872nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with July’s Chi PMI and revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index. And through now better than half of Q2 Earnings Season, 79% of S&P 500 constituents have thus far beaten their-over-year bottom lines, a well-above average improvement pace, (albeit the “live” [futs-adj’d] P/E of the S&P is an unsustainably high 41.7x).

30 July 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

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As anticipated, the Fed stood pat on its Funds rate, albeit we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise: today’s PCE data for June shall complete the month’s inflation puzzle. At present, we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. To be taken with a grain of salt given the ways of the war, Oil’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) have dropped beneath the key +80 axis, normally suggestive of lower prices; too by Market Values, Oil is (in real-time) +10.26 points above its smooth valuation line. In addition the PCE, ’tis a heavy-weight day for the Econ Baro, other incoming metrics including June’s Personal Income/Spending and the first peek at Q2 GDP.

29 July 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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Gold’s cac volume is making its annual four-month leap from August to December with 60 points of fresh premium; whilst marginally material, we bear in mind that Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points, (i.e. the premium is less than one day’s trading range). Presently, we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is moderate. Yesterday, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate moved beneath their Market Magnets, suggestive of further near-term selling even as Gold and Silver are getting a bid thus far today, (Copper is mildly lower). The economic event of the day is the FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT): we expect no change in the Funds rate as recently inflation has cooled such as to give the Fed some breathing room, even as 12-month summations remain above target; of note, June’s PCE data is not due until tomorrow, (i.e. post-Fed).

28 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Following yesterday’s S&P 500 “failure day”, the Spoo at present is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are Oil and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is again mostly moderate. The Spoo yesterday settled beneath its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 09 April, suggestive of still lower prices; too by Market Trends, as anticipated, the Spoo’s linreg has (in real-time) rotated to negative; however those for both Gold and Silver remain negative. Seven of the eight BEGOS components today (save for the Bond) are seeing their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency dropping. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 41.7x and the yield 1.124%; that for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.797%. And the Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.

27 July 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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The war again on pause is bullish for most of the BEGOS Markets in starting the week: six of the eight components are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same and Copper within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update is suggestive of the yellow metal finding a floor toward staying above 4000: currently 4098, Gold’s smooth valuation line (in real-time) is 4156 (see Market Values). Copper on Friday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropping beneath the key +80% axis (see Market Trends): thus the red metal’s trend remains up, but is weakening. As the week unfolds, we’ll be watching for the linregs of the precious metals rotating to positive and that for the Spoo to negative, even as the latter is quite firm thus far today. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders. The FOMC’s Policy Statement comes Wednesday prior to the “Fed-favoured” PCE data on Thursday.

The Gold Update: No. 871 – (25 July 2026) – “Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 871st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor“

Our having taken on more of a bullish bent these last few weeks, we ~finally~ can open with some pleasing news:  Gold just recorded an up week.

“Well, it really wasn’t much of a big deal, mmb… ”

True enough, Squire.  Yet thus far through the year’s 29 trading weeks, Gold just recorded only its fourth positive one in the last 14: “Happy days are here again…” –-[Milton Ager & Jack (not Janet) Yellen, ’29].

Indeed en route to settling this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4056, price rocketed higher from Monday into Wednesday, at one point up +3.7% to 4171.  But we’ll gladly accept the week’s net gain — wee as ’twas (+0.8%) — after all the recent fits and starts — dare we say “derring-do” — that Gold’s been through.

Further, Gold (serendipitously or otherwise) has been fostering friendship with Fair Value.

“That’s ’cause you’ve been pointing it out a lot, mmb… ”

Squire, we appreciate the supportive comment.  Either way, Fair Value remains our favoured — albeit the most particularly ponderous measure — for reasonable Gold valuation.  To be sure, Fair Value shall be a bit of a laggard to the actual price of Gold upon the Federal Reserve having to bail out both the U.S. Treasury’s debt and to fund investment banking coffers (thus avoiding your receiving an I.O.U. instead of cash upon selling your stock) given the ratio of the S&P 500’s market capitalization/liquid money supply is now 2.8x (per the opening Scoreboard).  In the offing then comes five-figure Gold, as previously we’ve herein foretold.

But again, the beauty of Fair Value (barring a deflationary depression and a sapping/reinvention of the money supply) is that it rises over the long haul.  Yes, since President Nixon nixed the Gold Standard back on 15 August 1971, the price of Gold has typically trailed Fair Value, only to have dramatically caught up — and then some (understatement) — upon Gold last year having “morphed into a meme stock” as the trading herd changed the yellow metal’s status from “Relic” to “Must have it!”

All that said, we oft think of Gold as an attractive, very long-term buy when trading at or below Fair Value.  Here from one year ago-to date are Gold’s daily bars and gradually rising Fair Value line.  Note therein Fair Value’s rightmost “supportive” nature of late:

‘Course, from the “Double Negative Dept.”, Fair Value presently appearing “supportive” doesn’t preclude Gold not going down.  The war is weary on Gold as the Dollar rises toward accommodating the transaction of Oil.  Thus here we’ve the percentage tracks war-to-date of Gold, Oil (West Texas Intermediate) and the Dollar “Dixie” Index.  The latter’s line lacks alacrity based on how ’tis priced by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange); but since the war’s commencement on 28 February, “Dixie” is up nearly +4%, which historically across any 101-trading day range (per this case) is fairly exceptional:

Regardless, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend continues its Short course as we go to the bars and dots from one year ago-to-date.  And yet, is Gold finally finding a floor?  Aided or not by Fair Value (now 3999), price is fighting to maintain 4000.  Still, ’tis a bit of a stretch to flip the trend back to Long:  as below shown, such price for the ensuing week is 4546, requisite of an up move of at least +490 points (+12.1%).  Has Gold every gained +12.1% in a single week?  Century-to-date, just once for that ending 19 September 2008 as it all went wrong for equities et alia into the FinCrisis.  As for Gold’s expected weekly trading range, ’tis now 235 points, in which vacuum ‘twould take price more than two “straight-up-weeks” to set the trend Long.  Yet favourably — should this be a floor — for Gold’s upside there’s more, (subject to the state of the war):

Next in drilling down to “The Now”, we go to our two-panel Gold graphic featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Should you regularly read the website’s daily Prescient Commentary, you’re aware of our notion for Gold’s 21-day linear regression trend rotating toward positive:  we’d been anticipating ‘twould happen by last week’s end; but then the war re-heated again and Gold lacked the puff to rotate as such, evidenced by the baby blue dots not quite clearing the 0% axis.  However:  if Gold is putting in a floor, we ought see the new positive trend evolve into next week.  Else by the Profile, price is fairly centered, supported by a nearby array of volume-dominant levels as labeled, although the big point over which to come is 4069:

Too, Silver continues to perform in line with Gold.  Here we’ve her like panels with the “Baby Blues” (below left) and Profile (below right).  Should Sister Silver clear her most volume-dominant resistor as labeled at 59.15, it ought be “Hello 60s!”:

Be that as it may, the wildcard remains the war which from one day to the next waxes and wanes on that being said from behind the White House’s window panes.  Cue The Temptations’ hit from back in 1970: “Ball of Confusion (That’s What the World Is Today)”

Which is a neat segue into the Economic Barometer.  The Baro has been in a confused state for some three months, yet fortunately had a deserved rest this past week as just three incoming metrics arrived, the downer being the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators for June.  But the month’s New Home Sales beat both consensus and those for May, which also were revised higher.  Moreover came the math-challenged FinMedia excitedly reporting that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 18 July at 187k were the lowest since 1969.  Wrong:  since the Baro’s inception in 1998, there’ve been not one but seven other weeks of less Claims, the least being 167K for the week ending 02 April 2022.  (Still watching that FinTV, Bunky?  Bummer).  Here’s the Baro:

With respect to stocks, yesterday we received a solicitory email with the subject “Are you ready for the crash?”  We’ve been ready for four years.  “Oh, but earnings season is so great!”, they say.  Year-over-year, yes, thus far ’tis “great”.  Of the 118 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 85% (100) have recorded bottom-line improvement.  However, from “The Record Needle is Stuck Dept.”, we again point out that to sustain such excessive levels of prices, earnings ought be doubling, if not tripling.

“But they’re not, right mmb?”

No they’re not, Squire, although the S&P’s “live” price/earnings ratio has come down a bit through these first three weeks of Q2 Earnings Season from 46.5x to now 42.2x (again per our opening Scoreboard).  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means if you buy the S&P today, you’re paying $42.20 for something that earns $1.00.  Sure, one can add in the teeny 1.133% dividend yield, but prices (believe it or not) can actually go south.  ‘Course, they always come back, right?  Recall it took the S&P 500 a mere 13 years to record a 2% peak-to-peak gain from 2000 into 2013 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Obviously we find this more preferential:

Quick note:  Next week’s 872nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall likely be composed on somewhat of a short time fuse.  Still, it being a month-end missive, ’twill contain all the graphics you expect to see with just a bit less verbosity, but to the point.  On verra … and for Gold and Silver, hopefully a “Hurrah!” for finding a floor!

Cheers!

…m…

24 July 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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Oil per last Monday’s comment reached (and then some) our Market Values target of 86 on Wednesday, trading yesterday to as high as 93.50; price today is at present below its Neutral Zone, as is that for Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold intraweek had gained as much as +3.7%, although that essentially has since entirely evaporated: more of course in tomorrow’s 871st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; too, our suggestion by Market Trends of the precious metals’ linregs rotating to positive shan’t pan out by today, although an ensuing up week could elicit such rotation. But inclusive of Copper, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate yesterday dropped beneath volume-dominant Market Profile support and saw their Market Magnets penetrated to the downside. The Econ Baro concludes a basically inactive week with June’s New Home Sales. And as the third week of Q2 Earnings Season finishes, for the S&P 500’s 112 constituents having thus far reported, 85% have bettered their year-over-year bottom lines, albeit the “live” (fut’s adj’d) P/E at this instant is an extremely high 43.1x and the paltry yield but 1.131%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is now 3.800%.

23 July 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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The Euro and Oil are both at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again mostly light. Gold (in real-time 4127) is -24 points beneath its BEGOS Market Value of 4151: as suggested in recent writings, eclipsing the Market Value ought set the run for 4300-4400; too (as noted yesterday), the precious metals may be in positive linreg by the weekend per the Market Trends page. On the opposite end of the Market Values spectrum, the Bond yesterday confirmed crossing below its smooth valuation line (110^18) to now 110 even: thus price perhaps is en route to re-testing the 20 May low of 108^31. The sole incoming metric today for the Econ Baro is the usual Thursday report of Initial Jobs Claims from the prior week.

22 July 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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As we’ve been anticipating near-term, Gold is into a firm week, having yesterday gained +1.8% and today up another +1.0%; price at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; below same are both Copper and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Gold is also making progress towards its smooth valuation line, in real-time now just -27 points “low” vis-à-vis its Market Value; for the other primary BEGOS components, the Bond shows as essentially on its Market Value, the Euro as +0.014 points “high”, Oil as +8.72 points “high” and the Spoo as +170 points “high”. Too for the precious metals, both Gold and Silver yesterday crossed back above their Market Magnets, indicative of still higher prices near-term; into the balance of the week, both metals may see their linregs rotate from negative to positive (see Market Trends). As the Econ Baro’s quiet week continues, nothing is due today.

21 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, as is the Spoo; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again mostly moderate. Looking at Market Trends, we’ve four that are positive: the Euro, Copper, Oil and Spoo, and thus four which are negative: the Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver; however therein, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising for each market except the Bond and Spoo. The Bond yesterday fell below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 111^06 to now 110^25: our best Market Rhythm for the Bond of pure swing consistency is (10-test basis) the 15mn Price Oscillator and (24-test basis) the 2hr Moneyflow. The S&P 500’s MoneyFlow relative to the Index itself is positive per all three of our timeframes (weekly, monthly quarterly) suggestive that investors have yet (these recent years) to be put off by the high P/E (at this moment futs-adj’d being 44.7x).

20 July 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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The Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Silver and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. The Gold Update sees price closely sandwiched between Fair Value (3994) and the BEGOS Market Value (in real-time 4151), albeit the key trends (daily linreg and weekly Parabolics) remain negative. Oil on Friday settled above its own BEGOS Market Value: we sense there is a run to at least 86, although price has already gapped higher to start the week; looking at Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) the 6hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) the 2hr MACD. Following a very busy week of 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just three come due for this week, beginning today with June’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. Rather, taking center stage is Q2 Earnings Season, its third week kicking into high gear.

The Gold Update: No. 870 – (18 July 2026) – “Gold Hope Need Cope With Downslope”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 870th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Hope Need Cope With Downslope“

Rarely as has occured across 17 years of composing The Gold Update, we are having one of those Bob Hope moments.  Roll the tape, Squire:

  • “Boy, Did I Get a Wrong Number!” –[Bob Hope, Elke Sommer, Phyllis Diller, U.A., ’66]

“And a hilarious movie, mmb!”

Indeed so, Squire, but not so hilarious here, given the last two weeks our having become more stridently Gold bullish in seeking a near-term number of 4404.  Rather, Gold continues hoping to cope with its ongoing negative downslope.  Priced at 4129 per our prior penning, this past week the yellow metal got floored from its bed to instead trade as low as 3963 toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 4023.  ‘Twas Gold’s tenth down week in the last 13.

Thus now at 4023, Gold is -28% below its record high of 5586 (29 January).  But to further foul the fallout, a fine friend (and illustrious investor here) sees the present price pattern as potentially repeating the four-year 2011-2015 pathway of -45%.  Fortunately, we don’t so think.  For that very noun (which we admittedly abhor) “awareness” of Gold remains today well in play, whereas 15 years ago ’twas lacking cachet, (a little French lingo there).

As herein stated ad nauseam this past winter, Gold had “gotten way ahead of itself”.  Thus, such -28% decline for high-buying newbie herd followers must be frightful.  Yet year-over-year, price actually is up +20.3%.  Moreover, today’s 4023 level is neatly sandwiched by the opening Gold Scoreboard between Fair Value (3994) and its BEGOS Market Value (4152).  One may even go so far as to say that Gold today is “perfectly priced” as we update our graphic of daily closes from one year ago-to-date, incorporating the grey smooth valuation line — and as a bonus this time ’round — Fair Value throughout:

More specific to the above graphic, Gold is easily within its expected weekly trading range (244 points) of swiftly achieving a settle back above the smooth valuation line.  What then happens?  Having recently completed a 25-year study of the Market Value price-leading aspects for all five primary BEGOS components, Gold’s “maximum average” upside continuance upon crossing above the smooth line has been +4.3%.  To be sure, “maximum average” hardly is perfectly predictive; yet in that vacuum, such increase above Gold’s current BEGOS Market Value of 4152 would yield 4331 perhaps within a period of three weeks … just in case you’re scoring at home.  (Then, as charter reader JGS of the first Gold Update would say:  “And that’s before the overshoot.”)

“Perfectly priced” or otherwise, we’re still in the near-term Gold bounce camp, so-called “Dollar Strength!” be damned.  The Buck this past week hits its lowest “Dixie” level (100.145) since that ending 19 June.  Too, from the “Short-Term Memory Dept.” despite all the ballyhoo of Oil getting the Dollar a war bid, the “Dixie” today (100.565) is -8.6% below its January 2025 high of 110.015.

‘Course, because Gold decidedly has been trending down, our bullish bent remains a bit optimistic until price truly turns.  Indeed turning to Gold’s year-over-year weekly bars, the red-dotted parabolic Short trend just completed its 18th week, tying for fourth in duration century-to-date, (which again for you WestPalmBeachers down there means from 01 January 2001 through today).  Whilst “the market is never wrong”, for the Gold bull ’tis a cascade of “wrong” numbers:

Yet suddenly, is it all going “right” for the Fed?  Is the pressure off to raise the Funds rate come the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote on 29 July?  Can they instead simply enjoy summer down in the easy chair since they “…ain’t goin’ nowhere…” –-[Dylan, ’67]?

To wit, the June inflation numbers thus far:  at the retail level the Consumer Price Index deflated -0.4%, as at the wholesale level did the Producer Price Index by -0.3%.  And as herein noted a week ago, the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation gauge shan’t be released until the day after the meeting, (barring the  Bureau of Economic Analysis tipping them off in advance, which surely wouldn’t be cricket). Yet now, you know and we know and everyone from Bangor Maine to Honolulu knows the FOMC for a rate change shall vote “No”.

But there is some mildly negative change in direction of the Economic Barometer.  Oh to be sure, nine of last week’s large batch of 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics improved period-over-period, the notable Big Winner being June’s Housing Starts which beat both consensus and those for May, even as they were revised higher.  But at the other end of the month’s housing spectrum, Building Permits notably slowed, missing consensus with May revised lower, and Pending Home Sales actually shrank at the third worst rate in nearly two years.  As for deflation?  Again cue Lewis Carroll’s Alice:  “Curiouser and curiouser…”:

“But mmb, you’re not really calling for a deflationary depression…”

Merely musing, dear Squire.  More likely first would come hyperinflation.  Today, were the Fed to “accommodate” the U.S. Treasury with $39.4T such as to retire its debt, that added to the current liquid money supply (“M2”) of $23.3T would bring the total to $62.7T.  Clearly a $7.6T international portion of could would make its way from the U.S.  Regardless, such spike of “M2” would revalue Gold by Fair Value from today’s $3,994/oz. to $10,754/oz.  With such inevitability (or portion thereof) waiting in the wings, obviously Gold’s most shining days are ahead.  And “The When” is hastening.

As to “The Now”, here next we’ve Gold’s two-panel graphic featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  And do those “Baby Blues” ever look confused in depicting the consistency of the regression trend.  ‘Tis first about saving the 4000s.  Overhead resistors, however, are as labeled in the Profile:

The sole positive about Silver’s graphic being essentially identical to that of Gold is evidence of her being donned in her precious metal pinstripes, (rather than in her industrial metal jacket when cavorting about with Cousin Copper).  That said, Copper’s regression trend (per the website) has just rotated to positive; let’s see if that influences Sister Silver in the new week:

Here now is the stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High:  5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  5411 (28 January 2026)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  4611
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  4152
The 300-Day Moving Average:  4136 and rising
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4082
Trading Resistance:  nearby Market Profile notables:  4035 / 4067 / 4083 / 4096
Gold Currently:  4023, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  100 points)
Trading Support:  per the Market Profile:  4001
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3994
10-Session directional range:  down to 3966 (from 4213) = -247 points or -5.9%
2026’s Low:  3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To close, we remain mindful of the S&P “Casino” 500’s excessive (understatement) overvaluation, the price/earnings ratio at this writing (per the opening Scoreboard) at 44.9x, (i.e. double, indeed triple, as was taught in portfolio theory).  And to that point, we always are heartened when today’s shrewd (i.e. “rare”) analyst senses same.  Hat-tip Oxbow’s Ted Oakley, the wealth manager wary of a -40% correction.  Where would that be elicited on our ever-daunting 53-year graphic of the S&P?  Here ’tis per the blue line labeled at 4572, (-40% below the record high of 7620)…

…which is basically spot-on the top of the yellow regression channel.  Folks, you canNOT make this stuff up!

So notwithstanding coping with Gold’s downsloping, our hope is your hanging onto Gold when all else is folding!

Cheers!

…m…

17 July 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

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Presently, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Copper and the Spoo are below same; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Spoo (currently 7523) yesterday dropped through its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 7590, albeit by Market Trends, the Spoo (and barely Copper) are in positive linreg, that being negative for the other six BEGOS components. The Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency its ponderous daily EMA (10-test basis) and its daily Moneyflow (24-test basis). Q2 Earnings Season, whilst still quite young, is thus far very good with year-over-year improvement; problematic thereto is the ongoing issue of earnings — even as improved — ultimately being unsupportive of price, especially give the short-term risk-free annualized yield of the T-Bill (3.697%): the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 45.1x, and its risk-full yield a wee 1.118%. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil. And tomorrow brings our 870th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

16 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Gold, Silver and Oil are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again light. Yesterday, both the Euro and Swiss Franc crossed above their Market Magnets and cleared volume-dominant Market Profile resistance (respectively at 1.146 and 1.247); this suggests further near-term upside for the currencies; cautiously however, the Euro is already well-above its BEGOS Market Value by (in real-time) +0.034 points; still, the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are indicative of both currencies’ negative linregs soon rotating to positive. Cac volume for Oil is rolling from August into that for September. And the Econ Baro looks to a substantive batch of incoming metrics, including July’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, June’s Retail and Pending Home Sales, plus May’s Business Inventories.

15 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Both the Euro and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Gold is below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Silver by its Market Profile has been flirting either side of its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight at 58.90, (currently 58.42). Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold: indeed by their 21-day negative linregs, their “Baby Blues” paths of trend consistency are quite similar (see Market Trends). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Top Three (10-test basis) are the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr MACD, and both Gold’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics; too, (24-test basis) we’ve Copper’s 6hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics and Oil’s 2hr MACD. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s NY State Empire Index, plus June’s wholesale piece of the inflation puzzle by the PPI: yesterday’s CPI data was indeed surprisingly deflationary by the headline level (-0.4%), supporting the case for the FOMC to sit come 29 July, contra to our long-running notion that they need raise, with the “Fed-favoured” PCE not arriving until after the meeting (30 July). And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

14 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Oil’s +9.1% net daily gain yesterday ranks third-most year-to-date; (Gold’s -2.9% loss was its 12th-weakest). At present we’ve Gold , Copper and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session is pushing toward moderate. In going ’round the horn for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: the Bond is 2^18 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro 0.030 points “high”, Gold +129 points “low”, Oil -2.26 points “low” (it had been more than -20 points “low” three weeks ago), and the Spoo +377 points “high”. Yesterday, both Gold and Silver crossed beneath their Market Magnets, suggestive of further near-term selling, even as The Gold Update is looking for higher levels, albeit therein noting the war can forestall such direction; Gold yesterday basically reached down to Fair Value (3989) before bouncing today (just as had happened two weeks prior). June’s inflation puzzle begins today with what by consensus is expected to be a benign CPI. Et Vive La France!

13 July 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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With the exception of Oil which is above its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets are all below same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update has a near-term bullish take, however as therein considered, the ramping up again of the war is maintaining selling pressure on the precious metals, as the Dollar (for Oil) gets the bid. The Euro on Friday fell below the key Market Profile support (now resistance) level of 1.146 and passed below its Market Magnet of 1.145, price now trading in the 1.143s: the Euro’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been (on a 10-test basis) the 8hr MACD and (on a 24-test basis) the 30mn MACD. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 incoming metrics scheduled, beginning today (late in the session) with June’s Treasury Budget. And financial entities’ take center stage into this second week of Q2 Earnings Season.

The Gold Update: No. 869 – (11 July 2026) – “Gold Rally Is Nigh?  S&P Sky-High!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 869th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Rally Nigh?  S&P Sky-High!“

We commence with this week-ago sentence:

“Let’s see if near-term Gold tests its mid-panel high at 4404 and that for Silver at 71.65.”

Now a week on, Gold has traded no higher than 4216 before dropping to 4033 in settling yesterday (Friday) at 4129.  Similarly for Silver, she reached up to 63.73, then down to 57.61 for the week’s settle at 60.30

“So both of ’em are far below your near-term price ideas, eh mmb?”

So far that is correct, Squire.  ‘Course as you well know, “near-term” is indicative of up to four if not six weeks, (“medium” being some three to six months, and “broadly” being a year and beyond).  The current key is the near-term impetus remaining in place for the precious metals to further bounce.

For that, we straightaway go to our two-panel graphic of daily bars across the three last months for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  And said impetus for higher levels are both metals’ rising “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency.  To be sure by the diagonal red trendlines, Gold and Silver remain in negative 21-day linear regression:  but the rising blue dots are the leading indication that the downtrends are becoming less so, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means less steep), toward the trend rotating back to positive.  Through 25+ years of testing, ’tis the rule rather than the exception:

Thus as herein depicted a week ago, the “Baby Blues” signals to buy arrived upon the dots confirming having moved above their respective -80% axes.  For those of you scoring at home, these buy points were for Gold per the open on 02 July at 4049, and for Silver a day earlier per her open on 01 July at July 59.25.  Too, as above shown, we’ve placed an arrow for both near-term possibilities as stated.  Yes:  both metals are at present above their buy points.  No:  there’s not a lot of “grunt in the lump” (a little F1 lingo there meaning “power”)

For in the current day, war keeps getting in the way.  And contrary to conventional wisdom — following Gold’s initial war spike back on 28 February when that day’s first trade gapped up +64 points (i.e. “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”) — attempts to further rise have occurred when the war has actually been cooling, only to further fall when actually re-heating.

In this case, the latter is perfectly in tune with the past week, the StateSide Executive Branch declaring termination of yet another USA/IRN “ceasefire”, upon which the metals resumed “Southbound” –[The Allman Brothers Band, ’73].

Again, it all sounds backwards; however through recent years we’ve graphically demonstrated Gold’s tendency to “spike n’ plunge” with respect to geo-political events.  Notably so is the case with this current war, as it affects the world’s economic engine known as Oil, for which the U.S. Dollar is tendered, the Buck thus getting the bid, in turn making Gold skid.

Regardless, as you long-time readers know, Gold plays no currency favourites.  Rather, ’tis ultimately about the weight and purity.  Hat-tip Cecil B. DeMille per recounting from the 13th century B.C. Dathan saying to Rameses II “But for ten talents of fine gold, I’ll give you the wealth of Egypt.”  That equates to some $45M today.  ‘Twas quite the bargain given the country’s GDP is now $430B.

Either way, we segue to Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the red-dotted parabolic Short trend continuing to pound its way down.  But “upon further review” price is significantly below the still-positive, dashed regression trendline, such that if the prior week’s low (3955) can hold, again we sense higher days near-term for Gold.  You tell ’em, Yul:

“But if the Fed raises on the 29th, mmb?”

Indeed, Squire, ’tis just 13 trading days until the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee releases its next Policy Statement.  As you well know — given the rampantly running inflation as we’ve herein depicted ad nauseam — we opine they really ought vote to raise the Bank’s Funds rate from the current 3.50%-3.75% range to 3.75%-4.00%.  But there is banter about that because today’s inflation is more “supply-push” rather than “demand-pull”, ‘twould be better for the FOMC to sit on its hands.  And should they so sit, then to higher prices Gold may swiftly commit.

Also supportive of higher near-term Gold is price vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value.  As we next see here by the day since this time last year, a positive crossover appears ever so near.  Indicated as well in the opening Scoreboard, price is now just -46 points (-1.1%) below this method of valuation:  and because Gold’s expected daily trading range is 109 points, confirmation of an upside cross could come as early as Monday’s settle.  Century-to-date, there’ve been 240 upside crosses with an “average maximum” price increase during a signal’s life of +4.3%:  in that vacuum alone from here, Gold would reach 4300 in as soon as two weeks.  On verra…

As to nearby support and resistance, here are the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  Both metals have come off their recent lows and are fairly profile-centered, the volume-dominant trading apices as labeled:

With respect to the aforementioned Fed, as well as the StateSide economy and the “so-overvalued-that-we’ve-run-out-of-adjectives” S&P 500, let’s turn to the Economic Barometer from a year ago-to-date.  Emphasizing that we merely do the math, we at times have to laugh.  To wit this from the “They’re Just Figuring This Out Now? Dept.”:  a popular FinMedia-favoured market strategist stated this past week that the economy is positively “turning a corner”.  To be honest, it actually “turned the corner” literally one year ago to this date per the leftmost first pixel print of the Baro’s blue line, from which clearly the trend has been mostly upward, albeit (as we’ve been herein saying) slowing a bit from June onward:

And yes, those two embedded Dow Jones Newswires headlines came displayed online one right after the other:  even the FinMedia is hedging!  Let’s see how next week’s incoming load of 20 Econ Baro metrics — plus Q2 financial entities’ earnings — plus the on-again off-again on-again war — affect it all.  As for our recently math-measured case for a -10% correction in the S&P 500, instead, the mighty Index now at 7575 is within a day’s trading range of another record high, which would be above 7616.  (No, we’re not shelving our -10% correction notion).

Which puts us in mind of this classic graphic included in The Gold Update of 10 February 2024, the S&P 500 then -34% lower than ’tis today.  (Yes, really).  Why re-post it now as ’twas then, rather than update it?  Because the theorized “stock market” red line would be well above the chart’s available frame space:

“Very funny, mmb, yeah I remember it…”

Squire, we also remember this from the same missive as regards the price/earnings ratio of the S&P:

  • The day before the Garzarelli Crash of ’87 the P/E was 20.3x;
  • The day before commencement of the DotComBomb of ’00-’02 the P/E was 29.3x; 
  • The day before the start of the FinCrisis of ’07-’09, the P/E was 18.7x.

Today (per the opening Scoreboard) the S&P 500’s P/E is 47.0x.  “Whoopsie!”

Just do the math yourself, of which at times we’ve cited “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) is incapable:

Indeed, Got Gold?”

Cheers!

…m…

10 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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At present, we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper all above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate; of note thereto, the non-BEGOS Yen has already traced 160% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Despite Oil’s ongoing negative linreg, its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) yesterday confirmed having moved above the key -80% axis, indicative of still higher prices near-term, (which fundamentally would be in sync should the war re-heat). The Spoo remains the sole BEGOS component with a positive linreg, albeit that is now weakening. Tomorrow brings the 869th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As previously stated, nothing is due for the Econ Baro. And the first week of Q2 Earnings Season concludes today.

09 July 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same is Oil and within same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The re-heating of the war did not play well into the S&P 500 yesterday, albeit price firmed in the latter part of the session, and would open a bit higher still were stocks to open at this instant; still, we remain sensitive to a -10% correction for the S&P, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency having (in real-time) kinked lower. Too, as noted yesterday, the Bond’s linreg (also in real-time) has provisionally rotated to negative, even as price is higher thus far in this session; therefore, the only BEGOS component still with a positive linreg at the moment is the Spoo. The Econ Baro concludes its light week today, incoming metrics including June’s Existing Home Sales.

08 July 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Notably, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) having been narrowing since March/April, at a time when the war was a more dominant trading influence, some examples of maximums-to-now being Oil above 10 points then vs. 3.19 for today, the Spoo 142 points then vs. 99 for today, Silver over 13 points then vs. 3.45 points today, and Gold 283 points then vs. 112 today. As to the Bond, its linreg (see Market Trends) appears en route to rotating to negative by week’s end: the 30yr yield has moved back above 5% for the first time in three weeks. Today the Econ Baro looks to May’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit. And at 18:00 GMT come the FOMC Minutes from the 16/17 June meeting.

07 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Presently, we’ve the Bond, Swiss Franc, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate and the Spoo below their respective Neutral Zones for today; otherwise, the Euro and Oil are within same, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. By Market Trends, only the Bond and Spoo are in positive linreg, the latter having twice flirted in rotating to negative within the past three weeks; that noted, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are curling upward for every BEGOS component, save for the Bond. Looking at our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) the Euro’s 30mn MACD, Silver’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s daily Moneyflow, plus (on a 24-test basis) Copper’s 6hr MACD, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow and Oil’s 2hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Trade Deficit, which by consensus is expected to be far more negative than normal, (’tis said), due to excessive demand for foreign supplies over fears of shortages due to the war, (i.e. higher-than-normal imports).

06 July 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The two-day session continues from Friday for settlement today, with at present the Swiss Franc below its Neutral Zone, whilst above same are Gold, Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility continues as moderate. The Gold Update looks to price’s negative trend as abating, with near-term potential above 4400 for Gold and back up into the 70s for Silver; the weekly Parabolic Short trend for Gold can reasonably flip to Long by month’s end; Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been (on a 10-test basis) the daily Moneyflow and (on a 24-test basis) the 30mn MACD; for Silver, her best per those test bases have been the 12hr Parabolics and 6hr MACD. The Econ Baro begins a fairly light week of incoming data with June’s ISM(Svc) Index. And this is the first week of Q2 Earnings Season, the initial reports arriving following Tuesday’s session.

The Gold Update: No. 868 – (04 July 2026) – “Get Gold Groovin’!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 868th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Get Gold Groovin’!“

We really like what we’re now seeing for Gold.  After many-a-week of downside drudgery, ‘twould appear the yellow-metal is at least poised to make a turn back up, perhaps substantively so.  More on that in a minute, but first:

StateSide — it being “The Fourth of July” (No. 250) — let’s start with some feuding fireworks from the FinMedia as regards FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh this past Thursday at 2026’s European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal.  Both these headlines appeared simultaneously “above the fold” late Thursday by the cited sources:

  • Bloomy:  “Signs of economic strength alongside easing price pressures … Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation risks have come down.”

  • CNBS:  “Fed Chief Kevin Warsh … says inflation ‘too high'”

Query:

So which is it?

  • Have inflation risks actually come down, indicative of no rate hike on 29 July?
  • Or is inflation actually too high, supportive of a rate hike on 29 July?

Response:

We already know by simple grade-school arithmetic it ought be the latter.  As our May Inflation Summary (herein posted a week ago) showed — and bearing in mind the Federal Reserve’s targeted +2.0% pace — annualized inflation by May’s 12-month average is running at +4.3%, and by annualizing May alone ’tis +5.8%.  What ever happened to +2.0%?  Warsh wants it.  Thus, the second of those queries clearly is the more appropriate … save that today’s mathematically-challenged FinWorld consensus expects the 29 July Open Market Committee voting to “Not raise!”

“But hang on, mmb, ’cause April’s annualized average was +8.0%, so by that, risks are coming down…”

Squire, any way ’tis couched, every major inflation measure is running well beyond the adamantly Fed-targeted +2.0%.  That stated, perhaps +2.0% has become archaic.  Just as has an S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (now 46.2x) ever returning to the portfolio theory standard of 15x become archaic, (until ’tisn’t).

Specific to Gold, its prior-week teasing of Fair Value (now 3984 per the opening Scoreboard) heralded buying.  Before Gold’s gain of this past week, 12 of the previous 18 were net down.  But price then settled Thursday at 4136 (this holiday-shortened week’s official COMEX close) and yesterday (Friday ) furthered itself to as high as 4208 prior to hitting the abbreviated session’s “trading halt” at 4187 toward Monday settlement, (yes the same unusual scheduling as was the case two weeks ago).

So in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends since this time a year ago, we’ve printed the Friday “halt” price rather than Thursday’s settle, (as technically we’re already trading Monday).  Moreover, our sense is Gold — at long last — looks to make an up-run toward, in due course, meeting the cascading red dots of the now 16-week parabolic Short trend.  And just in case you’re scoring at home, the midpoint between price (4187) and parabolic (4765) is 4476, i.e. some +289 points above here.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  269 points.  So barring Gold going straight up, ’tis still feasible that this parabolic Short trend shall meet its end come month-end:

“Still, that’s moving a lot back above Fair Value, mmb…”

A welcome “teed-up” point there, Squire.  Fair Value is the most ponderously-moving valuation for Gold:  ’tis a very “Big Picture” measure that spans decades.  And earlier this year we found Gold rocketing quite excessively far above Fair Value, the record high of 5586 a distance (then above 3868) of +1,718 points, for which we stated week-after-week (albeit as a bit of a lone wolf) that price had “gotten well ahead of itself”.  Thus came the decline across five months to re-meet Fair Value as herein depicted a week ago, price then straightaway turning back up.

Now Gold appears again ready to get its engines movin’ and start groovin’.  To wit, our one-year chart of Gold astride its BEGOS Market Value, which (per the Scoreboard) at now 4270 is nearly +2% (+83 points) higher than present price.  ‘Tis not far to go given Gold’s expected daily trading range is now 125 points.  Here’s the graphic:

Another of our favourite leading indicators are the “Baby Blues” which measure regression trend consistency.  And it being month-end (plus a few trading days), let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets.  Each panel charts the last 21 trading days (one month) with its grey diagonal trend line and the “Blues”, for which we specifically address your attention to both Gold and Silver.  Their respective “Blues” have commenced the welcome curling upward from the -80% level, the rule being to expect still higher prices near-term.  We thus placed the “BUY” signal at both crossings, (Silver having come first in closing out June, followed by Gold into week’s end).  Let’s see if near-term Gold tests its mid-panel high at 4404 and that for Silver at 71.65.  Cautiously however, a rate hike scare may not bring those levels to bear:  thus cash management remains as ever paramount.  On verra…

In staying with the BEGOS Markets, for the once-dominant precious metals, they’ve quite literally dropped from first to worst as we go to our year-to-date standings, Copper being the sole element of our Metals Triumvirate still on a podium position.  ‘Course, with a hat-tip to the “Prices Are Not Unidirectional Dept.” one can’t overly complain:  Gold now -3.3% was +64.1% last year, with Silver now -11.5% having been +142.3%.  And with respect to those aforementioned mid-panel highs, if achieved, both Gold and Silver would again be above water on the year:

Furthering the opportunity for the metals to move higher are their having overcome (in part due to comments from “The Warrior”) what had been substantive overhead volume/price resistance per the 10-day Market Profiles, updated below for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The white closing bars represent Friday’s “halt” prices, (the Profiles themselves as assembled through Thursday):

Now given the leverage of the metals’ equities, year-to-date has been anything but great, their downside fireworks having abetted one’s loss rate.  Yet, this graphic’s bunch are all still up from a full year ago-to-date, with notably Gold the least so at +25%, bettered by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +30%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +33%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +51%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +63%, Newmont (NEM) +65%, and the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +66%.  But across the board from last winter’s highs, the percentage drops have been massive.  Now comes the chance to recover a bit:

As to Gold’s structure by the month since the year 2020, price’s last four consecutive down months (March through June) may just now be getting some relief this early July (the rightmost candle) after gettin’ no “Satisfaction”: 

All of which brings us to the Baro, back from whence we started with FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh in Portugal alluding to signs of economic strength with easing price pressures, albeit admitting inflation is too high.  By the Economic Barometer, the StateSide economy already has been showing strength essentially year-over-year, as we see here, although the curve of late (as anticipated a week go) continues to flatten, ‘twould appear:

So there we are, half the year but a memoir.  Our deMeadville analytics are indicative of higher Gold near-term, supported (just maybe) by a little waffling as to Fed direction.  Again, how might “The Warrior” be drafting it?

In the interim, let’s get groovin’ rather than fazed, and watch precious metals’ prices get raised!

…m…

03 July 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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StateSide physical bourses are closed in recognition of tomorrow’s holiday; however, the BEGOS Markets are again in a two-day session (with a trading halt today at 17:00 GMT) for Monday settlement. And save for the Bond, the seven other BEGOS components presently are up, six being above their respective Neutral Zones; the Bond and Oil are within same, and session volatility already is mostly moderate. Gold has done quite well after bottoming a week ago in and around Fair Value: more on the metals in tomorrow’s 868th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo for the second time in the past three weeks has reversed its negative linreg (see Market Trends) back to positive; ’tis been our sense that the S&P 500 is into a -10% correction down toward the 6800s, yet money keeps flowing back into the Index, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is at this moment an excessively high 46.6x. A Happy, Safe & Sane Fourth to our StateSide mates!