Mark

The Gold Update: No. 873 – (08 August 2026) – “Gold Finally Finds Its 4000 Floor”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 873rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Finally Finds Its 4000 Floor“

In settling yesterday (Friday) at 4401, Gold just posted its second best of the 31 full trading weeks year-to-date:  a +7.4% increase, second only to the +8.3% gain for that ending back on 23 January.  Cue “This Magic Moment” –[The Drifters, ’60] … or more specifically the “magic minute” of the past week that arrived Friday at precisely 12:30 GMT upon the StateSide release of July’s “Non-Farm Payrolls”.

As is our wont come the release, rather than look at what — back in the day — was referred to as “The Mother of All Numbers”, we simply watched the markets.  And within the 60 seconds from 12:30-12:31, the price of Gold low-to-high went from 4371 to 4418, some +47 points or +1.1%.  Instantly our notion (without yet being knowledgeable of the data) was that Payrolls — rather than having increased per consensus — must actually have shrunk:  so then we looked … and indeed they had!  More on that later when we assess the eroding state of the Economic Barometer.

“Don’t forget the ¥en support also, mmb… ”

Noted, dear Squire, (and welcome back from your appreciated fire zone duties).  As to the ¥en, whilst not eliciting as instantaneous a move for Gold, price nonetheless benefitted into the new week following the previous Friday’s direct dumping of €26B by the NY Fed for ¥en, with the Finance Ministry in Japan further loading up on its own currency in dispensing some $90B.  Thus by conventional wisdom, (even as we’ve demonstrated over these many years that Gold plays no currency favourites), ’twas down with the Dollar and up with Gold.

“And so 4000 is now lookin’ like a floor, huh mmb?”

‘Twould appear at least the near-term case, Squire.  Two missives ago we encircled the 4000 area within “Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor”, only to just last week acknowledge “Gold Resumes Skidding…”.  But then came the USA/JPN yen to buy the ¥en (which actually settled this past week slightly below Monday’s open, although still well up from the prior Friday), and thus — along with Payrolls’ shrinkage for July — here is the rightmost effect of it all by Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date:

Further, following now 21 weeks of parabolic Short trend, (the most since that ending in May 2013), barring it all suddenly going wrong for the yellow metal, the red dots likely shall return to bullish blues as the new week ensues.  At 4401, Gold need advance just +33 points toward eclipsing the 4434 “flip-to-Long” level as depicted in the above graphic.  So just in case you’re scoring at home, Gold’s expected daily trading range (per the website) is now 98 points and the weekly 235 points.

As well, that which we’d been anticipating these last few weeks finally came to fruition:  with the 4000 floor essentially having held, our “Baby Blues” of trend consistency sufficiently rose to rotate what had (for Gold) been a negative regression trend across 66 trading days, and (for Silver) 46 trading days, back to positive.  Et voilà, (a little French lingo there), per this next telling graphic we’ve again noted our “BUY” signals upon the “Baby Blues” crossing above the key -80% axes as originally encircled effective for Sister Silver come her 01 July close at 59.61 and for Gold from the 02 July close at 4136.  And you regular readers know the rule:  “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”, for which in these two cases we’ve “connected the dots” from “BUY” to right now for emphasis .  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng, if admittedly having to “weather the dips” (aka “employ cash management”) en route.  And yet, even subtracting the recent +60 points (as previously discussed) of fresh December Gold contract premium, price from the “BUY” to today is +5.0% and that for Silver +7.0%:

Amidst this renewed mirth for Gold, as penned in last Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary, price has:  “… crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 11 March…”  Thus as further denoted in following year-over-year graphic, such run sub-Market Value lasted exactly 100 trading days which is a century-to-date record, even exceeding the above-Market Value record of 88 days achieved just last year.  To be sure, Gold today at 4401 is (by the opening Scoreboard) +6.0% above its BEGOS Market Value, indeed +9.4% above Fair Value.  But the latter is a far more ponderous measure, whereas when Gold breaks above its smooth valuation line as below shown, ’tis a buy signal of its own:

With the past week’s rallies in the bag, the Smart Alec Shorts are waving the white flag.  For as indicated by the respective 10-day Market Profiles next for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right, prices have well-departed the lower drudgery, out of which for weeks they could not break:

As to our aforementioned Econ Baro, the blue line continues a downward drift in this year ago-to-date view.  The best incoming metric of the past week was Q2’s preliminary Productivity having nearly doubled from +0.8% in Q1 to now +1.4%.  Problematic thereto?  Productivity tends to rise as the human workforce subsides:  “Oh blame it on AI!”  For indeed, the week’s weak links were the stated July Payrolls’ shrinkage, ADP’s own July employment data reported as less than half that gained in June, and Construction Spending (for which workers are on-site requisite) also shrinking in July, missing estimates, with June revised lower as well.  Reprise Fleetwood Mac from ’69: “Oh well…”.  Besides, with the S&P 500 at an all-time high, all must be well, (do tell?):

Speaking of the S&P, we close with its price/earnings ratio … and guess what just happened?  Bob Shiller’s long-revered CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings) just surpassed ours.  Since the debut of the ever-honestly calculated deMeadville “live” P/E back in 2013, here by the month we’ve ours, along with Shiller’s and that compiled by S&P/DJI itself, the latter being comparably lower, yet still double the “acceptable maximum” as taught in portfolio theory, (an ancient science with which has been discarded in this modern Investing Age of Stoopid):


Thus as we on occasion quip, (until they again do), “Earnings don’t matter anymore.”

But Gold always matters, regardless of a 4000 floor, or more!

Cheers!

…m…

07 August 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Presently, both Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold appears to have finally found its 4000s’ floor at least for the near-term: more of course in tomorrow’s 873rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 continues to be buoyed by “AI” hype and overall earnings improvement: now five weeks into Q2 Earnings Season, 78% of the 418 constituents having thus far reported bettered their bottom lines over the like quarter a year ago; regardless, the excessively high (understatement) “live” futs-adj’d P/E is 41.5x and the wee yield 1.084%; (the 3mo T-Bill currently yields an annualized 3.732%). For the Econ Baro we’ve the Payrolls’ data for July, plus late in the session June’s Consumer Credit.

06 August 2026 – 08:36 Central Euro Time

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Copper is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; otherwise, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. By Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency confirmed having moved above their key -80% axis, indicative of higher prices near-term: currently 110 even, we could see 112 tapped on an up run; the Bond’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) the 2hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) the 1hr Moneyflow; the BEGOS Market Value for the Bond is (in real-time) 113^11, so there is room to also revert up toward that smooth valuation line. Both Gold and Silver recorded net gains yesterday of +4.2%: for Gold, ’twas its fourth-best daily net gain year-to-date, and for Silver ’twas 21st-best. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s Wholesale Inventories and Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

05 August 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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Yesterday’s +1.8% straight-up gain in the S&P 500 would be — back in the day — referred to as a “blow-off top”, albeit the Spoo at this instant is poised for a further +0.4% S&P opening gap. At present, the Spoo is above its Neutral Zone for today, as are the Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light, save for the precious metals of which Gold has traced 136% of its EDTR and Silver 98% (see Market Ranges). Gold (4233, +2.4%) has in real-time provisionally crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 11 March and — as we’ve be anticipating for some two weeks — its 21-day linreg has rotated to positive, as has provisionally that for Silver. Thus, ‘twould appear that our sought 4000 floor for Gold is forming. For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index.

04 August 2026 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

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By the Spoo, were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be spot on 7621, the all-time high established back on 03 June. At present, the Spoo along with Silver, Copper and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Bond; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Spoo yesterday crossed back above its Market Value: in real-time, the Spoo is +42 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; by the same measure for the other four primary BEGOS components, the Bond is -4^12 points “low”, the Euro -0.006 points “low”, Gold -37 points “low” and Oil +5.31 points “high”. The “live” P/E of this S&P at this futs-adj’d record high is 41.2x and the yield 1.087%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.700%. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.

03 August 2026 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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With the war yet again “on hold”, the BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) are benefitting: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update sees price as still working to form a 4000s’ floor, albeit the broader technical picture has weakened such that a revisit of the 3500s wouldn’t be untoward, especially should the war re-accelerate with Oil and the Dollar then again getting the bid. Our recent anticipation of Gold and Silver having their respective linregs (see Market Trends) rotate from negative to positive has yet to occur, although the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising and nearing the 0% axis for both metals. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro of 15 incoming metrics, beginning today with July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 872 – (01 August 2026) – “Gold Resumes Skidding, (Fresh Premium Kidding)”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 872nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 August 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Resumes Skidding, (Fresh Premium Kidding)“

In wrapping a week ago, we wrote that we’d be on a short fuse this time ’round, even as ’tis a month-end edition of The Gold Update, (normally lengthier that the standard weekly editions).  Thus time being of the essence, (and with Squire away on voluntary fire duty), we’re dispensing with the usual verbosity’s wisdom and wit by going this week via a point-by-point format, plus for you a rare earlier posting bonus!  Ready?

Gold:  Per Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary, the COMEX futures “front month” contract made its annual four-month leap from August to December, incorporating +60 points of fresh premium into price.  So, although the December’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 4099 is higher that last week’s August settle of 4056, Gold in fact netted a mild down week of -17 points (-0.4%) rather than the premium’s injection kidding us with a +43 points (+1.1%) gain.  Whilst 60 points is less than Gold’s current expected daily trading range of 86 points, in charting by the “continuous contract”, we dutifully indicate the discrepancy below in the weekly bars graphic from a year ago-to-date.  Regardless, the red-dotted parabolic trend remains Short through now 20 weeks, although we still perceive price as (hopefully) fostering a floor:

Gold n’ PM Equities:  Amongst primary precious metal equities also from a year ago-to-date, their respective percentage tracks now rank as follows:   Pan American Silver (PAAS) +58%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +54%, Newmont (NEM) +50%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +43%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, Gold itself +25%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +18%:

The Fed n’ Inflation:  This past Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee disputedly voted to maintain the Bank’s Funds rate within the 3.50%-to-3.75% targeted range.  Our believing for better than two years that a rate raise would be appropriate, we recently (again) resigned ourselves to the fact that the FOMC would stand pat.  Yet, (per Thursday’s Precious Commentary) “…we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise…”:  Hammack, Kashkari and Logan.  That acknowledged, come the 16 September Policy Statement, we might not only witness further dissention amongst the 12 voters, but directional disagreement as well.  To wit, per our inflation summary for June, the average 12-month summation is an “ought raise” +4.0% … but the average annualized pace specific only to June is an “ought cut” deflationary -1.0%  Stay tuned(!):

The BEGOS Markets’ Standings:  Turning to our BEGOS Markets’ Standings through these first seven months of 2026, Silver — her having topped the chart at January’s end — has since been relegated to the basement.  And for how much longer can the S&P 500 maintain double-digit percentage increases year-after-year?  Meanwhile as the war wears on, Big Oil continues to rule the roost:

The BEGOS Markets’ Trends:  As to the near-term trends, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components by their daily bars from 21-days (one month) ago-to-date.  Save perhaps for our always welcome rookie readers, you already know the baby blue dots determine the consistency of the respective diagonal grey trend lines.  Thus therein, Oil and Copper are the most consistently up, the Bond most consistently down, and the balance of the bunch a consistent mess:

The Econ Baro n’ S&P 500:  Both the Economic Barometer and S&P 500 have at best been in sideways trends these last three months, characterized by war worries, rate worries, and denial of what ought well be earnings worries.  Of last week’s 11 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just four were better period-over-period.  Worse, Q2’s first peek at Gross Domestic Product ex-inflation was only +1.5%; add back the Chain Deflator of a whopping +6.3% (the highest since coming out of COVID during Q2 of 2022) and 81% of Q2 GDP total “growth” was by inflation rather than improvement.  (We wonder if that was mentioned on FoxyB, Bloomy, CNBS, et alia…).  And as for an “ignorance is bliss” Q2 Earnings Season, the numbers thus far look great:  of the 289 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 79% have bettered their year-over-year quarterly bottom lines.  But:  with the honestly-calculated S&P price/earnings ratio (ttm-basis) having settled yesterday at 41.3x, paying $41 for something that earns $1 — plus the risk of principal loss — isn’t our cup of tea.  Here are the Baro and S&P for you to see:

Gold n’ Silver Profiles:  Of course, precious metals investing is not also without periods of significant risk for principal loss.  Regardess, just briefly century-to-date, yield-less Gold is +1,397% and Silver +1,145%, whereas the S&P is +839% including reinvestment of dividends, else ’tis +467% ex-dividends, including having weathered two -50% corrections (the DotComBomb and FinCrisis).  Is the next one nigh?  Just askin’…  Currently somewhat awry are the precious metals prices, both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) entrapped within their congestive 10-day Market Profiles.  For Gold, the prices are basis December, (Silver’s are still September):

Gold Structure:  Naturally, it being month-end, here next we’ve the Gold Structure by the monthly “continuous contract” candles across the past six years. The rightmost candle (July 2026) is the stubbiest by both points (253) and range (6.4% low-to-high) since August a year ago.  This overall broader-term view is in a technically-negative stance; should a “floor” not form through here, further skidding toward 3500 may be in the bidding:

The Finish featuring FinMedia Follies:  Following Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement and FedHead Warsh presser, the S&P 500 recorded an intra-day drop of -1.8%, after which we noted these few assessments from the FinMedia, (with our parenthetical quips):

  • Bloomy:  “Nasdaq 100 enters correction”, (after having already been “correcting” for the prior eight weeks);

  • Barron’s:  “…historic crash…” and DJNW:  “…Savage Selloff…”, (again we’re talking here about a -1.8% intra-day S&P pullback; they’ve no idea of what “savage” nor “historic” is; across the last 46 years there have been over 1,000 worse intra-day S&P drops … yeah, we did the math);

  • Bloomy:  “Why fresh volatility means a ‘valuation opportunity’ is opening up in U.S. stocks”, (’tis called going Short).

With today’s short writing fuse at its end, we leave you with this time-honoured reminder:  “Complacency breeds failure”, –[Andy Grove, ’96].  No kidding.  Go with Gold!

Cheers!

…m…

31 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Into month’s end, we’ve both the Bond and Spoo at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; BEGOS Market’s session volatility is mostly moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation we currently have is negative between Oil and the Spoo. Even as Gold is lower today — and excluding the fresh +60 points of December cac premium — price “appears” en route to a second consecutive up week for the first time since that ending 17 April: more of course in tomorrow’s 872nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro finishes its week with July’s Chi PMI and revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index. And through now better than half of Q2 Earnings Season, 79% of S&P 500 constituents have thus far beaten their-over-year bottom lines, a well-above average improvement pace, (albeit the “live” [futs-adj’d] P/E of the S&P is an unsustainably high 41.7x).

30 July 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

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As anticipated, the Fed stood pat on its Funds rate, albeit we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise: today’s PCE data for June shall complete the month’s inflation puzzle. At present, we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. To be taken with a grain of salt given the ways of the war, Oil’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) have dropped beneath the key +80 axis, normally suggestive of lower prices; too by Market Values, Oil is (in real-time) +10.26 points above its smooth valuation line. In addition the PCE, ’tis a heavy-weight day for the Econ Baro, other incoming metrics including June’s Personal Income/Spending and the first peek at Q2 GDP.

29 July 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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Gold’s cac volume is making its annual four-month leap from August to December with 60 points of fresh premium; whilst marginally material, we bear in mind that Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points, (i.e. the premium is less than one day’s trading range). Presently, we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is moderate. Yesterday, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate moved beneath their Market Magnets, suggestive of further near-term selling even as Gold and Silver are getting a bid thus far today, (Copper is mildly lower). The economic event of the day is the FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT): we expect no change in the Funds rate as recently inflation has cooled such as to give the Fed some breathing room, even as 12-month summations remain above target; of note, June’s PCE data is not due until tomorrow, (i.e. post-Fed).

28 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Following yesterday’s S&P 500 “failure day”, the Spoo at present is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are Oil and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is again mostly moderate. The Spoo yesterday settled beneath its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 09 April, suggestive of still lower prices; too by Market Trends, as anticipated, the Spoo’s linreg has (in real-time) rotated to negative; however those for both Gold and Silver remain negative. Seven of the eight BEGOS components today (save for the Bond) are seeing their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency dropping. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 41.7x and the yield 1.124%; that for the 3mo T-Bill is 3.797%. And the Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.

27 July 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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The war again on pause is bullish for most of the BEGOS Markets in starting the week: six of the eight components are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same and Copper within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update is suggestive of the yellow metal finding a floor toward staying above 4000: currently 4098, Gold’s smooth valuation line (in real-time) is 4156 (see Market Values). Copper on Friday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropping beneath the key +80% axis (see Market Trends): thus the red metal’s trend remains up, but is weakening. As the week unfolds, we’ll be watching for the linregs of the precious metals rotating to positive and that for the Spoo to negative, even as the latter is quite firm thus far today. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders. The FOMC’s Policy Statement comes Wednesday prior to the “Fed-favoured” PCE data on Thursday.

The Gold Update: No. 871 – (25 July 2026) – “Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 871st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Fits and Starts in Finding a Floor“

Our having taken on more of a bullish bent these last few weeks, we ~finally~ can open with some pleasing news:  Gold just recorded an up week.

“Well, it really wasn’t much of a big deal, mmb… ”

True enough, Squire.  Yet thus far through the year’s 29 trading weeks, Gold just recorded only its fourth positive one in the last 14: “Happy days are here again…” –-[Milton Ager & Jack (not Janet) Yellen, ’29].

Indeed en route to settling this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4056, price rocketed higher from Monday into Wednesday, at one point up +3.7% to 4171.  But we’ll gladly accept the week’s net gain — wee as ’twas (+0.8%) — after all the recent fits and starts — dare we say “derring-do” — that Gold’s been through.

Further, Gold (serendipitously or otherwise) has been fostering friendship with Fair Value.

“That’s ’cause you’ve been pointing it out a lot, mmb… ”

Squire, we appreciate the supportive comment.  Either way, Fair Value remains our favoured — albeit the most particularly ponderous measure — for reasonable Gold valuation.  To be sure, Fair Value shall be a bit of a laggard to the actual price of Gold upon the Federal Reserve having to bail out both the U.S. Treasury’s debt and to fund investment banking coffers (thus avoiding your receiving an I.O.U. instead of cash upon selling your stock) given the ratio of the S&P 500’s market capitalization/liquid money supply is now 2.8x (per the opening Scoreboard).  In the offing then comes five-figure Gold, as previously we’ve herein foretold.

But again, the beauty of Fair Value (barring a deflationary depression and a sapping/reinvention of the money supply) is that it rises over the long haul.  Yes, since President Nixon nixed the Gold Standard back on 15 August 1971, the price of Gold has typically trailed Fair Value, only to have dramatically caught up — and then some (understatement) — upon Gold last year having “morphed into a meme stock” as the trading herd changed the yellow metal’s status from “Relic” to “Must have it!”

All that said, we oft think of Gold as an attractive, very long-term buy when trading at or below Fair Value.  Here from one year ago-to date are Gold’s daily bars and gradually rising Fair Value line.  Note therein Fair Value’s rightmost “supportive” nature of late:

‘Course, from the “Double Negative Dept.”, Fair Value presently appearing “supportive” doesn’t preclude Gold not going down.  The war is weary on Gold as the Dollar rises toward accommodating the transaction of Oil.  Thus here we’ve the percentage tracks war-to-date of Gold, Oil (West Texas Intermediate) and the Dollar “Dixie” Index.  The latter’s line lacks alacrity based on how ’tis priced by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange); but since the war’s commencement on 28 February, “Dixie” is up nearly +4%, which historically across any 101-trading day range (per this case) is fairly exceptional:

Regardless, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend continues its Short course as we go to the bars and dots from one year ago-to-date.  And yet, is Gold finally finding a floor?  Aided or not by Fair Value (now 3999), price is fighting to maintain 4000.  Still, ’tis a bit of a stretch to flip the trend back to Long:  as below shown, such price for the ensuing week is 4546, requisite of an up move of at least +490 points (+12.1%).  Has Gold every gained +12.1% in a single week?  Century-to-date, just once for that ending 19 September 2008 as it all went wrong for equities et alia into the FinCrisis.  As for Gold’s expected weekly trading range, ’tis now 235 points, in which vacuum ‘twould take price more than two “straight-up-weeks” to set the trend Long.  Yet favourably — should this be a floor — for Gold’s upside there’s more, (subject to the state of the war):

Next in drilling down to “The Now”, we go to our two-panel Gold graphic featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Should you regularly read the website’s daily Prescient Commentary, you’re aware of our notion for Gold’s 21-day linear regression trend rotating toward positive:  we’d been anticipating ‘twould happen by last week’s end; but then the war re-heated again and Gold lacked the puff to rotate as such, evidenced by the baby blue dots not quite clearing the 0% axis.  However:  if Gold is putting in a floor, we ought see the new positive trend evolve into next week.  Else by the Profile, price is fairly centered, supported by a nearby array of volume-dominant levels as labeled, although the big point over which to come is 4069:

Too, Silver continues to perform in line with Gold.  Here we’ve her like panels with the “Baby Blues” (below left) and Profile (below right).  Should Sister Silver clear her most volume-dominant resistor as labeled at 59.15, it ought be “Hello 60s!”:

Be that as it may, the wildcard remains the war which from one day to the next waxes and wanes on that being said from behind the White House’s window panes.  Cue The Temptations’ hit from back in 1970: “Ball of Confusion (That’s What the World Is Today)”

Which is a neat segue into the Economic Barometer.  The Baro has been in a confused state for some three months, yet fortunately had a deserved rest this past week as just three incoming metrics arrived, the downer being the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators for June.  But the month’s New Home Sales beat both consensus and those for May, which also were revised higher.  Moreover came the math-challenged FinMedia excitedly reporting that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 18 July at 187k were the lowest since 1969.  Wrong:  since the Baro’s inception in 1998, there’ve been not one but seven other weeks of less Claims, the least being 167K for the week ending 02 April 2022.  (Still watching that FinTV, Bunky?  Bummer).  Here’s the Baro:

With respect to stocks, yesterday we received a solicitory email with the subject “Are you ready for the crash?”  We’ve been ready for four years.  “Oh, but earnings season is so great!”, they say.  Year-over-year, yes, thus far ’tis “great”.  Of the 118 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 85% (100) have recorded bottom-line improvement.  However, from “The Record Needle is Stuck Dept.”, we again point out that to sustain such excessive levels of prices, earnings ought be doubling, if not tripling.

“But they’re not, right mmb?”

No they’re not, Squire, although the S&P’s “live” price/earnings ratio has come down a bit through these first three weeks of Q2 Earnings Season from 46.5x to now 42.2x (again per our opening Scoreboard).  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means if you buy the S&P today, you’re paying $42.20 for something that earns $1.00.  Sure, one can add in the teeny 1.133% dividend yield, but prices (believe it or not) can actually go south.  ‘Course, they always come back, right?  Recall it took the S&P 500 a mere 13 years to record a 2% peak-to-peak gain from 2000 into 2013 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Obviously we find this more preferential:

Quick note:  Next week’s 872nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall likely be composed on somewhat of a short time fuse.  Still, it being a month-end missive, ’twill contain all the graphics you expect to see with just a bit less verbosity, but to the point.  On verra … and for Gold and Silver, hopefully a “Hurrah!” for finding a floor!

Cheers!

…m…

24 July 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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Oil per last Monday’s comment reached (and then some) our Market Values target of 86 on Wednesday, trading yesterday to as high as 93.50; price today is at present below its Neutral Zone, as is that for Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold intraweek had gained as much as +3.7%, although that essentially has since entirely evaporated: more of course in tomorrow’s 871st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; too, our suggestion by Market Trends of the precious metals’ linregs rotating to positive shan’t pan out by today, although an ensuing up week could elicit such rotation. But inclusive of Copper, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate yesterday dropped beneath volume-dominant Market Profile support and saw their Market Magnets penetrated to the downside. The Econ Baro concludes a basically inactive week with June’s New Home Sales. And as the third week of Q2 Earnings Season finishes, for the S&P 500’s 112 constituents having thus far reported, 85% have bettered their year-over-year bottom lines, albeit the “live” (fut’s adj’d) P/E at this instant is an extremely high 43.1x and the paltry yield but 1.131%; that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill is now 3.800%.

23 July 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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The Euro and Oil are both at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again mostly light. Gold (in real-time 4127) is -24 points beneath its BEGOS Market Value of 4151: as suggested in recent writings, eclipsing the Market Value ought set the run for 4300-4400; too (as noted yesterday), the precious metals may be in positive linreg by the weekend per the Market Trends page. On the opposite end of the Market Values spectrum, the Bond yesterday confirmed crossing below its smooth valuation line (110^18) to now 110 even: thus price perhaps is en route to re-testing the 20 May low of 108^31. The sole incoming metric today for the Econ Baro is the usual Thursday report of Initial Jobs Claims from the prior week.

22 July 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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As we’ve been anticipating near-term, Gold is into a firm week, having yesterday gained +1.8% and today up another +1.0%; price at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; below same are both Copper and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Gold is also making progress towards its smooth valuation line, in real-time now just -27 points “low” vis-à-vis its Market Value; for the other primary BEGOS components, the Bond shows as essentially on its Market Value, the Euro as +0.014 points “high”, Oil as +8.72 points “high” and the Spoo as +170 points “high”. Too for the precious metals, both Gold and Silver yesterday crossed back above their Market Magnets, indicative of still higher prices near-term; into the balance of the week, both metals may see their linregs rotate from negative to positive (see Market Trends). As the Econ Baro’s quiet week continues, nothing is due today.

21 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, as is the Spoo; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again mostly moderate. Looking at Market Trends, we’ve four that are positive: the Euro, Copper, Oil and Spoo, and thus four which are negative: the Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver; however therein, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising for each market except the Bond and Spoo. The Bond yesterday fell below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 111^06 to now 110^25: our best Market Rhythm for the Bond of pure swing consistency is (10-test basis) the 15mn Price Oscillator and (24-test basis) the 2hr Moneyflow. The S&P 500’s MoneyFlow relative to the Index itself is positive per all three of our timeframes (weekly, monthly quarterly) suggestive that investors have yet (these recent years) to be put off by the high P/E (at this moment futs-adj’d being 44.7x).

20 July 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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The Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Silver and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. The Gold Update sees price closely sandwiched between Fair Value (3994) and the BEGOS Market Value (in real-time 4151), albeit the key trends (daily linreg and weekly Parabolics) remain negative. Oil on Friday settled above its own BEGOS Market Value: we sense there is a run to at least 86, although price has already gapped higher to start the week; looking at Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) the 6hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) the 2hr MACD. Following a very busy week of 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just three come due for this week, beginning today with June’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. Rather, taking center stage is Q2 Earnings Season, its third week kicking into high gear.

The Gold Update: No. 870 – (18 July 2026) – “Gold Hope Need Cope With Downslope”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 870th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Hope Need Cope With Downslope“

Rarely as has occured across 17 years of composing The Gold Update, we are having one of those Bob Hope moments.  Roll the tape, Squire:

  • “Boy, Did I Get a Wrong Number!” –[Bob Hope, Elke Sommer, Phyllis Diller, U.A., ’66]

“And a hilarious movie, mmb!”

Indeed so, Squire, but not so hilarious here, given the last two weeks our having become more stridently Gold bullish in seeking a near-term number of 4404.  Rather, Gold continues hoping to cope with its ongoing negative downslope.  Priced at 4129 per our prior penning, this past week the yellow metal got floored from its bed to instead trade as low as 3963 toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 4023.  ‘Twas Gold’s tenth down week in the last 13.

Thus now at 4023, Gold is -28% below its record high of 5586 (29 January).  But to further foul the fallout, a fine friend (and illustrious investor here) sees the present price pattern as potentially repeating the four-year 2011-2015 pathway of -45%.  Fortunately, we don’t so think.  For that very noun (which we admittedly abhor) “awareness” of Gold remains today well in play, whereas 15 years ago ’twas lacking cachet, (a little French lingo there).

As herein stated ad nauseam this past winter, Gold had “gotten way ahead of itself”.  Thus, such -28% decline for high-buying newbie herd followers must be frightful.  Yet year-over-year, price actually is up +20.3%.  Moreover, today’s 4023 level is neatly sandwiched by the opening Gold Scoreboard between Fair Value (3994) and its BEGOS Market Value (4152).  One may even go so far as to say that Gold today is “perfectly priced” as we update our graphic of daily closes from one year ago-to-date, incorporating the grey smooth valuation line — and as a bonus this time ’round — Fair Value throughout:

More specific to the above graphic, Gold is easily within its expected weekly trading range (244 points) of swiftly achieving a settle back above the smooth valuation line.  What then happens?  Having recently completed a 25-year study of the Market Value price-leading aspects for all five primary BEGOS components, Gold’s “maximum average” upside continuance upon crossing above the smooth line has been +4.3%.  To be sure, “maximum average” hardly is perfectly predictive; yet in that vacuum, such increase above Gold’s current BEGOS Market Value of 4152 would yield 4331 perhaps within a period of three weeks … just in case you’re scoring at home.  (Then, as charter reader JGS of the first Gold Update would say:  “And that’s before the overshoot.”)

“Perfectly priced” or otherwise, we’re still in the near-term Gold bounce camp, so-called “Dollar Strength!” be damned.  The Buck this past week hits its lowest “Dixie” level (100.145) since that ending 19 June.  Too, from the “Short-Term Memory Dept.” despite all the ballyhoo of Oil getting the Dollar a war bid, the “Dixie” today (100.565) is -8.6% below its January 2025 high of 110.015.

‘Course, because Gold decidedly has been trending down, our bullish bent remains a bit optimistic until price truly turns.  Indeed turning to Gold’s year-over-year weekly bars, the red-dotted parabolic Short trend just completed its 18th week, tying for fourth in duration century-to-date, (which again for you WestPalmBeachers down there means from 01 January 2001 through today).  Whilst “the market is never wrong”, for the Gold bull ’tis a cascade of “wrong” numbers:

Yet suddenly, is it all going “right” for the Fed?  Is the pressure off to raise the Funds rate come the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote on 29 July?  Can they instead simply enjoy summer down in the easy chair since they “…ain’t goin’ nowhere…” –-[Dylan, ’67]?

To wit, the June inflation numbers thus far:  at the retail level the Consumer Price Index deflated -0.4%, as at the wholesale level did the Producer Price Index by -0.3%.  And as herein noted a week ago, the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation gauge shan’t be released until the day after the meeting, (barring the  Bureau of Economic Analysis tipping them off in advance, which surely wouldn’t be cricket). Yet now, you know and we know and everyone from Bangor Maine to Honolulu knows the FOMC for a rate change shall vote “No”.

But there is some mildly negative change in direction of the Economic Barometer.  Oh to be sure, nine of last week’s large batch of 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics improved period-over-period, the notable Big Winner being June’s Housing Starts which beat both consensus and those for May, even as they were revised higher.  But at the other end of the month’s housing spectrum, Building Permits notably slowed, missing consensus with May revised lower, and Pending Home Sales actually shrank at the third worst rate in nearly two years.  As for deflation?  Again cue Lewis Carroll’s Alice:  “Curiouser and curiouser…”:

“But mmb, you’re not really calling for a deflationary depression…”

Merely musing, dear Squire.  More likely first would come hyperinflation.  Today, were the Fed to “accommodate” the U.S. Treasury with $39.4T such as to retire its debt, that added to the current liquid money supply (“M2”) of $23.3T would bring the total to $62.7T.  Clearly a $7.6T international portion of could would make its way from the U.S.  Regardless, such spike of “M2” would revalue Gold by Fair Value from today’s $3,994/oz. to $10,754/oz.  With such inevitability (or portion thereof) waiting in the wings, obviously Gold’s most shining days are ahead.  And “The When” is hastening.

As to “The Now”, here next we’ve Gold’s two-panel graphic featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  And do those “Baby Blues” ever look confused in depicting the consistency of the regression trend.  ‘Tis first about saving the 4000s.  Overhead resistors, however, are as labeled in the Profile:

The sole positive about Silver’s graphic being essentially identical to that of Gold is evidence of her being donned in her precious metal pinstripes, (rather than in her industrial metal jacket when cavorting about with Cousin Copper).  That said, Copper’s regression trend (per the website) has just rotated to positive; let’s see if that influences Sister Silver in the new week:

Here now is the stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High:  5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  5411 (28 January 2026)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  4611
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  4152
The 300-Day Moving Average:  4136 and rising
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4082
Trading Resistance:  nearby Market Profile notables:  4035 / 4067 / 4083 / 4096
Gold Currently:  4023, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  100 points)
Trading Support:  per the Market Profile:  4001
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3994
10-Session directional range:  down to 3966 (from 4213) = -247 points or -5.9%
2026’s Low:  3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To close, we remain mindful of the S&P “Casino” 500’s excessive (understatement) overvaluation, the price/earnings ratio at this writing (per the opening Scoreboard) at 44.9x, (i.e. double, indeed triple, as was taught in portfolio theory).  And to that point, we always are heartened when today’s shrewd (i.e. “rare”) analyst senses same.  Hat-tip Oxbow’s Ted Oakley, the wealth manager wary of a -40% correction.  Where would that be elicited on our ever-daunting 53-year graphic of the S&P?  Here ’tis per the blue line labeled at 4572, (-40% below the record high of 7620)…

…which is basically spot-on the top of the yellow regression channel.  Folks, you canNOT make this stuff up!

So notwithstanding coping with Gold’s downsloping, our hope is your hanging onto Gold when all else is folding!

Cheers!

…m…

17 July 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

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Presently, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Copper and the Spoo are below same; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Spoo (currently 7523) yesterday dropped through its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 7590, albeit by Market Trends, the Spoo (and barely Copper) are in positive linreg, that being negative for the other six BEGOS components. The Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency its ponderous daily EMA (10-test basis) and its daily Moneyflow (24-test basis). Q2 Earnings Season, whilst still quite young, is thus far very good with year-over-year improvement; problematic thereto is the ongoing issue of earnings — even as improved — ultimately being unsupportive of price, especially give the short-term risk-free annualized yield of the T-Bill (3.697%): the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 45.1x, and its risk-full yield a wee 1.118%. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil. And tomorrow brings our 870th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

16 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Gold, Silver and Oil are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again light. Yesterday, both the Euro and Swiss Franc crossed above their Market Magnets and cleared volume-dominant Market Profile resistance (respectively at 1.146 and 1.247); this suggests further near-term upside for the currencies; cautiously however, the Euro is already well-above its BEGOS Market Value by (in real-time) +0.034 points; still, the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are indicative of both currencies’ negative linregs soon rotating to positive. Cac volume for Oil is rolling from August into that for September. And the Econ Baro looks to a substantive batch of incoming metrics, including July’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, June’s Retail and Pending Home Sales, plus May’s Business Inventories.

15 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Both the Euro and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Gold is below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Silver by its Market Profile has been flirting either side of its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight at 58.90, (currently 58.42). Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold: indeed by their 21-day negative linregs, their “Baby Blues” paths of trend consistency are quite similar (see Market Trends). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Top Three (10-test basis) are the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr MACD, and both Gold’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics; too, (24-test basis) we’ve Copper’s 6hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics and Oil’s 2hr MACD. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s NY State Empire Index, plus June’s wholesale piece of the inflation puzzle by the PPI: yesterday’s CPI data was indeed surprisingly deflationary by the headline level (-0.4%), supporting the case for the FOMC to sit come 29 July, contra to our long-running notion that they need raise, with the “Fed-favoured” PCE not arriving until after the meeting (30 July). And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

14 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Oil’s +9.1% net daily gain yesterday ranks third-most year-to-date; (Gold’s -2.9% loss was its 12th-weakest). At present we’ve Gold , Copper and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session is pushing toward moderate. In going ’round the horn for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: the Bond is 2^18 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro 0.030 points “high”, Gold +129 points “low”, Oil -2.26 points “low” (it had been more than -20 points “low” three weeks ago), and the Spoo +377 points “high”. Yesterday, both Gold and Silver crossed beneath their Market Magnets, suggestive of further near-term selling, even as The Gold Update is looking for higher levels, albeit therein noting the war can forestall such direction; Gold yesterday basically reached down to Fair Value (3989) before bouncing today (just as had happened two weeks prior). June’s inflation puzzle begins today with what by consensus is expected to be a benign CPI. Et Vive La France!

13 July 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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With the exception of Oil which is above its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets are all below same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update has a near-term bullish take, however as therein considered, the ramping up again of the war is maintaining selling pressure on the precious metals, as the Dollar (for Oil) gets the bid. The Euro on Friday fell below the key Market Profile support (now resistance) level of 1.146 and passed below its Market Magnet of 1.145, price now trading in the 1.143s: the Euro’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been (on a 10-test basis) the 8hr MACD and (on a 24-test basis) the 30mn MACD. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 incoming metrics scheduled, beginning today (late in the session) with June’s Treasury Budget. And financial entities’ take center stage into this second week of Q2 Earnings Season.

The Gold Update: No. 869 – (11 July 2026) – “Gold Rally Is Nigh?  S&P Sky-High!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 869th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Rally Nigh?  S&P Sky-High!“

We commence with this week-ago sentence:

“Let’s see if near-term Gold tests its mid-panel high at 4404 and that for Silver at 71.65.”

Now a week on, Gold has traded no higher than 4216 before dropping to 4033 in settling yesterday (Friday) at 4129.  Similarly for Silver, she reached up to 63.73, then down to 57.61 for the week’s settle at 60.30

“So both of ’em are far below your near-term price ideas, eh mmb?”

So far that is correct, Squire.  ‘Course as you well know, “near-term” is indicative of up to four if not six weeks, (“medium” being some three to six months, and “broadly” being a year and beyond).  The current key is the near-term impetus remaining in place for the precious metals to further bounce.

For that, we straightaway go to our two-panel graphic of daily bars across the three last months for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  And said impetus for higher levels are both metals’ rising “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency.  To be sure by the diagonal red trendlines, Gold and Silver remain in negative 21-day linear regression:  but the rising blue dots are the leading indication that the downtrends are becoming less so, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means less steep), toward the trend rotating back to positive.  Through 25+ years of testing, ’tis the rule rather than the exception:

Thus as herein depicted a week ago, the “Baby Blues” signals to buy arrived upon the dots confirming having moved above their respective -80% axes.  For those of you scoring at home, these buy points were for Gold per the open on 02 July at 4049, and for Silver a day earlier per her open on 01 July at July 59.25.  Too, as above shown, we’ve placed an arrow for both near-term possibilities as stated.  Yes:  both metals are at present above their buy points.  No:  there’s not a lot of “grunt in the lump” (a little F1 lingo there meaning “power”)

For in the current day, war keeps getting in the way.  And contrary to conventional wisdom — following Gold’s initial war spike back on 28 February when that day’s first trade gapped up +64 points (i.e. “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”) — attempts to further rise have occurred when the war has actually been cooling, only to further fall when actually re-heating.

In this case, the latter is perfectly in tune with the past week, the StateSide Executive Branch declaring termination of yet another USA/IRN “ceasefire”, upon which the metals resumed “Southbound” –[The Allman Brothers Band, ’73].

Again, it all sounds backwards; however through recent years we’ve graphically demonstrated Gold’s tendency to “spike n’ plunge” with respect to geo-political events.  Notably so is the case with this current war, as it affects the world’s economic engine known as Oil, for which the U.S. Dollar is tendered, the Buck thus getting the bid, in turn making Gold skid.

Regardless, as you long-time readers know, Gold plays no currency favourites.  Rather, ’tis ultimately about the weight and purity.  Hat-tip Cecil B. DeMille per recounting from the 13th century B.C. Dathan saying to Rameses II “But for ten talents of fine gold, I’ll give you the wealth of Egypt.”  That equates to some $45M today.  ‘Twas quite the bargain given the country’s GDP is now $430B.

Either way, we segue to Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the red-dotted parabolic Short trend continuing to pound its way down.  But “upon further review” price is significantly below the still-positive, dashed regression trendline, such that if the prior week’s low (3955) can hold, again we sense higher days near-term for Gold.  You tell ’em, Yul:

“But if the Fed raises on the 29th, mmb?”

Indeed, Squire, ’tis just 13 trading days until the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee releases its next Policy Statement.  As you well know — given the rampantly running inflation as we’ve herein depicted ad nauseam — we opine they really ought vote to raise the Bank’s Funds rate from the current 3.50%-3.75% range to 3.75%-4.00%.  But there is banter about that because today’s inflation is more “supply-push” rather than “demand-pull”, ‘twould be better for the FOMC to sit on its hands.  And should they so sit, then to higher prices Gold may swiftly commit.

Also supportive of higher near-term Gold is price vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value.  As we next see here by the day since this time last year, a positive crossover appears ever so near.  Indicated as well in the opening Scoreboard, price is now just -46 points (-1.1%) below this method of valuation:  and because Gold’s expected daily trading range is 109 points, confirmation of an upside cross could come as early as Monday’s settle.  Century-to-date, there’ve been 240 upside crosses with an “average maximum” price increase during a signal’s life of +4.3%:  in that vacuum alone from here, Gold would reach 4300 in as soon as two weeks.  On verra…

As to nearby support and resistance, here are the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  Both metals have come off their recent lows and are fairly profile-centered, the volume-dominant trading apices as labeled:

With respect to the aforementioned Fed, as well as the StateSide economy and the “so-overvalued-that-we’ve-run-out-of-adjectives” S&P 500, let’s turn to the Economic Barometer from a year ago-to-date.  Emphasizing that we merely do the math, we at times have to laugh.  To wit this from the “They’re Just Figuring This Out Now? Dept.”:  a popular FinMedia-favoured market strategist stated this past week that the economy is positively “turning a corner”.  To be honest, it actually “turned the corner” literally one year ago to this date per the leftmost first pixel print of the Baro’s blue line, from which clearly the trend has been mostly upward, albeit (as we’ve been herein saying) slowing a bit from June onward:

And yes, those two embedded Dow Jones Newswires headlines came displayed online one right after the other:  even the FinMedia is hedging!  Let’s see how next week’s incoming load of 20 Econ Baro metrics — plus Q2 financial entities’ earnings — plus the on-again off-again on-again war — affect it all.  As for our recently math-measured case for a -10% correction in the S&P 500, instead, the mighty Index now at 7575 is within a day’s trading range of another record high, which would be above 7616.  (No, we’re not shelving our -10% correction notion).

Which puts us in mind of this classic graphic included in The Gold Update of 10 February 2024, the S&P 500 then -34% lower than ’tis today.  (Yes, really).  Why re-post it now as ’twas then, rather than update it?  Because the theorized “stock market” red line would be well above the chart’s available frame space:

“Very funny, mmb, yeah I remember it…”

Squire, we also remember this from the same missive as regards the price/earnings ratio of the S&P:

  • The day before the Garzarelli Crash of ’87 the P/E was 20.3x;
  • The day before commencement of the DotComBomb of ’00-’02 the P/E was 29.3x; 
  • The day before the start of the FinCrisis of ’07-’09, the P/E was 18.7x.

Today (per the opening Scoreboard) the S&P 500’s P/E is 47.0x.  “Whoopsie!”

Just do the math yourself, of which at times we’ve cited “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) is incapable:

Indeed, Got Gold?”

Cheers!

…m…

10 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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At present, we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper all above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate; of note thereto, the non-BEGOS Yen has already traced 160% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Despite Oil’s ongoing negative linreg, its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) yesterday confirmed having moved above the key -80% axis, indicative of still higher prices near-term, (which fundamentally would be in sync should the war re-heat). The Spoo remains the sole BEGOS component with a positive linreg, albeit that is now weakening. Tomorrow brings the 869th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As previously stated, nothing is due for the Econ Baro. And the first week of Q2 Earnings Season concludes today.

09 July 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same is Oil and within same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The re-heating of the war did not play well into the S&P 500 yesterday, albeit price firmed in the latter part of the session, and would open a bit higher still were stocks to open at this instant; still, we remain sensitive to a -10% correction for the S&P, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency having (in real-time) kinked lower. Too, as noted yesterday, the Bond’s linreg (also in real-time) has provisionally rotated to negative, even as price is higher thus far in this session; therefore, the only BEGOS component still with a positive linreg at the moment is the Spoo. The Econ Baro concludes its light week today, incoming metrics including June’s Existing Home Sales.

08 July 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Notably, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) having been narrowing since March/April, at a time when the war was a more dominant trading influence, some examples of maximums-to-now being Oil above 10 points then vs. 3.19 for today, the Spoo 142 points then vs. 99 for today, Silver over 13 points then vs. 3.45 points today, and Gold 283 points then vs. 112 today. As to the Bond, its linreg (see Market Trends) appears en route to rotating to negative by week’s end: the 30yr yield has moved back above 5% for the first time in three weeks. Today the Econ Baro looks to May’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit. And at 18:00 GMT come the FOMC Minutes from the 16/17 June meeting.

07 July 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Presently, we’ve the Bond, Swiss Franc, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate and the Spoo below their respective Neutral Zones for today; otherwise, the Euro and Oil are within same, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. By Market Trends, only the Bond and Spoo are in positive linreg, the latter having twice flirted in rotating to negative within the past three weeks; that noted, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are curling upward for every BEGOS component, save for the Bond. Looking at our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) the Euro’s 30mn MACD, Silver’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s daily Moneyflow, plus (on a 24-test basis) Copper’s 6hr MACD, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow and Oil’s 2hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Trade Deficit, which by consensus is expected to be far more negative than normal, (’tis said), due to excessive demand for foreign supplies over fears of shortages due to the war, (i.e. higher-than-normal imports).

06 July 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The two-day session continues from Friday for settlement today, with at present the Swiss Franc below its Neutral Zone, whilst above same are Gold, Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility continues as moderate. The Gold Update looks to price’s negative trend as abating, with near-term potential above 4400 for Gold and back up into the 70s for Silver; the weekly Parabolic Short trend for Gold can reasonably flip to Long by month’s end; Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been (on a 10-test basis) the daily Moneyflow and (on a 24-test basis) the 30mn MACD; for Silver, her best per those test bases have been the 12hr Parabolics and 6hr MACD. The Econ Baro begins a fairly light week of incoming data with June’s ISM(Svc) Index. And this is the first week of Q2 Earnings Season, the initial reports arriving following Tuesday’s session.

The Gold Update: No. 868 – (04 July 2026) – “Get Gold Groovin’!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 868th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 July 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Get Gold Groovin’!“

We really like what we’re now seeing for Gold.  After many-a-week of downside drudgery, ‘twould appear the yellow-metal is at least poised to make a turn back up, perhaps substantively so.  More on that in a minute, but first:

StateSide — it being “The Fourth of July” (No. 250) — let’s start with some feuding fireworks from the FinMedia as regards FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh this past Thursday at 2026’s European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal.  Both these headlines appeared simultaneously “above the fold” late Thursday by the cited sources:

  • Bloomy:  “Signs of economic strength alongside easing price pressures … Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation risks have come down.”

  • CNBS:  “Fed Chief Kevin Warsh … says inflation ‘too high'”

Query:

So which is it?

  • Have inflation risks actually come down, indicative of no rate hike on 29 July?
  • Or is inflation actually too high, supportive of a rate hike on 29 July?

Response:

We already know by simple grade-school arithmetic it ought be the latter.  As our May Inflation Summary (herein posted a week ago) showed — and bearing in mind the Federal Reserve’s targeted +2.0% pace — annualized inflation by May’s 12-month average is running at +4.3%, and by annualizing May alone ’tis +5.8%.  What ever happened to +2.0%?  Warsh wants it.  Thus, the second of those queries clearly is the more appropriate … save that today’s mathematically-challenged FinWorld consensus expects the 29 July Open Market Committee voting to “Not raise!”

“But hang on, mmb, ’cause April’s annualized average was +8.0%, so by that, risks are coming down…”

Squire, any way ’tis couched, every major inflation measure is running well beyond the adamantly Fed-targeted +2.0%.  That stated, perhaps +2.0% has become archaic.  Just as has an S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (now 46.2x) ever returning to the portfolio theory standard of 15x become archaic, (until ’tisn’t).

Specific to Gold, its prior-week teasing of Fair Value (now 3984 per the opening Scoreboard) heralded buying.  Before Gold’s gain of this past week, 12 of the previous 18 were net down.  But price then settled Thursday at 4136 (this holiday-shortened week’s official COMEX close) and yesterday (Friday ) furthered itself to as high as 4208 prior to hitting the abbreviated session’s “trading halt” at 4187 toward Monday settlement, (yes the same unusual scheduling as was the case two weeks ago).

So in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends since this time a year ago, we’ve printed the Friday “halt” price rather than Thursday’s settle, (as technically we’re already trading Monday).  Moreover, our sense is Gold — at long last — looks to make an up-run toward, in due course, meeting the cascading red dots of the now 16-week parabolic Short trend.  And just in case you’re scoring at home, the midpoint between price (4187) and parabolic (4765) is 4476, i.e. some +289 points above here.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  269 points.  So barring Gold going straight up, ’tis still feasible that this parabolic Short trend shall meet its end come month-end:

“Still, that’s moving a lot back above Fair Value, mmb…”

A welcome “teed-up” point there, Squire.  Fair Value is the most ponderously-moving valuation for Gold:  ’tis a very “Big Picture” measure that spans decades.  And earlier this year we found Gold rocketing quite excessively far above Fair Value, the record high of 5586 a distance (then above 3868) of +1,718 points, for which we stated week-after-week (albeit as a bit of a lone wolf) that price had “gotten well ahead of itself”.  Thus came the decline across five months to re-meet Fair Value as herein depicted a week ago, price then straightaway turning back up.

Now Gold appears again ready to get its engines movin’ and start groovin’.  To wit, our one-year chart of Gold astride its BEGOS Market Value, which (per the Scoreboard) at now 4270 is nearly +2% (+83 points) higher than present price.  ‘Tis not far to go given Gold’s expected daily trading range is now 125 points.  Here’s the graphic:

Another of our favourite leading indicators are the “Baby Blues” which measure regression trend consistency.  And it being month-end (plus a few trading days), let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets.  Each panel charts the last 21 trading days (one month) with its grey diagonal trend line and the “Blues”, for which we specifically address your attention to both Gold and Silver.  Their respective “Blues” have commenced the welcome curling upward from the -80% level, the rule being to expect still higher prices near-term.  We thus placed the “BUY” signal at both crossings, (Silver having come first in closing out June, followed by Gold into week’s end).  Let’s see if near-term Gold tests its mid-panel high at 4404 and that for Silver at 71.65.  Cautiously however, a rate hike scare may not bring those levels to bear:  thus cash management remains as ever paramount.  On verra…

In staying with the BEGOS Markets, for the once-dominant precious metals, they’ve quite literally dropped from first to worst as we go to our year-to-date standings, Copper being the sole element of our Metals Triumvirate still on a podium position.  ‘Course, with a hat-tip to the “Prices Are Not Unidirectional Dept.” one can’t overly complain:  Gold now -3.3% was +64.1% last year, with Silver now -11.5% having been +142.3%.  And with respect to those aforementioned mid-panel highs, if achieved, both Gold and Silver would again be above water on the year:

Furthering the opportunity for the metals to move higher are their having overcome (in part due to comments from “The Warrior”) what had been substantive overhead volume/price resistance per the 10-day Market Profiles, updated below for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The white closing bars represent Friday’s “halt” prices, (the Profiles themselves as assembled through Thursday):

Now given the leverage of the metals’ equities, year-to-date has been anything but great, their downside fireworks having abetted one’s loss rate.  Yet, this graphic’s bunch are all still up from a full year ago-to-date, with notably Gold the least so at +25%, bettered by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +30%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +33%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +51%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +63%, Newmont (NEM) +65%, and the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +66%.  But across the board from last winter’s highs, the percentage drops have been massive.  Now comes the chance to recover a bit:

As to Gold’s structure by the month since the year 2020, price’s last four consecutive down months (March through June) may just now be getting some relief this early July (the rightmost candle) after gettin’ no “Satisfaction”: 

All of which brings us to the Baro, back from whence we started with FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh in Portugal alluding to signs of economic strength with easing price pressures, albeit admitting inflation is too high.  By the Economic Barometer, the StateSide economy already has been showing strength essentially year-over-year, as we see here, although the curve of late (as anticipated a week go) continues to flatten, ‘twould appear:

So there we are, half the year but a memoir.  Our deMeadville analytics are indicative of higher Gold near-term, supported (just maybe) by a little waffling as to Fed direction.  Again, how might “The Warrior” be drafting it?

In the interim, let’s get groovin’ rather than fazed, and watch precious metals’ prices get raised!

…m…

03 July 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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StateSide physical bourses are closed in recognition of tomorrow’s holiday; however, the BEGOS Markets are again in a two-day session (with a trading halt today at 17:00 GMT) for Monday settlement. And save for the Bond, the seven other BEGOS components presently are up, six being above their respective Neutral Zones; the Bond and Oil are within same, and session volatility already is mostly moderate. Gold has done quite well after bottoming a week ago in and around Fair Value: more on the metals in tomorrow’s 868th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo for the second time in the past three weeks has reversed its negative linreg (see Market Trends) back to positive; ’tis been our sense that the S&P 500 is into a -10% correction down toward the 6800s, yet money keeps flowing back into the Index, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is at this moment an excessively high 46.6x. A Happy, Safe & Sane Fourth to our StateSide mates!

02 July 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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As was the case coming into yesterday for Silver, now Gold’s “Baby Blues”(see Market Trends) are moving up from their -80% axis, indicative of still higher near-term prices. The yellow metal at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, and overall session volatility is light. Gold (now 4085) has moved above its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor (now supporter) of 4042. The Spoo is trading either side of the volume-dominant 7545 level. Our best current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Euro and Gold. And the month’s normally “first-Friday” release of Payrolls data for June is instead scheduled for today given tomorrow’s StateSide holiday; other incoming metrics include May’s Factory Orders and the usual Thursday Initial Jobless Claims. The BEGOS Markets tomorrow do commence a two-trading-day session for Monday settlement, all components having a Friday halt at 17:00 GMT. We shall comment.

01 July 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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Yesterday, Silver’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) curled up above their key -80% axis, suggestive of higher prices: currently 57.90 (albeit down for the day thus far), a rally toward 61.60 wouldn’t be untoward near-term. At present along with Silver, we’ve also Gold, Copper and the Euro below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is back over 50x (50.7x at this instant) with a wee yield of 1.085%, (that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill being 3.732); still, the MoneyFlow into the S&P has been relatively firm, notably so across the past four trading days, (see S&P 500 > MoneyFlow); that noted, we still sense the -10% correction into the 6800s is developing. For the Econ Baro we await June’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Mfg) Index, along with May’s Construction Spending.

30 June 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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Into quarter-end, we’ve at present the Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are Silver and Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Updating our Market Values in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components, there are some remarkable deviations therein: we’ve the Bond +6^30 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.027 points “high”, Gold -281 points “low”, Oil -21.22 points “low” and the Spoo +316 points “high”. Notably at Market Profiles, the Swiss Franc (1.246) is trading just beneath is most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight (1.247); Oil is right on same at 70.00. The Econ Baro wraps the first half of 2026 with June’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

29 June 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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Both the Euro and Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update graphically depicts price having returned to Fair Value, which currently is 3979; ’twas interesting to note the buying surge upon having reached Fair Value, price having since traded (on Friday) to as high as 4112. The Spoo is getting a bid today, at present +0.8% even as by Market Trends the linreg continues to further its negativity; and it remains the case across all of the BEGOS components (except for the Bond) that the linregs are negative. The Bond, at this moment “unch” at 114^04, is trading just above a volume-dominant Market Profile apex of 114^02. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of what may be an unsteady week of 11 incoming metrics with few by “consensus” expected to improve.

The Gold Update: No. 867 – (27 June 2026) – “Gold – !! ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ !!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 867th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 27 June 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold – !! ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ !!“

Yes, the only difference in this week’s title from that of two missives ago is “??” having been replaced with “!!“.

To wit, we begin with a hat-tip to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — which this past Tuesday — released their monthly report of updated weekly “M2” Money Supply data.  Known benevolently as “FRED” (Federal Reserve Economic Data), its latest accounting found “M2” to have increased across a four-week stint from $22.879T to $23.063T (an additional +0.8%).  This in turn upped Gold’s Fair Value (properly adjusted by an approximate tonnage increase during the same period of +0.1%) from 3952 a week ago to now 3979.

SO:  (per our updated give-away title), guess what just happened?

Nary a week has passed year-to-date without our referencing Gold’s Fair Value.  ‘Tis right in the top of each piece’s Gold Scoreboard.  And throughout these many weeks of Gold charting a negative trend, we’ve guardedly pointed out time-and-again that price may well indeed be reverting down to its quintessential mean known as Fair Value.  And so it did Wednesday at precisely 18:03 GMT per this graphic of Gold by the hour for the entire week vis-à-vis Fair Value, including Tuesday’s generous effect on the latter courtesy of “FRED”.  And, (coincidentally or otherwise). in came the buyers:

 

Thus quite obviously, we must cue this one: “Do the Freddie”–[Freddie and the Dreamers, ’65]

“But mmb, you seem all excited because price has been going down!”

Not so much “excited“, dear Squire; rather, “relieved” by Gold’s having reverted to its most important valuation mean.  Moreover, the axiomatic attraction of Gold at Fair Value is its buying opportunity.  For (courtesy of the “Preaching to the Choir Dept.”), you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor Maine to Honolulu and right ’round the world knows that Gold’s Fair Value never materially decreases because neither does the StateSide money supply.

We specify “materially“, for during times of rising interest rates, banks repaying loans through the Fed window in fact momentarily cause a reduction the money supply.  Yet, from as far back as 1980, the largest reduction in “M2” occurred just briefly over two weeks during 2023 from $20.765T to $20.599T  following the FedFunds rate having increased in excess of 5%.  So rarely, if ever, do money supply reductions last very long.  The higher the level of “M2”, the higher Gold’s Fair Value, even as adjusted for tonnage increases.  And Gold inevitably (although it can take years) reverts to — or at least toward — Fair Value, be it higher or lower.

Remember the ridiculously oversold Gold low of 1045 away back on 03 December 2015?  Fair Value that day for “the discarded, yieldless, old relic” was +134% higher at 2442.  This past 29 January, Gold reached 5586, (albeit ’twas then well overvalued as herein documented, Fair Value that day being 3856).

But now we’ve returned to reality, even as century-to-date Gold in settling yesterday (Friday) at 4103 is now +1,399%.  By comparison, the S&P “Casino” 500 including dividend reinvestment is but half that at +677%.  “What’s been in your wallet?”  (As you long-time readers know, we fortunately learned to turn off the FinTV parrots 20 years ago and instead do our own math.  Gold wins.  Overwhelmingly).

The point being:  if you purchase Gold at or below Fair Value,  with patience, it categorically will be worth more in the future. Period.  ‘Tis the world’s easiest long-term trade!  Again as herein penned in our 29 March piece:

  • “…What if — to pay off the StateSide federal debt of now $39T — the Fed merely made an accounting entry of same, and ’twas distributed to all the creditors?  To be sure, the ‘M2’ money supply would leap 2.7x from today’s $22T to some $61T.  Inflation would become hyper-impalpable.  And were it to happen, say, over this weekend, Gold having settled Friday [then] at 4492 would open Monday at 10,606 (by Fair Value precision) … just in case you’re scoring at home.  ‘Got Gold?’…”
To be sure however, we’ve got inflation.  With last Wednesday’s release of May’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures, the writing cannot be more clearly on the wall for FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh and his merry Open Market Committee members.  Our May Inflation Summary now complete, ’tis the same old story:  be it by the 12-month summation or the month’s annualization, inflation is running two-to-nearly-three times the Fed’s desired +2% target.  Fall further behind the curve and stagflate, or “suck it up” and raise the rate.  To mull it all over, there are 22 trading days into 29 July’s FOMC Policy Statement date:

‘Course, conventional wisdom over a higher interest rate doesn’t bode well for Gold’s fate, (although as we on occasion have graphically showed, during three years of rate rises from 2004 through 2006, Gold did just great, being attractively below the Fair Value slate).

Either way, here next are Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date.  With now 15 weeks of the recorded red-dotted Short trend, this past weekly 4103 settle is the lowest yet of the entire run.  Further, we’ve moved the structural support zone down (from what had been 4584-4282) to now 4398-3901:

What do we expect from here?  At least some consolidation rather than much further deterioration.  As depicted earlier, Gold upon tapping Fair Value at 3979 instantly induced buying; too as stated in the opening Gold Scoreboard, price at present is -6.0% below its BEGOS* Market Value of 4363, (itself in decline); *BEGOS = Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500.  As for the distance requisite to flip the trend from Short to Long in the ensuing week, the noted 4855 level is a vast +752 points above the present 4103 price:  Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 275 points, (the daily being 125 points); thus ’tis “gonna be a while”.

“Also, mmb, there was that one down trend that lasted 31 weeks, remember?”

Indeed so, Squire.  Specific to this 21st century, the yellow metal’s longest (no pun intended) weekly parabolic Short trend ran 31 weeks from 02 November 2012 through 31 May 2013 as the aforementioned status of having become “the discarded, yieldless, old relic” relegated Gold to being “boring and worthless”.  Instead, traders (likely watching TV) opted to chase S&P 500 retailers such as Penny’s, Radio Shack and Sears, (all subsequently having gone bankrupt).  Did we already ask “What’s been in your wallet?”  (Turned off the TV yet?)

Turning up this past week was the Economic Barometer, although as herein depicted a week ago, we remain somewhat “top-wary”.  Of next week’s 11 incoming metrics, just two vis-à-vis “consensus” are expected to have improved period-over-period.  That noted, the Baro settled this past week at its highest oscillative reading since 29 April 2024, six of the metrics being better, notably including both Personal Income and Spending for May. However, the “Big Surprise” of the week was the +0.5% revision to finalize Gross Domestic Product for Q1 at +2.1% (annualized):  that ties for the second largest final revision to any quarterly GDP reading since that for Q1 away back in 2015; (for those of you scoring at home, across the past 29 years, the average finalized GDP revision — be it up or down — averages just 0.2%).  So “Bravo!” to the Baro:

Note the Baro’s embedded bit about an -10% S&P 500 correction down into the 6800s, something upon which we’ve been harping through recent weeks.  This last bounce notwithstanding, we still sense the downside is the right side.

“But next is the summer rally, mmb…”

Squire, of the 25 completed Julys so far this century, whilst on balance a very good stock market month, seven of those (28%) have finished net negative.  Given that fact — and considering the last 11 Julys all have been up — a down one we might say is “due”.  Again, “The Warrior” takes to the podium 29 July.

In the interim, here we’ve the “Baby Blues” of 21-day linear regression trend consistency for both Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Across these past three months of daily bars, neither set of “Blues” has been pretty:

Too, by their respective 10-day market Profiles, overhead resistors appear as minefields for both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right).  How about a little Jefferson Starship from back in ’84? “No Way Out”:

And thus the selling of the precious metals has continued, but again, we now seek some degree of consolidation.  The overhead resistors as labeled in the above Profiles may serve at least as cash management guidance, admittedly a lost art in today’s “Nuthin’ but stocks!” casino.  But at least for Gold, its ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ is a most welcome opportunity, especially should price move lower still, (for that later means higher).

Alternatively, there are the parrots:

Last, but hardly least:  R.I.P. Alan “Gold Bug” Greenspan.  His 20-year chairing of the Federal Reserve System fostered a +138% increase in the StateSide “M2” money supply and a +262% rise in the national debt.  But his successors these past 20 years have debased M2 an additional +249% and skyrocketed the debt by another +362%.  Double trouble!  What’s next?  “Got Gold?”

…m…

26 June 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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Presently, Copper, Oil and the Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday’s release of PCE data for May continued to find it above the annualized Fed target of +2%, further supporting a rate hike case for 29 July. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are in real-time at their lowest level since 08 April, lending we sense to continuance of a -10% correction for the S&P 500, although a break below the 09 June low of 7247 would add substance to that notion. Obviously tomorrow’s 867th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall highlight price having returned to Fair Value. Silver’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. And the Econ Baro finishes its week with May’s revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey.

25 June 2026 – 08:53 Central Euro Time

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Gold has returned down to Fair Value, that level now 3979 as it incorporates the just-released “M2” data update from the Fed: Gold both yesterday and thus far today has traded to as low as 3976. At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve just the Bond outside (below) its Neutral Zone, even as price yesterday moved above volume-dominant Market Profile resistance at 112^28 to now 113^31; overall session volatility is again light, in this case expectedly so with “Fed-favoured” PCE data inflation data for May due today. By Market Trends, save for the Bond, the 21-day linregs of the other seven BEGOS components are negative: this is not too surprising given the increase in the Dollar Index through these past several weeks in anticipation of a Fed rate hike as soon as 29 July. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. And amongst other metrics due today for the Econ Baro are the final read for Q1 GDP, plus May’s Durable Orders and Personal Income/Spending.

24 June 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Spoo settled yesterday below its Market Magnet for the first time since 11 June, indicative of still lower levels near-term, which fits with our notion of the S&P 500 itself en route to a -10% correction into the 6800s; too, the Spoo by Market Trends has rotated in real-time to its most negative slant (mild as ’tis) since 09 April; and by Market Values, the Spoo in real-time is +254 points above its smooth valuation line. Silver today has traded to its lowest level (60.75) since 05 December; and Gold’s low (thus far) today at 4067 is +115 points above Fair Value (3952). For the Econ Baro we’ve May’s New Home Sales and Q1’s Current Account Deficit.

23 June 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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The Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo all are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point is mostly moderate. The S&P 500 is showing signs of resuming what well can be a -10% correction down into the 6800s: by the Spoo (adj’d for Fair Value), the S&P at this instant would print -1.1% at the open; too, the Spoo yesterday fell through its most volume-dominate supporter at 7564 (see Market Profiles); and the Spoo’s 21-day linreg has again rotated to negative for the second time in the last two weeks; the S&P’s futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 48.8x; by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Spoo’s best has been (on a both the 10-test and 24 test bases) the 2hr Price Oscillator. Gold at 4131 has reduced to now being +179 points above its Fair Value (3952); and Silver at 62.30 is nearing its recent (11 June) low of 61.60. Again, nothing is on today’s slate for the Econ Baro.

22 June 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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The Friday-to-Monday session continues for the BEGOS Markets, now finding at present the Bond, Swiss Franc, and Spoo below their Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same, and session volatility (inclusive too of Friday) still is moderate. The Gold Update depicts price as having completed a 14th week of parabolic Short trend, (and Silver her 20th); covered as well is BEGOS components’ general market confusion with respect to trends signaling less frequently, and so forth; too therein, the Economic Barometer is suggestive of a top being put in place, as well for the S&P 500. And specific to the Econ Baro, 10 metrics are due for this week, albeit none until Wednesday: the key number shall be Thursday’s “Fed-favoured” PCE for May, thus completing our inflation puzzle for that month.

The Gold Update: No. 866 – (20 June 2026) – “Gold’s Reclusion; Markets’ Confusion”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 866th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 20 June 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Reclusion; Markets’ Confusion“

‘Tis the Northern Hemisphere’s final day of spring:  a season of Gold price reclusion and overall markets’ confusion, further festooned with Fed follies, war worries, and ever-sustained super-inflated S&P 500 insanities.

Since Gold opened the first day of spring (20 March) at 4654, price has lost as much as -13.1% to 4046 (just back on 11 June) toward settling this past holiday-shortened week “officially” on Thursday at 4228 — or if you prefer — per yesterday’s (Friday’s) “trading halt” at 4173 toward settlement come Monday:  that’s right, this is a Saturday with COMEX Gold “halted” rather than “settled”.  When was the last weekend day that happened?  Cue San Francisco’s own Jake Holmes’ “Dazed and Confused”–[’67]

By either “halted” or “settled” price, after having peaked year-to-date at 5586 on 29 January, Gold has been in reclusive withdrawal throughout, today’s 4173 level a net decrease from that All-Time High by -25.3%, price all-in thus far for 2026 being -3.7% (having settled out last year at 4332).  Here ’tis by the day through the current 4173 “halt” toward Monday’s settle.  Note at the graphic’s lower right (per last week’s musical query “? ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ ?”) price seemingly on approach to such 3952 level :

More broadly, from a year ago-to-date we’ve Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends, the latter having completed a 14th red-dotted Short week, such stint now tied for third in duration of the last ten ShortSiders since 02 July 2021:

“But shorting it is a bad idea, right mmb?”

As ever ’tis, Squire.  Smirking Smart Alec can go to his three-martini lunch Short Gold, only to return with event-driven price having severely gapped higher, his trading account frozen with a margin call he’ll never be able to accommodate.  (As a past pet example:  Alec could well have missed the Fed’s 18 March 2009 post-COMEX pit close annoucement to increase “M2” by $1.15T, resulting in Gold’s largest resumption gap up [+5.9%] so far this century).  Adieu Alec.

That cautioned, Gold today by various key trends continues in a technically negative mode, seven of the past ten weeks having settled net down, with price’s potential to tap Fair Value at 3952 as noted in the near-term balance.  That is -211 points below the present level (4173) in an environment spanning an expected weekly trading range of 281 points; (the daily is now 119).  

As to a fundamentally negative mode for Gold, we still sense the Federal Open Market Committee shall on 29 July vote (perhaps not unanimously) to raise the Bank’s Funds rate toward 4%, (the current 3.50%-3.75% target range again maintained per last Wednesday’s significantly restructured/shortened Policy Statement).  ‘Course the late-July vote shall be substantially slanted by next Thursday’s release of “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for May:  ’twill be the final piece of the month’s inflation puzzle for which both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index already have been received and remain radically above the Fed’s desire for an annualized +2.0% pace.

This week’s title incorporating “Markets’ Confusion”, let’s next turn to the Economic Barometer.  Messy as ever are the markets and now even the Baro!  To be sure, equities’ valuation has well-become a portfolio-theory axiom of the past; but so today has become the loss of near-term trend coherence:  staying power is evaporating as confusion is reigning!

As an inside deMeadville example, our renowned “Baby Blues” of 21-day linear regression trend consistency across all eight of the BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500) has been at best wandering rather than signaling.  To wit:  collectively for all eight markets, a “Baby Blues” signal to specifically Buy or Sell occurs on average once every nine trading days; (deep breath) …  there’s been but one across the past 36 trading days!  And ’twas to go Short the S&P 500 futures, the Index for which we still anticipate a -10% correction down into the 6800s, in spite of war relief or otherwise.  Either way per the below Baro, both its blue line and the S&P’s red line thus far through June are running out of puff.  And you know how it goes:  confusion breeds concern, the top then in turn, thus fear begins to burn:

“Maybe it’s all just consolidating, mmb…”

To your point, Squire, we shall in hindsight know.  But as to “The Now”, the ongoing effect of pricey Oil and its availability on both the StateSide economy and therein its pocketbooks (the Strait of Hormuz again being closed as we write), plus more expensive dough soon to pass through the Fed window, and the unsustainable price/earnings ratio of the S&P (48.5x) —oh say it ain’t so — ought elicit a bit of a blow.  Moreover, a -10% S&P correction really wouldn’t be that much, you know.  (Our occasionally-posted truly scary S&P chart this time we’ll forgo).

Instead, lets sally forth with Gold.  And per the caveat that yesterday’s trading is slated for Monday’s settle, here we’ve the two-panel graphic through Thursday of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The “Baby Blues” last triggered a Sell signal back on 22 April (price having settled that day +14% higher than now ’tis).  And for Profile resistance, the labeled 4361 stands starkly higher than today: 

Meanwhile, although Silver’s amplitude doesn’t precisely match that of Gold, the key turn dates are in sync per the daily bars (below left).  But far more congested than that for Gold is Silver’s Profile (below right), price appearing stymied either up or down, even as she just completed her 20th week of parabolic Short trend.  From her record high on 29 January at 121.79, she is now -46.7%.  Do medicate as needed, Sister Silver!

To close, we’ve this from “The Good News Dept.”  Century-to-date, “yield-less” Gold now at 4173 is +1,424% and Silver at 64.91 +1,299%.  By comparison, the (albeit very scant) yielding “Casino 500” today at 7501 is +631% (or +468% ex-dividends).

To be sure, the precious metals remain in near-to-medium term downtrends.  In fact, this past week the children’s writing pool over at the once-mighty Barron’s just figured it out (and we quote):  “[Gold] is dangerously close to bear market territory.”  (One wonders where’ve they’ve been since February).

Regardless, when FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh — dare we say “inevitably” — is called upon to bail out Bessent’s Treasury, look for Gold’s reclusiveness to morph into nothing short (no pun intended) of upside monstrousness.

Still — all that said — are you confused by that within your war chest?  What say you, Bunky?

“And I sold my Gold for these??”  Bummer.

Cheers!

…m…

19 June 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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As previously noted, StateSide physical bourses are closed today, however the BEGOS Markets are trading an abbreviated Friday session for Monday settlement. And at present — save for Oil which is above its Neutral Zone for today — the seven other BEGOS components are below same; session volatility is firmly moderate; extended USA/IRN et alia negotiations have for the moment been halted. Tomorrow brings the 866th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal this past week having moved lower toward Fair Value. By Market Trends, the Spoo’s 21-day linreg — after having rotated from positive to negative (11 June) and then back to positive (15 June) is today (in real-time) virtually flat, indicative that the S&P 500’s correction toward the 6800s may increase its downside pace; the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 48.2x and the yield 1.094%.

18 June 2026 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

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‘Tis the final full trading day of the week for physical StateSide bourses; the BEGOS Markets via GLOBEX have abbreviated sessions tomorrow, but all for Monday settlement. As anticipated, the FOMC voted (indeed unanimously) to maintain the FedFunds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% target range via a radically-revised and shortened Policy Statement; our sense for the moment remains the Fed shall pull the trigger come the 29 July Statement, especially should next week’s reporting of the “Fed-favoured” PCE Index for May continue above target. At present, six of the eight BEGOS Markets are above today’s Neutral Zones, Copper being within and Oil below same; session volatility is moderate. Looking at the 21-day linregs (see Market Trends) for all the BEGOS components, six of the eight are moderately negative, the two exceptions being Copper and the Spoo, both mildly positive. We’ve not ruled out the S&P 500 resuming what can be a -10% correction into the 6800s given a Fed rate increase(s) in the inevitable balance. Incoming metrics to close out the Econ Baro’s week include June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

17 June 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Early into “Fed Day” we’ve both Copper and the Spoo presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is understandably quite light. By Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, in real-time the Bond is 3^28 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro 0.025 points “high”, Gold -139 points “low”, Oil -21.11 points “low”, and the Spoo +383 points “high”. By the latter’s Market Profile, the most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 7630 with like support at 7497; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 47.9x and the yield 1.115%; that for the “risk-free” annualized three-month T-Bill is 3.630%, (better than 3x the “all-to-risk” S&P). The Econ Baro looks to May’s Retail and Pending Home Sales, as well as April’s Business Inventories. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s “no rate change” Policy Statement, albeit we think ’twill pull the trigger six weeks hence on 29 July.

16 June 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The volatility of yesterday has notably quieted into today, Oil being the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone, and overall session volatility is thus light to this point. An interesting observance from yesterday’s +1.7% gain in the S&P 500: as measured by Moneyflow, just two stocks (MU and NVDA) accounted for some +50% of the Index’s gain; otherwise the breadth for the session was 51% up and 49% down, the point being just as two stocks can easily drive the S&P up, they also can drive it well down. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for August at a discount of -1.30 points; by Market Values (in real-time), Oil is -16.68 points below its smooth valuation line; and by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, Oil’s best on a 10-test basis has been the 4hr Price Oscillator, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis been the 2hr MoneyFlow. For the Econ Baro today we’ve May’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.

15 June 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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With “war-deal euphoria” in the air, this morning’s BEGOS Markets directions are predictable: seven of the eight are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, the sole component below same of course being Oil, (and thus too the Dollar Index); volatility for the session is moderate. The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s key negative trends, suggesting (even as price today is currently up to 4326) that a return to Fair Value (3949) is reasonable to expect. The Spoo’s up-gap opening today — combined with an additional 63 points of price premium as volume rolls from the June cac into that for September — is sufficient to stem the linreg trend having rotated to negative last week; today’s positive price push is flipping the Spoo’s daily parabolics from Short back to Long, however that doesn’t nix our notion that the S&P 500 itself shall soon return to corrective mode with the 6800s in mind. The Econ Baro begins a week of 15 incoming metrics with June’s NY Empire State and NAHB Housing Market Indices, plus May’s IndProd/CapUtil.

The Gold Update: No. 865 – (13 June 2026) – “Gold – ? ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ ?”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 865th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 June 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold – ? ♫ Return to Fair Value ♫ ?“

Within Gold’s ongoing negative trend, be it by near-to-medium-term linear regression or by our weekly parabolics et alia, price this past Wednesday at 23:14 GMT posted a year-to-date low of 4046.  At that instant, ’twas a net change in 2026 of -6.6%, even though “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) a week ago had stated that “Gold is having another incredible year.”

We love Gold for its inevitably higher — indeed far higher — levels; however price’s reality of trend, means reversion, and adherence to Fair Value regularly reminds us of present pricing reality.  Pure and simple.  (The S&P 500 faces that rude awakening, but we digress…)

Given such reality for Gold, we comprised this week’s title by hearkening back to the year 1894, (Gold then ’round $21/ounce).  For then from these Mediterranean climes was registered one of the most time-honoured  “immortal pillar” standards in musical history as penned and scored by the Neapolitan brothers Ernesto and Giambattista de Curtis:  “Torna a Surriento”, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is “Return (or as on occasion is ascribed “Come Back”) to Sorrento” .  ‘Tis since been modern-day crooned by many-a-star including Frankie (’51), Dino (’52) and Elvis (’61) … just in case you’re scoring at home.  And in this case for The Gold Update, we’ve reverently revised it to “Return to Fair Value”.

“Because, mmb?”

Because, Squire, upon Gold reaching down to the aforementioned 4046, ’twas within one day’s expected daily trading range of tapping Fair Value at what is now 3949.  True, price did not fully [yet] get there; however ’tis ultimately the “raison d’être” (a little French lingo there) of the “Means Reversion Dept.”

To be sure, Gold from 4046 instead bounced to as high as 4267 before settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 4240.  But as the noted trends remain negative, price soon reaching down to Fair Value appears reasonable, Gold having just posted its lowest weekly close year-to-date and sixth down week of the last eight.

Not helping Gold is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s having its knickers in a bit of a bunch.  “To raise, or not to raise”, that is the question.  Indubitably “yes”, albeit as previously written, we still sense the FOMC shan’t vote to raise the Bank’s Funds rate until their Policy Statement of 29 July, rather than so doing this next Wednesday (17 June), the intrigue of course as overseen by new FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh.

Were the war to wane between those two FOMC dates, (not to mention a “peace deal” possibly being signed at any moment), that could give the Fed some breathing room.  But May’s inflation data already is rolling in, the headline Producer Price Index of +1.1% if annualized now +13.2%:  Ouch!  And ’twill tend to lead June’s Consumer Price Index.  As for the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, its May reading shan’t be released until a week after this next FOMC gathering.  But both the PPI and CPI are running sufficiently hot as to be well beyond (understatement) the Fed’s annualized target of +2.0%.

‘Tis thus a convenient period for Gold to return to Fair Value, above which (per the opening Scoreboard) price is presently +7.4% (+291 points) whilst nonetheless being -6.8% (-308 points) below its BEGOS Market Value, the latter as we see here year-over-year:

‘Course, as we on occasion quip, “Gold plays no currency favourites” even as its Fair Value is geared to debasement of the U.S. Dollar (mildly mitigated by the increase in the supply of Gold itself).  By conventional wisdom, rising interest rates and yields lend to the oxymoronic expression “Dollar strength!” such that the parroting becomes “Well, ya know, gold’s gotta go down…”  except hardly is that axiomatic.  To wit, this reprisal of both the price of Gold firing higher in stride with FedFunds interest rate increases across three years from 2004 through 2006, the midst of said stint finding the Dollar Index up nearly +5% (from January 2004 through November 2005).  Thus, let not the Fed necessarily depress Gold:

Regardless of such happy history, today we’ve “The Now” in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date.  And by trivial coincidence for the superstitious out there, here on this 13th of June we’ve Gold’s parabolic Short trend having posted a 13th rightmost red dot, its price bar with (as noted) the lowest weekly closing pip so far this year.  Too, the rose-coloured 4584-4284 structural support zone has just been violated for the second time:

Next we’ve the negative state of the precious metals by their 21-day linear regression trends for both Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  ‘Tis not been that pretty a picture across their respective three months of daily bars.  But:  are the baby blue dots of trend consistency bottoming on or near the key -80% axes?  As you regular readers know — and clearly can see in the graphic — the “Baby Blues” reversing course from either +80% or -80% leads to further price movement in the new direction.  “Follow the Blues…”

And in spite of both metals’ declines — in turning to the 10-day Market Profiles — prices late in the past week moved up from their basements such as to now allow for some volume-dominant supporters as labeled.  Notably for the yellow metal we see 4212 and 4101, whereas for Silver the 67s appear “safe”, else ’tis “Hello 64s…”

Meanwhile, the Economic Barometer’s mid-April to mid-May raise has since morphed into sideways.  Indeed of the past week’s 10 incoming metrics, five were worse period-over-period, even as The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June sported its best pop since the like month a year ago.  But then there’s still that irksome inflation…

Note in the Baro’s lower-right corner the S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio having settled the week at 47.6x.  Following Wednesday’s -1.6% demise, the mighty (albeit inanely overvalued) Index rebounded +2.3% through Friday.  Despite that however, into week’s end the S&P futures’ 21-day linear regression trend rotated to negative for the first time since 10 April, thus reinforcing our sense that the Index remains in “correction” mode down into the 6800s (as herein laid out a week ago) … or further still should the Fed instead unexpectedly be proactive with a Funds rate raise on Wednesday.  “Got stops?”

Toward wrapping with that, here first is the stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High:  5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  5411 (28 January 2026)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  4988
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  4548
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4337
Trading Resistance:  Market Profile notables:  4289 / 4318 / 4352 / 4490 / 4534 / 4560
Gold Currently:  4240, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  118 points)
Trading Support:  per the Market Profile:  4212 / 4145 / 4101
The 300-Day Moving Average:  4070 and rising
10-Session directional range:  down to 4046 (from 4577) = -531 points or -11.6%
2026’s Low:  4046 (11 May)
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3949
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

And so ’tis toward “Fed Day”, featuring for the first time “The Warrior” as aforementioned.  And whilst the Chairman’s vote is but one of 12 comprising the FOMC, his follow-up presser most certainly shall find him in the “hot seat”, so to speak:

‘Course, we wish Warsh well.

But stay with your Gold for the long spell, as a return to Fair Value would not be farewell!

Cheers!

…m…

 

12 June 2026 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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Gold is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. After trading to the year’s low (4046) yesterday, Gold intra-day recovered nearly +200 points; either way, is Gold returning to Fair Value ’round 3948? More in tomorrow’s 865th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are currently dominated by both Copper and Gold: on a 10-test basis, the Top Three rankings are Copper’s 2hr Parabolics, Gold’s daily Moneyflow and Copper’s 2hr MACD; for the 24-test basis they are Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator and again the 2hr MACD, plus Gold’s 1hr MACD. For the Euro, Swiss Franc and non-BEGOS Yen, cac volume is rolling from June into that for September. And the Econ Baro concludes its week with June’s UofM Sentiment Survey.