Presently we’ve the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility thus far again is moderate. Save for Silver and Copper, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) of late have been narrowing. And by Market Trends, save for the Bond and Oil, the six other BEGOS components are in 21-day linreg uptrends. The Spoo’s moving from its December cac into that for March has added +59 points of premium to price; the March Spoo yesterday meekly moved up through significant Market Profile resistance before being swiftly sold back down; currently 6839, such resistance is 6908 up to 6926; the Spoo’s EDTR is 78 points. There are 11 metrics “scheduled” today for the Econ Baro, some in arrears and some timely; they notably include: November’s Payrolls data (to fold in as able some of that for October which was not reported), IndProd/CapUtil, October’s Retail Sales, plus September’s Housing Starts/Permits and Business Inventories.
Mark
15 December 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
The final full trading week of the year begins, finding at present the Bond and Metals Triumvirate above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update celebrates Silver having surpassed 60, and the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from yet another “short-lived” Short stint (just 3 weeks) to Long; presently 4377, Gold is only -21 points below its record 4398 high; by their Market Profiles, Gold’s most volume-dominant support is 4237 and for Silver (currently 63.43) ’tis 58.85. Oil’s cac volume is moving from January into that for February, and that for the Spoo from December into March. Purportedly “scheduled” this week for the Econ Baro are 26 metrics, some delayed, some current: for today we await December’s NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Housing Index.
The Gold Update: No. 839 – (13 December 2025) – “Gold Beams Back To Long; Silver Screams So Strong!”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 839th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Beams Back To Long; Silver Screams So Strong!“
We are “pleased as punch” –[Hubert H. Humphrey, circa ’60s] to proclaim that Gold just completed yet another “failed” weekly parabolic Short trend of but three weeks, settling higher yesterday (Friday) at an All-Time Weekly Closing High of 4330. We’ll further expound upon that, but first:
Direct from our “‘Don’t Forget the Silver!’ Dept.” — the white metal soaring well-above 60 this past week (as posted Tuesday on “X” via @deMeadvillePro) — we present the following table, remindful of that herein stated ad nauseam throughout this year, (indeed across recent years prior):
Indeed, Sweet Sister Silver, few took notice of you until just recent weeks. And yet, what an incredible year you’ve had! Like Gold, your settle yesterday at 62.09 is an All-Time Weekly Closing High, which per the above table places you +112% year-to-date, let alone your having also en route achieved an All-Time Intraday High to 65.09, at which price you momentarily were +122% in 2025.
Moreover: as herein a week ago graphically portrayed would be inevitable, the Gold/Silver ratio fully reverted to its evolving mean (69.4x century-to-date), penetrating it to 66.7x during Thursday; (it settled the week at 69.7x).
And for the “johnny-come-lately” FinMedia came the usual “having just figured it out” hype. “Oh Silver is going to 100!” they say; “Oh Silver is gonna hit 200!!” they say; “Oh Silver will get to 300!!!” they say. (Yes, we’ve seen all three prognosticative “reports”).
But we “say” let’s instead do the math, ok? For what reasonably is Silver’s Fair Value today?
Again, ’tis a simple calculation as we’ve previously presented. Per the opening Gold Scoreboard, the Fair Value for the yellow metal is presently 3893. Divide that by the mean of the Gold/Silver ratio (69.4x) et voilà the Fair Value of the white metal is now 56.08. Thus currently priced at 62.09, we may “say” that Silver is +11% overvalued. Too, by her “textbook technicals” (our cocktail of Relative Strength, Stochastics and John Bollinger’s Bands), Silver is now 22 consecutive trading days “overbought”; (by comparison, Gold and Copper both are 11 days “overbought”) … all that just in case you’re scoring at home.
But: at least Silver finally has achieved an area of rational market valuation. “Brava Brava, Sista Silva!!”
As for good old precious Gold, on its way to making this fresh All-Time Weekly Closing High, the weekly parabolic Short trend again met a “short-lived” end. Since February 2024, there have been five such parabolic Short trends of 3, 3, 10, 10 & 3 weeks; but those Long have been 17, 16, 17, 16 & 17 weeks. Indeed, the similarity of the Long trends’ durations is striking: 
“Uh oh, it’s magic” –[The Cars, ’84]. And now a new one has begun, (technically come Monday’s open),
However, ’tis actually not magic; rather ’tis math that makes the next graphic’s newly-encircled blue dot appear. And today priced at 4330, Gold in 2025 is +64%, with the All-Time Intraday High from 20 October still in place at 4398. As for the just “failed” Short trend of only three red-dotted weeks, it opened on Monday 24 November at 4069 and was snuffed out yesterday at 4330. (Reminder: “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”). Rather, we’re “pleased as punch” indeed, HHH:
“But ‘HHH’ was more pro-fiat than precious metals, mmb…”
Hardly a Gold bug he was, Squire, and whilst in his second stint as Senator, did not criticize oppositional Nixon’s nixing of the Gold Standard (15 August ’71). However, post-mortem, HHH was presented a Congressional Gold Medal.
Meanwhile, as to the mortality of the Economic Barometer, one must consider the “s“-word: “stagflation“. For an “unintended inference” was right in the opening paragraph from last Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement:
- “Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.”
So clearly pre-vote, the FOMC had reviewed our September Inflation Summary Table from last week’s missive in which nearly every datapoint was “above target”. However, the Committee instead gave deference to the slowing (and by ADP’s data “shrinking”) stance of the job market. Nine of the voters favoured the FedFunds -0.25% rate cut to the now 3.50%-3.75% target range; one even voted for -0.50%.
But a tip of the cap to both Kansas City FedPrez Jeffrey Schmid and Chicago FedPrez Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee by more intelligently voting for no change. For the reason to actually raise (stubborn inflation) + the reason to cut (accretive unemployment) ought = no change. ‘Course combined, they’ll lead to stagflation. ‘Tis a very tricky time for the Fed. And with all due respect to Chairman Powell, given his term ends come May, perhaps ’tis best to let the next Federal Reserve leader worry about it all.
So as we turn to the Econ Baro (with 43 “shutdown” metrics still missing), ’tis taken a bit of a dip:
Speaking of dips, how did that of yesterday in the S&P 500 work out for ya? The 60-minute period from 15:00-16:00 GMT sported the seventh-worst single hour drop by points (-62) since mid-year. One can feel the fragility of the S&P making itself more manifest with each notably negative news event. And as we oft update, the dividend yield for the all-to-risk S&P today (1.146%) is less than one-third that of the annualized three-month U.S. risk-free (in theory) Treasury Bill (3.525%). Further, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P settled the week at 56.0x. Still, the good news is that as this Investing Age of Stoopid sallies forth, neither yield nor earnings have relevance, (nor does your portfolio theory education).
‘Course, just as Gold had relevance for the Egyptians ’round 3000 BC, so does it today. And as we go to the yellow metal’s two-panel graphic featuring the daily bars from three months-ago-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis quite the healthy picture. The baby blue dots of regression trend consistency after a wee stumble are renewing their upside push, whilst the Profile shows heavily-dominant volume support at the labeled 4237 apex:
Too for the white metal, her resemblance to Gold is sufficiently positive, with both the rising “Baby Blues” (below left), and Profile (below right) sporting support at 58.85:
Thus year-to-date for the precious metals ’tis been great, albeit arguably quite extended given both Gold and Silver presently +11% above Fair Value. In fact by rounding out the Metals Triumvirate, Copper also is having a fine year +33%, its sixth-best this century. That, too, has brought some bounce to Sister Silver from her industrial metal aspect, although we can also credit Copper as being money, certainly so from the Bronze Age (2000 BC).
Regardless, per our title, Gold has beamed back to Long with Silver screaming so strong! Which reminds us that upon blending in your Osterizer precious Gold with industrial Copper and pressing “puree”, you of course get Silver! (Metallurgists, please hold your email):
Either way, collect all three today!!!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
12 December 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. Silver yesterday traded up to a record high of 64.72, however by Fair Value, the white metal has become quite overvalued: more on that in tomorrow’s 839th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve currently no notable correlations. The Dollar Index yesterday traded down to its lowest level (98.135) since 24 October. The S&P 500 yesterday reached its highest level (6903) since the all-time high of 6920 on 29 October. Volume for the currencies (Euro, Swiss Franc and the non-BEGOS Yen) is moving from their respective December cacs into those for March. And nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro, albeit some four dozen metrics remain missing per the six-week Oct-Nov StateSide “shutdown”.
11 December 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
The Bond is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. As anticipated, the FOMC voted with dissent to nonetheless cut the FedFunds rate -25 bps to the 3.50%-3.75% target range: the S&P 500 responded in moving to its highest level (6901) since 29 October (wherein the all-time high of 6920 still stands); however, overnight selling has pushed the Spoo (6840) lower towards its BEGOS Market Value (6801), the futs-adj’d “live” P/E at 57.7x. Silver has recorded another record high this morning at 63.25, however has since slipped back into today’s Neutral Zone. And incoming metrics “scheduled” in arrears today for the Econ Baro are both September’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories.
10 December 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Silver yesterday topped 60.00 for the first time and thus far today has traded to as high as 62.14, the Gold/Silver ratio having fully reverted to its century-to-date evolving mean of 69.4x, the ratio currently 68.3x; the white metal is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Copper; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Silver’s best Market Rhythm is currently (if seeking a targeted outcome of 0.52 points) is the 12hr MACD, or on a pure swing basis the 6hr MACD; of note, Gold these last couple of weeks continues not to confirm Silver’s rally. What is “scheduled” for the Econ Baro versus that which is actually released of late is patchy at best: expected for today is November’s Treasury Budget, plus in arrears, Q3’s Employment Cost Index. Then come 19:00, look for the FOMC (not unanimously) to lower the FedFunds rate by -0.25% to the 3.50-3.75% target range.
09 December 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
Only Copper is at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; moreover, it already has traced 106% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); otherwise, BEGOS Market’s volatility is mostly light. By Market Rhythms, Copper’s best is its daily MACD. Too, ’tis unusual to see one market dominating our Top Three Rhythms for pure swing consistency, but on a 10-test basis, ’tis the Euro’s 15mn Parabolics, 1hr EMA, and 6hr MACD. Yesterday’s S&P 500’s MoneyFlow (+0.2%) was firmer than the Index itself (-0.3%); the Spoo’s trading range is narrowing: the EDTR just back on 25 November was 119 points; today ’tis 83 points. “Scheduled” today for the Econ Baro are the Q3 revisions to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the preliminary readings for which were not reported given the “shutdown”.
08 December 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Presently, the Euro is the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to Silver having nearly reached the milestone of 60.00 (59.90 on Friday); too, we calculated a Fair Value for Silver at 56.05. Also therein, September’s inflation summary table is indicative of paces running above the Fed’s desired 2% target range such that they ought not cut the Funds rate come Wednesday, but likely shall so do given a weakening jobs market at least by ADP data; (recall the BLS was shutdown for six weeks). As the Spoo meanders higher this morning, the S&P 500 looks to start its week with a “live” P/E of 58.2x. For the five primary BEGOS components per their Market Values (in real-time): the Bond is -2^10 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro basically in sync nears its line, Gold +168 points above same, Oil in sync, and the Spoo +88 points over its line. Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
The Gold Update: No. 838 – (06 December 2025) – “Gold Sinks Slightly as Silver Skirts Sixty”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 838th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 06 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Sinks Slightly as Silver Skirts Sixty“
So let’s begin with the Gold/Silver ratio, by which these last several years we’ve gone on time-and-again as to the white metal being “the better buy” over the yellow metal. Thus straight away from the “Everything Reverts to the Mean Dept.”, we’ve our century-to-date run of that ratio replete with its evolving mean. And given yesterday’s (Friday’s) respective settles for Gold (4228) and Silver (58.80), their ratio today is down to 71.9x, its lowest level (prior to this past week) since 05 August 2021 and its closest approach to the mean (currently 69.4x) since 12 July 2021 (the mean then 66.3x). Here’s the current ratio per the red arrow:
Indeed “the better buy” has been Sweet Sister Silver, coming yesterday within a hair’s breadth of touching the 60.00 milestone. From 2024’s settle at 29.29 to yesterday’s all-time high of 59.90 saw her up +104.5% year-to-date, whereas Gold at best (4398) has achieved “only” a +66.6% gain, (oh darn).
Yet we query: what is Silver really worth?
Because we have a Fair Value for Gold and a mean for the Gold/Silver ratio, the arithmetic (a lost science in finance today) otherwise can be performed for those of you scoring at home. From the opening Scoreboard we have Gold’s Fair Value (“GFV”) now 3890. The noted Gold/Silver ratio mean (“GSM”) is now 69.4x. Therefore (at the risk of you WestPalmBeachers glazing over down there), we can solve for Silver’s Fair Value (“SFV”):
- GFV ÷ GSM = SFV … ► … 3890 ÷ 69.4 = 56.05
Fairly riveting stuff, what?
“That’s cute, mmb, but what does it really mean?”
Two answers, Squire:
- By anchoring Silver to Gold’s Fair Value with the ratio’s mean, Silver today at 58.80 is overvalued by +4.9% (“ought be” 56.05);
- However, priced purely to today’s actual Gold price (4228) and the ratio’s mean, Silver in fact remains undervalued by -3.5% (“ought be” 60.91).
Thus buying parties of the second persuasion might take the other side of the trade from those of the first persuasion who are selling, in turn driving Silver above the 60.00 milestone. Else solely by these measures — and barring Gold getting a substantive launch from here — Silver’s amazing run (for now) may be done.
Too, like Gold, Silver is money (just ask your Anatolian ancestors), albeit as we oft caution, she is at times substantively influenced by Cousin Copper, to the extent that he can subversively seduce her. ‘Tis always an annoying affair.
All that stated, Gold’s ongoing Short stint nonetheless has (so far) been bullish. Having “officially” commenced back per the open on Monday, 24 November at 4069, Gold has only declined by as much as -33 points (to 4036) and instead has risen by as much as +230 points (to 4299). As we’ve depicted in recent missives, such weekly parabolic Short trends for some two years have been Gold buying opportunities rather than exit signals. And thus to the weekly bars and Parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date we go, featuring the rightmost red-dotted Short “Up” stint:
‘Course, “Short” could kick in to the downside, especially should next Wednesday’s Policy Statement from the Federal Open Market Committee maintain the Funds Rate in the 3.75%-to-4.00% target range.
“Well ya know they’re gonna cut, eh mmb?”
Squire just saw the piece from the ever-venerable Reuters: “Economists double down on December Fed cut despite policymaker divide.” Notably weakening jobs data, (regardless of never-to-be-resolved “shutdown” reporting gaps) favours a rate reduction. However: inflation favours a rate rise given price increases remaining above the Fed’s 2% target range as we next see in September’s at long-last completed puke-green summary:
Thus the “…policymaker divide” — i.e. a few of the FOMC voters may recommend no rate move — can be supported by inflation offsetting jobs creation (or lack thereof). And have we this year on occasion mentioned the “s” word “stagflation“? Oh yes.
Specific to the Economic Barometer which — “with government out of the way” — had been on the move up, this past seek decidedly recorded a move down. 14 metrics — in arrears or otherwise — found their way into the Baro this past week, of which just four improved period-over-period, the big stinker (favouring a Fed cut) being ADP’s Employment reading for November that showed job shrinkage for the fourth month in the last six. Here’s the graphic, still with 49 metrics missing:
And yes, Virginia, in that display the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 truly is now an “off the edge of the bell curve” 58.0x, the mighty Index having settled yesterday at 6870, a mere -50 points below its all-time intraday high of 6920 (29 October). ‘Tis too bad earnings are not sufficient enough to keep pace with price, (let alone an “M2” money supply of $22.4T that is vastly unsupportive of the S&P’s $60.8T market capitalization). Reprise: “When the levee breaks…” –[McCoy/Minnie ’29; Led Zeppelin ’71].
However, hovering of late as if a zeppelin unto itself has been Gold. But as we turn to the two-panel display of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, one senses some descent. Note therein the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency having ticked lower for the past two days. Too, price has slipped below its most volume-dominant Profile support level of 4237. Not that this absolutely turns the tide, but it does remind us that hardly do markets move in a straight line:
Silver’s like picture appears a bit more healthy, albeit her just-recorded all-time high (below left) lacks confirmation from Gold. And she’s presently-priced right ’round that Profile apex of 58.85 (below right), with nearby underlying support as labeled at 58.00 and 57.40:
To wrap, per our title, Gold sank slightly (-0.7% net for the week) as Silver skirted sixty (+3.0% net for the week). And now Sister Silver sits at 58.80, a mere 1.20 points from 60.00, with an expected daily trading range of now 2.24 points. By such yardstick, Silver can grab 60.00 come Monday. But then there’s Wednesday and the aforementioned FOMC Policy Statement on the Funds Rate. A cut almost surely shall see Silver eclipse 60.00. But what if the Committee instead abstains?
To wit: as longtime readers of The Gold Update know, our microphones are just about everywhere, including last week at the Eccles Building in D.C. wherein a small contingent of Silver traders came down on the bus from the COMEX in N.Y. to plead Powell for another rate cut. Squire even arranged for an inconspicuous MINOX camera to capture the moment:
But should such plea fail a cut by which to abide — and prices thus decide to slide — keep Gold and Silver for the ride!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
05 December 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
The EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate are all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is on balance moderate, Copper however having already traced 130% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo has thus far traded up to 6884, its highest level since 13 November; too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) have inched back above their 0% axis, the trend having rotated from negative to positive despite the “textbook overbought” condition of the S&P 500 itself; the Spoo settled last evening an excessive 126 points above its Market Magnet; currently 6882, the Spoo’s most volume-dominant supporter is 6863. Gold is completing its third week of the parabolic Short trend, the past two weeks of which have been up; more on that in tomorrow’s 838th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And scheduled for the Econ Baro are December’s UofM Sentiment Survey, October’s Consumer Credit, plus purportedly in arrears, September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.
04 December 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are all presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point of the session is light-to-moderate. Silver’s daily bars have the appearance of a near-term top being put in place despite yesterday’s all-time high of 59.66, (price now 57.99); Silver’s best swing Market Rhythm if seeking a profit target (0.84 points) is the 6hr Moneyflow, whereas on a pure swing basis ’tis the 4hr Parabolics. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has worked its way up technically to a moderately “textbook overbought” condition; more importantly, the fundamental reality of the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of now 58.7x is essentially off the end of the Bell Curve. Metrics scheduled today for the Econ Baro include October’s Trade Deficit and September’s Factory Orders.
03 December 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time
Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil, whilst below same is Silver; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. Yesterday for the Swiss Franc, price settled above the most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor, as well as pierced above its Market Magnet. Currently topping our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Swiss Franc’s 8hr MACD and for Silver both its 2hr MACD and 4hr Parabolics, plus (on a 24-test basis) the Euro’s 4hr MACD, Silver’s 2hr Parabolics, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr MACD. The Econ Baro looks to November’s ADP Employment data ISM(Svc) Index, and perhaps in “shutdown” arrears September’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil.
02 December 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Silver, after achieving another all-time high yesterday at 59.44 — then year-to-date +103% — is at present below today’s Neutral Zone; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The S&P 500’s mid-November correction of some -350 points and subsequent return back up was enough to unwind any textbook technical overbought/oversold conditions; however, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 56.1x remains our biggest overvaluation (understatement) concern. Specific to the Spoo by Market Trends, its linreg had rotated from positive to negative effective 17 November, but as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are recovering, such trend looks to rotate back to positive in a day or two, barring substantive selling; for consistent swing trading, the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm of late has been the 30mn Price Oscillator. Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
01 December 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Spoo are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate as December commences. The Gold Update celebrates Silver’s remarkable year, through Friday +94.9%, and even more so this morning, having hit another all-time high at 58.61. Silver’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been the 2hr MACD, or for targeted profit (0.84 points/cac) the 6hr Moneyflow; and Silver’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 2.13 points/day. Meanwhile Gold at 4275 is -123 points below its record high level of 4398 (20 October). For the Econ Baro we’ve November’s ISM(Mfg) Index plus (purportedly) September’s Construction Spending, one of 49 “missing” metrics from the StateSide “shutdown”.
The Gold Update: No. 837 – (29 November 2025) – “Gold’s New Short Trend Shoved Aside; Silver’s Rise to All-Time Highs”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 837th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s New Short Trend Shoved Aside; Silver’s Rise to All-Time Highs“
Remember these two lines from last week?
- “…across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!”
- “…across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold…”
Ya gotta luv it: Friday a week back, Gold confirmed the commencement of a new weekly parabolic Short trend. But from this past Monday’s opening print at 4069 (basis December), Gold (after a wee-hours dip to 4036) strapped on the rocket-pack to conclude the week at 4224. And as contract volume en route rolled from December into that for February, add in another +32 points of fresh premium and Gold settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 4256. ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.
To employ a little liberalized latin lingo: for the “glass half-empty” sagaciti, Gold now priced at 4256 resides +9.5% (+368 points) above the opening Scoreboard’s Fair Value of 3888. However, the “glass half-full” cognoscenti see Gold as just -3.2% (-142 points) below its 4398 All-Time High. So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 183 points, (the “daily” per the website being 85 points), next week is within range for Gold to score a further All-Time High.
Which is the perfect segue into Sister Silver. What a week — indeed a year — for the white metal! Yesterday, whilst those of you StateSide were lazing about with stomachs a-full, Silver blew the doors off her previous All-Time High of 54.42 (basis December on 13 November) by skyrocketing to 57.25 (basis March). You WestPalmBeachers down there did not forget the Silver, right? … (in having been herein reminded ad nauseam for some four years to not so do). To be sure, Gold’s premium-inclusive net gain for the past week was +4.8% … yet that for Silver was +15.0%! Her powerful performance in turn dropped the Gold/Silver ratio from 81.8x of just a week ago to now 74.6x, the lowest reading since 29 May 2024. And through the 11 months year-to-date? Fasten your racing harness:
That’s right, folks: Silver through November is +94.9%! Extrapolate her year-to-date pace through the final 22 trading days which remain in 2025, and year-end puts her at 59.74, +104.0%! From Silver’s Friday settle at 57.09, that 59.74 level is a “mere” +2.65 points away. “Doable”, you ask? Absolutely, given Silver’s expected monthly trading range is currently 5.35 points. Moreover, per the aforementioned Gold/Silver ratio now at 74.6x, were Silver priced today to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.4x, she’d already be +7.4% higher from here at 61.32 … just in case you’re scoring at home in anticipation of means reversion.
Either way, as a celebratory addition for Stellar Sister Silver, we’ve paired her weekly bars and parabolic trends with those of Gold from a year ago-to-date. And like those of the yellow metal, the white metal’s red-dotted Short trends on balance are not that damaging, indeed having been BuySide optimistic such as to have brought on her latest blue-dotted parabolic Long trend:
Again it being month-end, let’s next go to the year-over-year performance tracks of Gold and key of its equities brethern. Looking top-down, we’ve the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +124%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +122%, Newmont (NEM) +114%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +113%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +111%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +74%, and least-leveraged Gold itself nonetheless +62%. Equities leverage of two-to-one also is a beautiful thAng. Especially note PAAS during just November:
Life at the top is the current state of the precious metals. Here we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. The respective single white bars are Friday’s settles. Not bad, eh?
“The High Life” indeed. Let’s next go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the last 21 trading days (one month), featuring the respective grey linear regression trendlines and baby blue dots that depict the day-to-date consistency of each trend. The precious metals’ panels are framed in vivid violet, just for emphasis. And how ’bout dat Copper!
“So can we play your tune, mmb?” Spin it, Squire:
“Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”
(Squire has this closet DJ thing going on of late).
Now to peek at the Economic Barometer and accompanying S&P 500 (red line). And you know the old expression that when government is out of the way, (i.e. “gridlock is good”), the economy is less suffocated. However: even though nearly three weeks have passed since the StateSide “shutdown” was resolved, there actually is an increase in missing metrics as bureaus are strained to “catch-up”. In fact, since 01 October, there’ve been 98 scheduled Econ Baro metrics, of which half (49) are now missing; a week ago ’twas 46. All that said, such absence of data has evolved into a rising Baro such that we penned in yesterday’s Prescient Commentary “…the Econ Baro has returned to its highest level since last February, which if detected by the FOMC may see rates held steady rather than cut come the 10 December Policy Statement….”:
Sadly of course per the graphic, earnings remain unsupportive of the S&P’s catastrophically high price level. (But then again, that’s archaic old-school piffle; today nobody cares).
Toward this week’s wrap we’ve the Gold Structure by the month across the past 16 years. Concern over the last month’s “failed” October candle was short-lived, albeit let us be cognizant that we’ve only just begun a weekly parabolic Short trend, (which with bullish persistance, too, shall fail of its own accord).
“Here ya go mmb, Carpenters 1970…” “We’ve only just begun…”
Indeed, “DJ” Squire. Aren’t you instead supposed to be on avalanche control this time of year?
“Yeah mmb, during next month up in the Haute-Tarentaise.”
You might mind the S&P as well, Squire, as when it goes over the cliff, ’tis gonna be scary! Meanwhile, here’s the happy Gold Structure:
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
28 November 2025 – 08:28 Central Euro Time
Subject to the CME data outage from 02:45 GMT (03:45 CET): Silver is teasing another all-time high; by the March cac ‘twould be 55.06, the current price being 54.64; more tomorrow in the 837th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, currently finding both the Bond and Euro below their Neutral Zones whilst above same are Gold and Silver; session volatility (inclusive of yesterday) is now moderate. For the five primary BEGOS components per their Market Values in real-time: the Bond is +0^17 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro essentially on same, Gold is +157 points “high”, Oil -0.66 points “low” and the Spoo +60 points “high”. Albeit there remain many missing metrics due to the recent StateSide “shutdown”, the Econ Baro has returned to its highest level since last February, which if detected by the FOMC may see rates held steady rather than cut come the 10 December Policy Statement.
27 November 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
‘Tis a BEGOS Market’s two-day session for Friday settlement, with trading halts later today and early closures tomorrow. At present, we’ve Silver above its Neutral Zone and having traded as high as 54.43 as it nears its all-time high (basis March) of 55.06; below today’s Neutral Zone is Copper, and overall session volatility thus far is light. Looking at correlations within the five primary BEGOS components, our best currently is positive between Gold and Oil, both having been mildly down since late October, albeit by Market Trends (on a slightly shorter timeframe), Gold’s linreg is positively-sloped whereas that for Oil is negative. The Econ Baro is recording “delayed data” as it becomes available, however overall, many metrics remaining missing, and as the BLS stated last week, some reports simply shan’t ever be assembled; regardless, the tilt of the Baro for most of November has been up. A very Happy Thanksgiving to you StateSiders over there!
26 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Both the Swiss Franc and Silver are presently above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 4hr MACD, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow; for the 24-test basis they are the Euro’s 15mn Parabolics, Silver’s 1hr MACD, and Copper’s daily Parabolics. Although yesterday’s S&P 500 change was +0.9%, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points was -0.5%: mind the MoneyFlow page. Due to the recent StateSide “shutdown”, there is conflict amongst reporting entities as to which Econ Metrics actually shall come through: likely for today we’ll at least receive November’s Chi PMI (an earlier date than usual given tomorrow’s holiday), plus purportedly from back in September both Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
25 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Copper is at present above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold nicely commenced its new weekly parabolic Short trend by — as surmised in The Gold Update — firmly rising yesterday, (albeit that doesn’t preclude there not being lower levels in the offing); too, Gold’s cac volume today is rolling from December into that for February, inclusive of +37 points of fresh premium; rolling as well today is Silver’s cac volume from December into that for March, (and to follow today/tomorrow is same for the Bond). At Market Trends, six of eight linregs are negative, the only two positives being those for Gold and Silver. Scheduled for the Econ Baro are November’s Consumer Confidence, October’s Pending Home Sales, and in playing “catch-up”, September’s PPI and Retail Sales.
24 November 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update cites price’s weekly parabolic trend as having confirmed the anticipated flip from Long-to-Short, but in the context that Short trends within the past two years have had negligible negativity, and thus in hindsight have been buying opportunities. Q3 Earnings Season is complete with 71% of S&P 500 reporting constituents improving their quarterly year-over-year bottom lines, which favourably compares with typical improvement of 66%; still, the overall level of earnings is far too low to maintain the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P of 51.8x at this instant. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from December into that for March. And whilst no fresh metrics are scheduled for the Econ Baro, there may be some “catch-up” data on IndProd/CapUtil for September, which of course we’ll duly incorporate.
The Gold Update: No. 836 – (22 November 2025) – “Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 836th & 16th Anniversary Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short“
Welcome to the 16th Anniversary Edition of The Gold Update. What began 835 Saturdays ago on 21 November 2009 as a single paragraph and chart for one JGS has since evolved (in our proud opinion) to the finest weekly writing in the known universe as regards the current stance of the price of Gold. And our humble thanks to those of you who have expressed words to that effect over these many years. On with the show.
As anticipated in recent missives, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend — after an amazing 17-week run on the Long side — yesterday (Friday) confirmed the awaited flip to Short. For those of you scoring at home, the flip provisionally arrived this past Tuesday at 04:20 GMT per our post on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold having penetrated below the protective parabolic price of 4004. Gold then moved on to settle its fourth down week in the past five at 4063, which by the above Scoreboard is nonetheless still +169 points (+4.3%) over Fair Value (3894). So some additional pullback wouldn’t be untoward.
Yet across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!
“Because in each one of those, price hasn’t really gone down a lot, right mmb?”
Conclusively correct, Squire. But before providing that proof, let’s first below go to Gold by the week from a year ago-to-date, wherein encircled above the rightmost bar we now have the first red dot heralding the commencement of this new Short trend; too, we’ve drawn a structural support line at 3534:
Regardless: if this fresh Short trend is anything similar to the past four Short trends during the last two years, Gold may hardly fall at all! Let’s go inside the numbers.
The following table depicts each weekly parabolic trend (alternating Long…Short…Long…et cetera) for said two years. Note the “Duration” column: the five Long trends have each lasted 16-17 weeks (how consistent is that!) whereas the four Short trends have paled in length. Moreover: look at the fabulous maximum gains of the Longs vs. comparatively “zilch” (technical term) for the Shorts. However, should such ShortSide adversity continue, does Gold reach down to that 3534 support level? By these mathematical parameters, no:
As for the most recent (now complete) Long trend, that maximum gain of $107k (were you impossibly prescient to have exited at the high) is not a typo. To trade one Gold contract requires initial margin of $17k to control 100 ounces. Per the opening price (as shown) of 3321 up to the All-Time High at 4398 = +1,077 points x $100/point = $107k for a +629% leveraged account gain in just 60 trading days (from 28 July to 20 October). Unleveraged, even just a single one-ounce Gold coin gained +32%. As for the herd’s “Nuthin’ but Nvidia!” (NVDA) across that same stint? +6.4%. Which one did you have?
All that said, Gold can of course have a far more negative Short trend than has been the case these last two years. Not that you wish to be reminded, but from 05 November 2012 to 03 June 2013 Gold went on a 31-week parabolic Short trend within which price plummeted -21%; a repeat of that from here (4063) would place Gold back in the low 3200s. But as firmly flies Gold’s fundamental flag, let’s even see if support at 3534 actually gets tested. For across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold rather than price plunges.
And an initial price for which to watch is a retest of 3901, which is the intra-day low of 28 October, following Gold having made that recent All-Time High at 4398 back on 20 October.
Such negative notions notwithstanding, you know the rule: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.” And thus contrary to Gold’s new parabolic Short trend, we next view the following two-panel graphic of the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Clearly therein, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency are rising … but such rise may be short-lived (pun intended) unless Monday is a substantive up day. As for the Profile, price at present is churning about in the 4089-4061 volume-dominant congestion zone:
Further, with the same graphical layout for Silver, her “Baby Blues” (below left) already have just kinked a notch lower (albeit barely so per the rightmost blue dot). And by the white metal’s Profile (below right), 50.75 is the most volume-dominant overhead resistor, price having settled the week at 49.66. But as Gold has come off from the prior week, more so has Silver: just back on 12 November, the Gold/Silver ratio was 78.9x, its lowest reading in better than a year. But through these last seven trading days wherein Gold has dropped -3.3%, Silver has fallen -6.7%, the ratio thus having increased to now 81.8x. Poor ol’ Sister Silver! ‘Course year-to-date, she’s up “only” +69.5%!
Turning to the economy and stock market, as stated on the next graphic we’ve still 46 missing Economic Barometer metrics — some of which according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics shan’t ever be calculated — due to the recent StateSide government “shutdown”. Still, last Thursday came a “data dump” for seven weeks of back-dated Initial Jobless Claims. And all told for last week, 21 metrics hit the Baro of which 13 improved period-over-period: thus we’ve the up lurch in its blue line, even as the S&P 500 came further unglued. At least we can look forward to the Santa Claus Rally, right?
“Uh, those don’t always happen, mmb…”
Squire (as usual) has the facts at his fingertips: for the S&P’s 24 Decembers century-to-date, eight (33%) have been net negative. Sorry, Santa, should it not ensue. Meanwhile, here’s the Baro to view:
As for Gold, we’ll watch how the new Short trend unfolds. If such history from the past two years holds, for buyers ’tis a time to be bold! Nonetheless, in any event, hang on to your Gold!
Oh Squire, you shouldn’t have… Rather, go fetch the rain-chilled Taittinger!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
21 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
We’ve presently the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best correlation currently is negative between the Bond and the Spoo. The latter thus far today has traded to its lowest level (6539) since 08 September, the selling rather anticipated given the ongoing — indeed leading — plunge of the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). Yesterday saw a “data dump” from the Dept. of Labor for some seven Initial Jobless Claim reports as the Econ Baro continues to bring in metrics missing from the recent StateSide government “shutdown”; scheduled for today is November’s revised UofM Sentiment Survey. Tomorrow brings the 836th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And we’ve reached the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, for which the S&P 500 year-over-year has been well above its average improvement, but remains well below the foundation needed to support the hyper-high levels of the S&P.
20 November 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as -1^08 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as just -15 points “low”, Oil as only -0.37 points “low” and the Spoo as a scant -11 points low; however with respect to the latter, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 54.3x and the yield 1.171% vs. 3.772% annualized for the 3-month U.S. T-Bill. As to the Econ Baro, the BLS has announced there shan’t be a Payrolls report for October; however, that for September is to be released today, as is November’s Philly Fed Index, plus October’s Existing Home sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
19 November 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
At present, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at the Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing constancy, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 30mn Price Oscillator and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Price Oscillator; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, the Bond’s 15mn MACD, and the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Moneyflow. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are accelerating their drop, as also is the case for both Copper and Oil. The Econ Baro is sensitive to missing metrics finally coming to the fore, albeit rather sporadically; scheduled for today are October’s Housing Starts/Permits and August’s overdue Trade Deficit.
18 November 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time
Gold — as we’ve been anticipating — has provisionally flipped its 17-week parabolic Long trend to Short; confirmation arrives at Friday’s settle, (barring price first making a record high above 4398); currently price is 3997 and presently below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are Silver and the Spoo; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. As noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linreg (see Market Trends) in real-time has rotated from positive to negative, suggestive of still lower S&P 500 levels; the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency through yesterday is the 1hr Moneyflow; mind too the separately-calculated MoneyFlow for the Index itself on our S&P page. Due today for the Econ Baro are November’s NAHB Housing Index, along with October’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, (for which there is as yet no September data).
17 November 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Silver and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update points to Friday’s precious metals’ price slides as potentially leading to piercing Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend as this week unfolds: the low thus far today is 4051 and the parabolic flip price for the week is 4004; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 103 points. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are (in real-time) down to their 0% axis as the trend rotates from positive toward negative, barring price getting a firm rally in these next few days. Due for the Econ Baro is the NY State Empire Index for November; 54 metrics remain missing from the government “shutdown” and — even having ended — its spillover effect of ongoing unreported data. And this is the final week of Q3 Earnings Season.
The Gold Update: No. 835 – (15 November 2025) – “Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 835th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise“
Recall from last week’s piece our notion of the prices for both Gold and Silver “basing” rather then succumbing to indications of further downside?
“Right, mmb, ’cause your ‘Baby Blues’ of trend consistency were still dropping, but prices were holding…”
Spot-on as ever you are, Squire. And following such “basing”, this past week saw the precious metals soar to the sky, notably so Silver which on Thursday recorded another All-Time High at 54.42 … only to then fall on Friday from the blue. To be sure, come that record high, Silver was up as much as +12.8% in just four trading days, then settling yesterday (Friday) at 50.40 with still a welcome +4.5% gain for the week. Gold also come Thursday saw its price fly, reaching as high as 4250 (+6.0% then week-to-date) only to also suffer demise with a comparatively weaker weekly gain of +1.9% in closing at 4084.
Specific to Gold, its recent weekly losing streak was held to three. However, this past up week has left little room for the parabolic Long trend to continue, (barring price shooting higher come Monday). Gold’s expected daily trading range is now 103 points and the weekly 178 points. But as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, from the current 4084 price to the “flip-to-Short” level at 4004 is just -80 points from here, and thus is well within reach of a single day’s trading session. Too, during Friday’s demise, Gold high-to-low fell -183 points (-4.3%), i.e. its present trading momentum is negative:
As well, this is a fine opportunity to share from the website the Market Magnets for Gold below on the left with Silver on the right. Derived from the Market Profiles, a Market Magnet is essentially the volume-weighted consensus price across the past fortnight. We refer to it as a “Magnet” as ’tis difficult for price to stray too far away before snapping back to the Magnet, (which itself, of course, doesn’t stay static). Both panels show the last three months-to-date, price being the thin line and the Magnet — as labeled at right — the thick line. The oscillator at the foot of each panel is the difference of price less Magnet. And when price penetrates the Magnet, ’tis the near-term direction in which to trade, (although as we regularly caution: “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”) That nonetheless stated, both metals now look poised to pierce their respective Magnets to the downside:
In staying with the three months-to-date theme, here next we’ve the daily bars and (as Squire referenced) “Baby Blues”, the dots which depict the consistency of trend. Below for both Gold at left and Silver at right we’ve encircled the aforementioned “basing” period prior to last week’s rallies. And for both metals, such price climbs have been sufficient to reverse the “Baby Blues” from their respective declines. That however noted, the rightmost bar in each case shows the bulk of Friday’s gains having evaporated:
In turn, such price pullback is well-reflected in the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). The single white bars (present prices) in each panel are currently at the midpoints of these last two weeks, with a bevy of labeled support and resistance levels all ’round:
Still, what need be rounded up is all the missing data for the Economic Barometer. Through the concluded (for now) StateSide government “shutdown” — plus these initial days beyond — 54 of 75 incoming Econ Baro metrics have gone unreported, if even calculated. (Wednesday’s White House expectedly-biased presser included: “…The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period…”)
Politics aside, the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting (09-10 December) shall have a dearth of data with which not to deal, in turn affecting in the Policy Statement their otherwise boilerplate phrase “…the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook…” ‘Course, a good three weeks of data comes due between now and then … to the extent it can be pieced together as the government reporting bureaus come back on line.
As for the 21 metrics privately reported during the “shutdown”, period-over-period saw nine improve and 12 worsen; (we’ll do our part to try to fax that fact over to the FOMC). Either way at the end of it all, here’s the Baro on balance still standing tall, but sans so many metrics that it could well fall:
And per the above graphic, is the S&P 500 (“live” price/earnings ratio 54.4x) wisely waving the white flag? Our preference is instead the Gold flag as we go to the Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 4392 (20 October 2025)
2025’s High: 4392 (20 October 2025)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 4374 (20 October 2025)
10-Session directional range: up to 4248 (from 3938) = +310 points or +7.9%
Trading Resistance: Profile notables 4087 / 4119 / 4137 / 4206 / 4238
Gold Currently: 4084, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 103 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4079
Trading Support: Profile notables 4052 / 4015 / 3994 / 3979 / 3961 / 3948
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 4004
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3890
The 300-Day Moving Average: 3168 and rising
2025’s Low: 2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
Let’s wind it up here with a brief revisit of Nvidia about which we mused in last 12 July’s missive. At today’s writing, NVDA again is at the top of the S&P pops, sporting a spritely market capitalization of $4.6T, which would make it the fourth-largest nation by nominal Gross Domestic Product in the world! However, (for those of you scoring at home), that compares to its present balance sheet net worth of “only” $100B.
Now: imagine you are buying in the States a new house, the median value for which in August was $413,500. Query: would you instead pay $19,108,377 for that house? Obviously no. Yet if NVDA today was that house, that’s how much you’d pay for it, (were you a wealthy, albeit daft, WestPalmBeacher down there).
“But, mmb, the price of NVDA is discounting its future earnings.”
Squire, a word to the wise is sufficient: the future is now.
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
14 November 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; cac volume for Oil is rolling from December into that for January; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, with Oil exceptionally having already traced 128% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday, both the Bond and Spoo respectively fell below their most volume-dominant Market Profile support levels and crossed beneath their Market Magnets. Too yesterday, Silver traded to an all-time high at 54.42 and the Gold/Silver ratio looks to finish the week below 80x for the first weekly settle under that level since 12 July ’24: more on all that in tomorrow’s 835th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update. Due but not necessarily arriving today for the Econ Baro are October’s PPI, Retail sales, and September’s Business Inventories.
13 November 2025 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Similar to this past Monday, Gold — and especially Silver — recorded very firm trading sessions yesterday: so robust was Silver (+4.2%) that the Gold/Silver ratio was driven down to 78.9x, the lowest reading in better than a year (since 22 Oct ’24). However in a 180° turnabout, Oil — after having seen both its Market Value and Market Magnet measures turn bullish on Tuesday — whirled ‘right back down below both indicators, the -4.2% drop ranking sixth-worst year-to-date. Presently, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. StateSide, the government “shutdown” has concluded with 45 metrics missing for the Econ Baro, to the extent they eventually are updated; due as well for today are October’s CPI, Treasury Budget and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims, should bureaus be up and running in time to report these items.
12 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
Copper and the Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is thus far is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow and Silver’s 6hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis the leaders are Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, The Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow and Oil’s 4hr Parabolics. Oil yesterday confirmed moves above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and Market Magnet; by Market Profiles, Oil’s notable volume-dominant supports are 60.60 and 60.10, however there is resistance at 61.00. ‘Tis again a day without scheduled metrics due for the Econ Baro, (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown” which may be finally resolved fairly quickly).
11 November 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s firm up moves for the precious metals from their basing processes were sufficient to now find their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having turned higher in real-time, albeit the actual linreg trends remain negative; nonetheless, on a points basis, yesterday was Gold’s second-best net gain (+116) for the year-to-date and for Silver (+2.18) third-best; by percentage, the day ranked sixth-best for Gold (+2.9%), and again third-best for Silver (+4.5%); by their Market Profiles, Gold (currently 4136) finds its nearest notable volume-dominant support at 4087, whilst for Silver (currently 50.50) ’tis 49.90. Yesterday’s +1.5% gain for the S&P 500 was further supported by a 2.1% gain in its MoneyFlow as regressed into S&P points; however, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is a treacherous 57.7x. Again, nothing for the Econ Baro is scheduled for today.
10 November 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Indications are the StateSide government “shutdown” may be resolved this week; that noted, no regularly scheduled metrics are due for the Econ Baro until Thursday; and since the start of the “shutdown” 45 metrics remain missing. For the BEGOS Markets at this instant, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo, and session volatility is moderate. Even as by Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver, The Gold Update points to the precious metals as having been basing, and both are well up today. There are two weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, and although year-over-year improvement on balance is running at an above-average pace with a median bottom-line increase of +9.4%, earnings essentially need to double to get the P/E of the S&P 500 ( the “live” reading 56.3x) down to a far more realistic valuation.
The Gold Update: No. 834 – (08 November 2025) – “Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 834th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week“
Four weeks ago for the first time ever, Gold settled above 4000, indeed at 4036 on Friday, 10 October. A week hence, Gold bettered that level with a Friday settle at 4268 on 17 October. And whilst Gold’s three successive Friday settles all have still topped the 4000 milestone, each in turn has been lower: from then 4126 to 4013 and now to yesterday’s weekly close a tad lower still to 4008.
“So yeah, three down weeks in a row, mmb, but aren’t you being a bit picky?”
Squire, partially picky perhaps, yet with this pointed reprise from last week’s piece: “…the last time Gold posted … three consecutive down weeks was … one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November)…” Now a year later in 2025, Gold has again recorded three consecutive down weeks ending 24 October through 07 November. How’s that for seasonality(!) And thus from price’s All-Time High recorded just 15 trading days ago on 20 October at 4398, the yellow metal presently is off -8.9% … which is “noise” considering year-to-date Gold is up a net +51.9%, (and Silver the precious metals’ leader +64.6%).
Regardless, over these many years of The Gold Update (our 16th anniversary edition slated for 22 November), we’ve on occasion quoted — irrespective of price — the late great Richard Russell’s maxim that “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold“. Such statement until very recently essentially has been a truism ever since Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71, (even in having to weather price’s -45.7% decline from September 2011 into December 2015). For throughout — until that landmark week ending just this past 03 October — the market price of Gold has mathematically been subordinate to its Fair Value. But today, per the opening Scoreboard, Gold at 4008 is +120 points above its Fair Value of 3888.
Thus, from the “Feet on the Ground Dept.” — with the highest respect to Mr. Russell’s maxim — we are reminded of that stated by The Gold Update’s initial charter reader (JGS, whom we paraphrase): “The day to sell Gold is the day that everybody else wants it.”
And so it came to pass into this past summer’s end that Gold by the public eye metamorphosed from its discarded relic status into that of a meme stock, which in a mere 22 trading days (from 19 September into 20 October) soared +18.2% to the 4398 All-Time High, again in accordance with everyone having instantaneously become a Gold expert. And to extrapolate that compounding daily rate (+0.815%) for one year “would” exponentially bring Gold by next 19 September to (hold your breath) 28,262 … just in case you’re scoring at home.
So with everybody suddenly jumping onto the Gold Wagon, did you accommodate them by, (as our good StateSide mate THR would state) “taking a few chippies off the table”? Just don’t get carried away.
To be sure, across Gold’s recent three-week pullback of -8.9%, the past two weeks (albeit downers) are appearing more as a basing period, indeed with daily volatility slowing. Per the website, here we’ve the “expected daily trading range” (EDTR) for both Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. For you WestPalmBeachers down there, this neither is price nor its actual daily range; rather from one year ago-to- date ’tis the trading range we “guesstimate” for each ensuing trading day. And clearly by the rightmost declines, recent excitability over the precious metals is now coming off the boil:
Moreover, Gold’s trading range for the entirety of this past week was “only” 107 points (from 4043 down to 3936): ’twas the narrowest weekly stint of the past six. Thus as volatility is slowing, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date. And therein note with 16 weeks of the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend in place, the remaining wiggle room from here (4008) to the “flip-to-Short” price for this next week at 3936 is but 72 points, i.e. within one session’s EDTR. So might we see a fourth consecutive down week for Gold? Heaven forbid! What might the mass of newly-minted Gold experts be thinking?
Irrespective of how “long” continues this parabolic Long trend, Gold’s “other” blue dots — indeed those “Baby Blues” that depict the consistency of trend — are in full plummet as next displayed at lower left for price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date. And you regular readers well know the tune: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” –[mmb, circa 2000 A.D.] But as leerily leading are the Blues, price again is basing more than further falling, having already come well off the 4398 All-Time High. As well by the 10-day Market Profile at lower right, Gold looks nicely nested in that “fat” volume-dominant trading zone spanning as braced from 4022 down to 3990:
Similarly so, Sister Silver is cheering her apparent basing, even as her “Baby Blues”, too, further their fall (below left). Unlike Gold however, the white metal’s Profile (below right) is indicative of price having not been as suppressed across the past fortnight. To wit, the Gold/Silver ratio two weeks ago was 85.2x, whereas ’tis now 83.1x. Regardless, given the century-to-date average ratio being 69.4x, Silver remains the more attractive metal: priced to that average ratio today, Silver rather than at 48.23 would be nearly +20% higher at 57.76. So hang on to sweet Sister Silver!
Let’s next go to what little we know of the Econ Baro. As therein noted, from October-to-date we’ve 45 missing metrics; so who knows the real stance of the dark blue Economic Barometer line, the StateSide government “shutdown” still in full stride:
As for Q3 Earnings Season (with still two weeks to run), year-over-year results have increased at an above-average pace: 71% of the 428 reporting S&P 500 constituents have improved their respective bottom lines from Q3 a year ago; typically ’tis only around 66%. That’s the Good News.
Now for the Bad News: the median earnings per share gain (encompassing 420 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is +9.4%; such improvement instead ought be ’round +100% just to get the price/earnings ratio back down to some reasonable valuation and the yield (1.172%) more competitive with three-month U.S. annualized dough (3.757%). For as shown in the above graphic, such p/e is presently 55.9x, (the formula provided for proof). “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) begs to differ with 29.3x; but as we’ve stated before, if actually fed that formula, “AI” replies ’tis incapable of obtaining the answer.
Thus be it the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash or the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash, we — as do many others with whom we communicate — await the inevitable S&P “Dash for Cash!” crash. After all, given the S&P’s current market capitalization of $59.5T supported by a liquid money supply (“M2” basis) of “only” $22.4T, ’twill be a heckova train wreck … perhaps further derailed by Gold?
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
07 November 2025 – 08:53 Central Euro Time
At present we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. Gold, currently 4013, is net “unch” for this week: ’tis the line in the sand to avoid a third straight down week; more of ‘course, in tomorrow’s 834th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At Market Trends, save for Copper and Oil, the “Baby Blues of linreg consistency are falling for the sixth other BEGOS components. For all eight markets, their best pure swing Market Rhythms are as follows: Bond 30mn Moneyflow, Euro and Swiss Franc their 4hr MACDs, Gold 4hr Price Oscillator, Silver 6hr Price Oscillator, Copper 2hr Parabolics, Oil 2hr Price Oscillator, and Spoo 15mn MACD. The StateSide government “shutdown” shall preclude today’s release of October Payrolls data; but awaiting the Econ Baro is the UofM Sentiment Survey for October, plus late in the session September’s Consumer Credit.
06 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
The Euro plus the three element of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. By Market Trends, linregs are positive for Copper, Oil and the Spoo, and negative for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver. That noted, yesterday Gold crossed back above its Market Value and Silver back above its Market Magnet; the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency currently is the 4hr Price Oscillator, whilst for the white metal ’tis the 15mn Moneyflow. And the Bond yesterday moved below its most volume-dominant Market Profile support (117^14, price now 116^17). As the StateSide “shutdown” continues, the following metrics due today for the Econ Baro shall go missing: Q3’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, September’s Wholesale Inventories, and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.
05 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Whilst higher today, the precious metals’ “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to cascade (see Market Trends). Notably by Market Values, Gold finally has fully reverted to its smooth valuation line after having been above it for 53 consecutive trading days (since 20 August); by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant zone of overhead resistance spans from 3990-to-4039; similarly for Silver ’tis from 47.75-to-48.60. The Dollar Index at this instant is precisely 100.000 after basically having been below that level for the past three months. And the Econ Baro does receive two non-government metrics today: October’s ADP Employment and the ISM(Svc) Index, (the StateSide shutdown continuing following a 14th-failed Senate vote last evening).
04 November 2025 – 08:48 Central Euro Time
The Bond is currently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s 21-day linreg has rotated to negative; with 3975 thus far today’s low, again, should 3901 be penetrated by week’s end, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall flip to Short. The Spoo today has closed its up gap from the opening back on 27 October; too, the daily MACD is approaching a negative crossover, and the daily Moneyflow study has dropped below the key mid-point level of 50. Today’s Econ Baro metrics that shan’t be received (give the StateSide “shutdown”) are September’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
03 November 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time
‘Tis a fairly quiet start to November for the BEGOS Markets; presently the Bond is below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility is light. The Gold Update confirms our expectations for price having had a second consecutive down week; however year-to-date, there’ve yet to be three negative weeks in-a-row; Gold’s “expect weekly trading range” (172 points) brings the weekly parabolic Long trend into jeopardy should 3901 (last week’s low) be tested as ’tis “within range”. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, in real-time we’ve the Bond as not quite a full point “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.025 points “low”, Gold +89 points “high”, Oil -1.04 points “low” and the Spoo +126 points “high”. Given the ongoing StateSide “shutdown”, for the second consecutive month there shan’t be the otherwise due Construction Spending for September, making for a 35th missing Econ Baro metric; however October’s ISM(Mfg) shall be reported.
The Gold Update: No. 833 – (01 November 2025) – “Gold Furthers Fall as Called”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 833rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Furthers Fall as Called“
Through the 44 trading weeks thus far for 2025, Gold therein has recorded a net weekly gain 31 times (70%). Further, for the year’s 13 net losing weeks, never have there been three in-a-row. However, for just the fifth time this year, Gold has again recorded back-to-back down weeks. Shall that extend to three? Let’s see.
Gold settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4013. Albeit a down week, ’twas a fourth consecutive weekly close above the 4000 milestone level. Yet en route, price furthered its fall to the first of three “fib-based” retracement levels herein called a week ago. Indeed last Tuesday at 04:24 GMT, Gold traded down to the first level of 3985, continuing that day lower still to 3901, a “scant” 44 points above the second noted level of 3857, (the third being 3729). We say “scant” given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is now 128 points; at the turn of this century, it took nearly three years to initially move higher by that many points; now such range is “expected” in just one day.
“But for those two other levels, mmb, are you saying they can’t be reached ’cause price won’t go down for a third straight week?”
Dear Squire, price certainly can go on multi-week bearish runs. Recall during 2016 for the seven weeks ending 11 November through 23 December, Gold recorded net losses for all of them, preceded by a similar seven-week down stint during summer of 2015. Moreover, the last time Gold posted only three consecutive down weeks was almost exactly one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November) … just in case you’re scoring at home. And (pun intended), Gold weakly finished this past week — yes, able to regain 4000 — but ’twas the lowest weekly settle of the past four.
In the midst of it all, Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend — again by Tuesday’s 3901 low — was within a day’s range of flipping to Short. And now for the ensuing week, 3901 becomes that flip-to-Short level as stated in our graphic of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date:
“Unless Gold moves higher, right mmb?”
Squire, Gold’s near-term technicals — having been so thoroughly upside strong of late — are now showing signs they’re running out of puff. To be sure, an intraweek drop from here at 4013 down to 3901 would be a skid of -112 points; however, Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 172 points such that a third consecutive down week could well flip the trend to Short. But again, year-to-date, Gold has yet to record three successive down weeks, (not that ’tis a trend upon which we’d depend…)
As well, Gold by its BEGOS Market Value (derived by Gold’s movement relative to all five primary BEGOS components, namely the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil & S&P 500) is now only +93 points above its smooth valuation line. Recall just two weeks ago Gold being better than +600 points above same and our cautioning that price inevitably reverts to the mean, (in this case the Market Value line which presently is 3920). Notice the exquisite timing of means reversion being coincident with everyone recently having become a Gold expert. Liquid markets are a beautiful thAng:
Truly beautiful, too, is the year’s ongoing leadership of our Metals Triumvirate in the BEGOS Market Standings, still pristinely led by Sweet Sister Silver. With ten months now in the books, here’s how it all looks:
As to their travel from a month ago-to-date, here are those markets’ respective daily bars, grey regression trendlines, and beloved “Baby Blues”, the dots indicative of each trendline’s consistency. Of import (if given little FinMedia notice): the Dollar Index has risen five of the past seven weeks. Thus we’ve the negative trendlines for both the Euro and Swiss Franc … and now for Sister Silver, too. Note that Gold’s trendline has all but rotated to negative, the “Baby Blues” in full cascade. Time to get a grip … else further dip!
Amplifying the precious metals having pulled back from the highs of two weeks ago are the associated equities. Gold’s All-Time Closing High back on 20 October at 4374 has since fallen -8.3% to the current 4013 level. However, every equity product in the following graphic has exceeded that pace of pullback, ranging from -9.0% to -14.7%. As we on occasion quip: “Live by the leverage, die by the leverage”. Clearly, the amplitude of the chart’s Gold line is mild vis-à-vis those of the equities. Regardless, year-over-over the overall performances remain remarkable. Therein, Franco-Nevada (FNV) is +36%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +41%, Gold itself +43%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +59%, Newmont (NEM) +69%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +71%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +81%:
Turning to the 10-day Market Profiles, both precious metals seemingly are positioned in and around their most volume-dominate prices of the past two weeks. For the yellow metal on the left, the denoted 4123-4022 area appears pivotable, whilst for the white metal on the right ’tis her 48.60-47.75 zone:
‘Course it being month-end, we’ve next the Gold Structure graphic of price’s monthly bars from the year 2010-to-date. The lower areas of the chart still display the many stratified price areas through which we arduously struggled with Gold until finally, just two years ago, “The Infamous Triple Top” was broken, Gold having then been off to the races ever since. The third of those three tops was 2085 on 04 May 2023, from which to the present All-Time High of 4398 is a gain of +111% in just 2 1/2 years. As doubtless (barring a deflationary depression) Gold never again shall trade sub-2000, we’re “considering” future versions of this graphic to not extend back past the year 2020. Still, those older areas are an amazing reminder of what was endured and then how far we’ve come. As for “The Now”, the rightmost red-braced “failure candle” (October) is exemplary of what happens when — again — suddenly everyone’s a Gold expert, (which for you WestPalmBeachers suggests “The top is in!” … but more broadly, we doubt it):
One can only wonder if StateSide “the top is in” for the economy as there is little data upon which to go. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted (not unanimously) to lower its Bank’s Funds Rate -25bp to the 3.75%-4.00% target range, even as the Policy Statement opened with “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.” Available, indeed: given the “shutdown”, only 15 of the 49 metrics due for the Economic Barometer during October arrived. And of those 15, just six improved period-over-period. There’s your “moderate pace”, baby. Too, there’s the S&P 500: is “the top in” there? Note our table in the Econ Baro of those constituents priced (given almost no earnings) beyond all sensibility. Better queried: “Have we crashed yet??” Here’s the Baro:
To wrap this week, regular readers of The Gold Update know we (as just done) “rib” those “WestPalmBeachers down there”, the claim-to-fame of south Florida’s brightest bulbs being “Hanging Chad” back in 2000 during “W vs. Algore”.
Technically, Florida is one of 50 states comprising the federal union of the U.S. Fundamentally however, Florida is more of a foreign country unto itself. Its pencil-thin panhandle barely clings to the southernmost coastline of Alabama and Georgia. The distance from Miami to Havana, Cuba is just 70% the distance to Jacksonville. And ’tis written the State’s average elevation is 100 feet (30m). Florida is FLAT, man. (In ’64, we visited an auntie there, and given the lack of depth perception, once was enough).
But to the point (hat-tip A.C.): assuming ratification by the state’s legislature, eight months from this day on 01 July 2026, Florida shall officially acknowledge both Gold and Silver as legal tender in coin form, and without sales tax on purchases thereof. To quote Grace Slick with The Jefferson Airplane at Woodstock back in ’69: “It’s the new dawn!”
So for Florida, with Gold and Silver, let fiat be gone!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
31 October 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
All eight BEGOS Markets are currently within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is light. It remains the case amongst the five primary BEGOS components that’ve we’ve no notable correlations therein. Tomorrow’s 833rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite price’s return back down into the 3000s (as anticipated), albeit ’tis presently 4031 and By Market Values still +110 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; similarly, the Spoo is +156 points above same. Silver had a firm day yesterday in climbing back up through 47.75-48.15 resistance zone (see Market Profiles). We await October’s Chi PMI for the Econ Baro; however, today’s missing reports due to the StateSide “shutdown” are Q3’s Employment Cost Index plus September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index.
30 October 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Presently, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is firmly moderate. Unsurprisingly, the FOMC with little data upon which to decide nonetheless reduced the FedFunds interest rate 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. Despite yesterday’s “unch” session, the S&P 500 is (yet again) extremely “textbook overbought”, buoyed almost solely by NVDA and to an extent AAPL; breadth yesterday was poor (25%/75%); the Spoo by Market Values shows (in real-time) as +180 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today, given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, the Bureau of Economic Analysis shan’t be furnishing the first peek at Q3 GDP, nor the Bureau of Labor Statistics the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims. Q3 Earnings Season has reached the midway mark: for the S&P 500, 72% have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago, an above-average pace; of course, the overall level of S&P earnings remains far too low to maintain the current Index levels, especially with a risk-full yield of just 1.126% vs. a risk-less 3.730% on a 3mo. T-Bill.
29 October 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Both EuroCurrencies are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as is Oil, whilst above same are the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold yesterday traded down to as low as 3901, which as posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro) was down through the first of three potential “fib” levels, followed then by 3857 and 3729; both precious metals today, however, are higher, even as their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to drop. Our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are currently (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 30mn Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Gold’s 30mn Parabolics, plus (on a 24-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 60mn Parabolics. For the Econ Baro we await September’s Pending Home Sales. And late in the session comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for a -0.25% FedFunds interest rate cut.
28 October 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil, are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. As anticipated in The Gold Update, Gold and Silver continue to correct, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) furthering their falls in real-time; indeed we may see Silver’s trend having rotated from positive to negative by tomorrow or Thursday; mind as well the widened Market Ranges for both precious metals (Gold’s EDTR for today is 129 points whilst that for Silver is 2.42 points). The P/E of the S&P 500 has further skyrocketed to in excess of 60x due in large part to INTC’s “ttm” earnings now but $0.01: the P/E of INTC is now 2,822.5x (see S&P 500, Valuations and Rankings). Despite the StateSide “shutdown”, the Econ Baro will take in some actually data today: October’s Consumer Confidence.
27 October 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
(Note: Europe is now on winter hours). The week gets underway presently finding the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update sees further near-term downside for price as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) accelerate lower; indeed Gold today has moved below a shelf of support (see Market Profiles) spanning from 4132-4123, (price now 4083); and in real-time Gold is +250 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant (+0.9%), its P/E would be 50.9x. The week’s highlight comes Wednesday via the Policy Statement from the FOMC. And due today (but unlikely to be reported given the “shutdown”) are Durable Orders for September.
The Gold Update: No. 832 – (25 October 2025) – “Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 832nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!“
Gold — in having the prior week been “meme’d” — this past week got “bean’d”. And anticipatedly so, for as you by now well know, Gold had gotten — and indeed still is — “ahead of itself”, a phrase familiar to those readers of The Gold Update who’ve been with us when first coined it some 14 years ago.
On the heels of last week’s piece “Gold Goes Meme!” wherein price had traded to as high as 4392, this past week saw a scant six points of further upside on Monday to the now latest All-Time High of 4398 before getting “bean’d” and falling -377 points (-8.6%) to Wednesday’s low of 4021. As noted Tuesday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold’s intra-day fall of a full -300 points was far and away its worst same-day points-loss in history. Silver also that day suffered her historically seventh-worst intra-day points loss of -4.50.
It happens. Certainly so when suddenly — to again reprise — “…everyone’s become a Gold expert…” (Recall the urban legend of JFK’s pop “Jumpin’ Joe” knowing ’twas time to sell back in ’29 when the shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips).
“But you’re no Kennedy, mmb…”
Squire can’t resist the infamous, historical dig. But Gold in recent weeks reached that silly state of investor euphoria: “Well, the Big Banks are loadin’ up, ya know…” Gold last crossed above our BEGOS Markets’ smooth valuation line back on 20 August (price then 3392). Since just that date, the herd has taken Gold up to last Monday’s record high of 4398. ‘Twas an increase for Gold of +1,006 points (+29.7%) in just 43 trading days! (Imagine having been Long 100 Gold contracts [margin requirement $1,650,000] for a trading profit of $10,060,000 [+610% account gain] in only two months; pretty good juju, that!)
Nonetheless, as herein depicted three weeks ago, Gold en route has well surpassed its Fair Value (now 3875 per the opening Scoreboard). Thus justifiably “ahead of itself” indeed is our Gold, settling out this most recent week yesterday (Friday) at 4127, which is +252 points above that Fair Value. Moreover, Gold is now +314 points above its smooth valuation line as we below see, wherein Gold’s movements are valued relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500). Note therein Dow Jones Newswires’ Tuesday assessment of the (by then) -6.9% correction being a “crash”:
“So, mmb, where does price go from here?”
Likely lower still for both precious metals, Squire, at least within the vacuum of our linear regression calculus. A function of the night work is our internal table of BEGOS Markets’ “Baby Blues” signals which alert us to potential change in near-term trend as consistency thereto begins to break apart. The table at left is per Wednesday’s close confirming a “SELL” for Silver. This is because her “Baby Blues” in the one-month chart beneath the table fell below the key +80% axis per the red encircled dot. Then come Friday at right so, too, was confirmed a “SELL” for Gold. To be sure, both metals’ trends remain positive by their respective grey diagonal lines, but less steeply so. And as the trading herd later begins to figure that out, we “ought” see still lower prices:
“But how about some actual numbers, mmb…”
Squire, let’s initially acknowledge per the above pair of charts that price for the present has ceased falling; rather, ’tis for the moment consolidating per the rightmost three bars for both metals. But assuming the “Baby Blues” continue to descend, the recent price declines likely are not at an end. Let’s first consider the aforeshown chart of Gold’s BEGOS Market Value. Should Gold (4127) work lower as value (3813) works higher, a back-of-the-napkin jot finds the mid-point at 3970. Such breaching below the 4000 milestone could then encourage buying. As for Silver (48.41) — whilst broadly she remains very attractively priced relative to Gold — the Gold/Silver ratio average across the past 21 trading days is 83.3x. Thus priced to that average, Gold at 3970 would place Silver at 47.66.
So hardly any substantive downside damage there. However, should the correction distance be further down, we came up with a few retracement levels, courtesy of our old mate Leonardo “Fibonacci” Bonacci basis Gold’s last consolidation area which spanned from April through August. We’ve thus three paired Gold/Silver downside ideas: 3985/47.84 … 3857/46.30 … 3729/44.77 … just in case you’re scoring at home.
Rather, if Gold instead merely zooms higher from here, that’s fine. Just be wary (again) “Gold has gotten ahead of itself”, each ounce willingly bought being an ounce willingly sold.
For 2025, 43 trading weeks are now complete. Therein, Gold has compiled 31 up weeks (+2.2% average gain) and 12 down weeks (-1.9% average loss). Indeed, 11 of the past 13 weeks have been up. Year-to-date, Gold is now +56.4%, still bettered by Silver +65.3%. And as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the aforementioned “consolidation area” appears relatively contained mid-chart by the red-dotted parabolic Short trend, during which stint price didn’t materially drop a wit. As for the ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend (now 14 weeks in duration), note the “flip-to-Short” (bad idea) level for the ensuing week is 3840, some -287 points south of here (4127). So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 165 points, a second consecutive down week ought not thwart the Long trend:
Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. Not surprisingly, price is well-down in both cases, Gold notably just a few points above its most volume-dominant supporter of 4123. As for Sister Silver, she looks safe down to her denoted 47.90 level … but should Gold fold, Sister Silver too shall further her downside mode:
Meanwhile, the Economic Barometer remains unfulfilled: 39 metrics are to have been received since the start of the StateSide government “shutdown” effective 01 October. But with 26 thus far missing, just 13 have been received — including a surprise on Friday: September’s Consumer Price Index was issued; (more on that in the wrap). Otherwise, amongst all 13 of the incoming metrics, just five improved period-over-period. Lookin’ a bit rickety, our Baro, as we ever-anticipate for stocks “Stormy Weather” –[Arlen/Koehler, ’33]. And yes, Virginia, if you actually perform the math (a science apparently unemployed by the modern-day money manager), the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 settled yesterday at 50.5x, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means portfolio theory is a thing of the past):
So as teased, we wrap with yesterday’s surprise release of the CPI, (both the headline and core readings a bit hot for the Fed’s liking). But our immediate response was: “Did the ‘shutdown’ just end?” Quickly we checked … but … no. Yet, after all, the CPI like so many Econ Baro metrics is released by a federal government agency, in this case the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which did not first report the scheduled Producer Price Index.
But then we found out what happened with respect to the CPI: in order for the Social Security Administration (which is not fully “shutdown”) to keep benefit check payouts in pace with inflation, “They gotta have that CPI, baby!” We thus give a tip of the cap to whoever he/she/it was that snuck into the otherwise shuttered BLS — perhaps heroically in the wee hours on personal time — to gather, crunch, arrange and release the data. ‘Tis most appreciated and deserving of a year-end bonus.
As to a potentially negative near-term course for Gold, appreciate what ’tis, indeed add to your load!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
24 October 2025 – 08:24 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Copper and the Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s “Baby Blues”(see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have provisionally dropped below their key +80% axis such as (upon day’s-end confirmation) to then expect lower prices near-term; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Gold in real-time shows as +289 points “high”; more on the yellow metal in tomorrow’s 832nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed crossing above their -80% axis: given price in real-time is about -2 points below its own valuation line, near-term we’d expect Oil to visit the mid-63s from the current mid-61s. Due (but likely not arriving) today for the Econ Baro are September’s CPI (<– update, yes CPI reported) and New Home Sales; however, the non-governmental UofM Sentiment Survey for October ought make the trip.
23 October 2025 – 08:49 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are dropping, but have yet to move below their key +80% (as did Silver’s so confirm yesterday); thus far today, both precious metals are stabilizing to this point; however by Market Values, Gold in real-time is +335 points above its smooth valuation line; further of note today for Gold, it has been trading either side of its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight which by the Market Profile is 4123. Given the scattered nature of late amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we find no reasonable correlation — neither positive nor negative — therein. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Existing Home Sales; but with yet another Senate vote such that the StateSide government remains closed, this shall be the fourth consecutive week of missing Initial Jobless Claims.
22 October 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Oil are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, albeit Gold already has traced 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As stated yesterday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold recorded its largest intraday loss by points in history: -300 from 4393 to 4093; (on a percentage basis, the -6.8% intraday drop ranked 33rd worst). Regardless, by Market Values, Gold in real-time (4159) is still +380 points above its smooth valuation line (3779). As for Silver, her intraday drop of -8.7% was enough to pull her “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency in real-time today below the key +80% level; we thus expect still-lower prices for Sister Silver near-term, and thus likely for Gold as well. Again ’tis a nothing-due day for the Econ Baro (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown”). And Q3 Earnings Season is going well for the S&P 500 with 80% of reported constituents beating their like earnings of Q3 a year ago; problematic of course is that earnings continue to run too low to support the level of the S&P, its futs-adj’d “live” P/E 49.5x at the moment.
21 October 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
None of the BEGOS Markets are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Euro and the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility is mostly moderate. Gold as a “meme stock” has moved excessively above its key valuation levels: currently 4340, Fair Value is 3873 and BEGOS Market Value is 3765; a reversion to the latter’s mean at this point would be -576 points. Too by Market Values, Oil is currently -6.40 points below its smooth valuation line: currently 57.07, Oil is just above its most volume-dominant supporter of 57.00, with near-by resistance spanning from 57.90 to 58.40. The Gold/Silver ratio in real-time is 86.0x as Silver today (-1.9%) is selling off at a faster pace than is Gold (-0.8%). Nothing is scheduled today nor tomorrow for the Econ Baro; the StateSide Senate voted last evening such that the “shutdown” continues.
20 October 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
Copper is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light. The Gold Update likens the yellow metal to trading as a “meme” stock; Gold had similar runs in both 2007/2007 and again in 2011, both of which led to corrections respectively of -34% and -45%; not that we’ll again witness same, however price is better than +300 points above its Fair Value and nearly +500 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As to the S&P 500, its “risk-full” yield is but 1.170% vs. 3.832% annualized for the “risk-less” 3mo T-Bill; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 49.1x at this moment. Given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, incoming data for the Econ Baro may continue to be scant, however due today is the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators for September. <– “Delayed” due to lack of data. And Q3 Earnings Season picks up its pace as the week unfolds.