The final trading day of October finds at present the Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zone, but below same are the Spoo and again all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets being moderate-to-robust. Gold has slipped sub-4000 and Silver is testing her 50 handle: more tomorrow in the 885th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday moved beneath its BEGOS Market Value for the first time since 01 October, as too slipped price below its Market Market: both moves are indicative of still lower levels near-term, price as well breaking below volume-dominant Market Profile support of 7754, (currently 7686). The Econ Baro wraps its week with October’s Chi PMI and Q3’s Employment Cost Index.
Mark
29 October 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The FOMC “per consensus” sat on its hands, albeit credit is due members Cook and Hammock having voted to raise the Bank’s funds rate given inflation’s elevated state as further shall be made evident later today with the arrival of the “Fed-favoured” PCE data for September. At present, we’ve the Bond above its Neutral Zone, whilst below same are the Euro and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. A couple of Market Rhythms’ notes: per Oil’s open yesterday (100.17) we’ve the daily Parabolics targeting a Short to 98.37 on this run; also, the same study for Copper per today’s open (6.6800) is targeting a new Long on this run to 6.7320. In addition to the PCE, other Econ Baro metrics for today include September’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the first peek at GDP for Q3.
28 October 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is yet again pushing toward moderate. Copper yesterday moved above both its Market Magnet (6.5580) and volume-dominant Market Profile resistance (6.5550); currently 6.6615, Copper’s best Market Rhythm (if seeking a per swing goal of 0.052 points) is the daily Parabolics, else by pure swing ’tis the 1hr Parabolics. There are no incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro, however come 18:00 the FOMC is “expected” to maintain its 3.75%-4.00% FedFunds target range, whereas by our inflation tracking, a +25bp raise clearly would instead be in order; ‘course as stated in The Gold Update, the vote for a “double raise” of +50bp would be feasible at the 09 December meeting.
27 October 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
At present, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; overall session volatility is again pushing toward moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to ascend: as of the current edition of The Gold Update, ’twas 74.3x: now ’tis 76.0x; relative to Gold, we see Silver as as very attractively valued here (and indeed its Fair Value per The Gold Update is 59.11 vs. the current level of 52.88); Silver’s best Market Rhythm if seeking a specific target (in this case 1.44 points per swing) is the daily MACD, whereas on a pure swing basis ’tis the 6hr Moneyflow. The Swiss Franc yesterday slipped below its Market Magnet, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. And the Econ Baro awaits October’s Consumer Confidence, plus September’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
26 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update now looks to “The Floor” of 4000 as becoming a bit of a battle zone: the underlying line-in-the-sand is 3900; price presently is 4022. Looking at our Top Three Market Rhythms, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s daily Price Oscillator, the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Oil’s 1hr Parabolics; too (on a 24-test basis) they are both Oil’s 15mn Price Oscillator and 6hr Parabolics, plus Gold’s daily Moneyflow. Through three weeks of Q3 Earnings Season, of the 105 S&P 500 constituents having thus far reported, 82% have beaten their bottom lines of the like quarter a year ago: excluding coming out of COVID, such year-over-year improvement is the best since the first three calendar quarters of 2018, albeit there remain four more weeks this time ’round. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, with 11 incoming metrics through the balance of the week.
The Gold Update: No. 884 – (24 October 2026) – “Gold Hits ‘The Floor’, Buyers Come to the Fore, but at a Loss to Score”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 884th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 24 October 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Hits ‘The Floor’, Buyers Come to the Fore, but at a Loss to Score“
We start with a wee housekeeping note. As depicted in the above Scoreboard, Fair Value for Gold is now 4092, rather than our anticipated level for this week of 4014. This is due to the latest aggregate of Gold tonnage (hat-tip The World Gold Council) being a hair’s breadth shy of our extrapolated amount. And therefore — as those of you scoring at home comprehensively understand — the less there is of something, the more ’tis worth. Hence, the higher Fair Value. ‘Course, the 78-point difference between 4014 and our adjustment to now 4092 is about a single day’s expected trading range. Thus, one might consider said revision as immaterial; however our passionate penchant for precision is perennially paramount.
“Ok, mmb, but what happened with all your recent points about price ‘basing’ instead of going down?”
Hardly was this past week pretty, Squire. With respect to Gold having just hit “The Floor” of 4000, it so did yesterday (Friday) smack on the dot of 02:00 GMT, (we surmise via one of those pre-canned “on the hour” sell programs). Yet straightaway, buyers came to the fore in swiftly hitting the offers straight up to 4028 in a mere 12 minutes, and then further still to 4050. But these value-seeking bulls were unable to hold the score through the balance of the day, price succumbing to as low as 3989 en route to settling the otherwise down week (-4.2%) at 4010. Net-net, ’twas Gold’s third-weakest week of the 42 year-to-date, the weekly red-dotted parabolic Short trend wending its way lower as we here see in our year-over-year view:
Notwithstanding breaking a bit below the “The Floor”, as you see, Gold’s been there before, as recently as this past July. Yet, as we’ve herein eloquently waxed over these many years: “Change is an Illusion whereas Price is the Truth.” And Gold priced today at 4010 is quite attractive: per the opening Scoreboard, broadly Fair Value is 4092, and from the near-term perspective, our BEGOS Market Value is 4263. The latter is depicted here in our year ago-to-date view:
“But mmb, ya got the war and another Fed hike, huh?”
Squire, we understand that Mike Waltz (U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.) just suggested the USA/IRN conflict may still have a year to go. Too, by our reckoning, next Wednesday (28 October) the Federal Open Market Committee must certainly vote to again raise their Bank’s funds rate. Inflation by its various measures is running at least double the Fed’s targeted 2% pace, as further shall be reflected come next Thursday’s (post-FOMC) release of the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for September.
“So you really think the Fed’ll definitely raise, mmb?”
‘Tis a good query, Squire. The “consensus” (for what ’tis worth) is that the FOMC this time ’round sits on its hands. However, we instead say “certainly to raise” merely because rather than engage in the modern-day motif of parroting, we actually abide by the math, which has the words “must raise” written all over it. If we’re wrong, no worries: the FOMC can always vote for a “double raise” at its 09 December meeting, just in time for the holidays. Indeed, there’ve been like occurrences under FedChairs Powell, Greenspan and Volcker. And how’s that inflating price of Oil workin’ out for ya? On this side of The Pond, our last petrol fill-up ran the U.S. equivalent of $10.33/gallon.
As to weathering it all by the Economic Barometer, there’s been net resiliency of late, even as little data arrived during this past week. Therein however, the housing biz is having a bit of a skid, September’s Pending Home Sales having slipped the most year-to-date. ‘Course, since the depths of COVID, StateSide mortgage rates nearly have tripled. Has too your paycheck? Not to worry, for marked-to-market, you’re still a millionaire, the S&P 500 today 3.5x its COVID low, sporting a price/earnings ratio (ex-CRWD) of 46.9x and spritely yield of 1.090%. Here’s the whole picture, boxed in as it appears:
As to the nature of how Gold is trading these days, let’s look at this two-panel graphic (sourced from the website’s Gold page). At left is Gold’s path from three months ago-to-date astride its Market Magnet, (now at 4142 vs. price at 4010). Penetration of the Magnet suggests near-term continuance of price in the same direction, but only to an extreme whereby price is then attracted back to the Magnet as we see occurred twice during September from points’ deviations of respectively -211 and -186, (the current being -132 as labeled). At right from a year ago-to-date is Gold’s EDTR, i.e. “expected daily trading range”. (Again we remind you WestPalmBeachers down there, this is not price direction). And as labeled, our EDTR for Monday is 70 points, such narrowness not seen in nearly a year. This suggests the market is more balanced than outright plunging, in turn giving “The Floor” a fighting chance to hold:
Then too we’ve our two-panel display of Gold’s daily bars on the left across the past three months with their baby blue dots of regression trend consistency, the Long signal in crossing above the -80% axis from 09 October, (price then 4220) exceptionally failing, albeit “The Floor” of 4000 may be maintained such that price can move upward. But as is clearly obvious in the 10-day Market Profile on the right, there is substantive volume-dominant resistance right up through the 4100s. Yet, if Gold can run that “gap” from here up to at least 4108, it could be convincing enough that “The Floor” shall be considered as having held such as to bring in more buying. Quel drame, mes amis:
But then there’s poor ol’ Sister Silver, whom relative to Gold is finding her straits more dire by the day. From a Gold/Silver ratio of 65.0x just a month back on 22 September, today’s 74.3x is the highest reading since 28 November a year ago, from which en route toward year-end found Silver gain — in barely one month — as much as +44.8% by 29 December. For when she goes, she really goes! ‘Course, that works bidirectionally, the like graphic to Gold looking anything but bold: her “Baby Blues” (below left) have yet to eclipse above the key -80% axis, whilst by her Profile (below right) today at a lowly 53.96, the overhead 57s appear as stark resistance … at least for the present. But again, she can move quite quickly, her EDTR going into next week now 2.05 points per day. All of which — relative to Gold — Sweet Sister Silver is every so attractive down here:
But hardly attractive is our closing graphic, as we’ve this from the “Strong Stomach Required Dept.”
What essentially by quantity and shape weighs the same as Gold?
“Tungsten, mmb.”
Well, that’s correct Squire as certainly many of our great and good readers know; (the comparative density of Gold being 19.25 g/cm³ and for Tungsten 19.30 g/cm³).
However, their respective pricing is wildly different: one ounce of Gold today is $4,010 whereas one ounce of Tungsten (averaged) is $5.85. And similar to the heartbreak of psoriasis is the anguishing realization of discovering your Gold-coated bar is otherwise comprehensively Tungsten-filled. To wit, this faux Lady Fortuna torn open such as to reveal her innards:
Gut-wrenching sacriledge, that. And yet, why are we going on about it? Courtesy of Bloomy: “CME Group plans to launch tungsten futures early in the first quarter of 2027″. Reprise Murray Head from back in ’75: 
“Say it ain’t so, Joe…”
However, we can resolve this on a happy note: Gold futures contracts are settled physically; those for Tungsten shall be cash-settled, thus hopefully there shan’t be any of it physically about for covertly co-mingling shenanigans. Regardless, if taking delivery of Gold, ’tis always a good idea to have your pocket-sized fluoroscope, spectrometer or ultrasonic device handy … just to be sure. Perhaps there’ll even be an app for that.
Meanwhile into the new week, the basing battle for “The Floor” of Gold 4000 continues. Structurally, as long as the 3900s continue to hold, we’ll then anticipate the next upturn for Gold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
23 October 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are presently below their Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, (the non-BEGOS Yen having already traced 122% of its EDTR [see Market Ranges for those of the BEGOS components]). As to the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components vis-à-vis their respective valuation lines, we’ve (in real-time): the Bond as 3^09 points “high”, the Euro as -0.007 points “low”, Gold as -233 points “low”, Oil as +7.27 points “high” and the Spoo as +51 points “high”. Gold’s basing pattern has broken down somewhat, essentially having reached “The Floor” of 4000 earlier this morning, (price currently 4029): more of course tomorrow in the 884th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. Coming into the conclusion of the third week of Q3 Earnings Season, we’re noting the unusual phenomenon of more results bettering their bottom lines than exceeding estimates. And the Econ Baro wraps up its subtle week with the revision to October’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
22 October 2026 – 08:32 Central Euro Time
Save for the Euro, the seven other BEGOS Markets are at present outside today’s Neutral Zones: above are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Oil, whilst below are the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust. Copper (currently 6.480) has thus far traded down to worse than a one-month low: Copper’s best Market Rhythm for targeted profit (say 0.0760 points per swing) is the 6hr Moneyflow, whereas for pure swing consistency ’tis the 1hr Parabolics; Copper’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 6.575. Recall from our 09 October post that for the S&P 500 MoneyFlow we were seeing a “wrinkle of weakness”, since which the Index has been struggling a bit. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include September’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
21 October 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Yesterday, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) moved above the key -80% axis, the rule being higher prices near-term: currently 1.1247, we can structurally envision a move up to 1.1349, notably as the Dollar Index has been coming off these last few sessions following its recent high at 102.735 (now 101.615); by its Market Profile, the Euro shows volume-dominant support at 1.1240; the Euro’s best Market Rhythm if targeting a specific amount of follow-though per swing (for example 0.0144 points) is the daily Price Oscillator, whereas for pure swing consistency ’tis the 12-hour Parabolics. Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
20 October 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold yesterday dropped through volume-dominant Market Profile support of 4180, price now 4149 and having slipped below the Market Magnet of 4172; Gold’s best Market Rhythms continue to be (for targeted profit) the daily Moneyflow, or by pure swing consistency, the daily Price Oscillator. By Market Trends, Oil is the sole BEGOS component tracing a positive 21-day linreg, although amongst the downtrenders, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising notable for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. For the Econ Baro we’ve September’s Housing Starts/Permits and Pending Home Sales.
19 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
Both the Euro and Oil are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Silver, Copper and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. The Gold Update gives emphasis to price as basing rather than declining even as the weekly parabolic Short trend continues, (and likely shall so do for some weeks to come as the flip-to-Long price for this week of 4703 is well out of range from the actual 4194 level); therein too per our inflation table, we state the FOMC shall vote to raise the Bank’s funds rate come 28 October. Our recent wriitng for a higher Bond, Euro, Swiss and Oil all have been playing out to the upside; see notably the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency at Market Trends. And ’tis a somewhat subdued week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with October’s NAHB Housing Index.
16 October 2026 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
As was the instance ’round this time Wednesday, Copper again is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. Oil has already nearly achieved our 99s notion as suggested last Tuesday, (yesterday’s outgoing November cac having reached up to 98.32). In assessing the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time): the Bond just 0^26 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro only -0.006 points “low”, Gold -91 points “low”, Oil +4.00 points “high” and the Spoo +223 points “high”. Tomorrow’s 883rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update may cite the yellow metal’s daily Moneyflow as crossing to positive: ’tis best Gold’s best Market Rhythm across its last 10 swings if targeting a specific level of follow-through points/swing. And the Econ Baro finishes the week with September’s Ex/Im Prices and CapUtil/IndProd.
The Gold Update: No. 883 – (17 October 2026) – “Gold Basing Against Its Short Trend’s Tracing”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 883rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 17 October 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Basing Against Its Short Trend’s Tracing“
In gliding toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s next vote come 28 October by which ’twill raise its Bank’s funds rate from the current 3.75%-4.00% range to that of 4.00%-4.25%, we’ve nonetheless a Gold technical positive — as teased in yesterday’s Prescient Commentary — even as the weekly parabolic Short trend remains in force. ‘Tis the Market Rhythm of Gold’s Moneyflow.
“And that’s the standard ‘canned’ Moneyflow, right mmb?”
So ’tis, Squire, a feature provided across most data platforms of substance. And for this occasion, we take you for a rare glimpse deep within the deMeadville analytics that ultimately drive our Market Rhythms page. This next graphic’s upper panel is Gold by the day from November 2025-to-date with the standard Moneyflow study; the center panel depicts the stats per signal; and the lower split panel both conservative and aggressive approaches to using the signal:
“And what does it all mean, mmb?”
That hindsight is a beautiful thing, Squire. The Moneyflow has triggered 10 swing signals since November 2025, naturally alternating back-and-forth between Long and Short, (notwithstanding our tenet that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”). A Long signal is confirmed upon price passing up through and settling above the Moneyflow’s thin green line, else a Short signal if passing and settling beneath the thin red line.
But to the point: were one to have determined in trading a single COMEX Gold futures contract ($100/point) to target 35 points (i.e. $3,500/trade) of price follow-through per signal, such goal was achieved for all ten following cases as cumulated via the conservative blue line in the above graphic’s lower left panel. However, ’tis not so simple per this two-bullet cautionary note:
- The Math: We’ve referred in the past to the great French polymath Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace, whose probability formula determined that if a like result is obtained ten consecutive times (in this case 35 follow-through Gold points per signal), the odds of an 11th like consecutive occurrence is 91.67%.
- The Reality: Specific to markets, the odds of an 11th consecutive like occurrence is actually 50.00%. Do try not to get carried away.
But wait, there’s more (a lot more): see the aggressive cumulative green line in the above graphic’s lower right panel? That’s the pure swing result across the 10 signals without targeted follow-through. It totals $232,940 (ex-slippage and commissions) on a base margin requirement of $21,000, (i.e. an 11-month return in excess of 1,000%). The reason ’tis working so well is the vast expanse of Gold’s bi-directional trading range through these many months. However, it shan’t continue in perpetuity because it never so does. A word to the wise therefore is sufficient, this again merely being an exercise given hindsight: foresight is up to you.
Now to our wise view of Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date. Therein we see a third week of red-dotted parabolic Short trend, although our sense is Gold’s downside is limited to “The Floor” at 4000, (albeit as the sole recipient [JGS] of the first edition of The Gold Update would opine: “There’s always the overshoot”). Either way, as herein cited a week ago, we are comfortable with today’s Gold price, it having settled yesterday (Friday) at 4187 as sandwiched between Fair Value of 4011 and our BEGOS Market Value of 4293, (the latter determined by price’s movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets being the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500). That said, the tilt of the whole chart has rotated to negative per the dashed regression trendline. But given the inevitable Federal Reserve “mass creation” of more faux dough, broadly the buyside clearly is the way to go. And as our title states, price near-term appears more to be basing than downside tracing:
Indeed specific to said basing, here next we’ve our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. We’ve coloured the recent trading days in violet to emphasize what appears to be price basing rather than declining. Moreover, the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency are continuing their attempt to push up after having been beneath the key -80% axis (as herein depictively detailed a week ago). As to the Profile, price is at present within the big belly of volume-dominant trading which essentially extends from 4168 up to 4210:
Having aforementioned that “we are comfortable with today’s Gold price”, we see Silver through this past week as perhaps a bit underpriced, her settling Friday at 57.14. Per the opening Scoreboard, the Gold/Silver ratio has ratcheted up to 73.3x, on Wednesday reaching 74.0x, the highest level since 04 December a year ago. And whilst today’s price of 57.14 is not that far from Fair Value of 57.94, hardly has Silver been basing in concert with Gold, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is why the ratio is rising). So given Sweet Sister Silver’s pricing relative to Gold, the white metal’s next upside progression may be even more bold. As to her like two-panel graphic, at left Silver’s “Baby Blues” are not enthused, even as at right she basically settled on a volume-dominant handle per the white bar. “C’mon Sister Silver!”
Be the precious metals basing within their broader negative tracing, the Economic Barometer is in (dare we coin the word) “inversity” to the S&P 500 as starkly next shown. ‘Twas a fine week for the Econ Baro as 11 of the 16 incoming metrics bettered themselves period-over-period. Notably improving were both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September: they bettered consensus as well as the August paces, which in turn were revised higher. “America is at work!”
“Well, it’s also back to work from summer, mmb…”
We’ll grant you that one, Squire. Still, the month’s Existing Home Sales expanded, plus the New York State Empire Index for October leapt beyond any and all expectations from September’s 7.6 to now 25.5. ‘Course, the S&P continues to wriggle through the seasonal worries typical of October wherein many-a-mutual fund ends its fiscal year, the extreme overvaluation of the Index itself notwithstanding.
Oh to be sure, early as ’tis, Q3 Earnings Season is off to an excellent start: of the 29 S&P 500 constituents thus far having reported, 25 (86%) have improved their bottom lines from Q3 in 2025. The average year-over-year earnings growth (for those having reported) is +15.6% … and therein lies the inevitable problem: earnings really need be doubling and then some to justify the level of the S&P itself (7659); for even ex-CRWD, the “live” P/E of the S&P is at this instant 44.5x, triple that taught as “acceptable” in portfolio theory. How long can that last as rates and yields rise? Here’s the Baro with the S&P in red:
“Got Gold?” indeed. With its Moneyflow crossing to positive, as stated we sense price is basing even within the parabolic Short trend’s tracing. Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 198 points, which (for those of you scoring at home) is within one week’s reach of testing “The Floor” at 4000 should price run down from here. Moreover, conventional wisdom says higher yields equal lower Gold, which we’ve herein disproven over these many years, (notably citing from 2004 though 2006). And as stated at the outset, the FOMC shall raise the funds rate on 28 October. They’ve no choice but to so do as we go to our partially-completed table of the September Inflation Summary. Note that the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures data shan’t be reported until the day after (29 October) the FOMC’s Policy Statement (28 October). So this is what they’ve got, the “Averages” wildly beyond any 2% inflation target:
Such as that all stacks up for the Fed, here we wrap with The Gold Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long: 4703
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4343 and rising
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4293
10-Session directional range: up to 4241 (from 4093) = +148 points or +3.6%
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4196 / 4210
Gold Currently: 4187, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 75 points)
Trading Support: nearby Market Profile notables: 4181 / 4168 / 4151 / 4115
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4172
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4011
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
And mind that Gold Moneyflow!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
15 October 2026 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Volatility is thus far the watchword this morning, that for the BEGOS Markets ranging from moderate-to-robust, the EuroCurrencies notably having already traced well in excess of 100% of today’s EDTRs (see Market Ranges) on the heels of the Dollar Index yesterday having hit an 18-month high. Presently, the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Copper, Oil and the Spoo are below same. The Spoo yesterday passed beneath its Market Magnet, suggestive of still lower prices near-term: structurally (price currently 7740), we can see retests initially of the 01 October low (7673) followed by that of 16 September (7575); Q3 Earnings Season thus far for the 16 S&P 500 constituents having reported is excellent; however, the overall valuation issue remains the broad cap-weighted summation of earnings being too low to support the level of the Index, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E at this instant 70.4x (or ex-CRWD 46.5x). Cac volume for Oil is rolling from November into December. And a significant load of incoming metrics is due for the Econ Baro, including October’s NY Empire State and Philly Fed Indices, September’s wholesale inflation via the PPI, plus the month’s Retail Sales, and August’s Business Inventories.
14 October 2026 – 08:33 Central Euro Time
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; overall session volatility is light. In addition to both Gold and Oil have just recently found their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having moved above their respective key -80% axes, confirming same yesterday were both the Bond and Swiss Franc, indicative of higher price levels near-term: for the Bond (103^28) we can see a run to 106, albeit the picture for the Franc (1.2104) is a bit more congested to the upside; too, inflation data these next two days may set a more fundamental tone across the BEGOS components. Our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency to this point are (10-test basis) Silver’s 1hr Parabolics and both the Euro’s 30mn MACD and 30mn Moneyflow; also (24-test basis) they are both Oil’s 360 Parabolics and 4hr MACD, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr Parabolics. The September inflation puzzle commences today with the retail level’s CPI for the Econ Baro. And late in the session we’ve the Fed’s Tan Tome.
13 October 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Each of the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Similarly as we saw on Friday for Gold, Oil yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having moved above the key -80% axis such that we anticipate higher prices near-term: currently 92.55, clearing Market Profile resistance at 93.80 may open the door toward the 99s, (obviously the wildcard being the war); the most volume-dominant underlying Market Profile supporter is 90.70. Oil’s daily Parabolics flipped to Long from the 93.21 opening today: the last ten flips (either Long or Short) have produced follow-through of at least 12 points per signal. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Existing Home Sales, followed late in the session by the month’s Treasury Budget. And the financials begin populating Q3 Earnings Season.
12 October 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
‘Tis quiet into a new week characterized by Q3 Earnings Season notably for financials, along with 16 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro. At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update looks to price finally making a “higher high” in this new week (which already has occurred this morning) following six consecutive weeks of “lower highs”; too, Silver is seen as fairly priced relative to Gold; and the latter’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed moving on Friday above their key -80% axis, suggestive of higher prices near-term. Per the Spoo by Fair Value, the S&P at this instant would open at 7835, sandwiched between the all-time closing high of 7819 and all-time intraday high of 7845. ‘Tis a week to be firmly strapped into one’s seat.
The Gold Update: No. 882 – (10 October 2026) – “Gold’s a-Shiver in the Dark and Silver’s Seekin’ Spark”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 882nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 October 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s a-Shiver in the Dark and Silver’s Seekin’ Spark“
But meantime… within these recent two months of precious metals’ negativity, at least Gold and Silver managed to record respective net gains since we last met. Gold having settled yesterday (Friday) at 4220 was +1.2% (+48 points) for the week, whilst Silver closed its week at 61.11, +0.7% (+0.40 points). Regardless, Gold’s road to escaping the shivering darkness of the weekly parabolic Short trend remains quite an upside row to hoe. Let’s begin with that graphic, wherein we find Gold — despite its having regained a little ground — nonetheless posting a “lower high” for the sixth consecutive week, the dashed year-over-year regression trendline rotating to negative for the first time since mid-March 2023:
“That’s nearly a ‘lower highs’ record there, huh mmb…”
Squire, through the 1,345 trading weeks century-to-date, this is but the eighth mutually-exclusive occurrence of six or more consecutive “lower weekly highs”, the record being eight into October 2014 during the four-year stint when for Gold ’twas all going wrong.
However, the encouraging news is with Gold having closed (4220) not far off the week’s high (4234) — barring a significant down gap at Monday’s open — price this next week ought finally make a “higher high” given the expected weekly trading range now is 204 points, (the daily alone now 81 points). Either way, Gold has (yet?) to retest “The Floor” of 4000 as herein documented ad nauseam.
Notwithstanding that supportive notion for Gold, poor ol’ Sister Silver of late has been navigating her own dire strait. Whilst she’s been slipping at a greater pace than has Gold, (which is normal), she’s not been benefitting from a firmer — or at least somewhat stable — Cousin Copper. To be sure, Gold year-to-date is now -2.6% (and per the opening Scoreboard’s panel of yearly comparisons is priced almost exactly where ’twas a year ago-to-date). But: with Copper now +17.9% in 2026, it seems most untoward to find Silver -13.9%. ‘Tis as if Silver is being left too far behind even within this precious metals’ slide.
To wit, the following two-panel graphic. The upper frame encompasses the cumulative daily percentage price tracks of our Metals Triumvirate from one month ago-to-date, Copper basically being above water, with Gold and Silver sinking. The lower frame is the same stint for both the Gold/Silver ratio and Copper/Silver ratio. The rise in both ratios being stark is indicative of Silver lacking, indeed seeking, spark:
In fact, just this past Thursday, the Gold/Silver ratio exceeded 70x for the first session since 20 July, the white metal’s fallout as noted being faster than that of the yellow. Yet all that said: is Silver merely aligning with where she ought actually be? In again referencing the opening Scoreboard, the Gold/Silver ratio today at 69.1x is but one pip below its century-to-date evolving average of 69.2x. We love Sweet Sister Silver, despite her suffering more of late than Gold. But as we’ve herein quipped through the years: “Change is an Illusion, whereas Price is the Truth.” And by that maxim, Gold and Silver today are fairly priced in “Harmony” –[Elton John, ’73].
“Which is why both are about the same distance above their Fair Values, right mmb?”
Absolutely correct, Squire. And as noted a week ago with respect to Gold, “The Floor” of 4000 is practically spot-on with today’s Fair Value of 4008. ‘Tis quite the catalysing confluence for considering conversion of cash into Gold, (just in case you’re scoring at home). Remember: we’re not expecting too much price adversity over the duration of this fresh weekly parabolic Short trend. Yes, yields and the Dollar are on the move just as they were from ’04 into ’06, (during which three-year stint Gold increased +53%; but we guess that shan’t be noted on CNBS). For more important than the cost of money, the amount of money needed to cover today’s massive debt and equity overvaluation doesn’t by many times even exist. “Got Gold?”
Here next we’ve the Economic Barometer. ‘Twas not a great week: with just six incoming metrics, four were worse period-over-period, the two really weak links being August’s Trade Deficit, which was worse than consensus and worse than that for July, itself revised deeper. Similarly for the month’s Consumer Credit, ’twas but half that for July, it too revised lower, and well below consensus, suggesting slowing in spending by the largest driver of the U.S. economy. At least as Q3 Earnings Season kicks into a higher gear next week, the S&P can attempt even more extreme overvaluation (understatement): all ya gotta do is beat those low-bar estimates! Here’s the Baro:
Now to a Gold positive. This is our usual two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, to which we’ve appended an internal signaling snippet that updates in the overnight work. ‘Tis specific to Friday’s finish of the “Baby Blues” having just crept above their -80% axis, the printed interpretation directly from the website. Positive as well for Gold per the Profile is the fat belly of underlying volume-dominant support, 4190 being the most commonly-traded price across the past fortnight:
Silver’s like two-panel display has yet to find her “Baby Blues” (at left) penetrate below the key -80% axis, (not that they must reach down that far, which is for the present is a positive). By her Profile (at right), price today at 61.11 is just below volume-dominant resistance at 61.40, which of course is swiftly clearable should the precious metals further their Friday bid into the new week. “C’mon, Sister Silver!”
We thus contra-trend sense “Against All Odds” –[Columbia, ’84] that Gold and Silver are due an up week: both metals have produced but two in the past seven. Yet, Friday’s inflows saved last week, Gold’s +62-point net day’s gain (+1.5%) its best since 29 September and that for Silver of +1.68 points (+2.7%) her best since 17 September. Besides, the StateSide Executive Branch is seeing a stay of warring activities through Tuesday, 03 November (“Election Day”), a run of 17 trading days from here. And we’ve observed since the USA/IRN war get-go on 28 February (with Big Oil driving the bus): war on, Gold down; war off, Gold up!
Good grief, Squire, that really evokes a shiver in the dark… but at least they’ve “Got Gold!”
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
09 October 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Euro plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again mostly moderate, the notably exception still being Copper having already traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold has been getting some grip, certainly so today, as is Silver, which relative to the yellow metal had been falling behind the norm: more tomorrow in the 882nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday, the Bond — at least for the moment — reversed course to the upside, notably clearing volume-dominant Market Profile resistance at 102^22, (the current trade is at 102^27); for Market Rhythm pure swing consistency, mind the Bond’s 15mn Moneyflow. The Dollar Index having been above 102 during the week is retreating a bit today (currently 101.865). Per the S&P 500 MoneyFlow page, we are seeing wrinkle of weakness. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with October’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
08 October 2026 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market is mostly moderate, Copper exceptionally having already traded 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Top Three on 10-test basis are to date both Gold’s daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr MACD; for the 24-test basis they are both Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and 15mn Moneyflow, plus the Yen’s 4hr MACD. The risk-full yield of the S&P 500 is 1.070% vs. the risk-less yield of the 1yr T-Bill’s 4.420%. The Gold/Silver ratio now at 69.9x is the highest level since 03 August: Gold is attempting to gain grip, whereas Silver keeps slipping away, even as Copper is firming. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Wholesale Inventories.
07 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
As mused yesterday given its potential trading range, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high at 7845: the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 79.2x (or ex-CRWD ’tis 49.0x). Presently, we’ve yet again both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, as too are the Bond, Gold, Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time): the Bond -5^19 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.026 points “low”, Gold -274 points “low”, Oil -1.61 points “low” and the Spoo +235 points “high”. Late in the session is the release of the FOMC Minutes from the 15/16 September meeting, plus for the Econ Baro, August’s Consumer Credit.
06 October 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
As we saw ’round this time yesterday, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are again below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Our best Market Rhythms for the Euro are the daily Price Oscillator and 2hr Moneyflow; for the Franc, they are the daily EMA and 2hr MACD. Oil yesterday slipped below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 92.90, and price slipped below its Market Magnet of 92.04, currently 88.78 is trading; our best Market Rhythms for Oil are the daily Parabolics and 8hr MACD. The all-time high for the S&P 500 remains that at 7817 from 13 August: however that is coming within range, as by Fair Value at this instant, the S&P would gap higher to 7794. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Trade Deficit.
05 October 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Into the new week we’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust, notably so for the Euro in having already traced 171% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) ’tis said due to inflation and French fiscal concerns. The Gold Update confirms price’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped to Short, yet not much downside is anticipated in eyeing 4000 as “The Floor”; currently 4180 is trading; again, Gold’s key Market Rhythms to mind are both the Price Oscillator and Parabolics on the daily chart. The S&P 500 MoneyFlow page is evidence of just how much dough is being thrown into the large-cap constituents. For the Econ Baro we’ve September’s ISM(Svc) Index. And Q3 Earnings Season gets underway through 20 November.
The Gold Update: No. 881 – (03 October 2026) – “Our Key Gold Trend Flips Short; Yet ‘The Floor’ of 4000 Is Support”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 881st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 October 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Our Key Gold Trend Flips Short; Yet ‘The Floor’ of 4000 Is Support“
Having opened last week’s piece (“Still Lower Gold Ahead”) with “We honestly hope we’re wrong about this…”, unfortunately we were right. Barely had the ink from our Chinese-lacquered S.T. Dupont Gold-tipped fountain pen dried upon the final draft being submitted for publication, that the trading week commenced with Gold falling like a stone on Monday alone from 4321 to what would hold as the week’s low at 4143. Regardless, ’twas a single session intra-day loss of -178 points, (or -4.1%, eighth-worst year-to-date), as rather reluctantly read ahead by The Gold Update.
Followed came Tuesday’s Prescient Commentary stating “Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short”, as further confirmed by yesterday’s (Friday’s) settle at 4172. ‘Twas not a beautiful thAng, but as you regular readers know, the flip had already been brewing through recent weeks. Here are the year-over-year weekly bars featuring the rightmost first red dot as encircled of the new parabolic Short trend:
“But what about the support at 4000, mmb?
Thank you, Squire, for citing that key area we’ve dubbed “The Floor”. In the above graphic (as noted a week ago) you can see the pricing cluster ’round the 4000 area from back in June/July. Moreover, given the new Short trend, might its downside there end? As a guesstimate for downside slide, here we’ve updated our table of Gold’s prior 10 weekly parabolic Short trends. And therein we see an average duration of eight weeks with a modest maximum average decline of -2.5%:
So, by measuring from here at 4172 solely within the vacuum of that average, Gold would go as low as 4068, a reasonably acceptable area to apply the brakes. As well, per the opening Gold Scoreboard, Fair Value for Gold today is 4005, although admittedly, price today at 4172 already is -7.3% below its BEGOS Market Value of 4499, (also as shown in the Scoreboard). That is a fairly extreme deviation of price below valuation of -327 points; however, we witnessed distances better than double that as the Gold wheels came off this past March/April. Either way, it being month-end (plus two trading days), let’s go to our BEGOS Market Standings thus far for 2026, wherein Gold again is in the red and poor ol’ Sister Silver nearly left for dead, (which from her industrial metal perspective seems a bit untoward given Cousin Copper’s surging ahead):
As for the whole BEGOS bunch, here are their respective last 21 trading days (one month) replete with the diagonal grey trendlines and “Baby Blues”, the dots that depict the day-to-day consistency of each trend. Save for Copper and the S&P 500, (the latter as envisioned by Stoopid & Co. never having had a down day since its inception on 04 March 1957), a war-and-inflation-driven rising Dollar is beating down the balance of the bunch, even as Oil, too, is falling of late:
And specific to inflation, with last Wednesday’s release of the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures data for August, the month’s table is now complete, every listed category running above the Federal Reserve’s preferred pace of +2%. That desired level is the horizontal red line in the graphic’s lower panel. Yes, August’s PCE data was cooler than consensus … but both the headline and core paces were faster than those for July, plus on balance ’tis all still high by the Fed’s eye:
As to the StateSide economy, can it weather another Federal Open Market Committee vote to again nudge up its Bank’s FundsRate come the 28 October Policy Statement? Last week brought 16 metrics into the Economic Barometer, eight of which fared poorer per the prior period. The real data shocker for us was Personal Spending soaring in August by +0.9%, almost completely unsupported by Personal Income rising only +0.2%. “How’s that variable-rate credit card workin’ out for ya??” And per the Conference Board, September’s Consumer Confidence recorded its second-worst month-over-month drop since COVID during 2021. “Are you confident??” Gotta cue this one: “Nobody Knows You When You’re Down and Out”–(Jimmie Cox, 1923). At least (as previously grasped), the S&P 500 apparently never goes down. Here’s the Baro:
Returning to true monetary substance, here next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. Given the fallouts of the past week, prices within this construct are in their respective “soul-sols” (a little French lingo there) per the white line in each panel. And as labeled, volume-dominant resistance for the yellow metal is at 4190, whereas for the white metal ’tis the 61.20-61.45 zone, her having settled the week at 60.71:
As to key of the precious metals’ equity brethren, here are their percentage tracks from a year ago-to-date. From first-to-worst they are: Newmont (NEM) +34%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +20%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +16%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +14%, both Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) +8%, and Gold itself +7%. As noted earlier in the Standings, the latter is actually down year-to-date, as is PAAS. Here’s the whole gang:
And it being month-end, ’tis time once again for the monthly Gold Structure across the last eight years, the rightmost wee candle being October thus far. With respect to Gold’s aforementioned “sous-sol” positioning within the Market Profile — especially now in consideration of price more broadly moving toward the “The Floor” at 4000 — we’re put in mind of the noted cinematic classic from ’63 (Cité Films) as portrayed in the graphic. “Quel drame, mes amis!”
Thus — of which we’ve been wary through recent weeks — Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has flipped to Short, yet “The Floor” of 4000 is support and ’tis in range to get tested in the new week. Thereto, should Fair Value (4005) trade, ’tis always a brilliant opportunity to buy, (barring the StateSide money supply shrinking over time … impossible).
“Wow, is that Grace Kelly, mmb?
‘Tis a state secret, Squire. But as inevitably the Fed shall be forced to spin the printing tumblers to both pay down debt and bail out broker I.O.U. holders of S&P 500 (et alia) constituents, in turn we’ll see Gold fly high into the sky!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
02 October 2026 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Presently, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is again moderate, albeit noting that the Franc already has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); it remains to be seen if this is the start of an notable up move for the Franc and Euro as we’d anticipated a week ago: key to mind there are the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends); too, the Franc yesterday moved above volume-dominant Market Profile resistor of 1.2130, (current price 1.2163). Gold has stabilized following Monday’s demise, even as today brings confirmation of the weekly parabolic trend’s having flipped to Short: more of course in tomorrow’s 881st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And the Econ Baro closes out its busy week with September’s Payrolls data, plus August’s Factory Orders.
01 October 2026 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Gold, Silver and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Spoo. The S&P’s settle yesterday (7651.54) was a “Hobson Close” on the session’s low, market lore being that it shall move higher at the open, (which at this instant market to Fair Value would be a gain of +51 points). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are Gold’s daily Price Oscillator, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr MACD (which provisionally at this writing is crossing to negative), and Oil’s 8hr MACD; on a 24-test basis, they are both Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and 4hr MACD, plus the Yen’s 4hr MACD. Silver yesterday traded down through its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 61.20, however has regained that level thus far today. Incoming Econ Baro metrics include September’s ISM(Mfg) Index and August’s Construction Spending.
30 September 2026 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
The Euro is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is expectedly light ahead of the busy incoming metrics load for the Econ Baro, namely: September’s ADP Employment data and Chi PMI, the final revision to Q2 GDP, plus August’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” PCE data here on the final trading day of Q3. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components vis-à-vis their respective valuation lines, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond a full -6 points “low”, the Euro -0.031 points “low”, Gold -322 points “low, Oil +0.61 points “high” and the Spoo -17 points “low”; these multiple cases of “low” are indicative of recent Dollar strength. Oil (currently 89.78) yesterday slipped beneath volume-dominant Market Profile support at 92.20, whereas Copper (now 6.638) moved above like resistance at 6.620. We look for session volatility to ramp up post-PCE.
29 September 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short, price yesterday falling by as much as -4.1% to 4143, the lowest level since 05 August; the new hurdle price to regain the Longside is 4755. Currently 4176, Gold as well as Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the Swiss Franc is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light. The recent “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) Long signals for both the Swiss Franc and Euro have yet to produce gains given the war’s Oil/Dollar bid, the “Dixie” pushing back up above 101 as we’d last seen in June and July. The Spoo yesterday slid below its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter of 7766, (current price 7745); still, the “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is a futs-adj’d 73.1x and the yield 1.092%; (that for the 1yr riskless T-Bill is 4.590%). The Econ Baro awaits Consumer Confidence for September.
28 September 2026 – 08:48 Central Euro Time
Into the new week, we’ve seven of the eight BEGOS Markets at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the sole component above same is Oil, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update rather reluctantly cites “Still Lower Gold Ahead”, which clearly is the case at the moment, the current price of 4208 being -112 points: the weekly parabolic flip-to-Short level is 4190, and most broadly, Fair Value is 4001; in real-time, Gold is -344 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the daily Price Oscillator, or if seeking a per swing profit of 35 points, ’tis the daily Moneyflow. The Econ Baro, whilst quiet today, has a heavy load of incoming 16 metrics as the balance of the week unfolds, including on Wednesday the “Fed-favoured” PCE data.
The Gold Update: No. 880 – (26 September 2026) – “Still Lower Gold Ahead”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 880th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Still Lower Gold Ahead“
We honestly hope we’re wrong about this, but in a 180° about-face from our 15 August missive entitled “Still Higher Gold Ahead” — after which price indeed swiftly increased +7.3% from 4432 to 4755 — we now herewith have “Still Lower Gold Ahead”.
Ongoing war and inflating rates continue to play havoc with the Gold price, which just recorded its fourth down week in the past five. Oh to be sure, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend is surviving the Long side; but as we herein penned two weeks ago, the case for: “an otherwise pending change from Long to Short trend, perhaps by month’s end” appears just ’round the bend. Thus let’s straightaway start with Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date:
In having settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4321“plop”, Gold now sits but +131 points above the parabolic trend’s flip-to-Short level of 4190. Such “running out of room” given price’s expected weekly trading range now being 216 points, the Long trend clearly is in jeopardy. Too, the graphic’s Gold-dashed regression trendline — which has been positively sloped since mid-March 2023 — is nearing rotation to negative.
Yet fortunately as also thereon depicted, we’ve the 4316-3955 support zone, encompassing “The Floor” of 4000 (which you’ll recall we’ve on occasion cited). As well by the opening Gold Scoreboard, Fair Value today is 4001. Recall the prior test of Fair Value (then 3979 back on 26 June) immediately bringing in the buyers, price in due course reaching the aforementioned recent dominant high of 4755 (on 25 August).
The point is: even should price in the next week or two succumb to a parabolic Short trend, we anticipate ’twill be comprehensively pun-intended short-lived.
Neither let us dismiss what we penned a week ago, that our “leading deMeadville metrics are near to churning favorably for Gold, especially were the war to quickly wind down (albeit doubtful) and the August PCE come in Fed-friendly (also doubtful).”
“But those ‘doubtfuls’ ain’t goin’ away, huh mmb…”
Squire, the “doubtful” of the USA/IRN (dare we say “et alia”) war-to-date has thus far never rescinded to anything better than a stalemate. And notwithstanding the Stateside mid-term election (03 November), there is musing amongst the punditry that the conflict shall extend into next year, (aka Korea, Viet Nam, Afghanistan). The negative effect on Gold as the Dollar gets the bid to purchase Oil has been awkwardly cumbersome. To wit, here are the percentage tracks since the inception of the war from 28 February-to-date of Gold, Oil, the Dollar Index and (as ’tis again getting a bid) Bitcoin. Note: the way the Dollar is priced, the percentage alacrity lacks that of the other markets; but its small percentage moves can have large effects, as clearly is the case on Gold:
As well, next week brings the “doubtful” of the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures for August, both the headline and core paces expected to be at three-month highs. Moreover, the FedFunds futures are priced above the current 3.750%-4.000% target range, now at 4.175% and thus are leaning toward another rate hike come the 28 October Policy Statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Conventional wisdom sees rising interest rates as Gold-negative, although hardly is that axiomatic as below we make evident so far this century:
Then there’s the Economic Barometer into which this past week came a scant five metrics. Four of them period-over-period were better, most notably August’s New Home Sales by beating consensus with July revised upward. But: “Hey buyers! How are those higher mortgage rates workin’ out for ya?” Here’s the Baro: does it necessarily have a Fed hike lean? Come Wednesday we’ll get the PCE scene within a week of metrics totaling sixteen:
Now drilling deeper into Gold, here we’ve our two-panel display of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Again, “churning” Gold positive may be the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency having (at least for the moment) curtailed their fall. The aforementioned support zone is the leftmost cluster of bars. As to the Profile, a week ago price was 4416, whereas now at 4321 ’tis beneath volume-dominant resistance at initially 4327 and then at 4390, making it appear a rocky upside road for Gold:
And here we’ve Silver’s like graphic. Long-time readers of The Gold Update know that when Sister Silver is cavorting with Cousin Copper, the white metal’s graphic doesn’t always align well with that for the yellow metal. But as Silver these recent months has been wearing her precious metal pinstripes (as opposed to her industrial metal jacket), both sets of graphics (above and below) appear quite identical:
Thus, on rolleth The Investing Age of Stoopid. Over here, the pros we know are on the edge of their deck chairs waiting for the S&P to crash, whereas the under-40 crowd are chasing — well — Crowdstrike and the like.
Meanwhile from the “Cash Is King Dept.”, UBS opines that cash is a “poor” long-term investment as it yields less than 1%. Guess what also just barely yields 1%? The S&P 500 (per our opening Gold Scoreboard). So is the S&P thus, too, a “poor” investment? Remember (as we’ve on occasion mentioned): it took the S&P over 13 years from 2000 into 2013 to net a gain of just +2%. Not to worry, however: the once-mighty Barron’s opined this past Thursday that “Stocks Are Resilient, Fairly Priced, and Probably Getting Ready to Rally”. Let’s therefore wrap as we again update this old-timer:
As we opened, hopefully we’re wrong about “Still Lower Gold Ahead”, albeit it can be tough to fight both the war and the Fed. But that said, make sure you’ve Gold as an investment stead!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
25 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is en route to completing its fourth down week in the last five, however not so much as to yet flip the weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short; still, there shan’t be much wiggle room remaining as we go into tomorrow’s 880th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo (7777) has nearly returned up to its BEGOS Market Value (7812 in real-time); but the P/E of the S&P 500 itself is (ex-CRWD) 47.8x and the yield 1.082% vs. 4.510% on the “riskless” 1yr T-Bill; of note, FedFundsFuts are at present pricing in another +0.25% rate increase come the 28 October FOMC Policy Statement. And the Econ Baro wraps its limited week with the revision to September’s UofM Sentiment Survey and August’s Durable Orders.
24 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc is at present the sole BEGOS Market above today’s Neutral Zone; below same are both Copper and the Spoo, and session volatility is light. As was the case for the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, the Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having risen above the key -80% axis, suggestive of still higher levels near-term: currently 1.1427, we’re eying a run up into the 1.16s. By Market Rhythms for the Euro, pure swing consistency has been per the 6hr MACD; or if seeking a profit target per swing of 0.0144 points, the daily Price Oscillator; also, the Euro as a primary BEGOS component is (in real-time) -0.0362 points beneath its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s New Home Sales and Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
23 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Bond is presently above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are all the other BEGOS Markets, save for the Spoo, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Yesterday’s settles confirmed two “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) signals: to the Long side ’tis for the Swiss Franc, the Blues having moved above the -80% axis; currently 1.2288, the signal suggests a move up into the 1.24s; conversely, Oil’s Blues falling below +80% elicited a move to the Short side: currently 89.38, the 85s reasonably may trade near-term, (the war of course being the wildcard); too, Oil has moved beneath its Market Magnet for the first time since 28 August. Oil’s best Market Rhythm by pure swing consistency is the 30mn Parabolics, or if seeking a target of 1.8 points/swing, the daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro kicks into late-week gear tomorrow.
22 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Gold and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Yesterday’s raucous rally in the S&P 500 (+1.5% or 114 points) ranks eighth-best (by %) year-to-date, in turn driving the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E to 71.1x, (that of constituent CRWD alone being 6737.3x, without which the P/E would be 47.1x). Specific to the Spoo (which by its “continuous contract” has touched the all-time high of 7838), its best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 15mn MACD, whereas if seeking a profit target of 52 points per swing, ’tis the daily EMA. Meanwhile, Gold’s weak start to the week continues: currently 4357, price yesterday fell below volume-dominant Market Profile support at 4390 which, too, is its Market Magnet. As noted yesterday, the Econ Baro remains quiet until Thursday.
21 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Presently, both the Bond and Spoo are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update sees the weekly parabolic Long trend as having at least another week to run, albeit price needs a substantive move up to maintain our targeted notion of 4959 from five weeks ago at 4432 (indeed price having then made it to as high as 4755 only to now be down at 4385); the war remains the negative wildcard for the yellow metal. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the daily Price Oscillator, or if seeking a profit objective of 35 points per swing, the daily Moneyflow (as is listed on the current Market Rhythms page). This is a very subdued week for the Econ Baro with a scant five incoming metrics scheduled, none of which appear until Thursday.
The Gold Update: No. 879 – (19 September 2026) – “Gold Records (Barely) an Up Week in Maintaining the Long Streak”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 879th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Records (Barely) an Up Week in Maintaining the Long Streak“
We open courtesy of “The Bob Hope Dept.” with this comedy classic: “Boy, Did I Get a Wrong Number!” –[United Artists, ’66]. For a week ago upon Squire asking us if the Federal Reserve would raise rates, we thus did state: “No change in rates“. Our notion was — the Fed always being late — that its favoured inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) was just a brief ten trading days hence, not to mention the media-portended political ire a rate hike would inspire. Thus to ensure, let one more meeting endure. “Wrong!”
The market being never wrong and having already priced in the rate hike — all 12 Federal Open Market Committee members voted alike. And given our having “pounded the table” for some two years that a hike was requisite, we are pleased they did it. As for any political ire, immediately after, The President — whilst a bit dour — nonetheless said of FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh: “We’ve a good man over there.” In any event, ’twill be interesting to next see August’s PCE (30 September), which is not expected to be pretty.
‘Course, as you regular readers know is our wont, rather than watch the FinMedia, we instead actually read the FOMC Policy Statement, the eye-catching sentence this time ’round being: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.“ Albeit two days post-Statement, the Conference Board yesterday (Friday) released its Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Economic Index instead indicative of shrinkage for August. We’ll view the Econ Baro in a bit, but first let’s get to Gold as this missive doth befit. And by the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, Gold did curtail its three-week losing streak in settling this past one higher (barely) at 4416, +26 points over last Friday’s 4390. Here ’tis:
“And, mmb, it finished the week higher than it was before the Fed, even though the buck also went up…”
It does fly in the face of conventional wisdom, Squire. At the very instant just before the release of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement, Gold was 4399 and the Dollar Index 99.42; from there, both were higher come Friday’s settles at 4416 and 99.95 respectively. Obviously the Dollar got the bid as post-Fed it pays more interest … but this time not at the net expense of Gold, (which as long-time readers know plays no currency favourites).
So: shall Gold’s parabolic up streak survive another week? Per the above graphic, the flip-to-Short level for the ensuing week is 4154, -262 points below present price. The expected weekly trading range high-to-low (or vice-versa) is 224 points, leaving little room for a straight-down week.
However: we sense the buyers are lurking out there. Gold’s last ten trading days have recorded four up and six down. But: the median contract volume for the four up days exceeded that of the six down days by +27%. That is called “positive moneyflow”. Lurking buyers, indeed.
But wait, there’s more. Direct from the website, we’ve constructed a two-panel graphic of Gold by the day from three months ago-to-date. On the left is price vis-à-vis its smooth BEGOS valuation line: by the oscillator, Gold may be poised to soon pass up through valuation, which across the past 25 years is a proven upside signal for still higher levels near-term. On the right we’ve Gold astride its Market Magnet, for which the interpretation is the same: price piercing above the Magnet (as has just happened) is indicative of further buying:
From the cautionary side, as we’ve been saying since the onset of the USA/IRN war, that continues to be the wildcard given a restrictive Oil supply commanding more Dollars by which Gold tends to somewhat succomb. All that noted, are we staying with our 4959 target? As long as (pun intended) “Long” remains the status of the aforeshown weekly parabolic trend, absolutely. And again as we say, a substantive up week would more comfortably keep that in play.
Which brings us to our next two-panel graphic of the daily bars, again from three months ago-to-date for Gold at left and for Silver at right. The key feature therein are the baby blue dots of 21-day linear regression trend consistency. The declining red line in both panels is that trend. And as the “Baby Blues” continue to drop, the steeper becomes the negativity of the red trendlines. Our time-honoured adage of “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” has naturally been spot on during this last month of price decline. Yet both metals during the past week deviated above the respective trendlines. But might that be “A Bridge Too Far”? –[United Artists, ’77]. For the Bulls to break through, we desire seeing the still-falling Blues returning to rising, which combined with the previous Gold panels of both its BEGOS Market Value and Market Magnets appearing more positive ought well elicit higher prices:
Moreover by their 10-day Market Profiles, both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) have recovered off their recent lows, overhead resistance not appearing as daunting as we’d lately been seeing. This in turn is why the precious metals Market Magnets (borne of the Market Profiles) have improved their stance of late in defining price consensus across the past two weeks. Current Profile supporters and resistors are as labeled:
The point is: all of these leading deMeadville metrics are near to churning favorably for Gold, especially were the war to quickly wind down (albeit doubtful) and the August PCE come in Fed-friendly (also doubtful).
Speaking of the Fed, lets now go to the Economic Barometer. Embedded therein is the FOMC Policy Statement quote of earlier note vis-à-vis the actual state of the blue Baro line:
For this past week alone, 15 metrics came into the Econ Baro of which only five improved period-over-period. (Again given the Fed’s being “behind the curve”, they likely shan’t figure that out until their 27/28 October meeting). Nevertheless stated, August’s Retail Sales were the best of the incoming bunch; but Building Permits slowed and July’s Business Inventories suffered their biggest month-over-month backup swing since those from COVID-stricken December 2021, (meaning product on balance wasn’t moving).
“And that S&P P/E of 67.2x is nuts, mmb!”
Squire, we yet again queried “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) with the exact formula, and per usual, it came up with an excuse, this time being: “I have investigated the available data sources, but I cannot yet produce a reliable calculation for all 503 constituents as of September 18, 2026.” (For those of you scoring at home, all you need is an Excel worksheet incorporating for each constituent its current price, trailing 12-month earnings, and current market-capitalization weighting within the S&P. ‘Tis so easy, a WestPalmBeacher can do it … well, maybe not…)
Of greater import, is a better up week for Gold about to unfold? Either way, ‘tis Gold one wants to hold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
18 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
Gold, Silver and the Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil: the latter’s cac volume has rolled from October into that for November with a discount of -4.60 points. Session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Gold (currently 4433) can end its three-down-weeks’ streak with a settle today above 4390 such that the ongoing weekly parabolic Long trend would still have some breathing room: more tomorrow in the 879th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The P/E of the S&P 500 is at a (futs-adj’d) stratospheric 69.1x, although eliminating CRWD from the Index reduces that to “only” 45.1x; (too, S&P shall rebalance the Index prior to Monday’s opening in welcoming three new constituents with three being removed). For the Econ Baro today we’ve August’s IndProd/CapUtil, plus the month’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
17 September 2026 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The FOMC rightly raised its Bank’s Funds Rate, the vote unanimous even as our notion was they’d perhaps wait for the August “Fed-favoured” PCE data (due 30 September). So now “post-Fed” we’ve at present seven of the eight BEGOS Markets above today’s Neutral Zones, the sole component below same being Oil as ’tis “said” the USA/IRN war may be winding down; session volatility is moderate. In going ’round the horn for the five primary BEGOS Markets in real-time we’ve: the Bond -4^22 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.033 points “low”, Gold -183 points “low”, Oil +16.04 points “high”, and the Spoo -201 points “low”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include September’s Philly Fed Index, plus August’s Housing Starts/Permits and Pending Home Sales.
16 September 2026 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
Currently, we’ve both Gold and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. As to correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is still positive between Gold and the Spoo. Our Top Three best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 15mn Parabolics, the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow and Gold’s 30mn MACD, whereas (on a 24-test basis) they are Oil’s 6hr Parabolics, again the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 6hr MACD. The Econ Baro looks to September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus July’s Business Inventories. The FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT) is widely expected to see the FedFunds interest rate target range raised from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%: we’ve been on record for some two years that it need be raised, however The Gold Update states the Committee shall stand pat pending August’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data due 30 September. Either way, expect extreme post-Statement volatility into the balance of the session.
15 September 2026 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Cac volume for the Spoo has rolled from September into that for December with +67 points of premium; the Spoo at present (7672) is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc; Oil is above same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominant overhead resistor (basis December) is 7711, and price has fallen back beneath its Market Magnet; the Spoo’s best current Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 15mn Moneyflow. As widely reported, the 10yr-T-Note yield returned to 5.000% for the first time since 20 July 2007, following which from October the S&P 500 embarked on the second of two -50% corrections century-to-date. The Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.
14 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Not surprisingly, given the Saudi pipeline disruption, Oil gapped up to the commence the session and is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst the Spoo gapped down and is below its Neutral Zone as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, the Euro notably having traced 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to the weekly parabolic trend as still Long, but that it may be in jeopardy by month’s end should the Dollar be getting the bid to purchase Oil. By Market Trends, six of the eight BEGOS components are now in negative linreg, the two positive exceptions being (of course) Oil and (barely) Copper. Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is the 6hr Parabolics, or if seeking a profit target, the 12-Hour MACD which achieved at least 35 full points (both Long and Short) through nine of the past ten crossovers beginning back on 06 May. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with 15 metrics scheduled into the balance of the week. The FOMC Policy Statement comes Wednesday: we reason in The Gold Update “no change” albeit consensus (and rightly so) is for a 25bp FedFunds rate hike.
The Gold Update: No. 878 – (12 September 2026) – “Is Gold’s Weekly Long Trend Nearing Its End?”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 878th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Is Gold’s Weekly Long Trend Nearing Its End?“
Recall upon the 14 August confirmation of Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend having — after 21 weeks — flipped back to Long at 4432, the next day we enthusiastically penned “Still Higher Gold Ahead“, that therein included the following table…
…by which we “conservatively” assessed, rationalized and summarized “…from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend…” We also used per the above table’s median +11.9% price increase the 15-week median time span to reach that target by 27 November.
“But, the trend isn’t over, mmb…”
To be sure, dear Squire, the weekly parabolic Long trend remains in force, now five weeks in duration, with price having already swiftly traveled to as high as 4755 on 25 August.
BUT: as herein directly depicted a week ago, three consecutive down weeks within a Gold weekly parabolic Long trend almost always portends its end is ’round the bend, this current trio being net losses of -3.4%, -0.6% and another -1.9% for this past week.
“Well, mmb, that middle week wasn’t really much of a down move.”
To Squire’s point, the -0.6% wee drop for the week that ended 04 September might be considered nothing more than “noise”: such net drop of just -27 points came within our expected weekly trading range of then 237 points (the actual coming in almost precisely at 229 points and price settling +147 points above the intra-week low as buyers came to the fore).
But that was then, this most recent week now having settled yesterday (Friday) at 4390, obviously below where the still Long trend had begun to ascend. Yet in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, price today is a good +275 points above the ensuing week’s flip-to-Short level of 4115, which “technically” is out-of-range given the expected weekly trading range is now 229 points. Therefore, in a week’s time, the trend “ought” still be Long … but perhaps just barely if ’tis not an up week:
Further, ’tis not “fundamentally” the happiest period for Gold. As we well know, the USA/IRN war warrants a bid for Oil to offset potential shortfalls in its availability, in turn eliciting a bid for the Buck, the attractiveness to which may also increase come Wednesday should the Federal Open Market Committee vote to raise its FundsRate quote. After all, August’s inflation picture is again heating up following the June and July stints of relative cooling. Here’s our partially-completed Summary for August:
So: shall the FOMC really raise on Wednesday? For better than two years we’ve herein pointed out ad nauseam that inflation has been running on balance well-above the Fed’s targeted +2% level, even as those in denial have instead clamoured for rate cuts; (here at deMeadville, we oft think we’re the sole entity in the fintech world that actually performs math).
“But what do you think for Wednesday, mmb?”
No change in rates, Squire, even as the European Central Bank did raise on Thursday. Yes, per the above graphic’s “Averages” row, StateSide inflation is running at double the Fed’s desired pace. Yet FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh does have a card up his sleeve to give the FOMC a reprieve for standing pat beyond this 16 September Policy Statement until the next one scheduled for 28 October: ’tis the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures, which shan’t be reported until 30 September. “Better to wait and see, you see?”
Too, there’s the political ire that a rate increase would inspire: “Well I’m sorry, but I’m going to have to shoot you.” –[Monty Python, “The Cheese Shop”, ’72] … ( just a little humour there, folks).
Thus should the FOMC maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% FedFunds rate range, that could sufficiently gird Gold into recording an up week, in turn pushing back an otherwise pending change from Long to Short trend, perhaps by month’s end. But broader-term, the war remains a pressure issue on Gold should the Dollar benefit by the Oil bid, especially if (given what is being reported) the conflict extends through next year and potentially beyond.
As to “The Now”, here we’ve Gold’s two-panel chart featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Those of you who follow our daily Prescient Commentary have already been aware of the anticipated rotation for Gold’s 21-day regression trend from positive to negative, which was confirmed at Thursday’s close. ‘Tis denoted in the graphic by the baby blue dots of trend consistency having passed below their 0% axis. And with respect to the Profile, there is now significant overhead volume-dominant resistance spanning from 4414 up to 4471; it doesn’t look like a lot of fun:
Such is the similar state of Silver, having settled the week at 65.02. Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are on the cusp of the regression trend rotating from positive to negative. By her Profile (below right), volume resistance runs up into the 66s and 67s. Jim Diamond’s ’86 hit “Hi Ho Silver” is instead appearing rather “Lowdown”–(Chicago, ’71). C’mon, ol’ Sister Silver…
Looking next to the Economic Barometer, what a month ago was approaching a seemingly ceaseless slump has since regained some “grunt in the lump”, (F1 expression for engine power). Across the past four weeks, 46 metrics have come into the Baro of which 28 (61%) have equaled or bettered their respective prior period results, notable standouts including Payrolls, Durable and Factory Orders, Building Permits, Consumer Credit, and the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. ‘Course, the spanner in the works is inflation: the second of what shall be three readings on Q2 Gross Domestic Product recorded 81% of the topline +7.9% annualized growth rate as inflation, (the net “real” being just +1.5%). Query: “Gold Gold?” Here we’ve got the Baro:
Toward our wrap, here’s the Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4463
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4456
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4414 / 4442 / 4471
Gold Currently: 4390, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 115 points)
Trading Support: nearby Market Profile notables: 4380 / 4356
10-Session directional range: down to 4331 (from 4678) = -347 points or -7.4%
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4269 and rising
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 4115
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3992
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
And thus we close with just the briefest of questions: Has the S&P crashed yet? Just asking.
As noted in the Econ Baro graphic, “S&P 8000” has been bandied about, notably at very highly-visible investment banks due to (as we quote from “AI“) “strong corporate earnings”. If earnings are so “strong”, then why at this writing is the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (trailing 12-months basis) at 60.8x? (For those of you scoring at home, that is 4x the “acceptable high” of 15x taught in portfolio theory).
“Yeah, mmb, but if you take out just CrowdStrike, it drops to 44.1x.”
Squire, ’tis a good point as that company’s P/E settled the week at 5,584.9x, its market capitalization of $211.3B ranking 54th of the 503 constituents comprising the S&P; (or for you WestPalmBeachers down there: paying $206.64 for a stock that earns $0.04 per share is the equivalent of paying $5,584.90 for something that earns $1.00. “Got CRWD?” We hope not).
Indeed, from the deMeadville Valuation & Rankings page, here are our Top Ten goofball P/Es right now:
Sleeping well with those “strong corporate earnings”?
Lower Gold perhaps in our stead, make sure yours is your bed!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
11 September 2026 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
Into the 25th anniversary of “9/11” we’ve Gold, Copper and the Spoo all at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s falling “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed the linreg’s rotation from positive to negative; price appears poised to record a third straight down week within the overall weekly parabolic Long trend: more on that in tomorrow’s 878th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s -4.8% net loss yesterday ranks third-worst year-to-date; Silver’s drop of -5.7% was its worst day since 24 June (-6.73%). The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 61.4x, albeit removing CRWD reduces that to “only” 44.3x, (still triple that taught as “high” in portfolio theory); and the “risk-full” yield is 1.097% vs. the “risk-less” 4.280% on the 1yr T-Bill. The Econ Baro looks to August’s CPI and Treasury Budget, as well as September’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
10 September 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Both the Swiss Franc and Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is light. Yesterday, each of the Euro, Gold and Silver moved above their most volume-dominant Market Profile resistors, albeit the Bond dropped below that which had been support. Such noted, Gold in real-time (as anticipated earlier this week) finds its 21-day linreg having rotated to negative (see Market Trends); that for Silver, the Euro and Swiss Franc remain only marginally positive, even as the Dollar has been weakening across the last several trading days; and over these next two trading days, cac volume for the Currencies shall be moving from September into that for December. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s PPI and Existing Home Sales, plus July’s Wholesale Inventories.
09 September 2026 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Euro and Copper yesterday moved back above their Market Magnets, suggestive of higher levels near-term; moving below its Magnet was the Spoo, its next volume-dominant supporter being 7644 should 7681 fall away into a down day, (see Market Profiles). Gold and the Spoo continue to maintain our best correlation (positive) amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Gold’s top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its daily price Oscillator and (on a 24-test basis) its 6hr MACD; for the Spoo ’tis the 2hr Parabolics by both bases. Ahead of inflation data both tomorrow and Friday, nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.
08 September 2026 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, now with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are both Gold and the Spoo, and overall session volatility has expanded to mostly robust. In going ’round the horn of the five primary BEGOS components by their Market Values, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond -3^20 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.017 points “low”, Gold +63 points “high”, Oil +9.85 points “high” and the Spoo -130 points “low”. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue dropping for both Gold and Silver, albeit not (yet) below their 0% axes: recall for Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend we’re seeking 4900, the high thus far being 4755 prior to the more recent selling, (price now 4447, yet only mildly lower for the week thus far). Late in the session comes July’s Consumer Credit for the Econ Baro.
07 September 2026 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
‘Tis a two-day Tuesday-settlement session for the BEGOS Markets; given the StateSide holiday, trading halts begin today from 17:00 GMT (with resumption as usual at 22:00 GMT). At present, Oil is above the session’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Gold; volatility is expectedly light. The Gold Update suggests should price put in a third consecutive down week that the weekly parabolic Long trend may soon be approaching an end, (although for this week, a flip to Short were 4074 to trade is well out of expected range); currently 4441, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 4482; too in real-time, price is +60 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and by Market Trends, we may see Gold’s 21-day linreg rotate to negative by week’s end. ‘Tis “inflation week” for the Econ Baro, the August PPI due Thursday and the CPI come Friday.
The Gold Update: No. 877 – (05 September 2026) – “Gold’s Recent Rally is Weakening … But an Up Week Can Right It”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 877th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 September 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s Recent Rally is Weakening … But an Up Week Can Right It“
We open with the yucky, wokey noun “awareness”, as ’tis increasing of late with respect to acknowledging the money to cover that which is owed isn’t there … a very Gold positive.
To wit, let’s start straightaway with this from the “A.I. On Your Side Dept.” Ready?
Our A.I. Query –> “Concern: The U.S. federal debt is $40T; the S&P 500 market capitalization is $68T; but the liquid money supply to support it (the total being $108T) is only $23T. What is the end-game?”
The A.I. Response –> “Your math highlights a classic economic puzzle … creating an apparent shortfall. However, … it is the natural state of a highly developed financial system. The “end-game” is … a complex balancing act managed through monetary velocity, debt rollovers, and asset valuation dynamics.“
Our Logical Reaction –> “GOT GOLD?!?!?!“
“That is really scary, mmb…”
Scary, indeed, Squire. ‘Tis the greatest game of “Chicken” in the history of the world. Who shall first blink? “Uhhh… can you pay us in something other than Dollars?” Headline: “World Ends, Dow +2”. Just something upon which to chew amongst you StateSiders at your long Labor Day Weekend BBQs.
As to the week just past, not much was cookin’ on the grill for Gold. ‘Twas its second consecutive down week, wherein the support structure we cited a week ago (4509-4366) was overshot, price having traded Wednesday to as low as 4329, before rebounding to settle yesterday (Friday) at 4477, although still -0.6% (-27 points) net for the week.
“But what if price goes down again for next week, mmb?”
Superb question, Squire. Gold decade-to-date is now in its 14th weekly parabolic Long trend. With but one exception (from November 2021 into March 2022), a third consecutive down week likely portends the end to the trend. Rather, we’d like to consider these past two down weeks as merely a pause in the upside action. But in facing the fundamentals, the war remains a Gold negative upon the Dollar getting 1) a bid to purchase Oil and 2) a bid for better (i.e. higher) yield. ‘Course, ’tis not yet next week. However, either way, here we’ve Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend having completed a fourth week. “Up, please?”
Even were Gold to put in a third consecutive down week, it reasonably would not be enough to (at least initially) flip the above trend from Long to Short: the distance from here (4477) to the flip level (4074) is -403 points, whereas the expected weekly trading range is now “only” 237 points, (the daily being 115 points). Regardless, as Quarrel the Cayman Islander said to James Bond: “It don’t do for a man to tempt Providence too often.” –[Dr. No, United Artists, ’62]. On verra, ya…
Specific to Gold vis-à-vis its BEGOS Markets’ smooth valuation line, we’ve updated the year-over-year graphic as presented two missives ago with the three oscillator red peak lines. As you’ll recall, we were becoming a bit wary over price getting too far afield from its BEGOS Market Value. Indeed, since the last swing peak at 4755 on 25 August (valuation then 4175, i.e. +580 points “high”), price through this past week’s low marked a -9.0% drop (-426 points), albeit by the Oscillator, Gold today (4477) still is +119 points above this valuation metric (4358) as we next see:
Further, should Gold trade down through the smooth valuation line, the proven rule (rather than the exception) is to anticipate still lower prices near-term. And in turning to our two-panel daily graphic across the past three months of Gold on the left and of Silver on the right, we see for both metals the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency having accelerated their respective falls from a week ago: should the “Baby Blues” eclipse below the 0% axes, the 21-day trends shall have rotated from positive to negative. Note therein the horizontal green lines: they describe the structural support zones, which as mentioned Gold briefly violated mid-week, but within which Silver remains (66.98-62.45). Nonetheless as we on occasion quip: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.” But as well discern that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.” Here’s the graphic:
Next, the 10-day market Profiles for both the yellow (at left) and white (at right) metals find price just below their respective midpoints. For Gold, the 4650-4694 span appears resistive, whilst same for Sister Silver is 68.80-69.95. Other volume-dominant prices are as labeled:
As for the Economic Barometer, ’twas buoyed this past week by Labor’s take on August employment, the +162k net Payrolls increase four times that expected, with July’s number also being revised from shrinkage to growth. ‘Course, by ADP’s measuring, August employment slowed from July as well as missed consensus. So in which reporting entity do you believe? The ADP number is of course geared toward private jobs growth rather than that for public, although Labor’s own private measure (unlike ADP’s) was also very positive. Also boosting the Baro were Factory Orders, having swung from June shrinkage (-0.2%) to July growth (+0.9%).
Looking to the Federal Reserve, the countdown to the Open Market Committee’s next Policy Statement is just seven trading days (16 September), within which we’ll next week get both wholesale and retail inflation data for August. Shall such measures remain benign for a third straight month such as to keep the Fed at bay? Let’s see what the numbers say, even as the Baro is making some headway, with our old “marked-to-market millionaire” buddies still at play as “crash season” prey, (should it turn out that way):
To close, as herein put forth a week ago, we’re not predicting an imminent crash for the S&P 500, albeit ’tis “crash season” and the “earningless n’ yieldless” Index is wildly overdue for one. In updating our numbers from a year ago, the first 25 Septembers thus far this century — when combined — amount to a -30.9% decline for the S&P, even as October tends hold the dubious distinctions of Black Tuesday (’29), Black Monday (’87) and (within the FinCrisis) Black Wednesday (’08). Then, too, there’s ol’ Black Swanee. When might he come floating by?
Make sure you’ve Gold when the rest go bye-bye!
Cheers!
…m…
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04 September 2026 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is presently the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. Support has held well for the precious metals this week; that stated, by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver as their respective uptrends weaken; more tomorrow, of course, in the 877th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a firm day across all eight BEGOS Markets: of note therein with respect to Market Profiles, each of the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo moved above what been their most volume-dominant overhead resistors; too, the Spoo recovered above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro raps its week with August’s Payrolls data as StateSide stocks move into the Labor Day Weekend, (the BEGOS Markets nonetheless trading an abbreviated Monday session for Tuesday settlement).
03 September 2026 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. By Market Rhythms, our Top Three for pure swing consistency are (on the 10-test run) the Bond’s 4hr Parabolics, Oil’s 1hr Parabolics, and Gold’s daily Moneyflow; too, (on the 24-test run) are Gold’s 1hr Moneyflow, Oil’s 6hr Parabolics and Copper’s 1hr MACD. The Spoo yesterday made another marginal one-month low at 7619: currently 7675, there is volume-dominant Market Profile support at 7644, with resistance running from 7686 up to 7698; and by its BEGOS Market Value, the Spoo is (in real-time) -129 points below its smooth valuation line (itself 7805). Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s ISM(Svc) Index, July’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.