27 May 2024 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets is underway, (for Tuesday settlement given the StateSide holiday). The precious metals are getting the bid, both Gold and Silver at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS components are within same, and volatility expectedly is quite light: only Silver has thus far traced in excess of 50% (55%) of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update acknowledges the most recent All-Time High (2454) as being at best “marginal” and cites what have become “habitual” moves lower typically following such post-COVID highs. The S&P 500 settled Friday as 13 days “textbook overbought”: the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro anticipates just nine incoming metrics as the week unfolds, including on Friday the “Fed-favoured” PCE for April.

The Gold Update: No. 758 – (25 May 2024) – “Gold’s Marginal High and Habitual Cry”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 758th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 May 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold’s Marginal High and Habitual Cry

We start with this from the “Pat on the Back Dept.”  Per the prior missive penned a week ago (“Another Gold All-Time High is Nigh”), ’twas therein stated that Gold (then 2420) was exhibiting sufficiently daily trading range such that one could reasonably expect a fresh All-Time High (above 2449) to occur as soon as last Monday … which is precisely what happened, the yellow metal trading up to 2454 … but that was it.

So let’s thus transit from that department to the “Pass the Hankie Dept.” as Gold’s new All-Time High was at best “marginal”.  And All-Time Highs recorded by Gold since at least the COVID years-to-date have then — oft with promptness — seen price go through “habitual” selling.  To wit:  following Monday’s 2454 high, the yellow metal this past week hastily traded down -128 points to as low as 2326 before settling yesterday (Friday) at 2335.  So yes, you may cry.

Yet we offer this broader-based solace.  Century-to-date, Gold has amassed 5,887 trading days, of which All-Time Highs have been registered on 268 occasions.  For those of you scoring at home, that means across these past 24 calendar years, Gold averages a fresh All-Time High every 22 trading days, which essentially is once per month, albeit that is far from linear:  for the nearly nine-year stint from 07 September 2011 to 27 July 2020, nary an All-Time High was notched, price in that duration dropping as much as -46% down to 1045 on 03 December 2015.

‘Course more recently, not every incremental All-Time Gold High since the COVID outbreak in 2020 has then been swiftly sold off.  And yet, an inevitably habitual pattern of selling certainly is made manifest by the following chronological table of just how far Gold — following a run of All-Time Highs — has then declined within one month:

 

And the low row in the above table reflects last Monday’s All-Time High at 2454.  Note therein the decline with only four trading days having since passed, price already having come off by as much as -5.2%.

Now hardly are we bearish on Gold:  but ‘twould not be untoward to see price glide lower still given Gold having just crossed below our Market Values “smooth valuation line” for the first time since 28 February.  As you seasoned website followers know, eclipsing that line to the downside (be it for any of the five primary markets which comprise BEGOS, i.e. the Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P) regularly leads to further selling as we below show.  Note this latest negative price crossover as encircled in red, (the lower panel oscillator being price less valuation):

Specific to the current crossover, ’twas confirmed as of Thursday’s close at 2331.  Year-over-year, ’tis the ninth such downside crossover.  For the prior eight, the average negative penetration within one month is -65 points, (the median being -56 points).  Thus in that vacuum alone, we’d see Gold 2275-2266 over the near term.  ‘Course, rarely is “average” reality:  there is pricing congestion for Gold from 2364-2285 to at least initially limit any truly material downside from here (2335).  Still, we’re again placing for perspective purposes the underlying structural support zone of 2247-2171 on Gold’s weekly bars graphic — the crybabies notwithstanding — from one year ago-to-date.  (Note at lower-right an Investing Age of Stoopid intruder…):

“Yeah, it snuck right past me, mmb

Well, Squire, they’ll do anything and everything to convince you to dump Gold for “GameFlop” (GME, p/e 950x).  But true to ongoing form, such Investing Age of Stoopid continues to run its inevitably-ending course, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) now 39.4x and yield 1.380% versus the U.S. annualized three-month rate of 5.245%.  The S&P’s market-capitalization is now $46.3T supported by a liquid U.S. Money Supply (M2) of only $21.3T.  ‘Course when you WestPalmBeachers are sufficiently shaken to sell along with the rest of the herd, your brokers shall all be good for the money, right?  (Recall, too, the ten stock market crash catalysts itemized in Gold Update no. 712 from last 08 July:  today, all ten remain firmly bona fide).

Speaking of crash catalysts, we’ve some good news as regards the StateSide economy.  Incoming metrics this past week for the Economic Barometer were so sparse (just five inputs), that it suffered limited additional damage.  Next week is again rather light as well with just nine metrics due, notably including the Fed-favoured inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures for April which is not expected to have slowed from March’s annualized pace of +3.6%.  But net-net by consensus, the Baro looks to be lower still in a week’s time as stagflation creeps ‘cross the nation:

Hardly was Gold’s decline this past week at a crawl.  The yellow metal’s net two-day drop (from Tuesday’s settle at 2425 to that for Thursday at 2331) was -94 points:  that ranks ninth-worst by points for any two-day span century-to date; (the like -3.9% drop has been worse on many two-day occasions, the most extreme being -13.3% in mid-April 2013).  Still, the week’s fallout was enough to drive price from nearly the top of its 10-day Market Profile toward the bottom per the below right hand panel.  The left-hand panel of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date depicts the baby blue dots of trend consistency having just turned lower.  Again as aforementioned, the 2364-2285 area is price-congestive, and thus for now, supportive:

As for Silver, her two-day (Tue-Thu) drop was -5.8%.  But unlike Gold, hardly did she hoover her whole Market Profile, basically finishing in the center of that two-week stack (below right).  Too, her “Baby Blues” have (yet) to lurch lower per the three-month stint (below left).  Indeed ’tis heartening to see Silver Silver getting some degree of respect lately.  Further, she remains quite cheap relative to Gold, even as the Gold/Silver ratio (as noted a week ago) has moved sub-80x.  Today ’tis 76.5x … however the century-to-date average is 68.3x.  So priced at that average with Gold at 2335 today, Silver would be +12% higher than her current 30.54 level at 34.21:

Our takeaway is:  ‘twould be folly not to anticipate lower Gold prices near-term.  In addition to price having just crossed beneath the aforeshown smooth valuation line, we’ve the following technical negatives:  Gold’s daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short effective yesterday’s open as did the MACD (moving average convergence divergence); the daily Price Oscillator is dwindling and the Moneyflow is nearing a cross from inflow to outflow.

Still, with prudent cash management always paramount — and acknowledging that “shorting Gold is a bad idea” — let’s wrap with the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3769
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2454 (20 May 2024)
2024’s High:  2454 (20 May 2024)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2430 (20 May 2024)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2385
Trading Resistance
:  various per the Profile from here at 2335 up to 2440
Gold Currently:  2335, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 38 points)
10-Session directional range:  down to 2326 (from 2454) = -128 points or -5.2%
Trading Support
:  none per the Profile
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2263
Structural Support:  2247-2171
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2046 and rising
2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

‘Course the bottom line is, regardless of its marginal high but then habitual cry, don’t miss out when Gold goes to the sky!

  
 
Cheers!
 
 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

24 May 2024 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

The precious metals are getting a grip, both Gold and Silver at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is quite light ahead of the StateSide long weekend. In recent years, Gold after recording All-Time Highs has habitually, indeed materially, pulled back somewhat swiftly: more on that in tomorrow’s 758th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; too, the yellow metal finally has returned to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 28 February. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (in real-time) kinked lower (but not so much as to yet penetrate their key +80% axis); still the S&P itself technically remains “textbook overbought” and is overwhelming expensive given its cap-weighted lack of earnings support. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with metrics including April’s Durable Orders.

23 May 2024 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

Following what we’d now classify as Gold’s “marginal” All-Time High on Monday (at 2452), the yellow metal has since been in sell mode (at present 2364), and along with Silver (30.545) is below today’s Neutral Zone; the Spoo is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Such selling has dutifully brought down the Market Value excess we’ve had for Gold for nearly three full months: price (in real-time) is now +20 points above its smooth valuation line; a month ago the deviation was +200 points. “Over-valued” too by such metric is the Spoo (+230 points) whilst “under-valued” we’ve Oil -5.78 points. Specific to our S&P MoneyFlow page, the three-month differential of Flow relative to the Index (per that page’s lower-right panel) has developed a detectably negative bent to it. The Econ Baro’s incoming metrics today include April’s New Home Sales.

22 May 2024 – 08:24 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve both the Bond and Copper below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Silver has quieted a bit relative to its ranginess into this week: indeed by Market Ranges, the white metal’s EDTR is now 0.99 points, (whereas last September ’twas as low as 0.46 points). The S&P 500 is now 10 consecutive days “textbook overbought”: the “live” (fut’s-adj’d) P/E is 40.4x and the yield 1.369% versus an annualized 5.240% on risk-free U.S. 3-month dough. One wonders for how much longer the investing herd shall continue seeking unrealistic capital gains rather than equities reasonably priced by earnings support: mind our S&P 500 Valuation and Rankings page. The Econ Baro awaits April’s Existing Home Sales; and the Fed releases the 30 Apr-01May FOMC meeting minutes.

21 May 2024 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate as well as Oil are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, again save for Silver which today already has traced 153% of its EDTR; quietest is the Spoo with just a 10% tracing and nothing due for the Econ Baro. Following Gold’s new All-Time High yesterday (2452), price has backed off: still per Market Values, the yellow metal is (in real-time at 2419) +79 points above its smooth valuation line. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its 12hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) its 30mn Moneyflow; on a profit-taking basis, Gold’s daily Parabolics have reached follow-through of $2,700/cac in nine of the past 10 swings as listed on the Market Rhythms page; that, too, is the Rhythm featured on the Gold page.

20 May 2024 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

Gold has recorded another All-Time High this morning: The Gold Update mused it could happen as soon as today, and so it has, the intra-day high at present 2454, with price above its Neutral Zone as ’tis too for both Silver and the Euro; the other BEGOS Markets are within same. Session volatility is moderate, albeit specifically robust for Silver which already has traced 139% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Q1 Earnings Season has completed: for the S&P 500, 64% of reported constituents bettered the bottom lines over Q1 of a year ago, a somewhat sub-par performance given improvement (ex-COVID quarters) averages 69%; whilst the “live” P/E of the S&P was reduced from 46.1x, the current (futs-adj’d) 40.0x remains a dangerously high level. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the otherwise plunging Econ Baro: just five metrics are due, none until Wednesday.

The Gold Update: No. 757 – (18 May 2024) – “Another Gold All-Time High is Nigh”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 757th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 May 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Another Gold All-Time High is Nigh

One week ago we herein opened with this query:  “Is Gold’s near-term correction completed?”  Given the yellow metal’s upside price action since then, we can now answer in the affirmative, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “Yes”).

As for employing the word “Another” in this week’s title, ’twasn’t that long ago in milestone missive No. 700 (15 April 2023 with Gold then 2018) we wrote “Gold:  The Next All-Time High is Nigh“, which of course obviously came to pass, indeed on 16 daily occasions since then.  Now Gold is merely on go to do it again.

Our Mighty Metal settled at an All-Time Weekly Closing High yesterday (Friday) at 2420, just -29 points shy of the most recent All-Time Intra-Day High of 2449 this past 12 April.  Further, given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” (per the website’s Market Ranges page) is 36 points, price is within such range of reasonably reaching above 2449 as soon as Monday, (just in case you’re scoring at home).

True, a week ago — at least technically — we were reserved about Gold’s then imminent direction, price having completed a perfect Golden Ratio retracement, from which at 2386 it swiftly sank in the new week to 2338.  To wit as we penned in Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary:  “…until the former clears … the Golden Ratio retracement … the recent near-term correction would technically remain in place…”  But having then since risen higher still, there’s really not that much pricing congestion now between here (2420) and there (2449).

“And so the question becomes ‘How high is high?’, right mmb?

That is a critical knowledge point there, Squire.  To be sure, Gold has already surpassed our forecast high for this year upon achieving 2375 this past 09 April; (recall such prognosis having been made last 30 December in “Gold – We Conservatively Forecast 2375 for 2024’s High”).

Yet to Squire’s query as to “How high is high?”at least fundamentally — we can see per the opening Gold Scoreboard that by Dollar debasement (even accounting for the annual increase in the supply of Gold itself), we’ve the yellow metal’s value at 3767, or +56% above today’s “lowly” price at 2420.

But given this ceaseless Investing Age of Stoopid wherein — save for central/sovereign banks — Gold is considered “passé”, determining the inevitable “when” for 3767 (and beyond) is subjective.  The art of designing Fibonacci retracements per our prior missive may be one thing:  but, the art of future Fibonacci extensions we leave to you “seers” out there.

Either way, ’tis a pleasant gaze at the past via this view of Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, again the rightmost nub being an All-Time Weekly Closing High.  Indeed through these first 20 trading weeks of 2024, this past one ranks fifth-best by both points (+53) and percentage (+2.2%) gains.  As for the more skeptical amongst you — and price is arguably “too high” above the rising dashed regression trendline —  we’ve again depicted the green-bounded 2247-2171 structural support zone, within which is the current “flip to Short” price of 2236.  (But let’s not go there…)

And no, that Gold/Silver ratio at the foot of the above graphic is not a typo:  76.2x champions Silver’s stellar week wherein price rose +3.27 points (+11.5%), the white metal’s best weekly gain by both measures since that ending 07 August 2020.  ‘Tis why we oft quip:  “Don’t forget Sister Silver!”

Whilst speaking of metals, surely you saw Copper having reached its own All-Time High at $5.128/pound this past Wednesday, which may give further boost toward Gold’s next All-Time High.  For be it lore, or substantively more, ’tis said the red metal leads the yellow metal.  Here are their respective daily percentage tracks decade-to-date:  just one of those things that makes you go “Hmmmm…”

But next we go to something guaranteed to make you go “Ugghh…”:  the stagflating StateSide Economic Barometer.  Its outright dump just in this past week is the worst for such stint since April a year ago.  Moreover:  for the nearly 26 calendar years that we’ve maintained the Econ Baro, such five-day fall ranks in the 99th percentile of worst plunges.  Here’s the year-over year view:

‘Course, this can make Gold quite happy, for now the Federal Reserve must be forced to cut its Bank’s Funds rate … except that April’s just-reported inflation numbers belie that notion.  First at the wholesale level (Producer Price Index) the 12-month summation is spot-on the Fed’s +2.0% target … except that April’s pace annualized was +6.0%.  Second at the retail level (Consumer Price Index), it slowed by one percentage pip … except that the 12-month summation is well above target at +3.2% (and +3.7% core), with April alone annualized at +3.6%.  And by now you well know the formula:

  • Inflation + Shrinkage = Stagflation

“But mmb, is it really fair to say the economy is actually shrinking?

As opposed to its growth merely slowing, Squire?  We shan’t see the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ first read of Q2 Gross Domestic Product until late July.  And already per their initial Q1 read, the annualized pace fell from +3.4% to just +1.6%.  As well, the Conference Board’s “U.S. Leading Economic Index” (which we regularly quip is in fact “lagging” given the Econ Baro is always well ahead of it) has reported only one month of growth (for February of this year) since March of 2022(!)  Is it any wonder the broad tilt of the above Baro is negative?  No, ’tisn’t.

However, we sense what “is” is a fresh Gold high soon nigh.  Let’s go to the two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and same for Silver on the right.  Therein per the baby blue dots of trend consistency, our thought is that present upside price momentum can pull the “Baby Blues” for both precious metals up above their respective +80% axes.  Again, “Follow the Blues…”:

 

Also we’ve the two-panel graphic of the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right).  Whether marching or looking up toward higher highs, ’tis what our analysis implies:

Let’s wrap with our assessment of Q1 Earnings Season.  As just ended “by the calendar”, for the S&P 500 — which also set a record high on Thursday at 5325 — we count 439 constituents having reported.  Of those, 64% improved their bottom lines over Q1 of a year ago, (meaning that 36% did not so do).  Excluding the four COVID quarters of 2020, the average year-over-year improvement runs ’round 69%:  thus this past Earnings Season might be couched as rather sub-par.  Yet upon its start back on 08 April, the S&P was 5204 and its “live” price/earnings ratio 46.1x.  Today they are respectively 5303 and 39.9x:  so some relative progress was made there in getting the p/e down a bit.  Yet by any historical yardstick — especially in this positive interest rate environment — the p/e of 39.9x remains treacherously (understatement) high.

‘Course, ’tis made all the more complicated by this, (hat-tip Hedgeye’s hilarious Bob Rich):

 

So goodness gracious, with a new high nigh, stay gripped to Gold … and Silver bold!

Cheers!
 
 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

17 May 2024 – 08:16 Central Euro Time

‘Tis a fairly quiet start to Friday on the heels of a heavy week of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, itself in a rather severe plunge. At present, just Copper is outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light, the red metal being the only component having thus far traced in excess of 50% (55%) of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components (real-time readings): the Bond is nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.02 points “high”, Gold +56 points “high”, Oil -3.6 points “low”, and the Spoo +205 points “high”, the S&P itself having extended its “textbook overbought” stance through a seventh consecutive trading day. The Econ Baro completes it significantly down week with April’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. And today is the final day of Q1 Earnings Season, which for the S&P 500 has been somewhat sub-par by year-over-year growth.

16 May 2024 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

Following all-time highs yesterday for both Copper and Spoo (including the S&P 500 itself), we’ve at present all eight BEGOS Markets inside their respective Neutral Zones for today, ahead of another heavy round of incoming EconData; volatility is moderate. For the S&P, the combination of a new high and below-par Q1 Earnings Season growth has pushed the “live” P/E back above 40x, the futs-adj’d level now 40.5x; the Index is now at an extreme “textbook overbought” reading. As to the Euro, recall from earlier in the prior week our having noted per the Market Values page the currency’s having crossed above its smooth valuation line such that price by that leading indicative method could make a run toward the 1.10s: then ’twas in the 1.07s, having since traded up into the 1.09s. As for the Econ Baro, amongst today’s metrics are May’s Philly Fed Index, April’s Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

15 May 2024 – 08:36 Central Euro Time

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; the red metal continues to be in play, having already traced 146% of its EDTR (see Market ranges); otherwise, session volatility for the other components is light with a bevy of EconData in the day’s balance. Looking at Market Trends we’ve only two with negative linregs: Gold and Oil; until the former clears at least 2385 (the Golden Ratio retracement cited in the current edition of The Gold Update), the recent near-term correction would technically remain in place; Gold at present is 2362 and its EDTR is 35 points. The Econ Baro’s busy day looks to May’s NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Index, plus April’s reads on retail inflation (CPI) and Retail Sales.

14 May 2024 – 08:25 Central Euro Time

Both Silver and Copper are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility pre-StateSide inflation data is very light. Of the 405 Market Rhythms we test nightly, Copper (on a 10-test swing basis) is leading for consistency by its 30mn MACD; second-best is Gold’s 12hr Parabolics; too (on a 24-test swing basis) Copper’s 1hr MACD leads for consistency, followed again by its 30mn MACD. As well, Copper is the only BEGOS Market for which its EDTR (see Market Ranges) widened yesterday both day-over-day and week-over-week: thus vis-à-vis the whole bunch, Copper is most in play. And as noted, today the Econ Baro awaits April’s inflation at the wholesale level (PPI).

13 May 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

The week begins with Gold at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update inconclusively questions as to whether or not the yellow metal’s recent correction off its All-Time High (2449 on 12 April) has run its course: Gold’s rally this past week went precisely up to the perfect Golden Ratio fib retracement at 2385 (from the correction’s low [thus far?] of 2285), but has since pulled back (now 2358); too, by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +54 points above its smooth valuation line, and by Market Trends, the linreg remains negative. Whilst the Econ Baro is quiet today, a very busy week awaits with 18 metrics due, including those for April’s wholesale (PPI) and retail (CPI) inflation. As well, this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season, which by year-over-year comparison has been rather mediocre (and thus is why the P/E of the S&P remains treacherously high, the “live” reading 39.2x).

The Gold Update: No. 756 – (11 May 2024) – “Gold Garners a Groovy Golden Ratio Retracement”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 756th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 May 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Garners a Groovy Golden Ratio Retracement

Is Gold’s near-term correction completed?  If so, it lasted 16 trading days spanning from the recent All-Time High of 2449 (12 April) down to 2285 (04 May), a loss of -164 points or -6.7%.

Moreover, renewed buying interest in Gold did not even let price reach down to test the 2247-2171 structural support zone, (which of course remains a viable consideration).  But Gold buyers clearly came to the fore these past few days as COMEX contract volume recorded its fifth-most substantive week in well over a year, (indeed going back to that ending 20 March ’23).

So after two consecutive losing weeks, Gold scored a winner in settling yesterday (Friday) at 2367, its highest weekly close since that ending 19 April (then 2414), where upon we straightaway penned “Gold Fit to Pull Back a Bit” which it so did lickety-split.  (That courtesy of the “We Hate It When We’re Right Dept.”)

As for the entitled “…Groovy Golden Ratio Retracement”, ’twas quintessentially Fibonacci perfection for Gold on Friday.  Now as you long-time advocates of The Gold Update know, hardly do we ever dwell upon nature’s pristine paragon of numerical sequencing as uncovered by Leonardo Bigollo “Fibonacci” Pisano away back into the turn of the 13th Century.  Yet on occasion, that infamous 61.8% Golden Ratio as determined by The Fibster can elicit astonishing precision for markets’ price reversals.

Simple stated for those of you scoring at home, as noted, Gold’s All-Time High is 2449 and the low since then 2285.  The 61.8% Golden Ratio retracement from that low back up toward the high is 2386:  ’twas the precise high Gold reached on Friday before settling at the classic 50% retracement price of 2367.  Perfection personified.  To wit, look at the rightmost candle per this view of Gold’s daily bars from March-to-date, yesterday’s high at the 0.618 label and the close at the 0.500 label.  A worthy tool to keep under your cash management hat:

‘Course, the question then remains:  has the near-term downside Gold correction run its course?  Or is the perfect Fibonacci Golden Ratio retracement and subsequent same-day pullback signaling the resumption of such downside?  To be sure, Gold’s daily “textbook technicals” (MACD, Price Oscillator, Moneyflow) — which a week ago were leaning lower — are just now bending up a bit.  And yet per both the website’s Market Values and Gold pages, price is still +69 points above its smooth valuation line, (it has not been below same since 28 February).  Also fundamentally, in a week almost completely bereft of incoming metrics for the Economic Barometer, save for some arguably “hawkish” FedSpeak to end said week, there’s really not that much upon which to critique.  Yet as we all know, “the trend is your friend”, and as we next go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, both the rising dashed linear regression trendline and blue-dotted parabolic Long trend look great.  Warily however, prior to Gold next scoring a fresh All-Time High at 2450+, it may be a bit premature to start dancing to The Chipmunks Funky Monkey:

Speaking of the Econ Baro, here ’tis by the day from one year ago-to-date along with the obscenely overvalued “Casino 500” (red line), the honestly-calculated “live” price/earnings ratio for which is now 39.1x and the yield 1.404% versus the U.S. Three-Month T-Bill’s annualized yield of 5.243%.  But since fee-churning is everything to your investment banker, “Stocks are where it’s at, baby!”  (Friendly reminder:  lock-limit down for the S&P 500 futures is -7%, the last three such occurrences coming astride COVID back in March 2020):

Oooh, and guess to what word the financial community is finally awakening?  “Stagflation”. Thus far in 2024, we first mentioned it ten missives ago on 02 March with “Gold Grabs Center-Stage as Stagflation Starts to Rage”.  But in this age where no one does the math to be properly informed, it takes awhile for “stagflation” to get parroted up to the higher echelons of the FinMedia.  To wit yesterday, (hat-tip Bloomy):  “S&P 500 Runs Out of Steam Amid Stagflation Chatter.”

As for running out of steam (really?), the S&P has gained better than +4% in just the past seven trading sessions, (yes, it has again become “textbook overbought”).  And with but a week to run in Earnings Season for Q1, growth hasn’t materially improved (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means in this case hasn’t “lowered”) the aforementioned P/E of the S&P.  “Stagflation” indeed:  coming to an economic squeeze near you. Further, with 18 metrics due in the new week for the Econ Baro, we’ll know more on the staging of “stagflation”.

Clearly staging a rally into week’s end was Gold.  To our two panel graphic we go featuring on the left Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date and on the right price’s 10-day Market Profile.  Note the sudden up-lurch in the “Baby Blues”, (and you know the drill:  “Follow the Blues… else…”).  Meanwhile by the Profile, Gold’s fattest volume support price is 2324:

With the like graphic for Silver, her “Baby Blues” (at left) already have been lurching higher, with present price just tucked in there above the 28.35 Profile bar (at right).  As earlier noted in the graphic of Gold’s weekly bars, the Gold/Silver ratio is now 83.4x versus the century-to-date average of 68.2x, i.e. Silver comparatively remains El Cheapo, (and Gold markedly so by currency debasement, in turn making Silver Super Cheapo).  So don’t you be a Cheapo by forgetting Sister Silver!

Toward the wrap, let’s go to the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3765
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2449 (12 April 2024)
2024’s High:  2449 (12 April 2024)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2391 (11 April 2024)
10-Session directional range:  up to 2386 (from 2285) = +101 points or +4.4%
Trading Resistance
:  2374
Gold Currently:  2367, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 37 points)
Trading Support:  various from 2333 to 2298, most notably therein 2324
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2328
Structural Support:  2247-2171
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2213
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2028 and rising
2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

“So, mmb, we got your closer ready to go!

And thank you, Squire, ’tis as rich as they come.  We’ll spare (to benevolently save embarrassment) such pundit’s identity, but here we go.  Ready?  Hat-tip Dow Jones Newswires from last Monday:

  • Gold is overvalued now and won’t help you beat inflation in coming years.”

(Even the “doggy” can’t believe that one!)

Write it down and diarize to review, given ever-groovy Gold 3700+ is already overdue!

Cheers!
 
 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

10 May 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

The Metals Triumvirate is on the move this morning as Gold, Silver and Copper are getting the bid, all at present above today’s neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is mostly light, the exception being Copper having already traced 73% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold appears on track for a positive weekly close for the first time since that ending 20 April; in real-time, the yellow metal still is +70 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and at Market Trends, Gold’s linreg remains negative, however the “Baby Blues” therein have today lurched to the upside, and the “textbook technicals” have begun turning positive; more on it all of course in tomorrow’s 756th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. In a day replete with FedSpeak, the Econ Baro concludes its week with May’s UoM Sentiment Survey and April’s Treasury Budget.

09 May 2024 – 08:31 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Silver is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility by this hour remains quite light, again in a week with little incoming EconData. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our leader is Copper’s 1hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Moneyflow. By Market Trends, when just recently Copper was sporting the only positive linreg, positive too now are those for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo; ’tis indicative for Fed rate cut expectations. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and the Euro. Simply today for the Econ Baro arrives last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

08 May 2024 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

Both Copper and Oil are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. The Euro has yet to respond to its positive crossing of the smooth valuation line (see Market Values); still (in real-time), the Euro’s “Baby Blues” are now rising above their 0% axis, (see Market Trends) the linreg having turned positive; Market Profile support for the Euro is 1.07000; too, the Euro’s Best Market Rhythm (see the Euro’s page) is its daily Price Oscillator which appears poised to turn positive: 7 of the past 10 Price Oscillator crossings for the Euro (in either direction) have generated follow-through of at least 0.02000 points ($2,500/cac). Today for the Econ Baro we’ve March’s Wholesale Inventories.

07 May 2024 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

Both the Swiss Franc and Silver are currently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. We’re minding the Euro, as Friday (by Market Values) the currency confirmed a positive crossover of price above its smooth valuation line: the average follow-through of such crossings from a year ago-to-date is some 0.019 points, which from Friday’s settle at 1.07815 “suggests” the Euro reaching up toward the 1.10s; (the Euro is at present 1.07745); obviously “average” hardly is forward reality, however as “Fed rate cut” expectations are renewing, that has taken some puff out of the Dollar. Late in today’s session the Econ Baro looks to March’s Consumer Credit.

06 May 2024 – 08:24 Central Euro Time

The Swiss Franc is currently below today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the Metals Triumvirate and Oil, and BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, even as a week with little incoming EconData begins: just five metrics are due through Friday. The Gold Update muses over the “seasonality” of bank failures, noting (per Fitch) that 7% of U.S. banks are “stressed”; otherwise, Gold’s near-term technicals continue to appear negative despite a bit of a price bounce to start the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has unwound its “textbook oversold” condition; and with about 75% of Q1 Earnings Season complete for the S&P, 65% (somewhat below average) have thus far improved their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.2x and the yield 1.417%; the annualized three-month U.S. T-Bill yield is 5.235%.

The Gold Update: No. 755 – (04 May 2024) – “Own Gold with Reason into Bank Failure Season”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 755th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 May 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Own Gold with Reason into Bank Failure Season

Not to overly dwell — let alone predict — by subject title, however if we search our recollect (thank you Ken Starr), was it not by this time a year ago that we’d witnessed a few banks go?  Whilst not first, First Republic failed.  And now a year hence, Republic First has failed.  How palindromic its that?  Or from the “What’s in a Numerological Name Dept.” ought we now be concerned about Old Second National, or dare we say, Fifth Third?  (Not to panic as both those two institutions appear quite solvent, whereas New York’s Fourth National went defunct 110 years ago, but we digress…)

Regardless, we read this past week with interest (get it?) of a report wherein Klaros Group — their having analyzed some 4,000 StateSide banks — deduced that 282 (7%) of them are “stressed”, (the word of a co-founder and partner of noted consulting firm, albeit he qualified that hardly is insolvency an imminent issue).  Still, Fitch’s Christopher Wolfe (Managing Director and Head of North American Banks) said per a mid-week CNBC(S) piece:  “You could see some banks either fail or at least … dip below their minimum capital requirements…”  Just something upon which to chew rather than Gold eschew, (which one ought never do), even as its near-term down move looks to continue.

That noted, Gold now through 18 weeks in 2024 recorded for just the third time back-to-back down ones in settling yesterday (Friday) at 2310.  And given Gold’s near-term technicals are tilting more negatively, ‘twould appear the 2247-2171 structural support zone as herein cited a week ago can more realistically come into play.  Indeed Gold’s EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) is now 44 points and the weekly measure 75 points:  so from today’s 2310 ’tis not that far down to at least tap 2247.

And so to Gold’s year ago-to-date weekly bars we go, upon which we’ve placed the green-bounded 2247-2171 support zone.  ‘Course that area may be moot should an otherwise waiting trading community get fired up over the next bank default:

“But as you say, mmb, the technicals remain down, eh?

Near-term that is the case, Squire.  In fact, per our linear regression math, the 21-day trends for both Gold and Silver this past week rotated as we anticipated from positive to negative.  You can see it “in motion” per the following animated graphic of the precious metals’ respective 21-day trading days (one month) as they progressed from one week ago to now.  Again as we’ve oft said:  “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes” as clearly depicted here, the trendlines turning negative as the “Baby Blues” fall through their centered 0% axes:

And as you core followers know such that you can keep track, the stance of the “Baby Blues” for all of our markets are updated daily at the website.  Too, toward assessing Gold’s negative technical bent, let’s also update price vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line.  As we next look below on the left at Gold from three months ago-to-date, the excess of price above its smooth valuation line (borne of price changes relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets:  Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) has eroded from more than +200 points now to just +50 points.  In this same construct, on the right we’ve the S&P 500, which you sharp-eyed readers shall recall we deemed some two weeks ago as having become “textbook oversold”, when also ’twas certainly low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line:

Still, whilst Gold near-term (i.e. the trader’s view) had become “too high” and the S&P “too low”, we all (hopefully) know that broadly (i.e. the investor’s view) Gold by currency debasement remains vastly undervalued whilst the S&P 500 by earnings generation continues as immensely overvalued.  Oh to be sure, this Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P has thus far reduced its “live” price/earnings ratio from the mid-40s to now 37.7x:  but given the low-20s as an “acceptable mean” — especially in this 5% risk-free interest environment — the potential fallout for equities remains massiveRemember:  had COVID (and all of its attendant money printing) not occurred, the S&P 500 today by its 50-year regression channel would be ’round the 2900 area, and the investing world very pleased with that level.  But priced today at 5128, the “Casino 500” is that namesake.  And throughout the S&P’s history as dated from its creation in March 1957, the P/E always reverts to its mean, (hint hint, nudge nudge, wink wink, elbow elbow).  Or ad nauseam reprising J. B. Cohen: “…in bull markets the average [P/E] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings.”  Again, we’re now basically double that.

In the midst of all this, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released their expected “do-nothing” Policy Statement, following which FedHead Jerome Powell said:  I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike … I think we’d need to see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time. That’s not what we think we’re seeing.”  

Here’s what we’re seeing, having herein ruminated since New Year that the Fed potentially need raise rates.  Our following updated table summarizes StateSide inflation now through all of the key March measures of the Consumer Price Index (CPI retail inflation), Producer Price Index (PPI retail inflation), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE Fed-favoured inflation).  Be it by 12-month summation and/or March itself annualized, red indicates inflation running well ahead of the Fed’s 2% target:

‘Course we all understand that ’tis the Fed’s notorious tradition to be “behind the curve”.  And the above table proves it.  But the Fed maintains significant credibility, as it is watched, read and parsed word-by-word.  The FinMedia suck it all in.  The folks managing your money suck it all in.  Moreover, ’tis oft thought the Fed is desperate to keeping the stock market from crashing.  Also, consider the plight of those aforementioned “stressed” banks, (“No, thanks!”)

But let’s look at what’s happening:  Chair Powell desires inflation receding down to “2% over time”; FedFunds have been in the 5.25%-to-5.50% target range since last 26 July:  that’s more than nine months ago; how much “over time” is being considered?  Or is the sudden, abrupt downturn in the Economic Barometer bang-on-time to aid the Fed’s stead? 

This past week, 16 metrics came into the Econ Baro, of which a mere four improved period-over-period.  And the cost of labour is on the move:  not only did Q1’s Employment Cost Index increase, but Unit Labor Costs — which were flat back in Q4 — lurched +4.7% in Q1.  Is it any surprise Payrolls’ growth really slowed in April, Unemployment ticked higher, and the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index crossed from expansion in March now to contraction?  No, ’tisn’t.  (Then there’s the “S”-word:  stagflation. … but we’re not supposed to say that).

Neither is it a surprise to note all the overhead pricing resistance for the precious metals.  Here (below left) is the 10-day Market Profile for Gold with same (below right) for Silver.  Volume-dominant price apices are as labeled:

To wrap, we mentioned earlier with respect to the Fed those who fawn over every word, which may well include they who manage your money, i.e. the “pro” you know.  But wait, there’s more:  hat-tip Bloomy from just over a week ago when the “Casino 500” was weathering a minor correction:  Wall Street Humbled as Fast-Reversing Markets Confound the Pros.”  Is that not oxymoronic?  Any “pro” worth his or her salt ought hardly be “confounded” by anything the market does, certainly so when it declines from these ridiculously overvalued levels.  Certainly stated:  rather than “confounded”, a true “pro” ought be “expective” of significant (understatement) downside risk.  Right?  What are they missing?

“Math skills, mmb?

Oh Squire, you’re just too good.  But be it rate uncertainties, debased currencies, bank failures, “stoopid” equity values, geo-political jitters or the “confounded pro” whose hands are on your money

maintain sound reason and your wealth domain with Gold!

Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

03 May 2024 – 08:18 Central Euro Time

We’ve the Swiss Franc at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the seven other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. Our top three Market Rhythms on 10-test swing basis are the Spoo’s 1hr MACD and daily Parabolics, plus the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Parabolics; on 24-test swing basis they are Gold’s 15mn Moneyflow, Copper’s 8hr Moneyflow, and the Swiss Franc’s daily Parabolics. Looking at Market Values, Gold — which in recent weeks had been better than +200 points above its smooth valuation line — is now (in real-time) “just” +46 points above it; Oil is better than -4 points below same, and the Spoo -101 points by same; the Euro looks poised for the ensuing week to cross above its valuation line, which by rule would be a Long signal. The Econ Baro concludes its week with Aprils’ Payrolls data and the ISM(Svc) Index.

02 May 2024 – 08:19 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve both the Bond and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The FOMC’s stance as anticipated was a fairly do-nothing non-event, notably as little has changed on the inflation front, (save for it not really slowing). At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are curling upward for the Bond, Euro and Spoo, even as the Fed (subtly or otherwise) is de-emphasizing the word “cut” without specifying “raise” (yet?); ‘course, we’ll continue to mid the math thereto. ‘Tis a busy inflow of metrics today for the Econ Baro, including March’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders, as well as the initial look at Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q1.

01 May 2024 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

Save for the Swiss Franc, at present below today’s Neutral Zone, the seven other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is very light, albeit in the context that some EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been expanding of late, notably so that for the Spoo which is now measured at 74 points. As anticipated, in real-time the linregs for both Gold and Silver have now rotated to negative, leaving Copper as the only positive linreg BEGOS component. With better than half of S&P 500 companies having thus far reported earnings, the “live” P/E has favourably come off a bit, now 38.3x, but still extremely expensive by any historical earnings yardstick. The Econ Baro looks to April’s ADP Employment Data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus March’s Construction Spending. 18:00 brings the FOMC’s Policy Statement and then Powell’s Presser.

30 April 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

The final day of the year’s first quadrimestris finds early on all eight BEGOS Markets in the red; therein, the elements comprising the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, (the Bond, Oil and Spoo within same, albeit down). At Market Trends, both Gold and Silver appear within a day or two of their linregs rotating from positive to negative, which would leave Copper as the sole remaining component with a positive linreg; Gold remains above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) in real-time by +78 points; still thus far today, the yellow metal already has broken below key Market Profile trading support (2342), current price now 2331. For the Econ Baro we’ve April’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence, plus Q1’s Employment Cost Index.

29 April 2024 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

A bit of Dollar weakness to begin “Fed Week”, the Euro and Swiss Franc (non-BEGOS Yen too) at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is already is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc having traced 108% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update “apologetically” takes credit for price’s demise last Monday; further downside purely by near-term technicals is anticipated toward structural support in the 2247-2171 zone, (Gold currently is 2342). Thus far in Q1 Earnings Season, 64% of S&P 500 constituents have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago (a decent Earnings Season is at least 70% improvement), but the excessively high level of the Index hasn’t lowered the “live” P/E a wit (45.5x futs-adj’d). Given historical reversion to the P/E mean, the S&P remains, dare we say, dangerously high.

The Gold Update: No. 754 – (27 April 2024) – “Gold Falters, Treads Water”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 754th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 27 April 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Falters, Treads Water

Per a tongue-in-cheek note this past week to our StateSide Investors’ Roundtable, we apologized for single-handedly having “crashed” the precious metals’ markets with last Saturday’s missive (“Gold Fit to Pull Back a Bit”) following which on Monday — directly out of the chute — the yellow metal suffered its third-worst intraday high-to-low loss (-2.7% or -$62/oz.) in better than 14 months…

Too, Sweet Sister Silver’s simultaneous stint saw a -5.7% slam.  Damn!

We nonetheless plead innocent for merely going with the math, a valued leading science which few anymore seem to do.  For recently we’d written ad nauseum:  “…near-term Gold is very over-extended; but broad-term Gold remains very undervalued…”  And for you WestPalmBeachers down there, “near-term” plays out prior to “broad-term”, the former being exactly what Gold is now enduring, (i.e. ’tis going down).  Or for those you scoring at home:  mere math + historical repetition = leading knowledge.  Hardly the “holy grail”, but given prudent cash management, ’tis on balance beneficial to one’s trading account.  “Try it, you’ll like it!” –[Alka-Selzer, ’72].

Oh to be sure, Gold through just the first third of this year has already achieved our forecast high of 2375, indeed reaching up to 2449, albeit price settled yesterday (Friday) below both of those levels at 2350.  And whilst we’re on record to not upwardly re-forecast a revised target, we’d be surprised should Gold not trade higher still as the year unfolds, even if the Federal Reserve raises rates.  ‘Course, you regular readers know we’ve be musing since the start of this year over the Fed actually needing to again raise rates, contra to the non-math parroting crowd’s having called for as many as three rate cuts during 2024, (such expectations having lately been reduced to just one cut toward the end of the year).

But even should the Fed dutifully raise, such move — as we’ve in the past shown — wouldn’t automatically deter Gold from moving higher.  Recall the three-year stint from 2004 through 2006:  the FedFundsRate rose 425 basis points … and Gold rose +69%.

Thus whilst Gold is positioned just fine (thank you very much), when it comes to the stock market, it seems as if we’re in a constant state of hand-holding.  On days when the S&P 500 rises +1%, FinMedia responses range from neutral to happy.  But toss in a -1% down day, and many-a-headline goes catastrophic:

  • “Markets Roiled by FedSpeak!”
  • “Markets Plunge on Powell!”
  • “Markets Tumble on Earnings Trouble!”

Good grief.  The telling optics are that the FinMedia folks today have no concept of “Roiled”, “Plunge” nor “Tumble”.  They weren’t around in ’87, ’02, ’09, et alia.  Reprise The Temptations from ’66:  Get Ready”

And although we’re not predicting what would be a third -50% “correction” in just this century for the S&P, by math (oh-no, say it ain’t so) the setup is sitting there:

  • Neither earnings nor yield are supportive of price;
  • Twice as much money is invested in the S&P than exists (by “M2”); and
  • Risk-free dough pays triple the S&P’s yield.

Back in “our day”, a stock was purchased to benefit from a methodically rising price based on earnings generation — plus for high-quality companies — a dividend yield.  Today, stocks are purchased on expectations of their quickly quadrupling.  ‘Tis why we regularly term this “The Investing Age of Stoopid”.  Have a nice day.

Meanwhile, although April has been a losing month for the S&P, ’tis been a good month for Gold, as you know price having reached an All-Time High of 2449 (at precisely 07:15 GMT on the 9th).  And with but two trading days remaining in April, ’tis close enough to month-end to bring up our BEGOS Markets Standings essentially through this year’s first quadrimestris.  Therein, red-hot metal Copper –which a month ago had been sixth in this stack — is now leading the pack (a sign of continued inflation expectations), having even surpassed Oil, with Gold still on the podium scantly ahead of what is undoubtedly a pouting Sister Silver, just one-tenth of a percent behind in fourth:

Too, from the “Gold Plays No Currency Favourites Dept.” note that despite the Dollar Index being +4.9%, Gold nonetheless is +13.4%.  (Just because “That can’t happen”, ’tis).

And as Gold indeed is “What’s Happenin’!”, let’s go to the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, wherein we see the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now eight weeks in duration.  Moreover, in spite of last Monday’s price falter, Gold has since tread water by closing well off the week’s low (2304) per the closing nub (2350) on the rightmost bar:

Here comes the however:  the near-term “math” suggests we’ll see lower levels still.  For instance, we’ve the following two-panel display.  On the left is a graphic with which by now you’ve become quite familiar:  ’tis our BEGOS Markets near-term valuation (smooth line) for Gold based on its price movements relative to the other four primary BEGOS components (Bond, Euro, Oil, S&P).  And at present per the lower left section, price is still better than +100 points above valuation.  On the right we’ve Gold’s daily “candles” for the past 21 trading days (one month) wherein we find the parabolics having flipped to Short (per the red-encircled dot of last Monday).  Such flip was anticipated in last week’s missive — (“Too from the technical tent, Gold…is approaching a flip of the daily parabolic measure from Long to Short”) — and so it came to pass:

In terms of how far further Gold may fold from here, the 2247-2171 zone appears structurally supportive, (i.e. a drop from here of another -100 points wouldn’t be untoward).  And that technically trues up nicely per the above graphic wherein price is just over +100 points above valuation.  See how easy this is?  (Hopefully we’re wrong and Gold simply zooms back up the road).

Meanwhile:  “How ’bout ‘dem miners!”  Long overdue to get on the move, so have they been doing of late, albeit they too shall deflate should Gold near-term further slip from “Great!”.  Indeed here’s our usual month-end chart of Gold’s year-over-year daily percentage track along with those of its key equities brethren.  From worst-to-first we’ve:  Franco-Nevada (FNV) -19%, Newmont (NEM) -9% (but sporting a very robust, earnings-induced up move this past week), the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +4%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +7%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +12%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +17%, and Gold itself +18%.  As we go to the graphic, let us — for the equities — appropriately cue “The Agony and the Ecstasy”, –[Heston, Harrison, 20th Century Fox, ’65]: 

Next we go ’round the horn across the past 21 trading days for all eight BEGOS components.  The “Baby Blues” therein reflect the day-to-day consistency of each market’s respective grey trendline.  And as noted in yesterday’s Prescient Commentary, there’s the old adage “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes”, which specific below to both Gold and Silver is yet another technical case for further price fallout near-term.  But does that in turn mean we buy the Euro, its dots curling upward?  Given the Federal Open Market Committee’s pending “do nothing” Policy Statement and Powell Presser (on Wednesday, 01 May), any “hint” of a rate cut delay (if not outright suggestion of a rate hike), ought only serve to further strengthen the Dollar:

Moving on to the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, we’ve Gold (at left) and Silver (at right).  Simply per this construct, there is quite a bit of overhead volume resistance with which to deal.  Those prices levels of volume domination are as labeled:

And of course it being month-end (save for two trading days), here we’ve Gold’s structure across the past 16 years.  Note the forecast high (2375) having been achieved (and then some), followed by price’s pullback.  Still, we’ve added scaling space up toward 2600, just in case, (wink wink, nudge nudge…):

As for the StateSide Economic Barometer, the two most eyed items of the past week were the first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product and March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures.  First to the GDP:  its annualized nominal Q1 growth rate was +4.7% … but … +3.1% of such growth was pure inflation so the … netreal GDP growth was at best a tepid +1.6%.  Again, can you state “stagflate“?

Second to the “Fed-favoured” PCE for March:  both the headline and core readings maintained their +0.3% February paces, which when annualized comes to +3.6%, (nearly double the Fed’s targeted +2.0%).  Can you say “raise“?  Nevertheless, March’s Home Sales (both New and Pending) improved, as did Personal Income and Durable Orders, the Baro in turn getting a boost:

Notwithstanding our ever-ongoing aforementioned misgivings about the terrifically overvalued stock market as measured by the S&P (aka “Casino”) 500, note in the Baro the “live” price/earnings ratio is now 45.0x (by trailing twelve months) which as we near the half-way mark of Q1 Earnings Season hasn’t — on a cap-weighted basis — declined a material wit, (’twas 46.1x at the start of Earnings Season).

Yes, some 64% of S&P constituents have thus far reported year-over-year earnings increases:  but that impossibly supports a P/E of such level, indeed nearly double that of a dozen years ago.  Also, the “all-risk” Casino’s yield is now 1.413% versus the “no-risk” annualized U.S. three-month T-Bill’s 5.238%.  And yet the week was replete with such FinMedia headlines as (hat-tip Bloomy) –> “Magnificent Seven Roar…”, “Big Tech Surges…” and “AI Craze Powers Best Week…”  Thus the great game of “Equities Chicken” continues.

Oooh, and we shan’t then close without mentioning this from the “Which Came First? The Chicken or the Egg? Dept.”  (Hat-tip NewsMax) –> Engineers from The University of Colorado “Go Buffs!” at Boulder have conclusive research that folks over the age of 65 tend to slow down as it takes more energy to move than it does those younger.  Which has us seriously considering a new career in the field of such paid-for research of obvious conclusion.

Either way conclusively, don’t you be a chicken:  use our weekly research to buy and hold Gold!

Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

26 April 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

Both the Bond and Copper currently are above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Of note: the change in the Spoo at this time (5127.25, -4.50) belies the change in the S&P itself at the open given a material rise the Spoo after stocks had closed: at that present Spoo level, the S&P would open higher by some +46 points (+0.9%). Cac volume for Silver is moving from May into July: after Monday’s fallout for the precious metals, Gold and Silver have basically been treading water: however by Market Trends, their respective “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continue to drop, our old adage being “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes.” Widely followed today for the Econ Baro are March’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Prices.

25 April 2024 – 08:27 Central Euro Time

The EuroCurrencies (Euro and Swiss Franc) are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation is negative between the Bond and Gold. As for the five’s Market Values in real-time: the Bond is better than -6 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -2.16 points “low”, Gold +96 points “high”, Oil right on its valuation line, and the Spoo -215 points “low”, (the S&P 500 itself now eight days “textbook oversold”, however fundamentally by earnings still catastrophically overvalued, the “live” P/E 43.6x). Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include March’s Pending Home Sales plus the first peek at Q1 GDP.

24 April 2024 – 08:22 Central Euro Time

The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; above same is Copper, the cac volume for which is rolling from May into July, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light within the context that Market Ranges have been increasing these last couple of months. Leading our Market Rhythms for consistency is (on a 10-test swing basis) the Euro’s 1hr Parabolics; more broadly (on a 24-test swing basis) the Swiss Franc’s daily Parabolics continue to top that list. At Market Trends, as anticipated, we’ve confirmation of both precious metals’ “Baby Blues” having moved below their respective key +80% axes: thus we should see still lower prices for Gold and Silver near-term. The Econ Baro looks to March’s Durable Orders.

23 April 2024 – 08:15 Central Euro Time

All three elements of the BEGOS Markets’ Metals Triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other components are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. On the heels of the current Gold Update’s near-term negative stance, Gold yesterday suffered its third-worst intraday high-to-low loss (-2.7%) since February a year ago; (’twas Silver’s fourth-worst [-5.7%] across the same 14-month stint). We expect to see lower near-term levels still for both precious metals as (in real-time) their respective “Baby Blues” are crossing below their key +80% axes (see Market Trends). Gold vis-à-vis its smooth Market Values line has essentially halved the recent +200-point gap, but still (in real-time) price is +99 points above valuation. The Econ Baro awaits March’s New Home Sales.

22 April 2024 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Oil are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility runs from light-to-robust, Silver having already traded 101% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as “fit to pull back a bit”, which on cue ’tis doing: still, our live Market Values shows price +162 points above its smooth valuation line; mind too at Market Trends the level and direction of Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. As to the S&P 500, ’tis technically in a “textbook oversold” mode for the first time since late last October; regardless, the Index remain excessively high given its ongoing lack of earnings support: the futs-adj’d “live” P/E at this moment is 43.0x. The volume of incoming Q1 earnings is substantive as the week unfolds.

The Gold Update: No. 753 – (20 April 2024) – “Gold Fit to Pull Back a Bit”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 753rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 20 April 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Fit to Pull Back a Bit

Two missives back we penned “Gold ‘Overbought’ is Great!” and so ’tis been.  These past couple of months have finally seen a long overdue repricing of Gold from some three years of being range-bound in the 1700-2000 zone to now up through our forecast high for this year of 2375 and onward to a new All-Time High at 2449 recorded just over a week ago (on 12 April).

And yet whilst championing this latest ascent, we’ve warily pointed throughout the extent to which Gold has become technically stretched such that we “know” retrenchment is to be expected.  And we say that with 100% respect due the opening Gold Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement valuation of 3723, given price settling this past week yesterday (Friday) at “only” 2407, itself an All-Time Weekly Closing High.  Yet to repeat that from a week ago:  “…near-term Gold is very over-extended; but broad-term Gold remains very undervalued…”  We can’t quintessentially put it any better than that.

‘Course a key metric we regularly watch as is the case for all five components which comprise the primary BEGOS Markets, (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) is Gold’s smooth valuation line which specifies a near-term value based on price’s day-to-day movement relative to the other four BEGOS components.  (The website’s Market Values page displays same for all five markets).  Indeed invariably through a generation (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is 25 years) of calculating Market Values, ’tis axiomatic that price and valuation regularly re-meet.  And per the following left-hand panel of Gold’s daily closes from three months ago-to-date vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line, price at present (per the difference of price less value) is right now +195 points “too high”.  (The right-hand panel is the same drill for the S&P 500, near-term oversold, but upon which we’ll later expound):

Still therein for the yellow metal, the good news is the smooth valuation line itself is rising such that price need not actually drop -195 points; (the pace of the smooth line’s ascent exceeded +5 points every day last week).  Regardless:  price (2407) remains sufficiently high above value (2212).  On a percentage basis that is a +8.8% gap:  the last period of such upside percentage excess was during the onset of the RUS/UKR incursion during early March 2022, following which within the ensuing 10 weeks Gold fell better than -200 points.  And to the extent Gold’s recent buoyancy is arguably due to fresh Middle East conflict, we’ve herein demonstrated over the years that geo-political price spikes for the yellow metal are short-lived.  Further, as the website’s Market Values page is a bona fide leading indicator of direction, even as Gold of late has been getting the bid, again we remain wary of price having reached a near-term lid.

Too from the technical tent, Gold by its “continuous futures contract” is approaching a flip of the daily parabolic measure from Long to Short:  currently 2407, were 2386 to trade on Monday, such Short (albeit a bad idea) would be in play; and Gold’s average price decline across the past 12 such Short signals is -353 points (just in case you’re scoring at home).  But no, we do not expect anything of such downside magnitude this next time ’round.

‘Course, all this near-term negative awareness may be moot given the International Monetary Fund having stated this past week that “Something will have to give” with respect to what is deemed as an unsustainable level of U.S. debt and thereto its global fallout ramifications.  “Got Gold?”  Again, despite price’s record highs, fundamentally ’tis still cheap and it looks great:

“And I added a lavendar-bounded support area in there, mmb…

Nicely done, Squire, in that view of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  And we concur:  your 2150-to-2000 area does look structurally-supportive for Gold, and notably enhances the notion that the sub-2000 days are gone.  Indeed should near-term price weakness come to the fore, that year-over-year graphic really encompasses Gold’s soar.  And ultimately, we’ll see more.

Now having just mentioned the IMF, ’tis a nice segue into the StateSide Economic Barometer.  For with respect to the U.S. economy, the IMF also penned on Tuesday: The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth…”  We cite as well their chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas:  “The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity and employment growth, but also strong demand in an economy that remains overheated…” Is that your takeaway per the Econ Baro from a year ago-to-date?  Is the economy really that great?  Or shall it stagflate as we’ve suggested is its state of late?

Last week brought 13 metrics into the Baro:  but period-over-period, just four improved.  Moreover, ’tis Q1 Earnings Season:  thus far for S&P 500 constituents, 51 have reported with just 30 having increased their bottom lines from a year ago.  But this is the mighty “best of the best” S&P 500:  should not all entities therein be improving; (a bit tongue-in-cheek perhaps, but to be fair, in a decent Earnings Season at least 70% improvement at the S&P level ought be expected; thus far just 59% have made more money, albeit ’tis early).  

However, even as the aforeshown green Market Values graphic of the S&P shows its futures as sufficiently oversold, the truth remains that earnings are not supportive of price:  the “live” price earnings ratio of the S&P settled yesterday at 43.1x.  Reprise yet again one Jerome B. Cohen: “…in bull markets the average [P/E] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings.”  Recall our notion in recent years of a “Look Ma, no earnings!” crash?

Or if you prefer more lately, a “Look Ma, no money!” crash?  The current market-capitalization of the “Casino 500” now at $43.3T is just 48% supported by the liquid U.S. money supply (M2 basis) of only $21.0T.  So when you sell, how’s your broker’s “I.O.U.” gonna work out for ya?  Nuff said.

And yet has enough been said by the Fed?  No.  For on the heels of former TreasSec Larry “Oh Not That Guy” Summers in the week prior having cautioned the Federal Reserve’s next rate move could possibly be up rather than down, just this past Thursday at the Semafor World Economy Summit, New York FedPrez John “It’s All Good” Williams said:  “…if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that…” Obviously indeed.  You regular readers know we’ve been musing well ahead of the curve about rate hike(s) since our first missive of this year.  And ’tis been better than 30 years since upon pushing Barbie’s button she said “Math class is tough.”  As we oft harp, these days it seems no one does math; rather, they parrot.  “Well, it was on the news, ya know…”

Yet hardly can enough be said about the precious metals having run ahead, both Gold and Silver as thoroughbreds!  In fact amongst the entire BEGOS pack, Silver now leads the year-to-date percentage tracks at +19.6%, followed by Oil +16.7% and then closely by Gold +16.2%.  (The S&P’s once-inane gain has now fizzled to just +4.1%; we’ll display the whole bunch in next week’s “month-end” edition of the Gold Update).

But specific to Gold below on the left and Silver on the right, historically one is hard-pressed to find such like uptrend performance.  Why, even the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency having fallen a month ago below their key +80% axis could not forestall further price-rise by any material degree.  Still:  that +80% level is critical to watch, for upon being breached, the rule rather than the exception is lower price levels near-term; (the “Baby Blues” you can find updated daily, ‘natch, on the website):

Turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, you also can clearly see the bulk of trading for both Gold (at left) and Silver (at right) as centered in their respective price stacks.  The most dominant prices therein traded are as denoted:

Next week bring 10 metrics into the Econ Baro, the two most viewed to be:

  • The first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product, the growth pace for which is expected to have slowed from that in Q4, and

  • March’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices, such paces not expected to have eased from those in February.

Nonetheless, despite a pending dip in the price of Gold, ‘tis best you continue to grab more and hold!

Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

19 April 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve the Bond, Swiss Franc and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones; the Spoo is below same, and volatility is robust given markets responding to an escalation of conflict in the Middle East; of note, the Metals Triumvirate (Gold/Silver/Copper) along with the Euro are the least volatile (comparatively) of the BEGOS Markets thus far this session. We still sense some near-term retrenchment for Gold, and both it and Silver are nearing negative Market Magnet crossovers. The S&P 500 would appear to be enroute to a sixth consecutive down day, a streak not seen since 05-12 October 2002. The Dollar Index continues to hover above the 106 handle, a level last visited some five months ago. And as noted yesterday, the Econ Baro’s week has already concluded, the net result bringing a downward bent.

18 April 2024 – 08:21 Central Euro Time

Dough is finding its way into the BEGOS Markets: at present the Bond, Swiss Franc, all three components of the Metals Triumvirate and the Spoo are above today’s Neutral Zones; the Euro and Oil are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. On a 10-test basis, these five Market Rhythms are leading the pack for swing consistency: the Bond’s daily Parabolics, Copper’s 12hr Parabolics and 6hr Price Oscillator; the Euro’s 2hr MACD, and the Spoo’s daily Parabolics. More broadly time-wise, the leader on the 24-test swing basis is the Swiss Franc’s daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro completes its week today, incoming metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index, plus March’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

17 April 2024 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is again light. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, as readings are excessive: the Bond is -8 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.044 points “low”, Gold +189 points “high”, Oil +2.88 points “high”, and the Spoo -216 points “low”. Very early on in Q1 Earnings Season, with 23 S&P 500 constituents having thus far reported, only 13 (57%) have bettered their bottom lines of a year ago. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs’-adj/d) is 44.7x and the yield 1.420%. No metrics are due today for the Econ Baro.

16 April 2024 – 08:20 Central Euro Time

The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the other seven BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light in context with all EDTRs (see Market Ranges) increasing of late. Speaking of the Swissie, its daily Parabolics are leading our Market Rhythms studies for consistency on a 24-test swing basis. As noted in the current edition of The Gold Update: “…the stock market [is] poised for a downward skate…” even as it has been descending over the past couple of weeks: indeed the Spoo’s daily Price Oscillator study indicated a fresh Short per this morning’s open; there is some arbitrary structural support into the lower 4900s, (depending upon one’s measuring of such); again, the S&P 500 remains a vastly overvalued index relative to earnings, especially in an attractively-positive risk-free interest rate environment. The Econ Baro looks to March’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.

15 April 2024 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

The week begins with the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone; above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Spoo; and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust, notably for both Silver and Copper. The Gold Update cites our 2375 forecast having been achieved (last Tuesday); even so as price remains cheap relative to debasement valuation, Gold on a near-term basis remains excessively “overbought”: currently 2374, the Market Value smooth valuation line is but 2192. Looking at Market Trends for all eight BEGOS components, the 21-day linregs are positive for Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil; such trends are negative for negative for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo; on balance, a rather an inflationary view, that. The Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week with April’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices, March’s Retail Sales, and February’s Business Inventories.

The Gold Update: No. 752 – (13 April 2024) – “Gold Achieves Our Forecast High for This Year”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 752nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 April 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Achieves Our Forecast High for This Year

This past Tuesday 09 April at precisely 07:15 GMT, Gold tapped our 2375 forecast high for this year.  As we reminded you valued readers a week ago, such call made back on 30 December was couched as “conservative”.  And indeed this past week, Gold reached up past “conservative” to another All-Time High yesterday (Friday) at 2449 only to then plunge -98 points (-4.0%) in just five hours — its ninth-largest intraday points drop in history — toward finally settling at 2360.

“Well congrats anyway, mmb.  Now are you forecasting a higher, aggressive price for this year?

We shan’t so do, Squire, having already staked our claim.  Still, so as to keep eyebrows raised, let’s reprise that which we herein penned upon making the 2375 call:

“…whenever Gold has had a five-day run into Christmas of better than +1.0%, its average maximum price increase (as measured from the settle of the last trading day before Christmas) through the ensuing year is +23.9%.  That average comes from seven qualifying occurrences during 2001 through 2022:  and now for 2023 we’ve an eighth occurrence.  Thus applying that +23.9% average maximum increase to Gold’s 2065 settle this past 22 December would bring 2557 during 2024 … However: because a) we fully comprehend that “average” is not “reality” and more importantly that b) cash management drives at least some degree of capital preservation … we’ve decided to lop off one standard deviation of that average, which then conservatively forecasts +15.0% above 2065 — thus 2375 — for 2024’s high.  Anything beyond that is gravy.”

And with Gold having further ascended to 2449, another portion of giblets for the gravy already is warranted.  Whilst we’re not predicting it, 2557 from here at 2360 (+8%) doesn’t seem all that untoward timewise, given we’ve not even completed the year’s first quadrimestris (a little Latin lingo there), albeit Gold remains considerably stretched technically above its BEGOS Markets valuation.

‘Course as last week wrote:  “Gold ‘Overbought’ is Great!”.  Below from a week ago is our now updated Market Values graphic for Gold vis-à-vis its smooth BEGOS valuation line.  The lower panel oscillator (price less value) is still hovering ’round the extremely overbought +200 level.  And yet by the opening Gold Scoreboard, price at 2360 is -1362 points below Dollar debasement valuation.  Thus near-term Gold is very over-extended; but broad-term Gold remains very undervalued.  So ’tis not too late to buy, Kate, even if near-term we see price deteriorate … for Friday’s -98 intraday points-drop is indicative of some fragility.  Here’s the graphic:

 

 

But notably lost of late in the analytical mix — contra to the “convention wisdom” crowd — is Gold’s strength in tandem with Dollar strength.  For it does on occasion occur:  recall the first six months of 2010 when Gold and the Dollar Index (DXY) by mid-year were both up respectively by +13% and +10%.  And although the percentage moves of the DXY can be diminutive compared to those for Gold, directional correlation is the key.  So year-to-date, here are their respective tracks (independently scaled), with both dashed linear regression trendlines clearly in ascent:

Indeed yes, Virginia, even as the DXY (105.820) is now at its highest closing level since 02 November, Gold nonetheless did record that fresh All-Time High yesterday at 2449, price this past week on balance well-eclipsing our 2375 forecast.  From a year ago-to-date by Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends, here’s how price has gone UP:

As to the Stateside economy, inflation and the Fed, the FinMedia still can’t seem to get the word “cut” out of their head.  Steadfastly — despite much math to the contrary — ’tis expected that the Federal Reverse shall cut rates this year:  except that there shan’t be three cuts, rather one, and not (so they now say) until after Summer.  Or perhaps not at all based on what former TreasSec Larry “Oh Not That Guy” Summers just said this past Thursday, (hat-tip Bloomy):  “You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards…”  (We assume he’s actually done the math and/or regularly reads The Gold Update).

And to be sure, at the level of retail inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March printed increases of +0.4% for both the Headline and Core readings.  Annualized, that pace is +4.8% and the 12-month summations are Headline +3.3% and Core +3.8%.  The “good news” is:  at the wholesale inflation level, growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed in March, which can in turn “lead” to lower CPI levels.  On verra, but no matter how we slice it, inflation remains running above the Fed-desired +2% annualized pace — and should it not be trending down that way — they may just have to raise.

Either way, in an otherwise light week of incoming data for the Economic Barometer, sustained inflation at the retail level along with other metrics’ deterioration still keeps us in mind of stagflation.  Notably (but not widely focused upon), February’s Wholesale Inventories tied for their worst backup since those of December 2022, indicative of product not moving so well.  Too, the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for April declined from that for March.  Thus which way does the Baro itself march?  Have a look (should you dare) from a year ago-to-date, the stock market poised for a downward skate:

And just in case you’re scoring at home (courtesy of the “How Can We Fool ‘Em Today Dept.”) as regards The President’s “inflation was skyrocketing” comment:  when “they” took office on 20 January 2021, the 12-month summed data through December 2020 was as follows:  CPI Headline +1.3%, its Core +1.5%, PPI Headline +1.4% and its Core +1.3%.  (Oopsie Joey…)

Too, the “Casino 500” appears at long-last to be encountering an oopsie of its own, having recorded back-to-back down weeks for the first time since those ending last 20 and 27 October.  Our honestly-calculated capitalization-weighted “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P is now 45.3x and the yield but 1.384%, whilst risk-free U.S. three-month dough pays an annualized 5.230%.  (A word to the wise is sufficient).

To our two-panel Gold graphic we go, featuring the Daily Bars from three months ago-to-date on the left, and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The baby blue dots of trend consistency clearly depict Gold’s strong uptrend, albeit the Profile shows us how far the yellow metal fell from grace just yesterday (the white bar being present price):

 

And with the same drill for Sister Silver, both her Baby Blues at left and Profile at right fairly mirror those of Gold.  Silver’s high this past week of 29.905 hadn’t previously traded since 01 February 2021.  Yet, the Gold/Silver ratio remains historically high at 84.4x versus the century-to-date average of 68.2x.  By that average given Gold today at 2360, Silver “ought be” 34.67 (rather than the present 27.97).  So obviously whilst Gold fundamentally remains cheap, Silver remains super cheap!  Here she is:

To sum it all up with further Gold highs intact, let’s wrap with the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3722
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2449 (12 April 2024)
2024’s High:  2449 (12 April 2024)
10-Session directional range:  up to 2449 (from 2249) = +200 points or +8.9%
Trading Resistance 
(Profile selection):  2413
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2391 (11 April 2024)
Gold Currently:  2360, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 44 points)
Trading Support (Profile selections):  2358 / 2346 / 2304 / 2292 / 2278
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2340
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2023
The 300-Day Moving Average:  1996 and rising
2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Next week brings 13 metrics into the Econ Baro, plus Q1 Earnings Season ramps up, notably featuring financial institutions.  We indeed sported a wry smile yesterday over the FinMedia’s concern of Wells Fargo (WFC) having beaten earnings “estimates”, but the stock then falling “on the news”.  Perhaps ’twas because the company actually made less money than a year earlier, (but we’re not supposed to point that out).  Best to point to that which broadly makes money and secures your world of wealth:  Gold!

Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

12 April 2024 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

The Bond and the Metals Triumvirate are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the EuroCurrencies, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold has eclipsed the 2400 level (All-Time High now 2413): price (now 2408) is +222 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); more of course in tomorrow’s 752nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And yet, the Dollar also is on the move, trading this week to levels not seen since mid-November, (Gold then nearly -400 lower points than today). The Econ Baro concludes its week with a bit more inflation information as it awaits March’s Ex/Im Prices, plus UofM’s Sentiment Survey. And banks start to report for Q1 Earnings Season.

11 April 2024 – 08:20 Central Euro Time

Similar to this time yesterday, ahead now of StateSide wholesale inflation, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” for trend consistency are looking to cross their 0% axis as the linreg rotates from positive toward negative; technically for the S&P 500 itself, the daily parabolic trend, MACD and Moneyflow standard studies have all taken a negative bent; the Index’s “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 45.2x and the yield 1.387%. Gold (not unexpectedly) has mildly come off both its All-Time High (2385) and our year’s forecast high (2375): current price is 2354; Gold’s Market Magnet settled last evening at 2307; and by Market Values, Gold’s smooth valuation line is notably lower at 2179. Again today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include March’s PPI.

10 April 2024 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

Yesterday (09 April) Gold achieved our forecast high price for this year at 2375; as you readers of the Gold Update know, at the beginning of the year we couched such call as “conservative”, and given some nine months now still remain in 2024, it well could be. Ahead of Stateside retail inflation, all eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is very light, the average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing just 27% to this point. Looking at Market Profiles, we’ve trading support for the Bond at 117^22, the same for the Spoo at 5254, and for Oil at 85.20; Gold’s most dominantly traded handle of the past two weeks is 2304 and for the Euro ’tis 1.087. As noted, the Econ Baro awaits March’s CPI as well as the month’s Treasury Deficit, plus February’s Wholesale Inventories.

09 April 2024 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

At present, the Bond is above its Neutral Zone whilst below same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Leading Market Rhythms for consistency on a swing basis are: (10-test basis) Copper’s 6hr Price Oscillator, the Bond’s daily Parabolics, and Gold’s 15mn MACD; (24-test basis) the Swiss Franc’s daily Parabolics and Copper’s 6hr Parabolics. At Market Values for the Spoo, both price and its smooth valuation line finally have met; the deviation for Gold remains extremely stretched to the upside, in real-time by +198 points; for the other three primary BEGOS components: the Bond is 5 points “low”, the Euro 0.23 points “low” and Oil nearly 6 points “high”. Again, nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of inflation data (CPI, PPI, Ex/Im Prices) through the balance of the week.

08 April 2024 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

The back-loaded EconData week is underway with the Bond, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all at present beneath their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Silver, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is already mostly robust, the components of the Metals Triumvirate all well-exceeding their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update again cites (in a positive way) the “extreme” overbought technical near-term stance of price; so far this session, Gold has traded to within 3 points of our forecast high (2375) for this year: mind Gold’s Market Values graphic as to price vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line. As Q1 Earnings Season commences today, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 46.6x, essentially double that since its inception a dozen years ago; the yield is a paltry 1.371% vs. 5.215% annualized on the risk-free US three-month T-Bill.

The Gold Update: No. 751 – (06 April 2024) – “Gold ‘Overbought’ is Great!”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 751st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 06 April 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold ‘Overbought’ is Great!

We’ve penned it before, so let’s pen it again:

“Gold when technically overbought [as clearly now ’tis] might actually be considered a good thing … [as] great bull markets (or the resumption thereof) do breakout as such.”

That quintessentially describes the nature of Gold’s price over the past five weeks.  And the Gold bid is substantive:  the combined COMEX trading volume of Gold from 04 March-to-date is the largest for any five-week stint since the world balked at COVID in 2020.  Back then, the price of the yellow metal after having settled the prior year of 2019 at 1550, powered up to 2089 come 07 August 2020, a nearly +35% increase in 152 trading days:  that All-Time High then remained in place until ’twas eclipsed more than three years later this past 27 December.

Moreover, Gold’s June contract settled yesterday (Friday) at 2349 inclusive of an intraday 2350 All-Time High, just 25 points shy of our predicted 2375 high for the entirety of this year.  Further, Gold’s “expected daily trading range” (EDTR) is now 35 points:  so priced today at 2349, Gold is within a day’s range of reaching our 2375 target.  (Yes there are some +20 points of eroding premium in Gold’s futures price, but again given the EDTR is 35 points, such excess is at best noise).

“And it’s not too late to buy, right mmb?

Actually, Squire, in the broader picture — especially as “under-owned” as remains Gold — hardly is it late:  rather, tis still early!  We only mention this to dispel any investor concerns of having “missed the move” as Gold has still so far up to go.  Oh to be sure, ‘twould be untoward technically for Gold not to pullback near-term; but fundamentally Gold remains extraordinarily inexpensive relative to U.S. Dollar debasement, such valuation by our opening Scoreboard now 3720.

The key point here is:  Gold finally and rightly is getting repriced to a somewhat more reasonable level, albeit still well below said Scoreboard valuation.  Again, that is broad-term.  As for near-term, our 2375 looks ripe for the taking; indeed you may remember our couching that level as “conservative” when we first made the call; (see via the website The Gold Update from last 30 December, entitled “Gold – We Conservatively Forecast 2375 for 2024’s High”).  And now year-to-date, Gold is +13.4%.  As for year-over-year, ’tis +15.3% in turning to price’s weekly bars from 05 April a year ago, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now increasing its upside acceleration:

‘Course the thrust of this missive is that ’tis great when Gold becomes “overbought” as price climbs high into the sky.  Still, from the infamous “Nothing Moves in a Straight Line Dept.” Gold right now is truly, technically over-extended.  We thus update the following telling graphic from the website wherein we chart the daily closing prices from this time a year ago-to-date astride the smooth valuation line, (a near-term analytic unrelated to the broad-term Scoreboard valuation).  Those of you familiar with this proprietary measure know the drill:  when price breaks above or below the smooth line, ’tis the direction in which to trade, (albeit Shorting Gold is a bad idea).  Recall the smooth line is derived from relative price changes amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) as the flows between these critically important entities is significantly substantive; hence the inception of BEGOS some two decades ago.  Here’s our two-panel valuation view:  

Per the graphic’s lower panel (price less valuation), specific to Gold, a 100-point (on either side) deviation is considered “extreme”, and we’re essentially now +200 points above valuation.  Such extreme distance in concert with Gold almost at our year’s forecast high of 2375 can present a near-term reversal of fortune, (and if anything, an opportunity to add to one’s pile).  Whilst the extent of a reversal is unknown, the +200 level has basically been reached only three other times:  first on 22 August 2011 after which price within a year dropped by -19.8%, then again briefly on COVID-crazy 15 April 2020, the third time being on 06 August 2020, which then saw price similarly drop within a year by -19.4%.

So is another -19%ish drop within Gold’s cards?  We don’t see that a wit.  For positively, note on the above graphic the remark pointing to recent structural support just below 2200.  As we penned back in our 09 March piece:  “…gone are the days of the 1900s…”  Should this new “repricing” of Gold remain true to inevitable form, indeed those “days” ought well be histoire.  Thus the bottom line is:  Gold’s pending price plight shall morph into dip-buyers delight.

Yet for the StateSide economy, our Economic Barometer seems biased a bit more toward plight rather than delight.  Job creation in March was fairly firm, notably per the ADP Employment data having bettered consensus, as well as having improved over that for February, that month in turn having been revised higher.  But in looking at the past week’s Initial Jobless Claims as well as February’s Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit, all three worsened from the prior period, of which was revised lower in all three cases, and all three were worse than consensus.  Indeed, have we of late mentioned the word stagflation?  You know we have, especially given the graphic depictions in recent editions of inflation rising and/or still trending above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.  More on inflation specific to the BEGOS Markets following this view of the Baro (with the inane “Casino 500” in red) from one year ago-to-date, “Oops…”:

Indeed one wonders if the earnings-lacking, nearly-yieldless S&P is at long last putting in a top.  (Yes, ’tis wishful thinking, right?)  We nonetheless stick to history at some point repeating itself yet again — and that mathematically — a third “correction” of worse than -50% across the past 25 years is justifiably in the cards.  ‘Course, preventing that is math no longer being employed in portfolio management.  But just when ’tis said: “It’s different this time”, it turns out not to be.  Perhaps “AI” shall save it all from going wrong … else hasten such.  Would you board a plane piloted by Assembled Inaccuracy?  “Have a nice fright…”  There’s still a lot of “learning” to do out there.

As to inflation, per our musings since the start of this year, we reprise:  “…might renewed inflation be taking first prize?  In other words:  what if the Fed instead tightens  surprise!”  Or as Bloomy printed this past Tuesday:  “Bond Selloff Builds as Fed Seen Delaying Rate Cuts”Oh say it ain’t so!

And yet, the old adage certainly seems in play:  “The rising tide of inflation lifts all boats.”  Or clearly so for the following BEGOS Markets.  This next four-panel display shows the past 21 trading days (one month) for our Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil, all including their baby blue dots of trend consistency.  Across the board ’tis up, up and away!  And those of you seasoned investors and traders know that markets have a hankering to lead that which fundamentally is coming, (which in this case for you WestPalmBeachers down there means more inflation).  Thus just maybe there’ll be a “Fed rate hike?”  We know, “Don’t go there!”  Here’s the graphic:

And specific to the precious metals, next is our two-panel display of the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Per the wee white bars, there’s nothing like sitting atop the respective stacks, eh?

To wrap, in that we’ve mentioned inflation, again ’tis on full display next week as the March data arrives at both the retail (Consumer Price Index) and Wholesale (Producer Price Index) levels.  In both cases, consensus expects cooling.  (We’ll believe it when we see it; on this side of the Pond it sure doesn’t feel like it).  Still toward staying first rate:  ensure your nuggets of financial wisdom include both Gold and Silver, as being “overbought” is great!

 Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

05 April 2024 – 08:23 Central Euro Time

All three elements of the BEGOS Markets’ Metals Triumvirate are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other components are above same, and volatility runs the gamut from light-to-robust, Silver having already traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Following yesterday’s Commentary on the Spoo seeing its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having slipped below their key +80% axis as well as the S&P 500 being in a historically extreme overbought streak, an inevitable price dump emerged: to the extent it becomes material near-term remains to be seen, the Spoo up a tad this morning. In the day’s balance, the Econ Baro looks to March’s Payrolls data, followed late in the session by February’s Consumer Credit.

04 April 2024 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

Silver — for which the net gain across the past two trading days was +8.3% — is at present below today’s Neutral Zone, as is the Bond; above same is Copper, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling beneath their key +80% axis, thus indicative of lower price levels near-term, although two of the past six like downside signals from a year ago-to-date have produced minimal material downside given the S&P 500 having been in “straight-up” mode. Indeed through yesterday, the S&P recorded its 52nd consecutive trading session as “textbook overbought” which ranks fifth for such streaks in better than four decades. With Q1 Earnings Season commencing next week, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is now 46.7x. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Trade Deficit.

03 April 2024 – 08:26 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve both Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are both Oil and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again mostly light; (both the white and red metals have traced better than 50% of their EDTRs [see Market Ranges]). Looking at Market Values (in real-time): the Bond is nearly -4.5 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro nearly -0.03 points “low”, Gold +166 points “high”; Oil +4.9 points “high”, and the Spoo now down to just +29 points “high”. Specific to Gold’s “high” deviation, such extremes are rare and have historically led to price pullbacks near-to-medium term; ‘course since Gold is (finally) getting a bid these days, history may not necessarily repeat: rather, the smooth valuation line can instead catch up to price. The Econ Baro looks to March’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Svc) Index.

02 April 2024 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

Early on we’ve the two EuroCurrencies below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Silver; BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light as most ETDRs (see Market Ranges) are narrowing, save for those of the Metals Triumvirate. The Dollar continues getting a bid now to nearly a two-month high as Fed rate cuts fade a bit from FinMedia wishful reporting. Looking at Market Rhythm swing consistencies (on a 10-test basis), we’ve five of note per late night’s data runs: Oil’s 60mn Moneyflow, Copper’s 6hr Price Oscillator, the Spoo’s daily Parabolics, and for the Bond both its 2hr Moneyflow and daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits February’s Factory Orders.

01 April 2024 – 09:26 Central Euro Time

The BEGOS Markets’ Metals Triumvirate are all above today’s Neutral Zones, as is the Spoo; none of the other components are below same, and volatility runs from light-to-robust, Gold already having traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold, with its fresh June premium, is now 2281, within 100 points of our forecast high for this year of 2375; The Gold Update remains a bit wary of Gold being technically over-extended near term; too therein, February’s PCE data (reported during Friday’s holiday) confirms a five-month rising trend of inflation by that metric. Regardless, the Spoo at present (5330) is poised such that the S&P 500 would open at a record high. Due for the Econ Baro is March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 750 – (30 March 2024) – “Gold Reaps More Record Ground”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 750th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 30 March 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Reaps More Record Ground”

Welcome one and all to the 750th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.  Having missed nary a Saturday since our first missive (20 November 2009) with Gold then 1151, price since has nearly doubled (+94%), toward settling this past shortened trading week on Thursday at the latest All-Time High of 2234.  Thus we’ve a milestone price for Gold in synch with this milestone missive.

To be sure across the same stint, Gold supply’s tonnage has increased +23% for which we rightly account in the above Scoreboard valuation of 3719; but the U.S. liquid money supply (“M2”) has far more overwhelmingly increased +147% (that’s 2.5x for those of you scoring at home).  ‘Tis reason right there to make sure you own Gold!

So as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, let’s again cue Rita Coolidge from back in ’83 with All Time High”:

Gold’s +3.1% (+68 points) gain this past week ranks fourth-best on both a percentage and points basis in better than a year (since the week ending 17 March 2023).  Moreover, the current 2234 level is -141 points shy of our forecast high for this year of 2375, (a further +6.3% gain from here), to which ’tis reasonable to say — with three quarters remaining in the young year — would seem well within range.  Indeed were 2375 to be reached by year-end, ‘twould be a +14.6% gain (from 2023’s close of 2072).  Possible?  Absolutely!  Across the past 49 trading years (from 1975 through 2023), Gold has recorded intra-year gains exceeding +14.6% in 26 of those years.  

As to the three notable near-term Gold negatives we herein cited a week ago, price has only been positive.  Still, recall then that price (per our Market Values page) was +71 points above our “smooth valuation line”:  that deviation is now +116 points which historically is both excessive and generally leads to some natural ebb within Gold’s overall up-flow.  Too, Gold’s daily (not weekly) parabolics a week back had flipped to Short, albeit they’ve now returned to Long.  But Gold’s “Baby Blues” (per our Market Trends page and as we’ll later below see) were — and still are — in decline.

Now including key precious metal equities and the month of March being in the books, we next go year-over-year with the following percentage tracks wherein we find Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +14%, Gold itself +13%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) -2%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) -9%, both Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) -18%, and cellar-dweller Newmont (NEM) -26%.  But as lagging as the equities appear, there is a rather robust appearance in their most recent rises.  Notably thereto across the past 32 trading days (since 13 February), whilst Gold is +11%, AEM is +33%.

“Which is the way it’s supposed to be, right mmb?

Right, dear Squire:  live by the equities’ leverage, albeit suffer by it at times within Gold’s overall rich pageant.  Here are the tracks: 

 

However:  returning to Gold’s firm year-to-date performance (thoroughly so through March), and it being not only month-end but quarter-end as well, here are the BEGOS Markets’ percentage-change standings thus far in 2024.  Gold is on the podium with a +7.8% gain, third only to the “Casino 500” (+10.2%) and ever-burgeoning Oil (+16.5%).  Note, too, that the Dollar is +3.2%, contra to the conventional wisdom that it is negative-correlated to Gold, (which as you know plays no currency favourites).  Still, ’tis proof once again that the Buck gets a bid when interest rates are up.  Thus “francly” for the Swiss, ’tis become a complete miss following the Schweizerische Nationalbank’s rate cut as we disclosed a week ago:

Nearer-term in comparing Gold’s trend to those of all the BEGOS Markets, let’s go ’round their horn for the past 21 trading days (one month).  Therein we see the components’ “Baby Blues” depicting the day-to-day consistency of each grey linear regression trendline.  And as aforementioned, Gold’s blue dots are dropping, as is the case for every market, except Oil.  Oh to be sure, Gold’s trend clearly is up; however as those leftmost several days drop off the chart, the slope of the grey trendline shall become less steep.  And as you long-time readers and website followers well know:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes”, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means some Gold selling near-term wouldn’t be untoward).  Here’s the graphic, (the “Spoo” essentially being the “never go down” S&P 500):

As to the StateSide economy, ’twas another week of rather “split” results for the Economic Barometer:  of the 12 incoming metrics, six improved period-over-period, which means six did not so do.  We were a bit alarmed to see February’s Personal Spending leap +0.8% (from +0.2%) even as Personal Income slowed to +0.3% (from +1.0%).  Paying more these days for the same stuff?

Moreover, yesterday (Friday) brought the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures data, (which given the holiday shan’t face markets’ reactions until Monday).  February’s headline PCE increased +0.3%, the most since September, whilst the Core reading also increased +0.3%, the second-most since September.  Thus the trend of inflation across the past five reported months (Oct-Fed) is rising.

Thus in turn, ’tis no wonder that the FinMedia “call” for three FedFunds rate cuts this year is being subtly scaled back to one … or none … (or are rate hikes not done?)  Too, the Baro recorded further “contraction” in March’s Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index as well as a pullback in the Conference Board’s measure of Consumer Confidence.  Are you confident?  Or is the notion of stagflation becoming an agitation?  Here’s our year-over-year Econ Baro view, the “Casino 500” yet to encounter its Waterloo:

Through it all as the economy potentially stagflates sans imminent relief for interest rates — with the three-month annualized yield of the U.S. Treasury Bill (5.2035%) nearly four times higher than that of the “Casino 500” (1.384%) — the Investing Age of Stoopid nonetheless rolls upward in comprehensive ignorance to an S&P 500 lacking both earnings support (the live price/earnings ratio now 46.9x) and monetary coverage (the market capitalization/money supply ratio now 2.2x).  Scary continues!

Comforting, however, are the yellow metal’s underlying layers of trading support as we turn to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Note:  the labeled Gold supports are basis the June contract — inclusive of its +21 points of fresh premium (June Gold having settled at 2255) — as April is now put to rest:

And proudly pointing to Gold’s new All-Time High is the happy guy in our 15-year view by the month of the layered price structure.  This year’s Gold goal remains as shown at 2375:

To close — given that the yellow metal is at an All-Time High — nothing could be more appropriate to wrap than with The Gold Stack, with the June contract but one row below debasement valuation:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3719
JUNE Gold Currently:  2255, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 30 points)
Trading Support (basis June):  2241 / 2232 / 2228 / 2211 / 2199 / 2186 / 2183
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2234 (28 March 2024)
2024’s High:  2234 (28 March)
10-Session directional range:  up to 2234 (from 2149) = +85 points or +4.0%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2234 (28 March 2024)
Trading Resistance:  (none)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet (basis June):  2202
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2023
2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  1983 and rising
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

So there we’ve missive No. 750 as magnificently aligned with a Gold All-Time High.  Will it get any better?  ‘Course ’twill!  Just make sure you make your move with Gold!

Cheers!

 …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro