Mark

Into quarter-end, we’ve at present the Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are Silver and Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Updating our Market Values in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components, there are some remarkable deviations therein: we’ve the Bond +6^30 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.027 points “high”, Gold -281 points “low”, Oil -21.22 points “low” and the Spoo +316 points “high”. Notably at Market Profiles, the Swiss Franc (1.246) is trading just beneath is most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight (1.247); Oil is right on same at 70.00. The Econ Baro wraps the first half of 2026 with June’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

Both the Euro and Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update graphically depicts price having returned to Fair Value, which currently is 3979; ’twas interesting to note the buying surge upon having reached Fair Value, price having since traded (on Friday) to as high as 4112. The Spoo is getting a bid today, at present +0.8% even as by Market Trends the linreg continues to further its negativity; and it remains the case across all of the BEGOS components (except for the Bond) that the linregs are negative. The Bond, at this moment “unch” at 114^04, is trading just above a volume-dominant Market Profile apex of 114^02. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of what may be an unsteady week of 11 incoming metrics with few by “consensus” expected to improve.

Presently, Copper, Oil and the Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday’s release of PCE data for May continued to find it above the annualized Fed target of +2%, further supporting a rate hike case for 29 July. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are in real-time at their lowest level since 08 April, lending we sense to continuance of a -10% correction for the S&P 500, although a break below the 09 June low of 7247 would add substance to that notion. Obviously tomorrow’s 867th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall highlight price having returned to Fair Value. Silver’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. And the Econ Baro finishes its week with May’s revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey.

Gold has returned down to Fair Value, that level now 3979 as it incorporates the just-released “M2” data update from the Fed: Gold both yesterday and thus far today has traded to as low as 3976. At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve just the Bond outside (below) its Neutral Zone, even as price yesterday moved above volume-dominant Market Profile resistance at 112^28 to now 113^31; overall session volatility is again light, in this case expectedly so with “Fed-favoured” PCE data inflation data for May due today. By Market Trends, save for the Bond, the 21-day linregs of the other seven BEGOS components are negative: this is not too surprising given the increase in the Dollar Index through these past several weeks in anticipation of a Fed rate hike as soon as 29 July. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. And amongst other metrics due today for the Econ Baro are the final read for Q1 GDP, plus May’s Durable Orders and Personal Income/Spending.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Spoo settled yesterday below its Market Magnet for the first time since 11 June, indicative of still lower levels near-term, which fits with our notion of the S&P 500 itself en route to a -10% correction into the 6800s; too, the Spoo by Market Trends has rotated in real-time to its most negative slant (mild as ’tis) since 09 April; and by Market Values, the Spoo in real-time is +254 points above its smooth valuation line. Silver today has traded to its lowest level (60.75) since 05 December; and Gold’s low (thus far) today at 4067 is +115 points above Fair Value (3952). For the Econ Baro we’ve May’s New Home Sales and Q1’s Current Account Deficit.

The Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo all are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point is mostly moderate. The S&P 500 is showing signs of resuming what well can be a -10% correction down into the 6800s: by the Spoo (adj’d for Fair Value), the S&P at this instant would print -1.1% at the open; too, the Spoo yesterday fell through its most volume-dominate supporter at 7564 (see Market Profiles); and the Spoo’s 21-day linreg has again rotated to negative for the second time in the last two weeks; the S&P’s futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 48.8x; by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Spoo’s best has been (on a both the 10-test and 24 test bases) the 2hr Price Oscillator. Gold at 4131 has reduced to now being +179 points above its Fair Value (3952); and Silver at 62.30 is nearing its recent (11 June) low of 61.60. Again, nothing is on today’s slate for the Econ Baro.

The Friday-to-Monday session continues for the BEGOS Markets, now finding at present the Bond, Swiss Franc, and Spoo below their Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same, and session volatility (inclusive too of Friday) still is moderate. The Gold Update depicts price as having completed a 14th week of parabolic Short trend, (and Silver her 20th); covered as well is BEGOS components’ general market confusion with respect to trends signaling less frequently, and so forth; too therein, the Economic Barometer is suggestive of a top being put in place, as well for the S&P 500. And specific to the Econ Baro, 10 metrics are due for this week, albeit none until Wednesday: the key number shall be Thursday’s “Fed-favoured” PCE for May, thus completing our inflation puzzle for that month.

As previously noted, StateSide physical bourses are closed today, however the BEGOS Markets are trading an abbreviated Friday session for Monday settlement. And at present — save for Oil which is above its Neutral Zone for today — the seven other BEGOS components are below same; session volatility is firmly moderate; extended USA/IRN et alia negotiations have for the moment been halted. Tomorrow brings the 866th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal this past week having moved lower toward Fair Value. By Market Trends, the Spoo’s 21-day linreg — after having rotated from positive to negative (11 June) and then back to positive (15 June) is today (in real-time) virtually flat, indicative that the S&P 500’s correction toward the 6800s may increase its downside pace; the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 48.2x and the yield 1.094%.

‘Tis the final full trading day of the week for physical StateSide bourses; the BEGOS Markets via GLOBEX have abbreviated sessions tomorrow, but all for Monday settlement. As anticipated, the FOMC voted (indeed unanimously) to maintain the FedFunds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% target range via a radically-revised and shortened Policy Statement; our sense for the moment remains the Fed shall pull the trigger come the 29 July Statement, especially should next week’s reporting of the “Fed-favoured” PCE Index for May continue above target. At present, six of the eight BEGOS Markets are above today’s Neutral Zones, Copper being within and Oil below same; session volatility is moderate. Looking at the 21-day linregs (see Market Trends) for all the BEGOS components, six of the eight are moderately negative, the two exceptions being Copper and the Spoo, both mildly positive. We’ve not ruled out the S&P 500 resuming what can be a -10% correction into the 6800s given a Fed rate increase(s) in the inevitable balance. Incoming metrics to close out the Econ Baro’s week include June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Early into “Fed Day” we’ve both Copper and the Spoo presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is understandably quite light. By Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, in real-time the Bond is 3^28 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro 0.025 points “high”, Gold -139 points “low”, Oil -21.11 points “low”, and the Spoo +383 points “high”. By the latter’s Market Profile, the most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 7630 with like support at 7497; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 47.9x and the yield 1.115%; that for the “risk-free” annualized three-month T-Bill is 3.630%, (better than 3x the “all-to-risk” S&P). The Econ Baro looks to May’s Retail and Pending Home Sales, as well as April’s Business Inventories. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s “no rate change” Policy Statement, albeit we think ’twill pull the trigger six weeks hence on 29 July.

The volatility of yesterday has notably quieted into today, Oil being the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone, and overall session volatility is thus light to this point. An interesting observance from yesterday’s +1.7% gain in the S&P 500: as measured by Moneyflow, just two stocks (MU and NVDA) accounted for some +50% of the Index’s gain; otherwise the breadth for the session was 51% up and 49% down, the point being just as two stocks can easily drive the S&P up, they also can drive it well down. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for August at a discount of -1.30 points; by Market Values (in real-time), Oil is -16.68 points below its smooth valuation line; and by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, Oil’s best on a 10-test basis has been the 4hr Price Oscillator, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis been the 2hr MoneyFlow. For the Econ Baro today we’ve May’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.

With “war-deal euphoria” in the air, this morning’s BEGOS Markets directions are predictable: seven of the eight are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, the sole component below same of course being Oil, (and thus too the Dollar Index); volatility for the session is moderate. The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s key negative trends, suggesting (even as price today is currently up to 4326) that a return to Fair Value (3949) is reasonable to expect. The Spoo’s up-gap opening today — combined with an additional 63 points of price premium as volume rolls from the June cac into that for September — is sufficient to stem the linreg trend having rotated to negative last week; today’s positive price push is flipping the Spoo’s daily parabolics from Short back to Long, however that doesn’t nix our notion that the S&P 500 itself shall soon return to corrective mode with the 6800s in mind. The Econ Baro begins a week of 15 incoming metrics with June’s NY Empire State and NAHB Housing Market Indices, plus May’s IndProd/CapUtil.

Gold is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. After trading to the year’s low (4046) yesterday, Gold intra-day recovered nearly +200 points; either way, is Gold returning to Fair Value ’round 3948? More in tomorrow’s 865th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are currently dominated by both Copper and Gold: on a 10-test basis, the Top Three rankings are Copper’s 2hr Parabolics, Gold’s daily Moneyflow and Copper’s 2hr MACD; for the 24-test basis they are Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator and again the 2hr MACD, plus Gold’s 1hr MACD. For the Euro, Swiss Franc and non-BEGOS Yen, cac volume is rolling from June into that for September. And the Econ Baro concludes its week with June’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

We’ve fresh Gold lows for the year, the yellow metal having today reached down to 4046, albeit ’tis since bounced to now 4107, indeed back inside of today’s Neutral Zone; below same is Oil whilst above same is the Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been the daily Moneyflow which flipped to Short effective 28 April’s opening at 4698; too, by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropped below their key +80% axis back on 22 April, price having settled that session at 4758. And per its Market Profile, Gold’s “nearby” volume-dominant resistors are 4193, 4289, 4318 and 4352. today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) being 115 points. Econ Baro incoming metrics for today include May’s PPI, (the month’s “Fed-favoured” PCE not coming due until 25 June during the week following the FOMC’s next Policy Statement of 17 June).

Gold, Copper, Oil and the Spoo are all presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility again is pushing toward moderate. By Market Values, the Bond yesterday settled above its smooth valuation line for the first time since 02 March, albeit as yields have been a bit pressured, price itself has not spent too many days above valuation going back a year or so-to-date. Indeed in going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components, the Bond shows as +0^14 points “high”, the Euro as -0.003 points “low”, Gold as -357 points “low”, Oil as -9.97 points “low” and the Spoo as +114 points “high”; by Market Trends, the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend looks to rotate to negative by week’s-end. The S&P 500 after having been technically “textbook overbought” through 42 consecutive trading days finally unwound that condition yesterday; ‘course, fundamentally the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 46.2x remains stratospheric. The May inflation parade beings today as the Econ Baro looks to the CPI, plus late in the session comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

At present we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same is Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. In concert with the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” now in full cascade (see Market Trends), the S&P 500 (following Friday’s -2.6% fall) yesterday attempted a “relief rally”, at one point having recovered +1.1%, to then settle but +0.3%; our sense remains a fairly near-term return for the S&P down to at least the 6800s, especially as other entities eventually perceive the current rotation of trend toward negative; the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been its 30mn MACD, and by Market Values (in real-time), the Spoo is +176 points above its smooth valuation line. Today’s Econ Baro awaits May’s Existing Home Sales, plus April’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories.

The Bond, Gold and Silver are below today’s Neutral Zones, whereas Oil and the Spoo are above same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. The Gold Update cites price’s ongoing negative stance, Gold at this instant (4321) actually now down -0.3% year-to-date. And even as the S&P 500 is poised (via the Spoo) to open higher on the heels of Friday’s -2.6% decline — the biggest one-day drop thus far in 2026 — the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are now in full cascade such that we can see an S&P high-to-low correction of at least -10% down into the 6800s as detailed in The Gold Update; too, despite Friday’s demise, the S&P is entering a 42nd consecutive trading day of being “textbook overbought”. Ten incoming metrics are due this week for the Econ Baro, albeit none are on the slate for today.

Let’s start with the Spoo: yesterday we wrote its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency “provisionally” had moved below their key +80% axis; however, come settle, they did not “confirm” as such; regardless, today they are at present again provisionally below -80%, price itself beneath its Neutral Zone for today, as is the case for all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate. The balance of the BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. In looking to Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our top three are Copper’s 1hr MACD, Gold’s daily Moneyflow and Oil’s 30mn EMA; on a 24-test basis Copper owns the top three positions by its 30mn Price Oscillator, 2hr MACD and 2hr Parabolics; Copper’s 21-day linreg still is positively sloped, however the “Baby Blues” are falling such that the trend can rotate to negative during next week. The Econ Baro wraps its week with May’s Payrolls data, plus late in the session comes April’s Consumer Credit.

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Copper and Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. In real-time, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” which depict linreg consistency are finally breaking down, now provisionally below the key +80% axis; should this be confirmed by session’s end, we’d expect at least initially a drop from here (7544) toward the mid-7400s — which percentage-wise is not that substantive a pullback — but by pricing structure, 7300 appears plausible as does 7279 given the extreme overvaluation of the S&P 500 both technically and obviously fundamentally; as usual, mind the “Baby Blues” on the Market Trends page. Gold, albeit up today, is still in a “mild” downtrend: of technical note, Gold’s weekly Price Oscillator looks to go negative at some point during next week. For the Econ Baro today (along with the usual Thursday Initial Jobless Claims) we’ve the revision to Q1’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

As noted yesterday, just a momentary comment today: we’ve weakness in the the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold, and strength in Oil. Another record high close yesterday for the S&P 500. The Econ Baro awaits ADP Employment data, Factory Orders and the ISM(Svc) Index. Addendum at 16:58 CET: we’ve returned to our post; the Econ Baro data today was improved for all three reports; later in the session comes the Fed’s “Tan Tome”; and with the exception of Oil, we’ve weakness across the board today for the seven other BEGOS Markets, albeit the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) are still buoyant above the key +80% axis; however their remaining there — we sense — is short-lived.

Currently we’ve the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are Oil and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. ‘Twas another record-setting day yesterday for the S&P 500, the intra-day high being 7618 and settle at 7600: the Index is now 37 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” and “extremely so”; by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +391 points above its smooth valuation line; by Market Rhythms, the Spoo’s best study for pure swing consistency is its 12hr Moneyflow (10-test basis); or if targeting a fixed number of Spoo points, the daily EMA has gained a minimum of 52 points (Long or Short) through its last 10 swings. Nothing is on tap today for the Econ Baro. Note to readers: we are going “in motion” over the next 36 hours or so; tonight’s Tue-Wed work will be run at a minimum level and tomorrow’s commentary may be off-timed and quite brief or later updated; we plan that through the Wed-Thu night work all shall be back to normal.

The new week finds the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update cites the gyrating ways of Gold these days whilst still within a general downtrend since the January All-Time High (5586); too, the weekly Parabolic Short trend mains in place, now entering its 12th week. Were the S&P 500 to open at the instant, ‘twould be at a record high of 7604 give the Spoo still on the upside move this morning.; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) have yet to break below their key +80% axis. 13 incoming metrics are on the Econ Baro’s docket for this week, beginning today with May’s ISM(Mfg) Index and Construction Spending for April.

Oil is presently the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility for the session is light. Yesterday’s “core” PCE for April was sufficiently “Fed-friendly” that the FOMC likely sit on their hands come the 17 June Policy Statement, even as other inflation measures support a FedFunds rate increase: more tomorrow in the 863rd consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. Looking in real-time at the five primary BEGOS components’ Market Values, we’ve: the Bond just -0^23 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.012 points “low”, Gold -163 points “low”, Oil -11.19 points “low, and the Spoo +411 points “high”. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 49.6x and the yield 1.091% vs. the annualized 3mo T-Bill’s 3.590%. The Econ Baro concludes its week with May’s Chi PMI.

Oil is the only BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Gold, Silver and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably having already traded 107% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are in decline for every BEGOS component except for the Bond; those for the Spoo barely are falling, yet remain above the key +80% axis, (their actual level in real-time is +82% after having been as high as +93% last week). The S&P 500 established a marginal record closing high yesterday (7520), albeit the intra-day high was not a record. A bevy of incoming metrics arrive today for the Econ Baro, including the first revision to Q1’s GDP, plus April’s Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending and the “Fed-Favoured” PCE inflation gauge.

The Bond is the only BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and session volatility is light. Yesterday, the S&P 500 made both record intra-day (7539) and closing (7519) highs: the Index is now “textbook overbought” through the last 33 consecutive trading days, and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 49.1x. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg “consistency” have barely been treading water these last several days just above +80%, which we continue to mind for a breakdown toward lower price levels; the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been (on a 10-test basis) its 2hr Price Oscillator and (on a 24-test basis) its 2hr Parabolics. Cac volume for Gold is rolling from June into that for August with +33 points of fresh premium, whilst that for the Bond is rolling from June into September at a -0^16 points discount. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of tomorrow’s “Fed-Favoured” PCE inflation gauge for April.

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues, the Spoo still poised to pull the S&P 500 up to a record high were it to open at this instant, albeit not as robustly so as we saw 24 hours ago; the Spoo is now some -30 points off its intrasession high of 7570. The Metals Triumvirate has all its elements back inside today’s Neutral Zones, while still above same are the Bond, Euro and Spoo; Oil -5.2% remains beneath its Neutral Zone. Overall session volatility still is moderate for the two days combined. The Bond and Oil continue being the best two correlated (negative) of the five primary BEGOS components, although there is firm positive correlation between the Euro and Gold. 10 incoming metrics are due for the Econ Baro as the week unfolds, beginning today with Consumer Confidence for May.

The Spoo has reached an all-time high this morning at 7565, spurred (’tis said) by a potential two-month ceasefire in the USA/IRN war. StateSide (Memorial Day) and EuroSide (Pentecost) physical bourses are closed; however were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould so do at a record high 7543. The BEGOS Markets are all trading for Tuesday settlement, six of the eight at present above their Neutral Zones for the session, the two exceptions being Copper (within) and Oil (below), the latter being the largest mover thus far -5.7% at 91.47; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update graphically depicts both precious metals as being in year-to-date linear regression downtrends even as record highs were established back in late January. Q1 Earnings Season has concluded with 80% of S&P reporting constituents having bettered their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; ex-COVID recovery, this Q1 was the best quarter for year-over-year percentage of improved constituents since Q3 of 2018. There are holiday trading halts for the Bond and Spoo at 17:00 GMT, and for the Metals and Oil at 18:30 GMT; the Currencies go the distance to 21:00 GMT.

Both Copper and the Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility into “Getaway Friday” is quite light. As this week has unfolded, the S&P 500’s daily Parabolics and MACD have taken on negative readings; too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) for linreg consistency have in real-time dropped another notch to +83%, their key line-in-the-sand being +80%. Going ’round the horn for the five primary BEGOS components’ Market Values in real-time: we see the Bond -3^21 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.023 points “low”, Gold -240 points “low”, Oil in line with its Market Value, and the Spoo +351 points “high”. For the Econ Baro we’ve the revision to May’s UoM Sentiment Survey, plus April’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. And ’tis the final day of Q1 Earnings Season. Tomorrow comes the 862nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Monday brings limited trading hours for the BEGOS Markets given Memorial Day StateSide and Pentecost on this side of The Pond.

Copper is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again mostly light. Copper at 6.2835 is trading below its most volume-dominant Market Profile price (6.3050) through which it fell yesterday; too by Market Trends, Copper’s linreg remains positive as ’tis been since 13 April, but is now lacking puff; (as previously noted, that for the Spoo too remains positive, but the upside consistency is becoming less so); Copper’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on both the 10-test and 24-test bases has been the 30mn Price Oscillator: indeed per the last 16 swings, price by that Rhythm (with the benefit of hindsight) as achieved intra-trade profit of at least 0.048 points ($1,200/cac) 13 times. The Econ Baro looks to metrics including May’s Philly Fed Index and April’s Housing Starts/Permits.

Silver is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light. The Spoo yesterday settled below its Market Magnet (7416), suggestive of still lower prices near-term; as noted, we’re minding the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) for the Blues to break below the key +80% which now looks to occur as soon as tomorrow, following which price ought further fall; the Blues have not produced a signal for the Spoo since the Long suggestion back on 02 April, price opening that day at 6619. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best correlation remains negative between the Bond and Oil. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And late in the session comes the FOMC Minutes from its 28/29 April meeting.

The Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other three BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, we’re minding the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency: whilst they remain well-above the key +80% axis, they are nonetheless in the early signs of decline, barring the Spoo racing back up towards its all-time high (7540 v.s current 7409); by Market Rhythms the Spoo’s best for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis has been the 15mn Price Oscillator, whereas on a 24-test basis ’tis been the 2hr Price Oscillator; and by its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight is 7421, which is about the midpoint of today’s trading range thus far. The sole incoming metric today for the Econ Baro is April’s Pending Home Sales.

Presently, the Bond, Copper and Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The Gold Update sees price’s downtrend as remaining in force, be it by the near-term 21-linreg trend (see Market Trends) or the broader-term weekly Parabolics, the prior week’s rally thus having been one of “relief”. The Spoo appears en route to recording a second consecutive down day, which across the prior 33 trading days (from 31 March) has only twice occurred; the S&P 500 itself of course remains technically overbought through the last 27 trading days as well as fundamentally overvalued, indeed vastly so via the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this instant of 47.9x. Due for the Econ Baro is the NAHB Housing Index for May. And this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season.

The Dollar’s firm week has it up to its highest level (99.110) since 01 April; thus ’tis no surprise to see the BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) working lower: at present, the Bond, EuroCurrencies, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo are all below today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is above same, and its cac volume is rolling from June into that for July at a -4.20 points discount. Gold’s 21-day linreg remains negative (see Market Trends) and the weekly parabolic Short trend looks to complete its ninth week as we’ll see in tomorrow’s 861st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 closed above 7500 yesterday for the first time, the intra-day high (7517) finding the “live” P/E at 49.9x; the yield on the Index is 1.066% vs. 3.588% annualized on the “risk-free” U.S. three-month T-Bill. The Econ Baro finishes its week with May’s NY State Empire Index and April’s IndProd/CapUtil. And there remains one week still to run in Q1 Earnings Season.

Inflation is running sufficiently “hot” such that under just-appointed FedHead Warsh the FOMC “ought” raise rates per its next Policy Statement (17 June); on verra… At present, we’ve Copper as the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and session volatility is again light. The Spoo yesterday moved well-above volume-dominant Market Profile resistance at 7421: its current 7488 price is (in real-time) +516 points above its BEGOS Market Value, such equating the P/E of the S&P 500 to 49.5x, the Index itself yesterday completing a 25th consecutive session as “textbook overbought” whilst posting a record high at 7460. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets is negative between the Bond and Oil. For the Econ Baro we await metrics including April’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus March’s Business Inventories.

Presently, both the Euro and Oil are below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whist the Spoo is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Over the past couple of years we’ve in The Gold Update said that the Fed need raise rates: that may soon come to pass given the continued ramping up of inflation; (the next FOMC Policy Statement is due 17 June). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our top three (10-test basis) have been Gold’s daily Moneyflow, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 30mn Moneyflow and the Bond’s 1hr MACD; too (on a 24-test basis) they are the Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow, Oil’s 2hr MACD and Silver’s 30mn Parabolics. Silver has been firmly breaking out to the upside, indeed +25% across just the past 11 trading days low-to-high inclusive. And the Econ Baro awaits wholesale inflation for April via the PPI.

Seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are at present in the red, six of which are below today’s Neutral Zones; the lower Bond is within same and Oil is the sole up component at 99.45 and above its Neutral Zone; session volatility is again mostly moderate. The Bond (112^23) yesterday failed to hold Market Profile volume-dominant support at 113^06, and price moved beneath the Market Magnet; by Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the Bond’s best on a 10-test basis has been its 1hr MACD and on a 24-test basis the 15mn Price Oscillator. For the Precious Metals, at Market Trends Gold’s 21-day linreg still is negative, however that for Silver has rotated to positive, even as price is lower thus far today. April’s CPI and Treasury Budget come due for the Econ Baro.

The Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Copper and Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update queries if last week’s rally was one of “relief” given the 21-day linregs for both Gold and Silver remain negative, but less so as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising (see Market Trends); cited too is our long-ongoing concern of the S&P 500’s extreme overvaluation; by the Spoo’s BEGOS Market Value in real-time, ’tis +532 points above the smooth valuation line and the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 48.1x. That stated, substantive money has been getting thrown into the S&P: per our MoneyFlow page, all three time gauges (weekly, monthly and quarterly) suggest the S&P can continue higher still by a few hundred points, (barring this being a “blow-off top”). ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 15 incoming metrics scheduled, beginning today with April’s Existing Home Sales.

The EuroCurrencises, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets runs from mild for the Bond to robust for Copper, the latter having thus far traced 169% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Copper’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) the 30mn Moneyflow and (on a 24-test basis) the daily MACD; too, the daily MACD in swinging has reached at least 0.10 targeted (in hindsight) points across the last 10 swings in-a-row. Gold (4740) has moved well-up from its Monday low of 4510: more on the precious metals in tomorrow’s 860th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Today the Econ Baro awaits April’s Payrolls data, May’s UoM Sentiment Survey, and March’s Wholesale Inventories.

Record highs continue for the S&P 500, yesterday achieving 7369: the futs-adj’d “live” P/E at this moment is 46.7x and the yield is down to 1.076%. Presently, both Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones; otherwise, the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. By Market Trends, we’ve positive 21-day linregs for the Swiss Franc, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; thus they are negative for the Bond, Euro, Gold and Silver. Oil yesterday settled below its Market Magnet for the first time since 20 April as well as below its smooth valuation line for the first time since 27 April, both suggestive of still lower prices near-term; Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is its 30mn Moneyflow. The Econ Baro’s incoming metrics include March’s Consumer Credit and Construction Spending, plus the latter’s (delayed) for February, and the initial read of Q1’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

‘Tis a moderate-to-robust volatile start to Wednesday with seven of the eight BEGOS Markets at present above their day’s respective Neutral Zones, the sole component below being Oil. Gold is up better than +100 points, however by Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are still falling, as are those for Silver; since The Gold Update’s (25 April) anticipation for lower Gold prices, the yellow metal has dropped by as much as -4.6%, notwithstanding this second session of “relief rally”; currently 4677, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 4725 (see Market Profiles). The S&P 500 continues to make record highs (7273) even as the Index is now 19 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”: by Market Values in real-time, the Spoo is +505 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro we’ve April’s ADP Employment data.

A bit tardy this morning given an internet “slowdown”. For the moment, we’ve all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate above today’s Neutral Zones, as is the Spoo. The other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The precious metals’ recovery thus far today is not enough to stem the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency from further falling in real-time, (see Market Trends). As to our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the 10-test leaders have been Gold’s daily Moneyflow, the Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow and Copper’s 8hr Moneyflow; for the 24-test basis they are Silver’s 15mn for both its Moneyflow and MACD, plus the Bond’s 1hr Moneyflow. The Econ Baro awaits April’s ISM(Svc) Index, March’s Trade Deficit and New Home Sales, plus the latter (delayed) for February.

The Bond, Gold and Oil are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro and Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. The Gold Update takes a mildly cautious stance on the precious metals, both of which though Friday are up +6.8% year-to-date, having of course been substantially higher in late January; at Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to drop, whereas those for Silver are momentarily hesitant; by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) -158 points below its smooth valuation line; too by the deMeadville EMAs, the 21-day has crossed beneath the 89-day, plus the daily Parabolics, MACD, Price Oscillator and Moneyflow are all negatively positioned. The Spoo for the moment would elicit a higher open later today for the S&P 500. And ’tis a busy week for the Econ Baro beginning with March’s Factory Orders.