Both the Bond and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo, and volatility is mostly moderate, Oil being a bit of a laggard with just a 26% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). @deMeadvillePro tweets Oil’s 2-hr. MACD as having been a super Market Rhythm these past six weeks: of note, the average swing duration of the study is some 1 1/2 days (24 swings tested). Our S&P 500 MoneyFlow page continues to reflect the massive amount of money being thrown into the Index, the notable inflows yesterday going to NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and AMZN; (outflows were most for MSFT and AVGO). The (futs-adj’d) “live” P/E of the S&P is 55.6x; (the publicly “parroted” P/E is 24.3x). Today’s Econ Baro awaits May’s Chicago PMI. The Fed’s Tan Tome arrives late in the session.
The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, finding Gold (not surprisingly) below its Neutral Zone for today, as are Silver, Copper and the Euro; above same is the Bond, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond notably having traced 117% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold’s contract rollover from June to August adds 19 points to price, reflective of broader bullish sentiment for the yellow metal, even as near-term price looks to fall (again per the current edition of the Gold Update). At Market Values, Gold (in real-time) shows as -49 points “low” and the Spoo as +149 points “high”. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence.
The BEGOS Markets are into a two-day trading session (Tuesday settlement) as StateSide ’tis Memorial Day, and on this side of The Pond we’ve Whit Monday. There is little markets’ reaction to the tentative U.S. debt ceiling “deal” which still must pass Congressional muster: Copper is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone at present. Gold confirms its weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Long to Short. The Gold Update cites our near-term downside target zone for the yellow metal, notably selecting the 1893 level within the overall broad structural support from 1975 to 1810, within which we’ve Golden Ratio support from 1912 to 1874. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 56.0x. And contract volume for the Bond is rolling from June into September, whilst for Gold ’tis rolling from June into August.
The metals triumvirate are above their Neutral Zones at present; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold’s weekly Parabolics have provisionally flipped from Long to Short: in tomorrow’s 706th Edition of The Gold Update we’ll look at “how low is low”. As noted earlier, the MACD has also provisionally gone Short. In tandem, the Dollar Index has crept above the 104 level for the first time since 17 March (Gold then 1994 vs. today’s 1950). ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro as we get the Fed’s favoured inflation metric of April’s Core PCE Prices (which we’ll also assess in tomorrow’s missive); other metrics include the month’s Personal Income/Spending and Durable Orders.
The Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Our “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E for the S&P is 51.7x and the yield is 1.644%; that for the 3-month T-Bill is 5.185%. Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-swing test our best study is Gold’s Daily Price Oscillator, whilst on a 24-swing test basis ’tis the Bond’s 2-hr. Parabolics. The Spoo now at 4138 is right on its Market Profile’s most heavily traded price of the past two weeks. Included for the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s Pending Home Sales, plus the second view of Q1’s GDP. Fitch is weighing a downgrade of the StateSide credit rating.
Silver and Copper are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Copper which has already traced 64% of its EDTR, (see Market Ranges). Despite yesterday’s S&P pullback, the Spoo remains the only BEGOS component in positive linear regression, (see Market Trends); the Index itself is mildly “textbook overbought”; key Market Profile trading support for the Spoo is 4138. ‘Tis another quiet day for the Econ Baro, however the FOMC Minutes from the 02-03 May meeting come due.
The Swiss Franc plus all three components of the metals’ triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is mostly moderate. Gold has traded thus far today to as low as 1956, (the prior week’s low being 1954); as previously noted, should 1942 trade before week’s end, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall flip to Short. Money continues to pour into the S&P 500: per our MoneyFlow page, the forward readings range from 100-to-600 points higher, albeit weak earnings combined with relative high interest rates ought actually see the S&P move materially lower. The rise in the Econ Baro these past three weeks certainly suggests the FOMC shall continue to raise rates. And today the Baro looks to April’s New Home Sales.
The BEGOS Markets begin the week with weakness in both Copper and Oil, the two components at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today. The Gold Update cites our being wrong about the yellow metal’s imminent rise to an All-Time High (i.e. above 2089, which still stands from 07 August 2020); instead, the weekly parabolic trend would flip from Long to Short this week were 1942.1 to trade, (price currently is 1977); too, Gold’s weekly MACD is provisionally crossing to negative. Q1 Earnings Season concludes with 56% of the reporting S&P 500 constituents having improved their bottom lines from a year ago: ex-COVID reporting periods, that is the second-weakest quarterly improvement since Q3 of 2017, (and in turns lends to why our “live” P/E for the S&P is now 52.2x). ‘Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro with most incoming metrics due toward week’s end.
Following yesterday’s fallout across all of the BEGOS Markets — except for the Spoo — we’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. At Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +136 points above its smooth valuation line; Oil is better than -4 points below same. And at Market Trends, the Spoo is now the sole component sporting positive linear regression. The Econ Baro has already wrapped up a positive week. And today is the final day of Q1 Earnings Season, (we’ll have S&P 500-specific details in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update).
Silver is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again light. The Spoo yesterday worked up through its Market Profile 4135-4138 resistance zone, indeed reaching above our “high if an up day” for the first time since 05 May. However, the lack of growth in Q1 Earnings Season has pushed the “live” P/E of the S&P up to (futs adj’d) 52.3x; the Index’s yield is 1.609% versus that (annualized) for the 3-month T-Bill’s 5.088%. Of note per Market Ranges, EDTRs on balance are narrowing, certainly so for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and the Spoo. For the Econ Baro, today’s metrics include May’s Philly Fed Index, plus April’s Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
Copper is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; otherwise, session volatility is light. Based on the rapid recent rise in the Econ Baro — plus inflation remaining at large — we don’t see the Fed making the FinMedia anticipated “pause” anytime soon. The precious metals are caught in the overall decline of all the BEGOS components as the Dollar gets a renewed bid. In fact, Gold is now the only component still sporting a positive linear regression trend (see Market Trends), although its “Baby Blues” of consistency are falling. Notably for the Spoo, by its Market Profile, the 1435-1438 zone shows as overhead trading resistance. A meager Q1 Earnings Season comes to a close at week’s end. And the Econ Baro today looks to April’s Housing Starts/Permits.
The precious metals’ recent weakness is continuing this morning, with both Gold and Silver at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is Copper. Above same is the Bond, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. By our Market Trends page, only two of the BEGOS Markets are in positive (albeit weakening) linear regression: the Bond and Gold. In looking at Market Rhythms, the best consistency — on a 10-swing test basis — is for the Bond by both its 2hr. MACD and 2hr. Parabolic studies; on the 24-swing test basis ’tis Oil’s 2hr. MACD and its 4hr. Parabolics. Today’s load of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include May’s NAHB Housing Index, April’s Retail Sales, IndProd/CapUtil, and March’s Business Inventories.
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and the Spoo are at present above their Neutral Zones for today to start the week for the BEGOS Markets; below same is the Bond, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update emphasizes Silver’s selling last week as being overdone vis-à-vis the slippage in the other metals; indeed this morning, Gold, Silver and Copper all are up a bit early on; and specific to Silver, she finished Friday 1.30 points — an extreme deviation — below her Market Magnet. In looking at Market Values, only Oil is notably deviated from its smooth valuation line, by nearly -8 points. And the Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week with May’s NY State Empire Index.
Oil is the BEGOS Markets’ weak link this morning, at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Silver yesterday took its worse high-to-low points shellacking since 09 March 2022, the intraday move being -1.375 points (-5.7%); more in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update. By Market Rhythms, our most consistent (10-swing test basis) at present is the Swiss Franc’s 1hr. Moneyflow study, whilst per the 24-swing test basis ’tis Oil’s 2hr. MACD. The Econ Baro concludes the week’s inflation data with April’s Ex/Im Prices, plus the UofM Sentiment Survey.
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is already moderate-to-robust, Copper notably having thus far traded 121% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Copper’s linear regression appears as the most negative of the components. The Gold/Silver ratio at 80.4x is provisionally higher than ’tis been since 06 April. Our “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) for the S&P is 53.2x; the yield is 1.623% versus that of 5.065% for the U.S. 3-month T-Bill. Amongst today’s inputs for the Econ Baro is April’s PPI.
At present we’ve both Copper and Oil below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is the Bond; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is yet again mostly light, the sole exception being Copper having traced 85% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday, the S&P 500 itself traded its narrowest points range (14) since the half-day session of last 25 November, and since the full-day session of 24 August 2021: we expect this puts emphasis on the inflation data reports over these next three days, (CPI today, PPI tomorrow, Ex/Im Prices on Friday). Awaiting the Econ Baro as well for today is April’s Treasury Budget.
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; otherwise, volatility is again mostly light. Of note for Market Rhythms, leading the pack for consistency (of the 405 studies tested per night) is the Bond’s 1hr MACD. We had quite the surprise in seeing the P/E for the S&P 500 leap to its present level of 78.7x; it now appears that was due to a data broadcaster error which is being assessed; regardless, the still high “live” level of 54.2x is validated by the low level of incoming Q1 Earnings even as share prices remain extraordinarily high: see too our S&P Valuation and Rankings page for the cap-weighted truth. Whilst nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, StateSide debt ceiling discussions are said to get underway today.
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update graphically highlights the yellow metal’s near miss at making an All-Time High this past Thursday, but that price’s trend remains up such as to anticipate the threshold being broken as the current weekly parabolic Long trend continues to unfold. Oil, which traded as low as the 63s this past week, sees its price (now 72.08) nonetheless some 5 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro starts its week with March’s Wholesale Inventories.
Both the Euro and Oil are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Swiss Franc, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light with April’s StateSide Payrolls data in the balance. Gold (2054) has remained fairly docile following yesterday’s spike to nearly an All-Time High, (more on that in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update). Our “live” P/E for the S&P 500 continues to reside in the stratosphere at 52.5x, reflective of a stagnant Q1 Earnings Season; the Index’s yield is 1.653% versus the U.S. 3-month T-Bill yield of 5.055%. Due too to close out the Econ Baro’s week is Consumer Credit for March.
Following the anticipated FOMC’s +25bp FedFunds increase, Gold made a significant gain at this session’s open up to 2085 on a very high-volume trade, to just 4 points shy of the 2089 All-Time High; however, ’tis all since been hoovered away, price now 2044, within today’s Neutral Zone. Above same are Copper and Oil, whilst below same is the Bond; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is nonetheless moderate-to-robust with Gold, Copper and Oil already having traded in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs for today (see Market Ranges). Oil tested the key prior low (64.12) of 20 March, reaching down to 63.64 before then bouncing to as high as 69.42 thus far today. With nine metrics due for the Econ Baro in these next two sessions, those for today include March’s Trade Deficit, plus Q1’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
New bank struggles boffed the S&P by -1.2% yesterday; however at present, the Spoo is marginally higher, plus the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are above their Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility is mostly mild ahead of today’s FOMC +25bp rate rise (due at 18:00 GMT). Yesterday’s S&P MoneyFlow was only about a third as weak as the Index itself, evidence of the selling not being materially fear-based. Gold’s high yesterday (2029) was 60 points away from its All-Time High (2089), price reaching its best level since 14 April. Ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro looks to April’s ADP Employment data and the ISM (Svc) Index.
With the StateSide debt ceiling coming to a head, we’ve the Bond and Spoo at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; SiIver is below same, and overall BEGOS Markets volatility is again light. As Q1 Earnings Season weakens along, our “live” P/E of the S&P has now moved up to 52.1x. Still, by Market Values, none of the primary BEGOS components are at extreme deviations from their smooth valuation lines. Also by Market Magnets, we’ve no notable deviations at present. Today brings March’s Factory Orders for today’s Econ Baro.
The Bond begins the week at present below its Neutral Zone for today, as do Gold, Copper and Oil; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update displays the yellow metal as the BEGOS Markets’ leader year-to-date, followed by the S&P 500 and the Bond. We still see Gold eclipsing its All-Time High (2089) within the duration of the current weekly parabolic Long trend, should typical price follow-through again occur; too, the Gold Update cites a visual plethora of warning signs for the S&P 500. For Market Rhythms, the best consistency from our 10-swing test basis is Copper’s 6-hr. Moneyflow, whereas on a 24-swing test basis ’tis Oil’s 2-hr. MACD. The Econ Baro starts a very busy week with April’s ISM(Mfg) Index and March’s Construction Spending; Wednesday the FOMC votes to raise FedFunds another 0.25bp and today on this side of the pond bourses are closed for the 01 May holiday.
Following yesterday’s relief rally, the Spoo at present is below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate; (of note, the Yen [not as yet in the BEGOS complex] has traced 212% of its EDTR following the BOJ’s steady policy statement). The “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of the S&P 500 is 48.3x: thus far in Q1 earnings season with 242 constituents having reported, a full 42% have not bettered their bottom lines from a year ago; the Spoo (currently 4144) shows dominant Market Profile trading resistance at 4155; mind too the ongoing descent of the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” at Market Trends as its linear regression looks to be rotating toward negative into next week. Following yesterday’s slowing in reported Q1 GDP, the Econ Baro today awaits to April’s Chicago PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCI Prices, plus Q1’s Employment Cost Index.
Gold and Silver remain resilient even in the face of weakening near-term technicals (as previously cited); both precious metals are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Copper which has already traced 75% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver’s cac volume is rolling from May into July, (as did that Copper on Tuesday). By Market Profiles, Silver has a trading resistance band from 25.35 up to 25.60, (current price right at 25.35); and by Market Trends, Silver’s “Baby Blues” continue to accelerate lower, as do those for Gold, Copper, Oil and the Spoo. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro as we get our first peek at Q1 GDP; in today’s mix as well are March’s Pending Home Sales.
We’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is (for this time of the session) again light-to-moderate. Yesterday, the S&P 500 stemmed a 17-session streak of being “textbook overbought”, the Spoo itself reaching below its “low if a down day” for just the second time in better than a month; at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are accelerating lower; at Market Values, the Spoo has only just pieced its smooth valuation line to the downside as, too, it has just done through its Market Magnet; and the Spoo’s lows of three weeks ago have now been penetrated; thus still lower Spoo levels ought be in the offing from here. (‘Course more broadly, our notion for the S&P reaching sub-3000 makes sense given lower earnings and higher interest rates). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Durable Orders.
Both the Bond and Gold are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Copper and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light-to-moderate. Neither Gold nor Silver have yet to retrench further as we anticipate still they will ahead of the next surge to an All-Time High (above 2089): indeed, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling yesterday below their +80% axis, indicative of lower price levels. For the S&P 500, our MoneyFlow page shows further deterioration both by the weekly and monthly measures; our “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 47.5x. The Econ Baro gets its week going with April’s Consumer Confidence and March’s New Home Sales.
The Bond begins the week at present above today’s Neutral Zone; Silver, Oil and the Spoo are below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update anticipates a new All-Time High is nigh, but that some minor downside play out prior to the next leap higher; by Market Values, Gold finally closed its upside deviation, and in penetrating the smooth valuation line, that’s a notion for a bit further weakness. Of greater concern is the ongoing overvaluation of the S&P 500 along with key Spoo technicals now in the process of crossing to negative. Moreover at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” are falling for every component except the Euro and Swiss Franc. The Econ Baro — at nearly a one-year low — is quiet today ahead of an otherwise fairly busy week.
Except for the Bond and the Spoo, the six other BEGOS Markets are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500’s MoneyFlow was materially affected yesterday by the fall in shares of TSLA, reminding us of the days when AAPL seemed to be the entirety of the S&P, one stock driving the bus. Still, by “textbook technicals”, the S&P is “overbought” for a 15th consecutive session (three weeks), albeit the Spoo’s daily MACD is now poised for a negative cross. Too, yesterday’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro were notably negative, nearly driving the Baro to its lowest oscillative level in a year; (more in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update).
Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and session volatility is light. Oil has today traded as low (78.24) as it has since the OPEC+ price gap; too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have provisionally slipped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels; it thus appears the gap down to 75.83 shall close near-term. Also per Market Trends, the Bond’s linear regression has rotated to negative; next to do so looks to be that for Copper. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 47.8x and the yield 1.633%; that for annualized for the U.S 3-month T-Bill is 4.995%. ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index, plus March’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (lagging per the Baro) Indicators.
At present, save for the Euro and Spoo, all the other BEGOS Markets are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate. We continue to watch Oil (per yesterday’s comment) as its technicals weaken toward a gap-fill to the 75.83 level. The Bond, per Market Trends, has seen its linear regression trend return to flat; those for the balance of the other Components remain positive, albeit the “Baby Blues” in each case are weakening. As for Market Rhythms, on both a 10-swing test basis and 24-swing test basis, the best of the bunch is Gold’s 2-hr Parabolic study. Late in the RTH session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
As we write we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Oil; still, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light, again as noted yesterday per Market Ranges narrowing. Oil’s daily technicals are showing early signs of weakening: currently priced at 80.45 (June cac), the gap closure to the pre-OPEC+ production cut is to 75.83, should more material selling ensue; too by Market Values (in real-time), Oil’s price shows as 5.10 points “high” above the smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Housing Starts/Permits.
Gold opens the week at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The 700th Edition of The Gold Update anticipates a new All-Time High (above 2089) is nigh, albeit that price being sufficiently stretched at present that more imminently a peek back into the 1900s first is warranted; by Market Values (in real-time), Gold shows as +54 points above its smooth valuation line; too by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” have slipped below their +80% axis, the rule of thumb there being to expect lower levels. And by Market Ranges across the board for all the BEGOS components, “narrowing” is the watchword, notably so for both Oil and the Spoo, both at their tightest EDTRs in at least a year. The Econ Baro looks to April’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
The BEGOS Markets are quiet ahead of a barrage of Econ Data with eight metrics due, including April’s UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil, and February’s Business Inventories. Only the Euro is outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today. At Market Values, the Bond is matched with its smooth valuation line, as nearly is the Euro; Oil is almost 7 points “high”, the Spoo 74 points “high”, and Gold 96 points “high”. The yellow metal yesterday came to just 25 points away from its All-Time High (of 2089); tomorrow brings our 700th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update.
We have largely recovered from the aforementioned hardware IT issue such that the website’s analytics are basically up to date. At present for the BEGOS Markets, Gold is the sole component outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. By Market Trends, the linear regression trends are firmly positive across the board. But, the S&P 500’s Moneyflow is showing signs of lacking puff: notably our five-day measure is negative; and the Index’s “live” P/E is 46.3x, more than double its lifetime mean. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include March’s PPI.
Apologies as we’ve no material comment for today. We are dealing with a material (however resolvable) hardware IT issue. Note therefore, too, that the website’s analytics have not been updated through yesterday. We’re on the case and look forward to resolution in due course. Many thanks for your ongoing valued interest and patience. …m…
Money on balance is flowing early on into the BEGOS Markets: The Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. Whilst by Market Trends all eight components are in positive linear regression, we’ve “Baby Blues” signaling weakening upside trend consistency for the Bond, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper. Meanwhile by Market Rhythms, the best performer on a 10-test swing basis is Gold’s 15-mn MACD, whilst on a 24-test swing basis ’tis the Euro’s 2-hr. Parabolics. Nothing specific is due today for the Econ Baro with inflation data due through the balance of the week.
Following the abbreviated week, (and ’tis still a holiday on this side of the pond), the BEGOS Markets are in full session: the Bond, Gold and Silver are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the components are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price’s geo-political price pop on Finland joining NATO: in since trading as low as 2004, the majority of that spike has faded, (typically following such pops); still, the CHN/TWN activity, too, is a concern that can re-buoy price. The Euro’s 2-hr. Parabolics lead the consistency tests (24-swing basis); as well the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are provisionally crossing below their +80% axis. The Econ Baro begins its week with February’s Wholesale Inventories.
We’ve an abbreviated session today: Only the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are trading, the former three until 15:15 GMT and the Spoo until 13:15 GMT. This enables these BEGOS Markets components to respond to the StateSide March Payrolls data due at 12:30 GMT. At present, all four of those components are within their Neutral Zones for today; we shall account for today’s activity as part of the Monday, 10 April trade date. For the Econ Baro, along with the employment report we’ve February’s Consumer Credit. Saturday’s 699the edition of The Gold Update shall note price not surprisingly being lackluster following Tuesday’s geo-politically-driven spike, even as the Econ Baro is again weakening.
Similar to the case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (this time above) today’s Neutral Zone; and again, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is notably light. Following Gold’s geo-political spike on Tuesday, price has since lacked additional puff; as regular readers know, price spikes tends to sag following such events. Meanwhile, the Bond has not succumbed as our analytics suggested: by Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” continue to decline, and at Market Values price is (in real-time) better than 5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; however, the daily Parabolics which had signaled Short have since flipped back to Long; thus it remains to be seen if near-term the Bond reached down to our 126 target area, (price now 134). ‘Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro with just the prior’s week’s Jobless Claims. Tomorrow, bourses are closed for Good Friday, however financial commodities shall have an abbreviated session to digest the StateSide Payrolls data.
Copper is the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is very light with respect to the otherwise increasing Market Ranges. Because Gold’s robust move yesterday to as high as 2043 (and again the high thus far today) was geo-politically driven (Finland joining NATO), we’re wary of the typical price retrenchment that follows such events; however technically, the up move was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolic study from Short back to Long; still by Market Values, price shows (in real-time) as 158 points “high”. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s ADP Employment and ISM(Svc) Index, plus February’s Trade Deficit.
Post-OPEC+ Oil has been able to sustain yesterday’s gap-up gain; price at present is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst all the other BEGOS Markets are within same; session volatility is light. The Oil price rise is sufficient that by Market Trends, all eight BEGOS components are now in positive linear regression; this is typical of a receding Dollar which today in the 101s is well down from the year-to-date high in the 105s. Still by Market Values, we’ve fairly extreme deviations for all five primary components: in real-time vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines, the Bond shows as 4.6 points “high”, the Euro as 0.23 points “high”, Gold as 124 points “high” Oil as 4.7 points “high” and the Spoo as 120 points “high”. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Factory Orders. And Q1 Earnings Season is now underway.
OPEC+’s significant production cut announcement gapped Oil up at the open by +5.8%, indeed thus far by as much as +7.9%, (presently +5.1% at 79.56). With the exception of both Copper and the Spoo, all of the other BEGOS Markets are below today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is moderate toward turning robust as the session unfolds. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as the leading performer amongst all the BEGOS components, but that price by Market Values remains stretched, (the daily Parabolics having also flipped to Short), such that some pullback ought be imminent. Following the Econ Baro having dipped last week, it today looks to March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.
As Q1 comes to a close, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper all trading at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, the sole component still in negative regression is Oil even as its rising “Baby Blues” refute the downside consistency with price moving higher these last couple of weeks. The Bond, which produced negative “Baby Blues” and daily Parabolics signals has yet to move substantially in either direction; that pace ought accelerate today with the release of the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for February. Also included for the Econ Baro today are that month’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the Chicago PMI for March.
The BEGOS Markets remain fairly subdued this morning with volatility continuing at a light pace. Still, the S&P’s firm up session yesterday has pushed the P/E to a “live” (futs-adj’d) reading of 47.7x; too, the positive stance of the MoneyFlow has again shown its leading qualities for higher S&P levels despite broad expectations for significantly lower levels: indeed we still sense an S&P to reach sub-3000 as the year unfolds given poor earnings growth and attractive short-term debt yields. The Econ Baro’s metrics today include the final revision to Q4’s GDP.
Gold – the cac volume for which is rolling from April into June – is the sole BEGOS Market at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; above same is the Spoo, and volatility remains light. The Bond issued two negative signals yesterday: the daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short (from the June cac level of 130 11/32), whilst the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis; the mid-126s seem a reasonable target area; too at Market Values, the Bond in real-time shows as nearly four points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve February’s Pending Home Sales.
Following a fairly inactive day for equities, we ‘ve at present the Euro above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst the Swiss Franc and Silver are below same; volatility is again mostly light. By our Market Ranges page, the Bond has been very expansive late, as has Gold, whereas less so have been Copper and Oil. That noted, by Market Trends, both the Bond and Gold are seeing their “Baby Blues” of linear regression trend consistency beginning to roll over to the downside: upon their breaching the +80% levels we’d then expect to see lower prices near-term; again by Market Values, Gold became quite stretched of late and — whilst clearly very cheap by currency debasement — our “live” deviation from the smooth valuation line shows price as 104 points high; should Gold indeed let go further, its Market Profile price supports are 1929, 1923, and 1912; (price is currently 1953). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Consumer Confidence.
The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update acknowledges that although Gold is a bit stretched to the upside via our Market Values page, that nonetheless the near-to-medium term remains firmly bullish, and moreover that Silver has been catching up to Gold (the G/S ratio in decline, albeit still historically high). At Market Trends, the only two BEGOS Markets in negative linear regression are Oil and Copper. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 46.5x. By Market Rhythms, our most consistent study on a 10-swing test basis is Gold’s 1hr. Price Oscillator; on a 24-swing test basis ’tis the Bond’s 30mn. Parabolics. The Econ Baro today is quiet ahead of a moderate week of incoming metrics.
Both the Bond and Silver are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; below same are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; and session volatility is light-to-moderate. We again stress per our S&P MoneyFlow page that the inFlow is outpacing the actual change in the Index itself, suggestive there still being no “fear” in the market, and that indeed higher Index levels are in the offing, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 46.1x. And at Market Values, the least deviation is by the Spoo at 43 points below its smooth valuation line; for the balance of the Primary BEGOS Markets, the Bond shows as nearly 7 points “high”, the Euro as over 0.02 points “high”, Gold as 151 points “high” and Oil as over 7 points “low”. The Econ Baro closes out its relative inactive week with February’s Durable Orders.
The S&P 500, after responding positively to yesterday’s anticipated +25bp FedFunds rate increase, was then significantly turned back negatively upon the Treasury’s not intending to expand protection for bank depositors. Regardless this morning, the Spoo is trading at present above its Neutral Zone for today, as too are both the Euro and Copper; Silver is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate in the context that Market Ranges have expanded. By Market Rhythms, the two most consistent are the Bond’s 30-minute Parabolics and MACD. Included for the Econ Baro today are February’s New Home Sales and Q4’s Current Account Balance.