PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

The Bond, Swiss Franc, Silver, Oil, Spoo are all at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond notably having already traded 112% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the latter by Market Values is more than -8 points below its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo finally has returned to same for the first time since 05 May. By Market Trends, the Spoo has confirmed its “Baby Blues” dropping below their key -80% level; thus still lower price levels are expected near-term; as noted we’re seeking the 4455 level. The S&P yesterday fully unwound its “textbook overbought” condition following that run of 41 consecutive trading days. In addition to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ISM(Svc) Index and June’s Factory Orders.

The Spoo gapped -18 points lower in concert with Fitch downgrading (as they’d been anticipating to do) the StateSide credit rating from AAA to AA+; (this occurred whilst the Spoo was in its usual one-hour closure from 21:00-22:00 GMT); the Spoo at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, as is Copper; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have preliminarily dropped below their +80% level, indicative of lower prices near-term: this last occurred on 27 June, however the downside follow-through was at best minimal, (the exception rather than the rule); we continue initially to look toward the mid-point of prior Spoo structural support ’round 4455, (current price 4575). For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data; (the first read of Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs is scheduled for tomorrow, 03 August).

Each component of the BEGOS Markets’ metals’ triumvirate is at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same, and volatility is mostly light. In real-time by Market Values, Oil is 8.92 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Bond is nearly -5 points below same. The S&P 500 confirmed its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; however by our MoneyFlow page, the upside thrust lacks puff. By the Spoo’s Market Profile, the most dominant supporters are 4605, followed by the 4588-4584 zone. The Econ Baro awaits July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

Save for the Euro and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the Bond and Gold both at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes the +40-point price contango as cac volume rolls from August into December; currently priced at 1993, the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend would flip to Long should 2005 be eclipsed this week. The S&P 500 enters its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought” making it the 10th longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years, (the record is 59 days); the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 58.5x. Due for the econ Baro is July’s Chi PMI.

Both the Bond and the Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; overall BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate: of note on the heels of yesterday’s Yen acceleration, it today has already traced 306% of its “expected daily trading range” (EDTR). At long last, the S&P may finally be running out of puff, its “textbook overbought” condition entering a 39th consecutive trading day which ties it for the 10th-longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years; yesterday’s selling after the Index reached 4607 was sufficiently swift that perhaps “the light is going on” as to stocks’ extreme overvaluation. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” look to curl below their key +80% level come Monday, suggestive of materially lower price levels; and yesterday, the Spoo confirmed a negative crossing of its Market Magnet, which too points to lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to the Fed’s favoured Core PCE for June, along with the month’s Personal Income/Spending data, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

The Bond, Oil and the Spoo are at present all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility already is firmly moderate. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into December: the price premium for the latter is +40 points over spot. The S&P 500 looks to provisionally open a 38th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the futs-adj’d live P/E is 57.9x. By Market Values, the Spoo is +108 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst Oil is +7.47 points above its like measure. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2’s GDP.

Ahead of the Fed, both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are Copper and the Spoo; session volatility as expected is mostly light. 36 days now is the S&P 500 “textbook overbought” at what we deem an “extreme” level given BollBands, RSI and Stos all triggering as such. Our MoneyFlow page suggests weakening of the Flow vis-à-vis the Index itself, albeit since last Thursday’s massive monetary drain (see both our 21 July comment and the current edition of The Gold Update) there has yet to be any realized follow-though. June’s New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, followed late in the session by the FOMC’s Policy Statement incorporating a FedFunds raise of +0.25% to their 5.25%-5.50% target range.

Our two Euro Currencies plus the metals triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, the metals garnering the most amount of ranginess to this point. The S&P 500 yesterday recorded its 35th consecutive day as “textbook overbought”, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) now 57.7x. Looking to Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the most consistent studies are the Bond’s 30-min. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow, whilst on a 24-test swing basis the best of the bunch are Oil’s 15-min MACD and 15-min. Parabolics, plus the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) 15-min. MoneyFlow. By Market Values, we’ve Oil (in real-time) better than +7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo is +116 points above same. The Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.

Whilst none of the BEGOS Markets are at present outside of their respective Neutral Zones for today, the overall tilt is negative, save solely for the Euro which is +0.1%; volatility is notably light. The Gold Update anticipates price struggling a wee bit this week as the Fed looks on Wednesday to raise their FundsRate +0.25%. Again emphasized is the vast overvaluation of the S&P 500: indeed comparing year-over-year price to the cap-weighted P/E, the imputed level of earnings for the Index as a unit is significantly lower; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 57.5x. The Econ Baro again is quiet today ahead of 12 metrics due as the balance week unfolds.

Both Copper and Oil are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday lost but -0.7%, its MoneyFlow (a favoured leading indicator) was the most negative since 13 September 2022, (following which within 21 days, the Spoo fell as much as 383 points); and despite yesterday’s move lower, the S&P remains “textbook overbought” now through 33 consecutive trading days. Q2 Earnings Season through yesterday finds 64 S&P constituents having thus far reported with 55% having done better year-over-year: the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 56.8x. The Econ Baro takes a breather following its negative week.

Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are both the Bond and Spoo, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The S&P 500 is frightfully overcooked, its settle yesterday (4566) recording a 32nd straight day as “textbook overbought” (a combination of BollBands, Stos and RSI); indeed looking back through better than 40 years of daily data, such string is into rarefied air. Specific to the Spoo (4587) — when it finally lets go — structural support runs from 4498 down to 4411. Early on in Q2 Earnings Season, what had started robustly is starting to sag, thus far with only 58% of S&P constituents having improved their bottom lines over those of a year ago. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro (which wraps its week today), incoming metrics including July’s Philly Fed Index, plus June’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators.

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 yesterday completed its 31st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, and the Spoo by Market Values (in real-time) is +180 points above its smooth valuation line.; the “live” P/E of the S&P is (futs-adj’d) 59.1x. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, our two best studies are Copper’s 4-hr. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow. More housing data arrives for the Econ Baro via June’s Housing Starts/Permits.

With the S&P 500 having just completed its 30th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, today finds at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their Neutral Zones; none are below same, and volatility is light. The five primary BEGOS are now all in positive correlation, typical of what we’ve seen historically when “money is flowing into everything” during Dollar weakness. Moreover by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” for all eight BEGOS components are rising. Q2 Earnings Season very early on appears off to a better start than in several years past. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro as due is July’s NAHB index, June’s Retail Sales plus IndProd/CapUtil, and May’s Business Inventories.

‘Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets. At present, the Swiss Franc is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; the latter’s cac volume is rolling from August into September. Session volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having already traced 80% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update has more conviction that the recent low (1901 futs) may stand as the parabolic Short trend can unwind within a couple of weeks; too, the overwhelmingly extreme valuation of the S&P 500 again is emphasized: its futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 58.1x and the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +156 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Bara awaits July’s NY State Empire Index.

‘Tis looking lower early on for the BEGOS Markets: the Bond, Euro, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil are all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is again light, (save for the non-BEGOS Yen which already has traced 96% of its EDTR [see Market Ranges for the BEGOS Markets]). The S&P 500 is now 28 days “textbook overbought”, the live P/E (fut’s adj’d) now an unconscionable 58.6x. By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +174 points above its smooth valuation line. By Market Trends, Silver’s surge has rotated its linreg trend from negative to positive. The Econ Baro completes its week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey and June’s Ex/Im Prices.

Following an unusual session wherein 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) achieved their “high if an up day”, thus far today we’ve (at present) both the Swiss Franc and Silver above their Neutral Zones; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is light. On June’s “slowing” inflation news, the Dollar Index traded down to its lowest level since April 2022; ’tis at present 100.070. Gold continues to ascend in sync with its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends), thus far low-to-high this week from 1918 to 1968. The well-overvalued S&P 500 completed its 27th day as “textbook overbought”, the “live” P/E (fut’s adj’d) now 57.4x. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s PPI and Treasury Budget.

The Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above their respective neutral Zones for today. None of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is basically light. Our page for the S&P’s MoneyFlow shows as just perceptively weakening a tad even as the Index has risen both days so far this week; and in real-time, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to descend; by its Market Profile we see Spoo trading resistance at 4485 with support initially at 4445. As for the Bond which may well be affected by today’s CPI reading for June, there is Market Profile support at 124^00; however, should inflation have increased over May’s pace, the “low if a down day” for the Bond appears as 123^09. Late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

A firm Tuesday start for the BEGOS Markets, all eight components in the black, and save for Oil and the Spoo, all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today. At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” confirmed closing above their -80% axis, suggestive of higher price levels near-term. On a 10-swing test basis our two best Market Rhythms are currently the MoneyFlow studies for 8-hr. Copper and the daily Euro. The S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 55.6x and the yield 1.540%; that for the 3-Month U.S. T-Bill is 5.225%. Yesterday marked the S&P’s 25th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; but the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to work lower. “Follow the Blues…”

The BEGOS Markets begin the week on a downbeat with the Swiss Franc, Copper and the Spoo all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update suggests the worst for price (1901 futs) within the current weekly parabolic Short trend may have been realized, even as the Fed looks to continue its rate raises; too, we list 10 viable crash catalysts for the stock market. Even as the Spoo is lower today, in real-time ’tis 117 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); meanwhile, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are accelerating their decline. For the Econ Baro we’ve May’s Wholesale Inventories, with Consumer Credit late in the session.

Following yesterday’s significant leap in ADP’s Employment level, the BEGOS Markets are quiet, all eight components at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, the Econ Baro awaiting Labor’s Payrolls data; thus, volatility is light across the board. Even as the S&P 500 recorded another down day, it still remains “textbook overbought”; for the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time notably dropping lower thus far today; and by the Spoo’s Market Profile, much of its “gap” from 4485-4421 was hoovered yesterday on the heels of the strong ADP number, the obvious notion being the Fed shall continue to press the rate rise pedal. Mind our Earnings Season page as that for Q2 is now underway.

The Spoo is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility is again light-to-moderate; of note, whilst not yet a BEGOS component , the yen has already traced 95% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges for the BEGOS Markets). Even as the S&P 500 has showed some mild weakness, it nonetheless is now ” textbook overbought” through 22 consecutive trading days; by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +190 points above its smooth valuation line; and at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to creep lower. The Econ Baro’s busy day includes June’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus May’s Trade Deficit.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, volatility now light-to-moderate. The following components are at present below their session’s Neutral Zones: the Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; Oil is above same. In assessing Market Magnets, prices are essentially in sync with the entire bunch, save for the Spoo being some 58 points “high”. By Market Rhythms, on a 10-swing test basis the most consistent is Copper’s 8hr. MoneyFlow, whilst on a 24-swing test basis the leader is the Euro’s 15mn. MoneyFlow. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Factory Orders; late in the session come the FOMC’s Minutes from their 13-14 June meeting.

Given the StateSide holiday, today begins a BEGOS Markets’ two-day session for Wednesday settlement. At present, Gold is the sole component outside (above) its Neutral Zone for the session; overall, volatility expectedly is light. The S&P 500 pauses with its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at 56.1x and Q2 Earnings Season about to commence. By “textbook technicals” the S&P is now overbought through 21 consecutive trading days (i.e. one trading month); the Spoo has yet to succumb to its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below their +80% axis a week ago; and in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +229 points above its smooth valuation line. All components enter holiday trading halts starting between 17:00-18:30 GMT until 00:00 GMT.

The EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets’ weak links to start the week, both the Euro itself and Swiss Franc at present below today’s Neutral Zone. The balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Despite Gold’s ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend, price has initially bounced precisely from our downside target (1893 by spot) as described in The Gold Update; too by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” are (in real-time) giving the earliest suggestion of bottoming; and by Market Values, price (also in real-time) is -58 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to June’s ISM(Mfg) Index and May’s Construction Spending. The Spoo’s session is abbreviated ahead of tomorrow’s StateSide holiday.

At present Copper is the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light, again save for Copper which has thus far traced 62% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in breaking the below their +80% level have since seen price drop a full $0.10/pound, lending to why the Blues are a favoured signal; similarly however, those for the Spoo have yet to see price crack. Gold has (at least for the moment) bounced precisely off the 1893 spot low we cited some weeks ago; too, the current August cac has reached down to 1901: more in tomorrow’s 711th Edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro completes its week notably with May’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator: Core PCE Prices.

The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for the Euro which has already traced in excess of 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold has traded down to 1911 (Aug futs) which is toward the neighbourhood of how low we anticipate price may go (per recent editions of the Gold Update); on a spot basis, mind the 1893 level for support; by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) -72 points below its smooth valuation line. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are May’s Pending Home Sales and the final revision to Q1 GDP.

The Euro at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Along with Copper yesterday, the Spoo also confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) settling below their +80% axis; again this leading indicator reliably points to lower Spoo levels near-term. For the S&P 500 itself, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 55.6x, and the Index has now been “textbook overbought” for 17 consecutive trading days; indeed by Market Values, the Spoo is 193 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, the latter’s cac volume having moved from July into September, as shall that for the white metal these next two days. BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, save for that of the red metal which already has traced 73% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges): as anticipated yesterday, Copper’s “Baby Blues” have now provisionally dropped below their +80% level, which if confirmed at settle today suggest lower price levels in the offing. For the Econ Baro we’ve June’s Consumer Confidence plus May’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are beginning the week within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price becoming more in sync with its ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend, with a test of the low 1900s, high 1800s in the offing. At Market Trends, mind Copper’s “Baby Blues” as they begin rolling over: a confirmation of them settling below their +80% level would suggest lower price levels to follow.

The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility already is moderate-to-robust, the Euro thus far having traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo’s daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping from Long to Short; the last dozen such ShortSide runs have “averaged” down moves of -100 points, suggestive that by the Spoo’s Market Profile we can see a test of the 4319 apex, (current price is 4399). And again in checking the Spoo versus its Market Value, price in real-time is +222 points above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro has concluded its winning week.

Silver is again (per this time of day) below its Neutral Zone, as is the Spoo; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, and volatility is light ahead of FedChair Powell’s stint in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Even as the S&P finally is coming off exorbitantly high levels, it nonetheless remains “textbook overbought” now throughout the past 13 trading sessions. And specific to the Spoo, it (in real-time) is +227 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too, the Euro is nearly +0.02 points above same. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include Q1’s Current Account, plus May’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. lagging given our leading Econ Baro) Indicators.

Only Silver is at present trading below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday slipped a bit (-0.5%), its MoneyFlow equivalent gained a full +1.0%, the differential across our three time frames as noted on the MoneyFlow page. June’s strong housing data as reported on both Monday and Tuesday works in the FOMC’s favour to vote for another rate hike come their 26 July Policy Statement. By Market Rhythms, the most consistent on both the 10-swing test and 24-swing test basss is Oil’s 15-min. MACD. FedChair Powell commences his semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee.

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues with all eight components in the red, including at present both the Swiss Franc and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones; volatility has ramped up to moderate across the board. The S&P 500 (amongst the overvaluation citings herein mentioned of late as well as in The Gold Update) has been “textbook overbought” these last 11 trading days, and “extremely” so for the past four sessions. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 54.7x and the yield 1.538%; (the U.S. three-month T-Bill yield is 5.065%). Specific to the Spoo by its Market Profile, there is trading support at 4416, and then failing that, in the 4334-4319 range. At Market Trends, save for Oil, the balance of the linreg trends all are positive. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Housing Starts/Permits.

Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is expectedly light given StateSide physical bourses being closed. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal as essentially going nowhere, which given the weekly parabolic trend being Short may deemed as mildly bullish, albeit the low 1900 area remain viable; moreover, the missive reinforces the dangerously high/overvalued level of the S&P 500 both fundamentally and technically. Indeed by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) 310 points above its smooth valuation line, the last such extreme being in last August upon which the S&P 500 then swiftly fell 700 points from 4300 to 3600. The Econ Baro starts its week with June’s NAHB Housing Index.

The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; Copper is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light, (albeit the Yen [as yet a BEGOS component] has traced in excess of 100% of its EDTR for today). The S&P 500 is now 10 days “textbook overbought”, the last three being at an extreme measure; as for the Spoo, ’tis (in real-time) 335 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), which in terms of rarity across the past 23 years is in the 99.7th percentile. As anticipated per last Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update, the Econ Baro’s busy week has been negative, and concludes today with June’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

We were wrong in anticipating the FOMC would vote to raise their bank’s FundsRate another 0.25%, albeit ’tis said more increases are still on table. Thus the Dollar is getting the bid today to the demise of all eight BEGOS Markets, seven of which (save for Oil) already are below their respective Neutral Zones. Session volatility ranges from light (for Oil with just a 29% EDTR tracing thus far) to robust (for Silver with at 116% tracing). EDTRs can be reviewed at our Market Ranges page. Cac volumes for the currencies are rolling from June into September, whilst for Oil ’tis rolling from July into August. This is a very busy day for the Econ Baro with 10 incoming metrics due, including June’s NY State Empire and Philly Fed Indices, May’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business inventories.

‘Tis Fed Day, the consensus now overwhelming for a “pause” even as the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge (Core PCE as reported 26 May) is double (4% annualized) the desired rate (2%). We’ll see if the FOMC vote in unanimity to “pause”, or if there is dissent. At present, Copper is the only BEGOS component outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility is expectedly light. By Market Values, in real-time the Spoo is now 301 points (a massive deviation) above its smooth valuation line; and the S&P’s “textbook” gauge is now “extremely overbought”. Prior to the FOMC’s Policy Statement, the Econ Baro receives May’s PPI.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Dough continues to flow into the S&P 500 as the FinMedia declares resumption of a “bull market”, a Fed “pause” on Wednesday (not by our math), and that earnings are “soaring”. (Really? Again, see the current edition of The Gold Update). At Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +291 points above its smooth valuation line: even without the freshly-added +44 points of September contract premium, that’s still an extreme deviation of +247 points. The Econ Baro looks to May’s CPI.

The week starts with the contract volume for the Spoo rolling from June into September: there is +44 points of fresh premium in the September contract, indicative of sustained higher interest rates; and as reiterated in the current edition of The Gold Update (see therein the Core PCE chart), we expect the FOMC to add another +0.25% to its Bank’s FundsRate on Wednesday, (despite FinMedia writings for a “pause”). At present, we’ve both the Euro and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Econ Baro’s busy week of 16 incoming metrics begins late in the session with May’s Treasury Budget.

Silver and Copper are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; all of the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility remains light. The VIX continues to move lower (13.65); more on that in tomorrow’s 708th Edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 itself has now been “textbook overbought” for five consecutive trading sessions; its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 53.1x and the yield 1.575%. At Market Trends, Copper’s linear regression has rotated to positive (as continues that for the Spoo); whilst the balance of the bunch are still in negative linear regression, their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are all now rising. The Econ Baro’s week is complete ahead of an ample load ahead, as we pass through the Fed’s +0.25% rise to its FundsRate on Wednesday 14 June.

Similar to yesterday ’round this time, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (this time above) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility is light. The $VIX is down into the 13s, where it last was one month prior to 2020’s COVID Crash; historically, 12 is one standard deviation below the VIX’s lifetime average and generally precedes a significant drop in the S&P 500; obviously by the Index’s high “live” P/E (51.6x), cap-weighted earnings growth for the S&P has essentially been non-existent. Of note, the 3-year U.S. T-Bill continues its annualized yield of greater than 5%. The Econ Baro concludes its fairly light week, today’s metrics including April’s Wholesale Inventories.

Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is mostly light. The precious metals appear rather stuck even as Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend is into its third week, such broader measure being countered thus far by the nearer-term rise in the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). By Market Rhythms, the best of late for Gold is its 12-hr. MACD whilst for Sister Silver ’tis her 12-hr. Price Oscillator. And at Market Values, Gold remains pretty much in stead with its smooth valuation line, whereas for the Spoo that measure shows price (in real-time) as 196 points “high”. For the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.

Silver, Copper and Oil are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is mostly moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms (on a 24-swing test basis), the leaders are both Copper’s 4-hr. MoneyFlow and 30-min. Price Oscillator, plus the Bond’s 4-hr. MACD. The best correlation at present among the five primary BEGOS components is positive in pairing the Bond with Gold. By Market Values, the only deviation of note is for the Spoo which is (in real-time) 191 points above its smooth valuation line; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 53.0x; the Spoo (currently 4279) shows fairly dominant trading resistance per its Market Profile at 4290 with trading support spanning from 4215-to-4191. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, which after its recent rocket shot has been receding across the last four trading days.

The week starts with most of the BEGOS Markets in the red, notably the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Oil, and volatility is light-to-moderate, the exception being Oil which already has traced 111% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update still seeks the low-1900s to high-1800s as support during the current weekly parabolic Short trend; however, cited too are the precious metals’ “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) beginning to curl up from in and around their -80% axes, typically a harbinger of high price levels near-term. The Econ Baro — which has defied ongoing “parroting” of recession — has a fairly light week, today featuring May’s ISM(Svc) Index and April’s Factory Orders.

The Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil are all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light ahead of May’s StateSide Payrolls data; only Copper has thus far traced in excess of 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Following a Wednesday’s “Flow-weaker-than-S&P” session, money has continued to return to the Index; too by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +160 points above its smooth valuation line. And as tweeted yesterday, the VIX (now sub-16) is approaching pre-COVID complacency (sub-13). Gold is firming even as the weekly parabolic Short trend is but a week old, the debt default’s being skirted raising the question: from where comes the money to keep going? Tomorrow brings the 707th Edition of The Gold Update.

Thus far we’ve little change in the S&P Futs even as the U.S. House passes the debt default deal, the Spoo at present within its Neutral Zone for today; above same are both Copper and Oil, whilst below same are the Bond, Euro, Gold and Silver; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday was one of the few sessions we’ve seen of late where the S&P’s monetary outflow (-1.8%) notably exceeded the change in the Index itself (-0.6%); whether this is an inflection point toward a long overdue correction for the S&P remains to be seen, however Flow does lead Index; still by Market Trends, the Spoo remains the sole BEGOS Market exhibiting a positive linear regression trend. ‘Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro including May’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Mfg) Index, April’s Construction Spending, and the revisions to Q1’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Both the Bond and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo, and volatility is mostly moderate, Oil being a bit of a laggard with just a 26% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). @deMeadvillePro tweets Oil’s 2-hr. MACD as having been a super Market Rhythm these past six weeks: of note, the average swing duration of the study is some 1 1/2 days (24 swings tested). Our S&P 500 MoneyFlow page continues to reflect the massive amount of money being thrown into the Index, the notable inflows yesterday going to NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and AMZN; (outflows were most for MSFT and AVGO). The (futs-adj’d) “live” P/E of the S&P is 55.6x; (the publicly “parroted” P/E is 24.3x). Today’s Econ Baro awaits May’s Chicago PMI. The Fed’s Tan Tome arrives late in the session.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, finding Gold (not surprisingly) below its Neutral Zone for today, as are Silver, Copper and the Euro; above same is the Bond, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond notably having traced 117% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold’s contract rollover from June to August adds 19 points to price, reflective of broader bullish sentiment for the yellow metal, even as near-term price looks to fall (again per the current edition of the Gold Update). At Market Values, Gold (in real-time) shows as -49 points “low” and the Spoo as +149 points “high”. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence.

The BEGOS Markets are into a two-day trading session (Tuesday settlement) as StateSide ’tis Memorial Day, and on this side of The Pond we’ve Whit Monday. There is little markets’ reaction to the tentative U.S. debt ceiling “deal” which still must pass Congressional muster: Copper is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone at present. Gold confirms its weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Long to Short. The Gold Update cites our near-term downside target zone for the yellow metal, notably selecting the 1893 level within the overall broad structural support from 1975 to 1810, within which we’ve Golden Ratio support from 1912 to 1874. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 56.0x. And contract volume for the Bond is rolling from June into September, whilst for Gold ’tis rolling from June into August.

The metals triumvirate are above their Neutral Zones at present; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold’s weekly Parabolics have provisionally flipped from Long to Short: in tomorrow’s 706th Edition of The Gold Update we’ll look at “how low is low”. As noted earlier, the MACD has also provisionally gone Short. In tandem, the Dollar Index has crept above the 104 level for the first time since 17 March (Gold then 1994 vs. today’s 1950). ‘Tis a key day for the Econ Baro as we get the Fed’s favoured inflation metric of April’s Core PCE Prices (which we’ll also assess in tomorrow’s missive); other metrics include the month’s Personal Income/Spending and Durable Orders.