At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is at best light. In looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the most profitably consistent through yesterday are Silver’s 8hr Price Oscillator, 12hr MACD, 6hr Moneyflow and daily Parabolics, plus Oil’s 4hr Moneyflow, the Euro’s daily Moneyflow, and the Swiss Franc’s daily MACD. On a 24-test basis, the best is Gold’s 1hr Price Oscillator. By our S&P MoneyFlow page, we’ve still yet to detect any real fear, even as our “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is now 36.9x. The Econ Baro gets its back-loaded week underway with September’s New Home Sales.
Mark
24 October 2023 – 09:02 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light, save for Copper having already traced 67% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values we’ve Gold in (real-time) +107 points above its smooth valuation line. In tandem with the Dollar having weakened across the past two weeks, by Market Trends the linregs for Gold, Silver, the Euro and Swiss Franc all have rotated to positive; those for the other four BEGOS components remain negative. Yet Silver is still a laggard to Gold, the G/S ratio at 86x vs. the century-to-date average of 68x: as we from time-to-time quip in The Gold Update: “Don’t forget the Silver!”
23 October 2023 – 09:24 Central Euro Time
Save for the Spoo, the other seven BEGOS Markets are in the red, all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update sees the yellow metal as remaining “range-bound” until the All-Time High (2089 vs. the current 1986) is eclipsed, (from which Gold then becomes “moon-bound”, ideally to its present Dollar debasement value of 3724). The Econ Baro is back-loaded this week from Wednesday on, key reports including Q3 GDP and the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index. And thus far, Q3 earnings by year-over-year comparison is relatively weak: mind our Earnings Season page.
20 October 2023 – 08:53 Central Euro Time
Per our tweet (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, “Flow leads dough…” as is now being depicted on the MoneyFlow page for the S&P 500; too, our notion of the Spoo attaining the 4500 level at least near-term (based on the upside reversal at Market Trends of the “Baby Blues” two weeks ago) is now nixed, even as the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend has just turned positive; again, 4431 nears to clear for a run to 4500. Today at present, the Bond is above its Neutral Zone; both the Euro and Copper are below same, and BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, within the context of Market Ranges (EDTRs) having expanded. Gold’s EDTR is now 26 points, meaning that 2000+ is within range today; presently 1987, Gold’s nearest dominant Market Profile supporter is 1963. The Econ Baro is scheduled to close its week with September’s Treasury Budget.
19 October 2023 – 09:04 Central Euro Time
Narrow ranges thus far characterize the BEGOS Markets: only the Bond is at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility is notably light, the Bond with the widest EDTR tracing to this point (see Market Ranges) at just 37%. Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Short to Long, (confirmation to come upon Friday’s settle); price, which just two weeks ago was better than -100 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Ranges) is now (in real-time) 71 points above same. As for the Spoo, should the recent 4431 high not be eclipsed, our 4500 notion likely gets nixed. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include October’s Philly Fed Index plus September’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
18 October 2023 – 10:53 Central Euro Time
The Metals Triumvirate and Oil are the BEGOS Markets’ leaders thus far, those four all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Bond, and volatility is moderate. On a $/cac basis, Silver is the broadest mover, at present +$1725. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” appear poised to break above their 0% axis by week’s end: again from the week prior we’ve ruminated about the Spoo making a go for 4500, (the S&P’s vastly high “live” P/E of 38.3x notwithstanding). And per the Euro’s page, its best Market Rhythm — the daily MoneyFlow study — triggered a Long signal per yesterday’s open (1.05885). For the Econ Baro we’ve September’s Housing Starts/Permits; then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome for October.
17 October 2023 – 09:03 Central Euro Time
‘Tis red across the board for the BEGOS Markets, notably with the Bond, Euro, Gold, Copper and Oil all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility however is mostly light. On a $/cac change basis, Copper’s is the most at the moment, -$1,012. At Market Trends, whilst all eight components are still in negative linreg trends, all their “Baby Blues” are in ascent, meaning the trends’ downside consistencies are waning. By the Spoo’s Market Profile the most dominant resistor above present price (4394) is 4401. And Oil’s cac volume is rolling from November into December. For the Econ Baro we await October’s NAHB Housing Index, September’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and August’s Business Inventories.
16 October 2023 – 09:12 Central Euro Time
We begin the week with both the Euro and Copper at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Bond, Gold and Silver. With respect to the yellow metal, note in the current edition of The Gold Update the “tease” as regards Friday’s “Hobson Close”; should Gold further dip, we see structural support in the 1898-1881 zone; as well, 1885 is a key Market Profile support apex for Gold. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. The Econ Baro’s busy week of 14 incoming metrics starts today with October’s NY State Empire Index. And mind our Earnings Season page with reports for Q3 picking up the pace as the week unfolds.
13 October 2023 – 08:58 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is quite light. Even as equities struggled yesterday, there remains no “fear” for the S&P 500 per our cap-weighted MoneyFlow page. Further per our Market Trends page, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” in real-time continue their ascent; our best Market Rhythm at present for the Spoo on a 10-test basis is its 6hr Moneyflow study; on a 24-test basis ’tis the daily Price Oscillator study. To wrap the week for the Econ Baro, September’s Treasury Budget has been moved to next week; however today we’ve the month’s Ex/Im Prices, plus October’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
12 October 2023 – 08:59 Central Euro Time
Money is moving into the BEGOS Markets this morning: at present, the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper all are above today’s Neutral Zones; otherwise, Oil and the Spoo are within same, and volatility is again light. At Market Trends, even as all eight components remain in linreg downtrends, respective “Baby Blues” are rising, (save those for Oil). Gold has significantly firmed on the geo-political bid, prior to which price was better than -100 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): that reading in now real-time is just -19 points; whilst as noted the yellow metal tends to decline following geo-political price spikes, price already was overly low pre-event. More in this coming Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro awaits metrics including September’s CPI and the Treasury Budget (originally listed for yesterday).
11 October 2023 – 09:12 Central Euro Time
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last night, the Spoo did confirm its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) moving above the key -80% axis, inferring high price levels: structurally there appears room to move near-term to 4500 (present price is 4393); ‘course as we regularly cite, fundamentally the S&P remains significantly overvalued, its “live” P/E at 38.8x. Gold has (yet) not returned to its pre-Middle East event level of the 1830s: typically such price retrenchments occur following geo-political price-spikes; current price is 1877. The Econ Baro looks to September’s PPI and the month’s Treasury Budget; late in the session we’ve the minutes from the FOMC’s 19-20 September meeting.
10 October 2023 – 09:08 Central Euro Time
A whirl ’round day yesterday for the S&P, arguably getting a safe-haven bid given events in the Middle East; as well the S&P is now “textbook oversold” through 13 days and the MoneyFlow differential is still positive, indicative of “fear” remaining at bay; moreover at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are in real-time moving above their -80% level, indicative of further price rise near-term. For today at present, Gold, Copper and Oil are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. And for the Econ Baro we await August’s Wholesale Inventories.
09 October 2023 – 08:58 Central Euro Time
Expectedly, given the incursion in the Middle East, Gold gapped notably higher at last night’s open and the Spoo notably lower. The latter along along with the Euro are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are the Bond, Metals Triumvirate and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The Gold Update looks to 1800 as support: whilst the geo-political event has given Gold the typical boost, history reminds us that such spikes tend to reverse themselves as the ensuing days unfold; still (in real-time) Gold now at 1865 is -66 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). And of course broadly, Gold remains vastly undervalued by currency debasement and the S&P 500 vastly overvalued by unsupportive earnings.
06 October 2023 – 08:58 Central Euro Time
The Eurocurrencies are the weak link thus far with both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light with September’s Payrolls data due (12:30 GMT). Oil having come off, all eight BEGOS components are now in negative 21-day linear regression downtrends. Specific to the S&P 500, there remains no sight of “fear” given the positive differentials of Index change vs. flow per our MoneyFlow page; too, by “textbook technicals”, the S&P stands as “oversold” through 11 trading days; ‘course, the big fundamental bug-a-boo remains the “live” P/E now 37.6 (futs adj’d real-time). In addition to Labor’s jobs data, the Econ Baro also awaits August’s Consumer Credit late in the sessdion.
05 October 2023 – 09:01 Central Euro Time
With EDTRS (see Market Ranges) having ramped up of late, the BEGOS Markets are notably subdued this morning, all eight components at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, Oil (the Market Trends sell signal via the “Baby Blues” having come 7 trading sessions ago on 26 September, albeit price initially zooming higher still into the 95s) has finally come off down into the 84s; price has thus finally returned to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As for Gold, currently 1836, ’tis (in real-time) -107 points below its smooth valuation line. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Trade Deficit.
04 October 2023 – 09:05 Central Euro Time
Red returns to the BEGOS Markets this morning for all eight components, only three of which are not at present below their Neutral Zones (Euro, Silver, Oil). Session volatility is again moderate to this time of day, and indeed by Market Ranges, EDTRs are (finally) turning upward toward more relatively “normal” levels across the last 12 months. By Market Rhythms: on a 10-test basis the Euro’s daily Moneyflow study is our most consistent, followed by Silver’s 12hr MACD and then again the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis, the best of the bunch is Copper’s 1hr Parabolics. Mind our Earnings Season page as that for Q3 is underway. And for the Econ Baro today we’ve September’s ADP Employment along with the ISM(Svc) Index, plus August’s Factory Orders.
03 October 2023 – 09:02 Central Euro Time
The gutting of Gold (1839) continues, the Dollar Index approaching its 107 handle, a level not seen since November 2021. However, Gold by Market Values is (in real-time) -115 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly historical extreme: such prior deviation (per 01 July 2021) then found Gold move up by better than +200 points into the start of the 2022 RUS/UKR conflict, even as the Dollar strengthened across the same stint; (more on that in next Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update). At present, Gold is below today’s Neutral Zone, as are the Swiss Franc and Copper; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is again moderate. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” are (in real-time) accelerating their drop: with the two recent daily lows in the 88s having been breached, the next structural low is 85.49. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 10 metrics due tomorrow through Friday. And Q3 Earnings Season begins this morning.
02 October 2023 – 09:07 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets begin October on a mixed note. At present, we’ve the Bond, Gold and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are the Swiss Franc, Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update confirms the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped to Short; and as anticiapted, such trend for Silver today has provisionally flipped as well to Short. Oil continues to flirt with its 90 handle: at Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” are slowly slipping lower; and at Market Values in real-time, Oil is +7.36 points above its smooth valuation line; price has not been below such line since 03 July, (price then 69.53 vs. today’s 91.24). The Econ Baro awaits September’s ISM(Mfg) Index and August’s Construction Spending.
29 September 2023 – 09:09 Central Euro Time
Following its fourth-consecutive down day, Gold is at present above its Neutral Zone as are Silver, Copper, the Euro and Swiss Franc; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the white metal already having traded 108% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil, which yesterday traded its widest high-to-low range (-3.64 points) since 22 June, still finds its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) not having recovered their +80% level, (thus Tuesday night’s Sell signal remains intact if not over-ridden by prudent cash management): price yesterday reached to as high as 95.03 vs. the present 91.71; 90.50 continues as Market Profile support, followed somewhat structurally by the low 88s. Among today’s income metrics for the Econ Baro we’ve September’s Chi PMI, plus August’s Personal Income/Spending along with the Fed-favoured inflation gauge: the Core PCE Index.
28 September 2023 – 09:09 Central Euro Time
Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long to Short, (as tweeted [@deMeadvillePro] last evening); more on this outlying exception in next Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update. Tweeted too was Oil’s breaking above its recent high (93.74) such that from a cash management perspective ’tis better to stand aside for the moment. At present, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone: currently 22.70, should 22.32 trade, its weekly parabolic trend would also, like Gold, flip to Short. As for the S&P 500, its down-stint during these past two weeks has lacked “fear” as revealed our MoneyFlow page. Today’s metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Pending Home Sales and the final read of Q2 GDP.
27 September 2023 – 09:06 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets are at present mixed: both the Swiss Franc and Gold are below their Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both the Bond and Oil; volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold is a disappointment: trading to as low as 1913, should 1905.1 (precisely) trade, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall provisionally flip to Short. As for Oil, despite it being up today, its “Baby Blues” did confirm settling yesterday below their key +80% axis: the price area of 87 to 85 shows some degree of structural support, whilst nearer Market Profile support shows at 90.50; and by Market Values, Oil’s smooth valuation line (in real-time) is 83.19. The Econ Baro looks to August’s Durable Orders.
26 September 2023 – 09:10 Central Euro Time
Red is the watchword for the BEGOS Markets, all of which at present are below their respective Neutral Zones for today. Session volatility is moderate across the board, which is refreshing given the otherwise narrower-than-average EDTRS (see Market Ranges). Oil (currently 88.69) has its real-time “Baby Blue” dot at +78%: if this provisional sub +80% level is confirmed by close, we look to lower price levels, just as was the case some five weeks ago, albeit the downside follow-through from that signal was muted; the average price follow-through of the four “Baby Blues” signals that have occurred from one year ago-to-date is 5.7 points, (which in that vacuum alone from here “suggests” the 83s, without regards for other measurings). The Econ Baro gets its week going with September’s Consumer Confidence and August’s New Home Sales.
25 September 2023 – 09:00 Central Euro Time
The Bond begins its week on a down note, at present trading below today’s Neutral Zone; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to price’s still not being able to get off the mat even as the weekly parabolic trend enters its fifth week of being Long. As for Oil (currently 90.58), its “Baby Blues” (in real-time) have further slipped to the +86% level as we continue to watch for the +80% level to be breached, toward then anticipating lower price levels; at Market Values, Oil is +7.85 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to 12 incoming metrics for the week, (with none due today), notably featuring the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of the Core PCE Index for August come Friday.
22 September 2023 – 09:05 Central Euro Time
Our Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light, (save for the Yen, which whilst not yet a formal BEGOS component, has traced 102% of its EDTR by our Market Ranges calculation). Yesterday’s selling in the S&P did not exhibit “fear” such as to drive the MoneyFlow differential lower; still by historical standards, the “live” p/e of the S&P remains excessively high, the futs-adj’d read now 37.3x. We continue to mind Oil (currently 90.19) and notably its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) which in real-time are at +89%: below +80% would make us anticipative of further near-term selling.
21 September 2023 – 09:04 Central Euro Time
Post-Fed we’ve Oil as the sole BEGOS Market at present below today’s Neutral Zone; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The FOMC’s Policy Statement was fairly as expected: a key Fed metric for which to watch is the 29 September release of August’s Core PCE Index. Oil’s “Baby Blues” have (in real-time) kinked lower for the first time since 29 August: once below their +80% axis we can make a guesstimate as to near-term downside price distance; even by Market Values, Oil still is better than +6 points above tis smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with metrics including September’s Philly Fed Index, August’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators and Existing Home Sales, plus Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
20 September 2023 – 09:12 Central Euro Time
Oil is trading below 90 (89.65) for the first time this week: it is the only BEGOS Market at present outside of today’s Neutral Zone; by Oil’s Market Profile, trading supports show at 88.40, then 86.90-86.40; and by Market Rhythms, Oil’s 6hr and 1hr Parabolics have of late provided attractive swung consistency on a 10-test basis. The compression in the EuroCurrencies is such (see both Market Profiles and Market Ranges) that we anticipate range breaking open in the wake of today’s FOMC Policy Statement: the consensus is for the Fed to stand pat; ramped up inflation (both retail and wholesale) can support a FedFunds increase, however housing data has sufficiently weakened per this week’s reports, (NAHB, HousingStarts/Permits).
19 September 2023 – 09:09 Central Euro Time
Gold and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. As highlighted in the current edition of the Gold Update, the yellow metal has confirmed its 12hr MACD crossing from Short to Long such that we’re seeking the mid-1970s near-term (current price is 1952). Looking at the best of our Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, topping the stack for consistency are Silver’s 6hr Parabolics, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow, and Gold’s 2hr MoneyFlow. Oil’s deviation from its smooth valuation line (See Market Values) is +10.64 points ((in real-time with price at 91.16); ’tis the most extreme deviation in at least a year. The final data due for the Econ Baro ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Policy Statement is today’s reports for Housing Starts/Permits in August.
18 September 2023 – 09:03 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc, Metals Triumvirate and Oil are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same to start the week, and volatility is light. The Gold Update acknowledges the rather precarious start to the precious metals’ parabolic Long trends which (still intact) commenced two weeks ago; however, both Gold and Silver have been getting a bit of a bid since Friday; see too Gold’s MACD on its 12hr candles — our best Market Rhythm for the yellow metal at present — per our Gold page itself. With Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement in mind (a rate raise wouldn’t surprise us), the Econ Baro faces a moderate pace of incoming metrics this week, including September’s NAHB Housing Index due today.
15 September 2023 – 08:54 Central Euro Time
Contrary to this time yesterday, the precious metals are getting a deserved boost with both Gold and Silver at present above today’s Neutral Zones, as are both Copper and the Euro; the latter along with the Swiss Franc see their cac volumes rolling today from September into December. Session volatility is again moderate-to-robust, notably for the metals. At Market Values, Oil finds itself (in real-time) +9.49 points above the smooth valuation line; the Euro is -3 full points below same, even as the ECB moved to a record-high rate stance yesterday. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ-Baro with September’s NY State Empire Index and UofM Sentiment, plus August’s IndProd/CapUtil and Ex/Im Prices.
14 September 2023 – 09:15 Central Euro Time
The precious metals continue to weaken, albeit their relatively fresh weekly parabolic trends remain Long: Silver at present is below today’s Neutral Zone; Copper is above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver having already traced 104% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Much is being made ado about the increase in August’s CPI, albeit the headline number (+0.6%) matched the consensus expectation, and moreover as we pointed out a month ago, July’s PPI (which tends to lead the CPI a month out) already had popped. August’s PPI is due today for the Econ Baro, along with other metrics including the month’s Retail Sales and July’s Business inventories. The FOMC’s next Policy Statement is Wednesday (20 September).
13 September 2023 – 09:09 Central Euro Time
Both Gold and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the precious metals have been struggling these past two weeks, even as their respective weekly parabolic trends have both flipped from Short to Long, (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The balance of the BEGOS Markets are with their Neutral Zones, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. Oil remains up, now better than +8 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and settling last evening +3.55 points above its Market Magnet, both fairly high readings. The Econ Baro looks to August’s CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 September 2023 – 09:10 Central Euro Time
At present, the Euro is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is mostly light. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last Thursday and reprised in the current edition of The Gold Update, Market Ranges (with the exception of the Spoo) have noticeably narrowed of late, such as to give thought for expansive moves in the near-term balance, (especially it being the September/October period): tis well worth minding the Market Ranges page, certainly so when considering prudent cash management. At Market Rhythms, our most consistent on a 10-test swing basis is again the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study; on a 24-test swing basis, the best of the bunch is the Bond’s 2hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro remains quiet with both retail and wholesale inflation data due in the ensuing two days.
11 September 2023 – 09:01 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets begin the week with a “boom”: at present, six of the eight components are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the two exceptions are Oil (within same) and the Bond (below same); volatility even early on is moderate-to-robust. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from September into December with 49 points of additional premium given the higher interest rate environment; “fair value” in toto is thus 53 points for today. The Gold Update emphasizes the precious metals needing to get swiftly off the mat following last week’s declines, even as the weekly parabolic trends for both Gold and Silver remain newly Long. The “live” P/E (40.1x) for the S&P 500 has reverted to its lifetime mean (since 2013; see too the closing graphic in The Gold Update). Whilst a busy week of 15 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, none come due until Wednesday.
08 September 2023 – 08:59 Central Euro Time
A slightly weaker Dollar is giving the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals a bid this morning, with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present above their respective Neutral Zones; Copper is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, BEGOS Markets’ EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have really compressed of late (save for that of the Spoo) such that more substantive moves may be in the offing, (and of course ’tis September). Gold is flirting with Market Profile Support at 1942 (current price 1949). The Econ Baro concludes its week with July’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit.
07 September 2023 – 09:05 Central Euro Time
At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are again within today’s respective Neutral Zones, and volatility is, in turn, light. Our “live” P/E of the S&P 500 (in fut’s-adj’d real-time) is below 40x (now 39.7x) for the first time since May; ‘course historically, this remains an extremely high level, as we’ve regularly said especially given risk-free three-month U.S. dough yielding 5.3% annualized. Whilst no material “fear” has yet to hit the S&P, there was a tinge of it yesterday as the MoneyFlow suggested an S&P drop of -1.0% vs. that of -0.7% for the Index itself; by Market Profiles, the Spoo’s most dominant overhead resistor is 4518, (price at present is 4458). Meanwhile for whirl-around Oil, price (87.26) is better than +7 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Included today for the Econ Baro are the revisions to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
06 September 2023 – 09:02 Central Euro Time
Quiet is the state of the BEGOS Markets at present: all eight components are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is light. Gold’s drive to an All-Time High has begun with a dive, both the yellow and silver metals well off last week’s settles; by Market Profiles, for Gold (currently 1951) we’ve resistance at 1964 and 1972, with support at 1945 and 1932; for Silver (currently 23.83), Profile resistance shows at 24.60 and 25.00, (with no notable support this low is the Profile); of course, both metals have just commenced weekly parabolic Long trends such that we do not anticipate much downside relative to pending upside. Today’s Econ Baro awaits August’s ISM(Svc) Index and July’s Trade Deficit. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
05 September 2023 – 10:04 Central Euro Time
The second of the two-day session finds all eight BEGOS Markets in the red, and all (save for the Euro) at present below their respective Neutral Zones. Combining the two days, session volatility is moderate-to-robust, with both Silver and Copper having traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis our most consistent studies are Gold’s 2hr MoneyFlow, the Euro’s ongoing daily MoneyFlow, and Silver’s 8hr Parabolics; on a 24-test swing basis, our leader is the Bond’s 2hr Price Oscillator. For the primary BEGOS components, the best correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold. The Econ Baro looks to July’s Factory Orders.
04 September 2023 – 09:00 Central Euro Time
We start the week with a safe-haven BEGOS Markets’ bid: at present both the Swiss Franc and Gold are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; Oil is below same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to an All-Time High route given the fresh new weekly parabolic trend and the typical percentage gains that historically ensue. At Market Values, we’ve Oil nearly +6 points above its smooth valuation line. And at Market Trends, both the Euro and Swiss Franc find their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency struggling to get off the floor, the Dollar Index during July moving from the 99s to now the 104s. The Econ Baro awaits 8 incoming metrics as the week unfolds. StateSide bourses are closed for Labor Day; thus the BEGOS Markets are in a two-day session for Tuesday settlement, with trading halts late Monday (today).
01 September 2023 – 08:56 Central Euro Time
September starts with Copper the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper having thus far traced 69% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil — for which we’ve been seeking near-term the mid-to-low 70s — has whirled ’round upward, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) also having reversed course back higher, (albeit the 21-day LinReg trend itself still is negative): the Blues looked to lower price levels from 79.26 (16 August), however price since weakened to only 77.59: ’tis at present 83.79; the recent high from some three weeks ago is 84.89; dominant Market Profile support is now 80.00. The Econ Baro concludes its week with StateSide August Payrolls data and the ISM Index, plus July’s Construction Spending.
31 August 2023 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
We close out August with the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge: Core PCE for July; expectations are for +0.2% for the month, (however a +0.3% reading as reasoned in the current edition of the Gold Update wouldn’t overly surprise us … but ‘twould the markets). Specific to the Spoo, it settled yesterday a full +100 points above its Market Magnet, an extreme deviation by that metric; thus we still do not see fear in the S&P’s MoneyFlow; currently our best Spoo Market Rhythm for swing consistency is the 2hr parabolic study. Otherwise early on this morning, we’ve the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper as the BEGOS Markets at present outside (all below) today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility remains light by this hour. For the Econ Baro, other measures today also include July’s Personal Income/Spending.
30 August 2023 – 09:07 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Silver and Copper are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is again light. Late in yesterday’s session, the cac volume for the Bond rolled from September into December, as is the like case today for Silver. The S&P 500 yesterday unwound a technically “textbook oversold” condition that had been in place through the prior 10 sessions; of course fundamentally with the “live” P/E at 43.2x, the Index remains in an extremely overbought state, especially given the higher risk-free interest rate environment. The Econ Baro looks to August’s ADP Employment data, July’s Pending Home Sales, and the first revision to Q2’s GDP.
29 August 2023 – 09:06 Central Euro Time
At present ’tis but the Bond which is outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; overall BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. We’ve recently anticipated Oil to drop from ’round the low 80s (currently 79.85) to the 75-72 area given the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) commencing what now has become better than an ongoing two-week decline: by Market Values, price is fairly in synch with its smooth valuation line as well as with its Market Magnet; by its Market Profile, Oil settled yesterday at 80, its most dominantly-traded level of the past fortnight. The Econ Baro gets its busy week going today with August’s Consumer Confidence.