Mark

As Q1 comes to a close, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper all trading at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, the sole component still in negative regression is Oil even as its rising “Baby Blues” refute the downside consistency with price moving higher these last couple of weeks. The Bond, which produced negative “Baby Blues” and daily Parabolics signals has yet to move substantially in either direction; that pace ought accelerate today with the release of the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for February. Also included for the Econ Baro today are that month’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the Chicago PMI for March.

The BEGOS Markets remain fairly subdued this morning with volatility continuing at a light pace. Still, the S&P’s firm up session yesterday has pushed the P/E to a “live” (futs-adj’d) reading of 47.7x; too, the positive stance of the MoneyFlow has again shown its leading qualities for higher S&P levels despite broad expectations for significantly lower levels: indeed we still sense an S&P to reach sub-3000 as the year unfolds given poor earnings growth and attractive short-term debt yields. The Econ Baro’s metrics today include the final revision to Q4’s GDP.

Gold – the cac volume for which is rolling from April into June – is the sole BEGOS Market at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; above same is the Spoo, and volatility remains light. The Bond issued two negative signals yesterday: the daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short (from the June cac level of 130 11/32), whilst the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis; the mid-126s seem a reasonable target area; too at Market Values, the Bond in real-time shows as nearly four points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve February’s Pending Home Sales.

Following a fairly inactive day for equities, we ‘ve at present the Euro above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst the Swiss Franc and Silver are below same; volatility is again mostly light. By our Market Ranges page, the Bond has been very expansive late, as has Gold, whereas less so have been Copper and Oil. That noted, by Market Trends, both the Bond and Gold are seeing their “Baby Blues” of linear regression trend consistency beginning to roll over to the downside: upon their breaching the +80% levels we’d then expect to see lower prices near-term; again by Market Values, Gold became quite stretched of late and — whilst clearly very cheap by currency debasement — our “live” deviation from the smooth valuation line shows price as 104 points high; should Gold indeed let go further, its Market Profile price supports are 1929, 1923, and 1912; (price is currently 1953). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Consumer Confidence.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update acknowledges that although Gold is a bit stretched to the upside via our Market Values page, that nonetheless the near-to-medium term remains firmly bullish, and moreover that Silver has been catching up to Gold (the G/S ratio in decline, albeit still historically high). At Market Trends, the only two BEGOS Markets in negative linear regression are Oil and Copper. The “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 46.5x. By Market Rhythms, our most consistent study on a 10-swing test basis is Gold’s 1hr. Price Oscillator; on a 24-swing test basis ’tis the Bond’s 30mn. Parabolics. The Econ Baro today is quiet ahead of a moderate week of incoming metrics.

Both the Bond and Silver are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; below same are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; and session volatility is light-to-moderate. We again stress per our S&P MoneyFlow page that the inFlow is outpacing the actual change in the Index itself, suggestive there still being no “fear” in the market, and that indeed higher Index levels are in the offing, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 46.1x. And at Market Values, the least deviation is by the Spoo at 43 points below its smooth valuation line; for the balance of the Primary BEGOS Markets, the Bond shows as nearly 7 points “high”, the Euro as over 0.02 points “high”, Gold as 151 points “high” and Oil as over 7 points “low”. The Econ Baro closes out its relative inactive week with February’s Durable Orders.

The S&P 500, after responding positively to yesterday’s anticipated +25bp FedFunds rate increase, was then significantly turned back negatively upon the Treasury’s not intending to expand protection for bank depositors. Regardless this morning, the Spoo is trading at present above its Neutral Zone for today, as too are both the Euro and Copper; Silver is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate in the context that Market Ranges have expanded. By Market Rhythms, the two most consistent are the Bond’s 30-minute Parabolics and MACD. Included for the Econ Baro today are February’s New Home Sales and Q4’s Current Account Balance.

Ahead of the Fed, the BEGOS are expectantly quiet, all eight components at present within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility clearly is light. As has much of the FinWorld, we’ve moved our Fed guesstimate for today from +50bp (which was much the rage pre-banking ills) down to +25bp; for the Fed to do otherwise (no change or +50bp) would well set markets into a bit of a panic. At Market Trends, most of the components are in positive linear regression, the expectations being Oil and the Spoo (just barely). Indeed, the S&P’s extreme P/E aside (the “live” futs-adj’d reading now 46.9x), we continue to be impressed (albeit rather perplexed) at the differential between the S&P itself and its far more positive MoneyFlow: and indeed, the Flow being a leading indicator, the Index is holding up quite well in the face of banking illiquidity; indeed post-Fed into week’s end, higher S&P levels wouldn’t surprise us.

Given all the hand-wringing (and legitimately so) over banking illiquidity, ’tis curious to note the S&P 500 is trading ’round where it was upon transiting from February into August, (i.e. it hasn’t materially really gone anywhere). And this morning, the Spoo is quiet; amongst the other BEGOS Markets, only Gold and Silver are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, (see our “Hobson Close” reference in the current edition of The Gold Update), and volatility is mostly light. Notable extremes from our Market Values page include the Bond as some 6 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, Gold as 131 points “high” and Oil as nearly 10 points “low”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s Exiting Home Sales.

With UBS acquiring CS we’ve both the Bond and Gold at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Oil and the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update supports price within the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend as being en route to a new All-Time High (above 2089) and the mid-2100s reasonably in range within a few months (if not swiftly) on this run. Yields are coming off on the wake of banking illiquidity: of note, FedFundsFuts (which were above 5%) are now at 4.585% whilst the 3-month T-Bill (after nearly 5%) is down to 4.293%; comparably, the “live” yield (futs-adj’d) on the S&P is 1.737% and the excessively-high P/E is 44.3x. The Econ Baro has a very quiet week ahead with just five incoming metrics due; the week’s highlight is Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement, which given the banking strife may not render the otherwise anticipated +50bp increase.

Save for the Bond and Spoo, the other six BEGOS Markets all are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate within the context that Market Ranges are expanding across the board. Despite the concerns over the banking sector, money continues to pour into the S&P 500, our MoneyFlow page for the quarterly measure suggesting the S&P (now 3960) “ought be” some 500-600 points even higher than ’tis; regardless, such rampant buying has pushed the “live” P/E of the S&P to a fut’s-adj’d 46.7x given, too, the lack of earnings growth; thus to revert to the lifetime mean of 22.6x would be a price correction of worse than -50%. The Econ Baro concludes its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey, along with February’s IndProd/CapUtil and Leading (lagging) Indicators.

The Euro and Swiss Franc both are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Swiss Franc which is vibrant with a 129% EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) as the SNB stands to assist CS. By our S&P MoneyFlow page, “no fear” remains the status: indeed for yesterday, the weakest Flow drain from the S&P was that by TSLA, whilst MSFT, AMZN and AAPL dominated the inflow. Gold appears poised to flip its weekly parabolic Short trend to Long if not by week’s end then in a week’s time, barring a notably down-run. The Econ Baro awaits metrics including March’s Philly Fed Index, plus February’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.

We’ve the Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, quite recently all in negative linear regression, now positive are those for the Bond, Euro (barely), Swiss Franc and Gold. By Market Profiles, Gold has built in trading resistance at 1911. Per Market Rhythms (on a 24-swing test basis) the most consistent study is Gold’s 60-minute Parabolics. And somewhat contrary to mainstream expectations, the S&P has been quite firm in the face of bank insolvencies, throughout which our MoneyFlow as a leading indicator has been fairly positive with lack of fear (as yet) in the balance. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Index, February’s Retail Sales and PPI, and January’s Business Inventories.

The S&P 500 avoided mainstream expectations for a “Monday Massacre”, the Index finishing lower by an insignificant -0.2%; but ’twas certainly rangy, the Spoo itself trading in excess of 200% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). This morning, the Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present above today’s Neutral Zone; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Oil; and volatility is moderate. Going ’round the horn for the five primary components per Market Values, we’ve the Bond as some 5.5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro as 1.6 points “high”, Gold as 62 points “high”, Oil as 2.9 points “low” and the Spoo as 123 points “low”. The Econ Baro looks to February’s CPI.

As the Fed rides in on its white horse to scoop up Silicon Valley Bank’s depositors, the BEGOS Markets are firmly rallying as the Dollar dives toward a one-month low. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Glod, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst only below same is the Bond; volatility is moderate-to-robust, notably with the Bond, Gold and Spoo having already exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update highlights price’s perseverance given the Fed’s notion of not necessarily coming to the Treasury’s rescue upon a default. As for the S&P, the selling last week remained without fear as measured by our MoneyFlow page, the Index indeed barely reaching into “textbook oversold” territory.

Following yesterday’s bank-induced selloff, the Spoo is down further, now below its Neutral Zone for today as are Copper and Oil; above same are the Bond and Swiss Franc, and volatility is already moderate-to-robust; as noted this week, the narrowing of Market Ranges rightly foretold a burst in volatility. At Market Trends, all eight BEGOS Markets are now in negative linear regression. At Market Rhythms (10-swing test basis), both Silver’s 2hr. Moneyflow and Copper’s 30mn Moneyflow are the leaders. And for the Econ Baro we receive February’s Jobs data and Treasury Budget.

The relatively quiet morning trading continues, at present Copper being the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility is again light. Again we emphasize by our Market Ranges pages just how narrow they’ve become of late, suggestive of volatility suddenly increasing: a catalyst there may well be the Fed returning to rate increases of +50bp come their 22 March Policy Statement, (something to which we first stated in The Gold Update back on 04 February). And as Market Ranges narrow, so do components’ prices come more into line with their Market Values: per that page for five primary BEGOS Markets, only Gold seems a bit far afield of its smooth valuation line (price in real-time -46 points low). As for the mounting Gold/Silver ratio, ’tis now 90.6x: more graphically on that in this next Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update. As for Market Rhythms, the most consistent study (24-swing test basis) has been the Spoo’s 60-minute Moneyflow.

Save for the Bond (and the Dollar), the BEGOS Markets sold off rather substantially yesterday as the Fed looks to keep pressure on rate raises; (FedChair Powell’s second day of Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony is today). This morning however, all eight BEGOS components are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is thus far light. At Market Ranges, their recent narrowing is clearly noticeable, perhaps leading toward more volatility in the offing. Copper’s linear regression (see Market Trends) has rotated back to negative, leaving Oil as the sole component with a positive (barely) trend. The “live” P/E of the S&P is 41.2x and the yield is 1.690%; (that annualized for the 3-month T-Bill is 4.845%). The Econ Baro looks to February’s ADP Jobs data and January’s Trade Deficit. Late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

‘Tis again a quiet start for the BEGOS Markets: Only Copper at present is outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility remains light. Contract trading volume yesterday across the components was notably low. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” for both the Swiss Franc and the Spoo moved above their respective -80% axes, suggestive of higher price levels near-term; indeed the Blues are rising across all eight of the BEGOS components in concert with the Dollar perhaps losing some near-term ground as noted in the current edition of The Gold Update. For the Econ Baro today we’ve January’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit. And FedChair Powell begins his two-day Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.

The Swiss Franc is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is beginning the week light. The Gold Update makes mention of the Dollar technically to see some near-term weakness; but the overriding point is there being more contract volume being traded for Gold’s recent up move than for its prior move down. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded with an overall cap-weighted gain for the reporting S&P 500 constituents of +2.7%, (clearly lacking the pace of inflation). At this fut’s-adj’d writing, the “live” P/E of the S&P is now 43.2x, evident of lackluster earnings. At Market Trends, both Copper and Oil are now in positive linear regression. And the Econ Baro starts its week with January’s Factory Orders.

In reversal from this time yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are higher, with two (Oil and the Spoo) not at present above their Neutral Zone; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is teasing the top of its 1851-1798 support zone. The S&P 500 yesterday unwound its near-term “textbook oversold” condition; our MoneyFlow page for the S&P by both the monthly and quarterly measures suggests higher Index levels; however this can swiftly reverse upon substantive selling of the largest-cap components; (indeed the daily measure already has reversed to negative). The Econ Baro wraps up its week with February’s ISM(Svc) Index.

All eight BEGOS Markets are in the red, and six at present (save for Gold and Oil) are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is moderate. Gold’s high thus far this session (1845) is also its most dominantly traded price of the last two weeks, (see Market Profiles); trading supports show as both 1834 and 1818, (all within the overall 1851-1798 support zone). Even as the S&P 500 slips away, the “live” P/E (fut’s adj’d) is 39.1; of note, the Index is entering its fifth day as “textbook oversold”. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include the revision to Q4 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Bond is at present below today’s Neutral zone, whilst above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; volatility already is moderate-to-robust as March begins. Gold, which by Market Values is some -50 points below its smooth valuation line, appears to be getting a bit of a grip within its overall 1851-1798 support zone, (price currently 1841); the other four primary BEGOS Markets are relatively near their respective Market Value lines. The S&P 500 is becoming mildly textbook oversold: we expect lower levels still to ensue near-term, however the MoneyFlow has been upside robust of late. Today for the Econ Baro we’ve February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.

Following a rather “failed rally” yesterday for equities (the S&P having been +1.2% intraday only to finish +0.3%) we’ve the Spoo working lower still; both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present below their Neutral Zones for today, whilst Oil is above same; session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” remain in swift decline for both the Swiss Franc and the Spoo; the trends of all eight BEGOS Markets remain negative. And at Market Values, the price of the Spoo has just penetrated beneath its smooth valuation line, suggestive of still lower levels. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

“Quiet” is the word best describing the beginning of the week for the BEGOS Markets, all eight components at present inside of their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is mostly light, Silver being the sole component thus far having traded in excess of 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update (referring to both Gold and Silver as a “bargain”) looks for the 1851-1798 support zone to hold, whilst acknowledging the low 1700s represent the average downside points follow-though for Short parabolic weekly trends in recent years. For the S&P 500, “sell into strength” would seem ongoing pattern as we enter this final week of Q4 Earnings Season. The Econ Baro today receives January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.

The Swiss Franc and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility continues light per this time of day. Gold yesterday hit a year-to-date low at 1825 as the weekly parabolic Short trend moves along with its course; again the support zone is 1851-1798; Gold by Market Values is -71 points below its smooth valuation line. As for both Silver and Copper, their cac volumes are moving from March into May, (and that for the Bond from March into June). The S&P yesterday averted a fifth consecutive down day; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall, the linear regression trend as noted having only just turned negative; still the Index’s MoneyFlow has been a net gainer, evidence that “fear” has yet to set in. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for January comes into the Econ Baro today, other metrics for the month including Personal Income/Spending and New Home Sales.

‘Tis fairly quiet across the BEGOS Markets with only Copper outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, as anticipated the Spoo’s linear regression has rotated to negative: thus all eight components are now in descending trends as the Dollar pushes upward into its highs which began the year. By Market Rhythms, the Spoo’s 2-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short: typical price follow-through would be a run down to 3950; ‘course that can be further exacerbated by the daily MACD, Moneyflow and Parabolic all having just recently gone Short as well. And for the Econ Baro we’ve the 2nd read of Q4, the consensus for which is the same +2.9% annualized rate initially reported, (even as the Econ Baro declined on Q4 metrics).

Yesterday’s early leaders are today’s early losers, both Copper and Oil at present below their respective Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s MoneyFlow decline was on par with that for the S&P itself, however there has yet to be substantive “fear” in the selling to this point; as noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linear regression trend whilst still positive has nearly rotated to negative (see Market Trends) which could induce more fear-oriented selling near-term. Too, the yield on the S&P 500 is now 1.695% vs. that for the 3-month T-Bill of 4.688%. As for Gold, despite further geo-political stirrings, price remains content in dealing with the 1851-1798 support zone, even as Friday’s 1st RUS/UKR war anniversary approaches; and as oft pointed out, geo-political Gold price spikes tend to wane in full shortly thereafter.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues with only Copper and Oil at present above their Neutral Zones; notably below same are the Bond, Gold and Spoo.; overall session volatility incorporating the two days is now moderate-to-robust, Copper having traded 103% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are swiftly falling such that by week’s-end all eight components many be in negative linear regression as the Dollar these last few weeks continues to regain the bid. And going ’round the horn at Market Values (in real-time), the Bond shows as -4.9 points “low” per its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -1.68 points “low”, Gold as -67 points “low”, Oil as 1.71 points “low” and the Spoo as +59 points “high”. The Econ Baro looks to January’s Existing Home Sales.

Given the StateSide holiday we’ve a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets, beginning the week with Oil at present above its Neutral Zone; the balance of the components are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update confirms the weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Long to Short: therein we anticipate the 1851-1798 support zone to hold. For the Spoo by its daily rhythms, both the Parabolics and Moneyflow studies confirmed flipping Short effective today’s open; (the daily MACD was first to so do a week ago); however per our S&P MoneyFlow page, money has been substantively thrown into the market essentially at the ignorance of the S&P’s still extremely high P/E, the futs’adj’d “live” reading now 39.8x; there remain two weeks to run in Q4 Earnings Season.

All eight BEGOS Markets are in the red, seven of them (save for Oil) at present below their respective neutral zones for today; volatility is moderate. As we glide into a three-day StateSide weekend, the Spoo again looks to confirm what this week has been a whippy Moneyflow signal to Short, possibly targeting the lower 3900s, depending upon the level of this Sunday night opening; (the BEGOS Markets trade through most of Monday even as the U.S. physical bourses are closed). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s still positive linear regression is more swiftly rotating toward negative as the “Baby Blues” (in real-time) have begun accelerating their fall. Specific to our calculation of the S&P’s MoneyFlow, some fear finally emerged in yesterday’s selling, the Flow suggesting a drop for the S&P of -2.3% vs. the Index’s actually dropping only -1.4%. The Econ Baro wraps its week with January’s Ex/Im Prices and Leading (lagging) Indicators.

Both Copper and Oil are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 (for which the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 41.0x) is now “textbook overbought” through these past 24 trading days; by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 157 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; and by its Market Profile, the two most dominantly-traded underlying supports are 4145 and 4125. This week’s busy cavalcade of incoming Econ Baro metrics continues, today including February’s Philly Fed Index and January’s Housing Start/Permits plus the PPI.

We’ve at present the Euro, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably having traded already traded 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) to as low as 1842. The Spoo is seeing its daily Moneyflow rhythm being whipsawed, having gone from Long to Short into Monday, Short to Long into Tuesday, and now Long to Short into today, reflective of lacking commitment to drive the S&P higher, (it now being “textbook overbought” through the past 23 trading days); still by Market Trends, the Spoo remains the sole component in positive linear regression, but with its “Baby Blues” lacking upside puff. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with February’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index, January’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and December’s Business Inventories.

Only the Bond is at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; the other BEGOS Markets are relatively quiet, and volatility is notably light ahead of today’s retail inflation report, the headline CPI “expected” to have leapt from negative in December to positive for January. Gold: as anticipated, its weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long to Short (and barring a rise above 1975 by week’s end, ’twill be confirmed). The “live” P/E of the of S&P is 40.9x and the Index is now “textbook overbought” for 22 consecutive trading days. And by Market Values (in real-time) the Spoo is 138 points “high” versus is smooth valuation line.

Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update anticipates lower levels for the yellow metal (a support zone being 1851-1798) especially should the weekly parabolic Long trend flip to Short this week, (the trigger there being 1862 and the low thus far today already 1868). At Market Trends, the Spoo is the only component with a positive linear regression trend; however, both the daily Moneyflow and daily MACD confirmed flipping to Short per today’s open: by our Market Rhythms measures, either study suggests at least a -100-point drop for the Spoo during the course of the Short period, the span for in the past have typically run for some three-to-five weeks. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a packed week of 18 incoming metrics.

Gold and Silver are the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is moderate. The Spoo is having preliminary negative crossings on both its daily MACD and daily Moneyflow, which if confirmed at close to are suggestive of lower levels into next week. Too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) broke below their +80% level yesterday as the consistency of the positive linear regression trend begins to break down. Even as the S&P itself finished down yesterday, it nonetheless recorded its 20th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E remains stubbornly high at 40.0x. The Econ Baro concludes its light week with January’s UofM Sentiment Survey and December’s Treasury Budget.

Both Copper and the Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. By Market Values (real-time readings), both Gold and Oil are fairly in line with their smooth valuation levels; the Bond shows as 2.6 points “low”, the Euro as .0216 points “low”, and the Spoo as 151 points “high”; the Spoo (4156) by its Market Profile can see selling accelerate sub-4125. The S&P’s “textbook overbought” streak is now 19 trading days in duration and the “live” P/E is 40.4x. The Econ Baro’s quiet week continues with just the prior week’s Jobless Claims on today’s menu.

FedChairPowell’s address yesterday put the S&P into a highly whipsaw mode, albeit the Spoo at present early on is “unch”; the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday completed the S&P 500’s 18th consecutive day as “textbook overbought” and the “live” P/E this morning is 41.4x. At Market trends we’ve now negative linear regressions for the Bond, Silver, Copper and Oil. And by Market Values, four of the five primary components (the Bond, Euro, Gold and Oil) are below their smooth valuation lines, but none extremely so. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s Wholesale Inventories.

‘Tis all quiet for the BEGOS Markets upon this marginally earlier post: all eight components are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is light. Still, the S&P 500 recorded its 17th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought” with a “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of 40.1x as Q4 Earnings Season rolls along: thus far for the S&P, 59% (of 240 constituents having reported) have improved their year-over-year bottom lines, (thus 41% have not so done). And specific to the Spoo, we are minding its daily Moneyflow study for a settle below the 48 level (scale 0-100) as it continues to rank best for follow-through consistency amongst the 405 Market Rhythm tests run following each trading day (10-swing test basis); such sub-48 settle would suggest further price fallout. Today the Econ Baro looks to December’s Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.

The week begins with both Gold and Copper at present above their Neutral Zones for today, whilst the Bond and Spoo are flirting below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update confirms the foreseen near-term fall for the yellow metal with an eye to the 1800s being supportive; acknowledged too with Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend nearing a flip to Short, typical price follow-through historically suggests the 1700s again being seen; however at this juncture we’re not anticipating such. At Market Values, the Euro has crossed below its smooth valuation line suggestive of still lower levels as the Dollar attempts to firm without revisiting the sub-100s. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro which has a quiet week ahead with just six incoming metrics due.

StateSide ’tis Payrolls day for January. Save for the Euro which is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, the other BEGOS Markets all are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 now stands as 15 days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 41.2x. The MoneyFlow for the S&P has substantively turned about to the upside, notably into the tech-heavy large cap-weighted constituents, even as year-over-year comparisons are weaker; ’tis remindful in a sense of the race into the 2000-2002 DotComBomb. The Dollar seems firming just above the 100 level, and in real-time the Euro has crossed below its smooth valuation line (See Market Values) suggestive of lower levels. In addition to the jobs data, we’ve also for the Econ Baro January’s ISM(Svc) Index.

Following the anticipated +0.25% FOMC interest rate raise, the BEGOS Markets are relatively quiet with only Copper at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today. Session volatility is mostly light. Gold (rather than running out of puff as we’ve recently suggested) has traded thus far today as high as 1975, a price not seen since this past 19 April. The MoneyFlow in the S&P 500, notably post-FOMC, is robust even as the “live” P/E this morning (futs-adj’d) is 41.0x, which historically is an unmaintainable level; too, the Index is now measured for 14 consecutive days as “textbook overbought”; indeed we still seek an S&P sub-3000 as the year unfolds. And by the S&P’s regression channel (on occasion posted in The Gold Update), had COVID not occurred, the Index today on such growth track would likely be sub-3000 regardless. Amongst today’s incoming metrics, the Econ Baro looks to December’s Factory Orders, plus the initial read of Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Copper is trading at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light ahead of the FOMC’s Policy Statement (19:00 GMT). By Market Values, the Bond, Euro and Oil are in sync with their smooth valuation lines, Gold shows as 62 points “high” and the Spoo as 95 points “high”. The S&P itself is now 13 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” and the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.3x. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominantly traded price across the past ten trading sessions is 4033. For Market Rhythm consistency, on a 10-test swing basis the best of late remains the Spoo’s daily Moneyflow study and on a 24-test swing basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits January’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Mfg) Index, plus December’s Construction Spending.

The Euro and all the components of the metals triumvirate are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500, even having dropped -1.3% yesterday, remains “textbook overbought” now through the past 12 trading days; and by the MoneyFlow page, all three measures have returned to positive differentials, indicative that the recent S&P 500 was substantive; however with the “live” P/E at 38.6x, lack of supportive earnings remains the downside key. As anticipated per the current edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal’s price is starting to come off. Moreover at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” are falling (inclusive of real-time) for all eight BEGOS components. Today’s Econ Baro looks to January’s Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, plus Q4’s Employment Cost Index.

The Bond, Copper and the Spoo all are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update suggests price may run out of puff near-term; too, trading volume rolled from the February contract into that for April, with +16 points of premium. Both the Bond and Copper confirmed parabolic Short signals on their respective daily studies as of today’s open. By Market Trends, the Bond, Gold and Copper all see their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency rolling over following the firm recent rallies in these components. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 15 incoming metrics as the week unfolds.

We were a bit surprised to see the first read on Q4 GDP come in as well as it did at +2.9%, albeit a slower pace than that finalized for Q3’s +3.2%; the Econ Baro’s decidedly negative tilt suggested the number would be notably weaker; we’ll see how the two revisions play out. At present, the Bond and Silver both are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is yet again mostly light. The “live” futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 40.1x with the Index now “textbook overbought” for 10 consecutive trading days. Oil’s trade has narrowed since the 12-hr. MACD turned negative, however price has (yet) to let go to the downside; too by Market Values, price continues to hover above its smooth valuation line. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Baro are December’s Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, and the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today, all the other components are within same, and volatility is again mostly light. Today brings the first read of Q4’s GDP: the consensus expects a lower read than for Q3’s +3.2%, and the Econ Baro not only agrees, but suggests the +2.6% expectation may be too robust; (indeed we wouldn’t be entirely surprised by a negative read). The S&P 500 has been “textbook overbought” for nine consecutive trading days: the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.2x. OIl has yet to respond to its negative 12-hr. MACD cross; mind too Oil’s price versus its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Other metrics included for the Baro today are December’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

Both Gold and the Spoo are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. At Market Values, Oil is curling down towards its smooth valuation line; too, Oil’s 12-hr. MACD (its best Market Rhythm at present) is crossing to negative. By Market Trends, Silver is the only component in negative regression. For swing consistency, topping the list (on a 10-test basis) is the Swiss Franc’s 30-mn. Moneyflow study, whilst (on a 24-test basis) the leader (whilst not an official BEGOS component) is the Yen’s 2-hr. MACD. The Econ Baro remains quiet today ahead of 10 incoming metrics over the next two days.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present not inside, (indeed above), its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As much as we champion Gold’s rise (from 1618 on 03 November to its present 1941 level), we remain wary of price’s deviation above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) which in real-time is 105 points; regardless, Gold’s cac volume is improved over that of the prior two months, evidence that the yellow metal is “getting the bid.” Money too has been flowing by our near-term measure (see S&P MoneyFlow) into the S&P 500 even as its “live” P/E is a fut’s-adj’d 39.5x; however the Spoo by Market Values is only some 55 points high; still, the S&P itself has been “textbook overbought” for the past seven trading days; the Spoo (at present 4034) by Market Profiles finds its most dominantly traded price across the past fortnight as 4013.

The week begins with Gold the only weak link, price at present below its Neutral Zone for today; all of the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price having been steady as the Econ Baro has suffered a plunge, and reiterates the 1800s having morphed (we anticipate) from resistance into support; by Market Values in (real-time), Gold is 92 points above its smooth valuation line which suggests some stalling or near-term downside; but on balance, Gold’s present picture is quite durable. For the S&P 500, its “live” P/E is (futs-adj’d) 39.3x and the yield is 1.662% (vs. the 4.538% annualized yield on the 3-month T-Bill). For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.