Mark

The Gold Update: No. 814 – (21 June 2025) – “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 814th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 21 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?“

Let’s celebrate today’s Summer Solstice (02:42 GMT) with the first sentence from The Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement dated this past Wednesday, 18 June:

“Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”

Is that really so?  For as posted yesterday (Friday) on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), the Economic Barometer just reached an oscillative low not seen since 10 September 2009 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  Here ’tis, the Baro and S&P 500 having morphed from being in blissful harmony to comprehensive disconnection:

Further, following the FOMC’s prior Policy Statement (07 May), 74 metrics have since come into the Econ Baro … with only 28 having improved period-over-period … which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “We’re going the wrong way!” despite the claim of the economy expanding “at a solid pace.”  Doubtless such disparity shan’t be on CNBS, et alia.

Neither is Gold watching the Baro; otherwise one ought think the yellow metal would be soaring in “the knowledge” that the FOMC must next vote (30 July) to reduce the Funds Rate, further debasing the Dollar as dough then flows more easily through the Fed’s window into the the money supply.  It may be perennially behind the curve, but surely the Fed has the economy mis-read.  And as for the disconnect from the Baro by the S&P 500, has the latter transited from The Investing Age of Stoopid to that of basically brain-dead?  (More on that in our wrap).

Instead — since the Mid-East conflict ramped up some six trading days ago on 13 June — Gold has been doing exactly what it does during geo-political duress:

  • first it swiftly gains ground;
  • then it all comes back down.

To wit:  Gold settled Thursday 12 June at 3406.  Said conflict then erupted that Friday and through the weekend such as to find Gold by Monday (16 June) having scampered up to as high as 3476 … only to spend the balance of this past week selling off as is its geo-political wont down yesterday to 3356, a full -50 points lower than before ISR attacked IRN.

“Sad to say, but these geo-political events look like pretty easy trades, eh mmb?”

We don’t encourage that nature of risk, Squire, especially as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  But Gold’s geo-political “spikes n’ sinks” regularly pan out, the prime example being back on “911” in 2001.  Gold halted that terror-filled day at 276.  Following the ensuing days of no trading, Gold then worked higher to 296 come 21 September (+7.2%), the largest six-trading-day percentage leap of that year.  Yet a month on, Gold settled all the way back down at 276 on 22 October, the assault on the States “priced in” as if nothing had happened.  Moreover, it took until May of the following year before Gold permanently rose above the 200s.  Certainly more recently we’ve seen Gold “spike n’ sink” over RUS/UKR and now yet again with ISR/IRN, as well as on other examples that we’ve previously documented.

As to the current case, ’twas somewhat surprising that Gold’s geo-political price spike was not enough to flip the weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long, even as we’d anticipated ‘twould in last week’s piece.  Thus Short remains said stint despite price having settled the week at 3384, still a good +164 points higher than when the trend “officially” began per 19 May’s opening trade at 3220, (i.e. “down” has been “up” as we graphically detailed a week ago).  And so to Gold’s updated weekly bars we go, a sixth red dot having joined the show:

To be sure, that rightmost weekly bar came ever so close to the 3480 flip level, price reaching to as high as the aforementioned 3476 level … which in turn is the new hurdle for the ensuing week.

But:  is the Short trend about to become (pardon the pun) elongated?  Per the following two-panel graphic of daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and Sister Silver on the right, we see the baby blue dots beginning to descend.  Mathematically, that means the two respective uptrends have begun to lose their consistency.  And as you regular readers and website viewers well know:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.”  Here’s the graphic:

Then we’ve this next double-panel view as culled from the website:  the precious metals’ Market Magnets, also for the past three months-to-date.  For both Gold at left and Silver at right, price has just moved beneath Magnet.  The rule in this case is to expect prices to further fall; however, given the on-balance strength of the yellow and white metals from May-to-date, such Magnet penetrations have suffered little downside follow-through.  Regardless, whether for near-term trading or in timing the placement of a broader-term strategy, price’s directional movement vis-à-vis its Magnet is a substantive leading tool.  And in this case with the aforeshown “Baby Blues” beginning to rollover, be thee not surprised to find prices move a little lower:

Such near-term negativity noted, let’s next check the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  And whereas Gold is exhibiting underlying volume support at both 3361 and 3351 as labeled, we’ve none by this construct for Silver.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!  Too, for both metals, we also denote their overhead volume resistors:

In sum, a bit more pullback in the precious metals ought not be of much concern, (that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”) even as we’ve key leading indicators that suggest a bit of a near-term a slip.  With 3384 Gold today — a -12% discount to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3827 — price’s best days remain well up the Golden Road.  Indeed, to eclipse the key 3476 level in the new week — and thus flip the weekly trend from Short back to Long — from here is a distance of +92 points.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  151 points.  Clearly doable, especially should another dose of geo-political jitters ensue.  Otherwise, some pullback looks due.

To close, we query:  “Do you scare easily?”  If you’re invested in equities, the following fearful graphic arguably suggests running for cover.  Recall the disconnect with which we opened between the plunging Econ Baro and the flying S&P 500?  Scary.  More broadly for the S&P, really scary!  Such “Casino 500” today at 5968 is some +33% above the top of the yellow regression channel and the “trailing twelve months” price/earnings ratio of 43.5x essentially double any historical norm, (let alone practically triple Jerome B. Cohen’s “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”).

As a fine friend said over coffee this morning “Next year’ll be a disaster for the stock market”, to which we quizzically responded “What about next week?”  Scary indeed:

The good news of course is that all such “scariness” is mitigated given economics no longer have meaning, as neither do earnings.  Employing math is a thing of the past!  Or to reprise what a seasoned investor said to us here back in April:  “Nobody at Goldman [today] has ever experienced a down market.”  Then to close out the FinMedia week came this yesterday from Dow Jones Newswires:  “The Stock Market Has Taken a Lot of Pain for Not Much Gain.”  Look at the top of the above graphic.  They’ve no concept of what market pain is.

Either way, don’t you get mis-read; get Gold instead!

Cheers!

…m…

20 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The two-day session continues, at present finding the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above their Neutral Zones and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate below same; volatility (as is typical in accounting for two days) is mostly robust. The Spoo yesterday traded below its “low if a down day” (5979), price having since rebounded nearly all the way back up. As anticipated, Copper is weaking as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) drop further still; too, those for both Silver and Gold are curling over to the downside: more on it all in tomorrow’s 814th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s recent strength given the Mid-East strife finds price (in real-time) +12.30 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). And the best correlation currently amongst our five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold, albeit the latter has been coming off a bit. The Econ Baro finishes its week with June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. given the Baro, “lagging”) Indicators.

19 June 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement on Friday. At present, we’ve the the two EuroCurrencies, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; volatility thus far is moderate, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer being Gold at 71%; of note, the yellow metal’s weekly Parabolic trend still is Short and would end the week as such, barring a rally from here (3366) of some +114 points (3480 being the flip-to-Long price) by Friday. As for Copper, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) fallout continues without price (as yet) having materially let go to the downside; however today, Copper has marginally slipped below its most dominant volume price supporter (see Market Profiles) at 4.815. The various trading halts for the holiday commence at 17:00 GMT.

18 June 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

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At present we’ve the Euro, Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point being 50% for both Gold and Copper. Specific to the red metal, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue their fall as the consistency of price’s uptrend breaks down. Looking at Market Magnets, save for Oil (which yesterday settled 8.73 points above its Magnet) the balance of the BEGOS Bunch are basically at their respective Magnet levels. Due to tomorrow’s StateSide holiday, the Econ Baro today (rather than Thursday) receives the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims; due too are May’s Housing Starts/Permits. And late in today’s session comes the FOMC’s “no change” Policy Statement, although the plunging Econ Baro and benign (by May) inflation ought be substance for an eventual FedFunds rate cut.

17 June 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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As internally texted last evening, the markets appear to have “priced-in” the Mid-East conflict and now are “on hold” ahead of the Fed on Wednesday: at present, seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today (Silver being just a tad above same), and session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, although the consistency of that for Copper is notably weakening. Oil, which as it did yesterday spiked up and then retreated, still finds by Market Values current price (70.46) +9.65 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; too, the Spoo is at present +151 points “high” by the like measure. ‘Tis quite the cavalcade of incoming metrics due today for the Econ Baro, including June’s NAHB Housing Index, May’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business Inventories.

16 June 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

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Despite Mid-East turmoil, the BEGOS Markets by change appear rather disinterested. Both the Bond and Gold are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility however is moderate-to-robust, primarily as Oil spiked higher at the open to 75.50 but since retreated to now 71.78. The Gold Update acknowledges the weekly parabolic Short trend as having survived another week even as price has been rising throughout: the hurdle for the trend to flip to Long in the new week is 3480, the high today already 3476 before price having since pulled back to now 3436. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from June into September with +54 points of fresh premium; (as noted on Friday, Oil’s cac volume is moving from July into August). And 14 metrics come due for the Econ Baro this week, including for today June’s NY State Empire Index.

The Gold Update: No. 813 – (14 June 2025) – “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 813th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 14 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But“

Gold’s (yes still) ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend was initially triggered on Monday, 12 May upon price trading down through 3243 (at 07:23 GMT).  ‘Twas confirmed by that week’s end, price opening on Monday, 19 May at 3220.  Since then, here is Gold’s continuous contract by the hour, replete with its regression channel:

Why, even you WestPalmBeachers down there can see that price — rather than falling as is the rule within a Short trend — has instead been rising as is the exception.  However, for some two years, such Short trends have mostly been short-lived, pun intended.

To wit:  across the past 94 weeks from that ending 01 September 2023 (Gold then 1966) through yesterday (Gold now 3453), 70 weeks have been within Long trends versus just 24 under Short trends.  And Gold having settled this past week as noted at 3453 — by the continuous contract an All-Time Daily & Weekly Closing High — such price is +76% above where ’twas on that date just 22 months ago.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.  Or as we’ve oft quipped and embedded in the above chart:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”

‘Course, whilst currency debasement is the primary driver of Gold, ramped-up geo-political jitters again abound, stressed by ISR/IRN on top of both ISR/PSE and RUS/UKR.  Plus later today StateSide come coast-to-coast protests versus the policies of the Executive Branch and its display of military might.

So with all that in mind, we go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a fifth rightmost Short trend red dot:

Because this Short trend technically (barely) is still in force, we again acknowledge the 2973-2844 support zone.  Nonetheless, the distance to flip the Short trend back Long is a mere +27 points above here at the 3840 level.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 152 points, (the daily alone now 62 points) the flip ought come quickly, even per an opening up gap on Monday should geo-political tensions escalate through this weekend.  Thus we’re just about there.

“But as you usually say, mmb, price spikes on geo-politics don’t last very long…”

True enough, Squire.  Yet should the trend flip to Long in the new week, reflipping it back to Short wouldn’t initially occur until 3123 trades, some -330 points below present price.  More importantly:  an imminent flip to Long puts a fresh All-Time High above 3510 squarely on the near-term table for Gold:  ’tis just +57 points from here.  So much for the Shorts singin’ “I’m struttin’ my stuff, y’all…” –[Elvin Bishop, ’75].  (Albeit we ought not disparage the Shorts as they accommodate taking the other side of the trade).

Further for those of you scoring at home, through this year’s 24 trading weeks-to-date, Gold is now +31%, this last week’s gain being third-best by both percentage (+3.7%) and points (+122 points) as depicted in the above graphic.  Too, per the website’s “Gold” and “Market Rhythms” pages, Gold’s best Rhythm through its last ten iterations from 03 April-to-date has been the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) on price’s eight-hour series.  (But try not to get carried away).

If anything ought be carried away (on a stretcher) ’tis the Economic Barometer.  As herein penned a week ago:  “…the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years…”

Still, we’ve this from the “Taking the Good with the Bad Dept.”:  as the economy by the Baro is slowing — indeed outright shrinking — inflation for May as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooled; (May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE is not due until 27 June).  Thus the “s” word “stagflation” is not (as yet?) being made “officially” apparent, even if ’tis evident by your own personal engagement in commerce.  We certainly sense it:  the base cost of our triannual purchase of popping corn from the States (as ever so detailed in Gold Update No. 803 from this past 05 April) just increased +10.1% before shipping, tariff and value-added tax.  Yet at least The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June reached a three-month high, (but we can’t see why):

‘Course the true sentiment gainers — certainly so of late — are the precious metals.  Below we’ve the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The baby blues depicting day-to-day trend consistency have spritely leapt higher for both metals in recent weeks.  Regardless, in just the past few days, the yellow metal has garnered more of a geo-political bid than has the white metal, (lest we forget that in the week prior, Sweet Sister Silver gained +9.4% as opposed to just +0.5% for Gold).  Either way, both look great, all told:

Too, life is good near Profile highs.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) we’ve their price ranges for the past fortnight as depicted by volume, the most heavily traded levels as labeled, and the white bars being Friday’s respective settles:

And so toward the wrap here’s The Gold Stack:  what can be better than that?

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3825
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3480
10-Session directional range:  up to to 3467 (from 3314) = +153 points or +4.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
Trading Resistance:  none per the Profile
Gold Currently:  3453, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  62 points)
Trading Support:  notables by the Profile 3445 / 3399 / 3380 / 3351
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3385
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2721 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Come this Wednesday (18 June), the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its next Policy Statement.  Expectations call for the FOMC voting to continue maintaining the target range for its Funds Rate at 4.25%-to-4.50% regardless of the faltering Econ Baro and Q1 annualized GDP shrinkage of -0.2%.  However as you no doubt recall, the bugaboo coupled to that latter figure was the Q1 Chain Deflator of +3.7% … Ouch!  May’s inflation may have cooled, but given economic shrinkage, is there still stagflation linkage?  Perhaps rather than order popcorn by the pack, we ought do so by the pallet…

…and thus keep more Gold and Silver in the wallet!

Cheers!

…m…

13 June 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

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The overnight Mid-East offensive has made robust the volatility of the BEGOS Markets: notable movers are Oil having traced 443% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo 156%, the Euro 113% and Gold 109%. Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, Gold and Oil, whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Gold is getting the geo-political bid (sans Silver) in having traded to as high as 3467, which is not enough to flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 3487 to trade today); more of course in tomorrow’s 813th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in the new week may move below their key +80% axis which would point to lower price levels near-term; the Dollar is firming today (+0.4%) even as Gold is up (+1.1%). The EuroCurrencies’ cac volumes are rolling from June into those for September; watch same for Oil from July into August toward Monday. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with UofM’s Sentiment Survey for June.

12 June 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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Presently, the Euro and Swiss Franc are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive 21-day linreg, which reflects the downturn in the Dollar Index from 100.840 a month ago to now 98.360. However, going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time, we’ve the Bond -2^05 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; for the other primary components, the Euro shows as essentially in synch with such valuation, Gold as +50 points “high”, Oil as +5.99 points “high” and the Spoo as +185 points “high”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include wholesale inflation per May’s PPI.

11 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within their respective Neutral Zones for today and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis the current leaders are the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve (yet again) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euros 2hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD. By Market Trends, in real-time the “Baby Blues” for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are kinking lower for the first time in some three weeks, an early indication that their recent rallies are running out of puff; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have stalled their descent, but have not reversed back upward. The Econ Baro looks to May’s retail inflation via the CPI; and late in the session come’s the month’s Treasury Budget.

10 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate, following a fairly narrow day yesterday; indeed by Market Ranges, all eight BEGOS components have seen plunging EDTRs over the last month. At Market Trends, only the Bond is in negative linreg, however ’tis rotating toward positive; and in real-time, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising across the board including ~barely~ for the Spoo, the latter’s having been in descent for some three weeks without price (as yet) succumbing per se. Regardless, the S&P 500 continues its significant overvaluation, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E currently 47.0x and yield a wee 1.282% vs. 4.240% annualized for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of inflation data into the balance of the week.

09 June 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights Silver’s +9.4% net gain for last week, whereas that for Gold was just +0.5%; and yet with the Gold/Silver ratio now 91.9x, relative to the yellow metal, the white metal nonetheless remains cheap given the century-to-date average ratio of 69.1x. Per Market Values, Gold is essentially on its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is +258 points above same; and yes, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are lower yet again without price having materially fallen, albeit such leading indicator suggests the selling is coming. For the Econ Baro — the negative divergence of which from the S&P 500 is stunning — the week begins with April’s Wholesale Inventories.

The Gold Update: No. 812 – (07 June 2025) – “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 812th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 07 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show“

We simply must start with the spotlight on Silver:  Sweet Sister Silver!  As if shot out of a cannon this past Monday, Silver swiftly soared, by Wednesday reaching 36.27 — a level not having traded in better than 13 years (since 29 February 2012) — then onward to as high yesterday (Friday) as 36.51 before settling the week at 36.13  Just like that!

Oh how many times through hundreds of missives have we stressed “Do NOT forget the Silver!”  For when Silver goes, she GOES!

A stellar week indeed for Sister Silver.  Through now 1,275 trading weeks of the 21st century, this past weekly net gain of +9.4% was Silver’s 21st best, (the largest weekly net gain being +17.4% for that ending 27 March 2020 as COVID closed the globe).  And year-to-date, Silver is now +23.4%, within our Metals Triumvirate having passed Copper +20.1%, atop which Gold still leads +26.2%.

But wait, there’s more:  for relative to Gold, Silver still remains cheap as we turn to the daily Gold/Silver ratio for these past 25 calendar years.

And as you can therein see, the Gold/Silver ratio (now 92.2x) periodically returns to its evolving average (69.1x), at which today we’d find the white metal +33% higher at 48.22 versus the present price of 36.13.  Effectively as a rule of thumb, a ratio above 80x generally leads to higher Silver prices.

“But a decline in gold without silver going up can also bring the ratio down, mmb…”

Unlike the balance of the modern-day financial world, Squire does math.  And were Gold fundamentally overvalued, we’d be on the lookout for such declining ratio impetus.  To be sure, technically Gold remains in a weekly parabolic Short trend.  But by the de facto driver that is Dollar debasement, Gold today at 3331 is -13% undervalued per the opening Scoreboard’s implied 3824 level.  So let Silver also rise to the occasion.

Still as noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short, price on balance lying low for the week in posting a net gain of just +0.5%, overwhelmed by Silver’s aforementioned +9.4% net gain.  In fact as a rare graphical bonus, here are Sister Silver’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date and — contra to Gold’s parabolic trend being Short — hers is Long per the three rightmost blue dots:

In turning now to Gold’s weekly bars, the Short trend thus far actually “appears” up even as the rightmost red parabolic dots are in decline.  Yet price nevertheless has sported three “higher lows” in a row:

Regardless, Gold intra-week had been up as much as +3.5% before basically “…giving it all away…”  –[Roger Daltery, ’73].  Thus the Short trend continues from which an ascent up through 3487 in the new week would initiate a new Long streak.  Such level is +156 points higher from here, which is not that unrealistic as Gold’s expected weekly trading range is presently 151 points.  But should the Short trend stubbornly persist, we remain mindful of the underlying 2973-2844 support zone as maintained on the above graphic.  Either way, for these past five days, the spotlight has shown upon Sweet Sister Silver per her cumulative percentage track versus that for Gold:

‘Course, doing all it can to avoid the spotlight is the Economic Barometer.  This past Wednesday, the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years — since 14 September 2009 — the StateSide economy then arduously trying to recovery from the depths of the FinCrisis.  And today, the Baro’s divergence from the happy-go-lucky-stuck-on-stoopid “Casino 500” stands as stark as perhaps we’ve ever seen (barring our clawing back through 27 years of Baro/S&P data).  Have a view, should you’ve the stomach to so do:

But not to worry!  Rather, ’tis all OK!  Out of the Bond and into the S&P, “Olé!”  Hat-tip Bloomy yesterday, post-May Payrolls data:  “…Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth, prompting traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year … Jobs Surprise…”  Seriously?  “Jobs Surprise”?  Let’s see:  according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Non-Farm Payrolls” growth slowed from 147k in April — itself revised lower from 177k — to 139k in May.  Isn’t that going the wrong way?

“But it beat the 130k consensus, mmb…”

Ah yes, that’s it, Squire:  consensii are more important than reality.  Further, the pace of Hourly Earnings doubled from +0.2% to +0.4%.  So:  job growth is slowing and wages are rising.  Very much akin to the just revised read for Q1 Productivity:  it decreased -1.5% … but Unit Labor Costs increased +6.6%.  Remember the “S” word?  “Stagflation“?   “Got Gold? … Got SILVER?”

Let’s next look first to Silver as we go to her two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  From 07 April’s low of 27.55 to this past week’s high at 36.51 is a 42-trading-day (two months) gain of +32.5%:  impressive!  Note the Profile’s dominant volume support areas of 34.65 and 33.40-33.25:

Then second there’s Gold… good ol’ Gold!  By the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency (below left), Gold understandably lacks that of Silver; however, price’s gain across the three-month panel, too, is impressive!  A bit more daunting though is Gold’s Profile (below right) depicting notable volume resistance from 3380 up to 3399.  And we not be reminded that Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend still is in force:

All-in-all, a stunning and well-overdue super week for Silver.  And again, relative to Gold, Silver is still a bargain.  But the inexorable passage of time marches ever onward, the ensuing week’s StateSide highlights being both retail and wholesale inflation readings for May.  Consensii for the Consumer Price Index sense same or an uptick from April’s pace, whilst the Producer Price Index is expected to have swung from DEflationary back to inflationary.  We therefore graphically query:

 

Cheers!

…m…

06 June 2025 – 08:30 Central Euro Time

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Into week’s end finds Silver — having yesterday made a 13-year high — at present above its Neutral Zone for today as is the Spoo, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. And yes, despite the Spoo being higher, its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) are lower for an 11th consecutive session; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +252 points “high” over it smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is “textbook overbought” with a P/E (“live” 46.3x) basically double the historical multiple. By Market Profiles, overhead Spoo resistance shows in the 5978-5982 zone, and underlying support from 5923 to 5915. The Econ Baro awaits the data for May’s Payrolls, plus late in the session comes April’s Consumer Credit. Obviously we’ll salute Sister Silver in tomorrow’s 812th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

05 June 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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As was the case at this point yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is very light. The fallout continues in the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency such that we still anticipate (as first mentioned back on 26 May) a near-term move down into the lower 5700s/5600s, whereas presently price is 5974 and is in real-time by Market Values +291 points above the smooth valuation line. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; the latter remains in its weekly parabolic Short trend even as price has been quite resilient throughout the past three weeks. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include April’s Trade Deficit and the revisions to Q1’s Prod/CapUtil.

04 June 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones and volatility is light. In assessing the best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Euro’s 1hr MACD, and the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis the leaders are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and that for 1hr, plus Gold’s 1hr MACD and 4hr Parabolics. As regularly noted of late, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall (see Market Trends) with price yet to cave. And for the BEGOS bunch at large, all — save for the Bond — are in linreg uptrends, albeit weakening as just cited for the Spoo as well as for Oil. The Econ Baro looks to May’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

03 June 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

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Following a sharp up day for the Metals Triumvirate, all three elements are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is the Spoo; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are yet again further falling as the linreg consistency of the uptrend continues to weaken, whilst at Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is +298 points above its smooth valuation line; and by Market Profiles, the most dominantly-traded price of the past fortnight is 5915; the “live” P/E for the S&P 500 itself is 47.0x. The Econ Baro is basically at its lowest level since 22 August, and due today are April’s Factory Orders.

02 June 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

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The sole BEGOS Market at present within today’s Neutral Zone is the Bond; below same is the Spoo and the balance of the bunch are above same; session volatility is moderate, and Copper notably already has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update sees price as having been more in a stall than a fall, albeit the weekly parabolic Short trend is entering its fourth week. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency continue to drop, whilst those for the Bond on Friday confirmed moving up above their -80%, suggesting further near-term recovery for price combined with some yield softening. The Econ Baro beings a fairly busy week with May’s ISM(Mfg) Index and April’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 811 – (31 May 2025) – “Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 811th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 31 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall“

Is Gold in a weekly parabolic Short trend?  Yes.  Indeed, have four of the past six weeks been net down for Gold?  Yes.  Including this last one?  Yes.  Even with +27 points of fresh August premium just added to present price?  Yes.

Yet with August Gold settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3313, price nonetheless is +162 points above that contract’s 3151 low of two weeks ago.  To be sure, Gold just completed its third week of this relatively new parabolic Short trend; but overall, price’s fall from the 22 April All-Time High of 3510 (basis June) appears more as a stall.  Let’s start with the weekly bars of Gold’s “continuous contract” from one year ago-to-date, (the August-only contract changes as noted in the right-hand margin):

As to the depicted 2973-2844 structural support area, we feel it prudent to maintain that zone on the weekly graphic during the continuance of this Short trend, be there a more material price fall rather than merely this transitory stall.  For after all, Gold now at 3313 remains priced at a discount (-13%) to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3823.  Still, demonstrably it can take years if not decades for price to catch up.  ‘Course, the 18-month $1.5T dip in the StateSide “M2” money supply from $22.1T (18 April ’22) down to $20.6T (30 October ’23) allowed Gold to catch up a bit during that stint by some +6%.

Moreover:  given the the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $52.0T being supported by today’s “M2” liquidity level of “just” $21.9T — upon it all going wrong and the Federal Reserve being called upon to “make up the difference” — the bid for Gold shall be impressive, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the price shall skyrocket).

And indeed year-to-date, Gold has already put on quite a fireworks display, running up and away from the pack of the other BEGOS Markets as we turn to their standings by percentage change through these first five months of 2025, the Metals Triumvirate yet again populating the podium:

Note therein the S&P 500 being barely above water (+0.5%) to this point.  Currently 5912, the mighty Index is but -4.6% below Goldman Sach’s trimmed target of 6200.  But as we’ve ad nauseam gone on, sustaining a price/earnings ratio of now 46.8x with a wee yield of 1.305% versus the U.S. three-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.232% is delusionary.  (Unless the Treasury defaults, in which case the stock market would not crash; rather ‘twould simply close … until at least, again, the Fed “makes up the difference”).  Got Gold?

Next we’ve got Gold’s percentage track from one year ago-to-date along with those of highly visible precious metals equities.  Ranking from worst-to-first, they presently are Pan American Silver (PAAS) +8%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +21%, Newmont (NEM) +24%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +40%, Gold itself +42%,  and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +71%.  Some might query why the equities haven’t (with the exception of AEM) outpaced Gold’s year-over-year +42% gain; but obviously it all depends upon from what point in time the measurements start.  Regardless, the graphic does exhibit the leverage of the equities being far more oscillative than the track of Gold itself … which for those of you scoring at home emphasizes the importance of timing one’s equity trades:

Speaking of time, did you spend some pouring over the Federal Open Market Committee’s 06/07 May meeting minutes?  This again caught our eye:  “…economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace … inflation remained somewhat elevated…”  Why an eye-catcher?  Because by our math, the Economic Barometer since mid-February notably has been weakening, and inflation (as reported) cooling toward more Fed-friendly levels.

Let’s first look to the latter per our inflation summary for April via the usual six measures.  To be sure, the 12-month summations of each element are basically atop the Fed’s +2.0% target (red backgrounds).  But take note of April alone as annualized:  yes, the Consumer Price Index came in a bit warm; however the more-leading Producer Price Index was DEflationary.  Further the “Fed-favoured” gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures — again annualizing only that for April — was well-below target.  The FOMC’s next Policy Statement is scheduled for 18 June.  “To cut?  Or not to cut?”  ‘Twill be the question:

And second let’s go to the Econ Baro, for which — of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics — only four improved period-over-period.  The Gold Star goes to April’s marked increase in Personal Income, the +0.8% gain being the best since that of January 2024;  but the Pyrite Pooper is awarded to April’s Pending Home Sales, the -6.3% shrinkage the worst since the same month a year ago.  And thus here’s the Baro:

Meanwhile, it being month-end, ’tis time to go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the past 21 trading days, replete with their respective grey trendlines and “Baby Blues” of each trend’s day-to-day consistency.   Gold’s trendline has nearly rotated from negative back to positive, but again, there’s that darn weekly parabolic Short trend with which to contend.  However, more daunting in the graphic are the blue dots for the S&P 500 (SPOO futures) which are dropping by the day even as the Index struggles to gain some traction.  Oh yes, the S&P’s trend remains up, but we regard last Thursday as a “failure day” for the futures:  after having being up intra-day a very robust +1.4%, they gave it all back and then some, settling in the red, with further fallout into Friday.  So for the S&P ’tis up with the trend but down with the Blues … someone’s got to lose:

Now let’s assess the 10-Market Profiles of the precious metals.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), price is presently beneath the most heavily-traded apices in the respective panels.  And as labeled, Gold’s most dominant overhead resistor is 3321 (basis the current August “front month” contract) whilst for Silver ’tis 33.35:

So with May in the books we next look at Gold’s Structure by the month across these past 16 years.  And therein note our friend vehemently making reference toward the rightmost candle for May:  ’tis a “doji”, which in Japanese candlestick charting means price’s period was both — indeed nearly equally — higher and lower, only to close basically back where it started.  By Gold’s August contract, May’s first trade was at 3329 and last trade just -16 points lower at 3313, even as the month’s high-to-low range spanned 326 points.  So what is the analytical interpretation of a “doji”?

“That the trend is about to change, mmb.”

So ’tis said, Squire.  Thus in this “doji” case, given that Gold more broadly has been going up — by process of elimination — a trend change would be to down.  ‘Tis quite a bit of near-term conflict for Gold:  price had been flying, yet more recently stalling rather than materially falling, but the weekly parabolic Short trend remains calling.  Again, mind Gold’s aforeshown 2973-2844 support structure.  As to “The Now”, here’s Gold’s magnificent picture:

And just like that, five months of 2025 already are gone.  Or as a fine friend over in the States is wont to say, as we age:  “It goes quickly.”

But back in the late 18th century, the sixth President of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (one Benjamin Franklin) lived to be 84 years of age, far more than double the male longevity expectancy of then just 36 years.  And “quickly” or otherwise, ol’ Ben is still going in continuing to grace the face of today’s $100 Federal Reserve Note.  ‘Course in 1928, he already was on the Treasury’s $100 Bill, which as a Gold Certificate was thereto redeemable.  In those days, Gold was fairly fixed-priced at $20.67/ounce, the $100 Bill thus convertible into 137 grams of Gold…

…whereas today’s $100 fetches less than one gram, (0.85 grams or 0.03 ounces).

Therefore:  a lot can happen in less than 100 years.  Shall your potentially centenarian children have enough to survive a century?  Reprise:  “Got Gold?“

Cheers!

…m…

30 May 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Gold and Silver are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold — barring turning ’round into an up day — is en route to recording a fourth down week in the last six, albeit price hasn’t (yet?) materially succumbed to the recently new weekly parabolic Short trend; more of course in tomorrow’s 811th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a “failure day” for the Spoo, the entirety of its intra-day +82 gain being hoovered away; still, the S&P MoneyFlow has been robust across all three of our timeframes (see S&P 500/Moneyflow), and technically, the Spoo’s daily parabolics just flipped from Short-to-Long at today’s open; either way, the overvaluation of the S&P remains critical. The Econ Baro wraps the week, indeed the month, with May’s Chi PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, plus April’s Personal Income/Spending and (the BIG event) “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data. “Sell in May and go away”? On verra…

29 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo notably having already traced 103% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is now +449 points above its smooth valuation line and the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P 500 is 47.1x; by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have yet again slipped in spite of this up session. Looking at correlations for the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; too of note is the negative correlation between Gold and the Spoo. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q1 GDP.

28 May 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

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Both the Euro and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold is picking up +27 points of fresh premium as the cac volume rolls from June into that for August; too, the Bond’s cac volume is moving from June into September. Despite yesterday’s strength in the Spoo (+2.2%), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are lower still today in real-time, again suggesting a return (as previously noted) into the low 5700s/5600s, (barring the Blues getting a grip). Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our current leaders for pure swing consistency are Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 15mn EMA, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr EMA; on a 24-test basis, we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, the Euro’s 30mn MACD and Gold’s 4hr Parabolics along with its 30mn MACD. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And late in the session come the FOMC minutes from the 06/07 May meeting.

27 May 2025 – 08:30 Central Euro Time

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The two-day GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets’ session continues, now finding the Bond, Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold and Copper; session volatility is firmly moderate, the Bond notably having traced 119% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, three are sporting positive linregs: Silver, Oil and the Spoo; however with respect to the latter, as noted yesterday the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have fallen below their +80% axis, despite the current session’s up strength. Per the Spoo’s 10-day Market Profile, the overheard dominant volume resistors (price currently 5883) are 5908, 5938, and 5959. And by Market Rhythms, for the Spoo’s pure swing consistency, its current best study is the 12hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence and April’s Durable Orders.

26 May 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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The StateSide holiday elicits a two-day session (with Tuesday settle) for the GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets. Thus far we’ve both the Bond and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both the Euro and Spoo; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the very firm week (+4.8%) for the yellow metal, however reminds that the weekly parabolic trend is Short. The Spoo is off to a robust start for this week (at present +1.2%); yet as suggested in Friday’s comment, by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency have now (provisionally in real-time) fallen below the key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels near-term, perhaps into the lower 5700s/5600s by price structure; indeed the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +377 points above its smooth valuation line. 11 incoming metrics are due for the Econ Baro as the week unfolds, notably April’s “Fed-favoured” PCE come Friday.

The Gold Update: No. 810 – (24 May 2025) – “Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 810th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 24 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts“

Assuming one is a Gold Bull, this past week was as good as it gets after having commenced a new parabolic Short trend:  instead of declining, Gold posted a weekly gain of +4.8% (+152 points) in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3358, an All-Time Weekly Closing High.  Sorry Shorts.  ‘Tis why we’ve quipped ad nauseam over these many years that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.

“But mmb, last week you showed Gold targeting support down into the 2900s…”

Squire, ‘twould be sheer folly not to at least be wary of Gold testing its 2973-2844 structural support zone as herein depicted a week ago.  Recall how relentlessly up was Gold back in the year 2011 as it cleared the price of 1900 for the first time?  “Nuthin but Gold!” was the clarion cry … price subsequently dropping -45.6% into the end of 2015.  (Indeed our writing back in 2010-2011 that “Gold has gotten ahead of itself” was ubiquitous understatement).

The good news however is that today Gold is not ahead of itself.  Per the above opening Scoreboard, Gold now at 3358 is priced at a -14% discount to its Dollar debasement valuation of 3891.

Regardless, weekly parabolic Short trends are “a regular course of doing business” with Gold.  To be sure, the Shorts were brazenly boffed this past week.  But ’tis far too early to rule out testing the aforementioned 2973-2844 support area as again shown via Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, despite the Shorts having initially been turned upside down even as a second red dot appears:

Again, as stated, Gold just recorded an All-Time Weekly Closing High (3358), still shy of its All-Time Daily Closing High (3442) and All-Time Intraday High (3510).  As regards the +4.8% weekly price gain, it ranks 34th-best through the 1,274 trading weeks century-to-date.  More immediately though, the requisite price in the ensuing week to flip the Short trend back to Long is 3502 — which actually is “in range” — given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 155 points, (that being bidirectional, ‘natch).

Fundamentally, two forces fused by the FinMedia figured for Gold’s favouring across this past week: 

  • Moody’s “late to the party” StateSide credit downgrade toward the end of the prior week; and
  • Trump’s “order then suggestion” for a 50% tariff on Euro goods come 01 June, in concert with a 25% “bite of the Apple”.

In turn, so succumbed the Dollar, Bond and S&P 500, whilst the balance of our BEGOS Markets basically got the bid.  And therein, Gold has crossed back above its smooth valuation as we next see:

‘Course, from the critical “Cash Management Dept.”, with respect to price having crossed above its BEGOS valuation, we shan’t wantonly ignore Gold’s aforeshown weekly parabolic Short trend.  As cited a week ago, our sense of the Moody’s downgrade was already well  “…’priced in’ to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement…”.  And as to the Tariff Sheriff, the President still abides by “The Art of the Deal” –[Random House, ’87] in going for the whole enchilada such as to at least savour a few satisfactory bites.

“So how does that affect Gold, mmb?”

Squire, it doesn’t preclude Gold from going straight up; but likely it shan’t given the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend is only two weeks thus far in duration.  Indeed since the year 2001, Gold has recorded one weekly Short trend of only two weeks, and rightly so:  just prior to COVID, Gold embarked on a weekly Short trend, only to be dramatically catapulted upward upon the announcement of the closure of the world, price then leaping +8.6% for the following week.  In other words, in a week’s time from today, we’d expect such Gold trend still to be Short.  But how lovely ‘twould be if we are wrong.

As to the Economic Barometer, ’tis on balance been going wrong since 19 February (67 trading days ago).  Of the 153 metrics having subsequently entered the Baro, only 60 of them (39%) have improved period-over-period:  “…we’re going the wrong way…” –[Steve Martin, ‘Planes, Trains and Automobiles’, Paramount, ’87].

So come 18 June, does the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote to nudge its Bank’s Funds Rate down a notch?  Let’s first see what the Bureau of Economic Analysis records for April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures next Friday; such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge was flat for March.  Here’s the Baro:

But then there’s the “Big Beautiful Bill” … “That’ll be a thrill.”  –[Thelma Ritter, ‘Boeing Boeing’, Paramount, ’65].  (Stayed tuned to your local affiliate for breaking news).

Meanwhile, breaking back up since 15 May is our Gold, albeit within the broader context of the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend, (which again we ‘spect shan’t just yet meet its end).  Still, in turning to the dual-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, this past week’s group of “Baby Blues” rose as their foundational regression trend rotated toward positive; such becomes confirmed upon their eclipsing up through the 0% axis, (which you can follow daily at the website).  As for the Profile, the low 3300s appear initially supportive, followed by the dominant trading volume price of 3235:

Next we’ve the like graphic for Silver, her “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (below left) having just pierced above their 0% axis, whilst her volume support in the Profile (below right) ranges from the mid-33s down into the mid-32s.  As to the Gold/Silver ratio now 99.8x, priced to the evolving average (from 2001-to-date) of 69.0x would see Silver +45% higher at 48.64 (vs. her present 33.64 level).  ‘Course by now, you’ve already really “Got Silver!” right?  (Upon the 4 August 1964 release of the depicted Kinks hit, the price of Sister Silver was $1.29/oz.  Thus today, she’s higher by +2,508% … just in case you’re scoring at home):

So in a nugget:  Gold’s daily trend is up within a weekly trend that is down.  And during the ensuing holiday-shortened trading week come 11 metrics for the Econ Baro, included as noted “Fed-favoured” inflation data per the PCE.  Where shall Gold be, let alone the S&P?  To speak fundamentally, the former remains undervalued whilst the latter severely overvalued.  (So much for the ol’ “EMH” Efficient Market Hypothesis).  For today, less yield (S&P 1.321%) is better than more yield (T-Bill 4.230%).  “But Gold is yield-less!” they say.  And yet ‘from 2001, ’tis outperformed the S&P (including dividends) by nearly three times!  Gold wins.

Speaking of sports, tomorrow (Sunday) is race day here.  Hat-tip Steinmetz Diamonds:  how about a Gold, diamond-encrusted F1 car?

Whereas in racing ’tis best not to venture beyond the edge of adhesion, go for the Gold with all due reason!

Cheers!

…m…

23 May 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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At present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, while below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold — currently in the first week of its fresh parabolic Short trend — had seen its daily parabolics flip to Short effective 01 May: yesterday that study reversed to Long; obviously the broader measure (weekly) carries more price swing import, and we’ll of course further assess the situation in tomorrow’s 810th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo’s daily MACD appears poised to make a negative crossover into early next week; (note the five-hour Spoo trading halt during Monday’s StateSide observance of Memorial Day); too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are curling over such that a breach of the +80% axis looks to occur early in the new week. And the Econ Baro wraps its own week today with April’s New Home Sales.

22 May 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. Topping Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency we’ve (on a 10-test basis) both the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr Price Oscillator and 1hr EMA (the Yen now higher for an eighth consecutive day), along with Gold’s 6hr MACD and the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics (which flipped to Short yesterday at 12:00 CET; too in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +387 points above its smooth valuation line); plus (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, Copper’s 4hr Parabolics along with Gold’s 4hr Parabolics, and the Bond’s 1hr Price Oscillator. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are Existing Home Sales for April.

21 May 2025 – 08:22 Central Euro Time

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Gold, despite its now being in a weekly parabolic Short trend, nonetheless is having a very firm week thus far, currently +108 points from last Friday’s settle; the yellow metal for today is at present above its Neutral Zone, as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil; below same are both the Bond and Spoo. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, Oil itself having already traded 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The non-BEGOS Yen is rising for a seventh consecutive day, a streak which has occurred but once this decade-to-date, (following which it swiftly took a -3% tumble in early December 2022). Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold. And the quiet week continues for the Econ Baro, again with no metrics due today.

20 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The “life-cycle” of the Moody’s StateSide debt downgrade was short-lived, the S&P 500 concluding yesterday in the black: the Index is now 16 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” and the Spoo in real-time +497 points above its smooth valuation line, even as at present the Spoo along with Gold and Copper are below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Trends, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have provisionally curled up above their -80% axis; confirmation by settle would be indicative of still higher Euro levels near-term, although structurally there does not appear to be that much room to move materially up: currently 1.1270, there is Market Profile resistance in the 1.1370 to 1.1390 zone. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, which nonetheless has taken a bit of a hit of late.

19 May 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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The Bond, Oil and Spoo are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver; BEGOS Market’s volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Long-to-Short, with 2973-2844 as a support zone reasonably to be tested. The “late to the party” Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit is nonetheless getting the safe havens the bid to begin the week; regardless, the Dollar Index (albeit -0.5% today) still hovers above the 100 handle. Support for the Spoo by its 10-day Market Profile initially shows at 5909, followed by 5864. And ’tis a very quiet week for the Econ Baro with just four metrics due, beginning today with April’s Leading (i.e. “lagging) Indicators, which by the “leading” Baro we already “know” ought be negative.

The Gold Update: No. 809 – (17 May 2025) – “As Expected, Gold Rejected”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 809th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 17 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“As Expected, Gold Rejected“

Per our post on ‘X’ (@deMeadvillePro) this past Monday, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short, and was so confirmed by the week’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 3205, a full -305 points (-8.7%) below price’s All-Time High of 3510 set this past 22 April, a mere 18 trading days ago.

‘Course —  as you regular readers know — despite all the otherwise bullish Gold hysteria out there — we “alone” (‘twould seem) have been anticipating through these past two weeks such Long trend coming to its end given one of the world’s oldest sciences which we dutifully employ:  math, (a tool sadly lost on today’s financial “experts”).

Thus, this begs we straightaway go to Gold’s Long trend end via the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the encircled red dot heralding the start of the new Short trend:

 

This latest Long trend lasted 16 weeks, (which ties for 13th in duration since the year 2001).  But more importantly as to “How low is low?”, as above shown we’ve a structural support zone spanning from 2973 down to 2844, the midpoint of which (2908) is -297 points below today’s 3205 level, i.e. some -9% lower.

Indeed, across Gold’s 52 previous parabolic Short trends century-to-date, the average price adversity is -7.8%:  thus a -9% decline from here wouldn’t be that untoward; (’tis not a prognostication, rather an “ought not be surprising” consideration).  To be sure, that’s all technically talking.  Whereas, in fundamentally forecasting, price broadly still has significant upside in its balance per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

“And maybe it goes straight back up ’cause Moody’s just downgraded U.S. credit, mmb!”

They’ve just figured that out now, Squire?  Fitch so did two years ago, (let alone Standard & Poor’s away back in 2011, following which the price of Gold fell for four years!)  ‘Tis on occasion quipped that “The Fed is behind the curve”; Moody’s apparently can’t even find the curve.

Moreover:  you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right ’round the world knows that were U.S. debt graded as that for a publicly-held company, today’s “multiple As” might more realistically be a “single “B”, if not down in the “Cs”.  Ah, but StateSide “full faith and credit” mitigates any notion of (heaven forbid) “junk”.  At least so far.

Regardless, debt is a key driver of currency debasement (i.e. more is printed — as more and more is needed — to service more debt).  Thus we believe current credit grades — and to an extent future downgrades  — are to an extent already “priced in” to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement, which again per the Scoreboard now broadly values the yellow metal at 3887, some +21% above the present 3205 level.

As to our recent expecting of Gold’s rejecting, we’ve merely been watching the math via the website’s near-term BEGOS valuation for Gold.  Back on 21 April during this most recent upside deviation, Gold was priced some +440 points above such valuation.  Yet we herein remained ever-remindful that price inevitably reverts to its mean (in this case the BEGOS derived valuation, which itself rightly is rising).  And indeed such means reversion was completed per this past Wednesday’s settle as we next see:

“But crossing under that line also is another down signal, right mmb?”

Absolutely, Squire, that is the rule of thumb for each of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500)  But specific to our yellow metal as we always caution:  “Shorting Gold is a BAD idea!”  Further by the above graphic, the downside penetrations from a year ago-to-date have not garnered much follow-through. Or as a StateSide friend and trading colleague used to say:  “They went Short Gold, but they ain’t around anymore.”  Still with the weekly parabolic trend having now flipped to Short, lower prices at least for a bit make sense through here.

Speaking too of lower, so is the recent track of the Economic Barometer.  The past week’s data barrage of 19 incoming metrics recorded just seven that improved period-over-period.  Notably therein, April’s wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index was clearly DEflationary per both its headline and core readings.  But hardly was that the case for retail inflation (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there directly affects you) as the pace of the Consumer Price Index quickened after having been flat for March.

So exactly what is the data-compiling Department of Labor Statistics telling us?  That by the CPI the cost of April living rose, but that by the more leading PPI the States are experiencing cheaper living now in May?  Or are we simply stagflating away?  Is your employer thus poised to raise your pay?  But they’re not doing as much business, they say?  Either way, here’s the Baro from a year ago through today:

And duly note therein the quip about the Baro once having led the S&P 500, as reliably it did for some 22 years from inception in 1998 to 2020.  But then:  add $7T “for the effects of COVID” to the StateSide money supply (“M2” basis), it all fungibly ending up in the S&P, which in turn has doubled without the requisite earnings support, and thus our “live” price/earnings ratio has skyrocketed from its developmental level back in 2013 of 25.4x to today’s quite real — but ridiculous — 46.3x.  ‘Twould seem nobody wants triple the annualized yield afforded by the U.S. Three-Month T-Bill (4.237%) because the S&P’s yield of 1.303% is deemed better (per this Investing Age of Stoopid).  ‘Course, stocks never go down, so it all makes sense.

Fortunately, far more sensible is precious metals ownership.  Let’s assess this century-to-date:  the S&P 500 has gone from 1320 to now 5958 for a pre-dividend gain of +351%; add ’em in and the total return is in the +415% neighbourhood, so pretty good.  But then there’s terribly lagging Silver (vis-à-vis Gold) nonetheless +599% across the same stint.  So there ya go.  Oh yes, and Gold itself?  +1,071%.  (Editor’s Note:  Bitcoin began basically at $0, so such return-to-date is immeasurably infinite, just in case you’re scoring at home).

Again however per our missive’s title, “As Expected, Gold Rejected”, we next view our two-panel graphic featuring Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right.  Our baby blue dots of trend consistency as ever provide shining guidance.  For as therein stated in black and blue:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” as further affirmed by Sister Silver.  ‘Tis why we turned off CNBS et alia a million years ago.  Here you go:

Understand, naturally, that directionally brilliant as are the “Baby Blues”, per the deMeadville home page:  “…there is no ‘holy grail’ in this business…”, meaning that cash management is everything.  And helpful to that end are the website’s 10-day Market Profiles as next shown below for both Gold (at left) and Silver (at right).  The labeled apices are those prices featuring the dominant levels of volume; as such, they better determine the key areas of price’s support and resistance, as updated daily:

To sum it all up as Gold works down, we wrap with the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3887
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3510
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3442 (06 May 2025)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3287
Trading Resistance:  notable Profile apices 3239 / 3322 / 3345 / 3394
Gold Currently:  3205, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  90 points)
Trading Support:  by the Profile 3186
10-Session directional range:  down to 3125 (from 3444) = -319 points or -9.3%
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2649 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

So yes as expected, Gold is getting rejected.  But be thee not dejected!  For far higher levels remain projected!

Cheers!

  …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

 

16 May 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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Into week’s end we’ve at present the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Of note by Market Ranges, Gold’s EDTR is 89 points (vs. 35 a year ago) whilst that for Silver is 0.88 points (not that far from 0.75 points a year ago); the Gold/Silver ratio is 99.0x (vs. the century-to-date average of 69.0x); more on it all in tomorrow’s 809th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Meanwhile for the S&P 500, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 45.8x and the yield 1.313% vs. the U.S. T-Bill’s risk-free annualized yield of 4.258%. The Econ Baro looks to these incoming metrics in concluding the week: April’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices, along with May’s UofM Sentiment Survey. Today wraps up Q1 Earnings Season for 2025, which for year-over-year quarterly improvement specific to S&P 500 constituents has essentially been average.

15 May 2025 – 08:25 Central Euro Time

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Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. Gold confirmed a negative crossing of its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): this is of course a Short signal, albeit as we regularly quip “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”; still, a run from here (3137) down to 3000 wouldn’t seen untoward, price having established a plateau there back in February. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from June into that for July. And the Econ Baro is poised to take in 11 metrics today, amongst which are May’s NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, along with April’s Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, plus March’s Business Inventories.

14 May 2025 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is quite light. Gold has nearly closed the long-running deviation above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): in real-time, price is now just +10 points over the line, after having been as much (on a closing basis) as +440 points “high” back on 21 April; (and as previously noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally has flipped from Long-to-Short). Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is currently the 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis the 4hr parabolics. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a barrage featuring 16 incoming metrics from tomorrow into Friday; of note per yesterday’s CPI data, inflation’s pace increased during April.

13 May 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

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As posted yesterday on ‘X’, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short; barring Gold improbably making an All-Time High this week (above 3510), the new Short trend shall confirm upon Friday’s settle. At present, both Gold and Silver, along with the Euro and Swiss Franc are above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is light. Yesterday’s gap-up open for the S&P 500 was by points the largest in its 68-year history; the Index through the past 11 days is “textbook overbought” and the Spoo (in real-time) is +384 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the Index is 44.3x. The Econ Baro looks to the first report of April’s inflation via the CPI.

12 May 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present within its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update gives evidence to the yellow metal’s great rally potentially having run out of puff: purported progress of tariff resolution issues is drawing money from the safe havens into equities and the Dollar. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, the Spoo as adjusted for fair value places the Index +1.5%, (and the “live” P/E at 43.6x); the Spoo in real-time is +297 points above its smooth valuation line, see Market Values). The Econ Baro begins it busy week of 19 incoming metrics with April’s Treasury Budget due late in the session. And this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season.

The Gold Update: No. 808 – (10 May 2025) – “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 808th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)“

Our missive’s title is ever so suitable for parsing… So let’s go!

Part Un:  “Gold Regains Ground” for indeed it did in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3329 for a net weekly rise of +82 points (+2.5%).  Heaven forbid price instead have suffered a third consecutive down week!  Why, that hasn’t happened since those ending the 1st, 8th and 15th of November last year!

Part Deux:  “(albeit Stumbles Around…)” for after reaching as high as 3448 on Wednesday — up +201 points (+6.2%) into mid-week — selling then ensued such as to settle Gold at the noted 3329, which all-in-all is now -181 points (-5.2%) below the All-Time High of 3510 recorded back on 22 April.

“And it made a record down move for an up week, right mmb?”

Spot on, Squire.  Thus far in this 21st century-to-date there have been 1,271 trading weeks of which 708 (56%) have settled net up for Gold.  And the record to which Squire refers is based specifically on points lost from the intra-week high to the end-of-week settle:  Gold went down -119 points from Wednesday’s high in nonetheless finishing net up for the week.  More realistically on a percentage basis, the high-to-settle drop of -3.5% still ranks 12th-worst for an up week so far this century, and by those -119 points, the worst for an up week since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71.

Thus in reprising our entitled query of a week ago:  “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?” we sense that the up week’s record setting high-to-settle points loss sensibly suggests that Gold has — for the present — run out of puff.  Further as we turn to Gold’s valuation per our proprietary BEGOS Markets measuring, price today remains +157 points “high” above the smooth line as shown here:

Moreover, Gold also is at this century’s record for the number of consecutive trading days in having settled above said smooth valuation line:  86, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is better than four months).  The previous record of 75 trading days was set in both 2024 and 2019.  So to say this great Gold rally has become “a bit long in the tooth” arguably is reasonable, despite it being magnificent that Gold has been garnering long-overdue notice.

Still, specific to this past intra-week’s points plunge, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  And as therein stated, the red portion of the rightmost bar is the largest points drop for any up week in Gold’s history; (yes the intra-week drop two weeks prior was worse, but ’twas a net down week).  As for the still ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend, ‘twould come to an end should 3243 be eclipsed (“just” -86 points from here) in the new week:

Too, in looking at Gold’s settles by the day across some 15 years, price has gotten quite far afield from its traditionally “guardian” 300-day moving average, such deviation at present being +699 points above the next graphic’s blue line.  But by percentage distance, price is “only” +26.6% above that average; the record is +47.4% exactly 19 years ago on 11 May 2006, Gold then priced at 722, from which by mid-year it fell -24%.  Yes, Virginia, price retreats do happen, (oft when all around are bullish):

As to the lowlight of last week, the Federal Reserve did its present posture preserve.  For in line with consensus, the Open Market Committee maintained its Bank’s Funds Rate in the 4.25%-to-4.50% target range.  But for those of you who diligently follow the deMeadville website and The Gold Update, you must have been rather startled by what the Fed said, as culled from the opening paragraph of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement that we’ve embedded below in the Econ Baro:

“Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace”?  Look above at the Baro’s blue line since February.  And as rightly forecast by the Fed’s own Sixth District Atlanta branch, we already knew back on 30 April the initial read of annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product was negative.

“Inflation remains somewhat elevated“?  Recall from last week’s missive the summary table of March’s inflation paces?  Not only were they disinflationary, but some were DEflationary!  Perhaps the Fed sees March as a “one off”:  to be sure, 12-month inflation through March still averaged +2.6%, effectively in excess of the Fed’s desired +2.0% target.  Let’s see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has in the coming week for April’s Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday):  consensii expect a pickup in inflation’s pace.

Meanwhile, losing upside pace is Gold.  Clearly this is evident in the left-hand panel below of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date.  Whilst the baby blues dots are still above their 0% axis — indicative that price’s trend remains up — their contrarily being in descent denotes the consistency of the uptrend as breaking down.  As for Gold’s 10-day Market Profile in the right-hand panel, the “line in the sand” price to hold is 3322:

Silver’s picture is quite similar.  Her trend (on the left) is positive, but like that for Gold is losing consistency as her “Baby Blues” too have begun to fold.  And as to her 10-Day Market Profile (on the right), price at present (32.88) is not too far from her most volume-dominant supporter at 32.60.  ‘Course, relative to Gold, Sweet Sister Silver remains considerably cheap per the Gold/Silver ratio now 101.3x versus the century-to-date average of just 69.0x:

In sum, its emotive hype aside, we still anticipate a bit lower Gold near-term; (indeed a most-valued colleague here suggested yesterday — over a delightful rosé — that 2400 is in the offing).  That’s a bit out of range (-24%) from our perspective; however, Gold obviously has corrected by at least such percentage, notably during 2006-to-2008, certainly so post-2011’s All-Time High through 2015, as well as during 2019-to-2020.  ‘Tis merely what the world’s major liquid financial markets on occasion do.

Next week also brings the calendar conclusion to Q1 Earnings Season, which to this point for the S&P 500 constituents is “average” for year-over-year quarterly improvement.  ‘Course as you saw earlier in the Economic Barometer, the S&P 500’s price/earning ratio is an inane 43.0x.  Thus earnings are on balance improving, but their overall level remains far too low to continue supporting price; (how’s that 1.359% annualized dividend yield workin’ out for ya?)

And specific to the Econ Baro, a huge load of 19 metrics are scheduled for the ensuing week.  Shall the Baro live up to the Fed’s “solid pace” perception of the economy?  As ever, we’ll mind the math…

…whilst you, rather than stumble around,  mind — indeed mine — your Gold and Silver fine!

Cheers!

…m…

09 May 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Into week’s end we’ve at present Gold above its Neutral Zone for today and Copper below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. At Market Trends, our “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for all eight BEGOS components, albeit the only two currently with actual declining trends are the Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values for the five primary entities in real-time time: the Bond is 2^09 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro just 0.001 points “high”, Gold +155 points “high”, Oil -4.77 points “low” and the Spoo +220 points “high”. The S&P 500 is now textbook overbought through the past nine trading days. With one week still to run for Q1 Earnings Season, 427 S&P 500 constituents have reported of which 66% (282) have beaten their EPS of their like quarter a year ago. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro, it having concluded its week yesterday. Tomorrow brings our 808th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

08 May 2025 – 08:20 Central Euro Time

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The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Amongst correlations of the five primary BEGOS components, that for Gold is notably positive with the Euro, however negatively so with the Spoo. Oil’s 12hr MACD embarked on a flip from Short-to-Long effective yesterday at12:00 (CET): year-to-date this has been a very respectable Market Rhythm, and in real-time by Market Values, Oil is -6.92 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro rounds out its week today, incoming metrics including March’s Wholesale Inventories and Q1’s initial read of Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

07 May 2025 – 08:26 Central Euro Time

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The Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets to this hour continues as moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms at those currently displaying the best pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics as well as its 4hr Moneyflow, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis again the same for the Yen, along with Gold’s 2hr Parabolics. At Market Magnets, both the Euro and Silver yesterday confirmed positive crossings of price above Magnet, suggestive of higher levels near-term. Late in the session, the Econ Baro looks to March’s Consumer Credit, preceded an hour earlier by the week’s highlight of the FOMC’s Policy Statement, the consensus for which is no change in the Bank’s Funds rate.

06 May 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is yet again moderate to this point of the session. Gold has gained some +130 points since our querying (at 3247) about its great run being done: presently 3371, price is “only” -139 points below the 3510 All-Time High; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most dominant volume support price is 3324; and the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is its 6hr MACD, in which hindsight vacuum $57k/cac has been generated since late February, and which swung from Short to Long yesterday at 12:00 (CET). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Trade Deficit.

05 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Gold Update queries as to the yellow metal’s great run being done (for now): price is within a day’s range of flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short (effective 3209); Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points.; and by Market Values (in real-time) Gold remains +164 points above its smooth valuation line. Q4 Earnings Season still has some two weeks to run: with 337 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 220 have bettered their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; such 65% rate of improvement is a bit below the typical 66% pace. The Econ Baro begins a light week with April’s ISM(Apr) Index. And Wednesday brings the FOMC’s next policy statement for which consensus sees no change in.

The Gold Update: No. 807 – (03 May 2025) – “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 807th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?“

Apropos of this missive’s title — and with the year’s first quadrimester (plus two May trading days) already in the books — let’s start with another of our infamous Gold Quizzes.  Ready?

In settling yesterday, (Friday) at 3247, Gold completed its 18th trading week of the year with a net weekly loss — as just was the case in the 17th week!  Thus, prior to this:

  • When was the last time Gold recorded two consecutive down weeks?

“Oh that one’s easy, mmb!  Not since last year!”

My dear Squire, such quiz is directed toward our highly-valued audience, rather than be front-run in-house.  Still, in this instance,  “A Man for All Seasons” –[Columbia, ’66], is not Sir Thomas More, but indeed Sir Squire.  Let’s simply add some specificity to his statement:

Through these 18 weeks of 2025, Gold has recorded but four that were net down.  However, three of those down weeks are amongst the past five, even within which price has made a weekly “higher-high” four times.  And to answer the quiz:  Gold’s last two consecutive down weeks were the last two weeks of 2024.

To be sure, in 2025, Gold has had a great run … but is it finally done?  By our opening Gold Scoreboard, Gold today at 3247 is -16% below its Dollar debasement value of 3879.  Still, price — with only a third of this year having passed — has already traced 117% of its expected yearly trading range.  Yet hardly ought that be surprising given Gold’s great breakout.  But as you regular readers well know, the year’s high (thus far?) at 3510 elicited an ever-so extensive stretch above our BEGOS Markets’ valuation for Gold.  And it remains the case — even as price is reverting to said valuation — that Gold remains relatively +158 points “high” (at 3247) to such reversion destination (at 3029).  Yet clearly that valuation itself is rightly rising each day:

Bespoke of the BEGOS Markets, Gold firmly finds itself at the top of the table as we turn to the Standings year-to-date.  And has been the case throughout, all three podium positions comprise our Metals Triumvirate.  But therein note Silver remaining woefully undervalued relative to Gold.  In 2025, Gold so far is +23.0% and Copper +16.8%:  so ought Silver at least be between those two (given the tug of war over her being both a precious metal as well as one that is industrial) rather than “only” +9.9%?  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is again 100.9x relative to its century-to-date evolving average of now 69.0x.  By our expertise to reprise, priced to said ratio today places Silver (instead of at her current 32.18 level) +46% higher at 47.09.  Might Silver thus be “the easiest Long trade” for the foreseeable future?  We eloquently answer:  “Well DUH!”

Specific to Gold and its three down weeks in the last five, let’s go to the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date.  We’ve highlighted in red all four down weeks recorded so far in 2025.  Moreover, note the rightmost parabolic Long trend blue dot:  should Gold break below 3209 in the ensuing week, such trend shall flip to Short.  Obviously such flip price is well within range (just -38 points below here) given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is presently 83 points, let alone the “expected weekly trading range” now a whopping 140 points(!)  The Golden wave of euphoria has Long been waving; but from here it may be Short-lived, barring a basically “straight-up” week in the offing; else Gold’s great run — at least for the present — may well be done:

Naturally it being month-end and two trading days into May, ’tis time to bring up the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with several tip-tier precious metal equities.  From least-to-most we below see Newmont (NEM) +27%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) +28%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Gold itself +39%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +42%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%.  (Were you in the S&P 500 from a year ago, your dividend-inclusive gain is +15% … even as you’re behind this year … oh dear):

Further for the precious metals, here next are the 10-day Market Profliles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  With present prices for the yellow and white metals all but at the bottom of their respective Profiles, both have taken a bit of a beat-down.  Either way, as crooned the darling duo Sonny & Cher back in ’67, “The beat goes on…”:

Although having turned lower near-term, the primary driving source for the on-balance rise in the precious metals — certainly century-to-date — and arguably (albeit erratically) so through the last three decades of the 20th century, is of course currency debasement, the eminent element therein being inflation.  Simply stated for those of you scoring at home, the more there is of something (Dollars), the less each is worth, and thus the more that must be tendered in monetary transactions; (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is why your Big Macs cost so much).  As through the month of March, we’ve now all the data for our inflation summary as follows:

So you know where this is going given the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee issues their next Policy Statement come Wednesday (07 May).  By the above summary’s 12-Month Summation column, every metric is above the Fed’s desired inflation pace of +2.0%.  But annualizing March’s data alone — on average — is DEflationary!  How reasonable is that for rate relief?  After all, your cost of living went down in March, non?

 “My usual stuff actually cost more, mmb…”

Oh say it ain’t so, Squire.  But to his point, we are more frequently seeing the “S” word stagflation in the FinMedia mix.  Thus is the economy retreating even as prices “in reality” are rising?  Hat-tip the Atlanta Fed which predicted negative Q1 Gross Domestic Product, the initial reading for which came in at an annualized -0.3% — yet the chain deflator was a very inflative +3.7%!  Stagflation indeed!

As for the Economic Barometer, of the 18 incoming metrics this past week, barely four improved period-over-period, including March’s Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales and Factory Orders.  But at least the stock market went up, Bloomy referring to the rise as “Epic”; (obviously they need a semester in Market Mathematics).  Here’s the Baro:

Regardless, ‘twould appear Wall Street sees inflation as having ceased, and per CNBC, “…stocks claw back tariff losses…” you see.  Thus:  let the Fed cut sans impunity, if you please!  What do the BEGOS Markets see?  Let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across their past 21 trading days (one month) with their respective grey trendlines and our famous “Baby Blues” of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  And as the Dollar returns to getting a bit of a bid, note the blue dots rolling over to the downside for the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold.  All together now: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:

And of course since our prior “month-end” missive (29 March), Gold has proceeded to blow through our forecast high for this year of 3262 en route to having reached 3510!  Here by the monthly candles is Gold’s structural journey these past 16 years:

In closing, let’s review specific to the S&P 500 that which we anticipated back in our 05 April missive:  a major negative crossover for the Index’s “moving average convergence divergence” (“MACD”).  And ’twas just confirmed as the S&P closed out April.  The last time the Index recorded such a high-level negative MACD crossover was at the conclusion of February in 2022, after which into October the S&P accumulated an all-in decline of -1,038 points (-23%).  Ready?

 “But mmb, in B-school they said stocks are a hedge against inflation, just like gold, eh?“

True enough, Squire.  However, we were also taught (to yet again reprise Jerome B. Cohen):  “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”  Today, ridiculously beyond rationality, the “live” (i.e. trailing 12-months) p/e for the S&P settled the week yesterday at 43.9x(!)  In other words:  with stock prices unsupported by earnings, GDP shrinking, the economy showing signs of stagflation, and a liquid money supply that can only cover 44% of the “money” currently invested in the S&P 500, ’tis not the time to say to stocks “Buy-Buy!”, but rather “Bye-Bye!”

As for the slipping precious metals, think “Dip-Buy!”

Cheers!

…m…

02 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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Save for the Bond which at present is inside its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets are above same; session volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as essentially on its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.0393 points “high”, Gold as +180 points “high”, Oil as -6.56 points “low” and the Spoo as +160 points “high”. The S&P 500 itself week-to-date remains “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” p/e is 43.0x; on the S&P’s monthly chart, its MACD confirmed a negative crossing as May got underway: the last such negative crossover occurred in April 2022 leading to a more than -1,000 points (-14.5%) decline into November. ‘Tis April’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro, along with March’s Factory Orders.

01 May 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Copper, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Indeed, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency confirmed crossing below the +80%; we’re anticipating the low 1.12s from here, perhaps even the upper 1.11s as the Dollar is showing a bit of resilience with a positive MACD swing on the Buck’s daily chart. Gold continues to work toward closing the gap down to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price in real-time however still +167 points “high”. For correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the current best is positive between Gold and the Euro. And included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s ISM(Mfg) Index and March’s Construction Spending.

30 April 2025 – 08:12 Central Euro Time

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The year’s first quadrimester concludes with significant input for the Econ Baro: nine metrics come due, amongst which are April’s ADP Employment data and the Chi PMI, March’s “Fed-favoured” PCE report along with Personal Income/Spending and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q1’s GDP along with the Employment Cost Index. Ahead of it all at present we’ve Copper as the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone, and session volatility is very light, again within the context of EDTRs (see Market Ranges) having widened considerably this month. At Market Trends, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in real-time moving below their key +80% axis such that we look for lower prices near-term; too by Market Values, the Euro is (in real-time) +0.046 points above its smooth valuation line; a run from here in the 1.14s down into the 1.12s wouldn’t be untoward over the ensuing days/week or two.

29 April 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 (5529) has returned to being “textbook overbought” for the first time since 20 February (then 6118); indeed the Spoo — which had been below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for some two months — has finally (in real-time) reverted back up to it such that still higher price levels ought be expected; however, the S&P’s “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is at this moment an ever so expensive 42.5x, and the yield a wee 1.394% vs. the 3-month US T-Bill’s 4.193% annualized. Meanwhile Gold, by its smooth valuation line remains excessively “high”, in real-time +278 points above said line. The Econ Baro gets its week going today with April’s Consumer Confidence.

28 April 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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At present, the Swiss Franc plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to begin the week is mostly light. The Gold Update continues to cite price’s near-term over-valuation; however with Gold down today, by Market Values, price — which on a closing basis had been as much as +440 “high” above its smooth valuation line — is now (in real-time) +262 points “high” above completing reversion to said “mean”; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant resistor is 3343, the like supporter being 3238; and Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is now 92 points. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro: whilst nothing is due for today, the rest of the week has 18 incoming scheduled metrics, including on Wednesday the “Fed-favoured” PCE Index for March’s inflation.

The Gold Update: No. 806 – (26 April 2025) – “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 806th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock“

Remember this ol’ tagline from the ’70s?  “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen!”

Fast-forward to today and ’tis “When Goldman talks, people pile on!”  For the Morgans et alia, too, the same holds true.

Far be it from The Big Houses to facilitate mathematical justification.  Rather:

  • Just announce “Here comes 4000 Gold, for recession shall unfold!”;
  • Then reprise Tag Team from ’93 with “Whoomp! (There It Is)”; 
  • And in mere hours Gold morphs into a straight up meme stock as if ’twere GameStop.

In that same critical vein, this past week a fine friend and valued colleague shared these words from Mark Clubb, Executive Chairman at the wealth/asset management financial services firm TEAM PLC:  “…there is undoubtedly too much noise in financial advice today … dressed up as wisdom and too many professionals repeating slogans instead of offering substance…”  We agree.

Regardless:  if “4000 Gold!” is the call, let’s just immediately put price there.  “We don’t need no stinkin’ analysis!”

For more perspective we’ve this.  Across the 644 months which have passed since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71 — with still three trading days left in this April’s balance — Gold has already set the record for its largest intra-month low-to-high points-gain in history:  +540!

Impressive as well on a percentage basis, the +18.2% intra-month gain ranks 15th-best since said nixing.  As for the 14 other even-better intra-month gains, Gold on average then fell by -11.7% within three months, suggesting that sub-3000 from here is very realistic moving forward.  ‘Tis just the way Gold has traded — at least historically — once the euphoria wears off.

Still, here’s a real show-stopper:  from January’s low just three months ago (2625), Gold has come to within 115 points of having gained $1,000/oz!  Cue the late great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

‘Course, there’s still the party-pooper fly in the ointment — for just as do meme stocks — following Gold’s latest All-Time High of 3510 recorded this past Tuesday, price come Wednesday fell as much as -239 points (-6.8%) to 3271 toward settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3330.  No, Gold did not reach down to the 3237 Market Profile support level as prognosticated a week ago; but by our near-term technical BEGOS Markets Value measure, price remains +302 points too “high”:

And as it has always done, we anticipate Gold (3330) sorting itself out with respect to the above chart’s BEGOS valuation (3028), such rising smooth line itself this past week having averaged a daily gain of +8 points.

More importantly of course, by the opening Gold Scoreboard, the yellow metal’s supply-adjusted Dollar debasement value (3875) remains the broad-term goal.  And therein note:  the liquid StateSide money supply (“M2” basis) just set its own record high, now $22,149,197,787,444.50, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there reads as “Twenty-two trillion one hundred forty-nine billion one hundred ninety-seven million seven hundred eighty-seven thousand four hundred forty-four dollars and fifty cents”).

Indeed, every Lincoln counts…

…and unfortunately, hardly is there enough liquidity to cover the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $48.7T.  Thus:  at least halve the current “live” price/earnings ratio (42.3x) to avoid the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.

“But then it already will have crashed, mmb…” 

Squire’s brevity of brilliance oft qualifies as the last word.  Yet there’s hope:  for if the effect of “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) positively plays out such that the U.S. makes its own stuff and earnings double, then also avoided is the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash.  But we digress…

To progress back to Gold, its continuous futures contract volume these past five days (1,765,217) was the most since the COVID-crippling week ending 14 August 2020, (soon after price had eclipsed 2000 for the first time).

Now this year-to-date, 17 trading weeks already are in the books with just three of them having been down.  But:  in accordance with the aforeshown Market Value graphic of Gold being +302 points “high”, two of the past four weeks have been down.  So is it finally being perceived that — near-term — Gold perhaps has gone “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A. ’77]?  Here are the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the three downers during 2025 in red:

Moreover, in walking to coffee this morning we encountered an esteemed gentleman who actively trades the precious metals futures, notably so Silver, which has been in part excluded from Gold’s rally.  We exclaimed:  “Wow, the Gold/Silver ratio this week reached 107x!” to which he replied “Yes, but it is Gold that has gone way too far too fast!”  So for those of you scoring at home, just a little perspective from the quiet shores of our wee Mediterranean fishing village.

Still (as noted at the foot of the above graphic), the Gold/Silver ratio settled the week at 100.9x.  ‘Tis not nearly the highest reading century-to-date (having reached 124.2x on 18 March 2020 in the COVID chaos); all-in, the ratio’s average since 2001 is 68.9x.  Silver priced today to that average — rather than being the current 33.02 — would instead be +46% higher at 48.31, ever so near the white metal’s own All-Time High of 49.82 away back now 14 full years ago on 25 April 2011.

Indeed as we go to Gold’s two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis queried “Can’t Silver keep up?”  Yet, note the baby blue dots of trend consistency are at least momentarily running out of puff without having reached up to the key +80% level:  that suggests lower prices are nigh.  And by the Profile we can see the magnitude of Gold’s rapid pullback from this latest 3510 All-Time High:

With the like graphic for Silver, all she can say is “I’m so left out.”  Even though she’s actually been in a rally mode these last three weeks, on a month-to-date closing basis Silver is net down -5.0% from 34.77 to 33.02, whereas Gold is net up +5.5% from 3157 to 3330.  We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”  Of course, blame it on Cousin Copper whose having dragged Silver into mischievous deeds finds the red metal down -4.1% month-to-date.  That’s our Sweet Sister Silver as — given Gold and Copper — she’s “Torn Between Two Lovers” –[Mary MacGregor, ’76]:

Toward wrapping it up for this week, the StateSide economy has gone to sleep, even as “TT” shall it eventually tweak, if as we’re so led to believe.

Similar to what we’d seen the prior week, this past one brought but six metrics into the Economic Barometer:  period-over-period, three improved and three worsened.  Either way, as the high-level financial professionals below depicted in the Econ Baro tell us, the S&P 500 (which month-to-date is barely down -1.5%) loves “no news” and further, “S&P 6200 is a done deal”:  

But then there’s next week:  18 metrics come due for the Baro, including that breath-holding, “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures for March.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics already found March to be deflationary!  Will the Bureau of Economic Analysis find same via the PCE?  Likewise, shall the first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product be negative?  So anticipates   Raphael “Reality” Bostic’s Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Either way:  prepare the popcorn!

Still, at the end of the day, ’tis all ok.  Despite fears of recession, “TT”, and unsupportive earnings, we’re nonetheless told to expect “S&P 6200!”  For as decreed Yul Brynner in the role of Pharaoh Rameses I of Egypt –[The Ten Commandments, Paramount, ’56]:  “So let it be written; so let it be done!”

‘Course what really need be done is — meme as it may be — hold Gold whilst on a Silver shopping spree!

Cheers!

…m…

25 April 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time

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The elements of the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Our current leaders of Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are on a 10-test basis: the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics along with the 30mn Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis same for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Gold — which by Market Values remains severely near-term overbought — is returning down into the 3200s: more on that in tomorrow’s 806th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. The Econ Baro looks to April’s UofM Sentiment revision. And Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 — which had a robust start — is fading as more companies report, 150 having thus far so done.