PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

The Swiss Franc and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility continues light per this time of day. Gold yesterday hit a year-to-date low at 1825 as the weekly parabolic Short trend moves along with its course; again the support zone is 1851-1798; Gold by Market Values is -71 points below its smooth valuation line. As for both Silver and Copper, their cac volumes are moving from March into May, (and that for the Bond from March into June). The S&P yesterday averted a fifth consecutive down day; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall, the linear regression trend as noted having only just turned negative; still the Index’s MoneyFlow has been a net gainer, evidence that “fear” has yet to set in. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices for January comes into the Econ Baro today, other metrics for the month including Personal Income/Spending and New Home Sales.

‘Tis fairly quiet across the BEGOS Markets with only Copper outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, as anticipated the Spoo’s linear regression has rotated to negative: thus all eight components are now in descending trends as the Dollar pushes upward into its highs which began the year. By Market Rhythms, the Spoo’s 2-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short: typical price follow-through would be a run down to 3950; ‘course that can be further exacerbated by the daily MACD, Moneyflow and Parabolic all having just recently gone Short as well. And for the Econ Baro we’ve the 2nd read of Q4, the consensus for which is the same +2.9% annualized rate initially reported, (even as the Econ Baro declined on Q4 metrics).

Yesterday’s early leaders are today’s early losers, both Copper and Oil at present below their respective Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s MoneyFlow decline was on par with that for the S&P itself, however there has yet to be substantive “fear” in the selling to this point; as noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linear regression trend whilst still positive has nearly rotated to negative (see Market Trends) which could induce more fear-oriented selling near-term. Too, the yield on the S&P 500 is now 1.695% vs. that for the 3-month T-Bill of 4.688%. As for Gold, despite further geo-political stirrings, price remains content in dealing with the 1851-1798 support zone, even as Friday’s 1st RUS/UKR war anniversary approaches; and as oft pointed out, geo-political Gold price spikes tend to wane in full shortly thereafter.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues with only Copper and Oil at present above their Neutral Zones; notably below same are the Bond, Gold and Spoo.; overall session volatility incorporating the two days is now moderate-to-robust, Copper having traded 103% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are swiftly falling such that by week’s-end all eight components many be in negative linear regression as the Dollar these last few weeks continues to regain the bid. And going ’round the horn at Market Values (in real-time), the Bond shows as -4.9 points “low” per its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -1.68 points “low”, Gold as -67 points “low”, Oil as 1.71 points “low” and the Spoo as +59 points “high”. The Econ Baro looks to January’s Existing Home Sales.

Given the StateSide holiday we’ve a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets, beginning the week with Oil at present above its Neutral Zone; the balance of the components are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update confirms the weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Long to Short: therein we anticipate the 1851-1798 support zone to hold. For the Spoo by its daily rhythms, both the Parabolics and Moneyflow studies confirmed flipping Short effective today’s open; (the daily MACD was first to so do a week ago); however per our S&P MoneyFlow page, money has been substantively thrown into the market essentially at the ignorance of the S&P’s still extremely high P/E, the futs’adj’d “live” reading now 39.8x; there remain two weeks to run in Q4 Earnings Season.

All eight BEGOS Markets are in the red, seven of them (save for Oil) at present below their respective neutral zones for today; volatility is moderate. As we glide into a three-day StateSide weekend, the Spoo again looks to confirm what this week has been a whippy Moneyflow signal to Short, possibly targeting the lower 3900s, depending upon the level of this Sunday night opening; (the BEGOS Markets trade through most of Monday even as the U.S. physical bourses are closed). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s still positive linear regression is more swiftly rotating toward negative as the “Baby Blues” (in real-time) have begun accelerating their fall. Specific to our calculation of the S&P’s MoneyFlow, some fear finally emerged in yesterday’s selling, the Flow suggesting a drop for the S&P of -2.3% vs. the Index’s actually dropping only -1.4%. The Econ Baro wraps its week with January’s Ex/Im Prices and Leading (lagging) Indicators.

Both Copper and Oil are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 (for which the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 41.0x) is now “textbook overbought” through these past 24 trading days; by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 157 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; and by its Market Profile, the two most dominantly-traded underlying supports are 4145 and 4125. This week’s busy cavalcade of incoming Econ Baro metrics continues, today including February’s Philly Fed Index and January’s Housing Start/Permits plus the PPI.

We’ve at present the Euro, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably having traded already traded 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) to as low as 1842. The Spoo is seeing its daily Moneyflow rhythm being whipsawed, having gone from Long to Short into Monday, Short to Long into Tuesday, and now Long to Short into today, reflective of lacking commitment to drive the S&P higher, (it now being “textbook overbought” through the past 23 trading days); still by Market Trends, the Spoo remains the sole component in positive linear regression, but with its “Baby Blues” lacking upside puff. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with February’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index, January’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and December’s Business Inventories.

Only the Bond is at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; the other BEGOS Markets are relatively quiet, and volatility is notably light ahead of today’s retail inflation report, the headline CPI “expected” to have leapt from negative in December to positive for January. Gold: as anticipated, its weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long to Short (and barring a rise above 1975 by week’s end, ’twill be confirmed). The “live” P/E of the of S&P is 40.9x and the Index is now “textbook overbought” for 22 consecutive trading days. And by Market Values (in real-time) the Spoo is 138 points “high” versus is smooth valuation line.

Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update anticipates lower levels for the yellow metal (a support zone being 1851-1798) especially should the weekly parabolic Long trend flip to Short this week, (the trigger there being 1862 and the low thus far today already 1868). At Market Trends, the Spoo is the only component with a positive linear regression trend; however, both the daily Moneyflow and daily MACD confirmed flipping to Short per today’s open: by our Market Rhythms measures, either study suggests at least a -100-point drop for the Spoo during the course of the Short period, the span for in the past have typically run for some three-to-five weeks. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a packed week of 18 incoming metrics.

Gold and Silver are the only BEGOS Markets at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is moderate. The Spoo is having preliminary negative crossings on both its daily MACD and daily Moneyflow, which if confirmed at close to are suggestive of lower levels into next week. Too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) broke below their +80% level yesterday as the consistency of the positive linear regression trend begins to break down. Even as the S&P itself finished down yesterday, it nonetheless recorded its 20th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E remains stubbornly high at 40.0x. The Econ Baro concludes its light week with January’s UofM Sentiment Survey and December’s Treasury Budget.

Both Copper and the Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. By Market Values (real-time readings), both Gold and Oil are fairly in line with their smooth valuation levels; the Bond shows as 2.6 points “low”, the Euro as .0216 points “low”, and the Spoo as 151 points “high”; the Spoo (4156) by its Market Profile can see selling accelerate sub-4125. The S&P’s “textbook overbought” streak is now 19 trading days in duration and the “live” P/E is 40.4x. The Econ Baro’s quiet week continues with just the prior week’s Jobless Claims on today’s menu.

FedChairPowell’s address yesterday put the S&P into a highly whipsaw mode, albeit the Spoo at present early on is “unch”; the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday completed the S&P 500’s 18th consecutive day as “textbook overbought” and the “live” P/E this morning is 41.4x. At Market trends we’ve now negative linear regressions for the Bond, Silver, Copper and Oil. And by Market Values, four of the five primary components (the Bond, Euro, Gold and Oil) are below their smooth valuation lines, but none extremely so. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s Wholesale Inventories.

‘Tis all quiet for the BEGOS Markets upon this marginally earlier post: all eight components are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is light. Still, the S&P 500 recorded its 17th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought” with a “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of 40.1x as Q4 Earnings Season rolls along: thus far for the S&P, 59% (of 240 constituents having reported) have improved their year-over-year bottom lines, (thus 41% have not so done). And specific to the Spoo, we are minding its daily Moneyflow study for a settle below the 48 level (scale 0-100) as it continues to rank best for follow-through consistency amongst the 405 Market Rhythm tests run following each trading day (10-swing test basis); such sub-48 settle would suggest further price fallout. Today the Econ Baro looks to December’s Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.

The week begins with both Gold and Copper at present above their Neutral Zones for today, whilst the Bond and Spoo are flirting below same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update confirms the foreseen near-term fall for the yellow metal with an eye to the 1800s being supportive; acknowledged too with Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend nearing a flip to Short, typical price follow-through historically suggests the 1700s again being seen; however at this juncture we’re not anticipating such. At Market Values, the Euro has crossed below its smooth valuation line suggestive of still lower levels as the Dollar attempts to firm without revisiting the sub-100s. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro which has a quiet week ahead with just six incoming metrics due.

StateSide ’tis Payrolls day for January. Save for the Euro which is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, the other BEGOS Markets all are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 now stands as 15 days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 41.2x. The MoneyFlow for the S&P has substantively turned about to the upside, notably into the tech-heavy large cap-weighted constituents, even as year-over-year comparisons are weaker; ’tis remindful in a sense of the race into the 2000-2002 DotComBomb. The Dollar seems firming just above the 100 level, and in real-time the Euro has crossed below its smooth valuation line (See Market Values) suggestive of lower levels. In addition to the jobs data, we’ve also for the Econ Baro January’s ISM(Svc) Index.

Following the anticipated +0.25% FOMC interest rate raise, the BEGOS Markets are relatively quiet with only Copper at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today. Session volatility is mostly light. Gold (rather than running out of puff as we’ve recently suggested) has traded thus far today as high as 1975, a price not seen since this past 19 April. The MoneyFlow in the S&P 500, notably post-FOMC, is robust even as the “live” P/E this morning (futs-adj’d) is 41.0x, which historically is an unmaintainable level; too, the Index is now measured for 14 consecutive days as “textbook overbought”; indeed we still seek an S&P sub-3000 as the year unfolds. And by the S&P’s regression channel (on occasion posted in The Gold Update), had COVID not occurred, the Index today on such growth track would likely be sub-3000 regardless. Amongst today’s incoming metrics, the Econ Baro looks to December’s Factory Orders, plus the initial read of Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Copper is trading at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light ahead of the FOMC’s Policy Statement (19:00 GMT). By Market Values, the Bond, Euro and Oil are in sync with their smooth valuation lines, Gold shows as 62 points “high” and the Spoo as 95 points “high”. The S&P itself is now 13 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” and the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.3x. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominantly traded price across the past ten trading sessions is 4033. For Market Rhythm consistency, on a 10-test swing basis the best of late remains the Spoo’s daily Moneyflow study and on a 24-test swing basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits January’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Mfg) Index, plus December’s Construction Spending.

The Euro and all the components of the metals triumvirate are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500, even having dropped -1.3% yesterday, remains “textbook overbought” now through the past 12 trading days; and by the MoneyFlow page, all three measures have returned to positive differentials, indicative that the recent S&P 500 was substantive; however with the “live” P/E at 38.6x, lack of supportive earnings remains the downside key. As anticipated per the current edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal’s price is starting to come off. Moreover at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” are falling (inclusive of real-time) for all eight BEGOS components. Today’s Econ Baro looks to January’s Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, plus Q4’s Employment Cost Index.

The Bond, Copper and the Spoo all are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update suggests price may run out of puff near-term; too, trading volume rolled from the February contract into that for April, with +16 points of premium. Both the Bond and Copper confirmed parabolic Short signals on their respective daily studies as of today’s open. By Market Trends, the Bond, Gold and Copper all see their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency rolling over following the firm recent rallies in these components. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 15 incoming metrics as the week unfolds.

We were a bit surprised to see the first read on Q4 GDP come in as well as it did at +2.9%, albeit a slower pace than that finalized for Q3’s +3.2%; the Econ Baro’s decidedly negative tilt suggested the number would be notably weaker; we’ll see how the two revisions play out. At present, the Bond and Silver both are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is yet again mostly light. The “live” futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 40.1x with the Index now “textbook overbought” for 10 consecutive trading days. Oil’s trade has narrowed since the 12-hr. MACD turned negative, however price has (yet) to let go to the downside; too by Market Values, price continues to hover above its smooth valuation line. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Baro are December’s Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, and the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today, all the other components are within same, and volatility is again mostly light. Today brings the first read of Q4’s GDP: the consensus expects a lower read than for Q3’s +3.2%, and the Econ Baro not only agrees, but suggests the +2.6% expectation may be too robust; (indeed we wouldn’t be entirely surprised by a negative read). The S&P 500 has been “textbook overbought” for nine consecutive trading days: the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.2x. OIl has yet to respond to its negative 12-hr. MACD cross; mind too Oil’s price versus its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Other metrics included for the Baro today are December’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

Both Gold and the Spoo are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. At Market Values, Oil is curling down towards its smooth valuation line; too, Oil’s 12-hr. MACD (its best Market Rhythm at present) is crossing to negative. By Market Trends, Silver is the only component in negative regression. For swing consistency, topping the list (on a 10-test basis) is the Swiss Franc’s 30-mn. Moneyflow study, whilst (on a 24-test basis) the leader (whilst not an official BEGOS component) is the Yen’s 2-hr. MACD. The Econ Baro remains quiet today ahead of 10 incoming metrics over the next two days.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present not inside, (indeed above), its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As much as we champion Gold’s rise (from 1618 on 03 November to its present 1941 level), we remain wary of price’s deviation above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) which in real-time is 105 points; regardless, Gold’s cac volume is improved over that of the prior two months, evidence that the yellow metal is “getting the bid.” Money too has been flowing by our near-term measure (see S&P MoneyFlow) into the S&P 500 even as its “live” P/E is a fut’s-adj’d 39.5x; however the Spoo by Market Values is only some 55 points high; still, the S&P itself has been “textbook overbought” for the past seven trading days; the Spoo (at present 4034) by Market Profiles finds its most dominantly traded price across the past fortnight as 4013.

The week begins with Gold the only weak link, price at present below its Neutral Zone for today; all of the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price having been steady as the Econ Baro has suffered a plunge, and reiterates the 1800s having morphed (we anticipate) from resistance into support; by Market Values in (real-time), Gold is 92 points above its smooth valuation line which suggests some stalling or near-term downside; but on balance, Gold’s present picture is quite durable. For the S&P 500, its “live” P/E is (futs-adj’d) 39.3x and the yield is 1.662% (vs. the 4.538% annualized yield on the 3-month T-Bill). For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The Euro and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500’s monetary outflow specific to the past two negative days has been sufficiently without thrust that per the MoneyFlow page’s weekly read such that the differential is rising; however by the broad quarterly measure, the S&P appears as 400 points “high”. Even as the S&P has come some 100 points off the year’s high, the P/E is not materially coming off (the futs-adj’d “live” read now 37.4x) as only 52% of constituents having reported bettered their bottom lines from a year ago. Whilst the Spoo is pointing to a higher S&P opening today, both the Market Value and Market Magnet for the Spoo have confirmed negative crossovers, suggesting still lower levels in the near-term balance. The Econ Bare completes its week with December’s Existing Home Sales.

Yesterday the Econ Baro tied for its worst single-day drop in its 25-year history, the data marked (at least for the present) by deflationary shrinkage. Today at the moment, we’ve both the Bond and Gold above their Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Copper; volatility is mostly light. One wonders if (similar to last year ’round this time) the S&P has printed its high (4015) for this year, given lack of supportive earnings and the negative bias in the MoneyFlow by our broadest (quarterly) measure; one Market Rhythm we’re minding for the Spoo is its daily MoneyFlow (data provider version) to confirm a cross below the 0.50 level: typically this has led to drops in the area of some 140 points, (which in the big picture for the S&P is not that much considering the extreme overvaluation). The Econ Baro looks to metrics including January’s Philly Fed Index and December’s Housing Starts/Permits.

Although not yet an official BEGOS Markets’ component, the Yen is taking a fairly severe hit this morning, the BOJ standing pat on it yield curve. Otherwise at present, the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper all are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is firmly moderate. By Market Trends, all 8 components are now in linear regression uptrends, reflective to some degree of “money coming into everything” (save for the Dollar) to start the year. Oil’s cac volume has moved from Feb into Mar. And a good number of metrics are due today for the Econ Baro, including January’s NAHB Index, December’s PPI, Retail Sales, IndProd/CapUtil, and November’s Business Inventories. Late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The two-day session continues, now finding the Swiss Franc as the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone; below same are the Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil; volatility has expectedly broadened to moderate-to-robust. Gold has traded to as high as 1932; now at 1914, by Market Values price is 109 points above its smooth valuation line, a relatively high deviation, and yet a testament to Gold’s volume-driven strength of late. In terms of Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the most consistent is still the Spoo’s daily Moneyflow study, whilst on a 24-test swing basis ’tis Oil’s 2-hr. Moneyflow study. The Econ Baro starts its busy week with January’s New York State Empire Index.

StateSide physical bourses are closed for the holiday; the BEGOS Markets are up and running via GLOBEX in this two-day session for Tuesday settlement, (with the usual trading halt late in the Monday stint). At present, the Euro, Oil, Copper and Gold all are trading below their Neutral Zones; none of the other components are above same, and volatility is actually moderate considering the off day. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal’s recent rally as both volume and moneyflow substantive, the 1800s now as opportunity for support rather than resistance. The S&P 500 remains extremely high whether measured per our pages by its “live” P/E or broad MoneyFlow. The Econ Baro has 15 incoming metrics due as the week unfolds.

Following yesterday’s vibrant post-CPI (-0.1%) trading, only Gold is at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Trends, Oil (in real-time) sees its linear regression having (barely) rotated to negative; that for the Bond remains negative, however that for the Spoo has rotated to positive, (short-lived, we believe, given the dauntingly-high “live” P/E and broader negative MoneyFlow measure, both within the ongoing higher interest environment). Gold has eclipsed the 1900 level as suggested per the weekly Parabolic trend having flipped to Long back on 11 November. (Gold’s All-Time High is 2089, current price is 1906; see too tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update). The Econ Baro concludes its week with January’s first peek at the UofM Sentiment Survey, plus December’s Ex/Im Prices.

At present the Bond, Gold and Silver are above their Neutral Zones for today; Copper is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light-to-moderate. Across the six prior trading days, Copper has increased nearly 13%, ’tis said as China further opens. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is now 38.8x; our MoneyFlow page for the S&P continues to anticipate a broadly lower move in due course. Q4 Earnings Season thus far is feeble, but we’ll see in the next days how the financials fared. December’s CPI and Treasury Budget are among today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics.

The Bond and the BEGOS Markets’ Metals Triumvirate are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil (as it appeared to be doing a couple of weeks back) sees its linear regression rotating toward negative: whether that confirms this time ’round (as it did not prior) can be a function per the Market Profile of 75.00 being the most dominant trading price across the past 10 sessions and thus the degree to which that becomes resistance; further overhead resistors are 77.80 and 79.30; Profile support shows at 73.70. Note to readers: entries for the next day or two may not be as timely as usual, and this Saturday’s 687th edition of The Gold Update may be somewhat abridged from the norm.

Both Silver and Oil are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is notably light. For the Spoo, we view yesterday as a failed rally, price being +60 points intraday only to finish “unch”; by Market Trends, that for the Spoo continues to be negative as it has been these past three weeks, albeit rising the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency depict the negativity as been less so; by Market Values, the Spoo (3907 in real-time) is some 70 points below its smooth valuation line, (which in the broader picture is basically noise). Still, the “live” P/E of the S&P remains extremely high at 37.4x, with Q4 Earnings Season now underway, which can be tracked on our page. November’s Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.

Starting the week at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Oil; the Bond is the only BEGOS Market below same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal’s bullish bent to begin the year. The S&P 500 after having been “textbook oversold” for 13 consecutive sessions unwound that stance on Friday. The Spoo itself triggered a Long signal at the overnight open per the daily MoneyFlow Market Rhythm suggestive of a move en route above 4000 (currently 3922); however the separately calculated true MoneyFlow of the S&P itself continues to herald significantly lower levels ultimately being in the offing. November’s Consumer Credit starts the week for the Econ Baro.

Gold and Silver are the two BEGOS Markets at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. The leading aspect of the S&P’s MoneyFlow remains weak across all three of our timeframes, the weekly read suggesting 72 points lower, the monthly 235 points lower and the quarterly 481 points lower: recall during 2022 that the Index did not reach all the way down to the base of its 3600-3200 support zone, which we anticipate to be in the offing this year, if not lower still should the P/E revert to its mean (as graphically depicted in last Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update). Six metrics hit the Econ Baro to complete its first week of 2023 including December’s Payrolls data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus November’s Factory Orders.

The Bond, Gold and Silver all are trading at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. Even as Oil had fallen some 9 points to being the year, by Market Trends the linear regression remains positive, its “Baby Blues” of consistency having yet to turn lower; broadly on a Market Profile basis, both 72 and 66 appear volume supportive. And by Market Values, Oil at 73.57 is (in real-time) -4.33 points below its smooth valuation line, (although historically that hardly is an extreme deviation); still, yesterday’s close by the Market Magnet appears as nearly 5 points “low”. For the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include December’s ADP Employment Data and November’s Trade Deficit.

Six of the eight BEGOS Markets are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; only the Spoo is inside of same, and Oil is below same; volatility is again moderate-to-robust. By Market Trends, the Bond, Copper and the Spoo remain in negative linear regression. Gold is having a firm start to 2023; ’tis not unusual for the yellow metal to get a bid early in a new year: by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 87 points above its smooth valuation line; Gold (at present 1865) shows Market Profile support at 1845, then more so at 1828-1825. Silver (now 24.46) has Profile support at 24.25. At our MoneyFlow page for the S&P 500, Flow continues to negatively exceed Index change, suggestive of still lower S&P levels. The Econ Baro looks to December’s ISM(Mfg) Index. And the FOMC’s 13/14 Meeting Minutes come due late in the session.

The Spoo has spurted higher to start the year and is above its Neutral Zone for today as are the Bond, Gold and Silver; the Euro and Swiss Franc are below same, and volatility already is moderate-to-robust with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper having thus far exceeded 100% of their EDTRs for today (see Market Ranges). Even as the precious metals rise, the Dollar too is firm (again per our long-running observance that “Gold plays no currency favourites”). Amongst our Market Rhythms, the most consistent swing results as year-end were (last 10 swings) the Spoo’s daily MoneyFlow study and (last 24 swings) the Spoo’s 60-minute Parabolics. The Econ Baro starts its year with November’s Construction Spending.

As was the case a week ago, the BEGOS Markets take their New Year holiday today, with trading commencing 2023 tonight at 23:00 GMT. The Gold Update cites Gold’s perfectly unchanged year from 1830 to 1830 with quite symmetrical deviations of some 200 points en route up to the high and down to the low. Stressed, too, is the ongoing extreme overvaluation of the S&P 500 be it by earnings (i.e. lack thereof) per the historical track of the Index’s P/E, the departure of the Index from its regression channel, and the truthful level of the MoneyFlow versus the frothy level of the Index; on balance we expect a very difficult year for equities. However for Gold, it only shall breakout upon a curtailing of the arguable price suppression plus realization at large that Gold is a critical asset to hold. The Econ Baro starts its year tomorrow with 11 incoming metrics in this first week.

All eight BEGOS Markets begin the final trading day of the year at present within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is mostly light. Yesterday’s +1.7% rally in the S&P 500 was not sufficient to unwind the “textbook oversold” trading status, now nine days in duration; regardless, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of the S&P is 37.0x, and by the MoneyFlow page the quarterly reading suggests the S&P be -525 points lower that its present level of 3849. Meanwhile at Market Values, we’ve the Bond as some -2 points “low” from its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.028 points “high”, Gold as +51 points “high”, Oil in sync with valuation, and the Spoo as -132 points “low”. And by Market Trends, they are positive for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Oil (barely), and negative for the Bond, Copper (barely) and the Spoo. The Econ Baro completes its year with December’s Chi PMI. Happy New Year!

The Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and volatility is again light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to work lower as the linear regression downtrend becomes more consistent, albeit the S&P 500 itself has recorded its eighth consecutive day as “textbook oversold”; the Spoo (3813) has broken below the aforementioned key support/resistance zone now fairly defined as the 3850s. Oil’s uptrend has lost but all of its consistency, its rising “Baby Blues” now stalling on their 0% axis. By the same construct, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are the firmest of the bunch. The Dollar Index has essentially come off as much as -10% since its September high.

Both Gold and Oil are trading below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are at present within same, and volatility is light. At the MoneyFlow page, the differential on the quarterly measure is now -664 points, a leading impetus toward lower S&P levels; still, the S&P 500 just recorded its seventh consecutive session as “textbook oversold”. Specific to the Spoo (3868), the tight 3863-3855 range is building (by Market Profiles) as a key support/resistance band; more broadly (by Market Rhythms) the Spoo’s daily MoneyFlow (data provider version) tops the list of the 405 rhythms run per night; the study’s hindsight swing profit across the past 10 triggers since mid-March is $80k/cac. The Econ Baro awaits November’s Pending Home Sales.

The BEGOS Markets begin the week on a positive note, the Euro, Gold, Silver Copper and the Spoo at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none are below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond by Market Trends appears within a day or so of seeing its linear regression trend rotate from positive to negative to join both the Spoo and Oil as such, (however that for the latter is rotating toward a return to positive with the balance of the bunch). As fundamentally overvalued is the S&P, it nonetheless shows as “textbook oversold” these last six sessions, and the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) -84 points below its smooth valuation line. Again, the MoneyFlow diversion noted in yesterday’s comment is of greater import toward ultimately lower S&P levels.

Briefly as the BEGOS Markets are closed until they commence their new week tonight at 23:00 GMT, we point to our MoneyFlow page for the S&P 500 wherein by the quarterly measure the Flow is -605 points below the Index itself. As this is a leading indicator, we sense it does not bode well for the S&P as it transits into 2023, (nor does the “live” P/E of 36.4x given the historic mean of 22.4x). As penned in the current edition of The Gold Update: “…the S&P 500 (3845) is +62% above its earnings valuation and … Gold (1806) is -53% below its U.S. Dollar debasement valuation…” ‘Twould appear the era of easy money is ending.

The members of the BEGOS Markets’ metals triumvirate are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is still for this time of the session mostly light. Yesterday in pointing to the Spoo’s swiftly falling “Baby Blues” (see Market trends), the high-to-low range was -131 points; our “live” P/E of the S&P is now 35.7x. As well in the overvalued sensed, the S&P itself (3822) by our quarterly MoneyFlow reading is 549 points too high; however by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) having come off a bit now shows as 130 points too low, (of course, the MoneyFlow is a broader, bearish measure). The Econ Baro finishes its busy week with metrics including November’s Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending and the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation: Core PCE Prices. Merry Christmas to Everyone Everywhere!

Both the Bond and Euro are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility again is mostly light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are swiftly falling, the negative linear regression trend becoming more consistently so; consistency is notably unraveling for the positive trends of both the Bond and Copper. As a near-term trading rhythm for the Spoo, the 2-hour parabolic study purely on a swing basis has been repetitively fruitful this December. November’s Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators come due for the Econ Baro, which also awaits the final read for Q3 GDP.

Both Gold and Silver are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Values, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” confirmed dropping below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower levels near-term; at a glance however, the Bond looks more as a sell into strength below 132 rather than an outright sell here at 128, (subject as ever to one’s cash management parameters); by Market Values (in real-time) the Bond shows as 2.5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; but by its “faster” Market Magnet, the Bond settled yesterday some 2.5 points “low”. For the Econ Baro we’ve December’s Consumer Confidence, November’s Existing Home Sales, and Q3’s Current Account Deficit.

Whilst not an officially BEGOS Market, the Yen is on the move, +3.4% as the Bank of Japan doubles the width of its 10-year Bond’s trading band, the Dollar Index in turn at present -0.6%. Gold and Silver both are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are the Bond, Oil and Spoo; volatility is moderate-to-robust. By our Market Values page (in real-time): the Bond shows as +3.2 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.04 points “high”, Gold as +65 points “high”, Oil as -8.90 points “low”, and the Spoo as -133 points “low”. The Econ Baro receives November’s Housing Starts and Building Permits.

The busy StateSide Econ Data week begins with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Spoo all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; only the Bond is below same (Oil is quiet), and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update again lays out a case for 1900 (current price 1806) as the fundamentalists face off against the technicians guarding the overhead resistance of the 1800s in general. The Spoo (even though up early on) has confirmed its linear regression trend having rotated to negative (see Market Trends); the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) is 36.1x. And the Econ Baro awaits December’s NAHB Housing Index.