Mark

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are the Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 completed an eighth consecutive day as “textbook oversold” and would see a bounce (were it to open at this instant) of +0.6%; clearly however, the Index broadly remains overvalued, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this moment 45.8x. Still, by Market Values, the Spoo is -336 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold’s 21-day linreg in real-time has provisionally rotated to negative, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits wholesale inflation for February via the PPI, and purportedly (again) January’s Factory Orders; then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for we expect no change in rates, albeit with a cautionary note toward stubborn inflation.

Copper is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. For the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time) by their Market Values: the Bond shows as -6^11 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro as 0.070 points “low”, Gold as -195 points “low”, Oil as +29.95 points “high”, and the Spoo as -410 points low: obviously all these extremes have largely been elicited by responses to the war and firming Dollar. Specific to the Spoo, it (on Friday) confirmed a negative daily EMA has crossover: thus commencing from yesterday’s open (6660), we may near-term see 6609 trade on the downside as the last 10 such crossovers — either Long or Short — have distanced at least 50 points of follow-through travel; (see the Market Rhythm chart at the foot of BEGOS Markets > S&P 500). February’s Pending Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.

Both Copper and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility continues to this hour as moderate. The Gold Update underscores price having fallen through the first two war weeks, and is again lower a bit this morning: the yellow metal has completed a -10% correction from its All-Time High (5586 on 29 January). As noted, Copper is higher today, albeit has not regained the volume-dominant 5.8050 level down through which it fell on Friday (see Market Profiles). April Oil has returned above the 100 handle for the first time since last Monday, however cac volume is now rolling into that for May at a price discount of -1.90; too, cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from March into that for June with +49 points of premium. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices, plus February’s IndProd/CapUtil.

As was the case at this time yesterday, we’ve both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, as too are Silver, Copper and the Spoo; the Bond, Gold and Oil are within same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Gold in its weakening uptrend (see the falling “Baby Blues” at Market Trends) has moved below its smooth valuation line, now in real-time by -95 points (see Market Values); more of course in tomorrow’s 852nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 has closed lower for eight of the past 11 trading days; technically it remains “textbook oversold”, albeit is still well-overvalued by the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of presently 44.8x; from the Index’s all-time high of 7002 (28 January), it has corrected by as much as -5.2% (to 6636 on 09 March). Contract volume for the Euro and Swiss Franc is rolling from March into that for June. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with incoming metrics of March’s UofM Sentiment Survey, January’s Durable Orders, Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” PCE data, along with the first revision to Q4’s GDP.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all presently beneath their respective neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, four BEGOS components are in negative linreg (the Bond, Euro, Swiss and Spoo), the other four positively-sloped (Gold, Silver Copper and Oil); however, given the volatile lurches of late, the “Baby Blues” in some cases are less consistent than the norm. Gold has slipped back below volume-dominant support of 5195 (see Market Profiles), as have both the Euro and Swiss Franc, the Dollar getting a mild bid today. Our top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr Moneyflow, and on a 24-test basis again the Yen’s 2hr MACD. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include January’s Housing Starts/Permits and Trade Deficit.

The Euro is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Gold is teasing either side of its Market Profile’s most volume-dominant price of 5195, (current price 5202); should such support fail, we’d look near-term down to 5105; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 153 points; for pure swing consistency, Gold’s best Market Rhythm has been the 4hr Parabolics (10-test basis) and 6hr Moneyflow (24-test basis). The S&P 500 has on balance worked down such as to become mildly “textbook oversold”; the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) -313 points below its smooth valuation line. And for the Econ Baro we await the first indications of February inflation via the CPI, even as the PCE for January shan’t be released (purportedly) until Friday; too for February we get the Treasury Budget late in the session.

Following yesterday’s whirl ’round recovery across the BEGOS Markets — Oil notably giving back all of its extraordinary gain on the day — we’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver above their Neutral Zones, whilst the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. Save for Oil, at Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for the seven other BEGOS components. The Bond, after trading as anticipated down into the 115s, recovered enough to clear its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor at 116^12, price now 116^17; for the past two trading days, the Bond’s 15mn Moneyflow has been our best Market Rhythm for that component by pure swing consistency. The Econ Baro gets its busy week underway today with February’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for Oil (+10.1%) which is above its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets all are below same; session volatility is robust, Oil having traced 473% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores last week’s price decline as was anticipated; the yellow metal today (-1.4%) is just about in sync (+28 points) with its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price reverting to that “mean”; for the other primary BEGOS Components: the Bond is -2^27 points below valuation, indeed trading in the 115s as we suggested ‘twould; the Euro shows as -0.056 points below same, the Spoo is below by -442 points, but Oil is far above valuation by +37 points. Despite the Spoo’s large deviation below its valuation line, the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P remains critically high at 44.4x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 16 scheduled metrics as the week unfolds.

Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three (on a 10-test basis) are Gold’s 30mn MACD, the Euro’s 8hr Parabolics and same for the non-BEGOS Yen; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s 2hr MACD and 1hr Parabolics, plus Gold’s 4hr Parabolics. Specific to the Spoo, its most consistent Rhythm has been (10-tests) the 15mn Price Oscillator and (24-tests) daily Moneyflow. Tomorrow brings our 851st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, in which we’ll emphasize (as was rather anticipated) price now being lower than ’twas pre-war. Finally for the Econ Baro, we’ve sources that conflict (the government “shutdown” hangover still affecting the data flow) as to what actually gets reported today: to be sure, metrics shall include Payrolls data for February along with Retail Sales and Consumer Credit for January; too, there may one or more reports as to various Inventories measures and Factory Orders.

The Bond, EuroCurrencies and Copper are presently all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower prices: currently 116^15, an excursion from here down into the 115s wouldn’t be untoward; the yield on the underlying 30yr Bond itself (4.716%) has been increasing this week such that its MACD is poised to make a positive crossing; overhead Bond resistance is 117^00 (see Market Profiles). Meanwhile, the yield on the S&P 500 is 1.155% and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 45.9x. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro we’ve January’s Ex/Im Prices (and purportedly that month’s still “shutdown” delayed Factory Orders), plus Q4’s initial Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Both the Bond and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are (save for the Euro) all the other BEGOS Markets, and volatility is moderate. Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, Gold settled Friday at 5296; price Monday then peaked at 5434 before settling yesterday at 5100, thus recording yet another geo-political “spike n’ plunge” for the yellow metal. By Market Magnets, the following BEGOS components crossed below that leading measure yesterday: the Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; too, the Bond crossed beneath its BEGOS Market Value. Today (in real-time) by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are falling for every BEGOS Market except Oil, which yesterday reached as high as 77.98 after settling pre-conflict on Friday at 67.83; notable volume-dominant Market Profile supports for Oil are 72.00 and 66.50. For the Econ Baro we await February’s ADP Employment data and the month’s ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and the Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (having settled last Friday at 5296), traded as a geo-political spike yesterday up to 5434 (+138 points over Friday); now at 5327 ’tis but +31 points over Friday: as we’ve oft written, when Gold gets a geo-political spike, price then tends to return from whence it came, and indeed today’s low thus far of 5292 is -4 points below Friday. By Gold’s Market Profile, 5191 remains price’s most volume-dominant supporter. As for Oil, now at 73.33 ’tis 10.01 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values). The Dollar Index thus far this session has traded up to its highest level since 22 January at 98.765. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 15 metrics scheduled for the balance of the week.

Saturday’s Gold Update cites the 5400s as already trading on the weekend; the COMEX high for the Monday session thus far is 5434. At present, Gold, Silver and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones and respectively are +2.5%, +1.7%, and +8.2%; below same are the Bond, EuroCurrencies and the Spoo, itself -1.2%; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly robust. We are keen to see if Gold near-term reverts back from whence it has come as typically is its wont following geo-political price spikes: currently 5423, Gold settled Friday at 5296, its BEGOS Market Value (in real-time) 4984 and Fair Value 3884. On verra. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded: for the 457 S&P 500 constituents having therein reported, 71% improved their bottom lines over Q4 a year ago, bettering the average improvement pace of 66%; but as we regularly caution, the S&P’s overall level of earnings is considerably low relative to price, (the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this moment 45.1x). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ISM(Mfg) Index.

We’ve presently both Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility again is light. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs for all eight BEGOS components are in decline, very notably for Gold and Silver; by Market Trends, the 21-day linreg for Gold is mildly positive whilst that for Silver is mildly negative; more of course in tomorrow’s 850th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo by its Market Profile is sitting above a swath of trading support spanning from 6903 down to 6854: to the extent that holds through the session can be affected by January’s PPI; other Econ Baro metrics also due today are February’s Chi PMI, and well in “shutdown” arrears November’s Construction Spending in tandem with that for December. And we put a wrap of Q4 Earnings Season today, which as we’ve regularly been noting has been running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement, but not enough so by valuation to maintain the S&P 500’s lofty P/E of 46.6x (the “live” reading as futs-adj’d).

All eight BEGOS Markets are at present inside their respective Neutral Zones for today, session volatility being light. By Market Ranges’ EDTRs, all eight are narrower than they were both a day ago and a week earlier. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation currently is negative between the Bond and the Spoo; indeed by Market Trends, the Bond’s positive linreg is of the highest consistency (+87% in real-time) of all the components; the balance of the bunch find their “Baby Blues” (of trend consistency) lacking conviction regardless of current linreg direction. Our most steadfast Market Rhythm on a 10-test basis has been Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the Swiss Franc’s 4hr Moneyflow. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.6x and the yield a scant 1.140% (vs. that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill of 3.588%). The sole metric due today for the Econ Baro is the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims, ahead of wholesale inflation for January (PPI) to be reported tomorrow. And two days remain in Q4 Earnings Season.

Presently, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Silver’s cac volume is rolling from March into May, as did that yesterday for Copper; too, the Bond’s cac volume is rolling from March to June. The Gold Update noted that a robust up move would right the yellow metal’s linreg (see Market Trends) from having briefly been negative back to positive, which indeed is the case, albeit into week’s end we may see rotation back to negative should price not further climb from the 5200s area: this is because price was significantly higher 21 days ago, the All-Time High still maintained at 5586. Silver today has regained the 90 handle for the first time since 04 February, the Gold/Silver ratio reaching back down into the 50s: ’twas 60.7x at last week’s settle, and is now in real-time 57.7x. Originally scheduled today for the Econ Baro was January’s New Home Sales; however the Census Bureau along with “HUD” continue to run behind, given last autumn’s “shutdown”.

Per last night’s note, we experienced a data outage such that metrics from Friday were carried forward for Monday; thus pages such as Market Trends are redundant of Friday’s data for Monday; however, this shall all be corrected/resolved today and put right for tonight’s data runs. As for the present, Gold is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Copper is above same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again mostly moderate. The Spoo thus far today is in a volume-dominant band from 6854-6874 (see Market Profiles, the data for which was not affected by the outage); Gold too is centered it a profile band spanning from 5218 down to 5170. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Consumer Confidence, and what would appear to be a re-reporting of December’s Factory Orders from last Thursday.

Our Monday Night (23 February) runs were interrupted by a data outage such that some of the website analytics — notable those for Market Trends — are redundant to Friday’s data rather than those through Monday. Reparations shall be made during Tuesday such that we fully expect all being accurately restored-to-date by Tuesday night’s runs. …m…

We start the week finding at present both the Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. The Gold Update depicts the yellow metal’s 21-day linreg trend as having rotated to negative, albeit just barely so, even as price this session has made a higher-high for a third consecutive day. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is just slightly “low” (-0^13 points) vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.023 points “low”, Gold +256 points “high”, Oil +3.70 points “high”, and the Spoo -223 points “low”, although by earnings generation, the S&P 500 remains extremely overvalued. ‘Tis the final week of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro awaits “shutdown-delayed” Factory Orders for December.

Across the eight BEGOS Markets, just one is presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today: the Euro, as the Dollar’s firm February continues. Overall session volatility is again to this hour very light. Notably by Market Ranges, EDTRs are narrowing for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper. The yellow metal has spent the past three weeks flirting either side of the 5000 level, regardless remaining overvalued throughout both by its BEGOS valuation and Fair Value; too as anticipated, Gold’s 21-day linreg trend yesterday settled having rotated to negative; more of coure in tomorrow’s 849th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro concludes its week with the revision to February’s UofM Sentiment Survey, the first peek at Q4 GDP, and Personal Income/Spending including the much FinMedia anticipated “Fed-Favoured” PCE data for December, which we sense is a bit of a non-event given we’ve already had January’s CPI.

We’ve at present the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is very light. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are now in decline for every BEGOS component, save for the Bond, the Dollar on balance improving during February; and specific to Gold, its falling Blues are (in real-time) crossing beneath the 0% axis as the trend rotates toward negative, perhaps to be confirmed into the weekend. Oil has shown strength of late, moving yesterday above what had been Market Profile resistance of 64.00, as well as back above its Market Magnet. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s Philly Fed Index, January’s Pending Home Sales, and for December the Trade Deficit, purportedly along with (in “shutdown” arrears) Wholesale Inventories and Leading (quite lagging) Indicators.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) has all but rotated to negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency poised to move below the 0% axis; too by Market Magnets, Gold confirmed moving below said metric such that we ought see still lower prices near-term, even as the precious metals are getting a bid today. The MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 remains very net-negative vis-à-vis the Index itself: by our MoneyFlow page, the S&P per this leading indicator “ought be” on be (on a one-week basis) -130 points lower than ’tis, and (on a one-month basis) -535 points lower, plus (on a one-quarter basis) -641 points lower; the S&P’s futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 45.9x. For the Econ Baro we’ve January’s IndProd/CapUtil, plus December’s Housing Starts/Permits and Durable Orders. Then late in the session come the 27-28 January FOMC Minutes.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues with volatility naturally having widened from light at this time yesterday to now moderate. Above the session’s Neutral Zones are the Bond and Oil, whilst below same are the two EuroCurrencies, the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, and the Spoo. Gold high-to-low through the combined session has declined by as much as -199 points; by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +131 points above its smooth valuation line after having been +418 points a week ago; too by its Market Profile, Gold has slipped below its most volume-dominant support level of 4948; ’tis the like case for Silver having eclipsed down through 76.35. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from March into that for April. The week’s parade of 18 scheduled Econ Baro metrics begins today with February’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices.

Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement tomorrow (Tuesday). Presently, we’ve but one BEGOS component outside (below) its Neutral Zone for the session, that being Gold -0.9% (5017); overall volatility thus far expectedly is quite light. The Gold Update cites (as we’d anticipated a week prior) a compressing of the yellow metal’s trading range; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) for today is 248 points, but doubtless the actual range shan’t be that vast, (barring something geo-politically untoward); too, given the ongoing drop by Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends), the 21-day regression trend may confirm having rotated to negative by week’s end. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with a heavy balance of 18 metrics scheduled through the week. And with two weeks to run in Q4 Earnings Season, we still expect reports from some 100 S&P 500 constituents: thus far, 71% have bettered their like Q4 of a year ago, which continues to be an above-average pace; however, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at present 46.2x is a significant downside warning sign.

Presently we’ve the EuroCurrencies below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the precious metals; BEGOS Markets’ volatility remains light into this hour of the session. Gold, after having on Wednesday moved up through its Market Magnet, was unable to sustain upside furtherance, falling back down through same yesterday, as did both Oil and the Spoo; and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate yesterday failed to hold their most volume-dominant support levels (see Market Profiles). Also, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) — whilst still vast — have begun to narrow a bit; more on the metals in tomorrow’s 848th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And although we’re still a week away from the “Fed-favoured” PCE for December, today the Econ Baro receives the CPI for January. As for Q4 Earnings Season, with two weeks yet to run, some 100 S&P 500 constituents are still to report. Monday is a StateSide holiday for physical bourses.

At this moment, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility to this point continues to be light. Gold yesterday settled above its Market Magnet, suggestive of some upside follow-through near-term term, even as per The Gold Update price remains significantly overvalued; ’tis just mildly lower so far today. As to the Spoo, it crossed yesterday below its most volume-dominant Market Profile support level of 6968, even as price this morning is mildly higher. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.” And the Econ Baro awaits January’s Existing Home Sales along with the usual Initial Jobless Claims from the prior week.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility again is light. For the precious metals by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continue to fall for both Silver and Gold; but the trends currently are directionally opposed, that for the white metal being negative, yet still positive for Gold, (basis 21-day linear regression); volume-dominant Market Profile support for Silver is 77.65 whilst for Gold ’tis 4948. The ongoing above-average Q4 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 has served to bring its “live” (ttm) P/E down from the 50s into the 40s, (still a far cry above Jerome Cohen’s 11x-15x for a bull market); too, the S&P remains practically yieldless at 1.143% vs. the essentially riskless 3mo T-Bill’s annualized 3.590%, i.e. more than triple the return of the all-to-risk S&P. The Econ Baro looks to slightly-delayed January data for Payrolls, plus that month’s Treasury Budget.

At present we’ve the Bond above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Silver and Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light with a bevy of incoming EconData due through the balance of the week. With respect to both the noted white and red metals, their respective Market Trends are rotating to negative as too already have done those for the Bond and Spoo; the uptrenders thus remain the two EuroCurrencies, Oil and Gold, the latter’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continuing to fall as the uptrend weakens. Gold’s major Market Profile volume-dominant prices are: 5327, 5098 and 4948. Too for the Spoo, its most dominant is 6968. “Scheduled” metrics today for the Econ Baro are December’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, Q4’s Employment Cost Index, and in “shutdown” arrears, November’s Business Inventories.

The week starts finding at present both the Bond and Oil below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal having reached what historically (save for the FinCrisis) by percentage is peak volatility; too, both Gold and Silver remain well-overvalued vis-à-vis their respective Fair Value. Going ’round the horn in real-time for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components: we’ve the Bond -3^06 points “low” per its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.018 points “low”, Gold +365 points “high”, Oil +2.68 points “high”, and the Spoo -170 points “low” even as the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) remains what we deem as dangerously stretched at 45.8x. Three voluminous weeks of Q4 Earnings Season remains, wherein thus far, year-over-year improvement is above average; but again, prices on balance are very strained to the upside (see S&P 500 > Valuations and Rankings). And ’tis a busy week for the Econ Baro: although nothing is due today, the balance of the following four days seeks 16 incoming metrics.

Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil; the other three BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro and Spoo) are within same, and volatility for the session is moderate. Per yesterday’s comment on the weakening S&P 500 MoneyFlow, such leading indicator has further declined relative to the change in the Index itself (see S&P 500 > MoneyFlow). Silver from its record high of 121.785 just a week ago has since fallen into today by as much as -47.5% in reverting toward Fair Value, whereas Gold from 5586 has reverted just -16.4%: more on valuation of the precious metals in tomorrow’s 847th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Given the fall in the Spoo last evening post-RTH, it need rise some +33 points for the S&P not to open negatively come 14:30 GMT. The Econ Baro looks to UofM’s initial February Sentiment Survey; then late in the session to close out the week comes December’s Consumer Credit; (again as previously noted, January’s Payrolls data has been delayed until next Wednesday).

As to which we herein alluded last Friday, the MoneyFlow of the S&P 500 continues to deteriorate: by all three of our period measures, the S&P “ought be” several hundred points lower than currently ’tis; as this is a directionally leading indicator, do mind the MoneyFlow page; too by Market Trends, that for the Spoo has rotated to negative. At present, we’ve Silver, Copper and Oil below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate, duly noting therein that Silver has already traced 134% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); 4hr Silver (as mentioned in last Saturday’s Gold Update) continues to be a timely Market Rhythm for the white metal, notably by both Parabolics and Price Oscillator. ‘Tis a fairly quiet day for the Econ Baro with just last week’s Initial Jobless Claims coming due. And the Payrolls data for January has been rescheduled from tomorrow until next Wednesday.

Gold has regained (for now) the 5000 handle; price at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as are both Silver and the Spoo; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point is again light-to-moderate in the context that — with the exception of the Bond — EDTRs have been expanding (see Market Ranges). Silver (89.17) is up into structural resistance (86.13 to 93.56): should she stall in this range, mind that by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for both precious metals as their uptrends continue to weaken. Of note yesterday, Copper settled above both its most volume dominant resistance level (see Market Profiles) and too above its Market Magnet, whereas the Spoo settled beneath dominant support and the Magnet. For the Econ Baro today we’ve January’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Svc) Index.

The two EuroCurrencies and the Metals Triumvirate all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Yesterday had the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency (see Market Trends) for both Gold and Silver settle beneath their respective +80% axes, meaning both metals’ trends remain up, but are weakening such that bounces as we’re seeing today don’t necessarily preclude still lower prices near-term. By Market Profiles, the most volume-dominant overhead resistor for Gold is 5119 and for Silver 93.50. And by its Market Value, Gold in real-time (4937) is +371 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. For Q4 Earnings Season, 160 S&P 500 constituents have thus far reported with 115 (72%) having improved their bottom lines from Q4 year ago, which is an above-average pace. However, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E remains extremely high at 47.9x with the yield a lowly 1.132%; that for the 3mo T-Bill annualized is 3.578%.

Precious metals’ selling continues as Gold and Silver work lower toward being less overvalued; both are at present below today’s Neutral Zones as are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; the Bond is above same, and BEGOS Market’s volatility is robust, save for the EuroCurrencies. The Gold Update appears to have precisely called the year’s high at 5546 (price then only reaching a bit further to 5586), albeit we’ve tempered than by duly noting there still are 11 months in 2026’s balance; either way including today, Gold has fallen more than -1,000 points since last Thursday’s record high and Silver some -40%. The good news is Gold — which by its BEGOS Market Value was nearly +1,000 points — “high” has since cut that to now (in real-time) just +48 points “high”, although price is still more than +15% above Fair Value (3938). For the Econ Baro we’ve 10 metrics due this week, beginning today with January’s ISM(Mfg) Index.

No further record highs for the metals today: notably Gold, after yesterday achieving our forecast high for this year of 5546 — moved higher still to 5627 — only to then succumbed a full -500 points within the balance of the session. Have the metals maxed? More of course in tomorrow’s 846th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. For the moment, all eight BEGOS Markets are below their respective Neutral Zones for today, (meaning the Dollar is getting the bid); session volatility is robust with solid losses across the metals’ board (at present Gold -3.8%, Silver -6.5% and Copper -4.4%). The “:”live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 45.3x; the monetary outflow yesterday was far worse than the essentially “unch” day for the Index (see our MoneyFlow page). And the Econ Baro wraps the week with January’s Chi PMI and December’s PPI.

GOLD 5546 Achieved! With still these two trading days remaining in the new year’s first month, Gold this morning achieved our targeted forecast high for all of 2026, and then some, price reaching thus far up to 5627; Silver too has topped 120. Indeed at present, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones, as are the two EuroCurrencies and Oil; the Bond is below same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust, Copper alone having traced 250% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) in hitting an all-time high of 6.385. As for Gold in real-time, at 5581 ’tis +1051 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), a century-to-date record be it by points or percentage (+25%). Today’s Econ Baro metrics include in “shutdown” arrears November’s Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories and (purportedly) Factory Orders, plus Q3’s Revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Gold’s cac volume is rolling from February into that for April with an additional +39 points of premium, and — with or without — a fresh All-Time High has been reached thus far today at 5318 (April) or 5279 (February). Presently for the BEGOS Markets we’ve the Bond, Gold, Silver and the Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are the two EuroCurrencies; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold having traced 115% of its EDTR. Gold by Market Values is +803 points above its smooth valuation line; and dominant Market Profile support for the yellow metal (basis April) is 5121. Of note the current 5312 price is -234 points (-4.2%) below our forecast high for this year of 5546. The Spoo is positioned such that the S&P 500 (were it to open at this instant) would trade above 7000 for the first time. And much ado shall be FinMedia-made about “The Dow” approaching the 50,000 milestone. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And we look for no change in the FedFunds rate come the FOMC’s Policy Statement at 19:00 GMT.

Silver’s late-in-the-session drop yesterday of -12% prompted us to query on “X” (@deMeadvillePro) as to if the high was in place. However this morning, Silver is back above its Neutral Zone for today as are Gold, Copper and the Spoo; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, save for Silver which already has traced 141% of its EDT (see Market Ranges). Silver’s high yesterday was 117.70 whereas present price is 112.44 (+8.3% on the session). For the S&P 500, earnings improvements have driven the P/E down to 47.3x — still a dangerously high ratio — but at least well off it having been above 64x in the prior week. Thus far in Q4 Earnings Season, 52 constituents have reported of which 38 (73%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago, which is an above average pace. For the Econ Baro today we’ve the January read of Consumer Confidence.

Gold, having settled Friday at 4983, gapped higher to begin the week in opening at 5013 and since has traded to as high as 5108; Silver has reached 109.32. The Gold Update underscores the overvaluation fundamentally and technically for the precious metals, whilst nonetheless maintaining our Gold target for this year of 5546. Presently, the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all are above today’s Neutral Zones; within same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: the Bond is -1^17 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.005 points below same, Gold +653 points above, Oil +2.83 points above, and the Spoo -71 points below valuation. In “shutdown” arrears for the Econ Baro we’ve November’s Durable Orders.

Presently we’ve the Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are Gold, Silver and the Spoo; BEGOS Market’s volatility is again light-to-moderate. Milestones on tap: Gold 5000 (record high this morning 4970) and Silver 100 (record high this morning 99.40). The S&P 500’s “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 64.4x. Tomorrow’s 845th consecutive edition of The Gold Update (milestones made or not) shall nonetheless continue to celebrate the amazing run of the precious metals, albeit we’ll again caution valuation as having become quite upside extreme, (although certainly not as much as is the S&P). Too, we’ll make mention of December inflation as some metrics (CPI) in “shutdown” arrears have finally been reported. The Econ Baro concludes the week with the revised look at the UofM Sentiment Survey. And with some 10% of S&P constituents having thus far reported earnings for Q4, some 76% of those have bettered their bottom line of Q4 a year ago; but by the aforementioned P/E, the overall level of earnings remains tellingly weak relative to the price of the Index.

Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility has slowed a bit from recent days, thus far looking light-to-moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three through yesterday are — on a 10-test basis — Gold’s 12hr Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 4hr Price Oscillator, and Silver’s 4hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis ’tis the Swiss Franc across the board by the 2hr Price Oscillator, 4hr Moneyflow and 4hr MACD. The P/E of the S&P 500 settled last evening at a whopping 63.7x; the yield is 1.156%; (the 3mo T-Bill annualized is 3.588%). The Econ Baro looks in “shutdown” arrears to Personal Income/Spending along with the attendant “Fed-favoured” PCE data; too, in arrears, shall be what is being termed a “revision” to Q3 GDP and its Chain Deflator.

Gold records yet another All-Time High this morning at 4891 and is above its Neutral Zone for today as are both the Bond and Spoo; the Swiss Franc is below same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate, Gold being the exception with a 142% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday, both Gold and Silver, along with the Euro and Swiss Franc, moved and settled above their most volume-dominant Market Profile levels. Gold in real-time at 4845 is +446 points “high” above its smooth valuation like (see Market Values), of note, Silver at present is just mildly lower today at 94.45, whereas Gold is +1.7%. Scheduled for the Econ Baro are December’s Housing Starts/Permits, plus purportedly in “shutdown” arrears Construction Spending for both September and October.