We were wrong about the Fed, it having cut its Funds Rates -50bp rather than by our -25bp assertion; and as is our wont, when we’re flat out wrong, we fess up; (more on the Fed in Saturday’s upcoming edition of The Gold Update). At present, the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil and the Spoo all are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility looks to be fully robust by session’s end. As to current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the most so is positive between Oil and the Spoo; (we view such correlations as important for hedging between two markets). The Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics that include September’s Philly Fed Index, August’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, plus Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
Mark
18 September 2024 – 08:21 Central Euro Time
We’ve at present the Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, there are four to currently highlight on a 10-test basis: Oil’s 2hr Price Oscillator, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 1hr MACD; for the 24-test basis, the one standout is the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro we await August’s Housing Start/Permits. And ’tis “Fed Day”, the FOMC releasing its Policy Statement at 18:00 GMT: our assertion is a -25bp FedFunds cut from the present 5.25%-5.50% target range to 5.00%-5.25%; similarly priced in for that now are the October FedFundsFutures.
17 September 2024 – 08:22 Central Euro Time
At present all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is quite light ahead of a bevy of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, namely September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus July’s Business Inventories. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve: the Bond better than +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.12 points “high”, Gold +112 points “high”, Oil -5.11 points “low” and the Spoo +200 points “high”. The best current directional correlation amongst those five is positive between the Euro and Gold. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from October into that for November. And the FOMC begins its two-day meeting.
16 September 2024 – 08:16 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all begin the week at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update highlight’s the yellow metal’s fresh All-Time High and the comparably firmness of moneyflow into the Gold’s futures contracts year-to-date; wariness however is cited as the a dearth of trading volume leading to these most recent highs per the Market Profile; the Update also reiterates our sense that the FOMC on Wednesday shall vote for just a -25bp (not -50bp) FedFunds rate reduction, especially given the upticks in August’s inflation measures. The Spoo’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for December. And the Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.
13 September 2024 – 08:16 Central Euro Time
Gold both yesterday and today has recorded its first All-Time Highs since last so doing on 20 August (then 2570), the newest high now 2599. Gold at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as is the Bond and Swiss Franc; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Values (in real-time) Gold is +102 points above its smooth valuation line; more of course in tomorrow’s 774th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500’s four-day rally (which would start toward a fifth day given at present the Spoo’s price vis-à-vis fair value) has pushed the “live” P/E up to a futs-adj’d reading of 41.7x. The Econ Baro concludes its week with September’s UofM Sentiment Survey along with August’s Ex/Im Prices.
12 September 2024 – 08:20 Central Euro Time
Gold, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (as anticipated in Tuesday’s note) confirmed dropping below their 0% axis, the linreg having rotated from positive to negative; similar is the case for the Euro, whereas that for Oil has been negative for some seven weeks. Looking at Market Profiles, the current prices of the Bond, Gold and Silver are all very near their most commonly traded levels of the past fortnight. And for the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include August’s wholesale inflation via the PPI, plus the month’s Treasury Deficit.
11 September 2024 – 08:17 Central Euro Time
At present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. Oil yesterday traded down to a 16-month low (65.27). By Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis for pure swing consistency, we’ve for the Bond both its 6hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, plus the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Price Oscillator. Market correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have deteriorated such that currently ’tis “each market for itself” rather than any notable continuity pairings (positive or negative). The Econ Baro looks to retail inflation via August’s CPI.
10 September 2024 – 08:18 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility to this point across the BEGOS spectrum is quite light, with nothing due for the Econ Baro. With respect to yesterday’s +1.2% gain for the S&P 500, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points comparatively gained just +0.4%: such weakness ought bring further near-term selling for the Index itself. Too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time down to teasing the 0% axis: confirmation of penetrating that axis to the downside shall mean the linreg trend having rotated from positive to negative. Today’s EDTR (see market Ranges) for the Spoo is 80 points. As for Market Rhythm pure swing consistency, currently the best for the Spoo on a 10-test basis is its daily MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis its daily Parabolics. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the S&P is 39.9x.
09 September 2024 – 08:16 Central Euro Time
The week begins finding only Silver and Oil are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst above are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update notes the stodgy state of late for the yellow metal, but the broader outlook by trend firmly positive. Oil on Friday traded below (to 67.17) last December’s low (of 67.71): by Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is -9.01 points below its smooth valuation line, the lowest divergence in at least a year; too, Oil remains the sole BEGOS component with a negative linreg (see Market Trends), although — save for the Swiss Franc — the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other markets. The Econ Baro starts its week with July’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.