Mark

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Silver, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. In a microcosm of last Friday’s S&P plunge, yesterday saw 18 hours worth of Spoo gains then fully evaporate in just four hours: the S&P 500 sellers are quite quick to exit each time the Index runs out of puff; again, mind the S&P MoneyFlow page. Gold is becoming ever-more overbought both by Fair Value and BEGOS Value: the latter measure (in real-time) finds the yellow metal +506 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The StateSide government shutdown continues: due today for the Econ Baro are nine metrics, albeit we’ll likely only receive three: October’s Philly Fed Index and NABH Housing Index, plus September’s Treasury Budget, look to be the only arrivés, whilst left on the shelf shall be data points for September’s wholesale inflation and Retail Sales, August’s Business Inventories, and the prior week’s Jobless Claims.

Save for Oil, all seven other BEGOS Markets are presently above their respective Neutral Zone for today, (Oil being within same), and session volatility is moderate. Concern lies with the S&P’s MoneyFlow (see our page thereto) as despite the Index having come off Friday’s low, the Flow is net negative, certainly so on our five-day measure. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three are (on a 10-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow, the same measure for Gold, and the Bond’s 15mn parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve again Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow, Copper’s 15mn MACD and Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow; (note: our S&P MoneyFlow calculation is comprehensively different from the “canned” study we use for the futures markets). Whilst the StateSide Senate could not receive enough votes last evening to end the “shutdown”, the Econ Baro still looks today to October’s NY State Empire Index, (which of course is Fed-generated rather than by a government entity). Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

Gold is the only BEGOS Market at present inside of today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc, with the balance below same; session volatility is mostly robust. Gold earlier this morning touched another All-Time High at 4191, but has since given back the sessions. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are dropping so swiftly (following Friday’s technical damage) that the 21-day linreg trend looks to rotate from positive to negative within the next few days; by its Market Profile, the Spoo’s more volume-dominant resistors are 6671, 6695, 6708 and 6737; there is a wee bit of volume support at 6595; indeed the current volatility for the S&P is creating fragility, and we still sense lower levels in the offing; the Spoo’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 74 points. Again nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro, (the StateSide government “shutdown” notwithstanding); and financials begin populating Q3 Earnings Season.

Gold has tapped yet another All-Time High this morning at 4097; The Gold Update cites price as continuing to look good going forward, but that more immediately ’tis extremely high above its smooth valuation line (in real-time now +391 points “high”; see Market Values); Silver has not followed with an all-time high thus far today. Too, the missive supports a firm case for a significant correction in the S&P 500, which in six hours on Friday gave back a full month’s worth of gains; however, the Spoo is very strong this morning such that the S&P (at this moment) would open +81 points higher (+1.2%), fears over the “Trump n’ China” tariffs concern be somewhat allayed. Presently, all three elements of the Metal Triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones, as too are Oil and the Spoo; below same are the Bond and Swiss Franc, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. Nothing is due until Wednesday for the Econ Baro, which to date in October is missing 11 of the 16 metrics thus far due as the StateSide “shutdown” continues. Q3 earnings Season picks up its pace this week, notably with financial entities reporting.

Presently we’ve Copper below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Spot Silver has briefly traded above 50, however by CME GLOBEX, yesterday’s December cac high was 49.97 — regardless, an all-time high — and the high thus far today lower however at 47.915. Gold high-to-low yesterday dropped -120 points (-2.9%) its eight-worst intra-day loss by points century-to-date: we’ve of late regularly been citing Gold’s excessively high price vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value, so ’tis no surprise (indeed expected) seeing price retreat; even at that, Gold in real-time is still +299 points above its smooth valuation line; more on it all in tomorrow’s 830th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The P/E of the S&P 500 may exceed 50x as the day unfolds; (marked by fair value to the futs, ’tis 49.9x at the moment). For the Econ Baro we’ve the UofM Sentiment Survey for October, and purportedly late in the session September’s Treasury Budget, (the Treasury Department does operate under “shutdown” conditions).

Copper is presently the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again moderate. Silver yesterday traded above 49 for the first time in better than 14 years; currently ’tis 48.63; Gold traded yesterday to an All-Time High at 4081. Too, the S&P 500 reached a record high 6756, the Spoo itself attaining the 6808 level. By Market Trends: Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all in 21-day linreg uptrends; the balance of the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil are in like downtrends. Gold is now +382 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and the Spoo is +141 points above same, both markets severely stretched to the upside. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from November into that for December. And the two unlikely-to-be-reported metrics due for the Econ Baro are the prior week’s Jobless Claims and August’s Wholesale Inventories as the StateSide gov’t shutdown continues.

Gold, having yesterday achieved 4000, has since risen today to as high as 4059; Silver however has not kept pace, “stuck” to a degree in the 47s and 48s, the Gold/Silver ratio in turn having risen from the 81s to nearly the 84s (its current real-time reading 83.7x). All three elements of the Metal Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones (even as the Dollar strengthens, reminding us that “Gold plays no currency favourites”), and the two EuroCurrencies are below their Neutral Zones; BEGOS Market’s volatility is moderate. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have marginally been slipping below their key +80% axis since Friday, and price seemingly is losing its rampant upward push: the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 49.1x, and the Index is now 21 trading days (one full month) “textbook overbought”. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; late in the session come the Minutes from the FOMC’s 16/17 meeting.

Gold (by its December “front month” contract) at 00:28 this morning touched 4000 for the first time. Price has since come off and is now inside of today’s Neutral Zone (3999-3970), as too are the Bond, Silver Oil and the Spoo; Copper is above its Neutral Zone, and below same are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is its 2hr Moneyflow, whilst for a profit-target basis/swing (per the Market Rhythms page) is its 12hr Moneyflow, (wherein a minimum of 29 points have been gained through the last 10 swings inclusive). Cautionarily, the yellow metal settled last evening +131 points above its Market Magnet, and is (in real-time) +337 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Due today for the Econ Baro — but unlikely to be reported given the ongoing StateSide gov’t closure — is August’s Trade Deficit; then late in the session we’ve August’s Consumer Credit. Q3 Earnings Season has commenced with just one report (STZ) … which beat estimates … but its earnings were less than a year ago, (same old Wall Street game). Mind our Earnings Season page throughout the ensuing days and weeks.

The Gold Update officially recognizes the yellow metal as having achieved, indeed surpassed, our measure of its Fair Value: congrats to Gold! Presently, both Gold and Silver are higher today, above their Neutral Zones as are Oil and the Spoo; below same are the Bond and EuroCurrencies, and BEGOS Markets volatility is session moderate-to-robust. By Market Values in real-time, Gold shows as +315 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo too is +140 points above same, both markets currently in extreme, technically overbought states. ‘Tis a very light data week for the Econ Baro given just six metrics being due: with the ongoing StateSide government shutdown, actual reports may be less, (none are scheduled for today). And Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.

Both Silver and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Amongst the correlations of our five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between Oil and the Spoo. The S&P 500 continues its streak of being “textbook overbought” now through the past 18 trading sessions; (‘twould be of note to see the “live” P/E surpass the 50x level: futs-adj’d, ’tis 49.5x at the moment). The Spoo (currently 6784) shows Market Profile support at the volume-dominant levels of 6765, 6752, 6737, 6722, and most notably across the past fortnight at 6710. As the StateSide government remains shutdown, we don’t expect September’s Payrolls to arrive today for the Econ Baro; however due, too, is the ISM(Svc) Index.

Copper is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is not quite yet moderate. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 49.8x, the Index recording yet another record high. Gold yesterday found its way also to another All-Time High at 3923. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our current Top Three on a 10-test basis are the Swiss Franc’s 2hr MACD, the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics, and Copper’s 2hr Moneyflow; on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 4hr MACD, Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 14mn Price Oscillator. Metrics due today for the Econ Baro include August’s Factory Orders, however given the StateSide gov’t shutdown, such report likely shan’t be released.

The Bond, Copper and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro and Swiss Franc, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. Gold has again set an All-Time High at 3904, and Silver has reached up to 47.83 so far this session. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have dropped (in real-time) to their key +80% axis: a settle below that border regularly dictates lower prices near-term; the S&P 500 itself saw its P/E settle yesterday at 49.0x, albeit with the Spoo trading lower this morning, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at the moment is 48.7x; the S&P is now 16 consecutive sessions “textbook overbought” and the yield a wee 1.164%, (that for “risk-free” three-month annualized T-Bill yield is 3.845%). The Econ Baro looks to September’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus August’s Construction Spending (not reported due to U.S. government shutdown).

Gold at 00:05 GMT this morning reached its Dollar debasement value of 3865, moving further up to (thus far) as high as 3899; this is the first time since 2011 that price has (as graphically portrayed each Saturday in The Gold Update’s Scoreboard) exceeded its Dollar debasement value; the yellow metal is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above, obviously) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets otherwise is light. In real-time, Gold (3892) by Market Values is +314 points above its smooth valuation line; by its Market Profile, Gold’s nearest volume-dominant support price area is 3856-3854. Go Gold! albeit as we’ve written of late, price is very extended to the upside, and now certainly so in exceeding its Dollar debasement value; to be sure, geopolitical sensitivity is for the moment supporting price. For the Econ Baro today we’ve September’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

The week begins finding Gold trading ever closer (its high thus far today 3849) to its Dollar debasement value (3865). At present, every BEGOS Market is higher, with seven of the eight (save for Oil) above their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update notably finds Silver leading the BEGOS Markets Standings, price +58.3% year-to-date, and even more so as of today by the white metal having moved up into the 47s; (Silver’s all-time high was back on 25 April 2011 at 49.82); too, we’re a bit concerned over Gold becoming excessively stretched to the upside, in real-time now +281 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Spoo is higher such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould so do +0.4%. 13 Econ Baro metrics are due this week, starting today with August’s Pending Home Sales.

Silver presently is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again light with August’s “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation gauge in the balance. Silver traded yesterday to as high as 45.50, a better than 14-year high: the white metal now easily leads the BEGOS components year-to-date standings as we’ll present in tomorrow’s 828th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Stocks took a bit of a jolt yesterday on an unusually strong revision to finalize Q2’s GDP — perhaps putting into question another Fed rate cut — the S&P 500 nonetheless coming well off its intraday low (6569) in settling at 6605. Looking at correlations for our five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Bond and the Euro. In addition to the PCE, other Econ Baro metrics today of course include August’s Personal Income/Spending.

Copper, for which yesterday’s +4.0% net gain ranked fourth-best year-to-date, is higher again this morning and is the only BEGOS Market presently outside of its Neutral Zone; overall session volatility is again light. The pricing for the Spoo may be quite contained from now to tomorrow’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data for August; nonetheless, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d P/E 48.6x. Both Precious Metals have cooled a bit from their highs of Tuesday; still, Gold notably in real-time is +244 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and by its Market Profile, Gold shows its most dominant volume support at 3719. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales, along with the final read for Q2 GDP.

Our two EuroCurrencies are the only BEGOS Markets presently outside (both below) today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility continues light, and by Market Ranges, save for the two precious metals, EDTRs remain relatively subdued. Our Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are on a 10-test basis the Euro’s 1hr Moneyflow, the Spoo’s 4hr Parabolics, and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr MACD; on a 24-test basis they are Silver’s 4hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow. The Swiss Franc (1.2739) is by its Market Profile in real-time on its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight: overhead resistance by same is 1.2840 and support 1.2700. Despite yesterday’s -0.6% S&P 500 pullback, the breadth was positive (55%/44%), indicative of the largest mkt cap constituents driving the downside bus. The Econ Baro awaits August’s New Home Sales.

New highs continue to be recorded for both Gold (3795 thus far today) and the S&P 500 (6699 yesterday). At present, Copper is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and session volatility to this hour is again light. Silver has today reached thus far up to 44.42, a level last traded on 03 May 2011; yet, the white metal still remains attractive vis-à-vis the level of the yellow metal given the Gold/Silver ratio of 85.8x bein well above its century-to-date average of 69.3x; Silver’s volume-dominant Market Profile support ranges from 42.65 down to 41.65; but by its Market Magnet, Silver’s settle last evening (44.32) finds it quite stretched at +1.85 points above that metric (see our Silver page). The Econ Baro starts its week today with Q2’s Current Account Deficit.

Gold, Silver and Oil all are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights both the yellow metal and S&P 500 making record highs, albeit prices are quite stretched near-term for Gold and broadly so for the S&P; the P/E of the latter in real-time (adjusted for the futs) is 48.6x. At Market Trends, only Oil is in negative linreg; however the “Baby Blues for the seven other BEGOS components are rolling over to the downside, (save barely those for the Spoo, but look poised to so do). Regardless, Gold just printed a fresh All-Time High as we type at 3748, (the previous being 3744 this past Wednesday). Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a moderate load of incoming metrics as the week unfolds, the highlight being Friday’s release for August of the “Fed-favoured” PCE data.

The S&P 500 is at an all-time closing high (6632) following yesterday’s all-time intraday high (6657). The Spoo however is weaker this morning (6687) and presently below its Neutral Zone for today, as are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Oil; above same is Silver, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between Gold and Oil. Gold, after reaching another All-Time High this past Wednesday (3744) is by its daily technicals showing the earliest signs of perhaps some price pullback: more on that in tomorrow’s 827th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) just confirmed a sell signal last evening, the level of the Blues having settled below the key +80% level. The Econ Baro is quiet today following a rather choppy week of 14 incoming metrics.

Moving on from the Fed’s “non-event” -25bp Funds rate reduction, we’ve at present both the Bond and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst all six of the other BEGOS Markets are below same; session volatility is firmly moderate. Specific to the positioning of the five primary BEGOS components vis-à-vis their Market Values in real-time: the Bond is 1^15 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro basically in sync with its valuation line, Gold +208 points “high”, Oil -1.17 points “low, and the Spoo +165 points “high”. Yesterday the S&P 500 posted a second consecutive down day for just the second time across the past 18 trading sessions, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 47.5x. And the Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics that include September’s Philly Fed index and August’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The Swiss Franc and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the Top Three are all for the Spoo as follows: 4hr Parabolics, 30mn Moneyflow, and 15mn Parabolics; for the 24-test basis we’ve again the Spoo’s 30mn Moneyflow, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 30mn MACD, and Silver’s 4hr MACD. Gold yesterday registered another All-Time High at 3740, but as noted, the metals are coming off so far today. The S&P 500 remains “textbook overbought”. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Housing Starts/Permits. Then at 18:00 GMT we’ve the Policy Statement from the FOMC incorporating a -25bp reduction in the Funds rate.

The EuroCurrencies and the Spoo are presently above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. To be sure, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are now in a fifth trading day of ascent after having declined (as herein written) the six prior sessions which (save for 02 September) essentially found price on the rise: ’tis unusual, that, which is why our deMeadville analytics ought always be judged in context with one’s own financial assessments of trend, etc.; indeed the 21-day linreg trend of the Spoo has been positive from 29 April-to-date. The S&P 500 itself now sports a “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 47.3x, the Index as well characterized as “extremely textbook overbought”. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from October into that for both November and December. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil, plus July’s Business Inventories.

The Bond begins the week at present below its Neutral Zone for today; Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The Gold Update details the yellow metal having achieved a run in less than one year of ten +100-point milestones, the most recent of course being 3700 this past Tuesday; too is stressed the massive overvaluation of the S&P 500 and the notion of it perhaps nearing a crash as Gold gets the cash. That stated, the S&P 500’s MoneyFlow (per our page) is very supportive of the Index’s ascent, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E in real-time is 46.7x. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from September into December. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 14 incoming metrics scheduled, beginning today with September’s NY State Empire Index. Wednesday is the week’s centerpiece of the FOMC vote to reduce the Funds rate by -25bp, an event which already has been “priced-in” to the S&P time and again.

Record highs were recorded yesterday for both the Spoo (6600) and the S&P 500 itself (6593), even as retail inflation via headline CPI doubled its pace from from July’s +0.2% to now +0.4% for August; the month’s core pace was maintained at +0.3%, still ahead of the Fed’s desired 2% annualized target. Although September is notoriously known for being the year’s poorest S&P month, through its eight trading days-to-date ’tis +2.0%. This morning presently finds all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate above today’s respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best correlation currently is negative between the Euro and Oil. Currencies’ cac volume is rolling today from September into that for December. The Econ Baro finishes its somewhat negative week with September’s UofM Sentiment Survey. And tomorrow’s 826th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall of course feature price having tapped the 3700 level.

The Bond is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again light. Yesterday’s +0.3% gain in the S&P 500 was (by moneyflow regressed into S&P points) solely due to one stock, ORCL, which gained 36%; otherwise, the S&P’s breadth was negative (201 up, 301 down, 1 unch). Came too a deflationary PPI read for August (-0.1%) albeit as volatile as is that series, a better read ought be by today’s CPI report. Market Values’ excesses of note include (in real-time) the Bond as +2 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, Gold as +259 points “high” and the Spoo as +104 points “high”; obviously by our “textbook technicals”, the S&P is “overbought”. In addition to retail inflation for the Econ Baro, included late in the session is August’s Treasury Budget.

Gold, after achieving yet another All-Time High yesterday (3715) is at present (3681) above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light with key inflation data pending these next two days. The S&P 500, whilst not exceeding its all-time intraday high (6533 last Friday), settled yesterday at an all-time closing high of 6513. For the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having in real-time stopped their descent; however that doesn’t preclude significant market downside it being September and the S&P “priced to perfection” incorporating a Fed rate cut. Still as noted, the final two pieces in the Fed’s inflation puzzle come today via August’s PPI which spiked in July, and tomorrow for the CPI which may well be upwardly affected by the July PPI as it leads the CPI by a month. Mind the Econ Baro.

Oil is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Gold’s run of All-Time Highs is furthering itself, trading thus far up to 3699; Silver is lagging in price, albeit is still north of 40 having reached 42.07 in this session, (Monday’s high having been 42.36). At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil for which its 21-day linreg trend is flat, all other seven BEGOS components are in uptrends; however specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are (in real-time) falling for a sixth consecutive trading day as such uptrend becomes less positive; too by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +101 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Specific to the S&P 500 itself, its futs-adj’d P/E is 44.7x and the yield 1.190%; the “risk-free” annualized 3-month T-Bill’s yield compared at 3.928%. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

Presently, both Copper and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update notes yet another All-Time High for the yellow metal (3656) from Friday, price having modestly come off a bit today (3634); however by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +241 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; still per Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” (as too are those for Silver) of linreg consistency continue to climb. The Economic highlights of an otherwise fairly quiet week for the Econ Baro are Wednesday’s PPI for August and CPI on Thursday: we’ll see if July’s PPI inflation spike leads into a higher CPI for August. Else, the poor employment data as detailed in The Gold Update certainly secures a Fed rate cut come 17 September. Late in today’s session we’ve July’s Consumer Credit.

Basis the Spoo (6527) adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 would open at an all-time high come 13:30 GMT, given yesterday’s poor ADP data “ensuring” a Fed rate cute (17 Sep). At present, the Spoo is above its Neutral Zone for today, as the other BEGOS Markets, save for the Swiss Franc and Oil being within same; session volatility is light-to-moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is +0^28 “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro essentially in sync with its valuation line, Gold +225 points “high”, Oil -2.30 points “low” and the Spoo +137 points “high”. Is Gold again getting ahead of itself? More on that in tomorrow’s 825th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. In the interim, the Econ Baro awaits August’s payrolls data, wherein we’ll see if bad continues to be good for the S&P.

Each element of the Metals Triumvirate is presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, noting that Gold — after having traded yesterday up to another All-Time High at 3640 — has today already traced 106% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Currently 3592, Gold is (in real-time)+210 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are in real-time falling for a third consecutive session. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our current leaders are the Spoo’s 60mn Price Oscillator, and both Copper’s 2hr Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics; for the 24-test basis they are the Euro’s 1hr MACD, plus Silver’s Parabolics on both the 4hr and 6hr timeframes. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include (ahead of tomorrow’s key Labor report) August’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, July’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

We’ve presently the Bond, Copper and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate; watch over the ensuing days our Market Ranges page for EDTRs to expand. The Spoo yesterday recovered the bulk of its intra-session loss; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropped as they are further so doing in real-time today: this is indicatively leading of the uptrend beginning a rotation from positive to negative perhaps during the course of next week; see our post yesterday on “X” ( @deMeadvillePro ) as to how low the S&P looks to go. Gold continues its run of All-Time Highs, thus far today reaching 3617, albeit today Silver has not been participating with Copper as noted being down. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s Factory Orders; then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, Gold having furthered its All-Time High to 3578 and Silver having traded up to one pip below 42.000 at 41.995; also above its Neutral Zone is Oil and the Bond is below same; volatility for the combined two days is largely robust, albeit the Spoo has been the least rangy of the bunch in tracing only 53% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) given the absence of the S&P 500 not trading yesterday. As stocks commence their historically-worst month, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 44.7x and by Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) +101 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro begins its week with August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.

Gold starts September with a fresh All-Time High up to 3554; The Gold Update emphasizes Silver’s recent run, price this morning up to as high as 41.64. Both precious metals along with Copper, the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present all above today’s Neutral Zones; the Bond is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust into what is a two-day session given the StateSide holiday. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best correlation remains positive between the Euro and Gold.  Staggered holiday halts (save for the EuroCurrencies) begin from 17:00 GMT, the all-in Tuesday session resuming across the board at 22:00 GMT.

At present we’ve Copper above its Neutral Zone for today; all the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is expectedly light ahead of July’s PCE data which shall be a key determinant (12:30 GMT) as to the FOMC’s 17 September rate decision. A reduced “core” reading of +0.2% ought spike the Spoo to still further record levels, whereas a +0.4% would initiate selling; consensus calls for +0.3%. The S&P 500 yesterday settled above 6500 (6501.86) for its first time, albeit the MoneyFlow for the session actually was negative, (see S&P MoneyFlow); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is now 46.0x. Silver seems to be making a bid to trade at $40/oz., a level not seen since 21 September 2022: indeed, Silver’s “high if an up day” for this session is 40.26; either way, more on Silver in tomorrow’s 824th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. In addition to the PCE, the Econ Baro also awaits July’s Personal Income/Spending, plus August’s Chi PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey.

Both the Bond and Silver are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-best basis all pertain to the Swiss Franc: its 15mn MACD, 15mn Moneyflow and 30mn Parabolics; on a 24-test basis the leaders are currently again the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow, plus the Bond’s 30mn MACD and Gold’s 6hr parabolics. The shorter time frames of these leading Rhythms reflect the narrowing EDTRs (see Market Ranges) of late as the “Dog Days of August” wind down before what we see as a chaotic September in the offing, especially with respect to extreme equities’ overvaluation and a return to reality. Amongst today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics are July’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q2 GDP.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none the the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s 27-point gain in the S&P 500 was almost all NVDA (in regressing its moneyflow contribution into S&P points): in other words had the stock been “unch”, too would have been the S&P; NVDA is currently 7.791% of the S&P with a market cap 52x its balance sheet net worth; whilst we’re really not stocks-specific, ’tis well known the company’s earnings are released post-session today, just as Friday shall have all eyes on the “Fed-favoured” PCE for July. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 45.8x and the yield 1.197%. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

The Bond at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is moderate, with Gold notably active having already traced 94% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) before having now returned to its Neutral Zone. The Bond’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) has provisionally rotated from positive to negative, in line with increasing inflation concerns such that there is no guarantee of a 17 September FedFunds rate cut, (between now and then there being the PCE, PPI and CPI). At Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve no extreme deviations. Copper’s cac volume has rolled from September into that for December; following suit over the next day or two shall be Silver and the Bond. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Consumer Confidence and July’s Durable Orders.

In commencing the week we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having just recorded its narrowest trading week of the year-to-date, even in the euphoria of an “assumed” FedFunds cut come 17 September, our stance to which is far more skeptical as inflation seemingly is increasing: next Friday’s PCE report for July may instill discouragement for the S&P which rallied last week to within two points (6479) of the all-time high (6481). ‘Tis a fairly busy week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with July’s New Home Sales.

Presently we find the Euro along with Gold below their respective Neutral Zones for today, the Dollar continuing to get a bid throughout the week; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, and volatility — not surprisingly ahead of the FedChair’s address (14:00 ET) — is quite light. Equities may not take kindly to lack of affirmation for a FedFunds rate cut; clearly July’s PPI spike is an inflationary concern upon which we’ll again address in tomorrow’s 823rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Should the S&P 500 “let go” over the ensuing trading days, there is a structural support “island” spanning from 6059 down to 5767, the mid-point of which is 5913; instead should the FedChair put a rate cut on the table, we’d expect the S&P to resume rallying. The Econ Baro concluded its week yesterday, as posted on its page.

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is very light. Despite the S&P 500 having made “lower lows” for three days in a row, the Index nonetheless remains technically “textbook overbought”, and obviously by any fundamental yardstick, dangerously overvalued, the fut’s-adj “live” P/E now 44.8x. Do mind an eye on the S&P MoneyFlow page: the outflow in recent days has been notably larger than the decline in the Index itself, the cumulative regressed differential for the past five sessions being -282 more flow points than actual S&P points lost; again, this is a valued leading indicator for lower levels ahead. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is currently positive between the Euro and Gold. And the Econ Baro concludes its own week today with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index, plus July’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Presently, only the Spoo is outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets to this time of day remains lights. Ahead of the “Friday Fed”, the S&P 500 is seemingly a bit worried of a rate cut not being soon on the table, unless July’s PPI spike was a “one-off”; the Spoo (6417) has found its Market Profile support area ’round 6414 basically holding; should 6400 break, the next volume-supportive area is 6372-6368. By our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the best on a 10-test basis are currently the Bond’s 30mn Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s daily Price Oscillator and Silver’s 4hr MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator, the Bond’s 15mn MACD and Oil’s 8hr MACD. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro; then late in the session we’ve the FOMC’s Minutes from its 29-30 July meeting.