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The Gold Update: No. 820 – (02 August 2025) – “Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 820th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 02 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate“

As you studied aficionados of deMeadville well know, we refer to those BEGOS Markets comprising Gold, Silver and Copper as “The Metals Triumvirate”.  And lately, turbulent indeed has been its components’ price paths:

  • Gold from 23 July through 30 July fell by as much as -5.4%;
  • Silver from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -9.1%;
  • Copper from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -27.3% (ain’t no typo).

Then specific to the week just past, Silver had no net weekly gain, and worse, “economy-leading, but now tariff-butt-kicked” Copper had no hope, period.

However, Gold was a gainer, its December contract settling yesterday (Friday) at 3416 for an actual net weekly advance of +0.7% (+23 points).  Gold’s so-called “continuous contract” gained +2.3% (+78 points) given +54 points of fresh price premium per the August contract having rolled forward to December.

Thus, this being a graphics-rich “end-of-month, plus-a-day” edition of The Gold Update, let’s get going with the yellow metal’s weekly bars by the continuous contract from one year ago-to-date, highlighted by a second week of the fresh parabolic Long trend.  The run from here to the All-Time High (3510 on 22 April) is another +2.8% (+94 points).  And as we detailed a week ago, given recent parabolic Long trend history, that is reasonably within range during this stint:

As for Sister Silver — sadly donned in her industrial metal jacket — she was pulled down in sympathy with Cousin Copper’s colossal collapse, the Gold/Silver ratio in turn leaping from 87.1x just a week ago to now 92.1x (as above depicted).  Surely Silver shall swiftly come to her senses and re-don her precious metal pinstripes.  Either way, she’s had an amazing year-to-date, second only to Gold as we turn to our BEGOS Markets Standings.  Think things are uncertain out there?  Look at the top three podium positions:

Indeed for the precious metals at large, “Up!” has been “It!”  From this time a year ago-to-date, here we’ve the following percentage tracks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) +22%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +27%, Newmont (NEM) +32%, Gold itself +37%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) both +42%, and ever-amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +67%.  Is livin’ with equities’ leverage your favourite beverage?  Per the “It All Depends From Where You Start Dept.”, Gold itself has been the Big Winner from 2020-to-date:  +124%; the balance of the equities bunch then range from +103% for AEM down to +14% for PAAS … just in case yer scorin’ at home.  Here’s the year-over-year graphic:

As entitled, “turbulence” has characterized The Metals Triumvirate of late.  ‘Tis starkly evident here in going ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets.  Each frame depicts that market’s last 21 trading days (one month), grey trendline and “Baby Blues”, the directionally-leading dots which define the trendline’s day-to-day consistency.  Specific to the metals’ turbulence, Gold has well-recovered most of its recent plunge; but not so Silver, nor clearly Copper.  However:  we see the biggest story therein as the S&P 500 (“SPOO”).  We’ve purposefully re-coloured several of its blue dots in red, as when they fall (from above the +80% area), we anticipate lower prices.  And akin to Copper, that’s one heckova long-anticipated S&P “Whoopsie!” in the lower righthand panel:

“But was yesterday just a one-day wonder-plunge for the S&P, mmb?”

Squire, if the market is at long-last coming to its senses, en route to reverting to important means — be they fundamental, technical or quantitative — no ’twas not a one-day wonder.  As posted only internally for deMeadville on Thursday evening, (the S&P then 6339 and now 6238):

  • “IF this is the beginning of the broad correction, the initial fib golden ratio retracement (basis today’s high to April’s low) is down to 5861; then the mid-point is 5673; then the full golden ratio retracement is to 5485.  Retracement to the top of the  55-year regression channel is  4513.  And retracement to the top of the “had covid never happened” regression channel is 2941.”

But that boldly stated, you know how this market behaves in The Investing Age of Stoopid:   “Earnings mean nothing, stocks always triple, buy every dip!”

“You always go on about ‘earnings mean nothing’, mmb…”

And here is why, Squire.  Look at the ongoing Q2 Earnings Season, (with two weeks to run in the balance).  80% of the S&P 500 reporting constituents have beaten the investment banker’s marketing tool known as “estimates”.  Yeah, ok, so that’s cute.  But comparatively, only 65% have actually done better year-over-year, which is a slightly below average pace.  That never gets any notice.  And with the honestly-calculated “live” P/E of the S&P now 46.5x but hardly any dividend yield (1.233%) versus “risk-free” (gulp!) short-term U.S. dough paying 4.182%, the problem is obvious:  the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is not sustainable for price.  Period.  We’ve been through this before — and barring Stoopid continuing to prevail — here it comes again.  For whenever the next material correction does come, the fear factor shall be massive:  “But, we were never taught about ‘selling’!”  Have the popcorn ready.

Moving on to the Federal Reserve, when was the last time you read dissent into the foot of the Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement?  Oh to be sure, there’s been some minor disagreement in recent years; but this past Wednesday, both Ms. Bowman and Mr. Waller voted in the minority for a -0.25 basis points reduction in the bank’s Funds Rate, which instead rightly was maintained in the target range of 4.25%-to-4.50%.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s contention is that a rate cut is absolutely necessary because (paraphrasing):  “the economy is strong and inflation is low”.  Having spoken with a number of market mavens ’round here, all agree that opinion makes no economic sense.  Moreover, inflation has reversed its recent pace of slowing and is again growing.  Here’s our June Inflation Summary table, nonetheless noting therein the benign wholesale pace of the Producer Price Index.  Still, “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures ratcheted higher:

 

As to the past week’s biggest surprise, for us ’twas the initial read of Stateside Q2 Gross Domestic Product:  the consensii had it pegged for a +2.5% annualized pace, whereas we wouldn’t have been surprised by a negative pace given both the leading Q2 fallout in the Economic Barometer along with the Conference Board’s lagging report of “Leading Indicators” which hasn’t been positive since last December.  So what happened?  The GDP came in at +3.0%.  To quote John Patrick McEnroe:  “You canNOT be SERious!!”  –[The All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, 22 June, 1981].  Let’s see what the first GDP revision is come 28 August.  Here’s the Baro:

Indeed, of the Baro’s 18 incoming metrics last week, 10 improved period-over-period.  Cursiously though again, July’s ADP Employment creation directionally differed from Labor’s Payrolls.  The former beat consensus and had June favourably revised; the latter missed consensus and had June unfavourably revised.  Reprise:  “It depends thus on who’s counting what.“

What we can count on from week-to-week are the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals.  And next on the left we’ve that for Gold (in December pricing), the present 3416 level being the white bar near the Profile’s center.  But on the right, Silver’s dallying with Copper finds her price (37.11) lower down in the stack.  “C’mon, Sister Silver…”:

Naturally it being month-end, plus one trading day, here is the monthly Gold Structure for the past 15 years.  The rightmost green bar is merely Friday (yesterday) alone, it having been 01 August.  ‘Tis been quite the run for Gold across this time frame, ‘specially after only just two-to-four years ago when Gold’s infamous Triple-Top pricing was “Dancing on the ceiling…”, –[Lionel Richie, ’86]:

Metals turbulence notwithstanding, next week is a bit more benign for the Econ Baro with just eight metrics due, including improved (purportedly) Productivity for Q2.  Are you productively maintaining a sound supply of Gold?

Cheers!

…m…

01 August 2025 – 08:22 Central Euro Time

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The Swiss Franc is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Although the S&P 500 recorded a third consecutive modest down day yesterday, per our page of the Index’s MoneyFlow, such measure remains positively robust, despite our overwhelming sense of a significant correction being nigh. In real-time at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have again broken below the key +80% axis: recall their last so doing (18-22 July) was an unusual “failed signal” for this otherwise reliable leading indicator of near-term market direction. As for correlation within the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is negative between the Euro and Oil. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with July’s Payrolls data, ISM Index and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Construction Spending. And with essentially two weeks remaining in Q2 Earnings Season, S&P 500 year-over-year quarterly improvement is now up to 66%, which is an average rate, the fly in the ointment of course being the harrowingly-high “live” P/E at a futs-adj’d 47.5x.

31 July 2025 – 08:26 Central Euro Time

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Copper is further falling this morning: netting a loss yesterday of -18.3% following tariff implications, the red metal is now down an additional -5.1%, obviously below its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn of the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: we’ve the Bond basically in sync with its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.026 points “low”, Gold as -13 points “low”, Oil as +1.84 points “high”, and the Spoo as +258 points “high”; the S&P 500 itself is now 26 consecutive days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d P/E now a whopping 48.0x. ‘Tis a key inflation day for the Econ Baro featuring for June “Fed-Favoured” PCE data, plus Personal Income/Spending; too due is July’s Chi PMI and Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

30 July 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

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As was the case ’round this hour yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are presently within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is light. By Market Trends, yesterday both Silver and Copper confirmed their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency having fallen below the key +80% such that we anticipate lower prices near-term. Per Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our best on a 10-test basis currently is the Swiss Franc’s 6hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics. The S&P 500 despite yesterday’s mild down session nonetheless recorded a fourth consecutive day as being “extremely textbook overbought”: with so much on the table through the balance of this week, we expect the Index to crack at any time. And today, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ADP Employment data, June’s Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2 GDP, which — give the steep decline in the Baro notably for April and May data — shan’t be up to the +2.5% consensus expectation. Then come 18:00 GMT is the FOMC’s Policy Statement within which there shan’t be a FedFunds’ rate change.

29 July 2025 – 08:27 Central Euro Time

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All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light with 18 Econ Baro metrics plus the FOMC in the balance of the week. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for December with +57 points of fresh premium. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through its last 24 sessions, indeed “extremely” so for the past 3: we sense the Index is very close to a significant correction, especially with all that’s on the able as noted over these next four days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is currently 47.7x and the yield 1.204% vs. the 3-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.235%. The Econ Baro gets its data parade rolling today with July’s Consumer Confidence.

28 July 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

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Presently the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neural Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. The Spoo gapped up some +21 points at the open on tariff resolution: that puts the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at of the S&P at now 47.7x. The Gold Update confirms price’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long, the opening price of the new stint effective this morning’s opening trade at 3321; acknowledged therein is Gold’s negative MACD stance also on the weekly timeframe, but that its performance has been a net failure per the last five signals, whereas the last five parabolic Long trends have been a net success. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 metrics due, however none for this session.

The Gold Update: No. 819 – (26 July 2025) – “Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 819th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell“

We open with both Good News and Bad News for Gold:

The Good News is this past Wednesday at 00:21 GMT, Gold provisionally ended its 10-week parabolic Short spell upon breaking above 3449, confirmation then coming at the (albeit quite a bit lower) 3339 settle yesterday (Friday).

The Bad News is in surpassing 3449 by only a few points to 3452, Gold then fell pell-mell through the week’s balance to as low as 3323 — a three-day -3.7% El Plungo (technical term) of -129 points — en route to the noted 3339 settle.

Thus Gold has begun its new weekly parabolic Long trend by going the wrong way, in turn sporting its sixth worst “points given up” from high to settle of the year’s 30 weeks-to-date.  ‘Twas not a beautiful thAng.  Either way, here year-over-year are Gold’s weekly bars, featuring its fresh rightmost encircled parabolic Long trend blue dot, which in itself always is a beautiful thAng:

‘Course, one trend’s inference is not necessarily that of all measures on the same time frame.  As herein posted in our 28 June missive, we’ve since updated Gold’s weekly bars for these past three calendar years along with the MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) study.  And by that construct, it keeps the “bad idea” of being Short — rather than Long — on the table, given the recent and still ongoing negative MACD crossover.  However, we don’t sense ’tis that worrying:

Nonetheless cited, let’s go the “What To Do? Dept.”  Clearly by Gold’s upward slant across the above graphic, the Long side has been the right side.  ‘Tis easy to prove mathematically:  in purely swinging solely on the Short trends of Gold’s last five weekly MACD negative crossovers, the silly Shorts have amassed a single contract loss of -$57,500; whereas purely swinging on Gold’s last five weekly Parabolic Long trends is a single contract gain of +$69,600.  Reprise:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”  Case closed.

“So because the parabolic trend now is up means another all-time high is coming, right mmb?”

Squire, whilst over time inevitably yes, ’tis hardly “automatic” during this new Long stint.  But we conservatively give it a 60% chance of occurring given the following table’s statistics.  Therein we display the performance of Gold’s last 10 weekly parabolic Long trends.  Bearing in mind that from here at 3339, Gold need gain at least +5.2% on this trend to reach 3511, (the current All-Time High being 3510 since 22 April).  So why a 60% chance of getting there?  In the “Max Gain” column, six of the 10 trends bettered +5.2%.  Further, why “conservatively”?  Because the both the average and median gains of Long trend are basically +10%.  Moreover, solely in that +10% vacuum with durations running 13-15 weeks, November would bring us Gold 3700.  That’s not a predication, rather a reasonable assessment of potential upside range, barring this Long trend becoming Short-lived.  Here’s the table:

And to be sure, there’s a lot on the mid-summer table to affect the price of Gold.  Most imminently, next Wednesday (30 July) brings The Big Double-Whammy of StateSide Q2 Gross Domestic Product followed by the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement.  Then two days hence brings 01 August and the introduction of more “Trump Tariffs!”

Too, there’s this from the “Oh By The Way Dept.”  ‘Tis time for the U.S. Treasury to spritely come up with $7T to pay its noble holders of maturing Bills, Notes and Bonds.  According to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), as of this year’s Q1, operating cash amounted to about $406B, which combined with other monetary assets totaled a tad over $1T for 2024.  Thus by your six-year-old’s first grade arithmetic, the Treasury is about -$6T short of its looming funding requirements.

So who or what is going to buy all this requisite new debt?  Here’s a thought:  remember that (as we herein mathematically constructed) “all” $7T of the COVID monetary “creation” essentially found its way into the S&P 500.  So, why not have the Treasury thus promote a “group sell” of $7T in stocks with the  proceeds moving into debt at its currently attractive rates?  ‘Tis so easy, a WestPalmBeacher can do it.

“But mmb, that might crash the stock market…”

The stock market, Squire, is so overdue for a harrowing crash, be it driven fundamentally, technically and/or quantitatively, a “group sell” to save the U.S. Treasury would be the perfect crash catalyst.

But with respect to Gold (and barring such selling of stocks), should the ensuing Treasury auctions be feeble, ‘twould fall to the Fed being forced to make that next BIG accounting entry to buy up the difference.  And Gold, in turn, would go upside gonzo nuts (again, a technical term).

Speaking of stocks, we’ve run out of ways to indeed express (purposeful repeat) how we’ve run out of ways to describe the LooneyTunes overvaluation of the S&P 500.  During recent years, we’ve herein detailed in-depth (using what is today an unknown science called “math”) sensible scenarios for the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash and the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.  Now let’s add to those the “That’s All, Folks!” crash, wherein upon it all going wrong, the market doesn’t so much crash as instead ’tis just closed, (rather akin to the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash).  Then again the Fed can create the difference and ’tis more upside gonzo nuts for Gold.

As to the current state of the S&P, ’tis now 23 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”, as well as having arrived at our “extremely overbought” classification with a sub-par Q2 Earnings Season in process.  Oh yes, we saw the CNBC[S] end-of-week headline last evening:  “S&P 500 posts fifth straight record close this week, powered by solid earnings”.  Hardly are earnings “solid”.  To wit:

In this era of dumbing-down earnings estimates to dirt, ’tis super easy to beat ’em:  so far for Q2, we’ve 149 S&P 500 constituents having reported, of which 79% have exceeded expectations!  Why typically, only 76% so do!  Sadly however, here’s where the “solid” earnings hocus-pocus loses focus.  In an average Earnings Season,  66% of the constituents improve their bottom lines over the like quarter of a year earlier.  To this point for Q2, such rate has slowed to 63%.  ‘Course that shan’t be on CNBS, Bloomy nor FoxyB.  But ’tis why the following multiple has gone beyond stoopid:

Again, don’t argue nor ask “AI“; just do the math.  And per last week’s piece, yes, we still sense “The Sell” shall be ever-intense.

As to the math that makes up the Economic Barometer, as anticipated, ’twas well ahead of last Monday’s lagging indicator known as the Conference Board’s “Leading Indicators”.  So severe had been June’s Econ Baro plunge, we knew the consensii for just -0.1% shrinkage in the June reading was too timid:  rather, it came in (no surprise) at -0.3%.  Too, the month’s Existing Home Sales slowed and Durable Orders shrank.  But bailing the Baro out by just the wee-est of bits was growth in June’s New Home Sales, plus a reduction in the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.  So below, we’ve the whole picture from one year ago-to-date.  Duly therein note the insert of the S&P 500 futures chart for the past month (21 trading days):  we made such a song-n’-dance a week ago about the baby blue dots of trend consistency being finally in decline … but they’ve suddenly lurched back up (per the three red dots).  “Perfect timing ain’t easy…”:

 

Back to Gold, per our opening observation, ’tis a bit of a dismal start to the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend.  You can see the selling quite starkly in the lower left-hand panel following the rightmost high of last Wednesday, the “Baby Blues” having just kinked lower, too. As for the lower right-hand panel, Gold has formed quite a bevy of overhead volume-dominant resistors as labeled:

The like graphic for Silver shows her having also just taken a bit of a beating per her daily bars from three months ago-to-date (at left).  Still, her 10-day Market Profile suggests some safety in the 38s (at right):

We see next week as pivotal for both Gold and the S&P.  Inclusive of the GDP, the FOMC and the renewed tariffs spree come 18 metrics for the Econ Baro’s scrutiny. As well, Gold’s contract volume rolls from that for August into that for December with better than +50 points of fresh premium, merci!   Where might your money be?

Cheers!

…m…

25 July 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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Gold is presently below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and again volatility is light. The Spoo continues to make all-time highs, today (to this point) having reached 6421; currently at 6414, accounting for Fair Value (+36) would pull the S&P 500 higher still at its opening to 6378, just short of its all-time high yesterday of 6381. The S&P is now “extremely textbook overbought” meaning that each of its BollBands, RSI and Stochastics are stretched as such; this last occurred just on 03 July, the following trading day (07 July) then finding a intraday -78-point drop in the S&P. Tomorrow’s 819th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite the weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long despite price intraweek having dropped nearly -100 points high-to-low. And the Econ Baro closes out its mild week with June’s Durable Orders.

24 July 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Silver are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Currently our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold. We continue to monitor Market Trends’ “Baby Blues” for the Spoo which have popped back above the key +80% axis: but by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +269 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is now “textbook overbought” through its last 21 days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 47.0x even as Q2 Earnings are thus far underperforming their average year-over-year pace of improvement. Today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include June’s New Home Sales.

23 July 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend has — after 10 weeks — provisionally flipped to Long as 3449 traded early on at 00:21 GMT; confirmation comes at Friday’s settle, (barring 3123 unlikely trading in the interim). Presently, we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. For the S&P 500, not recognizable in yesterday’s +0.1% gain was a cap-weighted -$62B drain alone from NVDA: mind our S&P Moneyflow page. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have exceptionally in real-time lurched from +76% to +81%: however, they soon ought well sink sub-80% toward price selling off. Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our leader in the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis we additionally note the Spoo’s 15mn Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD. June’s Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.

22 July 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

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Apologies as there was a delay in getting yesterday’s commentary posted; ’tis been resolved and is there now. On to today, our key thought is ’tis amazing that 34 of the past 39 monthly Leading Indicators reports have been negative, the pace of earnings improvement weakening, and yet the S&P 500 is making all-time highs: fairly startling stuff. At present this Tuesday, Gold is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency continue to slip, however slightly, the real-time reading now +76%: as regular followers know, having gone beneath the +80% axis generally leads to lower prices near-term. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And as to the noted weakening Q2 Earnings Pace, for the 47 S&P constituents having thus far reported, just 62% have bettered their bottom lines from the like quarter a year ago; such improvement through the years averages 66%. We sense the S&P is quite near “The Sell”.

21 July 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Into a light economic data week we go with at present the Bond, Gold and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update describes price as being in a shell these many weeks, the weekly parabolic flip from Short-to-Long now at 3449; too, we emphasize the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) as having fallen below the key +80% level: they are lower still today thus far in real-time, such that lower prices ought well appear near-term; the Spoo is currently +246 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro awaits June’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, which not surprisingly are expected to remain negative, albeit the Baro had a record-setting boost in the past two weeks (as cited in The Gold Update).

The Gold Update: No. 818 – (19 July 2025) – “Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 818th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell“

With Gold’s weekly parabolic trend still Short — uncannily so given there’s not been a wit of substantive price decline throughout — we open with British band Ace from back in ’75: “How lonnng… has this been goin’ onnn…”, such pop hit reaching Billboard’s Hot 100 No. 3 slot on Saturday, 05 April of that year, with Gold having settled the day before at 174.

Fast forward to Gold having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3356 and ’tis a 50-year price increase of +1,829% … just in case you’re scoring at home.

‘Course, compared to the 1¢ cost in 1975 for one piece of Bazooka Bubble Gum, such piece today is  bulk-marketed for 24¢, an increase of +2,300%:  thus Gold is lagging bubble gum inflation.

“And mmb, by the money supply, it’s about that too, eh?”

Similarly so, Squire.  The StateSide “M2” money supply for April 1975 was $935B.  From then to today at $22T, ’tis +2,253%.  So by either measure, “Got Gold?”

But as to our query via Ace for the duration of Gold’s current weekly parabolic Short trend, note a 10th rightmost red dot having now appeared on the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  Indeed, Gold appears ever so stuck it its shell of late:

Moreover as you regular readers well know, a favourite quip of ours is “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  To wit, we’ve the following table of Gold’s last 10 (inclusive) weekly parabolic Short trends, the current stint as bordered in red.  In assessing the average price extremes at the table’s foot, price’s maximum decline — for which the silly Shorts seek — is basically half (-3.2%) that of the adversity suffered (+6.0%) during the course of the trade.  To be sure, success depends upon determining if decline precedes upside adversity or vice-versa, and at what point profit — if any — is realized.  And as the bordered box shows, this ongoing Short trend has recorded at most just a -0.4% decline versus +8.0% of a “pain in the Shorts” if you will:

Albeit to be fair, such Short stints recorded from 2012 through 2015 instead squashed the Longs.  Markedly, from Gold’s high at 1923 on 06 September 2011 to the low at 1045 on 03 December 2015 was a -45.7% stunner.  Since then however, monetary debasement has been mostly moon-bound per our opening Gold Scoreboard’s right panel.

As to “The Now”, regardless of Gold being shell-stuck in this continuing Short trend to nowhere, 10 weeks in duration is getting (dare we say) “Long” in the tooth.  Price’s expected weekly trading range is now 139 points (the daily currently 46 points).  So with present price (3356) now -93 points below the Short-to-Long price (3449), an ensuing firm week for Gold can flip the trend en route toward another All-Time High, (which presently remains 3510 from back on 22 April).  “Get Gold!”

Next let’s shift gears to the second half of this missive’s title with respect to the pending S&P’s sell, which upon kicking in ought ring out many a Gold bell.  To peruse the FinMedia, in Stocks-Land all is well.  With pursuance of math a thing of the past, each outlet parroting what each other is reporting in turn portrays such happy stocks days.  Now let’s go to The Truth.

First, fundamentally:

  • From CNBC[S] on Thursday:  “…Quarterly [Q2] earnings reports this week have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, fueling investor confidence…” the S&P in turn having recorded another all-time intra-day high yesterday at 6315, seriously?

  • Bloomy (yesterday):  “…markets are behaving rationally…”  The trailing 12-months price/earnings ratio of 46.9x is rational?

  • Morningstar yesterday:   “…New research finds that valuation expansion — not stronger fundamentals — has fueled US stocks’ dominance since 2008…”  They’re just figuring this out now?

Let’s be specific about the young Q2 Earnings season to this point:  for the 503 constituents that comprise the S&P 500, we count 40 having thus far reported.  Oh to be sure, 83% of those have beaten estimates!  Ain’t that great?

But wait:  Only 65% actually made more money than in Q2 a year ago.  Uh-oh.  Say it ain’t so:  “Well that wasn’t on the TV, Emeline!”

Nor shall it be as ’tis beyond the paygrade of the participants engaged in The Investing Age Of Stoopid to calculate.  And to fairly acknowledge whilst ’tis still very early in Q2 Earnings Season, that 65% bottom line improvement thus far is less than the 66% for Q1, let alone the 69% for Q4.  Which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the pace of year-over-year quarterly earnings improvement is weakening.  Whoopsie!

Second, technically:

The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the last 18 trading days.  Hardly is that a record, but ’tis what ’tis.

Further, let’s go inside the deMeadville proprietary numbers per the following display relating directly to the S&P 500 futures (aka the “Spoo”).  Per the below graphic, the left-hand panel is the Spoo’s daily bars for the past 21 trading days (one month).  So in sync with conventional wisdom, obviously, the market never goes down.

However, the leading “Baby Blues” — those dots of trend consistency — have just settled below their key +80% axis as labeled at 79.7%.  From a year ago-to-date, such phenomenon has occurred but five other times leading to an average price drop within the ensuing 21 trading days of -172 points.  To be sure from here, ‘twould be less than a -3% correction, albeit the worst of the five prior cases would be basically be more than -7% down.  Such magnitude is not (yet) a prediction; rather ’tis smart of which to be wary.  The “SELL” in the table of the BEGOS Markets nightly readings of the “Baby Blues” is our alert to this condition, for which attention ought be paid:

“But wait a sec, mmb, ’cause the economy’s suddenly roaring!  So much higher still for stocks, right?”

Not necessarily, dear Squire.  A “roaring” (as you put it) economy means the Federal Open Market Committee shan’t vote to cut the FedFunds rate come 30 July, (eight trading days from today).  And disheartened cut expectations do not play well into equities.

Still to Squire’s point, since 09 July the Economic Barometer has posted a shocking recovery:  ‘tis the largest 8-trading-day bounce for the Baro in its 27-year history!  Indeed for the 18 incoming metrics of just this past week, 14 improved period-over-period.  Standouts included June’s Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Core Retail Sales, and Housing Starts/Permits:  all improved, all beat consensii, and all had their May readings revised higher.

As to inflation, there was quite a dichotomy between that for retail versus wholesale.  June’s Consumer Price Index pace leapt from +0.1% in May to +0.3%, yet the month’s Producer Price Index recorded no increase whatsoever.  Does that mean July shall be kinder to the consumer?  But then, there are more tariffs-a-brewin’!  Either way, for the recent Baro, ’tis been “Up, Up and Away, Olé!”

Not to place a damper on all the equities’ and economics’ euphoria, we’ve nonetheless this from the “Feet on the Ground Reminders Dept.”  As noted, the FOMC releases its next Policy Statement on 30 July.  And preceding it that same morning comes the first peek at Q2’s Gross Domestic Product.  Per the Baro, we anticipate it shan’t be pretty.  Yet now suddenly, the economy (per Squire) is “roaring”, right?  Write it down, (double entendre).

Meanwhile back to Gold we go with our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and on the right the 10-day Market Profile.  Because the “Baby Blues” again denoting trend consistency are essentially at 0%, it means that Gold of late is, well, trendless.  Nearby volume-dominant support and resistance are as labeled in the Profile:

Silver however, on the heels on the prior week’s upside drama, fares better than Gold in the overall picture.  The climbing out of her “Baby Blues” (at left) are uptrend supportive, whereas in her Profile (at right) presently priced at 38.43 is just above the most volume-dominant supporter of 38.10.  Hang in there, Sister Silver!

So with Gold still stuck in its shell but the S&P poised for a sell, let’s look at the Stack, for ’tis just swell:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3853
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3449
10-Session directional range:  up to to 3389 (from 3291) = +98 points or +3.0%
Trading Resistance:  by the Profile 3359 / 3370 / 3381
Gold Currently:  3356, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  46 points)
Trading Support:  by the Profile 3345 / 3334 / 3320 / 3311
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3342
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2798 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Into the new week can the Econ Baro seek a further peak?  Probably not, although neither should it succumb much, if at all:   just five metrics come due, Monday most notably bringing for June the Conference Board’s lagging indicator known as “Leading Indicators”.  Expectations are for the reading to remain negative as ’twas for May:  no argument here.

As for our anticipated S&P 500 correction, here are a few P/E nuggets to bear in mind:

  • The day before the Garzarelli Crash of ’87 the P/E was 20.3x;
  • The day before commencement of the DotComBomb of ’00-’02 the P/E was 29.3x;
  • The day before the start of the FinCrisis of ’07-’09, the P/E was 18.7x.

As aforementioned, ’tis now 46.9x, the S&P yielding less than one-third that of the “riskless” U.S. T-Bill.

Note:  math-challenged “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) puts the S&P’s P/E at 25.9x … wrong.  (Just wait until “AI” gets its hands on your discretionary portfolio.  Reprise:  Whoopsie!)

So to wrap:

Query One:  “Do you know where your stocks’ stops are?”

Query Two (again):  “Got Gold?“

Cheers!

…m…

18 July 2025 – 09:21 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are basically on their key +80% axis: an up day likely keeps the Short signal at bay through today; both the Spoo and S&P 500 itself yesterday recorded all-time highs both intra-day as well as for settles; the S&P is 17 days “textbook overbought” through yesterday, and the futs-adj’d P/E is presently 46.9x; per usual, the “Baby Blues” shall alert us to the next downside move. Whilst there’s quite a bit of jubilation early on in Q2 Earnings Season over companies having beaten estimates (85% thus far for S&P 500 constituents), only 64% (a below average pace) have actually bettered their bottom lines from the like quarter a year ago. The Econ Baro wraps its robust upside week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Housing Starts/Permits.

17 July 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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Presently, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold all are below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation currently is positive between the Bond and Euro. Per yesterday’s comment, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time down to the +80% axis: confirmation of breaking below that level reasonably suggests a near-term run into the lower 6100s, (current price 6310); of note, the “live” P/E of the S&P 500 (futs-adj’d) is 46.5x. And ’tis a very busy day for the Econ Baro with eight metrics due, including July’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, June’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus May’s Business Inventories.

16 July 2025 – 08:21 Central Euro Time

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Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light. Per Market Rhythms, our current leaders for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s 6hr Parabolics, and (on a 24-test basis) Oil’s 15mn MACD, Gold’s 6hr MACD, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics. Although both the S&P 500 and Spoo yesterday reached intra-day all-time highs, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are slipping in real-time to the +83% level: should they settle below the key +80% axis level come tomorrow or Friday, ‘twould be an outright sell signal; too, the anticipated price declines as herein noted are in progress given recent like signals for the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for September. The Econ Baro awaits June’s PPI and IndProd/CapUtil. And late in the session is the release of the Fed’s Tan Tome.

15 July 2025 – 08:25 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Gold and the Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having traced 52% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo is teasing an all-time high toward 6336: the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.2x with a yield of 1.228%; that for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill annualized is 4.228%. The Spoo by Market Values in real-time is +216 points above its smooth valuation line and the S&P itself is now “textbook overbought” through the last 14 trading days. The Econ Baro gets its busy week underway with July’s NY State Empire Index, plus June’s CPI which is expected to have heated up.

14 July 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

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The week is off and running with at present the Euro and Spoo below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Silver, the star of The Gold Update; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. As anticipated, the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency confirmed on Friday having fallen beneath their key +80% axis, as had those for the Euro a day earlier; should the Franc get some downside momentum, we’d initially target 1.25050, (current price being 1.26285); too for the Euro (currently 1.17065) we’re seeking at least 1.16855, (the signal having originated from 1.17510). The Econ Baro is quiet today with 18 incoming metrics then due in the week’s balance. And Q2 Earnings Season picks up its reporting pace as the week unfolds: ’twill be interesting to see how year-over-year profitability has fared given the marked decline in the Econ Baro through Q2.

The Gold Update: No. 817 – (12 July 2025) – “Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 817th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!“

“If I may open, mmb, Gold is now +27.7% this year:  no way that’s boring…”

Admittedly, dear Squire, perhaps a bit exaggerated is our title’s “boring” description for Gold.  So far this century, the 28-week year-to-date increase of +27.7% ranks second only to such like stint during 2006:  so in that broader context, to your point, ’tis rather exhilarating, one has to say.

Yet, on the heels of last week’s piece “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week…” — price having since settled yesterday (Friday) at 3370 — through this year’s 28 weeks ’twas Gold’s third narrowest as measured by percentage from low (3290) to high (3382), i.e. +2.8% … “boring…”

“So a week’s range of less than 3% isn’t very, as you like to say ‘alacritive’, eh mmb?”

Squire, ’tis certainly not very characteristic of 2025-to-date.  Thus far this year, Gold’s 20 up weeks have averaged a low-to-high range of +4.1% versus a high-to-low average range of -4.7% during the eight down weeks.  Thus this past week’s full range of +2.8% was rather skimpy.

That noted, the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) suggests as an antonym for “skimpy” the word “abundant”.  And for Sweet Sister Silver, her week’s range — and moreover net percentage gain of +8.0%  — were very abundant, indeed as she found her price yesterday “Soaring!” to its highest daily close (39.08) since 21 September 2011!  ‘Twas her sixth-best weekly percentage gain so far this year (for which she’s +33.4% all told), in turn driving down the Gold/Silver ratio from 90.1x a week ago to now 86.3x … which nevertheless still means Silver is cheap given the ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.2x.  Means reversion is a beautiful thAng.

To visualize what it means to find Gold “boring…” versus Silver “Soaring!” we’ve the following three-panel graphic of our Metals Triumvirate such as to include Copper “ROARING!!”, the red metal year-to-date now +38.8% and leading all eight of our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500).  The graphs’ bars as arrayed are their respective last 21 trading days (one month), replete with grey diagonal linear regression trendlines and the ever-popular “Baby Blues” which depict the day-to-day consistency of trend.  And obviously of late, Sister Silver — rather than adorned in her precious metal pinstripes — has instead opted for her industrial metal jacket so as to “party hearty” with Cousin Copper.  That noted however, Silver’s rightmost two bars (Thursday and Friday) are more directionally aligned with Gold than with Copper.  For at the end of the day, Sweet Sister Silver — like Gold — is money:

In fact as a rare treat, let’s bring up Silver’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, the duration below of her blue-dotted Long trend now eight weeks.  (You did not forget the Silver, did you, mate?):

Whereas in swerving back to poor ol’ boring Gold, the yellow metal just recorded its ninth week of red-dotted parabolic Short trend:

As for Gold’s pace, ’tis run a bit out of puff of late.  Here we’ve Gold’s expected weekly trading range by points so far this year.  Note it has nearly doubled from back in January, but in the recent boredom has begun to wane, the current read for next week being 145 points, albeit price has underperformed the expected range these past four stints:

But:  has the Economic Barometer finally ceased its wane?  To borrower from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement boilerplate, we too shall “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.  Either way, on the heels of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt having “X’d” a week ago “…the economy is BOOMING…” (yes really), this past week’s set of only four incoming metrics nonetheless on balance gave the Baro a wee boost.  Thereto, May’s Wholesale Inventories shank (a positive, suggesting goods are on the move), Initial Jobless Claims were less, and the U.S. Treasury actually recorded a budget surplus in June (again, yes really) for just the fifth time in three full years as (hat-tip Reuters) duty collections by U.S. customs posted a record fiscal-year high given (our descriptor) “Trump Tariffs!”  The week’s only weak metric was Consumer Credit having significantly slowed in May … so does that indicate the main driver of the U.S. economy is getting tapped out?  At least as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, tapped-out earnings (relative to price) continue not to matter.  Here’s the Baro:

Moreover comes this ensuing week for which the Baro anticipates 18 metrics including retail and wholesale inflation for June.  Shall they suggest further cooling … or heating up in Summer’s swooning?  On verra…

To the Precious Metals’ 10-day Market Profiles we turn for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  And to the yellow metal’s credit, in the latter part of the week it muscled up through quite a density of overhead volume-dominant resistance toward getting to this 3370 level.  As for the white metal, last week we’d already seen her underlying volume-dominant support, from which she soared yesterday as aforementioned to her highest daily settle in nearly 14 years!  Brava, Brava, Sister Silva!!

And so we close with this from the “Hype of the Week Dept.” featuring Nvidia (NVDA).  (Even as we “don’t do stocks”, this was too good to avoid the curiosity of doing the math).  Ready?

The mighty video card maker turned “AI” chipster now tops the S&P 500 market capitalization at just over $4T.  Thus for these last couple of days we’ve been hearing time and again that “Wow!  Nvidia’s worth over $4T!!” … except such use of the vernacular is incorrect.  ‘Tis worth nowhere near $4T.

Rather, by the company’s balance sheet as recorded at the end of this past Q1, the net worth is $84B.  In other words, the amount of money invested in Nvidia as marked-to-market today is 48x what the company actually is worth; (that shan’t be on Bloomy, nor FoxyB, nor CNBS, neque alii).  Such stat is actually quite similar to that for Apple (AAPL)’s 47x; however, far more conservative is Microsoft (MSFT)’s 12x, even as its net worth is some four times greater than that of Nvidia.

Still, for those of you scoring at home with a marked-to-market investment at present of, say, $10,000 in Nvidia, were the company to instantly (in theory) liquidate, you’d receive (if lucky after the bondholders) about $200, i.e. only 2% of “what you thought you had”.  Have a nice day.

‘Course the lesson for you WestPalmBeachers down there is:  when you buy shares in a publicly-traded company, it doesn’t get the money; it goes to the seller.  So try not to get carried away…

And congrats if not having forgotten Soaring Sister Silver!

Cheers!

…m…

11 July 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate for the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil which has traced but 21% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). With Friday left in the balance, Gold may be en route to recording its narrowest trading week of the year: more, ‘natch, in tomorrow’s 817th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have settled below their +80% axis; the Swiss Franc appears to do same come today’s close. Too, the Euro is now paired with Gold for the best current correlation — in this case negative — amongst the five primary BEGOS components, (reminding us once again that Gold plays no currency favourites). The Econ Baro finishes its muted week late in the session with June’s Treasury Budget.

10 July 2025 – 09:22 Central Euro Time

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At present all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. Given the recent hem-n-haw of late, we’ve no outstanding Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency; however from the “fade” (i.e. “anti-rhythm”) category, the best 10-test “fade” has been the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr EMA; for the 24-hour basis, the best “fade” has been Oil’s daily MACD. By Market Profiles, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 3347, whereas for Silver, her best volume-dominant underlying supporter is 36.65. For the EuroCurrencies, the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of both the Euro and Swiss Franc continue to curl over to the downside such that by week’s end, one if not both shall confirm sell signals (upon the Blues falling below the +80% axis). The only metric due today in this quiet stint for the Econ Baro is last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

09 July 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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Copper yesterday recorded its largest percentage gain from prior close-to-high (+17.8%) so far this century, the day’s net gain (+10.1%) ranking third-most. This morning, the red metal is at present +3.3% and ’tis the only BEGOS Market above its Neutral Zone; below same is Gold, and session volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having thus far traced 148% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: the Bond shows as -2^01 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.0098 points “high”, Gold as -120 points “low”, Oil as +1.14 points “high”, and the Spoo as +164 points “high”. Q2 Earnings Season is underway. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Wholesale Inventories. And late in the session come the FOMC’s Minutes from its 17-18 June Meeting.

08 July 2025 – 06:41 Central Euro Time

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Very early on this morning as we go into motion, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light, given the hour. As anticipated, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have just slipped below their 0%, indicative of the trend having rotated to negative. Too, those for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are showing the initial signs of rolling very after having been “on the ceiling” of late. Our best Market Rhythm for the Bond (by which a profit target is sought rather than a pure swing) is its daily MACD having confirmed a negative crossing to start the session: better than 3 fully points of gain have followed 7 of the past 10 crossovers. And late in the session for the Econ Baro comes May’s Consumer Credit.

07 July 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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The two-day (04 and 07 July) trading session continues, now finding Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones; the Bond and EuroCurrencies are within same, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate albeit Silver has traced 111% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update depicts the last week having recorded both a lower high and a lower low, yet finishing with a net weekly gain, a phenomena not having occurred since last October; regardless, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short through the past eight weeks; Gold at present is the sole BEGOS component sporting a negative linreg (see Market Trends): however those for both Silver and Oil appear poised to rotate from positive to negative as the week unfolds. Just four metrics are due for the Econ Baro this week, none being on the slate for today.

The Gold Update: No. 816 – (05 July 2025) – “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 816th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak“

Through this year’s 27 trading weeks-to-date, the most recent one for Gold posted a unique set of parameters not yet recorded during 2025.  Ready?

  • Gold’s high for the week (3377) was lower than that prior (3414);
  • Too, Gold’s low for the week (3251) was lower than that prior (3267);
  • And yet, Gold’s “settle” yesterday (Friday) at 3347* was higher than that prior (3286).
    *We acknowledge that Friday’s trading session — given the StateSide holiday — is for settlement this Monday (07 July); thus the “official” weekly settle for Gold was Thursday’s 3336; however to keep you on the cutting edge of being properly informed, let’s go with Friday’s 3347, (because — for you WestPalmBeachers down there — Friday was after Thursday).

“But by that accounting, a +60-point gain for the week isn’t ‘weak’, mmb…”

To your point, Squire, we can wryly agree.  ‘Tis just that — generally speaking — lower highs and lower lows oft lead to still lower levels; thus ’twas a “weak week” perhaps in a leading sense.  And previous to this, Gold had not posted a lower weekly high and lower weekly low for a net up week since that ending 11 October 2024 … we tend to notice little things like that.

Either way, what does it all mean?  Naturally none of us surely know, albeit after having last happened those 38 weeks ago in October, mid-November then found Gold some -132 points even lower, (just in case yer scoring at home).

So, is that relevant in this case?  No fundamentally, given Gold broadly has so much higher to go.  Yet technically, this imbroglio may spell more downside to go per Gold’s weekly parabolic trend as we next show:

Close inspection of the chart’s rightmost two bars depicts the lower highs and lows (red lines) yet the net upswing in price (green line). Too much information perhaps, but ’tis an unusual occurrence; and just because it led to still lower prices last time, hardly does that predict same this time.  Regardless as noted, whilst the U.S. yesterday celebrated its 249th anniversary of independence, Gold gained those additional +11 points from 3336 to 3347 in commencing Monday’s session on Friday.  Got it?  Great.

Next let’s graphically state how Gold is trading of late.  The following two-panel display is culled from the website as updated each trading day.  Regular readers shall recognize on the left our comparing Gold to its smooth valuation line from three months ago-to-date, borne of price’s changes to those of the other primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P).  Price being below the smooth line (by points per the oscillator) is suggestive of lower levels near-term, the actual signal of course coming upon Gold having crossed beneath the line back on 24 June from 3372.  And on the right we’ve Gold’s EDTR (“Expected Daily Trading Range”) by the day from a year ago-to-date.  Amongst tariffs scuffles and geo-political troubles, the EDTR ran as high as 92.4 points back on 28 April, from which to today ’tis nearly halved such expectation to 53.8 points.  The notion is that much of Gold’s trading energy of late is dissipating, just in time for summer vacation:

‘Course on the grandiose scale of daily settles across these past 14 years, Gold is looking — well — Grand!  A concern however over Gold at present being nearly +21% above its 300-day moving average is that — historically — such percentage premium (or even higher) leads “on average” to a -8% fall in price within the ensuing 63 trading day, (i.e. one calendar quarter).  In round numbers from here, that’d be a drop of some -270 points; not a prediction, rather just something of which to be aware:

Next let’s inject a little fun.  (Note:  per the website’s disclaimer and indeed under Monégasque law, we cannot, let alone are we licensed, to make formal trading recommendations).  Rather, the following is merely 100% hindsight from our daily internal work, (and as with all trading studies the following two examples shall eventually morph from profit into loss).  But as we’ve the Market Rhythms page on the website, here are two Gold technical studies which to date have been doing well:  on a 10-test basis ’tis the six-hour MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”), whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the four-hour Parabolics.  “Pure swing consistency” means literally that:  perpetually swinging back and forth on the signals from Long to Short (the latter as we oft quip “being a bad idea” with Gold).  Again as said, these signals eventually will fail, (just as will your ability to sit in front of the trading screen 24-hours per day for months on end):  yet to-date of late they’ve been pretty great … but you’re own your own, mate:

Still not so great is the Economic Barometer.  Worse, it’s abject decline is compounded by the S&P 500 in absolute ignorance going the wrong way.  (Note the wee rightmost down hook by the S&P:  that accounts for the S&P futures selling off whilst StateSide folks were having their “Friday the 4th” BBQs).

As to this past week, 12 metrics came into the Econ Baro, of which period-over-period six improved and six weakened.  Highlighting it all was this from the “In Whom Do You Believe Dept.”:  the Bureau of Labor Statistics found June’s Non-Farm Payrolls to have increased, beating consensus, with those for May revised upward; but by ADP’s Employment data, June Jobs actually shrank, missed consensus, and found May revised lower.  You cannot make this stuff up … regardless, the Baro remains way down:

Near-term, back to Gold we go.  Below on the left are the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date along with the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency, of which now there is very little, such trend having rotated to negative.  And on the right in the 10-day Market Profile (which does not include Friday’s volume as ’tis reserved for Monday’s settle), obviously there is more overhead resistance versus underlying support:

As for the white metal, at left the trend is still positive, albeit weakening as the “Baby Blues” fall.  But by her Profile at right, Silver appears more supported than does Gold.  ‘Course with the Gold/Silver ratio at 90.1x (the century-to-date average being only 69.1x), Sweet Sister Silver has a Long (pun intended) way to grow:

Thus as the U.S. concludes its third holiday-shortened trading week of the last six (they’re getting a bit like France in that respect), Monday ’tis back to work right up to Labor Day (01 September).  But for the Econ Baro, next week brings really encouraging news:  just a wee four metrics are due such that the Baro likely doesn’t get bruised.  Thus let the complacency keep all enthused as The Investing Age of Stoopid continues!  Just don’t lose your shoes…

Dem dogs r’ Gold-Smart!

Cheers!

…m…

04 July 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The BEGOS Markets commence a two-day session for Monday settlement such as to bridge the gap of the StateSide Holiday. And at present we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above their respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold looks poised to post an up week, albeit with likely both a lower high and lower low than a week ago; more of course in tomorrow’s 816th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 settled its week at yet another all-time high (6279 at close) and with a trailing 12 months’ P/E of 45.1x; the Index is now in an extreme “textbook overbought” condition; and specific to the Spoo (which is trading today until the 17:00 GMT holiday halt) is in real-time +218 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Happy 4th to those of you across The Pond!

03 July 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

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At present we’ve only Silver outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best currently is positive between the Euro and Spoo, both of which have firmly been relentlessly up month-over-month; indeed at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency for both markets are essentially “crawling across the ceiling”. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is (futs adj’d) 44.9x and the yield 1.237% vs. 4.223% annualized on the U.S. 3mo T-Bill; too, the S&P is now seven consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”. Given the StateSide holiday tomorrow, we’ve eight incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, including June’s Payrolls data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus May’s Factory Orders and Trade Deficit. The BEGOS Markets resume trading at their usual time tonight, but with settlement for Monday, (07 July), inclusive of the trading halt late tomorrow.

02 July 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

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The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold is leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis is the yellow metal’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis are both the 4hr and 8hr Parabolics; Gold had a firm start to the week, however its 21-day linreg trend continues to rotate more negatively, the “Baby Blues” of such trend’s consistency furthering their fall (see Market Trends). Following the ISR/IRN conflict, Oil’s day-to-day range has narrowed considerably, the last five trading sessions having spanned less than two points/day vs. the EDTR (see Market Ranges) of currently 3.44 points. And the Spoo continues its move up into record territory, albeit the S&P’s MoneyFlow yesterday was far more negative than the slight down change in the Index itself. The Econ Baro looks to June’s ADP Employment data.

01 July 2025 – 08:36 Central Euro Time

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Both Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. At Market Trends, Gold is the sole component in negative linreg, even as price is bouncing a bit; by Market Ranges, Gold’s EDTR is now 56 points, (of which 54% has traded thus far today); Copper already has traded 90% of its EDTR (0.114 points); the red metal is having a solid up run despites its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency weakening some two-to-three weeks ago; Copper’s best Market Rhythm currently for pure swing consistency on our 10-test basis is its 30mn Parabolics. For the Econ Baro we’ve June’s ISM(Mfg) Index and May’s Construction Spending.

30 June 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

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This first day of the week and last day of Q2 finds at present Gold, Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update takes a near-term bearish view, especially given the highly-visible weekly MACD having confirmed a cross to negative, (and the weekly parabolic Short trend having completed a seventh week); too, Gold’s 21-day linreg trend has rotated to negative; price at present is 3301, however has traded thus far this morning to as low as 3251. The Spoo (6254) is sufficiently up at the moment for the S&P 500 to open above 6200, (“fair value” is +50 points). And the Econ Baro looks to June’s Chi PMI.

The Gold Update: No. 815 – (28 June 2025) – “Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 815th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 28 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…“

Amazing, eh?  ‘Twas but a week ago we cited Gold having come within just four li’l ol’ points of flipping its weekly parabolic Short trend back to Long had 3480 traded.  But it didn’t transpire, nor since did price really rise toward the revised 3476 flip level for this past week.  Which means Gold just completed its seventh week of such Short trend, regardless of price having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3286 and thus still above where it all started at 3220 per the opening back on 19 May.

However, Gold has now recorded back-to-back down weeks for only the second time during 2025 as we come into mid-year.  As well, ’twas Gold’s sixth down week in the last 10.  Thus year-over-year, here’s how it all looks with 26 weeks of 2025 in the books:

Indeed at 3286, Gold sits just above our 3262 forecast high for this year, (not that it need be supportive).  Still, ’tis Gold’s lowest weekly settle across these past six.

And now looms this rather ominous technical study:  a negative weekly MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) crossover, which to the trading/investing community at large is a tool far more visible than our own deMeadville analytics.  Here is the history of that MACD from 2023-to-date.  The good news is given Gold having recorded “nuthin’ but up” through this time frame, the prior such negative crossovers induced relatively little selling of substance, the average price drop having been only -52 points before the MACD’s next swing to positive.  However this new negative crossover appears more pronounced and from a significantly higher oscillative level.  Hat-tip David Cassidy’s LP from ’75:  “The Higher They Climb, The Harder They Fall”:

On a nearer-term basis, let’s go ’round the horn for Gold inclusive of all eight BEGOS Markets by their daily bars for the last 21 trading days (one month) along with their baby blue dots of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  Note that at present, seven of the grey trendlines are positive:  only that for Gold has just rotated to negative, its “Baby Blues” therein dropping at a precipitous pace.  And as therein reminded  “Follow the Blues…”

“But mmb, the Dollar is going down; just look above at the Euro and Swissie…”

‘Course as Squire knows, Gold plays no currency favourites.  And this year, the Buck has been losing the fiats’ “Ugly Dog Contest” as later exemplified in our wrap.

Too, May’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expeditures at the “core” level came in hotter (+0.2%) than consensus (+0.1%, as ’twas too for April).  So that, plus the Fed’s being unaware of the plunging Economic Barometer (as we’ll see), likely keeps the Federal Open Market Committee from cutting the Funds Rate per their 30 July Policy Statement.  And yet as we go to the puke-green inflation table for May, whilst the 12-month summation average of +2.4% remains above the FOMC’s preference for +2.0%, May’s annualized readings (all of which — save for the “core” PCE — were just +0.1%) are indicative of inflation cooling.  But as we’ve said in the past, heaven forbid the Fed actually being ahead of the curve.  (At least we are).  Here’s the table:

On to what the Fed, as noted, apparently doesn’t dread:  the Econ Baro being all but dead.  Yes, throughout the 27-year history of the Baro, there have been worse fallouts; however, they’ve regularly been followed by S&P 500 routs.  Not this time however:  neither the Fed nor the FinMedia nor most investors get it.  Rather, as the economy cringes, the S&P binges.  Reprise:  “Marked-to-market, everybody’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality, nobody’s worth squat” … especially given the S&P’s present market capitalization of $54.2T supported by a liquid StateSide “M2” money supply of but $22.0T.  That’s an “Uh-oh…”  Here’s the Baro:

Back to Gold, and as (save for one trading day) ’tis month-end, let’s peek at the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold comparable to several top-tier precious metal equities.  So here’s what we’ve got from the bottom up:  Newmont (NEM) is +35%, bettered by Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +40%, Gold itself +42%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +50%, and amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +79%.  ‘Course specific to this one-year time frame, only AEM is exhibiting the notable leverage play whilst the balance of the bunch are merely scattered ’round the yellow metal:

Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right, wherein both panels echo the same sentiment:  “resistive”.  Still, on a century-to-date basis, the white metal remains the better value per the Gold/Silver ratio at 91.7x.  Were Silver instead priced to the ratio’s average (69.1x), ‘twould today be 47.57 … that’s +33% higher than the actual 35.84 level.  Again we refrain:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”

Next to Gold’s Structure by the month from the year 2010-to-date.  Again acknowledging one trading day remains in June (the rightmost candle), nonetheless duly note the selling from these last three months’ respective highs, the 3400 level having thus become arduous to maintain:

To wrap it up, ‘twouldn’t be month-end (less a day) without the BEGOS Markets’ Standings.  And through these six months, our Metals Triumvirate has dominated the podium:  none of the other markets thus far have fared better than fourth position.  For June, swapping the first two spots from May are Gold by Copper, the red metal having just recorded its fourth best week (+4.8%) of the year.  Meanwhile the non-earnings supportive S&P 500 miraculously  clings to a +5.0% gain, oblivious to its pending pain, (yes ’tis coming with a vengeance by any historical means-reversion measure of earnings multiples, the “live” price/earnings ratio at present 44.6x).  Moreover as earlier teased:  pity the poor Dollar!  The Dollar Index is -10.5% through the first half of this year.  That is Dixie’s worst first six months’ percentage drop since coming on line as a futures product 40 years ago!  Again cue the late, great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

                                                         

But barring anything untoward (i.e. renewed geo-political jitters, an equity market collapse, the inevitable loss of confidence in the financial system), we shan’t be surprised to find Gold working lower through here.  Yet one can buy Gold’s dip to stay financially fit!

Cheers!

…m…

27 June 2025 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

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Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As we look toward tomorrow’s 815th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal looks to continue its weekly parabolic Short trend, even as price is higher (3299) than when it began (3220); too for Gold, the weekly MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, and price this week has slipped below both its Market Value and Market Magnet; too by Market Trends, Gold’s linreg looks en route to rotating to negative during next week. The event of the day is May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data, other incoming Econ Baro metrics including the month’s Personal Income/Spending. And should the Spoo be priced above 6198 (currently 6211) upon the commencement of StateSide RTH trading, the S&P 500 would print an all-time high at the open.

26 June 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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As was the case at this time yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility, whilst light, is rangier than ’twas 24 hours ago. Seems “all are waiting” for tomorrow’s “Fed-favoured” inflation data via May’s PCE. At Market Rhythms, we note on the 24-test basis the pure swing consistency of late for the Bond’s 15mn MACD, the median duration of each swing being some 4-to-5 hours. Per Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, however the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are dropping for Gold, Silver and Oil; those for Copper have curtailed their fall: the red metal’s daily Parabolics appear poised to flip from Short-to-Long in the next few days, barring a sudden price decline. Incoming Econ Baro metrics include May’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the final read on Q1 GDP.

25 June 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

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The BEGOS Markets are comparatively quiet across the board given the recent events/ceasefire in the Mid-East: at present, all eight components are within today’s Neutral Ranges and volatility is very light, the average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing just 24% to this point. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, there are not any overly extreme deviations: in real-time, the Bond shows as -0^30 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.009 points “high”, Gold -45 points “low”, Oil +1.67 points “high”, and the Spoo +121 points “high”, the latter’s EDTR being 82 points. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency for both Gold and Oil confirmed dropping below their key +80% axes, indicative of still lower prices near-term. And the Econ Baro awaits May’s New Home Sales.

24 June 2025 – 08:36 Central Euro Time

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Concerns over the Mid-East conflict have basically been absorbed by the BEGOS Markets as a “ceasefire” comes to the fore. The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Oil; session volatility is firmly moderate. From yesterday’s Oil high of 78.40 to today’s low (thus far) of 64.38 is a -17.9% drop. Copper has been resilient even as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue lower still; the red metal’s cac volume is moving from July into that for September as too shall be the case for Silver over the next day or two. The Spoo (on a continuous cac basis) has today tapped 6140, the all-time high being 6167 on 19 February. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics are June’s Consumer Confidence and Q1’s Current Account Deficit.

23 June 2025 – 08:21 Central Euro Time

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Some five hours following release of The Gold Update came the States’ sortie over IRN; however, to look this morning at the BEGOS Markets, they appear as a fairly normal start to the week, save for volatility being moderate-to-robust; Oil is the only component at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, currently +1.4%; early on, ’twas up as much as +5.9%. Gold presently is -0.4%, The Gold Update suggesting the weekly Short trend becoming “elongated”, notably with the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) rolling over to the downside. And the Spoo is -0.2%. The deteriorating Econ Baro has 13 metrics scheduled for this week, commencing with May’s Existing Home Sales.

The Gold Update: No. 814 – (21 June 2025) – “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 814th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 21 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?“

Let’s celebrate today’s Summer Solstice (02:42 GMT) with the first sentence from The Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement dated this past Wednesday, 18 June:

“Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”

Is that really so?  For as posted yesterday (Friday) on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), the Economic Barometer just reached an oscillative low not seen since 10 September 2009 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  Here ’tis, the Baro and S&P 500 having morphed from being in blissful harmony to comprehensive disconnection:

Further, following the FOMC’s prior Policy Statement (07 May), 74 metrics have since come into the Econ Baro … with only 28 having improved period-over-period … which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “We’re going the wrong way!” despite the claim of the economy expanding “at a solid pace.”  Doubtless such disparity shan’t be on CNBS, et alia.

Neither is Gold watching the Baro; otherwise one ought think the yellow metal would be soaring in “the knowledge” that the FOMC must next vote (30 July) to reduce the Funds Rate, further debasing the Dollar as dough then flows more easily through the Fed’s window into the the money supply.  It may be perennially behind the curve, but surely the Fed has the economy mis-read.  And as for the disconnect from the Baro by the S&P 500, has the latter transited from The Investing Age of Stoopid to that of basically brain-dead?  (More on that in our wrap).

Instead — since the Mid-East conflict ramped up some six trading days ago on 13 June — Gold has been doing exactly what it does during geo-political duress:

  • first it swiftly gains ground;
  • then it all comes back down.

To wit:  Gold settled Thursday 12 June at 3406.  Said conflict then erupted that Friday and through the weekend such as to find Gold by Monday (16 June) having scampered up to as high as 3476 … only to spend the balance of this past week selling off as is its geo-political wont down yesterday to 3356, a full -50 points lower than before ISR attacked IRN.

“Sad to say, but these geo-political events look like pretty easy trades, eh mmb?”

We don’t encourage that nature of risk, Squire, especially as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  But Gold’s geo-political “spikes n’ sinks” regularly pan out, the prime example being back on “911” in 2001.  Gold halted that terror-filled day at 276.  Following the ensuing days of no trading, Gold then worked higher to 296 come 21 September (+7.2%), the largest six-trading-day percentage leap of that year.  Yet a month on, Gold settled all the way back down at 276 on 22 October, the assault on the States “priced in” as if nothing had happened.  Moreover, it took until May of the following year before Gold permanently rose above the 200s.  Certainly more recently we’ve seen Gold “spike n’ sink” over RUS/UKR and now yet again with ISR/IRN, as well as on other examples that we’ve previously documented.

As to the current case, ’twas somewhat surprising that Gold’s geo-political price spike was not enough to flip the weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long, even as we’d anticipated ‘twould in last week’s piece.  Thus Short remains said stint despite price having settled the week at 3384, still a good +164 points higher than when the trend “officially” began per 19 May’s opening trade at 3220, (i.e. “down” has been “up” as we graphically detailed a week ago).  And so to Gold’s updated weekly bars we go, a sixth red dot having joined the show:

To be sure, that rightmost weekly bar came ever so close to the 3480 flip level, price reaching to as high as the aforementioned 3476 level … which in turn is the new hurdle for the ensuing week.

But:  is the Short trend about to become (pardon the pun) elongated?  Per the following two-panel graphic of daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and Sister Silver on the right, we see the baby blue dots beginning to descend.  Mathematically, that means the two respective uptrends have begun to lose their consistency.  And as you regular readers and website viewers well know:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.”  Here’s the graphic:

Then we’ve this next double-panel view as culled from the website:  the precious metals’ Market Magnets, also for the past three months-to-date.  For both Gold at left and Silver at right, price has just moved beneath Magnet.  The rule in this case is to expect prices to further fall; however, given the on-balance strength of the yellow and white metals from May-to-date, such Magnet penetrations have suffered little downside follow-through.  Regardless, whether for near-term trading or in timing the placement of a broader-term strategy, price’s directional movement vis-à-vis its Magnet is a substantive leading tool.  And in this case with the aforeshown “Baby Blues” beginning to rollover, be thee not surprised to find prices move a little lower:

Such near-term negativity noted, let’s next check the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  And whereas Gold is exhibiting underlying volume support at both 3361 and 3351 as labeled, we’ve none by this construct for Silver.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!  Too, for both metals, we also denote their overhead volume resistors:

In sum, a bit more pullback in the precious metals ought not be of much concern, (that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”) even as we’ve key leading indicators that suggest a bit of a near-term a slip.  With 3384 Gold today — a -12% discount to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3827 — price’s best days remain well up the Golden Road.  Indeed, to eclipse the key 3476 level in the new week — and thus flip the weekly trend from Short back to Long — from here is a distance of +92 points.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  151 points.  Clearly doable, especially should another dose of geo-political jitters ensue.  Otherwise, some pullback looks due.

To close, we query:  “Do you scare easily?”  If you’re invested in equities, the following fearful graphic arguably suggests running for cover.  Recall the disconnect with which we opened between the plunging Econ Baro and the flying S&P 500?  Scary.  More broadly for the S&P, really scary!  Such “Casino 500” today at 5968 is some +33% above the top of the yellow regression channel and the “trailing twelve months” price/earnings ratio of 43.5x essentially double any historical norm, (let alone practically triple Jerome B. Cohen’s “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”).

As a fine friend said over coffee this morning “Next year’ll be a disaster for the stock market”, to which we quizzically responded “What about next week?”  Scary indeed:

The good news of course is that all such “scariness” is mitigated given economics no longer have meaning, as neither do earnings.  Employing math is a thing of the past!  Or to reprise what a seasoned investor said to us here back in April:  “Nobody at Goldman [today] has ever experienced a down market.”  Then to close out the FinMedia week came this yesterday from Dow Jones Newswires:  “The Stock Market Has Taken a Lot of Pain for Not Much Gain.”  Look at the top of the above graphic.  They’ve no concept of what market pain is.

Either way, don’t you get mis-read; get Gold instead!

Cheers!

…m…

20 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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The two-day session continues, at present finding the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above their Neutral Zones and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate below same; volatility (as is typical in accounting for two days) is mostly robust. The Spoo yesterday traded below its “low if a down day” (5979), price having since rebounded nearly all the way back up. As anticipated, Copper is weaking as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) drop further still; too, those for both Silver and Gold are curling over to the downside: more on it all in tomorrow’s 814th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s recent strength given the Mid-East strife finds price (in real-time) +12.30 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). And the best correlation currently amongst our five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold, albeit the latter has been coming off a bit. The Econ Baro finishes its week with June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. given the Baro, “lagging”) Indicators.

19 June 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

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Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement on Friday. At present, we’ve the the two EuroCurrencies, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; volatility thus far is moderate, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer being Gold at 71%; of note, the yellow metal’s weekly Parabolic trend still is Short and would end the week as such, barring a rally from here (3366) of some +114 points (3480 being the flip-to-Long price) by Friday. As for Copper, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) fallout continues without price (as yet) having materially let go to the downside; however today, Copper has marginally slipped below its most dominant volume price supporter (see Market Profiles) at 4.815. The various trading halts for the holiday commence at 17:00 GMT.

18 June 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

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At present we’ve the Euro, Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point being 50% for both Gold and Copper. Specific to the red metal, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue their fall as the consistency of price’s uptrend breaks down. Looking at Market Magnets, save for Oil (which yesterday settled 8.73 points above its Magnet) the balance of the BEGOS Bunch are basically at their respective Magnet levels. Due to tomorrow’s StateSide holiday, the Econ Baro today (rather than Thursday) receives the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims; due too are May’s Housing Starts/Permits. And late in today’s session comes the FOMC’s “no change” Policy Statement, although the plunging Econ Baro and benign (by May) inflation ought be substance for an eventual FedFunds rate cut.

17 June 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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As internally texted last evening, the markets appear to have “priced-in” the Mid-East conflict and now are “on hold” ahead of the Fed on Wednesday: at present, seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today (Silver being just a tad above same), and session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, although the consistency of that for Copper is notably weakening. Oil, which as it did yesterday spiked up and then retreated, still finds by Market Values current price (70.46) +9.65 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; too, the Spoo is at present +151 points “high” by the like measure. ‘Tis quite the cavalcade of incoming metrics due today for the Econ Baro, including June’s NAHB Housing Index, May’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business Inventories.

16 June 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

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Despite Mid-East turmoil, the BEGOS Markets by change appear rather disinterested. Both the Bond and Gold are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility however is moderate-to-robust, primarily as Oil spiked higher at the open to 75.50 but since retreated to now 71.78. The Gold Update acknowledges the weekly parabolic Short trend as having survived another week even as price has been rising throughout: the hurdle for the trend to flip to Long in the new week is 3480, the high today already 3476 before price having since pulled back to now 3436. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from June into September with +54 points of fresh premium; (as noted on Friday, Oil’s cac volume is moving from July into August). And 14 metrics come due for the Econ Baro this week, including for today June’s NY State Empire Index.

The Gold Update: No. 813 – (14 June 2025) – “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 813th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 14 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But“

Gold’s (yes still) ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend was initially triggered on Monday, 12 May upon price trading down through 3243 (at 07:23 GMT).  ‘Twas confirmed by that week’s end, price opening on Monday, 19 May at 3220.  Since then, here is Gold’s continuous contract by the hour, replete with its regression channel:

Why, even you WestPalmBeachers down there can see that price — rather than falling as is the rule within a Short trend — has instead been rising as is the exception.  However, for some two years, such Short trends have mostly been short-lived, pun intended.

To wit:  across the past 94 weeks from that ending 01 September 2023 (Gold then 1966) through yesterday (Gold now 3453), 70 weeks have been within Long trends versus just 24 under Short trends.  And Gold having settled this past week as noted at 3453 — by the continuous contract an All-Time Daily & Weekly Closing High — such price is +76% above where ’twas on that date just 22 months ago.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.  Or as we’ve oft quipped and embedded in the above chart:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”

‘Course, whilst currency debasement is the primary driver of Gold, ramped-up geo-political jitters again abound, stressed by ISR/IRN on top of both ISR/PSE and RUS/UKR.  Plus later today StateSide come coast-to-coast protests versus the policies of the Executive Branch and its display of military might.

So with all that in mind, we go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a fifth rightmost Short trend red dot:

Because this Short trend technically (barely) is still in force, we again acknowledge the 2973-2844 support zone.  Nonetheless, the distance to flip the Short trend back Long is a mere +27 points above here at the 3840 level.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 152 points, (the daily alone now 62 points) the flip ought come quickly, even per an opening up gap on Monday should geo-political tensions escalate through this weekend.  Thus we’re just about there.

“But as you usually say, mmb, price spikes on geo-politics don’t last very long…”

True enough, Squire.  Yet should the trend flip to Long in the new week, reflipping it back to Short wouldn’t initially occur until 3123 trades, some -330 points below present price.  More importantly:  an imminent flip to Long puts a fresh All-Time High above 3510 squarely on the near-term table for Gold:  ’tis just +57 points from here.  So much for the Shorts singin’ “I’m struttin’ my stuff, y’all…” –[Elvin Bishop, ’75].  (Albeit we ought not disparage the Shorts as they accommodate taking the other side of the trade).

Further for those of you scoring at home, through this year’s 24 trading weeks-to-date, Gold is now +31%, this last week’s gain being third-best by both percentage (+3.7%) and points (+122 points) as depicted in the above graphic.  Too, per the website’s “Gold” and “Market Rhythms” pages, Gold’s best Rhythm through its last ten iterations from 03 April-to-date has been the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) on price’s eight-hour series.  (But try not to get carried away).

If anything ought be carried away (on a stretcher) ’tis the Economic Barometer.  As herein penned a week ago:  “…the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years…”

Still, we’ve this from the “Taking the Good with the Bad Dept.”:  as the economy by the Baro is slowing — indeed outright shrinking — inflation for May as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooled; (May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE is not due until 27 June).  Thus the “s” word “stagflation” is not (as yet?) being made “officially” apparent, even if ’tis evident by your own personal engagement in commerce.  We certainly sense it:  the base cost of our triannual purchase of popping corn from the States (as ever so detailed in Gold Update No. 803 from this past 05 April) just increased +10.1% before shipping, tariff and value-added tax.  Yet at least The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June reached a three-month high, (but we can’t see why):

‘Course the true sentiment gainers — certainly so of late — are the precious metals.  Below we’ve the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The baby blues depicting day-to-day trend consistency have spritely leapt higher for both metals in recent weeks.  Regardless, in just the past few days, the yellow metal has garnered more of a geo-political bid than has the white metal, (lest we forget that in the week prior, Sweet Sister Silver gained +9.4% as opposed to just +0.5% for Gold).  Either way, both look great, all told:

Too, life is good near Profile highs.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) we’ve their price ranges for the past fortnight as depicted by volume, the most heavily traded levels as labeled, and the white bars being Friday’s respective settles:

And so toward the wrap here’s The Gold Stack:  what can be better than that?

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3825
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3480
10-Session directional range:  up to to 3467 (from 3314) = +153 points or +4.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
Trading Resistance:  none per the Profile
Gold Currently:  3453, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  62 points)
Trading Support:  notables by the Profile 3445 / 3399 / 3380 / 3351
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3385
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2721 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Come this Wednesday (18 June), the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its next Policy Statement.  Expectations call for the FOMC voting to continue maintaining the target range for its Funds Rate at 4.25%-to-4.50% regardless of the faltering Econ Baro and Q1 annualized GDP shrinkage of -0.2%.  However as you no doubt recall, the bugaboo coupled to that latter figure was the Q1 Chain Deflator of +3.7% … Ouch!  May’s inflation may have cooled, but given economic shrinkage, is there still stagflation linkage?  Perhaps rather than order popcorn by the pack, we ought do so by the pallet…

…and thus keep more Gold and Silver in the wallet!

Cheers!

…m…

13 June 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

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The overnight Mid-East offensive has made robust the volatility of the BEGOS Markets: notable movers are Oil having traced 443% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo 156%, the Euro 113% and Gold 109%. Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, Gold and Oil, whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Gold is getting the geo-political bid (sans Silver) in having traded to as high as 3467, which is not enough to flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 3487 to trade today); more of course in tomorrow’s 813th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in the new week may move below their key +80% axis which would point to lower price levels near-term; the Dollar is firming today (+0.4%) even as Gold is up (+1.1%). The EuroCurrencies’ cac volumes are rolling from June into those for September; watch same for Oil from July into August toward Monday. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with UofM’s Sentiment Survey for June.

12 June 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

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Presently, the Euro and Swiss Franc are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive 21-day linreg, which reflects the downturn in the Dollar Index from 100.840 a month ago to now 98.360. However, going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time, we’ve the Bond -2^05 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; for the other primary components, the Euro shows as essentially in synch with such valuation, Gold as +50 points “high”, Oil as +5.99 points “high” and the Spoo as +185 points “high”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include wholesale inflation per May’s PPI.

11 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within their respective Neutral Zones for today and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis the current leaders are the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve (yet again) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euros 2hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD. By Market Trends, in real-time the “Baby Blues” for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are kinking lower for the first time in some three weeks, an early indication that their recent rallies are running out of puff; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have stalled their descent, but have not reversed back upward. The Econ Baro looks to May’s retail inflation via the CPI; and late in the session come’s the month’s Treasury Budget.

10 June 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

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Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate, following a fairly narrow day yesterday; indeed by Market Ranges, all eight BEGOS components have seen plunging EDTRs over the last month. At Market Trends, only the Bond is in negative linreg, however ’tis rotating toward positive; and in real-time, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising across the board including ~barely~ for the Spoo, the latter’s having been in descent for some three weeks without price (as yet) succumbing per se. Regardless, the S&P 500 continues its significant overvaluation, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E currently 47.0x and yield a wee 1.282% vs. 4.240% annualized for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of inflation data into the balance of the week.

09 June 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time

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The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights Silver’s +9.4% net gain for last week, whereas that for Gold was just +0.5%; and yet with the Gold/Silver ratio now 91.9x, relative to the yellow metal, the white metal nonetheless remains cheap given the century-to-date average ratio of 69.1x. Per Market Values, Gold is essentially on its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is +258 points above same; and yes, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are lower yet again without price having materially fallen, albeit such leading indicator suggests the selling is coming. For the Econ Baro — the negative divergence of which from the S&P 500 is stunning — the week begins with April’s Wholesale Inventories.

The Gold Update: No. 812 – (07 June 2025) – “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 812th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 07 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show“

We simply must start with the spotlight on Silver:  Sweet Sister Silver!  As if shot out of a cannon this past Monday, Silver swiftly soared, by Wednesday reaching 36.27 — a level not having traded in better than 13 years (since 29 February 2012) — then onward to as high yesterday (Friday) as 36.51 before settling the week at 36.13  Just like that!

Oh how many times through hundreds of missives have we stressed “Do NOT forget the Silver!”  For when Silver goes, she GOES!

A stellar week indeed for Sister Silver.  Through now 1,275 trading weeks of the 21st century, this past weekly net gain of +9.4% was Silver’s 21st best, (the largest weekly net gain being +17.4% for that ending 27 March 2020 as COVID closed the globe).  And year-to-date, Silver is now +23.4%, within our Metals Triumvirate having passed Copper +20.1%, atop which Gold still leads +26.2%.

But wait, there’s more:  for relative to Gold, Silver still remains cheap as we turn to the daily Gold/Silver ratio for these past 25 calendar years.

And as you can therein see, the Gold/Silver ratio (now 92.2x) periodically returns to its evolving average (69.1x), at which today we’d find the white metal +33% higher at 48.22 versus the present price of 36.13.  Effectively as a rule of thumb, a ratio above 80x generally leads to higher Silver prices.

“But a decline in gold without silver going up can also bring the ratio down, mmb…”

Unlike the balance of the modern-day financial world, Squire does math.  And were Gold fundamentally overvalued, we’d be on the lookout for such declining ratio impetus.  To be sure, technically Gold remains in a weekly parabolic Short trend.  But by the de facto driver that is Dollar debasement, Gold today at 3331 is -13% undervalued per the opening Scoreboard’s implied 3824 level.  So let Silver also rise to the occasion.

Still as noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short, price on balance lying low for the week in posting a net gain of just +0.5%, overwhelmed by Silver’s aforementioned +9.4% net gain.  In fact as a rare graphical bonus, here are Sister Silver’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date and — contra to Gold’s parabolic trend being Short — hers is Long per the three rightmost blue dots:

In turning now to Gold’s weekly bars, the Short trend thus far actually “appears” up even as the rightmost red parabolic dots are in decline.  Yet price nevertheless has sported three “higher lows” in a row:

Regardless, Gold intra-week had been up as much as +3.5% before basically “…giving it all away…”  –[Roger Daltery, ’73].  Thus the Short trend continues from which an ascent up through 3487 in the new week would initiate a new Long streak.  Such level is +156 points higher from here, which is not that unrealistic as Gold’s expected weekly trading range is presently 151 points.  But should the Short trend stubbornly persist, we remain mindful of the underlying 2973-2844 support zone as maintained on the above graphic.  Either way, for these past five days, the spotlight has shown upon Sweet Sister Silver per her cumulative percentage track versus that for Gold:

‘Course, doing all it can to avoid the spotlight is the Economic Barometer.  This past Wednesday, the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years — since 14 September 2009 — the StateSide economy then arduously trying to recovery from the depths of the FinCrisis.  And today, the Baro’s divergence from the happy-go-lucky-stuck-on-stoopid “Casino 500” stands as stark as perhaps we’ve ever seen (barring our clawing back through 27 years of Baro/S&P data).  Have a view, should you’ve the stomach to so do:

But not to worry!  Rather, ’tis all OK!  Out of the Bond and into the S&P, “Olé!”  Hat-tip Bloomy yesterday, post-May Payrolls data:  “…Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth, prompting traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year … Jobs Surprise…”  Seriously?  “Jobs Surprise”?  Let’s see:  according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Non-Farm Payrolls” growth slowed from 147k in April — itself revised lower from 177k — to 139k in May.  Isn’t that going the wrong way?

“But it beat the 130k consensus, mmb…”

Ah yes, that’s it, Squire:  consensii are more important than reality.  Further, the pace of Hourly Earnings doubled from +0.2% to +0.4%.  So:  job growth is slowing and wages are rising.  Very much akin to the just revised read for Q1 Productivity:  it decreased -1.5% … but Unit Labor Costs increased +6.6%.  Remember the “S” word?  “Stagflation“?   “Got Gold? … Got SILVER?”

Let’s next look first to Silver as we go to her two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  From 07 April’s low of 27.55 to this past week’s high at 36.51 is a 42-trading-day (two months) gain of +32.5%:  impressive!  Note the Profile’s dominant volume support areas of 34.65 and 33.40-33.25:

Then second there’s Gold… good ol’ Gold!  By the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency (below left), Gold understandably lacks that of Silver; however, price’s gain across the three-month panel, too, is impressive!  A bit more daunting though is Gold’s Profile (below right) depicting notable volume resistance from 3380 up to 3399.  And we not be reminded that Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend still is in force:

All-in-all, a stunning and well-overdue super week for Silver.  And again, relative to Gold, Silver is still a bargain.  But the inexorable passage of time marches ever onward, the ensuing week’s StateSide highlights being both retail and wholesale inflation readings for May.  Consensii for the Consumer Price Index sense same or an uptick from April’s pace, whilst the Producer Price Index is expected to have swung from DEflationary back to inflationary.  We therefore graphically query:

 

Cheers!

…m…

06 June 2025 – 08:30 Central Euro Time

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Into week’s end finds Silver — having yesterday made a 13-year high — at present above its Neutral Zone for today as is the Spoo, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. And yes, despite the Spoo being higher, its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) are lower for an 11th consecutive session; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +252 points “high” over it smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is “textbook overbought” with a P/E (“live” 46.3x) basically double the historical multiple. By Market Profiles, overhead Spoo resistance shows in the 5978-5982 zone, and underlying support from 5923 to 5915. The Econ Baro awaits the data for May’s Payrolls, plus late in the session comes April’s Consumer Credit. Obviously we’ll salute Sister Silver in tomorrow’s 812th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.