‘Tis a BEGOS Market’s two-day session for Friday settlement, with trading halts later today and early closures tomorrow. At present, we’ve Silver above its Neutral Zone and having traded as high as 54.43 as it nears its all-time high (basis March) of 55.06; below today’s Neutral Zone is Copper, and overall session volatility thus far is light. Looking at correlations within the five primary BEGOS components, our best currently is positive between Gold and Oil, both having been mildly down since late October, albeit by Market Trends (on a slightly shorter timeframe), Gold’s linreg is positively-sloped whereas that for Oil is negative. The Econ Baro is recording “delayed data” as it becomes available, however overall, many metrics remaining missing, and as the BLS stated last week, some reports simply shan’t ever be assembled; regardless, the tilt of the Baro for most of November has been up. A very Happy Thanksgiving to you StateSiders over there!
Mark
26 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Both the Swiss Franc and Silver are presently above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 4hr MACD, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow; for the 24-test basis they are the Euro’s 15mn Parabolics, Silver’s 1hr MACD, and Copper’s daily Parabolics. Although yesterday’s S&P 500 change was +0.9%, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points was -0.5%: mind the MoneyFlow page. Due to the recent StateSide “shutdown”, there is conflict amongst reporting entities as to which Econ Metrics actually shall come through: likely for today we’ll at least receive November’s Chi PMI (an earlier date than usual given tomorrow’s holiday), plus purportedly from back in September both Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
25 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Copper is at present above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold nicely commenced its new weekly parabolic Short trend by — as surmised in The Gold Update — firmly rising yesterday, (albeit that doesn’t preclude there not being lower levels in the offing); too, Gold’s cac volume today is rolling from December into that for February, inclusive of +37 points of fresh premium; rolling as well today is Silver’s cac volume from December into that for March, (and to follow today/tomorrow is same for the Bond). At Market Trends, six of eight linregs are negative, the only two positives being those for Gold and Silver. Scheduled for the Econ Baro are November’s Consumer Confidence, October’s Pending Home Sales, and in playing “catch-up”, September’s PPI and Retail Sales.
24 November 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update cites price’s weekly parabolic trend as having confirmed the anticipated flip from Long-to-Short, but in the context that Short trends within the past two years have had negligible negativity, and thus in hindsight have been buying opportunities. Q3 Earnings Season is complete with 71% of S&P 500 reporting constituents improving their quarterly year-over-year bottom lines, which favourably compares with typical improvement of 66%; still, the overall level of earnings is far too low to maintain the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P of 51.8x at this instant. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from December into that for March. And whilst no fresh metrics are scheduled for the Econ Baro, there may be some “catch-up” data on IndProd/CapUtil for September, which of course we’ll duly incorporate.
The Gold Update: No. 836 – (22 November 2025) – “Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 836th & 16th Anniversary Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short“
Welcome to the 16th Anniversary Edition of The Gold Update. What began 835 Saturdays ago on 21 November 2009 as a single paragraph and chart for one JGS has since evolved (in our proud opinion) to the finest weekly writing in the known universe as regards the current stance of the price of Gold. And our humble thanks to those of you who have expressed words to that effect over these many years. On with the show.
As anticipated in recent missives, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend — after an amazing 17-week run on the Long side — yesterday (Friday) confirmed the awaited flip to Short. For those of you scoring at home, the flip provisionally arrived this past Tuesday at 04:20 GMT per our post on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold having penetrated below the protective parabolic price of 4004. Gold then moved on to settle its fourth down week in the past five at 4063, which by the above Scoreboard is nonetheless still +169 points (+4.3%) over Fair Value (3894). So some additional pullback wouldn’t be untoward.
Yet across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!
“Because in each one of those, price hasn’t really gone down a lot, right mmb?”
Conclusively correct, Squire. But before providing that proof, let’s first below go to Gold by the week from a year ago-to-date, wherein encircled above the rightmost bar we now have the first red dot heralding the commencement of this new Short trend; too, we’ve drawn a structural support line at 3534:
Regardless: if this fresh Short trend is anything similar to the past four Short trends during the last two years, Gold may hardly fall at all! Let’s go inside the numbers.
The following table depicts each weekly parabolic trend (alternating Long…Short…Long…et cetera) for said two years. Note the “Duration” column: the five Long trends have each lasted 16-17 weeks (how consistent is that!) whereas the four Short trends have paled in length. Moreover: look at the fabulous maximum gains of the Longs vs. comparatively “zilch” (technical term) for the Shorts. However, should such ShortSide adversity continue, does Gold reach down to that 3534 support level? By these mathematical parameters, no:
As for the most recent (now complete) Long trend, that maximum gain of $107k (were you impossibly prescient to have exited at the high) is not a typo. To trade one Gold contract requires initial margin of $17k to control 100 ounces. Per the opening price (as shown) of 3321 up to the All-Time High at 4398 = +1,077 points x $100/point = $107k for a +629% leveraged account gain in just 60 trading days (from 28 July to 20 October). Unleveraged, even just a single one-ounce Gold coin gained +32%. As for the herd’s “Nuthin’ but Nvidia!” (NVDA) across that same stint? +6.4%. Which one did you have?
All that said, Gold can of course have a far more negative Short trend than has been the case these last two years. Not that you wish to be reminded, but from 05 November 2012 to 03 June 2013 Gold went on a 31-week parabolic Short trend within which price plummeted -21%; a repeat of that from here (4063) would place Gold back in the low 3200s. But as firmly flies Gold’s fundamental flag, let’s even see if support at 3534 actually gets tested. For across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold rather than price plunges.
And an initial price for which to watch is a retest of 3901, which is the intra-day low of 28 October, following Gold having made that recent All-Time High at 4398 back on 20 October.
Such negative notions notwithstanding, you know the rule: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.” And thus contrary to Gold’s new parabolic Short trend, we next view the following two-panel graphic of the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Clearly therein, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency are rising … but such rise may be short-lived (pun intended) unless Monday is a substantive up day. As for the Profile, price at present is churning about in the 4089-4061 volume-dominant congestion zone:
Further, with the same graphical layout for Silver, her “Baby Blues” (below left) already have just kinked a notch lower (albeit barely so per the rightmost blue dot). And by the white metal’s Profile (below right), 50.75 is the most volume-dominant overhead resistor, price having settled the week at 49.66. But as Gold has come off from the prior week, more so has Silver: just back on 12 November, the Gold/Silver ratio was 78.9x, its lowest reading in better than a year. But through these last seven trading days wherein Gold has dropped -3.3%, Silver has fallen -6.7%, the ratio thus having increased to now 81.8x. Poor ol’ Sister Silver! ‘Course year-to-date, she’s up “only” +69.5%!
Turning to the economy and stock market, as stated on the next graphic we’ve still 46 missing Economic Barometer metrics — some of which according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics shan’t ever be calculated — due to the recent StateSide government “shutdown”. Still, last Thursday came a “data dump” for seven weeks of back-dated Initial Jobless Claims. And all told for last week, 21 metrics hit the Baro of which 13 improved period-over-period: thus we’ve the up lurch in its blue line, even as the S&P 500 came further unglued. At least we can look forward to the Santa Claus Rally, right?
“Uh, those don’t always happen, mmb…”
Squire (as usual) has the facts at his fingertips: for the S&P’s 24 Decembers century-to-date, eight (33%) have been net negative. Sorry, Santa, should it not ensue. Meanwhile, here’s the Baro to view:
As for Gold, we’ll watch how the new Short trend unfolds. If such history from the past two years holds, for buyers ’tis a time to be bold! Nonetheless, in any event, hang on to your Gold!
Oh Squire, you shouldn’t have… Rather, go fetch the rain-chilled Taittinger!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
21 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
We’ve presently the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best correlation currently is negative between the Bond and the Spoo. The latter thus far today has traded to its lowest level (6539) since 08 September, the selling rather anticipated given the ongoing — indeed leading — plunge of the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). Yesterday saw a “data dump” from the Dept. of Labor for some seven Initial Jobless Claim reports as the Econ Baro continues to bring in metrics missing from the recent StateSide government “shutdown”; scheduled for today is November’s revised UofM Sentiment Survey. Tomorrow brings the 836th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And we’ve reached the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, for which the S&P 500 year-over-year has been well above its average improvement, but remains well below the foundation needed to support the hyper-high levels of the S&P.
20 November 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as -1^08 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as just -15 points “low”, Oil as only -0.37 points “low” and the Spoo as a scant -11 points low; however with respect to the latter, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 54.3x and the yield 1.171% vs. 3.772% annualized for the 3-month U.S. T-Bill. As to the Econ Baro, the BLS has announced there shan’t be a Payrolls report for October; however, that for September is to be released today, as is November’s Philly Fed Index, plus October’s Existing Home sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
19 November 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
At present, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at the Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing constancy, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 30mn Price Oscillator and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Price Oscillator; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, the Bond’s 15mn MACD, and the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Moneyflow. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are accelerating their drop, as also is the case for both Copper and Oil. The Econ Baro is sensitive to missing metrics finally coming to the fore, albeit rather sporadically; scheduled for today are October’s Housing Starts/Permits and August’s overdue Trade Deficit.
18 November 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time
Gold — as we’ve been anticipating — has provisionally flipped its 17-week parabolic Long trend to Short; confirmation arrives at Friday’s settle, (barring price first making a record high above 4398); currently price is 3997 and presently below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are Silver and the Spoo; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. As noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linreg (see Market Trends) in real-time has rotated from positive to negative, suggestive of still lower S&P 500 levels; the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency through yesterday is the 1hr Moneyflow; mind too the separately-calculated MoneyFlow for the Index itself on our S&P page. Due today for the Econ Baro are November’s NAHB Housing Index, along with October’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, (for which there is as yet no September data).
17 November 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Silver and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update points to Friday’s precious metals’ price slides as potentially leading to piercing Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend as this week unfolds: the low thus far today is 4051 and the parabolic flip price for the week is 4004; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 103 points. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are (in real-time) down to their 0% axis as the trend rotates from positive toward negative, barring price getting a firm rally in these next few days. Due for the Econ Baro is the NY State Empire Index for November; 54 metrics remain missing from the government “shutdown” and — even having ended — its spillover effect of ongoing unreported data. And this is the final week of Q3 Earnings Season.
The Gold Update: No. 835 – (15 November 2025) – “Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 835th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise“
Recall from last week’s piece our notion of the prices for both Gold and Silver “basing” rather then succumbing to indications of further downside?
“Right, mmb, ’cause your ‘Baby Blues’ of trend consistency were still dropping, but prices were holding…”
Spot-on as ever you are, Squire. And following such “basing”, this past week saw the precious metals soar to the sky, notably so Silver which on Thursday recorded another All-Time High at 54.42 … only to then fall on Friday from the blue. To be sure, come that record high, Silver was up as much as +12.8% in just four trading days, then settling yesterday (Friday) at 50.40 with still a welcome +4.5% gain for the week. Gold also come Thursday saw its price fly, reaching as high as 4250 (+6.0% then week-to-date) only to also suffer demise with a comparatively weaker weekly gain of +1.9% in closing at 4084.
Specific to Gold, its recent weekly losing streak was held to three. However, this past up week has left little room for the parabolic Long trend to continue, (barring price shooting higher come Monday). Gold’s expected daily trading range is now 103 points and the weekly 178 points. But as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, from the current 4084 price to the “flip-to-Short” level at 4004 is just -80 points from here, and thus is well within reach of a single day’s trading session. Too, during Friday’s demise, Gold high-to-low fell -183 points (-4.3%), i.e. its present trading momentum is negative:
As well, this is a fine opportunity to share from the website the Market Magnets for Gold below on the left with Silver on the right. Derived from the Market Profiles, a Market Magnet is essentially the volume-weighted consensus price across the past fortnight. We refer to it as a “Magnet” as ’tis difficult for price to stray too far away before snapping back to the Magnet, (which itself, of course, doesn’t stay static). Both panels show the last three months-to-date, price being the thin line and the Magnet — as labeled at right — the thick line. The oscillator at the foot of each panel is the difference of price less Magnet. And when price penetrates the Magnet, ’tis the near-term direction in which to trade, (although as we regularly caution: “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”) That nonetheless stated, both metals now look poised to pierce their respective Magnets to the downside:
In staying with the three months-to-date theme, here next we’ve the daily bars and (as Squire referenced) “Baby Blues”, the dots which depict the consistency of trend. Below for both Gold at left and Silver at right we’ve encircled the aforementioned “basing” period prior to last week’s rallies. And for both metals, such price climbs have been sufficient to reverse the “Baby Blues” from their respective declines. That however noted, the rightmost bar in each case shows the bulk of Friday’s gains having evaporated:
In turn, such price pullback is well-reflected in the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). The single white bars (present prices) in each panel are currently at the midpoints of these last two weeks, with a bevy of labeled support and resistance levels all ’round:
Still, what need be rounded up is all the missing data for the Economic Barometer. Through the concluded (for now) StateSide government “shutdown” — plus these initial days beyond — 54 of 75 incoming Econ Baro metrics have gone unreported, if even calculated. (Wednesday’s White House expectedly-biased presser included: “…The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period…”)
Politics aside, the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting (09-10 December) shall have a dearth of data with which not to deal, in turn affecting in the Policy Statement their otherwise boilerplate phrase “…the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook…” ‘Course, a good three weeks of data comes due between now and then … to the extent it can be pieced together as the government reporting bureaus come back on line.
As for the 21 metrics privately reported during the “shutdown”, period-over-period saw nine improve and 12 worsen; (we’ll do our part to try to fax that fact over to the FOMC). Either way at the end of it all, here’s the Baro on balance still standing tall, but sans so many metrics that it could well fall:
And per the above graphic, is the S&P 500 (“live” price/earnings ratio 54.4x) wisely waving the white flag? Our preference is instead the Gold flag as we go to the Stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 4392 (20 October 2025)
2025’s High: 4392 (20 October 2025)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 4374 (20 October 2025)
10-Session directional range: up to 4248 (from 3938) = +310 points or +7.9%
Trading Resistance: Profile notables 4087 / 4119 / 4137 / 4206 / 4238
Gold Currently: 4084, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 103 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4079
Trading Support: Profile notables 4052 / 4015 / 3994 / 3979 / 3961 / 3948
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 4004
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3890
The 300-Day Moving Average: 3168 and rising
2025’s Low: 2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
Let’s wind it up here with a brief revisit of Nvidia about which we mused in last 12 July’s missive. At today’s writing, NVDA again is at the top of the S&P pops, sporting a spritely market capitalization of $4.6T, which would make it the fourth-largest nation by nominal Gross Domestic Product in the world! However, (for those of you scoring at home), that compares to its present balance sheet net worth of “only” $100B.
Now: imagine you are buying in the States a new house, the median value for which in August was $413,500. Query: would you instead pay $19,108,377 for that house? Obviously no. Yet if NVDA today was that house, that’s how much you’d pay for it, (were you a wealthy, albeit daft, WestPalmBeacher down there).
“But, mmb, the price of NVDA is discounting its future earnings.”
Squire, a word to the wise is sufficient: the future is now.
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
14 November 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; cac volume for Oil is rolling from December into that for January; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, with Oil exceptionally having already traced 128% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday, both the Bond and Spoo respectively fell below their most volume-dominant Market Profile support levels and crossed beneath their Market Magnets. Too yesterday, Silver traded to an all-time high at 54.42 and the Gold/Silver ratio looks to finish the week below 80x for the first weekly settle under that level since 12 July ’24: more on all that in tomorrow’s 835th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update. Due but not necessarily arriving today for the Econ Baro are October’s PPI, Retail sales, and September’s Business Inventories.
13 November 2025 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Similar to this past Monday, Gold — and especially Silver — recorded very firm trading sessions yesterday: so robust was Silver (+4.2%) that the Gold/Silver ratio was driven down to 78.9x, the lowest reading in better than a year (since 22 Oct ’24). However in a 180° turnabout, Oil — after having seen both its Market Value and Market Magnet measures turn bullish on Tuesday — whirled ‘right back down below both indicators, the -4.2% drop ranking sixth-worst year-to-date. Presently, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. StateSide, the government “shutdown” has concluded with 45 metrics missing for the Econ Baro, to the extent they eventually are updated; due as well for today are October’s CPI, Treasury Budget and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims, should bureaus be up and running in time to report these items.
12 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
Copper and the Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is thus far is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow and Silver’s 6hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis the leaders are Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, The Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow and Oil’s 4hr Parabolics. Oil yesterday confirmed moves above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and Market Magnet; by Market Profiles, Oil’s notable volume-dominant supports are 60.60 and 60.10, however there is resistance at 61.00. ‘Tis again a day without scheduled metrics due for the Econ Baro, (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown” which may be finally resolved fairly quickly).
11 November 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s firm up moves for the precious metals from their basing processes were sufficient to now find their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having turned higher in real-time, albeit the actual linreg trends remain negative; nonetheless, on a points basis, yesterday was Gold’s second-best net gain (+116) for the year-to-date and for Silver (+2.18) third-best; by percentage, the day ranked sixth-best for Gold (+2.9%), and again third-best for Silver (+4.5%); by their Market Profiles, Gold (currently 4136) finds its nearest notable volume-dominant support at 4087, whilst for Silver (currently 50.50) ’tis 49.90. Yesterday’s +1.5% gain for the S&P 500 was further supported by a 2.1% gain in its MoneyFlow as regressed into S&P points; however, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is a treacherous 57.7x. Again, nothing for the Econ Baro is scheduled for today.
10 November 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Indications are the StateSide government “shutdown” may be resolved this week; that noted, no regularly scheduled metrics are due for the Econ Baro until Thursday; and since the start of the “shutdown” 45 metrics remain missing. For the BEGOS Markets at this instant, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo, and session volatility is moderate. Even as by Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver, The Gold Update points to the precious metals as having been basing, and both are well up today. There are two weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, and although year-over-year improvement on balance is running at an above-average pace with a median bottom-line increase of +9.4%, earnings essentially need to double to get the P/E of the S&P 500 ( the “live” reading 56.3x) down to a far more realistic valuation.
The Gold Update: No. 834 – (08 November 2025) – “Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 834th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week“
Four weeks ago for the first time ever, Gold settled above 4000, indeed at 4036 on Friday, 10 October. A week hence, Gold bettered that level with a Friday settle at 4268 on 17 October. And whilst Gold’s three successive Friday settles all have still topped the 4000 milestone, each in turn has been lower: from then 4126 to 4013 and now to yesterday’s weekly close a tad lower still to 4008.
“So yeah, three down weeks in a row, mmb, but aren’t you being a bit picky?”
Squire, partially picky perhaps, yet with this pointed reprise from last week’s piece: “…the last time Gold posted … three consecutive down weeks was … one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November)…” Now a year later in 2025, Gold has again recorded three consecutive down weeks ending 24 October through 07 November. How’s that for seasonality(!) And thus from price’s All-Time High recorded just 15 trading days ago on 20 October at 4398, the yellow metal presently is off -8.9% … which is “noise” considering year-to-date Gold is up a net +51.9%, (and Silver the precious metals’ leader +64.6%).
Regardless, over these many years of The Gold Update (our 16th anniversary edition slated for 22 November), we’ve on occasion quoted — irrespective of price — the late great Richard Russell’s maxim that “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold“. Such statement until very recently essentially has been a truism ever since Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71, (even in having to weather price’s -45.7% decline from September 2011 into December 2015). For throughout — until that landmark week ending just this past 03 October — the market price of Gold has mathematically been subordinate to its Fair Value. But today, per the opening Scoreboard, Gold at 4008 is +120 points above its Fair Value of 3888.
Thus, from the “Feet on the Ground Dept.” — with the highest respect to Mr. Russell’s maxim — we are reminded of that stated by The Gold Update’s initial charter reader (JGS, whom we paraphrase): “The day to sell Gold is the day that everybody else wants it.”
And so it came to pass into this past summer’s end that Gold by the public eye metamorphosed from its discarded relic status into that of a meme stock, which in a mere 22 trading days (from 19 September into 20 October) soared +18.2% to the 4398 All-Time High, again in accordance with everyone having instantaneously become a Gold expert. And to extrapolate that compounding daily rate (+0.815%) for one year “would” exponentially bring Gold by next 19 September to (hold your breath) 28,262 … just in case you’re scoring at home.
So with everybody suddenly jumping onto the Gold Wagon, did you accommodate them by, (as our good StateSide mate THR would state) “taking a few chippies off the table”? Just don’t get carried away.
To be sure, across Gold’s recent three-week pullback of -8.9%, the past two weeks (albeit downers) are appearing more as a basing period, indeed with daily volatility slowing. Per the website, here we’ve the “expected daily trading range” (EDTR) for both Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. For you WestPalmBeachers down there, this neither is price nor its actual daily range; rather from one year ago-to- date ’tis the trading range we “guesstimate” for each ensuing trading day. And clearly by the rightmost declines, recent excitability over the precious metals is now coming off the boil:
Moreover, Gold’s trading range for the entirety of this past week was “only” 107 points (from 4043 down to 3936): ’twas the narrowest weekly stint of the past six. Thus as volatility is slowing, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date. And therein note with 16 weeks of the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend in place, the remaining wiggle room from here (4008) to the “flip-to-Short” price for this next week at 3936 is but 72 points, i.e. within one session’s EDTR. So might we see a fourth consecutive down week for Gold? Heaven forbid! What might the mass of newly-minted Gold experts be thinking?
Irrespective of how “long” continues this parabolic Long trend, Gold’s “other” blue dots — indeed those “Baby Blues” that depict the consistency of trend — are in full plummet as next displayed at lower left for price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date. And you regular readers well know the tune: 
“Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” –[mmb, circa 2000 A.D.] But as leerily leading are the Blues, price again is basing more than further falling, having already come well off the 4398 All-Time High. As well by the 10-day Market Profile at lower right, Gold looks nicely nested in that “fat” volume-dominant trading zone spanning as braced from 4022 down to 3990:
Similarly so, Sister Silver is cheering her apparent basing, even as her “Baby Blues”, too, further their fall (below left). Unlike Gold however, the white metal’s Profile (below right) is indicative of price having not been as suppressed across the past fortnight. To wit, the Gold/Silver ratio two weeks ago was 85.2x, whereas ’tis now 83.1x. Regardless, given the century-to-date average ratio being 69.4x, Silver remains the more attractive metal: priced to that average ratio today, Silver rather than at 48.23 would be nearly +20% higher at 57.76. So hang on to sweet Sister Silver!
Let’s next go to what little we know of the Econ Baro. As therein noted, from October-to-date we’ve 45 missing metrics; so who knows the real stance of the dark blue Economic Barometer line, the StateSide government “shutdown” still in full stride:
As for Q3 Earnings Season (with still two weeks to run), year-over-year results have increased at an above-average pace: 71% of the 428 reporting S&P 500 constituents have improved their respective bottom lines from Q3 a year ago; typically ’tis only around 66%. That’s the Good News.
Now for the Bad News: the median earnings per share gain (encompassing 420 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is +9.4%; such improvement instead ought be ’round +100% just to get the price/earnings ratio back down to some reasonable valuation and the yield (1.172%) more competitive with three-month U.S. annualized dough (3.757%). For as shown in the above graphic, such p/e is presently 55.9x, (the formula provided for proof). “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) begs to differ with 29.3x; but as we’ve stated before, if actually fed that formula, “AI” replies ’tis incapable of obtaining the answer.
Thus be it the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash or the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash, we — as do many others with whom we communicate — await the inevitable S&P “Dash for Cash!” crash. After all, given the S&P’s current market capitalization of $59.5T supported by a liquid money supply (“M2” basis) of “only” $22.4T, ’twill be a heckova train wreck … perhaps further derailed by Gold?
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
07 November 2025 – 08:53 Central Euro Time
At present we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. Gold, currently 4013, is net “unch” for this week: ’tis the line in the sand to avoid a third straight down week; more of ‘course, in tomorrow’s 834th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At Market Trends, save for Copper and Oil, the “Baby Blues of linreg consistency are falling for the sixth other BEGOS components. For all eight markets, their best pure swing Market Rhythms are as follows: Bond 30mn Moneyflow, Euro and Swiss Franc their 4hr MACDs, Gold 4hr Price Oscillator, Silver 6hr Price Oscillator, Copper 2hr Parabolics, Oil 2hr Price Oscillator, and Spoo 15mn MACD. The StateSide government “shutdown” shall preclude today’s release of October Payrolls data; but awaiting the Econ Baro is the UofM Sentiment Survey for October, plus late in the session September’s Consumer Credit.
06 November 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
The Euro plus the three element of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. By Market Trends, linregs are positive for Copper, Oil and the Spoo, and negative for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver. That noted, yesterday Gold crossed back above its Market Value and Silver back above its Market Magnet; the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency currently is the 4hr Price Oscillator, whilst for the white metal ’tis the 15mn Moneyflow. And the Bond yesterday moved below its most volume-dominant Market Profile support (117^14, price now 116^17). As the StateSide “shutdown” continues, the following metrics due today for the Econ Baro shall go missing: Q3’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, September’s Wholesale Inventories, and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.
05 November 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Whilst higher today, the precious metals’ “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to cascade (see Market Trends). Notably by Market Values, Gold finally has fully reverted to its smooth valuation line after having been above it for 53 consecutive trading days (since 20 August); by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant zone of overhead resistance spans from 3990-to-4039; similarly for Silver ’tis from 47.75-to-48.60. The Dollar Index at this instant is precisely 100.000 after basically having been below that level for the past three months. And the Econ Baro does receive two non-government metrics today: October’s ADP Employment and the ISM(Svc) Index, (the StateSide shutdown continuing following a 14th-failed Senate vote last evening).
04 November 2025 – 08:48 Central Euro Time
The Bond is currently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s 21-day linreg has rotated to negative; with 3975 thus far today’s low, again, should 3901 be penetrated by week’s end, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall flip to Short. The Spoo today has closed its up gap from the opening back on 27 October; too, the daily MACD is approaching a negative crossover, and the daily Moneyflow study has dropped below the key mid-point level of 50. Today’s Econ Baro metrics that shan’t be received (give the StateSide “shutdown”) are September’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
03 November 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time
‘Tis a fairly quiet start to November for the BEGOS Markets; presently the Bond is below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility is light. The Gold Update confirms our expectations for price having had a second consecutive down week; however year-to-date, there’ve yet to be three negative weeks in-a-row; Gold’s “expect weekly trading range” (172 points) brings the weekly parabolic Long trend into jeopardy should 3901 (last week’s low) be tested as ’tis “within range”. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, in real-time we’ve the Bond as not quite a full point “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.025 points “low”, Gold +89 points “high”, Oil -1.04 points “low” and the Spoo +126 points “high”. Given the ongoing StateSide “shutdown”, for the second consecutive month there shan’t be the otherwise due Construction Spending for September, making for a 35th missing Econ Baro metric; however October’s ISM(Mfg) shall be reported.
The Gold Update: No. 833 – (01 November 2025) – “Gold Furthers Fall as Called”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 833rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Furthers Fall as Called“
Through the 44 trading weeks thus far for 2025, Gold therein has recorded a net weekly gain 31 times (70%). Further, for the year’s 13 net losing weeks, never have there been three in-a-row. However, for just the fifth time this year, Gold has again recorded back-to-back down weeks. Shall that extend to three? Let’s see.
Gold settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4013. Albeit a down week, ’twas a fourth consecutive weekly close above the 4000 milestone level. Yet en route, price furthered its fall to the first of three “fib-based” retracement levels herein called a week ago. Indeed last Tuesday at 04:24 GMT, Gold traded down to the first level of 3985, continuing that day lower still to 3901, a “scant” 44 points above the second noted level of 3857, (the third being 3729). We say “scant” given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is now 128 points; at the turn of this century, it took nearly three years to initially move higher by that many points; now such range is “expected” in just one day.
“But for those two other levels, mmb, are you saying they can’t be reached ’cause price won’t go down for a third straight week?”
Dear Squire, price certainly can go on multi-week bearish runs. Recall during 2016 for the seven weeks ending 11 November through 23 December, Gold recorded net losses for all of them, preceded by a similar seven-week down stint during summer of 2015. Moreover, the last time Gold posted only three consecutive down weeks was almost exactly one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November) … just in case you’re scoring at home. And (pun intended), Gold weakly finished this past week — yes, able to regain 4000 — but ’twas the lowest weekly settle of the past four.
In the midst of it all, Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend — again by Tuesday’s 3901 low — was within a day’s range of flipping to Short. And now for the ensuing week, 3901 becomes that flip-to-Short level as stated in our graphic of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date:
“Unless Gold moves higher, right mmb?”
Squire, Gold’s near-term technicals — having been so thoroughly upside strong of late — are now showing signs they’re running out of puff. To be sure, an intraweek drop from here at 4013 down to 3901 would be a skid of -112 points; however, Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 172 points such that a third consecutive down week could well flip the trend to Short. But again, year-to-date, Gold has yet to record three successive down weeks, (not that ’tis a trend upon which we’d depend…)
As well, Gold by its BEGOS Market Value (derived by Gold’s movement relative to all five primary BEGOS components, namely the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil & S&P 500) is now only +93 points above its smooth valuation line. Recall just two weeks ago Gold being better than +600 points above same and our cautioning that price inevitably reverts to the mean, (in this case the Market Value line which presently is 3920). Notice the exquisite timing of means reversion being coincident with everyone recently having become a Gold expert. Liquid markets are a beautiful thAng:
Truly beautiful, too, is the year’s ongoing leadership of our Metals Triumvirate in the BEGOS Market Standings, still pristinely led by Sweet Sister Silver. With ten months now in the books, here’s how it all looks:
As to their travel from a month ago-to-date, here are those markets’ respective daily bars, grey regression trendlines, and beloved “Baby Blues”, the dots indicative of each trendline’s consistency. Of import (if given little FinMedia notice): the Dollar Index has risen five of the past seven weeks. Thus we’ve the negative trendlines for both the Euro and Swiss Franc … and now for Sister Silver, too. Note that Gold’s trendline has all but rotated to negative, the “Baby Blues” in full cascade. Time to get a grip … else further dip!
Amplifying the precious metals having pulled back from the highs of two weeks ago are the associated equities. Gold’s All-Time Closing High back on 20 October at 4374 has since fallen -8.3% to the current 4013 level. However, every equity product in the following graphic has exceeded that pace of pullback, ranging from -9.0% to -14.7%. As we on occasion quip: “Live by the leverage, die by the leverage”. Clearly, the amplitude of the chart’s Gold line is mild vis-à-vis those of the equities. Regardless, year-over-over the overall performances remain remarkable. Therein, Franco-Nevada (FNV) is +36%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +41%, Gold itself +43%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +59%, Newmont (NEM) +69%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +71%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +81%:
Turning to the 10-day Market Profiles, both precious metals seemingly are positioned in and around their most volume-dominate prices of the past two weeks. For the yellow metal on the left, the denoted 4123-4022 area appears pivotable, whilst for the white metal on the right ’tis her 48.60-47.75 zone:
‘Course it being month-end, we’ve next the Gold Structure graphic of price’s monthly bars from the year 2010-to-date. The lower areas of the chart still display the many stratified price areas through which we arduously struggled with Gold until finally, just two years ago, “The Infamous Triple Top” was broken, Gold having then been off to the races ever since. The third of those three tops was 2085 on 04 May 2023, from which to the present All-Time High of 4398 is a gain of +111% in just 2 1/2 years. As doubtless (barring a deflationary depression) Gold never again shall trade sub-2000, we’re “considering” future versions of this graphic to not extend back past the year 2020. Still, those older areas are an amazing reminder of what was endured and then how far we’ve come. As for “The Now”, the rightmost red-braced “failure candle” (October) is exemplary of what happens when — again — suddenly everyone’s a Gold expert, (which for you WestPalmBeachers suggests “The top is in!” … but more broadly, we doubt it):
One can only wonder if StateSide “the top is in” for the economy as there is little data upon which to go. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted (not unanimously) to lower its Bank’s Funds Rate -25bp to the 3.75%-4.00% target range, even as the Policy Statement opened with “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.” Available, indeed: given the “shutdown”, only 15 of the 49 metrics due for the Economic Barometer during October arrived. And of those 15, just six improved period-over-period. There’s your “moderate pace”, baby. Too, there’s the S&P 500: is “the top in” there? Note our table in the Econ Baro of those constituents priced (given almost no earnings) beyond all sensibility. Better queried: “Have we crashed yet??” Here’s the Baro:
To wrap this week, regular readers of The Gold Update know we (as just done) “rib” those “WestPalmBeachers down there”, the claim-to-fame of south Florida’s brightest bulbs being “Hanging Chad” back in 2000 during “W vs. Algore”.
Technically, Florida is one of 50 states comprising the federal union of the U.S. Fundamentally however, Florida is more of a foreign country unto itself. Its pencil-thin panhandle barely clings to the southernmost coastline of Alabama and Georgia. The distance from Miami to Havana, Cuba is just 70% the distance to Jacksonville. And ’tis written the State’s average elevation is 100 feet (30m). Florida is FLAT, man. (In ’64, we visited an auntie there, and given the lack of depth perception, once was enough).
But to the point (hat-tip A.C.): assuming ratification by the state’s legislature, eight months from this day on 01 July 2026, Florida shall officially acknowledge both Gold and Silver as legal tender in coin form, and without sales tax on purchases thereof. To quote Grace Slick with The Jefferson Airplane at Woodstock back in ’69: “It’s the new dawn!”
So for Florida, with Gold and Silver, let fiat be gone!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
31 October 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
All eight BEGOS Markets are currently within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is light. It remains the case amongst the five primary BEGOS components that’ve we’ve no notable correlations therein. Tomorrow’s 833rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite price’s return back down into the 3000s (as anticipated), albeit ’tis presently 4031 and By Market Values still +110 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; similarly, the Spoo is +156 points above same. Silver had a firm day yesterday in climbing back up through 47.75-48.15 resistance zone (see Market Profiles). We await October’s Chi PMI for the Econ Baro; however, today’s missing reports due to the StateSide “shutdown” are Q3’s Employment Cost Index plus September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index.
30 October 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Presently, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is firmly moderate. Unsurprisingly, the FOMC with little data upon which to decide nonetheless reduced the FedFunds interest rate 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. Despite yesterday’s “unch” session, the S&P 500 is (yet again) extremely “textbook overbought”, buoyed almost solely by NVDA and to an extent AAPL; breadth yesterday was poor (25%/75%); the Spoo by Market Values shows (in real-time) as +180 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today, given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, the Bureau of Economic Analysis shan’t be furnishing the first peek at Q3 GDP, nor the Bureau of Labor Statistics the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims. Q3 Earnings Season has reached the midway mark: for the S&P 500, 72% have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago, an above-average pace; of course, the overall level of S&P earnings remains far too low to maintain the current Index levels, especially with a risk-full yield of just 1.126% vs. a risk-less 3.730% on a 3mo. T-Bill.
29 October 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Both EuroCurrencies are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as is Oil, whilst above same are the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold yesterday traded down to as low as 3901, which as posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro) was down through the first of three potential “fib” levels, followed then by 3857 and 3729; both precious metals today, however, are higher, even as their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to drop. Our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are currently (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 30mn Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Gold’s 30mn Parabolics, plus (on a 24-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 60mn Parabolics. For the Econ Baro we await September’s Pending Home Sales. And late in the session comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for a -0.25% FedFunds interest rate cut.
28 October 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil, are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. As anticipated in The Gold Update, Gold and Silver continue to correct, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) furthering their falls in real-time; indeed we may see Silver’s trend having rotated from positive to negative by tomorrow or Thursday; mind as well the widened Market Ranges for both precious metals (Gold’s EDTR for today is 129 points whilst that for Silver is 2.42 points). The P/E of the S&P 500 has further skyrocketed to in excess of 60x due in large part to INTC’s “ttm” earnings now but $0.01: the P/E of INTC is now 2,822.5x (see S&P 500, Valuations and Rankings). Despite the StateSide “shutdown”, the Econ Baro will take in some actually data today: October’s Consumer Confidence.
27 October 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
(Note: Europe is now on winter hours). The week gets underway presently finding the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update sees further near-term downside for price as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) accelerate lower; indeed Gold today has moved below a shelf of support (see Market Profiles) spanning from 4132-4123, (price now 4083); and in real-time Gold is +250 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant (+0.9%), its P/E would be 50.9x. The week’s highlight comes Wednesday via the Policy Statement from the FOMC. And due today (but unlikely to be reported given the “shutdown”) are Durable Orders for September.
The Gold Update: No. 832 – (25 October 2025) – “Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 832nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!“
Gold — in having the prior week been “meme’d” — this past week got “bean’d”. And anticipatedly so, for as you by now well know, Gold had gotten — and indeed still is — “ahead of itself”, a phrase familiar to those readers of The Gold Update who’ve been with us when first coined it some 14 years ago.
On the heels of last week’s piece “Gold Goes Meme!” wherein price had traded to as high as 4392, this past week saw a scant six points of further upside on Monday to the now latest All-Time High of 4398 before getting “bean’d” and falling -377 points (-8.6%) to Wednesday’s low of 4021. As noted Tuesday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold’s intra-day fall of a full -300 points was far and away its worst same-day points-loss in history. Silver also that day suffered her historically seventh-worst intra-day points loss of -4.50.
It happens. Certainly so when suddenly — to again reprise — “…everyone’s become a Gold expert…” (Recall the urban legend of JFK’s pop “Jumpin’ Joe” knowing ’twas time to sell back in ’29 when the shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips).
“But you’re no Kennedy, mmb…”
Squire can’t resist the infamous, historical dig. But Gold in recent weeks reached that silly state of investor euphoria: “Well, the Big Banks are loadin’ up, ya know…” Gold last crossed above our BEGOS Markets’ smooth valuation line back on 20 August (price then 3392). Since just that date, the herd has taken Gold up to last Monday’s record high of 4398. ‘Twas an increase for Gold of +1,006 points (+29.7%) in just 43 trading days! (Imagine having been Long 100 Gold contracts [margin requirement $1,650,000] for a trading profit of $10,060,000 [+610% account gain] in only two months; pretty good juju, that!)
Nonetheless, as herein depicted three weeks ago, Gold en route has well surpassed its Fair Value (now 3875 per the opening Scoreboard). Thus justifiably “ahead of itself” indeed is our Gold, settling out this most recent week yesterday (Friday) at 4127, which is +252 points above that Fair Value. Moreover, Gold is now +314 points above its smooth valuation line as we below see, wherein Gold’s movements are valued relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500). Note therein Dow Jones Newswires’ Tuesday assessment of the (by then) -6.9% correction being a “crash”:
“So, mmb, where does price go from here?”
Likely lower still for both precious metals, Squire, at least within the vacuum of our linear regression calculus. A function of the night work is our internal table of BEGOS Markets’ “Baby Blues” signals which alert us to potential change in near-term trend as consistency thereto begins to break apart. The table at left is per Wednesday’s close confirming a “SELL” for Silver. This is because her “Baby Blues” in the one-month chart beneath the table fell below the key +80% axis per the red encircled dot. Then come Friday at right so, too, was confirmed a “SELL” for Gold. To be sure, both metals’ trends remain positive by their respective grey diagonal lines, but less steeply so. And as the trading herd later begins to figure that out, we “ought” see still lower prices:
“But how about some actual numbers, mmb…”
Squire, let’s initially acknowledge per the above pair of charts that price for the present has ceased falling; rather, ’tis for the moment consolidating per the rightmost three bars for both metals. But assuming the “Baby Blues” continue to descend, the recent price declines likely are not at an end. Let’s first consider the aforeshown chart of Gold’s BEGOS Market Value. Should Gold (4127) work lower as value (3813) works higher, a back-of-the-napkin jot finds the mid-point at 3970. Such breaching below the 4000 milestone could then encourage buying. As for Silver (48.41) — whilst broadly she remains very attractively priced relative to Gold — the Gold/Silver ratio average across the past 21 trading days is 83.3x. Thus priced to that average, Gold at 3970 would place Silver at 47.66.
So hardly any substantive downside damage there. However, should the correction distance be further down, we came up with a few retracement levels, courtesy of our old mate Leonardo “Fibonacci” Bonacci basis Gold’s last consolidation area which spanned from April through August. We’ve thus three paired Gold/Silver downside ideas: 3985/47.84 … 3857/46.30 … 3729/44.77 … just in case you’re scoring at home.
Rather, if Gold instead merely zooms higher from here, that’s fine. Just be wary (again) “Gold has gotten ahead of itself”, each ounce willingly bought being an ounce willingly sold.
For 2025, 43 trading weeks are now complete. Therein, Gold has compiled 31 up weeks (+2.2% average gain) and 12 down weeks (-1.9% average loss). Indeed, 11 of the past 13 weeks have been up. Year-to-date, Gold is now +56.4%, still bettered by Silver +65.3%. And as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the aforementioned “consolidation area” appears relatively contained mid-chart by the red-dotted parabolic Short trend, during which stint price didn’t materially drop a wit. As for the ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend (now 14 weeks in duration), note the “flip-to-Short” (bad idea) level for the ensuing week is 3840, some -287 points south of here (4127). So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 165 points, a second consecutive down week ought not thwart the Long trend:
Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. Not surprisingly, price is well-down in both cases, Gold notably just a few points above its most volume-dominant supporter of 4123. As for Sister Silver, she looks safe down to her denoted 47.90 level … but should Gold fold, Sister Silver too shall further her downside mode:
Meanwhile, the Economic Barometer remains unfulfilled: 39 metrics are to have been received since the start of the StateSide government “shutdown” effective 01 October. But with 26 thus far missing, just 13 have been received — including a surprise on Friday: September’s Consumer Price Index was issued; (more on that in the wrap). Otherwise, amongst all 13 of the incoming metrics, just five improved period-over-period. Lookin’ a bit rickety, our Baro, as we ever-anticipate for stocks “Stormy Weather” –[Arlen/Koehler, ’33]. And yes, Virginia, if you actually perform the math (a science apparently unemployed by the modern-day money manager), the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 settled yesterday at 50.5x, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means portfolio theory is a thing of the past):
So as teased, we wrap with yesterday’s surprise release of the CPI, (both the headline and core readings a bit hot for the Fed’s liking). But our immediate response was: “Did the ‘shutdown’ just end?” Quickly we checked … but … no. Yet, after all, the CPI like so many Econ Baro metrics is released by a federal government agency, in this case the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which did not first report the scheduled Producer Price Index.
But then we found out what happened with respect to the CPI: in order for the Social Security Administration (which is not fully “shutdown”) to keep benefit check payouts in pace with inflation, “They gotta have that CPI, baby!” We thus give a tip of the cap to whoever he/she/it was that snuck into the otherwise shuttered BLS — perhaps heroically in the wee hours on personal time — to gather, crunch, arrange and release the data. ‘Tis most appreciated and deserving of a year-end bonus.
As to a potentially negative near-term course for Gold, appreciate what ’tis, indeed add to your load!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
24 October 2025 – 08:24 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Copper and the Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s “Baby Blues”(see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have provisionally dropped below their key +80% axis such as (upon day’s-end confirmation) to then expect lower prices near-term; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Gold in real-time shows as +289 points “high”; more on the yellow metal in tomorrow’s 832nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed crossing above their -80% axis: given price in real-time is about -2 points below its own valuation line, near-term we’d expect Oil to visit the mid-63s from the current mid-61s. Due (but likely not arriving) today for the Econ Baro are September’s CPI (<– update, yes CPI reported) and New Home Sales; however, the non-governmental UofM Sentiment Survey for October ought make the trip.
23 October 2025 – 08:49 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are dropping, but have yet to move below their key +80% (as did Silver’s so confirm yesterday); thus far today, both precious metals are stabilizing to this point; however by Market Values, Gold in real-time is +335 points above its smooth valuation line; further of note today for Gold, it has been trading either side of its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight which by the Market Profile is 4123. Given the scattered nature of late amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we find no reasonable correlation — neither positive nor negative — therein. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Existing Home Sales; but with yet another Senate vote such that the StateSide government remains closed, this shall be the fourth consecutive week of missing Initial Jobless Claims.
22 October 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Oil are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, albeit Gold already has traced 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As stated yesterday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold recorded its largest intraday loss by points in history: -300 from 4393 to 4093; (on a percentage basis, the -6.8% intraday drop ranked 33rd worst). Regardless, by Market Values, Gold in real-time (4159) is still +380 points above its smooth valuation line (3779). As for Silver, her intraday drop of -8.7% was enough to pull her “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency in real-time today below the key +80% level; we thus expect still-lower prices for Sister Silver near-term, and thus likely for Gold as well. Again ’tis a nothing-due day for the Econ Baro (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown”). And Q3 Earnings Season is going well for the S&P 500 with 80% of reported constituents beating their like earnings of Q3 a year ago; problematic of course is that earnings continue to run too low to support the level of the S&P, its futs-adj’d “live” P/E 49.5x at the moment.
21 October 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
None of the BEGOS Markets are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Euro and the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility is mostly moderate. Gold as a “meme stock” has moved excessively above its key valuation levels: currently 4340, Fair Value is 3873 and BEGOS Market Value is 3765; a reversion to the latter’s mean at this point would be -576 points. Too by Market Values, Oil is currently -6.40 points below its smooth valuation line: currently 57.07, Oil is just above its most volume-dominant supporter of 57.00, with near-by resistance spanning from 57.90 to 58.40. The Gold/Silver ratio in real-time is 86.0x as Silver today (-1.9%) is selling off at a faster pace than is Gold (-0.8%). Nothing is scheduled today nor tomorrow for the Econ Baro; the StateSide Senate voted last evening such that the “shutdown” continues.
20 October 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
Copper is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light. The Gold Update likens the yellow metal to trading as a “meme” stock; Gold had similar runs in both 2007/2007 and again in 2011, both of which led to corrections respectively of -34% and -45%; not that we’ll again witness same, however price is better than +300 points above its Fair Value and nearly +500 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As to the S&P 500, its “risk-full” yield is but 1.170% vs. 3.832% annualized for the “risk-less” 3mo T-Bill; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 49.1x at this moment. Given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, incoming data for the Econ Baro may continue to be scant, however due today is the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators for September. <– “Delayed” due to lack of data. And Q3 Earnings Season picks up its pace as the week unfolds.
The Gold Update: No. 831 – (18 October 2025) – “Gold Goes Meme!”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 831st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Goes Meme!“
This past Wednesday evening, Gold having surpassed the 4200 level, our doorbell rang. ‘Twas unexpectedly a fine friend whose first four words excitedly were: “I just bought Gold!!”
Not wanting to spray a cold spritz on our happy camper — Gold at that point trading better than +300 points above Fair Value, let alone better than +500 points above our BEGOS Market Value — we encouragingly replied: “You do intend to hold it for a long time, yes?” … “Well, sure, I guess” came the response. “Great,” we said, “you’ll be fine.” For given time, surely Gold shall further climb … but as we saw yesterday (Friday) hardly in a straight-up line.
Since said enthusiastic chat, Gold went on to the settle the week at 4268, inclusive of All-Time Closing Highs on each of Monday through Thursday, and come Friday an All-Time Intraday High of 4392.
But: then came the El Plungo (technical term): from that intraday high of 4392, Gold plummeted to 4196 in recording the largest intraday loss of -196 points in price’s entire history! By percentage, (for those of you scoring at home), such -4.5% intraday drop ranks in the 98th percentile, (the worst being a -12.1% intraday drop from 321 to 282 away back on 28 September 1999).
To be sure, we’ve written repeatedly through recent editions of The Gold Update as well as in the daily Prescient Commentary that Gold has excessively exceeded its BEGOS Market Value, and now across the past two weeks as well its Fair Value; (note the enhancements to the above Gold Scoreboard). All that stated, the yellow metal year-to-date is now +61.7%.
Moreover, Silver relative to Gold continues to remain “the better value” in spite of settling at a weekly record closing high of 50.63, en route reaching up to 53.77(!)
‘Course, upon Gold further correcting — which we’re fully expecting — the white metal, too, shall be dragged down. But we still say she’s cheap “relative“ to the yellow metal given the Gold/Silver ratio is 84.3x vis-à-vis the century-to-date average of 69.4x. Were Silver priced today to that ratio’s average, she’d be a further +21.6% higher at 61.54. Regardless, the white metal thus far for 2025 is now +72.8%. Yes, really.
“But you’re looking for price to revert to the BEGOS value mean, right mmb?”
For Gold, yes Squire, because it inevitably happens. In appraising Gold vis-à-vis its Market Value (wherein we assess price’s movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500) let’s turn to the following graphic. ‘Tis Gold’s daily closes from one year ago-to-date astride the smooth valuation line to which price always reverts per the oscillator (price less value) in the lower panel. And as depicted, Gold presently at 4268 is +527 points above that value (3741). As the valuation line itself is rising, the midpoint between the two is 4005, albeit price is subject to falling far faster than does the smooth line rise:
“So mmb, price could actually get back down into the 3000s, eh?”
Certainly none of us know, Squire. But Gold historically has a hankering to significantly downward correct. Remember Gold’s great gallop from September 2007 into March 2008? ‘Twas a seven-month +52% run to an All-Time High at 1034; but come October of that year, Gold had then floundered -34% to as low as 681. Too, there was the eight-month +44% run during 2011 from February into September, Gold then reaching that infamous All-Time High of 1923 which would then stay in place for nearly nine years through which price suffered a pullback of -45%. And now from just this past April, Gold has gained +48%. To quote the late, great Yogi Berra, is this going to be “Déjà vu all over again”? On verra, mes amis…
Still, in keeping with our title for this week, the Big Deal is Gold’s rather suddenly having morphed from its “nothing more than an old relic, conservative, non-yielding” status into that of the modern-day meme stock. Next month brings the 16th anniversary of The Gold Update. Across most of that stint, under-owned Gold has been otherwise regularly relegated by financial wizards to the ash heap of forgotten obsolescence, even as century-to-date it has vastly outperformed the S&P 500 by 3x. Now however, that’s all changed. To wit:
TheFinMedia today is rife with “highly-intellectual” pieces underscoring the same Gold-ownership rationale of which we’ve been writing for the past 16 years. As herein penned two missives ago: “…it suddenly seems that everyone’s become a Gold expert…” Honestly, are they just figuring all this out now? Where have they been? In recent weeks we’ve been inundated by friends and acquaintances telling us all about Gold. Gold has gone meme, just as did GameStop, AMC and Bed Bath and Beyond as pushed by the “Let’s all buy high!” crowd. We hope that — unlike those memes — Gold doesn’t follow suit and crash. Nor do we think ’twill. But reversion to the mean (not meme) is in order, as unlike those stocks that were meme’d, Gold shan’t get creamed.
“Still, mmb, price has gone up for nine weeks in-a-row…”
Squire, on a mutually-exclusive basis that has occurred but three other times so far this century, the longest such stint being 12 consecutively higher weeks during the aforementioned uptrend which began in 2007. And Friday’s record-setting intraday points-drop may signify that the top is in place at least for the near-term. Regardless, as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, this past week’s low (4011) is an extreme +5.5% above the dashed linear regression trendline (3804), such deviation century-to-date being nearly off the end of the Bell Curve (in the 93rd percentile):
With respect to Gold potentially correcting at least over the near-term, the above graphic’s graveyard regardless reminds us that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.” Still, let’s next assess the daily bars for the precious metals from three months ago-to-date, featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right. In both cases, the baby blue dots of linear regression trend consistency have been housed above the key +80% axis for nearly six weeks, a firm indication of their sustained uptrends. However, as regular readers and website visitors know, upon the “Baby Blues” sinking below that level, lower prices likely are on the way. And with both metals closing well off their rightmost Friday highs, again a near-term top may be in place:
Too, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), we can see the demise from Friday’s highs. By the labeled volume-dominant prices, Gold would appear to have a bit more underlying support than does Silver. ‘Tis not that rare a condition, especially should Silver couple up with Cousin Copper, whose own “Baby Blues” just confirmed a break below the +80% axis, (which you can view on the website). Thus shall Sweet Sister Silver discard for a time her precious metal pinstripes in exchange for her industrial metal jacket? She does on occasion stray that way… Here are the Profiles:
Unable to materially stray — due to the “shutdown” of the StateSide government — has been the Economic Barometer. From 01 October-to-date, there’ve been 32 scheduled metrics for the Baro … of which just nine have made the trip. Four so did this past week, amongst which three bettered their prior period: October’s New York State Empire and National Association of Homebuilders Indices, along with September’s Treasury Budget. The week’s sole loser was the Philly Fed Index for October. As for the 23 “missing links”, it remains to be seen (should the government ever reconvene) how they’ll affect the Baro’s scene. Until such time passes, here ’tis as is:
Toward wrapping, just a brief word on the S&P 500. ‘Tis Q3 Earnings Season, which so far (whilst still very early) is running well: 79% of the 39 reported constituents have beaten their Q3 of a year ago. Problematic is that the overall level of earnings remains unsupportive of the Index’s level (6664) given the honestly calculated price/earnings ratio (48.9x, the formula for which we’ve herein posted on numerous occasions). And per this next graphic of the past week’s S&P 500 Futures by the hour, the “inching-up buying” is being repetitively met with “slamming-down selling”. Thus, such word to you WestPalmBeachers down there we hope is sufficient:
We close with this hilarious headline of the week, courtesy of The Edge, Malaysia: “Bitcoin, Binance-Linked Coin Struggle After Historic Wipeout”. In perusing the piece, ‘twould seem that corrections of 3%-to-20% are now deemed as “wipeouts”. ‘Twill be (dare we say) edge-of-the-seat stuff to read just how a 30% correction might be so characterized. Just sayin’… “Oh steady on there, lad!”
A pending correction or otherwise for meme-like Gold, one may buy that sold for more to hold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
17 October 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are Silver, Copper and the Spoo, (only Oil is within same), and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. The fragility of the S&P 500 continues, the Spoo notably having lost -132 points in just the last 16 hours; again we point to the leading characteristic of the S&P MoneyFlow page. At close last evening, the Euro by its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) triggered a Long signal, whilst for Copper a Short signal too was confirmed. Q3 Earnings Season is off to a good start for the S&P as 78% thus far having beaten the prior year’s like quarter; of course, problematic remains the overall level of earning is too low to support the S&P given its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of 48.3x at this instant. As the StateSide “shutdown” continues, none of the six metrics due for the Econ Baro today are likely to be released, (including for September Housing/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, IndProd/CapUtil).
16 October 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Silver, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. In a microcosm of last Friday’s S&P plunge, yesterday saw 18 hours worth of Spoo gains then fully evaporate in just four hours: the S&P 500 sellers are quite quick to exit each time the Index runs out of puff; again, mind the S&P MoneyFlow page. Gold is becoming ever-more overbought both by Fair Value and BEGOS Value: the latter measure (in real-time) finds the yellow metal +506 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The StateSide government shutdown continues: due today for the Econ Baro are nine metrics, albeit we’ll likely only receive three: October’s Philly Fed Index and NABH Housing Index, plus September’s Treasury Budget, look to be the only arrivés, whilst left on the shelf shall be data points for September’s wholesale inflation and Retail Sales, August’s Business Inventories, and the prior week’s Jobless Claims.
15 October 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Save for Oil, all seven other BEGOS Markets are presently above their respective Neutral Zone for today, (Oil being within same), and session volatility is moderate. Concern lies with the S&P’s MoneyFlow (see our page thereto) as despite the Index having come off Friday’s low, the Flow is net negative, certainly so on our five-day measure. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three are (on a 10-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow, the same measure for Gold, and the Bond’s 15mn parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve again Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow, Copper’s 15mn MACD and Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow; (note: our S&P MoneyFlow calculation is comprehensively different from the “canned” study we use for the futures markets). Whilst the StateSide Senate could not receive enough votes last evening to end the “shutdown”, the Econ Baro still looks today to October’s NY State Empire Index, (which of course is Fed-generated rather than by a government entity). Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
14 October 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
Gold is the only BEGOS Market at present inside of today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc, with the balance below same; session volatility is mostly robust. Gold earlier this morning touched another All-Time High at 4191, but has since given back the sessions. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are dropping so swiftly (following Friday’s technical damage) that the 21-day linreg trend looks to rotate from positive to negative within the next few days; by its Market Profile, the Spoo’s more volume-dominant resistors are 6671, 6695, 6708 and 6737; there is a wee bit of volume support at 6595; indeed the current volatility for the S&P is creating fragility, and we still sense lower levels in the offing; the Spoo’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 74 points. Again nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro, (the StateSide government “shutdown” notwithstanding); and financials begin populating Q3 Earnings Season.
13 October 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
Gold has tapped yet another All-Time High this morning at 4097; The Gold Update cites price as continuing to look good going forward, but that more immediately ’tis extremely high above its smooth valuation line (in real-time now +391 points “high”; see Market Values); Silver has not followed with an all-time high thus far today. Too, the missive supports a firm case for a significant correction in the S&P 500, which in six hours on Friday gave back a full month’s worth of gains; however, the Spoo is very strong this morning such that the S&P (at this moment) would open +81 points higher (+1.2%), fears over the “Trump n’ China” tariffs concern be somewhat allayed. Presently, all three elements of the Metal Triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones, as too are Oil and the Spoo; below same are the Bond and Swiss Franc, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. Nothing is due until Wednesday for the Econ Baro, which to date in October is missing 11 of the 16 metrics thus far due as the StateSide “shutdown” continues. Q3 earnings Season picks up its pace this week, notably with financial entities reporting.
The Gold Update: No. 830 – (11 October 2025) – “Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 830th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye“
Ya gotta love October. Silver finds fresh sky above 50 even as Gold takes a gut-punch from its new 4081 high, and the S&P at long last says “Goodbye!” Recall our closing query from a week ago?
“I do, mmb. You wrote: ‘Have we crashed yet?’”
And, Squire, so the S&P has … or at least is appearing … to commence a crash. For after all, giving up a full month of stock market gains yesterday (Friday) in just six hours is serious! By Wall Street’s back-of-the-napkin estimate, stock market gains are generally given back at two-to-three times the pace of which they rise. But yesterday’s selling was 21x the pace of a month’s entire gain!
“Also, what do you now mean, mmb, that Gold took a gut-punch, because it is at record highs!”
Squire, let’s summarize all three of these: Silver, Gold, and the S&P.
- Silver was the darling of this past week even in netting a wee loss (-0.9%) by settling yesterday (Friday) at 47.52. Nonetheless, during both Thursday and Friday, “spot” Silver briefly traded for the first time ever over 50, indeed to as high in the sky as 51.24, albeit its more liquid December futures contract did not exceed 49.97, still an All-Time High of its own accord. So: Brava Brava Sista Silva!!
- Gold too recorded new highs in exceeding 4000 on Tuesday at 00:28 GMT as we posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), moving further on Wednesday to the new All-Time High of 4081. But come Thursday Gold got gut-punched in falling intraday high-to-low by -120 points, the eighth-largest same-day points’ loss thus far this century. “Fortunately”, come Friday’s inflationary “Trump Tariff!” scare, Gold recovered to a record weekly close (admittedly -45 points below the week’s high) at 4036. So: Gold wins over Trump n’ China rare earth tariff tricks!
- As for the S&P 500, we’ve gone on and on and on since its post-COVID recovery about the Index’s ridiculous overvaluation in this “Investing Age of Stoopid”; but the tariff indication of inflation — as we’ve oft cautioned stagflation — finally was the catalyst rightly to make it all go wrong. What was amazing, upon the S&P actually opening higher to begin its Friday session, the “live” price/earnings ratio actually touched 50.0x! ‘Twas as if those who actually can do math saw it and declared: “That’s IT! SELL!!“
Regardless of your catalytic choice, ‘twould appear “The Crash” at long last has perhaps begun. So, as to “How low does the S&P go?”, let’s update our 50-year view of the S&P 500 with its yellow-bounded regression channel and red “had COVID never happened” channel. The imbedded photo with the encircled p/e was taken just after Friday’s up opening. Does the S&P return to its regression channel?
“So that little down hitch at the right is a ‘crash’, mmb?”
Squire, remember the “little down hitch” on Monday, 27 March 2000? Come Thursday, 10 October 2002 that little S&P down hitch had morphed into a Huge Down Hitch of -50.5% across those two and one-half years, (aka “The DotComBomb”).
‘Course, no one knows if such magnitude of “crash” has again begun. To be sure, high-level warnings of a stock market “drawdown” (a rather gentle way of expressing it) have been put forth over the past week by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and even the “oh hip-hip!” Bank of England. Either way, we’ll say this: the selling fear on Friday was nothing like we’ve sensed since 2007 into 2009, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there was “that other even worse” -57.7% plunge (aka “The FinCrisis”).
This time ’round, be it the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash, the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash or the “Look Ma! It’s that Assembled Inaccuracy!” crash, we remain wary of more significant S&P 500 downside, certainly in the near-term offing (a stinging double-entendre, if we may so say).
And despite Gold’s gut-punch, the metal on balance is likely good going forward, albeit levels continue to run extremely high above the smooth valuation line borne of price’s movement vis-à-vis those of the primary BEGOS components (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500). To wit, courtesy of the “Reversion to the Mean Dept.” we offer the following two-panel graphic (gleaned from the website). Gold at left is presently priced better than +300 points above its smooth line, whereas the S&P (futures) at right on Friday alone fully reverted to same, and then some. To repeat: yesterday’s session saw the S&P give up a full month of gains since 11 September in a single day! That’s “fear”, baby:
As for Gold’s weekly bars, here they are. A fabulous picture … although perhaps worthy of reprising J.E. Levine’s “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A., ’77]. Regardless, from a year ago-to-date, they’re certainly lookin’ GREAT!
Perhaps not so great, indeed running late, is the Economic Barometer. Of the 16 incoming metrics thus far due in October — given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown” — a mere five have arrived live, including only two this past week. October’s University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey down-ticked a pip, and August’s change in Consumer Credit moved nary a wit. So here’s how the Baro now sits:
Yet sitting ever-pretty are the precious metals. Behold our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. In both cases, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency have been above the key +80% axis for 23 consecutive trading days, (which for those of you scoring at home is longer than a whole month). However within Friday’s S&P 500 chaos, neither metal even as a safe-haven was able to reattain its prior day’s high. Remember the FinCrisis’ “Black Swan” during which “everything” initially went well down? ‘Tis just something of which to be aware:
Too, we’ve the two-panel graphic of the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right). Per the volume-dominant price labels, Gold sees support at 4006 whilst Silver appears more contained for the moment between 48.40 on the upside and 47.25 on the downside. Indeed as Silver didn’t fully keep pace with Gold into week’s end, the Gold/Silver ratio rose from the prior Friday’s 81.6x level to now 84.9x:
Toward closing, we’ve not stacked it up since mid-August. So let’s have a look; note therein for the Stack’s first time that “Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement” is not at present on top, the yellow metal having achieved (as you know if you are regular reader) such Fair Value a week earlier:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 4081 (08 October 2025)
2025’s High: 4081 (08 October 2025)
10-Session directional range: up to 4081 (from 3793) = +288 points or +7.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 4061 (08 October 2025)
Trading Resistance: 4059
Gold Currently: 4036, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 69 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 3952
Trading Support: notable Profile nodes: 3892 / 3854 / 3844
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3870
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 3548
The 300-Day Moving Average: 3036 and rising
2025’s Low: 2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
To wrap, does another “Black Monday” await the S&P? Instead, shall the FinMedia (which typically suffers ratings declines in bear markets) come to the rescue emphasizing “all that money piling up on the sidelines will come back into the market”? Or in reality: is it the painful withdrawal of margin? “Uh-oh…”
Just don’t you get caught with with a hole in your bankroll! Rather, (hat-tip CDS), ride Gold’s rise above its blow hole! “WHOA!”
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
10 October 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Presently we’ve Copper below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Spot Silver has briefly traded above 50, however by CME GLOBEX, yesterday’s December cac high was 49.97 — regardless, an all-time high — and the high thus far today lower however at 47.915. Gold high-to-low yesterday dropped -120 points (-2.9%) its eight-worst intra-day loss by points century-to-date: we’ve of late regularly been citing Gold’s excessively high price vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value, so ’tis no surprise (indeed expected) seeing price retreat; even at that, Gold in real-time is still +299 points above its smooth valuation line; more on it all in tomorrow’s 830th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The P/E of the S&P 500 may exceed 50x as the day unfolds; (marked by fair value to the futs, ’tis 49.9x at the moment). For the Econ Baro we’ve the UofM Sentiment Survey for October, and purportedly late in the session September’s Treasury Budget, (the Treasury Department does operate under “shutdown” conditions).
09 October 2025 – 08:18 Central Euro Time
Copper is presently the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again moderate. Silver yesterday traded above 49 for the first time in better than 14 years; currently ’tis 48.63; Gold traded yesterday to an All-Time High at 4081. Too, the S&P 500 reached a record high 6756, the Spoo itself attaining the 6808 level. By Market Trends: Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all in 21-day linreg uptrends; the balance of the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil are in like downtrends. Gold is now +382 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and the Spoo is +141 points above same, both markets severely stretched to the upside. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from November into that for December. And the two unlikely-to-be-reported metrics due for the Econ Baro are the prior week’s Jobless Claims and August’s Wholesale Inventories as the StateSide gov’t shutdown continues.
08 October 2025 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
Gold, having yesterday achieved 4000, has since risen today to as high as 4059; Silver however has not kept pace, “stuck” to a degree in the 47s and 48s, the Gold/Silver ratio in turn having risen from the 81s to nearly the 84s (its current real-time reading 83.7x). All three elements of the Metal Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones (even as the Dollar strengthens, reminding us that “Gold plays no currency favourites”), and the two EuroCurrencies are below their Neutral Zones; BEGOS Market’s volatility is moderate. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have marginally been slipping below their key +80% axis since Friday, and price seemingly is losing its rampant upward push: the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 49.1x, and the Index is now 21 trading days (one full month) “textbook overbought”. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; late in the session come the Minutes from the FOMC’s 16/17 meeting.
07 October 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Gold (by its December “front month” contract) at 00:28 this morning touched 4000 for the first time. Price has since come off and is now inside of today’s Neutral Zone (3999-3970), as too are the Bond, Silver Oil and the Spoo; Copper is above its Neutral Zone, and below same are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is its 2hr Moneyflow, whilst for a profit-target basis/swing (per the Market Rhythms page) is its 12hr Moneyflow, (wherein a minimum of 29 points have been gained through the last 10 swings inclusive). Cautionarily, the yellow metal settled last evening +131 points above its Market Magnet, and is (in real-time) +337 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Due today for the Econ Baro — but unlikely to be reported given the ongoing StateSide gov’t closure — is August’s Trade Deficit; then late in the session we’ve August’s Consumer Credit. Q3 Earnings Season has commenced with just one report (STZ) … which beat estimates … but its earnings were less than a year ago, (same old Wall Street game). Mind our Earnings Season page throughout the ensuing days and weeks.
06 October 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
The Gold Update officially recognizes the yellow metal as having achieved, indeed surpassed, our measure of its Fair Value: congrats to Gold! Presently, both Gold and Silver are higher today, above their Neutral Zones as are Oil and the Spoo; below same are the Bond and EuroCurrencies, and BEGOS Markets volatility is session moderate-to-robust. By Market Values in real-time, Gold shows as +315 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo too is +140 points above same, both markets currently in extreme, technically overbought states. ‘Tis a very light data week for the Econ Baro given just six metrics being due: with the ongoing StateSide government shutdown, actual reports may be less, (none are scheduled for today). And Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
The Gold Update: No. 829 – (04 October 2025) – “Gold Achieves Fair Value”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 829th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Achieves Fair Value“
If for some inexcusably unconscionable reason you missed Tuesday’s Prescient Commentary and/or our entry on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), we herein repeat same for you stragglers: “Gold at 00:05 GMT this morning reached its Dollar debasement value of 3865”.
Indeed en route to settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 3912, Gold traded to yet another All-Time High at 3923 on Thursday. As for Sweet Sister Silver, she traded up to her own 14-year high at 48.33 toward closing the week at 47.97, +63.8% net year-to-date and well-outpacing Gold’s nonetheless splendid net gain of +48.2% thus far in 2025.
But the Big Gold Story is — for the first time arithmetically since the week ending on Halloween, 31 October 1980 (price then 642) — Gold has now eclipsed our quintessential valuation of 3867. ‘Tis thus “fair” to say Gold has finally achieved its Fair Value.
“Which is slightly different than the above Scoreboard’s right-hand graphic, correct mmb?”
Spot-on as ever you are, dear Squire. The Gold Scoreboard — the long-standing opening hallmark of The Gold Update — depicts that graphic on a dual scale: one for the StateSide Money Supply (“M2” basis) and one for the price of Gold. The key point therein is to directionally correlate Gold in concert with M2. However, let’s now look at Gold relative to its actual Fair Value.
“The difference being, mmb?”
Squire already well knows the difference, but he loves to infuse the occasional dramatic pause. Price itself (which we measure vis-à-vis its “continuous futures contract” as ’tis far and away the most liquid medium for trading Gold) is simply that: the price of Gold (plus an essentially immaterial amount of eroding premium, currently +0.7% basis December’s expiry).
The Fair Value of Gold however, is a different, more salient and leading measure as to where price “ought be”. The calculation from the M2 starting point as just noted (31 October ’80, thank you Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), is then routinely revised to account for the increase in M2 (basically the de facto liquid measure of the world’s reserve currency) as further adjusted for the increase in the supply of Gold itself. For the more there is of something, the less ’tis worth. And Gold tonnage since back in 1980 has increased by some 2.3x effectively detracting from value.
Regardless of the increasing supply of the yellow metal, M2 today is +1,293% of what ’twas back in 1980 and thus is the primary debasing driver of Gold. So putting it all together, we same-scale chart both Gold and its Fair Value — et voilà — we’re finally there! ‘Tis a crossing sight to behold:
‘Course as shown in the graphic, the last time Gold nearly achieved Fair Value was back in September of 2011, price then embarking on a worse than -47% slide into December 2015. (You long-time readers may recall our writing of Gold as having “gotten ahead of itself”). And no, this time ’round we don’t perceive a repeat of such decline.
In fact, present Gold hype abounds! (One wonders where “they” have been for so many of these past years). Moreover, it suddenly seems that everyone’s become a Gold expert. “Oh, it’s the debt!” they say. “Oh, it’s Trump!” they say. “Oh, it’s global conflict!” they say. Far be it from us to stand in the way of what “they” say. But at the end of the day, ’tis currency erosion by which Gold makes hay.
Further, Gold being a very liquid market — which as do all liquid markets — trends upward, downward and sideways. Too, from the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.”, every form of Gold bought is sold to that buyer by the seller at the agreed-upon price. And price can become quite excessively extended to the upside as is Gold’s current case, irrespective of what “they” say. For example, by deMeadville’s “textbook technicals” (a cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics), Gold is now 25 consecutive trading days “overbought.”
“Well, mmb, that probably won’t be on CNBS…”
Squire, likely neither on Bloomy nor FoxyB. Certainly our next proprietary graphic is not FinMedia made for all to see:
From the website, the smooth line in the above upper panel is our near-term valuation for Gold (3621) based on price’s movement relative to those that comprise the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500). And as we always remind, price inevitably reverts to its smooth valuation line, even as it too rises and falls. The present difference per the lower panel oscillator shows price as +291 points “high” above valuation.
As well, you may have sensed the edginess on Gold’s sellside. This past Tuesday within a four-hour period, Gold fell -79 points, only to regain it all and then some; but again on Thursday within three hours came a drop of -81 points. The hysteria may be (as it continues to be for the S&P) that Gold is poised to go (using technical terminology) “rip-snort, el gonzo, upside nutz”. Not that it shan’t, but there’s a lot of attractive Gold trading profit for the taking these days. As certainly so there is for the S&P 500 as we go to the Economic Barometer:
The Baro was due to take in 13 metrics this past week … but just six (privately-generated) made the trip whilst the publicly-generated balance of seven offered zip. Of those six reports, August’s Pending Home Sales and September’s Institute for Supply Management Index improved period-over-period; but worse were ADP’s negative Employment data, the ISM Services Index, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, all for September.
So: are you confident? As has been bandied about Wall Street over the years, when the government is out of the way, the markets positively play. Thus far for the three trading days of “no-budget” October, the S&P has risen by as much as +0.9%, indeed closing for the first time above 6700 on Wednesday, and again so on both Thursday and Friday. Cue “Do the Wall Street shuffle…” –[10cc, ’74].
‘Course, not so much shuffling upward as streaking higher has been Gold. Here next we’ve the yellow metal’s two-panel graphic of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. Achieving Fair Value is a beautiful thAng:
The white metal’s like graphic says it all: Silver these past three months (below left) has been comprehensively adorned in her precious metal pinstripes (as opposed to her industrial metal jacket). But by her Profile (below right), the 46.40-45.15 swath is quite light on volume, such that should Gold begin to correct as we expect, Silver swiftly would fall back through that zone with an eye to then trying to hold 44.15 as labeled:
To close, we were reminded this past week of a conservation away back in the days of AvidTrader, wherein by completely mindless (let alone official) observations, ’twas determined that the mighty Goldman Sachs was correct on its various outlooks a double-digit percentage of the time … that being 50%.
Now more than two decades later, we similarly query: “Is Goldman Sachs capable of making up its mind?” To wit, this courtesy of “The Right Hand Doesn’t Know What the Left Hand Is Doing Dept.”
- Hat-tip Bloomy from this past Monday: “Goldman Strategists Turn Bullish on Stocks as Recession Risk Low”
- Hat-tip CNBC(S) from Friday: “Goldman Boss David Solomon warns investors of a stock market drawdown”
Some things never change. Yet we think ’tis The Boss who’s wiser. Especially given the S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio having just settled the week at an inane 48.6x. “Have we crashed yet?”
Either way, don’t forget who truly is the boss: Gold!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
03 October 2025 – 08:36 Central Euro Time
Both Silver and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Amongst the correlations of our five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between Oil and the Spoo. The S&P 500 continues its streak of being “textbook overbought” now through the past 18 trading sessions; (‘twould be of note to see the “live” P/E surpass the 50x level: futs-adj’d, ’tis 49.5x at the moment). The Spoo (currently 6784) shows Market Profile support at the volume-dominant levels of 6765, 6752, 6737, 6722, and most notably across the past fortnight at 6710. As the StateSide government remains shutdown, we don’t expect September’s Payrolls to arrive today for the Econ Baro; however due, too, is the ISM(Svc) Index.
02 October 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
Copper is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is not quite yet moderate. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 49.8x, the Index recording yet another record high. Gold yesterday found its way also to another All-Time High at 3923. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our current Top Three on a 10-test basis are the Swiss Franc’s 2hr MACD, the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics, and Copper’s 2hr Moneyflow; on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 4hr MACD, Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 14mn Price Oscillator. Metrics due today for the Econ Baro include August’s Factory Orders, however given the StateSide gov’t shutdown, such report likely shan’t be released.
01 October 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Copper and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro and Swiss Franc, and BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. Gold has again set an All-Time High at 3904, and Silver has reached up to 47.83 so far this session. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have dropped (in real-time) to their key +80% axis: a settle below that border regularly dictates lower prices near-term; the S&P 500 itself saw its P/E settle yesterday at 49.0x, albeit with the Spoo trading lower this morning, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at the moment is 48.7x; the S&P is now 16 consecutive sessions “textbook overbought” and the yield a wee 1.164%, (that for “risk-free” three-month annualized T-Bill yield is 3.845%). The Econ Baro looks to September’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus August’s Construction Spending (not reported due to U.S. government shutdown).