The Gold Update

The Gold Update: No. 846 – (31 January 2026) – “Metals’ Mania Maxed!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 846th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 31 January 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Metals’ Mania Maxed!“

But is the mayhem yet done?  Now obviously no one knows for sure if this recent metals’ mania just hit its maximum price point.  So ’tis prudent to understand that superlatives such as “Maxed!” can further be “Maxed!”

“Yeah mmb, but for gold you totally nailed it!”

Most kind, Sir Squire, albeit again let’s temper this as possibly premature.  Yes, 28 minutes into last Thursday’s session, Gold achieved our year’s forecast high of 5546, further following-through to 5586 (5627 basis April).  And that was it.

Through the balance of the week’s past two trading days, Gold went on to decline by as much -15.9% to Friday’s low of 4700, toward settling the week yesterday at 4908.  And “premature” to be sure is acknowledging the year’s high so far of 5586 as being “it” with 11 months still in 2026’s balance.  But Gold — at least for the present — is unwinding back to reality, even as it remains fundamentally overvalued.  For per the above opening Gold Scoreboard, price today at 4908 is +8.7% above its BEGOS Market Value (4515 via the intra-relative movements of the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500), let alone +24.6% above its Fair Value (3938 via Dollar debasement as countered by Gold’s own supply increase).

“And silver got creamed, mmb!”

Squire, our dear Sister Silver, bless her, is in the I.C.U.

From her record high on Thursday at 121.79, she comprehensively plunged into week’s-end by as much as -39.2% (to 74.00) in settling yesterday at 85.25, an all-in net loss for the week of -17.4% versus that for Gold of just -1.5%; (too, Gold intra-week gained +39 points of premium in rolling from the February contract into that for April).

But specific to poor ol’ Sister Silver:  you very long-time readers of The Gold Update going back well over a decade may recall the noted analyst in the psychosis of precious metals, Dr. Youara Nichtsogut of Salzburg, who earlier this morning visited Silver in the I.C.U.  The good doctor says the trauma through which Silver suffered yesterday — her intra-day high-to-low drop being a single-session record of -37.5% — shan’t have permanent damage; but her recovery is likely to be very lengthy.

Indeed in again referencing the above Scoreboard, Silver today at 85.25 remains considerably overvalued at +50.1% above her Fair Value (56.79).  We asked Dr. Nichtsogut if any accelerative medicinal measure might be taken, to which she replied:  “Vell, liebling, zee inevitable double of zee money supply, zat vill do it, ya”.  (She’s a winner).

Regardless, through many a recent missive — as pro-Gold as we are — ’tis been pointed out time-and-time again that the precious metals were becoming significantly strained to the upside.  Have a glance at this next four-panel graphic featuring Gold and Silver — both linearly and logarithmically — vis-à-vis their respective 50-year regression channels.  How’s that for a “Whoopsie!”

‘Course, the “sad” part (if you will) lies with all the newly-minted Gold experts having recently sprung up like “jack-in-the-boxes”.  Now given their sudden wound-licking, ‘twouldn’t surprise us a wit for Sister Silver whilst in hospital to get some company.

All that said, despite Gold on Friday giving up seven days of gains — and Silver 23 days — it being month-end ’tis time to present the early year-to-date BEGOS Markets’ standings, with our dear “patient” actually atop the table, (if not that for surgery):

Next to Gold’s weekly bars we go, from one year ago-to-date.  And notwithstanding yesterday’s record intra-day plunge (-14.2%), Gold now at 4908 still is +509 points above the parabolic “flip-to-Short” level of 4399.  ‘Course, range has rapidly expanded:  by the website, Gold’s EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) is now 218 points, although given Friday’s vast selling, we may see such range begin to narrow as folks (at least those who are still around), pull back a bit from the trading activity:

Remaining in the year-over-year mode, here we’ve this chart from our infamous “Live by the Leverage, Die by the Leverage Dept.” featuring the percentage tracks of Gold itself +77%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +79%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +111%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +142%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +149%, Newmont (NEM) +170%, and the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +180%.  Yesterday’s falls make Niagara Falls appear but a trickle: 

Even more broadly as again ’tis month-end, we’ve our recently revised Gold Structure graphic featuring the Peggy Lee tune crooned back in ’69.  Some might consider that tall “wick” on the rightmost January candle as “technical damage” given there is arguably a dearth of monthly structural support until the 3500 area; (but’s let’s not go there, please):

From the broad-term past to the near-term now we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  And the pre-fallout low-to-high tracings are remarkable, respectively at +23% for Gold and for Silver a stunning +62% just in ten trading days!  In both panels we’ve selectively labeled prominent volume-dominant price levels.  And the barely visible wee white line for each market is Friday’s settle:

For the BEGOS Markets as a whole across the past 21 trading days (one month), here we go ’round the horn for all eight components with their diagonal grey regression trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend.  And not to be left out of the tumbling Metals Triumvirate, along with the yellow and white metals, so did the red see its price shred, Copper therein high-to-low losing -13.7% of its value.  Metals’ mania mayhem, indeed!

Meanwhile through the midst of it all, the S&P 500 — despite marginally flirting above a record 7000 for 26 minutes on Wednesday — hasn’t really moved about to any material extent.  Again by the deMeadville Market Ranges page, of the eight BEGOS markets, the S&P and the Bond are the most subdued of the bunch.  As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee voted (albeit not unanimously) to maintain the interest rate on FedFunds in the 3.50%-3.75% target range.  Too, Q4 Earnings Season (with about one-third of S&P constituents having reported) is running at an above average year-over-year improvement pace.  And the Economic Barometer is continuing to climb upward.  Thus, geo-politics and a FedChair pick aside, there’s not really that much goin’ on out there.  And specific to the Econ Baro, of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics, just two were worse period-over-period.  Here’s the one-year view:

Note in the Baro the reference to inflation.  Friday {finally} brought wholesale inflation data for December via the Producer Price Index.  Both the “headline” and “core” readings came in at five-month highs, respectively annualized at +6.0% and +7.2%, (the 12-month summations being a less daunting +2.6% in each instance).  And directly from the first paragraph of the FOMC’s Policy Statement:  “Inflation remains somewhat elevated”, that release being two days prior to the PPI report.  Fundamentally, that can be construed as a Gold-negative, should the Fed have to reverse rate gears and raise ’em.  Either way, in muted response to the FOMC, the net change in the S&P from Wednesday through Friday was just a wee -0.6%.  But by our indicatively leading MoneyFlow page, the change “ought have been” -3.1%.  As folks later figure that out, a lower S&P near-term is likely.  Too, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P remains a “lofty” (kind understatement) 47.7x.

To close, we go to the “Now What? Dept.”  Per our title, has the metals’ mania maxed?  As stated, the selling into week’s-end was record-setting. Yet certainly so across the past five months had been the buying.  And ’tis said that “What goes up must come down” … or at least not ridiculously stray from valuation.  So as to near-term direction, mind near-term trends for protection.  For the moment (as these always are evolving), our best pure swing Market Rhythm for Gold is its 30-minute MoneyFlow, and for Silver her four-hour Price Oscillator.  (Do try not to get carried away).

And specific to geo-politically influenced metals’ mania, not only have we in other missives proven (in nauseatingly numerical detail) that such rallies are relatively short-lived with price returning down from whence it came (and then some), but also that regressing a Gold price to geo-politics is absurdly abstract.  For at the end of the day, it simply comes down to how much dough (or lack thereof) is there to go ’round, and thus, how much need be printed to make everyone sound.  Per the opening Scoreboard, that S&P 500 market capitalization-to-liquid money supply ratio of 2.7x is worrisome.  Is your broker liquid?

Now as we prepare to publish, we are learning of disturbing geo-political events this weekend from Gaza to Iran.  So should the metals be maxed or otherwise:  aren’t you glad you hold Gold?

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 845 – (24 January 2026) – “Silver Taps 100 Whilst Gold Scrabbles for 5000”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 845th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 24 January 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Silver Taps 100 Whilst Gold Scrabbles for 5000“

Silver yesterday (Friday) at 15:10 GMT saw the current front month contract (March) achieve 100.00 for the very first time, en route to trading as high as 103.53 before settling the week at 103.26.  Hearty congratulations to Sweet Sister Silver!

Gold however was unable to keep pace in the day’s milestone race, reaching “only” up to another All-Time High at 4991, rather than (as yet) eclipsing 5000 in closing at 4983.

Thus, on marches the metals’ mania mayhem with Gold year-to-date up now a net +15% and Silver +46%.  (For you stock jocks, the S&P 500 thus far is +1%; have a great day).

Wonderful as ’tis in maintaining our 5546 forecast Gold high for 2026, we’ve this prudent cash management reminder from the “Metals Meltdown Dept.” … just in case you’re scoring at home:

  • Back at Gold’s 06 September 2011 record high of 1923, price by December four years hence had “corrected” -46%;

     

  • Back at Silver’s 25 April 2011 record high of 49.80, price by December four years hence had “corrected” -73%.

 “But mmb, you’ve already said that’s not gonna happen again, right?”

No one “knows” with certainty Squire, however we very much doubt it.  To be sure, we’re in the third massive metals “spike” since 1980, (recall then by 1982 Gold having succumbed -66% and Silver -88%).  Means reversion does happen.

The big difference between (yes we have to reprise it) “Now and Then” –[BeaTles, ’23] is back then the precious metals couldn’t get a seat in the theatre, let alone a back stage pass; now Gold and Silver are on centerstage aglow in all the lights.  Too, as we described in last year’s final missive:  the perception of Gold has morphed from a yield-less, irrelevant relic to meme-like stock proportions, and seriously is becoming more widely recognized as a foundational mitigant to debt-driven Dollar debasement and geopolitical jitters, overvaluation be damned.  To wit per the above opening Gold Scoreboard:

Gold at present is +12.7% above its BEGOS Market Value (4421 by price’s movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets being the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500) and further ’tis +27.6% above Fair Value (3905 by price’s 45-year regression to the debasing Dollar via “M2”, countered by the increase in the supply of Gold).

As for Silver, she is +83.4% above her Fair Value (56.30 given that for Gold divided by the evolving mean of the Gold/Silver ratio).  And such ratio now at 48.3x is a 14-year low as shown below by the day across the past 25 years:

Still, maybe this is the great revaluing of the metals, mmb…”

Squire, as we’ve repeated ad nauseam through so many years, “the market is never wrong” … but it can be vastly misvalued as — again — good old means reversion shall ultimately will out.  Moreover, having calculated a proper Fair Value for Gold since 1980 — indeed by which Gold until very recently has been undervalued through four decades — ’tis a valuation foundation we shan’t abandon.

“But oh, there’s too much debt”, they say.  “But oh, geo-political tensions are running astray”, they say.  ‘Course, they‘ve been saying all this for years.  And hardly are we going to begin regressing the price of Gold to global debt levels and geo-political devils.  For at the end of the day, such harrowing macro issues lead to more currency debasement, which in turn shall redound back to increasing the Fair Value of Gold, and Silver too by her relationship thereto.

‘Course today, we’ve all the newly-minted Gold experts out there who also are extoling the industrial benefits of Silver, rightly pointing out that there’s not anywhere near enough physical supply of either precious metal to satisfy the paper/derivative claims on it all.

So, they’re just figuring that out now?  Have they looked as well at the S&P 500’s market capitalization of $61.4T supported by a liquid money supply of “just” $22.6T?  Talk about an inevitable monetary printing event!  Still, for Silver to truly be justified as this high, her industrial demand must vastly accelerate.  Not that it shan’t, but ’tis something of which to be aware.

All that said, as we wave the Gold flag for 5546 in 2026, we love having Sister Silver participate.  But should the precious metals en route take a bit of a bath — let alone a beating — bear in mind their respective Fair Value levels per each weekly missive’s opening Gold Scoreboard.

And speaking of scoring, let’s next pull up Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date.  Last week’s gain of +8.3% ranks fourth best century-to-date, (the best weekly gain being +13.1% for that ending 19 September 2008 when the Black Swan’s wings fanned the flames of the FinCrisis).

Today at 4983, Gold is +746 points above the chart’s rightmost blue parabolic Long dot at 4237, the hoovering of which in the ensuing week would flip the trend from Long to Short.  Given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 206 points, such flip is well out of range.  And toward reaching the 5000 milestone as early as Monday, (barring a severe gap down at the open), a mere +17 points from here is no more than trading noise, (Gold’s expected daily trading range per the website now being 101 points):

Looking StateSide, the Economic Barometer continues to gain traction.  ‘Course, last week’s World Economic Forum featured President Trump, of whom we apolitically say, seemed to oversell the USA.  A point thereto is in regard to (paraphrased) “inflation has come way down”.  We’re not convinced.  Remember as a consequence of the government “shutdown” there were at one point nearly 50 metrics missing from the Econ Baro; and whilst not all shall ever be known, the inclusive missing count has since been reduced to just 15.

And specific to the month of December, we’ve now a full 12 months of inflation data via the Consumer Price Index; (the month’s PPI shan’t be released until next Friday).  But the CPI’s summation for the year is +2.9%, with December’s annualized pace alone at +3.6%.  The last monthly data available for the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures reading was November’s annualized pace of +2.4% (both “headline” and “core”).  We’d thus opine that although inflation hasn’t really picked up, hardly has it come “way down”.

In turn, “down” shan’t be the direction of the FedFunds rate per next Wednesday’s Policy Statement from the Federal Open Market Committee.  And as for the 14 metrics that did arrive for the Baro this past week, just four were worse period-over-period, albeit the majority of the reports were well in “shutdown” arrears.  Here it all is from a year ago-to-date:

Note therein the reference to the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 now at 59.1x.  If you’ve forgotten the math, we’ve not forgotten it for you:

And yes, that p/e of 59.1x remains stratospherically excessive even as Q4 Earnings Season thus far has been very positive for the S&P:  of the 46 constituents having reported, 74% have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago.  But the overall high level of price — and thus practically no yield — inevitably is problematic given the yield in Treasuries remains more than triple that of S&P, and without risk of capital loss, (’tis assumed anyway…gulp…)  But we get it:  “Debt ain’t sexy.”  So, cue Fleetwood Mac from ’76:   “You can go your own way…” 

Looking at Gold’s way, ’tis obviously been “up, up and away!”  Below on the left we’ve price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date along with the baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of the regression trend:  “Follow the Blues” indeed.  And below on the right is the yellow metal’s 10-day Market Profile with selected price labels for volume-dominance.  As for Gold’s “textbook technicals” (our cocktail of Relative Strength, Stochastics and John Bollinger’s Bands), price is nine consecutive trading days “overbought” irrespective of the separately-calculated overvaluations depicted in the opening Gold Scoreboard:

 

Sister Silver meanwhile owns the title of “Overbought” given her “textbook technicals” are now 49 consecutive trading days as such.  And below (at left), her daily bars and “Baby Blues” are practically upside perfection, as in her Market Profile (at right) she’s lookin’ great at 100!  “Brava Brava Sista Silva!”

Into the new week, ’tis time for Gold 5000, (again barring “The Sell”).  Gold has begun 2026 with a bang, indeed its best opening 15 trading days by percentage gain of any year so far this century, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is since 01 January 2001).  And certainly the same (understatement) can be said for Silver, her having thus far gone nuclear!  Regardless of what can be deemed as too far too quickly — especially with respect to overvaluation — we close with this graphic of the early year-to-date percentage tracks for each of Silver (+46%), Gold (+15%), Bitcoin (+1%), S&P 500 (+1%) and the Dollar Index (-1%):

‘Course with “only” 236 trading days remaining in 2026, what possibly could go wrong?  For Gold and Silver the trend is Long!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 844 – (17 January 2026) – “Metals’ Mania Mayhem!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 844th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 17 January 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Metals’ Mania Mayhem!“

“Got volatility??”  Oh baby.  “Maxed-out metals??”  Oh maybe.  “5546 still forecast??”  Ah oui-oui, (a little local lingo there).

But hardly shall Gold get to 5546 in a straight line.  For given today’s milieu of this metals’ mania mayhem, prices — both by valuation and technicals — look as having achieved a max … ’til ’tis onward to the next higher climax.

“So you’re saying now down, but then later back up to more highs, right mmb?”

Squire, ‘twould appear to be the case.  In any market mania, be it over those silly “meme” stocks (or even over Gold and Silver as you’ll recall from “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock” when penned away back on 26 April of last year), mayhem axiomatically reverts to valuation, in turn toward unwinding the excess of technicals.

First let’s look at valuation.  In drawing from the above Scoreboard, Gold’s settling yesterday (Friday) at 4601 is an All-Time Weekly Closing High; (the record intraday high came this past Wednesday at 4651). And as shown, 4601 is +5.4% above our BEGOS Market Value for Gold (4366 per price’s movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS components Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  Further, ’tis +17.9% above Fair Value (price regressed to the U.S. Dollar across the past 46 years, throughout adjusted for the increase in Gold tonnage).  And how about Sister Silver:  now 89.95, she is a full +60.0% above her Fair Value (56.23).  So yes, Virginia, as magnificent and enjoyable as has been the metals’ moves, priced to the present, they are ahead of themselves, (again, in no way precluding higher levels still, as the year and our 5546 forecast for Gold unfold).

Second let’s look at technicals.  Those of you focused on this latest metals’ mania have now likely also sensed the escalating mayhem therein.  The selling is becoming more frequent.  The standard trading week for the metals’ futures contains 20 six-hour periods.  For the week prior (ending 09 January), 13 six-hour periods were up and thus 7 were down.  But for this past week — even as Gold recorded a net +1.8% gain — 10 six-hour periods were up and 10 were down.  And intraday Friday, the price of Gold capitulated -75 points from 4622 to 4547 in a mere 17-minutes (15:18 GMT through 15:34 GMT).  Blame it on the geo-polly follies?  “Iran is ON! … no wait … Iran is OFF! … but hang on … yes, it’s Greenland!”  Or to quote the late-beloved actor Jean-Paul Belmondo from Casino Royale –[Columbia, ’67]:  “Zee French have arrived!”

Arriving next we’ve this three-panel chart of such six-hour technicals for each of Gold, Silver and Copper.  The time frame is from the start of December-to-date.  This most recent week is from the x-axis label “01/12” (January 12th).  In all three cases:

  • Price peaked and has since weakened;
  • The blue parabolic dots have moved from below price to above it (a sell signal);
  • And the MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) has negatively crossed:

‘Course, technical analysis can struggle to pan out in the midst of mania.  But hardly for all three metals would some further price pullbacks be untoward  Either way, you regular readers well-know a pet caveat of ours that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  To be sure, the media are running rife with geo-political strife.  But at the end of the day, as we’ve herein documented in recent years, geo-political price spikes in Gold are generally short-(no pun intended)-lived.  For as ever, the broad valuation of Gold is by Dollar debasement, mitigated to an extent by an ever-increasing supply of the yellow metal.  Gold’s otherwise wild price gesticulations eventually return from whence they came.  (Or for you WestPalmBeachers down there, a word to the wise is sufficient).

“That’s an oxymoron for that bunch, mmb…”

Now let’s be nice, dear Squire.  ‘Tis critical that we respect those who “take the other side of the trade”.

And as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the trend of the trade has basically been “Nuthin’ but UP!”  But should the tide now ebb for a bit, ’tis good to know where the current blue-dotted parabolic trend would flip, which as noted for the ensuing week is 4154:  ’tis -447 points below the present 4601 level.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  189 points.  Therefore in that vacuum, one can speculate a down week for Gold shan’t flip said trend.  Or perhaps we’re higher still by next week’s end:

 

Nevertheless, we’ve mentioned “negativity” … near-term anyway … for the metals both by valuation and technicals.  Now let’s turn to a possibly negative fundamental notion for Gold.  We’re but a week-and-a-half away from the first Policy Statement of the year from the Federal Open Market Committee.  And despite an apparent slowing in inflation — “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures data due next week — and still tepid job creation, venerable Reuters nonetheless reports via the CME FedWatch tool that “Traders are betting on a 97.2 per cent chance for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its Jan. 27 to 28 meeting”.  And given the recent strength that’s been pouring into our Economic Barometer, we concur.  Have a look, (even as 27 StateSide government “shutdown” metrics remain missing):

Year-to-date, 37 data items (including some in “shutdown” arrears) have come into the Baro, of which only 12 were worse period-over-period.  Hence the rise by this economic guise.  Recall the ’90s gridlock-is-good “Goldilocks Economy” of President Clinton(D) astride that Congress(R)?  Today’s politics aside, are we witnessing the return of Ms. Locks?  Again, inflation has been reported as slowing, but jobs numbers need to come up a bit.  Still, so far in 2026, the Econ Baro’s standout improved reports (much from Q4 2025 data) chronologically include Productivity, the Trade Deficit, the Unemployment Rate, Building Permits, the Current Account, Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, both the Philly Fed and N.Y. Empire State Indices, and Capacity Utilization.  Too, from the “Whew! Dept.”, the potential end-of-January “shutdown” shan’t come to pass … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Regardless, a less-benevolent Fed can retard Gold from getting further ahead.

However, herein we move instead to our two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  As noted in our prior two missives, the yellow metal’s baby blue dots of regression trend consistency already had been breaking down, even as price duly recovered to the latest 4651 record high.  But the “Baby Blues” for the white metal have been holding firm.  Still, should price decays further ensue, ’twill hit both sets of Blues, too:

As well in a two-panel shell are the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (at left) and for Silver (at right).  Because for both metals the respective trading ranges have been so vast these past two weeks, we’ve limited the number of labeled volume-dominant prices.  And for the present, Gold and Silver are deeply mired in high-volume zones:

With all that in your metals’ pack, here’s the stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  4651 (14 January 2026)
2026’s High:  4651 (14 January 2026)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4651 (from 4356) = +295 points or +6.8%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  4634 (14 January 2026)
Trading Resistance:  4603 / 4621 / 4643
Gold Currently:  4601, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  86 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4548
Trading Support:  4496 / 4471 / 4459
2026’s Low:  4319 (02 January)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  4154
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3901
The 300-Day Moving Average:  3401 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To wrap, in the midst of this metals’ mania mayhem, we ought not be put off by some degree of price retrenchment, especially with 5546 for our forecast high as the year goes by.

“And here’s a surprise, mmb!  Copper’s sister Coppélia just sent us this!”

Now Squire, do behave out there.  And indeed, folks, stay with your Gold and Silver!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 843 – (10 January 2026) – “Six Days into ’26, Gold and Silver Net Upticks”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 843rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 January 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Six Days into ’26, Gold and Silver Net Upticks“

Six trading days into 2026 find Gold having already netted a year-to-date gain of +4.3% and Silver +12.4%.  Or … just in case you’re scoring at home … to go deeper inside the data for the 138 hours so far traded, 81(59%) have been up for Gold and 75 (54%) have been up for Silver.

Moreover, from the “‘Tis Too Early to Extrapolate Dept.”, Gold at its current year-to-date regressed growth pace would achieve our 5546 forecast high for 2026 come 27 February.  Too early, indeed, perhaps too much detail.  Yet it punctuates just how positive are the precious metals’ internals thus far into the young year.

“And like you say, mmb, markets don’t move in a straight line…”

‘Tis axiomatic, Squire, given markets’ means reversion is natural phenomenon “do-doo-de-do-doo” –[Henson, ’69].  For as we’ve herein quipped over the years:  “The markets are never wrong; but they can be vastly misvalued.”

And thereto, overvaluation is the present state of both the precious metals — and far more so — that of the S&P 500.  As depicted in our above newly-enhanced Gold Scoreboard, whereas Gold settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4518, ’tis +5.5% above its BEGOS Market Value* of 4282, and further, +15.9% above Fair Value of 3898.  Too, Silver’s settle at 79.79 is +42.0% above her Fair Value of 56.17.  So clearly there will be price retrenchment for both the yellow and white metals as the year unfolds, albeit within the broader context of Gold getting to 5546.

(*Valuing Gold by its price movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets:  Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil, S&P 500).

As to the S&P 500, today’s market capitalization of $61.8T is 2.7x the supportive StateSide liquid money supply (“M2”) of $22.6T.  And as we wrote in last Thursday morning’s Prescient Commentary, the S&P:  “…settled [Wednesday] with a “live” P/E of 57.2x, more than double from its inception 13 years ago [meaning] earnings have since grown at less than half the rate of the S&P itself…”  Then yesterday, the S&P recorded yet another record high (6978), boosting such price/earnings ratio to now 58.5x per the Scoreboard .

Again we reprise Jerome B. Cohen:  “…in bull markets the average [P/E] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”  What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is by buying the S&P as a whole unit today, you’d pay $58.50 for something that earns $1.00 (an implied yield of 1.709%, the actual dividend yield by the Scoreboard being 1.134%), all whilst facing a “means reversion” capital risk of worse than -50% upon it all going wrong.

‘Course for Gold, ’tis all going well, (and by present valuation too well, but hardly shall we complain).  For the 52 weekly settles from one year ago-to-date, Gold is trending higher at a rate of +1.1% per week.  At such pace, price a year from now would be dubiously 7843.  Comparably, by century-to-date, there’s been but one other mutually-exclusive similar pace:  from mid-May 2005 to mid-May 2006, (price recording a +69% run from 421 to 712).  History — as is its wont — has thus repeated as we go to Gold’s weekly bars since this a date year ago, the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now five weeks in duration:

To be sure, given our forecast for 5546 this year, we’re anticipating such higher Gold even as the noted “overvalued” speedbumps certainly shall retard present pace.  Of more import, Gold is getting the broad-based bid of which it has been so deserving throughout this century.  But as charter reader JGS of the very first edition of The Gold Update said away back in 2009:  “There’s always the overshoot.”  Yet even as we’re now seeing that, it legitimizes a growing “awareness” (yucky word as ’tis) over ever-potential currency instability — even as the Dollar is getting a notable bid in starting the year — and certainly so, proliferating geo-political instability.  ‘Tis a world on the edge in so many respects, be it asset overvaluations and/or sovereign nation invasions.

Further evidence of the precious metals being in play is measured by their respective “expected daily trading range” (“EDTR”).  From the website, here are the current EDTRs for Gold on the left, Silver at center, and the S&P 500 “Spoo” futures on the right.  The time frame is from one year ago through yesterday.  (For our rookie readers, this is not price direction; rather ’tis how much range by points we expect each market to cover for the following trading day).  And quite obviously, the precious metals are characterized by volatility well-exceeding that for the stock market:  Gold’s current EDTR of 91 points equates to $9,100/contract of range expected (in this case) for Monday; Silver’s EDTR of 5.33 points equates to $26,650/contract of range expected, but the S&P 500 futures EDTR of 56 points equates to “only” $2,800/contract of range expected.  Query:  “What are YOU trading?”

Peeking a bit further into the S&P, despite it having recorded an all-time high yesterday, the mighty Index appears rather lackluster into this new year.  Through the first six trading days for each of the 26 trading years century-to-date, this year’s low-to-high S&P range of 2.3% ranks a wee 20th.  ‘Course, there hasn’t been that much fundamentally upon which to trade (the exception being the recklessly high P/E).  Also, Q4 Earnings Season has only just started, wherein for the 23 companies thus far having reported, 78% beat estimates — but only 43% actually bettered their bottom line of Q4 a year ago; (‘course in this Investing Age of Stoopid, “earnings growth” has no relevance whatsoever).

Too, there’s been little economic data provided thus far in 2026:  just nine metrics have been reported, of which four were in arrears from the StateSide “shutdown”.  The metric getting the most FinMedia notice is December’s Unemployment Rate, having dropped a pip from 4.5% in November to 4.4%, (even as an already anemic Payrolls growth slowed from November, itself revised lower; and the December estimate was missed).  Here’s the Economic Barometer, featuring the record high S&P, and from the website, everybody’s favourite P/Es.  Stoopid indeed:

Returning to the intelligent side of investing, here next we’ve our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date at left and 10-day Market Profile at right.  The yellow metal’s baby blue dots of trend consistency continue to trickle lower; and by the Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant support price shows as 4459:

The like drill for Sister Silver still finds her “Baby Blues” above the key +80% axis, her on-balance December rise having been more uniform than that for Gold.  And by the white metal’s Profile, the 75s appear as the most supportive area at present:

Supportive indeed for the precious metals are the aforementioned concerns over the world becoming a bit more wobbly.  Regardless, anticipated trimming of recently netted gains “ought” not be too much of a concern.  As to technically monitoring it all, we’ve this from our Market Rhythms’ analyses, with the corollary that ’tis — whilst current — measured via hindsight per each study’s last ten swing signals, (even as “shorting Gold is a bad idea”):

  • Gold:  for pure swing consistency, its best study of late has been the Parabolics on the 12hr time frame, else if targeting a profit per swing, the daily MACD;

  • Silver:  for pure swing consistency, her best study of late has been the Parabolics on the 30mn time frame, else if targeting a profit per swing, the 2hr MACD.

And, as always, remember:  just because a technical study has profitably panned-out ten times in-a-row, ever-shifting market dynamics can bring such streak to an abrupt halt time and again.

“Yer sure givin’ it all away today, mmb…” 

Just our way of humbly sharing with our valued readers what we’re seeing, Squire.  Here’s to Gold and Silver!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 842 – (03 January 2026) – “We Forecast Gold’s High for ’26 at 5546”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 842nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 January 2026 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“We Forecast Gold’s High for ’26 at 5546“

5546 is our forecast Gold high for 2026.  When we set upon such annual analysis for this year, we admittedly felt a bit snarky in perhaps selecting the year’s high as “the opening tick”, which yesterday (Friday) was 4340.  After all, Gold is — at present — overvalued.  But it did trade well up early in the session to as high as 4415 before giving back most of that gain in settling the first trading day of 2026 at 4342.

Regardless, per the above newly-enhanced Gold Scoreboard, we peg price as overvalued both by Fair Value (+11.5%) and BEGOS Market Value (+2.9%).  In such respect, the notion of Gold thus opening on what would turn out to be its high for the entire year did have a modicum of plausibility.

However:  plausibility is hardly reality.  Gold is in play … Big Time!  As you regular readers well-know, 2025 was the year of the newly-minted Gold expert.  Much of that upon which we’ve expounded these past 16 years was suddenly discovered by the many perceptive pawns proliferating this ongoing Investing Age of Stoopid.  To wit, Gold’s COMEX contract volume in 2025 exceeded 50 million, the largest since 2020’s onset of COVID that put Gold into panic mode.

Moreover, despite Gold’s overvaluation by both Fair Value and BEGOS, price’s trend has not only been up, but on balance soaring.  In settling 2025 at 4332, Gold’s 2625-4584 low-to-high range for the year was a percentage span of +74.7%, far and away the broadest of the 25 years century-to-date; (second-most was 2009’s +53.2% run from 802-1228).

“So mmb, if it’s overvalued, why is your 5546 forecast so much higher than here?”

Squire, the herd push into Gold — and into Silver as well — is sufficiently substantial that ’tis not going to suddenly stop.  Further, we have to think 2026 shall see significant issues to work in Gold’s favour, albeit as a valued re-publisher of The Gold Update recently wrote to us (hat-tip GoldSeek.com):  “What a year!  If we have another similar year then we have serious problems taking place…”

For example, geo-political issues abound, (consequential Gold price spikes short-lived as they may be).  But hardly seeing resolve are RUS/UKR, ISR/PSE and the portending state of PRC/TWN.

“Also now this morning USA/VEN and there’s also USA/IRN, huh, mmb?”

To coin a radio phrase, Squire, “The hits just keep on comin’!” and these all are sensitive situations which can swiftly induce higher Gold.

Remember, too, the recent StateSide government “shutdown”?  Gold therein did quite well:  having settled at 3888 the day before the “shutdown” commenced on 01 October, price three weeks hence on 20 October had gained +13.1% to a fresh record high at 4398.  And now there’s “talk” of another “shutdown” beginning 31 January.  How many more missing metrics for the Economic Barometer would that elicit?  Such total actually ticked up yesterday from 36 to 37 upon The U.S. Census Bureau’s not issuing Construction Spending for a third consecutive month.  To reprise the late, great football coach Vince Lombardi:  “What da hell’s goin’ on out ‘dere?”

‘Course, a currency debasing event axiomatically would pump Gold higher still as Fair Value would accelerate.  The U.S. estimated federal spend in 2025 was $7.01T on generated income of $5.23T.  Indeed, the federal government’s average two-week spend is essentially the same as a full year’s increase in Gold tonnage, marked-to-market.

As well, our upgraded Scoreboard shows the market capitalization of the S&P 500 as 2.7x greater than the liquid money supply to support it.  That wouldn’t end well:  “Jeepers, Mabel, the broker gave us more IOUs for our stock sales!” … “Just relax, Beano, the Fed said it’ll make us whole.”

As well toward Gold 5546, there’s much ado about making the 5000 milestone.  So as overvalued as the yellow metal presently is, let’s repeat that which we herein wrote a week ago toward still higher Gold:  “…far be it from us to stand in the way of the ‘bigger fish to fry’ global financial stability concerns…”

“And how did you come up with 5546, mmb?”

‘Twas fairly straight-forward, Squire.  We merely calculated Gold’s “expected yearly trading range” (on a percentage basis) and — assuming this year that price trades higher than it falls — out popped 5546.  Relative to last year, (as noted Gold’s low-to-high range having spanned +74.7%), the math actually suggests less than half that range in 2026, the potential low coming in at 4136, (just in case you’re scoring at home), although a return sub-4000 wouldn’t surprise us a wit.

Now as this is effectively our month/quarter/year-end edition of The Gold Update, ’tis time to present the attendant graphics starting with the final BEGOS Markets’ Standings 2025, starring as sterling as ever, Sweet Sister Silver.  Her having reached as high as 82.67 was nearly triple her 2024 settle away back at 29.29, en route to closing 2025 at 70.98:

Next to our two year-over-year views, beginning with Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends.  Obviously we cannot rule out the inevitable flip of the blue-dotted Long trend to Short.  But for the present, the “flip-to-Short” level is 4080, i.e. below the year’s potential low we just mused of 4136.  That noted, barring a swift Gold plunge, we’re about two weeks away from the blue dots accelerating up beyond 4136:

And in the second such view we present the most noble precious metals equities.  The expression “Live by the leverage, die by the leverage” is exemplary in this case.  For even as Gold itself year-over-year is now +65%, we’ve Franco-Nevada (FNV) +78%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +119%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +154%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +156%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +163%, and Newmont (NEM) +174%.  “Wow!” and “Beyond Wow!”

Maintaining end-of-month tradition, next we’ve Gold’s Structure; however, we’ve reduced the overall time scale from starting in 2010 to instead starting from 2020.  All those sedimentary-level names have been removed, although the  horizontal lines are still there for reference.  But barring the yellow metal breaking below “The Infamous Triple Top” in price’s initial attempts to stay above 2000, we don’t anticipate Gold returning so low.  Even last year, the only month in which a candle closed below its open was June.  So ’tis fair to say — despite our forecast 5546 — ‘twould be prudent to anticipate a bit of red en route:

Zooming back in near-term, here are the precious metals’ 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Note that the yellow metal in opening the year has slid below its most volume-dominant support (now resistance) as labeled at 4363.  As for the white metal, she’s begun the year in flirting either side of her dominant 71.95 level:

Now to the last 21 trading days (one month) for all eight BEGOS Markets, featuring the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency.  Save for the Bond and Oil downtrends, the other six components are positively slanted, albeit the “Baby Blues” for the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all dropping from having been above their key +80% levels, suggestive of lower prices (which already we’ve been seeing); those for Silver and Copper, too, may begin to break down as the ensuing week unfolds:

All of which brings us to the Econ Baro.  Just a wee three metrics made it into the Baro this past week … but their respective results were large:  the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index leapt from 36.6 in November to 43.5 for December; November’s Pending Home Sales improved from a +2.4% gain in October to +3.3%; and Initial Jobless Claims (admittedly for Christmas week) dropped from 215k to 199k.  Thus, the Baro remains positively pointed even as rate cuts are expected to be anointed:

However, that raises the question of a barrier to Gold 5546: for if the Fed were not to cut… on verra…

In summary, yes Gold is — for the present– overvalued (and certainly so is Silver … again see the opening Scoreboard).  But hardly would we sell here.  More prudently, should Gold as the months unfold break below Fair Value (currently 3895), ’tis an opportunity to buy “mohrrrr….”

Either way, we’ll wrap it here with this observation:  if Gold is overvalued, then the S&P 500 is massively so.  Per our final 2025 Prescient Commentary from last Wednesday morning, we wrote:  “The S&P 500 — which a year ago closed with its ‘live’ P/E at 46.1x — now finds it at 55.1x.”   As depicted earlier in the BEGOS Markets’ Standings, the S&P sported a +16.4% gain for 2025; in turn, its Price/Earnings ratio increased (finishing the year at 54.6x) by +18.4%.  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means relative to share prices, earnings growth for the Index as a whole wasn’t there!  “Whoopsie…” 

“GOT GOLD???”

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 841 – (27 December 2025) – “Yes, Gold REALLY Is Getting Ahead of Itself”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 841st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 27 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Yes, Gold REALLY Is Getting Ahead of Itself“

Good grief, Squire, how did that WestPalmBeacher get in here?
“He didn’t, mmb, it’s just some kinda AI infiltration…”
Well, we simply must get on to our Amsteg security team. Honestly…

To Gold:  With specific respect to this week’s title, our missive from back on 06 September, (the 14th anniversary of 2011’s All-Time Intraday Gold High at 1923), was queryingly entitled “Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?”  The key word therein is “Again”.  Because prior, we’d originally postulated about Gold having gotten ahead of itself away back on 01 October 2011 (Update No. 98), price having settled that Friday (30 September 2011) at 1627 and thus already -15% from the 1923 record high of just four weeks earlier.

But annoyingly, such postulation was far more prescient than that for which we planned:  come 03 December 2015 — yes four years hence — Gold’s fallout from 1923 to 1045 completed an all-in correction of -45%.

“Oh no, mmb, yer not sayin’ this is gonna happen all over again … are you?”

Calme-toi, Squire.  ‘Tis not gonna happen all over again, for there’s a big difference between “Now and Then” –[BeaTles, ’23]:

  • “Then”, during that massive decline, Gold was discarded as a yield-less, storagely-expensive, debasively-irrelevant relic.  The 1045 bottom was -57% below its Fair Value that day of 2450.

  • “Now”, having settled yesterday (Friday) at a record-high close of 4562, ’tis a +337% increase over the past 10 years, 2025 finding everyone having suddenly become a Gold expert, in turn morphing the precious metals into “meme” stocks as we’ve on occasion quipped since this past spring (seasonally and pricewise).

‘Tis been great for Gold, en route bringing Silver up to far more realistic pricing.  But the recent overshoot of Fair Value is significant.  By such metric, Gold at 4562 is now +17% above its 3891 Fair Value, whilst Silver at 79.68 is +42% above its 56.06 Fair Value.  And you know, and we know, and given everybody from Bangor ME to Honolulu and right ’round the world instantly having become a Gold expert knows:  the yellow metal since Nixon’s nixing of the Gold Standard (15 August 1971) has been priced sub-par relative to its Fair Value.  But today, ’tis priced at that stated +17% premium.  And “reversion to the mean” we ‘spect shall be seen.

Regardless of Gold’s mis-valuation, the market is never wrong:  today’s 4562 level is the truth.  Price’s primary driver these last 54 years is dollar debasement, offset to an extent by the increase in Gold’s supply.

Course, there is additional conventional wisdom to justify still-higher Gold:  “Oh, the world is working toward war!”, they say; “Oh, the banks are going to fail!”, they say; “Oh, the fiats are finished!”, they say.  And duly legitimate notions they all are.  But at the end of the day, when such Gold-gyrating stimuli fall from the FinMedia fray, ’tis inevitably Dollar debasement that leads Gold’s upward way.

Thus — courtesy of the “Reverse Engineering Dept.” — we query:

“What ought be today’s level of the liquid U.S. Money Supply (“M2″) to justify 4562 Gold?”

M2 today is $22.5T and Gold’s Fair Value is 3891.  So with a rough “back of the napkin” pencil scribbling — without regard for the ongoing increase in Gold’s tonnage — simple arithmetic proportion puts M2 up to $26.4T such as to be aligned with 4562 Gold today.  For those of you scoring at home, that implies a +$3.9T M2 increase.

“And how long will that take, mmb?”

Squire, upon it all going wrong in the financial world, it could happen in a heartbeat.  Regular readers of The Gold Update know of the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash wherein liquidation of the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $61.5T would be readily supported by “only” $22.5T of M2.  Your broker then remits to you an “I.O.U.”, stock trading ceases, and everyone “owed dough ” waits for the Federal Reserve to “print” and (in that vacuum) distribute the +$39T difference.  Gold in turn would rapidly race up into the five figures.

That stated, following the Fed’s last series of rate hikes — which rightly rebased the Dollar in reducing M2 from $22.0T in April of 2022 to $20.6T come October 2023 — the money supply since has steadily returned to debasing, indeed at a regressed trending rate of +$15.7B per week.

Thus:  at that pace from today’s M2 level of $22.5T to the $26.4T level supportive of Gold now at 4562 would take 250 weeks, i.e. some five years!   But wait, it gets worse:  account along the way for an increase in the Gold supply (typically some +2,770 tonnes per year) and empirically, it would take even longer for Gold to rightly be at today’s 4562.  Yes, Gold REALLY has gotten ahead of itself; but far be it from us to stand in the way of the “bigger fish to fry” global financial stability concerns.

So relax:  hardly are we bearish on Gold.  We love what’s happening!  But — the current “metals mania” aside — as we oft caution given Gold is a major liquid market, price shan’t ascend in a straight line, let alone move lower as such.  And for the present being priced some +17% above Fair Value, Gold too is +9.4% (+393 points) above its BEGOS Market Value of now 4169:

Nevertheless, the year-over-year weekly bars and parabolic trends picture remains nearly perfect.  Price’s expected weekly trading range is now a whopping 181 points, which is good news:  the ensuing week’s  “flip-to-Short” level (4048) is an “out-of-range” -514 points below here.  So barring a sudden, substantive selling spate of the precious metals, Gold’s current parabolic Long trend likely has a minimum of three more weeks to run.  One indeed wonders:  “5000 for New Year?”  With three trading days remaining in 2025, we don’t think so, albeit manias clearly get moved with madness (such as the S&P 500 since COVID).  Here’s Gold’s marvelous move, our green-line “conservative” forecast 3262 high being left far behind:

Speaking of stocks, let’s next go to the record-high S&P 500 astride (or otherwise) the Economic Barometer.  And this past week’s “blow-out” Baro metric was the (in arrears) initial read of Q3 Gross Domestic Product:  the +4.3% annualized pace was the swiftest since the +4.9% finalized read for Q3 in 2023.  The FinMedia are defining the GDP’s pace as “hot”, yet they’ve a prediction contest as to “how many Fed cuts there’ll be next year”.  Rate “cuts” in a “hot” economy?  On goes this Investing Age of Stoopid, even as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in December for the fifth consecutive month.  Are you confident?  What about the Econ Baro’s 36 missing metrics?  Or the “potential” for the next StateSide “shutdown” in a month’s time?  How’s that “live” S&P 500 price/earnings ratio of 55.7x gonna work out for ya?  And “they” call Gold “yield-less”?  Indeed, “…ignorance is bliss…” –[Tom Gray, 1742]:

Now for our two-panel display of Gold, featuring its daily bars on the left from three months ago-to-date, and on the right the 10-day Market Profile.  Mind the baby blues dots of regression trend consistency, for upon their falling below the +80% axis likely brings still lower prices.  By the Profile, the nearest volume-dominant support level is 4518 as labeled:

And next is the same display for Silver.  ‘Tis marvelous that — by the Gold/Silver ratio — the white metal finally has caught up to a reasonable valuation vis-à-vis Gold.  Such G/S ratio (as earlier depicted in Gold’s weekly bars graphic) is now 57.3x, its lowest reading since 11 April 2013; the century-to-date evolving mean of the ratio is 69.4x.  ‘Course by the noted +42% deviation above Fair Value, ’tis fair to say Sweet Sister Silver has overshot herself.  Yet as we similarly mused for Gold:  “100 for New Year?”  Oh such hype is palpable!  However, from here at 79.68, such “milestone” (understatement) is “only” another +25.5% higher.

“But has that ever happened before in just three days, mmb?”

Very nearly so, Squire!  For the three-day stint within the thrashing of 2008’s “Black Swan” turbulence:  after 16 September, come 19 September, Silver had gained as much as 24.2%.  Either way, here’s Silver’s stance at present, (practically through the top of her two panels):

 

And now into New Year we go, the record-high precious metals miraculously “Going to a Go-Go” –[The Miracles, ’65].  As teased in the opening Gold Scoreboard, we’re revamping its look and expanding its summary of what we deem as critical “need-to-know” info on Gold, Silver, and too, the S&P 500:  thus you’ll have a tidy summary at the top every Saturday.  Indeed next Saturday shall be our month/quarter/year-end edition of The Gold Update (plus one trading day in January), including our Gold forecast high for 2026.  So don’t give it a miss, as miracles do happen!

A Safe and Happy New Year to Everybody!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 840 – (20 December 2025) – “Merry Metals!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 840th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 20 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Merry Metals!“

Merry metals, indeed!  En route to finishing the final full trading week of 2025, both Gold and Silver made fresh All-Time Highs!  “Surprise, surprise, surprise!” –[G. Pyle, ’64-’69].  Toward the week’s respective settles:

  • Gold on Thursday traded to as high as 4410 in closing Friday at 4369, +66% year-to-date;
  • Silver yesterday (Friday) traded to as high as 67.68 in closing at 67.40, +130% year-to-date.

“And how about from 2001, mmb?”

Squire we “ought” save that stat for our year-end edition still two missives hence.  However, as does Hollywood, let’s tease it.  So century-to-date:

  • Gold is presently +1,496%;
  • Silver is +1,352%;
  • and the S&P 500 (ex-dividend) is +418%.

Funny how the FinMedia focuses on the latter (i.e. the least-gainer) of those three; but precious metals investing is too boring for the followers of FinMedia to generate enough lifeblood (advertising revenue).  “Well ya know, uh Bud, these stocks are gonna like, uh, triple between now and the close…”

As to the year’s final two “shortened” weeks, there remain just 7½ trading days within the holiday haze, risking one’s becoming lost in the merry markets’ maze.  Bearing in mind that “trend trumps hype”, our best Market Rhythm on a pure swing basis for Gold is currently the 12-hour Parabolics, whilst for Silver ’tis the six-hour Moneyflow.  Here — with the benefit of hindsight — are the cumulative results of the last 10 pure swings for both metals, (basis one futures contract, for which a one-point move in Gold is +/- $100 and that for Silver is +/- $5,000 … “past performance not guaranteeing ‘futures’ results, right mmb?”  Never, Squire:

Still, from the “Means Reversion Dept.”, Gold (4369) by the opening Scoreboard is +12% above Fair Value (3896), vis-à-vis the regression of Gold’s price to the U.S. “M2” Money Supply, duly incorporating the increase in the yellow metal’s tonnage, (which for those of your scoring at home is today some 218k tonnes, having doubled since April 1986).

Too, by our measure of BEGOS Markets Value, per the pricing of the yellow metal by its movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500), at 4369 ’tis +247 points (+6%) “high” above its smooth valuation line (4122) as below depicted:

As for Sister Silver (herself not a primary BEGOS component for a Market Value calculation), she nonetheless today at 67.40 is +20% above her Fair Value of 56.13.  So as merry as are our metals, corrections will occur; do try not to get carried away.

For as we next turn to the metals’ Market Trends for the last three-months to date featuring Gold on the left and Silver at center, we’ve also included Copper on the right.  As you well know, Cousin Copper does influence Sister Silver such that she’ll on occasion shed her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket.  And by Copper’s baby blue dots of regression trend consistency, note the word “SELL” pointing at the rightmost “Baby Blue” having just slipped below its key +80% axis.  How has such Copper “SELL” previously affected Silver?  From a year ago-to-date there’ve been four like Copper “SELL” signals, then finding Silver within the ensuing 21 trading days (one month) respectively dropping by as much as:  -21.3%, -5.5%, -0.4% (“whew”), and -14.8%.  Just something of which to be aware.  Here’s the graphic, (minding, too, the “Baby Blues” of the precious two):

‘Course, the mainstay graphic of The Gold Update is price’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date.  And as we rhymingly reprise, the picture looks great!  The fresh parabolic Long trend is now two weeks in duration with a net price gain of +3.3%.  As for old lurking Ebenezer, we told him away back in 1843 when priced at $20.67/oz. that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”, (it having since risen 21,037%):

Next to our 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  With such an array of underlying support levels, ’tis truly a Santa Bananarama, which is “Really Saying Something … bop-bop shoobie do-wah” –[’82]:

Toward the week’s wrap we’ve the economy (or lack thereof) on tap.  Per the next graphic, there still in arrears are 40 “shutdown” metrics which haven’t arrived, (of which some shan’t ever do).  And whilst November’s inflation at the retail level (Consumer Price Index) was again recorded at a +0.2% monthly clip, the Philly Fed Index took a hit in recording its fifth negative month in the last seven.  Moreover, the Baro has been beleaguered throughout December per those metrics made available:

Yet despite the Baro’s woes, the S&P 500 still seeks a Santa Claus rally, the Mighty Index now down just -14 points from November’s settle.  We’ve recently pointed out that for the 24 completed Decembers thus far this century, 16 have been up, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means eight have been down).

Regardless, the FinMedia is “freaking out” (technical term).  This past week brought two items of note from the children’s writing pool at the once highly-respected Barron’s.  To wit:

—> (Tuesday) “Stock Markets Are Suffering Amid Bubble Fears” … “Suffering”?  The S&P settled Tuesday a scant -1.5% below its all-time closing high.  Now ’tis but -1.0%.  But wait, it gets funnier:

—> (Friday)  “The Stock Market Has a 10% Chance of a 30% Crash in 2026” … Since when did a 30% correction be deemed a “Crash”?  More accurately, we’d opine — by employing the lost art of proper portfolio theory in concert with the S&P’s “live” price/earnings ratio of now 55.8x — that “The Stock Market Has a 100% Chance of a 50% Crash in 2026” … (write it down).

Rightly or wrongly either way, here’s the Gold Stack for Santa’s sleigh sack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  4410 (18 December 2025)
2025’s High:  4410 (18 December 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4410 (from 4199) = +211 points or +5.0%
Trading Resistance:  Per the Profile 4410
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  4374 (20 October 2025)
Gold Currently:  4369, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  66 points)
Trading Support:  Profile notables  4369 / 4359 / 4336 / 4304 / 4263 / 4236
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4313
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  4014
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3896
The 300-Day Moving Average:  3295 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Et voilà:

A Most Merry Metals’ Christmas to Everyone Everywhere!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 839 – (13 December 2025) – “Gold Beams Back To Long; Silver Screams So Strong!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 839th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Beams Back To Long; Silver Screams So Strong!“

We are “pleased as punch” –[Hubert H. Humphrey, circa ’60s] to proclaim that Gold just completed yet another “failed” weekly parabolic Short trend of but three weeks, settling higher yesterday (Friday) at an All-Time Weekly Closing High of 4330.  We’ll further expound upon that, but first:

Direct from our “‘Don’t Forget the Silver!’ Dept.” — the white metal soaring well-above 60 this past week (as posted Tuesday on “X” via @deMeadvillePro)  — we present the following table, remindful of that herein stated ad nauseam throughout this year, (indeed across recent years prior):

Indeed, Sweet Sister Silver, few took notice of you until just recent weeks.  And yet, what an incredible year you’ve had!  Like Gold, your settle yesterday at 62.09 is an All-Time Weekly Closing High, which per the above table places you +112% year-to-date, let alone your having also en route achieved an All-Time Intraday High to 65.09, at which price you momentarily were +122% in 2025.

Moreover:  as herein a week ago graphically portrayed would be inevitable, the Gold/Silver ratio fully reverted to its evolving mean (69.4x century-to-date), penetrating it to 66.7x during Thursday; (it settled the week at 69.7x).

And for the “johnny-come-lately” FinMedia came the usual “having just figured it out” hype.  “Oh Silver is going to 100!” they say; “Oh Silver is gonna hit 200!!” they say; “Oh Silver will get to 300!!!” they say.  (Yes, we’ve seen all three prognosticative “reports”).

But we “say” let’s instead do the math, ok?  For what reasonably is Silver’s Fair Value today?

Again, ’tis a simple calculation as we’ve previously presented.  Per the opening Gold Scoreboard, the Fair Value for the yellow metal is presently 3893.  Divide that by the mean of the Gold/Silver ratio (69.4x) et voilà the Fair Value of the white metal is now 56.08.  Thus currently priced at 62.09, we may “say” that Silver is +11% overvalued.  Too, by her “textbook technicals” (our cocktail of Relative Strength, Stochastics and John Bollinger’s Bands), Silver is now 22 consecutive trading days “overbought”; (by comparison, Gold and Copper both are 11 days “overbought”) … all that just in case you’re scoring at home.

But:  at least Silver finally has achieved an area of rational market valuation.  “Brava Brava, Sista Silva!!”

As for good old precious Gold, on its way to making this fresh All-Time Weekly Closing High, the weekly parabolic Short trend again met a “short-lived” end.  Since February 2024, there have been five such parabolic Short trends of 3, 3, 10, 10 & 3 weeks; but those Long have been 17, 16, 17, 16 & 17 weeks.  Indeed, the similarity of the Long trends’ durations is striking: “Uh oh, it’s magic” –[The Cars, ’84].  And now a new one has begun, (technically come Monday’s open),

However, ’tis actually not magic; rather ’tis math that makes the next graphic’s newly-encircled blue dot appear.  And today priced at 4330, Gold in 2025 is +64%, with the All-Time Intraday High from 20 October still in place at 4398.  As for the just “failed” Short trend of only three red-dotted weeks, it opened on Monday 24 November at 4069 and was snuffed out yesterday at 4330.  (Reminder:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”).  Rather, we’re “pleased as punch” indeed, HHH:

“But ‘HHH’ was more pro-fiat than precious metals, mmb…”

Hardly a Gold bug he was, Squire, and whilst in his second stint as Senator, did not criticize oppositional Nixon’s nixing of the Gold Standard (15 August ’71).  However, post-mortem, HHH was presented a Congressional Gold Medal.

Meanwhile, as to the mortality of the Economic Barometer, one must consider the “s“-word:  “stagflation“.  For an “unintended inference” was right in the opening paragraph from last Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement:

  • “Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.”

So clearly pre-vote, the FOMC had reviewed our September Inflation Summary Table from last week’s missive in which nearly every datapoint was “above target”.  However, the Committee instead gave deference to the slowing (and by ADP’s data “shrinking”) stance of the job market.  Nine of the voters favoured the FedFunds -0.25% rate cut to the now 3.50%-3.75% target range; one even voted for -0.50%.

But a tip of the cap to both Kansas City FedPrez Jeffrey Schmid and Chicago FedPrez Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee by more intelligently voting for no change.  For the reason to actually raise (stubborn inflation) + the reason to cut (accretive unemployment) ought = no change.  ‘Course combined, they’ll lead to stagflation.  ‘Tis a very tricky time for the Fed.  And with all due respect to Chairman Powell, given his term ends come May, perhaps ’tis best to let the next Federal Reserve leader worry about it all.

So as we turn to the Econ Baro (with 43 “shutdown” metrics still missing), ’tis taken a bit of a dip:

Speaking of dips, how did that of yesterday in the S&P 500 work out for ya?  The 60-minute period from 15:00-16:00 GMT sported the seventh-worst single hour drop by points (-62) since mid-year.  One can feel the fragility of the S&P making itself more manifest with each notably negative news event.  And as we oft update, the dividend yield for the all-to-risk S&P today (1.146%) is less than one-third that of the annualized three-month U.S. risk-free (in theory) Treasury Bill (3.525%).  Further, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P settled the week at 56.0x.  Still, the good news is that as this Investing Age of Stoopid sallies forth, neither yield nor earnings have relevance, (nor does your portfolio theory education).

‘Course, just as Gold had relevance for the Egyptians ’round 3000 BC, so does it today.  And as we go to the yellow metal’s two-panel graphic featuring the daily bars from three months-ago-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis quite the healthy picture.  The baby blue dots of regression trend consistency after a wee stumble are renewing their upside push, whilst the Profile shows heavily-dominant volume support at the labeled 4237 apex:

Too for the white metal, her resemblance to Gold is sufficiently positive, with both the rising “Baby Blues” (below left), and Profile (below right) sporting support at 58.85:

Thus year-to-date for the precious metals ’tis been great, albeit arguably quite extended given both Gold and Silver presently +11% above Fair Value.  In fact by rounding out the Metals Triumvirate, Copper also is having a fine year +33%, its sixth-best this century.  That, too, has brought some bounce to Sister Silver from her industrial metal aspect, although we can also credit Copper as being money, certainly so from the Bronze Age (2000 BC).

Regardless, per our title, Gold has beamed back to Long with Silver screaming so strong!  Which reminds us that upon blending in your Osterizer precious Gold with industrial Copper and pressing “puree”, you of course get Silver!  (Metallurgists, please hold your email):

Either way, collect all three today!!!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 838 – (06 December 2025) – “Gold Sinks Slightly as Silver Skirts Sixty”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 838th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 06 December 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Sinks Slightly as Silver Skirts Sixty“

So let’s begin with the Gold/Silver ratio, by which these last several years we’ve gone on time-and-again as to the white metal being “the better buy” over the yellow metal.  Thus straight away from the “Everything Reverts to the Mean Dept.”, we’ve our century-to-date run of that ratio replete with its evolving mean.  And given yesterday’s (Friday’s) respective settles for Gold (4228) and Silver (58.80), their ratio today is down to 71.9x, its lowest level (prior to this past week) since 05 August 2021 and its closest approach to the mean (currently 69.4x) since 12 July 2021 (the mean then 66.3x).  Here’s the current ratio per the red arrow:

Indeed “the better buy” has been Sweet Sister Silver, coming yesterday within a hair’s breadth of touching the 60.00 milestone.  From 2024’s settle at 29.29 to yesterday’s all-time high of 59.90 saw her up +104.5% year-to-date, whereas Gold at best (4398) has achieved “only” a +66.6% gain, (oh darn).

Yet we query:  what is Silver really worth?

Because we have a Fair Value for Gold and a mean for the Gold/Silver ratio, the arithmetic (a lost science in finance today) otherwise can be performed for those of you scoring at home.  From the opening Scoreboard we have Gold’s Fair Value (“GFV”) now 3890.  The noted Gold/Silver ratio mean (“GSM”) is now 69.4x.  Therefore (at the risk of you WestPalmBeachers glazing over down there), we can solve for Silver’s Fair Value (“SFV”):

  • GFV ÷ GSM = SFV … ► … 3890 ÷ 69.4 = 56.05

Fairly riveting stuff, what?

“That’s cute, mmb, but what does it really mean?”

Two answers, Squire:

  • By anchoring Silver to Gold’s Fair Value with the ratio’s mean, Silver today at 58.80 is overvalued by +4.9% (“ought be” 56.05);

  • However, priced purely to today’s actual Gold price (4228) and the ratio’s mean, Silver in fact remains undervalued by -3.5% (“ought be” 60.91).

Thus buying parties of the second persuasion might take the other side of the trade from those of the first persuasion who are selling, in turn driving Silver above the 60.00 milestone.  Else solely by these measures — and barring Gold getting a substantive launch from here — Silver’s amazing run (for now) may be done.

Too, like Gold, Silver is money (just ask your Anatolian ancestors), albeit as we oft caution, she is at times substantively influenced by Cousin Copper, to the extent that he can subversively seduce her.  ‘Tis always an annoying affair.

All that stated, Gold’s ongoing Short stint nonetheless has (so far) been bullish.  Having “officially” commenced back per the open on Monday, 24 November at 4069, Gold has only declined by as much as -33 points (to 4036) and instead has risen by as much as +230 points (to 4299).  As we’ve depicted in recent missives, such weekly parabolic Short trends for some two years have been Gold buying opportunities rather than exit signals.  And thus to the weekly bars and Parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date we go, featuring the rightmost red-dotted Short “Up” stint:

‘Course, “Short” could kick in to the downside, especially should next Wednesday’s Policy Statement from the Federal Open Market Committee maintain the Funds Rate in the 3.75%-to-4.00% target range.

“Well ya know they’re gonna cut, eh mmb?”

Squire just saw the piece from the ever-venerable Reuters:  “Economists double down on December Fed cut despite policymaker divide.”  Notably weakening jobs data, (regardless of never-to-be-resolved “shutdown” reporting gaps) favours a rate reduction.  However:  inflation favours a rate rise given price increases remaining above the Fed’s 2% target range as we next see in September’s at long-last completed puke-green summary:

Thus the “…policymaker divide” — i.e. a few of the FOMC voters may recommend no rate move — can be supported by inflation offsetting jobs creation (or lack thereof).  And have we this year on occasion mentioned the “s” word “stagflation“?  Oh yes.

Specific to the Economic Barometer which — “with government out of the way” — had been on the move up, this past seek decidedly recorded a move down.  14 metrics — in arrears or otherwise — found their way into the Baro this past week, of which just four improved period-over-period, the big stinker (favouring a Fed cut) being ADP’s Employment reading for November that showed job shrinkage for the fourth month in the last six.  Here’s the graphic, still with 49 metrics missing:

And yes, Virginia, in that display the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 truly is now an “off the edge of the bell curve” 58.0x, the mighty Index having settled yesterday at 6870, a mere -50 points below its all-time intraday high of 6920 (29 October).  ‘Tis too bad earnings are not sufficient enough to keep pace with price, (let alone an “M2” money supply of $22.4T that is vastly unsupportive of the S&P’s $60.8T market capitalization).  Reprise:  “When the levee breaks…” –[McCoy/Minnie ’29; Led  Zeppelin ’71].

However, hovering of late as if a zeppelin unto itself has been Gold.  But as we turn to the two-panel display of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, one senses some descent.  Note therein the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency having ticked lower for the past two days.  Too, price has slipped below its most volume-dominant Profile support level of 4237.  Not that this absolutely turns the tide, but it does remind us that hardly do markets move in a straight line:

Silver’s like picture appears a bit more healthy, albeit her just-recorded all-time high (below left) lacks confirmation from Gold.  And she’s presently-priced right ’round that Profile apex of 58.85 (below right), with nearby underlying support as labeled at 58.00 and 57.40:

To wrap, per our title, Gold sank slightly (-0.7% net for the week) as Silver skirted sixty (+3.0% net for the week).  And now Sister Silver sits at 58.80, a mere 1.20 points from 60.00, with an expected daily trading range of now 2.24 points.  By such yardstick, Silver can grab 60.00 come Monday.  But then there’s Wednesday and the aforementioned FOMC Policy Statement on the Funds Rate.  A cut almost surely shall see Silver eclipse 60.00.  But what if the Committee instead abstains?

To wit:  as longtime readers of The Gold Update know, our microphones are just about everywhere, including last week at the Eccles Building in D.C. wherein a small contingent of Silver traders came down on the bus from the COMEX in N.Y. to plead Powell for another rate cut.  Squire even arranged for an inconspicuous MINOX camera to capture the moment:



But should such plea fail a cut by which to abide — and prices thus decide to slide — keep Gold and Silver for the ride!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 837 – (29 November 2025) – “Gold’s New Short Trend Shoved Aside; Silver’s Rise to All-Time Highs”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 837th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s New Short Trend Shoved Aside; Silver’s Rise to All-Time Highs“

Remember these two lines from last week?

  • “…across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!”
  • “…across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold…” 

Ya gotta luv it:  Friday a week back, Gold confirmed the commencement of a new weekly parabolic Short trend.  But from this past Monday’s opening print at 4069 (basis December), Gold (after a wee-hours dip to 4036) strapped on the rocket-pack to conclude the week at 4224.  And as contract volume en route rolled from December into that for February, add in another +32 points of fresh premium and Gold settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 4256.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.

To employ a little liberalized latin lingo:  for the “glass half-empty” sagaciti, Gold now priced at 4256 resides +9.5% (+368 points) above the opening Scoreboard’s Fair Value of 3888.  However, the “glass half-full” cognoscenti see Gold as just -3.2% (-142 points) below its 4398 All-Time High.  So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 183 points, (the “daily” per the website being 85 points), next week is within range for Gold to score a further All-Time High.

Which is the perfect segue into Sister Silver.  What a week — indeed a year — for the white metal!  Yesterday, whilst those of you StateSide were lazing about with stomachs a-full, Silver blew the doors off her previous All-Time High of 54.42 (basis December on 13 November) by skyrocketing to 57.25 (basis March).  You WestPalmBeachers down there did not forget the Silver, right? … (in having been herein reminded ad nauseam for some four years to not so do).  To be sure, Gold’s premium-inclusive net gain for the past week was +4.8% … yet that for Silver was +15.0%!  Her powerful performance in turn dropped the Gold/Silver ratio from 81.8x of just a week ago to now 74.6x, the lowest reading since 29 May 2024.  And through the 11 months year-to-date?  Fasten your racing harness:

That’s right, folks:  Silver through November is +94.9%!  Extrapolate her year-to-date pace through the final 22 trading days which remain in 2025, and year-end puts her at 59.74, +104.0%!  From Silver’s Friday settle at 57.09, that 59.74 level is a “mere” +2.65 points away.  “Doable”, you ask?  Absolutely, given Silver’s expected monthly trading range is currently 5.35 points.  Moreover, per the aforementioned Gold/Silver ratio now at 74.6x, were Silver priced today to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.4x, she’d already be +7.4% higher from here at 61.32 … just in case you’re scoring at home in anticipation of means reversion.

Either way, as a celebratory addition for Stellar Sister Silver, we’ve paired her weekly bars and parabolic trends with those of Gold from a year ago-to-date.  And like those of the yellow metal, the white metal’s red-dotted Short trends on balance are not that damaging, indeed having been BuySide optimistic such as to have brought on her latest blue-dotted parabolic Long trend:

Again it being month-end, let’s next go to the year-over-year performance tracks of Gold and key of its equities brethern.  Looking top-down, we’ve the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +124%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +122%, Newmont (NEM) +114%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +113%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +111%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +74%,  and least-leveraged Gold itself nonetheless +62%.  Equities leverage of two-to-one also is a beautiful thAng.  Especially note PAAS during just November:

Life at the top is the current state of the precious metals.  Here we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The respective single white bars are Friday’s settles.  Not bad, eh?

“The High Life” indeed.  Let’s next go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the last 21 trading days (one month), featuring the respective grey linear regression trendlines and baby blue dots that depict the day-to-date consistency of each trend.  The precious metals’ panels are framed in vivid violet, just for emphasis.  And how ’bout dat Copper!

 

“So can we play your tune, mmb?”  Spin it, Squire:

“Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”

(Squire has this closet DJ thing going on of late).  

Now to peek at the Economic Barometer and accompanying S&P 500 (red line).  And you know the old expression that when government is out of the way, (i.e. “gridlock is good”), the economy is less suffocated.  However:  even though nearly three weeks have passed since the StateSide “shutdown” was resolved, there actually is an increase in missing metrics as bureaus are strained to “catch-up”.  In fact, since 01 October, there’ve been 98 scheduled Econ Baro metrics, of which half (49) are now missing; a week ago ’twas 46.  All that said, such absence of data has evolved into a rising Baro such that we penned in yesterday’s Prescient Commentary “…the Econ Baro has returned to its highest level since last February, which if detected by the FOMC may see rates held steady rather than cut come the 10 December Policy Statement….”:

Sadly of course per the graphic, earnings remain unsupportive of the S&P’s catastrophically high price level.  (But then again, that’s archaic old-school piffle; today nobody cares).

Toward this week’s wrap we’ve the Gold Structure by the month across the past 16 years.  Concern over the last month’s “failed” October candle was short-lived, albeit let us be cognizant that we’ve only just begun a weekly parabolic Short trend, (which with bullish persistance, too, shall fail of its own accord).

“Here ya go mmb, Carpenters 1970…” “We’ve only just begun…” 

Indeed, “DJ” Squire.  Aren’t you instead supposed to be on avalanche control this time of year?

“Yeah mmb, during next month up in the Haute-Tarentaise.”

You might mind the S&P as well, Squire, as when it goes over the cliff, ’tis gonna be scary!  Meanwhile, here’s the happy Gold Structure:

We wrap with a deserving spotlight on Sister Silver.  Yesterday whilst deep within the bowels of our highly-securitized, electrified/sarinized-guarded metals’ facility, we came across this rather severely-tarnished, 105-year-old 1923 U.S. Silver “Peace” Dollar.  Curious to solely its silver content value, we did the math, marked to the current Silver price of $57.09.  It’s 90% pure Silver content amounts to .7734 troy ounces:  thus such One Dollar coin is today worth $44.15 (plus a collectible premium).  That’s a whole lotta currency debasement … “Got Silver?”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 836 – (22 November 2025) – “Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 836th & 16th Anniversary Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold’s Key Weekly Trend Flips Short“

Welcome to the 16th Anniversary Edition of The Gold Update. What began 835 Saturdays ago on 21 November 2009 as a single paragraph and chart for one JGS has since evolved (in our proud opinion) to the finest weekly writing in the known universe as regards the current stance of the price of Gold.  And our humble thanks to those of you who have expressed words to that effect over these many years.  On with the show.

As anticipated in recent missives, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend — after an amazing 17-week run on the Long side — yesterday (Friday) confirmed the awaited flip to Short.  For those of you scoring at home, the flip provisionally arrived this past Tuesday at 04:20 GMT per our post on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold having penetrated below the protective parabolic price of 4004.  Gold then moved on to settle its fourth down week in the past five at 4063, which by the above Scoreboard is nonetheless still +169 points (+4.3%) over Fair Value (3894).   So some additional pullback wouldn’t be untoward.

Yet across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!

“Because in each one of those, price hasn’t really gone down a lot, right mmb?”

Conclusively correct, Squire.  But before providing that proof, let’s first below go to Gold by the week from a year ago-to-date, wherein encircled above the rightmost bar we now have the first red dot heralding the commencement of this new Short trend; too, we’ve drawn a structural support line at 3534:

Regardless:  if this fresh Short trend is anything similar to the past four Short trends during the last two years, Gold may hardly fall at all!  Let’s go inside the numbers.

The following table depicts each weekly parabolic trend (alternating Long…Short…Long…et cetera) for said two years.  Note the “Duration” column:  the five Long trends have each lasted 16-17 weeks (how consistent is that!) whereas the four Short trends have paled in length.  Moreover:  look at the fabulous maximum gains of the Longs vs. comparatively “zilch” (technical term) for the Shorts.  However, should such ShortSide adversity continue, does Gold reach down to that 3534 support level?  By these mathematical parameters, no:

As for the most recent (now complete) Long trend, that maximum gain of $107k (were you impossibly prescient to have exited at the high) is not a typo.  To trade one Gold contract requires initial margin of $17k to control 100 ounces.  Per the opening price (as shown) of 3321 up to the All-Time High at 4398 = +1,077 points x $100/point = $107k for a +629% leveraged account gain in just 60 trading days (from 28 July to 20 October).  Unleveraged, even just a single one-ounce Gold coin gained +32%.  As for the herd’s “Nuthin’ but Nvidia!” (NVDA) across that same stint?  +6.4%.  Which one did you have?

All that said, Gold can of course have a far more negative Short trend than has been the case these last two years.  Not that you wish to be reminded, but from 05 November 2012 to 03 June 2013 Gold went on a 31-week parabolic Short trend within which price plummeted -21%; a repeat of that from here (4063) would place Gold back in the low 3200s.  But as firmly flies Gold’s fundamental flag, let’s even see if support at 3534 actually gets tested.  For across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold rather than price plunges.

And an initial price for which to watch is a retest of 3901, which is the intra-day low of 28 October, following Gold having made that recent All-Time High at 4398 back on 20 October.

Such negative notions notwithstanding, you know the rule:  “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.”  And thus contrary to Gold’s new parabolic Short trend, we next view the following two-panel graphic of the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Clearly therein, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency are rising … but such rise may be short-lived (pun intended) unless Monday is a substantive up day.  As for the Profile, price at present is churning about in the 4089-4061 volume-dominant congestion zone:

Further, with the same graphical layout for Silver, her “Baby Blues” (below left) already have just kinked a notch lower (albeit barely so per the rightmost blue dot).  And by the white metal’s Profile (below right), 50.75 is the most volume-dominant overhead resistor, price having settled the week at 49.66.  But as Gold has come off from the prior week, more so has Silver:  just back on 12 November, the Gold/Silver ratio was 78.9x, its lowest reading in better than a year.  But through these last seven trading days wherein Gold has dropped -3.3%, Silver has fallen -6.7%, the ratio thus having increased to now 81.8x.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!  ‘Course year-to-date, she’s up “only” +69.5%!

Turning to the economy and stock market, as stated on the next graphic we’ve still 46 missing Economic Barometer metrics — some of which according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics shan’t ever be calculated — due to the recent StateSide government “shutdown”.  Still, last Thursday came a “data dump” for seven weeks of back-dated Initial Jobless Claims.  And all told for last week, 21 metrics hit the Baro of which 13 improved period-over-period:  thus we’ve the up lurch in its blue line, even as the S&P 500 came further unglued.  At least we can look forward to the Santa Claus Rally, right?

“Uh, those don’t always happen, mmb…”

Squire (as usual) has the facts at his fingertips:  for the S&P’s 24 Decembers century-to-date, eight (33%) have been net negative.  Sorry, Santa, should it not ensue.  Meanwhile, here’s the Baro to view:

Too, this past week brought the conclusion of Q3 Earnings Season:  for the S&P’s 503 constituents, 448 reported in the seasonal timeframe, of which an admirable 71% improved their bottom lines over Q3 a year ago; we say “admirable” as the average such improvement for the last eight years is 66%.  However:  it remains problematic that the overall level of earnings is still way too low to maintain the stratospheric valuation of the S&P, the honestly-calculated “live” price/earnings ratio now 51.5x, and the Index all but yield-less (1.202%).

As for Gold, we’ll watch how the new Short trend unfolds.  If such history from the past two years holds, for buyers ’tis a time to be bold!  Nonetheless, in any event, hang on to your Gold!

Oh Squire, you shouldn’t have… Rather, go fetch the rain-chilled Taittinger!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 835 – (15 November 2025) – “Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 835th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Flies, Silver Highs … Both Into End-of-Week Demise“

Recall from last week’s piece our notion of the prices for both Gold and Silver “basing” rather then succumbing to indications of further downside?

“Right, mmb, ’cause your ‘Baby Blues’ of trend consistency were still dropping, but prices were holding…”

Spot-on as ever you are, Squire.  And following such “basing”, this past week saw the precious metals soar to the sky, notably so Silver which on Thursday recorded another All-Time High at 54.42 … only to then fall on Friday from the blue.  To be sure, come that record high, Silver was up as much as +12.8% in just four trading days, then settling yesterday (Friday) at 50.40 with still a welcome +4.5% gain for the week.  Gold also come Thursday saw its price fly, reaching as high as 4250 (+6.0% then week-to-date) only to also suffer demise with a comparatively weaker weekly gain of +1.9% in closing at 4084.

Specific to Gold, its recent weekly losing streak was held to three.  However, this past up week has left little room for the parabolic Long trend to continue, (barring price shooting higher come Monday).  Gold’s expected daily trading range is now 103 points and the weekly 178 points.  But as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, from the current 4084 price to the “flip-to-Short” level at 4004 is just -80 points from here, and thus is well within reach of a single day’s trading session.  Too, during Friday’s demise, Gold high-to-low fell -183 points (-4.3%), i.e. its present trading momentum is negative:

As well, this is a fine opportunity to share from the website the Market Magnets for Gold below on the left with Silver on the right.  Derived from the Market Profiles, a Market Magnet is essentially the volume-weighted consensus price across the past fortnight.  We refer to it as a “Magnet” as ’tis difficult for price to stray too far away before snapping back to the Magnet, (which itself, of course, doesn’t stay static).  Both panels show the last three months-to-date, price being the thin line and the Magnet — as labeled at right — the thick line.  The oscillator at the foot of each panel is the difference of price less Magnet.  And when price penetrates the Magnet, ’tis the near-term direction in which to trade, (although as we regularly caution:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”)  That nonetheless stated,  both metals now look poised to pierce their respective Magnets to the downside:

In staying with the three months-to-date theme, here next we’ve the daily bars and (as Squire referenced) “Baby Blues”, the dots which depict the consistency of trend.  Below for both Gold at left and Silver at right  we’ve encircled the aforementioned “basing” period prior to last week’s rallies.  And for both metals, such price climbs have been sufficient to reverse the “Baby Blues” from their respective declines.  That however noted, the rightmost bar in each case shows the bulk of Friday’s gains having evaporated:

In turn, such price pullback is well-reflected in the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right).  The single white bars (present prices) in each panel are currently at the midpoints of these last two weeks, with a bevy of labeled support and resistance levels all ’round:

Still, what need be rounded up is all the missing data for the Economic Barometer.  Through the concluded (for now) StateSide government “shutdown” — plus these initial days beyond — 54 of 75 incoming Econ Baro metrics have gone unreported, if even calculated.  (Wednesday’s White House expectedly-biased presser included:  “…The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period…”)

Politics aside, the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting (09-10 December) shall have a dearth of data with which not to deal, in turn affecting in the Policy Statement their otherwise boilerplate phrase “…the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook…”  ‘Course, a good three weeks of data comes due between now and then … to the extent it can be pieced together as the government reporting bureaus come back on line.

As for the 21 metrics privately reported during the “shutdown”, period-over-period saw nine improve and 12 worsen; (we’ll do our part to try to fax that fact over to the FOMC).  Either way at the end of it all, here’s the Baro on balance still standing tall, but sans so many metrics that it could well fall:

And per the above graphic, is the S&P 500 (“live” price/earnings ratio 54.4x) wisely waving the white flag?  Our preference is instead the Gold flag as we go to the Stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  4392 (20 October 2025)
2025’s High:  4392 (20 October 2025)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  4374 (20 October 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4248 (from 3938) = +310 points or +7.9%
Trading Resistance:  Profile notables 4087 / 4119 / 4137 / 4206 / 4238
Gold Currently:  4084, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  103 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  4079
Trading Support:  Profile notables  4052 / 4015 / 3994 / 3979 / 3961 / 3948
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  4004
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3890
The 300-Day Moving Average:  3168 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Let’s wind it up here with a brief revisit of Nvidia about which we mused in last 12 July’s missive.  At today’s writing, NVDA again is at the top of the S&P pops, sporting a spritely market capitalization of $4.6T, which would make it the fourth-largest nation by nominal Gross Domestic Product in the world!  However, (for those of you scoring at home), that compares to its present balance sheet net worth of “only” $100B.

Now:  imagine you are buying in the States a new house, the median value for which in August was $413,500.  Query:  would you instead pay $19,108,377 for that house?  Obviously no.  Yet if NVDA today was that house, that’s how much you’d pay for it, (were you a wealthy, albeit daft, WestPalmBeacher down there).

“But, mmb, the price of NVDA is discounting its future earnings.”

Squire, a word to the wise is sufficient:  the future is now.

Indeed as to “The Now”, in ranking the market caps of both the yellow metal and NVDA amongst the largest nominal GDP countries in the world, near-term demise or otherwise, proudly we say for Gold Nation:  “We’re Number One!”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 834 – (08 November 2025) – “Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 834th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold (Yes Really) Records a Third Consecutive Down Week“

Four weeks ago for the first time ever, Gold settled above 4000, indeed at 4036 on Friday, 10 October.  A week hence, Gold bettered that level with a Friday settle at 4268 on 17 October.  And whilst Gold’s three successive Friday settles all have still topped the 4000 milestone, each in turn has been lower:  from then 4126 to 4013 and now to yesterday’s weekly close a tad lower still to 4008.

“So yeah, three down weeks in a row, mmb, but aren’t you being a bit picky?”

Squire, partially picky perhaps, yet with this pointed reprise from last week’s piece:  “…the last time Gold posted … three consecutive down weeks was … one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November)…”  Now a year later in 2025, Gold has again recorded three consecutive down weeks ending 24 October through 07 November.  How’s that for seasonality(!)  And thus from price’s All-Time High recorded just 15 trading days ago on 20 October at 4398, the yellow metal presently is off -8.9% … which is “noise” considering year-to-date Gold is up a net +51.9%, (and Silver the precious metals’ leader +64.6%).

Regardless, over these many years of The Gold Update (our 16th anniversary edition slated for 22 November), we’ve on occasion quoted — irrespective of price — the late great Richard Russell’s maxim that “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold“.  Such statement until very recently essentially has been a truism ever since Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71, (even in having to weather price’s  -45.7% decline from September 2011 into December 2015).  For throughout — until that landmark week ending just this past 03 October — the market price of Gold has mathematically been subordinate to its Fair Value.  But today, per the opening Scoreboard, Gold at 4008 is +120 points above its Fair Value  of 3888.

Thus, from the “Feet on the Ground Dept.” — with the highest respect to Mr. Russell’s maxim — we are reminded of that stated by The Gold Update’s initial charter reader (JGS, whom we paraphrase):  “The day to sell Gold is the day that everybody else wants it.”

And so it came to pass into this past summer’s end that Gold by the public eye metamorphosed from its discarded relic status into that of a meme stock, which in a mere 22 trading days (from 19 September into 20 October) soared +18.2% to the 4398 All-Time High, again in accordance with everyone having instantaneously become a Gold expert.  And to extrapolate that compounding daily rate (+0.815%) for one year “would” exponentially bring Gold by next 19 September to (hold your breath) 28,262 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

So with everybody suddenly jumping onto the Gold Wagon, did you accommodate them by, (as our good StateSide mate THR would state) “taking a few chippies off the table”?  Just don’t get carried away.

To be sure, across Gold’s recent three-week pullback of -8.9%, the past two weeks (albeit downers) are appearing more as a basing period, indeed with daily volatility slowing.  Per the website, here we’ve the “expected daily trading range” (EDTR) for both Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, this neither is price nor its actual daily range; rather from one year ago-to- date ’tis the trading range we “guesstimate” for each ensuing trading day.  And clearly by the rightmost declines, recent excitability over the precious metals is now coming off the boil:

Moreover, Gold’s trading range for the entirety of this past week was “only” 107 points (from 4043 down to 3936):  ’twas the narrowest weekly stint of the past six.  Thus as volatility is slowing, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date.  And therein note with 16 weeks of the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend in place, the remaining wiggle room from here (4008) to the “flip-to-Short” price for this next week at 3936 is but 72 points, i.e. within one session’s EDTR.  So might we see a fourth consecutive down week for Gold?  Heaven forbid!  What might the mass of newly-minted Gold experts be thinking?

Irrespective of how “long” continues this parabolic Long trend, Gold’s “other” blue dots — indeed those “Baby Blues” that depict the consistency of trend — are in full plummet as next displayed at lower left for price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date.  And you regular readers well know the tune: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” –[mmb, circa 2000 A.D.]   But as leerily leading are the Blues, price again is basing more than further falling, having already come well off the 4398 All-Time High.  As well by the 10-day Market Profile at lower right, Gold looks nicely nested in that “fat” volume-dominant trading zone spanning as braced from 4022 down to 3990:

Similarly so, Sister Silver is cheering her apparent basing, even as her “Baby Blues”, too, further their fall (below left).  Unlike Gold however, the white metal’s Profile (below right) is indicative of price having not been as suppressed across the past fortnight.  To wit, the Gold/Silver ratio two weeks ago was 85.2x, whereas ’tis now 83.1x.  Regardless, given the century-to-date average ratio being 69.4x, Silver remains the more attractive metal:  priced to that average ratio today, Silver rather than at 48.23 would be nearly +20% higher at 57.76.  So hang on to sweet Sister Silver!

Let’s next go to what little we know of the Econ Baro.  As therein noted, from October-to-date we’ve 45 missing metrics; so who knows the real stance of the dark blue Economic Barometer line, the StateSide government “shutdown” still in full stride:

As for Q3 Earnings Season (with still two weeks to run), year-over-year results have increased at an above-average pace:  71% of the 428 reporting S&P 500 constituents have improved their respective bottom lines from Q3 a year ago; typically ’tis only around 66%.  That’s the Good News.

Now for the Bad News:  the median earnings per share gain (encompassing 420 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is +9.4%; such improvement instead ought be ’round +100% just to get the price/earnings ratio back down to some reasonable valuation and the yield (1.172%) more competitive with three-month U.S. annualized dough (3.757%).  For as shown in the above graphic, such p/e is presently 55.9x, (the formula provided for proof). “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) begs to differ with 29.3x; but as we’ve stated before, if actually fed that formula, “AI” replies ’tis incapable of obtaining the answer.

Thus be it the “Look Ma!  No Earnings!” crash or the “Look Ma!  No Money!” crash, we — as do many others with whom we communicate — await the inevitable S&P “Dash for Cash!” crash.  After all, given the S&P’s current market capitalization of $59.5T supported by a liquid money supply (“M2” basis) of “only” $22.4T, ’twill be a heckova train wreck … perhaps further derailed by Gold?

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 833 – (01 November 2025) – “Gold Furthers Fall as Called”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 833rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 November 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Furthers Fall as Called“

Through the 44 trading weeks thus far for 2025, Gold therein has recorded a net weekly gain 31 times (70%).  Further, for the year’s 13 net losing weeks, never have there been three in-a-row.  However, for just the fifth time this year, Gold has again recorded back-to-back down weeks.  Shall that extend to three?  Let’s see.

Gold settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 4013.  Albeit a down week, ’twas a fourth consecutive weekly close above the 4000 milestone level.  Yet en route, price furthered its fall to the first of three “fib-based” retracement levels herein called a week ago.  Indeed last Tuesday at 04:24 GMT, Gold traded down to the first level of 3985, continuing that day lower still to 3901, a “scant” 44 points above the second noted level of 3857, (the third being 3729).  We say “scant” given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is now 128 points; at the turn of this century, it took nearly three years to initially move higher by that many points; now such range is “expected” in just one day.

“But for those two other levels, mmb, are you saying they can’t be reached ’cause price won’t go down for a third straight week?”

Dear Squire, price certainly can go on multi-week bearish runs.  Recall during 2016 for the seven weeks ending 11 November through 23 December, Gold recorded net losses for all of them, preceded by a similar seven-week down stint during summer of 2015.  Moreover, the last time Gold posted only three consecutive down weeks was almost exactly one year ago (those in 2024 ending 01 November through 15 November) … just in case you’re scoring at home.  And (pun intended), Gold weakly finished this past week — yes, able to regain 4000 — but ’twas the lowest weekly settle of the past four. 

In the midst of it all, Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend — again by Tuesday’s 3901 low — was within a day’s range of flipping to Short.  And now for the ensuing week, 3901 becomes that flip-to-Short level as stated in our graphic of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date:

“Unless Gold moves higher, right mmb?”

Squire, Gold’s near-term technicals — having been so thoroughly upside strong of late — are now showing signs they’re running out of puff.  To be sure, an intraweek drop from here at 4013 down to 3901 would be a skid of -112 points; however, Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 172 points such that a third consecutive down week could well flip the trend to Short.  But again, year-to-date, Gold has yet to record three successive down weeks, (not that ’tis a trend upon which we’d depend…)

As well, Gold by its BEGOS Market Value (derived by Gold’s movement relative to all five primary BEGOS components, namely the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil & S&P 500) is now only +93 points above its smooth valuation line.  Recall just two weeks ago Gold being better than +600 points above same and our cautioning that price inevitably reverts to the mean, (in this case the Market Value line which presently is 3920).  Notice the exquisite timing of means reversion being coincident with everyone recently having become a Gold expert.  Liquid markets are a beautiful thAng:

Truly beautiful, too, is the year’s ongoing leadership of our Metals Triumvirate in the BEGOS Market Standings, still pristinely led by Sweet Sister Silver.  With ten months now in the books, here’s how it all looks:

As to their travel from a month ago-to-date, here are those markets’ respective daily bars, grey regression trendlines, and beloved “Baby Blues”, the dots indicative of each trendline’s consistency.  Of import (if given little FinMedia notice):  the Dollar Index has risen five of the past seven weeks.  Thus we’ve the negative trendlines for both the Euro and Swiss Franc … and now for Sister Silver, too.  Note that Gold’s trendline has all but rotated to negative, the “Baby Blues” in full cascade.  Time to get a grip … else further dip!

Amplifying the precious metals having pulled back from the highs of two weeks ago are the associated equities.  Gold’s All-Time Closing High back on 20 October at 4374 has since fallen -8.3% to the current 4013 level.  However, every equity product in the following graphic has exceeded that pace of pullback, ranging from -9.0% to -14.7%.  As we on occasion quip:  “Live by the leverage, die by the leverage”.  Clearly, the amplitude of the chart’s Gold line is mild vis-à-vis those of the equities.  Regardless, year-over-over the overall performances remain remarkable.  Therein, Franco-Nevada (FNV) is +36%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +41%, Gold itself +43%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +59%, Newmont (NEM) +69%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +71%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +81%:

Turning to the 10-day Market Profiles, both precious metals seemingly are positioned in and around their most volume-dominate prices of the past two weeks.  For the yellow metal on the left, the denoted 4123-4022 area appears pivotable, whilst for the white metal on the right ’tis her 48.60-47.75 zone:

‘Course it being month-end, we’ve next the Gold Structure graphic of price’s monthly bars from the year 2010-to-date.  The lower areas of the chart still display the many stratified price areas through which we arduously struggled with Gold until finally, just two years ago, “The Infamous Triple Top” was broken, Gold having then been off to the races ever since.  The third of those three tops was 2085 on 04 May 2023, from which to the present All-Time High of 4398 is a gain of +111% in just 2 1/2 years.  As doubtless (barring a deflationary depression) Gold never again shall trade sub-2000, we’re “considering” future versions of this graphic to not extend back past the year 2020.  Still, those older areas are an amazing reminder of what was endured and then how far we’ve come.  As for “The Now”, the rightmost red-braced “failure candle” (October) is exemplary of what happens when — again — suddenly everyone’s a Gold expert, (which for you WestPalmBeachers suggests “The top is in!” … but more broadly, we doubt it):

One can only wonder if StateSide “the top is in” for the economy as there is little data upon which to go.  On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted (not unanimously) to lower its Bank’s Funds Rate -25bp to the 3.75%-4.00% target range, even as the Policy Statement opened with “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.”  Available, indeed:  given the “shutdown”, only 15 of the 49 metrics due for the Economic Barometer during October arrived.  And of those 15, just six improved period-over-period.  There’s your “moderate pace”, baby.  Too, there’s the S&P 500:  is “the top in” there?  Note our table in the Econ Baro of those constituents priced (given almost no earnings) beyond all sensibility.  Better queried:  “Have we crashed yet??”  Here’s the Baro:

To wrap this week, regular readers of The Gold Update know we (as just done) “rib” those “WestPalmBeachers down there”, the claim-to-fame of south Florida’s brightest bulbs being “Hanging Chad” back in 2000 during “W vs. Algore”.

Technically, Florida is one of 50 states comprising the federal union of the U.S.  Fundamentally however, Florida is more of a foreign country unto itself.  Its pencil-thin panhandle barely clings to the southernmost coastline of Alabama and Georgia.  The distance from Miami to Havana, Cuba is just 70% the distance to Jacksonville.   And ’tis written the State’s average elevation is 100 feet (30m).  Florida is FLAT, man.  (In ’64, we visited an auntie there, and given the lack of depth perception, once was enough).

But to the point (hat-tip A.C.):  assuming ratification by the state’s legislature, eight months from this day on 01 July 2026, Florida shall officially acknowledge both Gold and Silver as legal tender in coin form, and without sales tax on purchases thereof.  To quote Grace Slick with The Jefferson Airplane at Woodstock back in ’69:  “It’s the new dawn!”

So for Florida, with Gold and Silver, let fiat be gone!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 832 – (25 October 2025) – “Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 832nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Meme’d Gets Bean’d!“

Gold — in having the prior week been “meme’d” — this past week got “bean’d”.  And anticipatedly so, for as you by now well know, Gold had gotten — and indeed still is  — “ahead of itself”, a phrase familiar to those readers of The Gold Update who’ve been with us when first coined it some 14 years ago.

On the heels of last week’s piece “Gold Goes Meme!” wherein price had traded to as high as 4392, this past week saw a scant six points of further upside on Monday to the now latest All-Time High of 4398 before getting “bean’d” and falling -377 points (-8.6%) to Wednesday’s low of 4021.  As noted Tuesday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold’s intra-day fall of a full -300 points was far and away its worst same-day points-loss in history.  Silver also that day suffered her historically seventh-worst intra-day points loss of -4.50.

It happens.  Certainly so when suddenly — to again reprise — “…everyone’s become a Gold expert…”  (Recall the urban legend of JFK’s pop “Jumpin’ Joe” knowing ’twas time to sell back in ’29 when the shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips).

“But you’re no Kennedy, mmb…”

Squire can’t resist the infamous, historical dig.  But Gold in recent weeks reached that silly state of investor euphoria:  “Well, the Big Banks are loadin’ up, ya know…”  Gold last crossed above our BEGOS Markets’ smooth valuation line back on 20 August (price then 3392).  Since just that date, the herd has taken Gold up to last Monday’s record high of 4398.  ‘Twas an increase for Gold of +1,006 points (+29.7%) in just 43 trading days!  (Imagine having been Long 100 Gold contracts [margin requirement $1,650,000] for a trading profit of $10,060,000 [+610% account gain] in only two months; pretty good juju, that!)

Nonetheless, as herein depicted three weeks ago, Gold en route has well surpassed its Fair Value (now 3875 per the opening Scoreboard).  Thus justifiably “ahead of itself” indeed is our Gold, settling out this most recent week yesterday (Friday) at 4127, which is +252 points above that Fair Value. Moreover, Gold is now +314 points above its smooth valuation line as we below see, wherein Gold’s movements are valued relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  Note therein Dow Jones Newswires’ Tuesday assessment of the (by then) -6.9% correction being a “crash”: 

“So, mmb, where does price go from here?”

Likely lower still for both precious metals, Squire, at least within the vacuum of our linear regression calculus.  A function of the night work is our internal table of BEGOS Markets’ “Baby Blues” signals which alert us to potential change in near-term trend as consistency thereto begins to break apart.  The table at left is per Wednesday’s close confirming a “SELL” for Silver.  This is because her “Baby Blues” in the one-month chart beneath the table fell below the key +80% axis per the red encircled dot.  Then come Friday at right so, too, was confirmed a “SELL” for Gold.  To be sure, both metals’ trends remain positive by their respective grey diagonal lines, but less steeply so.  And as the trading herd later begins to figure that out, we “ought” see still lower prices:

“But how about some actual numbers, mmb…”

Squire, let’s initially acknowledge per the above pair of charts that price for the present has ceased falling; rather, ’tis for the moment consolidating per the rightmost three bars for both metals.  But assuming the “Baby Blues” continue to descend, the recent price declines likely are not at an end.  Let’s first consider the aforeshown chart of Gold’s BEGOS Market Value.  Should Gold (4127) work lower as value (3813) works higher, a back-of-the-napkin jot finds the mid-point at 3970.  Such breaching below the 4000 milestone could then encourage buying. As for Silver (48.41) — whilst broadly she remains very attractively priced relative to Gold — the Gold/Silver ratio average across the past 21 trading days is 83.3x.  Thus priced to that average, Gold at 3970 would place Silver at 47.66.

So hardly any substantive downside damage there.  However, should the correction distance be further down, we came up with a few retracement levels, courtesy of our old mate Leonardo “Fibonacci” Bonacci basis Gold’s last consolidation area which spanned from April through August.  We’ve thus three paired Gold/Silver downside ideas:  3985/47.84 … 3857/46.30 … 3729/44.77 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Rather, if Gold instead merely zooms higher from here, that’s fine.  Just be wary (again) “Gold has gotten ahead of itself”, each ounce willingly bought being an ounce willingly sold.

For 2025, 43 trading weeks are now complete.  Therein, Gold has compiled 31 up weeks (+2.2% average gain) and 12 down weeks (-1.9% average loss).  Indeed, 11 of the past 13 weeks have been up.  Year-to-date, Gold is now +56.4%, still bettered by Silver +65.3%.  And as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the aforementioned “consolidation area” appears relatively contained mid-chart by the red-dotted parabolic Short trend, during which stint price didn’t materially drop a wit.  As for the ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend (now 14 weeks in duration), note the “flip-to-Short” (bad idea) level for the ensuing week is 3840, some -287 points south of here (4127).  So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 165 points, a second consecutive down week ought not thwart the Long trend:

Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Not surprisingly, price is well-down in both cases, Gold notably just a few points above its most volume-dominant supporter of 4123.  As for Sister Silver, she looks safe down to her denoted 47.90 level … but should Gold fold, Sister Silver too shall further her downside mode:

Meanwhile, the Economic Barometer remains unfulfilled:  39 metrics are to have been received since the start of the StateSide government “shutdown” effective 01 October.  But with 26 thus far missing, just 13 have been received — including a surprise on Friday:  September’s Consumer Price Index was issued; (more on that in the wrap).  Otherwise, amongst all 13 of the incoming metrics, just five improved period-over-period.  Lookin’ a bit rickety, our Baro, as we ever-anticipate for stocks “Stormy Weather” –[Arlen/Koehler, ’33].  And yes, Virginia, if you actually perform the math (a science apparently unemployed by the modern-day money manager), the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 settled yesterday at 50.5x, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means portfolio theory is a thing of the past):

So as teased, we wrap with yesterday’s surprise release of the CPI, (both the headline and core readings a bit hot for the Fed’s liking).  But our immediate response was:  “Did the ‘shutdown’ just end?”  Quickly we checked … but … no.  Yet, after all, the CPI like so many Econ Baro metrics is released by a federal government agency, in this case the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which did not first report the scheduled  Producer Price Index.

But then we found out what happened with respect to the CPI:  in order for the Social Security Administration (which is not fully “shutdown”) to keep benefit check payouts in pace with inflation, “They gotta have that CPI, baby!”  We thus give a tip of the cap to whoever he/she/it was that snuck into the otherwise shuttered BLS — perhaps heroically in the wee hours on personal time — to gather, crunch, arrange and release the data.  ‘Tis most appreciated and deserving of a year-end bonus.

As to a potentially negative near-term course for Gold, appreciate what ’tis, indeed add to your load!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 831 – (18 October 2025) – “Gold Goes Meme!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 831st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Goes Meme!“

 

This past Wednesday evening, Gold having surpassed the 4200 level, our doorbell rang.  ‘Twas unexpectedly a fine friend whose first four words excitedly were:  “I just bought Gold!!”

Not wanting to spray a cold spritz on our happy camper — Gold at that point trading better than +300 points above Fair Value, let alone better than +500 points above our BEGOS Market Value — we encouragingly replied:  “You do intend to hold it for a long time, yes?”  … “Well, sure, I guess” came the response.  “Great,” we said, “you’ll be fine.”  For given time, surely Gold shall further climb … but as we saw yesterday (Friday) hardly in a straight-up line.

Since said enthusiastic chat, Gold went on to the settle the week at 4268, inclusive of All-Time Closing Highs on each of Monday through Thursday, and come Friday an All-Time Intraday High of 4392.

But: then came the El Plungo (technical term): from that intraday high of 4392, Gold plummeted to 4196 in recording the largest intraday loss of -196 points in price’s entire history!  By percentage, (for those of you scoring at home), such -4.5% intraday drop ranks in the 98th percentile, (the worst being a -12.1% intraday drop from 321 to 282 away back on 28 September 1999).

To be sure, we’ve written repeatedly through recent editions of The Gold Update as well as in the daily Prescient Commentary that Gold has excessively exceeded its BEGOS Market Value, and now across the past two weeks as well its Fair Value; (note the enhancements to the above Gold Scoreboard).  All that stated, the yellow metal year-to-date is now +61.7%.

Moreover, Silver relative to Gold continues to remain “the better value” in spite of settling at a weekly record closing high of 50.63, en route reaching up to 53.77(!)

‘Course, upon Gold further correcting — which we’re fully expecting — the white metal, too, shall be dragged down.  But we still say she’s cheap “relative“ to the yellow metal given the Gold/Silver ratio is 84.3x vis-à-vis the century-to-date average of 69.4x.  Were Silver priced today to that ratio’s average, she’d be a further +21.6% higher at 61.54.  Regardless, the white metal thus far for 2025 is now +72.8%.  Yes, really.

“But you’re looking for price to revert to the BEGOS value mean, right mmb?”

For Gold, yes Squire, because it inevitably happens.  In appraising Gold vis-à-vis its Market Value (wherein we assess price’s movement relative to those of the five primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil and S&P 500) let’s turn to the following graphic.  ‘Tis Gold’s daily closes from one year ago-to-date astride the smooth valuation line to which price always reverts per the oscillator (price less value) in the lower panel.  And as depicted, Gold presently at 4268 is +527 points above that value (3741).  As the valuation line itself is rising, the midpoint between the two is 4005, albeit price is subject to falling far faster than does the smooth line rise:

 “So mmb, price could actually get back down into the 3000s, eh?”

Certainly none of us know, Squire.  But Gold historically has a hankering to significantly downward correct.  Remember Gold’s great gallop from September 2007 into March 2008?  ‘Twas a seven-month +52% run to an All-Time High at 1034; but come October of that year, Gold had then floundered -34% to as low as 681.  Too, there was the eight-month +44% run during 2011 from February into September, Gold then reaching that infamous All-Time High of 1923 which would then stay in place for nearly nine years through which price suffered a pullback of -45%.  And now from just this past April, Gold has gained +48%.  To quote the late, great Yogi Berra, is this going to be “Déjà vu all over again”?  On verra, mes amis…

Still, in keeping with our title for this week, the Big Deal is Gold’s rather suddenly having morphed from  its “nothing more than an old relic, conservative, non-yielding” status into that of the modern-day meme stock.  Next month brings the 16th anniversary of The Gold Update.  Across most of that stint, under-owned Gold has been otherwise regularly relegated by financial wizards to the ash heap of forgotten obsolescence, even as century-to-date it has vastly outperformed the S&P 500 by 3x.  Now however, that’s all changed.  To wit:

TheFinMedia today is rife with “highly-intellectual” pieces underscoring the same Gold-ownership rationale of which we’ve been writing for the past 16 years.   As herein penned two missives ago:  “…it suddenly seems that everyone’s become a Gold expert…”  Honestly, are they just figuring all this out now?  Where have they been?  In recent weeks we’ve been inundated by friends and acquaintances telling us all about Gold.  Gold has gone meme, just as did GameStop, AMC and Bed Bath and Beyond as pushed by the “Let’s all buy high!” crowd.  We hope that — unlike those memes — Gold doesn’t follow suit and crash.  Nor do we think ’twill.  But reversion to the mean (not meme) is in order, as unlike those stocks that were meme’d, Gold shan’t get creamed.

“Still, mmb, price has gone up for nine weeks in-a-row…”

Squire, on a mutually-exclusive basis that has occurred but three other times so far this century, the longest such stint being 12 consecutively higher weeks during the aforementioned uptrend which began in 2007.  And Friday’s record-setting intraday points-drop may signify that the top is in place at least for the near-term.  Regardless, as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, this past week’s low (4011) is an extreme +5.5% above the dashed linear regression trendline (3804), such deviation century-to-date being nearly off the end of the Bell Curve (in the 93rd percentile):

With respect to Gold potentially correcting at least over the near-term, the above graphic’s graveyard regardless reminds us that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”  Still, let’s next assess the daily bars for the precious metals from three months ago-to-date, featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  In both cases, the baby blue dots of linear regression trend consistency have been housed above the key +80% axis for nearly six weeks, a firm indication of their sustained uptrends.  However, as regular readers and website visitors know, upon the “Baby Blues” sinking below that level, lower prices likely are on the way.  And with both metals closing well off their rightmost Friday highs, again a near-term top may be in place:

Too, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), we can see the demise from Friday’s highs.  By the labeled volume-dominant prices, Gold would appear to have a bit more underlying support than does Silver.  ‘Tis not that rare a condition, especially should Silver couple up with Cousin Copper, whose own “Baby Blues” just confirmed a break below the +80% axis, (which you can view on the website).  Thus shall Sweet Sister Silver discard for a time her precious metal pinstripes in exchange for her industrial metal jacket?  She does on occasion stray that way…  Here are the Profiles:

Unable to materially stray — due to the “shutdown” of the StateSide government — has been the Economic Barometer.  From 01 October-to-date, there’ve been 32 scheduled metrics for the Baro … of which just nine have made the trip.  Four so did this past week, amongst which three bettered their prior period:  October’s New York State Empire and National Association of Homebuilders Indices, along with September’s Treasury Budget.  The week’s sole loser was the Philly Fed Index for October.  As for the 23 “missing links”, it remains to be seen (should the government ever reconvene) how they’ll affect the Baro’s scene.  Until such time passes, here ’tis as is:

Toward wrapping, just a brief word on the S&P 500.  ‘Tis Q3 Earnings Season, which so far (whilst still very early) is running well:  79% of the 39 reported constituents have beaten their Q3 of a year ago.  Problematic is that the overall level of earnings remains unsupportive of the Index’s level (6664) given the honestly calculated price/earnings ratio (48.9x, the formula for which we’ve herein posted on numerous occasions).  And per this next graphic of the past week’s S&P 500 Futures by the hour, the “inching-up buying” is being repetitively met with “slamming-down selling”.  Thus, such word to you  WestPalmBeachers down there we hope is sufficient:

We close with this hilarious headline of the week, courtesy of The Edge, Malaysia:  “Bitcoin, Binance-Linked Coin Struggle After Historic Wipeout”.  In perusing the piece, ‘twould seem that corrections of 3%-to-20% are now deemed as “wipeouts”.  ‘Twill be (dare we say) edge-of-the-seat stuff to read just how a 30% correction might be so characterized.  Just sayin’… “Oh steady on there, lad!” 

A pending correction or otherwise for meme-like Gold, one may buy that sold for more to hold!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 830 – (11 October 2025) – “Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 830th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye“

Ya gotta love October.  Silver finds fresh sky above 50 even as Gold takes a gut-punch from its new 4081 high, and the S&P at long last says “Goodbye!”  Recall our closing query from a week ago?

“I do, mmb.  You wrote:  ‘Have we crashed yet?’”

And, Squire, so the S&P has … or at least is appearing … to commence a crash.  For after all, giving up a full month of stock market gains yesterday (Friday) in just six hours is serious!  By Wall Street’s back-of-the-napkin estimate, stock market gains are generally given back at two-to-three times the pace of which they rise.  But yesterday’s selling was 21x the pace of a month’s entire gain!

“Also, what do you now mean, mmb, that Gold took a gut-punch, because it is at record highs!”

Squire, let’s summarize all three of these:  Silver, Gold, and the S&P.

  • Silver was the darling of this past week even in netting a wee loss (-0.9%) by settling yesterday (Friday) at 47.52.  Nonetheless, during both Thursday and Friday, “spot” Silver briefly traded for the first time ever over 50, indeed to as high in the sky as 51.24, albeit its more liquid December futures contract did not exceed 49.97, still an All-Time High of its own accord.  So:  Brava Brava Sista Silva!!

     

  • Gold too recorded new highs in exceeding 4000 on Tuesday at 00:28 GMT as we posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), moving further on Wednesday to the new All-Time High of 4081.  But come Thursday Gold got gut-punched in falling intraday high-to-low by -120 points, the eighth-largest same-day points’ loss thus far this century.  “Fortunately”, come Friday’s inflationary “Trump Tariff!” scare, Gold recovered to a record weekly close (admittedly -45 points below the week’s high) at 4036.  So:  Gold wins over Trump n’ China rare earth tariff tricks!

     

  • As for the S&P 500, we’ve gone on and on and on since its post-COVID recovery about the Index’s ridiculous overvaluation in this “Investing Age of Stoopid”; but the tariff indication of inflation — as we’ve oft cautioned stagflation — finally was the catalyst rightly to make it all go wrong.  What was amazing, upon the S&P actually opening higher to begin its Friday session, the “live” price/earnings ratio actually touched 50.0x!  ‘Twas as if those who actually can do math saw it and declared:  “That’s IT!  SELL!!“ 

Regardless of your catalytic choice, ‘twould appear “The Crash” at long last has perhaps begun.  So, as to “How low does the S&P go?”, let’s update our 50-year view of the S&P 500 with its yellow-bounded regression channel and red “had COVID never happened” channel.  The imbedded photo with the encircled p/e was taken just after Friday’s up opening.  Does the S&P return to its regression channel?

“So that little down hitch at the right is a ‘crash’, mmb?”

Squire, remember the “little down hitch” on Monday, 27 March 2000?  Come Thursday, 10 October 2002 that little S&P down hitch had morphed into a Huge Down Hitch of -50.5% across those two and one-half years, (aka “The DotComBomb”).

‘Course, no one knows if such magnitude of “crash” has again begun.  To be sure, high-level warnings of a stock market “drawdown” (a rather gentle way of expressing it) have been put forth over the past week by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and even the “oh hip-hip!” Bank of England.  Either way, we’ll say this:  the selling fear on Friday was nothing like we’ve sensed since 2007 into 2009, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there was “that other even worse” -57.7% plunge (aka “The FinCrisis”).

This time ’round, be it the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash, the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash or the “Look Ma! It’s that Assembled Inaccuracy!” crash, we remain wary of more significant S&P 500 downside, certainly in the near-term offing (a stinging double-entendre, if we may so say).

And despite Gold’s gut-punch, the metal on balance is likely good going forward, albeit levels continue to run extremely high above the smooth valuation line borne of price’s movement vis-à-vis those of the primary BEGOS components (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  To wit, courtesy of the “Reversion to the Mean Dept.” we offer the following two-panel graphic (gleaned from the website).  Gold at left is presently priced better than +300 points above its smooth line, whereas the S&P (futures) at right on Friday alone fully reverted to same, and then some.  To repeat:  yesterday’s session saw the S&P give up a full month of gains since 11 September in a single day!  That’s “fear”, baby:

As for Gold’s weekly bars, here they are.  A fabulous picture … although perhaps worthy of reprising J.E. Levine’s “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A., ’77].  Regardless, from a year ago-to-date, they’re certainly lookin’ GREAT!

Perhaps not so great, indeed running late, is the Economic Barometer.  Of the 16 incoming metrics thus far due in October — given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown” — a mere five have arrived live, including only two this past week.  October’s University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey down-ticked a pip, and August’s change in Consumer Credit moved nary a wit.  So here’s how the Baro now sits:

Yet sitting ever-pretty are the precious metals.  Behold our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  In both cases, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency have been above the key +80% axis for 23 consecutive trading days, (which for those of you scoring at home is longer than a whole month).  However within Friday’s S&P 500 chaos, neither metal even as a safe-haven was able to reattain its prior day’s high.  Remember the FinCrisis’ “Black Swan” during which “everything” initially went well down?  ‘Tis just something of which to be aware:

Too, we’ve the two-panel graphic of the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right).  Per the volume-dominant price labels, Gold sees support at 4006 whilst Silver appears more contained for the moment between 48.40 on the upside and 47.25 on the downside.  Indeed as Silver didn’t fully keep pace with Gold into week’s end, the Gold/Silver ratio rose from the prior Friday’s 81.6x level to now 84.9x:

Toward closing, we’ve not stacked it up since mid-August.  So let’s have a look; note therein for the Stack’s first time that “Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement” is not at present on top, the yellow metal having achieved (as you know if you are regular reader) such Fair Value a week earlier:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  4081 (08 October 2025)
2025’s High:  4081 (08 October 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4081 (from 3793) = +288 points or +7.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  4061 (08 October 2025)
Trading Resistance:  4059
Gold Currently:  4036, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  69 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3952
Trading Support:  notable Profile nodes:  3892 / 3854 / 3844
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3870
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  3548
The 300-Day Moving Average:  3036 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To wrap, does another “Black Monday” await the S&P?  Instead, shall the FinMedia (which typically suffers ratings declines in bear markets) come to the rescue emphasizing “all that money piling up on the sidelines will come back into the market”?  Or in reality:  is it the painful withdrawal of margin?  “Uh-oh…”

Just don’t you get caught with with a hole in your bankroll!  Rather, (hat-tip CDS), ride Gold’s rise above its blow hole!  “WHOA!”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 829 – (04 October 2025) – “Gold Achieves Fair Value”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 829th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Achieves Fair Value“

If for some inexcusably unconscionable reason you missed Tuesday’s Prescient Commentary and/or our entry on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), we herein repeat same for you stragglers:  “Gold at 00:05 GMT this morning reached its Dollar debasement value of 3865”.

Indeed en route to settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 3912, Gold traded to yet another All-Time High at 3923 on Thursday.  As for Sweet Sister Silver, she traded up to her own 14-year high at 48.33 toward closing the week at 47.97, +63.8% net year-to-date and well-outpacing Gold’s nonetheless splendid net gain of +48.2% thus far in 2025.

But the Big Gold Story is — for the first time arithmetically since the week ending on Halloween, 31 October 1980 (price then 642) — Gold has now eclipsed our quintessential valuation of 3867.  ‘Tis thus “fair” to say Gold has finally achieved its Fair Value.

“Which is slightly different than the above Scoreboard’s right-hand graphic, correct mmb?”

Spot-on as ever you are, dear Squire.  The Gold Scoreboard — the long-standing opening hallmark of The Gold Update — depicts that graphic on a dual scale:  one for the StateSide Money Supply (“M2” basis) and one for the price of Gold.  The key point therein is to directionally correlate Gold in concert with M2.  However, let’s now look at Gold relative to its actual Fair Value.

“The difference being, mmb?”

Squire already well knows the difference, but he loves to infuse the occasional dramatic pause.  Price itself (which we measure vis-à-vis its “continuous futures contract” as ’tis far and away the most liquid medium for trading Gold) is simply that:  the price of Gold (plus an essentially immaterial amount of eroding premium, currently +0.7% basis December’s expiry).

The Fair Value of Gold however, is a different, more salient and leading measure as to where price “ought be”.  The calculation from the M2 starting point as just noted (31 October ’80, thank you Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), is then routinely revised to account for the increase in M2 (basically the de facto liquid measure of the world’s reserve currency) as further adjusted for the increase in the supply of Gold itself.  For the more there is of something, the less ’tis worth.  And Gold tonnage since back in 1980 has increased by some 2.3x effectively detracting from value.

Regardless of the increasing supply of the yellow metal, M2 today is +1,293% of what ’twas back in 1980 and thus is the primary debasing driver of Gold.  So putting it all together, we same-scale chart both Gold and its Fair Value — et voilà — we’re finally there!  ‘Tis a crossing sight to behold:

‘Course as shown in the graphic, the last time Gold nearly achieved Fair Value was back in September of 2011, price then embarking on a worse than -47% slide into December 2015.  (You long-time readers may recall our writing of Gold as having “gotten ahead of itself”).  And no, this time ’round we don’t perceive a repeat of such decline.

In fact, present Gold hype abounds!  (One wonders where “they” have been for so many of these past years).  Moreover, it suddenly seems that everyone’s become a Gold expert.  “Oh, it’s the debt!” they say.  “Oh, it’s Trump!” they say.  “Oh, it’s global conflict!” they say.  Far be it from us to stand in the way of what “they” say.  But at the end of the day, ’tis currency erosion by which Gold makes hay.

Further, Gold being a very liquid market — which as do all liquid markets — trends upward, downward and sideways.  Too, from the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.”, every form of Gold bought is sold to that buyer by the seller at the agreed-upon price.  And price can become quite excessively extended to the upside as is Gold’s current case, irrespective of what “they” say.  For example, by deMeadville’s “textbook technicals” (a cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics), Gold is now 25 consecutive trading days “overbought.”

“Well, mmb, that probably won’t be on CNBS…”

Squire, likely neither on Bloomy nor FoxyB.  Certainly our next proprietary graphic is not FinMedia made for all to see:

From the website, the smooth line in the above upper panel is our near-term valuation for Gold (3621) based on price’s movement relative to those that comprise the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  And as we always remind, price inevitably reverts to its smooth valuation line, even as it too rises and falls.  The present difference per the lower panel oscillator shows price as +291 points “high” above valuation.

As well, you may have sensed the edginess on Gold’s sellside.  This past Tuesday within a four-hour period, Gold fell -79 points, only to regain it all and then some; but again on Thursday within three hours came a drop of -81 points.  The hysteria may be (as it continues to be for the S&P) that Gold is poised to go (using technical terminology) “rip-snort, el gonzo, upside nutz”.  Not that it shan’t, but there’s a lot of attractive Gold trading profit for the taking these days.  As certainly so there is for the S&P 500 as we go to the Economic Barometer:

The Baro was due to take in 13 metrics this past week … but just six (privately-generated) made the trip whilst the publicly-generated balance of seven offered zip.  Of those six reports, August’s Pending Home Sales and September’s Institute for Supply Management Index improved period-over-period; but worse were ADP’s negative Employment data, the ISM Services Index, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, all for September.

So:  are you confident?  As has been bandied about Wall Street over the years, when the government is out of the way, the markets positively play.  Thus far for the three trading days of “no-budget” October, the S&P has risen by as much as +0.9%, indeed closing for the first time above 6700 on Wednesday, and again so on both Thursday and Friday.  Cue “Do the Wall Street shuffle…” –[10cc, ’74].

‘Course, not so much shuffling upward as streaking higher has been Gold.  Here next we’ve the yellow metal’s two-panel graphic of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Achieving Fair Value is a beautiful thAng:

The white metal’s like graphic says it all:  Silver these past three months (below left) has been comprehensively adorned in her precious metal pinstripes (as opposed to her industrial metal jacket).  But by her Profile (below right), the 46.40-45.15 swath is quite light on volume, such that should Gold begin to correct as we expect, Silver swiftly would fall back through that zone with an eye to then trying to hold 44.15 as labeled:

To close, we were reminded this past week of a conservation away back in the days of AvidTrader, wherein by completely mindless (let alone official) observations, ’twas determined that the mighty Goldman Sachs was correct on its various outlooks a double-digit percentage of the time … that being 50%.

Now more than two decades later, we similarly query:  “Is Goldman Sachs capable of making up its mind?”  To wit, this courtesy of “The Right Hand Doesn’t Know What the Left Hand Is Doing Dept.”

  • Hat-tip Bloomy from this past Monday:  “Goldman Strategists Turn Bullish on Stocks as Recession Risk Low”

  • Hat-tip CNBC(S) from Friday:  “Goldman Boss David Solomon warns investors of a stock market drawdown”

Some things never change.  Yet we think ’tis The Boss who’s wiser.  Especially given the S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio having just settled the week at an inane 48.6x.  “Have we crashed yet?”

 Either way, don’t forget who truly is the boss:  Gold!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 828 – (27 September 2025) – “Gold Furthers Record Ticks; Silver Snags 46!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 828th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 27 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Furthers Record Ticks; Silver Snags 46!“

With so much to expend into month n’ quarter end, on to that we’ve prodigiously penned!

And straight out of the chute we start with our year-to-date BEGOS Markets Standings, the sweetest component of them all again topping the stack:  Sister Silver!  You tell ’em, Jackie:

No, thy eyes do not thee deceive:  Silver year-to-date is +58.3% in settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 46.37, yet remains short of her all-time high.  For as noted in last week’s piece:  “Silver’s all-time intraday high is 49.82 from 25 April 2011.”  Still, the Metals Triumvirate continues to dominate the Standings’ Top Three podium positions.

So as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars — price settling the week at 3790 — note at the foot of the following graphic the Gold/Silver ratio now down to 81.7x — which by that ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.3x means that relative to the yellow metal, the white metal still remains cheap!

‘Course, let us duly acknowledge that Gold is significantly upside-stretched at present, indeed scoring another All-Time High this past Tuesday at 3825 on approach to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3865.  To be sure by the website’s BEGOS valuation for Gold, price per the next graphic shows as +243 points “high”, and inevitably shall revert to the smooth grey line, even as it also is rising:

Thus with Silver in mind, upon Gold’s decline, the white metal — again still cheap relative to the yellow metal — shall as well unwind.

“So yer thinkin’ prices are gonna drop, eh mmb?”

As Squire well knows, Gold and Silver — indeed all of the BEGOS markets — are very liquid.  As such they all from period-to-period engage in one of three possible trends:  up, sideways, or down.  Too, with the FinMedia having of late actually giving notice to Gold, precious metals reports these days are richly ripe with hype.  Moreover, recall what happened the last time Gold graphically caught up to its Dollar debasement value (again see the the righthand panel of the opening Scoreboard):  price went from its then All-Time High of 1923 (06 September 2011) down to 1045 (03 December 2015), a better than four-year decline of -47.7%.

Are we expecting same again?  Hardly, albeit “Never Say Never Again” –[Taliafilm, Warner/Columbia-EMI, ’83].  But Gold’s reverting to its BEGOS valuation in the 3500s wouldn’t be a wit untoward, and (not to drag you too deeply into the technical weeds) there was structural support recorded this past April/May that lasted through August in the 3586 to 3208 range, the midpoint of which is 3397 … and structural midpoints are oft keenly eyed by those on the dip-buying side … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Speaking of scoring, the precious metals equites have been putting on a clinic!  For many-a-year we hear ’tis axiomatic that the equities outpace the yellow metal itself.  ‘Course we’ve seen as well that one both lives … and dies … by the equities’ leverage.  Yet from a year ago-to-date, the equities are livin’ large versus the Gold price.  Here are the percentage tracks from least-to-most for the whole gang featuring Gold itself +41%, Newmont (NEM) +53%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +70%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +73%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +80%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +90%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +95%.  Behold the beauty:

Comparatively, the ludicrously-overvalued, earnings-lacking Casino 500 is +16% across the same stint.  Oh yes, Gold is a bit over-extended near-term:  but at least ’tis properly priced in the area of its Dollar debasement value, whereas the S&P is priced at a whacky 48.4x earnings.  (Note:  “AI” [“Assembled Inaccuracy”] puts it at 25.9x; however, when we’ve fed “AI” the precise price/earnings formula — which we’ve herein on occasion posted — ’tis unable to perform the math.  Is your financial manager using “AI“?  Oh well).

Doing well of late is the Economic Barometer, sufficiently so that it brings into question the Federal Open Market Committee voting come 29 October to again reduce The Bank’s Funds rate.  And when the final revision to Q2 Gross Domestic Product was released this past Thursday, it put by that reasoning quite a sudden scare into the S&P, the futures sporting their second-worst 60-minute drop to that point of the week.  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, quarterly GDP is thrice reported, the final revision rarely of substantive change.  But this time, for Q2 annualized, it leapt from the second estimate of +3.3% to +3.8%, the biggest final upward revision since that for Q1 away back in 2015!  So suddenly, life is good!  Here’s the Baro, for which seven of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics improved over the prior period:

Along with the GDP surprise came the most anticipated data of the week, that comprising the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation as Personal Consumption Expenditures for August.  The “headline” number cooled from July’s +0.3% to +0.2% … but the more scruntinized “core” number heated from +0.2% to +0.3%.  All-in-all per our August 2025 Inflation Summary table, the 12-month summation’s average of +2.8% is still above the Fed’s desired +2.0% target, whilst that for August alone is spot on at +2.0%.  But the Fed having just cut can make those paces turn up:

Thus from “The Rising Tide of Inflation Lifts All Boats Dept.” we go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets, their respective grey trendlines ascending in each case:

“But the ‘Baby Blues’ are weaking for some of them, mmb…”

Squire understands trend consistency as measured by our baby blue dots, which (save for Oil) are rolling over to one degree or another.  In other words, the trends remain up, but as such are weakening, noticeably so for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, to an extent Copper, and just perhaps beginning for the S&P 500.

As for the precious metals, they remain nothing short of amazing by their 10-Market Profiles as shown next for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  The most volume-dominant price support and Market Magnet (per the website) for the yellow metal are 3719 and 3744, whilst respectively for the white metal they are 44.15 and 43.78 with Silver looking ever so great of late!

And to exemplify Gold’s latest All-Time High, we’ve the 16-year chart of price’s structure by the month from 2010 now well into 2025, impressively exceeding our year’s forecast 3262 high.  Or to reprise the late, great, StateSide sportscaster Dick Enberg:  “Oh my!!”:

We started with Silver; let’s close with same.  The last time the Gold/Silver ratio was below its century-to-date average was well into the midst of COVID on 18 May 2021, (the white metal then priced at 28.29).  If anyone cares to comb back through the 227 missives penned since then to count how many times we’ve written “Don’t forget the Silver!”, do drop us a line.  In the meantime…

…keep towing the precious metals line!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 827 – (20 September 2025) – “Gold n’ S&P Highs for All to See!”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 827th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 20 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold n’ S&P Highs for All to See!“

For a month which through the last dozen years hardly has been happy for Gold — and certainly century-to-date dreadful for the S&P 500 — let’s hear it here in this September of 2025 for All-Time Highs all ’round!  Whee-Heee!

Through the 14 trading days of this September-to-date, Gold has posted record highs in eight, toward settling yesterday (Friday) at an All-Time Weekly Closing High of 3719, the year-to-date gain now +40.9%.  Too for the S&P, albeit not always on the same day, there’ve also been eight days of record highs, the mighty Index settling the week at 6664, both a record daily and weekly close, the year-to-date performance now +13.3%.

Reprise from The Great Depression “The Dance of the Dollars” as crooned by the inimitable Ginger Rogers: “We’re in the money, We’re in the money…” –[Warner Bros., “Gold Diggers of 1933”].

Or as we’ve in more recent years occasionally quipped:  “Marked to market, everybody’s a millionaire; marked to reality, nobody’s worth squat.”

“So mmb, obviously the S&P hasn’t crashed yet, right?”

Rather, it has what we call “up-crashed”.  Squire is referring of course to last Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update per its title “Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)“  For in spirit with the Federal Open Market Committee having voted nearly unanimously this past Wednesday to lower The Bank’s Funds Rate by our anticipated -0.25% — (an event “priced-in” a few billion times) — the S&P 500 posted a +1.2% weekly rise, as did Gold gain +1.1%.  But specific to the S&P, how’s that price/earnings ratio of 48.4x workin’ out for ya?

But let’s instead turn the tables on Squire and ask him a question:

You have today $100,000 to invest for one year, and (excluding Gold), which of the following two options’ results would you select?

  • Option 1:  in a year’s time your $100,000 investment shall additionally have garnered $3,610 in yield such that you’ll then have $103,610;

  • Option 2:  in a year’s time your $100,000 investment shall additionally have garnered $1,171 in yield such that you’ll then have something in the range of $83,000 to $119,000.  Squire?

“Option 1, mmb, which is the one-year T-bill, ’cause Option 2 is the too much crazily-overvalued S&P.”

Smart boy is our Squire.  (For those of you scoring at home, Option 2’s $83k – $119k range includes the wee yield and is one standard deviation both above and below the S&P’s annual average percentage change through this century’s 24 completed years).

‘Course, given the perilously overvalued S&P today — similar to that just preceding the DotComBomb — a like fall of more than -50% in the S&P would instead place the low end of Option 2’s range just under $50k.

Further into a deep numerical dive, you may have seen last evening’s release by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the Commitments Of Traders for the S&P 500 futures:  ’tis net Short -225,100 positions, the most since that which preceded last year’s S&P demise from March into April.  Either way, have a nice day.

But to get on with good old Gold, century-to-date ’tis now +1,259%.  ‘Course the nattering nabobs of Gold negativism are always quick to point out that Gold has no yield.  We simply let them instead be happy with their S&P 500’s approximately +550% gain including yield across the same stint.

Now with respect to our opening Gold Scoreboard, price (3719) has been racing up toward the Dollar debasement value of 3866.  However, per the aforementioned FedFunds interest rate cut, that ought raise the debasement bar higher still as dough more affordably flows out through the Fed window.  Indeed this past week, the StateSide “M2” money supply reached its own all-time high of $22.207T.  That of course “supports” (not) the current S&P 500 market capitalization of $58.800T.  (Have we made mention in the past of the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash?)

Still, as glorious as has been Gold’s recent run, might it be (only temporarily) done?  Per the following website graphic of Gold’s value vis-à-vis its movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500), price today at 3719 is +241 points “high” above its smooth valuation line at 3479, (levels rounded to nearest whole number).  Across the graphic (excluding this most recent excursion), when price’s deviation has been at least this “high” by the lower panel’s oscillator, Gold within 21 trading days (one month) has declined by an average -6.1% (which from here would be -227 points into revisiting the upper 3400s).  All that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”:

Notwithstanding some wariness to potential near-term pullback, in turning to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, price has now recorded a fourth consecutive “higher high”.  ‘Course, hardly is that a record.  Twice this century Gold has recorded 11 weekly “higher highs” from late August into November of 2007 and again from early August into mid-October of 2010.  But we shan’t say “no” to now four-in-a-row:

Meanwhile, struggling to make any gains-in-a-row is the Econ Baro.  Specific to this past week’s streak of 14 incoming metrics:  four improved period-over-period (notably September’s Philly Fed Index and August’s “ex-auto” Retail Sales), five maintained their prior pace or level, and five were worse (notably September’s NY State Empire Index, plus August’s Housing/Permits data, along with everyone’s favourite lagging indicator of The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators).

Thus was the Fed’s rate cut bang on time?  Or shall next Friday’s release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures suggest the FOMC “pause” next time?  Regardless, scarcely does the Economic Barometer appear to be in its prime despite an S&P oh so sublime:

To be sure, Gold’s past five week’s have been nothing less than marvelous.  But as we next turn to our two panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, the rolling over of the “Baby Blues” are the early hint of this latest uptrend nearing its end, with the labeled 3683 as volume-dominant support:

As for Silver, the settle yesterday at 43.37 was her highest daily close since 22 August 2011 as well as her highest weekly close since that ending 25 April 2011; (Silver’s all-time intraday high is 49.82 from 25 April 2011).  Here as well are her “Baby Blues” (at left) and Profile (at right).  More broadly, the Gold/Silver ratio presently 85.8x maintains more upside in due course for Sister Silver:

Monday at 18:19 GMT brings 2025’s autumnal equinox, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there you call “the first day of fall”).  Query:  Shall “fall” arrive as a double entendre at Broad and Wall?  For the S&P has gone far beyond any dutiful call…

But you can stay secure with Gold through it all!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 826 – (13 September 2025) – “Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 826th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)“

Yes, Gold this past Tuesday by its “continuous contract” (for which the “front month” is December) touched 3700 — trading even further to a fresh All-Time High at 3715.

No, Gold wasn’t long-lived above 3700; however for 38 glorious Golden minutes ’twas a beautiful thAng.  Price then proceeded through the balance of the week to settle per the above Gold Scoreboard at 3681, now just -183 points beneath the Dollar debasement value of 3864.  And as detailed in last week’s missive, upon next eclipsing such key measure — regardless of when that may be — we’ll again judiciously reiterate (after 14 years) that Gold has “gotten ahead of itself”.  Do mind the above right-hand panel.  And whilst it has not yet happened, ’tis nonetheless fabulous to see Gold having almost caught all the way up to where it ought be brought, (so hopefully you’ve long ago bought).

More striking however is that across the past 242 trading days from last 26 September-to-date, Gold has achieved TEN +100-level milestones from 2700 to now 3700, (which for those of you scoring at home is a +37% increase in less than one year).  By comparison, remember when it took 2,251 consecutive trading days (basically nine years) for Gold to just get from 1900 on 22 August 2011 those +100 points higher to 2000 on 21 July 2020?  2,251 trading days just to gain +100 points!  But this most recent milestone run has averaged +100 points every 24 trading days!  Here’s the table:

“Although, mmb, the percentage increase from one to the next is always decreasing…”

Squire remains one of the few modern-day market mavens who does math.  And to be sure, from Gold 1900 to 2000 was a +5.3% increase, whereas this most recent 3600 to 3700 was just a +2.8% increase.

But let’s view it from the futures contract perspective, whereby with a $20k commodity account you can trade one Gold contract, and thus control 100 ounces of Gold; (as opposed to $20k covering only five physical ounces; which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is — by the futures — called “leverage”).

So:  Gold back then from 1900 to 2000 was a +100-point gain x $100/point = $10k profit, (your $20k account thus becoming $30k, or +50%) … but again, that took those noted nine years.  Now, in just less than one year, Gold has gone from 2700 to 3700, a +1,000-point gain x $100/point = $100k profit, (your $20k account instead becoming $120k, or +500%).

Therefore to Squire’s point, yes each successive +100-point milestone is a smaller percentage gain … but they’ve been coming far more rapidly, indeed perhaps too rapidly.  Here we update from the website our Market Value measure for Gold, price (3681) now showing as +260 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (3421) defined by the movement of our primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  And as we always say, price inevitably reverts to valuation:

As for Gold by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, the following blue-dotted Long stint is now eight weeks in duration with present price (3681) an admirable +423 points above the ensuing week’s “flip to Short” level (3258).  Gold’s EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) has narrowed a tad to 120 points, albeit that’s still some three weeks of cushion — barring a hard price fall — even with price (as just above noted) being fairly high above its BEGOS Markets valuation:

‘Course, having endlessly lost all sense of reasonable valuation is the S&P 500.

“Well, the Fed’s cutting rates beginning this Wednesday, mmb…”

Oh good grief, dear Squire.  How many times over how many weeks have the FinMedia reported time-and-again that the purported Federal Reserve’s Funds rate reduction has been “priced-in”?  ‘Tis been but 15 trading days since FedChair Powell in Wyoming suggested the possibility of a monetary policy shift, it thus  being FinMedia-deemed that a rate cut is “priced-in” for the S&P.  After which ’twas later “priced-in”, and then again “priced-in”.

Query:  how many times must the same event be “priced-in”?  We’re just asking, given the S&P 500 is recording all-time highs seemingly day-after-day, indeed for seven of the days since The Chairman’s address.

Yes, the StateSide job market has stalled as herein sliced and diced a week ago.  And despite August’s just-reported Consumer Price Index having doubled from its July pace of +0.2% to now +0.4% (remember we said the July spike in the Producer Price Index could well feed into August’s CPI), apparently such increasing inflation is ignorable and is also “priced-in”.  So by logic (a concept no longer useful in this Investing Age of Stoopid), are unsupportive earnings (the price/earnings ratio of the S&P now a staggeringly high 46.7x), plus perhaps stagflation, and now a re-stumbling StateSide economy also all “priced-in”?  Moreover:  at what point for equities chasers shall FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) morph into FONBO (“Fear Of Not Being Out”)?  What might the traditionally market-leading (until COVID) Economic Barometer urgently now trying to tell us?

Too, (not that we need be reminded), ’tis September, the historical results for which make it far and away the S&P’s worst losing month so far this century, (as we’ve previously cited, -32.3% when aggregating the prior 24 Septembers).  However:  that compiled, outright “crashes” have been instead typically owned by October, notably the hollowing-out of equities in the Garzarelli Cavatelli of ’87, the awkward Asian Contagion of ’97, and frighteningly so the FinCrisis of ’08.  Thus by this missive’s parenthetical portion of its title, next time ’round — whether ’tis the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash or the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash — we remain very sensitive to its eventual arrival (be it this month, next month, next year), such that ahead of said crash Gold’s been getting the cash.

Clearly appears ’tis the case as we next view the two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left, with those for Silver on the right.  Regular readers well know the baby blue dots  that depict the day-to-day consistency of the regression trend, and as you can see, the “Baby Blues” are our directional friend.  As for Silver’s rightmost high? 43 if you please!

And as continues that case of late, highs keep present prices in the 10-day Market Profiles as … well … high.  Below (at left) is that for Gold and (at right) for Silver.  With respect to the latter, 43 is great to see:  but were Silver priced to Gold by their ratio’s average century-to-date (69.3x vs. 86.2x today), rather than 43, Silver would now be 53!  Whee-Heee!

Thus into Fed week we go, the Open Market Committee expected to release their Policy Statement incorporating a rate cut (we see -25bp) come Wednesday at 18:00 GMT; the pop in August retail inflation is too much to warrant a “jumbo” rate cut of -50bp.  So does that in turn send the S&P 500 on a selling spree?  J.P. Morgan opines there may so be. For the S&P now being “priced to perfection”, ’tis all indeed “priced-in”, you see?

Pssst:  “Got Gold?”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 825 – (06 September 2025) – “Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 825th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 06 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?“

Today is 06 September 2025.  Do you recall up to where Gold traded on this very date 14 years ago?

“On this day in 2011 price reached an all-time high of 1923, right mmb?”

Precisely so, Squire, yet then for nearly nine years ’twas never higher.  Rather, from that landmark day’s All-Time High of 1923, Gold embarked on an almost -46% correction to as low as 1045 on 03 December 2015, before fully recovering through the ensuing four and one-half years to reach 1942 on 27 July 2020 whilst COVID cloaked the globe.

And long-time readers may recall ’twas shortly after 06 September 2011 — indeed on 01 October 2011 in the 98th Edition of The Gold Update — we wrote that Gold had gotten “ahead of itself”.  As above shown in the righthand panel of the Gold Scoreboard, the price of Gold as graphed was exceeding the track of the green “M2” money supply line.

Now fast forward to today’s title, we query same:  “Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?”  The answer is (a little drumroll please…):  

No.  But:  ’tis not far from so doing!  Again per the Scoreboard, Gold settled its week yesterday (Friday) at 3640, an All-Time Closing High, recording en route an All-Time Intraday High of 3656.  And the current Dollar debasement value for Gold — even in duly adjusting for its own supply increase — is 3864.  That’s just +224 points (+6.2%) higher than here.  So given that Gold’s current EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) is presently 124 points, come September’s end, Gold truly may have again gotten ahead of itself.  ‘Tis not a prediction, but well worth minding.

Too, by our Market Value graphic for Gold (wherein price’s movement is measured vis-à-vis those of the other primary markets which comprise BEGOS (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500), the yellow metal shows as currently +253 points “high” above valuation to which it always reverts (be it up or down) … just in case you’re scoring at home:

 

“But mmb, are you getting bearish then on Gold?”

Oh heavens no, dear Squire.  We’re merely sensitive to the fact that markets don’t move in a straight line, (save, ‘twould seem, for the ever-higher S&P 500).  As noted and per the above oscillator, price always reverts to the BEGOS valuation, which itself too (albeit more ponderously) rises and falls.

Meanwhile making the rounds in the midst of it all is a Goldman Sachs call (should the Fed fall) for Gold 5000.  We read the FinTimes piece of GS’ warning over “Trump political this” and “lost confidence that”.  But despite the mention of inflation, hardly was the key driver of Gold’s value directly stated:  again, (for you WestPalmBeachers down there) ’tis Dollar debasement.

So typically as is our wont, we did the math.  And to the nearest trillion, were the Federal Reserve to add another $6T to the StateSide money supply, ‘twould “equate” to valuing Gold at 5000.  Albeit, you’ll recall the $7T accommodation for COVID instead benefitted the S&P 500 rather than Gold.  Which is why the S&P to this day remains so dangerously overvalued:  “How’s that 45.3x price/earnings ratio workin’ out for ya?”  Cue Nat King Cole in parody from ’51: “Unsustainable…”.

Certainly sustaining its weekly Long trends is Gold as we turn to those bars from one year ago-to-date.  Our wee friend therein points toward present price being high above the dashed linear trendline; however the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now seven weeks in duration offers 421 points of safe space between here (3640) and there (3219).  Note too how our forecast high for this year (3262) is providing support at its green line.  All-in-all, quite the bullish picture to this point:

More broadly, here we’ve daily Gold from our opening discourse about price having gotten ahead of itself away back there in 2011.  Came the aforementioned correction, followed by years of battling ad nauseum in and about “The Box” (1240-1280, remember that?)  Yet now in retrospect, we surely can say “You’ve come a long way, baby!”

More recently, the Economic Barometer had been making its own way back up … until this past week having gone bottoms-up.  Of the 13 incoming metrics, just five improved period-over-period, notably so for August both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management.  Too, Productivity for Q2 was revised sharply higher from the initial +2.4% read to +3.3% … and you know what that means:  less jobs!

Thus barring inflation having spiked (as shall be determined in the new week), here comes the 17 September Fed cut, because for August, both ADP’S Employment and Labor’s Payrolls data were poor.  ADP reported job creation of less than 100k for the fifth time in the past seven months, prior to which such benchmark had not been missed since September 2023.  And Labor missed the 100k mark for the third consecutive month.  ‘Twill be interesting to see if the leading pace of July’s very  inflationary  Producer Price Index (+0.9%) feeds into that for August’s Consumer Price Index come Thursday.  Stay tuned…

Too, we must acknowledge the S&P 500 yesterday having reached another record high (6533), before taking a -51-point drubbing into the close (6482).  We see a wary September wearing on, so much so that we made this “X” remark (@deMeadvillePro) earlier in the week prior to yesterday’s still higher high:

“The S&P 500 ‘September Storm’ (per The Gold Update) is beginning.  How low do we go?

  • High: (28 August) 6508
  • Gap fill (08 May): 5720 (-12%)
  • Golden Ratio (high to 07 April low): 5474 (-16%)
  • 07 April low re-test: 4835 (-26%)
  • Current P/E:  44.1x”

    • As for record-setting Gold, here next we’ve our classic two-panel display of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Gold may be getting a tad stretched, but the baby blue dots of day-to-day trend consistency are nicely on the up move.

    Too for Silver, here’s the like graphic.  Her new-found 40s held through the entire week as she traded from as low as 40.56 to as high as 42.29.  The “Baby Blues’ (below left) are getting a bit of a boost, whilst by her Profile (below right) 41.60 shows as the most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight.  “Way to go, Sister Silver!”

    So to close for you, how stormy is becoming the September view?

    Even if ahead of itself, ‘tis best to keep Gold in your investment queue!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 824 – (30 August 2025) – “Gold Lookin’ Sporty; Silver Lovin’ Forty!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 824th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 30 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Lookin’ Sporty; Silver Lovin’ Forty!“

    Absolutely we must start with Sweet Sister Silver.  By her “continuous contract” (the front month for which is now December), she attained $40/oz. yesterday for the first time since (deep breath!) 21 September 2011; (for you math-challenged WestPalmBeachers down there, that is essentially 14 years ago).  “Brava, Brava, Sista Silva!!”

    ‘Tis been long overdue, and yet Silver still remains “La Cheapa”.  In settling out the week and August yesterday (Friday) at 40.75, the Gold/Silver ratio now at 86.3x nonetheless remains excessively above the century-to-date average of 69.3x.  Thus as fabulous as ’tis to see Silver lovin’ $40/oz., were she priced today at that ratio’s average, she’d instead be +25% higher at $50/oz., (indeed at 50.76 for those of you scoring at home).

    As for good old Gold, price settled the week lookin’ sporty at 3516, which too by its “continuous contract” (also now December) is another All-Time Closing High on both a daily and weekly basis; however the All-Time Intraday High remains 3431 from three weeks prior on 08 August.  But “sluggish seasonality” aside, we’ll take it.  Here are Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend nicely in place with price itself sitting upon the dashed regression trendline:

     

    And whilst September is the worst month of the year for S&P 500, (as herein penned a week ago that “…through the 24 Septembers century-to-date, that month’s cumulative S&P change is -32.3%…”), ’tis been for Gold on balance a decent month, its past 24 Septembers netting an all-in gain of +7.2%.  Too, by current conventional wisdom, Gold stands to benefit from this next 17 September Federal Open Market Committee vote to cut the FundsRate by -0.25%.  But:  ought they so do?  Let’s go to our completed StateSide inflation summary table for July, bearing in mind that red backgrounds are in excess of the Fed’s inflation target of 2%…

    …and “Uh-oh, say it ain’t so…” every measure now is backed in red.  ‘Course that can be resolved with a rate hike … else exacerbated with a rate cut.  Plus for August, both wholesale and retail inflation data shall be reported the week prior to the FOMC’s Policy Statement.  Either way, if next week brings poor data for August’s payrolls, that shall be cut-friendly.

    “But mmb, if jobs go down and inflation goes up, then what?”

    ‘Twould be ever so stagflative, dear Squire, such that the Fed may have to simply sit on its hands in being “…attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate…”  Not great.  Add in the ongoing, ridiculous overvaluation of the S&P 500, and September may not be a very happy month, (unless one holds Gold).

    Indeed as we next turn to our year-to-date standings of the BEGOS Markets, the Metals Triumvirate continues to own the podium, with Silver (as we’ve herein anticipated) rightly topping the stack in regaining $40/oz. by her rallying comeback:

    Therein we also see the severely-stretched S&P 500 up +9.8% to this point, but actually underperforming the full percentage changes of the prior two years.  And now with September in the balance, ‘twouldn’t be untoward by year-end to find the S&P in the red (see later our closing graphic).

    Yet in looking at the BEGOS bunch across the past 21 trading days (one month), let’s go ’round the horn by their respective daily bars, grey trendlines and “Baby Blues”, the dots which depict each trend’s day-to-day consistency.  And specific to the Bond, yesterday was its worst net daily change since 15 August, that day having been a week prior to non-committal FedChair Powell in Jackson Hole.  So, are the “Bond Ghouls” (hat-tip the late Louis Rukeyser) thinking the Fed may not cut come 17 September?  That would not make for a happy head of The Executive Branch in Washington: 

    However on a happier note, let’s go to Gold’s percentage track from one year ago-to-date along with our usual top-tier precious metals equities.  And from “worst-to-first” — the leverage of the equities over Gold really now standing out — they rank as:  Gold itself +38%, Newmont (NEM) +41%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +51%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +60%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +61%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +72%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%.  Cue Steve Miller from back in ’76: “Fly Like an Eagle”:

    Next let’s zoom in on the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and our star player Sister Silver on the right, the respective white bars being yesterday’s settles.  To borrow from a 1913 newspaper advertisement for Ohio’s Piqua Auto Supply House, “One look is worth a thousand words“.  Thus in this case, nothing else need be said:

    Too, words are challenging by which to come as we turn to Gold’s Structure per the monthly bars since 2010.  But unlike the S&P 500 — which for month-after-month has been valued pathetically beyond perfection despite unsupportive earnings — Gold remains priced (per our opening Scoreboard) at a discount to Dollar debasement.  Got Gold?

    For this week’s missive we’ve saved the Economic Barometer toward the end as it segues well with what we’re perceiving as the perfect September storm.  As aforementioned, across the past 24 years the S&P 500’s cumulative percentage changes for September come to -32.3%; moreover from the “7/11 Dept.”, seven of the past 11 Septembers have finished in the red.  And what if en rout the Fed does not budge on 17 September?

    Again, August job creation (or lack thereof) works in the Fed’s cutting favour.  And the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for the month just came in as quite sour, down from July’s 47.1 — and missing by a mile the consensus for 46.0 — at 41.5.  Yet on the other hand, (hat-tip Bloomy), Chicago FedPrez (and FOMC voting member) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee is less concerned about the employment picture than the inflation outlook.  Also, both Personal Income and Spending increased their paces for July.  Further too, of the past week’s 12 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just four were worse period-over-period.  Therefore:  does apparent economic strength warrant cutting the rate?  The perfect September storm indeed:

    Thus into September we go with this friendly graphic reminder:

    Reprised query:  “Do you know where your stops are?”

    Here’s to Gold and Super Stellar Silver!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 823 – (23 August 2025) – “Gold Gains a Little; Dollar Drools Spittle; Powell Non-Committal”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 823rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 23 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Gains a Little; Dollar Drools Spittle; Powell Non-Committal“

    With reference to the above title’s adjective “non-committal”, let’s open with another of our infamous pop quizzes!  Ready?

    In Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address yesterday (Friday) from ever-stunningly magnificent Jackson Hole, how many times did he say either the word “reduce” or “cut”?

    By FinMedia reports, multitudinous times.  Hat-tip NBC News in quoting one independent strategist:

    • “Today’s speech could not be more clear that Powell is ready to cut rates on September 17th…”

    But if you said “Not once!” — that neither “reduce” nor “cut” was mentioned — you are correct!

    Thus, the highlight of the “Nuthin’ but Fed!” week was The Chairman (to invoke an apt double negative) not saying the Open Market Committee would not cut rates.  Still, to his credit, he acknowledged the Fed’s current monetary stance as “modestly restrictive” such that the Eccles Building bunch shall “carefully” proceed to assess if conditions “may warrant” a shift in policy.

    But in which direction? Clearly from the opposite end of the spectrum, the prior week’s report of wholesale inflation via July’s Producer Price Index may well warrant a rate hike, given that month’s annualized +10.8% pace.  (Such fact was deftly skirted in the address, but sorry Jay baby,  somebody has to do the math).

    Regardless, more observed in the offing (double entendre) come the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures’ readings for July (due next Friday, 29 August) followed by August’s PPI (10 September) and (yikes?) Consumer Price Index (11 September).  Then we’ve the FOMC’s Policy Statement (17 September), centered in the month which for the S&P 500 historically is at its worst:  through the 24 Septembers century-to-date, that month’s cumulative S&P change is -32.3%.

    Either way, equities enthusiasts interpreted The Chairman’s remarks as 100% confirmation the Fed will cut its FundsRate on 17 September:  ’tis already a done deal, which in turn elicited the S&P 500 returning up to within two points (at 6479) of its all-time high (6481) in sporting the year’s 12th-best net daily gain (+1.5%). The mighty Index settled its week at 6467, putting the “live” price/earnings ratio at an affordable 45.5x and ever so attractive yield at 1.215%; (yes, for you WestPalmBeachers down there, ’tis italicized cynicism).

    So with the perception, (or perhaps better stated, “hope”) of cheaper StateSide money on the way, the Dollar drooled spittle.  The currency’s concoction called “Dixie” suffered on Friday its 13th-worst single-day high-to-low percentage drop (-1.3%) through the 166 trading sessions year-to-date, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  For when the U.S pays less, elsewhere may be best:  by sovereign rates, within “Dixie”, Canada (4.95%) tops the U.S. (4.50%); or beyond that, for example, there’s Iceland’s Króna (7.50%) if one can absorb a currency-risk profile that is more chilling.

    ‘Course here at deMeadville, we prefer an alternative currency:  Gold … albeit hardly is it robust at present.  For bang on time following last week’s piece “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness”, price just recorded (both by points and percentage) its narrowest trading week of the 34 year-to-date, toward settling at 3417. From low-to-high, Gold’s up week spanned “only” +70 points (+2.1%), netting a change of just half that.  Here ’tis as Gold gains a little:

    Indeed, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains comfortably Long with -241 points of “wiggle room” down to the ensuing week’s “flip-to-Short” level of 3176.  And any further foaming-at-the-mouth by the Dollar’s decline generally works favourably for Gold.  However, we duly point out that price’s daily parabolic trend is now Short as of last Tuesday.

    Yet, have a look at this next measure for assessing the ebb and flow of Gold:  direct from the both the website’s Market Rhythms and Gold pages, we bring you price’s 12-hour MACD (moving average convergence divergence).  With our usual disclaimer that nothing in hindsight works in perpetuity, this Market Rhythm of late has been top-rate.  The 10 most recent crossings (from 30 May-to-date) of the 12-hour MACD have produced — again in hindsight — minimum price follow-throughs of 20+ points either Long or Short, (even as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”).

    But we’ve this cautionary note thereto:  as suggested, the perfection of hindsight calculates exiting at 20 points of gain, for instead if having purely swung from one signal to the next — in turn suffering “give back” — ‘twould have been a consistently losing proposition.  Therefore (yet again):  cash management, as ever, is King.  Still, let’s graphically look at Gold’s 12-hour bars across the past five months:  when the MACD is positive, price is in green, else in red if the MACD is negative, such as to portray a reasonable sense of near-term direction.  At the foot of the graphic is the track of the MACD itself.

    “But hardly is it perfection, mmb, as you say there’s a lot of ‘give back’ in every case…”

    For which we’ve obligingly noted, Squire, per the aforementioned cash management quip.  Market Rhythms can be profitable along the trail, but eventually fail as the trend turns tail.

    And talking of turning tail, the Economic Barometer is appearing a bit pale.  To be sure, Spring’s decline reversed into Summer’s climb.  But since the Baro’s recent peak (31 July), reports have not been as sweet … which ought eventuate into a FedFunds rate cut, barring inflation’s eliciting a stagflative gut-punch.

    Thus far in August, the Econ Baro has taken in 37 metrics, of which only 14 (38%) have improved period-over-period.  So hardly was it a surprise that Thursday’s lagging indicators for July per the Conference Board’s report of “Leading Indicators” came in at -0.1%.  ‘Tis the sixth month in the past seven such measure has been negative … “so someone please fax the Fed and tell them to cut right now!”  Anyhooo, here’s the Baro as the “Dog Days of August” continue:

    Meanwhile, to Gold’s two-panel display we next go featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The Dollar’s end-of-week demise gave Gold some rise, albeit by the track of the baby blue dots depicting regression trend consistency, seasonal sluggishness continues.  The good news is per Gold’s Profile, present price appears well volume-supported:

    With the similar graphic display for Silver, whilst her price track (below left) remains much like that of the yellow metal, Friday’s “Powell Boost” moved the white metal well up into her Profile (below right).  That in turn brought the Gold/Silver ratio down to now 87.9x, its lowest daily reading so far this month.  ‘Course, with the ratio’s century-to-date average at 69.3x, Sister Silver is still a steal relative to Gold.  And as we mused two missives ago, 40.00 Silver is not that far to go from here at 38.80:

    To wrap, ’tis the Stack.

    The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3864
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3534 (08 August 2025)
    2025’s High:  3534 (08 August 2025)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3483 (07 August 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  by the Profile, none of note
    Gold Currently:  3417, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  44 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3417 / 3405 / 3394 / 3383 / 3369
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3394
    10-Session directional range:  down to to 3354 (from 3465) = -111 points or -3.2%
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  3176
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2883 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Next we’ve Summer’s final snoozer week for August … but for the Econ Baro robust?  Or a just a bust?  12 incoming metrics are scheduled including as aforementioned on Friday “The Big One”:  July’s PCE.  What shall it be?  One can wait and see…

    Or garner more Gold if you please!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 822 – (16 August 2025) – “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 822nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 16 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness“

    When we blow it, we’re obliged to show it.  For after last week’s scintillating song and dance about a “Double Shot of that Golden Love”, Gold this past week succumbed as a fallen dove, now further facing a stint of “sluggish seasonality” per the shaded strip in the above graphic encompassing these last four years.

    “Well, don’t beat up on yourself too much, mmb, as you did leave the door open for a down week…”

    And “down” indeed was this past week’s direction, Squire, Gold settling yesterday (Friday) at 3382, price sporting just its 11th lower week of the 33 year-to-date, and therein the fifth worst of those 11 downers by both percentage (-2.2%) and points (-77).  But to Squire’s observance, let’s update our cautionary graphic from a week ago of John Bollinger’s Bands on Gold by the day since April.  This is the original graphic then presented, onto which we’ve added the past week’s five trading days:

    You’ll recall a week ago our opining that — despite Gold having pierced the upper band — that this time price would break even more to the upside (the “?”) rather than decline (the “!”) as otherwise has been its wont as you can see per the prior “white lines” following such upside piercings.  So technically the upper band as a barrier again prevailed, as did fundamentally the 180° reversal on the initial Swiss Gold “Trump Tariff!”  price spike.  Note too in the graphic that Gold’s recently new daily parabolic Long trend (the rightmost blue dots below price) appears to be nearing its end.

    Fortunately as we turn to Gold’s bars from a year ago-to-date, the blue-dotted weekly parabolic Long trend is still easily in force, price today at 3382 substantially above the “flip-to-Short” level for the coming week of 3162, albeit as entitled, “sluggish seasonality” may be ensuing:

     

    Indeed as highlighted by the shaded band in our opening Gold Scoreboard, we are entering what through the years has been a period of “sluggish seasonality” for Gold:  century-to-date, the median net change for Gold across these next three calendar weeks has been 2% either way.  ‘Tis that time of year when the so-called “Dog Days of August” remind us from mid-month onward that vacations still linger ahead of the markets’ September hand-wringer.  For even as the “Casino 500” (its “live” price/earnings ratio now 46.3x) ascends ever further up into the Stoopid Zone, the amount of money requisite today to move the mighty S&P one point is but 50% of that just two months ago on 16 June.

    ‘Course, that won’t be on CNBS, but we are very wary of just how thin (emboldened) markets have become, which adds of course to the case for a massive “correction” (mildly put) come the fall (double entendre).  Query:  do you know where your equities’ stops are?

    “But Q2 Earnings Season just finished and it was pretty good, eh mmb?”

    Squire, ’twas fairly ok.  As usual, the FinMedia fawned all over the beating of estimates (marketing tool) rather than comparatively assessing results vis-à-vis the prior year’s like quarter (your investment).

    Specific to the S&P 500, 79% of the 435 reporting constituents exceeded analysts’ estimates, the largest percentage since Q2 of 2024.  As to the far more important reality of companies actually having made more money for shareholders, such ignored stat of 67% so did:  that’s one pip above the 66% average for such year-over-year quarterly improvement across the past nine years.  Here’s our chart by the quarter since 2017 for the percentage of reports beating estimates versus actually improving, (the dashed green line being the evolving average thereto):

    And thus speaking of stocks, let’s straightaway segue to the Economic Barometer along with the S&P 500 (red line) from a year ago-to-date.  The S&P seemingly is making new highs by the day (regardless of constituents’ earnings support, and often the lack thereof), whilst the Econ Baro after its recent up binge is suddenly suffering a bit of a twinge.  The Baro took in 15 metrics this past week … of which only five bettered their prior period.  Thus from the “Math Dept.”  it stands to reason that rising stock prices + frail metric improvements = higher price/earnings ratios (meaning for those of you scoring at home that ’tis difficult for economically-challenged earnings to keep pace with higher stock prices).  ‘Course in this Investing Age of Stoopid, nobody cares (yet). Have a nice day:

    Moreover, therein came came the “Whopper of the Week“:  per the above graphic, wholesale inflation for July as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index roared in at +0.9% for both the headline and core readings, in turning bringing the headline 12-month summation to +2.9%, that for the core to +3.3%, and both annualized strictly by July to (deep breath…) +10.8%!  As penned Friday in the website’s Prescient  commentary:  “…July’s very inflationary PPI ought make it clear for no rate cut perhaps through the balance of this year…”  (Sorry Michelle).

    Yet notwithstanding the BLS arguably losing data credibility, the Federal Reserve leans more toward the Bureau of Economic Statistics for its Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation read:  ’tis due 29 August.  Then the next Open Market Committee Policy Statement comes 17 September, even after the BLS inflation data for August.  But if the data again is hot, do they … (don’t say it) … raise?  ‘Twould be marvy timing to match with a September S&P crash.  On verra…  Reprise:  do you know where your equities’ stops are?

    We know where our “Baby Blues” are for the precious metals:  they’re out of puff.  To our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left for Gold and on the right for Silver.  The baby blue dots reflect regression trend consistency, for which neither metal presently is positive, nor are the respective structures of their rightmost bars:

    Then too we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right).  Although the price of Gold obviously is down in the dumper, Silver sees mid-Profile support at the depicted 37.90 level.  But to avoid a Silver slip, Gold need get a grip:

    To wrap, we’ve already reviewed inflation’s “Whopper of the Week“.  Let us thus close with our favourite “Headline of the Week“, courtesy of Bloomy just last evening.  Ready?

    • “Wall Street Wrestles With Hedging Conundrum as Valuations Swell”.

    Cue a pet quip of ours:  “They’re just figuring this out now?”  ‘Tis to laugh, but let’s try to help those floundering in Manhattan’s financial canyons.  The S&P 500 settled yesterday at a near-record high 6450 with the aforementioned p/e ratio of 46.3x and paltry yield of 1.201%.  What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is in purchasing the S&P right now, you are paying $46.30 for something that earns $1, (plus some dividend change for your usage of gas station toilets), along with the thrill of your $46.30 being halved upon the next -50% market “correction”; (recall we’ve already had two such “corrections” thus far this century).  Instead, one can opt for the U.S. Treasury’s 3-month Bill currently yielding an annualized 4.112% and return of the Bill’s face value.  So what’s the conundrum, eh?

    “Well, you’d have to trust the U.S. Treasury’s solvency, mmb…”

    Good point, Squire.  So alternatively…

    Got yours?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 821 – (09 August 2025) – “Double Shot of that Golden Love”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 821st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 09 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Double Shot of that Golden Love“

    Back in ’63, Dick Holler & the Holidays crooned a tune (penned by Don Smith and Cyril Vetter) entitled “Double Shot (Of My Baby’s Love)”.  The catchy piece has since been covered ‘twould seem some 5,000 times, similar to Gold’s being recognized as real money for some 5,000 years.  Be that exaggerative or otherwise, we’ve just been gifted a “Double Shot of that Golden Love” as follows:

    • Shot One:  as you regular readers already know, just back on 25 July, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend formally flipped from Short-to-Long;

    • Shot Two:  price’s settle this past Thursday (3483) in turn confirmed Gold’s daily parabolic trend also flipping to Long.

    “I’m feelin’ the love there, mmb!”

    As well we ought, Squire.  Toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 3458, Gold’s “continuous contract” en route made an All-Time High at 3534, albeit that needs a bit of qualification, by which again we bullet-point three types:

    • Spot Gold:  is the de facto hard-money resource, the official All-Time High for which is 3500 as traded this past 22 April;

    • Continuous Gold:  is the chaining together of futures contracts (Gold’s most liquid trading form) such as to present (per our weekly bars graphic) a continuous history of the futures price, its new All-Time High just achieved as noted yesterday at 3534;

    • December Gold:  is the current so-called “front-month” futures contract, its All-Time High too achieved back on 22 April at 3586 (when June was then the “front-month”, with its 3510 high).

    Regardless of which All-Time High you prefer to apply, what we now see as key is December’s 3586 being relatively short-lived (no pun) given the timing of this fresh “Double Shot of that Golden Love”, should price evolve similarly as it has by both the various weekly and daily parabolic Long trends across the past 10 years.

    Recall from two missives ago our historical table of Gold’s prior 10 weekly parabolic Long trends having produced average upside price follow-through of +10%, which applied to this stint would find Gold well up into the 3600s.  And per our Market Rhythms’ analyses, Gold’s best study for pure swing consistency is its daily parabolics, presently ranked (on a 24-test basis) at No.1 of the 405 rhythms tested nightly.

    All of which in an encapsulated Golden nugget means we anticipate still higher highs through these ensuing weeks.

    That stated, even the best markets’ analyses are no holy grail, provably as signals can — and do — fail.  To wit, beware of John Bollinger and his Band(s).  The following graphic depicts December Gold by the day from this past April-to-date.  The two encircled rightmost wee blues dots are, of course, the commencement of this new daily parabolic Long trend for Gold.  However, we’ve also applied the two violet Bollinger Bands, the upper through which — at Friday’s open — price penetrated (thank you StateSide tariff on Swiss Gold … see our close).  Therein, note price’s imminent decline per the white lines after such prior upside penetrations:

    “But it’s different this time, right mmb?”

    Our sharp-eyed Squire gets it.  Unlike the graphic’s prior “white-line” declines following upper Bollinger Band penetrations occurring into already well-established parabolic Long — and even Short — trends, this time ’round we’ve the “Double Shot of that Golden Love” of both the weekly and daily versions having instead just commenced.  Further, being this near to the next All-Time High per the December contract (3586), we sense the net trading push is in that direction, (in turn slapping the Shorts silly).  So as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, clearly the slant is toward still higher levels:

    More broadly, here next we’ve Gold by the day across the past 15 years-to-date, notably with respect to price’s once highly-regarded 300-day moving average.  The Gold Short may argue that price is far too high above the average.  To which the Bull shall snort and retort that price today (3458) vis-à-vis the value of Gold by Dollar debasement (3861) is at a very attractive -10% discount.  Don’t pull the wool over the bull:

    Yet just as Gold remains undervalued relative to its most foundational metric of Dollar debasement, so does the S&P 500 remain overvalued (understatement) to its most foundational metric of earnings.  With but a week to run in Q2 Earnings Season, an above-average 79% have beaten The Street’s marketing tool known as “estimates” … but just 67% — only one pip above the historical mean — have improved their year-over-year quarterly performance.  Is it any wonder the “live” price/earnings ratio is 46.7x?  Baffling is the S&P red line in the Baro:

    As to the Econ Baro itself, the past week’s set of incoming data points elicited a bit of a negative bent:  of the eight reports, just three bettered their prior period result, Q2 Productivity being the star there in swinging from -1.8% in Q1 to now +2.4%.  The five stinkers were lowlighted by Factory Orders, after being +8.3% for May, shrinking -4.8% in June.  Oh yes, and with respect to last Tuesday’s -0.5% “the world is ending” drop in the S&P, ’twas ever so severely blamed on the Institute for Supply Management Services Index’s wee July drop from June’s to 50.8 to now 50.1.  ‘Course, this time of year, the FinMedia desks are staffed by summer interns:  “Hey, look at this plunge!  That’s headline stuff, man!”  (They’d be better off in Summer School learning arithmetic).

    As for Gold’s Friday “Spike n’ Plunge”, ’tis the rightmost bar below on the left as we view the lot across the past three months-to-date.  Whilst arguably a “failure day”, of greater import are the rising “Baby Blues” indicative of the regression uptrend nonetheless gaining strength.  Too, on the right, price remains in the upper-third of the 10-day Market Profile, the most volume-dominant underlying supporter being 3431:

    But not exactly similar is the like graphic for Silver.  Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are falling away as the regression trend has rotated to negative; but perhaps ’tis mostly momentary given her price getting a grip across recent sessions.  And by her Market Profile (below right), 38.25 shows as key support.  Moreover, how close is Sweet Sister Silver to 40!  She has not traded at that handle since 21 September 2011!  And we have to think that given Gold getting on the move per both its fresh daily and weekly parabolic Long trends, Silver ought finally get swept up over 40.  “C’mon Sister Silver!!”

    As teased, let’s close with the high-drama event of the week:  the evoking of “Tariff Terror!” on Gold bars  of both one kilogram and 100 ounces imported from Switzerland into the U.S.  And with the utmost respect for our beloved Swiss family to the north of us, we had to chuckle.  We don’t know how many folks StateSide regularly engage in buying 1kg bars of Swiss Gold (currently $122k/bar + 39% tariff = $170k/bar), let alone nearly triple that for a 100/oz. bar.  Regardless, our mobile phone here lit up with chaotic panic over the 39% imposition, (for which ’tis now said may be misinterpreted).

    ‘Course, unlike today’s FinMedia, the late great Paul Harvey would have additionally reported to us “the rest of the story”.  To be sure, after having settled Thursday at 3482,  four minutes into Friday’s session found Gold having spiked +1.5% to the aforementioned new “continuous contract” All-Time High of 3534.  But “left out of the story” was that 31 minutes into the session, Gold was back down to where it had ended Thursday.  Further, the Swiss Franc was completely docile over it all, trading just 54% of its EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) on Friday.  As for Gold, here is Friday’s first hour of trading by the minute, courtesy of the “If You Blinked, You Missed It Dept.”:

    Either way, our double-shot bottom line is:  do not miss out in owning Gold, and Silver too with $40/oz. in view!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 820 – (02 August 2025) – “Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 820th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 02 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate“

    As you studied aficionados of deMeadville well know, we refer to those BEGOS Markets comprising Gold, Silver and Copper as “The Metals Triumvirate”.  And lately, turbulent indeed has been its components’ price paths:

    • Gold from 23 July through 30 July fell by as much as -5.4%;
    • Silver from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -9.1%;
    • Copper from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -27.3% (ain’t no typo).

    Then specific to the week just past, Silver had no net weekly gain, and worse, “economy-leading, but now tariff-butt-kicked” Copper had no hope, period.

    However, Gold was a gainer, its December contract settling yesterday (Friday) at 3416 for an actual net weekly advance of +0.7% (+23 points).  Gold’s so-called “continuous contract” gained +2.3% (+78 points) given +54 points of fresh price premium per the August contract having rolled forward to December.

    Thus, this being a graphics-rich “end-of-month, plus-a-day” edition of The Gold Update, let’s get going with the yellow metal’s weekly bars by the continuous contract from one year ago-to-date, highlighted by a second week of the fresh parabolic Long trend.  The run from here to the All-Time High (3510 on 22 April) is another +2.8% (+94 points).  And as we detailed a week ago, given recent parabolic Long trend history, that is reasonably within range during this stint:

    As for Sister Silver — sadly donned in her industrial metal jacket — she was pulled down in sympathy with Cousin Copper’s colossal collapse, the Gold/Silver ratio in turn leaping from 87.1x just a week ago to now 92.1x (as above depicted).  Surely Silver shall swiftly come to her senses and re-don her precious metal pinstripes.  Either way, she’s had an amazing year-to-date, second only to Gold as we turn to our BEGOS Markets Standings.  Think things are uncertain out there?  Look at the top three podium positions:

    Indeed for the precious metals at large, “Up!” has been “It!”  From this time a year ago-to-date, here we’ve the following percentage tracks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) +22%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +27%, Newmont (NEM) +32%, Gold itself +37%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) both +42%, and ever-amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +67%.  Is livin’ with equities’ leverage your favourite beverage?  Per the “It All Depends From Where You Start Dept.”, Gold itself has been the Big Winner from 2020-to-date:  +124%; the balance of the equities bunch then range from +103% for AEM down to +14% for PAAS … just in case yer scorin’ at home.  Here’s the year-over-year graphic:

    As entitled, “turbulence” has characterized The Metals Triumvirate of late.  ‘Tis starkly evident here in going ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets.  Each frame depicts that market’s last 21 trading days (one month), grey trendline and “Baby Blues”, the directionally-leading dots which define the trendline’s day-to-day consistency.  Specific to the metals’ turbulence, Gold has well-recovered most of its recent plunge; but not so Silver, nor clearly Copper.  However:  we see the biggest story therein as the S&P 500 (“SPOO”).  We’ve purposefully re-coloured several of its blue dots in red, as when they fall (from above the +80% area), we anticipate lower prices.  And akin to Copper, that’s one heckova long-anticipated S&P “Whoopsie!” in the lower righthand panel:

    “But was yesterday just a one-day wonder-plunge for the S&P, mmb?”

    Squire, if the market is at long-last coming to its senses, en route to reverting to important means — be they fundamental, technical or quantitative — no ’twas not a one-day wonder.  As posted only internally for deMeadville on Thursday evening, (the S&P then 6339 and now 6238):

    • “IF this is the beginning of the broad correction, the initial fib golden ratio retracement (basis today’s high to April’s low) is down to 5861; then the mid-point is 5673; then the full golden ratio retracement is to 5485.  Retracement to the top of the  55-year regression channel is  4513.  And retracement to the top of the “had covid never happened” regression channel is 2941.”

    But that boldly stated, you know how this market behaves in The Investing Age of Stoopid:   “Earnings mean nothing, stocks always triple, buy every dip!”

    “You always go on about ‘earnings mean nothing’, mmb…”

    And here is why, Squire.  Look at the ongoing Q2 Earnings Season, (with two weeks to run in the balance).  80% of the S&P 500 reporting constituents have beaten the investment banker’s marketing tool known as “estimates”.  Yeah, ok, so that’s cute.  But comparatively, only 65% have actually done better year-over-year, which is a slightly below average pace.  That never gets any notice.  And with the honestly-calculated “live” P/E of the S&P now 46.5x but hardly any dividend yield (1.233%) versus “risk-free” (gulp!) short-term U.S. dough paying 4.182%, the problem is obvious:  the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is not sustainable for price.  Period.  We’ve been through this before — and barring Stoopid continuing to prevail — here it comes again.  For whenever the next material correction does come, the fear factor shall be massive:  “But, we were never taught about ‘selling’!”  Have the popcorn ready.

    Moving on to the Federal Reserve, when was the last time you read dissent into the foot of the Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement?  Oh to be sure, there’s been some minor disagreement in recent years; but this past Wednesday, both Ms. Bowman and Mr. Waller voted in the minority for a -0.25 basis points reduction in the bank’s Funds Rate, which instead rightly was maintained in the target range of 4.25%-to-4.50%.

    Meanwhile, President Trump’s contention is that a rate cut is absolutely necessary because (paraphrasing):  “the economy is strong and inflation is low”.  Having spoken with a number of market mavens ’round here, all agree that opinion makes no economic sense.  Moreover, inflation has reversed its recent pace of slowing and is again growing.  Here’s our June Inflation Summary table, nonetheless noting therein the benign wholesale pace of the Producer Price Index.  Still, “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures ratcheted higher:

     

    As to the past week’s biggest surprise, for us ’twas the initial read of Stateside Q2 Gross Domestic Product:  the consensii had it pegged for a +2.5% annualized pace, whereas we wouldn’t have been surprised by a negative pace given both the leading Q2 fallout in the Economic Barometer along with the Conference Board’s lagging report of “Leading Indicators” which hasn’t been positive since last December.  So what happened?  The GDP came in at +3.0%.  To quote John Patrick McEnroe:  “You canNOT be SERious!!”  –[The All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, 22 June, 1981].  Let’s see what the first GDP revision is come 28 August.  Here’s the Baro:

    Indeed, of the Baro’s 18 incoming metrics last week, 10 improved period-over-period.  Cursiously though again, July’s ADP Employment creation directionally differed from Labor’s Payrolls.  The former beat consensus and had June favourably revised; the latter missed consensus and had June unfavourably revised.  Reprise:  “It depends thus on who’s counting what.“

    What we can count on from week-to-week are the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals.  And next on the left we’ve that for Gold (in December pricing), the present 3416 level being the white bar near the Profile’s center.  But on the right, Silver’s dallying with Copper finds her price (37.11) lower down in the stack.  “C’mon, Sister Silver…”:

    Naturally it being month-end, plus one trading day, here is the monthly Gold Structure for the past 15 years.  The rightmost green bar is merely Friday (yesterday) alone, it having been 01 August.  ‘Tis been quite the run for Gold across this time frame, ‘specially after only just two-to-four years ago when Gold’s infamous Triple-Top pricing was “Dancing on the ceiling…”, –[Lionel Richie, ’86]:

    Metals turbulence notwithstanding, next week is a bit more benign for the Econ Baro with just eight metrics due, including improved (purportedly) Productivity for Q2.  Are you productively maintaining a sound supply of Gold?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 819 – (26 July 2025) – “Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 819th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell“

    We open with both Good News and Bad News for Gold:

    The Good News is this past Wednesday at 00:21 GMT, Gold provisionally ended its 10-week parabolic Short spell upon breaking above 3449, confirmation then coming at the (albeit quite a bit lower) 3339 settle yesterday (Friday).

    The Bad News is in surpassing 3449 by only a few points to 3452, Gold then fell pell-mell through the week’s balance to as low as 3323 — a three-day -3.7% El Plungo (technical term) of -129 points — en route to the noted 3339 settle.

    Thus Gold has begun its new weekly parabolic Long trend by going the wrong way, in turn sporting its sixth worst “points given up” from high to settle of the year’s 30 weeks-to-date.  ‘Twas not a beautiful thAng.  Either way, here year-over-year are Gold’s weekly bars, featuring its fresh rightmost encircled parabolic Long trend blue dot, which in itself always is a beautiful thAng:

    ‘Course, one trend’s inference is not necessarily that of all measures on the same time frame.  As herein posted in our 28 June missive, we’ve since updated Gold’s weekly bars for these past three calendar years along with the MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) study.  And by that construct, it keeps the “bad idea” of being Short — rather than Long — on the table, given the recent and still ongoing negative MACD crossover.  However, we don’t sense ’tis that worrying:

    Nonetheless cited, let’s go the “What To Do? Dept.”  Clearly by Gold’s upward slant across the above graphic, the Long side has been the right side.  ‘Tis easy to prove mathematically:  in purely swinging solely on the Short trends of Gold’s last five weekly MACD negative crossovers, the silly Shorts have amassed a single contract loss of -$57,500; whereas purely swinging on Gold’s last five weekly Parabolic Long trends is a single contract gain of +$69,600.  Reprise:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”  Case closed.

    “So because the parabolic trend now is up means another all-time high is coming, right mmb?”

    Squire, whilst over time inevitably yes, ’tis hardly “automatic” during this new Long stint.  But we conservatively give it a 60% chance of occurring given the following table’s statistics.  Therein we display the performance of Gold’s last 10 weekly parabolic Long trends.  Bearing in mind that from here at 3339, Gold need gain at least +5.2% on this trend to reach 3511, (the current All-Time High being 3510 since 22 April).  So why a 60% chance of getting there?  In the “Max Gain” column, six of the 10 trends bettered +5.2%.  Further, why “conservatively”?  Because the both the average and median gains of Long trend are basically +10%.  Moreover, solely in that +10% vacuum with durations running 13-15 weeks, November would bring us Gold 3700.  That’s not a predication, rather a reasonable assessment of potential upside range, barring this Long trend becoming Short-lived.  Here’s the table:

    And to be sure, there’s a lot on the mid-summer table to affect the price of Gold.  Most imminently, next Wednesday (30 July) brings The Big Double-Whammy of StateSide Q2 Gross Domestic Product followed by the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement.  Then two days hence brings 01 August and the introduction of more “Trump Tariffs!”

    Too, there’s this from the “Oh By The Way Dept.”  ‘Tis time for the U.S. Treasury to spritely come up with $7T to pay its noble holders of maturing Bills, Notes and Bonds.  According to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), as of this year’s Q1, operating cash amounted to about $406B, which combined with other monetary assets totaled a tad over $1T for 2024.  Thus by your six-year-old’s first grade arithmetic, the Treasury is about -$6T short of its looming funding requirements.

    So who or what is going to buy all this requisite new debt?  Here’s a thought:  remember that (as we herein mathematically constructed) “all” $7T of the COVID monetary “creation” essentially found its way into the S&P 500.  So, why not have the Treasury thus promote a “group sell” of $7T in stocks with the  proceeds moving into debt at its currently attractive rates?  ‘Tis so easy, a WestPalmBeacher can do it.

    “But mmb, that might crash the stock market…”

    The stock market, Squire, is so overdue for a harrowing crash, be it driven fundamentally, technically and/or quantitatively, a “group sell” to save the U.S. Treasury would be the perfect crash catalyst.

    But with respect to Gold (and barring such selling of stocks), should the ensuing Treasury auctions be feeble, ‘twould fall to the Fed being forced to make that next BIG accounting entry to buy up the difference.  And Gold, in turn, would go upside gonzo nuts (again, a technical term).

    Speaking of stocks, we’ve run out of ways to indeed express (purposeful repeat) how we’ve run out of ways to describe the LooneyTunes overvaluation of the S&P 500.  During recent years, we’ve herein detailed in-depth (using what is today an unknown science called “math”) sensible scenarios for the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash and the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.  Now let’s add to those the “That’s All, Folks!” crash, wherein upon it all going wrong, the market doesn’t so much crash as instead ’tis just closed, (rather akin to the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash).  Then again the Fed can create the difference and ’tis more upside gonzo nuts for Gold.

    As to the current state of the S&P, ’tis now 23 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”, as well as having arrived at our “extremely overbought” classification with a sub-par Q2 Earnings Season in process.  Oh yes, we saw the CNBC[S] end-of-week headline last evening:  “S&P 500 posts fifth straight record close this week, powered by solid earnings”.  Hardly are earnings “solid”.  To wit:

    In this era of dumbing-down earnings estimates to dirt, ’tis super easy to beat ’em:  so far for Q2, we’ve 149 S&P 500 constituents having reported, of which 79% have exceeded expectations!  Why typically, only 76% so do!  Sadly however, here’s where the “solid” earnings hocus-pocus loses focus.  In an average Earnings Season,  66% of the constituents improve their bottom lines over the like quarter of a year earlier.  To this point for Q2, such rate has slowed to 63%.  ‘Course that shan’t be on CNBS, Bloomy nor FoxyB.  But ’tis why the following multiple has gone beyond stoopid:

    Again, don’t argue nor ask “AI“; just do the math.  And per last week’s piece, yes, we still sense “The Sell” shall be ever-intense.

    As to the math that makes up the Economic Barometer, as anticipated, ’twas well ahead of last Monday’s lagging indicator known as the Conference Board’s “Leading Indicators”.  So severe had been June’s Econ Baro plunge, we knew the consensii for just -0.1% shrinkage in the June reading was too timid:  rather, it came in (no surprise) at -0.3%.  Too, the month’s Existing Home Sales slowed and Durable Orders shrank.  But bailing the Baro out by just the wee-est of bits was growth in June’s New Home Sales, plus a reduction in the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.  So below, we’ve the whole picture from one year ago-to-date.  Duly therein note the insert of the S&P 500 futures chart for the past month (21 trading days):  we made such a song-n’-dance a week ago about the baby blue dots of trend consistency being finally in decline … but they’ve suddenly lurched back up (per the three red dots).  “Perfect timing ain’t easy…”:

     

    Back to Gold, per our opening observation, ’tis a bit of a dismal start to the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend.  You can see the selling quite starkly in the lower left-hand panel following the rightmost high of last Wednesday, the “Baby Blues” having just kinked lower, too. As for the lower right-hand panel, Gold has formed quite a bevy of overhead volume-dominant resistors as labeled:

    The like graphic for Silver shows her having also just taken a bit of a beating per her daily bars from three months ago-to-date (at left).  Still, her 10-day Market Profile suggests some safety in the 38s (at right):

    We see next week as pivotal for both Gold and the S&P.  Inclusive of the GDP, the FOMC and the renewed tariffs spree come 18 metrics for the Econ Baro’s scrutiny. As well, Gold’s contract volume rolls from that for August into that for December with better than +50 points of fresh premium, merci!   Where might your money be?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 818 – (19 July 2025) – “Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 818th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell“

    With Gold’s weekly parabolic trend still Short — uncannily so given there’s not been a wit of substantive price decline throughout — we open with British band Ace from back in ’75: “How lonnng… has this been goin’ onnn…”, such pop hit reaching Billboard’s Hot 100 No. 3 slot on Saturday, 05 April of that year, with Gold having settled the day before at 174.

    Fast forward to Gold having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3356 and ’tis a 50-year price increase of +1,829% … just in case you’re scoring at home.

    ‘Course, compared to the 1¢ cost in 1975 for one piece of Bazooka Bubble Gum, such piece today is  bulk-marketed for 24¢, an increase of +2,300%:  thus Gold is lagging bubble gum inflation.

    “And mmb, by the money supply, it’s about that too, eh?”

    Similarly so, Squire.  The StateSide “M2” money supply for April 1975 was $935B.  From then to today at $22T, ’tis +2,253%.  So by either measure, “Got Gold?”

    But as to our query via Ace for the duration of Gold’s current weekly parabolic Short trend, note a 10th rightmost red dot having now appeared on the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  Indeed, Gold appears ever so stuck it its shell of late:

    Moreover as you regular readers well know, a favourite quip of ours is “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  To wit, we’ve the following table of Gold’s last 10 (inclusive) weekly parabolic Short trends, the current stint as bordered in red.  In assessing the average price extremes at the table’s foot, price’s maximum decline — for which the silly Shorts seek — is basically half (-3.2%) that of the adversity suffered (+6.0%) during the course of the trade.  To be sure, success depends upon determining if decline precedes upside adversity or vice-versa, and at what point profit — if any — is realized.  And as the bordered box shows, this ongoing Short trend has recorded at most just a -0.4% decline versus +8.0% of a “pain in the Shorts” if you will:

    Albeit to be fair, such Short stints recorded from 2012 through 2015 instead squashed the Longs.  Markedly, from Gold’s high at 1923 on 06 September 2011 to the low at 1045 on 03 December 2015 was a -45.7% stunner.  Since then however, monetary debasement has been mostly moon-bound per our opening Gold Scoreboard’s right panel.

    As to “The Now”, regardless of Gold being shell-stuck in this continuing Short trend to nowhere, 10 weeks in duration is getting (dare we say) “Long” in the tooth.  Price’s expected weekly trading range is now 139 points (the daily currently 46 points).  So with present price (3356) now -93 points below the Short-to-Long price (3449), an ensuing firm week for Gold can flip the trend en route toward another All-Time High, (which presently remains 3510 from back on 22 April).  “Get Gold!”

    Next let’s shift gears to the second half of this missive’s title with respect to the pending S&P’s sell, which upon kicking in ought ring out many a Gold bell.  To peruse the FinMedia, in Stocks-Land all is well.  With pursuance of math a thing of the past, each outlet parroting what each other is reporting in turn portrays such happy stocks days.  Now let’s go to The Truth.

    First, fundamentally:

    • From CNBC[S] on Thursday:  “…Quarterly [Q2] earnings reports this week have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, fueling investor confidence…” the S&P in turn having recorded another all-time intra-day high yesterday at 6315, seriously?

    • Bloomy (yesterday):  “…markets are behaving rationally…”  The trailing 12-months price/earnings ratio of 46.9x is rational?

    • Morningstar yesterday:   “…New research finds that valuation expansion — not stronger fundamentals — has fueled US stocks’ dominance since 2008…”  They’re just figuring this out now?

    Let’s be specific about the young Q2 Earnings season to this point:  for the 503 constituents that comprise the S&P 500, we count 40 having thus far reported.  Oh to be sure, 83% of those have beaten estimates!  Ain’t that great?

    But wait:  Only 65% actually made more money than in Q2 a year ago.  Uh-oh.  Say it ain’t so:  “Well that wasn’t on the TV, Emeline!”

    Nor shall it be as ’tis beyond the paygrade of the participants engaged in The Investing Age Of Stoopid to calculate.  And to fairly acknowledge whilst ’tis still very early in Q2 Earnings Season, that 65% bottom line improvement thus far is less than the 66% for Q1, let alone the 69% for Q4.  Which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the pace of year-over-year quarterly earnings improvement is weakening.  Whoopsie!

    Second, technically:

    The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the last 18 trading days.  Hardly is that a record, but ’tis what ’tis.

    Further, let’s go inside the deMeadville proprietary numbers per the following display relating directly to the S&P 500 futures (aka the “Spoo”).  Per the below graphic, the left-hand panel is the Spoo’s daily bars for the past 21 trading days (one month).  So in sync with conventional wisdom, obviously, the market never goes down.

    However, the leading “Baby Blues” — those dots of trend consistency — have just settled below their key +80% axis as labeled at 79.7%.  From a year ago-to-date, such phenomenon has occurred but five other times leading to an average price drop within the ensuing 21 trading days of -172 points.  To be sure from here, ‘twould be less than a -3% correction, albeit the worst of the five prior cases would be basically be more than -7% down.  Such magnitude is not (yet) a prediction; rather ’tis smart of which to be wary.  The “SELL” in the table of the BEGOS Markets nightly readings of the “Baby Blues” is our alert to this condition, for which attention ought be paid:

    “But wait a sec, mmb, ’cause the economy’s suddenly roaring!  So much higher still for stocks, right?”

    Not necessarily, dear Squire.  A “roaring” (as you put it) economy means the Federal Open Market Committee shan’t vote to cut the FedFunds rate come 30 July, (eight trading days from today).  And disheartened cut expectations do not play well into equities.

    Still to Squire’s point, since 09 July the Economic Barometer has posted a shocking recovery:  ‘tis the largest 8-trading-day bounce for the Baro in its 27-year history!  Indeed for the 18 incoming metrics of just this past week, 14 improved period-over-period.  Standouts included June’s Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Core Retail Sales, and Housing Starts/Permits:  all improved, all beat consensii, and all had their May readings revised higher.

    As to inflation, there was quite a dichotomy between that for retail versus wholesale.  June’s Consumer Price Index pace leapt from +0.1% in May to +0.3%, yet the month’s Producer Price Index recorded no increase whatsoever.  Does that mean July shall be kinder to the consumer?  But then, there are more tariffs-a-brewin’!  Either way, for the recent Baro, ’tis been “Up, Up and Away, Olé!”

    Not to place a damper on all the equities’ and economics’ euphoria, we’ve nonetheless this from the “Feet on the Ground Reminders Dept.”  As noted, the FOMC releases its next Policy Statement on 30 July.  And preceding it that same morning comes the first peek at Q2’s Gross Domestic Product.  Per the Baro, we anticipate it shan’t be pretty.  Yet now suddenly, the economy (per Squire) is “roaring”, right?  Write it down, (double entendre).

    Meanwhile back to Gold we go with our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and on the right the 10-day Market Profile.  Because the “Baby Blues” again denoting trend consistency are essentially at 0%, it means that Gold of late is, well, trendless.  Nearby volume-dominant support and resistance are as labeled in the Profile:

    Silver however, on the heels on the prior week’s upside drama, fares better than Gold in the overall picture.  The climbing out of her “Baby Blues” (at left) are uptrend supportive, whereas in her Profile (at right) presently priced at 38.43 is just above the most volume-dominant supporter of 38.10.  Hang in there, Sister Silver!

    So with Gold still stuck in its shell but the S&P poised for a sell, let’s look at the Stack, for ’tis just swell:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3853
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3449
    10-Session directional range:  up to to 3389 (from 3291) = +98 points or +3.0%
    Trading Resistance:  by the Profile 3359 / 3370 / 3381
    Gold Currently:  3356, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  46 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3345 / 3334 / 3320 / 3311
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3342
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2798 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Into the new week can the Econ Baro seek a further peak?  Probably not, although neither should it succumb much, if at all:   just five metrics come due, Monday most notably bringing for June the Conference Board’s lagging indicator known as “Leading Indicators”.  Expectations are for the reading to remain negative as ’twas for May:  no argument here.

    As for our anticipated S&P 500 correction, here are a few P/E nuggets to bear in mind:

    • The day before the Garzarelli Crash of ’87 the P/E was 20.3x;
    • The day before commencement of the DotComBomb of ’00-’02 the P/E was 29.3x;
    • The day before the start of the FinCrisis of ’07-’09, the P/E was 18.7x.

    As aforementioned, ’tis now 46.9x, the S&P yielding less than one-third that of the “riskless” U.S. T-Bill.

    Note:  math-challenged “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) puts the S&P’s P/E at 25.9x … wrong.  (Just wait until “AI” gets its hands on your discretionary portfolio.  Reprise:  Whoopsie!)

    So to wrap:

    Query One:  “Do you know where your stocks’ stops are?”

    Query Two (again):  “Got Gold?“

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 817 – (12 July 2025) – “Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 817th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!“

    “If I may open, mmb, Gold is now +27.7% this year:  no way that’s boring…”

    Admittedly, dear Squire, perhaps a bit exaggerated is our title’s “boring” description for Gold.  So far this century, the 28-week year-to-date increase of +27.7% ranks second only to such like stint during 2006:  so in that broader context, to your point, ’tis rather exhilarating, one has to say.

    Yet, on the heels of last week’s piece “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week…” — price having since settled yesterday (Friday) at 3370 — through this year’s 28 weeks ’twas Gold’s third narrowest as measured by percentage from low (3290) to high (3382), i.e. +2.8% … “boring…”

    “So a week’s range of less than 3% isn’t very, as you like to say ‘alacritive’, eh mmb?”

    Squire, ’tis certainly not very characteristic of 2025-to-date.  Thus far this year, Gold’s 20 up weeks have averaged a low-to-high range of +4.1% versus a high-to-low average range of -4.7% during the eight down weeks.  Thus this past week’s full range of +2.8% was rather skimpy.

    That noted, the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) suggests as an antonym for “skimpy” the word “abundant”.  And for Sweet Sister Silver, her week’s range — and moreover net percentage gain of +8.0%  — were very abundant, indeed as she found her price yesterday “Soaring!” to its highest daily close (39.08) since 21 September 2011!  ‘Twas her sixth-best weekly percentage gain so far this year (for which she’s +33.4% all told), in turn driving down the Gold/Silver ratio from 90.1x a week ago to now 86.3x … which nevertheless still means Silver is cheap given the ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.2x.  Means reversion is a beautiful thAng.

    To visualize what it means to find Gold “boring…” versus Silver “Soaring!” we’ve the following three-panel graphic of our Metals Triumvirate such as to include Copper “ROARING!!”, the red metal year-to-date now +38.8% and leading all eight of our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500).  The graphs’ bars as arrayed are their respective last 21 trading days (one month), replete with grey diagonal linear regression trendlines and the ever-popular “Baby Blues” which depict the day-to-day consistency of trend.  And obviously of late, Sister Silver — rather than adorned in her precious metal pinstripes — has instead opted for her industrial metal jacket so as to “party hearty” with Cousin Copper.  That noted however, Silver’s rightmost two bars (Thursday and Friday) are more directionally aligned with Gold than with Copper.  For at the end of the day, Sweet Sister Silver — like Gold — is money:

    In fact as a rare treat, let’s bring up Silver’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, the duration below of her blue-dotted Long trend now eight weeks.  (You did not forget the Silver, did you, mate?):

    Whereas in swerving back to poor ol’ boring Gold, the yellow metal just recorded its ninth week of red-dotted parabolic Short trend:

    As for Gold’s pace, ’tis run a bit out of puff of late.  Here we’ve Gold’s expected weekly trading range by points so far this year.  Note it has nearly doubled from back in January, but in the recent boredom has begun to wane, the current read for next week being 145 points, albeit price has underperformed the expected range these past four stints:

    But:  has the Economic Barometer finally ceased its wane?  To borrower from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement boilerplate, we too shall “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.  Either way, on the heels of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt having “X’d” a week ago “…the economy is BOOMING…” (yes really), this past week’s set of only four incoming metrics nonetheless on balance gave the Baro a wee boost.  Thereto, May’s Wholesale Inventories shank (a positive, suggesting goods are on the move), Initial Jobless Claims were less, and the U.S. Treasury actually recorded a budget surplus in June (again, yes really) for just the fifth time in three full years as (hat-tip Reuters) duty collections by U.S. customs posted a record fiscal-year high given (our descriptor) “Trump Tariffs!”  The week’s only weak metric was Consumer Credit having significantly slowed in May … so does that indicate the main driver of the U.S. economy is getting tapped out?  At least as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, tapped-out earnings (relative to price) continue not to matter.  Here’s the Baro:

    Moreover comes this ensuing week for which the Baro anticipates 18 metrics including retail and wholesale inflation for June.  Shall they suggest further cooling … or heating up in Summer’s swooning?  On verra…

    To the Precious Metals’ 10-day Market Profiles we turn for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  And to the yellow metal’s credit, in the latter part of the week it muscled up through quite a density of overhead volume-dominant resistance toward getting to this 3370 level.  As for the white metal, last week we’d already seen her underlying volume-dominant support, from which she soared yesterday as aforementioned to her highest daily settle in nearly 14 years!  Brava, Brava, Sister Silva!!

    And so we close with this from the “Hype of the Week Dept.” featuring Nvidia (NVDA).  (Even as we “don’t do stocks”, this was too good to avoid the curiosity of doing the math).  Ready?

    The mighty video card maker turned “AI” chipster now tops the S&P 500 market capitalization at just over $4T.  Thus for these last couple of days we’ve been hearing time and again that “Wow!  Nvidia’s worth over $4T!!” … except such use of the vernacular is incorrect.  ‘Tis worth nowhere near $4T.

    Rather, by the company’s balance sheet as recorded at the end of this past Q1, the net worth is $84B.  In other words, the amount of money invested in Nvidia as marked-to-market today is 48x what the company actually is worth; (that shan’t be on Bloomy, nor FoxyB, nor CNBS, neque alii).  Such stat is actually quite similar to that for Apple (AAPL)’s 47x; however, far more conservative is Microsoft (MSFT)’s 12x, even as its net worth is some four times greater than that of Nvidia.

    Still, for those of you scoring at home with a marked-to-market investment at present of, say, $10,000 in Nvidia, were the company to instantly (in theory) liquidate, you’d receive (if lucky after the bondholders) about $200, i.e. only 2% of “what you thought you had”.  Have a nice day.

    ‘Course the lesson for you WestPalmBeachers down there is:  when you buy shares in a publicly-traded company, it doesn’t get the money; it goes to the seller.  So try not to get carried away…

    And congrats if not having forgotten Soaring Sister Silver!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 816 – (05 July 2025) – “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 816th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak“

    Through this year’s 27 trading weeks-to-date, the most recent one for Gold posted a unique set of parameters not yet recorded during 2025.  Ready?

    • Gold’s high for the week (3377) was lower than that prior (3414);
    • Too, Gold’s low for the week (3251) was lower than that prior (3267);
    • And yet, Gold’s “settle” yesterday (Friday) at 3347* was higher than that prior (3286).
      *We acknowledge that Friday’s trading session — given the StateSide holiday — is for settlement this Monday (07 July); thus the “official” weekly settle for Gold was Thursday’s 3336; however to keep you on the cutting edge of being properly informed, let’s go with Friday’s 3347, (because — for you WestPalmBeachers down there — Friday was after Thursday).

    “But by that accounting, a +60-point gain for the week isn’t ‘weak’, mmb…”

    To your point, Squire, we can wryly agree.  ‘Tis just that — generally speaking — lower highs and lower lows oft lead to still lower levels; thus ’twas a “weak week” perhaps in a leading sense.  And previous to this, Gold had not posted a lower weekly high and lower weekly low for a net up week since that ending 11 October 2024 … we tend to notice little things like that.

    Either way, what does it all mean?  Naturally none of us surely know, albeit after having last happened those 38 weeks ago in October, mid-November then found Gold some -132 points even lower, (just in case yer scoring at home).

    So, is that relevant in this case?  No fundamentally, given Gold broadly has so much higher to go.  Yet technically, this imbroglio may spell more downside to go per Gold’s weekly parabolic trend as we next show:

    Close inspection of the chart’s rightmost two bars depicts the lower highs and lows (red lines) yet the net upswing in price (green line). Too much information perhaps, but ’tis an unusual occurrence; and just because it led to still lower prices last time, hardly does that predict same this time.  Regardless as noted, whilst the U.S. yesterday celebrated its 249th anniversary of independence, Gold gained those additional +11 points from 3336 to 3347 in commencing Monday’s session on Friday.  Got it?  Great.

    Next let’s graphically state how Gold is trading of late.  The following two-panel display is culled from the website as updated each trading day.  Regular readers shall recognize on the left our comparing Gold to its smooth valuation line from three months ago-to-date, borne of price’s changes to those of the other primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P).  Price being below the smooth line (by points per the oscillator) is suggestive of lower levels near-term, the actual signal of course coming upon Gold having crossed beneath the line back on 24 June from 3372.  And on the right we’ve Gold’s EDTR (“Expected Daily Trading Range”) by the day from a year ago-to-date.  Amongst tariffs scuffles and geo-political troubles, the EDTR ran as high as 92.4 points back on 28 April, from which to today ’tis nearly halved such expectation to 53.8 points.  The notion is that much of Gold’s trading energy of late is dissipating, just in time for summer vacation:

    ‘Course on the grandiose scale of daily settles across these past 14 years, Gold is looking — well — Grand!  A concern however over Gold at present being nearly +21% above its 300-day moving average is that — historically — such percentage premium (or even higher) leads “on average” to a -8% fall in price within the ensuing 63 trading day, (i.e. one calendar quarter).  In round numbers from here, that’d be a drop of some -270 points; not a prediction, rather just something of which to be aware:

    Next let’s inject a little fun.  (Note:  per the website’s disclaimer and indeed under Monégasque law, we cannot, let alone are we licensed, to make formal trading recommendations).  Rather, the following is merely 100% hindsight from our daily internal work, (and as with all trading studies the following two examples shall eventually morph from profit into loss).  But as we’ve the Market Rhythms page on the website, here are two Gold technical studies which to date have been doing well:  on a 10-test basis ’tis the six-hour MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”), whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the four-hour Parabolics.  “Pure swing consistency” means literally that:  perpetually swinging back and forth on the signals from Long to Short (the latter as we oft quip “being a bad idea” with Gold).  Again as said, these signals eventually will fail, (just as will your ability to sit in front of the trading screen 24-hours per day for months on end):  yet to-date of late they’ve been pretty great … but you’re own your own, mate:

    Still not so great is the Economic Barometer.  Worse, it’s abject decline is compounded by the S&P 500 in absolute ignorance going the wrong way.  (Note the wee rightmost down hook by the S&P:  that accounts for the S&P futures selling off whilst StateSide folks were having their “Friday the 4th” BBQs).

    As to this past week, 12 metrics came into the Econ Baro, of which period-over-period six improved and six weakened.  Highlighting it all was this from the “In Whom Do You Believe Dept.”:  the Bureau of Labor Statistics found June’s Non-Farm Payrolls to have increased, beating consensus, with those for May revised upward; but by ADP’s Employment data, June Jobs actually shrank, missed consensus, and found May revised lower.  You cannot make this stuff up … regardless, the Baro remains way down:

    Near-term, back to Gold we go.  Below on the left are the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date along with the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency, of which now there is very little, such trend having rotated to negative.  And on the right in the 10-day Market Profile (which does not include Friday’s volume as ’tis reserved for Monday’s settle), obviously there is more overhead resistance versus underlying support:

    As for the white metal, at left the trend is still positive, albeit weakening as the “Baby Blues” fall.  But by her Profile at right, Silver appears more supported than does Gold.  ‘Course with the Gold/Silver ratio at 90.1x (the century-to-date average being only 69.1x), Sweet Sister Silver has a Long (pun intended) way to grow:

    Thus as the U.S. concludes its third holiday-shortened trading week of the last six (they’re getting a bit like France in that respect), Monday ’tis back to work right up to Labor Day (01 September).  But for the Econ Baro, next week brings really encouraging news:  just a wee four metrics are due such that the Baro likely doesn’t get bruised.  Thus let the complacency keep all enthused as The Investing Age of Stoopid continues!  Just don’t lose your shoes…

    Dem dogs r’ Gold-Smart!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 815 – (28 June 2025) – “Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 815th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 28 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…“

    Amazing, eh?  ‘Twas but a week ago we cited Gold having come within just four li’l ol’ points of flipping its weekly parabolic Short trend back to Long had 3480 traded.  But it didn’t transpire, nor since did price really rise toward the revised 3476 flip level for this past week.  Which means Gold just completed its seventh week of such Short trend, regardless of price having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3286 and thus still above where it all started at 3220 per the opening back on 19 May.

    However, Gold has now recorded back-to-back down weeks for only the second time during 2025 as we come into mid-year.  As well, ’twas Gold’s sixth down week in the last 10.  Thus year-over-year, here’s how it all looks with 26 weeks of 2025 in the books:

    Indeed at 3286, Gold sits just above our 3262 forecast high for this year, (not that it need be supportive).  Still, ’tis Gold’s lowest weekly settle across these past six.

    And now looms this rather ominous technical study:  a negative weekly MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) crossover, which to the trading/investing community at large is a tool far more visible than our own deMeadville analytics.  Here is the history of that MACD from 2023-to-date.  The good news is given Gold having recorded “nuthin’ but up” through this time frame, the prior such negative crossovers induced relatively little selling of substance, the average price drop having been only -52 points before the MACD’s next swing to positive.  However this new negative crossover appears more pronounced and from a significantly higher oscillative level.  Hat-tip David Cassidy’s LP from ’75:  “The Higher They Climb, The Harder They Fall”:

    On a nearer-term basis, let’s go ’round the horn for Gold inclusive of all eight BEGOS Markets by their daily bars for the last 21 trading days (one month) along with their baby blue dots of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  Note that at present, seven of the grey trendlines are positive:  only that for Gold has just rotated to negative, its “Baby Blues” therein dropping at a precipitous pace.  And as therein reminded  “Follow the Blues…”

    “But mmb, the Dollar is going down; just look above at the Euro and Swissie…”

    ‘Course as Squire knows, Gold plays no currency favourites.  And this year, the Buck has been losing the fiats’ “Ugly Dog Contest” as later exemplified in our wrap.

    Too, May’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expeditures at the “core” level came in hotter (+0.2%) than consensus (+0.1%, as ’twas too for April).  So that, plus the Fed’s being unaware of the plunging Economic Barometer (as we’ll see), likely keeps the Federal Open Market Committee from cutting the Funds Rate per their 30 July Policy Statement.  And yet as we go to the puke-green inflation table for May, whilst the 12-month summation average of +2.4% remains above the FOMC’s preference for +2.0%, May’s annualized readings (all of which — save for the “core” PCE — were just +0.1%) are indicative of inflation cooling.  But as we’ve said in the past, heaven forbid the Fed actually being ahead of the curve.  (At least we are).  Here’s the table:

    On to what the Fed, as noted, apparently doesn’t dread:  the Econ Baro being all but dead.  Yes, throughout the 27-year history of the Baro, there have been worse fallouts; however, they’ve regularly been followed by S&P 500 routs.  Not this time however:  neither the Fed nor the FinMedia nor most investors get it.  Rather, as the economy cringes, the S&P binges.  Reprise:  “Marked-to-market, everybody’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality, nobody’s worth squat” … especially given the S&P’s present market capitalization of $54.2T supported by a liquid StateSide “M2” money supply of but $22.0T.  That’s an “Uh-oh…”  Here’s the Baro:

    Back to Gold, and as (save for one trading day) ’tis month-end, let’s peek at the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold comparable to several top-tier precious metal equities.  So here’s what we’ve got from the bottom up:  Newmont (NEM) is +35%, bettered by Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +40%, Gold itself +42%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +50%, and amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +79%.  ‘Course specific to this one-year time frame, only AEM is exhibiting the notable leverage play whilst the balance of the bunch are merely scattered ’round the yellow metal:

    Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right, wherein both panels echo the same sentiment:  “resistive”.  Still, on a century-to-date basis, the white metal remains the better value per the Gold/Silver ratio at 91.7x.  Were Silver instead priced to the ratio’s average (69.1x), ‘twould today be 47.57 … that’s +33% higher than the actual 35.84 level.  Again we refrain:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”

    Next to Gold’s Structure by the month from the year 2010-to-date.  Again acknowledging one trading day remains in June (the rightmost candle), nonetheless duly note the selling from these last three months’ respective highs, the 3400 level having thus become arduous to maintain:

    To wrap it up, ‘twouldn’t be month-end (less a day) without the BEGOS Markets’ Standings.  And through these six months, our Metals Triumvirate has dominated the podium:  none of the other markets thus far have fared better than fourth position.  For June, swapping the first two spots from May are Gold by Copper, the red metal having just recorded its fourth best week (+4.8%) of the year.  Meanwhile the non-earnings supportive S&P 500 miraculously  clings to a +5.0% gain, oblivious to its pending pain, (yes ’tis coming with a vengeance by any historical means-reversion measure of earnings multiples, the “live” price/earnings ratio at present 44.6x).  Moreover as earlier teased:  pity the poor Dollar!  The Dollar Index is -10.5% through the first half of this year.  That is Dixie’s worst first six months’ percentage drop since coming on line as a futures product 40 years ago!  Again cue the late, great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

                                                             

    But barring anything untoward (i.e. renewed geo-political jitters, an equity market collapse, the inevitable loss of confidence in the financial system), we shan’t be surprised to find Gold working lower through here.  Yet one can buy Gold’s dip to stay financially fit!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 814 – (21 June 2025) – “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 814th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 21 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?“

    Let’s celebrate today’s Summer Solstice (02:42 GMT) with the first sentence from The Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement dated this past Wednesday, 18 June:

    “Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”

    Is that really so?  For as posted yesterday (Friday) on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), the Economic Barometer just reached an oscillative low not seen since 10 September 2009 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  Here ’tis, the Baro and S&P 500 having morphed from being in blissful harmony to comprehensive disconnection:

    Further, following the FOMC’s prior Policy Statement (07 May), 74 metrics have since come into the Econ Baro … with only 28 having improved period-over-period … which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “We’re going the wrong way!” despite the claim of the economy expanding “at a solid pace.”  Doubtless such disparity shan’t be on CNBS, et alia.

    Neither is Gold watching the Baro; otherwise one ought think the yellow metal would be soaring in “the knowledge” that the FOMC must next vote (30 July) to reduce the Funds Rate, further debasing the Dollar as dough then flows more easily through the Fed’s window into the the money supply.  It may be perennially behind the curve, but surely the Fed has the economy mis-read.  And as for the disconnect from the Baro by the S&P 500, has the latter transited from The Investing Age of Stoopid to that of basically brain-dead?  (More on that in our wrap).

    Instead — since the Mid-East conflict ramped up some six trading days ago on 13 June — Gold has been doing exactly what it does during geo-political duress:

    • first it swiftly gains ground;
    • then it all comes back down.

    To wit:  Gold settled Thursday 12 June at 3406.  Said conflict then erupted that Friday and through the weekend such as to find Gold by Monday (16 June) having scampered up to as high as 3476 … only to spend the balance of this past week selling off as is its geo-political wont down yesterday to 3356, a full -50 points lower than before ISR attacked IRN.

    “Sad to say, but these geo-political events look like pretty easy trades, eh mmb?”

    We don’t encourage that nature of risk, Squire, especially as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  But Gold’s geo-political “spikes n’ sinks” regularly pan out, the prime example being back on “911” in 2001.  Gold halted that terror-filled day at 276.  Following the ensuing days of no trading, Gold then worked higher to 296 come 21 September (+7.2%), the largest six-trading-day percentage leap of that year.  Yet a month on, Gold settled all the way back down at 276 on 22 October, the assault on the States “priced in” as if nothing had happened.  Moreover, it took until May of the following year before Gold permanently rose above the 200s.  Certainly more recently we’ve seen Gold “spike n’ sink” over RUS/UKR and now yet again with ISR/IRN, as well as on other examples that we’ve previously documented.

    As to the current case, ’twas somewhat surprising that Gold’s geo-political price spike was not enough to flip the weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long, even as we’d anticipated ‘twould in last week’s piece.  Thus Short remains said stint despite price having settled the week at 3384, still a good +164 points higher than when the trend “officially” began per 19 May’s opening trade at 3220, (i.e. “down” has been “up” as we graphically detailed a week ago).  And so to Gold’s updated weekly bars we go, a sixth red dot having joined the show:

    To be sure, that rightmost weekly bar came ever so close to the 3480 flip level, price reaching to as high as the aforementioned 3476 level … which in turn is the new hurdle for the ensuing week.

    But:  is the Short trend about to become (pardon the pun) elongated?  Per the following two-panel graphic of daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and Sister Silver on the right, we see the baby blue dots beginning to descend.  Mathematically, that means the two respective uptrends have begun to lose their consistency.  And as you regular readers and website viewers well know:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.”  Here’s the graphic:

    Then we’ve this next double-panel view as culled from the website:  the precious metals’ Market Magnets, also for the past three months-to-date.  For both Gold at left and Silver at right, price has just moved beneath Magnet.  The rule in this case is to expect prices to further fall; however, given the on-balance strength of the yellow and white metals from May-to-date, such Magnet penetrations have suffered little downside follow-through.  Regardless, whether for near-term trading or in timing the placement of a broader-term strategy, price’s directional movement vis-à-vis its Magnet is a substantive leading tool.  And in this case with the aforeshown “Baby Blues” beginning to rollover, be thee not surprised to find prices move a little lower:

    Such near-term negativity noted, let’s next check the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  And whereas Gold is exhibiting underlying volume support at both 3361 and 3351 as labeled, we’ve none by this construct for Silver.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!  Too, for both metals, we also denote their overhead volume resistors:

    In sum, a bit more pullback in the precious metals ought not be of much concern, (that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”) even as we’ve key leading indicators that suggest a bit of a near-term a slip.  With 3384 Gold today — a -12% discount to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3827 — price’s best days remain well up the Golden Road.  Indeed, to eclipse the key 3476 level in the new week — and thus flip the weekly trend from Short back to Long — from here is a distance of +92 points.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  151 points.  Clearly doable, especially should another dose of geo-political jitters ensue.  Otherwise, some pullback looks due.

    To close, we query:  “Do you scare easily?”  If you’re invested in equities, the following fearful graphic arguably suggests running for cover.  Recall the disconnect with which we opened between the plunging Econ Baro and the flying S&P 500?  Scary.  More broadly for the S&P, really scary!  Such “Casino 500” today at 5968 is some +33% above the top of the yellow regression channel and the “trailing twelve months” price/earnings ratio of 43.5x essentially double any historical norm, (let alone practically triple Jerome B. Cohen’s “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”).

    As a fine friend said over coffee this morning “Next year’ll be a disaster for the stock market”, to which we quizzically responded “What about next week?”  Scary indeed:

    The good news of course is that all such “scariness” is mitigated given economics no longer have meaning, as neither do earnings.  Employing math is a thing of the past!  Or to reprise what a seasoned investor said to us here back in April:  “Nobody at Goldman [today] has ever experienced a down market.”  Then to close out the FinMedia week came this yesterday from Dow Jones Newswires:  “The Stock Market Has Taken a Lot of Pain for Not Much Gain.”  Look at the top of the above graphic.  They’ve no concept of what market pain is.

    Either way, don’t you get mis-read; get Gold instead!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 813 – (14 June 2025) – “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 813th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 14 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But“

    Gold’s (yes still) ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend was initially triggered on Monday, 12 May upon price trading down through 3243 (at 07:23 GMT).  ‘Twas confirmed by that week’s end, price opening on Monday, 19 May at 3220.  Since then, here is Gold’s continuous contract by the hour, replete with its regression channel:

    Why, even you WestPalmBeachers down there can see that price — rather than falling as is the rule within a Short trend — has instead been rising as is the exception.  However, for some two years, such Short trends have mostly been short-lived, pun intended.

    To wit:  across the past 94 weeks from that ending 01 September 2023 (Gold then 1966) through yesterday (Gold now 3453), 70 weeks have been within Long trends versus just 24 under Short trends.  And Gold having settled this past week as noted at 3453 — by the continuous contract an All-Time Daily & Weekly Closing High — such price is +76% above where ’twas on that date just 22 months ago.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.  Or as we’ve oft quipped and embedded in the above chart:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”

    ‘Course, whilst currency debasement is the primary driver of Gold, ramped-up geo-political jitters again abound, stressed by ISR/IRN on top of both ISR/PSE and RUS/UKR.  Plus later today StateSide come coast-to-coast protests versus the policies of the Executive Branch and its display of military might.

    So with all that in mind, we go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a fifth rightmost Short trend red dot:

    Because this Short trend technically (barely) is still in force, we again acknowledge the 2973-2844 support zone.  Nonetheless, the distance to flip the Short trend back Long is a mere +27 points above here at the 3840 level.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 152 points, (the daily alone now 62 points) the flip ought come quickly, even per an opening up gap on Monday should geo-political tensions escalate through this weekend.  Thus we’re just about there.

    “But as you usually say, mmb, price spikes on geo-politics don’t last very long…”

    True enough, Squire.  Yet should the trend flip to Long in the new week, reflipping it back to Short wouldn’t initially occur until 3123 trades, some -330 points below present price.  More importantly:  an imminent flip to Long puts a fresh All-Time High above 3510 squarely on the near-term table for Gold:  ’tis just +57 points from here.  So much for the Shorts singin’ “I’m struttin’ my stuff, y’all…” –[Elvin Bishop, ’75].  (Albeit we ought not disparage the Shorts as they accommodate taking the other side of the trade).

    Further for those of you scoring at home, through this year’s 24 trading weeks-to-date, Gold is now +31%, this last week’s gain being third-best by both percentage (+3.7%) and points (+122 points) as depicted in the above graphic.  Too, per the website’s “Gold” and “Market Rhythms” pages, Gold’s best Rhythm through its last ten iterations from 03 April-to-date has been the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) on price’s eight-hour series.  (But try not to get carried away).

    If anything ought be carried away (on a stretcher) ’tis the Economic Barometer.  As herein penned a week ago:  “…the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years…”

    Still, we’ve this from the “Taking the Good with the Bad Dept.”:  as the economy by the Baro is slowing — indeed outright shrinking — inflation for May as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooled; (May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE is not due until 27 June).  Thus the “s” word “stagflation” is not (as yet?) being made “officially” apparent, even if ’tis evident by your own personal engagement in commerce.  We certainly sense it:  the base cost of our triannual purchase of popping corn from the States (as ever so detailed in Gold Update No. 803 from this past 05 April) just increased +10.1% before shipping, tariff and value-added tax.  Yet at least The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June reached a three-month high, (but we can’t see why):

    ‘Course the true sentiment gainers — certainly so of late — are the precious metals.  Below we’ve the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The baby blues depicting day-to-day trend consistency have spritely leapt higher for both metals in recent weeks.  Regardless, in just the past few days, the yellow metal has garnered more of a geo-political bid than has the white metal, (lest we forget that in the week prior, Sweet Sister Silver gained +9.4% as opposed to just +0.5% for Gold).  Either way, both look great, all told:

    Too, life is good near Profile highs.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) we’ve their price ranges for the past fortnight as depicted by volume, the most heavily traded levels as labeled, and the white bars being Friday’s respective settles:

    And so toward the wrap here’s The Gold Stack:  what can be better than that?

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3825
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3480
    10-Session directional range:  up to to 3467 (from 3314) = +153 points or +4.6%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  none per the Profile
    Gold Currently:  3453, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  62 points)
    Trading Support:  notables by the Profile 3445 / 3399 / 3380 / 3351
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3385
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2721 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Come this Wednesday (18 June), the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its next Policy Statement.  Expectations call for the FOMC voting to continue maintaining the target range for its Funds Rate at 4.25%-to-4.50% regardless of the faltering Econ Baro and Q1 annualized GDP shrinkage of -0.2%.  However as you no doubt recall, the bugaboo coupled to that latter figure was the Q1 Chain Deflator of +3.7% … Ouch!  May’s inflation may have cooled, but given economic shrinkage, is there still stagflation linkage?  Perhaps rather than order popcorn by the pack, we ought do so by the pallet…

    …and thus keep more Gold and Silver in the wallet!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 812 – (07 June 2025) – “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 812th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 07 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show“

    We simply must start with the spotlight on Silver:  Sweet Sister Silver!  As if shot out of a cannon this past Monday, Silver swiftly soared, by Wednesday reaching 36.27 — a level not having traded in better than 13 years (since 29 February 2012) — then onward to as high yesterday (Friday) as 36.51 before settling the week at 36.13  Just like that!

    Oh how many times through hundreds of missives have we stressed “Do NOT forget the Silver!”  For when Silver goes, she GOES!

    A stellar week indeed for Sister Silver.  Through now 1,275 trading weeks of the 21st century, this past weekly net gain of +9.4% was Silver’s 21st best, (the largest weekly net gain being +17.4% for that ending 27 March 2020 as COVID closed the globe).  And year-to-date, Silver is now +23.4%, within our Metals Triumvirate having passed Copper +20.1%, atop which Gold still leads +26.2%.

    But wait, there’s more:  for relative to Gold, Silver still remains cheap as we turn to the daily Gold/Silver ratio for these past 25 calendar years.

    And as you can therein see, the Gold/Silver ratio (now 92.2x) periodically returns to its evolving average (69.1x), at which today we’d find the white metal +33% higher at 48.22 versus the present price of 36.13.  Effectively as a rule of thumb, a ratio above 80x generally leads to higher Silver prices.

    “But a decline in gold without silver going up can also bring the ratio down, mmb…”

    Unlike the balance of the modern-day financial world, Squire does math.  And were Gold fundamentally overvalued, we’d be on the lookout for such declining ratio impetus.  To be sure, technically Gold remains in a weekly parabolic Short trend.  But by the de facto driver that is Dollar debasement, Gold today at 3331 is -13% undervalued per the opening Scoreboard’s implied 3824 level.  So let Silver also rise to the occasion.

    Still as noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short, price on balance lying low for the week in posting a net gain of just +0.5%, overwhelmed by Silver’s aforementioned +9.4% net gain.  In fact as a rare graphical bonus, here are Sister Silver’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date and — contra to Gold’s parabolic trend being Short — hers is Long per the three rightmost blue dots:

    In turning now to Gold’s weekly bars, the Short trend thus far actually “appears” up even as the rightmost red parabolic dots are in decline.  Yet price nevertheless has sported three “higher lows” in a row:

    Regardless, Gold intra-week had been up as much as +3.5% before basically “…giving it all away…”  –[Roger Daltery, ’73].  Thus the Short trend continues from which an ascent up through 3487 in the new week would initiate a new Long streak.  Such level is +156 points higher from here, which is not that unrealistic as Gold’s expected weekly trading range is presently 151 points.  But should the Short trend stubbornly persist, we remain mindful of the underlying 2973-2844 support zone as maintained on the above graphic.  Either way, for these past five days, the spotlight has shown upon Sweet Sister Silver per her cumulative percentage track versus that for Gold:

    ‘Course, doing all it can to avoid the spotlight is the Economic Barometer.  This past Wednesday, the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years — since 14 September 2009 — the StateSide economy then arduously trying to recovery from the depths of the FinCrisis.  And today, the Baro’s divergence from the happy-go-lucky-stuck-on-stoopid “Casino 500” stands as stark as perhaps we’ve ever seen (barring our clawing back through 27 years of Baro/S&P data).  Have a view, should you’ve the stomach to so do:

    But not to worry!  Rather, ’tis all OK!  Out of the Bond and into the S&P, “Olé!”  Hat-tip Bloomy yesterday, post-May Payrolls data:  “…Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth, prompting traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year … Jobs Surprise…”  Seriously?  “Jobs Surprise”?  Let’s see:  according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Non-Farm Payrolls” growth slowed from 147k in April — itself revised lower from 177k — to 139k in May.  Isn’t that going the wrong way?

    “But it beat the 130k consensus, mmb…”

    Ah yes, that’s it, Squire:  consensii are more important than reality.  Further, the pace of Hourly Earnings doubled from +0.2% to +0.4%.  So:  job growth is slowing and wages are rising.  Very much akin to the just revised read for Q1 Productivity:  it decreased -1.5% … but Unit Labor Costs increased +6.6%.  Remember the “S” word?  “Stagflation“?   “Got Gold? … Got SILVER?”

    Let’s next look first to Silver as we go to her two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  From 07 April’s low of 27.55 to this past week’s high at 36.51 is a 42-trading-day (two months) gain of +32.5%:  impressive!  Note the Profile’s dominant volume support areas of 34.65 and 33.40-33.25:

    Then second there’s Gold… good ol’ Gold!  By the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency (below left), Gold understandably lacks that of Silver; however, price’s gain across the three-month panel, too, is impressive!  A bit more daunting though is Gold’s Profile (below right) depicting notable volume resistance from 3380 up to 3399.  And we not be reminded that Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend still is in force:

    All-in-all, a stunning and well-overdue super week for Silver.  And again, relative to Gold, Silver is still a bargain.  But the inexorable passage of time marches ever onward, the ensuing week’s StateSide highlights being both retail and wholesale inflation readings for May.  Consensii for the Consumer Price Index sense same or an uptick from April’s pace, whilst the Producer Price Index is expected to have swung from DEflationary back to inflationary.  We therefore graphically query:

     

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 811 – (31 May 2025) – “Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 811th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 31 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall“

    Is Gold in a weekly parabolic Short trend?  Yes.  Indeed, have four of the past six weeks been net down for Gold?  Yes.  Including this last one?  Yes.  Even with +27 points of fresh August premium just added to present price?  Yes.

    Yet with August Gold settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3313, price nonetheless is +162 points above that contract’s 3151 low of two weeks ago.  To be sure, Gold just completed its third week of this relatively new parabolic Short trend; but overall, price’s fall from the 22 April All-Time High of 3510 (basis June) appears more as a stall.  Let’s start with the weekly bars of Gold’s “continuous contract” from one year ago-to-date, (the August-only contract changes as noted in the right-hand margin):

    As to the depicted 2973-2844 structural support area, we feel it prudent to maintain that zone on the weekly graphic during the continuance of this Short trend, be there a more material price fall rather than merely this transitory stall.  For after all, Gold now at 3313 remains priced at a discount (-13%) to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3823.  Still, demonstrably it can take years if not decades for price to catch up.  ‘Course, the 18-month $1.5T dip in the StateSide “M2” money supply from $22.1T (18 April ’22) down to $20.6T (30 October ’23) allowed Gold to catch up a bit during that stint by some +6%.

    Moreover:  given the the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $52.0T being supported by today’s “M2” liquidity level of “just” $21.9T — upon it all going wrong and the Federal Reserve being called upon to “make up the difference” — the bid for Gold shall be impressive, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the price shall skyrocket).

    And indeed year-to-date, Gold has already put on quite a fireworks display, running up and away from the pack of the other BEGOS Markets as we turn to their standings by percentage change through these first five months of 2025, the Metals Triumvirate yet again populating the podium:

    Note therein the S&P 500 being barely above water (+0.5%) to this point.  Currently 5912, the mighty Index is but -4.6% below Goldman Sach’s trimmed target of 6200.  But as we’ve ad nauseam gone on, sustaining a price/earnings ratio of now 46.8x with a wee yield of 1.305% versus the U.S. three-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.232% is delusionary.  (Unless the Treasury defaults, in which case the stock market would not crash; rather ‘twould simply close … until at least, again, the Fed “makes up the difference”).  Got Gold?

    Next we’ve got Gold’s percentage track from one year ago-to-date along with those of highly visible precious metals equities.  Ranking from worst-to-first, they presently are Pan American Silver (PAAS) +8%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +21%, Newmont (NEM) +24%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +40%, Gold itself +42%,  and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +71%.  Some might query why the equities haven’t (with the exception of AEM) outpaced Gold’s year-over-year +42% gain; but obviously it all depends upon from what point in time the measurements start.  Regardless, the graphic does exhibit the leverage of the equities being far more oscillative than the track of Gold itself … which for those of you scoring at home emphasizes the importance of timing one’s equity trades:

    Speaking of time, did you spend some pouring over the Federal Open Market Committee’s 06/07 May meeting minutes?  This again caught our eye:  “…economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace … inflation remained somewhat elevated…”  Why an eye-catcher?  Because by our math, the Economic Barometer since mid-February notably has been weakening, and inflation (as reported) cooling toward more Fed-friendly levels.

    Let’s first look to the latter per our inflation summary for April via the usual six measures.  To be sure, the 12-month summations of each element are basically atop the Fed’s +2.0% target (red backgrounds).  But take note of April alone as annualized:  yes, the Consumer Price Index came in a bit warm; however the more-leading Producer Price Index was DEflationary.  Further the “Fed-favoured” gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures — again annualizing only that for April — was well-below target.  The FOMC’s next Policy Statement is scheduled for 18 June.  “To cut?  Or not to cut?”  ‘Twill be the question:

    And second let’s go to the Econ Baro, for which — of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics — only four improved period-over-period.  The Gold Star goes to April’s marked increase in Personal Income, the +0.8% gain being the best since that of January 2024;  but the Pyrite Pooper is awarded to April’s Pending Home Sales, the -6.3% shrinkage the worst since the same month a year ago.  And thus here’s the Baro:

    Meanwhile, it being month-end, ’tis time to go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the past 21 trading days, replete with their respective grey trendlines and “Baby Blues” of each trend’s day-to-day consistency.   Gold’s trendline has nearly rotated from negative back to positive, but again, there’s that darn weekly parabolic Short trend with which to contend.  However, more daunting in the graphic are the blue dots for the S&P 500 (SPOO futures) which are dropping by the day even as the Index struggles to gain some traction.  Oh yes, the S&P’s trend remains up, but we regard last Thursday as a “failure day” for the futures:  after having being up intra-day a very robust +1.4%, they gave it all back and then some, settling in the red, with further fallout into Friday.  So for the S&P ’tis up with the trend but down with the Blues … someone’s got to lose:

    Now let’s assess the 10-Market Profiles of the precious metals.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), price is presently beneath the most heavily-traded apices in the respective panels.  And as labeled, Gold’s most dominant overhead resistor is 3321 (basis the current August “front month” contract) whilst for Silver ’tis 33.35:

    So with May in the books we next look at Gold’s Structure by the month across these past 16 years.  And therein note our friend vehemently making reference toward the rightmost candle for May:  ’tis a “doji”, which in Japanese candlestick charting means price’s period was both — indeed nearly equally — higher and lower, only to close basically back where it started.  By Gold’s August contract, May’s first trade was at 3329 and last trade just -16 points lower at 3313, even as the month’s high-to-low range spanned 326 points.  So what is the analytical interpretation of a “doji”?

    “That the trend is about to change, mmb.”

    So ’tis said, Squire.  Thus in this “doji” case, given that Gold more broadly has been going up — by process of elimination — a trend change would be to down.  ‘Tis quite a bit of near-term conflict for Gold:  price had been flying, yet more recently stalling rather than materially falling, but the weekly parabolic Short trend remains calling.  Again, mind Gold’s aforeshown 2973-2844 support structure.  As to “The Now”, here’s Gold’s magnificent picture:

    And just like that, five months of 2025 already are gone.  Or as a fine friend over in the States is wont to say, as we age:  “It goes quickly.”

    But back in the late 18th century, the sixth President of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (one Benjamin Franklin) lived to be 84 years of age, far more than double the male longevity expectancy of then just 36 years.  And “quickly” or otherwise, ol’ Ben is still going in continuing to grace the face of today’s $100 Federal Reserve Note.  ‘Course in 1928, he already was on the Treasury’s $100 Bill, which as a Gold Certificate was thereto redeemable.  In those days, Gold was fairly fixed-priced at $20.67/ounce, the $100 Bill thus convertible into 137 grams of Gold…

    …whereas today’s $100 fetches less than one gram, (0.85 grams or 0.03 ounces).

    Therefore:  a lot can happen in less than 100 years.  Shall your potentially centenarian children have enough to survive a century?  Reprise:  “Got Gold?“

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 810 – (24 May 2025) – “Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 810th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 24 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts“

    Assuming one is a Gold Bull, this past week was as good as it gets after having commenced a new parabolic Short trend:  instead of declining, Gold posted a weekly gain of +4.8% (+152 points) in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3358, an All-Time Weekly Closing High.  Sorry Shorts.  ‘Tis why we’ve quipped ad nauseam over these many years that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.

    “But mmb, last week you showed Gold targeting support down into the 2900s…”

    Squire, ‘twould be sheer folly not to at least be wary of Gold testing its 2973-2844 structural support zone as herein depicted a week ago.  Recall how relentlessly up was Gold back in the year 2011 as it cleared the price of 1900 for the first time?  “Nuthin but Gold!” was the clarion cry … price subsequently dropping -45.6% into the end of 2015.  (Indeed our writing back in 2010-2011 that “Gold has gotten ahead of itself” was ubiquitous understatement).

    The good news however is that today Gold is not ahead of itself.  Per the above opening Scoreboard, Gold now at 3358 is priced at a -14% discount to its Dollar debasement valuation of 3891.

    Regardless, weekly parabolic Short trends are “a regular course of doing business” with Gold.  To be sure, the Shorts were brazenly boffed this past week.  But ’tis far too early to rule out testing the aforementioned 2973-2844 support area as again shown via Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, despite the Shorts having initially been turned upside down even as a second red dot appears:

    Again, as stated, Gold just recorded an All-Time Weekly Closing High (3358), still shy of its All-Time Daily Closing High (3442) and All-Time Intraday High (3510).  As regards the +4.8% weekly price gain, it ranks 34th-best through the 1,274 trading weeks century-to-date.  More immediately though, the requisite price in the ensuing week to flip the Short trend back to Long is 3502 — which actually is “in range” — given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 155 points, (that being bidirectional, ‘natch).

    Fundamentally, two forces fused by the FinMedia figured for Gold’s favouring across this past week: 

    • Moody’s “late to the party” StateSide credit downgrade toward the end of the prior week; and
    • Trump’s “order then suggestion” for a 50% tariff on Euro goods come 01 June, in concert with a 25% “bite of the Apple”.

    In turn, so succumbed the Dollar, Bond and S&P 500, whilst the balance of our BEGOS Markets basically got the bid.  And therein, Gold has crossed back above its smooth valuation as we next see:

    ‘Course, from the critical “Cash Management Dept.”, with respect to price having crossed above its BEGOS valuation, we shan’t wantonly ignore Gold’s aforeshown weekly parabolic Short trend.  As cited a week ago, our sense of the Moody’s downgrade was already well  “…’priced in’ to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement…”.  And as to the Tariff Sheriff, the President still abides by “The Art of the Deal” –[Random House, ’87] in going for the whole enchilada such as to at least savour a few satisfactory bites.

    “So how does that affect Gold, mmb?”

    Squire, it doesn’t preclude Gold from going straight up; but likely it shan’t given the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend is only two weeks thus far in duration.  Indeed since the year 2001, Gold has recorded one weekly Short trend of only two weeks, and rightly so:  just prior to COVID, Gold embarked on a weekly Short trend, only to be dramatically catapulted upward upon the announcement of the closure of the world, price then leaping +8.6% for the following week.  In other words, in a week’s time from today, we’d expect such Gold trend still to be Short.  But how lovely ‘twould be if we are wrong.

    As to the Economic Barometer, ’tis on balance been going wrong since 19 February (67 trading days ago).  Of the 153 metrics having subsequently entered the Baro, only 60 of them (39%) have improved period-over-period:  “…we’re going the wrong way…” –[Steve Martin, ‘Planes, Trains and Automobiles’, Paramount, ’87].

    So come 18 June, does the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote to nudge its Bank’s Funds Rate down a notch?  Let’s first see what the Bureau of Economic Analysis records for April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures next Friday; such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge was flat for March.  Here’s the Baro:

    But then there’s the “Big Beautiful Bill” … “That’ll be a thrill.”  –[Thelma Ritter, ‘Boeing Boeing’, Paramount, ’65].  (Stayed tuned to your local affiliate for breaking news).

    Meanwhile, breaking back up since 15 May is our Gold, albeit within the broader context of the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend, (which again we ‘spect shan’t just yet meet its end).  Still, in turning to the dual-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, this past week’s group of “Baby Blues” rose as their foundational regression trend rotated toward positive; such becomes confirmed upon their eclipsing up through the 0% axis, (which you can follow daily at the website).  As for the Profile, the low 3300s appear initially supportive, followed by the dominant trading volume price of 3235:

    Next we’ve the like graphic for Silver, her “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (below left) having just pierced above their 0% axis, whilst her volume support in the Profile (below right) ranges from the mid-33s down into the mid-32s.  As to the Gold/Silver ratio now 99.8x, priced to the evolving average (from 2001-to-date) of 69.0x would see Silver +45% higher at 48.64 (vs. her present 33.64 level).  ‘Course by now, you’ve already really “Got Silver!” right?  (Upon the 4 August 1964 release of the depicted Kinks hit, the price of Sister Silver was $1.29/oz.  Thus today, she’s higher by +2,508% … just in case you’re scoring at home):

    So in a nugget:  Gold’s daily trend is up within a weekly trend that is down.  And during the ensuing holiday-shortened trading week come 11 metrics for the Econ Baro, included as noted “Fed-favoured” inflation data per the PCE.  Where shall Gold be, let alone the S&P?  To speak fundamentally, the former remains undervalued whilst the latter severely overvalued.  (So much for the ol’ “EMH” Efficient Market Hypothesis).  For today, less yield (S&P 1.321%) is better than more yield (T-Bill 4.230%).  “But Gold is yield-less!” they say.  And yet ‘from 2001, ’tis outperformed the S&P (including dividends) by nearly three times!  Gold wins.

    Speaking of sports, tomorrow (Sunday) is race day here.  Hat-tip Steinmetz Diamonds:  how about a Gold, diamond-encrusted F1 car?

    Whereas in racing ’tis best not to venture beyond the edge of adhesion, go for the Gold with all due reason!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 809 – (17 May 2025) – “As Expected, Gold Rejected”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 809th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 17 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “As Expected, Gold Rejected“

    Per our post on ‘X’ (@deMeadvillePro) this past Monday, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short, and was so confirmed by the week’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 3205, a full -305 points (-8.7%) below price’s All-Time High of 3510 set this past 22 April, a mere 18 trading days ago.

    ‘Course —  as you regular readers know — despite all the otherwise bullish Gold hysteria out there — we “alone” (‘twould seem) have been anticipating through these past two weeks such Long trend coming to its end given one of the world’s oldest sciences which we dutifully employ:  math, (a tool sadly lost on today’s financial “experts”).

    Thus, this begs we straightaway go to Gold’s Long trend end via the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the encircled red dot heralding the start of the new Short trend:

     

    This latest Long trend lasted 16 weeks, (which ties for 13th in duration since the year 2001).  But more importantly as to “How low is low?”, as above shown we’ve a structural support zone spanning from 2973 down to 2844, the midpoint of which (2908) is -297 points below today’s 3205 level, i.e. some -9% lower.

    Indeed, across Gold’s 52 previous parabolic Short trends century-to-date, the average price adversity is -7.8%:  thus a -9% decline from here wouldn’t be that untoward; (’tis not a prognostication, rather an “ought not be surprising” consideration).  To be sure, that’s all technically talking.  Whereas, in fundamentally forecasting, price broadly still has significant upside in its balance per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

    “And maybe it goes straight back up ’cause Moody’s just downgraded U.S. credit, mmb!”

    They’ve just figured that out now, Squire?  Fitch so did two years ago, (let alone Standard & Poor’s away back in 2011, following which the price of Gold fell for four years!)  ‘Tis on occasion quipped that “The Fed is behind the curve”; Moody’s apparently can’t even find the curve.

    Moreover:  you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right ’round the world knows that were U.S. debt graded as that for a publicly-held company, today’s “multiple As” might more realistically be a “single “B”, if not down in the “Cs”.  Ah, but StateSide “full faith and credit” mitigates any notion of (heaven forbid) “junk”.  At least so far.

    Regardless, debt is a key driver of currency debasement (i.e. more is printed — as more and more is needed — to service more debt).  Thus we believe current credit grades — and to an extent future downgrades  — are to an extent already “priced in” to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement, which again per the Scoreboard now broadly values the yellow metal at 3887, some +21% above the present 3205 level.

    As to our recent expecting of Gold’s rejecting, we’ve merely been watching the math via the website’s near-term BEGOS valuation for Gold.  Back on 21 April during this most recent upside deviation, Gold was priced some +440 points above such valuation.  Yet we herein remained ever-remindful that price inevitably reverts to its mean (in this case the BEGOS derived valuation, which itself rightly is rising).  And indeed such means reversion was completed per this past Wednesday’s settle as we next see:

    “But crossing under that line also is another down signal, right mmb?”

    Absolutely, Squire, that is the rule of thumb for each of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500)  But specific to our yellow metal as we always caution:  “Shorting Gold is a BAD idea!”  Further by the above graphic, the downside penetrations from a year ago-to-date have not garnered much follow-through. Or as a StateSide friend and trading colleague used to say:  “They went Short Gold, but they ain’t around anymore.”  Still with the weekly parabolic trend having now flipped to Short, lower prices at least for a bit make sense through here.

    Speaking too of lower, so is the recent track of the Economic Barometer.  The past week’s data barrage of 19 incoming metrics recorded just seven that improved period-over-period.  Notably therein, April’s wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index was clearly DEflationary per both its headline and core readings.  But hardly was that the case for retail inflation (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there directly affects you) as the pace of the Consumer Price Index quickened after having been flat for March.

    So exactly what is the data-compiling Department of Labor Statistics telling us?  That by the CPI the cost of April living rose, but that by the more leading PPI the States are experiencing cheaper living now in May?  Or are we simply stagflating away?  Is your employer thus poised to raise your pay?  But they’re not doing as much business, they say?  Either way, here’s the Baro from a year ago through today:

    And duly note therein the quip about the Baro once having led the S&P 500, as reliably it did for some 22 years from inception in 1998 to 2020.  But then:  add $7T “for the effects of COVID” to the StateSide money supply (“M2” basis), it all fungibly ending up in the S&P, which in turn has doubled without the requisite earnings support, and thus our “live” price/earnings ratio has skyrocketed from its developmental level back in 2013 of 25.4x to today’s quite real — but ridiculous — 46.3x.  ‘Twould seem nobody wants triple the annualized yield afforded by the U.S. Three-Month T-Bill (4.237%) because the S&P’s yield of 1.303% is deemed better (per this Investing Age of Stoopid).  ‘Course, stocks never go down, so it all makes sense.

    Fortunately, far more sensible is precious metals ownership.  Let’s assess this century-to-date:  the S&P 500 has gone from 1320 to now 5958 for a pre-dividend gain of +351%; add ’em in and the total return is in the +415% neighbourhood, so pretty good.  But then there’s terribly lagging Silver (vis-à-vis Gold) nonetheless +599% across the same stint.  So there ya go.  Oh yes, and Gold itself?  +1,071%.  (Editor’s Note:  Bitcoin began basically at $0, so such return-to-date is immeasurably infinite, just in case you’re scoring at home).

    Again however per our missive’s title, “As Expected, Gold Rejected”, we next view our two-panel graphic featuring Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right.  Our baby blue dots of trend consistency as ever provide shining guidance.  For as therein stated in black and blue:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” as further affirmed by Sister Silver.  ‘Tis why we turned off CNBS et alia a million years ago.  Here you go:

    Understand, naturally, that directionally brilliant as are the “Baby Blues”, per the deMeadville home page:  “…there is no ‘holy grail’ in this business…”, meaning that cash management is everything.  And helpful to that end are the website’s 10-day Market Profiles as next shown below for both Gold (at left) and Silver (at right).  The labeled apices are those prices featuring the dominant levels of volume; as such, they better determine the key areas of price’s support and resistance, as updated daily:

    To sum it all up as Gold works down, we wrap with the stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3887
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3510
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3442 (06 May 2025)
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3287
    Trading Resistance:  notable Profile apices 3239 / 3322 / 3345 / 3394
    Gold Currently:  3205, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  90 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3186
    10-Session directional range:  down to 3125 (from 3444) = -319 points or -9.3%
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2649 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    So yes as expected, Gold is getting rejected.      But be thee not dejected!  For far higher levels remain projected!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

     

    The Gold Update: No. 808 – (10 May 2025) – “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 808th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)“

    Our missive’s title is ever so suitable for parsing… So let’s go!

    Part Un:  “Gold Regains Ground” for indeed it did in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3329 for a net weekly rise of +82 points (+2.5%).  Heaven forbid price instead have suffered a third consecutive down week!  Why, that hasn’t happened since those ending the 1st, 8th and 15th of November last year!

    Part Deux:  “(albeit Stumbles Around…)” for after reaching as high as 3448 on Wednesday — up +201 points (+6.2%) into mid-week — selling then ensued such as to settle Gold at the noted 3329, which all-in-all is now -181 points (-5.2%) below the All-Time High of 3510 recorded back on 22 April.

    “And it made a record down move for an up week, right mmb?”

    Spot on, Squire.  Thus far in this 21st century-to-date there have been 1,271 trading weeks of which 708 (56%) have settled net up for Gold.  And the record to which Squire refers is based specifically on points lost from the intra-week high to the end-of-week settle:  Gold went down -119 points from Wednesday’s high in nonetheless finishing net up for the week.  More realistically on a percentage basis, the high-to-settle drop of -3.5% still ranks 12th-worst for an up week so far this century, and by those -119 points, the worst for an up week since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71.

    Thus in reprising our entitled query of a week ago:  “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?” we sense that the up week’s record setting high-to-settle points loss sensibly suggests that Gold has — for the present — run out of puff.  Further as we turn to Gold’s valuation per our proprietary BEGOS Markets measuring, price today remains +157 points “high” above the smooth line as shown here:

    Moreover, Gold also is at this century’s record for the number of consecutive trading days in having settled above said smooth valuation line:  86, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is better than four months).  The previous record of 75 trading days was set in both 2024 and 2019.  So to say this great Gold rally has become “a bit long in the tooth” arguably is reasonable, despite it being magnificent that Gold has been garnering long-overdue notice.

    Still, specific to this past intra-week’s points plunge, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  And as therein stated, the red portion of the rightmost bar is the largest points drop for any up week in Gold’s history; (yes the intra-week drop two weeks prior was worse, but ’twas a net down week).  As for the still ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend, ‘twould come to an end should 3243 be eclipsed (“just” -86 points from here) in the new week:

    Too, in looking at Gold’s settles by the day across some 15 years, price has gotten quite far afield from its traditionally “guardian” 300-day moving average, such deviation at present being +699 points above the next graphic’s blue line.  But by percentage distance, price is “only” +26.6% above that average; the record is +47.4% exactly 19 years ago on 11 May 2006, Gold then priced at 722, from which by mid-year it fell -24%.  Yes, Virginia, price retreats do happen, (oft when all around are bullish):

    As to the lowlight of last week, the Federal Reserve did its present posture preserve.  For in line with consensus, the Open Market Committee maintained its Bank’s Funds Rate in the 4.25%-to-4.50% target range.  But for those of you who diligently follow the deMeadville website and The Gold Update, you must have been rather startled by what the Fed said, as culled from the opening paragraph of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement that we’ve embedded below in the Econ Baro:

    “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace”?  Look above at the Baro’s blue line since February.  And as rightly forecast by the Fed’s own Sixth District Atlanta branch, we already knew back on 30 April the initial read of annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product was negative.

    “Inflation remains somewhat elevated“?  Recall from last week’s missive the summary table of March’s inflation paces?  Not only were they disinflationary, but some were DEflationary!  Perhaps the Fed sees March as a “one off”:  to be sure, 12-month inflation through March still averaged +2.6%, effectively in excess of the Fed’s desired +2.0% target.  Let’s see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has in the coming week for April’s Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday):  consensii expect a pickup in inflation’s pace.

    Meanwhile, losing upside pace is Gold.  Clearly this is evident in the left-hand panel below of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date.  Whilst the baby blues dots are still above their 0% axis — indicative that price’s trend remains up — their contrarily being in descent denotes the consistency of the uptrend as breaking down.  As for Gold’s 10-day Market Profile in the right-hand panel, the “line in the sand” price to hold is 3322:

    Silver’s picture is quite similar.  Her trend (on the left) is positive, but like that for Gold is losing consistency as her “Baby Blues” too have begun to fold.  And as to her 10-Day Market Profile (on the right), price at present (32.88) is not too far from her most volume-dominant supporter at 32.60.  ‘Course, relative to Gold, Sweet Sister Silver remains considerably cheap per the Gold/Silver ratio now 101.3x versus the century-to-date average of just 69.0x:

    In sum, its emotive hype aside, we still anticipate a bit lower Gold near-term; (indeed a most-valued colleague here suggested yesterday — over a delightful rosé — that 2400 is in the offing).  That’s a bit out of range (-24%) from our perspective; however, Gold obviously has corrected by at least such percentage, notably during 2006-to-2008, certainly so post-2011’s All-Time High through 2015, as well as during 2019-to-2020.  ‘Tis merely what the world’s major liquid financial markets on occasion do.

    Next week also brings the calendar conclusion to Q1 Earnings Season, which to this point for the S&P 500 constituents is “average” for year-over-year quarterly improvement.  ‘Course as you saw earlier in the Economic Barometer, the S&P 500’s price/earning ratio is an inane 43.0x.  Thus earnings are on balance improving, but their overall level remains far too low to continue supporting price; (how’s that 1.359% annualized dividend yield workin’ out for ya?)

    And specific to the Econ Baro, a huge load of 19 metrics are scheduled for the ensuing week.  Shall the Baro live up to the Fed’s “solid pace” perception of the economy?  As ever, we’ll mind the math…

    …whilst you, rather than stumble around,  mind — indeed mine — your Gold and Silver fine!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 807 – (03 May 2025) – “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 807th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?“

    Apropos of this missive’s title — and with the year’s first quadrimester (plus two May trading days) already in the books — let’s start with another of our infamous Gold Quizzes.  Ready?

    In settling yesterday, (Friday) at 3247, Gold completed its 18th trading week of the year with a net weekly loss — as just was the case in the 17th week!  Thus, prior to this:

    • When was the last time Gold recorded two consecutive down weeks?

    “Oh that one’s easy, mmb!  Not since last year!”

    My dear Squire, such quiz is directed toward our highly-valued audience, rather than be front-run in-house.  Still, in this instance,  “A Man for All Seasons” –[Columbia, ’66], is not Sir Thomas More, but indeed Sir Squire.  Let’s simply add some specificity to his statement:

    Through these 18 weeks of 2025, Gold has recorded but four that were net down.  However, three of those down weeks are amongst the past five, even within which price has made a weekly “higher-high” four times.  And to answer the quiz:  Gold’s last two consecutive down weeks were the last two weeks of 2024.

    To be sure, in 2025, Gold has had a great run … but is it finally done?  By our opening Gold Scoreboard, Gold today at 3247 is -16% below its Dollar debasement value of 3879.  Still, price — with only a third of this year having passed — has already traced 117% of its expected yearly trading range.  Yet hardly ought that be surprising given Gold’s great breakout.  But as you regular readers well know, the year’s high (thus far?) at 3510 elicited an ever-so extensive stretch above our BEGOS Markets’ valuation for Gold.  And it remains the case — even as price is reverting to said valuation — that Gold remains relatively +158 points “high” (at 3247) to such reversion destination (at 3029).  Yet clearly that valuation itself is rightly rising each day:

    Bespoke of the BEGOS Markets, Gold firmly finds itself at the top of the table as we turn to the Standings year-to-date.  And has been the case throughout, all three podium positions comprise our Metals Triumvirate.  But therein note Silver remaining woefully undervalued relative to Gold.  In 2025, Gold so far is +23.0% and Copper +16.8%:  so ought Silver at least be between those two (given the tug of war over her being both a precious metal as well as one that is industrial) rather than “only” +9.9%?  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is again 100.9x relative to its century-to-date evolving average of now 69.0x.  By our expertise to reprise, priced to said ratio today places Silver (instead of at her current 32.18 level) +46% higher at 47.09.  Might Silver thus be “the easiest Long trade” for the foreseeable future?  We eloquently answer:  “Well DUH!”

    Specific to Gold and its three down weeks in the last five, let’s go to the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date.  We’ve highlighted in red all four down weeks recorded so far in 2025.  Moreover, note the rightmost parabolic Long trend blue dot:  should Gold break below 3209 in the ensuing week, such trend shall flip to Short.  Obviously such flip price is well within range (just -38 points below here) given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is presently 83 points, let alone the “expected weekly trading range” now a whopping 140 points(!)  The Golden wave of euphoria has Long been waving; but from here it may be Short-lived, barring a basically “straight-up” week in the offing; else Gold’s great run — at least for the present — may well be done:

    Naturally it being month-end and two trading days into May, ’tis time to bring up the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with several tip-tier precious metal equities.  From least-to-most we below see Newmont (NEM) +27%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) +28%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Gold itself +39%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +42%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%.  (Were you in the S&P 500 from a year ago, your dividend-inclusive gain is +15% … even as you’re behind this year … oh dear):

    Further for the precious metals, here next are the 10-day Market Profliles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  With present prices for the yellow and white metals all but at the bottom of their respective Profiles, both have taken a bit of a beat-down.  Either way, as crooned the darling duo Sonny & Cher back in ’67, “The beat goes on…”:

    Although having turned lower near-term, the primary driving source for the on-balance rise in the precious metals — certainly century-to-date — and arguably (albeit erratically) so through the last three decades of the 20th century, is of course currency debasement, the eminent element therein being inflation.  Simply stated for those of you scoring at home, the more there is of something (Dollars), the less each is worth, and thus the more that must be tendered in monetary transactions; (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is why your Big Macs cost so much).  As through the month of March, we’ve now all the data for our inflation summary as follows:

    So you know where this is going given the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee issues their next Policy Statement come Wednesday (07 May).  By the above summary’s 12-Month Summation column, every metric is above the Fed’s desired inflation pace of +2.0%.  But annualizing March’s data alone — on average — is DEflationary!  How reasonable is that for rate relief?  After all, your cost of living went down in March, non?

     “My usual stuff actually cost more, mmb…”

    Oh say it ain’t so, Squire.  But to his point, we are more frequently seeing the “S” word stagflation in the FinMedia mix.  Thus is the economy retreating even as prices “in reality” are rising?  Hat-tip the Atlanta Fed which predicted negative Q1 Gross Domestic Product, the initial reading for which came in at an annualized -0.3% — yet the chain deflator was a very inflative +3.7%!  Stagflation indeed!

    As for the Economic Barometer, of the 18 incoming metrics this past week, barely four improved period-over-period, including March’s Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales and Factory Orders.  But at least the stock market went up, Bloomy referring to the rise as “Epic”; (obviously they need a semester in Market Mathematics).  Here’s the Baro:

    Regardless, ‘twould appear Wall Street sees inflation as having ceased, and per CNBC, “…stocks claw back tariff losses…” you see.  Thus:  let the Fed cut sans impunity, if you please!  What do the BEGOS Markets see?  Let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across their past 21 trading days (one month) with their respective grey trendlines and our famous “Baby Blues” of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  And as the Dollar returns to getting a bit of a bid, note the blue dots rolling over to the downside for the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold.  All together now: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:

    And of course since our prior “month-end” missive (29 March), Gold has proceeded to blow through our forecast high for this year of 3262 en route to having reached 3510!  Here by the monthly candles is Gold’s structural journey these past 16 years:

    In closing, let’s review specific to the S&P 500 that which we anticipated back in our 05 April missive:  a major negative crossover for the Index’s “moving average convergence divergence” (“MACD”).  And ’twas just confirmed as the S&P closed out April.  The last time the Index recorded such a high-level negative MACD crossover was at the conclusion of February in 2022, after which into October the S&P accumulated an all-in decline of -1,038 points (-23%).  Ready?

     “But mmb, in B-school they said stocks are a hedge against inflation, just like gold, eh?“

    True enough, Squire.  However, we were also taught (to yet again reprise Jerome B. Cohen):  “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”  Today, ridiculously beyond rationality, the “live” (i.e. trailing 12-months) p/e for the S&P settled the week yesterday at 43.9x(!)  In other words:  with stock prices unsupported by earnings, GDP shrinking, the economy showing signs of stagflation, and a liquid money supply that can only cover 44% of the “money” currently invested in the S&P 500, ’tis not the time to say to stocks “Buy-Buy!”, but rather “Bye-Bye!”

    As for the slipping precious metals, think “Dip-Buy!”

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 806 – (26 April 2025) – “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 806th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock“

    Remember this ol’ tagline from the ’70s?  “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen!”

    Fast-forward to today and ’tis “When Goldman talks, people pile on!”  For the Morgans et alia, too, the same holds true.

    Far be it from The Big Houses to facilitate mathematical justification.  Rather:

    • Just announce “Here comes 4000 Gold, for recession shall unfold!”;
    • Then reprise Tag Team from ’93 with “Whoomp! (There It Is)”; 
    • And in mere hours Gold morphs into a straight up meme stock as if ’twere GameStop.

    In that same critical vein, this past week a fine friend and valued colleague shared these words from Mark Clubb, Executive Chairman at the wealth/asset management financial services firm TEAM PLC:  “…there is undoubtedly too much noise in financial advice today … dressed up as wisdom and too many professionals repeating slogans instead of offering substance…”  We agree.

    Regardless:  if “4000 Gold!” is the call, let’s just immediately put price there.  “We don’t need no stinkin’ analysis!”

    For more perspective we’ve this.  Across the 644 months which have passed since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71 — with still three trading days left in this April’s balance — Gold has already set the record for its largest intra-month low-to-high points-gain in history:  +540!

    Impressive as well on a percentage basis, the +18.2% intra-month gain ranks 15th-best since said nixing.  As for the 14 other even-better intra-month gains, Gold on average then fell by -11.7% within three months, suggesting that sub-3000 from here is very realistic moving forward.  ‘Tis just the way Gold has traded — at least historically — once the euphoria wears off.

    Still, here’s a real show-stopper:  from January’s low just three months ago (2625), Gold has come to within 115 points of having gained $1,000/oz!  Cue the late great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

    ‘Course, there’s still the party-pooper fly in the ointment — for just as do meme stocks — following Gold’s latest All-Time High of 3510 recorded this past Tuesday, price come Wednesday fell as much as -239 points (-6.8%) to 3271 toward settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3330.  No, Gold did not reach down to the 3237 Market Profile support level as prognosticated a week ago; but by our near-term technical BEGOS Markets Value measure, price remains +302 points too “high”:

    And as it has always done, we anticipate Gold (3330) sorting itself out with respect to the above chart’s BEGOS valuation (3028), such rising smooth line itself this past week having averaged a daily gain of +8 points.

    More importantly of course, by the opening Gold Scoreboard, the yellow metal’s supply-adjusted Dollar debasement value (3875) remains the broad-term goal.  And therein note:  the liquid StateSide money supply (“M2” basis) just set its own record high, now $22,149,197,787,444.50, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there reads as “Twenty-two trillion one hundred forty-nine billion one hundred ninety-seven million seven hundred eighty-seven thousand four hundred forty-four dollars and fifty cents”).

    Indeed, every Lincoln counts…

    …and unfortunately, hardly is there enough liquidity to cover the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $48.7T.  Thus:  at least halve the current “live” price/earnings ratio (42.3x) to avoid the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.

    “But then it already will have crashed, mmb…” 

    Squire’s brevity of brilliance oft qualifies as the last word.  Yet there’s hope:  for if the effect of “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) positively plays out such that the U.S. makes its own stuff and earnings double, then also avoided is the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash.  But we digress…

    To progress back to Gold, its continuous futures contract volume these past five days (1,765,217) was the most since the COVID-crippling week ending 14 August 2020, (soon after price had eclipsed 2000 for the first time).

    Now this year-to-date, 17 trading weeks already are in the books with just three of them having been down.  But:  in accordance with the aforeshown Market Value graphic of Gold being +302 points “high”, two of the past four weeks have been down.  So is it finally being perceived that — near-term — Gold perhaps has gone “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A. ’77]?  Here are the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the three downers during 2025 in red:

    Moreover, in walking to coffee this morning we encountered an esteemed gentleman who actively trades the precious metals futures, notably so Silver, which has been in part excluded from Gold’s rally.  We exclaimed:  “Wow, the Gold/Silver ratio this week reached 107x!” to which he replied “Yes, but it is Gold that has gone way too far too fast!”  So for those of you scoring at home, just a little perspective from the quiet shores of our wee Mediterranean fishing village.

    Still (as noted at the foot of the above graphic), the Gold/Silver ratio settled the week at 100.9x.  ‘Tis not nearly the highest reading century-to-date (having reached 124.2x on 18 March 2020 in the COVID chaos); all-in, the ratio’s average since 2001 is 68.9x.  Silver priced today to that average — rather than being the current 33.02 — would instead be +46% higher at 48.31, ever so near the white metal’s own All-Time High of 49.82 away back now 14 full years ago on 25 April 2011.

    Indeed as we go to Gold’s two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis queried “Can’t Silver keep up?”  Yet, note the baby blue dots of trend consistency are at least momentarily running out of puff without having reached up to the key +80% level:  that suggests lower prices are nigh.  And by the Profile we can see the magnitude of Gold’s rapid pullback from this latest 3510 All-Time High:

    With the like graphic for Silver, all she can say is “I’m so left out.”  Even though she’s actually been in a rally mode these last three weeks, on a month-to-date closing basis Silver is net down -5.0% from 34.77 to 33.02, whereas Gold is net up +5.5% from 3157 to 3330.  We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”  Of course, blame it on Cousin Copper whose having dragged Silver into mischievous deeds finds the red metal down -4.1% month-to-date.  That’s our Sweet Sister Silver as — given Gold and Copper — she’s “Torn Between Two Lovers” –[Mary MacGregor, ’76]:

    Toward wrapping it up for this week, the StateSide economy has gone to sleep, even as “TT” shall it eventually tweak, if as we’re so led to believe.

    Similar to what we’d seen the prior week, this past one brought but six metrics into the Economic Barometer:  period-over-period, three improved and three worsened.  Either way, as the high-level financial professionals below depicted in the Econ Baro tell us, the S&P 500 (which month-to-date is barely down -1.5%) loves “no news” and further, “S&P 6200 is a done deal”:  

    But then there’s next week:  18 metrics come due for the Baro, including that breath-holding, “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures for March.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics already found March to be deflationary!  Will the Bureau of Economic Analysis find same via the PCE?  Likewise, shall the first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product be negative?  So anticipates   Raphael “Reality” Bostic’s Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Either way:  prepare the popcorn!

    Still, at the end of the day, ’tis all ok.  Despite fears of recession, “TT”, and unsupportive earnings, we’re nonetheless told to expect “S&P 6200!”  For as decreed Yul Brynner in the role of Pharaoh Rameses I of Egypt –[The Ten Commandments, Paramount, ’56]:  “So let it be written; so let it be done!”

    ‘Course what really need be done is — meme as it may be — hold Gold whilst on a Silver shopping spree!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 805 – (19 April 2025) – “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 805th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…“

     
    …does it not stand to reason that “Everybody’s” selling Gold?  After all, for every ounce bought, it must be sold to the buyer, non?  ‘Tis merely the agreed-upon hitting of available bids and offers that makes the price change.

    But is such wise word to the Fin&Social/Media sufficient?  Likely, no.

    Regardless, let’s go to Gold’s Moneyflow.  Similar to the website’s MoneyFlow graphics for the S&P 500, below we’ve regressed Gold’s Moneyflow into points such that it can be directly compared with the actual change in price.  To wit,  this three panel display (one week, one month, one quarter) wherein the green line is the cumulative points difference between Gold’s price change and its MoneyFlow:

    “So what’s with that big dip there, mmb?  Because Gold is basically at a record high…”

    Simple, Squire. Recall after Gold’s having settled at 3190 on 02 April came three robust rounds of selling, price then closing at 2999 on 07 April.  The “big dip” — as you put it — merely indicates that the amount of money by points regression which flowed out of Gold hardly in full has flowed back in, even as price as risen to yet another All-Time High at 3372 this past Thursday, toward settling the abbreviated trading week at 3341.  In fact, across the past nine trading days (07 – 17 April), Gold’s day-over-day contract volume declined for six of them, (see too our closing graphic).

    “Well, none of THAT was on FinTV, mmb…”

    Nor would it be, Squire, given their WestPalmBeacher audience.  The point is:  MoneyFlow ultimately leads price.  And as you regular readers know, price at present remains technically well-extended above its BEGOS valuation line per this year-over-year graphic:

    To be sure, “mis-valuation” — whether technical or fundamental — seems oft “forever” sustained in markets (a prime example being the S&P’s ongoing post-COVID extreme over-valuation).  Obviously, one cannot “will” price to be elsewhere.  For ’tis axiomatic that price itself net of its bids and offers is never wrong; Gold therefore by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date is ever right:

    Gold’s All-Time Closing high was recorded this past Wednesday at 3358.  ‘Twas but half that at 1679 a mere 2.3 years ago as encircled in the following table of Gold’s closing price “doublings” since 1975, which was the first full year featuring Gold futures at the COMEX:

    ‘Course per the table’s footnote, Gold first achieved the 1679 closing level some 14 years ago on 08 August 2011.  That — for those of you scoring at home — means Gold was net “unch” after 11 years despite a harrowing route.

    Veteran readers may remember back in 2011 our penning about price “having gotten ahead of itself”,  after which Gold was severely sold — indeed way oversold — to as low as 1047 on 17 December 2015.  ‘Twas exemplary of Gold’s trials and tribulations as it fell far behind the Dollar debasement curve, which is de facto the most acute tool to value the yellow metal per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

    Fast-forward to today at 3341, Gold still is -13% below the Scoreboard’s value of 3833.  Assuming that flexing level is graphically eclipsed (and we’re still around), we’ll again write of Gold “having gotten ahead of itself”.  Certainly at present, the Gold hype is ripe with 4000 in sight … which likely means it shan’t get there anytime soon.  Again given Gold’s expected yearly trading range — and assuming the 2625 low (06 January) holds — 3400 may well be Gold’s top for this year should “TT” (“Trump Tariffs“) reach some accord and Europe not be sucked into war.

    One wonders as well if the StateSide Economic Barometer has topped for the year.  ‘Tis speculated that “TT” are grinding the economy to a halt:  “You mean we gotta make our own stuff??  I just wanna stay at home with my phone!!”  (You tell ’em, Stoopid).

    Further, there’s still evidence of inflation, disinflation, stagflation and now even deflation, the latter per Labor’s March data.  But wait, as we offer more confusion:  last week’s set of 13 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro found six having improved period-over-period, six having worsened, and one as “unch”.  Even those so-called six-figure “experts” are amiss:  their consensus for April’s Philly Fed Index was +10.0 … it came in at -26.4 … “Ooooh!”  Here’s the year-over-year view, wherein even “The Chair” perhaps is confused:

    Note as well in the Baro our “live” Price/Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still a hair-raising 39.2x (summation of: current prices ÷ trailing 12-month earnings x capitalization weighting, wherein non-earners are assigned their price as P/E).  The good news is that Q1 Earnings Season — whilst still early with just 41 S&P constituents having thus far reported — recorded 73% as having improved year-over-year results, which is an above average pace.  The bad news is — as you’ve herein read a bazillion times — the overall level of earnings remains far too low to support price, the P/E ratio invariably reverting to its mean, especially given the S&P’s 1.462% yield versus the 4.205% annualized yield on risk-free 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills.

    Far more broadly, if one can stomach the volatility, Gold also is risk-free.  Simply stated, the higher the amount of fiat dough, the higher Gold shall go.  Recall GEICO’s infamous quip:  “It’s so easy, a caveman can do it” … and according to archaeology evidence, they were Gold-aware away back in the BCs.

    What we next find is Gold’s notably having outperformed Silver of late via the two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for the yellow metal on the left and for the white metal on the right.  Last year from mid-May to mid-July, the Gold/Silver ratio basically resided in the 70s.  Today ’tis 102.7x, Sister Silver having yet again been led lower by cajoling Cousin Copper.  “For shame, young lady, for shame!”

    Still, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles, Silver (below right) has managed to work higher, positioned therein quite similarly to that of Gold (below left).  And our sense is that Gold’s dominant volume supporter at the denoted 3237 price surely shall be tested in the new week:

    To close it out, as earlier noted, Gold on Thursday reached an All-Time High of 3372, (indeed already +110 points above our year’s forecasted high of 3262).  Our being curious to see the FinMedia’s acknowledging of the fresh All-Time High, we went to three key website main pages:  Bloomy – no mention; Dow Jones Newswires: – no mention; CNBS – no mention.

    Thus:  do pardon our forgetting that — at the end of the day — Gold remains an inert relic.  Or as ’tis said, “Nothing to see here” in this year-to-date chart of Gold, given every ounce bought must also be sold, (the “receding” volume, behold, per our MoneyFlow all told):

    So, should Gold duly near-term flop, one ought fear not.  Rather:  be prepared to buy the drop!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 804 – (12 April 2025) – “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 804th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262“

    Yesterday (Friday) at 13:33 GMT, June Gold traded at 3262.  ‘Tis our forecast high for this year as selected at New Year, and completes the triad of our three Golden Goals for 2025.

    As yesterday’s session further unfolded, Gold retrenched, but briefly then made it to a point higher still at 3263 — the new All-Time High — before settling the week at 3255.  And the five-day low-to-high run (2970-to-3263) of +9.9% was Gold’s best intra-week percentage gain since that ending 14 August 2020 when COVID covered the cosmos.

    Yet on to “The Now” as straightaway we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, which look nothing but great, price having made it to 3262 plus that extra point as icing on the cake:

    Given 2025’s eventual total of 252 trading days, Gold reached our forecasted 3262 in just 70 sessions, which for those of you scoring at home means 72% of the year is still in the balance.

    Thus the obvious question begged is:  “Where Do We Go from Here?” –[Chicago, ’70].

    Despite Gold having already achieved our upside goal, our call for getting there has been completely upside down.  En route to 3262, we’d anticipated Gold initially to pullback lower into the 2800s/2700s/2600s, even specifically to as low as 2507(!)  Instead through these first 15 weeks of 2025, just two have been down.  Such like stint hasn’t occurred since having penned the second edition of The Gold Update away back on 28 November 2009!

    But to Pete Cetera’s above crooning question, remember our writing at New Year that “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates … 2507.  Then would follow the ascent to [the] forecast high of 3262…”

    Our good man Squire then later questioned:  “But mmb, what if the 2625 low is already in for this year?” to which we responded “…were that to turn out to be the case, then our forecast for a 3262 year’s high may be deemed in hindsight as modest.”

    Similar was the case last year (for which we sought 2375, price then moving well beyond that to 2802).  And now year-to-date, the low of 2625 (06 January) remains in place.

    And thus as just penned this past 22 March:  “…’IF‘ the low for this year is already in place … Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the ‘expected yearly trading range’ equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy…”  Yep, no kiddin’, keep readin’.

    However, one only gets one shot at a forecast; re-forecasting is verboten!  But given price’s present momentum, 3400 from here (+4.5%) seems a mere stone’s throw, barring it suddenly going all wrong for Gold.

    That stated, the tug-of-war continues between Gold being technically near-term overbought vs. fundamentally broad-term undervalued.  The latter case is made evident by the opening Gold Scoreboard, price today (3255) being -15% below its Dollar debasement valuation of 3830.

    But by our BEGOS Markets’ value method, the following year-over-year graphic of Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (2962) shows price presently as +293 points — i.e. +10% — too “HIGH”:

    “So +293 points above value is pretty high, eh mmb?  Congrats on the call, by the way…”

    Thanks Squire.  And indeed the current +293-point deviation is the second-highest century-to-date.  ‘Twas only higher by +311 points upon the then All-Time Closing Gold High of 1900 back on 22 August 2011, from which in two months Gold fell -15% (snowballing to a -44% fall per the end of 2015).  But more “recently” by percentage deviation, the last time ’twas by this much (+10%) was on 08 March 2022, after which price fell from 2058 to 1695 (-4.5%) come that year’s Bastille Day (14 July).

    To be sure, if one labels “TT!” (“Trump Tariffs!”) as geopolitically Gold-boosting bedlam, price’s admirable rally is justifiable.  The Dollar Index just took quite a hit in sporting a weekly settle below 100 for the first time since that ending (believe it or not again) on Bastille Day 2023.  A Swiss Franc that day cost $1.1680 … today ’tis $1.2368.  Got Gold? Got Swiss??  Here’s the solid “Safe-Haven Two-Fer” that one cannot miss:  Miss Helvetia!

    Such mirthful jubilation aside, you strident Gold aficionados well-understand what follows geopolitically-induced price spikes:  reversion to the mean.  Yes, we fully comprend that “It’s different this time” … ’tis always different this time … until ’tisn’t.  We thus remain sensitively wary for Gold’s price to be suddenly jerked into reverse.  Indeed such down stints have been lurking of late:  on each of 03, 04 and 07 April, Gold recorded intra-day declines of more than -100 points; they’ve just been lost in the sensationalized shuffle.

    Shuffling down net-net since mid-February is the Economic Barometer.  Perhaps worse:  are we DEflating?  After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recording deflationary readings in three of its four key Price Indices for March:  the headline paces at both the Consumer and Producer levels were negative as was the latter’s core pace.  ‘Course the “Fed-favoured” paces of Personal Consumption Expenditures shan’t be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis until 30 April.  But should negativity also therein lie, the Federal Open Market Committee surely shall cut their Bank’s Funds Rate per the 07 May Policy Statement.  Too, of the Baro’s nine incoming metrics this past week, just two were “positive”:  March’s Treasury Budget was less negative, and Wholesale Inventories for February were worked down.  So in going to the year-over-year picture, just as the stock market can be a hedge against inflation, so too can it be a broken dam to deflation as such ebbing tide lowers all boats:

    Next we turn to trend consistency for the precious metals as measured by their baby blue dots.  Below for Gold on the left, despite price’s “mega-spike” of nearly +200 points for the past week, the “Baby Blues” have become a bit unglued; certainly so for Silver on the right, the aforeshown Gold/Silver ratio at present a whopping 101.1x:

    Thus as we view the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right), ’tis not surprising to find Gold’s closing white bar near the top of the chart, whilst that for Silver is mid-range.  ‘Course the culprit there is Cousin Copper, the red metal within the past three weeks posting a high-to-low blow of -25% from 5.374 (26 March) to 4.030 (07 April).  Oh those “TT!”

    Toward the wrap, here’s the stack:

    The Gold Stack

    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3830
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 3263 (from 2973) = +290 points or +9.8%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3255 (11 April 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  none by the Profile
    Gold Currently:  3255, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  75 points)
    Trading Support:  nearby 3247 and 3235, then 3160
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3116
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2970
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2549 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    So does Gold’s stellar run stop here, essentially at our 3262 forecast high for this year?  Until we actually experience the coming effect of “TT!”, its babble and prattle shall the markets still rattle.  But like everything else, be it geopolitically, monetarily, financially or whateverly, “TT!” eventually will fall from the FinMedia headlines and, in turn, Gold experience descent to some extent.  Either way, what a gut-grippin’ Gold ride we’ve spent!

    The Gold Update: No. 803 – (05 April 2025) – “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 803rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed“

    Long-time readers of The Gold Update know our favourite final future headline is:  “World Ends, Dow +2”, (“The Dow” of course being that Index at which our parents used to look) … except these last two days instead brought Dow -3,911 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

    “The Dow” thus having gone down, obviously, the world didn’t end, albeit as a seasoned investor here said earlier in the week:  “Nobody at Goldman has ever experienced a down market”.  Hence the hysteria over something way overdue, certainly so across these last few years.

    Indeed on the heels of last week’s missive “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”, an ever-so long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst was finally revealed in the form of a StateSide attempt for tax equality on imported goods.  (See our personal experience closing wrap on that).  More catalyst crash considerations later.  But first, let’s cut to the quick.

    Thursday and Friday saw Gold — itself overdue to come off — finally so do whilst stocks got boffed … and Sister Silver summarily slaughtered in loss … all below summarized in this BEGOS Markets’ two-day net change table nonetheless featuring Gold now as 2025’s boss:

    And still up +15.8% for the year, Gold this past Wednesday recorded another All-Time High at 3202:  that’s a mere 60 points away from our Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262.  But then the selling ensued, price settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3056.  Through the 14 trading weeks year-to-date, ’twas just the second that was down.  But yes, Virginia, Gold (below left) now at 3056 still shows technically near-term as +110 points “high” above its smooth valuation line of 2946, whereas the S&P 500 (below right) by the like metric for the futures is -787 points “low”:

    Again, we emphasize that is technically near-term:  Gold is too high and the S&P 500 too low; (and you can find such stances as updated daily on the website’s BEGOS Market Values page).  But fundamentally broad-term, ’tis comprehensively au contraire, mes chères soeurs et frères!  True valuation of Gold is mathematically solved per debasement of the U.S. Dollar, whereas for the S&P ’tis by a rational generation of earnings.

    Thus in the following table wherein Gold for the moment is +3.7% overvalued and the S&P -13.6% undervalued, of far greater importance is Gold being -20.2% undervalued (per our opening Scoreboard by Dollar Debasement) and the S&P +40.2% overvalued (per our “live” price/earnings ratio initiated a dozen years ago):

    “So what you’re saying, mmb, is this sudden S&P ‘crash’ is just peanuts in the bigger picture, eh?”

    Squire, throughout the 68-year existence of the S&P 500, the evolving average of its p/e always reverts to its mean.  We’ll spare you the math history, but per the above table wherein we’ve calculated price by p/e as +40.2% too high — assuming earnings growth remains rather muted — price “ought” correct from here by another -28.7%, ultimately placing the S&P in the 3600s.  Remember:  had COVID never happened, regressing the S&P’s growth track puts it today at best in the low 3000s.  But therein lies the good news:  the $7T post-COVID “accounting entry” (by which the S&P made it up into the 6000s) remains in the monetary system:  thus just as swiftly as dough has left the S&P, so too can it go back into the S&P, see?  For the investor, ’tis at present high stress.  For the trader, ’tis as present high times.  Either way, a ferocious “relief rally” for the S&P wouldn’t surprise us a wit.

    That said, this next graphic does not portend well for the S&P 500 as it shows a provisional negative MACD (moving average convergence divergence) crossover on the monthly candles.  ‘Course, it would confirm at month-end, (barring first a significant recovery).  Yikes…

     

    And as earlier noted with respect to a long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst, we’ve oft referred to the “Look Ma, No Earnings!” crash and/or the “Look Ma, No Money!” crash.  To be sure as we’ve underscored ad nauseam across many-a-missive, earnings have become meaningless, and the amount of money “invested” in the S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) is better than twice the size of the actual readily-available money supply to cover it all.  But in awaiting the now appointed “Tariffs!” catalyst, recall what we penned back on 22 February:  “Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame… think about it.”  Bingo.

    But these past five days were not an ongoing “Bingo!” by Gold’s weekly bars as next shown.  The rightmost bar high-to-low was by percentage (-5.3%) Gold’s worst intra-week loss since that ending last 22 November, whilst on a points basis (-187) the worst since that ending 14 August 2020.  ‘Course year-to-date, again, +15.8% is great.  But Silver’s -15.6% two-day slaughter pushed her ratio from Gold up to 103.5x, the highest reading since 14 May 2020.  Priced instead to the century-to-date evolving average of 68.9x Silver right now would be +50% above her present 29.53 level at 44.38!  “GOT SILVER?“  More on her in a bit.  Here’s Gold’s graphic:

    As to the Economic Barometer, the past week gave it a bit of a boost:  seven of the 12 incoming metrics improved period-over-period, the best standout being March’s ADP Employment data which also beat consensus as well as having February revised upward.  Negatively however, Unemployment picked up a pip whilst both the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services Indices declined.  ‘Course, the obvious lowlight in the graphic is the S&P 500 (red line).  Here’s the year-over-year view:

    On to the precious metals daily bars for the past three months-to-date and 10-day Market Profiles.  First we’ve those for Gold, her “Baby Blues” (at left) of trend consistency appearing to run out of puff; in the Profile (at right) we find it mostly populated by overhead resistors as labeled:

    Second, there’s the like drill for poor ol’ Sister Silver:  Slaughtered, creamed, annihilated, ’tis one of her worst graphics on record.  So much so, that we present last week’s five trading days using red bars on the left.  As for her Profile, ’tis nothing but resistance on the right.  And specific to these past two days, Silver abandoned her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket in inebriated sympathetic (indeed simply pathetic) decline (-15.6%) with Cousin Copper (-12.8%).  In fact, Silver percentage-wise lost in just two days what Gold has gained year-to-date (+15.8%)!  We can’t bear to look!

    We’ll wrap up here for this week with a little personal experience tariff talk.

    We (on the very rare occasion) make a purchase that is shipped from the United States.  Our most recent case was $99 worth of a specific popping corn we simply cannot find on this side of The Pond.  The shipping charge was $25, and thus the all-in cost paid to the exporter was $124.

    Then came the fun part in order to take receipt of the shipment.

    A customs tariff of €28 ($29) was levied along with the beloved value-added tax of €35 ($37) for an all-in cost of $190 for $99 worth of popping corn.  Ex-shipping, 40% of the cost went to tariff and tax.

    No wonder the “Leader of the Free world” is fired up.  Just don’t let ’em get your Gold!

    A team player, our Squire.  Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 802 – (29 March 2025) – “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 802nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware“

    Well!  Can we all say “Gold 3100!”  After all, why stop at 3000?  For this past Thursday as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per Tag Team from ’93): “Whoomp! There It Is!” as 3100 June Gold traded, indeed yesterday (Friday) to as high as 3124!

    ‘Course, from the “Nitty-Picky Dept.”, spot Gold didn’t quite get there, reaching up to only 3085, with the April contract going off the board at 3090.  Yet given our year’s Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262, (let alone the above Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement Gold valuation of 3825), ’tis merely a  matter of time for spot 3100… and beyond!

    Regardless (and you knew this was coming):  all the new-found Gold euphoria aside, yes, we remain expectant for some material degree of price decline.  ‘Tis technically so by our BEGOS valuation of Gold depicting it as +173 points “high” (price then always reverting to valuation).  ‘Tis fundamentally so by inflation’s inability to efface toward a “Fed-favoured” pace.  Let’s have a look.

    Technically we’ve our year ago-to-date chart of price’s daily closes vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line which assesses Gold’s movement relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500.  As shown, Gold is presently priced at 3090, but the valuation line is 2917:  thus we’ve the +173-point difference which will get closed, aided as well by the smooth line itself being on the rise:

     

    Fundamentally for inflation through February, ’tis said you can “pick your poison” per our puke-green table below, wherein:

    • Should you side with The Bureau of Labor Statistics (which calculates both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index), the pace of inflation slowed for the month, the core PPI itself being deflationary;

    • If instead to go with the Fed, The Bureau of Economic Analysis‘ Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in well-ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred annualized rate of +2.0%.  

    But:  to average the six annualized measures for February, ’tis magically spot-on at +2.0%  So if you’re an Open Market Committee member, query:  Who to believe?  What to do?  Lower, maintain, or raise?  (To be sure, ’tis FinMedia-verboten to even mention the phrase “Fed rate raise”).  Yet what? No cut? Cue King Crimson crooner Greg Lake from ’69: “Confusion will be my epitaph…”  as here’s the table:

    Either way, Gold is the momentum play … or is it?  There being but one trading day remaining in March, indeed in Q1, let’s see where the real year-to-date momentum is as the Metals Triumvirate still tops our BEGOS Markets Standings, the podium placers being the red metal (+27%), the white metal (+19%) and the yellow metal (+17%)  “Got inflation?”  Gold aware, stocks beware:  look at last place.  Here’s the whole bunch:

    “But with Copper making all-time highs, isn’t that great for the economy, mmb?”

    Traditionally, Squire, Copper is said to lead the economy.  ‘Course with “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) dominating the newsflow, Copper naturally gets a surge, initially as a negative given it can increase inflation’s pace, but perhaps more broadly as a positive should manufacturing materially return StateSide and elicit higher real Gross Domestic Product.  But definitely mind Copper as it does tend to lead the price of Gold, the red metal having fallen these last two days in-a-row.

    As for the noted cellar-dweller in the above Standings, we’ve the S&P 500 -5% year-to-date.  You may well have read that oft-dubitable Goldman Sachs just reduced their year-end S&P target to 6200.  “Ahh, youth!”  Our sense is to replace their “6” with a “4”.  Still to their credit, that post-COVID $7T continues to slosh about … but are equities finally losing their “only game in town” status?  For those of you scoring at home:  annualized, the riskfull S&P yield is now 1.368%; the riskless three-month U.S. T-Bill’s is now 4.188%.  Even those WestPalmBeachers down there can discern which is better; (well, maybe not…)

    “But, mmb, the Bipartisan Policy Center just said the ‘X-Date’ for Treasury default is July-October…”

    Squire loves welcoming Wall Street to real life.  And welcome to Treasury, Scott “This we got” Bessent.

    Really real life is enjoying Gold about to complete its tenth winning month of the past 13.  On a mutually-exclusive basis, 10 wins out of 13 has occurred but three other times so far this century.  And by the week from a year ago-to-date, below is our graphic of the enduring Gold streak.  Therein, just 18 weeks have been down whilst basically double that — 35 — have been up.  Here’s the Long and Short of it:

    And in keeping with our month-end mode, let’s next look at leverage via the year-over-year graphic for the Golden percentage tracks of Gold & Bros.  From low-to-high, there’s Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, both Gold itself and Newmont (NEM) +41%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +52%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +86%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)+92%.  Too, a magnificent charter reader has asked we give special mention to Alamos Gold (AGI) aka “The Agnico of the Mid-Tiers” which +84% year-over-year would be tucked in just below AEM and PAAS.  “Remember the Alamos!”

    Near-term for  the precious metals, these are their 10-day Market Profiles featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notable volume apices of the past fortnight are as labeled, the yellow metal (quoted by the June contract) showing support initially at 3114, then more so in the 3068-3055 zone, whilst the white metal’s key supporters are 34.75 and 34.25:

    Broad-term for Gold we’ve the 16-year monthly candles across price’s structure.  Remember the old trading axiom that “Triple tops are meant to be broken”?  Oh my goodness…

    Thus it again being month-end, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets for the past 21 trading days (one month) along with their grey trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend.  And yields having been a bit on the rise find the Bond’s price in recent demise, albeit gaining a safe-haven Friday bid as the S&P 500 fell from the skies.  Note, too, per the website’s Prescient Commentary a couple of weeks back when Oil was in the 65s that the “Baby Blues” were then heralding a run to the low 70s … et voilà:

    So as tomorrow we slide EuroSide to summer hours, let’s close it out for this week with (yet another) shocking stat for the S&P 500.  ‘Course, you regular readers know the two “ongoing-in-perpetuity” shocks of 1) the “live” price/earnings for the S&P now at 40.2x — yes, that’s after Friday’s -2.0% fall — and 2) the current market cap of the S&P now $49.1T versus a “readily available” M2 money supply of less than half that at $21.8T.  (Is your brokerage preparing its IOUs?)

    Here’s our next shock.  Per the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings, again the worst year-to-date loser is the S&P -5.1%.  If we regress by the day from New Year the track of the S&P’s closing price (which currently is 5581), and extrapolate such trend to year-end, the Index then first settles in the 4000s come 12 August, on track to finish the year -25% at 4386.  This varies a bit from Goldman’s 6200, but we tend to notice little things like that.

    Because we don’t forget big things like this:

    The Gold Update: No. 801 – (22 March 2025) – “Gold’s Year of the Bid”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 801st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Year of the Bid“

    Thus far in 2025, ’tis been the year of the Gold bid.  Folks who are clueless on Gold are abashedly asking about it.  “How much is it?”  “How do I buy it?”  “How much is in Fort Knox?” “How do I store it?” “How much is it taxed?” “How do I get it outta the UK?”

    Indeed, we too query:  has our having penned 800 Gold Updates finally made the world Gold crazy?  That century-to-date — although the S&P 500 is + 329% (from 1320 to 5668) — that Gold’s growth is triple that at +1,005% (from 274 to 3028)?   ‘Tis clear that this year the Golden lightbulb has suddenly gone aglow and everybody’s excited to give Gold a bid, even wee London:

    Naturally, we’re also excited.  Based on the linear regression pace at which Gold is rising so far in 2025, ‘twould reach our year’s forecast high — Golden Goal Three of 3262 — on 07 May:  that’s a mere 32 trading days from now, with then nearly eight months left in the year’s balance!

    “I dunno mmb, but if it happens that fast, then what?”

    Two generalizations there, Squire. “IF” the low for this year is already in place (2625 on 06 January), Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the “expected yearly trading range” equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy.  Contrarily, stagflation sets in and the Fed is stuck, perhaps even having to raise its FundsRate to slow rising costs, the Dollar then getting the bid away from Gold, which in turn travels toward such downside range in revisiting the 2700s, 2600s, 2500s.  In the meantime, next Friday (28 March) bring February’s “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

    For as can be the case with markets — excitement breeds near-term excessiveness.  Through this year’s 55 trading days-to-date, Gold (as is its current case) has been “textbook overbought” for 45 of them.  We refer to it as “textbook” as ’tis visible to the trading public at large should they care to access such available mix of standardly-used technical studies, our preferred cocktail consisting of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics.

    Better still (albeit far less publicly-viewed) is the website’s BEGOS Markets Value for Gold, which just completed a 52nd consecutive trading day above its smooth valuation line, price next shown as +139 points “high”:

    Hardly is 52 days above that line a record (the most in the past 25 years being 75 days); however upon reaching 52 days, price then on average within the ensuing 63 trading days (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is one trading quarter) has fallen -7%.  Thus per Gold having settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 3028 — posting  en route a fresh All-Time High at 3065 — a slide within such -7% vacuum would be some -200 points from here, i.e. relatively in line with our having suggested that the road to Golden Goal Three of 3262 may well first travel through the 2700s-2600s, even to as low as 2507 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  For unlike the Nvidias or Palantirs or Gamestops or even Bitcoins of the world, Gold is not (barring a U.S. Treasury default) going to go straight up:  ’tis too globally liquid for the offers to just “vanish”.

    The point is: be thee not discouraged should price pullback a few hundred points, for the ultimate Gold target as ever remains the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value which at present is 3803.  Hence as depicted in the above graphic:  “Near-term, Gold is too high … ‘Course broadly, Gold is too low!”

    Either way, Gold’s year-over-year trend remains nothing short (pun!) of amazing!  To wit, Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date astride the ever-rising parabolic Long trend per the rightmost blue dots:

    And therein note the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the current 90.3x level being the second-highest weekly close so far this year.  Priced to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 68.8x, Silver — rather than being 33.53 today — would instead be +31% higher at 44.00  “Got Silver?” … (a rhetorical question for our resourceful readers).

    From having recently been less resourceful to flatlining this past week is the Economic Barometer.  Oh, there were incoming metrics aplenty:  16 of ’em … of which seven bettered their like reading of the prior period and nine were worse.  The week’s best winner was February’s Existing Home Sales which bettered both consensus and January’s number, such prior month also revised higher.  But the stinkers were March’s National Association of Home Builders Index taking quite a tumble (from 42 to 39), as did the month’s New York State Empire Index (from +5.7 to -20.0).

    ‘Course, the week’s non-event highlight was the Federal Open Markets Committee’s “sitting on its hands” Policy Statement.  But in conspicuous contrast to the sudden stumble by the Econ Baro, did you read the FOMC’s opening sentence of its Statement?  ‘Tis below embedded:

    Not to be overly critical of The Fed, but might its referred “recent indicators” be from last September during which time the Baro — as you can well see — was firmly rising?  After all, you know the long-running saying that “The Fed is behind the curve.”  Perhaps esteemed voting member (and ChiFedPrez) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee could shed some light on such recent “solid pace”.  Anyway, we’ll instead stick with the actual math.

    Turning to the math that makes our “Baby Blues”, they are ever-smoothly in synch with Gold’s moves, either up or down.  Such measure of regression trend consistency as below shown on the left is fairly well-paired with price across the past three months, albeit Gold has dropped for two successive days even as the dominant trend is up.  And on the right in Gold’s 10-day market Profile we see 3043 as the highest-volume handle traded these past two weeks, its role at present that of overhead resistance with notable near-term volume support at 2996:

    As for poor ol’ Sister Silver, she has declined for three straight sessions, her like graphic from three months ago-to-date below left and Market Profile below right.  Therein, her dominant volume resistor is 34.35:

    Gold’s Year of the Bid indeed!  We’re a bit surprised to see the yellow metal moving so swiftly toward Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Through the year’s first 12 weeks, only one has been down:  such stints of 11 up weeks in 12 have only occurred (as a mutually-exclusive basis) on five other occasions so far this century.  The average price fallout following those five instances within the ensuing three months?  -9%, which again “suggests” similar downside to the aforeshown currently streaking Market Value’s “price over valuation differential” that has historically then led to an average -7% drop.  But as we on occasion caution:  “Average is not Reality” especially given Gold’s strong bid this year.  Still as stated, we shan’t be surprised to see Gold revisit the 2700s, etc.

    And in Gold’s year of the bid if such pullback must be, better it indeed be prior to our 3262 Golden Goal Three!

    The Gold Update: No. 800 – (15 March 2025) – “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 800th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!“

    Long-time (really long-time) readers of The Gold Update know that our microphones are just about everywhere as was the case in Rome’s Curia Pompeia (a little Latin lingo there) on this day in 44 B.C.  Let’s roll the tape:

    • Soothsayer:  “Hail Caesar!”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Whaddya got, Soothie…”

    • Soothsayer:  “We who embrace Caesar, whose name is magnificent, whose presence is ever-accessible, who makes our world wonderful, we turn our hearts to thee, oh Caesar…”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Oh just get on with it, Soothie…”

    • Soothsayer:  “Oh great Caesar!  Beware the Ides of March!  For on this very day 2,068 years hence shall come the 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update!”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Soothie…  Get out!”

    Following which of course out came the long knives and the rest — as ’tis said — is “histoire”.

    Welcome to the 800th Gold Update, our having missed nary a Saturday throughout.  ‘Tis again a “milestone” for us, and we shan’t forget those who’ve substantively got us here, most notably the Mighty Moriarty of 321Gold, along with Goldseiten, Gold-Eagle, Kitco, Investing.com, TalkMarkets, GoldSeek and YOU: the most savvy Gold readers ’round the world.  Our truly heartfelt thanks to everyone.

    Moreover, welcome to Golden Goal Two, such “milestone” level of 3000 by the April futures contract having been reached this past Thursday evening @ 20:49 GMT with spot Gold then following yesterday (Friday) morning @ 10:10 GMT.  A doubly-beautiful thAng!

    Further, a hardened aspect of The Gold Update these many years is that when we’re way wrong, we so say!  In this case, we’ve of late been anticipating Gold reaching lower price levels, certainly so from the week ending 28 February wherein Gold high-to-low fell -130 points from 2974 to 2844.  Instead, 3000 was just tapped.

    Indeed, whilst our Golden Goal Three for the year is still a projected a high of 3262, we’ve this reminder (from 04 January) as to Gold’s potential downside :  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates…2507…”  And should that eventuate, our sense remains it comes prior to 3262 “Goo goo g’ joob” –[Lennon, ’67].

    But should we remain wrong (i.e. Gold not materially decline en route), ‘twould be great, for 3262 shall then appear in hindsight as having been a modest mandate.

    Either way, Gold settled yesterday at 2994 in reaching a new All-Time High of 3017, the Monday-Friday net gain both by points (+76) and percentage (+2.6%) being the best of the year’s 11 weeks-to-date, within which (as aforenoted) only one has been down.

    “Which begs the question mmb, is that an 11-week record?  Congrats on 800 by the way…”

    Thanks dear Squire:  we couldn’t have made it this far without you.  As for similar 11-week periods with but one (or even none) as down, on a mutually-exclusive basis ’tis happened century-to-date on seven other occasions, the prior case being within the grips of COVID from the weeks ending 29 May 2020 through 07 August 2020.  Gold for that 11-week stint posted a net gain of +18.0%.  This time ’round ’tis +13.5%.  Regardless, as to “The Now”, all looks great in GoldLand:

    And by the above weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now eight weeks in duration, the “flip-to-Short” level of 2760 affording Gold 234 points of wiggle room, (albeit the blue dots are now swiftly speeding upward at a rate of +42 points per week).  Still, by the above graphic, again we say, “Gold is looking as good as it gets!”

    However:  in measuring Gold by its smooth valuation line, price’s movement relative to those of the other four primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Oil / S&P 500) presently appears some +122 points “high” above that smooth grey line…

    …to which price always returns, acknowledging ‘natch that the smooth line itself is in ascent.  So again, some price descent many be in near-term order.  But of broader import — per the opening Gold Scoreboard — price today at 2994 is -807 points beneath the Dollar debasement appraisal of 3801.  Or apropos of this 800th missive, let’s reprise the deserved decree from late great Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold!”  Price upon his 20 November 2015 passing was 1077:  wherever in the Gold ether he now is,  the +180% 10-year gain must be most satisfying.

    But suddenly not so satisfying is the state of the StateSide economy, which by the Economic Barometer across the past two weeks has suffered a bit of a “whoopsie…” (technical term).  The marked month-over-month braking in the pace of inflation suggests a slowing of activity, although February’s “Fed-favoured” read via Personal Consumption Expenditures is still two weeks away.  But initially for the month at both the headline and core readings, the Consumer Price Index substantially slowed, whilst the Producer Price Index actually hinted at deflation, the headline number’s pace at zero and that for the core coming in negative.  Does that mean the regular stuff yer now buyin’ this month is cheaper?  Well, maybe not, as the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for March just suffered its third-worst month-over-month drop since COVID.  “Whoopsie!” indeed.  Here’s the Econ Baro:

    Specific to the precious metals, ’tis been anything but “Whoopsie!” in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with those for Silver on the right.  For both markets, their respective “Baby Blues” of day-to-day trend consistency just recently breached below the 0% axes, only to then reverse back upward as the 21-day downtrends came to an end:

    In next turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), the standout feature is the yellow metal depicting “A dearth of volume support” which is created when price rapidly covers a large range of points.  ‘Tis merely something of which to be aware should price suddenly skid back down to the 2924 volume-dominant support level.  As for the white metal, she sports a bit of a volume gap from her present 34.35 price down to 33.70, but with firmer support in the 33.20-32.90 zone as labeled:

    Thus there we are for No. 800.  It being a “milestone” for us in tandem with Golden Goal Two of price having achieved the 3000 “milestone”, let’s go to the stack.  Therein note:  nothing is listed in the 2800s.  So swift has been Gold’s recent rise, that after having settled a total of 59 days in the 2600s and then 30 days in the 2700s, there’ve been but 11 settles in the 2800s, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  Indeed, a word to the wise is sufficient.  (What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is don’t be surprised should selling ensue).  Here’s the stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3801
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
    2025’s High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 3017 (from 2870) = +147 points or +5.1%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3001 (13 March 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  2996
    Gold Currently:  2994, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2930
    Trading Support:  per the Profile, nothing substantive until 2924
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2760
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2479 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    To close it out, we again (as is on occasion a Gold Update tradition) grin over further “FinMedia Freakout!”.  Our FinMedia friends pride themselves on their technical stock market expertise of which they know not just one, but two measures.  They are called “The 200-day Moving Average” and “The 10% Correction”.

    In this case, ’tis the latter which came to the fore across this past Thursday’s FinMedia spectrum as a result of the S&P 500 having reached down -10% from its recent all-time high of 6148, (the Index today at 5639).  Rife was the air with panicky hysteria!  From one FinMedia page to the next, the leading heading was nearly identical:  “S&P 500 Enters Correction”.  (Note:  here at deMeadville, the correction commenced three weeks ago upon the S&P futures crossing below their own smooth valuation line as featured daily at the website, hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge).

    The good news is, by the time the FinMedia typically figures this out, ’tis oft a fabulous buy signal.  Indeed prior to yesterday’s +117-point S&P rally, we internally texted it ought be bought.  Boom!  Following which came this hilarious rationale courtesy of CNBC:  “Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.”  (We’re curious as to how may hours may be the “time being”).  The Ides of March, indeed.  On verra…

    That stated, we still view the S&P as treacherously overvalued en route to a down year.  But counter to that remains the question:  “Where then is COVID’s $7T ‘relief fund’ that all ended up in the stock market gonna go?”

    “Which again begs the obvious question, right mmb?”

    Better yet, Squire, as a statement:  How about into Gold!

    The Gold Update: No. 799 – (08 March 2025) – “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 799th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide“

    Whilst we’ve still our near-term negative bent for the price of Gold, nonetheless let’s reprise this from last week’s missive:  “…one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came…”

    And from the prior Friday’s White House brawl to yesterday morning’s RUS/UKR missile-drone attack, such geo-political jitters — in tandem with tariff tantrums — have kept Gold aloft, price settling the week at 2918 for a net five-day gain of +1.8% (+50 points).

    Yet, ’twas a so-called “inside week” for the yellow metal, meaning Gold printed both a higher-low but lower-high than in the week prior.  ‘Tis depicted below in the left hand panel wherein the outermost green and red horizontal lines are the prior week’s range and the innermost two this past week’s range, the diagonal slants showing the difference.  Still, in spite of it all, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continued to fall, paired here with the S&P’s folderol and Silver’s attempting a grip on the ball:

    “But mmb, that’s more than just S&P folderol ’cause it’s down -6% from its high!”

    We’ve on occasion been queried if Squire is paid for such “teeing-up” comments.  (Rather, for the privilege of his presence on this page, he pays us).

    But to the point, yes, the S&P 500 (now 5770) has lost -6% of its value from the all-time high (6147) of just 13 trading days ago (19 February).  Yet from our purview ’tis “nuthin’ but noise” given the mighty Index today is +765% above its FinCrisis low of 667 (06 March 2009) as well as +163% over the COVID low of 2192 (23 March 2020).  Thus for you WestPalmBeachers down there, the S&P’s -6% pullback is a statistical irrelevancy.  And as our regular readers know all too well, relevancy shall have returned upon the S&P’s price/earnings ratio (the “live” reading now 41.0x) having reverted to its reasonable mean in the low 20s, (which always has occurred — either up or down — since the S&P 500’s inception 68 years ago in March 1957) And in turn, the otherwise ongoing Investing Age of Stoopid shall have been eradicated.  (Nevertheless, we’ve more on the FinMedia “Panic!” toward today’s wrap).

    As to Gold’s ten trading weeks year-to-date, this past one (the rightmost green bar) is the first to be characterized as “inside”.  Again, the inference as Gold continues to work off its extreme overbought condition is price having benefitted from geo-political and tariff trepidation; hence this past week’s buoyancy:

    To be sure, Gold’s blue-dotted weekly parabolic remains safely Long.  However, by our BEGOS Markets Values measure (in placing a near-term value on Gold per its movements relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS components, i.e. the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500), price is still some +70 points “high” above its smooth grey valuation line; and of course, the two inevitibly shall eventually meet.  Here they are from three months ago-to-date:

    And again as you well know, we fully expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to trade this year, and further our forecast high for Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Yet as the “Not in a Straight Line Dept.” reminds us, we see the route thereto traveling through the 2703-2641 zone, just in case you’re scoring at home.

    ‘Course, how lovely ‘twould be to be wrong and instead see Gold proceed from here at 2918 right up the road to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3798.  Highly unlikely anytime soon, although in responding at a gathering this past week to the query “Is Gold now going to 10,000?” we said “No, and likely somewhat lower near-term, yet 4,000 perhaps is possible in two years or so…”

    But obviously the bogeyman in the room is inflation — which most broadly is a Gold positive — but intermediately a threat to price should the Federal Open Market Committee resort to raising rates.  The good news there, however, is both retail and wholesale inflation by consensii are expected to have somewhat slowed their February paces from those for January.  Next Wednesday (the Consumer Price Index) and Thursday (the Producer Price Index) shall tell the tale.

    Indeed let’s segue to the Economic Barometer which took a bit of a boffing during the week.  Of the 15 incoming metrics, only five improved period-over-period.  Most impressive were January’s Factory Orders which increased from December, that month’s decrease being favourably revised, and which beat consensus.  But the stinker was the backup in January’s Wholesale Inventories, which accumulated over those for December, that month’s depletion revised to a slower pace, and were a bit more bloated than consensus.  Too came the not so rare dichotomy of February’s Payrolls taking a rather severe hit per ADP, but by the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually increased.  “What’s your source?”  Here’s the Baro:

     

    Meanwhile, let’s assess the state of the 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notably for the yellow metal, price spent much of yesterday’s week-ending session clustered ’round the now volume-dominant 2927 level.  As for the white metal, she settled the week smack on her volume-heavy 32.90 support/resistance bar:

    More broadly with respect to Gold’s 300-day moving average across the last 14 years, price generally pulls back when ’tis +20% or higher above that measure (the blue line in the graphic).  Just prior to the start of the current near-term price correction (which began from the All-Time High of 2974 on 24 February), Gold had settled as high as +22.2% above said average; at present ’tis still a lofty +18.4% above same.  So again, we ought not be surprised should Gold further subside:

    Toward closing, in light of the S&P 500 (which year-to-date is now down -1.9%, “OMG!”) having just recorded its weakest week (-3.1%) of the ten thus far this year, as we earlier teased, let’s check in with a few of Friday’s “FinMedia Freakout” finales:

    Bloomy:  “Wall Street’s Big Selloff Puts Pressure on America’s Rich Households”  Lovin’ this one, for how many times have we written:  “Marked-to-market everyone’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality nobody’s worth squat”;

    DJNw:  “Most Americans can’t afford life anymore…”  So is DJNw’s assumption here the alternative?  That’s a bummer.

    CNBS:  “The oversold stocks due for a technical bounce after a brutal week.”  Truly ’tis dumbing down of the word “brutal”; we’ve haven’t had “brutal” since March 2020; and from 2008 into 2009, we regularly ate “brutal” for breakfast.  So what leads to “brutal”?  The aforenoted “live” S&P P/E of 41.0x.

    “So then is the S&P about to crash, mmb?”

    Obviously no one knows, Squire.  What will eventuate over time is the reversion of the S&P’s P/E to a level of normalcy, as earlier cited in the low 20s via:  1) a doubling in earnings without the stock market rising, or 2) a 40%-50% stock market “correction”, or 3) a“Combination of the Two” –[Big Brother and the Holding Company, ’68]

    Either way, we wrap with a wry note:  per this penning, there remain two full weeks of winter.  Yet for some reason of absurdity, StateSide folks early tomorrow move their clocks to summer hours.  What that means for The Gold Update is — by adhering to its time-honoured traditional uploading each Saturday at 11:00 PacCoastTime — ’twill be an hour earlier here EuroSide at 19:00 for our next three editions (15, 22 and 29 March) until we then nudge our clocks forward come 30 March.

    And specific to next week’s piece, beware the Ides of March, for it brings our 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update…

    The Gold Update: No. 798 – (01 March 2025) – “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 798th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls“

    Not that we’ve been rooting for Gold to fall, but it being one of the world’s most substantive liquid markets, it implicitly both rises and falls in its interactive role — that reflecting the cost of currency debasement — as one of the five most important financial stores of value along with the Bond (the cost of money), the Euro (or major currency of your choice as the cost of foreign flows), Oil (the cost of the global economic engine) and the S&P 500 (or major market index of your choice as the cost of equity risk).  We of course refer to this high-level grouping as BEGOS:  (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).

    And from one trading day to the next, each of these five markets at the macro level basically receive and distribute money from one another.  In turn, their combined changes in price elicit a valuation for each component as updated daily on the website’s Market Values page.  And if you’ve been paying attention, Gold across the past few weeks was getting wildly up beyond valuation, our having emphatically pointed to such state in the prior two missives.  But now finally facilitated is Gold’s requisite fall, healthy in spite of it all:

    ‘Course contra to our wary stance — courtesy of the FinMedia —  emerged the “Suddenly Everybody’s a Gold Expert Dept.” proclaiming the price of 3000 being imminent.  And thus it did not happen, oft normal in such market-amateur hysterias.

    Rightly instead, Gold as anticipated whirled ’round down to record its third worst week in better than a year, this time dropping -2.8% (-82 points) in settling yesterday at 2867.  Or to put it to music, we cue the Swiss rock band Gotthard from their ’07 song “The Call”: “The higher they fly, the harder they fall…”

    “And, mmb, that really applies now to the stock market, eh?”

    Frighteningly so, Squire.  Indeed to quote George Kennedy in “The Eiger Sanction”  (Universal, ’75):  “They won’t even know it’s coming until it hits.”  Or as a valued charter reader of The Gold Update has on occasion queried:  “Does it really matter which snowflake causes the avalanche?”

    Then this past Thursday (per our daily Prescient Commentary) came Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency at long last breaking down below their +80% axis (as we’ll later see), which is key in having generated this signal in the end-of-day work spree:

    “The obvious question then is, mmb?”

    Squire, “How low is low?”  Thus here we go:  should the present selling become more substantive from the current 2867 level, ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone.  To be sure:  we still expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to eventually trade, directly or indirectly en route to Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high for this year.  But as we’ve herein reminded since New Year (Gold then 2639), the road to 3262 can quite fairly pass through the lower 2500s.  Is that to where this down run is heading?  Nobody knows.  But ’tis better to get the year’s low place before the high.

    And as we been emphasizing, a wayward wrench dropped into the Gold works is inflation.  Recall our title from two missives ago included the phrase “Fed’s Next Hike”.  Apparently “hike” is not an allowable utterance at large.  Rather, press musings oscillate between “cut” and “pause”, with a lean of late toward the latter.  This results from their not implementing math.  Most notably came yesterday’s “Fed-favoured” inflation report for January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures.  The headline number — rather than easing — remained steady at +0.3% whilst the core number’s pace increased from +0.2% to +0.3%.  Here thus is our inflation summary for January:

    No, thy eyes do not thee deceive.  Across the six measures, January’s average annualized inflation pace was +4.4%, more than double the +2.0% ultimately desired by the Federal Open Market Committee, nearly double December’s +2.6% rate, and the most since February a year ago.  But absent the use of mathematics, the once mighty Barron’s (which in recent years we’ve designated as a “children’s pool”) ran yesterday with “Inflation Eased…”  Seriously.  No wonder “The Dow” (that Index at which our parents used to look) gained +601 points.

    So with the inflation scare in the air, Gold duly dropped as it needed to so do anyway, price as below shown arriving smack on the ascending regression trendline from one year ago-to-date per the weekly bars.  Note the parabolic’s flip to Short price is now 2683, which is quite centered in our aforementioned “how low is low” 2703-2641 zone.  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the white metal retreating more swiftly than the yellow metal:

    Lower Gold to be sure, but ’tis not to be distressed.  For with two months of 2025 now in the books, we go to our BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date to again find the Metals Triumvirate leading the whole pack, Copper now atop the stack +13.4% as the red, yellow and white metals dominate the podium:

    And with further specificity to the precious metals, here we’ve the year ago-to-date percentage tracks of Gold along with key of its equities kin, therein finding Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) having doubled at +100%, followed closely by Pan American Silver (PAAS) +91%, and then the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +51%,  Newmont (NEM) +43%, Gold itself +40%, the bunch rounding out with Franco-Nevada (FNV) +36%.  ‘Tis about as good as it gets, even as near-term price decline has set in:

    Hardly in decline since Halloween is the Economic Barometer, instead sporting on balance the mildest of rises.  ‘Course as we’ve pointed out across some 27 years of maintaining the Baro, increasing inflation works as a positive influence as it raises the nominal values of many-a-metric.  Either way for this past week’s 11 incoming metrics, five bettered their prior period, five were worse, and steady was the first revision to Q4’s Gross Domestic Product at an annualized  +2.3% pace:

    As for yesterday’s S&P 500 big post-White House brawl rally, we eye it as a “dead cat bounce” given the significant deterioration of late in the Index’s Moneyflow regressed into S&P points.  By the website’s S&P Moneyflow page, the Index per this leading indicator “ought be” some 180-to-230 points lower than currently ’tis (5955).  Still, a tip of the cap to just concluded Q4 Earnings Season:  therein, 454 S&P 500 constituents reported, 69% of them bettering their bottom lines from a year ago, which across the past 31 reporting quarters has averaged 66%.  But as we point out ad nauseam, the overall level of earnings remains terribly weak given the price of the Index, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P now 43.3x.  So stay suspect when it comes to stocks.

    Not suspect a wit (per the “SELL” in the table earlier displayed) is the inevitable cascade in Gold’s “Baby Blues”, the red-encircled dot below confirming such signal.  So as is our month-end wont, here we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across the past 21 trading days (one month).  And you know the jingle: “Follow the blues, instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:

    Next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Clearly at 2867, Gold is better than -100 points below its recent All-Time High (2974 this past Monday), whilst Silver has traveled from the 34s back to the 31s.  Notable volume-dominant prices are as labeled:

    And with February now in the books, ’tis once again Gold Structure time by the month across some 16 calendar years.  Take note of “The Infamous Triple-Top” whereby each candle closed well below its respective month’s high, price then declining over the ensuing months:  our rightmost candle now for February has the same characteristic.  The good news “as ever” is Gold by currency debasement remains very cheap indeed.  Nonetheless, here’s the graphic:

    So thus far for 2025 we’ve two months down (both net-net up for Gold) and ten to go.  As noted, in the year’s balance remain Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 and our projected Golden Goal Three of 3262 for the high.  Yet ahead of such ascent we’ve this current descent, for which as stated we are thankful given major markets are not unidirectional.  However, one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came.  Either way, in the words of The Gold Update’s first ever reader away back in 2009 (JGS):  “We’ll watch it together.”

    So be a cool cat and stay with your Gold!

    The Gold Update: No. 797 – (22 February 2025) – “Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 797th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date“

    Let’s commence with another infamous Gold Update quiz!  Ready?

    Since at least this very day a month ago (22 January), what technically until yesterday (21 February) have both Gold and the S&P 500 had in common?

    “They’ve been overbought day-after-day, right mmb?”

    Spot-on there, Squire.  Per near-term widely-used “textbook technicals”, (in our case the potent cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, plus Relative Strength and a generous dash of Stochastics), we’ve Gold now “overbought” through the past 29 trading sessions (since 08 January), as had been the case for the S&P 500 through 21 trading sessions (since 22 January) until finally yesterday it began to all go wrong.

    But of greater import than technical excess, fundamentally both Gold and the S&P instead remain 180° out of phase.  As we regularly remind, whilst the major markets are never wrong, they can be terrifically misvalued.  And ’tis quite stark for this pair:

    • Gold, in settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 2950, is still well shy of the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement valuation level of 3843; in other words, Gold is trading at a -23% discount to its true value.

    • The S&P 500, in settling its week at 6013, remains maniacally expensive, the honestly-calculated price/earnings ratio now 45.7x versus the 25.4x reading a dozen years ago; in other words, the S&P 500 is trading at a +80% premium to such normalized value.

    Or if you prefer, the S&P is today at a +154% premium vis-à-vis Jerome B. Cohen’s “in bull markets the average [p/e] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings”.  But we digress…

    The point specific to Gold is:  to be sure, ’tis still today a magnificent value, even in having achieved yet another marginal All-Time High this past Thursday at 2973.  In fact, through these first eight trading weeks of 2025, all have been up for Gold, price itself year-to-date now +12%.  Moreover — in the pure vacuum of linear regression — Gold is on pace to finish this year +93% at 5093(!)  ‘Course, such level would be ridiculously overvalued above Dollar debasement, and again (as we did pen back in 2011) Gold shall “have gotten ahead of itself”.  No, this year ’tis not going to happen.

    But in context with our missive’s title, Gold has reached rarified air in terms of consecutive up weeks.  Its last down week was that ending last year.  And now for just the fifth mutually-exclusive (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means non-overlapping) instance — for the 1,260 weeks thus far this century — Gold has recorded eight or more consecutive up weeks.  Here’s the summary, the current up streak emboldened therein:

    Indeed per our prior piece, we’d a bit of a bias toward last week being down.  Not so much given Gold’s “textbook overbought” state, but rather by our proprietary, reliable measure of price versus its smooth valuation line, which as you regular readers knows gauges Gold’s movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  Here’s the updated graphic from a year ago-to-date, the red encirclements indicative of price essentially being +200 points “high” above the smooth line.  Note when this last occurred in April a year ago, price swiftly sank from 2400 to 2300, then to remain stalled in that range until July:

    “But the news says everybody’s buying, mmb…”

    We love Squire’s tee-up comments, and the FinMedia certainly is taking a rare above-average notice of Gold.  ‘Course — courtesy of the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.” — if “everybody’s buying” then too “everybody’s selling”; ’tis just that more offers are being hit than bids, price thus rising.  And as stated, such has been the case through this year’s first eight weeks as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost eight closing nubs ascending in green:

    Too, never has the phrase “Gold 3000!” been so bandied about by “everybody”.  You’ll recall from last week’s wrap our referring to the late Art Cashin (best last name ever for a stock market maven) having quipped that should a stock reach up to the price of 90, then 100 shall trade.  And thus Gold having already had 2900 trade would correspondingly see 3000, (which obviously it ultimately shall).  For as you know,  we’ve Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000, and then by year-end, Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high.

    But having been in this business across many-a-decade, one learns that when something “Well obviously!” is imminent to happen … it oft doesn’t.  As we’ve clearly set forth, the price of Gold near-term is significantly stretched to the upside such that a series of pullback weeks may well now be in order.  Too, as mentioned back at New Year in forecasting 3262 for this year’s high, we specifically stated that the road to that level can reasonably pass through the lower 2500s.  And what an additional buying opportunity that would be.  As is regularly said in this business, we’ll see…

    In seeing to the StateSide economy, the Conference Board issued January’s “Leading Indicators” as having had an on-balance decline of -0.3%, whereas as next depicted in the Economic Barometer, that month’s metrics have instead sported a bit of an up bend.  The difference lies in the Conference Board’s assemblage of 10 key monthly indicators versus our aggregation of some 50 metrics.  To the Board’s credit, they regularly make prior month revisions such that come February’s report (20 March) we may see January’s result bumped back up a pip or two: 

    Either way, February metrics from last week showed quite notable month-over-month declines in the National Association of Home Builders Index, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and in the revision to the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey.  And the ensuing week brings the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for January of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

    But stranger still:  the stock market actually went down on the poor news!  This hasn’t materially happened (without looking it all up) since the March 2020 onset of COVID.  Indeed the new paradigm since then has strictly been “Earnings and economic data are irrelevant because bad news means the Fed has to cut rates!”  Or has that strategy of buying stocks on negative news just stopped working?

    With the aforementioned S&P 500 p/e ratio now 45.7x, are earnings soon to matter again?  With the annualized dividend yield on the S&P now 1.253%, is investing $100,000 in the mighty Index worth the $1,253 return in addition to it being hoovered away and then some should stocks suffer?  After all, for the 45 years from 1980 through 2024, the S&P has actually posted years that were down, (’tis said younger traders don’t understand that), in fact on average once every four years … but there’s been only one down year in the past six!  Oh no, say it ain’t so!

    And yet, $100,000 invested in the U.S. One-Year Treasury Bill now shall return $4,168:  that’s more than triple the S&P’s yield and you get your money back!  What a concept, eh?  Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame … think about it.  Once again, on verra…

    Too scary, let alone risky, is the stock market.  So let’s get back to Gold …  Good ol’ Gold!

    And turning to our two-panel Gold graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, never in our immediate memory have we ever seen such a pasting on the ceiling for the baby blue dots of trend consistency.  Year-to-date, price has been as close to “straight up” as is conceivable.  ‘Course, Gold being a major liquid market, such trend shan’t last; but ’tis been the most amazing ride of late.  As for the Profile, note that volume-dominant support falls away below 2931:

    Then there’s “poor ol’ Sister Silver”, albeit trading in the 33s, hardly is she “poor”.  But in her like graphic, she’s not been (at left) as robustly up as has been Gold, whilst per her Profile (at right) she’s jammed into the center of a trading range essentially spanning from 32.25 up to 33.40.  Yet priced to the century-to-date 68.8x average of the Gold/Silver ratio (the actual ratio currently 89.9x), Silver rather than at 32.83 today would instead be +31% higher at 42.90 … just in case you’re scoring at home:

    Speaking of scoring, to wrap, the U.S. Treasury (as you’ve no doubt read) presently “scores” the United States Bullion Depository supply of Gold at $42/oz.  Therein said facility — just on the outskirts of Fort Knox, Kentucky — is “officially” (in round numbers) some 147,300,000 ounces of Gold according to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), for an accounting value of $6,174,000,000.  That is how much the U.S. Federal Government spends about every 10 hours.  (Do the math if you must, starting with the annual spend of $6,740,000,000,000).  Makes ya feel kinda small, what?  However:  marked-to-market at $2950/oz. puts the value — were it all liquidated at that price — to a supply total of $433,650,000,000 which essentially would run the federal government for one month.  That’s it.