The Gold Update

The Gold Update: No. 830 – (11 October 2025) – “Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 830th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Silver’s New-Found Sky; Gold’s Gut-Punch from High; S&P’s Goodbye“

Ya gotta love October.  Silver finds fresh sky above 50 even as Gold takes a gut-punch from its new 4081 high, and the S&P at long last says “Goodbye!”  Recall our closing query from a week ago?

“I do, mmb.  You wrote:  ‘Have we crashed yet?’”

And, Squire, so the S&P has … or at least is appearing … to commence a crash.  For after all, giving up a full month of stock market gains yesterday (Friday) in just six hours is serious!  By Wall Street’s back-of-the-napkin estimate, stock market gains are generally given back at two-to-three times the pace of which they rise.  But yesterday’s selling was 21x the pace of a month’s entire gain!

“Also, what do you now mean, mmb, that Gold took a gut-punch, because it is at record highs!”

Squire, let’s summarize all three of these:  Silver, Gold, and the S&P.

  • Silver was the darling of this past week even in netting a wee loss (-0.9%) by settling yesterday (Friday) at 47.52.  Nonetheless, during both Thursday and Friday, “spot” Silver briefly traded for the first time ever over 50, indeed to as high in the sky as 51.24, albeit its more liquid December futures contract did not exceed 49.97, still an All-Time High of its own accord.  So:  Brava Brava Sista Silva!!

     

  • Gold too recorded new highs in exceeding 4000 on Tuesday at 00:28 GMT as we posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), moving further on Wednesday to the new All-Time High of 4081.  But come Thursday Gold got gut-punched in falling intraday high-to-low by -120 points, the eighth-largest same-day points’ loss thus far this century.  “Fortunately”, come Friday’s inflationary “Trump Tariff!” scare, Gold recovered to a record weekly close (admittedly -45 points below the week’s high) at 4036.  So:  Gold wins over Trump n’ China rare earth tariff tricks!

     

  • As for the S&P 500, we’ve gone on and on and on since its post-COVID recovery about the Index’s ridiculous overvaluation in this “Investing Age of Stoopid”; but the tariff indication of inflation — as we’ve oft cautioned stagflation — finally was the catalyst rightly to make it all go wrong.  What was amazing, upon the S&P actually opening higher to begin its Friday session, the “live” price/earnings ratio actually touched 50.0x!  ‘Twas as if those who actually can do math saw it and declared:  “That’s IT!  SELL!!“ 

Regardless of your catalytic choice, ‘twould appear “The Crash” at long last has perhaps begun.  So, as to “How low does the S&P go?”, let’s update our 50-year view of the S&P 500 with its yellow-bounded regression channel and red “had COVID never happened” channel.  The imbedded photo with the encircled p/e was taken just after Friday’s up opening.  Does the S&P return to its regression channel?

“So that little down hitch at the right is a ‘crash’, mmb?”

Squire, remember the “little down hitch” on Monday, 27 March 2000?  Come Thursday, 10 October 2002 that little S&P down hitch had morphed into a Huge Down Hitch of -50.5% across those two and one-half years, (aka “The DotComBomb”).

‘Course, no one knows if such magnitude of “crash” has again begun.  To be sure, high-level warnings of a stock market “drawdown” (a rather gentle way of expressing it) have been put forth over the past week by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and even the “oh hip-hip!” Bank of England.  Either way, we’ll say this:  the selling fear on Friday was nothing like we’ve sensed since 2007 into 2009, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there was “that other even worse” -57.7% plunge (aka “The FinCrisis”).

This time ’round, be it the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash, the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash or the “Look Ma! It’s that Assembled Inaccuracy!” crash, we remain wary of more significant S&P 500 downside, certainly in the near-term offing (a stinging double-entendre, if we may so say).

And despite Gold’s gut-punch, the metal on balance is likely good going forward, albeit levels continue to run extremely high above the smooth valuation line borne of price’s movement vis-à-vis those of the primary BEGOS components (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  To wit, courtesy of the “Reversion to the Mean Dept.” we offer the following two-panel graphic (gleaned from the website).  Gold at left is presently priced better than +300 points above its smooth line, whereas the S&P (futures) at right on Friday alone fully reverted to same, and then some.  To repeat:  yesterday’s session saw the S&P give up a full month of gains since 11 September in a single day!  That’s “fear”, baby:

As for Gold’s weekly bars, here they are.  A fabulous picture … although perhaps worthy of reprising J.E. Levine’s “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A., ’77].  Regardless, from a year ago-to-date, they’re certainly lookin’ GREAT!

Perhaps not so great, indeed running late, is the Economic Barometer.  Of the 16 incoming metrics thus far due in October — given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown” — a mere five have arrived live, including only two this past week.  October’s University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey down-ticked a pip, and August’s change in Consumer Credit moved nary a wit.  So here’s how the Baro now sits:

Yet sitting ever-pretty are the precious metals.  Behold our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  In both cases, the “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency have been above the key +80% axis for 23 consecutive trading days, (which for those of you scoring at home is longer than a whole month).  However within Friday’s S&P 500 chaos, neither metal even as a safe-haven was able to reattain its prior day’s high.  Remember the FinCrisis’ “Black Swan” during which “everything” initially went well down?  ‘Tis just something of which to be aware:

Too, we’ve the two-panel graphic of the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right).  Per the volume-dominant price labels, Gold sees support at 4006 whilst Silver appears more contained for the moment between 48.40 on the upside and 47.25 on the downside.  Indeed as Silver didn’t fully keep pace with Gold into week’s end, the Gold/Silver ratio rose from the prior Friday’s 81.6x level to now 84.9x:

Toward closing, we’ve not stacked it up since mid-August.  So let’s have a look; note therein for the Stack’s first time that “Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement” is not at present on top, the yellow metal having achieved (as you know if you are regular reader) such Fair Value a week earlier:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  4081 (08 October 2025)
2025’s High:  4081 (08 October 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 4081 (from 3793) = +288 points or +7.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  4061 (08 October 2025)
Trading Resistance:  4059
Gold Currently:  4036, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  69 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3952
Trading Support:  notable Profile nodes:  3892 / 3854 / 3844
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3870
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  3548
The 300-Day Moving Average:  3036 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To wrap, does another “Black Monday” await the S&P?  Instead, shall the FinMedia (which typically suffers ratings declines in bear markets) come to the rescue emphasizing “all that money piling up on the sidelines will come back into the market”?  Or in reality:  is it the painful withdrawal of margin?  “Uh-oh…”

Just don’t you get caught with with a hole in your bankroll!  Rather, (hat-tip CDS), ride Gold’s rise above its blow hole!  “WHOA!”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 829 – (04 October 2025) – “Gold Achieves Fair Value”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 829th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 October 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Achieves Fair Value“

If for some inexcusably unconscionable reason you missed Tuesday’s Prescient Commentary and/or our entry on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), we herein repeat same for you stragglers:  “Gold at 00:05 GMT this morning reached its Dollar debasement value of 3865”.

Indeed en route to settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 3912, Gold traded to yet another All-Time High at 3923 on Thursday.  As for Sweet Sister Silver, she traded up to her own 14-year high at 48.33 toward closing the week at 47.97, +63.8% net year-to-date and well-outpacing Gold’s nonetheless splendid net gain of +48.2% thus far in 2025.

But the Big Gold Story is — for the first time arithmetically since the week ending on Halloween, 31 October 1980 (price then 642) — Gold has now eclipsed our quintessential valuation of 3867.  ‘Tis thus “fair” to say Gold has finally achieved its Fair Value.

“Which is slightly different than the above Scoreboard’s right-hand graphic, correct mmb?”

Spot-on as ever you are, dear Squire.  The Gold Scoreboard — the long-standing opening hallmark of The Gold Update — depicts that graphic on a dual scale:  one for the StateSide Money Supply (“M2” basis) and one for the price of Gold.  The key point therein is to directionally correlate Gold in concert with M2.  However, let’s now look at Gold relative to its actual Fair Value.

“The difference being, mmb?”

Squire already well knows the difference, but he loves to infuse the occasional dramatic pause.  Price itself (which we measure vis-à-vis its “continuous futures contract” as ’tis far and away the most liquid medium for trading Gold) is simply that:  the price of Gold (plus an essentially immaterial amount of eroding premium, currently +0.7% basis December’s expiry).

The Fair Value of Gold however, is a different, more salient and leading measure as to where price “ought be”.  The calculation from the M2 starting point as just noted (31 October ’80, thank you Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), is then routinely revised to account for the increase in M2 (basically the de facto liquid measure of the world’s reserve currency) as further adjusted for the increase in the supply of Gold itself.  For the more there is of something, the less ’tis worth.  And Gold tonnage since back in 1980 has increased by some 2.3x effectively detracting from value.

Regardless of the increasing supply of the yellow metal, M2 today is +1,293% of what ’twas back in 1980 and thus is the primary debasing driver of Gold.  So putting it all together, we same-scale chart both Gold and its Fair Value — et voilà — we’re finally there!  ‘Tis a crossing sight to behold:

‘Course as shown in the graphic, the last time Gold nearly achieved Fair Value was back in September of 2011, price then embarking on a worse than -47% slide into December 2015.  (You long-time readers may recall our writing of Gold as having “gotten ahead of itself”).  And no, this time ’round we don’t perceive a repeat of such decline.

In fact, present Gold hype abounds!  (One wonders where “they” have been for so many of these past years).  Moreover, it suddenly seems that everyone’s become a Gold expert.  “Oh, it’s the debt!” they say.  “Oh, it’s Trump!” they say.  “Oh, it’s global conflict!” they say.  Far be it from us to stand in the way of what “they” say.  But at the end of the day, ’tis currency erosion by which Gold makes hay.

Further, Gold being a very liquid market — which as do all liquid markets — trends upward, downward and sideways.  Too, from the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.”, every form of Gold bought is sold to that buyer by the seller at the agreed-upon price.  And price can become quite excessively extended to the upside as is Gold’s current case, irrespective of what “they” say.  For example, by deMeadville’s “textbook technicals” (a cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics), Gold is now 25 consecutive trading days “overbought.”

“Well, mmb, that probably won’t be on CNBS…”

Squire, likely neither on Bloomy nor FoxyB.  Certainly our next proprietary graphic is not FinMedia made for all to see:

From the website, the smooth line in the above upper panel is our near-term valuation for Gold (3621) based on price’s movement relative to those that comprise the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  And as we always remind, price inevitably reverts to its smooth valuation line, even as it too rises and falls.  The present difference per the lower panel oscillator shows price as +291 points “high” above valuation.

As well, you may have sensed the edginess on Gold’s sellside.  This past Tuesday within a four-hour period, Gold fell -79 points, only to regain it all and then some; but again on Thursday within three hours came a drop of -81 points.  The hysteria may be (as it continues to be for the S&P) that Gold is poised to go (using technical terminology) “rip-snort, el gonzo, upside nutz”.  Not that it shan’t, but there’s a lot of attractive Gold trading profit for the taking these days.  As certainly so there is for the S&P 500 as we go to the Economic Barometer:

The Baro was due to take in 13 metrics this past week … but just six (privately-generated) made the trip whilst the publicly-generated balance of seven offered zip.  Of those six reports, August’s Pending Home Sales and September’s Institute for Supply Management Index improved period-over-period; but worse were ADP’s negative Employment data, the ISM Services Index, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, all for September.

So:  are you confident?  As has been bandied about Wall Street over the years, when the government is out of the way, the markets positively play.  Thus far for the three trading days of “no-budget” October, the S&P has risen by as much as +0.9%, indeed closing for the first time above 6700 on Wednesday, and again so on both Thursday and Friday.  Cue “Do the Wall Street shuffle…” –[10cc, ’74].

‘Course, not so much shuffling upward as streaking higher has been Gold.  Here next we’ve the yellow metal’s two-panel graphic of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Achieving Fair Value is a beautiful thAng:

The white metal’s like graphic says it all:  Silver these past three months (below left) has been comprehensively adorned in her precious metal pinstripes (as opposed to her industrial metal jacket).  But by her Profile (below right), the 46.40-45.15 swath is quite light on volume, such that should Gold begin to correct as we expect, Silver swiftly would fall back through that zone with an eye to then trying to hold 44.15 as labeled:

To close, we were reminded this past week of a conservation away back in the days of AvidTrader, wherein by completely mindless (let alone official) observations, ’twas determined that the mighty Goldman Sachs was correct on its various outlooks a double-digit percentage of the time … that being 50%.

Now more than two decades later, we similarly query:  “Is Goldman Sachs capable of making up its mind?”  To wit, this courtesy of “The Right Hand Doesn’t Know What the Left Hand Is Doing Dept.”

  • Hat-tip Bloomy from this past Monday:  “Goldman Strategists Turn Bullish on Stocks as Recession Risk Low”

  • Hat-tip CNBC(S) from Friday:  “Goldman Boss David Solomon warns investors of a stock market drawdown”

Some things never change.  Yet we think ’tis The Boss who’s wiser.  Especially given the S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio having just settled the week at an inane 48.6x.  “Have we crashed yet?”

 Either way, don’t forget who truly is the boss:  Gold!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 828 – (27 September 2025) – “Gold Furthers Record Ticks; Silver Snags 46!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 828th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 27 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Furthers Record Ticks; Silver Snags 46!“

With so much to expend into month n’ quarter end, on to that we’ve prodigiously penned!

And straight out of the chute we start with our year-to-date BEGOS Markets Standings, the sweetest component of them all again topping the stack:  Sister Silver!  You tell ’em, Jackie:

No, thy eyes do not thee deceive:  Silver year-to-date is +58.3% in settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 46.37, yet remains short of her all-time high.  For as noted in last week’s piece:  “Silver’s all-time intraday high is 49.82 from 25 April 2011.”  Still, the Metals Triumvirate continues to dominate the Standings’ Top Three podium positions.

So as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars — price settling the week at 3790 — note at the foot of the following graphic the Gold/Silver ratio now down to 81.7x — which by that ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.3x means that relative to the yellow metal, the white metal still remains cheap!

‘Course, let us duly acknowledge that Gold is significantly upside-stretched at present, indeed scoring another All-Time High this past Tuesday at 3825 on approach to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3865.  To be sure by the website’s BEGOS valuation for Gold, price per the next graphic shows as +243 points “high”, and inevitably shall revert to the smooth grey line, even as it also is rising:

Thus with Silver in mind, upon Gold’s decline, the white metal — again still cheap relative to the yellow metal — shall as well unwind.

“So yer thinkin’ prices are gonna drop, eh mmb?”

As Squire well knows, Gold and Silver — indeed all of the BEGOS markets — are very liquid.  As such they all from period-to-period engage in one of three possible trends:  up, sideways, or down.  Too, with the FinMedia having of late actually giving notice to Gold, precious metals reports these days are richly ripe with hype.  Moreover, recall what happened the last time Gold graphically caught up to its Dollar debasement value (again see the the righthand panel of the opening Scoreboard):  price went from its then All-Time High of 1923 (06 September 2011) down to 1045 (03 December 2015), a better than four-year decline of -47.7%.

Are we expecting same again?  Hardly, albeit “Never Say Never Again” –[Taliafilm, Warner/Columbia-EMI, ’83].  But Gold’s reverting to its BEGOS valuation in the 3500s wouldn’t be a wit untoward, and (not to drag you too deeply into the technical weeds) there was structural support recorded this past April/May that lasted through August in the 3586 to 3208 range, the midpoint of which is 3397 … and structural midpoints are oft keenly eyed by those on the dip-buying side … just in case you’re scoring at home.

Speaking of scoring, the precious metals equites have been putting on a clinic!  For many-a-year we hear ’tis axiomatic that the equities outpace the yellow metal itself.  ‘Course we’ve seen as well that one both lives … and dies … by the equities’ leverage.  Yet from a year ago-to-date, the equities are livin’ large versus the Gold price.  Here are the percentage tracks from least-to-most for the whole gang featuring Gold itself +41%, Newmont (NEM) +53%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +70%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +73%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +80%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +90%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +95%.  Behold the beauty:

Comparatively, the ludicrously-overvalued, earnings-lacking Casino 500 is +16% across the same stint.  Oh yes, Gold is a bit over-extended near-term:  but at least ’tis properly priced in the area of its Dollar debasement value, whereas the S&P is priced at a whacky 48.4x earnings.  (Note:  “AI” [“Assembled Inaccuracy”] puts it at 25.9x; however, when we’ve fed “AI” the precise price/earnings formula — which we’ve herein on occasion posted — ’tis unable to perform the math.  Is your financial manager using “AI“?  Oh well).

Doing well of late is the Economic Barometer, sufficiently so that it brings into question the Federal Open Market Committee voting come 29 October to again reduce The Bank’s Funds rate.  And when the final revision to Q2 Gross Domestic Product was released this past Thursday, it put by that reasoning quite a sudden scare into the S&P, the futures sporting their second-worst 60-minute drop to that point of the week.  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, quarterly GDP is thrice reported, the final revision rarely of substantive change.  But this time, for Q2 annualized, it leapt from the second estimate of +3.3% to +3.8%, the biggest final upward revision since that for Q1 away back in 2015!  So suddenly, life is good!  Here’s the Baro, for which seven of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics improved over the prior period:

Along with the GDP surprise came the most anticipated data of the week, that comprising the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation as Personal Consumption Expenditures for August.  The “headline” number cooled from July’s +0.3% to +0.2% … but the more scruntinized “core” number heated from +0.2% to +0.3%.  All-in-all per our August 2025 Inflation Summary table, the 12-month summation’s average of +2.8% is still above the Fed’s desired +2.0% target, whilst that for August alone is spot on at +2.0%.  But the Fed having just cut can make those paces turn up:

Thus from “The Rising Tide of Inflation Lifts All Boats Dept.” we go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets, their respective grey trendlines ascending in each case:

“But the ‘Baby Blues’ are weaking for some of them, mmb…”

Squire understands trend consistency as measured by our baby blue dots, which (save for Oil) are rolling over to one degree or another.  In other words, the trends remain up, but as such are weakening, noticeably so for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, to an extent Copper, and just perhaps beginning for the S&P 500.

As for the precious metals, they remain nothing short of amazing by their 10-Market Profiles as shown next for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  The most volume-dominant price support and Market Magnet (per the website) for the yellow metal are 3719 and 3744, whilst respectively for the white metal they are 44.15 and 43.78 with Silver looking ever so great of late!

And to exemplify Gold’s latest All-Time High, we’ve the 16-year chart of price’s structure by the month from 2010 now well into 2025, impressively exceeding our year’s forecast 3262 high.  Or to reprise the late, great, StateSide sportscaster Dick Enberg:  “Oh my!!”:

We started with Silver; let’s close with same.  The last time the Gold/Silver ratio was below its century-to-date average was well into the midst of COVID on 18 May 2021, (the white metal then priced at 28.29).  If anyone cares to comb back through the 227 missives penned since then to count how many times we’ve written “Don’t forget the Silver!”, do drop us a line.  In the meantime…

…keep towing the precious metals line!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 827 – (20 September 2025) – “Gold n’ S&P Highs for All to See!”

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The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 827th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 20 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold n’ S&P Highs for All to See!“

For a month which through the last dozen years hardly has been happy for Gold — and certainly century-to-date dreadful for the S&P 500 — let’s hear it here in this September of 2025 for All-Time Highs all ’round!  Whee-Heee!

Through the 14 trading days of this September-to-date, Gold has posted record highs in eight, toward settling yesterday (Friday) at an All-Time Weekly Closing High of 3719, the year-to-date gain now +40.9%.  Too for the S&P, albeit not always on the same day, there’ve also been eight days of record highs, the mighty Index settling the week at 6664, both a record daily and weekly close, the year-to-date performance now +13.3%.

Reprise from The Great Depression “The Dance of the Dollars” as crooned by the inimitable Ginger Rogers: “We’re in the money, We’re in the money…” –[Warner Bros., “Gold Diggers of 1933”].

Or as we’ve in more recent years occasionally quipped:  “Marked to market, everybody’s a millionaire; marked to reality, nobody’s worth squat.”

“So mmb, obviously the S&P hasn’t crashed yet, right?”

Rather, it has what we call “up-crashed”.  Squire is referring of course to last Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update per its title “Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)“  For in spirit with the Federal Open Market Committee having voted nearly unanimously this past Wednesday to lower The Bank’s Funds Rate by our anticipated -0.25% — (an event “priced-in” a few billion times) — the S&P 500 posted a +1.2% weekly rise, as did Gold gain +1.1%.  But specific to the S&P, how’s that price/earnings ratio of 48.4x workin’ out for ya?

But let’s instead turn the tables on Squire and ask him a question:

You have today $100,000 to invest for one year, and (excluding Gold), which of the following two options’ results would you select?

  • Option 1:  in a year’s time your $100,000 investment shall additionally have garnered $3,610 in yield such that you’ll then have $103,610;

  • Option 2:  in a year’s time your $100,000 investment shall additionally have garnered $1,171 in yield such that you’ll then have something in the range of $83,000 to $119,000.  Squire?

“Option 1, mmb, which is the one-year T-bill, ’cause Option 2 is the too much crazily-overvalued S&P.”

Smart boy is our Squire.  (For those of you scoring at home, Option 2’s $83k – $119k range includes the wee yield and is one standard deviation both above and below the S&P’s annual average percentage change through this century’s 24 completed years).

‘Course, given the perilously overvalued S&P today — similar to that just preceding the DotComBomb — a like fall of more than -50% in the S&P would instead place the low end of Option 2’s range just under $50k.

Further into a deep numerical dive, you may have seen last evening’s release by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the Commitments Of Traders for the S&P 500 futures:  ’tis net Short -225,100 positions, the most since that which preceded last year’s S&P demise from March into April.  Either way, have a nice day.

But to get on with good old Gold, century-to-date ’tis now +1,259%.  ‘Course the nattering nabobs of Gold negativism are always quick to point out that Gold has no yield.  We simply let them instead be happy with their S&P 500’s approximately +550% gain including yield across the same stint.

Now with respect to our opening Gold Scoreboard, price (3719) has been racing up toward the Dollar debasement value of 3866.  However, per the aforementioned FedFunds interest rate cut, that ought raise the debasement bar higher still as dough more affordably flows out through the Fed window.  Indeed this past week, the StateSide “M2” money supply reached its own all-time high of $22.207T.  That of course “supports” (not) the current S&P 500 market capitalization of $58.800T.  (Have we made mention in the past of the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash?)

Still, as glorious as has been Gold’s recent run, might it be (only temporarily) done?  Per the following website graphic of Gold’s value vis-à-vis its movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500), price today at 3719 is +241 points “high” above its smooth valuation line at 3479, (levels rounded to nearest whole number).  Across the graphic (excluding this most recent excursion), when price’s deviation has been at least this “high” by the lower panel’s oscillator, Gold within 21 trading days (one month) has declined by an average -6.1% (which from here would be -227 points into revisiting the upper 3400s).  All that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”:

Notwithstanding some wariness to potential near-term pullback, in turning to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, price has now recorded a fourth consecutive “higher high”.  ‘Course, hardly is that a record.  Twice this century Gold has recorded 11 weekly “higher highs” from late August into November of 2007 and again from early August into mid-October of 2010.  But we shan’t say “no” to now four-in-a-row:

Meanwhile, struggling to make any gains-in-a-row is the Econ Baro.  Specific to this past week’s streak of 14 incoming metrics:  four improved period-over-period (notably September’s Philly Fed Index and August’s “ex-auto” Retail Sales), five maintained their prior pace or level, and five were worse (notably September’s NY State Empire Index, plus August’s Housing/Permits data, along with everyone’s favourite lagging indicator of The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators).

Thus was the Fed’s rate cut bang on time?  Or shall next Friday’s release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures suggest the FOMC “pause” next time?  Regardless, scarcely does the Economic Barometer appear to be in its prime despite an S&P oh so sublime:

To be sure, Gold’s past five week’s have been nothing less than marvelous.  But as we next turn to our two panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, the rolling over of the “Baby Blues” are the early hint of this latest uptrend nearing its end, with the labeled 3683 as volume-dominant support:

As for Silver, the settle yesterday at 43.37 was her highest daily close since 22 August 2011 as well as her highest weekly close since that ending 25 April 2011; (Silver’s all-time intraday high is 49.82 from 25 April 2011).  Here as well are her “Baby Blues” (at left) and Profile (at right).  More broadly, the Gold/Silver ratio presently 85.8x maintains more upside in due course for Sister Silver:

Monday at 18:19 GMT brings 2025’s autumnal equinox, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there you call “the first day of fall”).  Query:  Shall “fall” arrive as a double entendre at Broad and Wall?  For the S&P has gone far beyond any dutiful call…

But you can stay secure with Gold through it all!

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 826 – (13 September 2025) – “Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 826th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 13 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Gold Gets the Cash (Ahead of S&P Crash?)“

Yes, Gold this past Tuesday by its “continuous contract” (for which the “front month” is December) touched 3700 — trading even further to a fresh All-Time High at 3715.

No, Gold wasn’t long-lived above 3700; however for 38 glorious Golden minutes ’twas a beautiful thAng.  Price then proceeded through the balance of the week to settle per the above Gold Scoreboard at 3681, now just -183 points beneath the Dollar debasement value of 3864.  And as detailed in last week’s missive, upon next eclipsing such key measure — regardless of when that may be — we’ll again judiciously reiterate (after 14 years) that Gold has “gotten ahead of itself”.  Do mind the above right-hand panel.  And whilst it has not yet happened, ’tis nonetheless fabulous to see Gold having almost caught all the way up to where it ought be brought, (so hopefully you’ve long ago bought).

More striking however is that across the past 242 trading days from last 26 September-to-date, Gold has achieved TEN +100-level milestones from 2700 to now 3700, (which for those of you scoring at home is a +37% increase in less than one year).  By comparison, remember when it took 2,251 consecutive trading days (basically nine years) for Gold to just get from 1900 on 22 August 2011 those +100 points higher to 2000 on 21 July 2020?  2,251 trading days just to gain +100 points!  But this most recent milestone run has averaged +100 points every 24 trading days!  Here’s the table:

“Although, mmb, the percentage increase from one to the next is always decreasing…”

Squire remains one of the few modern-day market mavens who does math.  And to be sure, from Gold 1900 to 2000 was a +5.3% increase, whereas this most recent 3600 to 3700 was just a +2.8% increase.

But let’s view it from the futures contract perspective, whereby with a $20k commodity account you can trade one Gold contract, and thus control 100 ounces of Gold; (as opposed to $20k covering only five physical ounces; which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is — by the futures — called “leverage”).

So:  Gold back then from 1900 to 2000 was a +100-point gain x $100/point = $10k profit, (your $20k account thus becoming $30k, or +50%) … but again, that took those noted nine years.  Now, in just less than one year, Gold has gone from 2700 to 3700, a +1,000-point gain x $100/point = $100k profit, (your $20k account instead becoming $120k, or +500%).

Therefore to Squire’s point, yes each successive +100-point milestone is a smaller percentage gain … but they’ve been coming far more rapidly, indeed perhaps too rapidly.  Here we update from the website our Market Value measure for Gold, price (3681) now showing as +260 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (3421) defined by the movement of our primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  And as we always say, price inevitably reverts to valuation:

As for Gold by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, the following blue-dotted Long stint is now eight weeks in duration with present price (3681) an admirable +423 points above the ensuing week’s “flip to Short” level (3258).  Gold’s EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) has narrowed a tad to 120 points, albeit that’s still some three weeks of cushion — barring a hard price fall — even with price (as just above noted) being fairly high above its BEGOS Markets valuation:

‘Course, having endlessly lost all sense of reasonable valuation is the S&P 500.

“Well, the Fed’s cutting rates beginning this Wednesday, mmb…”

Oh good grief, dear Squire.  How many times over how many weeks have the FinMedia reported time-and-again that the purported Federal Reserve’s Funds rate reduction has been “priced-in”?  ‘Tis been but 15 trading days since FedChair Powell in Wyoming suggested the possibility of a monetary policy shift, it thus  being FinMedia-deemed that a rate cut is “priced-in” for the S&P.  After which ’twas later “priced-in”, and then again “priced-in”.

Query:  how many times must the same event be “priced-in”?  We’re just asking, given the S&P 500 is recording all-time highs seemingly day-after-day, indeed for seven of the days since The Chairman’s address.

Yes, the StateSide job market has stalled as herein sliced and diced a week ago.  And despite August’s just-reported Consumer Price Index having doubled from its July pace of +0.2% to now +0.4% (remember we said the July spike in the Producer Price Index could well feed into August’s CPI), apparently such increasing inflation is ignorable and is also “priced-in”.  So by logic (a concept no longer useful in this Investing Age of Stoopid), are unsupportive earnings (the price/earnings ratio of the S&P now a staggeringly high 46.7x), plus perhaps stagflation, and now a re-stumbling StateSide economy also all “priced-in”?  Moreover:  at what point for equities chasers shall FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) morph into FONBO (“Fear Of Not Being Out”)?  What might the traditionally market-leading (until COVID) Economic Barometer urgently now trying to tell us?

Too, (not that we need be reminded), ’tis September, the historical results for which make it far and away the S&P’s worst losing month so far this century, (as we’ve previously cited, -32.3% when aggregating the prior 24 Septembers).  However:  that compiled, outright “crashes” have been instead typically owned by October, notably the hollowing-out of equities in the Garzarelli Cavatelli of ’87, the awkward Asian Contagion of ’97, and frighteningly so the FinCrisis of ’08.  Thus by this missive’s parenthetical portion of its title, next time ’round — whether ’tis the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash or the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash — we remain very sensitive to its eventual arrival (be it this month, next month, next year), such that ahead of said crash Gold’s been getting the cash.

Clearly appears ’tis the case as we next view the two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left, with those for Silver on the right.  Regular readers well know the baby blue dots  that depict the day-to-day consistency of the regression trend, and as you can see, the “Baby Blues” are our directional friend.  As for Silver’s rightmost high? 43 if you please!

And as continues that case of late, highs keep present prices in the 10-day Market Profiles as … well … high.  Below (at left) is that for Gold and (at right) for Silver.  With respect to the latter, 43 is great to see:  but were Silver priced to Gold by their ratio’s average century-to-date (69.3x vs. 86.2x today), rather than 43, Silver would now be 53!  Whee-Heee!

Thus into Fed week we go, the Open Market Committee expected to release their Policy Statement incorporating a rate cut (we see -25bp) come Wednesday at 18:00 GMT; the pop in August retail inflation is too much to warrant a “jumbo” rate cut of -50bp.  So does that in turn send the S&P 500 on a selling spree?  J.P. Morgan opines there may so be. For the S&P now being “priced to perfection”, ’tis all indeed “priced-in”, you see?

Pssst:  “Got Gold?”

Cheers!

…m…

The Gold Update: No. 825 – (06 September 2025) – “Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?”

by

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 825th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 06 September 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

“Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?“

Today is 06 September 2025.  Do you recall up to where Gold traded on this very date 14 years ago?

“On this day in 2011 price reached an all-time high of 1923, right mmb?”

Precisely so, Squire, yet then for nearly nine years ’twas never higher.  Rather, from that landmark day’s All-Time High of 1923, Gold embarked on an almost -46% correction to as low as 1045 on 03 December 2015, before fully recovering through the ensuing four and one-half years to reach 1942 on 27 July 2020 whilst COVID cloaked the globe.

And long-time readers may recall ’twas shortly after 06 September 2011 — indeed on 01 October 2011 in the 98th Edition of The Gold Update — we wrote that Gold had gotten “ahead of itself”.  As above shown in the righthand panel of the Gold Scoreboard, the price of Gold as graphed was exceeding the track of the green “M2” money supply line.

Now fast forward to today’s title, we query same:  “Is Gold (Again) Getting Ahead of Itself?”  The answer is (a little drumroll please…):  

No.  But:  ’tis not far from so doing!  Again per the Scoreboard, Gold settled its week yesterday (Friday) at 3640, an All-Time Closing High, recording en route an All-Time Intraday High of 3656.  And the current Dollar debasement value for Gold — even in duly adjusting for its own supply increase — is 3864.  That’s just +224 points (+6.2%) higher than here.  So given that Gold’s current EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) is presently 124 points, come September’s end, Gold truly may have again gotten ahead of itself.  ‘Tis not a prediction, but well worth minding.

Too, by our Market Value graphic for Gold (wherein price’s movement is measured vis-à-vis those of the other primary markets which comprise BEGOS (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500), the yellow metal shows as currently +253 points “high” above valuation to which it always reverts (be it up or down) … just in case you’re scoring at home:

 

“But mmb, are you getting bearish then on Gold?”

Oh heavens no, dear Squire.  We’re merely sensitive to the fact that markets don’t move in a straight line, (save, ‘twould seem, for the ever-higher S&P 500).  As noted and per the above oscillator, price always reverts to the BEGOS valuation, which itself too (albeit more ponderously) rises and falls.

Meanwhile making the rounds in the midst of it all is a Goldman Sachs call (should the Fed fall) for Gold 5000.  We read the FinTimes piece of GS’ warning over “Trump political this” and “lost confidence that”.  But despite the mention of inflation, hardly was the key driver of Gold’s value directly stated:  again, (for you WestPalmBeachers down there) ’tis Dollar debasement.

So typically as is our wont, we did the math.  And to the nearest trillion, were the Federal Reserve to add another $6T to the StateSide money supply, ‘twould “equate” to valuing Gold at 5000.  Albeit, you’ll recall the $7T accommodation for COVID instead benefitted the S&P 500 rather than Gold.  Which is why the S&P to this day remains so dangerously overvalued:  “How’s that 45.3x price/earnings ratio workin’ out for ya?”  Cue Nat King Cole in parody from ’51: “Unsustainable…”.

Certainly sustaining its weekly Long trends is Gold as we turn to those bars from one year ago-to-date.  Our wee friend therein points toward present price being high above the dashed linear trendline; however the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now seven weeks in duration offers 421 points of safe space between here (3640) and there (3219).  Note too how our forecast high for this year (3262) is providing support at its green line.  All-in-all, quite the bullish picture to this point:

More broadly, here we’ve daily Gold from our opening discourse about price having gotten ahead of itself away back there in 2011.  Came the aforementioned correction, followed by years of battling ad nauseum in and about “The Box” (1240-1280, remember that?)  Yet now in retrospect, we surely can say “You’ve come a long way, baby!”

More recently, the Economic Barometer had been making its own way back up … until this past week having gone bottoms-up.  Of the 13 incoming metrics, just five improved period-over-period, notably so for August both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management.  Too, Productivity for Q2 was revised sharply higher from the initial +2.4% read to +3.3% … and you know what that means:  less jobs!

Thus barring inflation having spiked (as shall be determined in the new week), here comes the 17 September Fed cut, because for August, both ADP’S Employment and Labor’s Payrolls data were poor.  ADP reported job creation of less than 100k for the fifth time in the past seven months, prior to which such benchmark had not been missed since September 2023.  And Labor missed the 100k mark for the third consecutive month.  ‘Twill be interesting to see if the leading pace of July’s very  inflationary  Producer Price Index (+0.9%) feeds into that for August’s Consumer Price Index come Thursday.  Stay tuned…

Too, we must acknowledge the S&P 500 yesterday having reached another record high (6533), before taking a -51-point drubbing into the close (6482).  We see a wary September wearing on, so much so that we made this “X” remark (@deMeadvillePro) earlier in the week prior to yesterday’s still higher high:

“The S&P 500 ‘September Storm’ (per The Gold Update) is beginning.  How low do we go?

  • High: (28 August) 6508
  • Gap fill (08 May): 5720 (-12%)
  • Golden Ratio (high to 07 April low): 5474 (-16%)
  • 07 April low re-test: 4835 (-26%)
  • Current P/E:  44.1x”

    • As for record-setting Gold, here next we’ve our classic two-panel display of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Gold may be getting a tad stretched, but the baby blue dots of day-to-day trend consistency are nicely on the up move.

    Too for Silver, here’s the like graphic.  Her new-found 40s held through the entire week as she traded from as low as 40.56 to as high as 42.29.  The “Baby Blues’ (below left) are getting a bit of a boost, whilst by her Profile (below right) 41.60 shows as the most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight.  “Way to go, Sister Silver!”

    So to close for you, how stormy is becoming the September view?

    Even if ahead of itself, ‘tis best to keep Gold in your investment queue!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 824 – (30 August 2025) – “Gold Lookin’ Sporty; Silver Lovin’ Forty!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 824th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 30 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Lookin’ Sporty; Silver Lovin’ Forty!“

    Absolutely we must start with Sweet Sister Silver.  By her “continuous contract” (the front month for which is now December), she attained $40/oz. yesterday for the first time since (deep breath!) 21 September 2011; (for you math-challenged WestPalmBeachers down there, that is essentially 14 years ago).  “Brava, Brava, Sista Silva!!”

    ‘Tis been long overdue, and yet Silver still remains “La Cheapa”.  In settling out the week and August yesterday (Friday) at 40.75, the Gold/Silver ratio now at 86.3x nonetheless remains excessively above the century-to-date average of 69.3x.  Thus as fabulous as ’tis to see Silver lovin’ $40/oz., were she priced today at that ratio’s average, she’d instead be +25% higher at $50/oz., (indeed at 50.76 for those of you scoring at home).

    As for good old Gold, price settled the week lookin’ sporty at 3516, which too by its “continuous contract” (also now December) is another All-Time Closing High on both a daily and weekly basis; however the All-Time Intraday High remains 3431 from three weeks prior on 08 August.  But “sluggish seasonality” aside, we’ll take it.  Here are Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend nicely in place with price itself sitting upon the dashed regression trendline:

     

    And whilst September is the worst month of the year for S&P 500, (as herein penned a week ago that “…through the 24 Septembers century-to-date, that month’s cumulative S&P change is -32.3%…”), ’tis been for Gold on balance a decent month, its past 24 Septembers netting an all-in gain of +7.2%.  Too, by current conventional wisdom, Gold stands to benefit from this next 17 September Federal Open Market Committee vote to cut the FundsRate by -0.25%.  But:  ought they so do?  Let’s go to our completed StateSide inflation summary table for July, bearing in mind that red backgrounds are in excess of the Fed’s inflation target of 2%…

    …and “Uh-oh, say it ain’t so…” every measure now is backed in red.  ‘Course that can be resolved with a rate hike … else exacerbated with a rate cut.  Plus for August, both wholesale and retail inflation data shall be reported the week prior to the FOMC’s Policy Statement.  Either way, if next week brings poor data for August’s payrolls, that shall be cut-friendly.

    “But mmb, if jobs go down and inflation goes up, then what?”

    ‘Twould be ever so stagflative, dear Squire, such that the Fed may have to simply sit on its hands in being “…attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate…”  Not great.  Add in the ongoing, ridiculous overvaluation of the S&P 500, and September may not be a very happy month, (unless one holds Gold).

    Indeed as we next turn to our year-to-date standings of the BEGOS Markets, the Metals Triumvirate continues to own the podium, with Silver (as we’ve herein anticipated) rightly topping the stack in regaining $40/oz. by her rallying comeback:

    Therein we also see the severely-stretched S&P 500 up +9.8% to this point, but actually underperforming the full percentage changes of the prior two years.  And now with September in the balance, ‘twouldn’t be untoward by year-end to find the S&P in the red (see later our closing graphic).

    Yet in looking at the BEGOS bunch across the past 21 trading days (one month), let’s go ’round the horn by their respective daily bars, grey trendlines and “Baby Blues”, the dots which depict each trend’s day-to-day consistency.  And specific to the Bond, yesterday was its worst net daily change since 15 August, that day having been a week prior to non-committal FedChair Powell in Jackson Hole.  So, are the “Bond Ghouls” (hat-tip the late Louis Rukeyser) thinking the Fed may not cut come 17 September?  That would not make for a happy head of The Executive Branch in Washington: 

    However on a happier note, let’s go to Gold’s percentage track from one year ago-to-date along with our usual top-tier precious metals equities.  And from “worst-to-first” — the leverage of the equities over Gold really now standing out — they rank as:  Gold itself +38%, Newmont (NEM) +41%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +51%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +60%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +61%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +72%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%.  Cue Steve Miller from back in ’76: “Fly Like an Eagle”:

    Next let’s zoom in on the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and our star player Sister Silver on the right, the respective white bars being yesterday’s settles.  To borrow from a 1913 newspaper advertisement for Ohio’s Piqua Auto Supply House, “One look is worth a thousand words“.  Thus in this case, nothing else need be said:

    Too, words are challenging by which to come as we turn to Gold’s Structure per the monthly bars since 2010.  But unlike the S&P 500 — which for month-after-month has been valued pathetically beyond perfection despite unsupportive earnings — Gold remains priced (per our opening Scoreboard) at a discount to Dollar debasement.  Got Gold?

    For this week’s missive we’ve saved the Economic Barometer toward the end as it segues well with what we’re perceiving as the perfect September storm.  As aforementioned, across the past 24 years the S&P 500’s cumulative percentage changes for September come to -32.3%; moreover from the “7/11 Dept.”, seven of the past 11 Septembers have finished in the red.  And what if en rout the Fed does not budge on 17 September?

    Again, August job creation (or lack thereof) works in the Fed’s cutting favour.  And the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for the month just came in as quite sour, down from July’s 47.1 — and missing by a mile the consensus for 46.0 — at 41.5.  Yet on the other hand, (hat-tip Bloomy), Chicago FedPrez (and FOMC voting member) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee is less concerned about the employment picture than the inflation outlook.  Also, both Personal Income and Spending increased their paces for July.  Further too, of the past week’s 12 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just four were worse period-over-period.  Therefore:  does apparent economic strength warrant cutting the rate?  The perfect September storm indeed:

    Thus into September we go with this friendly graphic reminder:

    Reprised query:  “Do you know where your stops are?”

    Here’s to Gold and Super Stellar Silver!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 823 – (23 August 2025) – “Gold Gains a Little; Dollar Drools Spittle; Powell Non-Committal”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 823rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 23 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Gains a Little; Dollar Drools Spittle; Powell Non-Committal“

    With reference to the above title’s adjective “non-committal”, let’s open with another of our infamous pop quizzes!  Ready?

    In Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address yesterday (Friday) from ever-stunningly magnificent Jackson Hole, how many times did he say either the word “reduce” or “cut”?

    By FinMedia reports, multitudinous times.  Hat-tip NBC News in quoting one independent strategist:

    • “Today’s speech could not be more clear that Powell is ready to cut rates on September 17th…”

    But if you said “Not once!” — that neither “reduce” nor “cut” was mentioned — you are correct!

    Thus, the highlight of the “Nuthin’ but Fed!” week was The Chairman (to invoke an apt double negative) not saying the Open Market Committee would not cut rates.  Still, to his credit, he acknowledged the Fed’s current monetary stance as “modestly restrictive” such that the Eccles Building bunch shall “carefully” proceed to assess if conditions “may warrant” a shift in policy.

    But in which direction? Clearly from the opposite end of the spectrum, the prior week’s report of wholesale inflation via July’s Producer Price Index may well warrant a rate hike, given that month’s annualized +10.8% pace.  (Such fact was deftly skirted in the address, but sorry Jay baby,  somebody has to do the math).

    Regardless, more observed in the offing (double entendre) come the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures’ readings for July (due next Friday, 29 August) followed by August’s PPI (10 September) and (yikes?) Consumer Price Index (11 September).  Then we’ve the FOMC’s Policy Statement (17 September), centered in the month which for the S&P 500 historically is at its worst:  through the 24 Septembers century-to-date, that month’s cumulative S&P change is -32.3%.

    Either way, equities enthusiasts interpreted The Chairman’s remarks as 100% confirmation the Fed will cut its FundsRate on 17 September:  ’tis already a done deal, which in turn elicited the S&P 500 returning up to within two points (at 6479) of its all-time high (6481) in sporting the year’s 12th-best net daily gain (+1.5%). The mighty Index settled its week at 6467, putting the “live” price/earnings ratio at an affordable 45.5x and ever so attractive yield at 1.215%; (yes, for you WestPalmBeachers down there, ’tis italicized cynicism).

    So with the perception, (or perhaps better stated, “hope”) of cheaper StateSide money on the way, the Dollar drooled spittle.  The currency’s concoction called “Dixie” suffered on Friday its 13th-worst single-day high-to-low percentage drop (-1.3%) through the 166 trading sessions year-to-date, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  For when the U.S pays less, elsewhere may be best:  by sovereign rates, within “Dixie”, Canada (4.95%) tops the U.S. (4.50%); or beyond that, for example, there’s Iceland’s Króna (7.50%) if one can absorb a currency-risk profile that is more chilling.

    ‘Course here at deMeadville, we prefer an alternative currency:  Gold … albeit hardly is it robust at present.  For bang on time following last week’s piece “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness”, price just recorded (both by points and percentage) its narrowest trading week of the 34 year-to-date, toward settling at 3417. From low-to-high, Gold’s up week spanned “only” +70 points (+2.1%), netting a change of just half that.  Here ’tis as Gold gains a little:

    Indeed, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains comfortably Long with -241 points of “wiggle room” down to the ensuing week’s “flip-to-Short” level of 3176.  And any further foaming-at-the-mouth by the Dollar’s decline generally works favourably for Gold.  However, we duly point out that price’s daily parabolic trend is now Short as of last Tuesday.

    Yet, have a look at this next measure for assessing the ebb and flow of Gold:  direct from the both the website’s Market Rhythms and Gold pages, we bring you price’s 12-hour MACD (moving average convergence divergence).  With our usual disclaimer that nothing in hindsight works in perpetuity, this Market Rhythm of late has been top-rate.  The 10 most recent crossings (from 30 May-to-date) of the 12-hour MACD have produced — again in hindsight — minimum price follow-throughs of 20+ points either Long or Short, (even as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”).

    But we’ve this cautionary note thereto:  as suggested, the perfection of hindsight calculates exiting at 20 points of gain, for instead if having purely swung from one signal to the next — in turn suffering “give back” — ‘twould have been a consistently losing proposition.  Therefore (yet again):  cash management, as ever, is King.  Still, let’s graphically look at Gold’s 12-hour bars across the past five months:  when the MACD is positive, price is in green, else in red if the MACD is negative, such as to portray a reasonable sense of near-term direction.  At the foot of the graphic is the track of the MACD itself.

    “But hardly is it perfection, mmb, as you say there’s a lot of ‘give back’ in every case…”

    For which we’ve obligingly noted, Squire, per the aforementioned cash management quip.  Market Rhythms can be profitable along the trail, but eventually fail as the trend turns tail.

    And talking of turning tail, the Economic Barometer is appearing a bit pale.  To be sure, Spring’s decline reversed into Summer’s climb.  But since the Baro’s recent peak (31 July), reports have not been as sweet … which ought eventuate into a FedFunds rate cut, barring inflation’s eliciting a stagflative gut-punch.

    Thus far in August, the Econ Baro has taken in 37 metrics, of which only 14 (38%) have improved period-over-period.  So hardly was it a surprise that Thursday’s lagging indicators for July per the Conference Board’s report of “Leading Indicators” came in at -0.1%.  ‘Tis the sixth month in the past seven such measure has been negative … “so someone please fax the Fed and tell them to cut right now!”  Anyhooo, here’s the Baro as the “Dog Days of August” continue:

    Meanwhile, to Gold’s two-panel display we next go featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The Dollar’s end-of-week demise gave Gold some rise, albeit by the track of the baby blue dots depicting regression trend consistency, seasonal sluggishness continues.  The good news is per Gold’s Profile, present price appears well volume-supported:

    With the similar graphic display for Silver, whilst her price track (below left) remains much like that of the yellow metal, Friday’s “Powell Boost” moved the white metal well up into her Profile (below right).  That in turn brought the Gold/Silver ratio down to now 87.9x, its lowest daily reading so far this month.  ‘Course, with the ratio’s century-to-date average at 69.3x, Sister Silver is still a steal relative to Gold.  And as we mused two missives ago, 40.00 Silver is not that far to go from here at 38.80:

    To wrap, ’tis the Stack.

    The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3864
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3534 (08 August 2025)
    2025’s High:  3534 (08 August 2025)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3483 (07 August 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  by the Profile, none of note
    Gold Currently:  3417, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  44 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3417 / 3405 / 3394 / 3383 / 3369
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3394
    10-Session directional range:  down to to 3354 (from 3465) = -111 points or -3.2%
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  3176
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2883 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Next we’ve Summer’s final snoozer week for August … but for the Econ Baro robust?  Or a just a bust?  12 incoming metrics are scheduled including as aforementioned on Friday “The Big One”:  July’s PCE.  What shall it be?  One can wait and see…

    Or garner more Gold if you please!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 822 – (16 August 2025) – “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 822nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 16 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Sensing Seasonal Sluggishness“

    When we blow it, we’re obliged to show it.  For after last week’s scintillating song and dance about a “Double Shot of that Golden Love”, Gold this past week succumbed as a fallen dove, now further facing a stint of “sluggish seasonality” per the shaded strip in the above graphic encompassing these last four years.

    “Well, don’t beat up on yourself too much, mmb, as you did leave the door open for a down week…”

    And “down” indeed was this past week’s direction, Squire, Gold settling yesterday (Friday) at 3382, price sporting just its 11th lower week of the 33 year-to-date, and therein the fifth worst of those 11 downers by both percentage (-2.2%) and points (-77).  But to Squire’s observance, let’s update our cautionary graphic from a week ago of John Bollinger’s Bands on Gold by the day since April.  This is the original graphic then presented, onto which we’ve added the past week’s five trading days:

    You’ll recall a week ago our opining that — despite Gold having pierced the upper band — that this time price would break even more to the upside (the “?”) rather than decline (the “!”) as otherwise has been its wont as you can see per the prior “white lines” following such upside piercings.  So technically the upper band as a barrier again prevailed, as did fundamentally the 180° reversal on the initial Swiss Gold “Trump Tariff!”  price spike.  Note too in the graphic that Gold’s recently new daily parabolic Long trend (the rightmost blue dots below price) appears to be nearing its end.

    Fortunately as we turn to Gold’s bars from a year ago-to-date, the blue-dotted weekly parabolic Long trend is still easily in force, price today at 3382 substantially above the “flip-to-Short” level for the coming week of 3162, albeit as entitled, “sluggish seasonality” may be ensuing:

     

    Indeed as highlighted by the shaded band in our opening Gold Scoreboard, we are entering what through the years has been a period of “sluggish seasonality” for Gold:  century-to-date, the median net change for Gold across these next three calendar weeks has been 2% either way.  ‘Tis that time of year when the so-called “Dog Days of August” remind us from mid-month onward that vacations still linger ahead of the markets’ September hand-wringer.  For even as the “Casino 500” (its “live” price/earnings ratio now 46.3x) ascends ever further up into the Stoopid Zone, the amount of money requisite today to move the mighty S&P one point is but 50% of that just two months ago on 16 June.

    ‘Course, that won’t be on CNBS, but we are very wary of just how thin (emboldened) markets have become, which adds of course to the case for a massive “correction” (mildly put) come the fall (double entendre).  Query:  do you know where your equities’ stops are?

    “But Q2 Earnings Season just finished and it was pretty good, eh mmb?”

    Squire, ’twas fairly ok.  As usual, the FinMedia fawned all over the beating of estimates (marketing tool) rather than comparatively assessing results vis-à-vis the prior year’s like quarter (your investment).

    Specific to the S&P 500, 79% of the 435 reporting constituents exceeded analysts’ estimates, the largest percentage since Q2 of 2024.  As to the far more important reality of companies actually having made more money for shareholders, such ignored stat of 67% so did:  that’s one pip above the 66% average for such year-over-year quarterly improvement across the past nine years.  Here’s our chart by the quarter since 2017 for the percentage of reports beating estimates versus actually improving, (the dashed green line being the evolving average thereto):

    And thus speaking of stocks, let’s straightaway segue to the Economic Barometer along with the S&P 500 (red line) from a year ago-to-date.  The S&P seemingly is making new highs by the day (regardless of constituents’ earnings support, and often the lack thereof), whilst the Econ Baro after its recent up binge is suddenly suffering a bit of a twinge.  The Baro took in 15 metrics this past week … of which only five bettered their prior period.  Thus from the “Math Dept.”  it stands to reason that rising stock prices + frail metric improvements = higher price/earnings ratios (meaning for those of you scoring at home that ’tis difficult for economically-challenged earnings to keep pace with higher stock prices).  ‘Course in this Investing Age of Stoopid, nobody cares (yet). Have a nice day:

    Moreover, therein came came the “Whopper of the Week“:  per the above graphic, wholesale inflation for July as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index roared in at +0.9% for both the headline and core readings, in turning bringing the headline 12-month summation to +2.9%, that for the core to +3.3%, and both annualized strictly by July to (deep breath…) +10.8%!  As penned Friday in the website’s Prescient  commentary:  “…July’s very inflationary PPI ought make it clear for no rate cut perhaps through the balance of this year…”  (Sorry Michelle).

    Yet notwithstanding the BLS arguably losing data credibility, the Federal Reserve leans more toward the Bureau of Economic Statistics for its Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation read:  ’tis due 29 August.  Then the next Open Market Committee Policy Statement comes 17 September, even after the BLS inflation data for August.  But if the data again is hot, do they … (don’t say it) … raise?  ‘Twould be marvy timing to match with a September S&P crash.  On verra…  Reprise:  do you know where your equities’ stops are?

    We know where our “Baby Blues” are for the precious metals:  they’re out of puff.  To our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left for Gold and on the right for Silver.  The baby blue dots reflect regression trend consistency, for which neither metal presently is positive, nor are the respective structures of their rightmost bars:

    Then too we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right).  Although the price of Gold obviously is down in the dumper, Silver sees mid-Profile support at the depicted 37.90 level.  But to avoid a Silver slip, Gold need get a grip:

    To wrap, we’ve already reviewed inflation’s “Whopper of the Week“.  Let us thus close with our favourite “Headline of the Week“, courtesy of Bloomy just last evening.  Ready?

    • “Wall Street Wrestles With Hedging Conundrum as Valuations Swell”.

    Cue a pet quip of ours:  “They’re just figuring this out now?”  ‘Tis to laugh, but let’s try to help those floundering in Manhattan’s financial canyons.  The S&P 500 settled yesterday at a near-record high 6450 with the aforementioned p/e ratio of 46.3x and paltry yield of 1.201%.  What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is in purchasing the S&P right now, you are paying $46.30 for something that earns $1, (plus some dividend change for your usage of gas station toilets), along with the thrill of your $46.30 being halved upon the next -50% market “correction”; (recall we’ve already had two such “corrections” thus far this century).  Instead, one can opt for the U.S. Treasury’s 3-month Bill currently yielding an annualized 4.112% and return of the Bill’s face value.  So what’s the conundrum, eh?

    “Well, you’d have to trust the U.S. Treasury’s solvency, mmb…”

    Good point, Squire.  So alternatively…

    Got yours?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 821 – (09 August 2025) – “Double Shot of that Golden Love”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 821st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 09 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Double Shot of that Golden Love“

    Back in ’63, Dick Holler & the Holidays crooned a tune (penned by Don Smith and Cyril Vetter) entitled “Double Shot (Of My Baby’s Love)”.  The catchy piece has since been covered ‘twould seem some 5,000 times, similar to Gold’s being recognized as real money for some 5,000 years.  Be that exaggerative or otherwise, we’ve just been gifted a “Double Shot of that Golden Love” as follows:

    • Shot One:  as you regular readers already know, just back on 25 July, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend formally flipped from Short-to-Long;

    • Shot Two:  price’s settle this past Thursday (3483) in turn confirmed Gold’s daily parabolic trend also flipping to Long.

    “I’m feelin’ the love there, mmb!”

    As well we ought, Squire.  Toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 3458, Gold’s “continuous contract” en route made an All-Time High at 3534, albeit that needs a bit of qualification, by which again we bullet-point three types:

    • Spot Gold:  is the de facto hard-money resource, the official All-Time High for which is 3500 as traded this past 22 April;

    • Continuous Gold:  is the chaining together of futures contracts (Gold’s most liquid trading form) such as to present (per our weekly bars graphic) a continuous history of the futures price, its new All-Time High just achieved as noted yesterday at 3534;

    • December Gold:  is the current so-called “front-month” futures contract, its All-Time High too achieved back on 22 April at 3586 (when June was then the “front-month”, with its 3510 high).

    Regardless of which All-Time High you prefer to apply, what we now see as key is December’s 3586 being relatively short-lived (no pun) given the timing of this fresh “Double Shot of that Golden Love”, should price evolve similarly as it has by both the various weekly and daily parabolic Long trends across the past 10 years.

    Recall from two missives ago our historical table of Gold’s prior 10 weekly parabolic Long trends having produced average upside price follow-through of +10%, which applied to this stint would find Gold well up into the 3600s.  And per our Market Rhythms’ analyses, Gold’s best study for pure swing consistency is its daily parabolics, presently ranked (on a 24-test basis) at No.1 of the 405 rhythms tested nightly.

    All of which in an encapsulated Golden nugget means we anticipate still higher highs through these ensuing weeks.

    That stated, even the best markets’ analyses are no holy grail, provably as signals can — and do — fail.  To wit, beware of John Bollinger and his Band(s).  The following graphic depicts December Gold by the day from this past April-to-date.  The two encircled rightmost wee blues dots are, of course, the commencement of this new daily parabolic Long trend for Gold.  However, we’ve also applied the two violet Bollinger Bands, the upper through which — at Friday’s open — price penetrated (thank you StateSide tariff on Swiss Gold … see our close).  Therein, note price’s imminent decline per the white lines after such prior upside penetrations:

    “But it’s different this time, right mmb?”

    Our sharp-eyed Squire gets it.  Unlike the graphic’s prior “white-line” declines following upper Bollinger Band penetrations occurring into already well-established parabolic Long — and even Short — trends, this time ’round we’ve the “Double Shot of that Golden Love” of both the weekly and daily versions having instead just commenced.  Further, being this near to the next All-Time High per the December contract (3586), we sense the net trading push is in that direction, (in turn slapping the Shorts silly).  So as we turn to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, clearly the slant is toward still higher levels:

    More broadly, here next we’ve Gold by the day across the past 15 years-to-date, notably with respect to price’s once highly-regarded 300-day moving average.  The Gold Short may argue that price is far too high above the average.  To which the Bull shall snort and retort that price today (3458) vis-à-vis the value of Gold by Dollar debasement (3861) is at a very attractive -10% discount.  Don’t pull the wool over the bull:

    Yet just as Gold remains undervalued relative to its most foundational metric of Dollar debasement, so does the S&P 500 remain overvalued (understatement) to its most foundational metric of earnings.  With but a week to run in Q2 Earnings Season, an above-average 79% have beaten The Street’s marketing tool known as “estimates” … but just 67% — only one pip above the historical mean — have improved their year-over-year quarterly performance.  Is it any wonder the “live” price/earnings ratio is 46.7x?  Baffling is the S&P red line in the Baro:

    As to the Econ Baro itself, the past week’s set of incoming data points elicited a bit of a negative bent:  of the eight reports, just three bettered their prior period result, Q2 Productivity being the star there in swinging from -1.8% in Q1 to now +2.4%.  The five stinkers were lowlighted by Factory Orders, after being +8.3% for May, shrinking -4.8% in June.  Oh yes, and with respect to last Tuesday’s -0.5% “the world is ending” drop in the S&P, ’twas ever so severely blamed on the Institute for Supply Management Services Index’s wee July drop from June’s to 50.8 to now 50.1.  ‘Course, this time of year, the FinMedia desks are staffed by summer interns:  “Hey, look at this plunge!  That’s headline stuff, man!”  (They’d be better off in Summer School learning arithmetic).

    As for Gold’s Friday “Spike n’ Plunge”, ’tis the rightmost bar below on the left as we view the lot across the past three months-to-date.  Whilst arguably a “failure day”, of greater import are the rising “Baby Blues” indicative of the regression uptrend nonetheless gaining strength.  Too, on the right, price remains in the upper-third of the 10-day Market Profile, the most volume-dominant underlying supporter being 3431:

    But not exactly similar is the like graphic for Silver.  Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are falling away as the regression trend has rotated to negative; but perhaps ’tis mostly momentary given her price getting a grip across recent sessions.  And by her Market Profile (below right), 38.25 shows as key support.  Moreover, how close is Sweet Sister Silver to 40!  She has not traded at that handle since 21 September 2011!  And we have to think that given Gold getting on the move per both its fresh daily and weekly parabolic Long trends, Silver ought finally get swept up over 40.  “C’mon Sister Silver!!”

    As teased, let’s close with the high-drama event of the week:  the evoking of “Tariff Terror!” on Gold bars  of both one kilogram and 100 ounces imported from Switzerland into the U.S.  And with the utmost respect for our beloved Swiss family to the north of us, we had to chuckle.  We don’t know how many folks StateSide regularly engage in buying 1kg bars of Swiss Gold (currently $122k/bar + 39% tariff = $170k/bar), let alone nearly triple that for a 100/oz. bar.  Regardless, our mobile phone here lit up with chaotic panic over the 39% imposition, (for which ’tis now said may be misinterpreted).

    ‘Course, unlike today’s FinMedia, the late great Paul Harvey would have additionally reported to us “the rest of the story”.  To be sure, after having settled Thursday at 3482,  four minutes into Friday’s session found Gold having spiked +1.5% to the aforementioned new “continuous contract” All-Time High of 3534.  But “left out of the story” was that 31 minutes into the session, Gold was back down to where it had ended Thursday.  Further, the Swiss Franc was completely docile over it all, trading just 54% of its EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) on Friday.  As for Gold, here is Friday’s first hour of trading by the minute, courtesy of the “If You Blinked, You Missed It Dept.”:

    Either way, our double-shot bottom line is:  do not miss out in owning Gold, and Silver too with $40/oz. in view!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 820 – (02 August 2025) – “Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 820th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 02 August 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Turbulence in The Metals Triumvirate“

    As you studied aficionados of deMeadville well know, we refer to those BEGOS Markets comprising Gold, Silver and Copper as “The Metals Triumvirate”.  And lately, turbulent indeed has been its components’ price paths:

    • Gold from 23 July through 30 July fell by as much as -5.4%;
    • Silver from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -9.1%;
    • Copper from 23 July through 31 July fell by as much as -27.3% (ain’t no typo).

    Then specific to the week just past, Silver had no net weekly gain, and worse, “economy-leading, but now tariff-butt-kicked” Copper had no hope, period.

    However, Gold was a gainer, its December contract settling yesterday (Friday) at 3416 for an actual net weekly advance of +0.7% (+23 points).  Gold’s so-called “continuous contract” gained +2.3% (+78 points) given +54 points of fresh price premium per the August contract having rolled forward to December.

    Thus, this being a graphics-rich “end-of-month, plus-a-day” edition of The Gold Update, let’s get going with the yellow metal’s weekly bars by the continuous contract from one year ago-to-date, highlighted by a second week of the fresh parabolic Long trend.  The run from here to the All-Time High (3510 on 22 April) is another +2.8% (+94 points).  And as we detailed a week ago, given recent parabolic Long trend history, that is reasonably within range during this stint:

    As for Sister Silver — sadly donned in her industrial metal jacket — she was pulled down in sympathy with Cousin Copper’s colossal collapse, the Gold/Silver ratio in turn leaping from 87.1x just a week ago to now 92.1x (as above depicted).  Surely Silver shall swiftly come to her senses and re-don her precious metal pinstripes.  Either way, she’s had an amazing year-to-date, second only to Gold as we turn to our BEGOS Markets Standings.  Think things are uncertain out there?  Look at the top three podium positions:

    Indeed for the precious metals at large, “Up!” has been “It!”  From this time a year ago-to-date, here we’ve the following percentage tracks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) +22%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +27%, Newmont (NEM) +32%, Gold itself +37%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) both +42%, and ever-amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +67%.  Is livin’ with equities’ leverage your favourite beverage?  Per the “It All Depends From Where You Start Dept.”, Gold itself has been the Big Winner from 2020-to-date:  +124%; the balance of the equities bunch then range from +103% for AEM down to +14% for PAAS … just in case yer scorin’ at home.  Here’s the year-over-year graphic:

    As entitled, “turbulence” has characterized The Metals Triumvirate of late.  ‘Tis starkly evident here in going ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets.  Each frame depicts that market’s last 21 trading days (one month), grey trendline and “Baby Blues”, the directionally-leading dots which define the trendline’s day-to-day consistency.  Specific to the metals’ turbulence, Gold has well-recovered most of its recent plunge; but not so Silver, nor clearly Copper.  However:  we see the biggest story therein as the S&P 500 (“SPOO”).  We’ve purposefully re-coloured several of its blue dots in red, as when they fall (from above the +80% area), we anticipate lower prices.  And akin to Copper, that’s one heckova long-anticipated S&P “Whoopsie!” in the lower righthand panel:

    “But was yesterday just a one-day wonder-plunge for the S&P, mmb?”

    Squire, if the market is at long-last coming to its senses, en route to reverting to important means — be they fundamental, technical or quantitative — no ’twas not a one-day wonder.  As posted only internally for deMeadville on Thursday evening, (the S&P then 6339 and now 6238):

    • “IF this is the beginning of the broad correction, the initial fib golden ratio retracement (basis today’s high to April’s low) is down to 5861; then the mid-point is 5673; then the full golden ratio retracement is to 5485.  Retracement to the top of the  55-year regression channel is  4513.  And retracement to the top of the “had covid never happened” regression channel is 2941.”

    But that boldly stated, you know how this market behaves in The Investing Age of Stoopid:   “Earnings mean nothing, stocks always triple, buy every dip!”

    “You always go on about ‘earnings mean nothing’, mmb…”

    And here is why, Squire.  Look at the ongoing Q2 Earnings Season, (with two weeks to run in the balance).  80% of the S&P 500 reporting constituents have beaten the investment banker’s marketing tool known as “estimates”.  Yeah, ok, so that’s cute.  But comparatively, only 65% have actually done better year-over-year, which is a slightly below average pace.  That never gets any notice.  And with the honestly-calculated “live” P/E of the S&P now 46.5x but hardly any dividend yield (1.233%) versus “risk-free” (gulp!) short-term U.S. dough paying 4.182%, the problem is obvious:  the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is not sustainable for price.  Period.  We’ve been through this before — and barring Stoopid continuing to prevail — here it comes again.  For whenever the next material correction does come, the fear factor shall be massive:  “But, we were never taught about ‘selling’!”  Have the popcorn ready.

    Moving on to the Federal Reserve, when was the last time you read dissent into the foot of the Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement?  Oh to be sure, there’s been some minor disagreement in recent years; but this past Wednesday, both Ms. Bowman and Mr. Waller voted in the minority for a -0.25 basis points reduction in the bank’s Funds Rate, which instead rightly was maintained in the target range of 4.25%-to-4.50%.

    Meanwhile, President Trump’s contention is that a rate cut is absolutely necessary because (paraphrasing):  “the economy is strong and inflation is low”.  Having spoken with a number of market mavens ’round here, all agree that opinion makes no economic sense.  Moreover, inflation has reversed its recent pace of slowing and is again growing.  Here’s our June Inflation Summary table, nonetheless noting therein the benign wholesale pace of the Producer Price Index.  Still, “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures ratcheted higher:

     

    As to the past week’s biggest surprise, for us ’twas the initial read of Stateside Q2 Gross Domestic Product:  the consensii had it pegged for a +2.5% annualized pace, whereas we wouldn’t have been surprised by a negative pace given both the leading Q2 fallout in the Economic Barometer along with the Conference Board’s lagging report of “Leading Indicators” which hasn’t been positive since last December.  So what happened?  The GDP came in at +3.0%.  To quote John Patrick McEnroe:  “You canNOT be SERious!!”  –[The All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, 22 June, 1981].  Let’s see what the first GDP revision is come 28 August.  Here’s the Baro:

    Indeed, of the Baro’s 18 incoming metrics last week, 10 improved period-over-period.  Cursiously though again, July’s ADP Employment creation directionally differed from Labor’s Payrolls.  The former beat consensus and had June favourably revised; the latter missed consensus and had June unfavourably revised.  Reprise:  “It depends thus on who’s counting what.“

    What we can count on from week-to-week are the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals.  And next on the left we’ve that for Gold (in December pricing), the present 3416 level being the white bar near the Profile’s center.  But on the right, Silver’s dallying with Copper finds her price (37.11) lower down in the stack.  “C’mon, Sister Silver…”:

    Naturally it being month-end, plus one trading day, here is the monthly Gold Structure for the past 15 years.  The rightmost green bar is merely Friday (yesterday) alone, it having been 01 August.  ‘Tis been quite the run for Gold across this time frame, ‘specially after only just two-to-four years ago when Gold’s infamous Triple-Top pricing was “Dancing on the ceiling…”, –[Lionel Richie, ’86]:

    Metals turbulence notwithstanding, next week is a bit more benign for the Econ Baro with just eight metrics due, including improved (purportedly) Productivity for Q2.  Are you productively maintaining a sound supply of Gold?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 819 – (26 July 2025) – “Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 819th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Ends Its Short Spell; But Then Falls Pell-Mell“

    We open with both Good News and Bad News for Gold:

    The Good News is this past Wednesday at 00:21 GMT, Gold provisionally ended its 10-week parabolic Short spell upon breaking above 3449, confirmation then coming at the (albeit quite a bit lower) 3339 settle yesterday (Friday).

    The Bad News is in surpassing 3449 by only a few points to 3452, Gold then fell pell-mell through the week’s balance to as low as 3323 — a three-day -3.7% El Plungo (technical term) of -129 points — en route to the noted 3339 settle.

    Thus Gold has begun its new weekly parabolic Long trend by going the wrong way, in turn sporting its sixth worst “points given up” from high to settle of the year’s 30 weeks-to-date.  ‘Twas not a beautiful thAng.  Either way, here year-over-year are Gold’s weekly bars, featuring its fresh rightmost encircled parabolic Long trend blue dot, which in itself always is a beautiful thAng:

    ‘Course, one trend’s inference is not necessarily that of all measures on the same time frame.  As herein posted in our 28 June missive, we’ve since updated Gold’s weekly bars for these past three calendar years along with the MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) study.  And by that construct, it keeps the “bad idea” of being Short — rather than Long — on the table, given the recent and still ongoing negative MACD crossover.  However, we don’t sense ’tis that worrying:

    Nonetheless cited, let’s go the “What To Do? Dept.”  Clearly by Gold’s upward slant across the above graphic, the Long side has been the right side.  ‘Tis easy to prove mathematically:  in purely swinging solely on the Short trends of Gold’s last five weekly MACD negative crossovers, the silly Shorts have amassed a single contract loss of -$57,500; whereas purely swinging on Gold’s last five weekly Parabolic Long trends is a single contract gain of +$69,600.  Reprise:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”  Case closed.

    “So because the parabolic trend now is up means another all-time high is coming, right mmb?”

    Squire, whilst over time inevitably yes, ’tis hardly “automatic” during this new Long stint.  But we conservatively give it a 60% chance of occurring given the following table’s statistics.  Therein we display the performance of Gold’s last 10 weekly parabolic Long trends.  Bearing in mind that from here at 3339, Gold need gain at least +5.2% on this trend to reach 3511, (the current All-Time High being 3510 since 22 April).  So why a 60% chance of getting there?  In the “Max Gain” column, six of the 10 trends bettered +5.2%.  Further, why “conservatively”?  Because the both the average and median gains of Long trend are basically +10%.  Moreover, solely in that +10% vacuum with durations running 13-15 weeks, November would bring us Gold 3700.  That’s not a predication, rather a reasonable assessment of potential upside range, barring this Long trend becoming Short-lived.  Here’s the table:

    And to be sure, there’s a lot on the mid-summer table to affect the price of Gold.  Most imminently, next Wednesday (30 July) brings The Big Double-Whammy of StateSide Q2 Gross Domestic Product followed by the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement.  Then two days hence brings 01 August and the introduction of more “Trump Tariffs!”

    Too, there’s this from the “Oh By The Way Dept.”  ‘Tis time for the U.S. Treasury to spritely come up with $7T to pay its noble holders of maturing Bills, Notes and Bonds.  According to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), as of this year’s Q1, operating cash amounted to about $406B, which combined with other monetary assets totaled a tad over $1T for 2024.  Thus by your six-year-old’s first grade arithmetic, the Treasury is about -$6T short of its looming funding requirements.

    So who or what is going to buy all this requisite new debt?  Here’s a thought:  remember that (as we herein mathematically constructed) “all” $7T of the COVID monetary “creation” essentially found its way into the S&P 500.  So, why not have the Treasury thus promote a “group sell” of $7T in stocks with the  proceeds moving into debt at its currently attractive rates?  ‘Tis so easy, a WestPalmBeacher can do it.

    “But mmb, that might crash the stock market…”

    The stock market, Squire, is so overdue for a harrowing crash, be it driven fundamentally, technically and/or quantitatively, a “group sell” to save the U.S. Treasury would be the perfect crash catalyst.

    But with respect to Gold (and barring such selling of stocks), should the ensuing Treasury auctions be feeble, ‘twould fall to the Fed being forced to make that next BIG accounting entry to buy up the difference.  And Gold, in turn, would go upside gonzo nuts (again, a technical term).

    Speaking of stocks, we’ve run out of ways to indeed express (purposeful repeat) how we’ve run out of ways to describe the LooneyTunes overvaluation of the S&P 500.  During recent years, we’ve herein detailed in-depth (using what is today an unknown science called “math”) sensible scenarios for the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash and the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.  Now let’s add to those the “That’s All, Folks!” crash, wherein upon it all going wrong, the market doesn’t so much crash as instead ’tis just closed, (rather akin to the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash).  Then again the Fed can create the difference and ’tis more upside gonzo nuts for Gold.

    As to the current state of the S&P, ’tis now 23 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”, as well as having arrived at our “extremely overbought” classification with a sub-par Q2 Earnings Season in process.  Oh yes, we saw the CNBC[S] end-of-week headline last evening:  “S&P 500 posts fifth straight record close this week, powered by solid earnings”.  Hardly are earnings “solid”.  To wit:

    In this era of dumbing-down earnings estimates to dirt, ’tis super easy to beat ’em:  so far for Q2, we’ve 149 S&P 500 constituents having reported, of which 79% have exceeded expectations!  Why typically, only 76% so do!  Sadly however, here’s where the “solid” earnings hocus-pocus loses focus.  In an average Earnings Season,  66% of the constituents improve their bottom lines over the like quarter of a year earlier.  To this point for Q2, such rate has slowed to 63%.  ‘Course that shan’t be on CNBS, Bloomy nor FoxyB.  But ’tis why the following multiple has gone beyond stoopid:

    Again, don’t argue nor ask “AI“; just do the math.  And per last week’s piece, yes, we still sense “The Sell” shall be ever-intense.

    As to the math that makes up the Economic Barometer, as anticipated, ’twas well ahead of last Monday’s lagging indicator known as the Conference Board’s “Leading Indicators”.  So severe had been June’s Econ Baro plunge, we knew the consensii for just -0.1% shrinkage in the June reading was too timid:  rather, it came in (no surprise) at -0.3%.  Too, the month’s Existing Home Sales slowed and Durable Orders shrank.  But bailing the Baro out by just the wee-est of bits was growth in June’s New Home Sales, plus a reduction in the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.  So below, we’ve the whole picture from one year ago-to-date.  Duly therein note the insert of the S&P 500 futures chart for the past month (21 trading days):  we made such a song-n’-dance a week ago about the baby blue dots of trend consistency being finally in decline … but they’ve suddenly lurched back up (per the three red dots).  “Perfect timing ain’t easy…”:

     

    Back to Gold, per our opening observation, ’tis a bit of a dismal start to the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend.  You can see the selling quite starkly in the lower left-hand panel following the rightmost high of last Wednesday, the “Baby Blues” having just kinked lower, too. As for the lower right-hand panel, Gold has formed quite a bevy of overhead volume-dominant resistors as labeled:

    The like graphic for Silver shows her having also just taken a bit of a beating per her daily bars from three months ago-to-date (at left).  Still, her 10-day Market Profile suggests some safety in the 38s (at right):

    We see next week as pivotal for both Gold and the S&P.  Inclusive of the GDP, the FOMC and the renewed tariffs spree come 18 metrics for the Econ Baro’s scrutiny. As well, Gold’s contract volume rolls from that for August into that for December with better than +50 points of fresh premium, merci!   Where might your money be?

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 818 – (19 July 2025) – “Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 818th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Stuck in Its Shell; Here Comes the S&P’s Sell“

    With Gold’s weekly parabolic trend still Short — uncannily so given there’s not been a wit of substantive price decline throughout — we open with British band Ace from back in ’75: “How lonnng… has this been goin’ onnn…”, such pop hit reaching Billboard’s Hot 100 No. 3 slot on Saturday, 05 April of that year, with Gold having settled the day before at 174.

    Fast forward to Gold having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3356 and ’tis a 50-year price increase of +1,829% … just in case you’re scoring at home.

    ‘Course, compared to the 1¢ cost in 1975 for one piece of Bazooka Bubble Gum, such piece today is  bulk-marketed for 24¢, an increase of +2,300%:  thus Gold is lagging bubble gum inflation.

    “And mmb, by the money supply, it’s about that too, eh?”

    Similarly so, Squire.  The StateSide “M2” money supply for April 1975 was $935B.  From then to today at $22T, ’tis +2,253%.  So by either measure, “Got Gold?”

    But as to our query via Ace for the duration of Gold’s current weekly parabolic Short trend, note a 10th rightmost red dot having now appeared on the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  Indeed, Gold appears ever so stuck it its shell of late:

    Moreover as you regular readers well know, a favourite quip of ours is “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  To wit, we’ve the following table of Gold’s last 10 (inclusive) weekly parabolic Short trends, the current stint as bordered in red.  In assessing the average price extremes at the table’s foot, price’s maximum decline — for which the silly Shorts seek — is basically half (-3.2%) that of the adversity suffered (+6.0%) during the course of the trade.  To be sure, success depends upon determining if decline precedes upside adversity or vice-versa, and at what point profit — if any — is realized.  And as the bordered box shows, this ongoing Short trend has recorded at most just a -0.4% decline versus +8.0% of a “pain in the Shorts” if you will:

    Albeit to be fair, such Short stints recorded from 2012 through 2015 instead squashed the Longs.  Markedly, from Gold’s high at 1923 on 06 September 2011 to the low at 1045 on 03 December 2015 was a -45.7% stunner.  Since then however, monetary debasement has been mostly moon-bound per our opening Gold Scoreboard’s right panel.

    As to “The Now”, regardless of Gold being shell-stuck in this continuing Short trend to nowhere, 10 weeks in duration is getting (dare we say) “Long” in the tooth.  Price’s expected weekly trading range is now 139 points (the daily currently 46 points).  So with present price (3356) now -93 points below the Short-to-Long price (3449), an ensuing firm week for Gold can flip the trend en route toward another All-Time High, (which presently remains 3510 from back on 22 April).  “Get Gold!”

    Next let’s shift gears to the second half of this missive’s title with respect to the pending S&P’s sell, which upon kicking in ought ring out many a Gold bell.  To peruse the FinMedia, in Stocks-Land all is well.  With pursuance of math a thing of the past, each outlet parroting what each other is reporting in turn portrays such happy stocks days.  Now let’s go to The Truth.

    First, fundamentally:

    • From CNBC[S] on Thursday:  “…Quarterly [Q2] earnings reports this week have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, fueling investor confidence…” the S&P in turn having recorded another all-time intra-day high yesterday at 6315, seriously?

    • Bloomy (yesterday):  “…markets are behaving rationally…”  The trailing 12-months price/earnings ratio of 46.9x is rational?

    • Morningstar yesterday:   “…New research finds that valuation expansion — not stronger fundamentals — has fueled US stocks’ dominance since 2008…”  They’re just figuring this out now?

    Let’s be specific about the young Q2 Earnings season to this point:  for the 503 constituents that comprise the S&P 500, we count 40 having thus far reported.  Oh to be sure, 83% of those have beaten estimates!  Ain’t that great?

    But wait:  Only 65% actually made more money than in Q2 a year ago.  Uh-oh.  Say it ain’t so:  “Well that wasn’t on the TV, Emeline!”

    Nor shall it be as ’tis beyond the paygrade of the participants engaged in The Investing Age Of Stoopid to calculate.  And to fairly acknowledge whilst ’tis still very early in Q2 Earnings Season, that 65% bottom line improvement thus far is less than the 66% for Q1, let alone the 69% for Q4.  Which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the pace of year-over-year quarterly earnings improvement is weakening.  Whoopsie!

    Second, technically:

    The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the last 18 trading days.  Hardly is that a record, but ’tis what ’tis.

    Further, let’s go inside the deMeadville proprietary numbers per the following display relating directly to the S&P 500 futures (aka the “Spoo”).  Per the below graphic, the left-hand panel is the Spoo’s daily bars for the past 21 trading days (one month).  So in sync with conventional wisdom, obviously, the market never goes down.

    However, the leading “Baby Blues” — those dots of trend consistency — have just settled below their key +80% axis as labeled at 79.7%.  From a year ago-to-date, such phenomenon has occurred but five other times leading to an average price drop within the ensuing 21 trading days of -172 points.  To be sure from here, ‘twould be less than a -3% correction, albeit the worst of the five prior cases would be basically be more than -7% down.  Such magnitude is not (yet) a prediction; rather ’tis smart of which to be wary.  The “SELL” in the table of the BEGOS Markets nightly readings of the “Baby Blues” is our alert to this condition, for which attention ought be paid:

    “But wait a sec, mmb, ’cause the economy’s suddenly roaring!  So much higher still for stocks, right?”

    Not necessarily, dear Squire.  A “roaring” (as you put it) economy means the Federal Open Market Committee shan’t vote to cut the FedFunds rate come 30 July, (eight trading days from today).  And disheartened cut expectations do not play well into equities.

    Still to Squire’s point, since 09 July the Economic Barometer has posted a shocking recovery:  ‘tis the largest 8-trading-day bounce for the Baro in its 27-year history!  Indeed for the 18 incoming metrics of just this past week, 14 improved period-over-period.  Standouts included June’s Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Core Retail Sales, and Housing Starts/Permits:  all improved, all beat consensii, and all had their May readings revised higher.

    As to inflation, there was quite a dichotomy between that for retail versus wholesale.  June’s Consumer Price Index pace leapt from +0.1% in May to +0.3%, yet the month’s Producer Price Index recorded no increase whatsoever.  Does that mean July shall be kinder to the consumer?  But then, there are more tariffs-a-brewin’!  Either way, for the recent Baro, ’tis been “Up, Up and Away, Olé!”

    Not to place a damper on all the equities’ and economics’ euphoria, we’ve nonetheless this from the “Feet on the Ground Reminders Dept.”  As noted, the FOMC releases its next Policy Statement on 30 July.  And preceding it that same morning comes the first peek at Q2’s Gross Domestic Product.  Per the Baro, we anticipate it shan’t be pretty.  Yet now suddenly, the economy (per Squire) is “roaring”, right?  Write it down, (double entendre).

    Meanwhile back to Gold we go with our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and on the right the 10-day Market Profile.  Because the “Baby Blues” again denoting trend consistency are essentially at 0%, it means that Gold of late is, well, trendless.  Nearby volume-dominant support and resistance are as labeled in the Profile:

    Silver however, on the heels on the prior week’s upside drama, fares better than Gold in the overall picture.  The climbing out of her “Baby Blues” (at left) are uptrend supportive, whereas in her Profile (at right) presently priced at 38.43 is just above the most volume-dominant supporter of 38.10.  Hang in there, Sister Silver!

    So with Gold still stuck in its shell but the S&P poised for a sell, let’s look at the Stack, for ’tis just swell:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3853
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3449
    10-Session directional range:  up to to 3389 (from 3291) = +98 points or +3.0%
    Trading Resistance:  by the Profile 3359 / 3370 / 3381
    Gold Currently:  3356, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  46 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3345 / 3334 / 3320 / 3311
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3342
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2798 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Into the new week can the Econ Baro seek a further peak?  Probably not, although neither should it succumb much, if at all:   just five metrics come due, Monday most notably bringing for June the Conference Board’s lagging indicator known as “Leading Indicators”.  Expectations are for the reading to remain negative as ’twas for May:  no argument here.

    As for our anticipated S&P 500 correction, here are a few P/E nuggets to bear in mind:

    • The day before the Garzarelli Crash of ’87 the P/E was 20.3x;
    • The day before commencement of the DotComBomb of ’00-’02 the P/E was 29.3x;
    • The day before the start of the FinCrisis of ’07-’09, the P/E was 18.7x.

    As aforementioned, ’tis now 46.9x, the S&P yielding less than one-third that of the “riskless” U.S. T-Bill.

    Note:  math-challenged “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) puts the S&P’s P/E at 25.9x … wrong.  (Just wait until “AI” gets its hands on your discretionary portfolio.  Reprise:  Whoopsie!)

    So to wrap:

    Query One:  “Do you know where your stocks’ stops are?”

    Query Two (again):  “Got Gold?“

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 817 – (12 July 2025) – “Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 817th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold May Be Boring, but Silver is Soaring!“

    “If I may open, mmb, Gold is now +27.7% this year:  no way that’s boring…”

    Admittedly, dear Squire, perhaps a bit exaggerated is our title’s “boring” description for Gold.  So far this century, the 28-week year-to-date increase of +27.7% ranks second only to such like stint during 2006:  so in that broader context, to your point, ’tis rather exhilarating, one has to say.

    Yet, on the heels of last week’s piece “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week…” — price having since settled yesterday (Friday) at 3370 — through this year’s 28 weeks ’twas Gold’s third narrowest as measured by percentage from low (3290) to high (3382), i.e. +2.8% … “boring…”

    “So a week’s range of less than 3% isn’t very, as you like to say ‘alacritive’, eh mmb?”

    Squire, ’tis certainly not very characteristic of 2025-to-date.  Thus far this year, Gold’s 20 up weeks have averaged a low-to-high range of +4.1% versus a high-to-low average range of -4.7% during the eight down weeks.  Thus this past week’s full range of +2.8% was rather skimpy.

    That noted, the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) suggests as an antonym for “skimpy” the word “abundant”.  And for Sweet Sister Silver, her week’s range — and moreover net percentage gain of +8.0%  — were very abundant, indeed as she found her price yesterday “Soaring!” to its highest daily close (39.08) since 21 September 2011!  ‘Twas her sixth-best weekly percentage gain so far this year (for which she’s +33.4% all told), in turn driving down the Gold/Silver ratio from 90.1x a week ago to now 86.3x … which nevertheless still means Silver is cheap given the ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.2x.  Means reversion is a beautiful thAng.

    To visualize what it means to find Gold “boring…” versus Silver “Soaring!” we’ve the following three-panel graphic of our Metals Triumvirate such as to include Copper “ROARING!!”, the red metal year-to-date now +38.8% and leading all eight of our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500).  The graphs’ bars as arrayed are their respective last 21 trading days (one month), replete with grey diagonal linear regression trendlines and the ever-popular “Baby Blues” which depict the day-to-day consistency of trend.  And obviously of late, Sister Silver — rather than adorned in her precious metal pinstripes — has instead opted for her industrial metal jacket so as to “party hearty” with Cousin Copper.  That noted however, Silver’s rightmost two bars (Thursday and Friday) are more directionally aligned with Gold than with Copper.  For at the end of the day, Sweet Sister Silver — like Gold — is money:

    In fact as a rare treat, let’s bring up Silver’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, the duration below of her blue-dotted Long trend now eight weeks.  (You did not forget the Silver, did you, mate?):

    Whereas in swerving back to poor ol’ boring Gold, the yellow metal just recorded its ninth week of red-dotted parabolic Short trend:

    As for Gold’s pace, ’tis run a bit out of puff of late.  Here we’ve Gold’s expected weekly trading range by points so far this year.  Note it has nearly doubled from back in January, but in the recent boredom has begun to wane, the current read for next week being 145 points, albeit price has underperformed the expected range these past four stints:

    But:  has the Economic Barometer finally ceased its wane?  To borrower from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement boilerplate, we too shall “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.  Either way, on the heels of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt having “X’d” a week ago “…the economy is BOOMING…” (yes really), this past week’s set of only four incoming metrics nonetheless on balance gave the Baro a wee boost.  Thereto, May’s Wholesale Inventories shank (a positive, suggesting goods are on the move), Initial Jobless Claims were less, and the U.S. Treasury actually recorded a budget surplus in June (again, yes really) for just the fifth time in three full years as (hat-tip Reuters) duty collections by U.S. customs posted a record fiscal-year high given (our descriptor) “Trump Tariffs!”  The week’s only weak metric was Consumer Credit having significantly slowed in May … so does that indicate the main driver of the U.S. economy is getting tapped out?  At least as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, tapped-out earnings (relative to price) continue not to matter.  Here’s the Baro:

    Moreover comes this ensuing week for which the Baro anticipates 18 metrics including retail and wholesale inflation for June.  Shall they suggest further cooling … or heating up in Summer’s swooning?  On verra…

    To the Precious Metals’ 10-day Market Profiles we turn for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  And to the yellow metal’s credit, in the latter part of the week it muscled up through quite a density of overhead volume-dominant resistance toward getting to this 3370 level.  As for the white metal, last week we’d already seen her underlying volume-dominant support, from which she soared yesterday as aforementioned to her highest daily settle in nearly 14 years!  Brava, Brava, Sister Silva!!

    And so we close with this from the “Hype of the Week Dept.” featuring Nvidia (NVDA).  (Even as we “don’t do stocks”, this was too good to avoid the curiosity of doing the math).  Ready?

    The mighty video card maker turned “AI” chipster now tops the S&P 500 market capitalization at just over $4T.  Thus for these last couple of days we’ve been hearing time and again that “Wow!  Nvidia’s worth over $4T!!” … except such use of the vernacular is incorrect.  ‘Tis worth nowhere near $4T.

    Rather, by the company’s balance sheet as recorded at the end of this past Q1, the net worth is $84B.  In other words, the amount of money invested in Nvidia as marked-to-market today is 48x what the company actually is worth; (that shan’t be on Bloomy, nor FoxyB, nor CNBS, neque alii).  Such stat is actually quite similar to that for Apple (AAPL)’s 47x; however, far more conservative is Microsoft (MSFT)’s 12x, even as its net worth is some four times greater than that of Nvidia.

    Still, for those of you scoring at home with a marked-to-market investment at present of, say, $10,000 in Nvidia, were the company to instantly (in theory) liquidate, you’d receive (if lucky after the bondholders) about $200, i.e. only 2% of “what you thought you had”.  Have a nice day.

    ‘Course the lesson for you WestPalmBeachers down there is:  when you buy shares in a publicly-traded company, it doesn’t get the money; it goes to the seller.  So try not to get carried away…

    And congrats if not having forgotten Soaring Sister Silver!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 816 – (05 July 2025) – “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 816th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 July 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s ‘Weak’ Up Week … and What We Bespeak“

    Through this year’s 27 trading weeks-to-date, the most recent one for Gold posted a unique set of parameters not yet recorded during 2025.  Ready?

    • Gold’s high for the week (3377) was lower than that prior (3414);
    • Too, Gold’s low for the week (3251) was lower than that prior (3267);
    • And yet, Gold’s “settle” yesterday (Friday) at 3347* was higher than that prior (3286).
      *We acknowledge that Friday’s trading session — given the StateSide holiday — is for settlement this Monday (07 July); thus the “official” weekly settle for Gold was Thursday’s 3336; however to keep you on the cutting edge of being properly informed, let’s go with Friday’s 3347, (because — for you WestPalmBeachers down there — Friday was after Thursday).

    “But by that accounting, a +60-point gain for the week isn’t ‘weak’, mmb…”

    To your point, Squire, we can wryly agree.  ‘Tis just that — generally speaking — lower highs and lower lows oft lead to still lower levels; thus ’twas a “weak week” perhaps in a leading sense.  And previous to this, Gold had not posted a lower weekly high and lower weekly low for a net up week since that ending 11 October 2024 … we tend to notice little things like that.

    Either way, what does it all mean?  Naturally none of us surely know, albeit after having last happened those 38 weeks ago in October, mid-November then found Gold some -132 points even lower, (just in case yer scoring at home).

    So, is that relevant in this case?  No fundamentally, given Gold broadly has so much higher to go.  Yet technically, this imbroglio may spell more downside to go per Gold’s weekly parabolic trend as we next show:

    Close inspection of the chart’s rightmost two bars depicts the lower highs and lows (red lines) yet the net upswing in price (green line). Too much information perhaps, but ’tis an unusual occurrence; and just because it led to still lower prices last time, hardly does that predict same this time.  Regardless as noted, whilst the U.S. yesterday celebrated its 249th anniversary of independence, Gold gained those additional +11 points from 3336 to 3347 in commencing Monday’s session on Friday.  Got it?  Great.

    Next let’s graphically state how Gold is trading of late.  The following two-panel display is culled from the website as updated each trading day.  Regular readers shall recognize on the left our comparing Gold to its smooth valuation line from three months ago-to-date, borne of price’s changes to those of the other primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P).  Price being below the smooth line (by points per the oscillator) is suggestive of lower levels near-term, the actual signal of course coming upon Gold having crossed beneath the line back on 24 June from 3372.  And on the right we’ve Gold’s EDTR (“Expected Daily Trading Range”) by the day from a year ago-to-date.  Amongst tariffs scuffles and geo-political troubles, the EDTR ran as high as 92.4 points back on 28 April, from which to today ’tis nearly halved such expectation to 53.8 points.  The notion is that much of Gold’s trading energy of late is dissipating, just in time for summer vacation:

    ‘Course on the grandiose scale of daily settles across these past 14 years, Gold is looking — well — Grand!  A concern however over Gold at present being nearly +21% above its 300-day moving average is that — historically — such percentage premium (or even higher) leads “on average” to a -8% fall in price within the ensuing 63 trading day, (i.e. one calendar quarter).  In round numbers from here, that’d be a drop of some -270 points; not a prediction, rather just something of which to be aware:

    Next let’s inject a little fun.  (Note:  per the website’s disclaimer and indeed under Monégasque law, we cannot, let alone are we licensed, to make formal trading recommendations).  Rather, the following is merely 100% hindsight from our daily internal work, (and as with all trading studies the following two examples shall eventually morph from profit into loss).  But as we’ve the Market Rhythms page on the website, here are two Gold technical studies which to date have been doing well:  on a 10-test basis ’tis the six-hour MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”), whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the four-hour Parabolics.  “Pure swing consistency” means literally that:  perpetually swinging back and forth on the signals from Long to Short (the latter as we oft quip “being a bad idea” with Gold).  Again as said, these signals eventually will fail, (just as will your ability to sit in front of the trading screen 24-hours per day for months on end):  yet to-date of late they’ve been pretty great … but you’re own your own, mate:

    Still not so great is the Economic Barometer.  Worse, it’s abject decline is compounded by the S&P 500 in absolute ignorance going the wrong way.  (Note the wee rightmost down hook by the S&P:  that accounts for the S&P futures selling off whilst StateSide folks were having their “Friday the 4th” BBQs).

    As to this past week, 12 metrics came into the Econ Baro, of which period-over-period six improved and six weakened.  Highlighting it all was this from the “In Whom Do You Believe Dept.”:  the Bureau of Labor Statistics found June’s Non-Farm Payrolls to have increased, beating consensus, with those for May revised upward; but by ADP’s Employment data, June Jobs actually shrank, missed consensus, and found May revised lower.  You cannot make this stuff up … regardless, the Baro remains way down:

    Near-term, back to Gold we go.  Below on the left are the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date along with the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency, of which now there is very little, such trend having rotated to negative.  And on the right in the 10-day Market Profile (which does not include Friday’s volume as ’tis reserved for Monday’s settle), obviously there is more overhead resistance versus underlying support:

    As for the white metal, at left the trend is still positive, albeit weakening as the “Baby Blues” fall.  But by her Profile at right, Silver appears more supported than does Gold.  ‘Course with the Gold/Silver ratio at 90.1x (the century-to-date average being only 69.1x), Sweet Sister Silver has a Long (pun intended) way to grow:

    Thus as the U.S. concludes its third holiday-shortened trading week of the last six (they’re getting a bit like France in that respect), Monday ’tis back to work right up to Labor Day (01 September).  But for the Econ Baro, next week brings really encouraging news:  just a wee four metrics are due such that the Baro likely doesn’t get bruised.  Thus let the complacency keep all enthused as The Investing Age of Stoopid continues!  Just don’t lose your shoes…

    Dem dogs r’ Gold-Smart!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 815 – (28 June 2025) – “Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 815th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 28 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold –> The (Short) Saga Continues…“

    Amazing, eh?  ‘Twas but a week ago we cited Gold having come within just four li’l ol’ points of flipping its weekly parabolic Short trend back to Long had 3480 traded.  But it didn’t transpire, nor since did price really rise toward the revised 3476 flip level for this past week.  Which means Gold just completed its seventh week of such Short trend, regardless of price having settled yesterday (Friday) at 3286 and thus still above where it all started at 3220 per the opening back on 19 May.

    However, Gold has now recorded back-to-back down weeks for only the second time during 2025 as we come into mid-year.  As well, ’twas Gold’s sixth down week in the last 10.  Thus year-over-year, here’s how it all looks with 26 weeks of 2025 in the books:

    Indeed at 3286, Gold sits just above our 3262 forecast high for this year, (not that it need be supportive).  Still, ’tis Gold’s lowest weekly settle across these past six.

    And now looms this rather ominous technical study:  a negative weekly MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) crossover, which to the trading/investing community at large is a tool far more visible than our own deMeadville analytics.  Here is the history of that MACD from 2023-to-date.  The good news is given Gold having recorded “nuthin’ but up” through this time frame, the prior such negative crossovers induced relatively little selling of substance, the average price drop having been only -52 points before the MACD’s next swing to positive.  However this new negative crossover appears more pronounced and from a significantly higher oscillative level.  Hat-tip David Cassidy’s LP from ’75:  “The Higher They Climb, The Harder They Fall”:

    On a nearer-term basis, let’s go ’round the horn for Gold inclusive of all eight BEGOS Markets by their daily bars for the last 21 trading days (one month) along with their baby blue dots of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  Note that at present, seven of the grey trendlines are positive:  only that for Gold has just rotated to negative, its “Baby Blues” therein dropping at a precipitous pace.  And as therein reminded  “Follow the Blues…”

    “But mmb, the Dollar is going down; just look above at the Euro and Swissie…”

    ‘Course as Squire knows, Gold plays no currency favourites.  And this year, the Buck has been losing the fiats’ “Ugly Dog Contest” as later exemplified in our wrap.

    Too, May’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expeditures at the “core” level came in hotter (+0.2%) than consensus (+0.1%, as ’twas too for April).  So that, plus the Fed’s being unaware of the plunging Economic Barometer (as we’ll see), likely keeps the Federal Open Market Committee from cutting the Funds Rate per their 30 July Policy Statement.  And yet as we go to the puke-green inflation table for May, whilst the 12-month summation average of +2.4% remains above the FOMC’s preference for +2.0%, May’s annualized readings (all of which — save for the “core” PCE — were just +0.1%) are indicative of inflation cooling.  But as we’ve said in the past, heaven forbid the Fed actually being ahead of the curve.  (At least we are).  Here’s the table:

    On to what the Fed, as noted, apparently doesn’t dread:  the Econ Baro being all but dead.  Yes, throughout the 27-year history of the Baro, there have been worse fallouts; however, they’ve regularly been followed by S&P 500 routs.  Not this time however:  neither the Fed nor the FinMedia nor most investors get it.  Rather, as the economy cringes, the S&P binges.  Reprise:  “Marked-to-market, everybody’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality, nobody’s worth squat” … especially given the S&P’s present market capitalization of $54.2T supported by a liquid StateSide “M2” money supply of but $22.0T.  That’s an “Uh-oh…”  Here’s the Baro:

    Back to Gold, and as (save for one trading day) ’tis month-end, let’s peek at the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold comparable to several top-tier precious metal equities.  So here’s what we’ve got from the bottom up:  Newmont (NEM) is +35%, bettered by Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +40%, Gold itself +42%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +50%, and amazing Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +79%.  ‘Course specific to this one-year time frame, only AEM is exhibiting the notable leverage play whilst the balance of the bunch are merely scattered ’round the yellow metal:

    Now to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right, wherein both panels echo the same sentiment:  “resistive”.  Still, on a century-to-date basis, the white metal remains the better value per the Gold/Silver ratio at 91.7x.  Were Silver instead priced to the ratio’s average (69.1x), ‘twould today be 47.57 … that’s +33% higher than the actual 35.84 level.  Again we refrain:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”

    Next to Gold’s Structure by the month from the year 2010-to-date.  Again acknowledging one trading day remains in June (the rightmost candle), nonetheless duly note the selling from these last three months’ respective highs, the 3400 level having thus become arduous to maintain:

    To wrap it up, ‘twouldn’t be month-end (less a day) without the BEGOS Markets’ Standings.  And through these six months, our Metals Triumvirate has dominated the podium:  none of the other markets thus far have fared better than fourth position.  For June, swapping the first two spots from May are Gold by Copper, the red metal having just recorded its fourth best week (+4.8%) of the year.  Meanwhile the non-earnings supportive S&P 500 miraculously  clings to a +5.0% gain, oblivious to its pending pain, (yes ’tis coming with a vengeance by any historical means-reversion measure of earnings multiples, the “live” price/earnings ratio at present 44.6x).  Moreover as earlier teased:  pity the poor Dollar!  The Dollar Index is -10.5% through the first half of this year.  That is Dixie’s worst first six months’ percentage drop since coming on line as a futures product 40 years ago!  Again cue the late, great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

                                                             

    But barring anything untoward (i.e. renewed geo-political jitters, an equity market collapse, the inevitable loss of confidence in the financial system), we shan’t be surprised to find Gold working lower through here.  Yet one can buy Gold’s dip to stay financially fit!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 814 – (21 June 2025) – “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 814th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 21 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Economy Mis-Read by Fed, but Gold’s Rally Turning Red?“

    Let’s celebrate today’s Summer Solstice (02:42 GMT) with the first sentence from The Federal Open Market Committee’s Policy Statement dated this past Wednesday, 18 June:

    “Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”

    Is that really so?  For as posted yesterday (Friday) on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), the Economic Barometer just reached an oscillative low not seen since 10 September 2009 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  Here ’tis, the Baro and S&P 500 having morphed from being in blissful harmony to comprehensive disconnection:

    Further, following the FOMC’s prior Policy Statement (07 May), 74 metrics have since come into the Econ Baro … with only 28 having improved period-over-period … which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “We’re going the wrong way!” despite the claim of the economy expanding “at a solid pace.”  Doubtless such disparity shan’t be on CNBS, et alia.

    Neither is Gold watching the Baro; otherwise one ought think the yellow metal would be soaring in “the knowledge” that the FOMC must next vote (30 July) to reduce the Funds Rate, further debasing the Dollar as dough then flows more easily through the Fed’s window into the the money supply.  It may be perennially behind the curve, but surely the Fed has the economy mis-read.  And as for the disconnect from the Baro by the S&P 500, has the latter transited from The Investing Age of Stoopid to that of basically brain-dead?  (More on that in our wrap).

    Instead — since the Mid-East conflict ramped up some six trading days ago on 13 June — Gold has been doing exactly what it does during geo-political duress:

    • first it swiftly gains ground;
    • then it all comes back down.

    To wit:  Gold settled Thursday 12 June at 3406.  Said conflict then erupted that Friday and through the weekend such as to find Gold by Monday (16 June) having scampered up to as high as 3476 … only to spend the balance of this past week selling off as is its geo-political wont down yesterday to 3356, a full -50 points lower than before ISR attacked IRN.

    “Sad to say, but these geo-political events look like pretty easy trades, eh mmb?”

    We don’t encourage that nature of risk, Squire, especially as “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.  But Gold’s geo-political “spikes n’ sinks” regularly pan out, the prime example being back on “911” in 2001.  Gold halted that terror-filled day at 276.  Following the ensuing days of no trading, Gold then worked higher to 296 come 21 September (+7.2%), the largest six-trading-day percentage leap of that year.  Yet a month on, Gold settled all the way back down at 276 on 22 October, the assault on the States “priced in” as if nothing had happened.  Moreover, it took until May of the following year before Gold permanently rose above the 200s.  Certainly more recently we’ve seen Gold “spike n’ sink” over RUS/UKR and now yet again with ISR/IRN, as well as on other examples that we’ve previously documented.

    As to the current case, ’twas somewhat surprising that Gold’s geo-political price spike was not enough to flip the weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long, even as we’d anticipated ‘twould in last week’s piece.  Thus Short remains said stint despite price having settled the week at 3384, still a good +164 points higher than when the trend “officially” began per 19 May’s opening trade at 3220, (i.e. “down” has been “up” as we graphically detailed a week ago).  And so to Gold’s updated weekly bars we go, a sixth red dot having joined the show:

    To be sure, that rightmost weekly bar came ever so close to the 3480 flip level, price reaching to as high as the aforementioned 3476 level … which in turn is the new hurdle for the ensuing week.

    But:  is the Short trend about to become (pardon the pun) elongated?  Per the following two-panel graphic of daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and Sister Silver on the right, we see the baby blue dots beginning to descend.  Mathematically, that means the two respective uptrends have begun to lose their consistency.  And as you regular readers and website viewers well know:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes.”  Here’s the graphic:

    Then we’ve this next double-panel view as culled from the website:  the precious metals’ Market Magnets, also for the past three months-to-date.  For both Gold at left and Silver at right, price has just moved beneath Magnet.  The rule in this case is to expect prices to further fall; however, given the on-balance strength of the yellow and white metals from May-to-date, such Magnet penetrations have suffered little downside follow-through.  Regardless, whether for near-term trading or in timing the placement of a broader-term strategy, price’s directional movement vis-à-vis its Magnet is a substantive leading tool.  And in this case with the aforeshown “Baby Blues” beginning to rollover, be thee not surprised to find prices move a little lower:

    Such near-term negativity noted, let’s next check the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  And whereas Gold is exhibiting underlying volume support at both 3361 and 3351 as labeled, we’ve none by this construct for Silver.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!  Too, for both metals, we also denote their overhead volume resistors:

    In sum, a bit more pullback in the precious metals ought not be of much concern, (that courtesy of the “Markets Don’t Move in a Straight Line Dept.”) even as we’ve key leading indicators that suggest a bit of a near-term a slip.  With 3384 Gold today — a -12% discount to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3827 — price’s best days remain well up the Golden Road.  Indeed, to eclipse the key 3476 level in the new week — and thus flip the weekly trend from Short back to Long — from here is a distance of +92 points.  Gold’s expected weekly trading range?  151 points.  Clearly doable, especially should another dose of geo-political jitters ensue.  Otherwise, some pullback looks due.

    To close, we query:  “Do you scare easily?”  If you’re invested in equities, the following fearful graphic arguably suggests running for cover.  Recall the disconnect with which we opened between the plunging Econ Baro and the flying S&P 500?  Scary.  More broadly for the S&P, really scary!  Such “Casino 500” today at 5968 is some +33% above the top of the yellow regression channel and the “trailing twelve months” price/earnings ratio of 43.5x essentially double any historical norm, (let alone practically triple Jerome B. Cohen’s “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”).

    As a fine friend said over coffee this morning “Next year’ll be a disaster for the stock market”, to which we quizzically responded “What about next week?”  Scary indeed:

    The good news of course is that all such “scariness” is mitigated given economics no longer have meaning, as neither do earnings.  Employing math is a thing of the past!  Or to reprise what a seasoned investor said to us here back in April:  “Nobody at Goldman [today] has ever experienced a down market.”  Then to close out the FinMedia week came this yesterday from Dow Jones Newswires:  “The Stock Market Has Taken a Lot of Pain for Not Much Gain.”  Look at the top of the above graphic.  They’ve no concept of what market pain is.

    Either way, don’t you get mis-read; get Gold instead!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 813 – (14 June 2025) – “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 813th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 14 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But“

    Gold’s (yes still) ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend was initially triggered on Monday, 12 May upon price trading down through 3243 (at 07:23 GMT).  ‘Twas confirmed by that week’s end, price opening on Monday, 19 May at 3220.  Since then, here is Gold’s continuous contract by the hour, replete with its regression channel:

    Why, even you WestPalmBeachers down there can see that price — rather than falling as is the rule within a Short trend — has instead been rising as is the exception.  However, for some two years, such Short trends have mostly been short-lived, pun intended.

    To wit:  across the past 94 weeks from that ending 01 September 2023 (Gold then 1966) through yesterday (Gold now 3453), 70 weeks have been within Long trends versus just 24 under Short trends.  And Gold having settled this past week as noted at 3453 — by the continuous contract an All-Time Daily & Weekly Closing High — such price is +76% above where ’twas on that date just 22 months ago.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.  Or as we’ve oft quipped and embedded in the above chart:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”

    ‘Course, whilst currency debasement is the primary driver of Gold, ramped-up geo-political jitters again abound, stressed by ISR/IRN on top of both ISR/PSE and RUS/UKR.  Plus later today StateSide come coast-to-coast protests versus the policies of the Executive Branch and its display of military might.

    So with all that in mind, we go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a fifth rightmost Short trend red dot:

    Because this Short trend technically (barely) is still in force, we again acknowledge the 2973-2844 support zone.  Nonetheless, the distance to flip the Short trend back Long is a mere +27 points above here at the 3840 level.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 152 points, (the daily alone now 62 points) the flip ought come quickly, even per an opening up gap on Monday should geo-political tensions escalate through this weekend.  Thus we’re just about there.

    “But as you usually say, mmb, price spikes on geo-politics don’t last very long…”

    True enough, Squire.  Yet should the trend flip to Long in the new week, reflipping it back to Short wouldn’t initially occur until 3123 trades, some -330 points below present price.  More importantly:  an imminent flip to Long puts a fresh All-Time High above 3510 squarely on the near-term table for Gold:  ’tis just +57 points from here.  So much for the Shorts singin’ “I’m struttin’ my stuff, y’all…” –[Elvin Bishop, ’75].  (Albeit we ought not disparage the Shorts as they accommodate taking the other side of the trade).

    Further for those of you scoring at home, through this year’s 24 trading weeks-to-date, Gold is now +31%, this last week’s gain being third-best by both percentage (+3.7%) and points (+122 points) as depicted in the above graphic.  Too, per the website’s “Gold” and “Market Rhythms” pages, Gold’s best Rhythm through its last ten iterations from 03 April-to-date has been the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) on price’s eight-hour series.  (But try not to get carried away).

    If anything ought be carried away (on a stretcher) ’tis the Economic Barometer.  As herein penned a week ago:  “…the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years…”

    Still, we’ve this from the “Taking the Good with the Bad Dept.”:  as the economy by the Baro is slowing — indeed outright shrinking — inflation for May as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooled; (May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE is not due until 27 June).  Thus the “s” word “stagflation” is not (as yet?) being made “officially” apparent, even if ’tis evident by your own personal engagement in commerce.  We certainly sense it:  the base cost of our triannual purchase of popping corn from the States (as ever so detailed in Gold Update No. 803 from this past 05 April) just increased +10.1% before shipping, tariff and value-added tax.  Yet at least The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June reached a three-month high, (but we can’t see why):

    ‘Course the true sentiment gainers — certainly so of late — are the precious metals.  Below we’ve the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The baby blues depicting day-to-day trend consistency have spritely leapt higher for both metals in recent weeks.  Regardless, in just the past few days, the yellow metal has garnered more of a geo-political bid than has the white metal, (lest we forget that in the week prior, Sweet Sister Silver gained +9.4% as opposed to just +0.5% for Gold).  Either way, both look great, all told:

    Too, life is good near Profile highs.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) we’ve their price ranges for the past fortnight as depicted by volume, the most heavily traded levels as labeled, and the white bars being Friday’s respective settles:

    And so toward the wrap here’s The Gold Stack:  what can be better than that?

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3825
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3480
    10-Session directional range:  up to to 3467 (from 3314) = +153 points or +4.6%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  none per the Profile
    Gold Currently:  3453, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  62 points)
    Trading Support:  notables by the Profile 3445 / 3399 / 3380 / 3351
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3385
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2721 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Come this Wednesday (18 June), the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its next Policy Statement.  Expectations call for the FOMC voting to continue maintaining the target range for its Funds Rate at 4.25%-to-4.50% regardless of the faltering Econ Baro and Q1 annualized GDP shrinkage of -0.2%.  However as you no doubt recall, the bugaboo coupled to that latter figure was the Q1 Chain Deflator of +3.7% … Ouch!  May’s inflation may have cooled, but given economic shrinkage, is there still stagflation linkage?  Perhaps rather than order popcorn by the pack, we ought do so by the pallet…

    …and thus keep more Gold and Silver in the wallet!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 812 – (07 June 2025) – “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 812th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 07 June 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Lies Low Whilst Silver Steals the Show“

    We simply must start with the spotlight on Silver:  Sweet Sister Silver!  As if shot out of a cannon this past Monday, Silver swiftly soared, by Wednesday reaching 36.27 — a level not having traded in better than 13 years (since 29 February 2012) — then onward to as high yesterday (Friday) as 36.51 before settling the week at 36.13  Just like that!

    Oh how many times through hundreds of missives have we stressed “Do NOT forget the Silver!”  For when Silver goes, she GOES!

    A stellar week indeed for Sister Silver.  Through now 1,275 trading weeks of the 21st century, this past weekly net gain of +9.4% was Silver’s 21st best, (the largest weekly net gain being +17.4% for that ending 27 March 2020 as COVID closed the globe).  And year-to-date, Silver is now +23.4%, within our Metals Triumvirate having passed Copper +20.1%, atop which Gold still leads +26.2%.

    But wait, there’s more:  for relative to Gold, Silver still remains cheap as we turn to the daily Gold/Silver ratio for these past 25 calendar years.

    And as you can therein see, the Gold/Silver ratio (now 92.2x) periodically returns to its evolving average (69.1x), at which today we’d find the white metal +33% higher at 48.22 versus the present price of 36.13.  Effectively as a rule of thumb, a ratio above 80x generally leads to higher Silver prices.

    “But a decline in gold without silver going up can also bring the ratio down, mmb…”

    Unlike the balance of the modern-day financial world, Squire does math.  And were Gold fundamentally overvalued, we’d be on the lookout for such declining ratio impetus.  To be sure, technically Gold remains in a weekly parabolic Short trend.  But by the de facto driver that is Dollar debasement, Gold today at 3331 is -13% undervalued per the opening Scoreboard’s implied 3824 level.  So let Silver also rise to the occasion.

    Still as noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short, price on balance lying low for the week in posting a net gain of just +0.5%, overwhelmed by Silver’s aforementioned +9.4% net gain.  In fact as a rare graphical bonus, here are Sister Silver’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date and — contra to Gold’s parabolic trend being Short — hers is Long per the three rightmost blue dots:

    In turning now to Gold’s weekly bars, the Short trend thus far actually “appears” up even as the rightmost red parabolic dots are in decline.  Yet price nevertheless has sported three “higher lows” in a row:

    Regardless, Gold intra-week had been up as much as +3.5% before basically “…giving it all away…”  –[Roger Daltery, ’73].  Thus the Short trend continues from which an ascent up through 3487 in the new week would initiate a new Long streak.  Such level is +156 points higher from here, which is not that unrealistic as Gold’s expected weekly trading range is presently 151 points.  But should the Short trend stubbornly persist, we remain mindful of the underlying 2973-2844 support zone as maintained on the above graphic.  Either way, for these past five days, the spotlight has shown upon Sweet Sister Silver per her cumulative percentage track versus that for Gold:

    ‘Course, doing all it can to avoid the spotlight is the Economic Barometer.  This past Wednesday, the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years — since 14 September 2009 — the StateSide economy then arduously trying to recovery from the depths of the FinCrisis.  And today, the Baro’s divergence from the happy-go-lucky-stuck-on-stoopid “Casino 500” stands as stark as perhaps we’ve ever seen (barring our clawing back through 27 years of Baro/S&P data).  Have a view, should you’ve the stomach to so do:

    But not to worry!  Rather, ’tis all OK!  Out of the Bond and into the S&P, “Olé!”  Hat-tip Bloomy yesterday, post-May Payrolls data:  “…Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth, prompting traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year … Jobs Surprise…”  Seriously?  “Jobs Surprise”?  Let’s see:  according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Non-Farm Payrolls” growth slowed from 147k in April — itself revised lower from 177k — to 139k in May.  Isn’t that going the wrong way?

    “But it beat the 130k consensus, mmb…”

    Ah yes, that’s it, Squire:  consensii are more important than reality.  Further, the pace of Hourly Earnings doubled from +0.2% to +0.4%.  So:  job growth is slowing and wages are rising.  Very much akin to the just revised read for Q1 Productivity:  it decreased -1.5% … but Unit Labor Costs increased +6.6%.  Remember the “S” word?  “Stagflation“?   “Got Gold? … Got SILVER?”

    Let’s next look first to Silver as we go to her two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  From 07 April’s low of 27.55 to this past week’s high at 36.51 is a 42-trading-day (two months) gain of +32.5%:  impressive!  Note the Profile’s dominant volume support areas of 34.65 and 33.40-33.25:

    Then second there’s Gold… good ol’ Gold!  By the baby blue dots of regression trend consistency (below left), Gold understandably lacks that of Silver; however, price’s gain across the three-month panel, too, is impressive!  A bit more daunting though is Gold’s Profile (below right) depicting notable volume resistance from 3380 up to 3399.  And we not be reminded that Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend still is in force:

    All-in-all, a stunning and well-overdue super week for Silver.  And again, relative to Gold, Silver is still a bargain.  But the inexorable passage of time marches ever onward, the ensuing week’s StateSide highlights being both retail and wholesale inflation readings for May.  Consensii for the Consumer Price Index sense same or an uptick from April’s pace, whilst the Producer Price Index is expected to have swung from DEflationary back to inflationary.  We therefore graphically query:

     

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 811 – (31 May 2025) – “Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 811th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 31 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Doesn’t Fall So Much As Stall“

    Is Gold in a weekly parabolic Short trend?  Yes.  Indeed, have four of the past six weeks been net down for Gold?  Yes.  Including this last one?  Yes.  Even with +27 points of fresh August premium just added to present price?  Yes.

    Yet with August Gold settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3313, price nonetheless is +162 points above that contract’s 3151 low of two weeks ago.  To be sure, Gold just completed its third week of this relatively new parabolic Short trend; but overall, price’s fall from the 22 April All-Time High of 3510 (basis June) appears more as a stall.  Let’s start with the weekly bars of Gold’s “continuous contract” from one year ago-to-date, (the August-only contract changes as noted in the right-hand margin):

    As to the depicted 2973-2844 structural support area, we feel it prudent to maintain that zone on the weekly graphic during the continuance of this Short trend, be there a more material price fall rather than merely this transitory stall.  For after all, Gold now at 3313 remains priced at a discount (-13%) to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3823.  Still, demonstrably it can take years if not decades for price to catch up.  ‘Course, the 18-month $1.5T dip in the StateSide “M2” money supply from $22.1T (18 April ’22) down to $20.6T (30 October ’23) allowed Gold to catch up a bit during that stint by some +6%.

    Moreover:  given the the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $52.0T being supported by today’s “M2” liquidity level of “just” $21.9T — upon it all going wrong and the Federal Reserve being called upon to “make up the difference” — the bid for Gold shall be impressive, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means the price shall skyrocket).

    And indeed year-to-date, Gold has already put on quite a fireworks display, running up and away from the pack of the other BEGOS Markets as we turn to their standings by percentage change through these first five months of 2025, the Metals Triumvirate yet again populating the podium:

    Note therein the S&P 500 being barely above water (+0.5%) to this point.  Currently 5912, the mighty Index is but -4.6% below Goldman Sach’s trimmed target of 6200.  But as we’ve ad nauseam gone on, sustaining a price/earnings ratio of now 46.8x with a wee yield of 1.305% versus the U.S. three-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.232% is delusionary.  (Unless the Treasury defaults, in which case the stock market would not crash; rather ‘twould simply close … until at least, again, the Fed “makes up the difference”).  Got Gold?

    Next we’ve got Gold’s percentage track from one year ago-to-date along with those of highly visible precious metals equities.  Ranking from worst-to-first, they presently are Pan American Silver (PAAS) +8%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +21%, Newmont (NEM) +24%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +40%, Gold itself +42%,  and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +71%.  Some might query why the equities haven’t (with the exception of AEM) outpaced Gold’s year-over-year +42% gain; but obviously it all depends upon from what point in time the measurements start.  Regardless, the graphic does exhibit the leverage of the equities being far more oscillative than the track of Gold itself … which for those of you scoring at home emphasizes the importance of timing one’s equity trades:

    Speaking of time, did you spend some pouring over the Federal Open Market Committee’s 06/07 May meeting minutes?  This again caught our eye:  “…economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace … inflation remained somewhat elevated…”  Why an eye-catcher?  Because by our math, the Economic Barometer since mid-February notably has been weakening, and inflation (as reported) cooling toward more Fed-friendly levels.

    Let’s first look to the latter per our inflation summary for April via the usual six measures.  To be sure, the 12-month summations of each element are basically atop the Fed’s +2.0% target (red backgrounds).  But take note of April alone as annualized:  yes, the Consumer Price Index came in a bit warm; however the more-leading Producer Price Index was DEflationary.  Further the “Fed-favoured” gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures — again annualizing only that for April — was well-below target.  The FOMC’s next Policy Statement is scheduled for 18 June.  “To cut?  Or not to cut?”  ‘Twill be the question:

    And second let’s go to the Econ Baro, for which — of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics — only four improved period-over-period.  The Gold Star goes to April’s marked increase in Personal Income, the +0.8% gain being the best since that of January 2024;  but the Pyrite Pooper is awarded to April’s Pending Home Sales, the -6.3% shrinkage the worst since the same month a year ago.  And thus here’s the Baro:

    Meanwhile, it being month-end, ’tis time to go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the past 21 trading days, replete with their respective grey trendlines and “Baby Blues” of each trend’s day-to-day consistency.   Gold’s trendline has nearly rotated from negative back to positive, but again, there’s that darn weekly parabolic Short trend with which to contend.  However, more daunting in the graphic are the blue dots for the S&P 500 (SPOO futures) which are dropping by the day even as the Index struggles to gain some traction.  Oh yes, the S&P’s trend remains up, but we regard last Thursday as a “failure day” for the futures:  after having being up intra-day a very robust +1.4%, they gave it all back and then some, settling in the red, with further fallout into Friday.  So for the S&P ’tis up with the trend but down with the Blues … someone’s got to lose:

    Now let’s assess the 10-Market Profiles of the precious metals.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), price is presently beneath the most heavily-traded apices in the respective panels.  And as labeled, Gold’s most dominant overhead resistor is 3321 (basis the current August “front month” contract) whilst for Silver ’tis 33.35:

    So with May in the books we next look at Gold’s Structure by the month across these past 16 years.  And therein note our friend vehemently making reference toward the rightmost candle for May:  ’tis a “doji”, which in Japanese candlestick charting means price’s period was both — indeed nearly equally — higher and lower, only to close basically back where it started.  By Gold’s August contract, May’s first trade was at 3329 and last trade just -16 points lower at 3313, even as the month’s high-to-low range spanned 326 points.  So what is the analytical interpretation of a “doji”?

    “That the trend is about to change, mmb.”

    So ’tis said, Squire.  Thus in this “doji” case, given that Gold more broadly has been going up — by process of elimination — a trend change would be to down.  ‘Tis quite a bit of near-term conflict for Gold:  price had been flying, yet more recently stalling rather than materially falling, but the weekly parabolic Short trend remains calling.  Again, mind Gold’s aforeshown 2973-2844 support structure.  As to “The Now”, here’s Gold’s magnificent picture:

    And just like that, five months of 2025 already are gone.  Or as a fine friend over in the States is wont to say, as we age:  “It goes quickly.”

    But back in the late 18th century, the sixth President of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (one Benjamin Franklin) lived to be 84 years of age, far more than double the male longevity expectancy of then just 36 years.  And “quickly” or otherwise, ol’ Ben is still going in continuing to grace the face of today’s $100 Federal Reserve Note.  ‘Course in 1928, he already was on the Treasury’s $100 Bill, which as a Gold Certificate was thereto redeemable.  In those days, Gold was fairly fixed-priced at $20.67/ounce, the $100 Bill thus convertible into 137 grams of Gold…

    …whereas today’s $100 fetches less than one gram, (0.85 grams or 0.03 ounces).

    Therefore:  a lot can happen in less than 100 years.  Shall your potentially centenarian children have enough to survive a century?  Reprise:  “Got Gold?“

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 810 – (24 May 2025) – “Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 810th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 24 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Bull Snorts and Boffs the Shorts“

    Assuming one is a Gold Bull, this past week was as good as it gets after having commenced a new parabolic Short trend:  instead of declining, Gold posted a weekly gain of +4.8% (+152 points) in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3358, an All-Time Weekly Closing High.  Sorry Shorts.  ‘Tis why we’ve quipped ad nauseam over these many years that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.

    “But mmb, last week you showed Gold targeting support down into the 2900s…”

    Squire, ‘twould be sheer folly not to at least be wary of Gold testing its 2973-2844 structural support zone as herein depicted a week ago.  Recall how relentlessly up was Gold back in the year 2011 as it cleared the price of 1900 for the first time?  “Nuthin but Gold!” was the clarion cry … price subsequently dropping -45.6% into the end of 2015.  (Indeed our writing back in 2010-2011 that “Gold has gotten ahead of itself” was ubiquitous understatement).

    The good news however is that today Gold is not ahead of itself.  Per the above opening Scoreboard, Gold now at 3358 is priced at a -14% discount to its Dollar debasement valuation of 3891.

    Regardless, weekly parabolic Short trends are “a regular course of doing business” with Gold.  To be sure, the Shorts were brazenly boffed this past week.  But ’tis far too early to rule out testing the aforementioned 2973-2844 support area as again shown via Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, despite the Shorts having initially been turned upside down even as a second red dot appears:

    Again, as stated, Gold just recorded an All-Time Weekly Closing High (3358), still shy of its All-Time Daily Closing High (3442) and All-Time Intraday High (3510).  As regards the +4.8% weekly price gain, it ranks 34th-best through the 1,274 trading weeks century-to-date.  More immediately though, the requisite price in the ensuing week to flip the Short trend back to Long is 3502 — which actually is “in range” — given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 155 points, (that being bidirectional, ‘natch).

    Fundamentally, two forces fused by the FinMedia figured for Gold’s favouring across this past week: 

    • Moody’s “late to the party” StateSide credit downgrade toward the end of the prior week; and
    • Trump’s “order then suggestion” for a 50% tariff on Euro goods come 01 June, in concert with a 25% “bite of the Apple”.

    In turn, so succumbed the Dollar, Bond and S&P 500, whilst the balance of our BEGOS Markets basically got the bid.  And therein, Gold has crossed back above its smooth valuation as we next see:

    ‘Course, from the critical “Cash Management Dept.”, with respect to price having crossed above its BEGOS valuation, we shan’t wantonly ignore Gold’s aforeshown weekly parabolic Short trend.  As cited a week ago, our sense of the Moody’s downgrade was already well  “…’priced in’ to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement…”.  And as to the Tariff Sheriff, the President still abides by “The Art of the Deal” –[Random House, ’87] in going for the whole enchilada such as to at least savour a few satisfactory bites.

    “So how does that affect Gold, mmb?”

    Squire, it doesn’t preclude Gold from going straight up; but likely it shan’t given the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend is only two weeks thus far in duration.  Indeed since the year 2001, Gold has recorded one weekly Short trend of only two weeks, and rightly so:  just prior to COVID, Gold embarked on a weekly Short trend, only to be dramatically catapulted upward upon the announcement of the closure of the world, price then leaping +8.6% for the following week.  In other words, in a week’s time from today, we’d expect such Gold trend still to be Short.  But how lovely ‘twould be if we are wrong.

    As to the Economic Barometer, ’tis on balance been going wrong since 19 February (67 trading days ago).  Of the 153 metrics having subsequently entered the Baro, only 60 of them (39%) have improved period-over-period:  “…we’re going the wrong way…” –[Steve Martin, ‘Planes, Trains and Automobiles’, Paramount, ’87].

    So come 18 June, does the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote to nudge its Bank’s Funds Rate down a notch?  Let’s first see what the Bureau of Economic Analysis records for April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures next Friday; such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge was flat for March.  Here’s the Baro:

    But then there’s the “Big Beautiful Bill” … “That’ll be a thrill.”  –[Thelma Ritter, ‘Boeing Boeing’, Paramount, ’65].  (Stayed tuned to your local affiliate for breaking news).

    Meanwhile, breaking back up since 15 May is our Gold, albeit within the broader context of the fresh weekly parabolic Short trend, (which again we ‘spect shan’t just yet meet its end).  Still, in turning to the dual-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, this past week’s group of “Baby Blues” rose as their foundational regression trend rotated toward positive; such becomes confirmed upon their eclipsing up through the 0% axis, (which you can follow daily at the website).  As for the Profile, the low 3300s appear initially supportive, followed by the dominant trading volume price of 3235:

    Next we’ve the like graphic for Silver, her “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (below left) having just pierced above their 0% axis, whilst her volume support in the Profile (below right) ranges from the mid-33s down into the mid-32s.  As to the Gold/Silver ratio now 99.8x, priced to the evolving average (from 2001-to-date) of 69.0x would see Silver +45% higher at 48.64 (vs. her present 33.64 level).  ‘Course by now, you’ve already really “Got Silver!” right?  (Upon the 4 August 1964 release of the depicted Kinks hit, the price of Sister Silver was $1.29/oz.  Thus today, she’s higher by +2,508% … just in case you’re scoring at home):

    So in a nugget:  Gold’s daily trend is up within a weekly trend that is down.  And during the ensuing holiday-shortened trading week come 11 metrics for the Econ Baro, included as noted “Fed-favoured” inflation data per the PCE.  Where shall Gold be, let alone the S&P?  To speak fundamentally, the former remains undervalued whilst the latter severely overvalued.  (So much for the ol’ “EMH” Efficient Market Hypothesis).  For today, less yield (S&P 1.321%) is better than more yield (T-Bill 4.230%).  “But Gold is yield-less!” they say.  And yet ‘from 2001, ’tis outperformed the S&P (including dividends) by nearly three times!  Gold wins.

    Speaking of sports, tomorrow (Sunday) is race day here.  Hat-tip Steinmetz Diamonds:  how about a Gold, diamond-encrusted F1 car?

    Whereas in racing ’tis best not to venture beyond the edge of adhesion, go for the Gold with all due reason!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 809 – (17 May 2025) – “As Expected, Gold Rejected”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 809th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 17 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “As Expected, Gold Rejected“

    Per our post on ‘X’ (@deMeadvillePro) this past Monday, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short, and was so confirmed by the week’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 3205, a full -305 points (-8.7%) below price’s All-Time High of 3510 set this past 22 April, a mere 18 trading days ago.

    ‘Course —  as you regular readers know — despite all the otherwise bullish Gold hysteria out there — we “alone” (‘twould seem) have been anticipating through these past two weeks such Long trend coming to its end given one of the world’s oldest sciences which we dutifully employ:  math, (a tool sadly lost on today’s financial “experts”).

    Thus, this begs we straightaway go to Gold’s Long trend end via the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the encircled red dot heralding the start of the new Short trend:

     

    This latest Long trend lasted 16 weeks, (which ties for 13th in duration since the year 2001).  But more importantly as to “How low is low?”, as above shown we’ve a structural support zone spanning from 2973 down to 2844, the midpoint of which (2908) is -297 points below today’s 3205 level, i.e. some -9% lower.

    Indeed, across Gold’s 52 previous parabolic Short trends century-to-date, the average price adversity is -7.8%:  thus a -9% decline from here wouldn’t be that untoward; (’tis not a prognostication, rather an “ought not be surprising” consideration).  To be sure, that’s all technically talking.  Whereas, in fundamentally forecasting, price broadly still has significant upside in its balance per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

    “And maybe it goes straight back up ’cause Moody’s just downgraded U.S. credit, mmb!”

    They’ve just figured that out now, Squire?  Fitch so did two years ago, (let alone Standard & Poor’s away back in 2011, following which the price of Gold fell for four years!)  ‘Tis on occasion quipped that “The Fed is behind the curve”; Moody’s apparently can’t even find the curve.

    Moreover:  you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right ’round the world knows that were U.S. debt graded as that for a publicly-held company, today’s “multiple As” might more realistically be a “single “B”, if not down in the “Cs”.  Ah, but StateSide “full faith and credit” mitigates any notion of (heaven forbid) “junk”.  At least so far.

    Regardless, debt is a key driver of currency debasement (i.e. more is printed — as more and more is needed — to service more debt).  Thus we believe current credit grades — and to an extent future downgrades  — are to an extent already “priced in” to Gold as valued by Dollar debasement, which again per the Scoreboard now broadly values the yellow metal at 3887, some +21% above the present 3205 level.

    As to our recent expecting of Gold’s rejecting, we’ve merely been watching the math via the website’s near-term BEGOS valuation for Gold.  Back on 21 April during this most recent upside deviation, Gold was priced some +440 points above such valuation.  Yet we herein remained ever-remindful that price inevitably reverts to its mean (in this case the BEGOS derived valuation, which itself rightly is rising).  And indeed such means reversion was completed per this past Wednesday’s settle as we next see:

    “But crossing under that line also is another down signal, right mmb?”

    Absolutely, Squire, that is the rule of thumb for each of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500)  But specific to our yellow metal as we always caution:  “Shorting Gold is a BAD idea!”  Further by the above graphic, the downside penetrations from a year ago-to-date have not garnered much follow-through. Or as a StateSide friend and trading colleague used to say:  “They went Short Gold, but they ain’t around anymore.”  Still with the weekly parabolic trend having now flipped to Short, lower prices at least for a bit make sense through here.

    Speaking too of lower, so is the recent track of the Economic Barometer.  The past week’s data barrage of 19 incoming metrics recorded just seven that improved period-over-period.  Notably therein, April’s wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index was clearly DEflationary per both its headline and core readings.  But hardly was that the case for retail inflation (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there directly affects you) as the pace of the Consumer Price Index quickened after having been flat for March.

    So exactly what is the data-compiling Department of Labor Statistics telling us?  That by the CPI the cost of April living rose, but that by the more leading PPI the States are experiencing cheaper living now in May?  Or are we simply stagflating away?  Is your employer thus poised to raise your pay?  But they’re not doing as much business, they say?  Either way, here’s the Baro from a year ago through today:

    And duly note therein the quip about the Baro once having led the S&P 500, as reliably it did for some 22 years from inception in 1998 to 2020.  But then:  add $7T “for the effects of COVID” to the StateSide money supply (“M2” basis), it all fungibly ending up in the S&P, which in turn has doubled without the requisite earnings support, and thus our “live” price/earnings ratio has skyrocketed from its developmental level back in 2013 of 25.4x to today’s quite real — but ridiculous — 46.3x.  ‘Twould seem nobody wants triple the annualized yield afforded by the U.S. Three-Month T-Bill (4.237%) because the S&P’s yield of 1.303% is deemed better (per this Investing Age of Stoopid).  ‘Course, stocks never go down, so it all makes sense.

    Fortunately, far more sensible is precious metals ownership.  Let’s assess this century-to-date:  the S&P 500 has gone from 1320 to now 5958 for a pre-dividend gain of +351%; add ’em in and the total return is in the +415% neighbourhood, so pretty good.  But then there’s terribly lagging Silver (vis-à-vis Gold) nonetheless +599% across the same stint.  So there ya go.  Oh yes, and Gold itself?  +1,071%.  (Editor’s Note:  Bitcoin began basically at $0, so such return-to-date is immeasurably infinite, just in case you’re scoring at home).

    Again however per our missive’s title, “As Expected, Gold Rejected”, we next view our two-panel graphic featuring Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right.  Our baby blue dots of trend consistency as ever provide shining guidance.  For as therein stated in black and blue:  “Follow the blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes” as further affirmed by Sister Silver.  ‘Tis why we turned off CNBS et alia a million years ago.  Here you go:

    Understand, naturally, that directionally brilliant as are the “Baby Blues”, per the deMeadville home page:  “…there is no ‘holy grail’ in this business…”, meaning that cash management is everything.  And helpful to that end are the website’s 10-day Market Profiles as next shown below for both Gold (at left) and Silver (at right).  The labeled apices are those prices featuring the dominant levels of volume; as such, they better determine the key areas of price’s support and resistance, as updated daily:

    To sum it all up as Gold works down, we wrap with the stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3887
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3510
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3442 (06 May 2025)
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3287
    Trading Resistance:  notable Profile apices 3239 / 3322 / 3345 / 3394
    Gold Currently:  3205, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  90 points)
    Trading Support:  by the Profile 3186
    10-Session directional range:  down to 3125 (from 3444) = -319 points or -9.3%
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2649 and rising
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    So yes as expected, Gold is getting rejected.      But be thee not dejected!  For far higher levels remain projected!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

     

    The Gold Update: No. 808 – (10 May 2025) – “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 808th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)“

    Our missive’s title is ever so suitable for parsing… So let’s go!

    Part Un:  “Gold Regains Ground” for indeed it did in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3329 for a net weekly rise of +82 points (+2.5%).  Heaven forbid price instead have suffered a third consecutive down week!  Why, that hasn’t happened since those ending the 1st, 8th and 15th of November last year!

    Part Deux:  “(albeit Stumbles Around…)” for after reaching as high as 3448 on Wednesday — up +201 points (+6.2%) into mid-week — selling then ensued such as to settle Gold at the noted 3329, which all-in-all is now -181 points (-5.2%) below the All-Time High of 3510 recorded back on 22 April.

    “And it made a record down move for an up week, right mmb?”

    Spot on, Squire.  Thus far in this 21st century-to-date there have been 1,271 trading weeks of which 708 (56%) have settled net up for Gold.  And the record to which Squire refers is based specifically on points lost from the intra-week high to the end-of-week settle:  Gold went down -119 points from Wednesday’s high in nonetheless finishing net up for the week.  More realistically on a percentage basis, the high-to-settle drop of -3.5% still ranks 12th-worst for an up week so far this century, and by those -119 points, the worst for an up week since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71.

    Thus in reprising our entitled query of a week ago:  “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?” we sense that the up week’s record setting high-to-settle points loss sensibly suggests that Gold has — for the present — run out of puff.  Further as we turn to Gold’s valuation per our proprietary BEGOS Markets measuring, price today remains +157 points “high” above the smooth line as shown here:

    Moreover, Gold also is at this century’s record for the number of consecutive trading days in having settled above said smooth valuation line:  86, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is better than four months).  The previous record of 75 trading days was set in both 2024 and 2019.  So to say this great Gold rally has become “a bit long in the tooth” arguably is reasonable, despite it being magnificent that Gold has been garnering long-overdue notice.

    Still, specific to this past intra-week’s points plunge, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date.  And as therein stated, the red portion of the rightmost bar is the largest points drop for any up week in Gold’s history; (yes the intra-week drop two weeks prior was worse, but ’twas a net down week).  As for the still ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend, ‘twould come to an end should 3243 be eclipsed (“just” -86 points from here) in the new week:

    Too, in looking at Gold’s settles by the day across some 15 years, price has gotten quite far afield from its traditionally “guardian” 300-day moving average, such deviation at present being +699 points above the next graphic’s blue line.  But by percentage distance, price is “only” +26.6% above that average; the record is +47.4% exactly 19 years ago on 11 May 2006, Gold then priced at 722, from which by mid-year it fell -24%.  Yes, Virginia, price retreats do happen, (oft when all around are bullish):

    As to the lowlight of last week, the Federal Reserve did its present posture preserve.  For in line with consensus, the Open Market Committee maintained its Bank’s Funds Rate in the 4.25%-to-4.50% target range.  But for those of you who diligently follow the deMeadville website and The Gold Update, you must have been rather startled by what the Fed said, as culled from the opening paragraph of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement that we’ve embedded below in the Econ Baro:

    “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace”?  Look above at the Baro’s blue line since February.  And as rightly forecast by the Fed’s own Sixth District Atlanta branch, we already knew back on 30 April the initial read of annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product was negative.

    “Inflation remains somewhat elevated“?  Recall from last week’s missive the summary table of March’s inflation paces?  Not only were they disinflationary, but some were DEflationary!  Perhaps the Fed sees March as a “one off”:  to be sure, 12-month inflation through March still averaged +2.6%, effectively in excess of the Fed’s desired +2.0% target.  Let’s see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has in the coming week for April’s Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday):  consensii expect a pickup in inflation’s pace.

    Meanwhile, losing upside pace is Gold.  Clearly this is evident in the left-hand panel below of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date.  Whilst the baby blues dots are still above their 0% axis — indicative that price’s trend remains up — their contrarily being in descent denotes the consistency of the uptrend as breaking down.  As for Gold’s 10-day Market Profile in the right-hand panel, the “line in the sand” price to hold is 3322:

    Silver’s picture is quite similar.  Her trend (on the left) is positive, but like that for Gold is losing consistency as her “Baby Blues” too have begun to fold.  And as to her 10-Day Market Profile (on the right), price at present (32.88) is not too far from her most volume-dominant supporter at 32.60.  ‘Course, relative to Gold, Sweet Sister Silver remains considerably cheap per the Gold/Silver ratio now 101.3x versus the century-to-date average of just 69.0x:

    In sum, its emotive hype aside, we still anticipate a bit lower Gold near-term; (indeed a most-valued colleague here suggested yesterday — over a delightful rosé — that 2400 is in the offing).  That’s a bit out of range (-24%) from our perspective; however, Gold obviously has corrected by at least such percentage, notably during 2006-to-2008, certainly so post-2011’s All-Time High through 2015, as well as during 2019-to-2020.  ‘Tis merely what the world’s major liquid financial markets on occasion do.

    Next week also brings the calendar conclusion to Q1 Earnings Season, which to this point for the S&P 500 constituents is “average” for year-over-year quarterly improvement.  ‘Course as you saw earlier in the Economic Barometer, the S&P 500’s price/earning ratio is an inane 43.0x.  Thus earnings are on balance improving, but their overall level remains far too low to continue supporting price; (how’s that 1.359% annualized dividend yield workin’ out for ya?)

    And specific to the Econ Baro, a huge load of 19 metrics are scheduled for the ensuing week.  Shall the Baro live up to the Fed’s “solid pace” perception of the economy?  As ever, we’ll mind the math…

    …whilst you, rather than stumble around,  mind — indeed mine — your Gold and Silver fine!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 807 – (03 May 2025) – “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 807th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?“

    Apropos of this missive’s title — and with the year’s first quadrimester (plus two May trading days) already in the books — let’s start with another of our infamous Gold Quizzes.  Ready?

    In settling yesterday, (Friday) at 3247, Gold completed its 18th trading week of the year with a net weekly loss — as just was the case in the 17th week!  Thus, prior to this:

    • When was the last time Gold recorded two consecutive down weeks?

    “Oh that one’s easy, mmb!  Not since last year!”

    My dear Squire, such quiz is directed toward our highly-valued audience, rather than be front-run in-house.  Still, in this instance,  “A Man for All Seasons” –[Columbia, ’66], is not Sir Thomas More, but indeed Sir Squire.  Let’s simply add some specificity to his statement:

    Through these 18 weeks of 2025, Gold has recorded but four that were net down.  However, three of those down weeks are amongst the past five, even within which price has made a weekly “higher-high” four times.  And to answer the quiz:  Gold’s last two consecutive down weeks were the last two weeks of 2024.

    To be sure, in 2025, Gold has had a great run … but is it finally done?  By our opening Gold Scoreboard, Gold today at 3247 is -16% below its Dollar debasement value of 3879.  Still, price — with only a third of this year having passed — has already traced 117% of its expected yearly trading range.  Yet hardly ought that be surprising given Gold’s great breakout.  But as you regular readers well know, the year’s high (thus far?) at 3510 elicited an ever-so extensive stretch above our BEGOS Markets’ valuation for Gold.  And it remains the case — even as price is reverting to said valuation — that Gold remains relatively +158 points “high” (at 3247) to such reversion destination (at 3029).  Yet clearly that valuation itself is rightly rising each day:

    Bespoke of the BEGOS Markets, Gold firmly finds itself at the top of the table as we turn to the Standings year-to-date.  And has been the case throughout, all three podium positions comprise our Metals Triumvirate.  But therein note Silver remaining woefully undervalued relative to Gold.  In 2025, Gold so far is +23.0% and Copper +16.8%:  so ought Silver at least be between those two (given the tug of war over her being both a precious metal as well as one that is industrial) rather than “only” +9.9%?  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is again 100.9x relative to its century-to-date evolving average of now 69.0x.  By our expertise to reprise, priced to said ratio today places Silver (instead of at her current 32.18 level) +46% higher at 47.09.  Might Silver thus be “the easiest Long trade” for the foreseeable future?  We eloquently answer:  “Well DUH!”

    Specific to Gold and its three down weeks in the last five, let’s go to the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date.  We’ve highlighted in red all four down weeks recorded so far in 2025.  Moreover, note the rightmost parabolic Long trend blue dot:  should Gold break below 3209 in the ensuing week, such trend shall flip to Short.  Obviously such flip price is well within range (just -38 points below here) given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is presently 83 points, let alone the “expected weekly trading range” now a whopping 140 points(!)  The Golden wave of euphoria has Long been waving; but from here it may be Short-lived, barring a basically “straight-up” week in the offing; else Gold’s great run — at least for the present — may well be done:

    Naturally it being month-end and two trading days into May, ’tis time to bring up the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with several tip-tier precious metal equities.  From least-to-most we below see Newmont (NEM) +27%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) +28%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Gold itself +39%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +42%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%.  (Were you in the S&P 500 from a year ago, your dividend-inclusive gain is +15% … even as you’re behind this year … oh dear):

    Further for the precious metals, here next are the 10-day Market Profliles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  With present prices for the yellow and white metals all but at the bottom of their respective Profiles, both have taken a bit of a beat-down.  Either way, as crooned the darling duo Sonny & Cher back in ’67, “The beat goes on…”:

    Although having turned lower near-term, the primary driving source for the on-balance rise in the precious metals — certainly century-to-date — and arguably (albeit erratically) so through the last three decades of the 20th century, is of course currency debasement, the eminent element therein being inflation.  Simply stated for those of you scoring at home, the more there is of something (Dollars), the less each is worth, and thus the more that must be tendered in monetary transactions; (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is why your Big Macs cost so much).  As through the month of March, we’ve now all the data for our inflation summary as follows:

    So you know where this is going given the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee issues their next Policy Statement come Wednesday (07 May).  By the above summary’s 12-Month Summation column, every metric is above the Fed’s desired inflation pace of +2.0%.  But annualizing March’s data alone — on average — is DEflationary!  How reasonable is that for rate relief?  After all, your cost of living went down in March, non?

     “My usual stuff actually cost more, mmb…”

    Oh say it ain’t so, Squire.  But to his point, we are more frequently seeing the “S” word stagflation in the FinMedia mix.  Thus is the economy retreating even as prices “in reality” are rising?  Hat-tip the Atlanta Fed which predicted negative Q1 Gross Domestic Product, the initial reading for which came in at an annualized -0.3% — yet the chain deflator was a very inflative +3.7%!  Stagflation indeed!

    As for the Economic Barometer, of the 18 incoming metrics this past week, barely four improved period-over-period, including March’s Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales and Factory Orders.  But at least the stock market went up, Bloomy referring to the rise as “Epic”; (obviously they need a semester in Market Mathematics).  Here’s the Baro:

    Regardless, ‘twould appear Wall Street sees inflation as having ceased, and per CNBC, “…stocks claw back tariff losses…” you see.  Thus:  let the Fed cut sans impunity, if you please!  What do the BEGOS Markets see?  Let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across their past 21 trading days (one month) with their respective grey trendlines and our famous “Baby Blues” of day-to-day regression trend consistency.  And as the Dollar returns to getting a bit of a bid, note the blue dots rolling over to the downside for the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold.  All together now: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:

    And of course since our prior “month-end” missive (29 March), Gold has proceeded to blow through our forecast high for this year of 3262 en route to having reached 3510!  Here by the monthly candles is Gold’s structural journey these past 16 years:

    In closing, let’s review specific to the S&P 500 that which we anticipated back in our 05 April missive:  a major negative crossover for the Index’s “moving average convergence divergence” (“MACD”).  And ’twas just confirmed as the S&P closed out April.  The last time the Index recorded such a high-level negative MACD crossover was at the conclusion of February in 2022, after which into October the S&P accumulated an all-in decline of -1,038 points (-23%).  Ready?

     “But mmb, in B-school they said stocks are a hedge against inflation, just like gold, eh?“

    True enough, Squire.  However, we were also taught (to yet again reprise Jerome B. Cohen):  “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…”  Today, ridiculously beyond rationality, the “live” (i.e. trailing 12-months) p/e for the S&P settled the week yesterday at 43.9x(!)  In other words:  with stock prices unsupported by earnings, GDP shrinking, the economy showing signs of stagflation, and a liquid money supply that can only cover 44% of the “money” currently invested in the S&P 500, ’tis not the time to say to stocks “Buy-Buy!”, but rather “Bye-Bye!”

    As for the slipping precious metals, think “Dip-Buy!”

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 806 – (26 April 2025) – “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 806th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock“

    Remember this ol’ tagline from the ’70s?  “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen!”

    Fast-forward to today and ’tis “When Goldman talks, people pile on!”  For the Morgans et alia, too, the same holds true.

    Far be it from The Big Houses to facilitate mathematical justification.  Rather:

    • Just announce “Here comes 4000 Gold, for recession shall unfold!”;
    • Then reprise Tag Team from ’93 with “Whoomp! (There It Is)”; 
    • And in mere hours Gold morphs into a straight up meme stock as if ’twere GameStop.

    In that same critical vein, this past week a fine friend and valued colleague shared these words from Mark Clubb, Executive Chairman at the wealth/asset management financial services firm TEAM PLC:  “…there is undoubtedly too much noise in financial advice today … dressed up as wisdom and too many professionals repeating slogans instead of offering substance…”  We agree.

    Regardless:  if “4000 Gold!” is the call, let’s just immediately put price there.  “We don’t need no stinkin’ analysis!”

    For more perspective we’ve this.  Across the 644 months which have passed since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71 — with still three trading days left in this April’s balance — Gold has already set the record for its largest intra-month low-to-high points-gain in history:  +540!

    Impressive as well on a percentage basis, the +18.2% intra-month gain ranks 15th-best since said nixing.  As for the 14 other even-better intra-month gains, Gold on average then fell by -11.7% within three months, suggesting that sub-3000 from here is very realistic moving forward.  ‘Tis just the way Gold has traded — at least historically — once the euphoria wears off.

    Still, here’s a real show-stopper:  from January’s low just three months ago (2625), Gold has come to within 115 points of having gained $1,000/oz!  Cue the late great “Bullet” Bill King:  “Holy Toledo!!”

    ‘Course, there’s still the party-pooper fly in the ointment — for just as do meme stocks — following Gold’s latest All-Time High of 3510 recorded this past Tuesday, price come Wednesday fell as much as -239 points (-6.8%) to 3271 toward settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3330.  No, Gold did not reach down to the 3237 Market Profile support level as prognosticated a week ago; but by our near-term technical BEGOS Markets Value measure, price remains +302 points too “high”:

    And as it has always done, we anticipate Gold (3330) sorting itself out with respect to the above chart’s BEGOS valuation (3028), such rising smooth line itself this past week having averaged a daily gain of +8 points.

    More importantly of course, by the opening Gold Scoreboard, the yellow metal’s supply-adjusted Dollar debasement value (3875) remains the broad-term goal.  And therein note:  the liquid StateSide money supply (“M2” basis) just set its own record high, now $22,149,197,787,444.50, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there reads as “Twenty-two trillion one hundred forty-nine billion one hundred ninety-seven million seven hundred eighty-seven thousand four hundred forty-four dollars and fifty cents”).

    Indeed, every Lincoln counts…

    …and unfortunately, hardly is there enough liquidity to cover the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $48.7T.  Thus:  at least halve the current “live” price/earnings ratio (42.3x) to avoid the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.

    “But then it already will have crashed, mmb…” 

    Squire’s brevity of brilliance oft qualifies as the last word.  Yet there’s hope:  for if the effect of “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) positively plays out such that the U.S. makes its own stuff and earnings double, then also avoided is the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash.  But we digress…

    To progress back to Gold, its continuous futures contract volume these past five days (1,765,217) was the most since the COVID-crippling week ending 14 August 2020, (soon after price had eclipsed 2000 for the first time).

    Now this year-to-date, 17 trading weeks already are in the books with just three of them having been down.  But:  in accordance with the aforeshown Market Value graphic of Gold being +302 points “high”, two of the past four weeks have been down.  So is it finally being perceived that — near-term — Gold perhaps has gone “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A. ’77]?  Here are the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the three downers during 2025 in red:

    Moreover, in walking to coffee this morning we encountered an esteemed gentleman who actively trades the precious metals futures, notably so Silver, which has been in part excluded from Gold’s rally.  We exclaimed:  “Wow, the Gold/Silver ratio this week reached 107x!” to which he replied “Yes, but it is Gold that has gone way too far too fast!”  So for those of you scoring at home, just a little perspective from the quiet shores of our wee Mediterranean fishing village.

    Still (as noted at the foot of the above graphic), the Gold/Silver ratio settled the week at 100.9x.  ‘Tis not nearly the highest reading century-to-date (having reached 124.2x on 18 March 2020 in the COVID chaos); all-in, the ratio’s average since 2001 is 68.9x.  Silver priced today to that average — rather than being the current 33.02 — would instead be +46% higher at 48.31, ever so near the white metal’s own All-Time High of 49.82 away back now 14 full years ago on 25 April 2011.

    Indeed as we go to Gold’s two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis queried “Can’t Silver keep up?”  Yet, note the baby blue dots of trend consistency are at least momentarily running out of puff without having reached up to the key +80% level:  that suggests lower prices are nigh.  And by the Profile we can see the magnitude of Gold’s rapid pullback from this latest 3510 All-Time High:

    With the like graphic for Silver, all she can say is “I’m so left out.”  Even though she’s actually been in a rally mode these last three weeks, on a month-to-date closing basis Silver is net down -5.0% from 34.77 to 33.02, whereas Gold is net up +5.5% from 3157 to 3330.  We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again:  “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!”  Of course, blame it on Cousin Copper whose having dragged Silver into mischievous deeds finds the red metal down -4.1% month-to-date.  That’s our Sweet Sister Silver as — given Gold and Copper — she’s “Torn Between Two Lovers” –[Mary MacGregor, ’76]:

    Toward wrapping it up for this week, the StateSide economy has gone to sleep, even as “TT” shall it eventually tweak, if as we’re so led to believe.

    Similar to what we’d seen the prior week, this past one brought but six metrics into the Economic Barometer:  period-over-period, three improved and three worsened.  Either way, as the high-level financial professionals below depicted in the Econ Baro tell us, the S&P 500 (which month-to-date is barely down -1.5%) loves “no news” and further, “S&P 6200 is a done deal”:  

    But then there’s next week:  18 metrics come due for the Baro, including that breath-holding, “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures for March.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics already found March to be deflationary!  Will the Bureau of Economic Analysis find same via the PCE?  Likewise, shall the first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product be negative?  So anticipates   Raphael “Reality” Bostic’s Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Either way:  prepare the popcorn!

    Still, at the end of the day, ’tis all ok.  Despite fears of recession, “TT”, and unsupportive earnings, we’re nonetheless told to expect “S&P 6200!”  For as decreed Yul Brynner in the role of Pharaoh Rameses I of Egypt –[The Ten Commandments, Paramount, ’56]:  “So let it be written; so let it be done!”

    ‘Course what really need be done is — meme as it may be — hold Gold whilst on a Silver shopping spree!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 805 – (19 April 2025) – “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 805th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…“

     
    …does it not stand to reason that “Everybody’s” selling Gold?  After all, for every ounce bought, it must be sold to the buyer, non?  ‘Tis merely the agreed-upon hitting of available bids and offers that makes the price change.

    But is such wise word to the Fin&Social/Media sufficient?  Likely, no.

    Regardless, let’s go to Gold’s Moneyflow.  Similar to the website’s MoneyFlow graphics for the S&P 500, below we’ve regressed Gold’s Moneyflow into points such that it can be directly compared with the actual change in price.  To wit,  this three panel display (one week, one month, one quarter) wherein the green line is the cumulative points difference between Gold’s price change and its MoneyFlow:

    “So what’s with that big dip there, mmb?  Because Gold is basically at a record high…”

    Simple, Squire. Recall after Gold’s having settled at 3190 on 02 April came three robust rounds of selling, price then closing at 2999 on 07 April.  The “big dip” — as you put it — merely indicates that the amount of money by points regression which flowed out of Gold hardly in full has flowed back in, even as price as risen to yet another All-Time High at 3372 this past Thursday, toward settling the abbreviated trading week at 3341.  In fact, across the past nine trading days (07 – 17 April), Gold’s day-over-day contract volume declined for six of them, (see too our closing graphic).

    “Well, none of THAT was on FinTV, mmb…”

    Nor would it be, Squire, given their WestPalmBeacher audience.  The point is:  MoneyFlow ultimately leads price.  And as you regular readers know, price at present remains technically well-extended above its BEGOS valuation line per this year-over-year graphic:

    To be sure, “mis-valuation” — whether technical or fundamental — seems oft “forever” sustained in markets (a prime example being the S&P’s ongoing post-COVID extreme over-valuation).  Obviously, one cannot “will” price to be elsewhere.  For ’tis axiomatic that price itself net of its bids and offers is never wrong; Gold therefore by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date is ever right:

    Gold’s All-Time Closing high was recorded this past Wednesday at 3358.  ‘Twas but half that at 1679 a mere 2.3 years ago as encircled in the following table of Gold’s closing price “doublings” since 1975, which was the first full year featuring Gold futures at the COMEX:

    ‘Course per the table’s footnote, Gold first achieved the 1679 closing level some 14 years ago on 08 August 2011.  That — for those of you scoring at home — means Gold was net “unch” after 11 years despite a harrowing route.

    Veteran readers may remember back in 2011 our penning about price “having gotten ahead of itself”,  after which Gold was severely sold — indeed way oversold — to as low as 1047 on 17 December 2015.  ‘Twas exemplary of Gold’s trials and tribulations as it fell far behind the Dollar debasement curve, which is de facto the most acute tool to value the yellow metal per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

    Fast-forward to today at 3341, Gold still is -13% below the Scoreboard’s value of 3833.  Assuming that flexing level is graphically eclipsed (and we’re still around), we’ll again write of Gold “having gotten ahead of itself”.  Certainly at present, the Gold hype is ripe with 4000 in sight … which likely means it shan’t get there anytime soon.  Again given Gold’s expected yearly trading range — and assuming the 2625 low (06 January) holds — 3400 may well be Gold’s top for this year should “TT” (“Trump Tariffs“) reach some accord and Europe not be sucked into war.

    One wonders as well if the StateSide Economic Barometer has topped for the year.  ‘Tis speculated that “TT” are grinding the economy to a halt:  “You mean we gotta make our own stuff??  I just wanna stay at home with my phone!!”  (You tell ’em, Stoopid).

    Further, there’s still evidence of inflation, disinflation, stagflation and now even deflation, the latter per Labor’s March data.  But wait, as we offer more confusion:  last week’s set of 13 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro found six having improved period-over-period, six having worsened, and one as “unch”.  Even those so-called six-figure “experts” are amiss:  their consensus for April’s Philly Fed Index was +10.0 … it came in at -26.4 … “Ooooh!”  Here’s the year-over-year view, wherein even “The Chair” perhaps is confused:

    Note as well in the Baro our “live” Price/Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still a hair-raising 39.2x (summation of: current prices ÷ trailing 12-month earnings x capitalization weighting, wherein non-earners are assigned their price as P/E).  The good news is that Q1 Earnings Season — whilst still early with just 41 S&P constituents having thus far reported — recorded 73% as having improved year-over-year results, which is an above average pace.  The bad news is — as you’ve herein read a bazillion times — the overall level of earnings remains far too low to support price, the P/E ratio invariably reverting to its mean, especially given the S&P’s 1.462% yield versus the 4.205% annualized yield on risk-free 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills.

    Far more broadly, if one can stomach the volatility, Gold also is risk-free.  Simply stated, the higher the amount of fiat dough, the higher Gold shall go.  Recall GEICO’s infamous quip:  “It’s so easy, a caveman can do it” … and according to archaeology evidence, they were Gold-aware away back in the BCs.

    What we next find is Gold’s notably having outperformed Silver of late via the two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for the yellow metal on the left and for the white metal on the right.  Last year from mid-May to mid-July, the Gold/Silver ratio basically resided in the 70s.  Today ’tis 102.7x, Sister Silver having yet again been led lower by cajoling Cousin Copper.  “For shame, young lady, for shame!”

    Still, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles, Silver (below right) has managed to work higher, positioned therein quite similarly to that of Gold (below left).  And our sense is that Gold’s dominant volume supporter at the denoted 3237 price surely shall be tested in the new week:

    To close it out, as earlier noted, Gold on Thursday reached an All-Time High of 3372, (indeed already +110 points above our year’s forecasted high of 3262).  Our being curious to see the FinMedia’s acknowledging of the fresh All-Time High, we went to three key website main pages:  Bloomy – no mention; Dow Jones Newswires: – no mention; CNBS – no mention.

    Thus:  do pardon our forgetting that — at the end of the day — Gold remains an inert relic.  Or as ’tis said, “Nothing to see here” in this year-to-date chart of Gold, given every ounce bought must also be sold, (the “receding” volume, behold, per our MoneyFlow all told):

    So, should Gold duly near-term flop, one ought fear not.  Rather:  be prepared to buy the drop!

    Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 804 – (12 April 2025) – “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 804th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262“

    Yesterday (Friday) at 13:33 GMT, June Gold traded at 3262.  ‘Tis our forecast high for this year as selected at New Year, and completes the triad of our three Golden Goals for 2025.

    As yesterday’s session further unfolded, Gold retrenched, but briefly then made it to a point higher still at 3263 — the new All-Time High — before settling the week at 3255.  And the five-day low-to-high run (2970-to-3263) of +9.9% was Gold’s best intra-week percentage gain since that ending 14 August 2020 when COVID covered the cosmos.

    Yet on to “The Now” as straightaway we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, which look nothing but great, price having made it to 3262 plus that extra point as icing on the cake:

    Given 2025’s eventual total of 252 trading days, Gold reached our forecasted 3262 in just 70 sessions, which for those of you scoring at home means 72% of the year is still in the balance.

    Thus the obvious question begged is:  “Where Do We Go from Here?” –[Chicago, ’70].

    Despite Gold having already achieved our upside goal, our call for getting there has been completely upside down.  En route to 3262, we’d anticipated Gold initially to pullback lower into the 2800s/2700s/2600s, even specifically to as low as 2507(!)  Instead through these first 15 weeks of 2025, just two have been down.  Such like stint hasn’t occurred since having penned the second edition of The Gold Update away back on 28 November 2009!

    But to Pete Cetera’s above crooning question, remember our writing at New Year that “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates … 2507.  Then would follow the ascent to [the] forecast high of 3262…”

    Our good man Squire then later questioned:  “But mmb, what if the 2625 low is already in for this year?” to which we responded “…were that to turn out to be the case, then our forecast for a 3262 year’s high may be deemed in hindsight as modest.”

    Similar was the case last year (for which we sought 2375, price then moving well beyond that to 2802).  And now year-to-date, the low of 2625 (06 January) remains in place.

    And thus as just penned this past 22 March:  “…’IF‘ the low for this year is already in place … Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the ‘expected yearly trading range’ equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy…”  Yep, no kiddin’, keep readin’.

    However, one only gets one shot at a forecast; re-forecasting is verboten!  But given price’s present momentum, 3400 from here (+4.5%) seems a mere stone’s throw, barring it suddenly going all wrong for Gold.

    That stated, the tug-of-war continues between Gold being technically near-term overbought vs. fundamentally broad-term undervalued.  The latter case is made evident by the opening Gold Scoreboard, price today (3255) being -15% below its Dollar debasement valuation of 3830.

    But by our BEGOS Markets’ value method, the following year-over-year graphic of Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (2962) shows price presently as +293 points — i.e. +10% — too “HIGH”:

    “So +293 points above value is pretty high, eh mmb?  Congrats on the call, by the way…”

    Thanks Squire.  And indeed the current +293-point deviation is the second-highest century-to-date.  ‘Twas only higher by +311 points upon the then All-Time Closing Gold High of 1900 back on 22 August 2011, from which in two months Gold fell -15% (snowballing to a -44% fall per the end of 2015).  But more “recently” by percentage deviation, the last time ’twas by this much (+10%) was on 08 March 2022, after which price fell from 2058 to 1695 (-4.5%) come that year’s Bastille Day (14 July).

    To be sure, if one labels “TT!” (“Trump Tariffs!”) as geopolitically Gold-boosting bedlam, price’s admirable rally is justifiable.  The Dollar Index just took quite a hit in sporting a weekly settle below 100 for the first time since that ending (believe it or not again) on Bastille Day 2023.  A Swiss Franc that day cost $1.1680 … today ’tis $1.2368.  Got Gold? Got Swiss??  Here’s the solid “Safe-Haven Two-Fer” that one cannot miss:  Miss Helvetia!

    Such mirthful jubilation aside, you strident Gold aficionados well-understand what follows geopolitically-induced price spikes:  reversion to the mean.  Yes, we fully comprend that “It’s different this time” … ’tis always different this time … until ’tisn’t.  We thus remain sensitively wary for Gold’s price to be suddenly jerked into reverse.  Indeed such down stints have been lurking of late:  on each of 03, 04 and 07 April, Gold recorded intra-day declines of more than -100 points; they’ve just been lost in the sensationalized shuffle.

    Shuffling down net-net since mid-February is the Economic Barometer.  Perhaps worse:  are we DEflating?  After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recording deflationary readings in three of its four key Price Indices for March:  the headline paces at both the Consumer and Producer levels were negative as was the latter’s core pace.  ‘Course the “Fed-favoured” paces of Personal Consumption Expenditures shan’t be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis until 30 April.  But should negativity also therein lie, the Federal Open Market Committee surely shall cut their Bank’s Funds Rate per the 07 May Policy Statement.  Too, of the Baro’s nine incoming metrics this past week, just two were “positive”:  March’s Treasury Budget was less negative, and Wholesale Inventories for February were worked down.  So in going to the year-over-year picture, just as the stock market can be a hedge against inflation, so too can it be a broken dam to deflation as such ebbing tide lowers all boats:

    Next we turn to trend consistency for the precious metals as measured by their baby blue dots.  Below for Gold on the left, despite price’s “mega-spike” of nearly +200 points for the past week, the “Baby Blues” have become a bit unglued; certainly so for Silver on the right, the aforeshown Gold/Silver ratio at present a whopping 101.1x:

    Thus as we view the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right), ’tis not surprising to find Gold’s closing white bar near the top of the chart, whilst that for Silver is mid-range.  ‘Course the culprit there is Cousin Copper, the red metal within the past three weeks posting a high-to-low blow of -25% from 5.374 (26 March) to 4.030 (07 April).  Oh those “TT!”

    Toward the wrap, here’s the stack:

    The Gold Stack

    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3830
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
    2025’s High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 3263 (from 2973) = +290 points or +9.8%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3255 (11 April 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  none by the Profile
    Gold Currently:  3255, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  75 points)
    Trading Support:  nearby 3247 and 3235, then 3160
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3116
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2970
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2549 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    So does Gold’s stellar run stop here, essentially at our 3262 forecast high for this year?  Until we actually experience the coming effect of “TT!”, its babble and prattle shall the markets still rattle.  But like everything else, be it geopolitically, monetarily, financially or whateverly, “TT!” eventually will fall from the FinMedia headlines and, in turn, Gold experience descent to some extent.  Either way, what a gut-grippin’ Gold ride we’ve spent!

    The Gold Update: No. 803 – (05 April 2025) – “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 803rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed“

    Long-time readers of The Gold Update know our favourite final future headline is:  “World Ends, Dow +2”, (“The Dow” of course being that Index at which our parents used to look) … except these last two days instead brought Dow -3,911 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

    “The Dow” thus having gone down, obviously, the world didn’t end, albeit as a seasoned investor here said earlier in the week:  “Nobody at Goldman has ever experienced a down market”.  Hence the hysteria over something way overdue, certainly so across these last few years.

    Indeed on the heels of last week’s missive “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”, an ever-so long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst was finally revealed in the form of a StateSide attempt for tax equality on imported goods.  (See our personal experience closing wrap on that).  More catalyst crash considerations later.  But first, let’s cut to the quick.

    Thursday and Friday saw Gold — itself overdue to come off — finally so do whilst stocks got boffed … and Sister Silver summarily slaughtered in loss … all below summarized in this BEGOS Markets’ two-day net change table nonetheless featuring Gold now as 2025’s boss:

    And still up +15.8% for the year, Gold this past Wednesday recorded another All-Time High at 3202:  that’s a mere 60 points away from our Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262.  But then the selling ensued, price settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3056.  Through the 14 trading weeks year-to-date, ’twas just the second that was down.  But yes, Virginia, Gold (below left) now at 3056 still shows technically near-term as +110 points “high” above its smooth valuation line of 2946, whereas the S&P 500 (below right) by the like metric for the futures is -787 points “low”:

    Again, we emphasize that is technically near-term:  Gold is too high and the S&P 500 too low; (and you can find such stances as updated daily on the website’s BEGOS Market Values page).  But fundamentally broad-term, ’tis comprehensively au contraire, mes chères soeurs et frères!  True valuation of Gold is mathematically solved per debasement of the U.S. Dollar, whereas for the S&P ’tis by a rational generation of earnings.

    Thus in the following table wherein Gold for the moment is +3.7% overvalued and the S&P -13.6% undervalued, of far greater importance is Gold being -20.2% undervalued (per our opening Scoreboard by Dollar Debasement) and the S&P +40.2% overvalued (per our “live” price/earnings ratio initiated a dozen years ago):

    “So what you’re saying, mmb, is this sudden S&P ‘crash’ is just peanuts in the bigger picture, eh?”

    Squire, throughout the 68-year existence of the S&P 500, the evolving average of its p/e always reverts to its mean.  We’ll spare you the math history, but per the above table wherein we’ve calculated price by p/e as +40.2% too high — assuming earnings growth remains rather muted — price “ought” correct from here by another -28.7%, ultimately placing the S&P in the 3600s.  Remember:  had COVID never happened, regressing the S&P’s growth track puts it today at best in the low 3000s.  But therein lies the good news:  the $7T post-COVID “accounting entry” (by which the S&P made it up into the 6000s) remains in the monetary system:  thus just as swiftly as dough has left the S&P, so too can it go back into the S&P, see?  For the investor, ’tis at present high stress.  For the trader, ’tis as present high times.  Either way, a ferocious “relief rally” for the S&P wouldn’t surprise us a wit.

    That said, this next graphic does not portend well for the S&P 500 as it shows a provisional negative MACD (moving average convergence divergence) crossover on the monthly candles.  ‘Course, it would confirm at month-end, (barring first a significant recovery).  Yikes…

     

    And as earlier noted with respect to a long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst, we’ve oft referred to the “Look Ma, No Earnings!” crash and/or the “Look Ma, No Money!” crash.  To be sure as we’ve underscored ad nauseam across many-a-missive, earnings have become meaningless, and the amount of money “invested” in the S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) is better than twice the size of the actual readily-available money supply to cover it all.  But in awaiting the now appointed “Tariffs!” catalyst, recall what we penned back on 22 February:  “Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame… think about it.”  Bingo.

    But these past five days were not an ongoing “Bingo!” by Gold’s weekly bars as next shown.  The rightmost bar high-to-low was by percentage (-5.3%) Gold’s worst intra-week loss since that ending last 22 November, whilst on a points basis (-187) the worst since that ending 14 August 2020.  ‘Course year-to-date, again, +15.8% is great.  But Silver’s -15.6% two-day slaughter pushed her ratio from Gold up to 103.5x, the highest reading since 14 May 2020.  Priced instead to the century-to-date evolving average of 68.9x Silver right now would be +50% above her present 29.53 level at 44.38!  “GOT SILVER?“  More on her in a bit.  Here’s Gold’s graphic:

    As to the Economic Barometer, the past week gave it a bit of a boost:  seven of the 12 incoming metrics improved period-over-period, the best standout being March’s ADP Employment data which also beat consensus as well as having February revised upward.  Negatively however, Unemployment picked up a pip whilst both the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services Indices declined.  ‘Course, the obvious lowlight in the graphic is the S&P 500 (red line).  Here’s the year-over-year view:

    On to the precious metals daily bars for the past three months-to-date and 10-day Market Profiles.  First we’ve those for Gold, her “Baby Blues” (at left) of trend consistency appearing to run out of puff; in the Profile (at right) we find it mostly populated by overhead resistors as labeled:

    Second, there’s the like drill for poor ol’ Sister Silver:  Slaughtered, creamed, annihilated, ’tis one of her worst graphics on record.  So much so, that we present last week’s five trading days using red bars on the left.  As for her Profile, ’tis nothing but resistance on the right.  And specific to these past two days, Silver abandoned her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket in inebriated sympathetic (indeed simply pathetic) decline (-15.6%) with Cousin Copper (-12.8%).  In fact, Silver percentage-wise lost in just two days what Gold has gained year-to-date (+15.8%)!  We can’t bear to look!

    We’ll wrap up here for this week with a little personal experience tariff talk.

    We (on the very rare occasion) make a purchase that is shipped from the United States.  Our most recent case was $99 worth of a specific popping corn we simply cannot find on this side of The Pond.  The shipping charge was $25, and thus the all-in cost paid to the exporter was $124.

    Then came the fun part in order to take receipt of the shipment.

    A customs tariff of €28 ($29) was levied along with the beloved value-added tax of €35 ($37) for an all-in cost of $190 for $99 worth of popping corn.  Ex-shipping, 40% of the cost went to tariff and tax.

    No wonder the “Leader of the Free world” is fired up.  Just don’t let ’em get your Gold!

    A team player, our Squire.  Cheers!

    …m…

    The Gold Update: No. 802 – (29 March 2025) – “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 802nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware“

    Well!  Can we all say “Gold 3100!”  After all, why stop at 3000?  For this past Thursday as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per Tag Team from ’93): “Whoomp! There It Is!” as 3100 June Gold traded, indeed yesterday (Friday) to as high as 3124!

    ‘Course, from the “Nitty-Picky Dept.”, spot Gold didn’t quite get there, reaching up to only 3085, with the April contract going off the board at 3090.  Yet given our year’s Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262, (let alone the above Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement Gold valuation of 3825), ’tis merely a  matter of time for spot 3100… and beyond!

    Regardless (and you knew this was coming):  all the new-found Gold euphoria aside, yes, we remain expectant for some material degree of price decline.  ‘Tis technically so by our BEGOS valuation of Gold depicting it as +173 points “high” (price then always reverting to valuation).  ‘Tis fundamentally so by inflation’s inability to efface toward a “Fed-favoured” pace.  Let’s have a look.

    Technically we’ve our year ago-to-date chart of price’s daily closes vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line which assesses Gold’s movement relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500.  As shown, Gold is presently priced at 3090, but the valuation line is 2917:  thus we’ve the +173-point difference which will get closed, aided as well by the smooth line itself being on the rise:

     

    Fundamentally for inflation through February, ’tis said you can “pick your poison” per our puke-green table below, wherein:

    • Should you side with The Bureau of Labor Statistics (which calculates both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index), the pace of inflation slowed for the month, the core PPI itself being deflationary;

    • If instead to go with the Fed, The Bureau of Economic Analysis‘ Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in well-ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred annualized rate of +2.0%.  

    But:  to average the six annualized measures for February, ’tis magically spot-on at +2.0%  So if you’re an Open Market Committee member, query:  Who to believe?  What to do?  Lower, maintain, or raise?  (To be sure, ’tis FinMedia-verboten to even mention the phrase “Fed rate raise”).  Yet what? No cut? Cue King Crimson crooner Greg Lake from ’69: “Confusion will be my epitaph…”  as here’s the table:

    Either way, Gold is the momentum play … or is it?  There being but one trading day remaining in March, indeed in Q1, let’s see where the real year-to-date momentum is as the Metals Triumvirate still tops our BEGOS Markets Standings, the podium placers being the red metal (+27%), the white metal (+19%) and the yellow metal (+17%)  “Got inflation?”  Gold aware, stocks beware:  look at last place.  Here’s the whole bunch:

    “But with Copper making all-time highs, isn’t that great for the economy, mmb?”

    Traditionally, Squire, Copper is said to lead the economy.  ‘Course with “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) dominating the newsflow, Copper naturally gets a surge, initially as a negative given it can increase inflation’s pace, but perhaps more broadly as a positive should manufacturing materially return StateSide and elicit higher real Gross Domestic Product.  But definitely mind Copper as it does tend to lead the price of Gold, the red metal having fallen these last two days in-a-row.

    As for the noted cellar-dweller in the above Standings, we’ve the S&P 500 -5% year-to-date.  You may well have read that oft-dubitable Goldman Sachs just reduced their year-end S&P target to 6200.  “Ahh, youth!”  Our sense is to replace their “6” with a “4”.  Still to their credit, that post-COVID $7T continues to slosh about … but are equities finally losing their “only game in town” status?  For those of you scoring at home:  annualized, the riskfull S&P yield is now 1.368%; the riskless three-month U.S. T-Bill’s is now 4.188%.  Even those WestPalmBeachers down there can discern which is better; (well, maybe not…)

    “But, mmb, the Bipartisan Policy Center just said the ‘X-Date’ for Treasury default is July-October…”

    Squire loves welcoming Wall Street to real life.  And welcome to Treasury, Scott “This we got” Bessent.

    Really real life is enjoying Gold about to complete its tenth winning month of the past 13.  On a mutually-exclusive basis, 10 wins out of 13 has occurred but three other times so far this century.  And by the week from a year ago-to-date, below is our graphic of the enduring Gold streak.  Therein, just 18 weeks have been down whilst basically double that — 35 — have been up.  Here’s the Long and Short of it:

    And in keeping with our month-end mode, let’s next look at leverage via the year-over-year graphic for the Golden percentage tracks of Gold & Bros.  From low-to-high, there’s Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, both Gold itself and Newmont (NEM) +41%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +52%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +86%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)+92%.  Too, a magnificent charter reader has asked we give special mention to Alamos Gold (AGI) aka “The Agnico of the Mid-Tiers” which +84% year-over-year would be tucked in just below AEM and PAAS.  “Remember the Alamos!”

    Near-term for  the precious metals, these are their 10-day Market Profiles featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notable volume apices of the past fortnight are as labeled, the yellow metal (quoted by the June contract) showing support initially at 3114, then more so in the 3068-3055 zone, whilst the white metal’s key supporters are 34.75 and 34.25:

    Broad-term for Gold we’ve the 16-year monthly candles across price’s structure.  Remember the old trading axiom that “Triple tops are meant to be broken”?  Oh my goodness…

    Thus it again being month-end, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets for the past 21 trading days (one month) along with their grey trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend.  And yields having been a bit on the rise find the Bond’s price in recent demise, albeit gaining a safe-haven Friday bid as the S&P 500 fell from the skies.  Note, too, per the website’s Prescient Commentary a couple of weeks back when Oil was in the 65s that the “Baby Blues” were then heralding a run to the low 70s … et voilà:

    So as tomorrow we slide EuroSide to summer hours, let’s close it out for this week with (yet another) shocking stat for the S&P 500.  ‘Course, you regular readers know the two “ongoing-in-perpetuity” shocks of 1) the “live” price/earnings for the S&P now at 40.2x — yes, that’s after Friday’s -2.0% fall — and 2) the current market cap of the S&P now $49.1T versus a “readily available” M2 money supply of less than half that at $21.8T.  (Is your brokerage preparing its IOUs?)

    Here’s our next shock.  Per the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings, again the worst year-to-date loser is the S&P -5.1%.  If we regress by the day from New Year the track of the S&P’s closing price (which currently is 5581), and extrapolate such trend to year-end, the Index then first settles in the 4000s come 12 August, on track to finish the year -25% at 4386.  This varies a bit from Goldman’s 6200, but we tend to notice little things like that.

    Because we don’t forget big things like this:

    The Gold Update: No. 801 – (22 March 2025) – “Gold’s Year of the Bid”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 801st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Year of the Bid“

    Thus far in 2025, ’tis been the year of the Gold bid.  Folks who are clueless on Gold are abashedly asking about it.  “How much is it?”  “How do I buy it?”  “How much is in Fort Knox?” “How do I store it?” “How much is it taxed?” “How do I get it outta the UK?”

    Indeed, we too query:  has our having penned 800 Gold Updates finally made the world Gold crazy?  That century-to-date — although the S&P 500 is + 329% (from 1320 to 5668) — that Gold’s growth is triple that at +1,005% (from 274 to 3028)?   ‘Tis clear that this year the Golden lightbulb has suddenly gone aglow and everybody’s excited to give Gold a bid, even wee London:

    Naturally, we’re also excited.  Based on the linear regression pace at which Gold is rising so far in 2025, ‘twould reach our year’s forecast high — Golden Goal Three of 3262 — on 07 May:  that’s a mere 32 trading days from now, with then nearly eight months left in the year’s balance!

    “I dunno mmb, but if it happens that fast, then what?”

    Two generalizations there, Squire. “IF” the low for this year is already in place (2625 on 06 January), Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the “expected yearly trading range” equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy.  Contrarily, stagflation sets in and the Fed is stuck, perhaps even having to raise its FundsRate to slow rising costs, the Dollar then getting the bid away from Gold, which in turn travels toward such downside range in revisiting the 2700s, 2600s, 2500s.  In the meantime, next Friday (28 March) bring February’s “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

    For as can be the case with markets — excitement breeds near-term excessiveness.  Through this year’s 55 trading days-to-date, Gold (as is its current case) has been “textbook overbought” for 45 of them.  We refer to it as “textbook” as ’tis visible to the trading public at large should they care to access such available mix of standardly-used technical studies, our preferred cocktail consisting of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics.

    Better still (albeit far less publicly-viewed) is the website’s BEGOS Markets Value for Gold, which just completed a 52nd consecutive trading day above its smooth valuation line, price next shown as +139 points “high”:

    Hardly is 52 days above that line a record (the most in the past 25 years being 75 days); however upon reaching 52 days, price then on average within the ensuing 63 trading days (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is one trading quarter) has fallen -7%.  Thus per Gold having settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 3028 — posting  en route a fresh All-Time High at 3065 — a slide within such -7% vacuum would be some -200 points from here, i.e. relatively in line with our having suggested that the road to Golden Goal Three of 3262 may well first travel through the 2700s-2600s, even to as low as 2507 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  For unlike the Nvidias or Palantirs or Gamestops or even Bitcoins of the world, Gold is not (barring a U.S. Treasury default) going to go straight up:  ’tis too globally liquid for the offers to just “vanish”.

    The point is: be thee not discouraged should price pullback a few hundred points, for the ultimate Gold target as ever remains the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value which at present is 3803.  Hence as depicted in the above graphic:  “Near-term, Gold is too high … ‘Course broadly, Gold is too low!”

    Either way, Gold’s year-over-year trend remains nothing short (pun!) of amazing!  To wit, Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date astride the ever-rising parabolic Long trend per the rightmost blue dots:

    And therein note the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the current 90.3x level being the second-highest weekly close so far this year.  Priced to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 68.8x, Silver — rather than being 33.53 today — would instead be +31% higher at 44.00  “Got Silver?” … (a rhetorical question for our resourceful readers).

    From having recently been less resourceful to flatlining this past week is the Economic Barometer.  Oh, there were incoming metrics aplenty:  16 of ’em … of which seven bettered their like reading of the prior period and nine were worse.  The week’s best winner was February’s Existing Home Sales which bettered both consensus and January’s number, such prior month also revised higher.  But the stinkers were March’s National Association of Home Builders Index taking quite a tumble (from 42 to 39), as did the month’s New York State Empire Index (from +5.7 to -20.0).

    ‘Course, the week’s non-event highlight was the Federal Open Markets Committee’s “sitting on its hands” Policy Statement.  But in conspicuous contrast to the sudden stumble by the Econ Baro, did you read the FOMC’s opening sentence of its Statement?  ‘Tis below embedded:

    Not to be overly critical of The Fed, but might its referred “recent indicators” be from last September during which time the Baro — as you can well see — was firmly rising?  After all, you know the long-running saying that “The Fed is behind the curve.”  Perhaps esteemed voting member (and ChiFedPrez) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee could shed some light on such recent “solid pace”.  Anyway, we’ll instead stick with the actual math.

    Turning to the math that makes our “Baby Blues”, they are ever-smoothly in synch with Gold’s moves, either up or down.  Such measure of regression trend consistency as below shown on the left is fairly well-paired with price across the past three months, albeit Gold has dropped for two successive days even as the dominant trend is up.  And on the right in Gold’s 10-day market Profile we see 3043 as the highest-volume handle traded these past two weeks, its role at present that of overhead resistance with notable near-term volume support at 2996:

    As for poor ol’ Sister Silver, she has declined for three straight sessions, her like graphic from three months ago-to-date below left and Market Profile below right.  Therein, her dominant volume resistor is 34.35:

    Gold’s Year of the Bid indeed!  We’re a bit surprised to see the yellow metal moving so swiftly toward Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Through the year’s first 12 weeks, only one has been down:  such stints of 11 up weeks in 12 have only occurred (as a mutually-exclusive basis) on five other occasions so far this century.  The average price fallout following those five instances within the ensuing three months?  -9%, which again “suggests” similar downside to the aforeshown currently streaking Market Value’s “price over valuation differential” that has historically then led to an average -7% drop.  But as we on occasion caution:  “Average is not Reality” especially given Gold’s strong bid this year.  Still as stated, we shan’t be surprised to see Gold revisit the 2700s, etc.

    And in Gold’s year of the bid if such pullback must be, better it indeed be prior to our 3262 Golden Goal Three!

    The Gold Update: No. 800 – (15 March 2025) – “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 800th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!“

    Long-time (really long-time) readers of The Gold Update know that our microphones are just about everywhere as was the case in Rome’s Curia Pompeia (a little Latin lingo there) on this day in 44 B.C.  Let’s roll the tape:

    • Soothsayer:  “Hail Caesar!”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Whaddya got, Soothie…”

    • Soothsayer:  “We who embrace Caesar, whose name is magnificent, whose presence is ever-accessible, who makes our world wonderful, we turn our hearts to thee, oh Caesar…”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Oh just get on with it, Soothie…”

    • Soothsayer:  “Oh great Caesar!  Beware the Ides of March!  For on this very day 2,068 years hence shall come the 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update!”

    • Julius Caesar:  “Soothie…  Get out!”

    Following which of course out came the long knives and the rest — as ’tis said — is “histoire”.

    Welcome to the 800th Gold Update, our having missed nary a Saturday throughout.  ‘Tis again a “milestone” for us, and we shan’t forget those who’ve substantively got us here, most notably the Mighty Moriarty of 321Gold, along with Goldseiten, Gold-Eagle, Kitco, Investing.com, TalkMarkets, GoldSeek and YOU: the most savvy Gold readers ’round the world.  Our truly heartfelt thanks to everyone.

    Moreover, welcome to Golden Goal Two, such “milestone” level of 3000 by the April futures contract having been reached this past Thursday evening @ 20:49 GMT with spot Gold then following yesterday (Friday) morning @ 10:10 GMT.  A doubly-beautiful thAng!

    Further, a hardened aspect of The Gold Update these many years is that when we’re way wrong, we so say!  In this case, we’ve of late been anticipating Gold reaching lower price levels, certainly so from the week ending 28 February wherein Gold high-to-low fell -130 points from 2974 to 2844.  Instead, 3000 was just tapped.

    Indeed, whilst our Golden Goal Three for the year is still a projected a high of 3262, we’ve this reminder (from 04 January) as to Gold’s potential downside :  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates…2507…”  And should that eventuate, our sense remains it comes prior to 3262 “Goo goo g’ joob” –[Lennon, ’67].

    But should we remain wrong (i.e. Gold not materially decline en route), ‘twould be great, for 3262 shall then appear in hindsight as having been a modest mandate.

    Either way, Gold settled yesterday at 2994 in reaching a new All-Time High of 3017, the Monday-Friday net gain both by points (+76) and percentage (+2.6%) being the best of the year’s 11 weeks-to-date, within which (as aforenoted) only one has been down.

    “Which begs the question mmb, is that an 11-week record?  Congrats on 800 by the way…”

    Thanks dear Squire:  we couldn’t have made it this far without you.  As for similar 11-week periods with but one (or even none) as down, on a mutually-exclusive basis ’tis happened century-to-date on seven other occasions, the prior case being within the grips of COVID from the weeks ending 29 May 2020 through 07 August 2020.  Gold for that 11-week stint posted a net gain of +18.0%.  This time ’round ’tis +13.5%.  Regardless, as to “The Now”, all looks great in GoldLand:

    And by the above weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now eight weeks in duration, the “flip-to-Short” level of 2760 affording Gold 234 points of wiggle room, (albeit the blue dots are now swiftly speeding upward at a rate of +42 points per week).  Still, by the above graphic, again we say, “Gold is looking as good as it gets!”

    However:  in measuring Gold by its smooth valuation line, price’s movement relative to those of the other four primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Oil / S&P 500) presently appears some +122 points “high” above that smooth grey line…

    …to which price always returns, acknowledging ‘natch that the smooth line itself is in ascent.  So again, some price descent many be in near-term order.  But of broader import — per the opening Gold Scoreboard — price today at 2994 is -807 points beneath the Dollar debasement appraisal of 3801.  Or apropos of this 800th missive, let’s reprise the deserved decree from late great Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold!”  Price upon his 20 November 2015 passing was 1077:  wherever in the Gold ether he now is,  the +180% 10-year gain must be most satisfying.

    But suddenly not so satisfying is the state of the StateSide economy, which by the Economic Barometer across the past two weeks has suffered a bit of a “whoopsie…” (technical term).  The marked month-over-month braking in the pace of inflation suggests a slowing of activity, although February’s “Fed-favoured” read via Personal Consumption Expenditures is still two weeks away.  But initially for the month at both the headline and core readings, the Consumer Price Index substantially slowed, whilst the Producer Price Index actually hinted at deflation, the headline number’s pace at zero and that for the core coming in negative.  Does that mean the regular stuff yer now buyin’ this month is cheaper?  Well, maybe not, as the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for March just suffered its third-worst month-over-month drop since COVID.  “Whoopsie!” indeed.  Here’s the Econ Baro:

    Specific to the precious metals, ’tis been anything but “Whoopsie!” in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with those for Silver on the right.  For both markets, their respective “Baby Blues” of day-to-day trend consistency just recently breached below the 0% axes, only to then reverse back upward as the 21-day downtrends came to an end:

    In next turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), the standout feature is the yellow metal depicting “A dearth of volume support” which is created when price rapidly covers a large range of points.  ‘Tis merely something of which to be aware should price suddenly skid back down to the 2924 volume-dominant support level.  As for the white metal, she sports a bit of a volume gap from her present 34.35 price down to 33.70, but with firmer support in the 33.20-32.90 zone as labeled:

    Thus there we are for No. 800.  It being a “milestone” for us in tandem with Golden Goal Two of price having achieved the 3000 “milestone”, let’s go to the stack.  Therein note:  nothing is listed in the 2800s.  So swift has been Gold’s recent rise, that after having settled a total of 59 days in the 2600s and then 30 days in the 2700s, there’ve been but 11 settles in the 2800s, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  Indeed, a word to the wise is sufficient.  (What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is don’t be surprised should selling ensue).  Here’s the stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3801
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
    2025’s High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 3017 (from 2870) = +147 points or +5.1%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3001 (13 March 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  2996
    Gold Currently:  2994, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2930
    Trading Support:  per the Profile, nothing substantive until 2924
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2760
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2479 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    To close it out, we again (as is on occasion a Gold Update tradition) grin over further “FinMedia Freakout!”.  Our FinMedia friends pride themselves on their technical stock market expertise of which they know not just one, but two measures.  They are called “The 200-day Moving Average” and “The 10% Correction”.

    In this case, ’tis the latter which came to the fore across this past Thursday’s FinMedia spectrum as a result of the S&P 500 having reached down -10% from its recent all-time high of 6148, (the Index today at 5639).  Rife was the air with panicky hysteria!  From one FinMedia page to the next, the leading heading was nearly identical:  “S&P 500 Enters Correction”.  (Note:  here at deMeadville, the correction commenced three weeks ago upon the S&P futures crossing below their own smooth valuation line as featured daily at the website, hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge).

    The good news is, by the time the FinMedia typically figures this out, ’tis oft a fabulous buy signal.  Indeed prior to yesterday’s +117-point S&P rally, we internally texted it ought be bought.  Boom!  Following which came this hilarious rationale courtesy of CNBC:  “Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.”  (We’re curious as to how may hours may be the “time being”).  The Ides of March, indeed.  On verra…

    That stated, we still view the S&P as treacherously overvalued en route to a down year.  But counter to that remains the question:  “Where then is COVID’s $7T ‘relief fund’ that all ended up in the stock market gonna go?”

    “Which again begs the obvious question, right mmb?”

    Better yet, Squire, as a statement:  How about into Gold!

    The Gold Update: No. 799 – (08 March 2025) – “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 799th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide“

    Whilst we’ve still our near-term negative bent for the price of Gold, nonetheless let’s reprise this from last week’s missive:  “…one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came…”

    And from the prior Friday’s White House brawl to yesterday morning’s RUS/UKR missile-drone attack, such geo-political jitters — in tandem with tariff tantrums — have kept Gold aloft, price settling the week at 2918 for a net five-day gain of +1.8% (+50 points).

    Yet, ’twas a so-called “inside week” for the yellow metal, meaning Gold printed both a higher-low but lower-high than in the week prior.  ‘Tis depicted below in the left hand panel wherein the outermost green and red horizontal lines are the prior week’s range and the innermost two this past week’s range, the diagonal slants showing the difference.  Still, in spite of it all, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continued to fall, paired here with the S&P’s folderol and Silver’s attempting a grip on the ball:

    “But mmb, that’s more than just S&P folderol ’cause it’s down -6% from its high!”

    We’ve on occasion been queried if Squire is paid for such “teeing-up” comments.  (Rather, for the privilege of his presence on this page, he pays us).

    But to the point, yes, the S&P 500 (now 5770) has lost -6% of its value from the all-time high (6147) of just 13 trading days ago (19 February).  Yet from our purview ’tis “nuthin’ but noise” given the mighty Index today is +765% above its FinCrisis low of 667 (06 March 2009) as well as +163% over the COVID low of 2192 (23 March 2020).  Thus for you WestPalmBeachers down there, the S&P’s -6% pullback is a statistical irrelevancy.  And as our regular readers know all too well, relevancy shall have returned upon the S&P’s price/earnings ratio (the “live” reading now 41.0x) having reverted to its reasonable mean in the low 20s, (which always has occurred — either up or down — since the S&P 500’s inception 68 years ago in March 1957) And in turn, the otherwise ongoing Investing Age of Stoopid shall have been eradicated.  (Nevertheless, we’ve more on the FinMedia “Panic!” toward today’s wrap).

    As to Gold’s ten trading weeks year-to-date, this past one (the rightmost green bar) is the first to be characterized as “inside”.  Again, the inference as Gold continues to work off its extreme overbought condition is price having benefitted from geo-political and tariff trepidation; hence this past week’s buoyancy:

    To be sure, Gold’s blue-dotted weekly parabolic remains safely Long.  However, by our BEGOS Markets Values measure (in placing a near-term value on Gold per its movements relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS components, i.e. the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500), price is still some +70 points “high” above its smooth grey valuation line; and of course, the two inevitibly shall eventually meet.  Here they are from three months ago-to-date:

    And again as you well know, we fully expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to trade this year, and further our forecast high for Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Yet as the “Not in a Straight Line Dept.” reminds us, we see the route thereto traveling through the 2703-2641 zone, just in case you’re scoring at home.

    ‘Course, how lovely ‘twould be to be wrong and instead see Gold proceed from here at 2918 right up the road to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3798.  Highly unlikely anytime soon, although in responding at a gathering this past week to the query “Is Gold now going to 10,000?” we said “No, and likely somewhat lower near-term, yet 4,000 perhaps is possible in two years or so…”

    But obviously the bogeyman in the room is inflation — which most broadly is a Gold positive — but intermediately a threat to price should the Federal Open Market Committee resort to raising rates.  The good news there, however, is both retail and wholesale inflation by consensii are expected to have somewhat slowed their February paces from those for January.  Next Wednesday (the Consumer Price Index) and Thursday (the Producer Price Index) shall tell the tale.

    Indeed let’s segue to the Economic Barometer which took a bit of a boffing during the week.  Of the 15 incoming metrics, only five improved period-over-period.  Most impressive were January’s Factory Orders which increased from December, that month’s decrease being favourably revised, and which beat consensus.  But the stinker was the backup in January’s Wholesale Inventories, which accumulated over those for December, that month’s depletion revised to a slower pace, and were a bit more bloated than consensus.  Too came the not so rare dichotomy of February’s Payrolls taking a rather severe hit per ADP, but by the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually increased.  “What’s your source?”  Here’s the Baro:

     

    Meanwhile, let’s assess the state of the 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notably for the yellow metal, price spent much of yesterday’s week-ending session clustered ’round the now volume-dominant 2927 level.  As for the white metal, she settled the week smack on her volume-heavy 32.90 support/resistance bar:

    More broadly with respect to Gold’s 300-day moving average across the last 14 years, price generally pulls back when ’tis +20% or higher above that measure (the blue line in the graphic).  Just prior to the start of the current near-term price correction (which began from the All-Time High of 2974 on 24 February), Gold had settled as high as +22.2% above said average; at present ’tis still a lofty +18.4% above same.  So again, we ought not be surprised should Gold further subside:

    Toward closing, in light of the S&P 500 (which year-to-date is now down -1.9%, “OMG!”) having just recorded its weakest week (-3.1%) of the ten thus far this year, as we earlier teased, let’s check in with a few of Friday’s “FinMedia Freakout” finales:

    Bloomy:  “Wall Street’s Big Selloff Puts Pressure on America’s Rich Households”  Lovin’ this one, for how many times have we written:  “Marked-to-market everyone’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality nobody’s worth squat”;

    DJNw:  “Most Americans can’t afford life anymore…”  So is DJNw’s assumption here the alternative?  That’s a bummer.

    CNBS:  “The oversold stocks due for a technical bounce after a brutal week.”  Truly ’tis dumbing down of the word “brutal”; we’ve haven’t had “brutal” since March 2020; and from 2008 into 2009, we regularly ate “brutal” for breakfast.  So what leads to “brutal”?  The aforenoted “live” S&P P/E of 41.0x.

    “So then is the S&P about to crash, mmb?”

    Obviously no one knows, Squire.  What will eventuate over time is the reversion of the S&P’s P/E to a level of normalcy, as earlier cited in the low 20s via:  1) a doubling in earnings without the stock market rising, or 2) a 40%-50% stock market “correction”, or 3) a“Combination of the Two” –[Big Brother and the Holding Company, ’68]

    Either way, we wrap with a wry note:  per this penning, there remain two full weeks of winter.  Yet for some reason of absurdity, StateSide folks early tomorrow move their clocks to summer hours.  What that means for The Gold Update is — by adhering to its time-honoured traditional uploading each Saturday at 11:00 PacCoastTime — ’twill be an hour earlier here EuroSide at 19:00 for our next three editions (15, 22 and 29 March) until we then nudge our clocks forward come 30 March.

    And specific to next week’s piece, beware the Ides of March, for it brings our 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update…

    The Gold Update: No. 798 – (01 March 2025) – “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 798th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls“

    Not that we’ve been rooting for Gold to fall, but it being one of the world’s most substantive liquid markets, it implicitly both rises and falls in its interactive role — that reflecting the cost of currency debasement — as one of the five most important financial stores of value along with the Bond (the cost of money), the Euro (or major currency of your choice as the cost of foreign flows), Oil (the cost of the global economic engine) and the S&P 500 (or major market index of your choice as the cost of equity risk).  We of course refer to this high-level grouping as BEGOS:  (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).

    And from one trading day to the next, each of these five markets at the macro level basically receive and distribute money from one another.  In turn, their combined changes in price elicit a valuation for each component as updated daily on the website’s Market Values page.  And if you’ve been paying attention, Gold across the past few weeks was getting wildly up beyond valuation, our having emphatically pointed to such state in the prior two missives.  But now finally facilitated is Gold’s requisite fall, healthy in spite of it all:

    ‘Course contra to our wary stance — courtesy of the FinMedia —  emerged the “Suddenly Everybody’s a Gold Expert Dept.” proclaiming the price of 3000 being imminent.  And thus it did not happen, oft normal in such market-amateur hysterias.

    Rightly instead, Gold as anticipated whirled ’round down to record its third worst week in better than a year, this time dropping -2.8% (-82 points) in settling yesterday at 2867.  Or to put it to music, we cue the Swiss rock band Gotthard from their ’07 song “The Call”: “The higher they fly, the harder they fall…”

    “And, mmb, that really applies now to the stock market, eh?”

    Frighteningly so, Squire.  Indeed to quote George Kennedy in “The Eiger Sanction”  (Universal, ’75):  “They won’t even know it’s coming until it hits.”  Or as a valued charter reader of The Gold Update has on occasion queried:  “Does it really matter which snowflake causes the avalanche?”

    Then this past Thursday (per our daily Prescient Commentary) came Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency at long last breaking down below their +80% axis (as we’ll later see), which is key in having generated this signal in the end-of-day work spree:

    “The obvious question then is, mmb?”

    Squire, “How low is low?”  Thus here we go:  should the present selling become more substantive from the current 2867 level, ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone.  To be sure:  we still expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to eventually trade, directly or indirectly en route to Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high for this year.  But as we’ve herein reminded since New Year (Gold then 2639), the road to 3262 can quite fairly pass through the lower 2500s.  Is that to where this down run is heading?  Nobody knows.  But ’tis better to get the year’s low place before the high.

    And as we been emphasizing, a wayward wrench dropped into the Gold works is inflation.  Recall our title from two missives ago included the phrase “Fed’s Next Hike”.  Apparently “hike” is not an allowable utterance at large.  Rather, press musings oscillate between “cut” and “pause”, with a lean of late toward the latter.  This results from their not implementing math.  Most notably came yesterday’s “Fed-favoured” inflation report for January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures.  The headline number — rather than easing — remained steady at +0.3% whilst the core number’s pace increased from +0.2% to +0.3%.  Here thus is our inflation summary for January:

    No, thy eyes do not thee deceive.  Across the six measures, January’s average annualized inflation pace was +4.4%, more than double the +2.0% ultimately desired by the Federal Open Market Committee, nearly double December’s +2.6% rate, and the most since February a year ago.  But absent the use of mathematics, the once mighty Barron’s (which in recent years we’ve designated as a “children’s pool”) ran yesterday with “Inflation Eased…”  Seriously.  No wonder “The Dow” (that Index at which our parents used to look) gained +601 points.

    So with the inflation scare in the air, Gold duly dropped as it needed to so do anyway, price as below shown arriving smack on the ascending regression trendline from one year ago-to-date per the weekly bars.  Note the parabolic’s flip to Short price is now 2683, which is quite centered in our aforementioned “how low is low” 2703-2641 zone.  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the white metal retreating more swiftly than the yellow metal:

    Lower Gold to be sure, but ’tis not to be distressed.  For with two months of 2025 now in the books, we go to our BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date to again find the Metals Triumvirate leading the whole pack, Copper now atop the stack +13.4% as the red, yellow and white metals dominate the podium:

    And with further specificity to the precious metals, here we’ve the year ago-to-date percentage tracks of Gold along with key of its equities kin, therein finding Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) having doubled at +100%, followed closely by Pan American Silver (PAAS) +91%, and then the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +51%,  Newmont (NEM) +43%, Gold itself +40%, the bunch rounding out with Franco-Nevada (FNV) +36%.  ‘Tis about as good as it gets, even as near-term price decline has set in:

    Hardly in decline since Halloween is the Economic Barometer, instead sporting on balance the mildest of rises.  ‘Course as we’ve pointed out across some 27 years of maintaining the Baro, increasing inflation works as a positive influence as it raises the nominal values of many-a-metric.  Either way for this past week’s 11 incoming metrics, five bettered their prior period, five were worse, and steady was the first revision to Q4’s Gross Domestic Product at an annualized  +2.3% pace:

    As for yesterday’s S&P 500 big post-White House brawl rally, we eye it as a “dead cat bounce” given the significant deterioration of late in the Index’s Moneyflow regressed into S&P points.  By the website’s S&P Moneyflow page, the Index per this leading indicator “ought be” some 180-to-230 points lower than currently ’tis (5955).  Still, a tip of the cap to just concluded Q4 Earnings Season:  therein, 454 S&P 500 constituents reported, 69% of them bettering their bottom lines from a year ago, which across the past 31 reporting quarters has averaged 66%.  But as we point out ad nauseam, the overall level of earnings remains terribly weak given the price of the Index, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P now 43.3x.  So stay suspect when it comes to stocks.

    Not suspect a wit (per the “SELL” in the table earlier displayed) is the inevitable cascade in Gold’s “Baby Blues”, the red-encircled dot below confirming such signal.  So as is our month-end wont, here we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across the past 21 trading days (one month).  And you know the jingle: “Follow the blues, instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:

    Next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Clearly at 2867, Gold is better than -100 points below its recent All-Time High (2974 this past Monday), whilst Silver has traveled from the 34s back to the 31s.  Notable volume-dominant prices are as labeled:

    And with February now in the books, ’tis once again Gold Structure time by the month across some 16 calendar years.  Take note of “The Infamous Triple-Top” whereby each candle closed well below its respective month’s high, price then declining over the ensuing months:  our rightmost candle now for February has the same characteristic.  The good news “as ever” is Gold by currency debasement remains very cheap indeed.  Nonetheless, here’s the graphic:

    So thus far for 2025 we’ve two months down (both net-net up for Gold) and ten to go.  As noted, in the year’s balance remain Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 and our projected Golden Goal Three of 3262 for the high.  Yet ahead of such ascent we’ve this current descent, for which as stated we are thankful given major markets are not unidirectional.  However, one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came.  Either way, in the words of The Gold Update’s first ever reader away back in 2009 (JGS):  “We’ll watch it together.”

    So be a cool cat and stay with your Gold!

    The Gold Update: No. 797 – (22 February 2025) – “Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 797th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date“

    Let’s commence with another infamous Gold Update quiz!  Ready?

    Since at least this very day a month ago (22 January), what technically until yesterday (21 February) have both Gold and the S&P 500 had in common?

    “They’ve been overbought day-after-day, right mmb?”

    Spot-on there, Squire.  Per near-term widely-used “textbook technicals”, (in our case the potent cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, plus Relative Strength and a generous dash of Stochastics), we’ve Gold now “overbought” through the past 29 trading sessions (since 08 January), as had been the case for the S&P 500 through 21 trading sessions (since 22 January) until finally yesterday it began to all go wrong.

    But of greater import than technical excess, fundamentally both Gold and the S&P instead remain 180° out of phase.  As we regularly remind, whilst the major markets are never wrong, they can be terrifically misvalued.  And ’tis quite stark for this pair:

    • Gold, in settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 2950, is still well shy of the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement valuation level of 3843; in other words, Gold is trading at a -23% discount to its true value.

    • The S&P 500, in settling its week at 6013, remains maniacally expensive, the honestly-calculated price/earnings ratio now 45.7x versus the 25.4x reading a dozen years ago; in other words, the S&P 500 is trading at a +80% premium to such normalized value.

    Or if you prefer, the S&P is today at a +154% premium vis-à-vis Jerome B. Cohen’s “in bull markets the average [p/e] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings”.  But we digress…

    The point specific to Gold is:  to be sure, ’tis still today a magnificent value, even in having achieved yet another marginal All-Time High this past Thursday at 2973.  In fact, through these first eight trading weeks of 2025, all have been up for Gold, price itself year-to-date now +12%.  Moreover — in the pure vacuum of linear regression — Gold is on pace to finish this year +93% at 5093(!)  ‘Course, such level would be ridiculously overvalued above Dollar debasement, and again (as we did pen back in 2011) Gold shall “have gotten ahead of itself”.  No, this year ’tis not going to happen.

    But in context with our missive’s title, Gold has reached rarified air in terms of consecutive up weeks.  Its last down week was that ending last year.  And now for just the fifth mutually-exclusive (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means non-overlapping) instance — for the 1,260 weeks thus far this century — Gold has recorded eight or more consecutive up weeks.  Here’s the summary, the current up streak emboldened therein:

    Indeed per our prior piece, we’d a bit of a bias toward last week being down.  Not so much given Gold’s “textbook overbought” state, but rather by our proprietary, reliable measure of price versus its smooth valuation line, which as you regular readers knows gauges Gold’s movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  Here’s the updated graphic from a year ago-to-date, the red encirclements indicative of price essentially being +200 points “high” above the smooth line.  Note when this last occurred in April a year ago, price swiftly sank from 2400 to 2300, then to remain stalled in that range until July:

    “But the news says everybody’s buying, mmb…”

    We love Squire’s tee-up comments, and the FinMedia certainly is taking a rare above-average notice of Gold.  ‘Course — courtesy of the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.” — if “everybody’s buying” then too “everybody’s selling”; ’tis just that more offers are being hit than bids, price thus rising.  And as stated, such has been the case through this year’s first eight weeks as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost eight closing nubs ascending in green:

    Too, never has the phrase “Gold 3000!” been so bandied about by “everybody”.  You’ll recall from last week’s wrap our referring to the late Art Cashin (best last name ever for a stock market maven) having quipped that should a stock reach up to the price of 90, then 100 shall trade.  And thus Gold having already had 2900 trade would correspondingly see 3000, (which obviously it ultimately shall).  For as you know,  we’ve Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000, and then by year-end, Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high.

    But having been in this business across many-a-decade, one learns that when something “Well obviously!” is imminent to happen … it oft doesn’t.  As we’ve clearly set forth, the price of Gold near-term is significantly stretched to the upside such that a series of pullback weeks may well now be in order.  Too, as mentioned back at New Year in forecasting 3262 for this year’s high, we specifically stated that the road to that level can reasonably pass through the lower 2500s.  And what an additional buying opportunity that would be.  As is regularly said in this business, we’ll see…

    In seeing to the StateSide economy, the Conference Board issued January’s “Leading Indicators” as having had an on-balance decline of -0.3%, whereas as next depicted in the Economic Barometer, that month’s metrics have instead sported a bit of an up bend.  The difference lies in the Conference Board’s assemblage of 10 key monthly indicators versus our aggregation of some 50 metrics.  To the Board’s credit, they regularly make prior month revisions such that come February’s report (20 March) we may see January’s result bumped back up a pip or two: 

    Either way, February metrics from last week showed quite notable month-over-month declines in the National Association of Home Builders Index, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and in the revision to the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey.  And the ensuing week brings the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for January of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

    But stranger still:  the stock market actually went down on the poor news!  This hasn’t materially happened (without looking it all up) since the March 2020 onset of COVID.  Indeed the new paradigm since then has strictly been “Earnings and economic data are irrelevant because bad news means the Fed has to cut rates!”  Or has that strategy of buying stocks on negative news just stopped working?

    With the aforementioned S&P 500 p/e ratio now 45.7x, are earnings soon to matter again?  With the annualized dividend yield on the S&P now 1.253%, is investing $100,000 in the mighty Index worth the $1,253 return in addition to it being hoovered away and then some should stocks suffer?  After all, for the 45 years from 1980 through 2024, the S&P has actually posted years that were down, (’tis said younger traders don’t understand that), in fact on average once every four years … but there’s been only one down year in the past six!  Oh no, say it ain’t so!

    And yet, $100,000 invested in the U.S. One-Year Treasury Bill now shall return $4,168:  that’s more than triple the S&P’s yield and you get your money back!  What a concept, eh?  Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame … think about it.  Once again, on verra…

    Too scary, let alone risky, is the stock market.  So let’s get back to Gold …  Good ol’ Gold!

    And turning to our two-panel Gold graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, never in our immediate memory have we ever seen such a pasting on the ceiling for the baby blue dots of trend consistency.  Year-to-date, price has been as close to “straight up” as is conceivable.  ‘Course, Gold being a major liquid market, such trend shan’t last; but ’tis been the most amazing ride of late.  As for the Profile, note that volume-dominant support falls away below 2931:

    Then there’s “poor ol’ Sister Silver”, albeit trading in the 33s, hardly is she “poor”.  But in her like graphic, she’s not been (at left) as robustly up as has been Gold, whilst per her Profile (at right) she’s jammed into the center of a trading range essentially spanning from 32.25 up to 33.40.  Yet priced to the century-to-date 68.8x average of the Gold/Silver ratio (the actual ratio currently 89.9x), Silver rather than at 32.83 today would instead be +31% higher at 42.90 … just in case you’re scoring at home:

    Speaking of scoring, to wrap, the U.S. Treasury (as you’ve no doubt read) presently “scores” the United States Bullion Depository supply of Gold at $42/oz.  Therein said facility — just on the outskirts of Fort Knox, Kentucky — is “officially” (in round numbers) some 147,300,000 ounces of Gold according to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), for an accounting value of $6,174,000,000.  That is how much the U.S. Federal Government spends about every 10 hours.  (Do the math if you must, starting with the annual spend of $6,740,000,000,000).  Makes ya feel kinda small, what?  However:  marked-to-market at $2950/oz. puts the value — were it all liquidated at that price — to a supply total of $433,650,000,000 which essentially would run the federal government for one month.  That’s it.

    The Gold Update: No. 796 – (15 February 2025) – “Gold’s Price Spike; Fed’s Next Hike”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 796th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Price Spike; Fed’s Next Hike““

    “This is where it starts to get fun.”

    If said phrase ran across your mind during this past week, worry not: for it, too, ran through our mind.  And thus it having run through both your mind and our mind, then it also ran through the many minds of those financially math-inclined.  For there was more meat in this past week than one might have expected to digest (barring having imbibed in a settling digestive).

    First, per our title, let’s assess “Gold’s Price Spike”. For en route to (barely) completing a seventh consecutive up week, Gold on Tuesday made a “Trump Tariffs!” spike up to as high as 2968, a mere 32 points from achieving the Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000.  For whilst much of the western world slept, Gold took off like a jet from Tuesday’s open at 2937 to 2968, a +31-point spike in just three hours.  ‘Course it being a price spike, ’twas swiftly short-lived and then some within the 30 minutes that followed.

    Further, given fears of renewed inflation made manifest come Wednesday’s StateSide Consumer Price Index, Gold gave up the entirety of the week’s gain to that point on the metric’s staggering shock.  But, another “Global Trade War!” buying binge nonetheless ensued, only to be purged anew, Gold then settling yesterday (Friday) at 2894 for a bare gain of just +8 points for the week.  Here are those five days (10-14 February) by the hour:

    And no, thy eyes do not thee deceive, for on the graphic ’tis queried “Fed Rate HIKE?”  Indeed, with respect to the balance of this week’s title, recall these statements from the past two editions of The Gold Update:

    1)  01 February:  “…an inflation scare followed by a Federal Reserve rate hike, should they dare, something for which the financial world at large seems unaware…”

    2)  08 February:  “…an inflationary scare could cause a Fed flare (again, should they dare), in turn substantiating a Gold price pare…“

    Indeed a scare:  January’s headline CPI pace of +0.5% was well beyond experts’ consensus of +0.3%, as too was the core of +0.4%.

    But wait there’s more:  The Producer Price Index then arrived Thursday — also above consensus — with headline and core respectively +0.4% and +0.3% … but did you see the revisions to December’s paces?  Headline PPI was recalculated from +0.2% to +0.5% and core from a flat 0.0% to +0.4% –> Across the 27 years of maintaining the Economic Barometer, ’tis but the third time headline PPI has been revised by +0.3% (and never greater) and the very first time core has been revised by as much as +0.4%.  Is this a result of too much holiday consumption of “egg nog” over there at the Bureau of Labor Statistics?  Such are the optics…  Again per our opening statement “This is where it starts to get fun.”

    As to Gold’s rightmost price spike — indeed to another All-Time High of 2968 — here ’tis graphically portrayed by the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now four weeks in duration:

    Certainly still in play is our Golden Goal Two “milestone” level of 3000.  And yes, ’tis still quite reachable during the course of this current Long trend.  Yet that said, we see (at least one) down week ahead.  To be sure, Gold today at 2894 fundamentally remains -25% undervalued vis-à-vis the opening Gold Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3837.  But near-term Gold is technically overvalued as we again bring up our BEGOS Markets’ (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) metric for pricing Gold per its movement relative to those of the other four components.  And by the lower panel oscillator of price less value, Gold now reads as +160 points “high” above its smooth valuation line:

    Moreover by standardized technical measures (our cocktail of Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics), we’ve Gold now “textbook overbought” through 25 consecutive trading sessions dating back to 10 January … just in case you’re scoring at home.  So whilst Goal Two for “milestone” 3000 remains well in the cards, (not to mention Goal Three of 3262 for this year’s forecast high), uni-directionality applies neither to Gold nor any major market, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means Gold shan’t go straight up.

    Still, making a bit of a turn up of late is the aforementioned Econ Baro.  As you long-time readers know, inflation — which just “suddenly” leapt back onto center stage — when rising is a Baro positive as nominal levels of various metrics increase in kind.  ‘Course as we’ve herein mentioned, ’tis stagflation that’s the worry.  Recall this from two missives ago with respect to the first peek at Q4’s Gross Domestic Product:  “…per the ‘Chain Deflator’, whereas inflation contributed to 38% of nominal Q3 GDP growth, for Q4 the inflation component increased to 49%.  Thus … slowing growth + increasing inflation = stagflation…“  And did you note the downswing in January’s Retail Sales by -0.9% versus +0.7% for December?

    “But mmb, that’s just seasonal after holiday spending…”

    Au contraire, mon Squire cher.  Through the past 27 years, only 12 (44%) of such December-January seasonal shifts have been negative.  A bit too much information perhaps, but conventional wisdom is oft oxymoronic.  Here’s the Baro:

    Meanwhile, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (6115) is but a wee -0.2% below its intrad-day all-time high (6128 this past 24 January).  In turn, our honestly-calculated “live” price/earnings ratio is now 47.7x.  (Yes, we comprehensively understand that earnings have become completely irrelevant to pricing shares; otherwise, the S&P today would be just either side of 3000).

    So instead, ’tis “Nuthin’ but Fed!”  And therein lies the confusion.  The StateSide President is insistent that the Fed further cut rates.  FedChair Powell sees the economy as too robust to warrant rate cuts.  And we see inflation as reasonably rampant to warrant rate hikes.  For not only has inflation not calmed down to the Fed’s preferred +2.0% annualized target, ’tis instead now moving further up and away from it.  Still, the “Fed favoured” inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) for January doesn’t arrive for another two weeks (28 February). If that too has popped, words such as “hike” and “raise” shall start to be FinMedia propped.

    Left without a prop on Friday were both Gold and Silver:  the yellow metal’s intra-day drop of -2.5% was the worst since 18 December, whilst that for Silver of a whopping -5.5% was its worst since 12 December.  Both cases are below shown by their rightmost bars for Gold on the left with Silver on the right.  ‘Tis been a fine move — especially for Gold — across the past three months-to-date, albeit Friday might be referred to as a “technical failure” rather than an imminent trip toward Goal Two (“milestone” 3000).  That stated, as technically overbought is our Gold, ’tis primarily at present being fundamentally driven from one headline to the next, (per our hourly chart earlier displayed).  And as ever, mind those “Baby Blues” of trend consistency(!): 

    Too for the precious metals we’ve next their 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  The yellow metal (currently 2894) may turn dicey sub-2888, whilst the white metal (currently 32.66) has just slipped under her 32.75 dominant volume support price:

    So if you are thinking that we are thinking “down” is Gold’s watchword for this ensuing week, yes we agree, albeit as aforementioned, price of late is being headline-driven.  Still as we turn to the stack, Gold year-to-date is well in the black:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3837
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2968 (11 February 2025)
    2025’s High:  2968 (11 February)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 2968 (from 2802) = +166 points or +5.9%
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2957 (13 February 2025)
    Trading Resistance:  notable overhead Profile nodes 2931 and 2944
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2903
    Gold Currently:  2894, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  34 points)
    Trading Support:  most notably 2888, then 2875
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2607
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2424 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    Next week brings just a moderate dose of data for the Econ Baro, notable of which come Thursday (20 February) is the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators for January.  Again for regular readers, you know our penchant for referring to such metric as “lagging” given the Baro has already told the tale.  Thus the consensus for a flat January — or maybe +0.1% at best — makes sense. 

    Just ensure your Gold and Silver portfolio shares are many percent!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 795 – (08 February 2025) – “Gold Teases 2900; to 3000 Unencumbered?”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 795th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Teases 2900; to 3000 Unencumbered?“

    The price of Gold just completed its sixth consecutive up week, within which the past three thus far comprise the newest weekly parabolic Long trend.  Indeed through this latest week, Gold continued to attain All-Time Highs, teasing yesterday (Friday) up through 2900 to 2910 before settling at 2886.

    Moreover as you regular readers already know, our Golden Goal Two (of three) is the “milestone” level of 3000.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 93 points, within that vacuum, 3000 (+114 points from here) is certainly “within range” by month’s end.  But are six consecutive up weeks already getting a bit long in the tooth for Gold?

    Just in case you’re scoring at home, century-to-date there are now 1,258 trading weeks in the books.  And therein we’ve had 176 Gold up streaks of two or more weeks.  However, Gold’s having completed an up streak of at least six weeks (such as to now) has only happened 14 mutually-exclusive times, the record being 12 up weeks from 20 August 2007 through 09 November 2007 for a net price gain of +26%.  As stated, this new weekly parabolic is but three weeks young per the rightmost blue dots…

    …and as comprehensively detailed in our 25 January missive “Gold Goes Long with Three Golden Goals”, the average duration of the prior 10 such Long trends (dating back to December 2020) was 12 weeks.  Further, the average price gain was +10.5% which as penned per our “Moderate assessment … would bring Gold 3069″.

    ‘Course, neither you, nor we, nor anybody “knows” when Gold 3000 shall trade.  But because we do the math, hardly would we bet against it ever happening, and reaching 3000 not only this year but on this current weekly parabolic Long trend — even as noted with this month — is quite reasonable.  And lest we forget more broadly, Golden Goal Three is our 3262 forecast high for this year, beyond which per the opening Gold Scoreboard, price by Dollar debasement already “ought be” 3833. 

    Still, six consecutive up weeks for Gold and our being aware of an inflationary scare could cause a Fed flare (again, should they dare), in turn substantiating a Gold price pare.  For did you note yesterday’s +0.5% Hourly Earnings increase within January’s StateSide Non-Farm Payrolls?  That ties as the largest such increase for just the third time across the past 27 months.  And century-to-date, the average monthly increase is but +0.3%, itself annualized being +3.6% and thus above the Federal Reserve’s desired overall +2.0% pace.  Oh that wily wage-push inflation!   “Whoopsie…”

    Too, by Gold’s broad-based 300-day moving average, price today is nearly +20% above such stalwart measure.  Historically since 2001, such excesses have been met with an average decline of nearly -9% during the ensuing three months.  Here’s Gold by the day since the 22 August 2011 then All-Time Closing High of 1900, the 300-day moving average as ever in blue:

    Also using our BEGOS Markets’ (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) valuation tool which assesses the state of Gold relative to its movement vis-à-vis that of the other four components, price is at present +174 points above its “smooth valuation line” as is below seen per the lower panel oscillator (price less value).  Whilst that can be deemed as “high”, ’tis nevertheless a testament to Gold’s year-over-year brilliant bull run:

    Sporting a far more flat run for nearly the past six months is our Economic Barometer.  To wit for the 16 incoming metrics during the week just past, period-over-period, eight improved and eight weakened:  “flat” indeed.  Amongst the standouts however, January’s ADP Employment data and both December’s Construction Spending and Consumer Credit levels all bettered their prior readings, all of which were in turn revised upward, and beat consensii.  But those losing out in all three like categories were January’s Average Workweek (in hours) along with the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index, December’s Factory Orders and Trade Deficit, plus the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.  A clash of many metrics indeed!  Here’s the Baro:

    As for the S&P 500, its futures contract these past two Mondays saw substantive opening down gaps such that price intra-day fell -3.0% (27 January) and -2.1% (03 February); but in both cases, the gaps filled all the way back up.  Has investing become this easy?  Indeed, has the Investing Age of Stoopid become an eternal paradigm?  Recall the Wall Street Journal front-and-center piece back pre-DotComBomb about some folks actually believing stock prices only go up?  For all who still frolic in the complacent equities’ froth, we again humbly offer this one reminder:  the same-day “lock limit down” halts for the S&P futures are -7%, then -13%, and finally -20% (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “TILT! Game Over!“)

    But for Gold, ’tis been nothing but “Game On!”  Below we’ve our two-panel display featuring the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The baby blue dots of regression trend consistency quite literally have pasted themselves upon the ceiling, which if we may reprise, suggests this fabulous uptrend may seeking at least some near-term bend.  Per the Profile, Gold’s volume-dominant support levels are 2845, 2797 and 2772:

    Again perhaps not as robust as that for Gold — but sterling nevertheless — is the like graphic for Silver, her daily bars (below left) and Profile (below right).  And as we’ve be saying week-in and week-out for some four years, Silver as gauged by her ratio from Gold (currently 89.7x) remains cheap, the ratio’s century-to-date average being 68.7x.  Indeed priced to that average today, Silver rather than at her current 32.19 price would instead be 42.00.  But we know you shan’t forget Sister Silver:

    So to sum it all up:  Gold is having a fabulous run, that realistically shall become at least a bit undone given the reality which herein penned a week ago that “hardly are markets unidirectional”.

    Yet so stated, per our title, is the tease at 2900 to in turn bring 3000 unencumbered?  Such query puts us back in mind better than 20 years ago when (admittedly out of ignorance) we’d gawk at FinTV thinking we could be on the cutting edge of markets’ directions.

    “Oh that was pretty ignorant, mmb…”

    Squire, your affirmation of such is illustriously inspiring.  But to our point:  rumbling ’round the floor of the New Stock Stock Exchange in those days was one Arthur D. Cashin, Jr.  And we’ve always remembered this quip from him:  “Usually, if a stock gets to 90, it’s goin’ to 100.”

    Thus by such theory you can see where we’re going with this:  Gold having now reached 2900 means ’tis going to 3000, albeit by what we’ve herein noted today, perhaps not directly … but eventually.  Because as aforementioned, Golden Goal Three for this year remains our forecast high for 3262!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 794 – (01 February 2025) – “Gold Achieves Golden Goal 1 of 3 – A Fresh All-Time High”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 794th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Achieves Golden Goal 1 of 3 – A Fresh All-Time High“

    As anticipated would happen this past week per “Gold Goes Long with Three Golden Goals”, Goal One “the next All-Time High for Gold”, was achieved upon the February contract price crossing above 2802 on Thursday at 13:39 GMT, in furtherance moving to as high as 2838 before settling yesterday (Friday) at 2809.  Now add in +23 points of April contract premium (February having yesterday gone off the board) and Gold’s “continuous contract” stands today at 2832.  Indeed as herein penned a week ago, getting to Goal One would be EPLS (“easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy”).  Waiting in the wings is the Goal Two “milestone” of reaching 3000, followed during the balance of the year by Goal Three being our forecast high of 3262.

    All very bullish to be sure, but we’ve wariness as well that markets do not move in a straight line.  For as depicted back in this year’s opening missive, the route to 3262 may well pass through the very low 2500s, especially should the new weekly parabolic Long trend be short-lived notably from an inflation scare followed by a Federal Reserve rate hike, should they dare, something for which the financial world at large seems unaware.

    “Oh, c’mon mmb, there’s no way they’d raise, right?”

    ‘Tis at present not expected, Squire.  The StateSide President is glowering over the Fed to resume cutting its rates.  We instead are scouring inflation rates.  And with December’s key inflation measures  now in the books, one may say the Open Market Committee’s unanimously voting per last Wednesday’s Policy Statement to “maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent“ was arguably the right thing to do.  For little did the en masse state of inflation change month-over-month.  Problematic thereto, however, is that every inflation metric save for the Core Producer Price Index — be it by 12-month summation or by December’s pace annualized — is still above the Fed’s goal of 2.0%.  To wit, our updated inflation table, paces with red backgrounds in excess of 2.0%:

    Thus we await inflation reports for January and February toward the FOMC’s next decision due 19 March.  Conventional FinMedia wisdom apparently assumes rate cuts are to resume, whereas we’ll side with the math for what the Fed may decide.

    As to “The Now”, decisiveness for the BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date sits with Silver getting the best bid so far with our Metals Triumvirate dominating the podium.  We’ve advocated for some four years “Don’t forget the Silver!” as the Gold/Silver ratio since March 2021(then 66x) has climbed up and away from its century-to-date average which today is 68.7x versus the actual ratio now of 87.8x.  So yes, Sister Silver is leading the BEGOS bunch, but she’s still cheap!  Here’s the whole gang:

    Indeed speaking of Silver, let’s take a peek at Pan American Silver (PAAS) which year-over-year is +71%, second only amongst the key precious metals’ equities brethren to Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) that is +88%.  Filling out the following graphic of their respective percentage tracks, we also see the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) and Gold itself both +38%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +34%,  Franco-Nevada (FNV) +26%, and the lately laggard Newmont (NEM) finally +24%:

    Specific to Gold, as noted ’tis in a new weekly parabolic Long trend per the next chart’s two rightmost blue dots.  To be sure, the trend across the whole one-year graphic is ever so pristinely positive.  In fact, extrapolating the dashed regression trendline through the final 47 remaining weeks in 2025 puts the year-end price at 3452 (some +190 points above our forecast 3262 high).  But again as duly written, hardly are markets unidirectional, and for Gold on this present parabolic Long trend to achieve Goal Two of the 3000 “milestone” would be fabulous.  Indeed were the dashed trendline’s pace to be maintained, Gold would reach that goal in 14-weeks’ time by that ending 08 May.  Not to hold one’s breath, but ’tis for something to play:

    Turning to the StateSide economy, if you’re like us, upon the FOMC releasing a Policy Statement, we absolutely avoid exposing ourselves to the FinMedia and their excitedly emotional excesses.  Rather, we simply read the actual Statement.  And if you so did this past Wednesday, you’ll recall the opening sentence:  “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”

    Now in the Fed’s defense (assuming by Wednesday they were not tipped off by the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Q4 GDP data and December’s PCE data, respectively released Thursday and Friday), the FOMC did not see the stagflative suggestions therein.

    “You say ‘stagflative’, mmb?”

    Indubitably so, dear Squire.  First to Gross Domestic Product, for which “real” Q4 growth came in at a +2.3% annualized pace, having thus slowed from +3.1% in Q3.  But wait, there’s more:  per the “Chain Deflator”, whereas inflation contributed to 38% of nominal Q3 GDP growth, for Q4 the inflation component increased to 49%.  Thus as you learned in “B” school:  slowing growth + increasing inflation = stagflation.  Further, both of the Personal Consumption Expenditures readings increased for December, such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge increasing from +0.1% to +0.3% (headline) and +0.1% to +0.2% (core).  What it all means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is you’re growing less but paying more.  Here’s the Baro:

    However, on balance for the week the Baro managed a wee uptick.  Yet fickle amongst the 12 incoming metrics was Home Sales data.  For December, New Home Sales increased, beat consensus, and had November revised upward; but in a mirror image, December’s Pending Home Sales decreased, missed consensus, and had November revised downward.

    As for the S&P 500 which fundamentally remains catastrophically overvalued given puny earnings, we’ve gone on-and-on since COVID that — earnings aside — the math-challenged FinMedia had remained rather vapid for coming up with a crash catalyst.  But now, per the above graphic and to use an expression from the old Westerns, “They’ve got their man!”  Who better, eh?   More on the S&P in our wrap.

    But next let’s wrap ourselves ’round the BEGOS Markets of late.  Earlier, you saw their Standings.  Now here are the past 21 daily bars bars for all eight components with — save for Oil — all in linear regression uptrends, even as the Dollar is (barely) not net down for the year.  The baby blue dots are, of course, the day-to-day depiction of each grey trendline’s consistency.  And those for Copper (in certain circumstances considered to be a leader of precious metals’ prices) are in retreat; something for which to be sensitive:

    As to the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, with Gold on the left the upper 2700s appear supportive, whilst with Silver on the right same can be said for the lower 31s:

    And it being month-end, ’tis time to update our view of Gold’s layered structure by the month across the last 16 years.  Indeed January was a fine start to the year for Gold:

    To wrap, as noted we’ve (yet another) cautionary note with respect to the S&P 500.  The Index’s all-time closing high is 6119 as of just seven trading days ago on 23 January.  But since the ensuing six trading days — including the “Daunt de DeepSeek” of Monday, 27 January (prior to which you’ll recall we’d last week penned “…the next … ‘correction’ … shall morph Wall Street emotion from ‘No Fear!’ into ‘Nuthin’ BUT Fear!’…”) — the S&P has lost a net -78 points to now sit at 6041 (en route having been down as many as -156 points to 5963 during that Monday’s quickie-crash).  Moreover, (hat-tip Dow Jones Newswires), Deutsche Bank suggested such “…impact may see market deflate as in dot-com bust…”  Yet it giddily then came all the way back to “fill the gap”.  Oh is Wall Street — albeit now terribly fragile — ever so relieved that it didn’t all go wrong (yet).

    But here’s the part for which they’ve not been informed (barring their following the website’s MoneyFlow page):  the S&P’s net change from the all-time high to right now via the MoneyFlow regressed onto the  S&P scale is -668 (“minus six-hundred sixty-eight”) points.  In other words for those of you scoring at home:  the S&P is now -78 points below its all-time closing high; but by its MoneyFlow ’tis -668 same-scale points below same.  And as you know, flow leads dough:

    Or to reprise Bachman Turner Overdrive from back in ’74: “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet…”

    Thus let it be Gold that gets your dough!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 793 – (25 January 2025) – “Gold Goes Long with Three Golden Goals”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 793rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 25 January 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Goes Long with Three Golden Goals“

    Gold’s weekly parabolic trend finally (after a 10-week Short run) flipped to Long this past Tuesday at 15:19 GMT upon price eclipsing the 2759 level toward settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 2777.  ‘Twas a beautiful thAng, and in thanking our valued republishers we penned:  “…we look forward to a modicum of rejoicing in next Saturday’s edition …”

    Thus without further ado, ’tis to rejoice:

    Nevertheless, we indeed employ the noun “modicum” as in this business we know to be measured and math-oriented (unlike much of the modern-day shameless pap that passes for “analysis”:  “Well, ya know, the stock’s gonna triple in the next two weeks…” Good grief.  Put a sock in in it).

    “But to your title’s point about ‘Three Golden Goals’, mmb?” 

    And point-blank here they are, dear Squire, each being a key Gold price:

    • Goal One: 2802 = the next All-Time High for Gold.  The present such high (precisely 2801.8) was achieved this past 30 October.  When is the next?  As soon as Monday given present price (2777) is just -25 points below 2802 with Gold’s EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) per the website now 33 points.  Or certainly so within the new week given the EWTR (“expected weekly trading range”) is now 87 points.  Thus barring Gold only dropping like a stone from the get-go on Monday, 2802 is (to use a technical term) “easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy” (EPLS).

    • Goal Two:  3000 = nothing more than a “milestone” level up through which price shall eventually proceed.  Were our numerical world calculated in “Base 8” rather than “Base 10”, 3000 would instead be 5670, bereft of “milestone” meaning.  Regardless, Gold 3000 ought bring the mo-mo crowd to the fore in propelling price up even more.  ‘Tis achievable during this new Long trend.

    • Goal Three:  3262 = our forecast Gold high for this year as reasonably penned in our opening missive this year on 04 January.  But is that out of reach for the new Long trend?  Probably, (yet see below…)

    So in specific context to the above three Gold price goals, let’s go straightaway to the math of what to rationally expect for Gold’s price rise near-term.  And no better foundation for which to measure this next Gold up leg than by reviewing price’s performance across the prior ten weekly parabolic Long trends commencing back on New Year’s Eve at the end of 2020.  The following table depicts Gold’s respective maximum gains by both price and percentage recorded for each Long trend.  We’ll then assess for this new Long trend its potential upside on a conservative, moderate, and aggressive basis:

    Conservative assessment:   as aforementioned, Gold can simply drop like a stone from here, thus rendering useless the above table.  But let us focus on the rightmost column “Max Pct. Gained” during the life of each Long trend.  Therein the weakest of the bunch is +1.9%.  Repeat only that distance this time ’round would nonetheless bring Gold from its present 2777 to 2830 … and thus the attainment of Goal One (2802) as a fresh All-Time High.  A bit more realistically, note the average gain of +10.5% — less the standard deviation of -6.3% — in turn leaving +4.2% as a suggested “minimum expected gain”:  that yields Gold 2894.

    Moderate assessment:   simply that average gain of +10.5% which would bring Gold 3069 … and thus the attainment of Goal Two (3000) as a “milestone”.

    Aggressive assessment:   note in the same  “Max Pct. Gained” column there are two instances of Gold exceeding gains of +17%.  ‘Tis admittedly a bit of a stretch, but from 2777 to our Goal Three (3262) forecast high becomes a gain of +17.5% … just in case you’re scoring at home.  However, given our measured thinking, we’d “expect” at least one more weekly parabolic Short trend to intervene before Gold flies to the 3262 prize.

    Indeed, Gold’s low thus far this year is only 2625 (06 January).  Recall from our 04 January piece:  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates … 2507.  Then would follow the ascent to [the] forecast high of 3262…”

    Thus we ought not be put off upon still lower levels occurring en route.  To wit:  following next Wednesday’s (29 January) “maintain” Policy Statement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee comes Friday’s release of December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices.  Such “Fed-favoured” gauge is expected to reveal inflation as once again increasing.  That in turn opens the door … depending on February and March inflation readings … of a Fed rate hike come the FOMC’s 19 March Policy Statement.  Wariness of such could well cap Gold’s up run, making this new Long trend short-lived.

    “But mmb, what if the 2625 low is already in for this year?”

    Squire, were that to turn out to be the case, then our forecast for a 3262 year’s high may be deemed in hindsight as modest.

    Quintessentially modest across the past four months is our Economic Barometer.  And amongst the ensuing week’s incoming set of 13 metrics, two are specific to the first read of StateSide Q4 GDP.  Going by the flat Baro below, one cannot anticipate much growth.  Consensus suggests a slowing from Q3’s annualized +3.1% to +2.3% for Q4.

    But wait, there’s more:  the inflation component therein is expected to have risen from +1.9% to +2.4%.  In other words for you WestPalmBeachers down there, Q4’s growth is “expected” to be rather stagflative, (such multi-syllabic adjective perhaps a bit much for them).

    But way too much for anyone invested in the S&P 500 is its relentlessly high “live” price/earnings ratio of 47.2x.  (Note:  “AI” says … in using trailing 12-month earnings as do we … ’tis 28.8x; yet another example of Assembled Inaccuracy’s inability to do math).  Here’s the picture:

    “But Q4 earnings are supposed to be great, eh mmb?”

    ‘Tis a good news/bad news scenario there, Squire.  To be sure for the S&P 500, Q4 Earnings Season is off to an excellent start.  Typically for the S&P, about 450 companies report with the season’s calendar guidelines.  Thus far, about 12% are in the books, within which 71% have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago:  that is an above-average showing of improvement, and hence ’tis the good news.

    Now for the bad news (and if you regularly read us and/or visit the website’s S&P 500 “Valuation and Rankings” page you already well-know this):  the overall level of earnings — even as improving — remains ridiculously low compared to what entities are willing to pay to own shares.  If in our solar system Earth represents P/E acceptability, the current 47.2x level is on beyond Neptune, past the ex-planet Pluto, indeed reaching galaxies unknown.  Again we remind:  had COVID never occurred nor the subsequent “creation” of $7T, the S&P today would tolerably be — by today’s actual earnings generation — ’round the upper red line of the 46-year based regression channel:

    Thus beware to those who roll their eyes over talk of a pending -50% S&P “correction”:  the possibility is quite real given we’ve already endured two such “corrections” in just the last quarter century.  Remember from the S&P’s high (1553) on 24 March 2000 that it took better than 13 years for the Index to settle just +2% higher?  Imagine how that would fare with today’s low-information, short-attention span, instant gratification crowd that vastly populate this Investing Age of Stoopid.  In fact, it might be a good idea to invest in diaper manufacturers.  For the next like “correction” — regardless of when it comes — shall morph Wall Street emotion from “No Fear!” into “Nuthin’ BUT Fear!”

    ‘Course, then there’s Gold. Ahhh, beautifully wonderful Gold!  Here we’ve the two-panel graphic of the yellow metal’s daily closes from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. And you know the drill for the baby blue dots of trend consistency:  “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes.”  Too, there are a bevy of volume-driven price supports as labeled in the Profile:

    Silver of late has not fared as directly up as has Gold.  To the white metal’s like display, wherein (below left) her price has tailed off somewhat and her “Baby Blues” have stalled.  You may earlier have noted in Gold’s weekly bars graphic the Gold/Silver ratio now being up to 89.5x, its highest reading in this young year-to-date.  And unlike the Market Profile support structure for Gold, Silver’s (below right) appears more overhead resistive.  Has Sister Silver exchanged her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket, given Cousin Copper having come off of late?  ‘Tis on occasion her wont to be a bad girl…

    In sum, we anticipate further near-term rising for Gold, barring — as duly noted — an inflation/Fed-hike scare.

    Moreover, let’s close with this critical notion:  in addition to the three Golden goals herein described, there is, of course, a fourth:

    • Goal Four: 3822 = the opening Scoreboard’s current Dollar debasement valuation of Gold, even as adjusted for the yellow metal’s own supply increase.  No, we shan’t get there within this new weekly parabolic Long trend, let alone this year.  But ’tis sitting out there…

    Reprise:  “Got Gold?”

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 792 – (18 January 2025) – “Gold Gets Close, but No Cigar”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 792nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 18 January 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Gets Close, but No Cigar“

    “So near and yet so far.”  So says Nick-Nack to Francisco Scaramanga, –[“The Man with the Golden Gun”, Eon/UA, ’74].  So quintessentially perfect, too, does it describe Gold’s rally this past week wherein price on Thursday came within just five points (at 2758) of eclipsing the weekly parabolic Short trend level of 2763 which would have flipped said trend to Long.  But instead, price then faltered to 2729, still to rebound yesterday (Friday) up to within four points (at 2759), only to then again sink back in settling the week at 2740.  Thus the still ongoing Short trend just completed its tenth consecutive red-dotted week per this chart of Gold’s weekly bars from one year ago-to-date:

    Acknowledgedly, ’twas just a week ago that we wrote “Gold’s Short Trend Nearing Its End”, and indeed as now noted, how close price came to the 2763 parabolic hurdle.  But as we therein duly penned:  “…until the present Short trend actually confirms having flipped to Long, Short remains Short…”  And whilst Gold actually has mildly risen through most of this Short trend, those rightmost red dots above have basically been a slanting roof over price.  However:  the good news for this ensuing week is the nearby opportunity for Gold’s trend to finally flip from Short to Long per the following graphic.  Depicted are Gold’s 60-minute (one-hour) candles for the entirety of this past week.  Note the two green horizontal lines:  the upper one is the 2763 level Gold needed to attain to flip the trend … again, price got close but no cigar; but the lower green line is the new 2759 level necessary to achieve the flip in this ensuing week.  And given Gold’s range statistics in the black box, 2759 is well within reach:

    “But you just repeated ‘Short remains Short’ and that does look like a double-top, huh mmb?” 

    Squire ever so enjoys brandishing his technical chapeau at times, and you can see in the above chart his “double-top” observance which oft sends markets lower.  To be sure, were Gold to have a “straight down” week, the Short trend remains in place.  But being just 19 points from the Longside threshold as the week unfolds — given an expected weekly trading range of 87 points — the mere ebb and flow of dough “ought be” enough for Gold to trade above 2759 within a week’s time.  Moreover should that occur, yet Gold then go on to record a down week, the trend would nonetheless already have flipped to Long.  But until that confirmingly takes place, we shan’t rule out further downside toward (as we’ve written) the upper 2400s … yet hardly shall we root for such.

    Now as we work toward addressing the Economic Barometer, let’s briefly assess inflation, which if indeed perking up can initially retard Gold’s upward path.  And this past week, the FinMedia hysteria was palpable:  on the heels of Tuesday’s leading read of December wholesale inflation (Producer Price Index) — the pace of which encouragingly slowed — Dow Jones Newswires looked toward Wednesday’s retail read (Consumer Price Index) with “Stock Investors brace for possibly the ‘most important inflation reading in recent memory'” in quoting an SWBC analyst.  Then upon the retail release, Bloomy followed up with “Wall Street Sees Best CPI Day Since October 2023”.  Wrong.  (Do they no longer employ editors at Bloomy?)  December’s +0.4% CPI pace was the most since that for last March; or assuming neither you eat nor drive, the “core” pace of +0.2% — whilst off a pip from November’s +0.3% read — matched that of both May’s and July’s paces.  But as alluded to a week ago, this is what you get when human headlines are replaced with those generated by “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”).

    Fortunately — assuming you do your own math and analysis — you don’t make investment/trading decisions from FinMedia fodder.  Still, with respect to inflation, we’re nearly two weeks away from December’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures readings, which due 31 January come two days after the next Policy Statement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee … (but does the Bureau of Economic Analysis tip them off?  Just a thought…)

    As to thinking on the Econ Baro, the past week’s robust stream of 18 incoming metrics were on balance positive.  Notable improvements were recorded for January’s Philly Fed Index along with December’s Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization:  all four of those metrics posted period-over-period growth, were revised higher from their prior readings, and beat their respective consensii.

    Still, growth in Retail Sales slowed.  Also, Initial Jobless Claims increased, were worse than consensus, and the prior week’s number was revised higher, (perhaps a function of folks first finishing New Year’s partying before searching for a job to pay for the credit card’s having financed it all).  But net-net, the Baro got a boost, which in turn likely leaves the Fed to sit on its hands rather than see its FundsRate come 29 January further loosed:

    Truly getting a boost even within its weekly parabolic Short trend is Gold as we turn to the two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for the yellow metal on the left and white metal on the right.  ‘Tis important to note that Gold’s baby blue dots of trend consistency have just risen above their key +80% axis:  upon their inevitably dropping beneath same, one must then be wary for lower price levels; but hopefully by then the parabolic trend shall already have flipped to Long toward limiting any substantive downside demise.  Silver’s like recent rally has been less robust than that for Gold:  thus came the past week’s rise in the Gold/Silver ratio from 86.8x to 88.3x; again with the century-to-date average ratio being 68.7x, Sister Silver remains cheap!

    And for the precious metals’ 10-day Market Profiles, here we’ve those for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  Obviously with Gold having had the better rally of late, we find present price (2740) higher up in its Profile than is that for Silver (31.05):

    As to Gold’s price stack, here ’tis:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3817
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2802 (30 October 2024)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2799 (30 October 2024)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  2759
    2025’s High:  2759 (17 January)
    10-Session directional range:  up to 2759 (from 2627) = +132 points or +5.0%
    Trading Resistance    :  notable nearby Profile nodes 2748 / 2755
    Gold Currently:  2740, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  34 points)
    Trading Support:  2739 / 2725 / 2718 / 2705 / 2686 / 2682
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2697
    2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2371 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    And so to close with another FinMedia alert so eloquently put, again courtesy of DJNw, this from last Tuesday:  “The 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5% again.  Why stock investors are freaking out”.  ‘Course the inference there goes back to the two years prior to the FinCrisis.  Indeed for seven of the 16 months spanning from April 2006 into July 2007, the 10-year yield reached above 5%, albeit the S&P 500 rose right through that period (+20% from 1295 to as high as 1556).  Then it all went wrong — not because of a 5% yield — but rather due to lack (understatement) of lending standards.

    Still, many modern-day stock investors don’t know what ’tis to truly be “freaking out”.  They’ve yet to experience the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash, given the current “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (now 46.6x) eventually reverting to its 68-year evolving mean; (for those of you scoring at home, that suggests a -50% S&P correction).  Too, there’s the even scarier “Look Ma! No Money!” crash, given the current $52.9T S&P 500 market capitalization being supported by a liquid StateSide money supply [“M2”] of “only” $21.7T; (for you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means there’s more than twice as much money invested in the stock market than readily exists).

    So fire up a stogie and be prepared to follow your monetary star…

     …such that you’re not spared a Gold bar and cigar!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 791 – (11 January 2025) – “Gold’s Short Trend Nearing Its End”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 791st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 11 January 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Short Trend Nearing Its End“

    Whenever Gold is technically in a “Short trend” — yet price doesn’t substantively “go Down” — we say ’tis a “beautiful thAng”.  Indeed, Gold’s ongoing Short trend just recorded its ninth consecutive week per the rightmost red parabolic dots as seen here: 

    More to the point, Gold settled this past week yesterday (Friday) at 2717:  that is +25 points above the current Short trend’s confirmation for initial entry back at the open on 11 November, the price then 2692; (in other words again for you WestPalmBeachers, in this case down has been up).

    Further, Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 87 points.  So for those of you scoring at home, given Gold’s current 2717 price, the graphic’s flip-to-Long level of 2763 (+46 points from here) is well “within range” such that in a week’s time this Short trend can have reached its end.  And once that occurs — be it in one or possibly more weeks —  Gold’s 2025 drive to 3000 shall come alive.  Then in turn, our year’s forecast high for 3262 is that for which to strive.

    ‘Course as you seasoned traders understand all too well, going contra-trend (oft to referred as “jumping the gun”) can lead to one’s own end.  For until the present Short trend actually confirms having flipped to Long, Short remains Short.  And whilst we regularly quip that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”, should December’s inflation data pop in this ensuing week’s economic reports, Gold likely reverts lower, again as we’ve mused with the upper 2400s reasonably in the balance.  (Recall a week ago in forecasting the 3262 high for this year our method as well measured a year’s low ’round 2507).

    All that said, Gold fundamentally is in a “Long trend” as clearly depicted in the opening Scoreboard’s righthand panel, price seemingly straining upward toward the StateSide Money Supply’s (“M2”) green line.  Specifically today at 2717, Gold is priced at 71% of its 3818 Dollar debasement valuation, even as rightly adjusted for the increase in the supply of the yellow metal itself.

    And let us not overlook the white metal.  Silver settled the week at 31.30.  And as noted at the foot of the above graphic, the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.8x.  The ratio’s century-to-date average is 68.7x:  so priced to that average today puts Silver +26% higher at 39.58.  Moreover, were Gold today priced at its debasement valuation level of 3818 with the Gold/Silver ratio at that 68.7x average, Silver’s price equivalent is +78% higher at 55.60.  Reprise:  Do not forget the Silver!

    “But mmb, with down being up, what is one to do?  Just sit and wait for higher Gold?” 

    A super “tee-up” question there, Squire.  Buying Gold, holding Gold and just putting it securely away is the quintessential conservative play.  But if “trade one must”, let’s share with you a little internal thrust.

    Should you regularly engage the website, you are aware of its “Market Rhythms” page which, when conversing with folks, we sometimes refer to as “The Goldmine”, albeit ’tis 100% based on what’s already happened.  (No one in this business ever “knows” what’s going to happen).  But to Squire’s question, one can peruse the Market Rhythms page to see what technical studies of late have been — in hindsight — attractive.  And on the list amongst 11 studies currently listed for Gold is its one-hour Price Oscillator; (assuming you have an exchange-subscribed data broadcasting system and/or graphics trading platform, you can display this technical study).

    Now for the purposes of today’s missive, we’ve simplified its recent results.  Since 05 December (15:00 GMT) there have been 10 pure swing signals alternating ’round and ’round from Short-to-Long-to-Short-etc, the current signal being Long since last Tuesday at 06:00 GMT.  Below, the green line depicts in hindsight the study’s cumulative profit/loss were one to have purely swung electronically with Globex on one Gold COMEX February 2025 futures contract.  ‘Tis not bad, however as therein stated it shan’t last:  market dynamics — indeed the ebb, flow and timing thereto — are constantly shifting.  So trader beware, but of late ’tis there:

    “Still, mmb, that looks pretty amazing!”

    Which, dear Squire, is why ’tis said some 90% of futures traders lose it all.  For once they think they’ve “figured it out”, it stops working.  Or to quote George Peppard consoling Ralph Manza:  “It’s a rough game for amateurs” –[“Detour to Nowhere”, Universal, ’72].  For in due course, the performance in the above graphic will stop working:  ’tis merely about “The When”.  The Market Rhythms page is thus updated daily because those studies currently listed inevitably turn to failure, the list repopulating to present what’s been working best.

    As to currently assess the Economic Barometer, ’tis neither failure nor feast:  rather, ’tis flat.  Cue the crowd:  “How flat is it?”  The range of the Econ Baro across the past 10 S&P 500 trading days is the flattest recorded since that ending 08 May 2019.  Still this time ’round, since Boxing Day the Baro has taken in 18 metrics for which period-over-period nine improved … meaning nine did not do so.  We thus present the El Phlato Baro:

    And having earlier alluded to next week’s December inflation data, the month’s Non-Farm Payrolls net creation of 256,000 — the best since last March’s 315,000 and well above the 12-month average of 202,000 — certainly underscores the Federal Open Market Committee’s resolve not to cut The Bank’s FundsRate come the 29 January Policy Statement.  And obviously the stock market didn’t like the comparatively “robust” employment news one bit as this “good is bad” Investing Age of Stoopid rolls along.

    Again as herein detailed a week ago, the Dollar Index continues to get the bid, trading yesterday to as high as 109.485, such level not seen since 10 November 2022.  The Dollar bulls sense the inflation genie is not yet fully back in the bottle to the Fed’s liking, albeit we’ll see this Tuesday/Wednesday that which the Bureau of Labor Statistics has concocted for December:  consensus at this writing suggests a slightly cooler inflation read.  Should that be the case, then we’d expect Gold to finally end its weekly parabolic Short trend.

    And as we turn to Gold’s two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, the picture appears fairly upside constructive for price otherwise still being in a “Short trend”.  Note the baby blue dots of trend consistency:  they are poised come Monday to climb above the 0% axis meaning the 21-day linear regression trend shall have rotated from negative to positive.  Meanwhile, the Profile’s big belly of support starts ’round 2673:

    The like graphic for Silver continues to be an almost identical twin to that for Gold.  As her “Baby Blues” (at left) work their ascent, that regression trend also looks ready to rotate to positive, whilst the Profile (at right) depicts key underlying supporters at 30.70 and 30.00.  Let’s go Sister Silver!

    Thus as we wait and see if this ensuing week ends Gold’s Short-side spree, let’s wrap for today with a wee FinMedia folly.

    In taking coffee here with a fabulously fine friend (who indeed is a highly-influential member of truthful media), we bemoaned the issue of the modern-day FinMedia becoming essentially less and less useful, at least from our personal perspective.  Our friend pointed to AI garnering more control of what is put upon FinMedia website home pages as “news”.  And quite obviously “Assembled Inaccuracy” begets same.  To wit this headline from Dow Jones Newswires the evening prior to Friday’s release of December’s job data:  “Investors on edge as Friday’s jobs report could make or break stock-market rally.”

    Query:  ” What ‘Rally’ “?  Any of you see a “Rally”?  At least judging by the S&P 500, such “Rally” faltered five weeks ago (06 December) from which the Index on balance has fallen.  Perplexed as can be, we straightaway went to our own “live” on-screen visual of the S&P 500 futures from one month ago-to-date and captured its image as follows, some six hours prior to the release of the jobs data.  No “Rally” there by that grey trendline:

    “Well, it depends from how far back you measure, mmb…”

    True enough, Squire.  But today’s “info flow” seems so short-attention-spanned that to go back a month is ancient history.  Of course the S&P increased +23% in 2024, bettered (amongst our BEGOS Markets) only by Gold’s +27% gain.

    But to our point, especially with respect to the above example:  we oft quip about the modern-day analysts/FinMedia cabal as being math-deficient; now we’re concerned over their becoming work-deficient.  As we’ve noted over recent years, were Grandpa Hugh in charge today (as he was back in the day), he’d fire the lot of ’em.

    This underscores — especially with respect to today’s investing and trading — the critical importance of  doing the math and attendant work yourself … else be left on the shelf.  We turned off FinTV 20 years ago and are better off for having so done.

    It also underscores the importance of staying with Gold … and Silver as bold!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 790 – (04 January 2025) – “Our Gold High for ’25”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 790th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 04 January 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Our Gold High for ’25“

    A little cheer to start the new year:  “We’re Number One!”

     

    Yes, across the 2024 BEGOS Markets’ spectrum, the year’s best performer was Gold’s +27.4% increase.  ‘Course, for the math-challenged FinMedia, all the talk has instead been over the S&P 500’s +23.3% gain.  ‘Tis the quintessential example of “Money talks, Wealth whispers”.  (Got Gold?)

    On to 2025. And as ’tis been absolutely eons since we’ve had a pop quiz in The Gold Update, let’s begin the year with one. Ready?

    • What was the last year wherein Gold netted a yearly gain for a third consecutive time?

    If (without looking it up) you answered “2012” you’ve earned a Gold Star.

    Moreover, through this century-to-date’s 24 completed years, Gold netted yearly gains 12 consecutive times from 2001 through 2012.

    Since then however, such streak has succumbed to becoming “herky-jerky” (technical term).  Following those 12 consecutive up years, Gold then netted:

    • Three consecutive yearly losses from 2013 through 2015;
    • Two gains for 2016 and 2017;
    • A loss in 2018;
    • Two gains for 2019 and 2020;
    • Two losses in 2021 and 2022;
    • Two gains for 2023 and 2024.

    Thus if such “herky-jerky” pattern of these past 12 years continues, Gold shall suffer a net loss for this year 2025 … but we don’t think so.  Rather, for the first time since 2012, we look to Gold’s recording a third consecutive net yearly gain.

    Despite the FinMedia’s disinclination to highlight Gold, from our purview it continues to quietly be gaining a wee degree of (pardon the yucky woke word) “awareness”.  To the extent that Gold ownership is increasing is a reflection of its price having risen, certainly so across the past two years.

    Still, trying to estimate the percentage of Gold owned by various entities yields quite a large standard deviation.  Pro-Gold bugs push that a mere 0.5% of individuals carry exposure to the yellow metal; AI (“Assembled Inaccuracy”) puts portfolio exposure up toward 10%; and (hat-tip The World Gold Council) private individuals own more Gold than do governments and banks combined.

    Regardless — and with specificity to the debasement of currency as the ultimate driver of valuation — Gold’s price trend clearly is up.

    “So let’s get to it, mmb:  what’s Gold’s high gonna be for this year?” 

    First, Squire, as acknowledged above, Gold could put in a down year.  Should StateSide inflation — which as you regular readers know — remain above the Federal Reserve’s +2% target, interest rate decreases then morph back into increases.  In turn, the Dollar becomes more attractive still, and both the horrifically overvalued S&P 500 and Gold (at least initially) descend.  Naturally, inflation inevitably works back into Gold’s favour.  But such negative scenario is quite real — one might even say “anticipated” amongst the currency bunch — given the Dollar’s increase throughout Q4 of last year.  Indeed for 2024 per our the BEGOS Markets’ Standings, the Dollar Index netted an annual gain of +7.1% … but Gold (which as you know plays no currency favourites) went up anyway.

    Still, at the end of the day, we expect Gold’s positives to will out, and certainly so the creation of more dough.  To repeat that herein penned just a week ago:  “And the month’s Main Event commences 14 January upon U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet ‘Old Yeller’ Yellen begging for dough upon which to draw to pay obligations on the nation’s debt.”  Whoopsie.

    As to Gold’s high in ’25:  recall a year ago our opening missive was entitled “Gold – We Conservatively Forecast 2375 for 2024’s High“ … and such forecast turned out to indeed be “conservative”, price rather swiftly arriving at the 2375 target on 09 April en route to the current All-Time High of 2802 on 30 October.  For 2025, we’re a bit more “aggressive” especially having just acknowledged Gold could put in a down year.

    However, given our perspective that ’twill be an up year, in establishing a forecast Gold high, we employed the quantitative aspects used to present the website’s “Market Ranges” page, in this case to solve for Gold’s “expected yearly trading range”.  We like this approach as it supports maintaining prudent cash management, (the most important element of trading).

    Now obviously we don’t expect Gold to go straight up; however we do see the low coming before the high.  Recall from recent missives that Gold is currently in a weekly parabolic Short trend, which — given other negative technicals — we’ve mused price perhaps tapping the upper 2400s near-term.  And applying the “expected yearly trading range” method, the year’s low approximates that area at 2507.  Then would follow the ascent to its forecast high of …  … 3262.  ‘Tis thus basically a +30% run from low-to-high as 2025 unfolds.  For now, Gold yesterday (Friday) through the first two trading days of the year settled at 2653.  Achieving our 3262 level may seem a very long row to hoe, but with 250 trading days remaining in 2025, there’s time.

    In the meantime, let’s go to Gold’s aforementioned weekly parabolic Short trend, the rightmost red dots now eight weeks in duration.  Yet at present, the positively sloping dashed trendline is on pace to reach 3262 within the year, albeit obviously such trend can rotate to negative:

    Now it being month-end, indeed year-end plus two trading days, let’s bring up the percentage tracks of Gold and key of its equities’ brethren from one year ago-to-date.  Therein we see at best Agnico Eagle Mines  (AEM) +54%, followed by Pan American Silver (PAAS) +37%, Gold itself +29%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +22%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +18%,  Franco-Nevada (FNV) +9%, and Newmont (NEM) actually -5% given the company’s increased production costs:

    Producing a rather sideways swath since September is the Economic Barometer, even as the S&P 500 on balance manically runs up and away from it.  This past week’s light set of Econ Baro metrics included for December an improved Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index, but a drop in the month’s Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.  Too came a better November reading for Pending Home Sales, but a zero growth pace for the month’s Construction Spending.  Put it all together — and economically — ’tis “Happy Blah Year, America!”

    To which we earlier alluded, the Dollar’s been on a three-month up run.  And you know the drill:  as the Dollar is getting the substantive bid, everything else (save for Oil) is in a skid.  By the following graphic we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets with their daily bars from one month ago-to-date.  Thus with the exception of Oil, the seven other components all are sporting negative grey regression trendlines, the baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of those respective trends.  (Pssst:  are you still in the stock market?  Just askin’…)  Here’s the graphic:

    Turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, both Gold on the left and Silver on the right have moved above their respective mid-points.  Gold’s most dominant trading support price by volume is 2630, whilst for Silver ’tis 30.00:

    And toward wrapping 2025’s first piece, here we’ve Gold’s monthly bars across the past 15 years.  Were Gold’s “Infamous Triple Top” to permanently hold, preceding stratified layers basically become obsolete.  ‘Course a -50% Gold correction would plop price back into the 1300s.

    “Oh really, mmb, c’mon man…”

    To be sure, Squire, hardly do we anticipate such demise from here.  Yet historically, Gold has suffered through some serious spills.  More recently was price’s -23% decline from August 2020 into November 2022; precedent to that was the -46% tumble from September 2011 into December 2015; and of course, too, was Gold’s -68% fall from the skies running January 1980 into June 1982.  But we shan’t lose any sleep over such, especially should 3262 be in this year’s balance:

    So there’s our Gold forecast high for ’25:  3262.  And honestly it may be “A Bridge Too Far” –[United Artists, ’77].  But again per our premise of Gold gaining a third consecutive up year and as guided by the “expected yearly trading range”, 3262 seems a reasonable target from a prudent cash management perspective.

    Indeed hardly do we have much negative concern over Gold.  Per the opening Gold Scoreboard’s valuation level of 3809, Gold is looking ever so attractively fine given inevitably price has so much more to climb.

    But when it comes to the stock market as measured by the S&P 500, we remain significantly concerned (understatement).  Remember old “Fritz” Hollings’ (D-SC) famous line from back in his time?  “There’s too much consumin‘ goin’ on out there!”  To peruse today’s FinMedia one might instead say “There’s too much euphoria goin’ on out there!”   We read (paraphrasingly) that:  “The S&P’s the place to be!” “Without AI you cannot be!” “Trump to put Bitcoin in orbital spree!”  Oh gee.

    Today finds the S&P 500’s “live” price/earnings ratio at 46.8x, at least double any historical rationale; the Index’s market cap is $52.4T for which the supportive liquid money supply is “only” $21.7T.  (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means you sell your stock, but you might not get the money).  Oh gee.

    AI seems to have given up on trying correctly quote the price of Gold; you may recall our asking AI what the price was three different times during the course of last year, the response in each attempt being wrong by $100s; today rather than quote a price, it simply says that “it is best to check a financial news website.”  Oh gee.

    Dear old Bitcoin in round numbers essentially is 90% mined and trading at $100k/coin.  Consensus is ’twill reach $250k/coin this year.  “The Trumpster” is purportedly bidding (on behalf of the insolvent USA — remember “Old Yeller” needs money by mid-month) for one million coins, i.e. $100 billion-worth, which actually is not that much money given ’tis roughly what the federal government spends per week.  But will you be offering to the nation your Bitcoin, and at what ask?  Oh gee.

    So with 3262 potentially in the year’s balance, can you imagine not being with Gold?  Oh gee!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 789 – (28 December 2024) – “Gold’s Weak Wend Toward Year-End”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 789th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 28 December 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Weak Wend Toward Year-End“

    Gold just recorded its seventh down week in the last nine, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 2637 … and yet that is higher than Gold’s settle six weeks ago at 2567 on 15 November.

    To be sure, Gold’s 21-day (one month) linear regression trend is negative, and as next shown, the red-dotted weekly parabolic trend remains Short, now seven weeks in duration.  Across the past nine weeks, Gold’s seven down bars are in red and its two up bars are in green:

    “So what you are saying mmb is that price is going down even though it is going up, right?” 

    In support of Squire, ’tis not an effect of excessive eggnog imbibement.  Rather — from a strictly quantitative aspect — we’ve merely a mathematical marvel that makes you go “hmmm…”  Yes, the parabolic trend is Short, price therein having achieved but two up weeks.  And yet Gold seems more hesitant rather than in decline.  Still, the climb from the present 2637 level to eclipse the ensuing week’s “flip-to-Long” level at 2772 is +135 points.  Given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 85 points, look for this trend to likely remain Short through New Year, barring any buying extravaganza.

    Too, as noted in recent missives, Gold’s weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) continues to negatively expand as next displayed.  Again, through having measured prior MACD declines, ‘twouldn’t be untoward to see Gold tap the upper 2400s on this run, (our preference of course being that it not so do):

    Thus is our near-term downside Gold view.  Now let’s consider the near-term upside view.  If for some unconscionable reason you missed reading yesterday’s Prescient Commentary, from that we’ve this key snippet:  “…The Market Magnets of all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate appear poised for penetration to the upside, meaning prices may get a lift into New Year…”  Let’s explain.

    “You mean for your so-called ‘WestPalmBeachers down there’, mmb?”

    ‘Twould appear Squire is already getting a giddy dose of New Year’s penetration, but to his valid point.  The “Metals Triumvirate” simply refers to Gold, Silver and Copper, each of which maintains a daily, updated page on the website.  Our proprietary “Market Magnet” measure is justifiably named as price inevitably is drawn back to its Magnet.  Specifically as a trading tool however, upon price penetrating its Magnet, further near-term price follow-through is the expected rule rather than the exception.  To wit the following graphic (a tad tight in this display, but viewable as well at the website):

    The upper panel for each market tracks its daily closing price (thin line) from three months ago-to-date; the thick line is the Magnet.  The lower panels are the oscillative difference of price less Magnet.  And what is evident in all three cases is price now poised to penetrate Magnet to the upside, suggesting a rally for the metals into New Year.  (Again, you can monitor such daily progression at the website).

    Meanwhile, struggling for further upside progression — albeit duly holding its own through autumn — is the Economic Barometer.  This past week was very muted for the Baro given the wee slate of just four incoming metrics.  Therein of note, December’s Consumer Confidence declined on the heels of November’s Durable Orders having shrunk; however, that month’s New Home Sales did increase.  So “When the Econ Baro comes bob-bob-bobbin’ along…”–[hat-tip Harry Woods, ’26], there appears little impetus for the Federal Open Market Committee’s voting to again nudge lower its Bank’s FundsRate come the 29 January Policy Statement.  Moreover as herein depicted a week ago, StateSide inflation is still running a bit hot for the Fed’s liking.  Either way, here’s the Baro:

    And from the bobbin’ Baro we return to burrowin’ Gold per the following two-panel display of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Although in this missive’s close we’ll cite Gold typically having an upside bias for the final two days into year-end, below we’ve the baby blue dots of trend consistency breaking lower.  As for the Profile, a bevy of notable support and resistance levels are labeled:

    Continuing to be the like case is that for Sister Silver, her “Baby Blues” (at left) accelerating to the downside along with more resistance than support per her Profile (at right):

    To close, we’ve two full trading days remaining for 2024. Conventional wisdom presumes “Oh this is gonna happen!” and “Oh that is gonna happen!” as year-end market hysteria unfolds.  From our purview, we don’t think much at all is “gonna happen”.

    To break it down a bit for those of you scoring at home:

    • Notwithstanding Gold’s weak wend toward year-end, century-to-date with just two trading days left in the balance, price’s median percentage change either way has been 0.7%.  The bias is to the upside, 18 of those 23 yearly finishes being higher for the two days.

    • But as to the S&P 500 with just two trading days left in the balance, its median percentage change either way has been 0.6%, the bias being to the downside as 14 of those 23 two-day finishes were lower.

    “So mmb, at Monday’s open we go Long Gold and Short the S&P for two days, eh?”

    Tempting as ’tis, Squire, the best way always to go is with prudent cash management.

    Regardless, as you know, the old saying is “As goes January so goes the year.”  And the month’s Main Event commences 14 January upon U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet “Old Yeller” Yellen begging for dough upon which to draw to pay obligations on the nation’s debt.  As was so brilliantly scripted in Paramount’s ’64 feature “Paris When It Sizzles”, the Secretary’s performance shall be that “Ultimate and inevitable moment. The final, earth-moving, studio-rent-paying, theatre-filling, popcorn-selling” plea to Congress for “extraordinary measures” to avoid default.

    ‘Course, the best anti-default asset is Gold!

    Next week we’ll have 2024’s final standings of the BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500) along with your favourite month-end graphics, (plus two trading days into 2025).  Until then:

    Happy Sizzlin’ New Year and Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 788 – (21 December 2024) – “Gold Seeks Charisma ‘Round Inflation’s Enigma”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 788th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 21 December 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Seeks Charisma ‘Round Inflation’s Enigma“

    Welcome to winter as we type literally through the soltice here at 10:21 CET.  And let’s start with a “Thumbs Up!” to one Elizabeth Morgan Hammack, graduate of THE Leland Stanford Junior University, today President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and who — as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee — had the “cojones” to not go in favour of last Wednesday’s -25bps reduction for the FedFundsRate to its new 4.25%-4.50% Target Range.

    “So are you taking credit for her having read last week’s Gold Update, mmb?” 

    Heavens no, dear Squire.  Rather, we’re just favourably impressed that — instead of being FinMedia-led as seems is the Fed — Ms. Hammock can do math sufficiently such as to realize inflation has been going the wrong way as precisely depicted in our prior missive.  Brava Beth!

    Yet such credit due, suddenly yesterday (Friday) the inflation situation completely whirled ’round down!  November’s so-called “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge — the mouthful entitled Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices Index — came in at a wee +0.1% at both the headline and core paces.  That materially differs from the Consumer Price Index’s readings of +0.3% (headline and core) and the Producer Price Index’s respective +0.4% and +0.2% readings.  ‘Course, whilst both the CPI and PPI are calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PCE is figured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Thus by the BLS gauge, inflation is increasing, whereas by the BEA, inflation is decreasing.  Hence our title including “Inflation’s Enigma” as trust in the overall picture is a bit of a stigma.  Powell & Co. may be pleased over November’s PCE, but the averages clearly state inflation is higher as in the table we see:

    In turn challenged by it all, Gold is doing its darnedest to seek some charisma.  Despite price’s rampant volatility, Gold settled the week at 2641, “net net” again being little changed as we’d seen the week prior.  Two weeks ago, Gold traced 112 points for a net change of only +11; now this past week, Gold traced 87 points for a net change of only -25.  Thus Gold’s net two-week change is but -14 points. Reprise Chris Isaak’s tune from back in ’95: “Goin’ Nowhere“

    That warbled, Gold has wobbled on balance a bit lower within the context of its ongoing parabolic Short trend per the weekly bars as next shown from a year ago-to-date.  Indeed, this past week’s low — 2597 — was the lowest level traded since 2569 back on 18 November.  Further upon this Short parabolic trend’s commencement, you may recall our penned suggestion of “…Gold revisiting the upper 2400s on this run…” given the weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) also then having crossed to negative, which since has continued to deteriorate.  Rather anti-charismatic, that.  To the bars and rightmost red-dotted Short trend, now six weeks in duration:

    Yet both Gold and the S&P 500 celebrated yesterday’s release of the benign PCE:  intraday low-to-high Gold gained +1.9% and the S&P +2.6% as the increasingly inflationary aspects of the CPI and PPI were swiftly forgotten.

    ‘Course, the S&P 500 put in one of the wildest week’s points-wise in its 67-year history:  Wednesday’s net S&P loss of -178 points ranks fifth worst since the Index’s inception in March 1957; (on a percentage basis, the day’s -2.9% loss ranks 132nd-worst since at least as far back as 1980).  Notwithstanding Friday’s PCE-induced rally, Wednesday was a torrid reminder of just how fragile the stock market has become;  Moreover, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 settled the week at 46.5x.  But until COVID’s “bonus” $7T finds its way to better-returning investments, (i.e. short-term U.S. debt currently yielding more than triple that of the S&P), the Great Game of Chicken continues per this image from the “Marked-to-Market Everyone’s a Millionaire Dept.”

    Hardly “chicken” of late has been the Economic Barometer, which (along with the increasing CPI and PPI) does justify the Fed to at least “pause” rate reductions come 29 January’s Policy Statement from the Open Market Committee.  And as you regular website readers know, we emphasize the leading characteristics of our analytics.  Two of note from this past week were in the daily Prescient Commentary.  From Tuesday:  “…the S&P … is so overcooked to this point both fundamentally and technically that some degree of downside hoovering awaits; perhaps ’twill be a ‘sell the priced-in’ Fed announcement tomorrow”.  Bingo.  From Thursday: “…Leading (i.e. ‘lagging’) indicators … are supposed to be mildly negative, but an ‘unch’ or mildly positive read wouldn’t surprise us given the Baro’s recent resilience.”  Bingo.

    ‘Tisn’t magic; rather ’tis merely doing the math.  And the Baro’s incoming metrics for November have been sufficiently buoyant for a gain in the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators of +0.3%; but instead, the “expert consensii” were looking for a loss of -0.1%.  “How’s that Ivy League education workin’ out for ya?”  

    In moving to the graphic, of the past week’s 20 incoming metrics, there were notable improvements in Retail Sales,  Existing Home Sales and Building Permits.  Too, Personal Spending increased, albeit its underlying Income slowed.  As well on Friday, December’s Philly Fed Index boffed the Baro a bit, but its overall stance has been fairly firm since Late summer:

    Meanwhile, precious metals’ prices across the past three months have been skiing the bumps as below depicted for Gold on the left with Silver on the right. And as to their respective trend’s consistency, the “Baby Blues” are tracking nearly identically, meaning of course that Sister Silver —  rather than adorned in her industrial metal jacket (as when aligned with Cousin Copper) — is instead sporting her white-on-white precious metal pinstripes.  Gettin’ some air there, baby!

    Too, because of their downhill runs, prices at present are quite low within the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (at left) and for Silver (at right).  Notable high volume support and resistance prices are as labeled:

    Thus as we glide into winter and the first of two back-to-back abbreviated trading weeks, let’s assess the state of The Stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3788
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2802 (30 October 2024)
    2024’s High:  2802 (30 October 2024)
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2799 (30 October 2024)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  2777
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2681
    Trading Resistance:  notable nearby Profile nodes 2653 / 2670 / 2679 / 2690
    Gold Currently:  2641, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  44 points)
    Trading Support:  2634 / 2620 / 2608
    10-Session directional range:  down to 2599 (from 2761) = -162 points or -5.9%
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2329 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    In sum, Gold whilst seeking some charisma at least technically still looks to falter a bit; but fundamentally as the late great Richard Russell would remind us, there’s never a bad time to buy it.  This gem to wit, courtesy of The Royal Mint:

    Indeed, Merry Everything to Everybody Everywhere and don’t forget the Gift of Gold!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 787 – (14 December 2024) – “Gold Does the Spike n’ Sink”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 787th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 14 December 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Does the Spike n’ Sink“

    Gold’s net change for this past week was a wee +0.4%; yet ’twas hardly mute en route.  Prior to settling yesterday (Friday) at 2666, price was boffed about by another geo-political “spike n’ sink”, further impinged by November’s StateSide inflationary data.  Here ’tis:

    Briefly as to the geo-political “spike n’ sink” — and you regular readers well know this — when Gold “spikes” on geo-political nervousness as was the case this past week over Syria — price zooms upwards.  Then swiftly it “sinks” as such jitters fall from the headlines and short-term memories move on to the next event.

    But when it comes to inflation — even as the FinMedia and investing community couch it as “benign” — you cannot fool the Dollar, nor the Bond, nor Gold.  For per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation at both the retail and wholesale level is increasing, indeed moving further up and away from the Federal Reserve’s desired target of +2.0%.  Here’s what we have thus far for November:

    Obviously to complete the above table, we await November’s “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices Index due next Friday, 20 December, which conveniently for the central bank is two days after its Open Market Committee’s 18 December Policy Statement.  Regardless, what does our table thus far depict? 

    At its foot we see the average 12-month summation of the elements is +2.8%; through October ’twas +2.6%… Whoops!  Moreover, the November annualized average is +3.6%; that for October was +3.0%… Whoops!  Time to pick up the telephone and call the Fed:  “Hey Jay!  We’re goin’ the wrong way!” 

    And yet, they’ll likely lop another 25bps off the Funds Rate come Wednesday, as absent of math, the modern-day Fed apparently acts on optics.  “A cut is expected?  A cut we shall do!”  And given rate cuts effectively increase the money supply through the Fed window, more Dollars distributed into the monetary system (barring economic efficiency) lead to more inflation.  For more are worth less; the “wrong way”, indeed. 

    However, to read the also math-challenged FinMedia, increasing inflation is not their take.  Hat-tip Bloomy, which in response to rising retail inflation (the Consumer Price Index) ran on Wednesday with “Stocks Rise After CPI Gives Fed Green Light to Cut”.  Really?  The CPI quickened its October pace of +0.2% to +0.3% for November … which annualized as noted is +3.6% … which further distances itself from the Fed’s +2.0% target.  That’s a green light to cut? 

    But wait, there’s more:  into Wednesday evening Bloomy embellished its response by adding “US Inflation in Line With Forecasts Solidifies Bets on Fed Cuts”.  Really?  We can only guess that —  again mathematics aside — merely meeting forecasts is all that counts, even as inflation increases.  This is adroitly akin to contemporary stock market valuation:  the substance of earnings (or lack thereof) no longer has meaning, just as long as they “beat estimates”.  Thus Syria + CPI = Spike. 

    ‘Course come Thursday came the negative news.  Wholesale inflation (the Producer Price Index) for November recorded a +0.4% pace, the fastest across the past seven months…  Whoops!  But whilst the FinMedia rather skirted the issue, not so did the Dollar, nor the Bond nor Gold, the rationale being that perhaps the Fed shan’t cut.  In turn, the Dollar got the Bid, the Bond did the skid, and Gold hit the lid.  PPI + Rate Doubt = Sink.

    So as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost closing nub shows barely a net change from a week ago — despite the “spike n’ sink” — as the parabolic Short trend continues.  Today at 2666, Gold sits -116 points below the ensuing week’s flip-to-Long level of 2782; thus if you’re scoring at home, given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 90 points, ’tis likely the Short trend shall still be in place in a week’s time:

    Now as noted, we expect the Fed — wrongly — to cut.  ‘Tis even priced into the FedFundsFutures despite the firming of the Dollar — rightly — and attendant weakness in the Bond and Gold.  And truly for the trader, mis-valuation breeds opportunity; the trick however is to remain solvent until everyone else sees it. 

    To wit for the Casino 500, its “live” price/earnings ratio settled yesterday at a spritely 47.8x.  Fundamentally, that is an overbought danger which has become indescribable.  Technically, we’ve also these year-to-date stats:  the S&P has recorded 241 trading days; ’tis been “textbook oversold” for just 28 days, at a neutral stance for 51 days, and “textbook overbought” for 162 days, including through 42 of the last 46 days.  To be sure, we’re taught “the market is a hedge against inflation.”  We just displayed annualized inflation running at +3.6%; the S&P year-to-date is +27%.  But we get it:  all that COVID-elicited $7T is still sloshing around in the stock market.

    “Plus, it’s just in time for the Santa Claus Rally, eh mmb?” 

    So sayeth conventional wisdom, Squire.  But it doesn’t always come to pass.  There remain seven trading days until Santa’s arrival.  How has the S&P historically fared for such seven days?  We went all the way back to 1980 (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there covers the past 44 years).  And yes, there generally is an upside bias for the seven trading days to Christmas, yet:  in 13 (30%) of those years, such seven-day stint was net negative for the S&P.  Thus “buyer beware”.

    Either way, the frightening overvaluation of the S&P 500 reminds us yet again that     “marked-to-market everyone’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality nobody’s worth squat.” 

    Always worth its plot however is that of the Economic Barometer.  As many of you know, the Baro across its first 22 years essentially led the direction of the stock market as measured by the S&P 500.  But then came COVID after which such relationship ceased.  (Did we mention the S&P is overbought?)  Going inside the data of the past week’s 11 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, period-over-period saw three improve, two maintain, and six worsen, the latter leaning in favour of a Fed cut as the analytics included a significantly lower revision to Q3’s Unit Labor Costs, plus the highest level of Initial Jobless Claims across the past nine weeks.  Besides, the FinMedia have already ordered (as usual) the Fed to cut its Funds Rate:

     

    Indeed speaking of rate, that at which Gold did the “spike n’ sink” was quite quick this past week.  ‘Tis again very evident below in the left-hand panel of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date, the baby blue dots of trend consistency just Friday having kinked lower.  In the right-hand panel we’ve Gold’s 10-day Market Profile, the range of which spans 124 points; currently 2666, price sits just above its most commonly traded handle — labeled at 2664 — across the fortnight:

    And we’ve the same drill for Silver, her “Baby Blues” at left also having just kinked lower yesterday.  Then at right per her Profile, she is sitting on her last bastion of near-term support at 31.00.  Hang in there Sister Silver!

    Thus into a very busy “Fed Week” we go during which 19 metrics come due for the Econ Baro, 10 that are scheduled prior to the FOMC’s Policy Statement late Wednesday.  Since the FinMedia have assured us the Fed will cut, is that already priced into Gold?  But then again, hearsay has it the Bank come 29 January shall “pause” post-Santa Claus; so hold any applause.

    And always make sure you’ve some Gold in your claws!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 786 – (07 December 2024) – “Gold Boring; S&P Warning”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 786th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 07 December 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Boring; S&P Warning“

    First, this tease:  the last time the S&P 500 reached (by our quant-crunching) such current duration of being extremely “textbook overbought”, the mighty Index fell …(drumroll)… -26%.  More on that later.

    To Gold:  on the heels of last week’s brief missive, here we go as promised with what otherwise would normally be our “month-end “graphics-rich edition, in this case right up-to-date through yesterday, 06 December.  And as entitled “Gold Boring”, clearly for price ’twas a snoozer of a week, the -1.7% high-to-low range ranking fourth narrowest year-to-date toward our yellow metal settling yesterday (Friday) at 2655 in recording its fifth weekly loss in the last six.

    Regardless, it now being a week past November’s month-end and with just four editions of The Gold Update remaining in 2024, let’s straightaway go to our BEGOS Markets’ Standings since New Year.  And as was the case at October’s end, the precious metals remain upon the top two steps of the podium followed by the zany, earnings-lacking, non-monetarily-supported S&P 500 in third place.  Too, from the “Gold Plays No Currency Favourites Dept.”, note the Dollar Index is nearly +5% year-to-date, with Sweet Sister Silver still leading the percentages pack:

    But in turning to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the present red-dotted parabolic Short trend has completed a fourth week in duration, something that has not occurred since the 14-week run of being Short back in 2023 from that year’s weeks ending 26 May through 25 August.  And per the graphic’s lower panel, to nix a fifth week of Short trend, price need trade up through 2786, (which is just -16 points shy of Gold’s 2802 All-Time High recorded this past 30 October).  Strictly by Gold’s expected weekly trading range of 88 points, 2786 at least imminently is “out of range”.  Either way, this year-over-year image remains fabulous, the yellow metal up +30%:

    Now as would normally be our month-end wont, along with Gold’s +30% year-over-year gain, let’s next see how it compares with the performance tracks of highly visible precious metals’ equites. Thus from worst-to-first we’ve Newmont (NEM) +4%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +13%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +21%, Gold itself as noted  +30%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +41%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +45%, and topping the list Agnico Eagle Mines  (AEM) +58%.  On three (one, two, three):  “Way to go, Agnico!”

    Next we drill down into the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  And per prices’ present positioning, we can see that Silver has been fairing a bit better.  Two weeks ago, the Gold/Silver ratio was 86.6x, having since been reduced to now 84.3x, substantiated by Silver having increased across said stint by +2.0% whereas Gold has slipped -0.6%.  ‘Course, it remains that Gold relative to Dollar debasement is very cheap and in turn, relative to Gold, Silver is super cheap.  That noted, here’s the rather congested (certainly for Silver) current view:

    As to Gold more broadly, here’s our updated depiction of Gold’s layered structure across the past 15 years, the rightmost monthly bar being December’s initial week.  Our forecast high for this year — couched last New Year as “conservative” — was for a run from year-end 2023’s settle at 2072 to 2375; instead, Gold went well on to reach an All-Time High at 2802.

    “Well, you were right until it passed 2375, mmb…”

    Thanks, Squire:  we’ll take all the shameless plugs we can get, (courtesy of the “We Love It When We’re Wrong Dept.”)  Here’s the graphic.

    Now as we glide toward our opening S&P tease — indeed a true scare for the unaware — let’s next go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets during the past 21 trading days (one month) along with each component’s grey diagonal regression trendline and “Baby Blues” which depict the day-to-day consistency of trend.  Obviously the best of the bunch has been the Bond, (for which in our 20 November Prescient Commentary we penned “…The Bond’s ‘Baby Blues’ [see Market Trends] have … moved above their key -80% axis:  thus we look to still higher Bond prices near-term…”  Notably, the trend of the S&P 500, too, is on the rise, albeit therein the “Baby Blues” are faltering.  Here’s the whole gang:

    And so to the entitled “S&P Warning” we go.  As graphically follows, the S&P 500 is the red line along with the Economic Barometer from one year-ago-to-date.  Like you veteran readers and website devotees know, from its inception back in 1998 up to COVID in 2020, the Econ Baro would broadly lead the direction of the S&P.  ‘Course upon COVID and the subsequent mass printing of more money, such leading phenomenon has since ceased.  For with the +44% in additional Dollars swiftly injected into the StateSide liquid financial system came the like $7 Trillion increase to the market capitalization of the S&P 500, such that ’tis become impossible for it to go down, let alone materially despite the Baro having fallen through much of the year:

    “But mmb, you said at the beginning something about a 26% fall in the S&P…”

    So here’s the skinny, Squire.

    Going away back to the days of AvidTrader (and indeed by this measure since the year 1980), when the S&P 500 gets a bit far afield from itself — either up or down — we quantitatively couch it as mildly, moderately or extremely “textbook overbought” or “textbook oversold”.

    Through yesterday’s (Friday’s) S&P 500 settle at 6090, ’twas the eighth consecutive day of being extremely “textbook overbought”.  And across the past 45 calendar years, on a mutually-exclusive basis, such eight-day run has only occurred 14 other times.  Doesn’t sound like much right?

    But wait, there’s more:  the last time this current condition came to fruition was in November 2021 from which the S&P’s fall within one year was -26%, (inclusive of recession fears — and the Econ Baro today is significantly lower than ’twas then).  The prior occurrence came in 2019 from which the fall within one year was -25%, (inclusive of the 2020 COVID mini-crash).

    And yet the inevitable next time ’round, a like percentage drop might actually be considered small. Why?  Don’t forget:  had COVID never happened, the S&P today would at best be around 3000 and all would be as happy as clams.  Instead, today ’tis at 6000 with the honestly-calculated price/earnings ratio now 46.9x, which is double the norm, and triple what was taught as “acceptable” in B-school.  For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that means company earnings haven’t increased commensurate with stocks prices.  To wit we update this closing graphic of the S&P 500 across the past 50 years with the extrapolated regression channel had COVID never happened.  Fortunately however, earnings are no longer meaningful for stocks’ pricing:

    ‘Course, your “expert” all-in equites money manager has the appropriate protection in place, right?  (Pssst … and given the current $53T market cap of the S&P is supported by a liquid U.S. money supply of “only” $22T, broker-issued IOUs will be made available, right?)

    “Got Gold?”

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 785 – (30 November 2024) – “Gold in 60 Seconds (IV)”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 785th Edition — Cortona, Arezzo, Toscana — 30 November 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold in 60 Seconds (IV)“

    Saluti dalla Toscana!  As indicated a week ago, our missive this time ’round is a brief read, but to the point; (our usual month-end graphics content shall instead be to-date in a week’s time).

    Gold settled the abbreviated trading week yesterday (Friday) at 2674, -128 points below its All-Time High of 2802 (30 October).  But price’s points volatility is well above normal:  the average high-low weekly trading range across these past four is 132 points, such like average not seen since that ending 09 April 2020 as COVID unsettled the investing world.

    Regardless of Gold’s recent careening about, the current weekly parabolic Short trend just completed its third week.  And should price in this ensuing week not eclipse up through 2791 (i.e. +117 points above present price), such Short trend shall have completed a fourth consecutive week for the first time since that ending 25 August 2023.  Here are Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date:

     

    Also as anticipated in our prior missive, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index would be this past week’s key metric.  Such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge registered for October at +0.3%, which annualized of course is +3.6%, thus exceeding the Federal Reserve’s preference for a +2.0% pace.  And per our table for October’s inflation measures, the Core PCE’s actual 12-month summation of +2.8% too remains Fed-excessive, as does every cell in the graphic, save for the headline Producer Price Index:

    Generally, Gold responds positively to Fed benevolence.  And come the Open Market Committee’s next Policy Statement on 18 December, whilst ’tis not set in stone for a FedFunds rate cut, the conventional wisdom “assumption” shall look to another -25bp reduction.  For after all, Fed policy tends — indeed is “expected” — to trend.  And a Fed cut ought redound well for Gold, perhaps reversing the weekly parabolic trend from Short back to Long and further to a new All-Time High just in time for Christmas.

    Further, the Economic Barometer remains rather steady through recent months.  Were it instead to be rising, it might give pause for the Fed to — well — pause.  Moreover, 33 metrics still are due for the Baro prior to the next Fed meeting in two-and-a-half weeks’ time.  Alors, on verra.  Here’s the Baro:

    Thus in brief this week for Gold, our bottom line is to remain wary of price — at least technically — sporting some degree of confusion given the aforenoted volatility.  To be sure, the weekly parabolic trend is Short, and by Gold’s page at the website, the 21-day linear regression trend is negative; however both Gold’s “BEGOS Market Value” and Market Magnet appear at present non-committal as to near-term direction.  Yet to better one’s analytical perspective, by our Market Rhythms page, there are presently 11 for Gold which qualify to make that list, (as updated daily).

    ‘Course — fundamentally — priced today at 2674 versus the opening Scoreboard’s debasement valuation of 3778 reminds us that broadly:  Gold is still ever so cheap!

    Ciao!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 784 – (23 November 2024) – “Gold’s Contra-Trend Rally; S&P’s Earnings(less) Tally”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 784th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 23 November 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Contra-Trend Rally; S&P’s Earnings(less) Tally“

    Let’s begin with Gold, courtesy of the “We Love It When We’re Wrong Dept.” given price having just recorded its best week (by net points gained) in nearly 45 years!

    For following last week’s piece (“ ‘Tis No Surprise, Gold’s Current Demise “) replete with our “…suggesting Gold revisiting the upper 2400s on this run…”, Gold instead posted five consecutive up days toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 2718.  Not only was it a beautiful “thAng”, but it also lends credence to our time-honoured quip that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”.

    Still — speaking of Short — the week’s five-day rally was not sufficient to flip the fresh parabolic Short trend on Gold’s weekly bars back to Long per this next graphic.  Indeed to so do in the ensuing week, price would need eclipse the 2797 level as below shown.  ‘Course as we’ve stated of late, Gold’s prior three weekly parabolic Short trends lasted but three weeks apiece.  And as fresh as is the new Short trend, nonetheless, ‘twas a terrific week for the yellow metal.  Price’s net gain on a percentage basis of +5.9% was the best since that ending 17 March 2023 — and by the net gain of +151 points — ’twas Gold’s best week since the “Wonder Week” ending 18 January 1980 upon price gaining +195 points from 628 to 823 (+31%).  A lot of today’s financial “pros” weren’t around then (and it shows) … yet we were, (as too, for you Silver buffs,  were Nellie, Willy and Lamar Hunt … but we digress).   Here’s the year-over-year graphic:

    How wonderful to have been wrong, indeed!  And yet — until the weekly parabolic trend whirls back up to Long — we’ve entitled this past week’s fabulous rise as a “contra-trend rally”, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means Gold is rising within a broader down trend).  To wit, this next two-panel graphic is gleaned from what we refer to as our best Market Rhythms.  On the left is Gold by the day since 22 October:  notice the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) has just crossed to positive.  On the right, however, is Gold by the week since 06 June:  therein (as we first presented last week) the MACD had just crossed to (and remains) negative.

    “So which one is up, mmb?”

    Well, Squire, ultimately both!  But for the present, the ensuing week brings the Federal Reserve’s so-called favourite gauge of inflation:  Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices for October.  And the consensus there is it continues to run “hot” at an annualized pace of +3.6% which obviously surpasses the Fed’s ongoing target for +2.0%.

    Too, there’s nearly four weeks to go before the Open Market Committee’s next Policy Statement (18 December), prior to which we’ll get the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ read on November inflation at both the retail and wholesale levels.  And should those metrics not be benign, does the Fed, rather than again cut its Funds Rate, leave a lump of coal in our Christmas stocking?  That would likely be a Gold negative.

    Still, from the contra-trend conflict comes the website’s updated Market Value chart for Gold from a year ago-to-date.  When last herein viewed a week ago, price had negatively crossed beneath its smooth valuation line (borne of price movement relative to the five primary BEGOS Markets, i.e. the Bond  Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500), the “rule of thumb” there to expect further price decline.  But from the “Hold Your Horses! Dept.”, price this past week reversed course upward to positively cross back above the smooth valuation line.  Nothing like seeing broadly undervalued Gold getting the bid!  Here’s the graphic:

    “But why the sudden turnaround, mmb?”

    Squire, for all the usual “conventional wisdom” reasons, depending upon one’s media source.  “Oh there’s geo-political tension favoring safe-haven Gold!”  “Oh Bitcoin is pulling Gold higher ’cause Trump’s gonna pair ’em!”  “Oh Goldman Sachs says Gold $3,000!”  We’ll stick with the foundational truth:  currency debasement, even as nothing moves in a straight line.  To be sure, 1,132,033 December Gold contracts were purchased last week … meaning 1,132,033 were sold.

    Meanwhile, speaking of Bitcoin, its December futures contract hit an all-time high yesterday of $101,100.  Come 27 December is the contract’s expiry, which unlike Gold is settled financially rather than physically, (just in case you’re scoring at home and think you have to make delivery of Bitcoin).  “Hey Mabel!  I thought you said you stacked it up in the closet!”

    Not scoring as well at present is the Economic Barometer.  This past week brought but eight metrics into the Baro, only three of which improved period-over-period.  Notable amongst the retreaters was the lagging indicator of the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators for October.  The negative reading was, of course, warmly greeted by the S&P, which then spent the balance of Thursday and Friday moving higher, “because the Fed has to cut, ya know.”  Yeah, we know.  “Got Gold?”  Here (featuring some old “friends”) is the Econ Baro along with the S&P 500 from one year ago-to-date:

    And of course as has been our wont seemingly forever, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 remains hideously high, now 44.6x.  It stays in such silly territory because as the S&P trades higher, earnings don’t keep pace.

    Indeed, Q3 Earnings Season just concluded.  Of the S&P’s 503 entities, 447 reported within the seven-week stint.  64% of the bottom lines bettered themselves over Q3 of a year ago … which means 36% did not … which makes us wonder why they’re even in the world’s wealthiest index … which brings us to the following graphic.

    It covers the last 30 quarterly Earnings Season for the S&P.  The violet line is the percentage of companies beating the broker’s marketing tool known as “estimates“.  The green line is the percentage of companies that actually made more money, (an aspect seemingly taboo for the broker to reveal).  And as for the dashed green line, ’tis the evolving average of percentage improvement from the prior year’s like quarter.  That average today is 66%.  Exclude COVID year 2020 and the average is 68% … which is why we’ve been regularly characterizing this past Earnings Season as “sub-par” … which is why the high P/E refuses to die … which is why our title includes “The S&P’s Earnings(less) Tally”, indeed.  Take heed:

    Take heed, too, over Gold’s contra-trend rally.  ‘Twould be statistically off the end of the Bell Curve for Gold to record a further consecutive weekly parabolic Short trend of just three weeks duration.  That noted, one cannot argue with the following two-panel display featuring Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linear regression trend consistency now curling upward without having quite reached down to their -80% axis is quite the bullish suggestion.  And per the Profile — atop which Gold sits — there are plenty of high-volume support prices as labeled:

    Hardly as firm as that for Gold is the like picture for Silver.  Save for last Monday, her trading week at best was rather namby-pamby, albeit her “Baby Blues” (at left) piercing up through the -80% axis typically is a “buy” signal.  And per her Profile (at right) there is labeled volume support from 31.25 down to 30.75.  Further — as we relentlessly remind — Silver remains ever so cheap relative to Gold:  the century-to-date average Gold/Silver ratio is now 68.6x, whereas the actual ratio settled the week at 86.6x.  Thus with Gold at 2718, Silver by the ratio’s average “ought be” +26% higher at 39.64 rather than her actual present price of 31.41.  Again:  do not forget Sister Silver!

    So into the StateSide Thanksgiving week we go:  11 metrics come due for the Econ Baro, including 10 packed into Monday through Wednesday, the PCE data surely to get the lion’s share of interest.

    Moreover:  we’ve this heads-up for next Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update.  We shall be once again  “in motion”, this time through the treasured beauty of Tuscany.  Thus akin to the occasional “Gold in 60 Seconds”, next week’s piece shall be quite brief.  True, ’tis is a month-end edition, normally graphics-rich.  However, we’ll like save most of those for the ensuing 07 December missive.  Either way, Gold’s reaction to next Wednesday’s PCE shall be key.

    As we thus prepare to embark for Golden Tuscany, ensure your tally totals a Golden Destiny!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 783 – (16 November 2024) – “ ‘Tis No Surprise, Gold’s Current Demise ”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 783rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 16 November 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “ ‘Tis No Surprise, Gold’s Current Demise ““

     

    For you valued regular readers of The Gold Update, price’s demise across these past three weeks ought be no surprise.  Into Halloween week, Gold vis-à-vis its near-term smooth valuation line ran better than +150 points “too high”.  Then into the StateSide election, price — as herein penned a week ago — once trumped was then dumped.

    Subsequently, Gold fully reverted south to said smooth valuation mean, and upon penetrating it to the downside, the stage was set (as is the rule of thumb) for still lower prices, our “average” anticipation level (as herein written last week) being 2555.  And indeed such price was reached this past Thursday en route to the week’s low of 2542, toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 2567.  Here’s Gold’s updated Market Values graphic from one year ago-to-date.  Therein note per the lower panel oscillator (price less valuation) whereas Gold by this near-term metric was “overvalued” back in April by +200 points, that ’tis now “undervalued” by half that distance at -100 points.  The wee “sell” label marks the crossover:

    However, with respect to Gold’s weekly parabolic trend, we’d last written:  “…there’s a very realistic chance that in a week’s time we’ll herein find such trend having flipped to Short…” which in concert with price’s reversion to the smooth valuation line has also come to pass.  Here are the updated weekly bars, the rightmost encircled red dot confirming the commencement of the new parabolic Short trend:

     

    ‘Course, the buzz within the graphic reminds us that Gold’s prior three weekly parabolic Short trends (extending as far back as September a year ago) have each been just three weeks in duration.  But given current negative technical reads — plus fundamental Federal Reserve musings that continuous rate cuts are not necessarily in stone (especially should inflation be increasing its tone) — the notion of yet another Short trend of short duration may be short-lived.

    But wait, there’s more (or contextually stated given price’s descent, “less“).  Whilst too few in the trading community at large follow deMeadville’s leading analytics, a technical study very visible to the otherwise “great unwashed” is the mouthful measure “moving average convergence divergence” (MACD), an expression of complexity tossed about over post-work martinis to impress those within ear-shot as “MAC-DEE”:  “Well ya know, the big guy and me always buy to the max using MAC-DEE!”  Oh gee.

    Regardless, MACD is one of the five key “standardized” Market Rhythms (across 405 nightly studies) we run here at deMeadville.  And by Gold’s weekly candles, the MACD — along with price’s piercing of the smooth valuation line and parabolic trend flipping to Short — also just confirmed its own negative crossover as we rightmost next see:

    So in again teeing off on Squire’s “How low is low?” query from a week ago, the above graphic depicts the amount of adversity one might expect from the present 2567 level, the “average” -75 points suggesting Gold revisiting the upper 2400s on this run.  Indeed doing the math across Gold’s price-structuring cluster from 03 May’s low of 2285 to 20 May’s high of 2454, the mid-point is 2370.  And as you seasoned techies know, cluster mid-points are oft ripe targets.

    “So mmb, you’re saying another 100 points down from here is where Gold is going?'”

    As you know, Squire, none of us ever know.  We can only put to use that which typically eventuates so as to have some degree of cash management guidance.

    “But folks should still wait to buy, eh mmb?”

    Our modus operandi (a little Latin lingo for you WestPalmBeachers down there) for buying into dips is to accept the risk (especially with respect to Gold) of getting aboard with an initial tranche, but budgeting to fully expect another buying opportunity further down.  In other words, by planning to be initially wrong, one doesn’t miss out when it all goes right.  To again reprise the resplendent Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold.”  And priced today at 2567 vis-à-vis the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement level of 3740, obtaining Gold at a -31% discount to its long-term value ought be an attractive entry point for those of you scoring at home.

    Speaking of scoring, the Dollar Index just completed its seventh consecutive weekly gain, en route reaching to as high as 106.990, a level not traded since 03 October of a year ago.  And as we approach the 15th anniversary of these weekly Saturday missives (since 21 November 2009), we’ve on occasion quipped that provenly “Gold plays no currency favourites”, albeit price typically trends contra-Dollar as has been the recent case.

    To be sure, pre-election Gold was being grabbed as a safe-haven bid, in concert too with the Fed to that point having turned somewhat benevolent.  But so-called oxymoronic “Dollar strength” has a tendency to erode all eight elements of the BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500).  In fact during these recent days wherein a glance at the screen portrays all eight components in the red, we “know” a priori that the Dollar Index is higher.  ‘Tis just the way these markets both interact and react.

    Moreover with respect to being in the red, the mighty S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) — which though this year’s first 42 weeks (to that ending 19 October) had net gains in two of every three — just recorded its third down week in the last four.  (Recall the Wall Street Journal piece pre-DotComBomb about less-experienced investors actually believing the stock market never went down?)  Yet, just how overvalued remains the S&P, even having lost -2.7% (high-to-low) in just past five trading days?  Technically, the Index through Friday is still “textbook overbought” through 23 of the past 27 trading days.  Fundamentally, the “live” price/earnings ratio is a whopping 44.4x.  But then again, portfolio theory has long-been passé:  either be a lemming, else be left behind.

    Which brings us to the Economic Barometer, itself continuing to improve. And per today’s conventional wisdom, as things get better, the S&P gets worse:  because rather than earnings-driven, the contemporary market is Fed-driven.  And as aforenoted, the Fed is now conditioning the market so as not to expect the FedFunds rate to automatically be cut time and again.

    Specific to just this past week, of the Econ Baro’s 14 incoming metrics, only four did not improve period-over-period, albeit those laggards included October slowing in both Retail Sales and Capacity Utilization.  But the month’s wholesale inflation (Producer Price Index) popped — which is a Baro positive, “the rising tide of inflation lifting all boats” — whilst rate shrinkage was reduced for both Industrial Production and September’s Business Inventories.  Too, November’s NY State Empire Index whirled ’round from -11.9 to +31.2, its largest month-over-month improvement since COVID-laced June in 2020.  Thus, up with the economy, down with the S&P:

    Further as noted, when the Buck gets the bids, “everything else” goes on the skids, including ‘natch the precious metals.  ‘Tis not the happiest of two-panel displays, but here next are the last three months-to-date of daily bars for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right, along with their respective baby blue dots of trend consistency.  Cue our lead (pun intended) conductor with “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes…“:

    Too, we’ve the precious metals’ 10-day Market Profiles, price in both cases nearly buried at the bottom of each stack for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right).  The more dominant overhead volume prices are as labeled:

    And so to wrap, let’s go with The Stack:

    The Gold Stack
    Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3740
    Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2802 (30 October 2024)
    2024’s High:  2802 (30 October 2024)
    The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  2802
    Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2799 (30 October 2024)
    10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2656
    Trading Resistance:  notable Profile nodes 2573 / 2620 / 2672 / 2696 / 2474
    Gold Currently:  2567, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
    10-Session directional range:  down to 2542 (from 2759) = -253 points or -7.9%
    Trading Support:  none notable per the Profile
    The 300-Day Moving Average:  2268 and rising
    The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
    2024’s Low:  1996 (14 February)
    The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
    The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
    The Northern Front:  1800-1750
    On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
    The Floor:  1579-1466
    Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
    The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
    Base Camp:  1377
    The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
    Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
    The Box:  1280-1240

    ‘Tis a fairly light, ensuing week for incoming Econ Baro metrics, the most attention-getting one to be the Conference Board’s compiled negative reading of October’s Leading Indicators, (which as led by the Baro we instead refer to as “Lagging”).  Too, ’tis the final week of Q3 Earnings Season, which as you know (should you follow its page and/or read the Prescient Commentary) is sub-par compared to average quarterly year-over-year improvement.  But as we’ve quite a bit quipped, earnings today are irrelevant to equities’ investing:  else the S&P 500 would be at but half its current level.

    Otherwise, notwithstanding some further near-term demise, Gold remains ever so cheap for the wise … the bottom line thus being:

    Got Gold?  Don’t be a chicken!  Get yourself some real nuggets and win!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 782 – (09 November 2024) – “Gold Trumped, Dumped”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 782nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 09 November 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold Trumped, Dumped““

    Gold’s +35.2% rally this year from 2072 to an All-Time High at 2802 might be couched catalytically as geo-political discomfort were (amongst other rationale) Vice President Harris to have defeated former President Trump, in turn installing her as the so-called “Leader of the Free World” come 20 January.

    Whilst we understand significant angst is now running through the StateSide media over the election, on this Side of the Pond one senses relief being broadcast not so much that he won, but rather that she did not win, a reminder that Europe would still look to the U.S. in dire times.

    Regardless, last Tuesday brought the reverse result, StateSide equities getting a sensational bid, and Gold — thus “Trumped” — was dumped.

    So with respect to Gold, whenever it or any major financial market reaches levels of excessive near-term — or in the case of equities long-term — overvaluation, we provably know throughout history that it “corrects”, (or in simple jargon for you WestPalmBeachers down there, it “goes down”).

    And typically, the distance back down reverts to one or more of the following:  a measured mean; a targeted cluster of previous price structure; a notable prior high or low; and/or a retracement as guided by the mathematics of one Leonardo Pisano detto il Fibonacci, (aka “Signore Golden Ratio“).

    ‘Course, in addition to the distance of adversity, the most commonly-asked question with respect to price commencing a fall is:  “When?”

    Here at deMeadville, astride our many years of quantitative crunching, we like to think we’re ahead of the game in anticipating such overdue price movements — be they up from undervalued or down from overvalued — the bane of that being we’re oft just too damn early by such assessment to be timely for today’s trading community.  ‘Tis why, as stated on our homepage:  “…deMeadville is not for the low-information, short-attention span, instant gratification crowd…”, such lost souls otherwise permeating today’s Investing Age of Stoopid.

    But in due course, quantitative analyses will out upon FinMedia dissemination of a “catalyst”, following which it all goes wrong for a spell.  (Indeed, some entities — as were WorldCom, Enron, Lehman, et alia — never recover).

    Fortunately for Gold, it always recovers and demonstrably so since President Nixon nixed the Gold Standard back in ’71.  Thus when Gold swiftly dips as it just did within a six-trading-day stint — from Halloween into the StateSide election — by careening -151 points (-5.4%), ours is not to reason why.  For, (albeit a bit ahead of the curve), we’ve nonetheless been anticipating such a drop.  And if you read these weekly missives, you too already know — at least quantitatively — why.  Cue our Market Values chart for Gold from one year ago-to-date:

     

    Through yesterday’s (Friday’s) settle at 2692, not only is Gold still above its smooth valuation line, but has now so been for 75 consecutive trading days:  that ties for the longest “above value” streak century-to-date, the longest prior being the 75 trading days during 2019 from 23 May through 09 September.  To be sure, Gold (barring a significant down day come Monday) appears poised to break that record.

    As well however, Gold having recently been (on a closing basis) as high as +166 points above that smooth valuation line, ’tis now only +31 points above it.  Thus we sense in fairly short order (no pun intended, especially as shorting Gold is a bad idea), that price shall break below the line, the rule of thumb then being to expect still lower levels.

    “Ok, you mentioned ‘distance’, mmb, so the other usual question is ‘How low is low?'”

    Squire, in reviewing downside Gold penetrations of its smooth valuation line for nearly the past five years (2019-to-date), there have been 60 such occurrences.  In then measuring how low did price go within each instance’s ensuing 63 trading days (i.e. one quarter) the average adversity is -4.0%.  ‘Course as we hasten to point out, “average” is hardly “reality”:  but from the critical standpoint of cash management, “average” keeps us from being overly surprised by downside distance.  So as a back of the napkin scribbling from here:

    • Gold presently is 2692;
    • It’s smooth valuation line is 2661;
    • Thus a -4.0% further correction below that line would bring Gold down to 2555.

    In turn, 2555 is an interesting level as ’tis near a prior minor high of 2570 (20 August) which remained in place for 15 trading days (three weeks) until 12 September.  Naturally, our preference is for Gold to instead move higher still from last Thursday’s 2650 low; but we’ll respect the leading qualities of the quant-crunching upon Gold’s inevitably slipping below its smooth valuation line, (such graphic updated daily at the website).

    Then, too, are Gold weekly bars which per this next year-over-year display we’ve exemplified as “perfection”.  However:  the current parabolic Long trend appears all but done.  Had price this past week broken just five points further down under Thursday’s 2650 low, such trend would have already flipped to Short.  Indeed, present price at 2692 is +42 points above the ensuing week’s “flip-to-Short” level of 2650:  but Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 75 points, (the daily alone being 39 points).  Thus there’s a very realistic chance that in a week’s time we’ll herein find such trend having flipped to Short — and in concert — price also having then slipped below the aforeshown smooth valuation line.  Here are the weeklies:

    The good news is — even upon Gold’s weekly parabolic trend eventually flipping from Long to Short — that the prior three such Short stints (since the week ending 29 September 2023) have each been but three weeks in duration:  that’s it.  The intervening Long trends respectively have lasted 17 weeks, 16 weeks, and the current one now 17 weeks.  Perhaps a bit too much perfection there, but as crooned Steve “The Joker” Miller back in ’73 “I get my lovin’ on the run“ and certainly for Gold, such a run ’tis been!

    As for the StateSide economy, ’tis been on balance rather run down, albeit the Economic Barometer has bounced and since stabilized from its August low.  You tell ’em there, Jay:

    ‘Course the graph’s most glaring stat is the ridiculously impossible, insanely inane “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 which by “trailing 12-months earnings” (“ttm”) settled the week at 46.5x*, the S&P en route having traded above 6000 for the first time ever.  (Ought we reword “The Investing Age of Stoopid” to that of the “Lobotomized”?  Just a thought…).
    * For fun, we also queried Assembled Inaccuracy:  it replied 30.1x by “ttm”.  To AI you go with your dough?

    As a very close friend and business colleague wrote to us this morning:  “I have no words for this market [nor] clue at this point what is going on.”  Another mate at this morning’s coffee remarked:  “It’s gonna go down 50%”.  Did we cite means reversion above?  Indeed we did.  And the reason for the P/E’s relentless rise?  An on-balance economic demise.  Thus the earnings aren’t there, but does anyone care?  As long as they beat estimates, right?  Ponzi personified.

    But to our point, let’s go outside the Econ Baro box.  Back in 2017 when then President Trump took office, our “live” P/E of the S&P was 12% above its evolving lifetime median.  Today ’tis 58% above same.  Thus mathematically, earnings growth has been severely lagging the broad rise in stock prices.  And through all these years, we remain mindful of the fact expressed by long-time analyst Michael Holland that — at the end of the day — stocks are valued by earnings.  And they will again so be.  Yet:  “When?”

    As to the on-balance economic demise, we decided to blow open the Baro a bit, something we’ve very rarely herein done.  But as the President of the United States generally is assigned responsibly over the economy, just how did the Econ Baro comparatively do during each four-year term of the past two Presidents?

    Below we’ve the four-year tracks of the Economic Barometer for President Trump (in red from Q2 2017 through Q1 2021) and for President Biden (in blue from Q2 2021 extended through Q1 2025).  Whilst we never reveal the proprietary math of the Baro, ’tis been adjusted such that both tracks begin at the same level and are identically scaled.  Certainly the two tracks are on-balance in net decline from where they began, and both (flat-lining the blue track from today) also look to end up at the same level as each other.  Et voilà, the declining “Prez Baro” and therefore the reason why underlying earnings are not keeping pace with price:

    ‘Course, we know Gold looks to keep pace as does the Dollar debase.  Quickly doing the math per the opening Gold Scoreboard, today at 2692, the yellow metal is priced -28% below its Dollar debasement value of 3739.  Still as noted, our near-term analyses look for price to ease.  And in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, you may sense similar negativity.  The baby blue dots of trend consistency are at present freely falling:  upon a blue dot eclipsing below the 0% axis, the regression trend shall have rotated from positive to negative.  Meanwhile per the Profile — key volume-dominant overhead resistors as labeled — the last nearby bastion of support is shown as 2674:

    And ever so similar is the same construct for Silver, her “Baby Blues” (at left) just about to go sub-0%, whilst price by her Profile (at right) seeks support in the nested 31.85-31.25 area.  You may also have noted earlier in the graphic of Gold’s weekly bars that the Gold/Silver ratio — which just 14 trading days ago was 78.8x — has since sprung up to now 85.7x as Silver again suffers the scourge of sinking more swiftly than Gold.  Across that brief stint, the white metal has dropped -11%.  Poor ol’ Sister Silver!

    Trumped if not dumped, in sum, we analytically expect both Gold and Silver to weather this near-term dip.  Either way, your key with them clearly is to maintain a Presidential grip!

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

    The Gold Update: No. 781 – (02 November 2024) – “Gold’s Highs; Inflation’s Rise”

    by

    The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 781st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 02 November 2024 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

    “Gold’s Highs; Inflation’s Rise”

    Gold’s Highs … Gold just recorded its 16th All-Time Weekly High within the 44 trading weeks that have completed the first 10 months of this year.  Price by Gold’s “continuous front-month contract” (at present that for December) tapped 2800 for the first time ever in reaching up to 2802 this past Wednesday.

    ‘Course — as has been our ongoing take of late — Gold whilst still long-term vastly undervalued per the above Scoreboard’s 3738 Dollar debasement level vs. yesterday’s (Friday’s) actual settle at 2746, price near-term remains overvalued per our following Market Value gauge.  Such measure assesses Gold’s typical movement relative to that of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) which at present shows the yellow metal as +96 points “high” above its smooth valuation line to which inevitably price reverses:

    Still, we maintain that Gold’s deviation from its BEGOS valuation merely underscores the run of justly due buying.  In fact, across these 16 years of producing The Gold Update, never do we recall so many folks whom we encounter on a day-to-day basis questioning us about Gold.  And given its significant undervaluation relative to currency debasement, we regularly point out that — despite Gold’s run of record highs — most broadly ’tis still cheap … as is Silver relative to Gold … the white metal indeed super cheap.  Updating the math there:  valuing Gold at 3738 and applying the century-to-date Gold/Silver evolving average ratio of 68.5x puts Silver at  54.57!  That is +67% above her present price of 32.58.  Why, even applying said average ratio vis-à-vis today’s Gold level of 2746 places Silver some +23% higher at 40.09, the actual ratio at present being 84.3x.  Thus we repeatedly reprise:  Do not forget Sweet Sister Silver!

    As for Gold itself, by the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, we can only cue Nat King Cole from back in ’51 with“Unforgettable…”:

    And yet whilst Silver by valuation significantly trails Gold, year-to-date the white metal +35.6% again tops the table of our BEGOS Markets, the yellow metal a close second +32.5%, with the inanely overvalued “Casino 500” rounding out the podium placers +20.1%.  Note therein that the Dollar Index is actually positive (given yields backing up and the Bond being in the cellar):  just a friendly reminder that Gold plays no currency favourites:

    To the precious metals’ equities we go, the graphic ever so exemplary of the adage “Live by the leverage, die by the leverage” notably with respect to Newmont (NEM).  The company’s Q3 earnings of 81¢/share more than doubled those of a year ago (36¢/share):  but the stock was taken out behind the woodshed for having missed the consensus estimate of 86¢/share.  Bummer.

    Still from the top down by their percentage tracks from a year ago-to-date we’ve Agnico Eagle Mines +83%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +59%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +57%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +42%, Gold itself +38%, Newmont (NEM) +21%, and Franco-Nevada (FNV) back in the black +10%.  The equities perhaps are not for those faint of heart, but well-suited for the long-term smart:

    Gold’s highs, indeed.  ‘Tis been thus far an amazing year.  But is inflation, dare we say stagflation,  perhaps to appear?

    Inflation’s Rise … All the broad measures of inflation data are in for the month of September.  And with respect to the so-called “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures, ’twas hailed by Dow Jones Newswires this past Thursday as follows:  “PCE inflation edges closer to Fed’s 2% target, keeping FOMC on track for next interest-rate cut.”  A bit of a stretch that, especially as we do the math.  To be sure, the headline PCE 12-month summation dropped from August’s 2.2% to 2.0%.  But then we’ve the big BUT:  that for the core PCE was maintained at +2.6%, — and moreover — the month’s annualized pace increased for the headline number from +1.2% in August to +2.4% for September.  Even worse, the core number rose from 1.2% as well to 3.6%.  Whoops! Here’s our updated table:

    So following September’s leap in core PCE inflation came October’s job creation of a scant 12,000 non-farm payrolls (vs. the consensus expectation for 123,000 after 223,000 in September), and thus our justification for having mentioned the word stagflation.  Still, mitigative to that may be the recent rising of the Economic Barometer as shown here from a year ago-to-date, the red-line S&P 500 indicative of investors keeping stocks on their plate despite some mild selling of late:

    “The S&P has been coming back down, mmb, but to call it ‘mild’?”

    Nobody tees it up better than Squire.  His observance notwithstanding, the wee rightmost drop indeed is comparatively “mild” relative to the increase in the S&P year-over-year.  And of even further import, here (employing “trailing 12-months earnings”) is the truthfully “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500, duly including these two most recent consecutive down weeks:

    At least we can offer a hat-tip to the mighty Swiss-based UBS, whose Nicolas le Roux-led strategy team just penned the bank’s expectations “…for equities to cheapen relative to bonds…”  Perhaps Nico and company have been reading The Gold Update and the website’s daily Prescient Commentary both of which have gone on ad nauseum for months about same.  Just in case you’re scoring at home, the all-risk S&P yield is presently 1.293% whilst no-risk U.S. debt across the maturity spectrum yields better than 4%.  (Which means for you WestPalmBeachers down there … no, forget it … you’re too pre-occupied in trying to figure out how to do a ballot).

    Meanwhile, it being month-end (plus one trading day), ’tis time to go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets from a month ago (last 21 trading days)-to-date, featuring their respective grey linear regression trendlines and “Baby Blues”, the dots denoting the consistency of said trends.  Focus here ought be on both the Euro and Copper, their “Baby Blues” having curled up from beneath the -80% level, the rule-of-thumb being to then anticipate higher price levels near-term:

    Too, we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  In both cases, their dominant volume price resistors are as labeled:

    And as is our wont to write, ‘twouldn’t be month end (and a day) without the stratified Gold Structure by the month from 16 years ago-to-date.  Yes, Gomer, you tell ’em:  for our Gold of late ’tis been nothing but “SHAZAAM!” mate:

    StateSide there’s an election next week.  Just as the frequency with which we’re asked about Gold these days has been inexorably on the increase, so too are we questioned:  “Who’s gonna win?”

    ‘Course, nobody knows, and sentiment varies based on one’s favoured sources of information, given that 99.999% of us have never actually met (let alone personally know) either the “current democrat” nor the “former democrat”.

    But the one point upon which all seem to agree is — regardless of who “wins” or is “declared” the next President — there shall be an ensuance of StateSide chaos both in the markets and (hopefully still) civil society.  Gold, too, could certainly get banged about a bit:  again, ’tis near-term overvalued.  But because ’tis long-term undervalued — be it on the left or on the right — Gold is far and away the best candidate to keep your future bright! 

    Cheers!

      …m…

    www.TheGoldUpdate.com
    www.deMeadville.com
    and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro