Mark

The elements of the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Our current leaders of Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are on a 10-test basis: the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics along with the 30mn Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis same for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Gold — which by Market Values remains severely near-term overbought — is returning down into the 3200s: more on that in tomorrow’s 806th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. The Econ Baro looks to April’s UofM Sentiment revision. And Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 — which had a robust start — is fading as more companies report, 150 having thus far so done.

Gold high-to-low this week has thus far dropped -239 points (-6.8%), albeit in real-time (now at 3328) ’tis still priced +307 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As for the BEGOS Markets at large, we’ve at present Gold along with the Euro and Swiss Franc above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility is light in the context of the extremely expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges): indeed that today for Gold is 90 points and for the Spoo 212 points. Amongst correlations for the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and Spoo, (the hedge thus being both Long or both Short). Yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500 was sufficient to see the “live” P/E settle all the way back up at 40.0x; futs-adj’d in real-time ’tis 39.9x. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include March’s Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales.

Gold, after having made another All-Time High yesterday at 3510, has since dropped as much as -194 points in essentially 24 hours to 3316; current price is 3333, which is below today’s Neutral Zone as are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; above same are the Bond, Copper, Oil and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time we’ve: the Bond as nearly -3 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0549 points “high”, Gold +320 points “high”, Oil -2.59 points “low” and the Spoo -237 points “low”. By Market Rhythms, the Euro appears poised for a negative 12hr MACD crossover come 12:00 CET/10:00 GMT: follow-through of the prior eight swings has been at minimum 0.012 points (i.e. $1,500/cac). The Econ Baro looks to March’s New Home Sales. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

Another day, another century mark for Gold, price having eclipsed the 3500 level: by Market Values, the yellow metal in real-time is +501 points above its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Copper, too is above today’s Neutral Zone, whereas the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having already traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver continues not to participate in Gold’s rally, the “live” Gold/Silver ratio now 106.8x. Yesterday’s -2.4% drop in the S&P 500 may be mollified by the MoneyFlow being more indicative of a -1.5% drop; the Spoo at present is -453 points below its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And Q1 Earnings Season thus for for the S&P shows 42 constituents having reported, of which 71% have bettered their like quarter of a year ago; the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.1x.

EuroSide the long weekend continues, however StateSide ’tis back to business as usual with the BEGOS Markets on the move: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate whilst below same are both the Bond and Spoo; session volatility is firmly moderate. Indeed Gold is soaring this morning, currently +61 points at 3402, even as The Gold Update continues to cite the near-term technically overbought state of the yellow metal; in real-time, price is now +408 points above its smooth valuation line; by Market Profiles, Gold’s “nearby” volume supports are 3344, 3326, and then nothing of substance until 3237. Silver is not participating to Gold’s upside extent, the Gold/Silver ratio now 103.7x. ‘Tis a fairly light week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with March’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The BEGOS Markets and many global exchanges are closed as the long weekend begins. Just a few notes: the S&P 500 now at 5283 is now -14.1% below its all-time high of 6147, and is “textbook oversold” through the past 11 trading days; the P/E however remains perilously high at 39.2x, even as Q1 Earnings Season is running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement; still, the Spoo settled its week -371 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). On the other hand, Gold — whist still fundamentally undervalued — is +352 points above its smooth valuation line and is “textbook overbought” these past five sessions. More tomorrow in our 805th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. StateSide bourses resume trading on Monday, however those for Europe not until Tuesday. Bonne Fête de Pâques à Tous!

This week’s final trading day finds at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper below the day’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has recorded yet another All-Time High, thus far today reaching up to 3372: price in real-time is currently +356 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is positive between Oil and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus being Long one and Short the other one). The Euro by its Market Profile is on its second most heavily-traded apex of the past fortnight at 1.1400, (the most heavily-traded being 1.1080). And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index and March’ Housing Starts/Permits.

Gold is significantly higher this morning in having made another All-Time High at 3312: price is +1.8% whereas that for Silver is but +0.7%, Copper weighing there -1.2%. Only the Bond and Silver are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. By Market Rhythms, our two best on a 24-test basis currently are (per usual) the non-BEGOS Yen’s both daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics; on the 10-test basis, the present best are the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s NAHB Housing Index, plus March’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with February’s Business Inventories.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light to this time, although again, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) remain extremely wide: for example, that for the Spoo today is 245 points, (and yes, brokers have been broadcasting full initial margin requirements during recent sessions). Looking at Market Trends, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold are in ascent, the other five BEGOS components in descent. The Spoo by Market Values is -295 points “low” vis-à-a its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is for eight consecutive sessions “textbook oversold”, albeit fundamentally the Index continues as vastly overvalued, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 39.8x at this instant; its yield is 1.421% vs. 4.195% annualized on the 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro awaits April’s NY State Empire Index, plus March’s Ex/Im Prices.

Gold on Friday tapped our forecast high for this year of 3262 indeed reaching a point higher to the now new All-Time High of 3263, all as detailed in The Gold Update. The abbreviated trading week at present finds both the Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value shows (in real-time) as +277 points “high”; the yellow metal’s largest volume support price is 3160 (see Market Profiles). The Dollar Index since Friday has been trading below 100, that round number having previously proven as support during the second half of last September. Oil’s cac volume these next two days is moving from May into that for June. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, albeit 13 metrics are scheduled across the next three days. And Q1 Earnings Season picks up its pace a bit as the week unfolds.

Gold has come quite near to our 3262 forecast high for this year, trading this morning up to 3242 before pulling back; our “high if an up day” for Gold today is 3257, thus 3262 is plausible were there an ensuing price push. Gold is, as is the Euro, at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is firmly moderate, the Euro notably having already traced 138% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, extreme deviations remain for the five primary BEGOS components: in real-time the Bond shows as -3^19 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.055 points above same, Gold as +260 points above same, Oil as -7.52 below same and the Spoo as -422 points below same. The Swiss Franc (1.2233) is essentially at a 14-year high. ‘Tis March wholesale inflation day for the Econ Baro via the PPI, plus the initial April Sentiment read from UofM.

Yesterday sported the fourth largest percentage low-to-high run since at least 1980 for the S&P 500: +10.8%. More on “Wacky Wednesday” in next Saturday’s 804th edition of The Gold Update. At present, only Gold is above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, again within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been blown out. We’ve gone on quite a bit in recent weeks about the Spoo being too low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Tuesday’s differential being -839 points: a substantive portion of that was reduced yesterday such that now in real-time ’tis -340 points. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus to be simultaneously Long or Short both of them). Metrics for the Econ Baro today include retail inflation for March via the CPI, and late in the session the month’s Treasury Budget.

At present, only Oil is within today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate, whilst below same are the Bond and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. By Market Rhythms our best are currently (10-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and Gold’s 2hr parabolics; again (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. At Market Trends, save for the EuroCurrencies, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other BEGOS components. Our internally-measured MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 is inconsistent across its three key timeframes: the one-week measure suggests the Index ought be +50 points higher than ’tis; the one-month measure +136 points higher; but the one-quarter measure -919 points lower: the take-away is near-term higher, then broad-term lower, which too is the near-term technical stances per by the Spoo’s Market Values, but broad-term the fundamental reality of the very high P/E (“live” now 35.0x futs-adj’d). The Econ Baro awaits February’s Wholesale Inventories. Then late in the session come the FOMC Minutes from the 18-19 March meeting.

The BEGOS Markets at present find the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Oil and the Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other three components are below same, and volatility is moderate, albeit in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have substantively widened in recent sessions: for example, a year ago today the Spoo’s EDTR was 51 points (price then 5257) whereas for today (price currently 5174) ’tis 165 points. Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency yesterday broke below the key +80% axis, making us anticipative of still lower price levels: by Market Values in real-time, Gold still is +79 points above its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is -681 points below same, even as the S&P 500 itself fundamentally remains quite overvalued give its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at 37.1x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, however as previously noted, Q1 Earnings Season has commenced, which you can follow day-by-day on that page.

Selling of equities looks to continue: adjusting the Spoo at present to Fair Value, the S&P 500 (were the StateSide market to open at this instant) would trade sub-5000 for the first time since 25 April a year ago. ‘Tis worth noting with the Spoo -4.4%, the -7% “lock limit” would apply at 4740. At present along with the Spoo below their respective Neutral Zones are both Gold and Oil; above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again firmly moderate and then some: both Silver and Copper (the latter at present back inside today’s Neutral Zone) have traced in excess of 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal still as being technically overbought near-term but fundamentally undervalued broad-term, whilst ’tis the opposite cases for the S&P 500, (technically oversold, fundamentally overvalued). The Econ Baro looks late in the session to February’s Consumer Credit. And Q1 Earnings Season gets underway.

Sister Silver suffered the worst yesterday amongst the BEGOS Markets: her -8.8% net loss was the white metal’s worst since 11 August 2020; more on the metals and markets in tomorrow’s 803rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Following yesterday’s beat-down, (save for the Bond and EuroCurrencies), we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are again the Metals Triumvirate and Oil; (the Spoo is within same); session volatility is firmly moderate, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Given yesterday’s material moves, the five primary BEGOS components are positioned (in real-time) as follows vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines (see Market Values): the Bond is just over +3 points “high”, the Euro +0.039 points “high”, Gold (despite its being sold) +170 points “high”, Oil -2.95 points “low”, and the Spoo deeply oversold by this metric at -471 points “low”; of course, for the S&P 500 itself, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) still remains up in the silly zone at 37.1x; thus there’s rightly still a long way to fall. The Econ Baro closes its weeks with March’s Payrolls.

The Spoo is presently positioned such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould immediately fall -3.0%; the last time the S&P completed a session down by at least that much was on 13 September 2022 (-4.3%). The Dollar Index is down to its lowest level (102.425) since 09 October. The Bond and EuroCurrencies are currently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Metals Triumvirate, Oil, and Spoo; session volatility is robust with five of the eight BEGOS Markets tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Silver is getting notably sold, -4.8%, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio up to 94.2x; Gold itself is -1.5% and by its Market Value is (in real-time) nonetheless +197 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are March’s ISM(Svc) Index and February’s Trade Deficit.

The Bond is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our best are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, both Silver’s 8hr Parabolics and 2hr Price Oscillator, plus Copper’s 8hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus its daily Parabolics and 15mn MACD, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Moneyflow. As anticipated, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have in real-time provisionally crossed under their +80% axis suggestive of still lower prices near-term. The Econ Baro awaits March’s ADP Employment data plus February’s Factory Orders. And 20:00 GMT brings the StateSide tariffs address.

Gold (basis June) has made yet another All-Time High at 3177, albeit price has now pulled back to presently be within today’s Neutral Zone; the only BEGOS Market outside (above) of same is the Bond, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond yesterday pierced up through its Market Magnet, whilst Copper has moved below same; Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are rolling over such that they many breach below the key +80% by mid-week, then suggestive of still lower price levels. Oil has furthered our anticipation of its rising, now up into the 71s. Q1 kicks off for the Econ Baro with March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.

The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traced 129% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s remarkable rally, yet remains wary for some material degree of pullback to unwind the near-term overbought state of price, which in (real-time) is +228 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); moreover the Update also depicts the inconsistant inflation readings, and sees significantly lower levels for the S&P 500 as the year unfolds, with the 4000s in the offing, (which from its present level is only some -10% lower). For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Chi PMI.

Both the Bond and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has achieved yet another All-Time High this morning, the June cac thus far trading up to 3124: by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +176 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, a very extreme deviation which can begin to be closed should the “Fed-favoured” inflation of PCE data not be indicative of slowing; ’twill arrive later today for the Econ Baro, and of course, more on it all in tomorrow’s 802nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As for the other primary BEGOS components’ deviations from Market Values, we show both the Bond and Oil as basically right on their valuation lines, the Euro as +0.0312 points “high” and the Spoo as -200 points “low”. As for Copper’s recent robust rally to all-time highs, by Market Trends, the red metal’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are depicting the early signs of having run out of puff. EuroSide, we move forward Sunday to summer hours.

At present we’ve Gold above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst Oil is below same, (but not before having yesterday reached up into our low 70s’ target area); volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s cac volume is moving from April into that for June, with +29 points of fresh premium (in turn inducing a “faux” new All-Time High). As anticipated, by Market Trends the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency confirmed falling below the key +80% axis: thus we look for lower price levels near-term. Silver at present is spot-on its most volume-dominant price (34.25) of the past fortnight, (see Market Profiles). And a day ahead of the “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data, today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.

As was the same case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; by Market Ranges, the red metal already has traced 125% its EDTR to an all-time high at 5.3740; overall session volatility is otherwise light. For our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the current standouts are Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily price Oscillator and 30mn MACD; on a 24-test basis, our current leaders are again the Yen’s daily price Oscillator along with its daily Parabolics, plus both the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics. We’ve previously mentioned the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below the key +80% axis; now provisionally doing the same are those for the Swiss Franc. And for the Econ Baro we await February’s Durable Orders.

At present, the only BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone is Copper; session volatility is quite light with to this point just an average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 28%. The Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency having broken below their key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels to come. The S&P 500, after having been 19 consecutive trading sessions “textbook oversold” finally unwound that condition yesterday; the +1.8% relief rally has now put the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E up to 42.9x; lurking for April/May is a MACD negative crossover on the S&P’s monthly candles, broadly suggestive of further Index lows as the year unfolds. The Econ Baro gets back into gear today with March’s Consumer Confidence and February’s New Home Sales.

The week starts to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Gold Update applauds the yellow metal’s wonderful uptrend — incorporating yet another All-Time High (3065) this past Thursday — however reiterates our wariness for price to pullback by a few hundred points, typical in the past of similar technical near-term “overvaluations”; (of course fundamentally broad-term, Gold remains well-undervalued). As anticipated, the Spoo is getting a good bid such that the S&P 500 may open nearly a full 1% higher: regardless, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.0x and the yield (1.347) less than one-third that of the annualized 3mo U.S. T-Bill (4.185%). Too continues Oil’s recent recovery: by its BEGOS Market Value, ‘twould appear price shall move up through its smooth valuation line as the week unfolds towards the anticipated low 70s. ‘Tis a again quiet day for the Econ Baro, the week’s highlight arriving Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE reading for February.

When all eight BEGOS Markets are down, we know the Dollar is up; of note across the sea of red, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency confirmed closing above their key -80% axis: this portends (by fib) a run up to at least the 5800s and potentially the 5900s should the February high-March low have a full Golden Ratio retracement; too, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook oversold” near-term. For Oil, per its “Baby Blues” and Market Magnet, as anticipated, price has moved from the 65s to now being in the 68s with the 69s-low 70s reasonably in the balance. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until Tuesday, this week’s 16 incoming having flat-lined the economic track rather than see it further weaken; more on it all in tomorrow’s 801st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

The Euro at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets remains light to this hour. Our best correlation currently amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 has (futs-adj’d) moved back above 40 (now 40.2x); the Index’s yield is 1.353% vs. the risk-free 3-month T-Bill’s 4.190%; technically the S&P is now 17 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold” despite fundamentally remaining dangerously overvalued. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with a busy schedule of incoming metrics which include March’s Philly Fed Index, February’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

At present, the Euro is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light to this time of the session. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing above their -80% axis, so as already noted yesterday with respect to its Market Magnet, we anticipate higher Oil levels near-term perhaps up into the low 70s; Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is its 2hr MACD. Elsewhere on that basis, our best currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator as well as that study for 1hr Silver; on a 24-test basis, we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus the daily Parabolics, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the “no change” FOMC Policy Statement.

A day ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro has of late gone into a skid; to the extent the Fed reacts to fresh data is doubtful such that they likely stand pat as their stance of late is “there is no race to lower rates”. For today at present we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is again light. Oil’s Market Magnet yesterday confirmed upside penetration by price such that we expect higher levels near-term, albeit there are various structural resistors from 69-73. Too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to modestly climb from having been below their-80% axis, so that, too, lends some bullishness to the picture. The 2-day S&P rally has not been kept pace with by the Moneyflow, although the Index remains now 15 days “textbook overbought”; rhus once that unwinds, we may see the next spillover. More February metrics hit the Econ Baro today, specifically Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update celebrates its 800th consecutive Saturday edition, still wary of near-term price pullback even as the weekly parabolic trend remains firmly Long; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line Gold is (in real-time) +123 points “high” (see Market Values). At Market Trends, only Oil and the Spoo are in negative linreg; specific to their cac volumes, that for Oil is moving from April into May whilst for the Spoo from March into June. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro (plus Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement); 16 metrics come due, those for today including March’s NY State Empire Index and that for NAHB Housing, plus February’s Retail Sales and January’s Business Inventories.

April Gold topped 3000 last evening; spot (currently at a 12-point discount to the futures) has not quite yet made the trip; we’ve expected more of a price pullback which still can materialize; more on it all it tomorrow’s 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from March into that for June; come Monday shall be the same for the Spoo. The FinMedia are all aghast that the S&P 500 has just “has entered a correction”, meaning we expect it to now rebound; by deMeadville’s Market Values, the “correction” began three weeks ago (21 February). The Econ Baro wraps its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

Both the Euro and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading our 10-test basis is the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis are both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. Oil looks poised to move above its Market Magnet: check the website post-close for confirmation thereto, as ‘twould suggest higher price levels near-term after being well down year-to-date; as noted yesterday, Oil is now -4.20 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s PPI.

The only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone is the Euro; session volatility is light in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are substantively up from year-end; notably that for the Spoo — which was 83 points as of 31 December — is for today 116 points, its highest reading since last 07 August. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as as nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0522 points “high”, Gold +54 points “high”, Oil -5.89 points “low” and the -476 points “low”, the S&P 500 itself now entering a 12th consecutive trading day as “textbook oversold”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s retail inflation, the CPI’s pace by consensus expected to have slowed a pip or two, albeit still above the Fed’s desired annualized rate; too, late in the session (purportedly) comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

The Euro, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The S&P’s -2.7% decline yesterday was its worst since the -2.9% fall last 18 December, (prior to which was -3.0% last 05 August); obviously the leading aspects of our deMeadville analytics have been well ahead of the selling, technically by the Spoo’s linreg having already rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and fundamentally of course by the ongoing excessive overvaluation of the S&P given lack of earnings substance; by the Spoo’s Market Profile, overhead volume resistance spans the 5748-5797 zone. All that said, the S&P is now 10 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold”. Again, ’tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro ahead of February’s retail inflation (Wednesday) and wholesale inflation (Thursday).

At present we’ve the Swiss Franc and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having traced its first “inside” week year-to-date: our near-term bias remains for lower levels, and in real-time Gold’s linreg has rotated to negative (see Market Trends), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now below their 0% axis; by Market Profiles, Gold’s key line-in-the-sand is the volume-dominant 2927 level; and by Market Values, price in real-time is +66 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro is quiet both today and tomorrow ahead of February inflation data later in the week. Too, the Spoo, Euro and Swiss Franc are due to see their cac volumes roll from March into June come week’s-end.

StateSide ’tis February’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro (and late in the session January’s Consumer Credit). At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The S&P 500 remains “textbook oversold” such that a so-called “dead cat bounce” may be warranted; however the Index’s broader technical picture is facing a negative crossover on the monthly MACD that seemingly can confirm into April; given the unsustainably high “live” P/E of 40.4x, the S&P ought deservingly suffer rough sledding at least over the near-to-medium term, especially with the short-term U.S. Treasuries yielding better than triple that of the S&P (4.197% vs. 1.343%). ‘Tis to worthy to note that from the S&P’s March 2009 low, the Index has increased by as much as 822%: thus this 7% pullback is essentially noise; indeed were it not for COVID and the monetary creation thereto, the S&P today (5739) would instead be ’round 3000.

Presently we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility for this time has calmed to mostly light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve now a positive correlation between the Euro and Gold, which makes sense give the Dollar’s demise notably this week. Copper’s +4.9% net gain yesterday was the largest since 04 November 2022: at Market Trends, Copper’s rally was sufficient to stall the otherwise falling “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. Meanwhile, that measure for the Spoo continues to drop, albeit the S&P 500 itself is now seven days “textbook oversold”; still, the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is a horribly high 43.1x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include January’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories, plus the revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper notably having traced 170% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As has oft been the case of late, we’ve no notable correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our 10-test basis cites the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Parabolics as best, whilst on a 24-test basis we show both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. The Dollar Index has thus far traded today down to its lowest level (105.280) since 11 November, Gold getting a bit of a bid in the balance, albeit to the extent ’tis geo-politically driven, we look for Gold to resume working lower (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus January’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market’s is moderate, (which you may be noting is the case ’round this time more frequently of late). Yesterday’s whirl back down in the S&P 500 ought not be too much of an eyeopener given the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend having last week rotated from positive to negative, as presently is the stance as well for both Silver and of course Oil over recent weeks; by Market Trends, those for the other five BEGOS components are positive; however Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in freefall as are those for Copper. Too for the S&P per our Moneyflow page, all three time bases (weekly, monthly, quarterly) point to still lower levels ahead for the Index. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with then 13 incoming metrics remaining from tomorrow through the week’s balance.

At present the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the anticipated fall having commenced for the yellow metal; as written: “…should the present selling become more substantive … ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone…” By Market Values, Gold — after having been better than +200 points “high” above its some valuation line — is now +56 points “high”. Notably too by that same metric, the Bond remains nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro basically in line, Oil -4.55 points “low” and the Spoo -104 points “low”. Despite the S&P 500’s +1.6% Friday rally, the Index is actually mildly “textbook oversold”; more meaningfully however, the overall weak level of earnings doesn’t support the “live” P/E of 44.0x. Q4 Earnings Season is complete with 69% of the S&P’s constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago, an above-average showing over 66% for the past eight years. The Econ Baro begins its week of 15 incoming metrics with February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.

Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices; more tomorrow in the 798th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Along with the yellow metal at present, Copper, Oil and the Swiss Franc are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. The Moneyflow of the S&P 500 continues to be weaker than the down move in the Index itself: yesterday’s change in the S&P was -1.6%, however the Money suggested a change of -3.1%: as this is a leading indicator, we look for further selling in the S&P; mind our S&P Moneyflow page. ‘Tis the final day of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro wraps its week, indeed the month, with February’s Chi PMI plus January’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate, although like yesterday ’round this time, Oil has traced but 18% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are provisionally (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis, indicative (upon confirmation) of lower prices near-term: recent missives of The Gold Update have been anticipative of a run down; looking at Market Values in real-time, Gold is +107 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. By that metric for the other four primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro as essentially in line, Oil as -6.25 points “low” and the Spoo now as -76 points “low”. The week’s selling in the S&P 500 has actually pushed it down into “textbook oversold” territory, however the Index remains dangerously high by its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 44.6x. Included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q4 GDP.