01 April 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

Gold (basis June) has made yet another All-Time High at 3177, albeit price has now pulled back to presently be within today’s Neutral Zone; the only BEGOS Market outside (above) of same is the Bond, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond yesterday pierced up through its Market Magnet, whilst Copper has moved below same; Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are rolling over such that they many breach below the key +80% by mid-week, then suggestive of still lower price levels. Oil has furthered our anticipation of its rising, now up into the 71s. Q1 kicks off for the Econ Baro with March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.

31 March 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traced 129% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s remarkable rally, yet remains wary for some material degree of pullback to unwind the near-term overbought state of price, which in (real-time) is +228 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); moreover the Update also depicts the inconsistant inflation readings, and sees significantly lower levels for the S&P 500 as the year unfolds, with the 4000s in the offing, (which from its present level is only some -10% lower). For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Chi PMI.

The Gold Update: No. 802 – (29 March 2025) – “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 802nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Aware, Stocks Beware

Well!  Can we all say “Gold 3100!”  After all, why stop at 3000?  For this past Thursday as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per Tag Team from ’93): Whoomp! There It Is!” as 3100 June Gold traded, indeed yesterday (Friday) to as high as 3124!

‘Course, from the “Nitty-Picky Dept.”, spot Gold didn’t quite get there, reaching up to only 3085, with the April contract going off the board at 3090.  Yet given our year’s Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262, (let alone the above Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement Gold valuation of 3825), ’tis merely a  matter of time for spot 3100… and beyond!

Regardless (and you knew this was coming):  all the new-found Gold euphoria aside, yes, we remain expectant for some material degree of price decline.  ‘Tis technically so by our BEGOS valuation of Gold depicting it as +173 points “high” (price then always reverting to valuation).  ‘Tis fundamentally so by inflation’s inability to efface toward a “Fed-favoured” pace.  Let’s have a look.

Technically we’ve our year ago-to-date chart of price’s daily closes vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line which assesses Gold’s movement relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500.  As shown, Gold is presently priced at 3090, but the valuation line is 2917:  thus we’ve the +173-point difference which will get closed, aided as well by the smooth line itself being on the rise:

 

Fundamentally for inflation through February, ’tis said you can “pick your poison” per our puke-green table below, wherein:

  • Should you side with The Bureau of Labor Statistics (which calculates both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index), the pace of inflation slowed for the month, the core PPI itself being deflationary;

  • If instead to go with the Fed, The Bureau of Economic Analysis‘ Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in well-ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred annualized rate of +2.0%.  

But:  to average the six annualized measures for February, ’tis magically spot-on at +2.0%  So if you’re an Open Market Committee member, query:  Who to believe?  What to do?  Lower, maintain, or raise?  (To be sure, ’tis FinMedia-verboten to even mention the phrase “Fed rate raise”).  Yet what? No cut? Cue King Crimson crooner Greg Lake from ’69: Confusion will be my epitaph…”  as here’s the table:

Either way, Gold is the momentum play … or is it?  There being but one trading day remaining in March, indeed in Q1, let’s see where the real year-to-date momentum is as the Metals Triumvirate still tops our BEGOS Markets Standings, the podium placers being the red metal (+27%), the white metal (+19%) and the yellow metal (+17%)  “Got inflation?”  Gold aware, stocks beware:  look at last place.  Here’s the whole bunch:

“But with Copper making all-time highs, isn’t that great for the economy, mmb?”

Traditionally, Squire, Copper is said to lead the economy.  ‘Course with “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) dominating the newsflow, Copper naturally gets a surge, initially as a negative given it can increase inflation’s pace, but perhaps more broadly as a positive should manufacturing materially return StateSide and elicit higher real Gross Domestic Product.  But definitely mind Copper as it does tend to lead the price of Gold, the red metal having fallen these last two days in-a-row.

As for the noted cellar-dweller in the above Standings, we’ve the S&P 500 -5% year-to-date.  You may well have read that oft-dubitable Goldman Sachs just reduced their year-end S&P target to 6200.  “Ahh, youth!”  Our sense is to replace their “6” with a “4”.  Still to their credit, that post-COVID $7T continues to slosh about … but are equities finally losing their “only game in town” status?  For those of you scoring at home:  annualized, the riskfull S&P yield is now 1.368%; the riskless three-month U.S. T-Bill’s is now 4.188%.  Even those WestPalmBeachers down there can discern which is better; (well, maybe not…)

“But, mmb, the Bipartisan Policy Center just said the ‘X-Date’ for Treasury default is July-October…”

Squire loves welcoming Wall Street to real life.  And welcome to Treasury, Scott “This we got” Bessent.

Really real life is enjoying Gold about to complete its tenth winning month of the past 13.  On a mutually-exclusive basis, 10 wins out of 13 has occurred but three other times so far this century.  And by the week from a year ago-to-date, below is our graphic of the enduring Gold streak.  Therein, just 18 weeks have been down whilst basically double that — 35 — have been up.  Here’s the Long and Short of it:

And in keeping with our month-end mode, let’s next look at leverage via the year-over-year graphic for the Golden percentage tracks of Gold & Bros.  From low-to-high, there’s Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, both Gold itself and Newmont (NEM) +41%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +52%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +86%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)+92%.  Too, a magnificent charter reader has asked we give special mention to Alamos Gold (AGI) aka “The Agnico of the Mid-Tiers” which +84% year-over-year would be tucked in just below AEM and PAAS.  “Remember the Alamos!”

Near-term for  the precious metals, these are their 10-day Market Profiles featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notable volume apices of the past fortnight are as labeled, the yellow metal (quoted by the June contract) showing support initially at 3114, then more so in the 3068-3055 zone, whilst the white metal’s key supporters are 34.75 and 34.25:

Broad-term for Gold we’ve the 16-year monthly candles across price’s structure.  Remember the old trading axiom that “Triple tops are meant to be broken”?  Oh my goodness…

Thus it again being month-end, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets for the past 21 trading days (one month) along with their grey trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend.  And yields having been a bit on the rise find the Bond’s price in recent demise, albeit gaining a safe-haven Friday bid as the S&P 500 fell from the skies.  Note, too, per the website’s Prescient Commentary a couple of weeks back when Oil was in the 65s that the “Baby Blues” were then heralding a run to the low 70s … et voilà:

So as tomorrow we slide EuroSide to summer hours, let’s close it out for this week with (yet another) shocking stat for the S&P 500.  ‘Course, you regular readers know the two “ongoing-in-perpetuity” shocks of 1) the “live” price/earnings for the S&P now at 40.2x — yes, that’s after Friday’s -2.0% fall — and 2) the current market cap of the S&P now $49.1T versus a “readily available” M2 money supply of less than half that at $21.8T(Is your brokerage preparing its IOUs?)

Here’s our next shock.  Per the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings, again the worst year-to-date loser is the S&P -5.1%.  If we regress by the day from New Year the track of the S&P’s closing price (which currently is 5581), and extrapolate such trend to year-end, the Index then first settles in the 4000s come 12 August, on track to finish the year -25% at 4386.  This varies a bit from Goldman’s 6200, but we tend to notice little things like that.

Because we don’t forget big things like this:

28 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

Both the Bond and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has achieved yet another All-Time High this morning, the June cac thus far trading up to 3124: by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +176 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, a very extreme deviation which can begin to be closed should the “Fed-favoured” inflation of PCE data not be indicative of slowing; ’twill arrive later today for the Econ Baro, and of course, more on it all in tomorrow’s 802nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As for the other primary BEGOS components’ deviations from Market Values, we show both the Bond and Oil as basically right on their valuation lines, the Euro as +0.0312 points “high” and the Spoo as -200 points “low”. As for Copper’s recent robust rally to all-time highs, by Market Trends, the red metal’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are depicting the early signs of having run out of puff. EuroSide, we move forward Sunday to summer hours.

27 March 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve Gold above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst Oil is below same, (but not before having yesterday reached up into our low 70s’ target area); volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s cac volume is moving from April into that for June, with +29 points of fresh premium (in turn inducing a “faux” new All-Time High). As anticipated, by Market Trends the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency confirmed falling below the key +80% axis: thus we look for lower price levels near-term. Silver at present is spot-on its most volume-dominant price (34.25) of the past fortnight, (see Market Profiles). And a day ahead of the “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data, today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.

26 March 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

As was the same case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; by Market Ranges, the red metal already has traced 125% its EDTR to an all-time high at 5.3740; overall session volatility is otherwise light. For our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the current standouts are Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily price Oscillator and 30mn MACD; on a 24-test basis, our current leaders are again the Yen’s daily price Oscillator along with its daily Parabolics, plus both the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics. We’ve previously mentioned the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below the key +80% axis; now provisionally doing the same are those for the Swiss Franc. And for the Econ Baro we await February’s Durable Orders.

25 March 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

At present, the only BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone is Copper; session volatility is quite light with to this point just an average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 28%. The Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency having broken below their key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels to come. The S&P 500, after having been 19 consecutive trading sessions “textbook oversold” finally unwound that condition yesterday; the +1.8% relief rally has now put the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E up to 42.9x; lurking for April/May is a MACD negative crossover on the S&P’s monthly candles, broadly suggestive of further Index lows as the year unfolds. The Econ Baro gets back into gear today with March’s Consumer Confidence and February’s New Home Sales.

24 March 2025 – 08:10 Central Euro Time

The week starts to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Gold Update applauds the yellow metal’s wonderful uptrend — incorporating yet another All-Time High (3065) this past Thursday — however reiterates our wariness for price to pullback by a few hundred points, typical in the past of similar technical near-term “overvaluations”; (of course fundamentally broad-term, Gold remains well-undervalued). As anticipated, the Spoo is getting a good bid such that the S&P 500 may open nearly a full 1% higher: regardless, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.0x and the yield (1.347) less than one-third that of the annualized 3mo U.S. T-Bill (4.185%). Too continues Oil’s recent recovery: by its BEGOS Market Value, ‘twould appear price shall move up through its smooth valuation line as the week unfolds towards the anticipated low 70s. ‘Tis a again quiet day for the Econ Baro, the week’s highlight arriving Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE reading for February.

The Gold Update: No. 801 – (22 March 2025) – “Gold’s Year of the Bid”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 801st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold’s Year of the Bid

Thus far in 2025, ’tis been the year of the Gold bid.  Folks who are clueless on Gold are abashedly asking about it.  “How much is it?”  “How do I buy it?”  “How much is in Fort Knox?” “How do I store it?” “How much is it taxed?” “How do I get it outta the UK?”

Indeed, we too query:  has our having penned 800 Gold Updates finally made the world Gold crazy?  That century-to-date — although the S&P 500 is + 329% (from 1320 to 5668) — that Gold’s growth is triple that at +1,005% (from 274 to 3028)?   ‘Tis clear that this year the Golden lightbulb has suddenly gone aglow and everybody’s excited to give Gold a bid, even wee London:

Naturally, we’re also excited.  Based on the linear regression pace at which Gold is rising so far in 2025, ‘twould reach our year’s forecast high — Golden Goal Three of 3262 — on 07 May:  that’s a mere 32 trading days from now, with then nearly eight months left in the year’s balance!

“I dunno mmb, but if it happens that fast, then what?”

Two generalizations there, Squire. “IF” the low for this year is already in place (2625 on 06 January), Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the “expected yearly trading range” equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy.  Contrarily, stagflation sets in and the Fed is stuck, perhaps even having to raise its FundsRate to slow rising costs, the Dollar then getting the bid away from Gold, which in turn travels toward such downside range in revisiting the 2700s, 2600s, 2500s.  In the meantime, next Friday (28 March) bring February’s “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

For as can be the case with markets — excitement breeds near-term excessiveness.  Through this year’s 55 trading days-to-date, Gold (as is its current case) has been “textbook overbought” for 45 of them.  We refer to it as “textbook” as ’tis visible to the trading public at large should they care to access such available mix of standardly-used technical studies, our preferred cocktail consisting of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics.

Better still (albeit far less publicly-viewed) is the website’s BEGOS Markets Value for Gold, which just completed a 52nd consecutive trading day above its smooth valuation line, price next shown as +139 points “high”:

Hardly is 52 days above that line a record (the most in the past 25 years being 75 days); however upon reaching 52 days, price then on average within the ensuing 63 trading days (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is one trading quarter) has fallen -7%.  Thus per Gold having settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 3028 — posting  en route a fresh All-Time High at 3065 — a slide within such -7% vacuum would be some -200 points from here, i.e. relatively in line with our having suggested that the road to Golden Goal Three of 3262 may well first travel through the 2700s-2600s, even to as low as 2507 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  For unlike the Nvidias or Palantirs or Gamestops or even Bitcoins of the world, Gold is not (barring a U.S. Treasury default) going to go straight up:  ’tis too globally liquid for the offers to just “vanish”.

The point is: be thee not discouraged should price pullback a few hundred points, for the ultimate Gold target as ever remains the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value which at present is 3803.  Hence as depicted in the above graphic:  “Near-term, Gold is too high … ‘Course broadly, Gold is too low!”

Either way, Gold’s year-over-year trend remains nothing short (pun!) of amazing!  To wit, Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date astride the ever-rising parabolic Long trend per the rightmost blue dots:

And therein note the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the current 90.3x level being the second-highest weekly close so far this year.  Priced to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 68.8x, Silver — rather than being 33.53 today — would instead be +31% higher at 44.00  “Got Silver?” … (a rhetorical question for our resourceful readers).

From having recently been less resourceful to flatlining this past week is the Economic Barometer.  Oh, there were incoming metrics aplenty:  16 of ’em … of which seven bettered their like reading of the prior period and nine were worse.  The week’s best winner was February’s Existing Home Sales which bettered both consensus and January’s number, such prior month also revised higher.  But the stinkers were March’s National Association of Home Builders Index taking quite a tumble (from 42 to 39), as did the month’s New York State Empire Index (from +5.7 to -20.0).

‘Course, the week’s non-event highlight was the Federal Open Markets Committee’s “sitting on its hands” Policy Statement.  But in conspicuous contrast to the sudden stumble by the Econ Baro, did you read the FOMC’s opening sentence of its Statement?  ‘Tis below embedded:

Not to be overly critical of The Fed, but might its referred “recent indicators” be from last September during which time the Baro — as you can well see — was firmly rising?  After all, you know the long-running saying that “The Fed is behind the curve.”  Perhaps esteemed voting member (and ChiFedPrez) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee could shed some light on such recent “solid pace”.  Anyway, we’ll instead stick with the actual math.

Turning to the math that makes our “Baby Blues”, they are ever-smoothly in synch with Gold’s moves, either up or down.  Such measure of regression trend consistency as below shown on the left is fairly well-paired with price across the past three months, albeit Gold has dropped for two successive days even as the dominant trend is up.  And on the right in Gold’s 10-day market Profile we see 3043 as the highest-volume handle traded these past two weeks, its role at present that of overhead resistance with notable near-term volume support at 2996:

As for poor ol’ Sister Silver, she has declined for three straight sessions, her like graphic from three months ago-to-date below left and Market Profile below right.  Therein, her dominant volume resistor is 34.35:

Gold’s Year of the Bid indeed!  We’re a bit surprised to see the yellow metal moving so swiftly toward Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Through the year’s first 12 weeks, only one has been down:  such stints of 11 up weeks in 12 have only occurred (as a mutually-exclusive basis) on five other occasions so far this century.  The average price fallout following those five instances within the ensuing three months?  -9%, which again “suggests” similar downside to the aforeshown currently streaking Market Value’s “price over valuation differential” that has historically then led to an average -7% drop.  But as we on occasion caution:  “Average is not Reality” especially given Gold’s strong bid this year.  Still as stated, we shan’t be surprised to see Gold revisit the 2700s, etc.

And in Gold’s year of the bid if such pullback must be, better it indeed be prior to our 3262 Golden Goal Three!

21 March 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

When all eight BEGOS Markets are down, we know the Dollar is up; of note across the sea of red, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency confirmed closing above their key -80% axis: this portends (by fib) a run up to at least the 5800s and potentially the 5900s should the February high-March low have a full Golden Ratio retracement; too, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook oversold” near-term. For Oil, per its “Baby Blues” and Market Magnet, as anticipated, price has moved from the 65s to now being in the 68s with the 69s-low 70s reasonably in the balance. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until Tuesday, this week’s 16 incoming having flat-lined the economic track rather than see it further weaken; more on it all in tomorrow’s 801st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

20 March 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

The Euro at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets remains light to this hour. Our best correlation currently amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 has (futs-adj’d) moved back above 40 (now 40.2x); the Index’s yield is 1.353% vs. the risk-free 3-month T-Bill’s 4.190%; technically the S&P is now 17 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold” despite fundamentally remaining dangerously overvalued. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with a busy schedule of incoming metrics which include March’s Philly Fed Index, February’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

19 March 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

At present, the Euro is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light to this time of the session. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing above their -80% axis, so as already noted yesterday with respect to its Market Magnet, we anticipate higher Oil levels near-term perhaps up into the low 70s; Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is its 2hr MACD. Elsewhere on that basis, our best currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator as well as that study for 1hr Silver; on a 24-test basis, we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus the daily Parabolics, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the “no change” FOMC Policy Statement.

18 March 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time

A day ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro has of late gone into a skid; to the extent the Fed reacts to fresh data is doubtful such that they likely stand pat as their stance of late is “there is no race to lower rates”. For today at present we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is again light. Oil’s Market Magnet yesterday confirmed upside penetration by price such that we expect higher levels near-term, albeit there are various structural resistors from 69-73. Too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to modestly climb from having been below their-80% axis, so that, too, lends some bullishness to the picture. The 2-day S&P rally has not been kept pace with by the Moneyflow, although the Index remains now 15 days “textbook overbought”; rhus once that unwinds, we may see the next spillover. More February metrics hit the Econ Baro today, specifically Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

17 March 2025 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update celebrates its 800th consecutive Saturday edition, still wary of near-term price pullback even as the weekly parabolic trend remains firmly Long; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line Gold is (in real-time) +123 points “high” (see Market Values). At Market Trends, only Oil and the Spoo are in negative linreg; specific to their cac volumes, that for Oil is moving from April into May whilst for the Spoo from March into June. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro (plus Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement); 16 metrics come due, those for today including March’s NY State Empire Index and that for NAHB Housing, plus February’s Retail Sales and January’s Business Inventories.

The Gold Update: No. 800 – (15 March 2025) – “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 800th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!

Long-time (really long-time) readers of The Gold Update know that our microphones are just about everywhere as was the case in Rome’s Curia Pompeia (a little Latin lingo there) on this day in 44 B.C.  Let’s roll the tape:

  • Soothsayer:  “Hail Caesar!”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Whaddya got, Soothie…”

  • Soothsayer:  “We who embrace Caesar, whose name is magnificent, whose presence is ever-accessible, who makes our world wonderful, we turn our hearts to thee, oh Caesar…”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Oh just get on with it, Soothie…”

  • Soothsayer:  “Oh great Caesar!  Beware the Ides of March!  For on this very day 2,068 years hence shall come the 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update!”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Soothie…  Get out!”

Following which of course out came the long knives and the rest — as ’tis said — is “histoire”.

Welcome to the 800th Gold Update, our having missed nary a Saturday throughout.  ‘Tis again a “milestone” for us, and we shan’t forget those who’ve substantively got us here, most notably the Mighty Moriarty of 321Gold, along with Goldseiten, Gold-Eagle, Kitco, Investing.com, TalkMarkets, GoldSeek and YOU: the most savvy Gold readers ’round the world.  Our truly heartfelt thanks to everyone.

Moreover, welcome to Golden Goal Two, such “milestone” level of 3000 by the April futures contract having been reached this past Thursday evening @ 20:49 GMT with spot Gold then following yesterday (Friday) morning @ 10:10 GMT.  A doubly-beautiful thAng!

Further, a hardened aspect of The Gold Update these many years is that when we’re way wrong, we so say!  In this case, we’ve of late been anticipating Gold reaching lower price levels, certainly so from the week ending 28 February wherein Gold high-to-low fell -130 points from 2974 to 2844.  Instead, 3000 was just tapped.

Indeed, whilst our Golden Goal Three for the year is still a projected a high of 3262, we’ve this reminder (from 04 January) as to Gold’s potential downside :  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates…2507…”  And should that eventuate, our sense remains it comes prior to 3262 Goo goo g’ joob” –[Lennon, ’67].

But should we remain wrong (i.e. Gold not materially decline en route), ‘twould be great, for 3262 shall then appear in hindsight as having been a modest mandate.

Either way, Gold settled yesterday at 2994 in reaching a new All-Time High of 3017, the Monday-Friday net gain both by points (+76) and percentage (+2.6%) being the best of the year’s 11 weeks-to-date, within which (as aforenoted) only one has been down.

“Which begs the question mmb, is that an 11-week record?  Congrats on 800 by the way…”

Thanks dear Squire:  we couldn’t have made it this far without you.  As for similar 11-week periods with but one (or even none) as down, on a mutually-exclusive basis ’tis happened century-to-date on seven other occasions, the prior case being within the grips of COVID from the weeks ending 29 May 2020 through 07 August 2020.  Gold for that 11-week stint posted a net gain of +18.0%.  This time ’round ’tis +13.5%.  Regardless, as to “The Now”, all looks great in GoldLand:

And by the above weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now eight weeks in duration, the “flip-to-Short” level of 2760 affording Gold 234 points of wiggle room, (albeit the blue dots are now swiftly speeding upward at a rate of +42 points per week).  Still, by the above graphic, again we say, “Gold is looking as good as it gets!”

However:  in measuring Gold by its smooth valuation line, price’s movement relative to those of the other four primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Oil / S&P 500) presently appears some +122 points “high” above that smooth grey line…

…to which price always returns, acknowledging ‘natch that the smooth line itself is in ascent.  So again, some price descent many be in near-term order.  But of broader import — per the opening Gold Scoreboard — price today at 2994 is -807 points beneath the Dollar debasement appraisal of 3801.  Or apropos of this 800th missive, let’s reprise the deserved decree from late great Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold!”  Price upon his 20 November 2015 passing was 1077:  wherever in the Gold ether he now is,  the +180% 10-year gain must be most satisfying.

But suddenly not so satisfying is the state of the StateSide economy, which by the Economic Barometer across the past two weeks has suffered a bit of a “whoopsie…” (technical term).  The marked month-over-month braking in the pace of inflation suggests a slowing of activity, although February’s “Fed-favoured” read via Personal Consumption Expenditures is still two weeks away.  But initially for the month at both the headline and core readings, the Consumer Price Index substantially slowed, whilst the Producer Price Index actually hinted at deflation, the headline number’s pace at zero and that for the core coming in negativeDoes that mean the regular stuff yer now buyin’ this month is cheaper?  Well, maybe not, as the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for March just suffered its third-worst month-over-month drop since COVID.  “Whoopsie!” indeed.  Here’s the Econ Baro:

Specific to the precious metals, ’tis been anything but “Whoopsie!” in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with those for Silver on the right.  For both markets, their respective “Baby Blues” of day-to-day trend consistency just recently breached below the 0% axes, only to then reverse back upward as the 21-day downtrends came to an end:

In next turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), the standout feature is the yellow metal depicting “A dearth of volume support” which is created when price rapidly covers a large range of points.  ‘Tis merely something of which to be aware should price suddenly skid back down to the 2924 volume-dominant support level.  As for the white metal, she sports a bit of a volume gap from her present 34.35 price down to 33.70, but with firmer support in the 33.20-32.90 zone as labeled:

Thus there we are for No. 800.  It being a “milestone” for us in tandem with Golden Goal Two of price having achieved the 3000 “milestone”, let’s go to the stack.  Therein note:  nothing is listed in the 2800s.  So swift has been Gold’s recent rise, that after having settled a total of 59 days in the 2600s and then 30 days in the 2700s, there’ve been but 11 settles in the 2800s, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  Indeed, a word to the wise is sufficient.  (What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is don’t be surprised should selling ensue).  Here’s the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3801
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
2025’s High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 3017 (from 2870) = +147 points or +5.1%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3001 (13 March 2025)
Trading Resistance:  2996
Gold Currently:  2994, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2930
Trading Support:  per the Profile, nothing substantive until 2924
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2760
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2479 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To close it out, we again (as is on occasion a Gold Update tradition) grin over further “FinMedia Freakout!”.  Our FinMedia friends pride themselves on their technical stock market expertise of which they know not just one, but two measures.  They are called “The 200-day Moving Average” and “The 10% Correction”.

In this case, ’tis the latter which came to the fore across this past Thursday’s FinMedia spectrum as a result of the S&P 500 having reached down -10% from its recent all-time high of 6148, (the Index today at 5639).  Rife was the air with panicky hysteria!  From one FinMedia page to the next, the leading heading was nearly identical:  “S&P 500 Enters Correction”.  (Note:  here at deMeadville, the correction commenced three weeks ago upon the S&P futures crossing below their own smooth valuation line as featured daily at the website, hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge).

The good news is, by the time the FinMedia typically figures this out, ’tis oft a fabulous buy signal.  Indeed prior to yesterday’s +117-point S&P rally, we internally texted it ought be bought.  Boom!  Following which came this hilarious rationale courtesy of CNBC:  “Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.”  (We’re curious as to how may hours may be the “time being”).  The Ides of March, indeed.  On verra…

That stated, we still view the S&P as treacherously overvalued en route to a down year.  But counter to that remains the question:  “Where then is COVID’s $7T ‘relief fund’ that all ended up in the stock market gonna go?”

“Which again begs the obvious question, right mmb?”

Better yet, Squire, as a statement:  How about into Gold!

14 March 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

April Gold topped 3000 last evening; spot (currently at a 12-point discount to the futures) has not quite yet made the trip; we’ve expected more of a price pullback which still can materialize; more on it all it tomorrow’s 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from March into that for June; come Monday shall be the same for the Spoo. The FinMedia are all aghast that the S&P 500 has just “has entered a correction”, meaning we expect it to now rebound; by deMeadville’s Market Values, the “correction” began three weeks ago (21 February). The Econ Baro wraps its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

13 March 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

Both the Euro and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading our 10-test basis is the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis are both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. Oil looks poised to move above its Market Magnet: check the website post-close for confirmation thereto, as ‘twould suggest higher price levels near-term after being well down year-to-date; as noted yesterday, Oil is now -4.20 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s PPI.

12 March 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

The only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone is the Euro; session volatility is light in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are substantively up from year-end; notably that for the Spoo — which was 83 points as of 31 December — is for today 116 points, its highest reading since last 07 August. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as as nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0522 points “high”, Gold +54 points “high”, Oil -5.89 points “low” and the -476 points “low”, the S&P 500 itself now entering a 12th consecutive trading day as “textbook oversold”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s retail inflation, the CPI’s pace by consensus expected to have slowed a pip or two, albeit still above the Fed’s desired annualized rate; too, late in the session (purportedly) comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

11 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

The Euro, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The S&P’s -2.7% decline yesterday was its worst since the -2.9% fall last 18 December, (prior to which was -3.0% last 05 August); obviously the leading aspects of our deMeadville analytics have been well ahead of the selling, technically by the Spoo’s linreg having already rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and fundamentally of course by the ongoing excessive overvaluation of the S&P given lack of earnings substance; by the Spoo’s Market Profile, overhead volume resistance spans the 5748-5797 zone. All that said, the S&P is now 10 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold”. Again, ’tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro ahead of February’s retail inflation (Wednesday) and wholesale inflation (Thursday).

10 March 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve the Swiss Franc and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having traced its first “inside” week year-to-date: our near-term bias remains for lower levels, and in real-time Gold’s linreg has rotated to negative (see Market Trends), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now below their 0% axis; by Market Profiles, Gold’s key line-in-the-sand is the volume-dominant 2927 level; and by Market Values, price in real-time is +66 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro is quiet both today and tomorrow ahead of February inflation data later in the week. Too, the Spoo, Euro and Swiss Franc are due to see their cac volumes roll from March into June come week’s-end.

The Gold Update: No. 799 – (08 March 2025) – “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 799th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide

Whilst we’ve still our near-term negative bent for the price of Gold, nonetheless let’s reprise this from last week’s missive:  “…one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came…”

And from the prior Friday’s White House brawl to yesterday morning’s RUS/UKR missile-drone attack, such geo-political jitters — in tandem with tariff tantrums — have kept Gold aloft, price settling the week at 2918 for a net five-day gain of +1.8% (+50 points).

Yet, ’twas a so-called “inside week” for the yellow metal, meaning Gold printed both a higher-low but lower-high than in the week prior.  ‘Tis depicted below in the left hand panel wherein the outermost green and red horizontal lines are the prior week’s range and the innermost two this past week’s range, the diagonal slants showing the difference.  Still, in spite of it all, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continued to fall, paired here with the S&P’s folderol and Silver’s attempting a grip on the ball:

“But mmb, that’s more than just S&P folderol ’cause it’s down -6% from its high!”

We’ve on occasion been queried if Squire is paid for such “teeing-up” comments.  (Rather, for the privilege of his presence on this page, he pays us).

But to the point, yes, the S&P 500 (now 5770) has lost -6% of its value from the all-time high (6147) of just 13 trading days ago (19 February).  Yet from our purview ’tis “nuthin’ but noise” given the mighty Index today is +765% above its FinCrisis low of 667 (06 March 2009) as well as +163% over the COVID low of 2192 (23 March 2020).  Thus for you WestPalmBeachers down there, the S&P’s -6% pullback is a statistical irrelevancy.  And as our regular readers know all too well, relevancy shall have returned upon the S&P’s price/earnings ratio (the “live” reading now 41.0x) having reverted to its reasonable mean in the low 20s, (which always has occurred — either up or down — since the S&P 500’s inception 68 years ago in March 1957) And in turn, the otherwise ongoing Investing Age of Stoopid shall have been eradicated.  (Nevertheless, we’ve more on the FinMedia “Panic!” toward today’s wrap).

As to Gold’s ten trading weeks year-to-date, this past one (the rightmost green bar) is the first to be characterized as “inside”.  Again, the inference as Gold continues to work off its extreme overbought condition is price having benefitted from geo-political and tariff trepidation; hence this past week’s buoyancy:

To be sure, Gold’s blue-dotted weekly parabolic remains safely Long.  However, by our BEGOS Markets Values measure (in placing a near-term value on Gold per its movements relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS components, i.e. the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500), price is still some +70 points “high” above its smooth grey valuation line; and of course, the two inevitibly shall eventually meet.  Here they are from three months ago-to-date:

And again as you well know, we fully expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to trade this year, and further our forecast high for Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Yet as the “Not in a Straight Line Dept.” reminds us, we see the route thereto traveling through the 2703-2641 zone, just in case you’re scoring at home.

‘Course, how lovely ‘twould be to be wrong and instead see Gold proceed from here at 2918 right up the road to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3798.  Highly unlikely anytime soon, although in responding at a gathering this past week to the query “Is Gold now going to 10,000?” we said “No, and likely somewhat lower near-term, yet 4,000 perhaps is possible in two years or so…”

But obviously the bogeyman in the room is inflation — which most broadly is a Gold positive — but intermediately a threat to price should the Federal Open Market Committee resort to raising rates.  The good news there, however, is both retail and wholesale inflation by consensii are expected to have somewhat slowed their February paces from those for January.  Next Wednesday (the Consumer Price Index) and Thursday (the Producer Price Index) shall tell the tale.

Indeed let’s segue to the Economic Barometer which took a bit of a boffing during the week.  Of the 15 incoming metrics, only five improved period-over-period.  Most impressive were January’s Factory Orders which increased from December, that month’s decrease being favourably revised, and which beat consensus.  But the stinker was the backup in January’s Wholesale Inventories, which accumulated over those for December, that month’s depletion revised to a slower pace, and were a bit more bloated than consensus.  Too came the not so rare dichotomy of February’s Payrolls taking a rather severe hit per ADP, but by the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually increased.  “What’s your source?”  Here’s the Baro:

 

Meanwhile, let’s assess the state of the 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notably for the yellow metal, price spent much of yesterday’s week-ending session clustered ’round the now volume-dominant 2927 level.  As for the white metal, she settled the week smack on her volume-heavy 32.90 support/resistance bar:

More broadly with respect to Gold’s 300-day moving average across the last 14 years, price generally pulls back when ’tis +20% or higher above that measure (the blue line in the graphic).  Just prior to the start of the current near-term price correction (which began from the All-Time High of 2974 on 24 February), Gold had settled as high as +22.2% above said average; at present ’tis still a lofty +18.4% above same.  So again, we ought not be surprised should Gold further subside:

Toward closing, in light of the S&P 500 (which year-to-date is now down -1.9%, “OMG!”) having just recorded its weakest week (-3.1%) of the ten thus far this year, as we earlier teased, let’s check in with a few of Friday’s “FinMedia Freakout” finales:

Bloomy“Wall Street’s Big Selloff Puts Pressure on America’s Rich Households”  Lovin’ this one, for how many times have we written:  “Marked-to-market everyone’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality nobody’s worth squat”;

DJNw“Most Americans can’t afford life anymore…”  So is DJNw’s assumption here the alternative?  That’s a bummer.

CNBS“The oversold stocks due for a technical bounce after a brutal week.”  Truly ’tis dumbing down of the word “brutal”; we’ve haven’t had “brutal” since March 2020; and from 2008 into 2009, we regularly ate “brutal” for breakfast.  So what leads to “brutal”?  The aforenoted “live” S&P P/E of 41.0x.

“So then is the S&P about to crash, mmb?”

Obviously no one knows, Squire.  What will eventuate over time is the reversion of the S&P’s P/E to a level of normalcy, as earlier cited in the low 20s via1) a doubling in earnings without the stock market rising, or 2) a 40%-50% stock market “correction”, or 3) a“Combination of the Two –[Big Brother and the Holding Company, ’68]

Either way, we wrap with a wry note:  per this penning, there remain two full weeks of winter.  Yet for some reason of absurdity, StateSide folks early tomorrow move their clocks to summer hours.  What that means for The Gold Update is — by adhering to its time-honoured traditional uploading each Saturday at 11:00 PacCoastTime — ’twill be an hour earlier here EuroSide at 19:00 for our next three editions (15, 22 and 29 March) until we then nudge our clocks forward come 30 March.

And specific to next week’s piece, beware the Ides of March, for it brings our 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update

07 March 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

StateSide ’tis February’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro (and late in the session January’s Consumer Credit). At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The S&P 500 remains “textbook oversold” such that a so-called “dead cat bounce” may be warranted; however the Index’s broader technical picture is facing a negative crossover on the monthly MACD that seemingly can confirm into April; given the unsustainably high “live” P/E of 40.4x, the S&P ought deservingly suffer rough sledding at least over the near-to-medium term, especially with the short-term U.S. Treasuries yielding better than triple that of the S&P (4.197% vs. 1.343%). ‘Tis to worthy to note that from the S&P’s March 2009 low, the Index has increased by as much as 822%: thus this 7% pullback is essentially noise; indeed were it not for COVID and the monetary creation thereto, the S&P today (5739) would instead be ’round 3000.

06 March 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

Presently we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility for this time has calmed to mostly light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve now a positive correlation between the Euro and Gold, which makes sense give the Dollar’s demise notably this week. Copper’s +4.9% net gain yesterday was the largest since 04 November 2022: at Market Trends, Copper’s rally was sufficient to stall the otherwise falling “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. Meanwhile, that measure for the Spoo continues to drop, albeit the S&P 500 itself is now seven days “textbook oversold”; still, the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is a horribly high 43.1x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include January’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories, plus the revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

05 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

The Euro, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper notably having traced 170% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As has oft been the case of late, we’ve no notable correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our 10-test basis cites the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Parabolics as best, whilst on a 24-test basis we show both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. The Dollar Index has thus far traded today down to its lowest level (105.280) since 11 November, Gold getting a bit of a bid in the balance, albeit to the extent ’tis geo-politically driven, we look for Gold to resume working lower (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus January’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

04 March 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market’s is moderate, (which you may be noting is the case ’round this time more frequently of late). Yesterday’s whirl back down in the S&P 500 ought not be too much of an eyeopener given the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend having last week rotated from positive to negative, as presently is the stance as well for both Silver and of course Oil over recent weeks; by Market Trends, those for the other five BEGOS components are positive; however Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in freefall as are those for Copper. Too for the S&P per our Moneyflow page, all three time bases (weekly, monthly, quarterly) point to still lower levels ahead for the Index. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with then 13 incoming metrics remaining from tomorrow through the week’s balance.

03 March 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

At present the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the anticipated fall having commenced for the yellow metal; as written: “…should the present selling become more substantive … ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone…” By Market Values, Gold — after having been better than +200 points “high” above its some valuation line — is now +56 points “high”. Notably too by that same metric, the Bond remains nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro basically in line, Oil -4.55 points “low” and the Spoo -104 points “low”. Despite the S&P 500’s +1.6% Friday rally, the Index is actually mildly “textbook oversold”; more meaningfully however, the overall weak level of earnings doesn’t support the “live” P/E of 44.0x. Q4 Earnings Season is complete with 69% of the S&P’s constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago, an above-average showing over 66% for the past eight years. The Econ Baro begins its week of 15 incoming metrics with February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 798 – (01 March 2025) – “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 798th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls

Not that we’ve been rooting for Gold to fall, but it being one of the world’s most substantive liquid markets, it implicitly both rises and falls in its interactive role — that reflecting the cost of currency debasement — as one of the five most important financial stores of value along with the Bond (the cost of money), the Euro (or major currency of your choice as the cost of foreign flows), Oil (the cost of the global economic engine) and the S&P 500 (or major market index of your choice as the cost of equity risk).  We of course refer to this high-level grouping as BEGOS:  (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).

And from one trading day to the next, each of these five markets at the macro level basically receive and distribute money from one another.  In turn, their combined changes in price elicit a valuation for each component as updated daily on the website’s Market Values page.  And if you’ve been paying attention, Gold across the past few weeks was getting wildly up beyond valuation, our having emphatically pointed to such state in the prior two missives.  But now finally facilitated is Gold’s requisite fall, healthy in spite of it all:

‘Course contra to our wary stance — courtesy of the FinMedia —  emerged the “Suddenly Everybody’s a Gold Expert Dept.” proclaiming the price of 3000 being imminent.  And thus it did not happen, oft normal in such market-amateur hysterias.

Rightly instead, Gold as anticipated whirled ’round down to record its third worst week in better than a year, this time dropping -2.8% (-82 points) in settling yesterday at 2867.  Or to put it to music, we cue the Swiss rock band Gotthard from their ’07 song “The Call”: The higher they fly, the harder they fall…”

“And, mmb, that really applies now to the stock market, eh?”

Frighteningly so, Squire.  Indeed to quote George Kennedy in “The Eiger Sanction”  (Universal, ’75):  They won’t even know it’s coming until it hits.”  Or as a valued charter reader of The Gold Update has on occasion queried:  “Does it really matter which snowflake causes the avalanche?”

Then this past Thursday (per our daily Prescient Commentary) came Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency at long last breaking down below their +80% axis (as we’ll later see), which is key in having generated this signal in the end-of-day work spree:

“The obvious question then is, mmb?

Squire, “How low is low?”  Thus here we go:  should the present selling become more substantive from the current 2867 level, ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone.  To be sure:  we still expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to eventually trade, directly or indirectly en route to Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high for this year.  But as we’ve herein reminded since New Year (Gold then 2639), the road to 3262 can quite fairly pass through the lower 2500s.  Is that to where this down run is heading?  Nobody knows.  But ’tis better to get the year’s low place before the high.

And as we been emphasizing, a wayward wrench dropped into the Gold works is inflation.  Recall our title from two missives ago included the phrase Fed’s Next Hike”.  Apparently “hike” is not an allowable utterance at large.  Rather, press musings oscillate between “cut” and “pause”, with a lean of late toward the latter.  This results from their not implementing math.  Most notably came yesterday’s “Fed-favoured” inflation report for January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures.  The headline number — rather than easing — remained steady at +0.3% whilst the core number’s pace increased from +0.2% to +0.3%.  Here thus is our inflation summary for January:

No, thy eyes do not thee deceive.  Across the six measures, January’s average annualized inflation pace was +4.4%, more than double the +2.0% ultimately desired by the Federal Open Market Committee, nearly double December’s +2.6% rate, and the most since February a year ago.  But absent the use of mathematics, the once mighty Barron’s (which in recent years we’ve designated as a “children’s pool”) ran yesterday with “Inflation Eased…”  Seriously.  No wonder “The Dow” (that Index at which our parents used to look) gained +601 points.

So with the inflation scare in the air, Gold duly dropped as it needed to so do anyway, price as below shown arriving smack on the ascending regression trendline from one year ago-to-date per the weekly bars.  Note the parabolic’s flip to Short price is now 2683, which is quite centered in our aforementioned “how low is low” 2703-2641 zone.  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the white metal retreating more swiftly than the yellow metal:

Lower Gold to be sure, but ’tis not to be distressed.  For with two months of 2025 now in the books, we go to our BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date to again find the Metals Triumvirate leading the whole pack, Copper now atop the stack +13.4% as the red, yellow and white metals dominate the podium:

And with further specificity to the precious metals, here we’ve the year ago-to-date percentage tracks of Gold along with key of its equities kin, therein finding Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) having doubled at +100%, followed closely by Pan American Silver (PAAS) +91%, and then the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +51%,  Newmont (NEM) +43%, Gold itself +40%, the bunch rounding out with Franco-Nevada (FNV) +36%.  ‘Tis about as good as it gets, even as near-term price decline has set in:

Hardly in decline since Halloween is the Economic Barometer, instead sporting on balance the mildest of rises.  ‘Course as we’ve pointed out across some 27 years of maintaining the Baro, increasing inflation works as a positive influence as it raises the nominal values of many-a-metric.  Either way for this past week’s 11 incoming metrics, five bettered their prior period, five were worse, and steady was the first revision to Q4’s Gross Domestic Product at an annualized  +2.3% pace:

As for yesterday’s S&P 500 big post-White House brawl rally, we eye it as a “dead cat bounce” given the significant deterioration of late in the Index’s Moneyflow regressed into S&P points.  By the website’s S&P Moneyflow page, the Index per this leading indicator “ought be” some 180-to-230 points lower than currently ’tis (5955).  Still, a tip of the cap to just concluded Q4 Earnings Season:  therein, 454 S&P 500 constituents reported, 69% of them bettering their bottom lines from a year ago, which across the past 31 reporting quarters has averaged 66%.  But as we point out ad nauseam, the overall level of earnings remains terribly weak given the price of the Index, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P now 43.3x.  So stay suspect when it comes to stocks.

Not suspect a wit (per the “SELL” in the table earlier displayed) is the inevitable cascade in Gold’s “Baby Blues”, the red-encircled dot below confirming such signal.  So as is our month-end wont, here we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across the past 21 trading days (one month).  And you know the jingle: “Follow the blues, instead of the news, else lose yer shoes:

Next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Clearly at 2867, Gold is better than -100 points below its recent All-Time High (2974 this past Monday), whilst Silver has traveled from the 34s back to the 31s.  Notable volume-dominant prices are as labeled:

And with February now in the books, ’tis once again Gold Structure time by the month across some 16 calendar years.  Take note of “The Infamous Triple-Top” whereby each candle closed well below its respective month’s high, price then declining over the ensuing months:  our rightmost candle now for February has the same characteristic.  The good news “as ever” is Gold by currency debasement remains very cheap indeed.  Nonetheless, here’s the graphic:

So thus far for 2025 we’ve two months down (both net-net up for Gold) and ten to go.  As noted, in the year’s balance remain Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 and our projected Golden Goal Three of 3262 for the high.  Yet ahead of such ascent we’ve this current descent, for which as stated we are thankful given major markets are not unidirectional.  However, one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came.  Either way, in the words of The Gold Update’s first ever reader away back in 2009 (JGS):  “We’ll watch it together.”

So be a cool cat and stay with your Gold!

28 February 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices; more tomorrow in the 798th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Along with the yellow metal at present, Copper, Oil and the Swiss Franc are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. The Moneyflow of the S&P 500 continues to be weaker than the down move in the Index itself: yesterday’s change in the S&P was -1.6%, however the Money suggested a change of -3.1%: as this is a leading indicator, we look for further selling in the S&P; mind our S&P Moneyflow page. ‘Tis the final day of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro wraps its week, indeed the month, with February’s Chi PMI plus January’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.

27 February 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate, although like yesterday ’round this time, Oil has traced but 18% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are provisionally (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis, indicative (upon confirmation) of lower prices near-term: recent missives of The Gold Update have been anticipative of a run down; looking at Market Values in real-time, Gold is +107 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. By that metric for the other four primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro as essentially in line, Oil as -6.25 points “low” and the Spoo now as -76 points “low”. The week’s selling in the S&P 500 has actually pushed it down into “textbook oversold” territory, however the Index remains dangerously high by its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 44.6x. Included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q4 GDP.

26 February 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

The Bond and the EuroCurrencies are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, save for Oil which has traced just 15% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For the S&P 500, similar to that from Monday, on Tuesday whilst the Index fell -0.5%, the Moneyflow was instead suggestive of a -1.6% fall, again indicative of further selling still to come (see our S&P Moneyflow page). The Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend confirmed rotating to negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now having moved below their 0% axis (see Market Trends); should the selling turn more substantive, we’d look in due course for the S&P 5400s. The Bond’s cac volume is rolling from March into June, whilst that for Silver from March into May. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s New Home Sales.

25 February 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

The Bond is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Gold and Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. As anticipated, in real-time the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend line has rotated to negative (see Market Trends) as has been that for Oil for the past few weeks; such trend for the other six BEGOS components is positive, albeit with weakening “Baby Blues” (which depict trend consistency) in decline for the Bond and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate. The MoneyFlow of the S&P 500 was notably more negative yesterday (-1.2%) than that of the Index itself (-0.5%), suggestive of lower price levels near-term. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Consumer Confidence.

24 February 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

Into the new week we’ve presently both the Euro and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update (as was the case a week ago) gives a near-term bearish bias strictly by technicals and the deMeadville proprietary measures (see Gold under BEGOS Markets): an affective metric this week shall be Friday’s release of PCE inflation data; either way, Gold completed an eighth consecutive up week for just the fifth time (mutually-exclusive basis) this century and currently priced at 2954 is -46 points below “Golden Goal Two” of “milestone 3000”. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And, barring laggards, this is the final week of Q4 Earnings Season: with 402 S&P 500 constituents thus far having reported, 69% have improved their bottom lines from Q4 of 2023, a somewhat better-than-average improvement pace; problematic remains the extreme 45.2x P/E ratio.

The Gold Update: No. 797 – (22 February 2025) – “Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 797th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Higher Every Week Year-to-Date

Let’s commence with another infamous Gold Update quiz!  Ready?

Since at least this very day a month ago (22 January), what technically until yesterday (21 February) have both Gold and the S&P 500 had in common?

“They’ve been overbought day-after-day, right mmb?”

Spot-on there, Squire.  Per near-term widely-used “textbook technicals”, (in our case the potent cocktail of John Bollinger’s Bands, plus Relative Strength and a generous dash of Stochastics), we’ve Gold now “overbought” through the past 29 trading sessions (since 08 January), as had been the case for the S&P 500 through 21 trading sessions (since 22 January) until finally yesterday it began to all go wrong.

But of greater import than technical excess, fundamentally both Gold and the S&P instead remain 180° out of phase.  As we regularly remind, whilst the major markets are never wrong, they can be terrifically misvalued.  And ’tis quite stark for this pair:

  • Gold, in settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 2950, is still well shy of the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement valuation level of 3843; in other words, Gold is trading at a -23% discount to its true value.

  • The S&P 500, in settling its week at 6013, remains maniacally expensive, the honestly-calculated price/earnings ratio now 45.7x versus the 25.4x reading a dozen years ago; in other words, the S&P 500 is trading at a +80% premium to such normalized value.

Or if you prefer, the S&P is today at a +154% premium vis-à-vis Jerome B. Cohen’s “in bull markets the average [p/e] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings”.  But we digress…

The point specific to Gold is:  to be sure, ’tis still today a magnificent value, even in having achieved yet another marginal All-Time High this past Thursday at 2973.  In fact, through these first eight trading weeks of 2025, all have been up for Gold, price itself year-to-date now +12%.  Moreover — in the pure vacuum of linear regression — Gold is on pace to finish this year +93% at 5093(!)  ‘Course, such level would be ridiculously overvalued above Dollar debasement, and again (as we did pen back in 2011) Gold shall “have gotten ahead of itself”.  No, this year ’tis not going to happen.

But in context with our missive’s title, Gold has reached rarified air in terms of consecutive up weeks.  Its last down week was that ending last year.  And now for just the fifth mutually-exclusive (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means non-overlapping) instance — for the 1,260 weeks thus far this century — Gold has recorded eight or more consecutive up weeks.  Here’s the summary, the current up streak emboldened therein:

Indeed per our prior piece, we’d a bit of a bias toward last week being down.  Not so much given Gold’s “textbook overbought” state, but rather by our proprietary, reliable measure of price versus its smooth valuation line, which as you regular readers knows gauges Gold’s movement relative to those of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).  Here’s the updated graphic from a year ago-to-date, the red encirclements indicative of price essentially being +200 points “high” above the smooth line.  Note when this last occurred in April a year ago, price swiftly sank from 2400 to 2300, then to remain stalled in that range until July:

“But the news says everybody’s buying, mmb…”

We love Squire’s tee-up comments, and the FinMedia certainly is taking a rare above-average notice of Gold.  ‘Course — courtesy of the “It Takes Two to Tango Dept.” — if “everybody’s buying” then too “everybody’s selling”; ’tis just that more offers are being hit than bids, price thus rising.  And as stated, such has been the case through this year’s first eight weeks as we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost eight closing nubs ascending in green:

Too, never has the phrase “Gold 3000!” been so bandied about by “everybody”.  You’ll recall from last week’s wrap our referring to the late Art Cashin (best last name ever for a stock market maven) having quipped that should a stock reach up to the price of 90, then 100 shall trade.  And thus Gold having already had 2900 trade would correspondingly see 3000, (which obviously it ultimately shall).  For as you know,  we’ve Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000, and then by year-end, Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high.

But having been in this business across many-a-decade, one learns that when something “Well obviously!” is imminent to happen … it oft doesn’t.  As we’ve clearly set forth, the price of Gold near-term is significantly stretched to the upside such that a series of pullback weeks may well now be in order.  Too, as mentioned back at New Year in forecasting 3262 for this year’s high, we specifically stated that the road to that level can reasonably pass through the lower 2500s.  And what an additional buying opportunity that would be.  As is regularly said in this business, we’ll see…

In seeing to the StateSide economy, the Conference Board issued January’s “Leading Indicators” as having had an on-balance decline of -0.3%, whereas as next depicted in the Economic Barometer, that month’s metrics have instead sported a bit of an up bend.  The difference lies in the Conference Board’s assemblage of 10 key monthly indicators versus our aggregation of some 50 metrics.  To the Board’s credit, they regularly make prior month revisions such that come February’s report (20 March) we may see January’s result bumped back up a pip or two: 

Either way, February metrics from last week showed quite notable month-over-month declines in the National Association of Home Builders Index, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and in the revision to the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey.  And the ensuing week brings the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for January of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

But stranger stillthe stock market actually went down on the poor news!  This hasn’t materially happened (without looking it all up) since the March 2020 onset of COVID.  Indeed the new paradigm since then has strictly been “Earnings and economic data are irrelevant because bad news means the Fed has to cut rates!”  Or has that strategy of buying stocks on negative news just stopped working?

With the aforementioned S&P 500 p/e ratio now 45.7x, are earnings soon to matter again?  With the annualized dividend yield on the S&P now 1.253%, is investing $100,000 in the mighty Index worth the $1,253 return in addition to it being hoovered away and then some should stocks suffer?  After all, for the 45 years from 1980 through 2024, the S&P has actually posted years that were down, (’tis said younger traders don’t understand that), in fact on average once every four years … but there’s been only one down year in the past six!  Oh no, say it ain’t so!

And yet, $100,000 invested in the U.S. One-Year Treasury Bill now shall return $4,168:  that’s more than triple the S&P’s yield and you get your money back!  What a concept, eh?  Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame … think about it.  Once again, on verra…

Too scary, let alone risky, is the stock market.  So let’s get back to Gold …  Good ol’ Gold!

And turning to our two-panel Gold graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, never in our immediate memory have we ever seen such a pasting on the ceiling for the baby blue dots of trend consistency.  Year-to-date, price has been as close to “straight up” as is conceivable.  ‘Course, Gold being a major liquid market, such trend shan’t last; but ’tis been the most amazing ride of late.  As for the Profile, note that volume-dominant support falls away below 2931:

Then there’s “poor ol’ Sister Silver”, albeit trading in the 33s, hardly is she “poor”.  But in her like graphic, she’s not been (at left) as robustly up as has been Gold, whilst per her Profile (at right) she’s jammed into the center of a trading range essentially spanning from 32.25 up to 33.40.  Yet priced to the century-to-date 68.8x average of the Gold/Silver ratio (the actual ratio currently 89.9x), Silver rather than at 32.83 today would instead be +31% higher at 42.90 … just in case you’re scoring at home:

Speaking of scoring, to wrap, the U.S. Treasury (as you’ve no doubt read) presently “scores” the United States Bullion Depository supply of Gold at $42/oz.  Therein said facility — just on the outskirts of Fort Knox, Kentucky — is “officially” (in round numbers) some 147,300,000 ounces of Gold according to “AI” (“Assembled Inaccuracy”), for an accounting value of $6,174,000,000.  That is how much the U.S. Federal Government spends about every 10 hours.  (Do the math if you must, starting with the annual spend of $6,740,000,000,000).  Makes ya feel kinda small, what?  However:  marked-to-market at $2950/oz. puts the value — were it all liquidated at that price — to a supply total of $433,650,000,000 which essentially would run the federal government for one month.  That’s it.

21 February 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral range for today; however, session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold indeed made another marginal All-Time High yesterday in reaching 2973 (from the prior 2968); as you well know, the yellow metal — whilst still significantly undervalued vis-à-vis Dollar debasement — is extremely near-term overbought: more in tomorrow’s 797th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been narrowing since a recent peak at 93 points on 07 January: through yesterday, ’tis now 64 points; again, we’re minding the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) for its rotating from positive to negative. The Econ Baro wraps its week with metrics which include January’s Existing Home Sales.

20 February 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time

The Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light, (save for the non-BEGOS Yen which has traced 103% of its EDTR, which for the BEGOS components can be seen at Market Ranges). Correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have been messy of late with no notably directional pairings therein. Gold appears poised to set another All-Time High (above 2968) as the day unfolds: the high thus far this session is 2967. The S&P 500 is entering its 21st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” look to slip into negative territory within the next few sessions as the linreg trend rotates to negative, (barring a firm rally). And amongst the metrics due for the Econ Baro are February’s Philly Fed Index and January’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” given the Baro) Indicators.

19 February 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

At present, only Oil is outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is quite light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the best currently are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator as well as the red metal’s 2hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis our leaders are (as oft has been the case) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. The flow into Gold is being maintained, price (2950) in real-time +203 points above its smooth valuation line; today marks the 22nd consecutive trading session for Gold with its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) above their key +80%, a stretch which for any BEGOS Market is remarkable. The Econ Baro looks to January’s Housing Starts/Permits; and late in the session come the Minutes from the FOMC’s 28/29 meeting.

18 February 2025 – 08:48 Central Euro Time

Into the session’s second day, as expected the BEGOS Markets have increased their range traveled: at present below their Neutral Zones are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo, with overall volatility firmly moderate, leaning toward robust as the day develops. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be at an all-time high of 6140 (vs. the actual-to-date of 6128). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time), we show both the Bond and Euro as nearly on their smooth valuation lines, Gold as +185 points “high” above same, Oil -4.35 points “low” and the Spoo as +94 points “high”. With Gold at 2925, the volume-dominant overhead Market Profile resistors are 2931 and 2944. The Econ Baro awaits February’s NY Empire State and NAHB Housing Indices.

17 February 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

The BEGOS Markets begin the week with a two-day session (for Tuesday settlement); at present, we’ve the Bond below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Gold; session volatility already is pushing toward moderate and likely by this time tomorrow shall be mostly robust. The Gold Update graphically depicts last week’s price spike to the new All-Time High of 2968; still, we are cautious of Gold’s near-term extensive stance, seven consecutive up weeks now recorded; price is “textbook overbought” for the last 25 trading days, and (in real-time) ’tis +171 points above it smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too, the inflation scare has us once again musing of the Fed potentially having to revert to raising rates. To this point in Q4 Earnings Season, 361 S&P 500 constituents have reported, of which 70% have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 of 2024: again, that is an above-average rate of improvement, albeit the Index itself remains catastrophically high with the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant 47.8x.

The Gold Update: No. 796 – (15 February 2025) – “Gold’s Price Spike; Fed’s Next Hike”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 796th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold’s Price Spike; Fed’s Next Hike

“This is where it starts to get fun.”

If said phrase ran across your mind during this past week, worry not: for it, too, ran through our mind.  And thus it having run through both your mind and our mind, then it also ran through the many minds of those financially math-inclined.  For there was more meat in this past week than one might have expected to digest (barring having imbibed in a settling digestive).

First, per our title, let’s assess “Gold’s Price Spike”. For en route to (barely) completing a seventh consecutive up week, Gold on Tuesday made a “Trump Tariffs!” spike up to as high as 2968, a mere 32 points from achieving the Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000.  For whilst much of the western world slept, Gold took off like a jet from Tuesday’s open at 2937 to 2968, a +31-point spike in just three hours.  ‘Course it being a price spike, ’twas swiftly short-lived and then some within the 30 minutes that followed.

Further, given fears of renewed inflation made manifest come Wednesday’s StateSide Consumer Price Index, Gold gave up the entirety of the week’s gain to that point on the metric’s staggering shock.  But, another “Global Trade War!” buying binge nonetheless ensued, only to be purged anew, Gold then settling yesterday (Friday) at 2894 for a bare gain of just +8 points for the week.  Here are those five days (10-14 February) by the hour:

And no, thy eyes do not thee deceive, for on the graphic ’tis queried “Fed Rate HIKE?”  Indeed, with respect to the balance of this week’s title, recall these statements from the past two editions of The Gold Update:

1)  01 February:  “…an inflation scare followed by a Federal Reserve rate hike, should they dare, something for which the financial world at large seems unaware…”

2)  08 February “…an inflationary scare could cause a Fed flare (again, should they dare), in turn substantiating a Gold price pare…

Indeed a scare:  January’s headline CPI pace of +0.5% was well beyond experts’ consensus of +0.3%, as too was the core of +0.4%.

But wait there’s more:  The Producer Price Index then arrived Thursday — also above consensus — with headline and core respectively +0.4% and +0.3% … but did you see the revisions to December’s paces?  Headline PPI was recalculated from +0.2% to +0.5% and core from a flat 0.0% to +0.4% –> Across the 27 years of maintaining the Economic Barometer, ’tis but the third time headline PPI has been revised by +0.3% (and never greater) and the very first time core has been revised by as much as +0.4%.  Is this a result of too much holiday consumption of “egg nog” over there at the Bureau of Labor Statistics?  Such are the optics…  Again per our opening statement “This is where it starts to get fun.”

As to Gold’s rightmost price spike — indeed to another All-Time High of 2968 — here ’tis graphically portrayed by the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date, the blue-dotted parabolic Long trend now four weeks in duration:

Certainly still in play is our Golden Goal Two “milestone” level of 3000.  And yes, ’tis still quite reachable during the course of this current Long trend.  Yet that said, we see (at least one) down week ahead.  To be sure, Gold today at 2894 fundamentally remains -25% undervalued vis-à-vis the opening Gold Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3837.  But near-term Gold is technically overvalued as we again bring up our BEGOS Markets’ (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) metric for pricing Gold per its movement relative to those of the other four components.  And by the lower panel oscillator of price less value, Gold now reads as +160 points “high” above its smooth valuation line:

Moreover by standardized technical measures (our cocktail of Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics), we’ve Gold now “textbook overbought” through 25 consecutive trading sessions dating back to 10 January … just in case you’re scoring at home.  So whilst Goal Two for “milestone” 3000 remains well in the cards, (not to mention Goal Three of 3262 for this year’s forecast high), uni-directionality applies neither to Gold nor any major market, which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means Gold shan’t go straight up.

Still, making a bit of a turn up of late is the aforementioned Econ Baro.  As you long-time readers know, inflation — which just “suddenly” leapt back onto center stage — when rising is a Baro positive as nominal levels of various metrics increase in kind.  ‘Course as we’ve herein mentioned, ’tis stagflation that’s the worry.  Recall this from two missives ago with respect to the first peek at Q4’s Gross Domestic Product:  “…per the ‘Chain Deflator’, whereas inflation contributed to 38% of nominal Q3 GDP growth, for Q4 the inflation component increased to 49%.  Thus … slowing growth + increasing inflation = stagflation  And did you note the downswing in January’s Retail Sales by -0.9% versus +0.7% for December?

“But mmb, that’s just seasonal after holiday spending…”

Au contraire, mon Squire cher.  Through the past 27 years, only 12 (44%) of such December-January seasonal shifts have been negative.  A bit too much information perhaps, but conventional wisdom is oft oxymoronic.  Here’s the Baro:

Meanwhile, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (6115) is but a wee -0.2% below its intrad-day all-time high (6128 this past 24 January).  In turn, our honestly-calculated “live” price/earnings ratio is now 47.7x.  (Yes, we comprehensively understand that earnings have become completely irrelevant to pricing shares; otherwise, the S&P today would be just either side of 3000).

So instead, ’tis “Nuthin’ but Fed!”  And therein lies the confusion.  The StateSide President is insistent that the Fed further cut rates.  FedChair Powell sees the economy as too robust to warrant rate cuts.  And we see inflation as reasonably rampant to warrant rate hikes.  For not only has inflation not calmed down to the Fed’s preferred +2.0% annualized target, ’tis instead now moving further up and away from it.  Still, the “Fed favoured” inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) for January doesn’t arrive for another two weeks (28 February). If that too has popped, words such as “hike” and “raise” shall start to be FinMedia propped.

Left without a prop on Friday were both Gold and Silver:  the yellow metal’s intra-day drop of -2.5% was the worst since 18 December, whilst that for Silver of a whopping -5.5% was its worst since 12 December.  Both cases are below shown by their rightmost bars for Gold on the left with Silver on the right.  ‘Tis been a fine move — especially for Gold — across the past three months-to-date, albeit Friday might be referred to as a “technical failure” rather than an imminent trip toward Goal Two (“milestone” 3000).  That stated, as technically overbought is our Gold, ’tis primarily at present being fundamentally driven from one headline to the next, (per our hourly chart earlier displayed).  And as ever, mind those “Baby Blues” of trend consistency(!): 

Too for the precious metals we’ve next their 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right).  The yellow metal (currently 2894) may turn dicey sub-2888, whilst the white metal (currently 32.66) has just slipped under her 32.75 dominant volume support price:

So if you are thinking that we are thinking “down” is Gold’s watchword for this ensuing week, yes we agree, albeit as aforementioned, price of late is being headline-driven.  Still as we turn to the stack, Gold year-to-date is well in the black:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3837
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  2968 (11 February 2025)
2025’s High:  2968 (11 February)
10-Session directional range:  up to 2968 (from 2802) = +166 points or +5.9%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  2957 (13 February 2025)
Trading Resistance:  notable overhead Profile nodes 2931 and 2944
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2903
Gold Currently:  2894, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  34 points)
Trading Support:  most notably 2888, then 2875
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2607
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2424 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Next week brings just a moderate dose of data for the Econ Baro, notable of which come Thursday (20 February) is the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators for January.  Again for regular readers, you know our penchant for referring to such metric as “lagging” given the Baro has already told the tale.  Thus the consensus for a flat January — or maybe +0.1% at best — makes sense. 

Just ensure your Gold and Silver portfolio shares are many percent!

Cheers!

  …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

14 February 2025 – 08:25 Central Euro Time

We’ve both Silver and Copper at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver which already has traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market ranges). Barring January being an outlier, the pace of inflation is increasing away for the Fed’s +2.0% preference; more tomorrow in the 796th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; to that end, Gold thus far today has traded up to 2064, just 4 points shy of its 2068 All-Time High achieved this past Tuesday; as a caution, Gold in real-time is +226 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too in real-time, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally moved above their -80%; as previously noted, confirmation of that condition typical brings higher prices near-term. And ’tis a busy day to end the week for the Econ Baro, scheduled metrics being January’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus December’s Business Inventories.

13 February 2025 – 08:25 Central Euro Time

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their +80% axis: price already has moved lower into structural support of the 113s; were that to crack, a re-test of January’s lows in the 110s would be in order, especially should inflation be re-accelerating. By that same study, Oil’s “Baby Blues” are mildly curling back upward (-81% in real-time): a settle above -80% would suggest higher price levels; too, Oil’s cac volume is rolling from March into April. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s wholesale inflation data via January’s PPI.

12 February 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light with January’s retail inflation metrics in the balance. Going ’round the Market Rhythms horn for pure swing consistency, currently the leaders (on a 10-test basis) are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, the Euro’s 30mn Parabolics, Copper’s 15mn Price Oscillator, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) is again the Yen’s daily Parabolics as well as its daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. And at Market Trends, despite the Spoo’s being in a 21-day linreg uptrend, its “Baby Blues” of the trend consistency are dropping for the fourth consecutive session. As noted, the Econ Baro awaits January’s CPI, plus (purportedly) late in the session the Treasury’s Budget. And per Humphrey-Hawkins, FedChair Powell, having testified yesterday before The Senate, concludes today with The House.

11 February 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

Both Silver and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the six other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the past 14 consecutive trading days: there were significantly longer overbought stints during 2024, but ’tis something of which to be aware, especially given the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E now at 48.8x and a yield of 1.243% less than a third of that for the 3mo US T-Bill of 4.228% annualized. At Market Trends we’re minding the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency which are just starting to roll over to the downside with inflation data due both tomorrow and Thursday. And at Market Values the most extreme deviation is Gold’s being (in real-time) +216 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, pricing reaching another All-Time High earlier today at 2968. Again, ’tis a quiet session for the Econ Baro.

10 February 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

The week starts finding at present the Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The Gold Update muses the 3000 level as within reasonable distance by month’s end, however cautions that price has risen for six consecutive weeks (which historically is a bit of an outlier); still, the weekly parabolic trend is Long and we maintain our forecast high for this year at 3262; more immediately, Gold (in real-time) is +200 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); too, price is quite stretched above its 300-day moving average, (nearly +20%). Q4 Earnings Season continues to run at an above average pace for S&P 500 constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago: 71% of the 286 reports thus far have so done; ‘course it remains very problematic that the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is too low to support the extremely high Index itself, (the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this instant 48.4x). ‘Tis a back-loaded week for the Econ Baro with 13 metrics due beginning on Wednesday.

The Gold Update: No. 795 – (08 February 2025) – “Gold Teases 2900; to 3000 Unencumbered?”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 795th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 February 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Teases 2900; to 3000 Unencumbered?

The price of Gold just completed its sixth consecutive up week, within which the past three thus far comprise the newest weekly parabolic Long trend.  Indeed through this latest week, Gold continued to attain All-Time Highs, teasing yesterday (Friday) up through 2900 to 2910 before settling at 2886.

Moreover as you regular readers already know, our Golden Goal Two (of three) is the “milestone” level of 3000.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is now 93 points, within that vacuum, 3000 (+114 points from here) is certainly “within range” by month’s end.  But are six consecutive up weeks already getting a bit long in the tooth for Gold?

Just in case you’re scoring at home, century-to-date there are now 1,258 trading weeks in the books.  And therein we’ve had 176 Gold up streaks of two or more weeks.  However, Gold’s having completed an up streak of at least six weeks (such as to now) has only happened 14 mutually-exclusive times, the record being 12 up weeks from 20 August 2007 through 09 November 2007 for a net price gain of +26%.  As stated, this new weekly parabolic is but three weeks young per the rightmost blue dots…

…and as comprehensively detailed in our 25 January missive “Gold Goes Long with Three Golden Goals”, the average duration of the prior 10 such Long trends (dating back to December 2020) was 12 weeks.  Further, the average price gain was +10.5% which as penned per our Moderate assessment … would bring Gold 3069″.

‘Course, neither you, nor we, nor anybody “knows” when Gold 3000 shall trade.  But because we do the math, hardly would we bet against it ever happening, and reaching 3000 not only this year but on this current weekly parabolic Long trend — even as noted with this month — is quite reasonable.  And lest we forget more broadly, Golden Goal Three is our 3262 forecast high for this year, beyond which per the opening Gold Scoreboard, price by Dollar debasement already “ought be” 3833. 

Still, six consecutive up weeks for Gold and our being aware of an inflationary scare could cause a Fed flare (again, should they dare), in turn substantiating a Gold price pare.  For did you note yesterday’s +0.5% Hourly Earnings increase within January’s StateSide Non-Farm Payrolls?  That ties as the largest such increase for just the third time across the past 27 months.  And century-to-date, the average monthly increase is but +0.3%, itself annualized being +3.6% and thus above the Federal Reserve’s desired overall +2.0% pace.  Oh that wily wage-push inflation!   “Whoopsie…”

Too, by Gold’s broad-based 300-day moving average, price today is nearly +20% above such stalwart measure.  Historically since 2001, such excesses have been met with an average decline of nearly -9% during the ensuing three months.  Here’s Gold by the day since the 22 August 2011 then All-Time Closing High of 1900, the 300-day moving average as ever in blue:

Also using our BEGOS Markets’ (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) valuation tool which assesses the state of Gold relative to its movement vis-à-vis that of the other four components, price is at present +174 points above its “smooth valuation line” as is below seen per the lower panel oscillator (price less value).  Whilst that can be deemed as “high”, ’tis nevertheless a testament to Gold’s year-over-year brilliant bull run:

Sporting a far more flat run for nearly the past six months is our Economic Barometer.  To wit for the 16 incoming metrics during the week just past, period-over-period, eight improved and eight weakened:  “flat” indeed.  Amongst the standouts however, January’s ADP Employment data and both December’s Construction Spending and Consumer Credit levels all bettered their prior readings, all of which were in turn revised upward, and beat consensii.  But those losing out in all three like categories were January’s Average Workweek (in hours) along with the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index, December’s Factory Orders and Trade Deficit, plus the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.  A clash of many metrics indeed!  Here’s the Baro:

As for the S&P 500, its futures contract these past two Mondays saw substantive opening down gaps such that price intra-day fell -3.0% (27 January) and -2.1% (03 February); but in both cases, the gaps filled all the way back up.  Has investing become this easy?  Indeed, has the Investing Age of Stoopid become an eternal paradigm?  Recall the Wall Street Journal front-and-center piece back pre-DotComBomb about some folks actually believing stock prices only go up?  For all who still frolic in the complacent equities’ froth, we again humbly offer this one reminder:  the same-day “lock limit down” halts for the S&P futures are -7%, then -13%, and finally -20% (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “TILT! Game Over!“)

But for Gold, ’tis been nothing but “Game On!”  Below we’ve our two-panel display featuring the yellow metal’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right.  The baby blue dots of regression trend consistency quite literally have pasted themselves upon the ceiling, which if we may reprise, suggests this fabulous uptrend may seeking at least some near-term bend.  Per the Profile, Gold’s volume-dominant support levels are 2845, 2797 and 2772:

Again perhaps not as robust as that for Gold — but sterling nevertheless — is the like graphic for Silver, her daily bars (below left) and Profile (below right).  And as we’ve be saying week-in and week-out for some four years, Silver as gauged by her ratio from Gold (currently 89.7x) remains cheap, the ratio’s century-to-date average being 68.7x.  Indeed priced to that average today, Silver rather than at her current 32.19 price would instead be 42.00.  But we know you shan’t forget Sister Silver:

So to sum it all up:  Gold is having a fabulous run, that realistically shall become at least a bit undone given the reality which herein penned a week ago that “hardly are markets unidirectional”.

Yet so stated, per our title, is the tease at 2900 to in turn bring 3000 unencumbered?  Such query puts us back in mind better than 20 years ago when (admittedly out of ignorance) we’d gawk at FinTV thinking we could be on the cutting edge of markets’ directions.

“Oh that was pretty ignorant, mmb…”

Squire, your affirmation of such is illustriously inspiring.  But to our point:  rumbling ’round the floor of the New Stock Stock Exchange in those days was one Arthur D. Cashin, Jr.  And we’ve always remembered this quip from him:  “Usually, if a stock gets to 90, it’s goin’ to 100.”

Thus by such theory you can see where we’re going with this:  Gold having now reached 2900 means ’tis going to 3000, albeit by what we’ve herein noted today, perhaps not directly … but eventually.  Because as aforementioned, Golden Goal Three for this year remains our forecast high for 3262!

Cheers!

  …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

07 February 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

As was the same situation ’round this time yesterday, the Swiss Franc is presently below its Neutral Zone whilst above same is Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 49.6x: ’twill be interesting to see if (i.e. “when”) 50x is reached, the Index as a whole remaining extraordinarily expensive if not outright dangerous. As it ought be a rangy day for the Spoo with January’s Payrolls due, key apices in the Market Profile are 6099, 6086, 6076, 6065, 6047 and 6025. Gold’s remarkable resilience continues: more on that in tomorrow’s 795th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And for the Econ Baro in addition to the jobs data for January, we’ve also February’s UofM Sentiment Survey, and for December both Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.

06 February 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time

The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Currently we find no compelling correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Still, we can go ’round the horn by their Market Values as follows (in real-time): the Bond is 1^09 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (recall our year-end comment above a potential run up into the 116s, price currently 116^02); the Euro is -0.012 points “low”; Gold — which yesterday cleared the 2900 level for the first time — is +174 points “high” and in a sixth consecutive up week; Oil is -3.34 points “low”; and the Spoo is just +32 points “high”. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

05 February 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Looking at Market Ranges, most of the components’ EDTRs are around the mid-point of where they’ve been from a year ago at this time; those for Gold and the Euro are a bit above their mid-points. At Market Trends, all save for Oil are in 21-day linreg uptrends, including the Spoo even as it is struggling of late to stay upright. And for Market Rhythms on a pure swing basis for consistency, our top four (10-test basis) are currently the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics (see too yesterday’s comment), the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Gold’s 30mn Moneyflow, and the Spoo’s 2hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits January’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus December’s Trade Deficit.

04 February 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

For the second consecutive week the Spoo on Monday has gapped considerably lower, yet by week’s end (in this case just after this morning’s open) come all the way back up to “fill the gap”. Regardless, the Spoo is back on the skids, at present below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones, and session volatility is moderate. The non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s opening price (0.0064910); we mention this as ’tis been a leading study for pure swing consistency in our Market Rhythms going back better than a year. The Econ Baro looks to December’s Factory Orders.

03 February 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

The Dollar is getting a very health bid, such that — save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone) and Oil — the six other BEGOS Markets are in the red and all below said Neutral Zones; volatility is mostly robust. The Gold Update celebrates the yellow metal’s new All-Time High (furthered today up to 2862 basis the April cac) whilst again warning of the extreme overvaluation and fragility of the S&P 500; at this instant (per the Spoo and adjusting for Fair Value) were the stock market to open, the S&P would gap down -1.8% to 5931 from Friday’s 6041 settle. Our best Spoo Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is currently the 6hr MACD. And the Econ Baro commences its week with January’s ISM(Mfg) Index and December’s Construction Spending.