24 April 2025 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

Gold high-to-low this week has thus far dropped -239 points (-6.8%), albeit in real-time (now at 3328) ’tis still priced +307 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As for the BEGOS Markets at large, we’ve at present Gold along with the Euro and Swiss Franc above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility is light in the context of the extremely expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges): indeed that today for Gold is 90 points and for the Spoo 212 points. Amongst correlations for the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and Spoo, (the hedge thus being both Long or both Short). Yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500 was sufficient to see the “live” P/E settle all the way back up at 40.0x; futs-adj’d in real-time ’tis 39.9x. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include March’s Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales.

23 April 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time

Gold, after having made another All-Time High yesterday at 3510, has since dropped as much as -194 points in essentially 24 hours to 3316; current price is 3333, which is below today’s Neutral Zone as are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; above same are the Bond, Copper, Oil and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time we’ve: the Bond as nearly -3 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0549 points “high”, Gold +320 points “high”, Oil -2.59 points “low” and the Spoo -237 points “low”. By Market Rhythms, the Euro appears poised for a negative 12hr MACD crossover come 12:00 CET/10:00 GMT: follow-through of the prior eight swings has been at minimum 0.012 points (i.e. $1,500/cac). The Econ Baro looks to March’s New Home Sales. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

22 April 2025 – 08:21 Central Euro Time

Another day, another century mark for Gold, price having eclipsed the 3500 level: by Market Values, the yellow metal in real-time is +501 points above its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Copper, too is above today’s Neutral Zone, whereas the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having already traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver continues not to participate in Gold’s rally, the “live” Gold/Silver ratio now 106.8x. Yesterday’s -2.4% drop in the S&P 500 may be mollified by the MoneyFlow being more indicative of a -1.5% drop; the Spoo at present is -453 points below its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And Q1 Earnings Season thus for for the S&P shows 42 constituents having reported, of which 71% have bettered their like quarter of a year ago; the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.1x.

21 April 2025 – 08:46 Central Euro Time

EuroSide the long weekend continues, however StateSide ’tis back to business as usual with the BEGOS Markets on the move: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate whilst below same are both the Bond and Spoo; session volatility is firmly moderate. Indeed Gold is soaring this morning, currently +61 points at 3402, even as The Gold Update continues to cite the near-term technically overbought state of the yellow metal; in real-time, price is now +408 points above its smooth valuation line; by Market Profiles, Gold’s “nearby” volume supports are 3344, 3326, and then nothing of substance until 3237. Silver is not participating to Gold’s upside extent, the Gold/Silver ratio now 103.7x. ‘Tis a fairly light week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with March’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The Gold Update: No. 805 – (19 April 2025) – “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 805th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…

 
…does it not stand to reason that “Everybody’s” selling Gold?  After all, for every ounce bought, it must be sold to the buyer, non?  ‘Tis merely the agreed-upon hitting of available bids and offers that makes the price change.

But is such wise word to the Fin&Social/Media sufficient?  Likely, no.

Regardless, let’s go to Gold’s Moneyflow.  Similar to the website’s MoneyFlow graphics for the S&P 500, below we’ve regressed Gold’s Moneyflow into points such that it can be directly compared with the actual change in price.  To wit,  this three panel display (one week, one month, one quarter) wherein the green line is the cumulative points difference between Gold’s price change and its MoneyFlow:

“So what’s with that big dip there, mmb?  Because Gold is basically at a record high…”

Simple, Squire. Recall after Gold’s having settled at 3190 on 02 April came three robust rounds of selling, price then closing at 2999 on 07 April.  The “big dip” — as you put it — merely indicates that the amount of money by points regression which flowed out of Gold hardly in full has flowed back in, even as price as risen to yet another All-Time High at 3372 this past Thursday, toward settling the abbreviated trading week at 3341.  In fact, across the past nine trading days (07 – 17 April), Gold’s day-over-day contract volume declined for six of them, (see too our closing graphic).

“Well, none of THAT was on FinTV, mmb…”

Nor would it be, Squire, given their WestPalmBeacher audience.  The point is:  MoneyFlow ultimately leads price.  And as you regular readers know, price at present remains technically well-extended above its BEGOS valuation line per this year-over-year graphic:

To be sure, “mis-valuation” — whether technical or fundamental — seems oft “forever” sustained in markets (a prime example being the S&P’s ongoing post-COVID extreme over-valuation).  Obviously, one cannot “will” price to be elsewhere.  For ’tis axiomatic that price itself net of its bids and offers is never wrong; Gold therefore by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date is ever right:

Gold’s All-Time Closing high was recorded this past Wednesday at 3358.  ‘Twas but half that at 1679 a mere 2.3 years ago as encircled in the following table of Gold’s closing price “doublings” since 1975, which was the first full year featuring Gold futures at the COMEX:

‘Course per the table’s footnote, Gold first achieved the 1679 closing level some 14 years ago on 08 August 2011.  That — for those of you scoring at home — means Gold was net “unch” after 11 years despite a harrowing route.

Veteran readers may remember back in 2011 our penning about price “having gotten ahead of itself”,  after which Gold was severely sold — indeed way oversold — to as low as 1047 on 17 December 2015.  ‘Twas exemplary of Gold’s trials and tribulations as it fell far behind the Dollar debasement curve, which is de facto the most acute tool to value the yellow metal per our opening Gold Scoreboard.

Fast-forward to today at 3341, Gold still is -13% below the Scoreboard’s value of 3833.  Assuming that flexing level is graphically eclipsed (and we’re still around), we’ll again write of Gold “having gotten ahead of itself”.  Certainly at present, the Gold hype is ripe with 4000 in sight … which likely means it shan’t get there anytime soon.  Again given Gold’s expected yearly trading range — and assuming the 2625 low (06 January) holds — 3400 may well be Gold’s top for this year should “TT” (“Trump Tariffs“) reach some accord and Europe not be sucked into war.

One wonders as well if the StateSide Economic Barometer has topped for the year.  ‘Tis speculated that “TT” are grinding the economy to a halt:  “You mean we gotta make our own stuff??  I just wanna stay at home with my phone!!”  (You tell ’em, Stoopid).

Further, there’s still evidence of inflation, disinflation, stagflation and now even deflation, the latter per Labor’s March data.  But wait, as we offer more confusion:  last week’s set of 13 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro found six having improved period-over-period, six having worsened, and one as “unch”.  Even those so-called six-figure “experts” are amiss:  their consensus for April’s Philly Fed Index was +10.0 … it came in at -26.4 … “Ooooh!”  Here’s the year-over-year view, wherein even “The Chair” perhaps is confused:

Note as well in the Baro our “live” Price/Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still a hair-raising 39.2x (summation of: current prices ÷ trailing 12-month earnings x capitalization weighting, wherein non-earners are assigned their price as P/E).  The good news is that Q1 Earnings Season — whilst still early with just 41 S&P constituents having thus far reported — recorded 73% as having improved year-over-year results, which is an above average pace.  The bad news is — as you’ve herein read a bazillion times — the overall level of earnings remains far too low to support price, the P/E ratio invariably reverting to its mean, especially given the S&P’s 1.462% yield versus the 4.205% annualized yield on risk-free 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills.

Far more broadly, if one can stomach the volatility, Gold also is risk-free.  Simply stated, the higher the amount of fiat dough, the higher Gold shall go.  Recall GEICO’s infamous quip:  “It’s so easy, a caveman can do it” … and according to archaeology evidence, they were Gold-aware away back in the BCs.

What we next find is Gold’s notably having outperformed Silver of late via the two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for the yellow metal on the left and for the white metal on the right.  Last year from mid-May to mid-July, the Gold/Silver ratio basically resided in the 70s.  Today ’tis 102.7x, Sister Silver having yet again been led lower by cajoling Cousin Copper.  “For shame, young lady, for shame!”

Still, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles, Silver (below right) has managed to work higher, positioned therein quite similarly to that of Gold (below left).  And our sense is that Gold’s dominant volume supporter at the denoted 3237 price surely shall be tested in the new week:

To close it out, as earlier noted, Gold on Thursday reached an All-Time High of 3372, (indeed already +110 points above our year’s forecasted high of 3262).  Our being curious to see the FinMedia’s acknowledging of the fresh All-Time High, we went to three key website main pages:  Bloomy – no mention; Dow Jones Newswires: – no mention; CNBS – no mention.

Thus:  do pardon our forgetting that — at the end of the day — Gold remains an inert relic.  Or as ’tis said, “Nothing to see here” in this year-to-date chart of Gold, given every ounce bought must also be sold, (the “receding” volume, behold, per our MoneyFlow all told):

So, should Gold duly near-term flop, one ought fear not.  Rather:  be prepared to buy the drop!

Cheers!

…m…

18 April 2025 – 08:49 Central Euro Time

The BEGOS Markets and many global exchanges are closed as the long weekend begins. Just a few notes: the S&P 500 now at 5283 is now -14.1% below its all-time high of 6147, and is “textbook oversold” through the past 11 trading days; the P/E however remains perilously high at 39.2x, even as Q1 Earnings Season is running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement; still, the Spoo settled its week -371 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). On the other hand, Gold — whist still fundamentally undervalued — is +352 points above its smooth valuation line and is “textbook overbought” these past five sessions. More tomorrow in our 805th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. StateSide bourses resume trading on Monday, however those for Europe not until Tuesday. Bonne Fête de Pâques à Tous!

17 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

This week’s final trading day finds at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper below the day’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has recorded yet another All-Time High, thus far today reaching up to 3372: price in real-time is currently +356 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is positive between Oil and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus being Long one and Short the other one). The Euro by its Market Profile is on its second most heavily-traded apex of the past fortnight at 1.1400, (the most heavily-traded being 1.1080). And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index and March’ Housing Starts/Permits.

16 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

Gold is significantly higher this morning in having made another All-Time High at 3312: price is +1.8% whereas that for Silver is but +0.7%, Copper weighing there -1.2%. Only the Bond and Silver are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. By Market Rhythms, our two best on a 24-test basis currently are (per usual) the non-BEGOS Yen’s both daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics; on the 10-test basis, the present best are the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s NAHB Housing Index, plus March’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with February’s Business Inventories.

15 April 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light to this time, although again, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) remain extremely wide: for example, that for the Spoo today is 245 points, (and yes, brokers have been broadcasting full initial margin requirements during recent sessions). Looking at Market Trends, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold are in ascent, the other five BEGOS components in descent. The Spoo by Market Values is -295 points “low” vis-à-a its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is for eight consecutive sessions “textbook oversold”, albeit fundamentally the Index continues as vastly overvalued, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 39.8x at this instant; its yield is 1.421% vs. 4.195% annualized on the 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro awaits April’s NY State Empire Index, plus March’s Ex/Im Prices.

14 April 2025 – 08:51 Central Euro Time

Gold on Friday tapped our forecast high for this year of 3262 indeed reaching a point higher to the now new All-Time High of 3263, all as detailed in The Gold Update. The abbreviated trading week at present finds both the Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value shows (in real-time) as +277 points “high”; the yellow metal’s largest volume support price is 3160 (see Market Profiles). The Dollar Index since Friday has been trading below 100, that round number having previously proven as support during the second half of last September. Oil’s cac volume these next two days is moving from May into that for June. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, albeit 13 metrics are scheduled across the next three days. And Q1 Earnings Season picks up its pace a bit as the week unfolds.

The Gold Update: No. 804 – (12 April 2025) – “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 804th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262

Yesterday (Friday) at 13:33 GMT, June Gold traded at 3262.  ‘Tis our forecast high for this year as selected at New Year, and completes the triad of our three Golden Goals for 2025.

As yesterday’s session further unfolded, Gold retrenched, but briefly then made it to a point higher still at 3263 — the new All-Time High — before settling the week at 3255.  And the five-day low-to-high run (2970-to-3263) of +9.9% was Gold’s best intra-week percentage gain since that ending 14 August 2020 when COVID covered the cosmos.

Yet on to “The Now” as straightaway we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, which look nothing but great, price having made it to 3262 plus that extra point as icing on the cake:

Given 2025’s eventual total of 252 trading days, Gold reached our forecasted 3262 in just 70 sessions, which for those of you scoring at home means 72% of the year is still in the balance.

Thus the obvious question begged is:  Where Do We Go from Here?” –[Chicago, ’70].

Despite Gold having already achieved our upside goal, our call for getting there has been completely upside down.  En route to 3262, we’d anticipated Gold initially to pullback lower into the 2800s/2700s/2600s, even specifically to as low as 2507(!)  Instead through these first 15 weeks of 2025, just two have been down.  Such like stint hasn’t occurred since having penned the second edition of The Gold Update away back on 28 November 2009!

But to Pete Cetera’s above crooning question, remember our writing at New Year that “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates … 2507.  Then would follow the ascent to [the] forecast high of 3262…”

Our good man Squire then later questioned:  “But mmb, what if the 2625 low is already in for this year?” to which we responded “…were that to turn out to be the case, then our forecast for a 3262 year’s high may be deemed in hindsight as modest.”

Similar was the case last year (for which we sought 2375, price then moving well beyond that to 2802).  And now year-to-date, the low of 2625 (06 January) remains in place.

And thus as just penned this past 22 March:  “…’IF‘ the low for this year is already in place … Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the ‘expected yearly trading range’ equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy…”  Yep, no kiddin’, keep readin’.

However, one only gets one shot at a forecast; re-forecasting is verboten!  But given price’s present momentum, 3400 from here (+4.5%) seems a mere stone’s throw, barring it suddenly going all wrong for Gold.

That stated, the tug-of-war continues between Gold being technically near-term overbought vs. fundamentally broad-term undervalued.  The latter case is made evident by the opening Gold Scoreboard, price today (3255) being -15% below its Dollar debasement valuation of 3830.

But by our BEGOS Markets’ value method, the following year-over-year graphic of Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (2962) shows price presently as +293 points — i.e. +10% — too “HIGH”:

“So +293 points above value is pretty high, eh mmb?  Congrats on the call, by the way…”

Thanks Squire.  And indeed the current +293-point deviation is the second-highest century-to-date.  ‘Twas only higher by +311 points upon the then All-Time Closing Gold High of 1900 back on 22 August 2011, from which in two months Gold fell -15% (snowballing to a -44% fall per the end of 2015).  But more “recently” by percentage deviation, the last time ’twas by this much (+10%) was on 08 March 2022, after which price fell from 2058 to 1695 (-4.5%) come that year’s Bastille Day (14 July).

To be sure, if one labels “TT!” (“Trump Tariffs!”) as geopolitically Gold-boosting bedlam, price’s admirable rally is justifiable.  The Dollar Index just took quite a hit in sporting a weekly settle below 100 for the first time since that ending (believe it or not again) on Bastille Day 2023.  A Swiss Franc that day cost $1.1680 … today ’tis $1.2368.  Got Gold? Got Swiss??  Here’s the solid “Safe-Haven Two-Fer” that one cannot miss:  Miss Helvetia!

Such mirthful jubilation aside, you strident Gold aficionados well-understand what follows geopolitically-induced price spikes:  reversion to the mean.  Yes, we fully comprend that “It’s different this time” … ’tis always different this time … until ’tisn’t.  We thus remain sensitively wary for Gold’s price to be suddenly jerked into reverse.  Indeed such down stints have been lurking of late:  on each of 03, 04 and 07 April, Gold recorded intra-day declines of more than -100 points; they’ve just been lost in the sensationalized shuffle.

Shuffling down net-net since mid-February is the Economic Barometer.  Perhaps worse:  are we DEflating?  After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recording deflationary readings in three of its four key Price Indices for March:  the headline paces at both the Consumer and Producer levels were negative as was the latter’s core pace.  ‘Course the “Fed-favoured” paces of Personal Consumption Expenditures shan’t be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis until 30 April.  But should negativity also therein lie, the Federal Open Market Committee surely shall cut their Bank’s Funds Rate per the 07 May Policy Statement.  Too, of the Baro’s nine incoming metrics this past week, just two were “positive”:  March’s Treasury Budget was less negative, and Wholesale Inventories for February were worked down.  So in going to the year-over-year picture, just as the stock market can be a hedge against inflation, so too can it be a broken dam to deflation as such ebbing tide lowers all boats:

Next we turn to trend consistency for the precious metals as measured by their baby blue dots.  Below for Gold on the left, despite price’s “mega-spike” of nearly +200 points for the past week, the “Baby Blues” have become a bit unglued; certainly so for Silver on the right, the aforeshown Gold/Silver ratio at present a whopping 101.1x:

Thus as we view the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right), ’tis not surprising to find Gold’s closing white bar near the top of the chart, whilst that for Silver is mid-range.  ‘Course the culprit there is Cousin Copper, the red metal within the past three weeks posting a high-to-low blow of -25% from 5.374 (26 March) to 4.030 (07 April).  Oh those “TT!”

Toward the wrap, here’s the stack:

The Gold Stack

Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3830
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3263 (11 April 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 3263 (from 2973) = +290 points or +9.8%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3255 (11 April 2025)
Trading Resistance:  none by the Profile
Gold Currently:  3255, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  75 points)
Trading Support:  nearby 3247 and 3235, then 3160
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3116
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2970
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2549 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

So does Gold’s stellar run stop here, essentially at our 3262 forecast high for this year?  Until we actually experience the coming effect of “TT!”, its babble and prattle shall the markets still rattle.  But like everything else, be it geopolitically, monetarily, financially or whateverly, “TT!” eventually will fall from the FinMedia headlines and, in turn, Gold experience descent to some extent.  Either way, what a gut-grippin’ Gold ride we’ve spent!

11 April 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

Gold has come quite near to our 3262 forecast high for this year, trading this morning up to 3242 before pulling back; our “high if an up day” for Gold today is 3257, thus 3262 is plausible were there an ensuing price push. Gold is, as is the Euro, at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is firmly moderate, the Euro notably having already traced 138% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, extreme deviations remain for the five primary BEGOS components: in real-time the Bond shows as -3^19 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.055 points above same, Gold as +260 points above same, Oil as -7.52 below same and the Spoo as -422 points below same. The Swiss Franc (1.2233) is essentially at a 14-year high. ‘Tis March wholesale inflation day for the Econ Baro via the PPI, plus the initial April Sentiment read from UofM.

10 April 2025 – 08:51 Central Euro Time

Yesterday sported the fourth largest percentage low-to-high run since at least 1980 for the S&P 500: +10.8%. More on “Wacky Wednesday” in next Saturday’s 804th edition of The Gold Update. At present, only Gold is above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, again within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been blown out. We’ve gone on quite a bit in recent weeks about the Spoo being too low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Tuesday’s differential being -839 points: a substantive portion of that was reduced yesterday such that now in real-time ’tis -340 points. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus to be simultaneously Long or Short both of them). Metrics for the Econ Baro today include retail inflation for March via the CPI, and late in the session the month’s Treasury Budget.

09 April 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time

At present, only Oil is within today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate, whilst below same are the Bond and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. By Market Rhythms our best are currently (10-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and Gold’s 2hr parabolics; again (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. At Market Trends, save for the EuroCurrencies, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other BEGOS components. Our internally-measured MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 is inconsistent across its three key timeframes: the one-week measure suggests the Index ought be +50 points higher than ’tis; the one-month measure +136 points higher; but the one-quarter measure -919 points lower: the take-away is near-term higher, then broad-term lower, which too is the near-term technical stances per by the Spoo’s Market Values, but broad-term the fundamental reality of the very high P/E (“live” now 35.0x futs-adj’d). The Econ Baro awaits February’s Wholesale Inventories. Then late in the session come the FOMC Minutes from the 18-19 March meeting.

08 April 2025 – 08:52 Central Euro Time

The BEGOS Markets at present find the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Oil and the Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other three components are below same, and volatility is moderate, albeit in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have substantively widened in recent sessions: for example, a year ago today the Spoo’s EDTR was 51 points (price then 5257) whereas for today (price currently 5174) ’tis 165 points. Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency yesterday broke below the key +80% axis, making us anticipative of still lower price levels: by Market Values in real-time, Gold still is +79 points above its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is -681 points below same, even as the S&P 500 itself fundamentally remains quite overvalued give its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at 37.1x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, however as previously noted, Q1 Earnings Season has commenced, which you can follow day-by-day on that page.

07 April 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

Selling of equities looks to continue: adjusting the Spoo at present to Fair Value, the S&P 500 (were the StateSide market to open at this instant) would trade sub-5000 for the first time since 25 April a year ago. ‘Tis worth noting with the Spoo -4.4%, the -7% “lock limit” would apply at 4740. At present along with the Spoo below their respective Neutral Zones are both Gold and Oil; above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again firmly moderate and then some: both Silver and Copper (the latter at present back inside today’s Neutral Zone) have traced in excess of 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal still as being technically overbought near-term but fundamentally undervalued broad-term, whilst ’tis the opposite cases for the S&P 500, (technically oversold, fundamentally overvalued). The Econ Baro looks late in the session to February’s Consumer Credit. And Q1 Earnings Season gets underway.

The Gold Update: No. 803 – (05 April 2025) – “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 803rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed

Long-time readers of The Gold Update know our favourite final future headline is:  “World Ends, Dow +2”, (“The Dow” of course being that Index at which our parents used to look) … except these last two days instead brought Dow -3,911 … just in case you’re scoring at home.

“The Dow” thus having gone down, obviously, the world didn’t end, albeit as a seasoned investor here said earlier in the week:  “Nobody at Goldman has ever experienced a down market”.  Hence the hysteria over something way overdue, certainly so across these last few years.

Indeed on the heels of last week’s missive “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”, an ever-so long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst was finally revealed in the form of a StateSide attempt for tax equality on imported goods.  (See our personal experience closing wrap on that).  More catalyst crash considerations later.  But first, let’s cut to the quick.

Thursday and Friday saw Gold — itself overdue to come off — finally so do whilst stocks got boffed … and Sister Silver summarily slaughtered in loss … all below summarized in this BEGOS Markets’ two-day net change table nonetheless featuring Gold now as 2025’s boss:

And still up +15.8% for the year, Gold this past Wednesday recorded another All-Time High at 3202:  that’s a mere 60 points away from our Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262.  But then the selling ensued, price settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3056.  Through the 14 trading weeks year-to-date, ’twas just the second that was down.  But yes, Virginia, Gold (below left) now at 3056 still shows technically near-term as +110 points “high” above its smooth valuation line of 2946, whereas the S&P 500 (below right) by the like metric for the futures is -787 points “low”:

Again, we emphasize that is technically near-term:  Gold is too high and the S&P 500 too low; (and you can find such stances as updated daily on the website’s BEGOS Market Values page).  But fundamentally broad-term, ’tis comprehensively au contraire, mes chères soeurs et frères!  True valuation of Gold is mathematically solved per debasement of the U.S. Dollar, whereas for the S&P ’tis by a rational generation of earnings.

Thus in the following table wherein Gold for the moment is +3.7% overvalued and the S&P -13.6% undervalued, of far greater importance is Gold being -20.2% undervalued (per our opening Scoreboard by Dollar Debasement) and the S&P +40.2% overvalued (per our “live” price/earnings ratio initiated a dozen years ago):

“So what you’re saying, mmb, is this sudden S&P ‘crash’ is just peanuts in the bigger picture, eh?”

Squire, throughout the 68-year existence of the S&P 500, the evolving average of its p/e always reverts to its mean.  We’ll spare you the math history, but per the above table wherein we’ve calculated price by p/e as +40.2% too high — assuming earnings growth remains rather muted — price “ought” correct from here by another -28.7%, ultimately placing the S&P in the 3600s.  Remember:  had COVID never happened, regressing the S&P’s growth track puts it today at best in the low 3000s.  But therein lies the good news:  the $7T post-COVID “accounting entry” (by which the S&P made it up into the 6000s) remains in the monetary system:  thus just as swiftly as dough has left the S&P, so too can it go back into the S&P, see?  For the investor, ’tis at present high stress.  For the trader, ’tis as present high times.  Either way, a ferocious “relief rally” for the S&P wouldn’t surprise us a wit.

That said, this next graphic does not portend well for the S&P 500 as it shows a provisional negative MACD (moving average convergence divergence) crossover on the monthly candles.  ‘Course, it would confirm at month-end, (barring first a significant recovery).  Yikes…

 

And as earlier noted with respect to a long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst, we’ve oft referred to the “Look Ma, No Earnings!” crash and/or the “Look Ma, No Money!” crash.  To be sure as we’ve underscored ad nauseam across many-a-missive, earnings have become meaningless, and the amount of money “invested” in the S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) is better than twice the size of the actual readily-available money supply to cover it all.  But in awaiting the now appointed “Tariffs!” catalyst, recall what we penned back on 22 February:  Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid?  Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame… think about it.”  Bingo.

But these past five days were not an ongoing “Bingo!” by Gold’s weekly bars as next shown.  The rightmost bar high-to-low was by percentage (-5.3%) Gold’s worst intra-week loss since that ending last 22 November, whilst on a points basis (-187) the worst since that ending 14 August 2020.  ‘Course year-to-date, again, +15.8% is great.  But Silver’s -15.6% two-day slaughter pushed her ratio from Gold up to 103.5x, the highest reading since 14 May 2020.  Priced instead to the century-to-date evolving average of 68.9x Silver right now would be +50% above her present 29.53 level at 44.38!  GOT SILVER?  More on her in a bit.  Here’s Gold’s graphic:

As to the Economic Barometer, the past week gave it a bit of a boost:  seven of the 12 incoming metrics improved period-over-period, the best standout being March’s ADP Employment data which also beat consensus as well as having February revised upward.  Negatively however, Unemployment picked up a pip whilst both the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services Indices declined.  ‘Course, the obvious lowlight in the graphic is the S&P 500 (red line).  Here’s the year-over-year view:

On to the precious metals daily bars for the past three months-to-date and 10-day Market Profiles.  First we’ve those for Gold, her “Baby Blues” (at left) of trend consistency appearing to run out of puff; in the Profile (at right) we find it mostly populated by overhead resistors as labeled:

Second, there’s the like drill for poor ol’ Sister Silver:  Slaughtered, creamed, annihilated, ’tis one of her worst graphics on record.  So much so, that we present last week’s five trading days using red bars on the left.  As for her Profile, ’tis nothing but resistance on the right.  And specific to these past two days, Silver abandoned her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket in inebriated sympathetic (indeed simply pathetic) decline (-15.6%) with Cousin Copper (-12.8%).  In fact, Silver percentage-wise lost in just two days what Gold has gained year-to-date (+15.8%)!  We can’t bear to look!

We’ll wrap up here for this week with a little personal experience tariff talk.

We (on the very rare occasion) make a purchase that is shipped from the United States.  Our most recent case was $99 worth of a specific popping corn we simply cannot find on this side of The Pond.  The shipping charge was $25, and thus the all-in cost paid to the exporter was $124.

Then came the fun part in order to take receipt of the shipment.

customs tariff of €28 ($29) was levied along with the beloved value-added tax of €35 ($37) for an all-in cost of $190 for $99 worth of popping corn.  Ex-shipping, 40% of the cost went to tariff and tax.

No wonder the “Leader of the Free world” is fired up.  Just don’t let ’em get your Gold!

A team player, our Squire.  Cheers!

…m…

04 April 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time

Sister Silver suffered the worst yesterday amongst the BEGOS Markets: her -8.8% net loss was the white metal’s worst since 11 August 2020; more on the metals and markets in tomorrow’s 803rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Following yesterday’s beat-down, (save for the Bond and EuroCurrencies), we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are again the Metals Triumvirate and Oil; (the Spoo is within same); session volatility is firmly moderate, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Given yesterday’s material moves, the five primary BEGOS components are positioned (in real-time) as follows vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines (see Market Values): the Bond is just over +3 points “high”, the Euro +0.039 points “high”, Gold (despite its being sold) +170 points “high”, Oil -2.95 points “low”, and the Spoo deeply oversold by this metric at -471 points “low”; of course, for the S&P 500 itself, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) still remains up in the silly zone at 37.1x; thus there’s rightly still a long way to fall. The Econ Baro closes its weeks with March’s Payrolls.

03 April 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

The Spoo is presently positioned such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould immediately fall -3.0%; the last time the S&P completed a session down by at least that much was on 13 September 2022 (-4.3%). The Dollar Index is down to its lowest level (102.425) since 09 October. The Bond and EuroCurrencies are currently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Metals Triumvirate, Oil, and Spoo; session volatility is robust with five of the eight BEGOS Markets tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Silver is getting notably sold, -4.8%, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio up to 94.2x; Gold itself is -1.5% and by its Market Value is (in real-time) nonetheless +197 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are March’s ISM(Svc) Index and February’s Trade Deficit.

02 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

The Bond is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our best are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, both Silver’s 8hr Parabolics and 2hr Price Oscillator, plus Copper’s 8hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus its daily Parabolics and 15mn MACD, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Moneyflow. As anticipated, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have in real-time provisionally crossed under their +80% axis suggestive of still lower prices near-term. The Econ Baro awaits March’s ADP Employment data plus February’s Factory Orders. And 20:00 GMT brings the StateSide tariffs address.

01 April 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

Gold (basis June) has made yet another All-Time High at 3177, albeit price has now pulled back to presently be within today’s Neutral Zone; the only BEGOS Market outside (above) of same is the Bond, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond yesterday pierced up through its Market Magnet, whilst Copper has moved below same; Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are rolling over such that they many breach below the key +80% by mid-week, then suggestive of still lower price levels. Oil has furthered our anticipation of its rising, now up into the 71s. Q1 kicks off for the Econ Baro with March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.

31 March 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time

The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traced 129% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s remarkable rally, yet remains wary for some material degree of pullback to unwind the near-term overbought state of price, which in (real-time) is +228 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); moreover the Update also depicts the inconsistant inflation readings, and sees significantly lower levels for the S&P 500 as the year unfolds, with the 4000s in the offing, (which from its present level is only some -10% lower). For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Chi PMI.

The Gold Update: No. 802 – (29 March 2025) – “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 802nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Aware, Stocks Beware

Well!  Can we all say “Gold 3100!”  After all, why stop at 3000?  For this past Thursday as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per Tag Team from ’93): Whoomp! There It Is!” as 3100 June Gold traded, indeed yesterday (Friday) to as high as 3124!

‘Course, from the “Nitty-Picky Dept.”, spot Gold didn’t quite get there, reaching up to only 3085, with the April contract going off the board at 3090.  Yet given our year’s Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262, (let alone the above Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement Gold valuation of 3825), ’tis merely a  matter of time for spot 3100… and beyond!

Regardless (and you knew this was coming):  all the new-found Gold euphoria aside, yes, we remain expectant for some material degree of price decline.  ‘Tis technically so by our BEGOS valuation of Gold depicting it as +173 points “high” (price then always reverting to valuation).  ‘Tis fundamentally so by inflation’s inability to efface toward a “Fed-favoured” pace.  Let’s have a look.

Technically we’ve our year ago-to-date chart of price’s daily closes vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line which assesses Gold’s movement relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500.  As shown, Gold is presently priced at 3090, but the valuation line is 2917:  thus we’ve the +173-point difference which will get closed, aided as well by the smooth line itself being on the rise:

 

Fundamentally for inflation through February, ’tis said you can “pick your poison” per our puke-green table below, wherein:

  • Should you side with The Bureau of Labor Statistics (which calculates both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index), the pace of inflation slowed for the month, the core PPI itself being deflationary;

  • If instead to go with the Fed, The Bureau of Economic Analysis‘ Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in well-ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred annualized rate of +2.0%.  

But:  to average the six annualized measures for February, ’tis magically spot-on at +2.0%  So if you’re an Open Market Committee member, query:  Who to believe?  What to do?  Lower, maintain, or raise?  (To be sure, ’tis FinMedia-verboten to even mention the phrase “Fed rate raise”).  Yet what? No cut? Cue King Crimson crooner Greg Lake from ’69: Confusion will be my epitaph…”  as here’s the table:

Either way, Gold is the momentum play … or is it?  There being but one trading day remaining in March, indeed in Q1, let’s see where the real year-to-date momentum is as the Metals Triumvirate still tops our BEGOS Markets Standings, the podium placers being the red metal (+27%), the white metal (+19%) and the yellow metal (+17%)  “Got inflation?”  Gold aware, stocks beware:  look at last place.  Here’s the whole bunch:

“But with Copper making all-time highs, isn’t that great for the economy, mmb?”

Traditionally, Squire, Copper is said to lead the economy.  ‘Course with “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) dominating the newsflow, Copper naturally gets a surge, initially as a negative given it can increase inflation’s pace, but perhaps more broadly as a positive should manufacturing materially return StateSide and elicit higher real Gross Domestic Product.  But definitely mind Copper as it does tend to lead the price of Gold, the red metal having fallen these last two days in-a-row.

As for the noted cellar-dweller in the above Standings, we’ve the S&P 500 -5% year-to-date.  You may well have read that oft-dubitable Goldman Sachs just reduced their year-end S&P target to 6200.  “Ahh, youth!”  Our sense is to replace their “6” with a “4”.  Still to their credit, that post-COVID $7T continues to slosh about … but are equities finally losing their “only game in town” status?  For those of you scoring at home:  annualized, the riskfull S&P yield is now 1.368%; the riskless three-month U.S. T-Bill’s is now 4.188%.  Even those WestPalmBeachers down there can discern which is better; (well, maybe not…)

“But, mmb, the Bipartisan Policy Center just said the ‘X-Date’ for Treasury default is July-October…”

Squire loves welcoming Wall Street to real life.  And welcome to Treasury, Scott “This we got” Bessent.

Really real life is enjoying Gold about to complete its tenth winning month of the past 13.  On a mutually-exclusive basis, 10 wins out of 13 has occurred but three other times so far this century.  And by the week from a year ago-to-date, below is our graphic of the enduring Gold streak.  Therein, just 18 weeks have been down whilst basically double that — 35 — have been up.  Here’s the Long and Short of it:

And in keeping with our month-end mode, let’s next look at leverage via the year-over-year graphic for the Golden percentage tracks of Gold & Bros.  From low-to-high, there’s Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, both Gold itself and Newmont (NEM) +41%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +52%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +86%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)+92%.  Too, a magnificent charter reader has asked we give special mention to Alamos Gold (AGI) aka “The Agnico of the Mid-Tiers” which +84% year-over-year would be tucked in just below AEM and PAAS.  “Remember the Alamos!”

Near-term for  the precious metals, these are their 10-day Market Profiles featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notable volume apices of the past fortnight are as labeled, the yellow metal (quoted by the June contract) showing support initially at 3114, then more so in the 3068-3055 zone, whilst the white metal’s key supporters are 34.75 and 34.25:

Broad-term for Gold we’ve the 16-year monthly candles across price’s structure.  Remember the old trading axiom that “Triple tops are meant to be broken”?  Oh my goodness…

Thus it again being month-end, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets for the past 21 trading days (one month) along with their grey trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend.  And yields having been a bit on the rise find the Bond’s price in recent demise, albeit gaining a safe-haven Friday bid as the S&P 500 fell from the skies.  Note, too, per the website’s Prescient Commentary a couple of weeks back when Oil was in the 65s that the “Baby Blues” were then heralding a run to the low 70s … et voilà:

So as tomorrow we slide EuroSide to summer hours, let’s close it out for this week with (yet another) shocking stat for the S&P 500.  ‘Course, you regular readers know the two “ongoing-in-perpetuity” shocks of 1) the “live” price/earnings for the S&P now at 40.2x — yes, that’s after Friday’s -2.0% fall — and 2) the current market cap of the S&P now $49.1T versus a “readily available” M2 money supply of less than half that at $21.8T(Is your brokerage preparing its IOUs?)

Here’s our next shock.  Per the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings, again the worst year-to-date loser is the S&P -5.1%.  If we regress by the day from New Year the track of the S&P’s closing price (which currently is 5581), and extrapolate such trend to year-end, the Index then first settles in the 4000s come 12 August, on track to finish the year -25% at 4386.  This varies a bit from Goldman’s 6200, but we tend to notice little things like that.

Because we don’t forget big things like this:

28 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

Both the Bond and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has achieved yet another All-Time High this morning, the June cac thus far trading up to 3124: by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +176 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, a very extreme deviation which can begin to be closed should the “Fed-favoured” inflation of PCE data not be indicative of slowing; ’twill arrive later today for the Econ Baro, and of course, more on it all in tomorrow’s 802nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As for the other primary BEGOS components’ deviations from Market Values, we show both the Bond and Oil as basically right on their valuation lines, the Euro as +0.0312 points “high” and the Spoo as -200 points “low”. As for Copper’s recent robust rally to all-time highs, by Market Trends, the red metal’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are depicting the early signs of having run out of puff. EuroSide, we move forward Sunday to summer hours.

27 March 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve Gold above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst Oil is below same, (but not before having yesterday reached up into our low 70s’ target area); volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s cac volume is moving from April into that for June, with +29 points of fresh premium (in turn inducing a “faux” new All-Time High). As anticipated, by Market Trends the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency confirmed falling below the key +80% axis: thus we look for lower price levels near-term. Silver at present is spot-on its most volume-dominant price (34.25) of the past fortnight, (see Market Profiles). And a day ahead of the “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data, today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.

26 March 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

As was the same case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; by Market Ranges, the red metal already has traced 125% its EDTR to an all-time high at 5.3740; overall session volatility is otherwise light. For our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the current standouts are Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily price Oscillator and 30mn MACD; on a 24-test basis, our current leaders are again the Yen’s daily price Oscillator along with its daily Parabolics, plus both the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics. We’ve previously mentioned the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below the key +80% axis; now provisionally doing the same are those for the Swiss Franc. And for the Econ Baro we await February’s Durable Orders.

25 March 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

At present, the only BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone is Copper; session volatility is quite light with to this point just an average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 28%. The Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency having broken below their key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels to come. The S&P 500, after having been 19 consecutive trading sessions “textbook oversold” finally unwound that condition yesterday; the +1.8% relief rally has now put the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E up to 42.9x; lurking for April/May is a MACD negative crossover on the S&P’s monthly candles, broadly suggestive of further Index lows as the year unfolds. The Econ Baro gets back into gear today with March’s Consumer Confidence and February’s New Home Sales.

24 March 2025 – 08:10 Central Euro Time

The week starts to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Gold Update applauds the yellow metal’s wonderful uptrend — incorporating yet another All-Time High (3065) this past Thursday — however reiterates our wariness for price to pullback by a few hundred points, typical in the past of similar technical near-term “overvaluations”; (of course fundamentally broad-term, Gold remains well-undervalued). As anticipated, the Spoo is getting a good bid such that the S&P 500 may open nearly a full 1% higher: regardless, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.0x and the yield (1.347) less than one-third that of the annualized 3mo U.S. T-Bill (4.185%). Too continues Oil’s recent recovery: by its BEGOS Market Value, ‘twould appear price shall move up through its smooth valuation line as the week unfolds towards the anticipated low 70s. ‘Tis a again quiet day for the Econ Baro, the week’s highlight arriving Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE reading for February.

The Gold Update: No. 801 – (22 March 2025) – “Gold’s Year of the Bid”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 801st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold’s Year of the Bid

Thus far in 2025, ’tis been the year of the Gold bid.  Folks who are clueless on Gold are abashedly asking about it.  “How much is it?”  “How do I buy it?”  “How much is in Fort Knox?” “How do I store it?” “How much is it taxed?” “How do I get it outta the UK?”

Indeed, we too query:  has our having penned 800 Gold Updates finally made the world Gold crazy?  That century-to-date — although the S&P 500 is + 329% (from 1320 to 5668) — that Gold’s growth is triple that at +1,005% (from 274 to 3028)?   ‘Tis clear that this year the Golden lightbulb has suddenly gone aglow and everybody’s excited to give Gold a bid, even wee London:

Naturally, we’re also excited.  Based on the linear regression pace at which Gold is rising so far in 2025, ‘twould reach our year’s forecast high — Golden Goal Three of 3262 — on 07 May:  that’s a mere 32 trading days from now, with then nearly eight months left in the year’s balance!

“I dunno mmb, but if it happens that fast, then what?”

Two generalizations there, Squire. “IF” the low for this year is already in place (2625 on 06 January), Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the “expected yearly trading range” equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy.  Contrarily, stagflation sets in and the Fed is stuck, perhaps even having to raise its FundsRate to slow rising costs, the Dollar then getting the bid away from Gold, which in turn travels toward such downside range in revisiting the 2700s, 2600s, 2500s.  In the meantime, next Friday (28 March) bring February’s “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures.

For as can be the case with markets — excitement breeds near-term excessiveness.  Through this year’s 55 trading days-to-date, Gold (as is its current case) has been “textbook overbought” for 45 of them.  We refer to it as “textbook” as ’tis visible to the trading public at large should they care to access such available mix of standardly-used technical studies, our preferred cocktail consisting of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics.

Better still (albeit far less publicly-viewed) is the website’s BEGOS Markets Value for Gold, which just completed a 52nd consecutive trading day above its smooth valuation line, price next shown as +139 points “high”:

Hardly is 52 days above that line a record (the most in the past 25 years being 75 days); however upon reaching 52 days, price then on average within the ensuing 63 trading days (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is one trading quarter) has fallen -7%.  Thus per Gold having settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 3028 — posting  en route a fresh All-Time High at 3065 — a slide within such -7% vacuum would be some -200 points from here, i.e. relatively in line with our having suggested that the road to Golden Goal Three of 3262 may well first travel through the 2700s-2600s, even to as low as 2507 … just in case you’re scoring at home.  For unlike the Nvidias or Palantirs or Gamestops or even Bitcoins of the world, Gold is not (barring a U.S. Treasury default) going to go straight up:  ’tis too globally liquid for the offers to just “vanish”.

The point is: be thee not discouraged should price pullback a few hundred points, for the ultimate Gold target as ever remains the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value which at present is 3803.  Hence as depicted in the above graphic:  “Near-term, Gold is too high … ‘Course broadly, Gold is too low!”

Either way, Gold’s year-over-year trend remains nothing short (pun!) of amazing!  To wit, Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date astride the ever-rising parabolic Long trend per the rightmost blue dots:

And therein note the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the current 90.3x level being the second-highest weekly close so far this year.  Priced to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 68.8x, Silver — rather than being 33.53 today — would instead be +31% higher at 44.00  “Got Silver?” … (a rhetorical question for our resourceful readers).

From having recently been less resourceful to flatlining this past week is the Economic Barometer.  Oh, there were incoming metrics aplenty:  16 of ’em … of which seven bettered their like reading of the prior period and nine were worse.  The week’s best winner was February’s Existing Home Sales which bettered both consensus and January’s number, such prior month also revised higher.  But the stinkers were March’s National Association of Home Builders Index taking quite a tumble (from 42 to 39), as did the month’s New York State Empire Index (from +5.7 to -20.0).

‘Course, the week’s non-event highlight was the Federal Open Markets Committee’s “sitting on its hands” Policy Statement.  But in conspicuous contrast to the sudden stumble by the Econ Baro, did you read the FOMC’s opening sentence of its Statement?  ‘Tis below embedded:

Not to be overly critical of The Fed, but might its referred “recent indicators” be from last September during which time the Baro — as you can well see — was firmly rising?  After all, you know the long-running saying that “The Fed is behind the curve.”  Perhaps esteemed voting member (and ChiFedPrez) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee could shed some light on such recent “solid pace”.  Anyway, we’ll instead stick with the actual math.

Turning to the math that makes our “Baby Blues”, they are ever-smoothly in synch with Gold’s moves, either up or down.  Such measure of regression trend consistency as below shown on the left is fairly well-paired with price across the past three months, albeit Gold has dropped for two successive days even as the dominant trend is up.  And on the right in Gold’s 10-day market Profile we see 3043 as the highest-volume handle traded these past two weeks, its role at present that of overhead resistance with notable near-term volume support at 2996:

As for poor ol’ Sister Silver, she has declined for three straight sessions, her like graphic from three months ago-to-date below left and Market Profile below right.  Therein, her dominant volume resistor is 34.35:

Gold’s Year of the Bid indeed!  We’re a bit surprised to see the yellow metal moving so swiftly toward Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Through the year’s first 12 weeks, only one has been down:  such stints of 11 up weeks in 12 have only occurred (as a mutually-exclusive basis) on five other occasions so far this century.  The average price fallout following those five instances within the ensuing three months?  -9%, which again “suggests” similar downside to the aforeshown currently streaking Market Value’s “price over valuation differential” that has historically then led to an average -7% drop.  But as we on occasion caution:  “Average is not Reality” especially given Gold’s strong bid this year.  Still as stated, we shan’t be surprised to see Gold revisit the 2700s, etc.

And in Gold’s year of the bid if such pullback must be, better it indeed be prior to our 3262 Golden Goal Three!

21 March 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time

When all eight BEGOS Markets are down, we know the Dollar is up; of note across the sea of red, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency confirmed closing above their key -80% axis: this portends (by fib) a run up to at least the 5800s and potentially the 5900s should the February high-March low have a full Golden Ratio retracement; too, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook oversold” near-term. For Oil, per its “Baby Blues” and Market Magnet, as anticipated, price has moved from the 65s to now being in the 68s with the 69s-low 70s reasonably in the balance. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until Tuesday, this week’s 16 incoming having flat-lined the economic track rather than see it further weaken; more on it all in tomorrow’s 801st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

20 March 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time

The Euro at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets remains light to this hour. Our best correlation currently amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 has (futs-adj’d) moved back above 40 (now 40.2x); the Index’s yield is 1.353% vs. the risk-free 3-month T-Bill’s 4.190%; technically the S&P is now 17 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold” despite fundamentally remaining dangerously overvalued. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with a busy schedule of incoming metrics which include March’s Philly Fed Index, February’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

19 March 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

At present, the Euro is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light to this time of the session. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing above their -80% axis, so as already noted yesterday with respect to its Market Magnet, we anticipate higher Oil levels near-term perhaps up into the low 70s; Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is its 2hr MACD. Elsewhere on that basis, our best currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator as well as that study for 1hr Silver; on a 24-test basis, we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus the daily Parabolics, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the “no change” FOMC Policy Statement.

18 March 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time

A day ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro has of late gone into a skid; to the extent the Fed reacts to fresh data is doubtful such that they likely stand pat as their stance of late is “there is no race to lower rates”. For today at present we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is again light. Oil’s Market Magnet yesterday confirmed upside penetration by price such that we expect higher levels near-term, albeit there are various structural resistors from 69-73. Too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to modestly climb from having been below their-80% axis, so that, too, lends some bullishness to the picture. The 2-day S&P rally has not been kept pace with by the Moneyflow, although the Index remains now 15 days “textbook overbought”; rhus once that unwinds, we may see the next spillover. More February metrics hit the Econ Baro today, specifically Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

17 March 2025 – 08:28 Central Euro Time

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update celebrates its 800th consecutive Saturday edition, still wary of near-term price pullback even as the weekly parabolic trend remains firmly Long; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line Gold is (in real-time) +123 points “high” (see Market Values). At Market Trends, only Oil and the Spoo are in negative linreg; specific to their cac volumes, that for Oil is moving from April into May whilst for the Spoo from March into June. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro (plus Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement); 16 metrics come due, those for today including March’s NY State Empire Index and that for NAHB Housing, plus February’s Retail Sales and January’s Business Inventories.

The Gold Update: No. 800 – (15 March 2025) – “Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 800th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 15 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!

Long-time (really long-time) readers of The Gold Update know that our microphones are just about everywhere as was the case in Rome’s Curia Pompeia (a little Latin lingo there) on this day in 44 B.C.  Let’s roll the tape:

  • Soothsayer:  “Hail Caesar!”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Whaddya got, Soothie…”

  • Soothsayer:  “We who embrace Caesar, whose name is magnificent, whose presence is ever-accessible, who makes our world wonderful, we turn our hearts to thee, oh Caesar…”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Oh just get on with it, Soothie…”

  • Soothsayer:  “Oh great Caesar!  Beware the Ides of March!  For on this very day 2,068 years hence shall come the 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update!”

  • Julius Caesar:  “Soothie…  Get out!”

Following which of course out came the long knives and the rest — as ’tis said — is “histoire”.

Welcome to the 800th Gold Update, our having missed nary a Saturday throughout.  ‘Tis again a “milestone” for us, and we shan’t forget those who’ve substantively got us here, most notably the Mighty Moriarty of 321Gold, along with Goldseiten, Gold-Eagle, Kitco, Investing.com, TalkMarkets, GoldSeek and YOU: the most savvy Gold readers ’round the world.  Our truly heartfelt thanks to everyone.

Moreover, welcome to Golden Goal Two, such “milestone” level of 3000 by the April futures contract having been reached this past Thursday evening @ 20:49 GMT with spot Gold then following yesterday (Friday) morning @ 10:10 GMT.  A doubly-beautiful thAng!

Further, a hardened aspect of The Gold Update these many years is that when we’re way wrong, we so say!  In this case, we’ve of late been anticipating Gold reaching lower price levels, certainly so from the week ending 28 February wherein Gold high-to-low fell -130 points from 2974 to 2844.  Instead, 3000 was just tapped.

Indeed, whilst our Golden Goal Three for the year is still a projected a high of 3262, we’ve this reminder (from 04 January) as to Gold’s potential downside :  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates…2507…”  And should that eventuate, our sense remains it comes prior to 3262 Goo goo g’ joob” –[Lennon, ’67].

But should we remain wrong (i.e. Gold not materially decline en route), ‘twould be great, for 3262 shall then appear in hindsight as having been a modest mandate.

Either way, Gold settled yesterday at 2994 in reaching a new All-Time High of 3017, the Monday-Friday net gain both by points (+76) and percentage (+2.6%) being the best of the year’s 11 weeks-to-date, within which (as aforenoted) only one has been down.

“Which begs the question mmb, is that an 11-week record?  Congrats on 800 by the way…”

Thanks dear Squire:  we couldn’t have made it this far without you.  As for similar 11-week periods with but one (or even none) as down, on a mutually-exclusive basis ’tis happened century-to-date on seven other occasions, the prior case being within the grips of COVID from the weeks ending 29 May 2020 through 07 August 2020.  Gold for that 11-week stint posted a net gain of +18.0%.  This time ’round ’tis +13.5%.  Regardless, as to “The Now”, all looks great in GoldLand:

And by the above weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now eight weeks in duration, the “flip-to-Short” level of 2760 affording Gold 234 points of wiggle room, (albeit the blue dots are now swiftly speeding upward at a rate of +42 points per week).  Still, by the above graphic, again we say, “Gold is looking as good as it gets!”

However:  in measuring Gold by its smooth valuation line, price’s movement relative to those of the other four primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Oil / S&P 500) presently appears some +122 points “high” above that smooth grey line…

…to which price always returns, acknowledging ‘natch that the smooth line itself is in ascent.  So again, some price descent many be in near-term order.  But of broader import — per the opening Gold Scoreboard — price today at 2994 is -807 points beneath the Dollar debasement appraisal of 3801.  Or apropos of this 800th missive, let’s reprise the deserved decree from late great Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold!”  Price upon his 20 November 2015 passing was 1077:  wherever in the Gold ether he now is,  the +180% 10-year gain must be most satisfying.

But suddenly not so satisfying is the state of the StateSide economy, which by the Economic Barometer across the past two weeks has suffered a bit of a “whoopsie…” (technical term).  The marked month-over-month braking in the pace of inflation suggests a slowing of activity, although February’s “Fed-favoured” read via Personal Consumption Expenditures is still two weeks away.  But initially for the month at both the headline and core readings, the Consumer Price Index substantially slowed, whilst the Producer Price Index actually hinted at deflation, the headline number’s pace at zero and that for the core coming in negativeDoes that mean the regular stuff yer now buyin’ this month is cheaper?  Well, maybe not, as the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for March just suffered its third-worst month-over-month drop since COVID.  “Whoopsie!” indeed.  Here’s the Econ Baro:

Specific to the precious metals, ’tis been anything but “Whoopsie!” in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with those for Silver on the right.  For both markets, their respective “Baby Blues” of day-to-day trend consistency just recently breached below the 0% axes, only to then reverse back upward as the 21-day downtrends came to an end:

In next turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), the standout feature is the yellow metal depicting “A dearth of volume support” which is created when price rapidly covers a large range of points.  ‘Tis merely something of which to be aware should price suddenly skid back down to the 2924 volume-dominant support level.  As for the white metal, she sports a bit of a volume gap from her present 34.35 price down to 33.70, but with firmer support in the 33.20-32.90 zone as labeled:

Thus there we are for No. 800.  It being a “milestone” for us in tandem with Golden Goal Two of price having achieved the 3000 “milestone”, let’s go to the stack.  Therein note:  nothing is listed in the 2800s.  So swift has been Gold’s recent rise, that after having settled a total of 59 days in the 2600s and then 30 days in the 2700s, there’ve been but 11 settles in the 2800s, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  Indeed, a word to the wise is sufficient.  (What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is don’t be surprised should selling ensue).  Here’s the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3801
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
2025’s High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 3017 (from 2870) = +147 points or +5.1%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3001 (13 March 2025)
Trading Resistance:  2996
Gold Currently:  2994, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2930
Trading Support:  per the Profile, nothing substantive until 2924
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2760
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2479 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To close it out, we again (as is on occasion a Gold Update tradition) grin over further “FinMedia Freakout!”.  Our FinMedia friends pride themselves on their technical stock market expertise of which they know not just one, but two measures.  They are called “The 200-day Moving Average” and “The 10% Correction”.

In this case, ’tis the latter which came to the fore across this past Thursday’s FinMedia spectrum as a result of the S&P 500 having reached down -10% from its recent all-time high of 6148, (the Index today at 5639).  Rife was the air with panicky hysteria!  From one FinMedia page to the next, the leading heading was nearly identical:  “S&P 500 Enters Correction”.  (Note:  here at deMeadville, the correction commenced three weeks ago upon the S&P futures crossing below their own smooth valuation line as featured daily at the website, hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge).

The good news is, by the time the FinMedia typically figures this out, ’tis oft a fabulous buy signal.  Indeed prior to yesterday’s +117-point S&P rally, we internally texted it ought be bought.  Boom!  Following which came this hilarious rationale courtesy of CNBC:  “Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.”  (We’re curious as to how may hours may be the “time being”).  The Ides of March, indeed.  On verra…

That stated, we still view the S&P as treacherously overvalued en route to a down year.  But counter to that remains the question:  “Where then is COVID’s $7T ‘relief fund’ that all ended up in the stock market gonna go?”

“Which again begs the obvious question, right mmb?”

Better yet, Squire, as a statement:  How about into Gold!

14 March 2025 – 08:32 Central Euro Time

April Gold topped 3000 last evening; spot (currently at a 12-point discount to the futures) has not quite yet made the trip; we’ve expected more of a price pullback which still can materialize; more on it all it tomorrow’s 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from March into that for June; come Monday shall be the same for the Spoo. The FinMedia are all aghast that the S&P 500 has just “has entered a correction”, meaning we expect it to now rebound; by deMeadville’s Market Values, the “correction” began three weeks ago (21 February). The Econ Baro wraps its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

13 March 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

Both the Euro and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading our 10-test basis is the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis are both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. Oil looks poised to move above its Market Magnet: check the website post-close for confirmation thereto, as ‘twould suggest higher price levels near-term after being well down year-to-date; as noted yesterday, Oil is now -4.20 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s PPI.

12 March 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time

The only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone is the Euro; session volatility is light in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are substantively up from year-end; notably that for the Spoo — which was 83 points as of 31 December — is for today 116 points, its highest reading since last 07 August. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as as nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0522 points “high”, Gold +54 points “high”, Oil -5.89 points “low” and the -476 points “low”, the S&P 500 itself now entering a 12th consecutive trading day as “textbook oversold”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s retail inflation, the CPI’s pace by consensus expected to have slowed a pip or two, albeit still above the Fed’s desired annualized rate; too, late in the session (purportedly) comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

11 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

The Euro, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The S&P’s -2.7% decline yesterday was its worst since the -2.9% fall last 18 December, (prior to which was -3.0% last 05 August); obviously the leading aspects of our deMeadville analytics have been well ahead of the selling, technically by the Spoo’s linreg having already rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and fundamentally of course by the ongoing excessive overvaluation of the S&P given lack of earnings substance; by the Spoo’s Market Profile, overhead volume resistance spans the 5748-5797 zone. All that said, the S&P is now 10 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold”. Again, ’tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro ahead of February’s retail inflation (Wednesday) and wholesale inflation (Thursday).

10 March 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

At present we’ve the Swiss Franc and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having traced its first “inside” week year-to-date: our near-term bias remains for lower levels, and in real-time Gold’s linreg has rotated to negative (see Market Trends), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now below their 0% axis; by Market Profiles, Gold’s key line-in-the-sand is the volume-dominant 2927 level; and by Market Values, price in real-time is +66 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro is quiet both today and tomorrow ahead of February inflation data later in the week. Too, the Spoo, Euro and Swiss Franc are due to see their cac volumes roll from March into June come week’s-end.

The Gold Update: No. 799 – (08 March 2025) – “Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 799th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 08 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Gold Goes Inside; Stocks Maintain Slide

Whilst we’ve still our near-term negative bent for the price of Gold, nonetheless let’s reprise this from last week’s missive:  “…one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came…”

And from the prior Friday’s White House brawl to yesterday morning’s RUS/UKR missile-drone attack, such geo-political jitters — in tandem with tariff tantrums — have kept Gold aloft, price settling the week at 2918 for a net five-day gain of +1.8% (+50 points).

Yet, ’twas a so-called “inside week” for the yellow metal, meaning Gold printed both a higher-low but lower-high than in the week prior.  ‘Tis depicted below in the left hand panel wherein the outermost green and red horizontal lines are the prior week’s range and the innermost two this past week’s range, the diagonal slants showing the difference.  Still, in spite of it all, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continued to fall, paired here with the S&P’s folderol and Silver’s attempting a grip on the ball:

“But mmb, that’s more than just S&P folderol ’cause it’s down -6% from its high!”

We’ve on occasion been queried if Squire is paid for such “teeing-up” comments.  (Rather, for the privilege of his presence on this page, he pays us).

But to the point, yes, the S&P 500 (now 5770) has lost -6% of its value from the all-time high (6147) of just 13 trading days ago (19 February).  Yet from our purview ’tis “nuthin’ but noise” given the mighty Index today is +765% above its FinCrisis low of 667 (06 March 2009) as well as +163% over the COVID low of 2192 (23 March 2020).  Thus for you WestPalmBeachers down there, the S&P’s -6% pullback is a statistical irrelevancy.  And as our regular readers know all too well, relevancy shall have returned upon the S&P’s price/earnings ratio (the “live” reading now 41.0x) having reverted to its reasonable mean in the low 20s, (which always has occurred — either up or down — since the S&P 500’s inception 68 years ago in March 1957) And in turn, the otherwise ongoing Investing Age of Stoopid shall have been eradicated.  (Nevertheless, we’ve more on the FinMedia “Panic!” toward today’s wrap).

As to Gold’s ten trading weeks year-to-date, this past one (the rightmost green bar) is the first to be characterized as “inside”.  Again, the inference as Gold continues to work off its extreme overbought condition is price having benefitted from geo-political and tariff trepidation; hence this past week’s buoyancy:

To be sure, Gold’s blue-dotted weekly parabolic remains safely Long.  However, by our BEGOS Markets Values measure (in placing a near-term value on Gold per its movements relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS components, i.e. the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500), price is still some +70 points “high” above its smooth grey valuation line; and of course, the two inevitibly shall eventually meet.  Here they are from three months ago-to-date:

And again as you well know, we fully expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to trade this year, and further our forecast high for Golden Goal Three of 3262.  Yet as the “Not in a Straight Line Dept.” reminds us, we see the route thereto traveling through the 2703-2641 zone, just in case you’re scoring at home.

‘Course, how lovely ‘twould be to be wrong and instead see Gold proceed from here at 2918 right up the road to the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value of 3798.  Highly unlikely anytime soon, although in responding at a gathering this past week to the query “Is Gold now going to 10,000?” we said “No, and likely somewhat lower near-term, yet 4,000 perhaps is possible in two years or so…”

But obviously the bogeyman in the room is inflation — which most broadly is a Gold positive — but intermediately a threat to price should the Federal Open Market Committee resort to raising rates.  The good news there, however, is both retail and wholesale inflation by consensii are expected to have somewhat slowed their February paces from those for January.  Next Wednesday (the Consumer Price Index) and Thursday (the Producer Price Index) shall tell the tale.

Indeed let’s segue to the Economic Barometer which took a bit of a boffing during the week.  Of the 15 incoming metrics, only five improved period-over-period.  Most impressive were January’s Factory Orders which increased from December, that month’s decrease being favourably revised, and which beat consensus.  But the stinker was the backup in January’s Wholesale Inventories, which accumulated over those for December, that month’s depletion revised to a slower pace, and were a bit more bloated than consensus.  Too came the not so rare dichotomy of February’s Payrolls taking a rather severe hit per ADP, but by the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually increased.  “What’s your source?”  Here’s the Baro:

 

Meanwhile, let’s assess the state of the 10-day Market Profiles for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right.  Notably for the yellow metal, price spent much of yesterday’s week-ending session clustered ’round the now volume-dominant 2927 level.  As for the white metal, she settled the week smack on her volume-heavy 32.90 support/resistance bar:

More broadly with respect to Gold’s 300-day moving average across the last 14 years, price generally pulls back when ’tis +20% or higher above that measure (the blue line in the graphic).  Just prior to the start of the current near-term price correction (which began from the All-Time High of 2974 on 24 February), Gold had settled as high as +22.2% above said average; at present ’tis still a lofty +18.4% above same.  So again, we ought not be surprised should Gold further subside:

Toward closing, in light of the S&P 500 (which year-to-date is now down -1.9%, “OMG!”) having just recorded its weakest week (-3.1%) of the ten thus far this year, as we earlier teased, let’s check in with a few of Friday’s “FinMedia Freakout” finales:

Bloomy“Wall Street’s Big Selloff Puts Pressure on America’s Rich Households”  Lovin’ this one, for how many times have we written:  “Marked-to-market everyone’s a millionaire; marked-to-reality nobody’s worth squat”;

DJNw“Most Americans can’t afford life anymore…”  So is DJNw’s assumption here the alternative?  That’s a bummer.

CNBS“The oversold stocks due for a technical bounce after a brutal week.”  Truly ’tis dumbing down of the word “brutal”; we’ve haven’t had “brutal” since March 2020; and from 2008 into 2009, we regularly ate “brutal” for breakfast.  So what leads to “brutal”?  The aforenoted “live” S&P P/E of 41.0x.

“So then is the S&P about to crash, mmb?”

Obviously no one knows, Squire.  What will eventuate over time is the reversion of the S&P’s P/E to a level of normalcy, as earlier cited in the low 20s via1) a doubling in earnings without the stock market rising, or 2) a 40%-50% stock market “correction”, or 3) a“Combination of the Two –[Big Brother and the Holding Company, ’68]

Either way, we wrap with a wry note:  per this penning, there remain two full weeks of winter.  Yet for some reason of absurdity, StateSide folks early tomorrow move their clocks to summer hours.  What that means for The Gold Update is — by adhering to its time-honoured traditional uploading each Saturday at 11:00 PacCoastTime — ’twill be an hour earlier here EuroSide at 19:00 for our next three editions (15, 22 and 29 March) until we then nudge our clocks forward come 30 March.

And specific to next week’s piece, beware the Ides of March, for it brings our 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update

07 March 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

StateSide ’tis February’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro (and late in the session January’s Consumer Credit). At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The S&P 500 remains “textbook oversold” such that a so-called “dead cat bounce” may be warranted; however the Index’s broader technical picture is facing a negative crossover on the monthly MACD that seemingly can confirm into April; given the unsustainably high “live” P/E of 40.4x, the S&P ought deservingly suffer rough sledding at least over the near-to-medium term, especially with the short-term U.S. Treasuries yielding better than triple that of the S&P (4.197% vs. 1.343%). ‘Tis to worthy to note that from the S&P’s March 2009 low, the Index has increased by as much as 822%: thus this 7% pullback is essentially noise; indeed were it not for COVID and the monetary creation thereto, the S&P today (5739) would instead be ’round 3000.

06 March 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time

Presently we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility for this time has calmed to mostly light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve now a positive correlation between the Euro and Gold, which makes sense give the Dollar’s demise notably this week. Copper’s +4.9% net gain yesterday was the largest since 04 November 2022: at Market Trends, Copper’s rally was sufficient to stall the otherwise falling “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. Meanwhile, that measure for the Spoo continues to drop, albeit the S&P 500 itself is now seven days “textbook oversold”; still, the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is a horribly high 43.1x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include January’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories, plus the revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

05 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time

The Euro, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper notably having traced 170% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As has oft been the case of late, we’ve no notable correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our 10-test basis cites the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Parabolics as best, whilst on a 24-test basis we show both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. The Dollar Index has thus far traded today down to its lowest level (105.280) since 11 November, Gold getting a bit of a bid in the balance, albeit to the extent ’tis geo-politically driven, we look for Gold to resume working lower (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus January’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

04 March 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time

Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market’s is moderate, (which you may be noting is the case ’round this time more frequently of late). Yesterday’s whirl back down in the S&P 500 ought not be too much of an eyeopener given the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend having last week rotated from positive to negative, as presently is the stance as well for both Silver and of course Oil over recent weeks; by Market Trends, those for the other five BEGOS components are positive; however Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in freefall as are those for Copper. Too for the S&P per our Moneyflow page, all three time bases (weekly, monthly, quarterly) point to still lower levels ahead for the Index. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with then 13 incoming metrics remaining from tomorrow through the week’s balance.

03 March 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time

At present the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the anticipated fall having commenced for the yellow metal; as written: “…should the present selling become more substantive … ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone…” By Market Values, Gold — after having been better than +200 points “high” above its some valuation line — is now +56 points “high”. Notably too by that same metric, the Bond remains nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro basically in line, Oil -4.55 points “low” and the Spoo -104 points “low”. Despite the S&P 500’s +1.6% Friday rally, the Index is actually mildly “textbook oversold”; more meaningfully however, the overall weak level of earnings doesn’t support the “live” P/E of 44.0x. Q4 Earnings Season is complete with 69% of the S&P’s constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago, an above-average showing over 66% for the past eight years. The Econ Baro begins its week of 15 incoming metrics with February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.

The Gold Update: No. 798 – (01 March 2025) – “Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls”

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 798th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 01 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com

Thank Goodness Gold Finally Falls

Not that we’ve been rooting for Gold to fall, but it being one of the world’s most substantive liquid markets, it implicitly both rises and falls in its interactive role — that reflecting the cost of currency debasement — as one of the five most important financial stores of value along with the Bond (the cost of money), the Euro (or major currency of your choice as the cost of foreign flows), Oil (the cost of the global economic engine) and the S&P 500 (or major market index of your choice as the cost of equity risk).  We of course refer to this high-level grouping as BEGOS:  (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500).

And from one trading day to the next, each of these five markets at the macro level basically receive and distribute money from one another.  In turn, their combined changes in price elicit a valuation for each component as updated daily on the website’s Market Values page.  And if you’ve been paying attention, Gold across the past few weeks was getting wildly up beyond valuation, our having emphatically pointed to such state in the prior two missives.  But now finally facilitated is Gold’s requisite fall, healthy in spite of it all:

‘Course contra to our wary stance — courtesy of the FinMedia —  emerged the “Suddenly Everybody’s a Gold Expert Dept.” proclaiming the price of 3000 being imminent.  And thus it did not happen, oft normal in such market-amateur hysterias.

Rightly instead, Gold as anticipated whirled ’round down to record its third worst week in better than a year, this time dropping -2.8% (-82 points) in settling yesterday at 2867.  Or to put it to music, we cue the Swiss rock band Gotthard from their ’07 song “The Call”: The higher they fly, the harder they fall…”

“And, mmb, that really applies now to the stock market, eh?”

Frighteningly so, Squire.  Indeed to quote George Kennedy in “The Eiger Sanction”  (Universal, ’75):  They won’t even know it’s coming until it hits.”  Or as a valued charter reader of The Gold Update has on occasion queried:  “Does it really matter which snowflake causes the avalanche?”

Then this past Thursday (per our daily Prescient Commentary) came Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency at long last breaking down below their +80% axis (as we’ll later see), which is key in having generated this signal in the end-of-day work spree:

“The obvious question then is, mmb?

Squire, “How low is low?”  Thus here we go:  should the present selling become more substantive from the current 2867 level, ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone.  To be sure:  we still expect Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 to eventually trade, directly or indirectly en route to Golden Goal Three of 3262 as our forecast high for this year.  But as we’ve herein reminded since New Year (Gold then 2639), the road to 3262 can quite fairly pass through the lower 2500s.  Is that to where this down run is heading?  Nobody knows.  But ’tis better to get the year’s low place before the high.

And as we been emphasizing, a wayward wrench dropped into the Gold works is inflation.  Recall our title from two missives ago included the phrase Fed’s Next Hike”.  Apparently “hike” is not an allowable utterance at large.  Rather, press musings oscillate between “cut” and “pause”, with a lean of late toward the latter.  This results from their not implementing math.  Most notably came yesterday’s “Fed-favoured” inflation report for January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures.  The headline number — rather than easing — remained steady at +0.3% whilst the core number’s pace increased from +0.2% to +0.3%.  Here thus is our inflation summary for January:

No, thy eyes do not thee deceive.  Across the six measures, January’s average annualized inflation pace was +4.4%, more than double the +2.0% ultimately desired by the Federal Open Market Committee, nearly double December’s +2.6% rate, and the most since February a year ago.  But absent the use of mathematics, the once mighty Barron’s (which in recent years we’ve designated as a “children’s pool”) ran yesterday with “Inflation Eased…”  Seriously.  No wonder “The Dow” (that Index at which our parents used to look) gained +601 points.

So with the inflation scare in the air, Gold duly dropped as it needed to so do anyway, price as below shown arriving smack on the ascending regression trendline from one year ago-to-date per the weekly bars.  Note the parabolic’s flip to Short price is now 2683, which is quite centered in our aforementioned “how low is low” 2703-2641 zone.  Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the white metal retreating more swiftly than the yellow metal:

Lower Gold to be sure, but ’tis not to be distressed.  For with two months of 2025 now in the books, we go to our BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date to again find the Metals Triumvirate leading the whole pack, Copper now atop the stack +13.4% as the red, yellow and white metals dominate the podium:

And with further specificity to the precious metals, here we’ve the year ago-to-date percentage tracks of Gold along with key of its equities kin, therein finding Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) having doubled at +100%, followed closely by Pan American Silver (PAAS) +91%, and then the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +51%,  Newmont (NEM) +43%, Gold itself +40%, the bunch rounding out with Franco-Nevada (FNV) +36%.  ‘Tis about as good as it gets, even as near-term price decline has set in:

Hardly in decline since Halloween is the Economic Barometer, instead sporting on balance the mildest of rises.  ‘Course as we’ve pointed out across some 27 years of maintaining the Baro, increasing inflation works as a positive influence as it raises the nominal values of many-a-metric.  Either way for this past week’s 11 incoming metrics, five bettered their prior period, five were worse, and steady was the first revision to Q4’s Gross Domestic Product at an annualized  +2.3% pace:

As for yesterday’s S&P 500 big post-White House brawl rally, we eye it as a “dead cat bounce” given the significant deterioration of late in the Index’s Moneyflow regressed into S&P points.  By the website’s S&P Moneyflow page, the Index per this leading indicator “ought be” some 180-to-230 points lower than currently ’tis (5955).  Still, a tip of the cap to just concluded Q4 Earnings Season:  therein, 454 S&P 500 constituents reported, 69% of them bettering their bottom lines from a year ago, which across the past 31 reporting quarters has averaged 66%.  But as we point out ad nauseam, the overall level of earnings remains terribly weak given the price of the Index, the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P now 43.3x.  So stay suspect when it comes to stocks.

Not suspect a wit (per the “SELL” in the table earlier displayed) is the inevitable cascade in Gold’s “Baby Blues”, the red-encircled dot below confirming such signal.  So as is our month-end wont, here we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across the past 21 trading days (one month).  And you know the jingle: “Follow the blues, instead of the news, else lose yer shoes:

Next we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  Clearly at 2867, Gold is better than -100 points below its recent All-Time High (2974 this past Monday), whilst Silver has traveled from the 34s back to the 31s.  Notable volume-dominant prices are as labeled:

And with February now in the books, ’tis once again Gold Structure time by the month across some 16 calendar years.  Take note of “The Infamous Triple-Top” whereby each candle closed well below its respective month’s high, price then declining over the ensuing months:  our rightmost candle now for February has the same characteristic.  The good news “as ever” is Gold by currency debasement remains very cheap indeed.  Nonetheless, here’s the graphic:

So thus far for 2025 we’ve two months down (both net-net up for Gold) and ten to go.  As noted, in the year’s balance remain Golden Goal Two of “milestone” 3000 and our projected Golden Goal Three of 3262 for the high.  Yet ahead of such ascent we’ve this current descent, for which as stated we are thankful given major markets are not unidirectional.  However, one thing to watch is a stirring of geo-political jitters which as you regular readers know can quickly send Gold higher — but generally just briefly — before returning down from whence it came.  Either way, in the words of The Gold Update’s first ever reader away back in 2009 (JGS):  “We’ll watch it together.”

So be a cool cat and stay with your Gold!

28 February 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time

Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices; more tomorrow in the 798th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Along with the yellow metal at present, Copper, Oil and the Swiss Franc are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. The Moneyflow of the S&P 500 continues to be weaker than the down move in the Index itself: yesterday’s change in the S&P was -1.6%, however the Money suggested a change of -3.1%: as this is a leading indicator, we look for further selling in the S&P; mind our S&P Moneyflow page. ‘Tis the final day of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro wraps its week, indeed the month, with February’s Chi PMI plus January’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.

27 February 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate, although like yesterday ’round this time, Oil has traced but 18% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are provisionally (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis, indicative (upon confirmation) of lower prices near-term: recent missives of The Gold Update have been anticipative of a run down; looking at Market Values in real-time, Gold is +107 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. By that metric for the other four primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro as essentially in line, Oil as -6.25 points “low” and the Spoo now as -76 points “low”. The week’s selling in the S&P 500 has actually pushed it down into “textbook oversold” territory, however the Index remains dangerously high by its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 44.6x. Included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q4 GDP.

26 February 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time

The Bond and the EuroCurrencies are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, save for Oil which has traced just 15% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For the S&P 500, similar to that from Monday, on Tuesday whilst the Index fell -0.5%, the Moneyflow was instead suggestive of a -1.6% fall, again indicative of further selling still to come (see our S&P Moneyflow page). The Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend confirmed rotating to negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now having moved below their 0% axis (see Market Trends); should the selling turn more substantive, we’d look in due course for the S&P 5400s. The Bond’s cac volume is rolling from March into June, whilst that for Silver from March into May. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s New Home Sales.