Mark

Moving on from the Fed’s “non-event” -25bp Funds rate reduction, we’ve at present both the Bond and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst all six of the other BEGOS Markets are below same; session volatility is firmly moderate. Specific to the positioning of the five primary BEGOS components vis-à-vis their Market Values in real-time: the Bond is 1^15 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro basically in sync with its valuation line, Gold +208 points “high”, Oil -1.17 points “low, and the Spoo +165 points “high”. Yesterday the S&P 500 posted a second consecutive down day for just the second time across the past 18 trading sessions, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 47.5x. And the Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics that include September’s Philly Fed index and August’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

The Swiss Franc and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the Top Three are all for the Spoo as follows: 4hr Parabolics, 30mn Moneyflow, and 15mn Parabolics; for the 24-test basis we’ve again the Spoo’s 30mn Moneyflow, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 30mn MACD, and Silver’s 4hr MACD. Gold yesterday registered another All-Time High at 3740, but as noted, the metals are coming off so far today. The S&P 500 remains “textbook overbought”. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Housing Starts/Permits. Then at 18:00 GMT we’ve the Policy Statement from the FOMC incorporating a -25bp reduction in the Funds rate.

The EuroCurrencies and the Spoo are presently above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. To be sure, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are now in a fifth trading day of ascent after having declined (as herein written) the six prior sessions which (save for 02 September) essentially found price on the rise: ’tis unusual, that, which is why our deMeadville analytics ought always be judged in context with one’s own financial assessments of trend, etc.; indeed the 21-day linreg trend of the Spoo has been positive from 29 April-to-date. The S&P 500 itself now sports a “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 47.3x, the Index as well characterized as “extremely textbook overbought”. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from October into that for both November and December. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil, plus July’s Business Inventories.

The Bond begins the week at present below its Neutral Zone for today; Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The Gold Update details the yellow metal having achieved a run in less than one year of ten +100-point milestones, the most recent of course being 3700 this past Tuesday; too is stressed the massive overvaluation of the S&P 500 and the notion of it perhaps nearing a crash as Gold gets the cash. That stated, the S&P 500’s MoneyFlow (per our page) is very supportive of the Index’s ascent, even as the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E in real-time is 46.7x. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from September into December. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 14 incoming metrics scheduled, beginning today with September’s NY State Empire Index. Wednesday is the week’s centerpiece of the FOMC vote to reduce the Funds rate by -25bp, an event which already has been “priced-in” to the S&P time and again.

Record highs were recorded yesterday for both the Spoo (6600) and the S&P 500 itself (6593), even as retail inflation via headline CPI doubled its pace from from July’s +0.2% to now +0.4% for August; the month’s core pace was maintained at +0.3%, still ahead of the Fed’s desired 2% annualized target. Although September is notoriously known for being the year’s poorest S&P month, through its eight trading days-to-date ’tis +2.0%. This morning presently finds all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate above today’s respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best correlation currently is negative between the Euro and Oil. Currencies’ cac volume is rolling today from September into that for December. The Econ Baro finishes its somewhat negative week with September’s UofM Sentiment Survey. And tomorrow’s 826th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall of course feature price having tapped the 3700 level.

The Bond is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again light. Yesterday’s +0.3% gain in the S&P 500 was (by moneyflow regressed into S&P points) solely due to one stock, ORCL, which gained 36%; otherwise, the S&P’s breadth was negative (201 up, 301 down, 1 unch). Came too a deflationary PPI read for August (-0.1%) albeit as volatile as is that series, a better read ought be by today’s CPI report. Market Values’ excesses of note include (in real-time) the Bond as +2 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, Gold as +259 points “high” and the Spoo as +104 points “high”; obviously by our “textbook technicals”, the S&P is “overbought”. In addition to retail inflation for the Econ Baro, included late in the session is August’s Treasury Budget.

Gold, after achieving yet another All-Time High yesterday (3715) is at present (3681) above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light with key inflation data pending these next two days. The S&P 500, whilst not exceeding its all-time intraday high (6533 last Friday), settled yesterday at an all-time closing high of 6513. For the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having in real-time stopped their descent; however that doesn’t preclude significant market downside it being September and the S&P “priced to perfection” incorporating a Fed rate cut. Still as noted, the final two pieces in the Fed’s inflation puzzle come today via August’s PPI which spiked in July, and tomorrow for the CPI which may well be upwardly affected by the July PPI as it leads the CPI by a month. Mind the Econ Baro.

Oil is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Gold’s run of All-Time Highs is furthering itself, trading thus far up to 3699; Silver is lagging in price, albeit is still north of 40 having reached 42.07 in this session, (Monday’s high having been 42.36). At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil for which its 21-day linreg trend is flat, all other seven BEGOS components are in uptrends; however specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are (in real-time) falling for a sixth consecutive trading day as such uptrend becomes less positive; too by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +101 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Specific to the S&P 500 itself, its futs-adj’d P/E is 44.7x and the yield 1.190%; the “risk-free” annualized 3-month T-Bill’s yield compared at 3.928%. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

Presently, both Copper and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update notes yet another All-Time High for the yellow metal (3656) from Friday, price having modestly come off a bit today (3634); however by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +241 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; still per Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” (as too are those for Silver) of linreg consistency continue to climb. The Economic highlights of an otherwise fairly quiet week for the Econ Baro are Wednesday’s PPI for August and CPI on Thursday: we’ll see if July’s PPI inflation spike leads into a higher CPI for August. Else, the poor employment data as detailed in The Gold Update certainly secures a Fed rate cut come 17 September. Late in today’s session we’ve July’s Consumer Credit.

Basis the Spoo (6527) adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 would open at an all-time high come 13:30 GMT, given yesterday’s poor ADP data “ensuring” a Fed rate cute (17 Sep). At present, the Spoo is above its Neutral Zone for today, as the other BEGOS Markets, save for the Swiss Franc and Oil being within same; session volatility is light-to-moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is +0^28 “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro essentially in sync with its valuation line, Gold +225 points “high”, Oil -2.30 points “low” and the Spoo +137 points “high”. Is Gold again getting ahead of itself? More on that in tomorrow’s 825th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. In the interim, the Econ Baro awaits August’s payrolls data, wherein we’ll see if bad continues to be good for the S&P.

Each element of the Metals Triumvirate is presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, noting that Gold — after having traded yesterday up to another All-Time High at 3640 — has today already traced 106% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Currently 3592, Gold is (in real-time)+210 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are in real-time falling for a third consecutive session. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our current leaders are the Spoo’s 60mn Price Oscillator, and both Copper’s 2hr Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics; for the 24-test basis they are the Euro’s 1hr MACD, plus Silver’s Parabolics on both the 4hr and 6hr timeframes. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include (ahead of tomorrow’s key Labor report) August’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, July’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

We’ve presently the Bond, Copper and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate; watch over the ensuing days our Market Ranges page for EDTRs to expand. The Spoo yesterday recovered the bulk of its intra-session loss; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency dropped as they are further so doing in real-time today: this is indicatively leading of the uptrend beginning a rotation from positive to negative perhaps during the course of next week; see our post yesterday on “X” ( @deMeadvillePro ) as to how low the S&P looks to go. Gold continues its run of All-Time Highs, thus far today reaching 3617, albeit today Silver has not been participating with Copper as noted being down. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s Factory Orders; then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, Gold having furthered its All-Time High to 3578 and Silver having traded up to one pip below 42.000 at 41.995; also above its Neutral Zone is Oil and the Bond is below same; volatility for the combined two days is largely robust, albeit the Spoo has been the least rangy of the bunch in tracing only 53% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) given the absence of the S&P 500 not trading yesterday. As stocks commence their historically-worst month, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P is 44.7x and by Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) +101 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro begins its week with August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.

Gold starts September with a fresh All-Time High up to 3554; The Gold Update emphasizes Silver’s recent run, price this morning up to as high as 41.64. Both precious metals along with Copper, the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present all above today’s Neutral Zones; the Bond is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust into what is a two-day session given the StateSide holiday. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best correlation remains positive between the Euro and Gold.  Staggered holiday halts (save for the EuroCurrencies) begin from 17:00 GMT, the all-in Tuesday session resuming across the board at 22:00 GMT.

At present we’ve Copper above its Neutral Zone for today; all the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is expectedly light ahead of July’s PCE data which shall be a key determinant (12:30 GMT) as to the FOMC’s 17 September rate decision. A reduced “core” reading of +0.2% ought spike the Spoo to still further record levels, whereas a +0.4% would initiate selling; consensus calls for +0.3%. The S&P 500 yesterday settled above 6500 (6501.86) for its first time, albeit the MoneyFlow for the session actually was negative, (see S&P MoneyFlow); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is now 46.0x. Silver seems to be making a bid to trade at $40/oz., a level not seen since 21 September 2022: indeed, Silver’s “high if an up day” for this session is 40.26; either way, more on Silver in tomorrow’s 824th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. In addition to the PCE, the Econ Baro also awaits July’s Personal Income/Spending, plus August’s Chi PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey.

Both the Bond and Silver are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-best basis all pertain to the Swiss Franc: its 15mn MACD, 15mn Moneyflow and 30mn Parabolics; on a 24-test basis the leaders are currently again the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow, plus the Bond’s 30mn MACD and Gold’s 6hr parabolics. The shorter time frames of these leading Rhythms reflect the narrowing EDTRs (see Market Ranges) of late as the “Dog Days of August” wind down before what we see as a chaotic September in the offing, especially with respect to extreme equities’ overvaluation and a return to reality. Amongst today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics are July’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q2 GDP.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none the the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s 27-point gain in the S&P 500 was almost all NVDA (in regressing its moneyflow contribution into S&P points): in other words had the stock been “unch”, too would have been the S&P; NVDA is currently 7.791% of the S&P with a market cap 52x its balance sheet net worth; whilst we’re really not stocks-specific, ’tis well known the company’s earnings are released post-session today, just as Friday shall have all eyes on the “Fed-favoured” PCE for July. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 45.8x and the yield 1.197%. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

The Bond at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is moderate, with Gold notably active having already traced 94% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) before having now returned to its Neutral Zone. The Bond’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) has provisionally rotated from positive to negative, in line with increasing inflation concerns such that there is no guarantee of a 17 September FedFunds rate cut, (between now and then there being the PCE, PPI and CPI). At Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve no extreme deviations. Copper’s cac volume has rolled from September into that for December; following suit over the next day or two shall be Silver and the Bond. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Consumer Confidence and July’s Durable Orders.

In commencing the week we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having just recorded its narrowest trading week of the year-to-date, even in the euphoria of an “assumed” FedFunds cut come 17 September, our stance to which is far more skeptical as inflation seemingly is increasing: next Friday’s PCE report for July may instill discouragement for the S&P which rallied last week to within two points (6479) of the all-time high (6481). ‘Tis a fairly busy week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with July’s New Home Sales.

Presently we find the Euro along with Gold below their respective Neutral Zones for today, the Dollar continuing to get a bid throughout the week; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, and volatility — not surprisingly ahead of the FedChair’s address (14:00 ET) — is quite light. Equities may not take kindly to lack of affirmation for a FedFunds rate cut; clearly July’s PPI spike is an inflationary concern upon which we’ll again address in tomorrow’s 823rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Should the S&P 500 “let go” over the ensuing trading days, there is a structural support “island” spanning from 6059 down to 5767, the mid-point of which is 5913; instead should the FedChair put a rate cut on the table, we’d expect the S&P to resume rallying. The Econ Baro concluded its week yesterday, as posted on its page.

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is very light. Despite the S&P 500 having made “lower lows” for three days in a row, the Index nonetheless remains technically “textbook overbought”, and obviously by any fundamental yardstick, dangerously overvalued, the fut’s-adj “live” P/E now 44.8x. Do mind an eye on the S&P MoneyFlow page: the outflow in recent days has been notably larger than the decline in the Index itself, the cumulative regressed differential for the past five sessions being -282 more flow points than actual S&P points lost; again, this is a valued leading indicator for lower levels ahead. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is currently positive between the Euro and Gold. And the Econ Baro concludes its own week today with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index, plus July’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Presently, only the Spoo is outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets to this time of day remains lights. Ahead of the “Friday Fed”, the S&P 500 is seemingly a bit worried of a rate cut not being soon on the table, unless July’s PPI spike was a “one-off”; the Spoo (6417) has found its Market Profile support area ’round 6414 basically holding; should 6400 break, the next volume-supportive area is 6372-6368. By our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, the best on a 10-test basis are currently the Bond’s 30mn Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s daily Price Oscillator and Silver’s 4hr MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator, the Bond’s 15mn MACD and Oil’s 8hr MACD. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro; then late in the session we’ve the FOMC’s Minutes from its 29-30 July meeting.

Silver is presently the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is again light, as has become the overall state of the BEGOS components throughout the trading day: first they’ve been on hold for UKR at White House, then for UKR allies at White House, and next at week’s-end for FedChair at Jackson Hole; thus again, the Dog Days of August are in full swing. For the Spoo (currently 6459) by its Market Profile, the volume-dominant overhead resistor is 6468, whereas it appears as “nothing but air” from here down to 6414, were some selling to ensue, albeit we don’t see much directional impetus either way until the Friday’s Fed is out of the way. Still, the S&P 500 remains beyond extremely overvalued, the “live” (fut’s adj’d) P/E 46.2x at this moment. July’s Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.

The week begins with, at present, all eight BEGOS Markets inside their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update speaks to its typical “seasonal sluggishness” as we now laze through the Dog Days of August; both the weekly and daily parabolic trends for Gold remain Long, however the latter has little downside room with which to work: currently 3393, the daily “flip-to-Short” price for today is 3365, well within range given’s Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 48 points. Q2 Earnings Seasons has concluded: for the S&P 500, whilst 79% of the constituents beat estimates, 67% actually improved from Q2 a year ago; that’s a pip above the average of 66% generally improving from 2017-to-date. For the Econ Baro ’tis a fairly muted week, starting today with August’s NAHB Housing Index.

Both the Euro and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is again light. The Spoo has made another all-time high this morning such that should the current area hold, ‘twould pull the S&P 500 up to a record high at its open. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency confirmed closing below their key +80% axis: we thus sense a run from here (114^31) down at least into the very low 114s if not the mid-113s: July’s very inflationary PPI ought make it clear for no rate cut perhaps through the balance of this year. By correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and Oil, the latter for which cac volume is rolling from September into that for October. 9 metrics come into the Econ Baro today, notably including August’s NY State Empire Index and the UofM Sentiment Survey, July’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus June’s Business Inventories. Too, ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Yesterday, further all-time highs were recorded by both the Spoo (6503) and S&P 500 (6480). By Market Rhythms (10-test basis) our top five for pure swing consistency currently Silver’s 4hr MACD, 4hr Parabolics and 1hr Price Oscillator, plus the Euro’s 2hr Price Oscillator and 30mn Parabolics. Following Gold’s Swiss tariff “Spike n’ Plunge” last Friday-Monday, trade of the yellow metal has been extremely subdued in terms of daily range: Gold’s EDTR (see Market ranges) for today is 51 points; however, Tuesday’s actual range was only 32 points and yesterday’s just 30 points. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include wholesale inflation for July via the PPI.

All-time highs have been recorded for both the Spoo (6475) and S&P 500 (6447), the latter’s “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 47.1x. Presently we’ve the same BEGOS Markets’ status as was the case ’round this time yesterday: Silver is above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst the other seven components are within same, and volatility again is quite light, (again with Silver posting the largest EDTR [see Market Ranges] tracing of 52% to this point, the average for the whole bunch being but 27%). Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS entities in real-time: the Bond is +1^07 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro basically in sync with same, Gold +47 points “high” despite its recent pullback (both the daily and weekly parabolic trends still being Long), Oil +4.30 points “low” and the Spoo +159 points “high”. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 12 incoming metrics Thursday through Friday; and three days remain in Q2 Earnings Season.

Silver is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is quite light: the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point indeed being that for Silver at 58%, the average for all the BEGOS components thus far just 29%. At Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” have in real-time just kinked lower, albeit are still above the key +80% axis: a break below that level would likely bring still lower prices; too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to weaken despite the on balance positive price track since last week’s low (6240); by Market Values, the Spoo in real-time at 6402 is +103 points above its smooth valuation line. And today the Econ Baro gets its own week underway with July’s retail inflation via the CPI, plus late in the session comes the Treasury Budget, (which for June was a surplus, but is expected for July to have returned to deficit status).

At present we’ve both the Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights the weekly parabolic Long trend having now been joined by the daily parabolic Long trend; however Friday’s Swiss tariff price spike pierced Gold’s upper BollBand, such that some natural price retraction (as already we’ve seen) is natural prior to price moving on toward its next All-Time High, which by the December contract would be above 3586; and by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are higher still in real-time. The Econ Baro, although quiet today, awaits 15 metrics as the week unfolds. And Q2 Earnings Season moves into its final week.

As expected, Gold confirmed its daily Parabolics flipping to Long per yesterday’s close, following which at this morning’s open price briefly swiftly spiked from 3488 to 3534, which by the “continuous contract” is a new All-Time High; more of course in tomorrow’s 821st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. For the present, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is the Euro; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate, aided by Gold having already traced 111% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday’s MoneyFlow into the S&P 500 was +1.5% vs. the actual Index’s change of just +0.1%: this has been a hallmark of Q2 Earnings Season wherein “estimates” quite regularly are being beaten, even as actual earnings improvement has been but average; there remains one more week to run for Q2 results. As noted yesterday, the Econ Baro already has concluded its week., which on balance was negative.

Gold, Silver and Oil all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light. For the Precious Metals, Gold (3449) is above its most volume-dominant Market Profile supporter (3431), whilst Silver (38.25) is just below its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor (38.30); on a broad-term basis, the white metal remains attractively priced vis-à-vis the yellow metal give the Gold/Silver ratio now 90.1x; on a 10-test basis for pure Market Rhythm swing consistency the best for Gold currently is its 15mn Price Oscillator, whereas for Silver ’tis her 4hr MACD. Our best overall Market Rhythm on a 10-test basis is the Swiss Franc’s 6hr Moneyflow, and on a 24-test basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics which likely confirm a flip from Short-to-Long at tonight’s settle. The Econ Baro concludes its week today (Thursday) with five incoming metrics, notably including Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs along with Wholesale Inventories for June; then late in the session comes that month’s Consumer Credit.

We’ve presently both Oil and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is very light, the average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point just 26%. At Market Trends, 3 of the 8 BEGOS Components are in 21-day linreg up trends: the Bond and Gold with reinforcement as their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency too are rising, along with the Spoo, albeit there the “Baby Blues” continue to drop; the other five markets are thus in downtrends. As to the Bond’s rally of late, by both Market Values and Market Magnets, price is better than 1.5 points above those measures, although that is not what we’d consider an “extreme” deviation; but the Bond has been getting the bid given its far better yield over the S&P 500 which price-wise we consider to view as close to the edge. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro; and this “average” (by improvement) Q2 Earnings Season has another 8 trading days to run.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings to this moment range from 47% for the Swiss Franc down to just 10% for Copper. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation currently is positive between the Bond and Gold: per their Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the Bond’s best for pure swing consistency is presently the 12hr MACD, whilst for Gold ’tis the 30mn MACD; and by Market Values, both the Bond and Gold are above their smooth valuation lines. The Econ Baro looks to July’s ISM(Svc) Index, plus June’s Trade Deficit.

The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. The Gold Update reviews the recent turbulence within The Metals Triumvirate, plus assesses if the S&P 500 has at long last reached a significant turning point to substantively lower levels, albeit as noted the Spoo is rising thus far today even as its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in full plunge (see Market Trends); currently 6291, the Spoo’s Market Profile support is 6264 with major overhead volume-dominant resistors at 6345, 6371 and 6406. Two weeks remain in Q2 Earnings Season with year-over-year quarterly improvement just a tad below average. And ’tis a relatively quiet week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with June’s Factory Orders.

The Swiss Franc is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Although the S&P 500 recorded a third consecutive modest down day yesterday, per our page of the Index’s MoneyFlow, such measure remains positively robust, despite our overwhelming sense of a significant correction being nigh. In real-time at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have again broken below the key +80% axis: recall their last so doing (18-22 July) was an unusual “failed signal” for this otherwise reliable leading indicator of near-term market direction. As for correlation within the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is negative between the Euro and Oil. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with July’s Payrolls data, ISM Index and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Construction Spending. And with essentially two weeks remaining in Q2 Earnings Season, S&P 500 year-over-year quarterly improvement is now up to 66%, which is an average rate, the fly in the ointment of course being the harrowingly-high “live” P/E at a futs-adj’d 47.5x.

Copper is further falling this morning: netting a loss yesterday of -18.3% following tariff implications, the red metal is now down an additional -5.1%, obviously below its Neutral Zone for today, as is Oil; above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn of the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: we’ve the Bond basically in sync with its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.026 points “low”, Gold as -13 points “low”, Oil as +1.84 points “high”, and the Spoo as +258 points “high”; the S&P 500 itself is now 26 consecutive days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d P/E now a whopping 48.0x. ‘Tis a key inflation day for the Econ Baro featuring for June “Fed-Favoured” PCE data, plus Personal Income/Spending; too due is July’s Chi PMI and Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

As was the case ’round this hour yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are presently within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is light. By Market Trends, yesterday both Silver and Copper confirmed their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency having fallen below the key +80% such that we anticipate lower prices near-term. Per Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our best on a 10-test basis currently is the Swiss Franc’s 6hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics. The S&P 500 despite yesterday’s mild down session nonetheless recorded a fourth consecutive day as being “extremely textbook overbought”: with so much on the table through the balance of this week, we expect the Index to crack at any time. And today, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ADP Employment data, June’s Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2 GDP, which — give the steep decline in the Baro notably for April and May data — shan’t be up to the +2.5% consensus expectation. Then come 18:00 GMT is the FOMC’s Policy Statement within which there shan’t be a FedFunds’ rate change.

All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light with 18 Econ Baro metrics plus the FOMC in the balance of the week. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for December with +57 points of fresh premium. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through its last 24 sessions, indeed “extremely” so for the past 3: we sense the Index is very close to a significant correction, especially with all that’s on the able as noted over these next four days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is currently 47.7x and the yield 1.204% vs. the 3-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.235%. The Econ Baro gets its data parade rolling today with July’s Consumer Confidence.

Presently the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neural Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. The Spoo gapped up some +21 points at the open on tariff resolution: that puts the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at of the S&P at now 47.7x. The Gold Update confirms price’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long, the opening price of the new stint effective this morning’s opening trade at 3321; acknowledged therein is Gold’s negative MACD stance also on the weekly timeframe, but that its performance has been a net failure per the last five signals, whereas the last five parabolic Long trends have been a net success. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 metrics due, however none for this session.

Gold is presently below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and again volatility is light. The Spoo continues to make all-time highs, today (to this point) having reached 6421; currently at 6414, accounting for Fair Value (+36) would pull the S&P 500 higher still at its opening to 6378, just short of its all-time high yesterday of 6381. The S&P is now “extremely textbook overbought” meaning that each of its BollBands, RSI and Stochastics are stretched as such; this last occurred just on 03 July, the following trading day (07 July) then finding a intraday -78-point drop in the S&P. Tomorrow’s 819th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite the weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long despite price intraweek having dropped nearly -100 points high-to-low. And the Econ Baro closes out its mild week with June’s Durable Orders.

Both Gold and Silver are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Currently our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold. We continue to monitor Market Trends’ “Baby Blues” for the Spoo which have popped back above the key +80% axis: but by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +269 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is now “textbook overbought” through its last 21 days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 47.0x even as Q2 Earnings are thus far underperforming their average year-over-year pace of improvement. Today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include June’s New Home Sales.

Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend has — after 10 weeks — provisionally flipped to Long as 3449 traded early on at 00:21 GMT; confirmation comes at Friday’s settle, (barring 3123 unlikely trading in the interim). Presently, we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. For the S&P 500, not recognizable in yesterday’s +0.1% gain was a cap-weighted -$62B drain alone from NVDA: mind our S&P Moneyflow page. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have exceptionally in real-time lurched from +76% to +81%: however, they soon ought well sink sub-80% toward price selling off. Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our leader in the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis we additionally note the Spoo’s 15mn Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD. June’s Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.