Mark

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday’s -1.5% drop in the S&P 500 pales in comparison to its actual monetary outflow which was equivalent to a -11.5% S&P drop: remember, this is a leading indicator suggestive of still lower levels near-to-mid-term for the S&P. The Bond has performed splendidly as foreseen by its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) some two weeks ago. The Metals Triumvirate took quite a thumping yesterday, Silver notably so as the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x (90.3x in real-time); the current edition of The Gold Update mentioned the possibility of Gold “dropping like a stone”, and so it did to start the week with the FOMC and then key inflation data in the balance; nonetheless, Gold’s fresh weekly parabolic Long trend offers some 200 points of downside protection before such trend would reverse. The Econ Baro awaits January’s Consumer Confidence and December’s Durable Orders.

Save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone), “red” is the watchword to begin the week for the seven other BEGOS Markets, all (save for Oil) at present below their respective Neutral Zones; of note, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all down better than -1%. Session volatility is firmly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short-to-Long, whilst citing three key levels for which to watch: 2802 (the next All-Time High), 3000 (as a “milestone”), and then — however not necessarily on this Long run — 3262 as our forecast high for this year (see 04 January’s edition). By Market Values, the Spoo in real-time has provisionally crossed beneath its smooth valuation line: if confirmed by close, we’d anticipate the Spoo revisiting at least the 5900s, (which obviously is but within a day’s trade from here, distance-wise). ‘Tis a key data week for the Econ Baro: mind inflationary readings from both Q4 GDP (Thursday) and the December’s PCE (Friday); today brings December’s New Home Sales.

Save for the Spoo, the seven other BEGOS Markets are higher, within which save for Oil, the other six are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; (thus obviously the Dollar Index is lower); session volatility is firmly moderate. As anticipated, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80%: with price presently in the mid-74s, we ought think at least the 72s are due near-term; by Market Rhythms for Oil, our best currently for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is the 1hr Price Oscillator. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) yesterday recorded a “Hobson Close” in settling on its high trade for the session; thus a lower opening later today wouldn’t be untoward. And the Econ Baro concludes its quiet week, incoming metrics including December’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for the Bond, the seven other BEGOS Markets are lower, those presently below today’s Neutral Zones being Silver and Copper; volatility is quite light. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, we’ve: the Bond nearly -3 points “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.0095 points “low”, Gold +90 points “high”, Oil +4.43 points “high” and the Spoo +49 points “high”. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high yesterday (6101): the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 47.9x and the Index is moderately “textbook overbought”. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally dropped below the key +80% axis, which if confirmed at close suggests still lower price near-term. And the Econ Baro continues its muted week, the only metric due today being last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

GOLD: its weekly parabolic trend as anticipated has provisionally flipped from Short-to-Long; (confirmation comes at week’s settle). For the BEGOS Markets at present, both Copper and Oil are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six components are within same, and volatility is light. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) remain above the key +80% axis, but are kinking lower in real-time. Looking at Market Rhythms, our 10-test leaders for pure swing consistency are currently Gold’s 15mn MACD, 30mn Parabolics, and 2hr MACD, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics, the Euro’s 4hr MACD and Silver’s 4hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis we’ve still the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator and the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits December’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” as the Baro leads them) Indicators for which the consensus is flat (makes some sense given the Baro’s having been essentially flat these past few months).

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues with at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver atop their Neutral Zones whilst Copper and Oil are below same, thus leaving Gold and the Spoo within; volatility is robust (again this covers two days) with only the Spoo not having (yet?) exceeded 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Bond’s “Baby Blues” are accelerating higher: price now 113^24 is up into structural resistance ranging from 113^02-114^23; however should that be eclipsed, it brings to the table a potential run toward 116^08 as first herein mentioned on 31 December per the Bond’s Market Profile at that time. Mind too the “Baby Blues” for both Gold and Oil as such metric for both markets is now above +80% but price beginning to come off a bit; Gold has yet to reach the 2759 weekly parabolic flip-to-Long level. Q4 Earnings Season starts picking up its reporting pace today.

Given the StateSide holiday, the BEGOS Markets enter a two-day session for Tuesday settlement with at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their respective Neutral Zones; none of the other four components are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price having come just four points away from flipping its weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long: the hurdle price to so do this week is 2759 and today’s high already is 2955; we thus expect the provisional flip to Long. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed moving above the key -80% axis, so higher price levels ought be in the offing near-term. Similarly for Oil, we’re watching for its “Baby Blues” to break below the +80% axis from which we’d anticipate lower prices. ‘Tis a very light week for th Econ Baro with just four metrics due commencing on Wednesday; thus Q4 Earnings Season shall get the fundamental hat-tip: thus far ’tis been excellent for the S&P 500 given that 20 of the 23 companies having reported have beaten their bottom lines of a year ago; problematic of course is the “live” P/E remaining dangerously high (in futs-adj’d real-time) at 47.1x.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Yesterday, Gold nearly eclipsed the week’s parabolic (2763) which would flip such weekly trend from Short-to-Long: Gold’s “high if an up day” for today is 2775, so ’tis within range to still get there; more in tomorrow’s 792nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” in real-time are above the key -80% axis; should that be confirmed on close, we’d seek higher Bond prices near-term with the 114s in mind; we’d mentioned the 116s a few weeks back, however they’ve since come off the Bond’s 10-day Market Profile: the low 113s to high 114s now appear initially resistive. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with December’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.

Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics, too Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; on a 24-test basis we’ve again for the Yen both its daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator. Mind at Market Trend’s the Bond’s “Baby Blues” as they’re (finally) making an up move: a confirm above the -80% axis would be suggestive of still high prices. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, its eight incoming metrics including January’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indexes, December’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and November’s Business Inventories.

The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. We’ve noted the last few weeks the ongoing low level of the Bond’s “Baby Blues” for trend consistency (see Market Trends) as we continue to await their breaking above the -80% axis which would then be indicative of higher price levels near-term; as for the whole BEGOS bunch by trend disposition, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo all are in 21-day linreg downtrends, whilst the Metals Triumvirate along with Oil are in uptrends. Core wholesale inflation for December (PPI) was flat; today the Econ Baro looks to the month’s retail inflation (CPI); due too is January’s NY State Empire Index. And late in the session comes the release of the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Notably for Gold, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been decreasing: ’twas in the upper 40s in late November whereas today’s expectation is 35 points; the opposite is true for the Spoo, which in mid-December was as low as 42 but is 87 points for today. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly -5.5 points “low” relative to its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -1.0195 points “low”, Gold as +25 points “high”, Oil as +9.08 points “high”, and the Spoo as -144 points “low”. December’s inflation puzzle starts today for the Econ Baro at the wholesale level with the month’s PPI; (too, still due from yesterday is the Treasury Budget).

The week begins with at present the Bond, Euro, Gold and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is well-moderate en route to becoming robust as the day unfolds: indeed Oil already has traded in excess of 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to the yellow metal’s nearing the end of its weekly parabolic Short trend, (now entering its tenth-consecutive week as such), barring overly StateSide inflationary data due both tomorrow and Wednesday; too from a short-term trading perspective, our report highlights the recent “in hindsight” success of Gold’s one-hour Price Oscillator as a trading study to monitor. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from February into that for March. And ’tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 incoming metrics on the slate, beginning today with December’s Treasury Budget.

Gold is presently the sole BEGOS Market above its Neutral Zone for trading: price is over 2700 for the first time since 13 December. The balance of the BEGOS components are within today’s respective Neutral Zones, and volatility is light. By Market Profiles, the Spoo (5947) is trading just below its most dominantly-traded price by volume across the past fortnight of 5951; the Euro (1.3200) is nearly on same (1.0330). For correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the current best has shifted from being positive Euro/Spoo (see 08 Jan comment) to now negative Oil/Spoo. And at Market Trends, Copper’s linreg has (in real-time) provisionally rotated to positive: of the eight BEGOS Markets, the only other component with positive linreg remains Oil. The Econ Baro awaits January’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus December’s Payrolls data (per Labor).

StateSide equities are closed today, however the BEGOS Markets are running with early closures for both the Spoo (14:30 GMT) and Bond (18:15 GMT). At present, both the Bond and Copper aabove up their respective Neutral Zones for today; the Euro is below same, and volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms: on a 10-test basis, the best of the bunch are currently the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics and 15mn MACD, along with the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator; the latter two also rank best on a 24-test basis. And whilst ’tis too soon to get a read on Q4 Earnings Season, of the 20 companies having thus far reported — none of which are S&P 500 constituents — 70% (14) have beaten “estimates”, but only 50% (10) have actually bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P at this instant is 45.9x.

All eight BEGOS Markets at this moment are above water; the sole one above its Neutral Zone for today is Copper; session volatility is quite light. At Market Trends, we still await the Bond’s
“Baby Blues” to turn the corner up through their -80% axis. Too, per correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best currently is positive between the Euro and Spoo. Yesterday, the S&P 500 dropped a net -1.1%; however its Moneyflow suggested a fall of -3.8% to be more in order: as this is a leading indicator, we look for lower S&P levels near-term; the Spoo (currently 5960) by its its Market Profile shows 5935 as its last bastion of near-term support. The Econ Baro looks to December’s ADP Employment data, plus November’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit; with the StateSide equities not trading tomorrow, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims also come into the Baro today. The FOMC’s 18/19 Meeting Minutes shall be released.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is again pushing toward moderate. By Silver’s Market Rhythms on the daily period, both the Parabolics and MACD triggered Long signals effective today’s open (30.485). We’ve not mentioned a primary BEGOS Markets’ correlation in recent weeks given the components have been rather scattered through transition into New Year; that noted, by Market Trends, (still save for Oil) the other seven markets remain in 21-day linear regression downtrends; therein we continue to monitor the Bond’s “Baby Blues” in awaiting their moving above the key -80% axis; indeed by Market Values, th Bond (in real-time) is better than -4.5 points below its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s ISM(Svc) Index and November’s Trade Deficit.

Both the Bond and Copper are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point is pushing towards moderate: all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, along with Oil, have already exceeded 50% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites our selected high for this year: 3262 using the “expected yearly trading range” method; that noted, Gold still continues to run its weekly parabolic Short trend, now entering a ninth week. From a Market Rhythms perspective, Gold’s 1hr Parabolics study has been indicative of worthy results mid-December-to-date (24-test basis). Some 12 metrics are due this week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with November’s Factory Orders. And Q4 Earnings Season commences.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light following it being robust for yesterday’s session. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time, we’ve the Bond as nearly -3.5 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.022 “low”, Gold just +16 points “high”, Oil +4.11 points “high” and the Spoo -94 points “low”. At Market Trends, its remains that — save for Oil — the other seven BEGOS Markets are in negative linreg trends. Of note therein, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” are just barely curving upward (-88% in real-time): once they confirm a close above the -80% axis, that can bring the run up into the 116s (current level is 114^04). The Econ Baro concludes another quiet week with December’s ISM(Mfg) Index.

2025’s trading commences finding all eight BEGOS markets at present in the black, those notably above today’s Neutral Zones being the Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust. As we’ll see in the next Gold Update for this Saturday, the yellow metal was the best BEGOS performer of 2024, +27.4%. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.4x and the yield 1.274% versus 4.208% annualized for the risk-free 3-month U.S. T-bill, (albeit as mentioned in the current edition of The Gold Update, “Old Yeller” faces an ‘event of default’ come mid-month barring another Congressional bailout). The Bond (113^28) has just climbed above 113^26, its most dominantly-traded price across the past fortnight: as mentioned in Tuesday’s comment, there’s room for the Bond to move up into the 116s. The Econ Baro get’s 2025 underway, today’s incoming metrics including November’s Construction Spending.

Into the year’s final stint we go, with at present both the Bond and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility again is light. We’d noted yesterday the Bond’s being quite extended below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) such that a rise into New Year wouldn’t be untoward: mind at Market Trends the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency to support a higher price upon their eclipsing up through the -80% axis; (in real-time they are -91%); for price itself currently 114^16, by its Market Profile there is room to move all the way up to volume resistance at 116^08. The S&P 500 enters its last trading day of the year with a “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 46.0x, still dangerously high by any historical yardstick. On to 2025, et Bonne Anneé à Tous!

Both Gold and the Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same. and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to price’s ongoing technical negativity, however stating it being more hesitant than in a downtrend; too from a century-to-date perspective (23 completed years), Gold has a tendency to trade net higher for the final two days of the year, whereas the S&P 500 has a tendency to trade net lower. At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil, the seven other BEGOS components are all in negative linreg trends from a month ago-to-date. An interesting trade for which to watch into New Year is the Bond: ’tis (in real-time) nearly -5 full points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); typical downside deviation extends to around -3 points. With nothing on its slate for tomorrow, the Econ Baro completes its year today with December’s Chicago PMI and November’s Pending Home Sales.

At present, the Swiss Franc is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility to this hour continues quite light. By Market Rhythms, the current best for pure swing consistency are — on a 10-test basis — the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator, Gold’s 8hr Parabolics, and the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow, whilst — on a 24-test basis — we’ve again those same two Yen and Spoo studies, plus Gold’s 1hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr MACD. The Market Magnets of all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate appear poised for penetration to the upside, meaning prices may get a lift into New Year: we’ll take at look at those in tomorrow’s 789th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is again very light. That notwithstanding, Tuesday’s +1.1% gain for the S&P 500 now places the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at an amazing 48.7x: ’tis double what might be considered an acceptable modern-day norm, and triple that taught in B-school for the norm during a bull market; again, the +$7T printed to counter the negative effects of COVID fungibly found its way into the S&P, the market-cap for which increased by same. True, risk-free U.S. debt is yielding triple that of the S&P’s paltry 1.234%, but risk-full stocks remain the “sexy” place to be; mind too our S&P 500 “Valuations & Rankings” page. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with last Saturday’s Initial Jobless Claims.

The abbreviated trading session presently finds all eight BEGOS Markets within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the leaders currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics, plus Gold’s 8hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis ’tis the same two Yen studies along with Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, notably which just flipped to Short at today’s open. At Market Trends (in real-time) six of the eight BEGOS Components are in negative linregs, the only two positive being for Copper and Oil. And at Market Values, two notable deviations are the Bond’s being nearly -4 points below its smooth valuation line and the Euro -0.018 points below same. No incoming metrics are due today for the Econ Baro. Joyeux Noël d’ici à Tous !

As the first of two abbreviated trading weeks begins, we’ve at present both Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to the disparate inflation reads wherein the BLS reads it as increasing whilst the BEA sees it as decreasing; Gold itself remains in its weekly parabolic Short trend, perhaps en route to test the upper 2400s given the expanding negativity of the weekly MACD. Moneyflow into the S&P 500 continues to be robust, our page thereto so showing for each of the weekly, monthly and quarterly charts, even as the “live” P/E remains an unsustainable 47.3x. The Econ Baro kicks off its subdued week with December’s Consumer Confidence, plus November’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

Gold is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Euro and the Spoo; the latter’s linear regression trend (see Market Trends) appears poised to rotate from positive to negative, if not today, then come Monday; again, prior to the S&P 500’s Wednesday rout, the daily Parabolics on the March Spoo already had flipped from Long to Short effective last Monday’s open. November’s Leading Indicators indeed came in as positive despite the “consensus” for a negative reading: as herein penned yesterday, they “…are supposed to be mildly negative, but an “unch” or mildly positive read wouldn’t surprise us given the Baro’s recent resilience”; ’tis why we regularly refer to them as “lagging” indicators given the Baro leads them. And for today, incoming metrics include November’s Personal Income/Spending along with the “Fed-favoured” inflation read via the Core PCE. Our November inflation table shall thus be complete for tomorrow’s 788th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

Following an across-the-board down day for all eight BEGOS Markets, we’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Spoo all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other three components are within same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traded 90% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). Prior to yesterday’s downdraft for the S&P, we’d herein penned early Tuesday that “…for the S&P … ’tis so overcooked to this point both fundamentally and technically that some degree of downside hoovering awaits; perhaps ’twill be a ‘sell the priced-in’ Fed announcement…” which indeed resulted: ’twas the S&P’s fifth-worst one-day points slide (-178) in its history and on a percentage basis (-2.9%) in nearly the 99th percentile of worst one-day losses. In midst of it all, by Market Values, the Spoo reached back down to its smooth valuation line. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include Q3’s final GDP read, December’s Philly Fed Index, plus November’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) indicators: that latter are supposed to be mildly negative, but an “unch” or mildly positive read wouldn’t surprise us given the Baro’s recent resilience.

Copper is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quiet ahead of the Fed. The S&P 500 is now 29 trading days “textbook overbought” and indeed so through 44 of the past 48; the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is at this instant 48.4x; technically, the daily Parabolics on the March Spoo are into their fourth Short day, and the 12hr MACD continues to sink, now at its lowest level since the negative crossover was confirmed from 09 December; and by Market Values, the Spoo in (real-time) is +163 points above it smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS Markets are reasonably near their own like metric. Even as inflation is increasing, the Fed is expected to cut its Funds Rate by -25bps, the FOMC Policy Statement due at 19:00 GMT, prior to which the Econ Baro receives November’s Housing Starts/Permits and Q3’s Current Account Balance.

Copper is presently below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. Per our MoneyFlow page, the S&P 500 has received substantive inflow across all three of our time measures (weekly, monthly. quarterly): the inference thus is bullish for the S&P; however, ’tis so overcooked to this point both fundamentally and technically that some degree of downside hoovering awaits; perhaps ’twill be a “sell the priced-in” Fed announcement tomorrow; as noted yesterday, the Spoo’s daily Parabolics have just flipped to Short. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s NAHB Housing Index, November’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus October’s Business Inventories.

The busy week begins with the Swiss Franc at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update graphically depicts last week’s “Spike n’ Sink”, price initially driven up geopolitically and on the CPI, then back down on the PPI and a bit of Fed doubt; highlighted therein is inflation being back on the increase, the Dollar in turn getting the bid throughout last week. As to notions of an S&P 500 “Santa Claus Rally”, across the past 44 years for these seven trading days leading up to Christmas ’tis not occurred in 13 of them (i.e. ’tis not automatic); indeed the Spoo’s daily Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s open. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from December into that for March, and for Oil from January into February. For the Econ Baro there are 19 metrics due this the week, 10 of which arrive prior to Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement; today brings December’s NY State Empire Index.

All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is very light. The Yen’s Long signal herein cited on 03 December is provisionally failing: ’tis based upon the daily Price Oscillator dominating the Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency (on a 24-test basis); such signal would now swing to Short. The S&P 500 yesterday produced a “Hobson Close” in settling on its low level for the session: this last occurred on 26 August 2022, following which the S&P some seven weeks later was down by more than -13%, albeit we don’t give such events predictive shrift, whereas the futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the S&P is an unsustainable 46.4x. ‘Tis rollover for the currencies from the December cacs to those for March. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with November’s Ex/Im Prices.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. Yesterday’s +0.8% rise in the S&P 500 is “media-credited” to the CPI — whilst yet again above the Fed’s desired pace — having met “expectations” in turn “guaranteeing” a rate cut come the FOMC’s 18 December Policy Statement; (yes, ’tis nonsensical). Looking at current correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is negative between the Euro and Oil; notably, Oil yesterday confirmed a close above its Market Magnet, suggestive of still higher prices near-term, perhaps a breakout above the mid-71s top from two weeks ago. Included in today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics we’ve November’s wholesale inflation reads per the PPI.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Spoo, for which the EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been been swiftly narrowing: two weeks ago ’twas 67 points, today ’tis set for 47 points. Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis the consistency swing leader is Silver’s 8hr Price Oscillator, followed by the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics which flipped to Short effective today’s open, counter to the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator: that study on the 24-test basis is Long. The Econ Baro gets its first dose of November’s inflation data at the retail level via the CPI; too, late in the session comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is quite light. Gold has been getting a bid as the week unfolds, albeit ‘twould “appear” to be geopolitically-driven: as you regular readers know, such impetus for Gold rallies generally sees price return back down from whence it initially came; again, the parabolic weekly trend for Gold remains Short. As to the Spoo, its 12hr MACD confirmed a negative crossover effective today’s open: this has been an excellent Market Rhythm for the the Spoo with the last 10 such crossovers (to Long or Short) all following-through with at least an additional 76 points; thus basis the March cac (which opened today at 6134) a move down to at least 6058 would be reasonable, barring first an all-time high above 6179. The Econ Baro awaits the revisions to Q3’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

At present we’ve the Euro below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites the narrowing of price’s trading range such that ’tis anticipated the current parabolic Short trend shall carry on for at least another week; provided as well is evidence of the S&P 500’s extreme “textbook overbought” condition, both technically and fundamentally. Amongst Market Rhythms, we’re minding the Spoo’s 12hr MACD as ’tis been a solid signaling performer from August-to-date: its next stance would be from Long-to-Short within a day or two, barring price resuming its upside breakout. Metrics are due every day this week for the Econ Baro, starting today with October’s Wholesale Inventories.

Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility to this point of the session is light-to-moderate. The Metals Triumvirate is thus far getting the most play, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being 68% for Silver, 71% for Copper and 77% for Gold. As anticipated, both the Euro and Swiss Franc have moved higher since their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) climbed above their -80% axes coming out of last week. And going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as better than +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.012 points “low”, Gold -20 points “low”, Oil -1.43 points “low” and the Spoo +229 points high. The S&P 500 has been at an “extreme” level of being “textbook overbought” now for seven consecutive trading days, a condition not seen since early November 2021, following which the Index “corrected” by better than -22% over the ensuing eight months. The Econ Baro concludes its week with December’s UofM Sentiment Survey, November’s Payrolls and late in the session October’s Consumer Credit.

The Euro is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is very light. Gold’s 12hr Parabolics flipped to Long effective today’s open: of the 405 Market Rhythms run each evening, this one ranks in the top ten and has produced a minimum of 17 points of follow-through (either Long or Short) in nine of the past 10 signals; of course, the more dominant weekly Parabolic trend remains Short; too, (inclusive of real-time), Gold’s 21-day linear regression trend is neutral, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) smack on their 0% axis, but themselves rising. For the S&P 500, its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is now 46.6x, the Index now overbought through 35 of the past 39 trading days, and at our “extreme” level through the past six. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include November’s Trade Deficit.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. In looking at Market Ranges, notably narrowing of late include those for the Bond, Silver, Copper, Oil, and to some extent the Spoo. As to Market Rhythms’ pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the current leaders are Oil’s 15mn Moneyflow, Silver’s 1hr MACD and 8hr Price Oscillator, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; on a 24-test basis the current best are Gold’s 2hr MACD, and as has been mentioned in multiple commentaries, the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro looks to November’s ADP Employment data, ISM(Svc) Index and October’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

At present below today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond and Swiss Franc; above same are Silver and Copper, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. The non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator — which has be dominating the top of our Market Rhythms runs on a 24-test basis for pure swing consistency — confirmed flipping from Short to Long at today’s open: currently 0.0066815, ‘twould be well within historical performance range to see an ascent up to at least .0068940 into year-end; (the average full swing duration of this Rhythm over the past three years is some seven trading weeks). Also for currencies, just as yesterday we cited the Swiss Franc’s having (by Market Trends) its “Baby Blues” cross above the key -80% axis, so too now has that measure for the Euro; the Dollar’s weakening over the past two weeks looks to further strengthen these attendant currencies. ‘Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro which yesterday benefitted by both the ISM(Mfg) Index and Construction Spending.

Save for Oil, ’tis a red start to December for the seven other BEGOS Markets, each one (except for the mildly negative Spoo) at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is firmly moderate, likely pushing toward robust as the day unfolds. The S&P 500’s “textbook overbought” stance is at our “extreme” reading: indeed ’tis been overbought for 17 consecutive trading days and in total for 32 of the last 36; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is presently a whopping 45.5x and the yield 1.228%; that annualized for the risk-free 3-month T-Bill is 4.373%. On Friday, the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing above the key -80% axis, indicative of still higher prices: currently 1.1327, a near-term push to at least 1.1442 wouldn’t be untoward. The Econ Baro begins December with November’s ISM(Mfg) Index and October’s Construction Spending.

The two-day abbreviated session for the BEGOS Markets continues with just the Swiss Franc at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone; volatility for the combined session is moderate. Of note from our Market Magnets page, those for both the Euro and Swiss Franc have been price penetrated to the upside, whilst for Gold to the downside: such penetrations are indicative of continued near-term direction. The Spoo suggests a higher open for the S&P 500, its “textbook overbought” streak to be further extended. Early BEGOS Market’s closures are as follows (all GMT): the Bond 18:15, EuroCurrencies 19:45, Metals Triumvirate 19:45, Oil 19:45, and the Spoo 19:15. As stated in the still current edition of The Gold Update, tomorrow’s edition shall be quite brief given our writing remotely this time ’round.