Into week’s end we’ve at present the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Of note by Market Ranges, Gold’s EDTR is 89 points (vs. 35 a year ago) whilst that for Silver is 0.88 points (not that far from 0.75 points a year ago); the Gold/Silver ratio is 99.0x (vs. the century-to-date average of 69.0x); more on it all in tomorrow’s 809th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Meanwhile for the S&P 500, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 45.8x and the yield 1.313% vs. the U.S. T-Bill’s risk-free annualized yield of 4.258%. The Econ Baro looks to these incoming metrics in concluding the week: April’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices, along with May’s UofM Sentiment Survey. Today wraps up Q1 Earnings Season for 2025, which for year-over-year quarterly improvement specific to S&P 500 constituents has essentially been average.
Mark
15 May 2025 – 08:25 Central Euro Time
Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. Gold confirmed a negative crossing of its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): this is of course a Short signal, albeit as we regularly quip “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”; still, a run from here (3137) down to 3000 wouldn’t seen untoward, price having established a plateau there back in February. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from June into that for July. And the Econ Baro is poised to take in 11 metrics today, amongst which are May’s NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, along with April’s Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, plus March’s Business Inventories.
14 May 2025 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
Both Gold and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is quite light. Gold has nearly closed the long-running deviation above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): in real-time, price is now just +10 points over the line, after having been as much (on a closing basis) as +440 points “high” back on 21 April; (and as previously noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally has flipped from Long-to-Short). Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is currently the 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis the 4hr parabolics. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a barrage featuring 16 incoming metrics from tomorrow into Friday; of note per yesterday’s CPI data, inflation’s pace increased during April.
13 May 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
As posted yesterday on ‘X’, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short; barring Gold improbably making an All-Time High this week (above 3510), the new Short trend shall confirm upon Friday’s settle. At present, both Gold and Silver, along with the Euro and Swiss Franc are above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is light. Yesterday’s gap-up open for the S&P 500 was by points the largest in its 68-year history; the Index through the past 11 days is “textbook overbought” and the Spoo (in real-time) is +384 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the Index is 44.3x. The Econ Baro looks to the first report of April’s inflation via the CPI.
12 May 2025 – 08:39 Central Euro Time
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present within its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update gives evidence to the yellow metal’s great rally potentially having run out of puff: purported progress of tariff resolution issues is drawing money from the safe havens into equities and the Dollar. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, the Spoo as adjusted for fair value places the Index +1.5%, (and the “live” P/E at 43.6x); the Spoo in real-time is +297 points above its smooth valuation line, see Market Values). The Econ Baro begins it busy week of 19 incoming metrics with April’s Treasury Budget due late in the session. And this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season.
The Gold Update: No. 808 – (10 May 2025) – “Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 808th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 10 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Regains Ground (albeit Stumbles Around…)“
Our missive’s title is ever so suitable for parsing… So let’s go!
Part Un: “Gold Regains Ground” for indeed it did in settling yesterday (Friday) at 3329 for a net weekly rise of +82 points (+2.5%). Heaven forbid price instead have suffered a third consecutive down week! Why, that hasn’t happened since those ending the 1st, 8th and 15th of November last year!
Part Deux: “(albeit Stumbles Around…)” for after reaching as high as 3448 on Wednesday — up +201 points (+6.2%) into mid-week — selling then ensued such as to settle Gold at the noted 3329, which all-in-all is now -181 points (-5.2%) below the All-Time High of 3510 recorded back on 22 April.
“And it made a record down move for an up week, right mmb?”
Spot on, Squire. Thus far in this 21st century-to-date there have been 1,271 trading weeks of which 708 (56%) have settled net up for Gold. And the record to which Squire refers is based specifically on points lost from the intra-week high to the end-of-week settle: Gold went down -119 points from Wednesday’s high in nonetheless finishing net up for the week. More realistically on a percentage basis, the high-to-settle drop of -3.5% still ranks 12th-worst for an up week so far this century, and by those -119 points, the worst for an up week since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71.
Thus in reprising our entitled query of a week ago: “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?” we sense that the up week’s record setting high-to-settle points loss sensibly suggests that Gold has — for the present — run out of puff. Further as we turn to Gold’s valuation per our proprietary BEGOS Markets measuring, price today remains +157 points “high” above the smooth line as shown here:
Moreover, Gold also is at this century’s record for the number of consecutive trading days in having settled above said smooth valuation line: 86, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is better than four months). The previous record of 75 trading days was set in both 2024 and 2019. So to say this great Gold rally has become “a bit long in the tooth” arguably is reasonable, despite it being magnificent that Gold has been garnering long-overdue notice.
Still, specific to this past intra-week’s points plunge, let’s go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date. And as therein stated, the red portion of the rightmost bar is the largest points drop for any up week in Gold’s history; (yes the intra-week drop two weeks prior was worse, but ’twas a net down week). As for the still ongoing blue-dotted parabolic Long trend, ‘twould come to an end should 3243 be eclipsed (“just” -86 points from here) in the new week:
Too, in looking at Gold’s settles by the day across some 15 years, price has gotten quite far afield from its traditionally “guardian” 300-day moving average, such deviation at present being +699 points above the next graphic’s blue line. But by percentage distance, price is “only” +26.6% above that average; the record is +47.4% exactly 19 years ago on 11 May 2006, Gold then priced at 722, from which by mid-year it fell -24%. Yes, Virginia, price retreats do happen, (oft when all around are bullish):
As to the lowlight of last week, the Federal Reserve did its present posture preserve. For in line with consensus, the Open Market Committee maintained its Bank’s Funds Rate in the 4.25%-to-4.50% target range. But for those of you who diligently follow the deMeadville website and The Gold Update, you must have been rather startled by what the Fed said, as culled from the opening paragraph of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement that we’ve embedded below in the Econ Baro:
“Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace”? Look above at the Baro’s blue line since February. And as rightly forecast by the Fed’s own Sixth District Atlanta branch, we already knew back on 30 April the initial read of annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product was negative.
“Inflation remains somewhat elevated“? Recall from last week’s missive the summary table of March’s inflation paces? Not only were they disinflationary, but some were DEflationary! Perhaps the Fed sees March as a “one off”: to be sure, 12-month inflation through March still averaged +2.6%, effectively in excess of the Fed’s desired +2.0% target. Let’s see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has in the coming week for April’s Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday): consensii expect a pickup in inflation’s pace.
Meanwhile, losing upside pace is Gold. Clearly this is evident in the left-hand panel below of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date. Whilst the baby blues dots are still above their 0% axis — indicative that price’s trend remains up — their contrarily being in descent denotes the consistency of the uptrend as breaking down. As for Gold’s 10-day Market Profile in the right-hand panel, the “line in the sand” price to hold is 3322:
Silver’s picture is quite similar. Her trend (on the left) is positive, but like that for Gold is losing consistency as her “Baby Blues” too have begun to fold. And as to her 10-Day Market Profile (on the right), price at present (32.88) is not too far from her most volume-dominant supporter at 32.60. ‘Course, relative to Gold, Sweet Sister Silver remains considerably cheap per the Gold/Silver ratio now 101.3x versus the century-to-date average of just 69.0x:
In sum, its emotive hype aside, we still anticipate a bit lower Gold near-term; (indeed a most-valued colleague here suggested yesterday — over a delightful rosé — that 2400 is in the offing). That’s a bit out of range (-24%) from our perspective; however, Gold obviously has corrected by at least such percentage, notably during 2006-to-2008, certainly so post-2011’s All-Time High through 2015, as well as during 2019-to-2020. ‘Tis merely what the world’s major liquid financial markets on occasion do.
Next week also brings the calendar conclusion to Q1 Earnings Season, which to this point for the S&P 500 constituents is “average” for year-over-year quarterly improvement. ‘Course as you saw earlier in the Economic Barometer, the S&P 500’s price/earning ratio is an inane 43.0x. Thus earnings are on balance improving, but their overall level remains far too low to continue supporting price; (how’s that 1.359% annualized dividend yield workin’ out for ya?)
And specific to the Econ Baro, a huge load of 19 metrics are scheduled for the ensuing week. Shall the Baro live up to the Fed’s “solid pace” perception of the economy? As ever, we’ll mind the math…
…whilst you, rather than stumble around, mind — indeed mine — your Gold and Silver fine!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
09 May 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
Into week’s end we’ve at present Gold above its Neutral Zone for today and Copper below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. At Market Trends, our “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for all eight BEGOS components, albeit the only two currently with actual declining trends are the Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values for the five primary entities in real-time time: the Bond is 2^09 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro just 0.001 points “high”, Gold +155 points “high”, Oil -4.77 points “low” and the Spoo +220 points “high”. The S&P 500 is now textbook overbought through the past nine trading days. With one week still to run for Q1 Earnings Season, 427 S&P 500 constituents have reported of which 66% (282) have beaten their EPS of their like quarter a year ago. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro, it having concluded its week yesterday. Tomorrow brings our 808th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
08 May 2025 – 08:20 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Amongst correlations of the five primary BEGOS components, that for Gold is notably positive with the Euro, however negatively so with the Spoo. Oil’s 12hr MACD embarked on a flip from Short-to-Long effective yesterday at12:00 (CET): year-to-date this has been a very respectable Market Rhythm, and in real-time by Market Values, Oil is -6.92 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro rounds out its week today, incoming metrics including March’s Wholesale Inventories and Q1’s initial read of Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
07 May 2025 – 08:26 Central Euro Time
The Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets to this hour continues as moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms at those currently displaying the best pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics as well as its 4hr Moneyflow, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis again the same for the Yen, along with Gold’s 2hr Parabolics. At Market Magnets, both the Euro and Silver yesterday confirmed positive crossings of price above Magnet, suggestive of higher levels near-term. Late in the session, the Econ Baro looks to March’s Consumer Credit, preceded an hour earlier by the week’s highlight of the FOMC’s Policy Statement, the consensus for which is no change in the Bank’s Funds rate.
06 May 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is yet again moderate to this point of the session. Gold has gained some +130 points since our querying (at 3247) about its great run being done: presently 3371, price is “only” -139 points below the 3510 All-Time High; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most dominant volume support price is 3324; and the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is its 6hr MACD, in which hindsight vacuum $57k/cac has been generated since late February, and which swung from Short to Long yesterday at 12:00 (CET). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Trade Deficit.
05 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Gold Update queries as to the yellow metal’s great run being done (for now): price is within a day’s range of flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short (effective 3209); Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points.; and by Market Values (in real-time) Gold remains +164 points above its smooth valuation line. Q4 Earnings Season still has some two weeks to run: with 337 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 220 have bettered their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; such 65% rate of improvement is a bit below the typical 66% pace. The Econ Baro begins a light week with April’s ISM(Apr) Index. And Wednesday brings the FOMC’s next policy statement for which consensus sees no change in.
The Gold Update: No. 807 – (03 May 2025) – “Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 807th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 03 May 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Is Gold’s Great Run Finally Done (for now…)?“
Apropos of this missive’s title — and with the year’s first quadrimester (plus two May trading days) already in the books — let’s start with another of our infamous Gold Quizzes. Ready?
In settling yesterday, (Friday) at 3247, Gold completed its 18th trading week of the year with a net weekly loss — as just was the case in the 17th week! Thus, prior to this:
- When was the last time Gold recorded two consecutive down weeks?
“Oh that one’s easy, mmb! Not since last year!”
My dear Squire, such quiz is directed toward our highly-valued audience, rather than be front-run in-house. Still, in this instance, “A Man for All Seasons” –[Columbia, ’66], is not Sir Thomas More, but indeed Sir Squire. Let’s simply add some specificity to his statement:
Through these 18 weeks of 2025, Gold has recorded but four that were net down. However, three of those down weeks are amongst the past five, even within which price has made a weekly “higher-high” four times. And to answer the quiz: Gold’s last two consecutive down weeks were the last two weeks of 2024.
To be sure, in 2025, Gold has had a great run … but is it finally done? By our opening Gold Scoreboard, Gold today at 3247 is -16% below its Dollar debasement value of 3879. Still, price — with only a third of this year having passed — has already traced 117% of its expected yearly trading range. Yet hardly ought that be surprising given Gold’s great breakout. But as you regular readers well know, the year’s high (thus far?) at 3510 elicited an ever-so extensive stretch above our BEGOS Markets’ valuation for Gold. And it remains the case — even as price is reverting to said valuation — that Gold remains relatively +158 points “high” (at 3247) to such reversion destination (at 3029). Yet clearly that valuation itself is rightly rising each day:
Bespoke of the BEGOS Markets, Gold firmly finds itself at the top of the table as we turn to the Standings year-to-date. And has been the case throughout, all three podium positions comprise our Metals Triumvirate. But therein note Silver remaining woefully undervalued relative to Gold. In 2025, Gold so far is +23.0% and Copper +16.8%: so ought Silver at least be between those two (given the tug of war over her being both a precious metal as well as one that is industrial) rather than “only” +9.9%? Too, the Gold/Silver ratio is again 100.9x relative to its century-to-date evolving average of now 69.0x. By our expertise to reprise, priced to said ratio today places Silver (instead of at her current 32.18 level) +46% higher at 47.09. Might Silver thus be “the easiest Long trade” for the foreseeable future? We eloquently answer: “Well DUH!”
Specific to Gold and its three down weeks in the last five, let’s go to the weekly bars from one year ago-to-date. We’ve highlighted in red all four down weeks recorded so far in 2025. Moreover, note the rightmost parabolic Long trend blue dot: should Gold break below 3209 in the ensuing week, such trend shall flip to Short. Obviously such flip price is well within range (just -38 points below here) given Gold’s “expected daily trading range” is presently 83 points, let alone the “expected weekly trading range” now a whopping 140 points(!) The Golden wave of euphoria has Long been waving; but from here it may be Short-lived, barring a basically “straight-up” week in the offing; else Gold’s great run — at least for the present — may well be done:
Naturally it being month-end and two trading days into May, ’tis time to bring up the year-over-year percentage tracks of Gold along with several tip-tier precious metal equities. From least-to-most we below see Newmont (NEM) +27%, both the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) +28%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, Gold itself +39%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +42%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +75%. (Were you in the S&P 500 from a year ago, your dividend-inclusive gain is +15% … even as you’re behind this year … oh dear):
Further for the precious metals, here next are the 10-day Market Profliles for Gold on the left and Silver on the right. With present prices for the yellow and white metals all but at the bottom of their respective Profiles, both have taken a bit of a beat-down. Either way, as crooned the darling duo Sonny & Cher back in ’67, 
“The beat goes on…”:
Although having turned lower near-term, the primary driving source for the on-balance rise in the precious metals — certainly century-to-date — and arguably (albeit erratically) so through the last three decades of the 20th century, is of course currency debasement, the eminent element therein being inflation. Simply stated for those of you scoring at home, the more there is of something (Dollars), the less each is worth, and thus the more that must be tendered in monetary transactions; (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is why your Big Macs cost so much). As through the month of March, we’ve now all the data for our inflation summary as follows:
So you know where this is going given the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee issues their next Policy Statement come Wednesday (07 May). By the above summary’s 12-Month Summation column, every metric is above the Fed’s desired inflation pace of +2.0%. But annualizing March’s data alone — on average — is DEflationary! How reasonable is that for rate relief? After all, your cost of living went down in March, non?
“My usual stuff actually cost more, mmb…”
Oh say it ain’t so, Squire. But to his point, we are more frequently seeing the “S” word stagflation in the FinMedia mix. Thus is the economy retreating even as prices “in reality” are rising? Hat-tip the Atlanta Fed which predicted negative Q1 Gross Domestic Product, the initial reading for which came in at an annualized -0.3% — yet the chain deflator was a very inflative +3.7%! Stagflation indeed!
As for the Economic Barometer, of the 18 incoming metrics this past week, barely four improved period-over-period, including March’s Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales and Factory Orders. But at least the stock market went up, Bloomy referring to the rise as “Epic”; (obviously they need a semester in Market Mathematics). Here’s the Baro:
Regardless, ‘twould appear Wall Street sees inflation as having ceased, and per CNBC, “…stocks claw back tariff losses…” you see. Thus: let the Fed cut sans impunity, if you please! What do the BEGOS Markets see? Let’s go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components across their past 21 trading days (one month) with their respective grey trendlines and our famous “Baby Blues” of day-to-day regression trend consistency. And as the Dollar returns to getting a bit of a bid, note the blue dots rolling over to the downside for the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. All together now: “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”:
And of course since our prior “month-end” missive (29 March), Gold has proceeded to blow through our forecast high for this year of 3262 en route to having reached 3510! Here by the monthly candles is Gold’s structural journey these past 16 years:
In closing, let’s review specific to the S&P 500 that which we anticipated back in our 05 April missive: a major negative crossover for the Index’s “moving average convergence divergence” (“MACD”). And ’twas just confirmed as the S&P closed out April. The last time the Index recorded such a high-level negative MACD crossover was at the conclusion of February in 2022, after which into October the S&P accumulated an all-in decline of -1,038 points (-23%). Ready?
“But mmb, in B-school they said stocks are a hedge against inflation, just like gold, eh?“
True enough, Squire. However, we were also taught (to yet again reprise Jerome B. Cohen): “…in bull markets the average [price/earnings] level would be about 15 to 18 times earnings…” Today, ridiculously beyond rationality, the “live” (i.e. trailing 12-months) p/e for the S&P settled the week yesterday at 43.9x(!) In other words: with stock prices unsupported by earnings, GDP shrinking, the economy showing signs of stagflation, and a liquid money supply that can only cover 44% of the “money” currently invested in the S&P 500, ’tis not the time to say to stocks “Buy-Buy!”, but rather “Bye-Bye!”
As for the slipping precious metals, think “Dip-Buy!”
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
02 May 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Save for the Bond which at present is inside its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets are above same; session volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as essentially on its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.0393 points “high”, Gold as +180 points “high”, Oil as -6.56 points “low” and the Spoo as +160 points “high”. The S&P 500 itself week-to-date remains “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” p/e is 43.0x; on the S&P’s monthly chart, its MACD confirmed a negative crossing as May got underway: the last such negative crossover occurred in April 2022 leading to a more than -1,000 points (-14.5%) decline into November. ‘Tis April’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro, along with March’s Factory Orders.
01 May 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Copper, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Indeed, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency confirmed crossing below the +80%; we’re anticipating the low 1.12s from here, perhaps even the upper 1.11s as the Dollar is showing a bit of resilience with a positive MACD swing on the Buck’s daily chart. Gold continues to work toward closing the gap down to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price in real-time however still +167 points “high”. For correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the current best is positive between Gold and the Euro. And included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s ISM(Mfg) Index and March’s Construction Spending.
30 April 2025 – 08:12 Central Euro Time
The year’s first quadrimester concludes with significant input for the Econ Baro: nine metrics come due, amongst which are April’s ADP Employment data and the Chi PMI, March’s “Fed-favoured” PCE report along with Personal Income/Spending and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q1’s GDP along with the Employment Cost Index. Ahead of it all at present we’ve Copper as the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone, and session volatility is very light, again within the context of EDTRs (see Market Ranges) having widened considerably this month. At Market Trends, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in real-time moving below their key +80% axis such that we look for lower prices near-term; too by Market Values, the Euro is (in real-time) +0.046 points above its smooth valuation line; a run from here in the 1.14s down into the 1.12s wouldn’t be untoward over the ensuing days/week or two.
29 April 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 (5529) has returned to being “textbook overbought” for the first time since 20 February (then 6118); indeed the Spoo — which had been below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for some two months — has finally (in real-time) reverted back up to it such that still higher price levels ought be expected; however, the S&P’s “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is at this moment an ever so expensive 42.5x, and the yield a wee 1.394% vs. the 3-month US T-Bill’s 4.193% annualized. Meanwhile Gold, by its smooth valuation line remains excessively “high”, in real-time +278 points above said line. The Econ Baro gets its week going today with April’s Consumer Confidence.
28 April 2025 – 08:37 Central Euro Time
At present, the Swiss Franc plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to begin the week is mostly light. The Gold Update continues to cite price’s near-term over-valuation; however with Gold down today, by Market Values, price — which on a closing basis had been as much as +440 “high” above its smooth valuation line — is now (in real-time) +262 points “high” above completing reversion to said “mean”; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant resistor is 3343, the like supporter being 3238; and Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is now 92 points. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro: whilst nothing is due for today, the rest of the week has 18 incoming scheduled metrics, including on Wednesday the “Fed-favoured” PCE Index for March’s inflation.
The Gold Update: No. 806 – (26 April 2025) – “Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 806th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 26 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Morphs into a Meme Stock“
Remember this ol’ tagline from the ’70s? “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen!”
Fast-forward to today and ’tis “When Goldman talks, people pile on!” For the Morgans et alia, too, the same holds true.
Far be it from The Big Houses to facilitate mathematical justification. Rather:
- Just announce “Here comes 4000 Gold, for recession shall unfold!”;
- Then reprise Tag Team from ’93 with “Whoomp! (There It Is)”;
- And in mere hours Gold morphs into a straight up meme stock as if ’twere GameStop.
In that same critical vein, this past week a fine friend and valued colleague shared these words from Mark Clubb, Executive Chairman at the wealth/asset management financial services firm TEAM PLC: “…there is undoubtedly too much noise in financial advice today … dressed up as wisdom and too many professionals repeating slogans instead of offering substance…” We agree.
Regardless: if “4000 Gold!” is the call, let’s just immediately put price there. “We don’t need no stinkin’ analysis!”
For more perspective we’ve this. Across the 644 months which have passed since President Nixon nixed The Gold Standard back in ’71 — with still three trading days left in this April’s balance — Gold has already set the record for its largest intra-month low-to-high points-gain in history: +540!
Impressive as well on a percentage basis, the +18.2% intra-month gain ranks 15th-best since said nixing. As for the 14 other even-better intra-month gains, Gold on average then fell by -11.7% within three months, suggesting that sub-3000 from here is very realistic moving forward. ‘Tis just the way Gold has traded — at least historically — once the euphoria wears off.
Still, here’s a real show-stopper: from January’s low just three months ago (2625), Gold has come to within 115 points of having gained $1,000/oz! Cue the late great “Bullet” Bill King: “Holy Toledo!!”
‘Course, there’s still the party-pooper fly in the ointment — for just as do meme stocks — following Gold’s latest All-Time High of 3510 recorded this past Tuesday, price come Wednesday fell as much as -239 points (-6.8%) to 3271 toward settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3330. No, Gold did not reach down to the 3237 Market Profile support level as prognosticated a week ago; but by our near-term technical BEGOS Markets Value measure, price remains +302 points too “high”:
And as it has always done, we anticipate Gold (3330) sorting itself out with respect to the above chart’s BEGOS valuation (3028), such rising smooth line itself this past week having averaged a daily gain of +8 points.
More importantly of course, by the opening Gold Scoreboard, the yellow metal’s supply-adjusted Dollar debasement value (3875) remains the broad-term goal. And therein note: the liquid StateSide money supply (“M2” basis) just set its own record high, now $22,149,197,787,444.50, (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there reads as “Twenty-two trillion one hundred forty-nine billion one hundred ninety-seven million seven hundred eighty-seven thousand four hundred forty-four dollars and fifty cents”).
Indeed, every Lincoln counts…
…and unfortunately, hardly is there enough liquidity to cover the S&P 500’s current market capitalization of $48.7T. Thus: at least halve the current “live” price/earnings ratio (42.3x) to avoid the “Look Ma! No Money!” crash.
“But then it already will have crashed, mmb…”
Squire’s brevity of brilliance oft qualifies as the last word. Yet there’s hope: for if the effect of “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) positively plays out such that the U.S. makes its own stuff and earnings double, then also avoided is the “Look Ma! No Earnings!” crash. But we digress…
To progress back to Gold, its continuous futures contract volume these past five days (1,765,217) was the most since the COVID-crippling week ending 14 August 2020, (soon after price had eclipsed 2000 for the first time).
Now this year-to-date, 17 trading weeks already are in the books with just three of them having been down. But: in accordance with the aforeshown Market Value graphic of Gold being +302 points “high”, two of the past four weeks have been down. So is it finally being perceived that — near-term — Gold perhaps has gone “A Bridge Too Far” –[U.A. ’77]? Here are the weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the three downers during 2025 in red:
Moreover, in walking to coffee this morning we encountered an esteemed gentleman who actively trades the precious metals futures, notably so Silver, which has been in part excluded from Gold’s rally. We exclaimed: “Wow, the Gold/Silver ratio this week reached 107x!” to which he replied “Yes, but it is Gold that has gone way too far too fast!” So for those of you scoring at home, just a little perspective from the quiet shores of our wee Mediterranean fishing village.
Still (as noted at the foot of the above graphic), the Gold/Silver ratio settled the week at 100.9x. ‘Tis not nearly the highest reading century-to-date (having reached 124.2x on 18 March 2020 in the COVID chaos); all-in, the ratio’s average since 2001 is 68.9x. Silver priced today to that average — rather than being the current 33.02 — would instead be +46% higher at 48.31, ever so near the white metal’s own All-Time High of 49.82 away back now 14 full years ago on 25 April 2011.
Indeed as we go to Gold’s two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right, ’tis queried “Can’t Silver keep up?” Yet, note the baby blue dots of trend consistency are at least momentarily running out of puff without having reached up to the key +80% level: that suggests lower prices are nigh. And by the Profile we can see the magnitude of Gold’s rapid pullback from this latest 3510 All-Time High:
With the like graphic for Silver, all she can say is “I’m so left out.” Even though she’s actually been in a rally mode these last three weeks, on a month-to-date closing basis Silver is net down -5.0% from 34.77 to 33.02, whereas Gold is net up +5.5% from 3157 to 3330. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: “Poor ol’ Sister Silver!” Of course, blame it on Cousin Copper whose having dragged Silver into mischievous deeds finds the red metal down -4.1% month-to-date. That’s our Sweet Sister Silver as — given Gold and Copper — she’s “Torn Between Two Lovers” –[Mary MacGregor, ’76]:
Toward wrapping it up for this week, the StateSide economy has gone to sleep, even as “TT” shall it eventually tweak, if as we’re so led to believe.
Similar to what we’d seen the prior week, this past one brought but six metrics into the Economic Barometer: period-over-period, three improved and three worsened. Either way, as the high-level financial professionals below depicted in the Econ Baro tell us, the S&P 500 (which month-to-date is barely down -1.5%) loves “no news” and further, “S&P 6200 is a done deal”:
But then there’s next week: 18 metrics come due for the Baro, including that breath-holding, “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures for March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already found March to be deflationary! Will the Bureau of Economic Analysis find same via the PCE? Likewise, shall the first peek at Q1 Gross Domestic Product be negative? So anticipates Raphael “Reality” Bostic’s Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Either way: prepare the popcorn!
Still, at the end of the day, ’tis all ok. Despite fears of recession, “TT”, and unsupportive earnings, we’re nonetheless told to expect “S&P 6200!” For as decreed Yul Brynner in the role of Pharaoh Rameses I of Egypt –[The Ten Commandments, Paramount, ’56]: “So let it be written; so let it be done!”
‘Course what really need be done is — meme as it may be — hold Gold whilst on a Silver shopping spree!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
25 April 2025 – 08:31 Central Euro Time
The elements of the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Our current leaders of Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are on a 10-test basis: the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics along with the 30mn Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis same for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Gold — which by Market Values remains severely near-term overbought — is returning down into the 3200s: more on that in tomorrow’s 806th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. The Econ Baro looks to April’s UofM Sentiment revision. And Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 — which had a robust start — is fading as more companies report, 150 having thus far so done.
24 April 2025 – 08:28 Central Euro Time
Gold high-to-low this week has thus far dropped -239 points (-6.8%), albeit in real-time (now at 3328) ’tis still priced +307 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As for the BEGOS Markets at large, we’ve at present Gold along with the Euro and Swiss Franc above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility is light in the context of the extremely expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges): indeed that today for Gold is 90 points and for the Spoo 212 points. Amongst correlations for the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and Spoo, (the hedge thus being both Long or both Short). Yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500 was sufficient to see the “live” P/E settle all the way back up at 40.0x; futs-adj’d in real-time ’tis 39.9x. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include March’s Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales.
23 April 2025 – 08:34 Central Euro Time
Gold, after having made another All-Time High yesterday at 3510, has since dropped as much as -194 points in essentially 24 hours to 3316; current price is 3333, which is below today’s Neutral Zone as are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; above same are the Bond, Copper, Oil and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time we’ve: the Bond as nearly -3 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0549 points “high”, Gold +320 points “high”, Oil -2.59 points “low” and the Spoo -237 points “low”. By Market Rhythms, the Euro appears poised for a negative 12hr MACD crossover come 12:00 CET/10:00 GMT: follow-through of the prior eight swings has been at minimum 0.012 points (i.e. $1,500/cac). The Econ Baro looks to March’s New Home Sales. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
22 April 2025 – 08:21 Central Euro Time
Another day, another century mark for Gold, price having eclipsed the 3500 level: by Market Values, the yellow metal in real-time is +501 points above its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Copper, too is above today’s Neutral Zone, whereas the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having already traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver continues not to participate in Gold’s rally, the “live” Gold/Silver ratio now 106.8x. Yesterday’s -2.4% drop in the S&P 500 may be mollified by the MoneyFlow being more indicative of a -1.5% drop; the Spoo at present is -453 points below its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And Q1 Earnings Season thus for for the S&P shows 42 constituents having reported, of which 71% have bettered their like quarter of a year ago; the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.1x.
21 April 2025 – 08:46 Central Euro Time
EuroSide the long weekend continues, however StateSide ’tis back to business as usual with the BEGOS Markets on the move: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate whilst below same are both the Bond and Spoo; session volatility is firmly moderate. Indeed Gold is soaring this morning, currently +61 points at 3402, even as The Gold Update continues to cite the near-term technically overbought state of the yellow metal; in real-time, price is now +408 points above its smooth valuation line; by Market Profiles, Gold’s “nearby” volume supports are 3344, 3326, and then nothing of substance until 3237. Silver is not participating to Gold’s upside extent, the Gold/Silver ratio now 103.7x. ‘Tis a fairly light week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with March’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
The Gold Update: No. 805 – (19 April 2025) – “So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 805th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 19 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“So if — as We’re Told — ‘Everybody’s’ Buying Gold…“
…does it not stand to reason that “Everybody’s” selling Gold? After all, for every ounce bought, it must be sold to the buyer, non? ‘Tis merely the agreed-upon hitting of available bids and offers that makes the price change.
But is such wise word to the Fin&Social/Media sufficient? Likely, no.
Regardless, let’s go to Gold’s Moneyflow. Similar to the website’s MoneyFlow graphics for the S&P 500, below we’ve regressed Gold’s Moneyflow into points such that it can be directly compared with the actual change in price. To wit, this three panel display (one week, one month, one quarter) wherein the green line is the cumulative points difference between Gold’s price change and its MoneyFlow:
“So what’s with that big dip there, mmb? Because Gold is basically at a record high…”
Simple, Squire. Recall after Gold’s having settled at 3190 on 02 April came three robust rounds of selling, price then closing at 2999 on 07 April. The “big dip” — as you put it — merely indicates that the amount of money by points regression which flowed out of Gold hardly in full has flowed back in, even as price as risen to yet another All-Time High at 3372 this past Thursday, toward settling the abbreviated trading week at 3341. In fact, across the past nine trading days (07 – 17 April), Gold’s day-over-day contract volume declined for six of them, (see too our closing graphic).
“Well, none of THAT was on FinTV, mmb…”
Nor would it be, Squire, given their WestPalmBeacher audience. The point is: MoneyFlow ultimately leads price. And as you regular readers know, price at present remains technically well-extended above its BEGOS valuation line per this year-over-year graphic:
To be sure, “mis-valuation” — whether technical or fundamental — seems oft “forever” sustained in markets (a prime example being the S&P’s ongoing post-COVID extreme over-valuation). Obviously, one cannot “will” price to be elsewhere. For ’tis axiomatic that price itself net of its bids and offers is never wrong; Gold therefore by its weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date is ever right:
Gold’s All-Time Closing high was recorded this past Wednesday at 3358. ‘Twas but half that at 1679 a mere 2.3 years ago as encircled in the following table of Gold’s closing price “doublings” since 1975, which was the first full year featuring Gold futures at the COMEX:
‘Course per the table’s footnote, Gold first achieved the 1679 closing level some 14 years ago on 08 August 2011. That — for those of you scoring at home — means Gold was net “unch” after 11 years despite a harrowing route.
Veteran readers may remember back in 2011 our penning about price “having gotten ahead of itself”, after which Gold was severely sold — indeed way oversold — to as low as 1047 on 17 December 2015. ‘Twas exemplary of Gold’s trials and tribulations as it fell far behind the Dollar debasement curve, which is de facto the most acute tool to value the yellow metal per our opening Gold Scoreboard.
Fast-forward to today at 3341, Gold still is -13% below the Scoreboard’s value of 3833. Assuming that flexing level is graphically eclipsed (and we’re still around), we’ll again write of Gold “having gotten ahead of itself”. Certainly at present, the Gold hype is ripe with 4000 in sight … which likely means it shan’t get there anytime soon. Again given Gold’s expected yearly trading range — and assuming the 2625 low (06 January) holds — 3400 may well be Gold’s top for this year should “TT” (“Trump Tariffs“) reach some accord and Europe not be sucked into war.
One wonders as well if the StateSide Economic Barometer has topped for the year. ‘Tis speculated that “TT” are grinding the economy to a halt: “You mean we gotta make our own stuff?? I just wanna stay at home with my phone!!” (You tell ’em, Stoopid).
Further, there’s still evidence of inflation, disinflation, stagflation and now even deflation, the latter per Labor’s March data. But wait, as we offer more confusion: last week’s set of 13 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro found six having improved period-over-period, six having worsened, and one as “unch”. Even those so-called six-figure “experts” are amiss: their consensus for April’s Philly Fed Index was +10.0 … it came in at -26.4 … “Ooooh!” Here’s the year-over-year view, wherein even “The Chair” perhaps is confused:
Note as well in the Baro our “live” Price/Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still a hair-raising 39.2x (summation of: current prices ÷ trailing 12-month earnings x capitalization weighting, wherein non-earners are assigned their price as P/E). The good news is that Q1 Earnings Season — whilst still early with just 41 S&P constituents having thus far reported — recorded 73% as having improved year-over-year results, which is an above average pace. The bad news is — as you’ve herein read a bazillion times — the overall level of earnings remains far too low to support price, the P/E ratio invariably reverting to its mean, especially given the S&P’s 1.462% yield versus the 4.205% annualized yield on risk-free 3-month U.S. Treasury Bills.
Far more broadly, if one can stomach the volatility, Gold also is risk-free. Simply stated, the higher the amount of fiat dough, the higher Gold shall go. Recall GEICO’s infamous quip: “It’s so easy, a caveman can do it” … and according to archaeology evidence, they were Gold-aware away back in the BCs.
What we next find is Gold’s notably having outperformed Silver of late via the two-panel display of daily bars from three months ago-to-date for the yellow metal on the left and for the white metal on the right. Last year from mid-May to mid-July, the Gold/Silver ratio basically resided in the 70s. Today ’tis 102.7x, Sister Silver having yet again been led lower by cajoling Cousin Copper. “For shame, young lady, for shame!”
Still, by their respective 10-day Market Profiles, Silver (below right) has managed to work higher, positioned therein quite similarly to that of Gold (below left). And our sense is that Gold’s dominant volume supporter at the denoted 3237 price surely shall be tested in the new week:
To close it out, as earlier noted, Gold on Thursday reached an All-Time High of 3372, (indeed already +110 points above our year’s forecasted high of 3262). Our being curious to see the FinMedia’s acknowledging of the fresh All-Time High, we went to three key website main pages: Bloomy – no mention; Dow Jones Newswires: – no mention; CNBS – no mention.
Thus: do pardon our forgetting that — at the end of the day — Gold remains an inert relic. Or as ’tis said, “Nothing to see here” in this year-to-date chart of Gold, given every ounce bought must also be sold, (the “receding” volume, behold, per our MoneyFlow all told):
So, should Gold duly near-term flop, one ought fear not. Rather: be prepared to buy the drop!
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
18 April 2025 – 08:49 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets and many global exchanges are closed as the long weekend begins. Just a few notes: the S&P 500 now at 5283 is now -14.1% below its all-time high of 6147, and is “textbook oversold” through the past 11 trading days; the P/E however remains perilously high at 39.2x, even as Q1 Earnings Season is running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement; still, the Spoo settled its week -371 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). On the other hand, Gold — whist still fundamentally undervalued — is +352 points above its smooth valuation line and is “textbook overbought” these past five sessions. More tomorrow in our 805th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. StateSide bourses resume trading on Monday, however those for Europe not until Tuesday. Bonne Fête de Pâques à Tous!
17 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
This week’s final trading day finds at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper below the day’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has recorded yet another All-Time High, thus far today reaching up to 3372: price in real-time is currently +356 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is positive between Oil and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus being Long one and Short the other one). The Euro by its Market Profile is on its second most heavily-traded apex of the past fortnight at 1.1400, (the most heavily-traded being 1.1080). And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index and March’ Housing Starts/Permits.
16 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
Gold is significantly higher this morning in having made another All-Time High at 3312: price is +1.8% whereas that for Silver is but +0.7%, Copper weighing there -1.2%. Only the Bond and Silver are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. By Market Rhythms, our two best on a 24-test basis currently are (per usual) the non-BEGOS Yen’s both daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics; on the 10-test basis, the present best are the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s NAHB Housing Index, plus March’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with February’s Business Inventories.
15 April 2025 – 08:40 Central Euro Time
Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light to this time, although again, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) remain extremely wide: for example, that for the Spoo today is 245 points, (and yes, brokers have been broadcasting full initial margin requirements during recent sessions). Looking at Market Trends, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold are in ascent, the other five BEGOS components in descent. The Spoo by Market Values is -295 points “low” vis-à-a its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is for eight consecutive sessions “textbook oversold”, albeit fundamentally the Index continues as vastly overvalued, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 39.8x at this instant; its yield is 1.421% vs. 4.195% annualized on the 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro awaits April’s NY State Empire Index, plus March’s Ex/Im Prices.
14 April 2025 – 08:51 Central Euro Time
Gold on Friday tapped our forecast high for this year of 3262 indeed reaching a point higher to the now new All-Time High of 3263, all as detailed in The Gold Update. The abbreviated trading week at present finds both the Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold vis-à-vis its BEGOS Market Value shows (in real-time) as +277 points “high”; the yellow metal’s largest volume support price is 3160 (see Market Profiles). The Dollar Index since Friday has been trading below 100, that round number having previously proven as support during the second half of last September. Oil’s cac volume these next two days is moving from May into that for June. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, albeit 13 metrics are scheduled across the next three days. And Q1 Earnings Season picks up its pace a bit as the week unfolds.
The Gold Update: No. 804 – (12 April 2025) – “Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 804th Edition — Monte-Carlo — 12 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Taps Our Year’s Forecast High of 3262“
Yesterday (Friday) at 13:33 GMT, June Gold traded at 3262. ‘Tis our forecast high for this year as selected at New Year, and completes the triad of our three Golden Goals for 2025.
As yesterday’s session further unfolded, Gold retrenched, but briefly then made it to a point higher still at 3263 — the new All-Time High — before settling the week at 3255. And the five-day low-to-high run (2970-to-3263) of +9.9% was Gold’s best intra-week percentage gain since that ending 14 August 2020 when COVID covered the cosmos.
Yet on to “The Now” as straightaway we go to Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, which look nothing but great, price having made it to 3262 plus that extra point as icing on the cake:
Given 2025’s eventual total of 252 trading days, Gold reached our forecasted 3262 in just 70 sessions, which for those of you scoring at home means 72% of the year is still in the balance.
Thus the obvious question begged is: “Where Do We Go from Here?” –[Chicago, ’70].
Despite Gold having already achieved our upside goal, our call for getting there has been completely upside down. En route to 3262, we’d anticipated Gold initially to pullback lower into the 2800s/2700s/2600s, even specifically to as low as 2507(!) Instead through these first 15 weeks of 2025, just two have been down. Such like stint hasn’t occurred since having penned the second edition of The Gold Update away back on 28 November 2009!
But to Pete Cetera’s above crooning question, remember our writing at New Year that “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates … 2507. Then would follow the ascent to [the] forecast high of 3262…”
Our good man Squire then later questioned: “But mmb, what if the 2625 low is already in for this year?” to which we responded “…were that to turn out to be the case, then our forecast for a 3262 year’s high may be deemed in hindsight as modest.”
Similar was the case last year (for which we sought 2375, price then moving well beyond that to 2802). And now year-to-date, the low of 2625 (06 January) remains in place.
And thus as just penned this past 22 March: “…’IF‘ the low for this year is already in place … Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the ‘expected yearly trading range’ equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy…” Yep, no kiddin’, keep readin’.
However, one only gets one shot at a forecast; re-forecasting is verboten! But given price’s present momentum, 3400 from here (+4.5%) seems a mere stone’s throw, barring it suddenly going all wrong for Gold.
That stated, the tug-of-war continues between Gold being technically near-term overbought vs. fundamentally broad-term undervalued. The latter case is made evident by the opening Gold Scoreboard, price today (3255) being -15% below its Dollar debasement valuation of 3830.
But by our BEGOS Markets’ value method, the following year-over-year graphic of Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (2962) shows price presently as +293 points — i.e. +10% — too “HIGH”:
“So +293 points above value is pretty high, eh mmb? Congrats on the call, by the way…”
Thanks Squire. And indeed the current +293-point deviation is the second-highest century-to-date. ‘Twas only higher by +311 points upon the then All-Time Closing Gold High of 1900 back on 22 August 2011, from which in two months Gold fell -15% (snowballing to a -44% fall per the end of 2015). But more “recently” by percentage deviation, the last time ’twas by this much (+10%) was on 08 March 2022, after which price fell from 2058 to 1695 (-4.5%) come that year’s Bastille Day (14 July).
To be sure, if one labels “TT!” (“Trump Tariffs!”) as geopolitically Gold-boosting bedlam, price’s admirable rally is justifiable. The Dollar Index just took quite a hit in sporting a weekly settle below 100 for the first time since that ending (believe it or not again) on Bastille Day 2023. A Swiss Franc that day cost $1.1680 … today ’tis $1.2368. Got Gold? Got Swiss?? Here’s the solid “Safe-Haven Two-Fer” that one cannot miss: Miss Helvetia!
Such mirthful jubilation aside, you strident Gold aficionados well-understand what follows geopolitically-induced price spikes: reversion to the mean. Yes, we fully comprend that “It’s different this time” … ’tis always different this time … until ’tisn’t. We thus remain sensitively wary for Gold’s price to be suddenly jerked into reverse. Indeed such down stints have been lurking of late: on each of 03, 04 and 07 April, Gold recorded intra-day declines of more than -100 points; they’ve just been lost in the sensationalized shuffle.
Shuffling down net-net since mid-February is the Economic Barometer. Perhaps worse: are we DEflating? After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recording deflationary readings in three of its four key Price Indices for March: the headline paces at both the Consumer and Producer levels were negative as was the latter’s core pace. ‘Course the “Fed-favoured” paces of Personal Consumption Expenditures shan’t be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis until 30 April. But should negativity also therein lie, the Federal Open Market Committee surely shall cut their Bank’s Funds Rate per the 07 May Policy Statement. Too, of the Baro’s nine incoming metrics this past week, just two were “positive”: March’s Treasury Budget was less negative, and Wholesale Inventories for February were worked down. So in going to the year-over-year picture, just as the stock market can be a hedge against inflation, so too can it be a broken dam to deflation as such ebbing tide lowers all boats:
Next we turn to trend consistency for the precious metals as measured by their baby blue dots. Below for Gold on the left, despite price’s “mega-spike” of nearly +200 points for the past week, the “Baby Blues” have become a bit unglued; certainly so for Silver on the right, the aforeshown Gold/Silver ratio at present a whopping 101.1x:
Thus as we view the 10-day Market Profiles for the yellow metal (below left) and white metal (below right), ’tis not surprising to find Gold’s closing white bar near the top of the chart, whilst that for Silver is mid-range. ‘Course the culprit there is Cousin Copper, the red metal within the past three weeks posting a high-to-low blow of -25% from 5.374 (26 March) to 4.030 (07 April). Oh those “TT!”
Toward the wrap, here’s the stack:
The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3830
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 3263 (11 April 2025)
2025’s High: 3263 (11 April 2025)
10-Session directional range: up to 3263 (from 2973) = +290 points or +9.8%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 3255 (11 April 2025)
Trading Resistance: none by the Profile
Gold Currently: 3255, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 75 points)
Trading Support: nearby 3247 and 3235, then 3160
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 3116
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 2970
2025’s Low: 2625 (06 January)
The 300-Day Moving Average: 2549 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
So does Gold’s stellar run stop here, essentially at our 3262 forecast high for this year? Until we actually experience the coming effect of “TT!”, its babble and prattle shall the markets still rattle. But like everything else, be it geopolitically, monetarily, financially or whateverly, “TT!” eventually will fall from the FinMedia headlines and, in turn, Gold experience descent to some extent. Either way, what a gut-grippin’ Gold ride we’ve spent!
11 April 2025 – 08:43 Central Euro Time
Gold has come quite near to our 3262 forecast high for this year, trading this morning up to 3242 before pulling back; our “high if an up day” for Gold today is 3257, thus 3262 is plausible were there an ensuing price push. Gold is, as is the Euro, at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is firmly moderate, the Euro notably having already traced 138% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, extreme deviations remain for the five primary BEGOS components: in real-time the Bond shows as -3^19 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.055 points above same, Gold as +260 points above same, Oil as -7.52 below same and the Spoo as -422 points below same. The Swiss Franc (1.2233) is essentially at a 14-year high. ‘Tis March wholesale inflation day for the Econ Baro via the PPI, plus the initial April Sentiment read from UofM.
10 April 2025 – 08:51 Central Euro Time
Yesterday sported the fourth largest percentage low-to-high run since at least 1980 for the S&P 500: +10.8%. More on “Wacky Wednesday” in next Saturday’s 804th edition of The Gold Update. At present, only Gold is above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, again within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been blown out. We’ve gone on quite a bit in recent weeks about the Spoo being too low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Tuesday’s differential being -839 points: a substantive portion of that was reduced yesterday such that now in real-time ’tis -340 points. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus to be simultaneously Long or Short both of them). Metrics for the Econ Baro today include retail inflation for March via the CPI, and late in the session the month’s Treasury Budget.
09 April 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time
At present, only Oil is within today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate, whilst below same are the Bond and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. By Market Rhythms our best are currently (10-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and Gold’s 2hr parabolics; again (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. At Market Trends, save for the EuroCurrencies, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other BEGOS components. Our internally-measured MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 is inconsistent across its three key timeframes: the one-week measure suggests the Index ought be +50 points higher than ’tis; the one-month measure +136 points higher; but the one-quarter measure -919 points lower: the take-away is near-term higher, then broad-term lower, which too is the near-term technical stances per by the Spoo’s Market Values, but broad-term the fundamental reality of the very high P/E (“live” now 35.0x futs-adj’d). The Econ Baro awaits February’s Wholesale Inventories. Then late in the session come the FOMC Minutes from the 18-19 March meeting.
08 April 2025 – 08:52 Central Euro Time
The BEGOS Markets at present find the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Oil and the Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other three components are below same, and volatility is moderate, albeit in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have substantively widened in recent sessions: for example, a year ago today the Spoo’s EDTR was 51 points (price then 5257) whereas for today (price currently 5174) ’tis 165 points. Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency yesterday broke below the key +80% axis, making us anticipative of still lower price levels: by Market Values in real-time, Gold still is +79 points above its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is -681 points below same, even as the S&P 500 itself fundamentally remains quite overvalued give its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at 37.1x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, however as previously noted, Q1 Earnings Season has commenced, which you can follow day-by-day on that page.
07 April 2025 – 08:45 Central Euro Time
Selling of equities looks to continue: adjusting the Spoo at present to Fair Value, the S&P 500 (were the StateSide market to open at this instant) would trade sub-5000 for the first time since 25 April a year ago. ‘Tis worth noting with the Spoo -4.4%, the -7% “lock limit” would apply at 4740. At present along with the Spoo below their respective Neutral Zones are both Gold and Oil; above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again firmly moderate and then some: both Silver and Copper (the latter at present back inside today’s Neutral Zone) have traced in excess of 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal still as being technically overbought near-term but fundamentally undervalued broad-term, whilst ’tis the opposite cases for the S&P 500, (technically oversold, fundamentally overvalued). The Econ Baro looks late in the session to February’s Consumer Credit. And Q1 Earnings Season gets underway.
The Gold Update: No. 803 – (05 April 2025) – “Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 803rd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 05 April 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Comes Off; Stocks Finally Boffed“
Long-time readers of The Gold Update know our favourite final future headline is: “World Ends, Dow +2”, (“The Dow” of course being that Index at which our parents used to look) … except these last two days instead brought Dow -3,911 … just in case you’re scoring at home.
“The Dow” thus having gone down, obviously, the world didn’t end, albeit as a seasoned investor here said earlier in the week: “Nobody at Goldman has ever experienced a down market”. Hence the hysteria over something way overdue, certainly so across these last few years.
Indeed on the heels of last week’s missive “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”, an ever-so long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst was finally revealed in the form of a StateSide attempt for tax equality on imported goods. (See our personal experience closing wrap on that). More catalyst crash considerations later. But first, let’s cut to the quick.
Thursday and Friday saw Gold — itself overdue to come off — finally so do whilst stocks got boffed … and Sister Silver summarily slaughtered in loss … all below summarized in this BEGOS Markets’ two-day net change table nonetheless featuring Gold now as 2025’s boss:
And still up +15.8% for the year, Gold this past Wednesday recorded another All-Time High at 3202: that’s a mere 60 points away from our Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262. But then the selling ensued, price settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 3056. Through the 14 trading weeks year-to-date, ’twas just the second that was down. But yes, Virginia, Gold (below left) now at 3056 still shows technically near-term as +110 points “high” above its smooth valuation line of 2946, whereas the S&P 500 (below right) by the like metric for the futures is -787 points “low”:
Again, we emphasize that is technically near-term: Gold is too high and the S&P 500 too low; (and you can find such stances as updated daily on the website’s BEGOS Market Values page). But fundamentally broad-term, ’tis comprehensively au contraire, mes chères soeurs et frères! True valuation of Gold is mathematically solved per debasement of the U.S. Dollar, whereas for the S&P ’tis by a rational generation of earnings.
Thus in the following table wherein Gold for the moment is +3.7% overvalued and the S&P -13.6% undervalued, of far greater importance is Gold being -20.2% undervalued (per our opening Scoreboard by Dollar Debasement) and the S&P +40.2% overvalued (per our “live” price/earnings ratio initiated a dozen years ago):
“So what you’re saying, mmb, is this sudden S&P ‘crash’ is just peanuts in the bigger picture, eh?”
Squire, throughout the 68-year existence of the S&P 500, the evolving average of its p/e always reverts to its mean. We’ll spare you the math history, but per the above table wherein we’ve calculated price by p/e as +40.2% too high — assuming earnings growth remains rather muted — price “ought” correct from here by another -28.7%, ultimately placing the S&P in the 3600s. Remember: had COVID never happened, regressing the S&P’s growth track puts it today at best in the low 3000s. But therein lies the good news: the $7T post-COVID “accounting entry” (by which the S&P made it up into the 6000s) remains in the monetary system: thus just as swiftly as dough has left the S&P, so too can it go back into the S&P, see? For the investor, ’tis at present high stress. For the trader, ’tis as present high times. Either way, a ferocious “relief rally” for the S&P wouldn’t surprise us a wit.
That said, this next graphic does not portend well for the S&P 500 as it shows a provisional negative MACD (moving average convergence divergence) crossover on the monthly candles. ‘Course, it would confirm at month-end, (barring first a significant recovery). Yikes…
And as earlier noted with respect to a long-awaited Stocks Crash Catalyst, we’ve oft referred to the “Look Ma, No Earnings!” crash and/or the “Look Ma, No Money!” crash. To be sure as we’ve underscored ad nauseam across many-a-missive, earnings have become meaningless, and the amount of money “invested” in the S&P 500 (aka “Casino 500”) is better than twice the size of the actual readily-available money supply to cover it all. But in awaiting the now appointed “Tariffs!” catalyst, recall what we penned back on 22 February: “Is this at long last the beginning of the end of the Investing Age of Stoopid? Either way, as to the media’s perfect scapegoat upon whom to lay blame… think about it.” Bingo.
But these past five days were not an ongoing “Bingo!” by Gold’s weekly bars as next shown. The rightmost bar high-to-low was by percentage (-5.3%) Gold’s worst intra-week loss since that ending last 22 November, whilst on a points basis (-187) the worst since that ending 14 August 2020. ‘Course year-to-date, again, +15.8% is great. But Silver’s -15.6% two-day slaughter pushed her ratio from Gold up to 103.5x, the highest reading since 14 May 2020. Priced instead to the century-to-date evolving average of 68.9x Silver right now would be +50% above her present 29.53 level at 44.38! “GOT SILVER?“ More on her in a bit. Here’s Gold’s graphic:
As to the Economic Barometer, the past week gave it a bit of a boost: seven of the 12 incoming metrics improved period-over-period, the best standout being March’s ADP Employment data which also beat consensus as well as having February revised upward. Negatively however, Unemployment picked up a pip whilst both the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services Indices declined. ‘Course, the obvious lowlight in the graphic is the S&P 500 (red line). Here’s the year-over-year view:
On to the precious metals daily bars for the past three months-to-date and 10-day Market Profiles. First we’ve those for Gold, her “Baby Blues” (at left) of trend consistency appearing to run out of puff; in the Profile (at right) we find it mostly populated by overhead resistors as labeled:
Second, there’s the like drill for poor ol’ Sister Silver: Slaughtered, creamed, annihilated, ’tis one of her worst graphics on record. So much so, that we present last week’s five trading days using red bars on the left. As for her Profile, ’tis nothing but resistance on the right. And specific to these past two days, Silver abandoned her precious metal pinstripes for her industrial metal jacket in inebriated sympathetic (indeed simply pathetic) decline (-15.6%) with Cousin Copper (-12.8%). In fact, Silver percentage-wise lost in just two days what Gold has gained year-to-date (+15.8%)! We can’t bear to look!
We’ll wrap up here for this week with a little personal experience tariff talk.
We (on the very rare occasion) make a purchase that is shipped from the United States. Our most recent case was $99 worth of a specific popping corn we simply cannot find on this side of The Pond. The shipping charge was $25, and thus the all-in cost paid to the exporter was $124.
Then came the fun part in order to take receipt of the shipment.
A customs tariff of €28 ($29) was levied along with the beloved value-added tax of €35 ($37) for an all-in cost of $190 for $99 worth of popping corn. Ex-shipping, 40% of the cost went to tariff and tax.
No wonder the “Leader of the Free world” is fired up. Just don’t let ’em get your Gold!
A team player, our Squire. Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”: @deMeadvillePro
04 April 2025 – 08:50 Central Euro Time
Sister Silver suffered the worst yesterday amongst the BEGOS Markets: her -8.8% net loss was the white metal’s worst since 11 August 2020; more on the metals and markets in tomorrow’s 803rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Following yesterday’s beat-down, (save for the Bond and EuroCurrencies), we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are again the Metals Triumvirate and Oil; (the Spoo is within same); session volatility is firmly moderate, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Given yesterday’s material moves, the five primary BEGOS components are positioned (in real-time) as follows vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines (see Market Values): the Bond is just over +3 points “high”, the Euro +0.039 points “high”, Gold (despite its being sold) +170 points “high”, Oil -2.95 points “low”, and the Spoo deeply oversold by this metric at -471 points “low”; of course, for the S&P 500 itself, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) still remains up in the silly zone at 37.1x; thus there’s rightly still a long way to fall. The Econ Baro closes its weeks with March’s Payrolls.
03 April 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
The Spoo is presently positioned such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould immediately fall -3.0%; the last time the S&P completed a session down by at least that much was on 13 September 2022 (-4.3%). The Dollar Index is down to its lowest level (102.425) since 09 October. The Bond and EuroCurrencies are currently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Metals Triumvirate, Oil, and Spoo; session volatility is robust with five of the eight BEGOS Markets tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Silver is getting notably sold, -4.8%, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio up to 94.2x; Gold itself is -1.5% and by its Market Value is (in real-time) nonetheless +197 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are March’s ISM(Svc) Index and February’s Trade Deficit.
02 April 2025 – 08:44 Central Euro Time
The Bond is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our best are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, both Silver’s 8hr Parabolics and 2hr Price Oscillator, plus Copper’s 8hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus its daily Parabolics and 15mn MACD, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Moneyflow. As anticipated, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have in real-time provisionally crossed under their +80% axis suggestive of still lower prices near-term. The Econ Baro awaits March’s ADP Employment data plus February’s Factory Orders. And 20:00 GMT brings the StateSide tariffs address.
01 April 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Gold (basis June) has made yet another All-Time High at 3177, albeit price has now pulled back to presently be within today’s Neutral Zone; the only BEGOS Market outside (above) of same is the Bond, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond yesterday pierced up through its Market Magnet, whilst Copper has moved below same; Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are rolling over such that they many breach below the key +80% by mid-week, then suggestive of still lower price levels. Oil has furthered our anticipation of its rising, now up into the 71s. Q1 kicks off for the Econ Baro with March’s ISM(Mfg) Index and February’s Construction Spending.
31 March 2025 – 08:33 Central Euro Time
The Bond, Gold, Silver and Oil are all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traced 129% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s remarkable rally, yet remains wary for some material degree of pullback to unwind the near-term overbought state of price, which in (real-time) is +228 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); moreover the Update also depicts the inconsistant inflation readings, and sees significantly lower levels for the S&P 500 as the year unfolds, with the 4000s in the offing, (which from its present level is only some -10% lower). For the Econ Baro today we’ve March’s Chi PMI.
The Gold Update: No. 802 – (29 March 2025) – “Gold Aware, Stocks Beware”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 802nd Edition — Monte-Carlo — 29 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold Aware, Stocks Beware“
Well! Can we all say “Gold 3100!” After all, why stop at 3000? For this past Thursday as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per Tag Team from ’93): “Whoomp! There It Is!” as 3100 June Gold traded, indeed yesterday (Friday) to as high as 3124!
‘Course, from the “Nitty-Picky Dept.”, spot Gold didn’t quite get there, reaching up to only 3085, with the April contract going off the board at 3090. Yet given our year’s Golden Goal Three forecast high of 3262, (let alone the above Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement Gold valuation of 3825), ’tis merely a matter of time for spot 3100… and beyond!
Regardless (and you knew this was coming): all the new-found Gold euphoria aside, yes, we remain expectant for some material degree of price decline. ‘Tis technically so by our BEGOS valuation of Gold depicting it as +173 points “high” (price then always reverting to valuation). ‘Tis fundamentally so by inflation’s inability to efface toward a “Fed-favoured” pace. Let’s have a look.
Technically we’ve our year ago-to-date chart of price’s daily closes vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line which assesses Gold’s movement relative to those of the four other primary BEGOS Markets, namely the Bond, Euro, Oil and S&P 500. As shown, Gold is presently priced at 3090, but the valuation line is 2917: thus we’ve the +173-point difference which will get closed, aided as well by the smooth line itself being on the rise:
Fundamentally for inflation through February, ’tis said you can “pick your poison” per our puke-green table below, wherein:
- Should you side with The Bureau of Labor Statistics (which calculates both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index), the pace of inflation slowed for the month, the core PPI itself being deflationary;
- If instead to go with the Fed, The Bureau of Economic Analysis‘ Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in well-ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred annualized rate of +2.0%.
But: to average the six annualized measures for February, ’tis magically spot-on at +2.0% So if you’re an Open Market Committee member, query: Who to believe? What to do? Lower, maintain, or raise? (To be sure, ’tis FinMedia-verboten to even mention the phrase “Fed rate raise”). Yet what? No cut? Cue King Crimson crooner Greg Lake from ’69: “Confusion will be my epitaph…” as here’s the table:
Either way, Gold is the momentum play … or is it? There being but one trading day remaining in March, indeed in Q1, let’s see where the real year-to-date momentum is as the Metals Triumvirate still tops our BEGOS Markets Standings, the podium placers being the red metal (+27%), the white metal (+19%) and the yellow metal (+17%) “Got inflation?” Gold aware, stocks beware: look at last place. Here’s the whole bunch:
“But with Copper making all-time highs, isn’t that great for the economy, mmb?”
Traditionally, Squire, Copper is said to lead the economy. ‘Course with “TT” (“Trump Tariffs”) dominating the newsflow, Copper naturally gets a surge, initially as a negative given it can increase inflation’s pace, but perhaps more broadly as a positive should manufacturing materially return StateSide and elicit higher real Gross Domestic Product. But definitely mind Copper as it does tend to lead the price of Gold, the red metal having fallen these last two days in-a-row.
As for the noted cellar-dweller in the above Standings, we’ve the S&P 500 -5% year-to-date. You may well have read that oft-dubitable Goldman Sachs just reduced their year-end S&P target to 6200. “Ahh, youth!” Our sense is to replace their “6” with a “4”. Still to their credit, that post-COVID $7T continues to slosh about … but are equities finally losing their “only game in town” status? For those of you scoring at home: annualized, the riskfull S&P yield is now 1.368%; the riskless three-month U.S. T-Bill’s is now 4.188%. Even those WestPalmBeachers down there can discern which is better; (well, maybe not…)
“But, mmb, the Bipartisan Policy Center just said the ‘X-Date’ for Treasury default is July-October…”
Squire loves welcoming Wall Street to real life. And welcome to Treasury, Scott “This we got” Bessent.
Really real life is enjoying Gold about to complete its tenth winning month of the past 13. On a mutually-exclusive basis, 10 wins out of 13 has occurred but three other times so far this century. And by the week from a year ago-to-date, below is our graphic of the enduring Gold streak. Therein, just 18 weeks have been down whilst basically double that — 35 — have been up. Here’s the Long and Short of it:
And in keeping with our month-end mode, let’s next look at leverage via the year-over-year graphic for the Golden percentage tracks of Gold & Bros. From low-to-high, there’s Franco-Nevada (FNV) +37%, both Gold itself and Newmont (NEM) +41%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +52%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +53%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +86%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)+92%. Too, a magnificent charter reader has asked we give special mention to Alamos Gold (AGI) aka “The Agnico of the Mid-Tiers” which +84% year-over-year would be tucked in just below AEM and PAAS. “Remember the Alamos!”
Near-term for the precious metals, these are their 10-day Market Profiles featuring Gold on the left and Silver on the right. Notable volume apices of the past fortnight are as labeled, the yellow metal (quoted by the June contract) showing support initially at 3114, then more so in the 3068-3055 zone, whilst the white metal’s key supporters are 34.75 and 34.25:
Broad-term for Gold we’ve the 16-year monthly candles across price’s structure. Remember the old trading axiom that “Triple tops are meant to be broken”? Oh my goodness…
Thus it again being month-end, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS Markets for the past 21 trading days (one month) along with their grey trendlines and baby blue dots depicting the day-to-day consistency of each trend. And yields having been a bit on the rise find the Bond’s price in recent demise, albeit gaining a safe-haven Friday bid as the S&P 500 fell from the skies. Note, too, per the website’s Prescient Commentary a couple of weeks back when Oil was in the 65s that the “Baby Blues” were then heralding a run to the low 70s … et voilà:
So as tomorrow we slide EuroSide to summer hours, let’s close it out for this week with (yet another) shocking stat for the S&P 500. ‘Course, you regular readers know the two “ongoing-in-perpetuity” shocks of 1) the “live” price/earnings for the S&P now at 40.2x — yes, that’s after Friday’s -2.0% fall — and 2) the current market cap of the S&P now $49.1T versus a “readily available” M2 money supply of less than half that at $21.8T. (Is your brokerage preparing its IOUs?)
Here’s our next shock. Per the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings, again the worst year-to-date loser is the S&P -5.1%. If we regress by the day from New Year the track of the S&P’s closing price (which currently is 5581), and extrapolate such trend to year-end, the Index then first settles in the 4000s come 12 August, on track to finish the year -25% at 4386. This varies a bit from Goldman’s 6200, but we tend to notice little things like that.
Because we don’t forget big things like this:
28 March 2025 – 08:38 Central Euro Time
Both the Bond and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has achieved yet another All-Time High this morning, the June cac thus far trading up to 3124: by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +176 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, a very extreme deviation which can begin to be closed should the “Fed-favoured” inflation of PCE data not be indicative of slowing; ’twill arrive later today for the Econ Baro, and of course, more on it all in tomorrow’s 802nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As for the other primary BEGOS components’ deviations from Market Values, we show both the Bond and Oil as basically right on their valuation lines, the Euro as +0.0312 points “high” and the Spoo as -200 points “low”. As for Copper’s recent robust rally to all-time highs, by Market Trends, the red metal’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are depicting the early signs of having run out of puff. EuroSide, we move forward Sunday to summer hours.
27 March 2025 – 08:42 Central Euro Time
At present we’ve Gold above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst Oil is below same, (but not before having yesterday reached up into our low 70s’ target area); volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s cac volume is moving from April into that for June, with +29 points of fresh premium (in turn inducing a “faux” new All-Time High). As anticipated, by Market Trends the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency confirmed falling below the key +80% axis: thus we look for lower price levels near-term. Silver at present is spot-on its most volume-dominant price (34.25) of the past fortnight, (see Market Profiles). And a day ahead of the “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data, today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.
26 March 2025 – 08:41 Central Euro Time
As was the same case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; by Market Ranges, the red metal already has traced 125% its EDTR to an all-time high at 5.3740; overall session volatility is otherwise light. For our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the current standouts are Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily price Oscillator and 30mn MACD; on a 24-test basis, our current leaders are again the Yen’s daily price Oscillator along with its daily Parabolics, plus both the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics. We’ve previously mentioned the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below the key +80% axis; now provisionally doing the same are those for the Swiss Franc. And for the Econ Baro we await February’s Durable Orders.
25 March 2025 – 08:29 Central Euro Time
At present, the only BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone is Copper; session volatility is quite light with to this point just an average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 28%. The Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency having broken below their key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels to come. The S&P 500, after having been 19 consecutive trading sessions “textbook oversold” finally unwound that condition yesterday; the +1.8% relief rally has now put the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E up to 42.9x; lurking for April/May is a MACD negative crossover on the S&P’s monthly candles, broadly suggestive of further Index lows as the year unfolds. The Econ Baro gets back into gear today with March’s Consumer Confidence and February’s New Home Sales.
24 March 2025 – 08:10 Central Euro Time
The week starts to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Gold Update applauds the yellow metal’s wonderful uptrend — incorporating yet another All-Time High (3065) this past Thursday — however reiterates our wariness for price to pullback by a few hundred points, typical in the past of similar technical near-term “overvaluations”; (of course fundamentally broad-term, Gold remains well-undervalued). As anticipated, the Spoo is getting a good bid such that the S&P 500 may open nearly a full 1% higher: regardless, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.0x and the yield (1.347) less than one-third that of the annualized 3mo U.S. T-Bill (4.185%). Too continues Oil’s recent recovery: by its BEGOS Market Value, ‘twould appear price shall move up through its smooth valuation line as the week unfolds towards the anticipated low 70s. ‘Tis a again quiet day for the Econ Baro, the week’s highlight arriving Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE reading for February.
The Gold Update: No. 801 – (22 March 2025) – “Gold’s Year of the Bid”
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie — 801st Edition — Monte-Carlo — 22 March 2025 (published each Saturday) — www.deMeadville.com
“Gold’s Year of the Bid“
Thus far in 2025, ’tis been the year of the Gold bid. Folks who are clueless on Gold are abashedly asking about it. “How much is it?” “How do I buy it?” “How much is in Fort Knox?” “How do I store it?” “How much is it taxed?” “How do I get it outta the UK?”
Indeed, we too query: has our having penned 800 Gold Updates finally made the world Gold crazy? That century-to-date — although the S&P 500 is + 329% (from 1320 to 5668) — that Gold’s growth is triple that at +1,005% (from 274 to 3028)? ‘Tis clear that this year the Golden lightbulb has suddenly gone aglow and everybody’s excited to give Gold a bid, even wee London:
Naturally, we’re also excited. Based on the linear regression pace at which Gold is rising so far in 2025, ‘twould reach our year’s forecast high — Golden Goal Three of 3262 — on 07 May: that’s a mere 32 trading days from now, with then nearly eight months left in the year’s balance!
“I dunno mmb, but if it happens that fast, then what?”
Two generalizations there, Squire. “IF” the low for this year is already in place (2625 on 06 January), Gold has a shot at 3400 (or purely in the “expected yearly trading range” equation, 3380), fundamentally supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in concert with a slowing StateSide economy. Contrarily, stagflation sets in and the Fed is stuck, perhaps even having to raise its FundsRate to slow rising costs, the Dollar then getting the bid away from Gold, which in turn travels toward such downside range in revisiting the 2700s, 2600s, 2500s. In the meantime, next Friday (28 March) bring February’s “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Personal Consumption Expenditures.
For as can be the case with markets — excitement breeds near-term excessiveness. Through this year’s 55 trading days-to-date, Gold (as is its current case) has been “textbook overbought” for 45 of them. We refer to it as “textbook” as ’tis visible to the trading public at large should they care to access such available mix of standardly-used technical studies, our preferred cocktail consisting of John Bollinger’s Bands, Relative Strength and Stochastics.
Better still (albeit far less publicly-viewed) is the website’s BEGOS Markets Value for Gold, which just completed a 52nd consecutive trading day above its smooth valuation line, price next shown as +139 points “high”:
Hardly is 52 days above that line a record (the most in the past 25 years being 75 days); however upon reaching 52 days, price then on average within the ensuing 63 trading days (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there is one trading quarter) has fallen -7%. Thus per Gold having settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 3028 — posting en route a fresh All-Time High at 3065 — a slide within such -7% vacuum would be some -200 points from here, i.e. relatively in line with our having suggested that the road to Golden Goal Three of 3262 may well first travel through the 2700s-2600s, even to as low as 2507 … just in case you’re scoring at home. For unlike the Nvidias or Palantirs or Gamestops or even Bitcoins of the world, Gold is not (barring a U.S. Treasury default) going to go straight up: ’tis too globally liquid for the offers to just “vanish”.
The point is: be thee not discouraged should price pullback a few hundred points, for the ultimate Gold target as ever remains the opening Scoreboard’s Dollar debasement value which at present is 3803. Hence as depicted in the above graphic: “Near-term, Gold is too high … ‘Course broadly, Gold is too low!”
Either way, Gold’s year-over-year trend remains nothing short (pun!) of amazing! To wit, Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date astride the ever-rising parabolic Long trend per the rightmost blue dots:
And therein note the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x, the current 90.3x level being the second-highest weekly close so far this year. Priced to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 68.8x, Silver — rather than being 33.53 today — would instead be +31% higher at 44.00 “Got Silver?” … (a rhetorical question for our resourceful readers).
From having recently been less resourceful to flatlining this past week is the Economic Barometer. Oh, there were incoming metrics aplenty: 16 of ’em … of which seven bettered their like reading of the prior period and nine were worse. The week’s best winner was February’s Existing Home Sales which bettered both consensus and January’s number, such prior month also revised higher. But the stinkers were March’s National Association of Home Builders Index taking quite a tumble (from 42 to 39), as did the month’s New York State Empire Index (from +5.7 to -20.0).
‘Course, the week’s non-event highlight was the Federal Open Markets Committee’s “sitting on its hands” Policy Statement. But in conspicuous contrast to the sudden stumble by the Econ Baro, did you read the FOMC’s opening sentence of its Statement? ‘Tis below embedded:
Not to be overly critical of The Fed, but might its referred “recent indicators” be from last September during which time the Baro — as you can well see — was firmly rising? After all, you know the long-running saying that “The Fed is behind the curve.” Perhaps esteemed voting member (and ChiFedPrez) Austan “The Gools” Goolsbee could shed some light on such recent “solid pace”. Anyway, we’ll instead stick with the actual math.
Turning to the math that makes our “Baby Blues”, they are ever-smoothly in synch with Gold’s moves, either up or down. Such measure of regression trend consistency as below shown on the left is fairly well-paired with price across the past three months, albeit Gold has dropped for two successive days even as the dominant trend is up. And on the right in Gold’s 10-day market Profile we see 3043 as the highest-volume handle traded these past two weeks, its role at present that of overhead resistance with notable near-term volume support at 2996:
As for poor ol’ Sister Silver, she has declined for three straight sessions, her like graphic from three months ago-to-date below left and Market Profile below right. Therein, her dominant volume resistor is 34.35:
Gold’s Year of the Bid indeed! We’re a bit surprised to see the yellow metal moving so swiftly toward Golden Goal Three of 3262. Through the year’s first 12 weeks, only one has been down: such stints of 11 up weeks in 12 have only occurred (as a mutually-exclusive basis) on five other occasions so far this century. The average price fallout following those five instances within the ensuing three months? -9%, which again “suggests” similar downside to the aforeshown currently streaking Market Value’s “price over valuation differential” that has historically then led to an average -7% drop. But as we on occasion caution: “Average is not Reality” especially given Gold’s strong bid this year. Still as stated, we shan’t be surprised to see Gold revisit the 2700s, etc.
And in Gold’s year of the bid if such pullback must be, better it indeed be prior to our 3262 Golden Goal Three!
21 March 2025 – 08:35 Central Euro Time
When all eight BEGOS Markets are down, we know the Dollar is up; of note across the sea of red, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency confirmed closing above their key -80% axis: this portends (by fib) a run up to at least the 5800s and potentially the 5900s should the February high-March low have a full Golden Ratio retracement; too, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook oversold” near-term. For Oil, per its “Baby Blues” and Market Magnet, as anticipated, price has moved from the 65s to now being in the 68s with the 69s-low 70s reasonably in the balance. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until Tuesday, this week’s 16 incoming having flat-lined the economic track rather than see it further weaken; more on it all in tomorrow’s 801st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
20 March 2025 – 08:47 Central Euro Time
The Euro at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets remains light to this hour. Our best correlation currently amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 has (futs-adj’d) moved back above 40 (now 40.2x); the Index’s yield is 1.353% vs. the risk-free 3-month T-Bill’s 4.190%; technically the S&P is now 17 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold” despite fundamentally remaining dangerously overvalued. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with a busy schedule of incoming metrics which include March’s Philly Fed Index, February’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.