Mark

As we saw ’round this time yesterday, trading in the BEGOS Markets is quite narrow, all eight components at present within today’s Neutral Zones and volatility is very light, albeit in the context that trading ranges have expanded significantly in recent months. Yesterday’s PCE data for February was not Fed-friendly as we’ll further display in tomorrow’s 856th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The leading MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 cautiously suggests lower levels are ahead: by our page thereto, on the one-week basis the Index “ought be” -91 points lower than ’tis (currently 6825), on the one-month basis -139 points lower, and on the one-quarter basis a more dire -807 points lower; as trading/investing entities start to sense this going forward, it can pressure prices. The Econ Baro wraps the week with April’s UofM Sentiment Survey, March’s CPI and Treasury Deficit, plus February’s Factory Orders.

“Quiet” is the watchword for the BEGOS Markets thus far, all eight at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is exceptionally light. That noted, there still exist some near-term valuation extremes are we go ’round the horn for the Market Values of the five primary BEGOS components, where in real-time we’ve: the Bond -3^19 points “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.015 points “low”, Gold -377 points “low”, Oil +13.79 points “high” and the Spoo -67 points “low”. Yesterday’s net -12.5% drop in Oil was sufficient to confirm price settling below its Market Magnet of 101.50, (currently price 97.52). Yesterday’s MoneyFlow into the S&P 500 was not fully supportive of the +2.5% up move, such leading indicator instead (regressed into S&P points) being +1.7%. The Econ Baro awaits metrics including the “Fed-favoured” PCE data for February, plus that month’s Personal Income/Spending and Wholesale Inventories, as well as the final revision to Q4 GDP.

Suspension for two weeks of the war sees Oil down as much as -17.5% from last evening’s settle, current price 94.80 and below its Neutral Zone for today; above same are all the seven other BEGOS Markets, and session volatility (not surprisingly) is mostly robust. The Dollar Index is down more than -1% for third time year-to-date; the EuroCurrencies thus are getting a strong bid, the Euro itself by Market Trends finding its linreg having rotated from negative to positive, (that for the Swiss Franc lagging in such respect). Gold up to 4888 is nearly a three-week high: recall that Gold by its BEGOS Market Value has been deeply oversold, such real-time reading still finding price -285 points below its smooth valuation line. And the Spoo is firm such that were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould so do +2.7%. Whilst nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, late in the session we’ve the FOMC 17/18 March meeting minutes.

Oil is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility to this point is light. By their Market Profiles, the Bond, Swiss Franc and Spoo all moved yesterday above their most volume-dominant prices for the past 10 trading days, whilst Silver dropped below same, albeit today there so far lacks much continued direction. Looking at our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, Copper’s 6hr Moneyflow and the Euro’s 1hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis the leaders are Copper’s 15mn Parabolics, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 30mn Price Oscillator and the Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow. The Econ Baro awaits February’s Durable Orders, plus late in the session that month’s Consumer Credit. And Q1 Earnings Season is officially underway: for Q4, 71% (an above-average pace) of S&P 500 reporting constituents bettered their bottom line of Q4 a year earlier.

‘Tis Easter Monday on this side of The Pond, but StateSide ’tis a full trading day for the BEGOS Markets, for which at present we’ve Copper as the sole component outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal’s record Q1 price volatility, overwhelming that which we’ve seen across the prior 25 years. And whilst by Market Trends the linregs remain negative for all of the BEGOS except Oil, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising notably for the Metals Triumvirate, the Bond and Spoo. The Econ Baro has a very busy week of 15 incoming metrics, including February’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data (Thursday) such that we’ll complete our inflation table through that month. Today for the Baro comes March’s ISM(Svc) Index.

As noted yesterday, whilst today is a holiday for western bourses, because of the exceptional occurrence of this Good Friday falling on the first Friday of the month when StateSide Payrolls are released, the Bond, Currencies and Spoo are in abbreviated trading sessions such that they can respond to the data; none of those BEGOS Markets have (as yet) moved materially. Tomorrow brings the 855th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update, indeed our month and quarter-ending piece. Happy Easter!

‘Tis the final trading day of the week, wherein at present — save for Oil being above its Neutral Zone for today — we’ve nothing but red for the seven other BEGOS Markets, all below said Zones; session volatility is mostly robust following the U.S.’ intent to ramp up war operations toward completion. As provisionally noted yesterday, both the Bond and Gold have now confirmed their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency having crossed above the key -80% axis: however both markets are well down today (Bond -0.8%, Gold -3.8%). Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our leaders (10-test basis) are Copper’s 6hr Moneyflow and both Gold’s 12hr Parabolics and 1hr Price Oscillator; too, (24-test basis), we’ve the non-BEGOS Yen’s 15mn Moneyflow, Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and Silver’s 30mn Parabolics. Today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include February’s Trade Deficit. Whilst western bourses are closed tomorrow, we’ll nonetheless have a brief comment, noting that StateSide Payrolls shall be reported, for which the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo have an abbreviated Friday session so as to respond to the data.

Yesterday’s +2.9% net gain in the S&P 500 was the largest since 13 May a year ago (+3.3%); that for Gold of +4.2% was the most since 03 February (+6.2%). At present, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, yesterday both Silver and Copper confirmed their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency having moved above their key -80% axes, indicative of still higher prices near-term; today, the Blues for Gold have provisionally moved up above same. Oil (98.36) has traded down to just above its most volume-dominant Market Profile price of 98.00. Scheduled metrics for the Econ Baro are March’s ADP employment data and ISM(Mfg) Index, February’s Retail Sales, and January’s Business Inventories.

The final trading day of Q1 finds at present the Bond, Gold, Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again moderate. The Bond yesterday moved above what had been volume-dominant Market Profile resistance (112^22), price now a full above above that at 113^22; similarly, Copper moved above same (5.470) to now 5.509; both markets however — as remains the case for every BEGOS component except Oil — are in negative linreg (see Market Trends). Gold (presently 4591) is just beneath its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor of 4598; too Gold is still considerably below its BEGOS Market Value of 5243, that measure itself having begun to roll over to the downside. The Econ Baro awaits March’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence.

Into the new week we’ve at present the Bond, Gold and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update depicts price as being (by percentage) about equidistant (i.e. “♫ Stuck in the Middle with Gold ♫” between its BEGOS Market Value (some +14% higher than price) and its Fair Value (some -14% lower than price). As to our Market Values for all five primary BEGOS Components (in real-time): we’ve the Bond as -6^30 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.050 points “low”, Gold as -729 points “low”, Oil as +26.58 points “high”, and the Spoo as -620 points “low”. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 14 incoming scheduled as the week unfolds.

The Bond currently is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are all three element of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again light. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from April into that for June with +33 points of fresh premium; more on Gold, ‘natch, in tomorrow’s 854th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday moved below its most volume-dominant price (6639) for the past fortnight (see Market Profiles); as fundamentally expensive as is the S&P 500 (“live” futs-adj’d P/E 43.2x), the Index is “textbook oversold” through the last 15 trading days and the Spoo itself is (in real-time) -514 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro wraps its quiet week with the March revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey.

The Bond, Gold and Silver all are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The Swiss Franc by its Market Profile yesterday moved below what had been volume-dominant support at 1.280: price is now 1.273; by Market Trends, as is the case for every BEGOS component except for Oil, the Swiss Franc and Euro are in negative linreg, but both are becoming less consistently down as the Dollar Index keeps falling back from the 100 level (currently 99.515). The S&P 500 is basically down -6% from its all-time high (7002): however by our MoneyFlow page, the Index (6592) “ought be” -95 points lower by the five-day measure, -196 points lower by the 21-day measure, and -737 points lower by the 63-day measure; the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is 44.3x. Today for the Econ Baro we’ve just the usual Initial Jobless Claims from the prior week.

Both the Swiss Franc and Copper presently are below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Going ’round the horn of Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we show (in real-time) the Bond as -7^15 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.053 points “low”, Gold as -721 points “low”, Oil as +17.43 points “high” and the Spoo as -451 points “low”. Oil yesterday by Market Trends saw the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency drop below the key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices near-term: obviously the wildcard in this case is the war; thus a Short is fine, but with a firm stop in line(!); by Oil’s Market Profile, the most volume-dominant price resistor is 94.20, (vs. current price at 88.61). Today’s Econ Baro looks to February’s Ex/Im Prices and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

No, Gold’s intra-day drop yesterday of -9.6% was not a record; and even as Gold recovered to finish the session just -1.8%, the low trade of the day at precisely 4100 was “only” +210 points above Fair Value of 3890 … just in case you’re scoring at home. At present, Gold is in its Neutral Zone for today, as are six of the other BEGOS Markets, Copper being the sole exception below same; session volatility vis-à-vis yesterday has cooled to moderate. Topping our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow and 30mn Price Oscillator, plus the Bond’s 30mn Moneyflow; on a 24-test basis, the leaders are Silver’s 2hr Parabolics, the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr MACD, and Gold’s 4hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro awaits the usual revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor costs.

Gold is -7% this morning having traded down into the 4100s: The Gold Update specifies the yellow metal having taken a double-shot of technical adversity (parabolics and MACD on the weeklies), including a table of how typically “low is low” suggestive of the 4100s; it didn’t take long; Gold is now not that far above Fair Value (3890), albeit is more than -1,000 points below its BEGOS Market Value (5275). Obviously, at present Gold is also below today’s Neutral Zone as too are Silver, Copper, the Spoo, the Bond and the Euro; Oil is above same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust. With the Spoo -1.4%, the S&P 500 would at this instant open down -0.9%. The Econ Baro begins its somewhat subdued week with January’s Construction Spending.

Into week’s end, we’ve at present the Euro below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Gold; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold yesterday traded down to 4505, its lowest price since 02 February; for pure swing consistency, Gold (on a 10-test basis) by Market Rhythms has been featuring the 15-minute time frame on both the Parabolics and MACD studies; more on the yellow metal’s newly negative near-term stance in tomorrow’s 853rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 from its 7002 record high (28 January) through yesterday’s low (6558) has retraced -6.3%; a full -10% correction would be completed come 6302. The Econ Baro wrapped up its week yesterday. And today marks the arrival of Northern Hemisphere spring (14:46 GMT).

Gold, Silver and Oil are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of th BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the session is moderate. As posted last evening on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short; price’s low trade thus far today (4749) last traded on 06 February. At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil, the seven other BEGOS components all are in negative linreg. By Market Profiles, both the Euro and Spoo yesterday moved below their most volume-dominant support levels (1.157 and 6754 respectively). The Econ Baro wraps its week this Thursday with incoming metrics that include March’s Philly Fed Index, plus January’s New Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories, and (purportedly) Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are the Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 completed an eighth consecutive day as “textbook oversold” and would see a bounce (were it to open at this instant) of +0.6%; clearly however, the Index broadly remains overvalued, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this moment 45.8x. Still, by Market Values, the Spoo is -336 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold’s 21-day linreg in real-time has provisionally rotated to negative, (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro awaits wholesale inflation for February via the PPI, and purportedly (again) January’s Factory Orders; then at 18:00 GMT comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for we expect no change in rates, albeit with a cautionary note toward stubborn inflation.

Copper is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. For the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time) by their Market Values: the Bond shows as -6^11 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro as 0.070 points “low”, Gold as -195 points “low”, Oil as +29.95 points “high”, and the Spoo as -410 points low: obviously all these extremes have largely been elicited by responses to the war and firming Dollar. Specific to the Spoo, it (on Friday) confirmed a negative daily EMA has crossover: thus commencing from yesterday’s open (6660), we may near-term see 6609 trade on the downside as the last 10 such crossovers — either Long or Short — have distanced at least 50 points of follow-through travel; (see the Market Rhythm chart at the foot of BEGOS Markets > S&P 500). February’s Pending Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.

Both Copper and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility continues to this hour as moderate. The Gold Update underscores price having fallen through the first two war weeks, and is again lower a bit this morning: the yellow metal has completed a -10% correction from its All-Time High (5586 on 29 January). As noted, Copper is higher today, albeit has not regained the volume-dominant 5.8050 level down through which it fell on Friday (see Market Profiles). April Oil has returned above the 100 handle for the first time since last Monday, however cac volume is now rolling into that for May at a price discount of -1.90; too, cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from March into that for June with +49 points of premium. For the Econ Baro we’ve March’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices, plus February’s IndProd/CapUtil.

As was the case at this time yesterday, we’ve both the Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, as too are Silver, Copper and the Spoo; the Bond, Gold and Oil are within same, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Gold in its weakening uptrend (see the falling “Baby Blues” at Market Trends) has moved below its smooth valuation line, now in real-time by -95 points (see Market Values); more of course in tomorrow’s 852nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 has closed lower for eight of the past 11 trading days; technically it remains “textbook oversold”, albeit is still well-overvalued by the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of presently 44.8x; from the Index’s all-time high of 7002 (28 January), it has corrected by as much as -5.2% (to 6636 on 09 March). Contract volume for the Euro and Swiss Franc is rolling from March into that for June. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with incoming metrics of March’s UofM Sentiment Survey, January’s Durable Orders, Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” PCE data, along with the first revision to Q4’s GDP.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are all presently beneath their respective neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, four BEGOS components are in negative linreg (the Bond, Euro, Swiss and Spoo), the other four positively-sloped (Gold, Silver Copper and Oil); however, given the volatile lurches of late, the “Baby Blues” in some cases are less consistent than the norm. Gold has slipped back below volume-dominant support of 5195 (see Market Profiles), as have both the Euro and Swiss Franc, the Dollar getting a mild bid today. Our top Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is the non-BEGOS Yen’s 6hr Moneyflow, and on a 24-test basis again the Yen’s 2hr MACD. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include January’s Housing Starts/Permits and Trade Deficit.

The Euro is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Gold is teasing either side of its Market Profile’s most volume-dominant price of 5195, (current price 5202); should such support fail, we’d look near-term down to 5105; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 153 points; for pure swing consistency, Gold’s best Market Rhythm has been the 4hr Parabolics (10-test basis) and 6hr Moneyflow (24-test basis). The S&P 500 has on balance worked down such as to become mildly “textbook oversold”; the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) -313 points below its smooth valuation line. And for the Econ Baro we await the first indications of February inflation via the CPI, even as the PCE for January shan’t be released (purportedly) until Friday; too for February we get the Treasury Budget late in the session.

Following yesterday’s whirl ’round recovery across the BEGOS Markets — Oil notably giving back all of its extraordinary gain on the day — we’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver above their Neutral Zones, whilst the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same; session volatility is mostly moderate. Save for Oil, at Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for the seven other BEGOS components. The Bond, after trading as anticipated down into the 115s, recovered enough to clear its most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor at 116^12, price now 116^17; for the past two trading days, the Bond’s 15mn Moneyflow has been our best Market Rhythm for that component by pure swing consistency. The Econ Baro gets its busy week underway today with February’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for Oil (+10.1%) which is above its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets all are below same; session volatility is robust, Oil having traced 473% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update underscores last week’s price decline as was anticipated; the yellow metal today (-1.4%) is just about in sync (+28 points) with its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price reverting to that “mean”; for the other primary BEGOS Components: the Bond is -2^27 points below valuation, indeed trading in the 115s as we suggested ‘twould; the Euro shows as -0.056 points below same, the Spoo is below by -442 points, but Oil is far above valuation by +37 points. Despite the Spoo’s large deviation below its valuation line, the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P remains critically high at 44.4x. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 16 scheduled metrics as the week unfolds.

Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three (on a 10-test basis) are Gold’s 30mn MACD, the Euro’s 8hr Parabolics and same for the non-BEGOS Yen; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s 2hr MACD and 1hr Parabolics, plus Gold’s 4hr Parabolics. Specific to the Spoo, its most consistent Rhythm has been (10-tests) the 15mn Price Oscillator and (24-tests) daily Moneyflow. Tomorrow brings our 851st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, in which we’ll emphasize (as was rather anticipated) price now being lower than ’twas pre-war. Finally for the Econ Baro, we’ve sources that conflict (the government “shutdown” hangover still affecting the data flow) as to what actually gets reported today: to be sure, metrics shall include Payrolls data for February along with Retail Sales and Consumer Credit for January; too, there may one or more reports as to various Inventories measures and Factory Orders.

The Bond, EuroCurrencies and Copper are presently all below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower prices: currently 116^15, an excursion from here down into the 115s wouldn’t be untoward; the yield on the underlying 30yr Bond itself (4.716%) has been increasing this week such that its MACD is poised to make a positive crossing; overhead Bond resistance is 117^00 (see Market Profiles). Meanwhile, the yield on the S&P 500 is 1.155% and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 45.9x. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro we’ve January’s Ex/Im Prices (and purportedly that month’s still “shutdown” delayed Factory Orders), plus Q4’s initial Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Both the Bond and Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are (save for the Euro) all the other BEGOS Markets, and volatility is moderate. Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, Gold settled Friday at 5296; price Monday then peaked at 5434 before settling yesterday at 5100, thus recording yet another geo-political “spike n’ plunge” for the yellow metal. By Market Magnets, the following BEGOS components crossed below that leading measure yesterday: the Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; too, the Bond crossed beneath its BEGOS Market Value. Today (in real-time) by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency are falling for every BEGOS Market except Oil, which yesterday reached as high as 77.98 after settling pre-conflict on Friday at 67.83; notable volume-dominant Market Profile supports for Oil are 72.00 and 66.50. For the Econ Baro we await February’s ADP Employment data and the month’s ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and the Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst Oil is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (having settled last Friday at 5296), traded as a geo-political spike yesterday up to 5434 (+138 points over Friday); now at 5327 ’tis but +31 points over Friday: as we’ve oft written, when Gold gets a geo-political spike, price then tends to return from whence it came, and indeed today’s low thus far of 5292 is -4 points below Friday. By Gold’s Market Profile, 5191 remains price’s most volume-dominant supporter. As for Oil, now at 73.33 ’tis 10.01 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values). The Dollar Index thus far this session has traded up to its highest level since 22 January at 98.765. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 15 metrics scheduled for the balance of the week.

Saturday’s Gold Update cites the 5400s as already trading on the weekend; the COMEX high for the Monday session thus far is 5434. At present, Gold, Silver and Oil are above today’s Neutral Zones and respectively are +2.5%, +1.7%, and +8.2%; below same are the Bond, EuroCurrencies and the Spoo, itself -1.2%; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly robust. We are keen to see if Gold near-term reverts back from whence it has come as typically is its wont following geo-political price spikes: currently 5423, Gold settled Friday at 5296, its BEGOS Market Value (in real-time) 4984 and Fair Value 3884. On verra. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded: for the 457 S&P 500 constituents having therein reported, 71% improved their bottom lines over Q4 a year ago, bettering the average improvement pace of 66%; but as we regularly caution, the S&P’s overall level of earnings is considerably low relative to price, (the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this moment 45.1x). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ISM(Mfg) Index.

We’ve presently both Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility again is light. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs for all eight BEGOS components are in decline, very notably for Gold and Silver; by Market Trends, the 21-day linreg for Gold is mildly positive whilst that for Silver is mildly negative; more of course in tomorrow’s 850th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo by its Market Profile is sitting above a swath of trading support spanning from 6903 down to 6854: to the extent that holds through the session can be affected by January’s PPI; other Econ Baro metrics also due today are February’s Chi PMI, and well in “shutdown” arrears November’s Construction Spending in tandem with that for December. And we put a wrap of Q4 Earnings Season today, which as we’ve regularly been noting has been running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement, but not enough so by valuation to maintain the S&P 500’s lofty P/E of 46.6x (the “live” reading as futs-adj’d).

All eight BEGOS Markets are at present inside their respective Neutral Zones for today, session volatility being light. By Market Ranges’ EDTRs, all eight are narrower than they were both a day ago and a week earlier. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation currently is negative between the Bond and the Spoo; indeed by Market Trends, the Bond’s positive linreg is of the highest consistency (+87% in real-time) of all the components; the balance of the bunch find their “Baby Blues” (of trend consistency) lacking conviction regardless of current linreg direction. Our most steadfast Market Rhythm on a 10-test basis has been Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the Swiss Franc’s 4hr Moneyflow. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.6x and the yield a scant 1.140% (vs. that annualized for the 3mo T-Bill of 3.588%). The sole metric due today for the Econ Baro is the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims, ahead of wholesale inflation for January (PPI) to be reported tomorrow. And two days remain in Q4 Earnings Season.

Presently, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Silver’s cac volume is rolling from March into May, as did that yesterday for Copper; too, the Bond’s cac volume is rolling from March to June. The Gold Update noted that a robust up move would right the yellow metal’s linreg (see Market Trends) from having briefly been negative back to positive, which indeed is the case, albeit into week’s end we may see rotation back to negative should price not further climb from the 5200s area: this is because price was significantly higher 21 days ago, the All-Time High still maintained at 5586. Silver today has regained the 90 handle for the first time since 04 February, the Gold/Silver ratio reaching back down into the 50s: ’twas 60.7x at last week’s settle, and is now in real-time 57.7x. Originally scheduled today for the Econ Baro was January’s New Home Sales; however the Census Bureau along with “HUD” continue to run behind, given last autumn’s “shutdown”.

Per last night’s note, we experienced a data outage such that metrics from Friday were carried forward for Monday; thus pages such as Market Trends are redundant of Friday’s data for Monday; however, this shall all be corrected/resolved today and put right for tonight’s data runs. As for the present, Gold is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Copper is above same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again mostly moderate. The Spoo thus far today is in a volume-dominant band from 6854-6874 (see Market Profiles, the data for which was not affected by the outage); Gold too is centered it a profile band spanning from 5218 down to 5170. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Consumer Confidence, and what would appear to be a re-reporting of December’s Factory Orders from last Thursday.

Our Monday Night (23 February) runs were interrupted by a data outage such that some of the website analytics — notable those for Market Trends — are redundant to Friday’s data rather than those through Monday. Reparations shall be made during Tuesday such that we fully expect all being accurately restored-to-date by Tuesday night’s runs. …m…

We start the week finding at present both the Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. The Gold Update depicts the yellow metal’s 21-day linreg trend as having rotated to negative, albeit just barely so, even as price this session has made a higher-high for a third consecutive day. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is just slightly “low” (-0^13 points) vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.023 points “low”, Gold +256 points “high”, Oil +3.70 points “high”, and the Spoo -223 points “low”, although by earnings generation, the S&P 500 remains extremely overvalued. ‘Tis the final week of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro awaits “shutdown-delayed” Factory Orders for December.

Across the eight BEGOS Markets, just one is presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today: the Euro, as the Dollar’s firm February continues. Overall session volatility is again to this hour very light. Notably by Market Ranges, EDTRs are narrowing for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper. The yellow metal has spent the past three weeks flirting either side of the 5000 level, regardless remaining overvalued throughout both by its BEGOS valuation and Fair Value; too as anticipated, Gold’s 21-day linreg trend yesterday settled having rotated to negative; more of coure in tomorrow’s 849th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro concludes its week with the revision to February’s UofM Sentiment Survey, the first peek at Q4 GDP, and Personal Income/Spending including the much FinMedia anticipated “Fed-Favoured” PCE data for December, which we sense is a bit of a non-event given we’ve already had January’s CPI.

We’ve at present the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is very light. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are now in decline for every BEGOS component, save for the Bond, the Dollar on balance improving during February; and specific to Gold, its falling Blues are (in real-time) crossing beneath the 0% axis as the trend rotates toward negative, perhaps to be confirmed into the weekend. Oil has shown strength of late, moving yesterday above what had been Market Profile resistance of 64.00, as well as back above its Market Magnet. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s Philly Fed Index, January’s Pending Home Sales, and for December the Trade Deficit, purportedly along with (in “shutdown” arrears) Wholesale Inventories and Leading (quite lagging) Indicators.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) has all but rotated to negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency poised to move below the 0% axis; too by Market Magnets, Gold confirmed moving below said metric such that we ought see still lower prices near-term, even as the precious metals are getting a bid today. The MoneyFlow for the S&P 500 remains very net-negative vis-à-vis the Index itself: by our MoneyFlow page, the S&P per this leading indicator “ought be” on be (on a one-week basis) -130 points lower than ’tis, and (on a one-month basis) -535 points lower, plus (on a one-quarter basis) -641 points lower; the S&P’s futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 45.9x. For the Econ Baro we’ve January’s IndProd/CapUtil, plus December’s Housing Starts/Permits and Durable Orders. Then late in the session come the 27-28 January FOMC Minutes.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues with volatility naturally having widened from light at this time yesterday to now moderate. Above the session’s Neutral Zones are the Bond and Oil, whilst below same are the two EuroCurrencies, the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, and the Spoo. Gold high-to-low through the combined session has declined by as much as -199 points; by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +131 points above its smooth valuation line after having been +418 points a week ago; too by its Market Profile, Gold has slipped below its most volume-dominant support level of 4948; ’tis the like case for Silver having eclipsed down through 76.35. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from March into that for April. The week’s parade of 18 scheduled Econ Baro metrics begins today with February’s NY State Empire and NAHB Housing Indices.

Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement tomorrow (Tuesday). Presently, we’ve but one BEGOS component outside (below) its Neutral Zone for the session, that being Gold -0.9% (5017); overall volatility thus far expectedly is quite light. The Gold Update cites (as we’d anticipated a week prior) a compressing of the yellow metal’s trading range; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) for today is 248 points, but doubtless the actual range shan’t be that vast, (barring something geo-politically untoward); too, given the ongoing drop by Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends), the 21-day regression trend may confirm having rotated to negative by week’s end. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with a heavy balance of 18 metrics scheduled through the week. And with two weeks to run in Q4 Earnings Season, we still expect reports from some 100 S&P 500 constituents: thus far, 71% have bettered their like Q4 of a year ago, which continues to be an above-average pace; however, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at present 46.2x is a significant downside warning sign.

Presently we’ve the EuroCurrencies below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the precious metals; BEGOS Markets’ volatility remains light into this hour of the session. Gold, after having on Wednesday moved up through its Market Magnet, was unable to sustain upside furtherance, falling back down through same yesterday, as did both Oil and the Spoo; and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate yesterday failed to hold their most volume-dominant support levels (see Market Profiles). Also, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) — whilst still vast — have begun to narrow a bit; more on the metals in tomorrow’s 848th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And although we’re still a week away from the “Fed-favoured” PCE for December, today the Econ Baro receives the CPI for January. As for Q4 Earnings Season, with two weeks yet to run, some 100 S&P 500 constituents are still to report. Monday is a StateSide holiday for physical bourses.