Our Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light, (save for the Yen, which whilst not yet a formal BEGOS component, has traced 102% of its EDTR by our Market Ranges calculation). Yesterday’s selling in the S&P did not exhibit “fear” such as to drive the MoneyFlow differential lower; still by historical standards, the “live” p/e of the S&P remains excessively high, the futs-adj’d read now 37.3x. We continue to mind Oil (currently 90.19) and notably its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) which in real-time are at +89%: below +80% would make us anticipative of further near-term selling.
Post-Fed we’ve Oil as the sole BEGOS Market at present below today’s Neutral Zone; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The FOMC’s Policy Statement was fairly as expected: a key Fed metric for which to watch is the 29 September release of August’s Core PCE Index. Oil’s “Baby Blues” have (in real-time) kinked lower for the first time since 29 August: once below their +80% axis we can make a guesstimate as to near-term downside price distance; even by Market Values, Oil still is better than +6 points above tis smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with metrics including September’s Philly Fed Index, August’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators and Existing Home Sales, plus Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
Oil is trading below 90 (89.65) for the first time this week: it is the only BEGOS Market at present outside of today’s Neutral Zone; by Oil’s Market Profile, trading supports show at 88.40, then 86.90-86.40; and by Market Rhythms, Oil’s 6hr and 1hr Parabolics have of late provided attractive swung consistency on a 10-test basis. The compression in the EuroCurrencies is such (see both Market Profiles and Market Ranges) that we anticipate range breaking open in the wake of today’s FOMC Policy Statement: the consensus is for the Fed to stand pat; ramped up inflation (both retail and wholesale) can support a FedFunds increase, however housing data has sufficiently weakened per this week’s reports, (NAHB, HousingStarts/Permits).
Gold and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. As highlighted in the current edition of the Gold Update, the yellow metal has confirmed its 12hr MACD crossing from Short to Long such that we’re seeking the mid-1970s near-term (current price is 1952). Looking at the best of our Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, topping the stack for consistency are Silver’s 6hr Parabolics, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow, and Gold’s 2hr MoneyFlow. Oil’s deviation from its smooth valuation line (See Market Values) is +10.64 points ((in real-time with price at 91.16); ’tis the most extreme deviation in at least a year. The final data due for the Econ Baro ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Policy Statement is today’s reports for Housing Starts/Permits in August.
The Swiss Franc, Metals Triumvirate and Oil are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same to start the week, and volatility is light. The Gold Update acknowledges the rather precarious start to the precious metals’ parabolic Long trends which (still intact) commenced two weeks ago; however, both Gold and Silver have been getting a bit of a bid since Friday; see too Gold’s MACD on its 12hr candles — our best Market Rhythm for the yellow metal at present — per our Gold page itself. With Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement in mind (a rate raise wouldn’t surprise us), the Econ Baro faces a moderate pace of incoming metrics this week, including September’s NAHB Housing Index due today.
Contrary to this time yesterday, the precious metals are getting a deserved boost with both Gold and Silver at present above today’s Neutral Zones, as are both Copper and the Euro; the latter along with the Swiss Franc see their cac volumes rolling today from September into December. Session volatility is again moderate-to-robust, notably for the metals. At Market Values, Oil finds itself (in real-time) +9.49 points above the smooth valuation line; the Euro is -3 full points below same, even as the ECB moved to a record-high rate stance yesterday. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ-Baro with September’s NY State Empire Index and UofM Sentiment, plus August’s IndProd/CapUtil and Ex/Im Prices.
The precious metals continue to weaken, albeit their relatively fresh weekly parabolic trends remain Long: Silver at present is below today’s Neutral Zone; Copper is above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver having already traced 104% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Much is being made ado about the increase in August’s CPI, albeit the headline number (+0.6%) matched the consensus expectation, and moreover as we pointed out a month ago, July’s PPI (which tends to lead the CPI a month out) already had popped. August’s PPI is due today for the Econ Baro, along with other metrics including the month’s Retail Sales and July’s Business inventories. The FOMC’s next Policy Statement is Wednesday (20 September).
Both Gold and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the precious metals have been struggling these past two weeks, even as their respective weekly parabolic trends have both flipped from Short to Long, (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The balance of the BEGOS Markets are with their Neutral Zones, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. Oil remains up, now better than +8 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and settling last evening +3.55 points above its Market Magnet, both fairly high readings. The Econ Baro looks to August’s CPI and Treasury Budget.
At present, the Euro is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is mostly light. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last Thursday and reprised in the current edition of The Gold Update, Market Ranges (with the exception of the Spoo) have noticeably narrowed of late, such as to give thought for expansive moves in the near-term balance, (especially it being the September/October period): tis well worth minding the Market Ranges page, certainly so when considering prudent cash management. At Market Rhythms, our most consistent on a 10-test swing basis is again the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study; on a 24-test swing basis, the best of the bunch is the Bond’s 2hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro remains quiet with both retail and wholesale inflation data due in the ensuing two days.
The BEGOS Markets begin the week with a “boom”: at present, six of the eight components are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the two exceptions are Oil (within same) and the Bond (below same); volatility even early on is moderate-to-robust. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from September into December with 49 points of additional premium given the higher interest rate environment; “fair value” in toto is thus 53 points for today. The Gold Update emphasizes the precious metals needing to get swiftly off the mat following last week’s declines, even as the weekly parabolic trends for both Gold and Silver remain newly Long. The “live” P/E (40.1x) for the S&P 500 has reverted to its lifetime mean (since 2013; see too the closing graphic in The Gold Update). Whilst a busy week of 15 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, none come due until Wednesday.
A slightly weaker Dollar is giving the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals a bid this morning, with the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present above their respective Neutral Zones; Copper is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, BEGOS Markets’ EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have really compressed of late (save for that of the Spoo) such that more substantive moves may be in the offing, (and of course ’tis September). Gold is flirting with Market Profile Support at 1942 (current price 1949). The Econ Baro concludes its week with July’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit.
At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are again within today’s respective Neutral Zones, and volatility is, in turn, light. Our “live” P/E of the S&P 500 (in fut’s-adj’d real-time) is below 40x (now 39.7x) for the first time since May; ‘course historically, this remains an extremely high level, as we’ve regularly said especially given risk-free three-month U.S. dough yielding 5.3% annualized. Whilst no material “fear” has yet to hit the S&P, there was a tinge of it yesterday as the MoneyFlow suggested an S&P drop of -1.0% vs. that of -0.7% for the Index itself; by Market Profiles, the Spoo’s most dominant overhead resistor is 4518, (price at present is 4458). Meanwhile for whirl-around Oil, price (87.26) is better than +7 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Included today for the Econ Baro are the revisions to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
Quiet is the state of the BEGOS Markets at present: all eight components are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is light. Gold’s drive to an All-Time High has begun with a dive, both the yellow and silver metals well off last week’s settles; by Market Profiles, for Gold (currently 1951) we’ve resistance at 1964 and 1972, with support at 1945 and 1932; for Silver (currently 23.83), Profile resistance shows at 24.60 and 25.00, (with no notable support this low is the Profile); of course, both metals have just commenced weekly parabolic Long trends such that we do not anticipate much downside relative to pending upside. Today’s Econ Baro awaits August’s ISM(Svc) Index and July’s Trade Deficit. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
The second of the two-day session finds all eight BEGOS Markets in the red, and all (save for the Euro) at present below their respective Neutral Zones. Combining the two days, session volatility is moderate-to-robust, with both Silver and Copper having traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis our most consistent studies are Gold’s 2hr MoneyFlow, the Euro’s ongoing daily MoneyFlow, and Silver’s 8hr Parabolics; on a 24-test swing basis, our leader is the Bond’s 2hr Price Oscillator. For the primary BEGOS components, the best correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold. The Econ Baro looks to July’s Factory Orders.
We start the week with a safe-haven BEGOS Markets’ bid: at present both the Swiss Franc and Gold are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; Oil is below same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to an All-Time High route given the fresh new weekly parabolic trend and the typical percentage gains that historically ensue. At Market Values, we’ve Oil nearly +6 points above its smooth valuation line. And at Market Trends, both the Euro and Swiss Franc find their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency struggling to get off the floor, the Dollar Index during July moving from the 99s to now the 104s. The Econ Baro awaits 8 incoming metrics as the week unfolds. StateSide bourses are closed for Labor Day; thus the BEGOS Markets are in a two-day session for Tuesday settlement, with trading halts late Monday (today).
September starts with Copper the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper having thus far traced 69% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil — for which we’ve been seeking near-term the mid-to-low 70s — has whirled ’round upward, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) also having reversed course back higher, (albeit the 21-day LinReg trend itself still is negative): the Blues looked to lower price levels from 79.26 (16 August), however price since weakened to only 77.59: ’tis at present 83.79; the recent high from some three weeks ago is 84.89; dominant Market Profile support is now 80.00. The Econ Baro concludes its week with StateSide August Payrolls data and the ISM Index, plus July’s Construction Spending.
We close out August with the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge: Core PCE for July; expectations are for +0.2% for the month, (however a +0.3% reading as reasoned in the current edition of the Gold Update wouldn’t overly surprise us … but ‘twould the markets). Specific to the Spoo, it settled yesterday a full +100 points above its Market Magnet, an extreme deviation by that metric; thus we still do not see fear in the S&P’s MoneyFlow; currently our best Spoo Market Rhythm for swing consistency is the 2hr parabolic study. Otherwise early on this morning, we’ve the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper as the BEGOS Markets at present outside (all below) today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility remains light by this hour. For the Econ Baro, other measures today also include July’s Personal Income/Spending.
The Bond, Silver and Copper are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is again light. Late in yesterday’s session, the cac volume for the Bond rolled from September into December, as is the like case today for Silver. The S&P 500 yesterday unwound a technically “textbook oversold” condition that had been in place through the prior 10 sessions; of course fundamentally with the “live” P/E at 43.2x, the Index remains in an extremely overbought state, especially given the higher risk-free interest rate environment. The Econ Baro looks to August’s ADP Employment data, July’s Pending Home Sales, and the first revision to Q2’s GDP.
At present ’tis but the Bond which is outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; overall BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. We’ve recently anticipated Oil to drop from ’round the low 80s (currently 79.85) to the 75-72 area given the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) commencing what now has become better than an ongoing two-week decline: by Market Values, price is fairly in synch with its smooth valuation line as well as with its Market Magnet; by its Market Profile, Oil settled yesterday at 80, its most dominantly-traded level of the past fortnight. The Econ Baro gets its busy week going today with August’s Consumer Confidence.
A fairly quiet start to the week for the BEGOS Markets; at present, only the Euro is outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light, save for Copper which already has traced 70% of its EDTR by Market Ranges, (albeit price is back in its Neutral Zone after having traded higher); too, Copper’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for December. The Gold Update exemplifies Silver’s firm performance across the last week or so: both Gold and Silver are within a week’s expected trading range of flipping their respective weekly parabolic trends from Short to Long, should the near-term precious metals’ rally continue. Although no EconData is due for today, the Baro looks to 16 incoming metrics as the week unfolds, including this Thursday’s (31 August) Fed-Favoured Core PCE Index for July.
We’ve the Euro at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Across the past eight trading days, Silver’s low-to-high run is +9.7%. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study continues to top the stack, followed by the Yen’s (not officially a BEGOS component) 15mn Parabolics. Looking at Market Values, the Bond is some -4 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro some -0.02 points “low”, and the Spoo -144 points low. The Spoo (4382) by its Market Profile shows its most dominant resistors at 4385 and 4420. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with UofM’s Revised Sentiment Survey for August. FedChair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole.
‘Tis the metals in play thus far today, Gold at present above its Neutral Zone, whilst Silver and Copper are below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are quiet, and volatility is light. Silver has risen better than +6% net these past three days; more on Silver in this Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update. Oil finally has weakened such as to break its previous low (which was 78.95), reaching down yesterday to 77.62: this suggests a move sub-75 as the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) too continue their descent; further, Oil’s 21-day LinReg trend has now rotated to negative. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are July’s Durable Orders.
The Bond, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver which has already traced 60% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Rhythms, heading the list of the 24-test swing basis (for 405 studies) is the long-time visibly-observed Spoo’s 15mn MACD, likely the most popular trading study going back better than 20 years from our days at AvidTrader. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” continue to descend; however, price has yet to break lower to our anticipated mid-to-low 70s range (currently 79.46). The Econ Baro awaits July’s New Home Sales.
The Euro is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As was previewed in The Gold Update, Silver yesterday took off, its +2.5% single-day gain ranking as 10th best year-to-date; and now in real-time, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have provisionally crossed above their -80% axis, confirmation of which at day’s end would suggest still higher price levels near-term; Silver’s favoured Market Rhythm at present is its 8hr Parabolics, (which triggered Long on 16 August from 22.660, price now 23.370). For the S&P 500, “fear” still has yet to appear as the MoneyFlow’s differential to the Index itself is gaining ground; nonetheless, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is a terribly expensive 45.8x. For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s Existing Home Sales.
The Bond starts its week at present below the Neutral Zone, whilst above same is that for Oil; volatility remains light-to moderate per this time of the session. The Gold Update looks to Gold’s low for the current weekly parabolic Short trend as either being in place or quite nearby in the 1901-1893 area (price currently is 1918); too, the Update looks to this week’s BRICS rendezvous as a “non-event” in terms of any material outcome. In looking at Market Rhythms with the most consistent returns of late (10-test swing basis), we still note the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow plus its 30mn MACD, the Yen’s 8hr Parabolics plus its 15mn MACD, and Oil’s 30mn Parabolics. ‘Tis a muted week for the Econ Baro, with nothing due today.
The Bond is at present above today’s Neutral Zone; the Swiss Franc is below same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets. Per our S&P MoneyFlow page, fear has yet to be exhibited during this recent selloff, (which is why the MoneyFlow line is rising relative to the Index itself); in fact near-term, the S&P 500 is now a bit “textbook oversold” and the Spoo (in real-time) is -184 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). By the same measure for the other primary BEGOS Components, the Bond shows as -6.5 points “low”, the Euro as -0.27 points “low”, Gold as -44 points “low”, and Oil as +3.8 points “high”. Today is the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.
The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; both Silver and Copper are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) as dropping below their +80% axis; as tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) yesterday, typical downside price follow-through would suggest we see the 74s, 73s, 72s near-term; (note that cac volume is beginning to roll from September into that for October; both cacs are currently in the 79s). For the S&P 500, the recent selling has been light vis-à-vis MoneyFlow, even as earnings have hardly been impressive. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index and July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
Outside at present of their Neutral Zones for today are both the Bond (above) and Oil (below); the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally dropped below their key +80% axis, which if confirmed by day’s end portends still lower price levels near-term; even as Oil declined yesterday, price remains (in real-time) +4.60 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values). The Spoo yesterday reached our initial downside target of 4455. The Econ Baro today looks to July’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil. Late in the session we’ve the FOMC’s Minutes from their 25-26 July meeting.
Following a below-average volume day for the BEGOS Markets, quiet thus far today is again the watchword, (albeit a lot of EconData waits in the wings); at present, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst the Euro is above same; session volatility is light. We continue to mind Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Ranges): in real-time they’ve kinked lower, although are still above the key +80% axis; at Market Values, Oil is +6.96 points above its smooth valuation line; presently priced at 82.73, Oil’s most dominant Market Profile resistor is just above here at 82.80; (the recent high is 84.89). For the Econ Baro we’ve August’s NY State and NAHB Housing Indices, July’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and June’s Business Inventories.
Copper and Oil commence the week at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update emphasizes that ’tis not just the yellow metal that’s been in decline, but — save for Oil — all the BEGOS components have been falling as the Dollar firms, notably so their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). Specific to Oil, again mind its “Baby Blues” to crack below their +80% axis as this week unfolds, (which in turn would suggest lower levels for price). This is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season; and whilst the Econ Baro is quiet today, it awaits 14 incoming metrics tomorrow through Thursday.
Early on we’ve all eight BEGOS Markets at present within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is very light. By Market Trends, every component (save for Oil) is now in a decided downtrend, evidence of the Dollar’s strength during the past few weeks. Specific to the Spoo as regards our anticipated run down to at least 4455, yesterday’s low came relatively near at 4474, (considering having come down from our first such musings at 4634 some two weeks ago); Market Profile support shows at 4487, with the first notable resistor at 4514. The Econ Baro wraps its week with the UofM Sentiment Survey for August, plus July’s wholesale inflation read via the PPI.
The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its respective Neutral Zone for today; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s 21-day LinReg trend has just rotated to negative (as tweeted earlier this morning @deMeadvillePro); we still seek 4454 to trade near-term, (price currently 4508). Session volatility is quite light ahead of retail inflation data. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study remains our most consistent, whilst on a 24-test swing basis ’tis Oil’s 30mn. MoneyFlow. As noted, metrics due today for the Econ Baro include July’s CPI and the months Treasury Budget.
Both Copper and the Spoo are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light, (Copper the sole components having traced in excess of 50% of its EDTR by Market Ranges). At Market Trends, save for Oil, the seven other markets all find their “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency in decline, even as the Spoo itself seeks a relief rally off of yesterday’s low (4482, now 4530); by its Market Profile, the Spoo shows trading resistance initially at 4537. Meanwhile, the P/E of the S&P has notably come off from the mid-50s to the mid-40s (still “way too high”) in large part from AMZN (3.7% of the S&P 500) earnings improvement knocking its own P/E down from 300+ to just over 100. With much of Q2 Earnings Season in the books, 57% of the reporting S&P 500 constituents have improved their bottom lines over a year ago.
The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Whilst the S&P yesterday rose +0.9%, its MoneyFlow was actually negative, (see S&P: sub-menu MoneyFlow); specific to the Spoo (4525), we continue to seek the 4455 level (i.e. the mid-point of the initial 4498-4411 underlying support structure). At Market Values, we note two excessive readings: Oil is some +7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Bond is some -6 points below same. For June metrics, the Econ Baro awaits the Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories.
The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update — whilst depicting price nearing its “flip-to-Long” level by the weekly bars — is nonetheless duly cited as being in sync with the other primary BEGOS components, which save for Oil, are in near-term decline; too we review the S&P’s P/E as posied to revert to its mean, which from the current price level (4478) would be a “correction” of -27% toward the 3200s. The Econ appears starts its week late in the session with June’s Consumer Credit.
Silver is at present below today’s Neutral Zone; above same is the Spoo, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study tops our list for consistency, whilst on a 24-test swing basis Copper is ruling the roost with its 30mn MACD, 1hr Parabolics, and 15mn Price Oscillator; (see too our Market Rhythms pages for the best performers with given profit targets). We’re minding Oil for a move lower as the 82 level these last few days seems a sticking point: Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) can give us the cue. StateSide ’tis July Payrolls for the Econ Baro.
The Bond, Swiss Franc, Silver, Oil, Spoo are all at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond notably having already traded 112% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the latter by Market Values is more than -8 points below its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo finally has returned to same for the first time since 05 May. By Market Trends, the Spoo has confirmed its “Baby Blues” dropping below their key -80% level; thus still lower price levels are expected near-term; as noted we’re seeking the 4455 level. The S&P yesterday fully unwound its “textbook overbought” condition following that run of 41 consecutive trading days. In addition to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ISM(Svc) Index and June’s Factory Orders.
The Spoo gapped -18 points lower in concert with Fitch downgrading (as they’d been anticipating to do) the StateSide credit rating from AAA to AA+; (this occurred whilst the Spoo was in its usual one-hour closure from 21:00-22:00 GMT); the Spoo at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, as is Copper; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have preliminarily dropped below their +80% level, indicative of lower prices near-term: this last occurred on 27 June, however the downside follow-through was at best minimal, (the exception rather than the rule); we continue initially to look toward the mid-point of prior Spoo structural support ’round 4455, (current price 4575). For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data; (the first read of Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs is scheduled for tomorrow, 03 August).
Each component of the BEGOS Markets’ metals’ triumvirate is at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same, and volatility is mostly light. In real-time by Market Values, Oil is 8.92 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Bond is nearly -5 points below same. The S&P 500 confirmed its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; however by our MoneyFlow page, the upside thrust lacks puff. By the Spoo’s Market Profile, the most dominant supporters are 4605, followed by the 4588-4584 zone. The Econ Baro awaits July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.
Save for the Euro and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the Bond and Gold both at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes the +40-point price contango as cac volume rolls from August into December; currently priced at 1993, the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend would flip to Long should 2005 be eclipsed this week. The S&P 500 enters its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought” making it the 10th longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years, (the record is 59 days); the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 58.5x. Due for the econ Baro is July’s Chi PMI.
Both the Bond and the Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; overall BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate: of note on the heels of yesterday’s Yen acceleration, it today has already traced 306% of its “expected daily trading range” (EDTR). At long last, the S&P may finally be running out of puff, its “textbook overbought” condition entering a 39th consecutive trading day which ties it for the 10th-longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years; yesterday’s selling after the Index reached 4607 was sufficiently swift that perhaps “the light is going on” as to stocks’ extreme overvaluation. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” look to curl below their key +80% level come Monday, suggestive of materially lower price levels; and yesterday, the Spoo confirmed a negative crossing of its Market Magnet, which too points to lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to the Fed’s favoured Core PCE for June, along with the month’s Personal Income/Spending data, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index.
The Bond, Oil and the Spoo are at present all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility already is firmly moderate. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into December: the price premium for the latter is +40 points over spot. The S&P 500 looks to provisionally open a 38th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the futs-adj’d live P/E is 57.9x. By Market Values, the Spoo is +108 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst Oil is +7.47 points above its like measure. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2’s GDP.
Ahead of the Fed, both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are Copper and the Spoo; session volatility as expected is mostly light. 36 days now is the S&P 500 “textbook overbought” at what we deem an “extreme” level given BollBands, RSI and Stos all triggering as such. Our MoneyFlow page suggests weakening of the Flow vis-à-vis the Index itself, albeit since last Thursday’s massive monetary drain (see both our 21 July comment and the current edition of The Gold Update) there has yet to be any realized follow-though. June’s New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, followed late in the session by the FOMC’s Policy Statement incorporating a FedFunds raise of +0.25% to their 5.25%-5.50% target range.
Our two Euro Currencies plus the metals triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, the metals garnering the most amount of ranginess to this point. The S&P 500 yesterday recorded its 35th consecutive day as “textbook overbought”, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) now 57.7x. Looking to Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the most consistent studies are the Bond’s 30-min. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow, whilst on a 24-test swing basis the best of the bunch are Oil’s 15-min MACD and 15-min. Parabolics, plus the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) 15-min. MoneyFlow. By Market Values, we’ve Oil (in real-time) better than +7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo is +116 points above same. The Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.
Whilst none of the BEGOS Markets are at present outside of their respective Neutral Zones for today, the overall tilt is negative, save solely for the Euro which is +0.1%; volatility is notably light. The Gold Update anticipates price struggling a wee bit this week as the Fed looks on Wednesday to raise their FundsRate +0.25%. Again emphasized is the vast overvaluation of the S&P 500: indeed comparing year-over-year price to the cap-weighted P/E, the imputed level of earnings for the Index as a unit is significantly lower; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 57.5x. The Econ Baro again is quiet today ahead of 12 metrics due as the balance week unfolds.
Both Copper and Oil are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday lost but -0.7%, its MoneyFlow (a favoured leading indicator) was the most negative since 13 September 2022, (following which within 21 days, the Spoo fell as much as 383 points); and despite yesterday’s move lower, the S&P remains “textbook overbought” now through 33 consecutive trading days. Q2 Earnings Season through yesterday finds 64 S&P constituents having thus far reported with 55% having done better year-over-year: the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 56.8x. The Econ Baro takes a breather following its negative week.
Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are both the Bond and Spoo, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The S&P 500 is frightfully overcooked, its settle yesterday (4566) recording a 32nd straight day as “textbook overbought” (a combination of BollBands, Stos and RSI); indeed looking back through better than 40 years of daily data, such string is into rarefied air. Specific to the Spoo (4587) — when it finally lets go — structural support runs from 4498 down to 4411. Early on in Q2 Earnings Season, what had started robustly is starting to sag, thus far with only 58% of S&P constituents having improved their bottom lines over those of a year ago. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro (which wraps its week today), incoming metrics including July’s Philly Fed Index, plus June’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators.
Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 yesterday completed its 31st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, and the Spoo by Market Values (in real-time) is +180 points above its smooth valuation line.; the “live” P/E of the S&P is (futs-adj’d) 59.1x. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, our two best studies are Copper’s 4-hr. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow. More housing data arrives for the Econ Baro via June’s Housing Starts/Permits.
With the S&P 500 having just completed its 30th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, today finds at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their Neutral Zones; none are below same, and volatility is light. The five primary BEGOS are now all in positive correlation, typical of what we’ve seen historically when “money is flowing into everything” during Dollar weakness. Moreover by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” for all eight BEGOS components are rising. Q2 Earnings Season very early on appears off to a better start than in several years past. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro as due is July’s NAHB index, June’s Retail Sales plus IndProd/CapUtil, and May’s Business Inventories.
‘Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets. At present, the Swiss Franc is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; the latter’s cac volume is rolling from August into September. Session volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having already traced 80% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update has more conviction that the recent low (1901 futs) may stand as the parabolic Short trend can unwind within a couple of weeks; too, the overwhelmingly extreme valuation of the S&P 500 again is emphasized: its futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 58.1x and the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +156 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Bara awaits July’s NY State Empire Index.