Both the Bond and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets all are within same, and volatility is again light. The S&P 500 is -44 points below its 4819 all-time high; the EDTR (see Market Ranges) for the Spoo is coincidentally 44 points; (for the S&P itself ’tis 38 points); the S&P is entering its 35th consecutive “textbook overbought” trading session, and the Spoo (in real-time) is +256 points above its smooth valuation line; (extreme too is the Bond now better than +7 points above same). The “live” P/E of the S&P is 46.3x and the yield 1.468% vs. 5.203% for three-month U.S. dough. By Market Trends, both Silver and Oil remain the only two components in 21-day linreg downtrends, albeit the latter’s “Baby Blues” are swiftly rising. Again the Econ Baro remains quiet until tomorrow.
Into the shortened trading week we go with Gold at present above its Neutral Zone, as too are Silver, Copper and the Spoo; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update details an historically-based case for Gold to reach 2500 in the ensuing year. The S&P 500 looks to open higher toward entering its 34th consecutive trading day as “textbook oversold”; the “live” P/E adjusted to the futures is presently 45.7x. For tracking the Spoo, currently our best market rhythm for consistency (10-test basis) is the 8hr Moneyflow and (on a 24-test basis) the 15mn Parabolics. The Econ Baro has just three incoming metrics for this week, none due until Thursday.
Oil is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. By Market Trends, six of the eight components are in 21-day linreg uptrends components, (the two downtrends being for Silver and Oil). Per Market Rhythms, our most consistent on a 10-test is Gold’s 8hr MACD whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the Yen’s (not yet a BEGOS Market) 2hr MACD. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with November’s Personal Income/Spending, “Fed-favoured” Core PCE, Durable Orders, New Homes Sales, and revision to December’s UofM Sentiment Survery. Merry Christmas to everyone everywhere!
Apologies, we just noted that this morning’s post obviously didn’t “make the trip”. The thrust therein was the S&P 500 yesterday giving up the prior three days’ gains in just three hours. The Index is trying to firm today, but is coming off as we type. Still, save for the Bond and Oil, the balance of the other six BEGOS Markets are higher today. The Econ Baro took a dip today on weakness in Jobless claims, Q3 GDP revision, Philly Fed and Leading Indicataors.
Both the Bond and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Euro, and volatility is quite light, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) to this point being that of the Euro at 48%. Going ’round the Market Values horn of the five primary BEGOS Markets (in real-time): the Bond is better than +8 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro less than +0.01 points “high”, Gold +38 points “high”, Oil -3.24 points “low”, and the Spoo +298 points “high”, the Index itself having recorded its 30th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”. For the Econ Baro we’ve December’s Consumer Confidence, November’s Existing Home Sales and Q3’s Current Account Deficit. –> We sadly learned yesterday of the passing of Bob “MeBob” Falk, a fine and well-known trading colleague over many years as far back as the 1990s at Avid Trader. He shall be missed, and we extend our sincere condolences to his entire family.
At present we’ve the Bond, Euro and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility remains light, (save for non-BEGOS Yen which already has traced 121% of its EDTR [see Market Ranges for the BEGOS components]). At Market Ranges we continue to watch for the Bond’s “Baby Blues” to let go to the downside: however, they’ve remained pasted to the ceiling for better than a full month as price continues to rise. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 (fut’s-adj’d) is 45.8x and the Index’s “textbook oversold” condition now enters its 30th consecutive trading day. The Econ Baro looks to Novembers’ Housing Starts/Permits.
Both the Euro and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. The Gold Update emphasizes the dangerously high level of the S&P 500 by a whole host of measures; whereas Gold itself whilst weathering some post All-Time-High pullback nonetheless remains in a more broadly bullish stance. At Market Rhythms, the most consistent on a 10-test basis is Gold’s 8hr MACD, and a 24-test basis the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) 2hr MACD. The Econ Baro begins its busy week (17 incoming metrics!) with December’s NAHB Housing Index.
The Euro is at present below today’s Neutral Zone whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light. The S&P 500 looks to open at about 4730, some -90 points below the all-time high (4819); the “live” P/E (fut’s-adj’d) is now 45.0x. ‘Tis volume rollover today from December to March for the EuroCurrencies. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly 9 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; the Euro is about -0.01 points “low”; Gold is +47 points “high”; Oil is -7 points “low”, and the Spoo is (deep breath) +310 points “high”. The Econ Baro wraps its week with December’s NY State Empire Index along with November’s IndProd/CapUtil.
The Bond, Copper and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. Yesterday’s S&P 500 rally again did not have full MoneyFlow support (Index +1.4% vs. Flow +1.0%); too the S&P is now quite frothy as the Flow factor to move the S&P by 1 point is notably diminishing. Gold’s firm up push yesterday moved our top three Market Rhythms for consistency (10-test basis) as follows (all for Gold): the 12hr Parabolics, 6hr Price Oscillator and same study for 4hr. Oil’s cac volume is moving from January into that for February. The Econ Baro looks to November’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus October’s Business Inventories.
The Bond at present is above today’s Neutral Zone; both Copper and Oil are below same, and BEGOS Markets volatility is again light with the FOMC’s Policy Statement in the balance. The S&P 500 completed its 25th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 44.5x; at 4644, the Index stands -174 points (-3.8%) below its 4819 all-time high (04 January 2022); the Spoo (including the recent +55 points of fresh March premium) is nonetheless +260 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Ahead of the Fed comes November’s wholesale inflation per the PPI.
We’ve strength this morning in the Bond and EuroCurrencies, with session volatility notably light, save for the Swiss Franc having already traced 53% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Both the Swiss Franc and Gold confirmed their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) slipping below their +80% axes, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Despite yesterday’s +0.4% rise in the S&P 500, its MoneyFlow (regressed into S&P points) fell -0.8%, reflected in the developing negative slant we’re seeing at the MoneyFlow page; too, the Index is now “textbook overbought” through the past 24 trading days. The Econ Baro awaits November’s CPI and Treasury Budget.
Save for Oil (+0.6% at 71.67), the other seven BEGOS Markets are all at present in the red; session volatility is light. The Gold Update sees safe downside for the yellow metal toward 1975 without causing any concern for the overall uptrend(s); still by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” are in real-time dropping below their key +80 axis, warranting a price move sub-2000. Of greater concern is misfortune in the making for the S&P which remains inanely overextended both fundamentally (unsupportive earnings) and technically (beyond “overbought”). Spoo volume today is rolling from the December cac into that for March, with an additional +52 points of fresh premium. The Econ Baro is quiet, albeit with an ample load of metrics as the balance of the week unfolds.
‘Tis StateSide November Payrolls day for the Econ Baro, and at present seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are within their Neutral Zones, the only outlier being Oil above same; the latter appears trying to firm ’round the 70 handle. Session volatility is light, (except again for the non-BEGOS component Yen which has traced 119% of its EDTR as the BOJ interest rate play continues). The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the past 22 trading days and the “live” P/E is 43.3x; however, the recent MoneyFlow deterioration has (for the moment) righted itself, indicative of money being thrown at a terrifically expensive stock market. In addition to jobs data, the Baro also looks to December’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets volatility is again mostly light with the non-BEGOS exception of the Yen which already has traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges for the standard BEGOS components). Gold has calmed from its wild Monday ride: currently 2047, by the Market Profile we’ve resistance notably in the 2062-2065 zone, with supports right round current price, plus at 2036-2034, 2023 and 2014. A day ahead of Payrolls data for the Econ Baro, today’s metrics include October’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
Gold, Copper and the Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Going ’round the horn for the five primary BEGOS components at Market Values, we’ve (in real-time): the Bond +6.5 points “high” above its smooth its smooth valuation line, the Euro “in line”, Gold +57 points “high”, Oil -9.5 points “low” and the Spoo +206 points “high”. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the last 20 trading days; the “live” P/E is 42.3x. For the Econ Baro we’ve November’s ADP Employment data, October’s Trade Deficit, and the revision to Q3’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
After achieving an All-Time High yesterday at 2152, Gold’s subsequent -113 intraday points drop ranks 5th-worst century-to-date; however the -5.3% drop ranks just 34th worst intraday. At present, the Euro, Copper and Spoo are below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility has returned to mostly light. Our most consistent Market Rhythm at present (10-test swing basis) is Gold’s 4hr Price Oscillator. As anticipated, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below the key +80% axis, indicative of lower prices near-term. And the Econ Baro looks to November’s ISM(Svc) Index.
After setting an All-Time High on Friday (to 2096, settle 2092), Gold spiked overnight some +50 points, only to since return below Friday’s settle. At present ’tis red across the board for all eight BEGOS Markets, and volatility is robust. More details on to where the yellow metal can go near-to-medium term in The Gold Update, (which too outlines the case for an S&P “crash”). Note at the website the S&P 500 Moneyflow differential beginning to weaken, oft a precursor to lower price levels. Due for the Econ Baro is October’s Factory Orders.
All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is light. Gold appears rather hesitant just below record-high territory: FedFuts are 2060; the record high is 2089; but by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +73 points above its smooth valuation line; still by Market Trends, Gold is firmly in an uptrend, the “Baby Blues” therein continuing to climb; again a comprehensive assessment in tomorrow’s Gold Update. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through 17 consecutive trading sessions: the “live” P/E is a futs-adj’d 43.0x. The Econ Baro concludes its week with November’s ISM(Mfg) Index and October’s Construction Spending.
At present, just Copper is the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility again is light-to-moderate. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) on Tuesday: “Santa clearly is contemplating a new all-time Gold high by Christmas. ‘Twould be 2075 spot a/o 2089 FebFuts. (On verra…)” Price since has reached 2073 (FebFuts); more in this coming Saturday edition of the Gold Update. Looking at Market Rhythms, the most consistent at present are (on a 10-test basis) the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS component) 1hr Price Oscillator and 2hr Moneyflow, and Gold’s 4hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve the Yen’s 15mn MACD along with Gold’s 30mn MACD and 30mn Price Oscillator. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, including November’s Chi PMI, plus October’s Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, and the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index.
The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is light-to-moderate. After flipping from Long-to-Short, the Bond’s daily parabolics whip-sawed back to Long: however, we’re minding the Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) for their breaking below the key +80% axis. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the primary BEGOS components, in real-time we’ve the Bond nearly +6 points “high” above the smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0316 points “high”, Gold +64 points “high”, Oil -7.17 points “low”, and the Spoo a whopping +253 points “high”. The Econ Baro awaits the second peek at Q3 GDP. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is light. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from December into February, with +20 points of premium; other rollovers in process include Silver, Copper and the Bond, all from December into March. As anticipated, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are teasing their +80% axis: confirmation below that level is suggestive of weaker prices near-term; too, the Bond’s daily Parabolics confirmed flipping from Long to Short effective today’s open. For the Econ Baro we’ve November’s Consumer Confidence.
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones: the white metal, (which has been lagging Gold’s performance), has provisionally flipped its weekly parabolic from Short to Long; confirmation should come at next Friday’s settle. The Spoo is at present below its Neutral Zone. And BEGOS Markets volatility is again moderate. The “textbook overbought” streak of the S&P itself is now through 13 sessions. The Gold Update (brief as planned) is price-bullish, especially given the yellow metal having recorded net gains for the six past Decembers. The Econ Baro starts a week of 12 incoming metrics with October’s New Home Sales.
The second day of the otherwise abbreviated trading session finds the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” appear poised to begin their descent in the ensuing week; and by Market Values, the Bond in real-time is nearly +5 points above its smooth valuation line. As for the Spoo, ’tis +265 points above same, and the fut’s-adj’d live P/E of the S&P is 44.2x. We’ve early closures today across all the components and the Econ Baro is complete for the week.
Just brief and early this morning, (our going into motion across the next few days): only Copper is at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; BEGOS Markets volatility is light. Yesterday’s S&P 500’s down move nonetheless maintains a “textbook overbought” rating for the Index, however now “moderate” rather than “extreme”; (such condition can take days, even weeks, to unravel). And metrics to close out the week for the Econ Baro include October’s Durable Orders. Happy T-Day to you StateSiders and fellow USAers ’round the globe.
The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is leaning toward moderate, (the non-BEGOS Yen having again exceeded 100% of its Expected Daily Trading Range). The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the past 10 sessions, the last five of which are at an extreme overbought reading: the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 44.7x, essentially double the 66-year historical mean. The Econ Baro awaits October’s Existing Home Sales; and late in the session comes the FOMC’s 31 Oct/01 Nov meeting minutes.
The abbreviated trading week gets going with the Swiss Franc and Oil at present above today’s Neutral Zone; below same is the Bond: recall our noting to mind the Bond’s “Baby Blues” (at either the Bond or Market Trends page); the Blues in real-time are beginning to roll over (albeit still are above their key +80% level). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate; indeed for the Yen (not yet officially a BEGOS component), it has already traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites price having moved back above successfully tested support, in concert with inflation having purportedly come to a halt and the Econ Baro recording its 10th worse 12-day stint since the Baro’s inception back in 1998. The Baro today looks to October’s leading (i.e. “lagging”) indicators, one of just five metrics due for this week.
‘Twould appear to be a quiet Friday in the making: all eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones, and volatility is very light. October’s Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro, which itself has had quite the torrid week (https://demeadville.com/economic-barometer/); more on that in tomorrow’s 731st edition of The Gold Update. In real-time at Market Trends, the 21-day linreg trends are now perfectly flat for both the Swiss Franc and Silver, (the latter nonetheless getting a boost from the aforementioned daily Parabolics having flipped to Long). ‘Tis the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, for which the S&P 500 constituents finds 64% having improved their bottom lines of a year ago.
Both the Bond and Gold are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light ahead of a busy day for incoming EconData. Silver’s daily Parabolics flipped to Long effective today’s open (23.510): the average maximum follow-though of the past 10 such studies (either Long or Short) is 1.695 points. At Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” are above the key +80% axis; upon their eventual decline below that level, we’d then anticipate lower price levels. Included amongst today’s seven incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are November’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, along with October’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/Cap/Util.
October’s CPI indeed was “center stage” (per yesterday’s comment), the headline retail level coming in “unch”. In turn the Dollar dove and the BEGOS Markets unimpededly rose. Today ahead of wholesale inflation we’ve both Gold and Silver at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS components are within same, and volatility is light. Yesterday’s S&P 500 +1.9% rise now finds the Spoo (in real-time) +216 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): historically such extreme deviation leads on average to price descending by well over -100 points within the ensuing weeks such that we may soon see the S&P below where ’twas prior to the inflation data (4411 vs. now 4491); too there’s the “live” P/E of the S&P now 44.9x. Overall today for the Econ Baro we’ve November’s NY State Empire Index, October’s PPI and Retail Sales, plus September’s Business Inventories.
The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is very light, the Econ Baro awaiting October’s CPI to take center stage. Heading our Market Rhythms for trading consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Euro’s daily Moneyflow, Oil’s 30mn Parabolics and Silver’s daily Parabolics, (too, whilst not a BEGOS component, the Yen’s 1hr Moneyflow also qualifies). The “live” (futs-adj’d) p/e of the S&P 500 is now 42.9x and the yield 1.569% whereas that for the “riskless” U.S. three-month T-Bill is an annualized 5.260%. And in real-time, the Spoo is +127 points above its smooth valuation line, the S&P itself now “textbook overbought” through the past five sessions.
Both Silver and Oil are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is Copper, and BEGOS Markets volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update confirms our anticipated typical post-geopolitical price pullback: visually therein on the Weekly Bars graphic we’ve placed the 1980-1922 support structure, (expandable to 2001-1901 if need be); and in real-time, Gold is now just +35 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) after having been some +120 points above it. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 metrics due, beginning (again purportedly) today with October’s Treasury Budget. Too, ’tis the final week of a “so-so at best” Q3 Earnings Season.
The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the Swiss Franc is below same, and BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Profile resistors for the Spoo (presently 4372) we’ve the 4381-4384 area followed more dominantly by 4396; whilst by Market Trends the Spoo’s linreg in real-time has just rotated to positive, there is broader structural resistance running from 4341 up to 4431; and by Market Values, the Spoo is now +59 points above its smooth valuation line; for the S&P itself, ’tis now “textbook overbought” through these past three trading days. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with November’s UofM Sentiment Survey and (purportedly) October’s Treasury Budget.
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light, save for Copper which has traced 57% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As Gold’s “Baby Blues” continue to descend, price has thus far traded to as low as 1953: recall from the current edition of the Gold Update the mention of 1951 as a mid-structural support level; currently priced at 1955, Gold is now +58 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) after having been better than +100 above it through recent days. Indeed for Gold, Silver and the Swiss Franc, their “Baby Blues” all having fallen below the key +80% level have in turn seen lower price levels. As the Econ Baro’s subdued week continues, only due today are the usual weekly Jobless Claims.
The Bond and EuroCurrencies are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. At Market Ranges, the recent EDTR widenings for the Bond, Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo appear for now to have peaked. Following Gold’s “Baby Blues” falling below their key +80% level, price (now 1974) has since weakened to as low as 1963 yesterday; the Blues in real-time continue to drop as do those for the Swiss Franc, Silver and Oil. The “live” (fut’s adj’d) P/E of the S&P is now 42.5x and the Gold/Silver ratio a very “Silver-attractive” 87.4x despite the present Blues negativity. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Wholesale Inventories.
All eight BEGOS Markets are in the red and all at present (save for the Bond) are below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is mostly moderate. Gold confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) dropping below their key +80% level; priced now at 1976, we can see 1946 trading near-term, well within the context of the support zone described in the current edition of The Gold Update. By Market Rhythms, the most consistent on a 10-test basis is the Euro’s daily Moneyflow which has been near or at the top of all 405 studies now for some time; on a 24-test basis, both the Bond’s 15mn Parabolics and Moneyflow studies top the list, along with the Spoo’s 15min Parabolics. The Econ Baro’s rather “un-busy” week looks to September’s Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
The BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate as the new week unfolds. At present, Copper is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Gold is below same. The Gold Update anticipates a typical post-geopolitical price pullback is nigh; indeed at Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” are in real-time slipping below their key +80% axis, (as have Silver’s already so done); confirmation of the “Baby Blues” settling below that level generally leads to lower prices near-term; too, Gold by Market Values is (in real-time) +106 points above its smooth valuation line. Despite all the excitement over the S&P’s recent rally, price has merely returned to where ’twas three weeks ago, the P/E ratio accelerating last week now to 40.9x as Q3 Earnings Season remains rather average at best; (’twas 39.0x those three weeks ago). Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro as it faces a fairly light load this week with just six metrics due through Friday.
Silver is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light with October’s Payrolls data in the balance. Yesterday’s +1.9% S&P 500 rise was sufficient to fully unwind the “textbook oversold” stance that had been in place since 23 October; too on Thursday, the S&P’s P/E rose from 34.7x to now 38.8x: with still some 100 Q3 earnings reports due for the S&P, fully one-third thus far have not improved their year-over-year bottom lines; (as penned in last Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update, for the S&P we’re seeing that “…bounce before the next trounce…”); and by Market Values, this bounce has lifted the Spoo up to its smooth valuation line, price back to where ’twas two weeks ago. In addition to the Econ Baro’s incoming jobs data, we’ve also October’s ISM(Svc) Index.
Post-Fed the EuroCurrencies are getting a bid, both the Euro and Swiss Franc at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is Copper; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Silver confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) moving below the key +80% level, indicative of lower prices near-term: we are eying 22.18 (current is 23.10) barring geo-political price-rise resumption. As the S&P 500 works through Q3 Earnings Season, with 318 constituents having thus far reported, 65% have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago; however more broadly, only 52% have improved. For the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include the initial read of Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus September’s Factory Orders.
As Mid-East headlines fall a bit from above the fold, so too falling are the precious metals’ prices: both Gold and Silver are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light with the FOMC’s Policy Statement in the balance. By Market Profiles, Gold is testing its 1989 trading support, the next such level being 1963; for Silver, its key 23.00 level is being tested. Also by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” have started to roll over to the downside, and moreover, those for Silver (in real-time) have provisionally dropped below their +80% level suggestive of lower prices near-term. The Econ Baro looks to October’s ADP employment data and ISM Index, plus September’s Construction spending.
The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate; thereto of note, whilst not (yet) a BEGOS component, the Yen has traced 235% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges for those of the BEGOS Markets) as the BOJ maintains its long-term debt rate of 0% (as opposed to going negative). StateSide, the S&P 500 yesterday gained +1.2%: however the MoneyFlow was only +0.5%, indicative of the relief rally (from the Index’s still “textbook oversold” condition) lacking substance. Going ’round the Market Values page (in real-time) for the primary BEGOS Markets, we’ve the Bond nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.016 points “high”, Gold +131 points “high”, Oil -4.89 points “low” and the Spoo -143 points “low”. The Econ Baro awaits October’s Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, plus Q3’s Employment Cost Index.
The “textbook oversold” S&P 500 looks to get a boost at the open, the Spoo at present above today’s Neutral Zone; below same are both Gold and Oil, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update reiterates the yellow metal still as “range-bound” rather than “moon-bound”: 1989 is dominant trading support by the 10-day Market Profile; we’re wary as well that by Market Values, Gold (in real-time at 2005) is +131 points above its smooth valuation line. Leading the Market Rhythms for consistency (10-test basis) is Silver with a variety of studies: its daily Parabolics, 12hr MACD, 8hr Price Oscillator, and both the 6hr Price Oscillator and Moneyflow; too, is the Euro’s daily Moneyflow. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 15 metrics on the table, (none due today).
The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Market’s volatility is mostly light. As tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, we’re finally seeing some “fear” in the Flow, the S&P 500 falling -1.2% yesterday, but its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points was -2.4%; still, the Index for the present is “textbook oversold”, so perhaps some bounce to unwind that condition, followed then by lower levels sub-4000 (S&P at present is 4137). At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” have (in real-time) provisionally slipped below their +80% level, suggestive of lower prices near-term, which coincident with a Fed rate hike would further foster Dollar strength. Indeed ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement, the Econ Baro’s incoming metrics for today include the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Price Index along with the month’s Personal Income/Spending.
At present we’ve the Metals Triumvirate higher and the EuroCurrencies lower. Notably for the second straight session (to this point), both Gold and the Dollar are gaining, (“Gold plays no currency favourites”). The Spoo continues to work lower: as we’ve (yet) to see “fear” in the S&P’s MoneyFlow, (when otherwise Flow falls at a faster rate than the Index itself), this feels mildly reminiscent of the old so-called “Gentlemen’s Crash”, although hardly has price fallen nearly to any crash proportion. These next two days have key incoming metrics for the Econ Baro ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement: today we await the first peek at Q3’s GDP, along with other reports including September’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.
At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is at best light. In looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the most profitably consistent through yesterday are Silver’s 8hr Price Oscillator, 12hr MACD, 6hr Moneyflow and daily Parabolics, plus Oil’s 4hr Moneyflow, the Euro’s daily Moneyflow, and the Swiss Franc’s daily MACD. On a 24-test basis, the best is Gold’s 1hr Price Oscillator. By our S&P MoneyFlow page, we’ve still yet to detect any real fear, even as our “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is now 36.9x. The Econ Baro gets its back-loaded week underway with September’s New Home Sales.
The Bond, Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light, save for Copper having already traced 67% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values we’ve Gold in (real-time) +107 points above its smooth valuation line. In tandem with the Dollar having weakened across the past two weeks, by Market Trends the linregs for Gold, Silver, the Euro and Swiss Franc all have rotated to positive; those for the other four BEGOS components remain negative. Yet Silver is still a laggard to Gold, the G/S ratio at 86x vs. the century-to-date average of 68x: as we from time-to-time quip in The Gold Update: “Don’t forget the Silver!”
Save for the Spoo, the other seven BEGOS Markets are in the red, all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update sees the yellow metal as remaining “range-bound” until the All-Time High (2089 vs. the current 1986) is eclipsed, (from which Gold then becomes “moon-bound”, ideally to its present Dollar debasement value of 3724). The Econ Baro is back-loaded this week from Wednesday on, key reports including Q3 GDP and the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index. And thus far, Q3 earnings by year-over-year comparison is relatively weak: mind our Earnings Season page.
Per our tweet (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, “Flow leads dough…” as is now being depicted on the MoneyFlow page for the S&P 500; too, our notion of the Spoo attaining the 4500 level at least near-term (based on the upside reversal at Market Trends of the “Baby Blues” two weeks ago) is now nixed, even as the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend has just turned positive; again, 4431 nears to clear for a run to 4500. Today at present, the Bond is above its Neutral Zone; both the Euro and Copper are below same, and BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, within the context of Market Ranges (EDTRs) having expanded. Gold’s EDTR is now 26 points, meaning that 2000+ is within range today; presently 1987, Gold’s nearest dominant Market Profile supporter is 1963. The Econ Baro is scheduled to close its week with September’s Treasury Budget.
Narrow ranges thus far characterize the BEGOS Markets: only the Bond is at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today, and volatility is notably light, the Bond with the widest EDTR tracing to this point (see Market Ranges) at just 37%. Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Short to Long, (confirmation to come upon Friday’s settle); price, which just two weeks ago was better than -100 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Ranges) is now (in real-time) 71 points above same. As for the Spoo, should the recent 4431 high not be eclipsed, our 4500 notion likely gets nixed. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include October’s Philly Fed Index plus September’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
The Metals Triumvirate and Oil are the BEGOS Markets’ leaders thus far, those four all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Bond, and volatility is moderate. On a $/cac basis, Silver is the broadest mover, at present +$1725. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” appear poised to break above their 0% axis by week’s end: again from the week prior we’ve ruminated about the Spoo making a go for 4500, (the S&P’s vastly high “live” P/E of 38.3x notwithstanding). And per the Euro’s page, its best Market Rhythm — the daily MoneyFlow study — triggered a Long signal per yesterday’s open (1.05885). For the Econ Baro we’ve September’s Housing Starts/Permits; then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome for October.
‘Tis red across the board for the BEGOS Markets, notably with the Bond, Euro, Gold, Copper and Oil all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility however is mostly light. On a $/cac change basis, Copper’s is the most at the moment, -$1,012. At Market Trends, whilst all eight components are still in negative linreg trends, all their “Baby Blues” are in ascent, meaning the trends’ downside consistencies are waning. By the Spoo’s Market Profile the most dominant resistor above present price (4394) is 4401. And Oil’s cac volume is rolling from November into December. For the Econ Baro we await October’s NAHB Housing Index, September’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and August’s Business Inventories.