Save for Oil and the Spoo, the other six BEGOS Markets are lower, notably with the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the Spoo is above same, and volatility is light. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have — for the second time in as many weeks — moved above their key -80% axis: thus we look to still higher Bond prices near-term following Friday’s low of 115^09 (present price is 116^12). In looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our current leaders for pure swing consistency are Oil’s 8hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 8hr Price Oscillator and the Spoo’s 1hr Moneyflow; the lone leader on a 24-test basis continues to the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And with the “live” futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P now 45.2x, we’ve three days left to run in this sub-par Q3 Earnings Season.
The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Gold; ’tis a bit ironic given our best current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets is positive between the Euro and Gold, albeit market dynamics continually shift; session volatility is quite light. Gold has moved back above 2600, however our anticipated move lower into the 2400s remains very viable, the weekly parabolic trend being newly Short along with the negative MACD crossover; still, Gold has cleared the 2615 handle which by the Market Profile is the most dominantly-traded price of the past fortnight; mind, too, Gold’s price vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): in real-time, price is presently -57 points “low”. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues its “textbook overbought” streak, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 44.8x. The Econ Baro looks to October’s Housing Starts/Permits.
At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are in the black, with the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo currently above their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update acknowledges our anticipated pullback in price, with potentially lower levels at least near-term as the weekly MACD confirmed a negative crossing at week’s close such that the upper 2400s would not be untoward. For the Spoo, price on Friday confirmed piercing to the downside its Market Magnet, suggestive of still lower levels; by Market Values (in real-time), the Spoo shows as +140 points “high”; and despite last week’s selling, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook overbought” through 23 of the past 27 trading days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is presently 44.0x. For the Econ Baro ’tis a fairly light week, beginning today with November’s NAHB Housing Index. And Q3 Earnings Season continues into its final week.
Ahead of a significant load of incoming Econ Baro data, we find the BEGOS Markets fairly mixed, the Euro and Swiss Franc at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Oil and the Spoo; session volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday the S&P 500 — even being down — posted its 22nd of the past 26 trading days as “textbook overbought”; specific to the Spoo, (for which its all-time high is 6053 per this past Monday), price appears on a downward bent to at least test the prior 17 October high of 5927; the Spoo’s daily MACD seems headed for a negative crossing early into the ensuing week, although by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” still are in ascent. Again, we’re extending our coverage of Q3 Earnings Season an extra week: thus far for the S&P, 65% of bottom lines have been better over Q3 of a year ago: that is a below-average rate of improvement. Of note, Gold yesterday reached down to the “average” adversity level of 2555 that was mused in last Saturday’s Gold Update; tomorrow brings edition No. 783. And as to the busy Baro, it looks to November’s NY State Empire Index, October’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus September’s Business Inventories.
‘Tis red across the board for all eight BEGOS Markets, albeit not at present below today’s Neutral Zones are both the Bond and Oil; volatility is mostly moderate. Our best current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Euro. The S&P 500 yesterday reached our “extreme” level of being “textbook overbought”, meaning price has become excessively high by its BollBands, RSI and Stochastics; and the Spoo in real-time is +228 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); too by Market Trends, the Spoo is the sole market (of all eight) sporting a positive 21-day linear regression trend. The Dollar Index today has reached its firmest level (106.695) since 01 November 2023. And included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro we’ve October’s wholesale inflation (PPI), expectations there for an increase over the September data by both the headline and core readings.
We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo all below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light. The buying into the S&P 500 of late has been substantive given our MoneyFlow page: both the one week and one month differentials are positive, whilst the quarterly measure has significantly reduced its negative stance; ‘course the Index nonetheless remains vastly overvalued both fundamentally (lack of supportive earnings) and certainly so near-term (technically). Our BEGOS Market Rhythms’ leaders for best swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Oil’s 8hr Moneyflow, the Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow, and for Silver its 8hr and 2hr Price Oscillators, plus its 1hr Moneyflow; too (on a 24-test basis) we’ve still the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, along with Copper’s 30mn Parabolics. And October’s retail inflation (CPI) comes due for the Econ Baro as well as (purportedly) the month’s Treasury Budget.
The elements of the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. As anticipated through recent weeks, Gold finally let go yesterday to the downside: price’s intra-day drop by both points (-76) and percentage (-2.8%) ranked fifth-weakest year-to-date. In turn, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long to Short, whilst price has moved below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). That for the Spoo is (in real-time) +247 points above same: the S&P 500 itself with its “live” P/E of 46.4x is now “textbook overbought” through 19 days of the past 23. We’re extending our coverage of Q3 earnings out an additional week (through 22 November) given some key constituent S&P stragglers still therein to report. Again the Econ Baro is quiet today with 14 metrics due Wednesday through Friday.
The week’s underway with — at present — the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Spoo, and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to two pending negative crossings for price: should it pierce sub-2650 this week, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall flip to Short; and by Market Values, Gold in real-time is only +13 points above today’s smooth valuation line, the penetration of which then would also suggest lower levels near-term. Too, in real-time, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have provisionally moved below their 0% axis, with those for Gold within a day or so of doing same, barring a firm rally. The Econ Baro is quiet both today and tomorrow, the balance of the week highlighted by metrics for inflation and retail sales. And ’tis the final week of an on-balance below-par Q3 Earnings Season for the S&P 500, for which the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is presently 46.7x.
Early on, down is the watchword across the BEGOS Markets, the sole exception being the Bond +1 pip; otherwise, only the Swiss Franc and Spoo are not at present below today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. With one week plus a day to run in Q3 Earnings Season, 65% of the S&P 500’s constituent’s have bettered their bottom lines from Q3 a year ago, which across the past seven years (ex-COVID’s 2020 quarters) is below the 68% improvement average. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P at this instant is 44.4x and the yield 1.234%; the three-month U.S. T-Bill’s annualized yield is 4.420%. The Spoo, now over 6000, is by Market Values (in real-time) +226 points above its smooth valuation line. And the S&P itself is now “textbook overbought” through 17 of the past 21 trading days. The Econ Baro rounds out its week with November’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
The BEGOS Markets are returning to a more orderly condition post-election: at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility — after having been extremely robust — is now moderate. Yesterday, Gold’s “Baby Blues” confirmed settling below their key +80% axis, suggestive of further near-term selling from which (as you regular readers know) had been an ongoing near-term overvalued stance: indeed by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is but +14 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the penetration of which would also suggest further downside, all of which we’ll assess in Saturday’s Gold Update. As for other Market Values’ deviations: the bond shows as nearly -5 points “low”, the Euro -0.018 points, “low”, Oil basically “in-line”, and the Spoo +186 points “high”. The day’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include September’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit, plus the initial read on Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. And come 19;00 GMT, the FOMC releases its Policy Statement for which expectations are a -25bp FedFunds rate cut.
As anticipated in yesterday’s comment given the StateSide election, overnight volatility in the BEGOS Markets was both thin and very volatile: the average EDTR (see Market ranges) tracing thus far across the eight BEGOS components is an extreme 216 points. The Spoo is the sole market above today’s Neutral Zone; the other seven components are below same. Were the S&P to open at this instant, ‘twould “instantly” gap to a record-high 5891, (the current all-time high being 5878). By Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis for pure swing consistency, our leaders (through yesterday’s session) are Oil’s 8hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 8hr Price Oscillator, and Copper’s 8hr Moneyflow, (a lot of commonality there for measuring on an 8hr time frame); for the 24-test basis, we still highlight the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euro’s 15mn MACD. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And the FOMC commences its two-day meeting, their Policy Statement scheduled for release tomorrow.
Both the Euro and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. In both our Prescient Commentary and the current edition of the Gold Update we’ve anticipated near-term rises for the Euro and Copper, and indeed that has come to pass at least to the point, the impetus being the up movements in their respective “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) from having been below their -80% axes. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best at present is negative between Oil and the Spoo. For the Econ Baro we’ve October’s ISM(Svc) Index and September’s Trade Deficit. Too, StateSide, ’tis Election Day, after which overnight trading conditions may be quite thin and volatile.
‘Tis black across the board to start the week for all eight BEGOS Markets, with seven of them at present above today’s Neutral Zones, the sole one within being Gold; volatility already is moderate-to-robust with the StateSide election (Tuesday) and FOMC Policy Statement (Thursday) in the week’s balance. The Gold Update continues pointing to the yellow metal being overvalued near-term, yet undervalued long-term; and our inflation table therein highlights the pickup in the “Fed-Favoured” Core PCE Prices Index. By Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +99 points above its smooth valuation line. Otherwise, ’tis a fairly light week of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, beginning today with September’s Factory Orders.
Both the Bond and Gold are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. ‘Twas somewhat refreshing to see yesterday’s -1.9% dip in the S&P 500, the Spoo finally coming back in line with its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the for time since 10 September; indeed the Spoo retraced back nearly a month’s worth of gains in a single session; ‘course more broadly, the S&P itself remains extremely expensive, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E presently 41.5x. Gold, too, had a bit of a hoovering, albeit price (in real-time) is still well above its smooth valuation line by +111 points; more in tomorrow’s 781st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro looks to close out its busy week with October’s Payrolls Data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus September’s Construction Spending.
The Bond is at present above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same are both Gold and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate; the non-BEGOS Yen has already traced 126% of its EDTR, (for that of the actual BEGOS components see Market Ranges); the Yen has worked all the way back up to close the gap following its fallout from last Sunday’s parliamentary election. By Market Trends, the 21-day linregs are positive for Gold, Silver and the Spoo, but are negative for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and Copper: as noted yesterday however, Copper’s “Baby Blues” have moved above their key -80% axis, typically meaning a near-term up move for price. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metric’s including October’s Chi PMI, September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Prices as an inflation gauge, plus Q3’s Employment Cost Index.
At present we’ve Gold as the sole BEGOS Market above its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light. The yellow metal today has traded above 2800 (2802) for a fresh All-Time High. And leading all 405 of our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is Gold by its 4hr Moneyflow. On a 24-test basis, the leader is still the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, followed by Copper’s 15mn Moneyflow: the red metal’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) yesterday confirmed having moved above their -80% axis, suggestive of a near-term run from here in the 4.30s up into the 4.50s. For the Econ Baro we’ve October’s ADP Employment data, September’s Pending Home Sales, and the first peek at GDP for Q3.
Safe havens are getting the bid early on as we’ve the Bond, Gold and Silver all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are Copper and Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. Our best current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is negative between Oil and the Spoo: the best Market Rhythms therein (both on a 10-test basis for pure swing consistency) for Oil is its 8hr Moneyflow and for the Spoo its 12hr MACD. Gold’s All-Time High is 2773 (23 October) with present price 2767 and an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 30 points; still, by Market Values, Gold near-term remains “high”, now (in real time)+123 points above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro we await October’s Consumer Confidence.
We begin the busy week finding at present the Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Oil below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is the Spoo, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond already having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update lauds the yellow metal’s near-perfect performance this year, indeed having come within $1,000/oz. of its Dollar debasement valuation for the first time in ten years; still, we warily point to Gold’s near-term overvaluation per price’s movement relative to the other primary BEGOS Markets: in real-time, Gold is +117 points above that smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a slew of 17 incoming metrics as the week unfolds. And at the halfway point of Q3 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 constituents, ’tis running about average per prior year-over-year quarterly improvements (68% thus far doing better and thus 32% not so).
At present, we’ve the Bond above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. With the exception of Silver, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been falling for recent weeks across the BEGOS’ board; for example, specific to the Spoo, its EDTR for 08 August was at a 124-point peak: for today’s session ’tis set for 57 points. By its Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominantly-traded handles across the past fortnight are right here at 5849, notable overhead resistors being 5863, 5886, 5897 and 5909; and in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +99 point above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with metrics including September’s Durable Orders.
Following a day wherein all eight BEGOS Markets finished in the red, today they all are at present in the black; currently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, the Metals Triumvirate, and Oil; session volatility is light. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line shows as nearly -7 points “low”, the Euro as -0.035 points “low”, Gold as +101 points “high”, Oil as fairly in line (as has been its case for almost two weeks), and the Spoo as +104 points “high” even accounting for yesterday’s selling; too, the S&P 500 itself (-0.9% yesterday) remains “textbook overbought” through a 10th day. Incoming metrics due for the Econ Baro include September’s New Home Sales.
We’ve both the Bond and Swiss Franc at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold for now a fifth-consecutive session has recorded an All-Time High, this latest thus far today being 2767; too, Silver has achieved the 35 handle for the first time since 05 October 2012; the Gold/Silver ratio is currently 79.3x, meaning Silver remains historically quite cheap relative to Gold, itself — despite new highs — still very cheap given Dollar debasement. As for Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis for the best we’ve the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics and for the Bond both its 12hr Parabolics and 2hr Moneyflow; on the 24-test basis, the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator still tops the list. The Econ Baro looks to September’s Existing Home Sales; the later in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome for October.
The Bond continues to work lower as yields rise, price at present below today’s Neutral Zone as is the Spoo; above same are both Gold and Silver, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility again is light. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have not yet eclipsed above their -80% axis as the selling continues. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is currently negative between the Bond and Oil. The S&P 500 completed its eighth consecutive session as “textbook overbought”; the Index’s MoneyFlow, whilst coming back into line near-term, still on a quarterly basis shows the S&P as some +250 points “too high”; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is now 44.0x, thus no substantive improvement in bottom lines relative to price as Q3 Earnings Season continues, now into its third week of six. The yield on the S&P is 1.255% vs. 4.518% annualized on risk-free U.S. three-month dough.
At present we’ve the Euro below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Gold thus far has made a marginal All-Time High at 2748; The Gold Update cites price’s having risen even as — unusually — have the levels of the Dollar Index, yields, S&P 500, as well as the equivalent rate of the FedFundsFutures; regardless, we remain wary of Gold (by Market Values) being +110 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation to which price inevitably reverts. ‘Tis a fairly light week for incoming Econ Baro metrics, today bringing September’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. Q3 Earnings Season enters its third week of six scheduled: thus far for the S&P 500: 82% have beaten estimates, but only 64% have improved over Q3 a year ago.
The three elements of our Metals Triumvirate are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Bond; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Wednesday’s comment, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have yet to curl up above their -80% axis: thus at bay remains our notion for a move up into the 124s, (price currently 119^28); moreover, the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s open, that study leading (for pure swing consistency) the 405 studies tested nightly for our Market Rhythms. Gold has made All-Time Highs both yesterday and thus far today up to 2729 even as price vis-à-vis its smooth Market Values line shows (in real-time) as +99 points “high”; more of course in tomorrow’s 779th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro concludes its week with September’s Housing Starts/Permits.
The Bond, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper all are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; Gold is above same, and session volatility is light. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS Markets (in real-time): the Bond is better than -5 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.035 points “low”, Gold +73 points “high”, Oil basically in line, and the Spoo +169 points “high”. Gold at 2697 is by its EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 31 points well within range of an All-Time High (2709). And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including October’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, September’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus August’s Business Inventories.
At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is quite light. By Market Rhythms, the best of the bunch for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis we’ve the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, and the 30mn Moneyflow on both the Swiss Franc and Spoo. At Market Trends, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” — although still below their -80% axis — have begun curling upward: upon confirmation of eclipsing -80% we look for price to move up into the 124s. Cac volume for Oil has begun rolling from November into December. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Ex/Im Prices. And with Q3 Earnings Season still quite young, of the 21 S&P 500 constituents having thus far reported, 10 (48%) did not improve their bottom lines from Q3 a year ago.
As was the case ’round this time yesterday, again both Copper and Oil are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as too is the Euro; the Bond is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Bond and Euro. The Dollar Index is at a two-month high (103.120). The S&P 500 yesterday achieved another record high at 5871, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E now 44.2x. FedFundsFutures are indictive of the FOMC going with a -25bp rate cut come 07 November. The Econ Baro awaits October’s NY State Empire Index.
We’ve both Copper and Oil at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update — a brief edition given our having been in motion on the weekend — reiterates our near-term wariness for some weakness in price, whilst emphasizing our long-term bullish view; this morning, Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are continuing their descent as is the case for all the BEGOS components save for Oil and the Spoo. By Market Profiles, Gold’s most notable trading support by volume is 2671-2166, whilst Silver sees overhead resistance from 31.75 to 32.00. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of some 13-14 incoming metrics as the week unfolds; too, the pace increases for Q3 Earnings Season reports
Similar to yesterday at this hour, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is very light ahead of StateSide wholesale inflation for September. Gold is the sole component outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; price is recovering much of its intra-week loss, although in real-time ’tis +54 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); too, as is the case with Silver, the Euro Currencies, the Bond and Copper, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are clearly in descent (see Market Trends) in concert with the rebounding Dollar these past two weeks. As noted in the still current edition (No. 777) of The Gold Update, tomorrow’s edition (No. 778) is likely to be quite brief as we shall be “in motion” from remote, easternmost England; regardless, we shall highlight the key salient state of Gold. As noted today for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics include September’s PPI and purportedly the month’s Treasury Budget (which yesterday was not released), plus October’s UofM Sentiment Survey.
As we saw yesterday ’round this time, the eight BEGOS Markets are presently all within today’s Neutral Zones, with volatility very light (the average Market Ranges’ EDTR thus far just 23%) ahead of retail inflation for September. Gold from Monday’s open to Wednesday’s close is sporting its weakest down week by points since that ending 24 May, (obviously with two trading days still in the balance); but ’tis indicative of the near-term overvaluation unwinding, price in real-time now only +31 points above its smooth valuation line by Market Values. The S&P 500 set a record high yesterday at 5797: the “live” futs-adj’d P/E is now 43.8x which is 72% above its inception back in 2013, underscoring the continuously extreme overbought condition of equities, especially given the far better returns in the StateSide debt market. Included with September’s CPI, the Econ Baro also awaits metrics that include the month’s Treasury Budget.
We’ve all eight BEGOS Markets at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is quite light, indeed just half of what ’twas at this point yesterday. Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have followed those of Silver by also having confirmed settling below the key +80% axis; and indeed, Gold has been coming off thus far this week, albeit price is still (in real-time) +41 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Leading our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis is the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. August’s Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro; then later in the session is the issuing of the FOMC’s Minutes from the 17-18 September meeting.
At present we’ve the Bond above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same are both Copper and Oil; session volatility on balance for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate, albeit Copper and Oil already have traded beyond 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). As noted yesterday, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have confirmed settling below their key +80% axis and those for Gold in real-time are provisionally below same: thus we’d look for lower precious metals prices near-term, perhaps for Silver right ’round 31 and for Gold 2620-2570; the latter by Market Values is in real-time +79 points above its smooth valuation line. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 41.9x and the yield 1.302%; that for the risk-free 3mo T-Bill is 4.525%. The Econ Baro awaits August’s Trade Deficit.
As has been the case in recent trading sessions, we again see ’round this time that both precious metals are outside of today’s Neutral Zones, in instance being below them, whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is light. The Gold Update extols Silver’s sterling past week even as Gold stood idly by; however, again is emphasized that Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) has notably been “high”, at present +85 points by that metric; mind too Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) which in are curling lower, and indeed those for Silver have (in real-time) moved below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices near-term. Late in the session for the Econ Baro comes August’s Consumer Credit. And Earnings Season for Q3 commences.
At present we’ve the Swiss Franc and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, and volatility is light with September’s StateSide Payrolls for the Econ Baro in the balance. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency confirmed dropping below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower price levels near-term, (see Market Trends); by structural support of the S&P 500 itself, a Spoo move (inclusive of its current +50 “fair value” points) down below 5600 wouldn’t be untoward. Of note per Market Rhythms, the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator by its “continuous contract” (which regularly has been one of the best Rhythms per our 24-test pure swing basis) flipped to Short effective today’s open. As for Gold, ’tis been a relative lackluster week given Mid-East events; more on the precious metals tomorrow in our 777th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
Yet again in a 180° whirl-’round, today at this time we’ve both Gold and Silver below their respective Neutral Zones for today, as also is the Spoo; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light. For Gold by its Market Profile, we’ve volume resistance at 2684, whilst such support is at 2653; (Gold’s EDTR currently is 33 points per Market Ranges); price on balance has been little-affected by the present Mid-East tensions; still by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +116 points above its smooth valuation line, price not having been below that key metric since 25 July. For the Econ Baro we’ve data including September’s ISM(Svc) Index and August’s Factory Orders.
Whereas at this time yesterday both precious metals were above their Neutral Zones, today currently Gold and Silver are below them; the other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is pushing toward moderate, the geo-political impetus of yesterday having subdued. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on at 10-test basis our best through yesterday are the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics and Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 2hr Parabolics and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (as noted yesterday after a long stint as negative) have finally risen above their 0% axis, the linreg trend having rotated to positive. Today’s incoming metric for the Econ Baro is September’s ADP Employment data.
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. By correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Euro and Gold. At Market Trends, the Bond’s linreg has rotated from positive to negative, as has been the case for Oil since 23 July; the balance of the BEGOS bunch still sport positive linregs with fairly firm “Baby Blues” for trend consistency. Q3 commences with the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 at 42.5x and the yield 1.283% vs. 4.498% on the risk-free 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro looks to September’s ISM(Mfg) Index and August’s Construction Spending.
Both Copper and Oil are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility runs from light-to-robust, Copper notably already having raced 151% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update — despite the yellow metal’s recent run to record highs — cautions near-term overvaluation vis-à-vis Gold’s Market Value, price (in real-time) +141 points above its smooth valuation line; the missive also issues our multi-catalyst stock market warning. ‘Tis the final trading day of Q3, the S&P 500 sporting the “live” P/E of 42.3x and the Spoo (in real-time) now +220 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values for all five primary BEGOS Markets’ like valuations). The Econ Baro begins its week with September’s Chi PMI.
The Swiss Franc plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Maintaining an eye on the Market Values (in real-time) of the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is basically trading at its smooth valuation line, the Euro is nearly +0.01 points “high”, Gold +156 points “high”, Oil -6.03 points “low”, and the Spoo +246 points “high”. Per Market Profiles for those five, the most heavily-traded prices of the last fortnight are: the Bond 125^00, the Euro 1.1160, Gold 2607, Oil 71.30 and the Spoo 5778. The Econ Baro concludes the week with metrics including August’s Personal Income/Spending and the “Fed-favoured” inflation read via Core PCE Prices.
Both Copper and the Spoo are on the up-move, each at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility spans from light for the Bond to robust for Oil, the latter having already traced 131% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil is the sole component with a negative linreg (see Market Trends), albeit the consistency of such downside trend is waning as its “Baby Blues” are into their 11th session of rising; too, by Market Values in real-time, Oil (now 67.67) is -6.14 points below its smooth valuation line; and by Market Profiles, Oil’s two notably overhead volume price resistors are 69.70 and 71.30. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the final revision to Q2 GDP.
We’ve weakness this morning in Silver and Copper, both at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. As to Market Rhythms, our leaders for pure swing consistency are currently (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, the Euro’s 15mn Moneyflow, and the 2hr MACD for both Silver and the Swiss Franc; too (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Bond’s 15mn MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 6hr MACD, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. The S&P 500 is now six days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 42.4x. The Econ Baro awaits August’s New Home Sales.
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; however, overall volatility is pushing well toward moderate, and specific to the red metal, it already has traced 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), plus (now 4.4145) price has moved up above its 10-day Market Profile, for which key volume-price supports therein are 4.3450 and 4.3000; too by Market Trends, Copper’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are smoothly rising. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of the S&P 500 is 42.2x. And today the week gets going for the Econ Baro with September’s Consumer Confidence.
We start the week to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal’s further flying to new highs, but does question the Fed’s -50bp rate cut versus our anticipated -25bp move; therein cited as well is the unsupportive monetary inflow of late into the otherwise record-setting S&P 500, (as too was “X’d” [@deMeadvillePro] this past Friday): mind the S&P 500 MoneyFlow page. Specific to the Spoo, in real-time ’tis +240 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of the week’s batch of 11 incoming metrics, including the “Fed-favoured” gauge of inflation — Core PCE Prices — come Friday.
The Swiss Franc along with the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 42.6x (+68% above its inception a dozen years ago) and the annualized yield 1.286% vs. 4.593% on risk-less 3mo U.S. dough; in the last 10 trading days, the S&P has swung from being mildly “textbook oversold” to now moderately “textbook overbought”: indeed through the 181 trading days year-to-date, the S&P has completed 113 of them (62%) in some degree of being near-term technically overbought as excess post-COVID monetary infusion ($7T) continues permeates risk-full equities. The somewhat “recovering” Econ Baro is at highest oscillative level since mid-June.
We were wrong about the Fed, it having cut its Funds Rates -50bp rather than by our -25bp assertion; and as is our wont, when we’re flat out wrong, we fess up; (more on the Fed in Saturday’s upcoming edition of The Gold Update). At present, the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil and the Spoo all are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility looks to be fully robust by session’s end. As to current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the most so is positive between Oil and the Spoo; (we view such correlations as important for hedging between two markets). The Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics that include September’s Philly Fed Index, August’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, plus Q2’s Current Account Deficit.
We’ve at present the Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, there are four to currently highlight on a 10-test basis: Oil’s 2hr Price Oscillator, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 1hr MACD; for the 24-test basis, the one standout is the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro we await August’s Housing Start/Permits. And ’tis “Fed Day”, the FOMC releasing its Policy Statement at 18:00 GMT: our assertion is a -25bp FedFunds cut from the present 5.25%-5.50% target range to 5.00%-5.25%; similarly priced in for that now are the October FedFundsFutures.
At present all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is quite light ahead of a bevy of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, namely September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus July’s Business Inventories. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve: the Bond better than +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.12 points “high”, Gold +112 points “high”, Oil -5.11 points “low” and the Spoo +200 points “high”. The best current directional correlation amongst those five is positive between the Euro and Gold. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from October into that for November. And the FOMC begins its two-day meeting.
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all begin the week at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update highlight’s the yellow metal’s fresh All-Time High and the comparably firmness of moneyflow into the Gold’s futures contracts year-to-date; wariness however is cited as the a dearth of trading volume leading to these most recent highs per the Market Profile; the Update also reiterates our sense that the FOMC on Wednesday shall vote for just a -25bp (not -50bp) FedFunds rate reduction, especially given the upticks in August’s inflation measures. The Spoo’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for December. And the Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.
Gold both yesterday and today has recorded its first All-Time Highs since last so doing on 20 August (then 2570), the newest high now 2599. Gold at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as is the Bond and Swiss Franc; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Values (in real-time) Gold is +102 points above its smooth valuation line; more of course in tomorrow’s 774th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500’s four-day rally (which would start toward a fifth day given at present the Spoo’s price vis-à-vis fair value) has pushed the “live” P/E up to a futs-adj’d reading of 41.7x. The Econ Baro concludes its week with September’s UofM Sentiment Survey along with August’s Ex/Im Prices.
Gold, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (as anticipated in Tuesday’s note) confirmed dropping below their 0% axis, the linreg having rotated from positive to negative; similar is the case for the Euro, whereas that for Oil has been negative for some seven weeks. Looking at Market Profiles, the current prices of the Bond, Gold and Silver are all very near their most commonly traded levels of the past fortnight. And for the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include August’s wholesale inflation via the PPI, plus the month’s Treasury Deficit.