Some five hours following release of The Gold Update came the States’ sortie over IRN; however, to look this morning at the BEGOS Markets, they appear as a fairly normal start to the week, save for volatility being moderate-to-robust; Oil is the only component at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, currently +1.4%; early on, ’twas up as much as +5.9%. Gold presently is -0.4%, The Gold Update suggesting the weekly Short trend becoming “elongated”, notably with the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) rolling over to the downside. And the Spoo is -0.2%. The deteriorating Econ Baro has 13 metrics scheduled for this week, commencing with May’s Existing Home Sales.
The two-day session continues, at present finding the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above their Neutral Zones and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate below same; volatility (as is typical in accounting for two days) is mostly robust. The Spoo yesterday traded below its “low if a down day” (5979), price having since rebounded nearly all the way back up. As anticipated, Copper is weaking as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) drop further still; too, those for both Silver and Gold are curling over to the downside: more on it all in tomorrow’s 814th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s recent strength given the Mid-East strife finds price (in real-time) +12.30 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). And the best correlation currently amongst our five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold, albeit the latter has been coming off a bit. The Econ Baro finishes its week with June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. given the Baro, “lagging”) Indicators.
Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement on Friday. At present, we’ve the the two EuroCurrencies, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; volatility thus far is moderate, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer being Gold at 71%; of note, the yellow metal’s weekly Parabolic trend still is Short and would end the week as such, barring a rally from here (3366) of some +114 points (3480 being the flip-to-Long price) by Friday. As for Copper, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) fallout continues without price (as yet) having materially let go to the downside; however today, Copper has marginally slipped below its most dominant volume price supporter (see Market Profiles) at 4.815. The various trading halts for the holiday commence at 17:00 GMT.
At present we’ve the Euro, Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point being 50% for both Gold and Copper. Specific to the red metal, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue their fall as the consistency of price’s uptrend breaks down. Looking at Market Magnets, save for Oil (which yesterday settled 8.73 points above its Magnet) the balance of the BEGOS Bunch are basically at their respective Magnet levels. Due to tomorrow’s StateSide holiday, the Econ Baro today (rather than Thursday) receives the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims; due too are May’s Housing Starts/Permits. And late in today’s session comes the FOMC’s “no change” Policy Statement, although the plunging Econ Baro and benign (by May) inflation ought be substance for an eventual FedFunds rate cut.
As internally texted last evening, the markets appear to have “priced-in” the Mid-East conflict and now are “on hold” ahead of the Fed on Wednesday: at present, seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today (Silver being just a tad above same), and session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, although the consistency of that for Copper is notably weakening. Oil, which as it did yesterday spiked up and then retreated, still finds by Market Values current price (70.46) +9.65 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; too, the Spoo is at present +151 points “high” by the like measure. ‘Tis quite the cavalcade of incoming metrics due today for the Econ Baro, including June’s NAHB Housing Index, May’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business Inventories.
Despite Mid-East turmoil, the BEGOS Markets by change appear rather disinterested. Both the Bond and Gold are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility however is moderate-to-robust, primarily as Oil spiked higher at the open to 75.50 but since retreated to now 71.78. The Gold Update acknowledges the weekly parabolic Short trend as having survived another week even as price has been rising throughout: the hurdle for the trend to flip to Long in the new week is 3480, the high today already 3476 before price having since pulled back to now 3436. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from June into September with +54 points of fresh premium; (as noted on Friday, Oil’s cac volume is moving from July into August). And 14 metrics come due for the Econ Baro this week, including for today June’s NY State Empire Index.
The overnight Mid-East offensive has made robust the volatility of the BEGOS Markets: notable movers are Oil having traced 443% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo 156%, the Euro 113% and Gold 109%. Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, Gold and Oil, whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Gold is getting the geo-political bid (sans Silver) in having traded to as high as 3467, which is not enough to flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 3487 to trade today); more of course in tomorrow’s 813th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in the new week may move below their key +80% axis which would point to lower price levels near-term; the Dollar is firming today (+0.4%) even as Gold is up (+1.1%). The EuroCurrencies’ cac volumes are rolling from June into those for September; watch same for Oil from July into August toward Monday. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with UofM’s Sentiment Survey for June.
Presently, the Euro and Swiss Franc are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive 21-day linreg, which reflects the downturn in the Dollar Index from 100.840 a month ago to now 98.360. However, going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time, we’ve the Bond -2^05 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; for the other primary components, the Euro shows as essentially in synch with such valuation, Gold as +50 points “high”, Oil as +5.99 points “high” and the Spoo as +185 points “high”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include wholesale inflation per May’s PPI.
All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within their respective Neutral Zones for today and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis the current leaders are the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve (yet again) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euros 2hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD. By Market Trends, in real-time the “Baby Blues” for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are kinking lower for the first time in some three weeks, an early indication that their recent rallies are running out of puff; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have stalled their descent, but have not reversed back upward. The Econ Baro looks to May’s retail inflation via the CPI; and late in the session come’s the month’s Treasury Budget.
Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate, following a fairly narrow day yesterday; indeed by Market Ranges, all eight BEGOS components have seen plunging EDTRs over the last month. At Market Trends, only the Bond is in negative linreg, however ’tis rotating toward positive; and in real-time, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising across the board including ~barely~ for the Spoo, the latter’s having been in descent for some three weeks without price (as yet) succumbing per se. Regardless, the S&P 500 continues its significant overvaluation, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E currently 47.0x and yield a wee 1.282% vs. 4.240% annualized for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of inflation data into the balance of the week.
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights Silver’s +9.4% net gain for last week, whereas that for Gold was just +0.5%; and yet with the Gold/Silver ratio now 91.9x, relative to the yellow metal, the white metal nonetheless remains cheap given the century-to-date average ratio of 69.1x. Per Market Values, Gold is essentially on its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is +258 points above same; and yes, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are lower yet again without price having materially fallen, albeit such leading indicator suggests the selling is coming. For the Econ Baro — the negative divergence of which from the S&P 500 is stunning — the week begins with April’s Wholesale Inventories.
Into week’s end finds Silver — having yesterday made a 13-year high — at present above its Neutral Zone for today as is the Spoo, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. And yes, despite the Spoo being higher, its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) are lower for an 11th consecutive session; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +252 points “high” over it smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is “textbook overbought” with a P/E (“live” 46.3x) basically double the historical multiple. By Market Profiles, overhead Spoo resistance shows in the 5978-5982 zone, and underlying support from 5923 to 5915. The Econ Baro awaits the data for May’s Payrolls, plus late in the session comes April’s Consumer Credit. Obviously we’ll salute Sister Silver in tomorrow’s 812th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
As was the case at this point yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is very light. The fallout continues in the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency such that we still anticipate (as first mentioned back on 26 May) a near-term move down into the lower 5700s/5600s, whereas presently price is 5974 and is in real-time by Market Values +291 points above the smooth valuation line. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; the latter remains in its weekly parabolic Short trend even as price has been quite resilient throughout the past three weeks. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include April’s Trade Deficit and the revisions to Q1’s Prod/CapUtil.
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones and volatility is light. In assessing the best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Euro’s 1hr MACD, and the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis the leaders are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and that for 1hr, plus Gold’s 1hr MACD and 4hr Parabolics. As regularly noted of late, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall (see Market Trends) with price yet to cave. And for the BEGOS bunch at large, all — save for the Bond — are in linreg uptrends, albeit weakening as just cited for the Spoo as well as for Oil. The Econ Baro looks to May’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
Following a sharp up day for the Metals Triumvirate, all three elements are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is the Spoo; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are yet again further falling as the linreg consistency of the uptrend continues to weaken, whilst at Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is +298 points above its smooth valuation line; and by Market Profiles, the most dominantly-traded price of the past fortnight is 5915; the “live” P/E for the S&P 500 itself is 47.0x. The Econ Baro is basically at its lowest level since 22 August, and due today are April’s Factory Orders.
The sole BEGOS Market at present within today’s Neutral Zone is the Bond; below same is the Spoo and the balance of the bunch are above same; session volatility is moderate, and Copper notably already has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update sees price as having been more in a stall than a fall, albeit the weekly parabolic Short trend is entering its fourth week. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency continue to drop, whilst those for the Bond on Friday confirmed moving up above their -80%, suggesting further near-term recovery for price combined with some yield softening. The Econ Baro beings a fairly busy week with May’s ISM(Mfg) Index and April’s Construction Spending.
The Euro, Gold and Silver are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold — barring turning ’round into an up day — is en route to recording a fourth down week in the last six, albeit price hasn’t (yet?) materially succumbed to the recently new weekly parabolic Short trend; more of course in tomorrow’s 811th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a “failure day” for the Spoo, the entirety of its intra-day +82 gain being hoovered away; still, the S&P MoneyFlow has been robust across all three of our timeframes (see S&P 500/Moneyflow), and technically, the Spoo’s daily parabolics just flipped from Short-to-Long at today’s open; either way, the overvaluation of the S&P remains critical. The Econ Baro wraps the week, indeed the month, with May’s Chi PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, plus April’s Personal Income/Spending and (the BIG event) “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data. “Sell in May and go away”? On verra…
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo notably having already traced 103% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is now +449 points above its smooth valuation line and the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P 500 is 47.1x; by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have yet again slipped in spite of this up session. Looking at correlations for the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; too of note is the negative correlation between Gold and the Spoo. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q1 GDP.
Both the Euro and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold is picking up +27 points of fresh premium as the cac volume rolls from June into that for August; too, the Bond’s cac volume is moving from June into September. Despite yesterday’s strength in the Spoo (+2.2%), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are lower still today in real-time, again suggesting a return (as previously noted) into the low 5700s/5600s, (barring the Blues getting a grip). Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our current leaders for pure swing consistency are Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 15mn EMA, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr EMA; on a 24-test basis, we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, the Euro’s 30mn MACD and Gold’s 4hr Parabolics along with its 30mn MACD. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And late in the session come the FOMC minutes from the 06/07 May meeting.
The two-day GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets’ session continues, now finding the Bond, Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold and Copper; session volatility is firmly moderate, the Bond notably having traced 119% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, three are sporting positive linregs: Silver, Oil and the Spoo; however with respect to the latter, as noted yesterday the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have fallen below their +80% axis, despite the current session’s up strength. Per the Spoo’s 10-day Market Profile, the overheard dominant volume resistors (price currently 5883) are 5908, 5938, and 5959. And by Market Rhythms, for the Spoo’s pure swing consistency, its current best study is the 12hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence and April’s Durable Orders.
The StateSide holiday elicits a two-day session (with Tuesday settle) for the GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets. Thus far we’ve both the Bond and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both the Euro and Spoo; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the very firm week (+4.8%) for the yellow metal, however reminds that the weekly parabolic trend is Short. The Spoo is off to a robust start for this week (at present +1.2%); yet as suggested in Friday’s comment, by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency have now (provisionally in real-time) fallen below the key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels near-term, perhaps into the lower 5700s/5600s by price structure; indeed the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +377 points above its smooth valuation line. 11 incoming metrics are due for the Econ Baro as the week unfolds, notably April’s “Fed-favoured” PCE come Friday.
At present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, while below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold — currently in the first week of its fresh parabolic Short trend — had seen its daily parabolics flip to Short effective 01 May: yesterday that study reversed to Long; obviously the broader measure (weekly) carries more price swing import, and we’ll of course further assess the situation in tomorrow’s 810th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo’s daily MACD appears poised to make a negative crossover into early next week; (note the five-hour Spoo trading halt during Monday’s StateSide observance of Memorial Day); too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are curling over such that a breach of the +80% axis looks to occur early in the new week. And the Econ Baro wraps its own week today with April’s New Home Sales.
Both Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. Topping Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency we’ve (on a 10-test basis) both the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr Price Oscillator and 1hr EMA (the Yen now higher for an eighth consecutive day), along with Gold’s 6hr MACD and the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics (which flipped to Short yesterday at 12:00 CET; too in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +387 points above its smooth valuation line); plus (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, Copper’s 4hr Parabolics along with Gold’s 4hr Parabolics, and the Bond’s 1hr Price Oscillator. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are Existing Home Sales for April.
Gold, despite its now being in a weekly parabolic Short trend, nonetheless is having a very firm week thus far, currently +108 points from last Friday’s settle; the yellow metal for today is at present above its Neutral Zone, as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil; below same are both the Bond and Spoo. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, Oil itself having already traded 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The non-BEGOS Yen is rising for a seventh consecutive day, a streak which has occurred but once this decade-to-date, (following which it swiftly took a -3% tumble in early December 2022). Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best current correlation is positive between the Euro and Gold. And the quiet week continues for the Econ Baro, again with no metrics due today.
The “life-cycle” of the Moody’s StateSide debt downgrade was short-lived, the S&P 500 concluding yesterday in the black: the Index is now 16 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” and the Spoo in real-time +497 points above its smooth valuation line, even as at present the Spoo along with Gold and Copper are below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Trends, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have provisionally curled up above their -80% axis; confirmation by settle would be indicative of still higher Euro levels near-term, although structurally there does not appear to be that much room to move materially up: currently 1.1270, there is Market Profile resistance in the 1.1370 to 1.1390 zone. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro, which nonetheless has taken a bit of a hit of late.
The Bond, Oil and Spoo are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver; BEGOS Market’s volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Long-to-Short, with 2973-2844 as a support zone reasonably to be tested. The “late to the party” Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit is nonetheless getting the safe havens the bid to begin the week; regardless, the Dollar Index (albeit -0.5% today) still hovers above the 100 handle. Support for the Spoo by its 10-day Market Profile initially shows at 5909, followed by 5864. And ’tis a very quiet week for the Econ Baro with just four metrics due, beginning today with April’s Leading (i.e. “lagging) Indicators, which by the “leading” Baro we already “know” ought be negative.
Into week’s end we’ve at present the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Of note by Market Ranges, Gold’s EDTR is 89 points (vs. 35 a year ago) whilst that for Silver is 0.88 points (not that far from 0.75 points a year ago); the Gold/Silver ratio is 99.0x (vs. the century-to-date average of 69.0x); more on it all in tomorrow’s 809th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Meanwhile for the S&P 500, its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 45.8x and the yield 1.313% vs. the U.S. T-Bill’s risk-free annualized yield of 4.258%. The Econ Baro looks to these incoming metrics in concluding the week: April’s Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices, along with May’s UofM Sentiment Survey. Today wraps up Q1 Earnings Season for 2025, which for year-over-year quarterly improvement specific to S&P 500 constituents has essentially been average.
Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. Gold confirmed a negative crossing of its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): this is of course a Short signal, albeit as we regularly quip “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”; still, a run from here (3137) down to 3000 wouldn’t seen untoward, price having established a plateau there back in February. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from June into that for July. And the Econ Baro is poised to take in 11 metrics today, amongst which are May’s NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, along with April’s Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, plus March’s Business Inventories.
Both Gold and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is quite light. Gold has nearly closed the long-running deviation above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values): in real-time, price is now just +10 points over the line, after having been as much (on a closing basis) as +440 points “high” back on 21 April; (and as previously noted, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend provisionally has flipped from Long-to-Short). Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is currently the 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis the 4hr parabolics. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a barrage featuring 16 incoming metrics from tomorrow into Friday; of note per yesterday’s CPI data, inflation’s pace increased during April.
As posted yesterday on ‘X’, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long-to-Short; barring Gold improbably making an All-Time High this week (above 3510), the new Short trend shall confirm upon Friday’s settle. At present, both Gold and Silver, along with the Euro and Swiss Franc are above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is light. Yesterday’s gap-up open for the S&P 500 was by points the largest in its 68-year history; the Index through the past 11 days is “textbook overbought” and the Spoo (in real-time) is +384 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the Index is 44.3x. The Econ Baro looks to the first report of April’s inflation via the CPI.
Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present within its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update gives evidence to the yellow metal’s great rally potentially having run out of puff: purported progress of tariff resolution issues is drawing money from the safe havens into equities and the Dollar. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, the Spoo as adjusted for fair value places the Index +1.5%, (and the “live” P/E at 43.6x); the Spoo in real-time is +297 points above its smooth valuation line, see Market Values). The Econ Baro begins it busy week of 19 incoming metrics with April’s Treasury Budget due late in the session. And this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season.
Into week’s end we’ve at present Gold above its Neutral Zone for today and Copper below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. At Market Trends, our “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are falling for all eight BEGOS components, albeit the only two currently with actual declining trends are the Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values for the five primary entities in real-time time: the Bond is 2^09 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro just 0.001 points “high”, Gold +155 points “high”, Oil -4.77 points “low” and the Spoo +220 points “high”. The S&P 500 is now textbook overbought through the past nine trading days. With one week still to run for Q1 Earnings Season, 427 S&P 500 constituents have reported of which 66% (282) have beaten their EPS of their like quarter a year ago. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro, it having concluded its week yesterday. Tomorrow brings our 808th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Amongst correlations of the five primary BEGOS components, that for Gold is notably positive with the Euro, however negatively so with the Spoo. Oil’s 12hr MACD embarked on a flip from Short-to-Long effective yesterday at12:00 (CET): year-to-date this has been a very respectable Market Rhythm, and in real-time by Market Values, Oil is -6.92 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro rounds out its week today, incoming metrics including March’s Wholesale Inventories and Q1’s initial read of Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
The Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets to this hour continues as moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms at those currently displaying the best pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics as well as its 4hr Moneyflow, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis again the same for the Yen, along with Gold’s 2hr Parabolics. At Market Magnets, both the Euro and Silver yesterday confirmed positive crossings of price above Magnet, suggestive of higher levels near-term. Late in the session, the Econ Baro looks to March’s Consumer Credit, preceded an hour earlier by the week’s highlight of the FOMC’s Policy Statement, the consensus for which is no change in the Bank’s Funds rate.
Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present below their Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is yet again moderate to this point of the session. Gold has gained some +130 points since our querying (at 3247) about its great run being done: presently 3371, price is “only” -139 points below the 3510 All-Time High; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most dominant volume support price is 3324; and the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is its 6hr MACD, in which hindsight vacuum $57k/cac has been generated since late February, and which swung from Short to Long yesterday at 12:00 (CET). The Econ Baro awaits March’s Trade Deficit.
The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. The Gold Update queries as to the yellow metal’s great run being done (for now): price is within a day’s range of flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short (effective 3209); Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 83 points.; and by Market Values (in real-time) Gold remains +164 points above its smooth valuation line. Q4 Earnings Season still has some two weeks to run: with 337 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 220 have bettered their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; such 65% rate of improvement is a bit below the typical 66% pace. The Econ Baro begins a light week with April’s ISM(Apr) Index. And Wednesday brings the FOMC’s next policy statement for which consensus sees no change in.
Save for the Bond which at present is inside its Neutral Zone for today, the seven other BEGOS Markets are above same; session volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as essentially on its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.0393 points “high”, Gold as +180 points “high”, Oil as -6.56 points “low” and the Spoo as +160 points “high”. The S&P 500 itself week-to-date remains “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” p/e is 43.0x; on the S&P’s monthly chart, its MACD confirmed a negative crossing as May got underway: the last such negative crossover occurred in April 2022 leading to a more than -1,000 points (-14.5%) decline into November. ‘Tis April’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro, along with March’s Factory Orders.
The Euro, Gold and Silver are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Copper, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate. Indeed, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of trend consistency confirmed crossing below the +80%; we’re anticipating the low 1.12s from here, perhaps even the upper 1.11s as the Dollar is showing a bit of resilience with a positive MACD swing on the Buck’s daily chart. Gold continues to work toward closing the gap down to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), price in real-time however still +167 points “high”. For correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the current best is positive between Gold and the Euro. And included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s ISM(Mfg) Index and March’s Construction Spending.
The year’s first quadrimester concludes with significant input for the Econ Baro: nine metrics come due, amongst which are April’s ADP Employment data and the Chi PMI, March’s “Fed-favoured” PCE report along with Personal Income/Spending and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q1’s GDP along with the Employment Cost Index. Ahead of it all at present we’ve Copper as the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone, and session volatility is very light, again within the context of EDTRs (see Market Ranges) having widened considerably this month. At Market Trends, the Euro’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in real-time moving below their key +80% axis such that we look for lower prices near-term; too by Market Values, the Euro is (in real-time) +0.046 points above its smooth valuation line; a run from here in the 1.14s down into the 1.12s wouldn’t be untoward over the ensuing days/week or two.
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The S&P 500 (5529) has returned to being “textbook overbought” for the first time since 20 February (then 6118); indeed the Spoo — which had been below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for some two months — has finally (in real-time) reverted back up to it such that still higher price levels ought be expected; however, the S&P’s “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is at this moment an ever so expensive 42.5x, and the yield a wee 1.394% vs. the 3-month US T-Bill’s 4.193% annualized. Meanwhile Gold, by its smooth valuation line remains excessively “high”, in real-time +278 points above said line. The Econ Baro gets its week going today with April’s Consumer Confidence.
At present, the Swiss Franc plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to begin the week is mostly light. The Gold Update continues to cite price’s near-term over-valuation; however with Gold down today, by Market Values, price — which on a closing basis had been as much as +440 “high” above its smooth valuation line — is now (in real-time) +262 points “high” above completing reversion to said “mean”; by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant resistor is 3343, the like supporter being 3238; and Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is now 92 points. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro: whilst nothing is due for today, the rest of the week has 18 incoming scheduled metrics, including on Wednesday the “Fed-favoured” PCE Index for March’s inflation.
The elements of the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Our current leaders of Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are on a 10-test basis: the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Parabolics along with the 30mn Moneyflow, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis ’tis same for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Gold — which by Market Values remains severely near-term overbought — is returning down into the 3200s: more on that in tomorrow’s 806th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from May into that for July. The Econ Baro looks to April’s UofM Sentiment revision. And Q1 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 — which had a robust start — is fading as more companies report, 150 having thus far so done.
Gold high-to-low this week has thus far dropped -239 points (-6.8%), albeit in real-time (now at 3328) ’tis still priced +307 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As for the BEGOS Markets at large, we’ve at present Gold along with the Euro and Swiss Franc above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility is light in the context of the extremely expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges): indeed that today for Gold is 90 points and for the Spoo 212 points. Amongst correlations for the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Euro and Spoo, (the hedge thus being both Long or both Short). Yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500 was sufficient to see the “live” P/E settle all the way back up at 40.0x; futs-adj’d in real-time ’tis 39.9x. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include March’s Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales.
Gold, after having made another All-Time High yesterday at 3510, has since dropped as much as -194 points in essentially 24 hours to 3316; current price is 3333, which is below today’s Neutral Zone as are both the Euro and Swiss Franc; above same are the Bond, Copper, Oil and Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time we’ve: the Bond as nearly -3 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0549 points “high”, Gold +320 points “high”, Oil -2.59 points “low” and the Spoo -237 points “low”. By Market Rhythms, the Euro appears poised for a negative 12hr MACD crossover come 12:00 CET/10:00 GMT: follow-through of the prior eight swings has been at minimum 0.012 points (i.e. $1,500/cac). The Econ Baro looks to March’s New Home Sales. And late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
Another day, another century mark for Gold, price having eclipsed the 3500 level: by Market Values, the yellow metal in real-time is +501 points above its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Copper, too is above today’s Neutral Zone, whereas the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having already traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver continues not to participate in Gold’s rally, the “live” Gold/Silver ratio now 106.8x. Yesterday’s -2.4% drop in the S&P 500 may be mollified by the MoneyFlow being more indicative of a -1.5% drop; the Spoo at present is -453 points below its smooth BEGOS valuation line. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And Q1 Earnings Season thus for for the S&P shows 42 constituents having reported, of which 71% have bettered their like quarter of a year ago; the S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.1x.
EuroSide the long weekend continues, however StateSide ’tis back to business as usual with the BEGOS Markets on the move: at present above today’s Neutral Zones are the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate whilst below same are both the Bond and Spoo; session volatility is firmly moderate. Indeed Gold is soaring this morning, currently +61 points at 3402, even as The Gold Update continues to cite the near-term technically overbought state of the yellow metal; in real-time, price is now +408 points above its smooth valuation line; by Market Profiles, Gold’s “nearby” volume supports are 3344, 3326, and then nothing of substance until 3237. Silver is not participating to Gold’s upside extent, the Gold/Silver ratio now 103.7x. ‘Tis a fairly light week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with March’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
The BEGOS Markets and many global exchanges are closed as the long weekend begins. Just a few notes: the S&P 500 now at 5283 is now -14.1% below its all-time high of 6147, and is “textbook oversold” through the past 11 trading days; the P/E however remains perilously high at 39.2x, even as Q1 Earnings Season is running at an above-average pace for year-over-year improvement; still, the Spoo settled its week -371 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). On the other hand, Gold — whist still fundamentally undervalued — is +352 points above its smooth valuation line and is “textbook overbought” these past five sessions. More tomorrow in our 805th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. StateSide bourses resume trading on Monday, however those for Europe not until Tuesday. Bonne Fête de Pâques à Tous!
This week’s final trading day finds at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper below the day’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has recorded yet another All-Time High, thus far today reaching up to 3372: price in real-time is currently +356 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best at present is positive between Oil and the Spoo, (the hedge notion thus being Long one and Short the other one). The Euro by its Market Profile is on its second most heavily-traded apex of the past fortnight at 1.1400, (the most heavily-traded being 1.1080). And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including April’s Philly Fed Index and March’ Housing Starts/Permits.
Gold is significantly higher this morning in having made another All-Time High at 3312: price is +1.8% whereas that for Silver is but +0.7%, Copper weighing there -1.2%. Only the Bond and Silver are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; above same are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. By Market Rhythms, our two best on a 24-test basis currently are (per usual) the non-BEGOS Yen’s both daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics; on the 10-test basis, the present best are the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro today we’ve April’s NAHB Housing Index, plus March’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with February’s Business Inventories.
Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light to this time, although again, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) remain extremely wide: for example, that for the Spoo today is 245 points, (and yes, brokers have been broadcasting full initial margin requirements during recent sessions). Looking at Market Trends, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold are in ascent, the other five BEGOS components in descent. The Spoo by Market Values is -295 points “low” vis-à-a its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is for eight consecutive sessions “textbook oversold”, albeit fundamentally the Index continues as vastly overvalued, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 39.8x at this instant; its yield is 1.421% vs. 4.195% annualized on the 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro awaits April’s NY State Empire Index, plus March’s Ex/Im Prices.