On the heels of the current edition of the Gold Update entitled “Yes, Gold REALLY Is Getting Ahead of Itself”, the precious metals are taking a bit of a pounding this morning: with all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate presently below today’s Neutral Zones, Silver — which began the session north of 80 in trading to a record high of 82.67, is now 75.52 , -5.2% having traded 266% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), and Gold is 4491 with a 165% EDTR tracing. The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly robust as skewed by the metals; notably quiet is the Spoo with just a 27% EDTR tracing. By Market Values (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is -1^27 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.012 points “high”, Gold +314 points “high” in spite of today’s selling, Oil -2.20 points “low”, and the Spoo +135 points “high”. Due for the Econ Baro is November’s Pending Home Sales.
Today’s full session for the BEGOS Markets presently finds the Bond and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones, whilst above same are all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, both Gold and Silver having again recorded new highs at 4562 and 75.50. Session volatility is moderate, noting therein that Silver has traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market ranges). Tomorrow’s 841st consecutive Saturday Edition shall give an estimate of how much the Money Supply (“M2”) need increase to catch up in matching these otherwise overvalued levels of the precious metals. Meanwhile, Gold by its BEGOS Market Value is (in real-time) +371 points above its smooth valuation line; the Spoo is currently +147 points above same. Nearby volume-dominant Market Profile support for Gold is 4518 whilst for the Spoo ’tis 6960. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro, (albeit 36 metrics remaining missing).
We’ve furtherance of record highs this morning for the precious metals, Gold having tapped 4555 and Silver 72.75. At present above today’s Neutral Zones are both Silver and Copper; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility for the abbreviated session is pushing toward moderate; (session closures range today from 18:00 GMT for stocks to 18:15 GMT and 18:45 GMT for the various BEGOS components). The S&P 500 yesterday settled at an all-time high (6910), albeit did not achieve its record intra-day high (6920 on 29 October); by Fair Value (+50 points) to the futures, the S&P at this instant would open lower by -6 points. And per Market Values, the Spoo in real-time is +134 points above its smooth valuation line; Gold is +364 points above same as price continues to break further above Fair Value (3896). Due for the Econ Baro are last week’s Initial Jobless Claims. Back on Friday for a full session, and thus a most Merry Christmas to one and all!
Gold has cleared the 4500 handle in trading thus far to as high as 4531, whilst Silver has cleared its 70 handle in thus far reaching up to 70.16: whilst we welcome such lofty prices, a word to the wise is sufficient: Gold is at present +16% above Fair Value and Silver +24% above same. Too, the yellow metal is currently above today’s Neutral Zone, as are the Bond and Swiss Franc, a phenomena not unusual as we glide toward year-end. Session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate. Copper’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) continue to inch below the key +80%, albeit price has yet to respond in kind. They may be quite an array of data arriving today for the Econ Baro: problematic thereto is much conflict between our reporting sources as to what shall or shall not be issued, either timely or in arrears; we’ll have it all updated later in the session; also there is “talk” of another StateSide “shutdown” come late January.
The current edition of The Gold Update entitled “Merry Metals!” is being well-vindicated this morning with record highs for both Gold (4453) and Silver (69.53); both are presently above today’s Neutral Zones as are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; below same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate, duly noting that Gold has traced 130% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Too, The Gold Update graphically summarizes the precious metals’ best pure swing Market Rhythms as currently Gold’s 12-hour Parabolics and Silver’s six-hour Moneyflow. The Spoo has regained the 6900s: currently 6910, the all-time high is 6975 (12 December); the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 56.0x; the amount of money to move the S&P one point is the thinnest ’tis been since 15 October, (i.e. mind the froth). Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
Gold yesterday by its “continuous contract” reached another All-Time High at 4410; (the “front month” currently is February, which itself had reached 4433 on 20 October but with a lot of forward “premium” at that time when ’twas not yet the “front month”). Either way, more on having achieved 4410 in tomorrow’s 840th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. For the present, with session volatility for the BEGOS Markets moving toward moderate, we’ve the Bond and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Silver and Copper. Of note, Copper’s “Baby Blues” for linreg consistency (see Market Trends) yesterday dropped below their key+80% axis indicative of lower prices near-term; Copper’s best Market Rhythm of late is its daily MACD. The Econ Baro looks to December’s revision to the UofM Sentiment Survey and November’s Existing Home Sales; due too are that month’s Personal Income/Spending and “fed-favoured” Core PCE Index: instead however may come the still unreported data for October, given the “shutdown”.
Another record high for Silver yesterday in trading up to 67.18 at which level year-to-date the white metal was up +129%; Silver currently is 66.61 and at present inside her Neutral Zone for today, as are all the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil’s being below same; session volatility is light. The NASDAQ 100 finished yesterday on a “Hobson Close” in settling on the low of the session, which by market lore is indicative of an up opening; indeed the Spoo is presently positioned for an opening S&P 500 gain of +22 points, placing the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at 54.2x. Too, the Spoo yesterday settled having crossed below its BEGOS Market Value, typically indicative of still lower prices near-term; the Spoo’s linreg trend remains up, but ’tis weakening (see Market Trends). Amongst the metrics expected today for the Econ Baro are December’s Philly Fed Index and November’s CPI; the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators are “scheduled” but are not likely to be reported as the wake of the “shutdown” keeps the full view of the economy somewhat in question.
We’ve record highs for Silver this morning, up to as much as 66.65; and even as the Dollar Index is up a firm +0.5%, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is Oil; below same are the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate-to-robust, Silver having thus far traced 119% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is -2^08 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.013 points “high”, Gold +250 points “high”, Oil -3.72 points “low” and the Spoo +62 points “high”. Incoming data for the Econ Baro remains sporadic as “scheduled” reports in arrears are not necessarily being released; there are three metrics “due” for today (including November’s Retail Sales and October’s Business Inventories), but already they are indicated as likely not to arrive; either way, data that is being released has continued to move the Baro lower month-to-date.
Presently we’ve the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility thus far again is moderate. Save for Silver and Copper, EDTRs (see Market Ranges) of late have been narrowing. And by Market Trends, save for the Bond and Oil, the six other BEGOS components are in 21-day linreg uptrends. The Spoo’s moving from its December cac into that for March has added +59 points of premium to price; the March Spoo yesterday meekly moved up through significant Market Profile resistance before being swiftly sold back down; currently 6839, such resistance is 6908 up to 6926; the Spoo’s EDTR is 78 points. There are 11 metrics “scheduled” today for the Econ Baro, some in arrears and some timely; they notably include: November’s Payrolls data (to fold in as able some of that for October which was not reported), IndProd/CapUtil, October’s Retail Sales, plus September’s Housing Starts/Permits and Business Inventories.
The final full trading week of the year begins, finding at present the Bond and Metals Triumvirate above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update celebrates Silver having surpassed 60, and the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from yet another “short-lived” Short stint (just 3 weeks) to Long; presently 4377, Gold is only -21 points below its record 4398 high; by their Market Profiles, Gold’s most volume-dominant support is 4237 and for Silver (currently 63.43) ’tis 58.85. Oil’s cac volume is moving from January into that for February, and that for the Spoo from December into March. Purportedly “scheduled” this week for the Econ Baro are 26 metrics, some delayed, some current: for today we await December’s NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Housing Index.
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. Silver yesterday traded up to a record high of 64.72, however by Fair Value, the white metal has become quite overvalued: more on that in tomorrow’s 839th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve currently no notable correlations. The Dollar Index yesterday traded down to its lowest level (98.135) since 24 October. The S&P 500 yesterday reached its highest level (6903) since the all-time high of 6920 on 29 October. Volume for the currencies (Euro, Swiss Franc and the non-BEGOS Yen) is moving from their respective December cacs into those for March. And nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro, albeit some four dozen metrics remain missing per the six-week Oct-Nov StateSide “shutdown”.
The Bond is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. As anticipated, the FOMC voted with dissent to nonetheless cut the FedFunds rate -25 bps to the 3.50%-3.75% target range: the S&P 500 responded in moving to its highest level (6901) since 29 October (wherein the all-time high of 6920 still stands); however, overnight selling has pushed the Spoo (6840) lower towards its BEGOS Market Value (6801), the futs-adj’d “live” P/E at 57.7x. Silver has recorded another record high this morning at 63.25, however has since slipped back into today’s Neutral Zone. And incoming metrics “scheduled” in arrears today for the Econ Baro are both September’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories.
Silver yesterday topped 60.00 for the first time and thus far today has traded to as high as 62.14, the Gold/Silver ratio having fully reverted to its century-to-date evolving mean of 69.4x, the ratio currently 68.3x; the white metal is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, as is Copper; the rest of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Silver’s best Market Rhythm is currently (if seeking a targeted outcome of 0.52 points) is the 12hr MACD, or on a pure swing basis the 6hr MACD; of note, Gold these last couple of weeks continues not to confirm Silver’s rally. What is “scheduled” for the Econ Baro versus that which is actually released of late is patchy at best: expected for today is November’s Treasury Budget, plus in arrears, Q3’s Employment Cost Index. Then come 19:00, look for the FOMC (not unanimously) to lower the FedFunds rate by -0.25% to the 3.50-3.75% target range.
Only Copper is at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; moreover, it already has traced 106% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); otherwise, BEGOS Market’s volatility is mostly light. By Market Rhythms, Copper’s best is its daily MACD. Too, ’tis unusual to see one market dominating our Top Three Rhythms for pure swing consistency, but on a 10-test basis, ’tis the Euro’s 15mn Parabolics, 1hr EMA, and 6hr MACD. Yesterday’s S&P 500’s MoneyFlow (+0.2%) was firmer than the Index itself (-0.3%); the Spoo’s trading range is narrowing: the EDTR just back on 25 November was 119 points; today ’tis 83 points. “Scheduled” today for the Econ Baro are the Q3 revisions to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the preliminary readings for which were not reported given the “shutdown”.
Presently, the Euro is the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to Silver having nearly reached the milestone of 60.00 (59.90 on Friday); too, we calculated a Fair Value for Silver at 56.05. Also therein, September’s inflation summary table is indicative of paces running above the Fed’s desired 2% target range such that they ought not cut the Funds rate come Wednesday, but likely shall so do given a weakening jobs market at least by ADP data; (recall the BLS was shutdown for six weeks). As the Spoo meanders higher this morning, the S&P 500 looks to start its week with a “live” P/E of 58.2x. For the five primary BEGOS components per their Market Values (in real-time): the Bond is -2^10 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro basically in sync nears its line, Gold +168 points above same, Oil in sync, and the Spoo +88 points over its line. Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
The EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate are all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is on balance moderate, Copper however having already traced 130% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo has thus far traded up to 6884, its highest level since 13 November; too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) have inched back above their 0% axis, the trend having rotated from negative to positive despite the “textbook overbought” condition of the S&P 500 itself; the Spoo settled last evening an excessive 126 points above its Market Magnet; currently 6882, the Spoo’s most volume-dominant supporter is 6863. Gold is completing its third week of the parabolic Short trend, the past two weeks of which have been up; more on that in tomorrow’s 838th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And scheduled for the Econ Baro are December’s UofM Sentiment Survey, October’s Consumer Credit, plus purportedly in arrears, September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.
The Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are all presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point of the session is light-to-moderate. Silver’s daily bars have the appearance of a near-term top being put in place despite yesterday’s all-time high of 59.66, (price now 57.99); Silver’s best swing Market Rhythm if seeking a profit target (0.84 points) is the 6hr Moneyflow, whereas on a pure swing basis ’tis the 4hr Parabolics. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has worked its way up technically to a moderately “textbook overbought” condition; more importantly, the fundamental reality of the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of now 58.7x is essentially off the end of the Bell Curve. Metrics scheduled today for the Econ Baro include October’s Trade Deficit and September’s Factory Orders.
Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil, whilst below same is Silver; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is pushing toward moderate. Yesterday for the Swiss Franc, price settled above the most volume-dominant Market Profile resistor, as well as pierced above its Market Magnet. Currently topping our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Swiss Franc’s 8hr MACD and for Silver both its 2hr MACD and 4hr Parabolics, plus (on a 24-test basis) the Euro’s 4hr MACD, Silver’s 2hr Parabolics, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr MACD. The Econ Baro looks to November’s ADP Employment data ISM(Svc) Index, and perhaps in “shutdown” arrears September’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil.
Silver, after achieving another all-time high yesterday at 59.44 — then year-to-date +103% — is at present below today’s Neutral Zone; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. The S&P 500’s mid-November correction of some -350 points and subsequent return back up was enough to unwind any textbook technical overbought/oversold conditions; however, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 56.1x remains our biggest overvaluation (understatement) concern. Specific to the Spoo by Market Trends, its linreg had rotated from positive to negative effective 17 November, but as the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are recovering, such trend looks to rotate back to positive in a day or two, barring substantive selling; for consistent swing trading, the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm of late has been the 30mn Price Oscillator. Nothing is scheduled today for the Econ Baro.
Both the Bond and Spoo are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate as December commences. The Gold Update celebrates Silver’s remarkable year, through Friday +94.9%, and even more so this morning, having hit another all-time high at 58.61. Silver’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency has been the 2hr MACD, or for targeted profit (0.84 points/cac) the 6hr Moneyflow; and Silver’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 2.13 points/day. Meanwhile Gold at 4275 is -123 points below its record high level of 4398 (20 October). For the Econ Baro we’ve November’s ISM(Mfg) Index plus (purportedly) September’s Construction Spending, one of 49 “missing” metrics from the StateSide “shutdown”.
Subject to the CME data outage from 02:45 GMT (03:45 CET): Silver is teasing another all-time high; by the March cac ‘twould be 55.06, the current price being 54.64; more tomorrow in the 837th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, currently finding both the Bond and Euro below their Neutral Zones whilst above same are Gold and Silver; session volatility (inclusive of yesterday) is now moderate. For the five primary BEGOS components per their Market Values in real-time: the Bond is +0^17 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro essentially on same, Gold is +157 points “high”, Oil -0.66 points “low” and the Spoo +60 points “high”. Albeit there remain many missing metrics due to the recent StateSide “shutdown”, the Econ Baro has returned to its highest level since last February, which if detected by the FOMC may see rates held steady rather than cut come the 10 December Policy Statement.
‘Tis a BEGOS Market’s two-day session for Friday settlement, with trading halts later today and early closures tomorrow. At present, we’ve Silver above its Neutral Zone and having traded as high as 54.43 as it nears its all-time high (basis March) of 55.06; below today’s Neutral Zone is Copper, and overall session volatility thus far is light. Looking at correlations within the five primary BEGOS components, our best currently is positive between Gold and Oil, both having been mildly down since late October, albeit by Market Trends (on a slightly shorter timeframe), Gold’s linreg is positively-sloped whereas that for Oil is negative. The Econ Baro is recording “delayed data” as it becomes available, however overall, many metrics remaining missing, and as the BLS stated last week, some reports simply shan’t ever be assembled; regardless, the tilt of the Baro for most of November has been up. A very Happy Thanksgiving to you StateSiders over there!
Both the Swiss Franc and Silver are presently above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 4hr MACD, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow; for the 24-test basis they are the Euro’s 15mn Parabolics, Silver’s 1hr MACD, and Copper’s daily Parabolics. Although yesterday’s S&P 500 change was +0.9%, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points was -0.5%: mind the MoneyFlow page. Due to the recent StateSide “shutdown”, there is conflict amongst reporting entities as to which Econ Metrics actually shall come through: likely for today we’ll at least receive November’s Chi PMI (an earlier date than usual given tomorrow’s holiday), plus purportedly from back in September both Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
Copper is at present above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Gold nicely commenced its new weekly parabolic Short trend by — as surmised in The Gold Update — firmly rising yesterday, (albeit that doesn’t preclude there not being lower levels in the offing); too, Gold’s cac volume today is rolling from December into that for February, inclusive of +37 points of fresh premium; rolling as well today is Silver’s cac volume from December into that for March, (and to follow today/tomorrow is same for the Bond). At Market Trends, six of eight linregs are negative, the only two positives being those for Gold and Silver. Scheduled for the Econ Baro are November’s Consumer Confidence, October’s Pending Home Sales, and in playing “catch-up”, September’s PPI and Retail Sales.
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update cites price’s weekly parabolic trend as having confirmed the anticipated flip from Long-to-Short, but in the context that Short trends within the past two years have had negligible negativity, and thus in hindsight have been buying opportunities. Q3 Earnings Season is complete with 71% of S&P 500 reporting constituents improving their quarterly year-over-year bottom lines, which favourably compares with typical improvement of 66%; still, the overall level of earnings is far too low to maintain the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P of 51.8x at this instant. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from December into that for March. And whilst no fresh metrics are scheduled for the Econ Baro, there may be some “catch-up” data on IndProd/CapUtil for September, which of course we’ll duly incorporate.
We’ve presently the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are Gold, Silver and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best correlation currently is negative between the Bond and the Spoo. The latter thus far today has traded to its lowest level (6539) since 08 September, the selling rather anticipated given the ongoing — indeed leading — plunge of the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). Yesterday saw a “data dump” from the Dept. of Labor for some seven Initial Jobless Claim reports as the Econ Baro continues to bring in metrics missing from the recent StateSide government “shutdown”; scheduled for today is November’s revised UofM Sentiment Survey. Tomorrow brings the 836th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And we’ve reached the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, for which the S&P 500 year-over-year has been well above its average improvement, but remains well below the foundation needed to support the hyper-high levels of the S&P.
The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as -1^08 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -0.009 points “low”, Gold as just -15 points “low”, Oil as only -0.37 points “low” and the Spoo as a scant -11 points low; however with respect to the latter, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 54.3x and the yield 1.171% vs. 3.772% annualized for the 3-month U.S. T-Bill. As to the Econ Baro, the BLS has announced there shan’t be a Payrolls report for October; however, that for September is to be released today, as is November’s Philly Fed Index, plus October’s Existing Home sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.
At present, Silver is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Looking at the Top Three Market Rhythms for pure swing constancy, we’ve (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s 12hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 30mn Price Oscillator and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Price Oscillator; too, (on a 24-test basis) we’ve Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, the Bond’s 15mn MACD, and the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Moneyflow. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are accelerating their drop, as also is the case for both Copper and Oil. The Econ Baro is sensitive to missing metrics finally coming to the fore, albeit rather sporadically; scheduled for today are October’s Housing Starts/Permits and August’s overdue Trade Deficit.
Gold — as we’ve been anticipating — has provisionally flipped its 17-week parabolic Long trend to Short; confirmation arrives at Friday’s settle, (barring price first making a record high above 4398); currently price is 3997 and presently below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are Silver and the Spoo; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. As noted yesterday, the Spoo’s linreg (see Market Trends) in real-time has rotated from positive to negative, suggestive of still lower S&P 500 levels; the Spoo’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency through yesterday is the 1hr Moneyflow; mind too the separately-calculated MoneyFlow for the Index itself on our S&P page. Due today for the Econ Baro are November’s NAHB Housing Index, along with October’s Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, (for which there is as yet no September data).
Silver and the Spoo are presently above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update points to Friday’s precious metals’ price slides as potentially leading to piercing Gold’s weekly parabolic Long trend as this week unfolds: the low thus far today is 4051 and the parabolic flip price for the week is 4004; Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 103 points. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are (in real-time) down to their 0% axis as the trend rotates from positive toward negative, barring price getting a firm rally in these next few days. Due for the Econ Baro is the NY State Empire Index for November; 54 metrics remain missing from the government “shutdown” and — even having ended — its spillover effect of ongoing unreported data. And this is the final week of Q3 Earnings Season.
The Spoo is presently below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; cac volume for Oil is rolling from December into that for January; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, with Oil exceptionally having already traced 128% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday, both the Bond and Spoo respectively fell below their most volume-dominant Market Profile support levels and crossed beneath their Market Magnets. Too yesterday, Silver traded to an all-time high at 54.42 and the Gold/Silver ratio looks to finish the week below 80x for the first weekly settle under that level since 12 July ’24: more on all that in tomorrow’s 835th consecutive Saturday Edition of The Gold Update. Due but not necessarily arriving today for the Econ Baro are October’s PPI, Retail sales, and September’s Business Inventories.
Similar to this past Monday, Gold — and especially Silver — recorded very firm trading sessions yesterday: so robust was Silver (+4.2%) that the Gold/Silver ratio was driven down to 78.9x, the lowest reading in better than a year (since 22 Oct ’24). However in a 180° turnabout, Oil — after having seen both its Market Value and Market Magnet measures turn bullish on Tuesday — whirled ‘right back down below both indicators, the -4.2% drop ranking sixth-worst year-to-date. Presently, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. StateSide, the government “shutdown” has concluded with 45 metrics missing for the Econ Baro, to the extent they eventually are updated; due as well for today are October’s CPI, Treasury Budget and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims, should bureaus be up and running in time to report these items.
Copper and the Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is thus far is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our Top Three on a 10-test basis are the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Moneyflow and Silver’s 6hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis the leaders are Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, The Euro’s 30mn Moneyflow and Oil’s 4hr Parabolics. Oil yesterday confirmed moves above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and Market Magnet; by Market Profiles, Oil’s notable volume-dominant supports are 60.60 and 60.10, however there is resistance at 61.00. ‘Tis again a day without scheduled metrics due for the Econ Baro, (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown” which may be finally resolved fairly quickly).
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light. Yesterday’s firm up moves for the precious metals from their basing processes were sufficient to now find their “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) having turned higher in real-time, albeit the actual linreg trends remain negative; nonetheless, on a points basis, yesterday was Gold’s second-best net gain (+116) for the year-to-date and for Silver (+2.18) third-best; by percentage, the day ranked sixth-best for Gold (+2.9%), and again third-best for Silver (+4.5%); by their Market Profiles, Gold (currently 4136) finds its nearest notable volume-dominant support at 4087, whilst for Silver (currently 50.50) ’tis 49.90. Yesterday’s +1.5% gain for the S&P 500 was further supported by a 2.1% gain in its MoneyFlow as regressed into S&P points; however, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is a treacherous 57.7x. Again, nothing for the Econ Baro is scheduled for today.
Indications are the StateSide government “shutdown” may be resolved this week; that noted, no regularly scheduled metrics are due for the Econ Baro until Thursday; and since the start of the “shutdown” 45 metrics remain missing. For the BEGOS Markets at this instant, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and the Spoo, and session volatility is moderate. Even as by Market Trends the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to fall for both Gold and Silver, The Gold Update points to the precious metals as having been basing, and both are well up today. There are two weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, and although year-over-year improvement on balance is running at an above-average pace with a median bottom-line increase of +9.4%, earnings essentially need to double to get the P/E of the S&P 500 ( the “live” reading 56.3x) down to a far more realistic valuation.
At present we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same are Gold, Silver and Oil, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. Gold, currently 4013, is net “unch” for this week: ’tis the line in the sand to avoid a third straight down week; more of ‘course, in tomorrow’s 834th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At Market Trends, save for Copper and Oil, the “Baby Blues of linreg consistency are falling for the sixth other BEGOS components. For all eight markets, their best pure swing Market Rhythms are as follows: Bond 30mn Moneyflow, Euro and Swiss Franc their 4hr MACDs, Gold 4hr Price Oscillator, Silver 6hr Price Oscillator, Copper 2hr Parabolics, Oil 2hr Price Oscillator, and Spoo 15mn MACD. The StateSide government “shutdown” shall preclude today’s release of October Payrolls data; but awaiting the Econ Baro is the UofM Sentiment Survey for October, plus late in the session September’s Consumer Credit.
The Euro plus the three element of the Metals Triumvirate are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. By Market Trends, linregs are positive for Copper, Oil and the Spoo, and negative for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver. That noted, yesterday Gold crossed back above its Market Value and Silver back above its Market Magnet; the yellow metal’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency currently is the 4hr Price Oscillator, whilst for the white metal ’tis the 15mn Moneyflow. And the Bond yesterday moved below its most volume-dominant Market Profile support (117^14, price now 116^17). As the StateSide “shutdown” continues, the following metrics due today for the Econ Baro shall go missing: Q3’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, September’s Wholesale Inventories, and the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims.
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Whilst higher today, the precious metals’ “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency continue to cascade (see Market Trends). Notably by Market Values, Gold finally has fully reverted to its smooth valuation line after having been above it for 53 consecutive trading days (since 20 August); by its Market Profile, Gold’s most volume-dominant zone of overhead resistance spans from 3990-to-4039; similarly for Silver ’tis from 47.75-to-48.60. The Dollar Index at this instant is precisely 100.000 after basically having been below that level for the past three months. And the Econ Baro does receive two non-government metrics today: October’s ADP Employment and the ISM(Svc) Index, (the StateSide shutdown continuing following a 14th-failed Senate vote last evening).
The Bond is currently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. By Market Trends, Gold’s 21-day linreg has rotated to negative; with 3975 thus far today’s low, again, should 3901 be penetrated by week’s end, the weekly parabolic Long trend shall flip to Short. The Spoo today has closed its up gap from the opening back on 27 October; too, the daily MACD is approaching a negative crossover, and the daily Moneyflow study has dropped below the key mid-point level of 50. Today’s Econ Baro metrics that shan’t be received (give the StateSide “shutdown”) are September’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
‘Tis a fairly quiet start to November for the BEGOS Markets; presently the Bond is below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility is light. The Gold Update confirms our expectations for price having had a second consecutive down week; however year-to-date, there’ve yet to be three negative weeks in-a-row; Gold’s “expect weekly trading range” (172 points) brings the weekly parabolic Long trend into jeopardy should 3901 (last week’s low) be tested as ’tis “within range”. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, in real-time we’ve the Bond as not quite a full point “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.025 points “low”, Gold +89 points “high”, Oil -1.04 points “low” and the Spoo +126 points “high”. Given the ongoing StateSide “shutdown”, for the second consecutive month there shan’t be the otherwise due Construction Spending for September, making for a 35th missing Econ Baro metric; however October’s ISM(Mfg) shall be reported.
All eight BEGOS Markets are currently within their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is light. It remains the case amongst the five primary BEGOS components that’ve we’ve no notable correlations therein. Tomorrow’s 833rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite price’s return back down into the 3000s (as anticipated), albeit ’tis presently 4031 and By Market Values still +110 points “high” above the smooth valuation line; similarly, the Spoo is +156 points above same. Silver had a firm day yesterday in climbing back up through 47.75-48.15 resistance zone (see Market Profiles). We await October’s Chi PMI for the Econ Baro; however, today’s missing reports due to the StateSide “shutdown” are Q3’s Employment Cost Index plus September’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Index.
Presently, Gold is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Market’s volatility is firmly moderate. Unsurprisingly, the FOMC with little data upon which to decide nonetheless reduced the FedFunds interest rate 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. Despite yesterday’s “unch” session, the S&P 500 is (yet again) extremely “textbook overbought”, buoyed almost solely by NVDA and to an extent AAPL; breadth yesterday was poor (25%/75%); the Spoo by Market Values shows (in real-time) as +180 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today, given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, the Bureau of Economic Analysis shan’t be furnishing the first peek at Q3 GDP, nor the Bureau of Labor Statistics the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims. Q3 Earnings Season has reached the midway mark: for the S&P 500, 72% have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago, an above-average pace; of course, the overall level of S&P earnings remains far too low to maintain the current Index levels, especially with a risk-full yield of just 1.126% vs. a risk-less 3.730% on a 3mo. T-Bill.
Both EuroCurrencies are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as is Oil, whilst above same are the Metals Triumvirate and Spoo, session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold yesterday traded down to as low as 3901, which as posted on “X” (@deMeadvillePro) was down through the first of three potential “fib” levels, followed then by 3857 and 3729; both precious metals today, however, are higher, even as their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to drop. Our best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are currently (on a 10-test basis) Silver’s 30mn Moneyflow, Oil’s 4hr MACD and Gold’s 30mn Parabolics, plus (on a 24-test basis) the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Moneyflow, Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow, and Gold’s 60mn Parabolics. For the Econ Baro we await September’s Pending Home Sales. And late in the session comes the FOMC’s Policy Statement for a -0.25% FedFunds interest rate cut.
All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil, are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly moderate. As anticipated in The Gold Update, Gold and Silver continue to correct, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) furthering their falls in real-time; indeed we may see Silver’s trend having rotated from positive to negative by tomorrow or Thursday; mind as well the widened Market Ranges for both precious metals (Gold’s EDTR for today is 129 points whilst that for Silver is 2.42 points). The P/E of the S&P 500 has further skyrocketed to in excess of 60x due in large part to INTC’s “ttm” earnings now but $0.01: the P/E of INTC is now 2,822.5x (see S&P 500, Valuations and Rankings). Despite the StateSide “shutdown”, the Econ Baro will take in some actually data today: October’s Consumer Confidence.
(Note: Europe is now on winter hours). The week gets underway presently finding the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moving toward moderate. The Gold Update sees further near-term downside for price as the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) accelerate lower; indeed Gold today has moved below a shelf of support (see Market Profiles) spanning from 4132-4123, (price now 4083); and in real-time Gold is +250 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant (+0.9%), its P/E would be 50.9x. The week’s highlight comes Wednesday via the Policy Statement from the FOMC. And due today (but unlikely to be reported given the “shutdown”) are Durable Orders for September.
The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same are Copper and the Spoo, and session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold’s “Baby Blues”(see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have provisionally dropped below their key +80% axis such as (upon day’s-end confirmation) to then expect lower prices near-term; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), Gold in real-time shows as +289 points “high”; more on the yellow metal in tomorrow’s 832nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s “Baby Blues” yesterday confirmed crossing above their -80% axis: given price in real-time is about -2 points below its own valuation line, near-term we’d expect Oil to visit the mid-63s from the current mid-61s. Due (but likely not arriving) today for the Econ Baro are September’s CPI (<– update, yes CPI reported) and New Home Sales; however, the non-governmental UofM Sentiment Survey for October ought make the trip.
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moving toward moderate. At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency are dropping, but have yet to move below their key +80% (as did Silver’s so confirm yesterday); thus far today, both precious metals are stabilizing to this point; however by Market Values, Gold in real-time is +335 points above its smooth valuation line; further of note today for Gold, it has been trading either side of its most volume-dominant price of the past fortnight which by the Market Profile is 4123. Given the scattered nature of late amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we find no reasonable correlation — neither positive nor negative — therein. The Econ Baro awaits September’s Existing Home Sales; but with yet another Senate vote such that the StateSide government remains closed, this shall be the fourth consecutive week of missing Initial Jobless Claims.
The Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and Oil are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, albeit Gold already has traced 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As stated yesterday on “X” (@deMeadvillePro), Gold recorded its largest intraday loss by points in history: -300 from 4393 to 4093; (on a percentage basis, the -6.8% intraday drop ranked 33rd worst). Regardless, by Market Values, Gold in real-time (4159) is still +380 points above its smooth valuation line (3779). As for Silver, her intraday drop of -8.7% was enough to pull her “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency in real-time today below the key +80% level; we thus expect still-lower prices for Sister Silver near-term, and thus likely for Gold as well. Again ’tis a nothing-due day for the Econ Baro (irrespective of the StateSide government “shutdown”). And Q3 Earnings Season is going well for the S&P 500 with 80% of reported constituents beating their like earnings of Q3 a year ago; problematic of course is that earnings continue to run too low to support the level of the S&P, its futs-adj’d “live” P/E 49.5x at the moment.
None of the BEGOS Markets are presently above today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Euro and the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate; session volatility is mostly moderate. Gold as a “meme stock” has moved excessively above its key valuation levels: currently 4340, Fair Value is 3873 and BEGOS Market Value is 3765; a reversion to the latter’s mean at this point would be -576 points. Too by Market Values, Oil is currently -6.40 points below its smooth valuation line: currently 57.07, Oil is just above its most volume-dominant supporter of 57.00, with near-by resistance spanning from 57.90 to 58.40. The Gold/Silver ratio in real-time is 86.0x as Silver today (-1.9%) is selling off at a faster pace than is Gold (-0.8%). Nothing is scheduled today nor tomorrow for the Econ Baro; the StateSide Senate voted last evening such that the “shutdown” continues.
Copper is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is below same; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light. The Gold Update likens the yellow metal to trading as a “meme” stock; Gold had similar runs in both 2007/2007 and again in 2011, both of which led to corrections respectively of -34% and -45%; not that we’ll again witness same, however price is better than +300 points above its Fair Value and nearly +500 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). As to the S&P 500, its “risk-full” yield is but 1.170% vs. 3.832% annualized for the “risk-less” 3mo T-Bill; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 49.1x at this moment. Given the ongoing StateSide government “shutdown”, incoming data for the Econ Baro may continue to be scant, however due today is the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators for September. <– “Delayed” due to lack of data. And Q3 Earnings Season picks up its pace as the week unfolds.