As was the case ’round this hour yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are presently within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is light. By Market Trends, yesterday both Silver and Copper confirmed their “Baby Blues” of trend consistency having fallen below the key +80% such that we anticipate lower prices near-term. Per Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our best on a 10-test basis currently is the Swiss Franc’s 6hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis Gold’s daily Parabolics. The S&P 500 despite yesterday’s mild down session nonetheless recorded a fourth consecutive day as being “extremely textbook overbought”: with so much on the table through the balance of this week, we expect the Index to crack at any time. And today, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ADP Employment data, June’s Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2 GDP, which — give the steep decline in the Baro notably for April and May data — shan’t be up to the +2.5% consensus expectation. Then come 18:00 GMT is the FOMC’s Policy Statement within which there shan’t be a FedFunds’ rate change.
All eight BEGOS Markets are at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light with 18 Econ Baro metrics plus the FOMC in the balance of the week. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for December with +57 points of fresh premium. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through its last 24 sessions, indeed “extremely” so for the past 3: we sense the Index is very close to a significant correction, especially with all that’s on the able as noted over these next four days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is currently 47.7x and the yield 1.204% vs. the 3-month T-Bill’s annualized 4.235%. The Econ Baro gets its data parade rolling today with July’s Consumer Confidence.
Presently the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neural Zones, whilst above same are both Oil and the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. The Spoo gapped up some +21 points at the open on tariff resolution: that puts the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at of the S&P at now 47.7x. The Gold Update confirms price’s weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long, the opening price of the new stint effective this morning’s opening trade at 3321; acknowledged therein is Gold’s negative MACD stance also on the weekly timeframe, but that its performance has been a net failure per the last five signals, whereas the last five parabolic Long trends have been a net success. ‘Tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 metrics due, however none for this session.
Gold is presently below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and again volatility is light. The Spoo continues to make all-time highs, today (to this point) having reached 6421; currently at 6414, accounting for Fair Value (+36) would pull the S&P 500 higher still at its opening to 6378, just short of its all-time high yesterday of 6381. The S&P is now “extremely textbook overbought” meaning that each of its BollBands, RSI and Stochastics are stretched as such; this last occurred just on 03 July, the following trading day (07 July) then finding a intraday -78-point drop in the S&P. Tomorrow’s 819th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update shall cite the weekly parabolic trend as having flipped from Short-to-Long despite price intraweek having dropped nearly -100 points high-to-low. And the Econ Baro closes out its mild week with June’s Durable Orders.
Both Gold and Silver are presently below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Currently our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold. We continue to monitor Market Trends’ “Baby Blues” for the Spoo which have popped back above the key +80% axis: but by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +269 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is now “textbook overbought” through its last 21 days; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 47.0x even as Q2 Earnings are thus far underperforming their average year-over-year pace of improvement. Today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include June’s New Home Sales.
Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend has — after 10 weeks — provisionally flipped to Long as 3449 traded early on at 00:21 GMT; confirmation comes at Friday’s settle, (barring 3123 unlikely trading in the interim). Presently, we’ve the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. For the S&P 500, not recognizable in yesterday’s +0.1% gain was a cap-weighted -$62B drain alone from NVDA: mind our S&P Moneyflow page. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have exceptionally in real-time lurched from +76% to +81%: however, they soon ought well sink sub-80% toward price selling off. Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our leader in the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis we additionally note the Spoo’s 15mn Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD. June’s Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
Apologies as there was a delay in getting yesterday’s commentary posted; ’tis been resolved and is there now. On to today, our key thought is ’tis amazing that 34 of the past 39 monthly Leading Indicators reports have been negative, the pace of earnings improvement weakening, and yet the S&P 500 is making all-time highs: fairly startling stuff. At present this Tuesday, Gold is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency continue to slip, however slightly, the real-time reading now +76%: as regular followers know, having gone beneath the +80% axis generally leads to lower prices near-term. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And as to the noted weakening Q2 Earnings Pace, for the 47 S&P constituents having thus far reported, just 62% have bettered their bottom lines from the like quarter a year ago; such improvement through the years averages 66%. We sense the S&P is quite near “The Sell”.
Into a light economic data week we go with at present the Bond, Gold and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update describes price as being in a shell these many weeks, the weekly parabolic flip from Short-to-Long now at 3449; too, we emphasize the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) as having fallen below the key +80% level: they are lower still today thus far in real-time, such that lower prices ought well appear near-term; the Spoo is currently +246 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro awaits June’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, which not surprisingly are expected to remain negative, albeit the Baro had a record-setting boost in the past two weeks (as cited in The Gold Update).
The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are basically on their key +80% axis: an up day likely keeps the Short signal at bay through today; both the Spoo and S&P 500 itself yesterday recorded all-time highs both intra-day as well as for settles; the S&P is 17 days “textbook overbought” through yesterday, and the futs-adj’d P/E is presently 46.9x; per usual, the “Baby Blues” shall alert us to the next downside move. Whilst there’s quite a bit of jubilation early on in Q2 Earnings Season over companies having beaten estimates (85% thus far for S&P 500 constituents), only 64% (a below average pace) have actually bettered their bottom lines from the like quarter a year ago. The Econ Baro wraps its robust upside week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s Housing Starts/Permits.
Presently, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold all are below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best correlation currently is positive between the Bond and Euro. Per yesterday’s comment, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time down to the +80% axis: confirmation of breaking below that level reasonably suggests a near-term run into the lower 6100s, (current price 6310); of note, the “live” P/E of the S&P 500 (futs-adj’d) is 46.5x. And ’tis a very busy day for the Econ Baro with eight metrics due, including July’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indices, June’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus May’s Business Inventories.
Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is very light. Per Market Rhythms, our current leaders for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) Gold’s 6hr Parabolics, and (on a 24-test basis) Oil’s 15mn MACD, Gold’s 6hr MACD, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 2hr Parabolics. Although both the S&P 500 and Spoo yesterday reached intra-day all-time highs, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are slipping in real-time to the +83% level: should they settle below the key +80% axis level come tomorrow or Friday, ‘twould be an outright sell signal; too, the anticipated price declines as herein noted are in progress given recent like signals for the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for September. The Econ Baro awaits June’s PPI and IndProd/CapUtil. And late in the session is the release of the Fed’s Tan Tome.
The Euro, Gold and the Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is mostly light, save for Gold having traced 52% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo is teasing an all-time high toward 6336: the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.2x with a yield of 1.228%; that for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill annualized is 4.228%. The Spoo by Market Values in real-time is +216 points above its smooth valuation line and the S&P itself is now “textbook overbought” through the last 14 trading days. The Econ Baro gets its busy week underway with July’s NY State Empire Index, plus June’s CPI which is expected to have heated up.
The week is off and running with at present the Euro and Spoo below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is Silver, the star of The Gold Update; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. As anticipated, the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency confirmed on Friday having fallen beneath their key +80% axis, as had those for the Euro a day earlier; should the Franc get some downside momentum, we’d initially target 1.25050, (current price being 1.26285); too for the Euro (currently 1.17065) we’re seeking at least 1.16855, (the signal having originated from 1.17510). The Econ Baro is quiet today with 18 incoming metrics then due in the week’s balance. And Q2 Earnings Season picks up its reporting pace as the week unfolds: ’twill be interesting to see how year-over-year profitability has fared given the marked decline in the Econ Baro through Q2.
Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate for the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil which has traced but 21% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). With Friday left in the balance, Gold may be en route to recording its narrowest trading week of the year: more, ‘natch, in tomorrow’s 817th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have settled below their +80% axis; the Swiss Franc appears to do same come today’s close. Too, the Euro is now paired with Gold for the best current correlation — in this case negative — amongst the five primary BEGOS components, (reminding us once again that Gold plays no currency favourites). The Econ Baro finishes its muted week late in the session with June’s Treasury Budget.
At present all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. Given the recent hem-n-haw of late, we’ve no outstanding Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency; however from the “fade” (i.e. “anti-rhythm”) category, the best 10-test “fade” has been the non-BEGOS Yen’s 4hr EMA; for the 24-hour basis, the best “fade” has been Oil’s daily MACD. By Market Profiles, Gold’s most volume-dominant overhead resistor is 3347, whereas for Silver, her best volume-dominant underlying supporter is 36.65. For the EuroCurrencies, the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of both the Euro and Swiss Franc continue to curl over to the downside such that by week’s end, one if not both shall confirm sell signals (upon the Blues falling below the +80% axis). The only metric due today in this quiet stint for the Econ Baro is last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.
Copper yesterday recorded its largest percentage gain from prior close-to-high (+17.8%) so far this century, the day’s net gain (+10.1%) ranking third-most. This morning, the red metal is at present +3.3% and ’tis the only BEGOS Market above its Neutral Zone; below same is Gold, and session volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having thus far traced 148% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time: the Bond shows as -2^01 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro as +0.0098 points “high”, Gold as -120 points “low”, Oil as +1.14 points “high”, and the Spoo as +164 points “high”. Q2 Earnings Season is underway. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Wholesale Inventories. And late in the session come the FOMC’s Minutes from its 17-18 June Meeting.
Very early on this morning as we go into motion, the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light, given the hour. As anticipated, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency have just slipped below their 0%, indicative of the trend having rotated to negative. Too, those for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are showing the initial signs of rolling very after having been “on the ceiling” of late. Our best Market Rhythm for the Bond (by which a profit target is sought rather than a pure swing) is its daily MACD having confirmed a negative crossing to start the session: better than 3 fully points of gain have followed 7 of the past 10 crossovers. And late in the session for the Econ Baro comes May’s Consumer Credit.
The two-day (04 and 07 July) trading session continues, now finding Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones; the Bond and EuroCurrencies are within same, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate albeit Silver has traced 111% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update depicts the last week having recorded both a lower high and a lower low, yet finishing with a net weekly gain, a phenomena not having occurred since last October; regardless, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend remains Short through the past eight weeks; Gold at present is the sole BEGOS component sporting a negative linreg (see Market Trends): however those for both Silver and Oil appear poised to rotate from positive to negative as the week unfolds. Just four metrics are due for the Econ Baro this week, none being on the slate for today.
The BEGOS Markets commence a two-day session for Monday settlement such as to bridge the gap of the StateSide Holiday. And at present we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above their respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold looks poised to post an up week, albeit with likely both a lower high and lower low than a week ago; more of course in tomorrow’s 816th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500 settled its week at yet another all-time high (6279 at close) and with a trailing 12 months’ P/E of 45.1x; the Index is now in an extreme “textbook overbought” condition; and specific to the Spoo (which is trading today until the 17:00 GMT holiday halt) is in real-time +218 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Happy 4th to those of you across The Pond!
At present we’ve only Silver outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, our best currently is positive between the Euro and Spoo, both of which have firmly been relentlessly up month-over-month; indeed at Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency for both markets are essentially “crawling across the ceiling”. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is (futs adj’d) 44.9x and the yield 1.237% vs. 4.223% annualized on the U.S. 3mo T-Bill; too, the S&P is now seven consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”. Given the StateSide holiday tomorrow, we’ve eight incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, including June’s Payrolls data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus May’s Factory Orders and Trade Deficit. The BEGOS Markets resume trading at their usual time tonight, but with settlement for Monday, (07 July), inclusive of the trading halt late tomorrow.
The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold is leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis is the yellow metal’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis are both the 4hr and 8hr Parabolics; Gold had a firm start to the week, however its 21-day linreg trend continues to rotate more negatively, the “Baby Blues” of such trend’s consistency furthering their fall (see Market Trends). Following the ISR/IRN conflict, Oil’s day-to-day range has narrowed considerably, the last five trading sessions having spanned less than two points/day vs. the EDTR (see Market Ranges) of currently 3.44 points. And the Spoo continues its move up into record territory, albeit the S&P’s MoneyFlow yesterday was far more negative than the slight down change in the Index itself. The Econ Baro looks to June’s ADP Employment data.
Both Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. At Market Trends, Gold is the sole component in negative linreg, even as price is bouncing a bit; by Market Ranges, Gold’s EDTR is now 56 points, (of which 54% has traded thus far today); Copper already has traded 90% of its EDTR (0.114 points); the red metal is having a solid up run despites its “Baby Blues” of trend consistency weakening some two-to-three weeks ago; Copper’s best Market Rhythm currently for pure swing consistency on our 10-test basis is its 30mn Parabolics. For the Econ Baro we’ve June’s ISM(Mfg) Index and May’s Construction Spending.
This first day of the week and last day of Q2 finds at present Gold, Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update takes a near-term bearish view, especially given the highly-visible weekly MACD having confirmed a cross to negative, (and the weekly parabolic Short trend having completed a seventh week); too, Gold’s 21-day linreg trend has rotated to negative; price at present is 3301, however has traded thus far this morning to as low as 3251. The Spoo (6254) is sufficiently up at the moment for the S&P 500 to open above 6200, (“fair value” is +50 points). And the Econ Baro looks to June’s Chi PMI.
Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As we look toward tomorrow’s 815th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal looks to continue its weekly parabolic Short trend, even as price is higher (3299) than when it began (3220); too for Gold, the weekly MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, and price this week has slipped below both its Market Value and Market Magnet; too by Market Trends, Gold’s linreg looks en route to rotating to negative during next week. The event of the day is May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE data, other incoming Econ Baro metrics including the month’s Personal Income/Spending. And should the Spoo be priced above 6198 (currently 6211) upon the commencement of StateSide RTH trading, the S&P 500 would print an all-time high at the open.
As was the case at this time yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility, whilst light, is rangier than ’twas 24 hours ago. Seems “all are waiting” for tomorrow’s “Fed-favoured” inflation data via May’s PCE. At Market Rhythms, we note on the 24-test basis the pure swing consistency of late for the Bond’s 15mn MACD, the median duration of each swing being some 4-to-5 hours. Per Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, however the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are dropping for Gold, Silver and Oil; those for Copper have curtailed their fall: the red metal’s daily Parabolics appear poised to flip from Short-to-Long in the next few days, barring a sudden price decline. Incoming Econ Baro metrics include May’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the final read on Q1 GDP.
The BEGOS Markets are comparatively quiet across the board given the recent events/ceasefire in the Mid-East: at present, all eight components are within today’s Neutral Ranges and volatility is very light, the average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing just 24% to this point. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, there are not any overly extreme deviations: in real-time, the Bond shows as -0^30 points “low” beneath its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.009 points “high”, Gold -45 points “low”, Oil +1.67 points “high”, and the Spoo +121 points “high”, the latter’s EDTR being 82 points. At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency for both Gold and Oil confirmed dropping below their key +80% axes, indicative of still lower prices near-term. And the Econ Baro awaits May’s New Home Sales.
Concerns over the Mid-East conflict have basically been absorbed by the BEGOS Markets as a “ceasefire” comes to the fore. The Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are both Gold and Oil; session volatility is firmly moderate. From yesterday’s Oil high of 78.40 to today’s low (thus far) of 64.38 is a -17.9% drop. Copper has been resilient even as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue lower still; the red metal’s cac volume is moving from July into that for September as too shall be the case for Silver over the next day or two. The Spoo (on a continuous cac basis) has today tapped 6140, the all-time high being 6167 on 19 February. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics are June’s Consumer Confidence and Q1’s Current Account Deficit.
Some five hours following release of The Gold Update came the States’ sortie over IRN; however, to look this morning at the BEGOS Markets, they appear as a fairly normal start to the week, save for volatility being moderate-to-robust; Oil is the only component at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, currently +1.4%; early on, ’twas up as much as +5.9%. Gold presently is -0.4%, The Gold Update suggesting the weekly Short trend becoming “elongated”, notably with the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) rolling over to the downside. And the Spoo is -0.2%. The deteriorating Econ Baro has 13 metrics scheduled for this week, commencing with May’s Existing Home Sales.
The two-day session continues, at present finding the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc above their Neutral Zones and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate below same; volatility (as is typical in accounting for two days) is mostly robust. The Spoo yesterday traded below its “low if a down day” (5979), price having since rebounded nearly all the way back up. As anticipated, Copper is weaking as its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) drop further still; too, those for both Silver and Gold are curling over to the downside: more on it all in tomorrow’s 814th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Oil’s recent strength given the Mid-East strife finds price (in real-time) +12.30 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). And the best correlation currently amongst our five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Gold, albeit the latter has been coming off a bit. The Econ Baro finishes its week with June’s Philly Fed Index and May’s Leading (i.e. given the Baro, “lagging”) Indicators.
Given the StateSide holiday, ’tis a two-day session for the BEGOS Markets with settlement on Friday. At present, we’ve the the two EuroCurrencies, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same is Oil; volatility thus far is moderate, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer being Gold at 71%; of note, the yellow metal’s weekly Parabolic trend still is Short and would end the week as such, barring a rally from here (3366) of some +114 points (3480 being the flip-to-Long price) by Friday. As for Copper, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) fallout continues without price (as yet) having materially let go to the downside; however today, Copper has marginally slipped below its most dominant volume price supporter (see Market Profiles) at 4.815. The various trading halts for the holiday commence at 17:00 GMT.
At present we’ve the Euro, Silver and Copper above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly light, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point being 50% for both Gold and Copper. Specific to the red metal, Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue their fall as the consistency of price’s uptrend breaks down. Looking at Market Magnets, save for Oil (which yesterday settled 8.73 points above its Magnet) the balance of the BEGOS Bunch are basically at their respective Magnet levels. Due to tomorrow’s StateSide holiday, the Econ Baro today (rather than Thursday) receives the prior week’s Initial Jobless Claims; due too are May’s Housing Starts/Permits. And late in today’s session comes the FOMC’s “no change” Policy Statement, although the plunging Econ Baro and benign (by May) inflation ought be substance for an eventual FedFunds rate cut.
As internally texted last evening, the markets appear to have “priced-in” the Mid-East conflict and now are “on hold” ahead of the Fed on Wednesday: at present, seven of the eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today (Silver being just a tad above same), and session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive linreg, although the consistency of that for Copper is notably weakening. Oil, which as it did yesterday spiked up and then retreated, still finds by Market Values current price (70.46) +9.65 points “high” above its smooth valuation line; too, the Spoo is at present +151 points “high” by the like measure. ‘Tis quite the cavalcade of incoming metrics due today for the Econ Baro, including June’s NAHB Housing Index, May’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business Inventories.
Despite Mid-East turmoil, the BEGOS Markets by change appear rather disinterested. Both the Bond and Gold are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; session volatility however is moderate-to-robust, primarily as Oil spiked higher at the open to 75.50 but since retreated to now 71.78. The Gold Update acknowledges the weekly parabolic Short trend as having survived another week even as price has been rising throughout: the hurdle for the trend to flip to Long in the new week is 3480, the high today already 3476 before price having since pulled back to now 3436. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from June into September with +54 points of fresh premium; (as noted on Friday, Oil’s cac volume is moving from July into August). And 14 metrics come due for the Econ Baro this week, including for today June’s NY State Empire Index.
The overnight Mid-East offensive has made robust the volatility of the BEGOS Markets: notable movers are Oil having traced 443% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo 156%, the Euro 113% and Gold 109%. Presently above today’s Neutral Zones are the Bond, Gold and Oil, whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Gold is getting the geo-political bid (sans Silver) in having traded to as high as 3467, which is not enough to flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 3487 to trade today); more of course in tomorrow’s 813th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in the new week may move below their key +80% axis which would point to lower price levels near-term; the Dollar is firming today (+0.4%) even as Gold is up (+1.1%). The EuroCurrencies’ cac volumes are rolling from June into those for September; watch same for Oil from July into August toward Monday. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with UofM’s Sentiment Survey for June.
Presently, the Euro and Swiss Franc are above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends, all eight components are in positive 21-day linreg, which reflects the downturn in the Dollar Index from 100.840 a month ago to now 98.360. However, going ’round the Market Values horn in real-time, we’ve the Bond -2^05 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; for the other primary components, the Euro shows as essentially in synch with such valuation, Gold as +50 points “high”, Oil as +5.99 points “high” and the Spoo as +185 points “high”. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include wholesale inflation per May’s PPI.
All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within their respective Neutral Zones for today and session volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis the current leaders are the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics and Gold’s 6hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve (yet again) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euros 2hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD. By Market Trends, in real-time the “Baby Blues” for both the Euro and Swiss Franc are kinking lower for the first time in some three weeks, an early indication that their recent rallies are running out of puff; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have stalled their descent, but have not reversed back upward. The Econ Baro looks to May’s retail inflation via the CPI; and late in the session come’s the month’s Treasury Budget.
Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Range for today; session volatility is pushing toward moderate, following a fairly narrow day yesterday; indeed by Market Ranges, all eight BEGOS components have seen plunging EDTRs over the last month. At Market Trends, only the Bond is in negative linreg, however ’tis rotating toward positive; and in real-time, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are rising across the board including ~barely~ for the Spoo, the latter’s having been in descent for some three weeks without price (as yet) succumbing per se. Regardless, the S&P 500 continues its significant overvaluation, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E currently 47.0x and yield a wee 1.282% vs. 4.240% annualized for the 3mo. U.S. T-Bill. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of inflation data into the balance of the week.
The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights Silver’s +9.4% net gain for last week, whereas that for Gold was just +0.5%; and yet with the Gold/Silver ratio now 91.9x, relative to the yellow metal, the white metal nonetheless remains cheap given the century-to-date average ratio of 69.1x. Per Market Values, Gold is essentially on its smooth valuation line; the Spoo however is +258 points above same; and yes, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are lower yet again without price having materially fallen, albeit such leading indicator suggests the selling is coming. For the Econ Baro — the negative divergence of which from the S&P 500 is stunning — the week begins with April’s Wholesale Inventories.
Into week’s end finds Silver — having yesterday made a 13-year high — at present above its Neutral Zone for today as is the Spoo, whilst below same is the Swiss Franc; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. And yes, despite the Spoo being higher, its “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency (see Market Trends) are lower for an 11th consecutive session; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +252 points “high” over it smooth valuation line, whilst the S&P 500 itself is “textbook overbought” with a P/E (“live” 46.3x) basically double the historical multiple. By Market Profiles, overhead Spoo resistance shows in the 5978-5982 zone, and underlying support from 5923 to 5915. The Econ Baro awaits the data for May’s Payrolls, plus late in the session comes April’s Consumer Credit. Obviously we’ll salute Sister Silver in tomorrow’s 812th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.
As was the case at this point yesterday, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is very light. The fallout continues in the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency such that we still anticipate (as first mentioned back on 26 May) a near-term move down into the lower 5700s/5600s, whereas presently price is 5974 and is in real-time by Market Values +291 points above the smooth valuation line. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; the latter remains in its weekly parabolic Short trend even as price has been quite resilient throughout the past three weeks. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include April’s Trade Deficit and the revisions to Q1’s Prod/CapUtil.
Presently, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones and volatility is light. In assessing the best Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Euro’s 1hr MACD, and the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis the leaders are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and that for 1hr, plus Gold’s 1hr MACD and 4hr Parabolics. As regularly noted of late, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to fall (see Market Trends) with price yet to cave. And for the BEGOS bunch at large, all — save for the Bond — are in linreg uptrends, albeit weakening as just cited for the Spoo as well as for Oil. The Econ Baro looks to May’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index. Then late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.
Following a sharp up day for the Metals Triumvirate, all three elements are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, as is the Spoo; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are yet again further falling as the linreg consistency of the uptrend continues to weaken, whilst at Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is +298 points above its smooth valuation line; and by Market Profiles, the most dominantly-traded price of the past fortnight is 5915; the “live” P/E for the S&P 500 itself is 47.0x. The Econ Baro is basically at its lowest level since 22 August, and due today are April’s Factory Orders.
The sole BEGOS Market at present within today’s Neutral Zone is the Bond; below same is the Spoo and the balance of the bunch are above same; session volatility is moderate, and Copper notably already has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update sees price as having been more in a stall than a fall, albeit the weekly parabolic Short trend is entering its fourth week. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg consistency continue to drop, whilst those for the Bond on Friday confirmed moving up above their -80%, suggesting further near-term recovery for price combined with some yield softening. The Econ Baro beings a fairly busy week with May’s ISM(Mfg) Index and April’s Construction Spending.
The Euro, Gold and Silver are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold — barring turning ’round into an up day — is en route to recording a fourth down week in the last six, albeit price hasn’t (yet?) materially succumbed to the recently new weekly parabolic Short trend; more of course in tomorrow’s 811th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Yesterday was a “failure day” for the Spoo, the entirety of its intra-day +82 gain being hoovered away; still, the S&P MoneyFlow has been robust across all three of our timeframes (see S&P 500/Moneyflow), and technically, the Spoo’s daily parabolics just flipped from Short-to-Long at today’s open; either way, the overvaluation of the S&P remains critical. The Econ Baro wraps the week, indeed the month, with May’s Chi PMI and revised UofM Sentiment Survey, plus April’s Personal Income/Spending and (the BIG event) “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data. “Sell in May and go away”? On verra…
The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are Silver, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo notably having already traced 103% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is now +449 points above its smooth valuation line and the futs-adj’d P/E of the S&P 500 is 47.1x; by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg consistency have yet again slipped in spite of this up session. Looking at correlations for the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold; too of note is the negative correlation between Gold and the Spoo. Amongst today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are April’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q1 GDP.
Both the Euro and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. Gold is picking up +27 points of fresh premium as the cac volume rolls from June into that for August; too, the Bond’s cac volume is moving from June into September. Despite yesterday’s strength in the Spoo (+2.2%), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are lower still today in real-time, again suggesting a return (as previously noted) into the low 5700s/5600s, (barring the Blues getting a grip). Looking at Market Rhythms, on a 10-test basis our current leaders for pure swing consistency are Gold’s 6hr MACD, the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 15mn EMA, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr EMA; on a 24-test basis, we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, the Euro’s 30mn MACD and Gold’s 4hr Parabolics along with its 30mn MACD. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And late in the session come the FOMC minutes from the 06/07 May meeting.
The two-day GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets’ session continues, now finding the Bond, Euro and Spoo above their respective Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Gold and Copper; session volatility is firmly moderate, the Bond notably having traced 119% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, three are sporting positive linregs: Silver, Oil and the Spoo; however with respect to the latter, as noted yesterday the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have fallen below their +80% axis, despite the current session’s up strength. Per the Spoo’s 10-day Market Profile, the overheard dominant volume resistors (price currently 5883) are 5908, 5938, and 5959. And by Market Rhythms, for the Spoo’s pure swing consistency, its current best study is the 12hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence and April’s Durable Orders.
The StateSide holiday elicits a two-day session (with Tuesday settle) for the GLOBEX/BEGOS Markets. Thus far we’ve both the Bond and Gold below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both the Euro and Spoo; session volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the very firm week (+4.8%) for the yellow metal, however reminds that the weekly parabolic trend is Short. The Spoo is off to a robust start for this week (at present +1.2%); yet as suggested in Friday’s comment, by Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency have now (provisionally in real-time) fallen below the key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels near-term, perhaps into the lower 5700s/5600s by price structure; indeed the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +377 points above its smooth valuation line. 11 incoming metrics are due for the Econ Baro as the week unfolds, notably April’s “Fed-favoured” PCE come Friday.
At present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are above today’s Neutral Zones, while below same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. Gold — currently in the first week of its fresh parabolic Short trend — had seen its daily parabolics flip to Short effective 01 May: yesterday that study reversed to Long; obviously the broader measure (weekly) carries more price swing import, and we’ll of course further assess the situation in tomorrow’s 810th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo’s daily MACD appears poised to make a negative crossover into early next week; (note the five-hour Spoo trading halt during Monday’s StateSide observance of Memorial Day); too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are curling over such that a breach of the +80% axis looks to occur early in the new week. And the Econ Baro wraps its own week today with April’s New Home Sales.
Both Gold and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moving toward moderate. Topping Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency we’ve (on a 10-test basis) both the non-BEGOS Yen’s 1hr Price Oscillator and 1hr EMA (the Yen now higher for an eighth consecutive day), along with Gold’s 6hr MACD and the Spoo’s 12hr Parabolics (which flipped to Short yesterday at 12:00 CET; too in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +387 points above its smooth valuation line); plus (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, Copper’s 4hr Parabolics along with Gold’s 4hr Parabolics, and the Bond’s 1hr Price Oscillator. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are Existing Home Sales for April.