PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

We’ve the Euro at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Oil; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Across the past eight trading days, Silver’s low-to-high run is +9.7%. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study continues to top the stack, followed by the Yen’s (not officially a BEGOS component) 15mn Parabolics. Looking at Market Values, the Bond is some -4 points below its smooth valuation line, the Euro some -0.02 points “low”, and the Spoo -144 points low. The Spoo (4382) by its Market Profile shows its most dominant resistors at 4385 and 4420. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with UofM’s Revised Sentiment Survey for August. FedChair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole.

‘Tis the metals in play thus far today, Gold at present above its Neutral Zone, whilst Silver and Copper are below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are quiet, and volatility is light. Silver has risen better than +6% net these past three days; more on Silver in this Saturday’s edition of The Gold Update. Oil finally has weakened such as to break its previous low (which was 78.95), reaching down yesterday to 77.62: this suggests a move sub-75 as the “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) too continue their descent; further, Oil’s 21-day LinReg trend has now rotated to negative. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are July’s Durable Orders.

The Bond, Metals Triumvirate and Spoo all are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver which has already traced 60% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Rhythms, heading the list of the 24-test swing basis (for 405 studies) is the long-time visibly-observed Spoo’s 15mn MACD, likely the most popular trading study going back better than 20 years from our days at AvidTrader. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” continue to descend; however, price has yet to break lower to our anticipated mid-to-low 70s range (currently 79.46). The Econ Baro awaits July’s New Home Sales.

The Euro is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. As was previewed in The Gold Update, Silver yesterday took off, its +2.5% single-day gain ranking as 10th best year-to-date; and now in real-time, Silver’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) have provisionally crossed above their -80% axis, confirmation of which at day’s end would suggest still higher price levels near-term; Silver’s favoured Market Rhythm at present is its 8hr Parabolics, (which triggered Long on 16 August from 22.660, price now 23.370). For the S&P 500, “fear” still has yet to appear as the MoneyFlow’s differential to the Index itself is gaining ground; nonetheless, the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is a terribly expensive 45.8x. For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s Existing Home Sales.

The Bond starts its week at present below the Neutral Zone, whilst above same is that for Oil; volatility remains light-to moderate per this time of the session. The Gold Update looks to Gold’s low for the current weekly parabolic Short trend as either being in place or quite nearby in the 1901-1893 area (price currently is 1918); too, the Update looks to this week’s BRICS rendezvous as a “non-event” in terms of any material outcome. In looking at Market Rhythms with the most consistent returns of late (10-test swing basis), we still note the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow plus its 30mn MACD, the Yen’s 8hr Parabolics plus its 15mn MACD, and Oil’s 30mn Parabolics. ‘Tis a muted week for the Econ Baro, with nothing due today.

The Bond is at present above today’s Neutral Zone; the Swiss Franc is below same, and volatility is again light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets. Per our S&P MoneyFlow page, fear has yet to be exhibited during this recent selloff, (which is why the MoneyFlow line is rising relative to the Index itself); in fact near-term, the S&P 500 is now a bit “textbook oversold” and the Spoo (in real-time) is -184 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). By the same measure for the other primary BEGOS Components, the Bond shows as -6.5 points “low”, the Euro as -0.27 points “low”, Gold as -44 points “low”, and Oil as +3.8 points “high”. Today is the final day of Q2 Earnings Season.

The Bond is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; both Silver and Copper are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) as dropping below their +80% axis; as tweeted (@deMeadvillePro) yesterday, typical downside price follow-through would suggest we see the 74s, 73s, 72s near-term; (note that cac volume is beginning to roll from September into that for October; both cacs are currently in the 79s). For the S&P 500, the recent selling has been light vis-à-vis MoneyFlow, even as earnings have hardly been impressive. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with metrics including August’s Philly Fed Index and July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Outside at present of their Neutral Zones for today are both the Bond (above) and Oil (below); the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally dropped below their key +80% axis, which if confirmed by day’s end portends still lower price levels near-term; even as Oil declined yesterday, price remains (in real-time) +4.60 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values). The Spoo yesterday reached our initial downside target of 4455. The Econ Baro today looks to July’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil. Late in the session we’ve the FOMC’s Minutes from their 25-26 July meeting.

Following a below-average volume day for the BEGOS Markets, quiet thus far today is again the watchword, (albeit a lot of EconData waits in the wings); at present, the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst the Euro is above same; session volatility is light. We continue to mind Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Ranges): in real-time they’ve kinked lower, although are still above the key +80% axis; at Market Values, Oil is +6.96 points above its smooth valuation line; presently priced at 82.73, Oil’s most dominant Market Profile resistor is just above here at 82.80; (the recent high is 84.89). For the Econ Baro we’ve August’s NY State and NAHB Housing Indices, July’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and June’s Business Inventories.

Copper and Oil commence the week at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update emphasizes that ’tis not just the yellow metal that’s been in decline, but — save for Oil — all the BEGOS components have been falling as the Dollar firms, notably so their “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends). Specific to Oil, again mind its “Baby Blues” to crack below their +80% axis as this week unfolds, (which in turn would suggest lower levels for price). This is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season; and whilst the Econ Baro is quiet today, it awaits 14 incoming metrics tomorrow through Thursday.

Early on we’ve all eight BEGOS Markets at present within today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is very light. By Market Trends, every component (save for Oil) is now in a decided downtrend, evidence of the Dollar’s strength during the past few weeks. Specific to the Spoo as regards our anticipated run down to at least 4455, yesterday’s low came relatively near at 4474, (considering having come down from our first such musings at 4634 some two weeks ago); Market Profile support shows at 4487, with the first notable resistor at 4514. The Econ Baro wraps its week with the UofM Sentiment Survey for August, plus July’s wholesale inflation read via the PPI.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its respective Neutral Zone for today; however by Market Trends, the Spoo’s 21-day LinReg trend has just rotated to negative (as tweeted earlier this morning @deMeadvillePro); we still seek 4454 to trade near-term, (price currently 4508). Session volatility is quite light ahead of retail inflation data. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study remains our most consistent, whilst on a 24-test swing basis ’tis Oil’s 30mn. MoneyFlow. As noted, metrics due today for the Econ Baro include July’s CPI and the months Treasury Budget.

Both Copper and the Spoo are at present above their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light, (Copper the sole components having traced in excess of 50% of its EDTR by Market Ranges). At Market Trends, save for Oil, the seven other markets all find their “Baby Blues” of regression trend consistency in decline, even as the Spoo itself seeks a relief rally off of yesterday’s low (4482, now 4530); by its Market Profile, the Spoo shows trading resistance initially at 4537. Meanwhile, the P/E of the S&P has notably come off from the mid-50s to the mid-40s (still “way too high”) in large part from AMZN (3.7% of the S&P 500) earnings improvement knocking its own P/E down from 300+ to just over 100. With much of Q2 Earnings Season in the books, 57% of the reporting S&P 500 constituents have improved their bottom lines over a year ago.

The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Whilst the S&P yesterday rose +0.9%, its MoneyFlow was actually negative, (see S&P: sub-menu MoneyFlow); specific to the Spoo (4525), we continue to seek the 4455 level (i.e. the mid-point of the initial 4498-4411 underlying support structure). At Market Values, we note two excessive readings: Oil is some +7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Bond is some -6 points below same. For June metrics, the Econ Baro awaits the Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update — whilst depicting price nearing its “flip-to-Long” level by the weekly bars — is nonetheless duly cited as being in sync with the other primary BEGOS components, which save for Oil, are in near-term decline; too we review the S&P’s P/E as posied to revert to its mean, which from the current price level (4478) would be a “correction” of -27% toward the 3200s. The Econ appears starts its week late in the session with June’s Consumer Credit.

Silver is at present below today’s Neutral Zone; above same is the Spoo, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow study tops our list for consistency, whilst on a 24-test swing basis Copper is ruling the roost with its 30mn MACD, 1hr Parabolics, and 15mn Price Oscillator; (see too our Market Rhythms pages for the best performers with given profit targets). We’re minding Oil for a move lower as the 82 level these last few days seems a sticking point: Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) can give us the cue. StateSide ’tis July Payrolls for the Econ Baro.

The Bond, Swiss Franc, Silver, Oil, Spoo are all at present below their Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond notably having already traded 112% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the latter by Market Values is more than -8 points below its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo finally has returned to same for the first time since 05 May. By Market Trends, the Spoo has confirmed its “Baby Blues” dropping below their key -80% level; thus still lower price levels are expected near-term; as noted we’re seeking the 4455 level. The S&P yesterday fully unwound its “textbook overbought” condition following that run of 41 consecutive trading days. In addition to Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the Econ Baro looks to July’s ISM(Svc) Index and June’s Factory Orders.

The Spoo gapped -18 points lower in concert with Fitch downgrading (as they’d been anticipating to do) the StateSide credit rating from AAA to AA+; (this occurred whilst the Spoo was in its usual one-hour closure from 21:00-22:00 GMT); the Spoo at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, as is Copper; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” have preliminarily dropped below their +80% level, indicative of lower prices near-term: this last occurred on 27 June, however the downside follow-through was at best minimal, (the exception rather than the rule); we continue initially to look toward the mid-point of prior Spoo structural support ’round 4455, (current price 4575). For the Econ Baro today we’ve July’s ADP Employment data; (the first read of Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs is scheduled for tomorrow, 03 August).

Each component of the BEGOS Markets’ metals’ triumvirate is at present below its respective Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS bunch are within same, and volatility is mostly light. In real-time by Market Values, Oil is 8.92 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Bond is nearly -5 points below same. The S&P 500 confirmed its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; however by our MoneyFlow page, the upside thrust lacks puff. By the Spoo’s Market Profile, the most dominant supporters are 4605, followed by the 4588-4584 zone. The Econ Baro awaits July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

Save for the Euro and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the Bond and Gold both at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes the +40-point price contango as cac volume rolls from August into December; currently priced at 1993, the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend would flip to Long should 2005 be eclipsed this week. The S&P 500 enters its 40th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought” making it the 10th longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years, (the record is 59 days); the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 58.5x. Due for the econ Baro is July’s Chi PMI.

Both the Bond and the Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are both Copper and the Spoo; overall BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate: of note on the heels of yesterday’s Yen acceleration, it today has already traced 306% of its “expected daily trading range” (EDTR). At long last, the S&P may finally be running out of puff, its “textbook overbought” condition entering a 39th consecutive trading day which ties it for the 10th-longest such streak across the past 44 calendar years; yesterday’s selling after the Index reached 4607 was sufficiently swift that perhaps “the light is going on” as to stocks’ extreme overvaluation. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” look to curl below their key +80% level come Monday, suggestive of materially lower price levels; and yesterday, the Spoo confirmed a negative crossing of its Market Magnet, which too points to lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to the Fed’s favoured Core PCE for June, along with the month’s Personal Income/Spending data, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

The Bond, Oil and the Spoo are at present all above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility already is firmly moderate. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from August into December: the price premium for the latter is +40 points over spot. The S&P 500 looks to provisionally open a 38th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the futs-adj’d live P/E is 57.9x. By Market Values, the Spoo is +108 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst Oil is +7.47 points above its like measure. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at Q2’s GDP.

Ahead of the Fed, both the Swiss Franc and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; below same are Copper and the Spoo; session volatility as expected is mostly light. 36 days now is the S&P 500 “textbook overbought” at what we deem an “extreme” level given BollBands, RSI and Stos all triggering as such. Our MoneyFlow page suggests weakening of the Flow vis-à-vis the Index itself, albeit since last Thursday’s massive monetary drain (see both our 21 July comment and the current edition of The Gold Update) there has yet to be any realized follow-though. June’s New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, followed late in the session by the FOMC’s Policy Statement incorporating a FedFunds raise of +0.25% to their 5.25%-5.50% target range.

Our two Euro Currencies plus the metals triumvirate are above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, the metals garnering the most amount of ranginess to this point. The S&P 500 yesterday recorded its 35th consecutive day as “textbook overbought”, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) now 57.7x. Looking to Market Rhythms, on a 10-test swing basis the most consistent studies are the Bond’s 30-min. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow, whilst on a 24-test swing basis the best of the bunch are Oil’s 15-min MACD and 15-min. Parabolics, plus the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) 15-min. MoneyFlow. By Market Values, we’ve Oil (in real-time) better than +7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo is +116 points above same. The Econ Baro looks to July’s Consumer Confidence.

Whilst none of the BEGOS Markets are at present outside of their respective Neutral Zones for today, the overall tilt is negative, save solely for the Euro which is +0.1%; volatility is notably light. The Gold Update anticipates price struggling a wee bit this week as the Fed looks on Wednesday to raise their FundsRate +0.25%. Again emphasized is the vast overvaluation of the S&P 500: indeed comparing year-over-year price to the cap-weighted P/E, the imputed level of earnings for the Index as a unit is significantly lower; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 57.5x. The Econ Baro again is quiet today ahead of 12 metrics due as the balance week unfolds.

Both Copper and Oil are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday lost but -0.7%, its MoneyFlow (a favoured leading indicator) was the most negative since 13 September 2022, (following which within 21 days, the Spoo fell as much as 383 points); and despite yesterday’s move lower, the S&P remains “textbook overbought” now through 33 consecutive trading days. Q2 Earnings Season through yesterday finds 64 S&P constituents having thus far reported with 55% having done better year-over-year: the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E is 56.8x. The Econ Baro takes a breather following its negative week.

Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are both the Bond and Spoo, and session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The S&P 500 is frightfully overcooked, its settle yesterday (4566) recording a 32nd straight day as “textbook overbought” (a combination of BollBands, Stos and RSI); indeed looking back through better than 40 years of daily data, such string is into rarefied air. Specific to the Spoo (4587) — when it finally lets go — structural support runs from 4498 down to 4411. Early on in Q2 Earnings Season, what had started robustly is starting to sag, thus far with only 58% of S&P constituents having improved their bottom lines over those of a year ago. ‘Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro (which wraps its week today), incoming metrics including July’s Philly Fed Index, plus June’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators.

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 yesterday completed its 31st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, and the Spoo by Market Values (in real-time) is +180 points above its smooth valuation line.; the “live” P/E of the S&P is (futs-adj’d) 59.1x. By Market Rhythms on a 10-test swing basis, our two best studies are Copper’s 4-hr. MACD and the Euro’s daily MoneyFlow. More housing data arrives for the Econ Baro via June’s Housing Starts/Permits.

With the S&P 500 having just completed its 30th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”, today finds at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their Neutral Zones; none are below same, and volatility is light. The five primary BEGOS are now all in positive correlation, typical of what we’ve seen historically when “money is flowing into everything” during Dollar weakness. Moreover by Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” for all eight BEGOS components are rising. Q2 Earnings Season very early on appears off to a better start than in several years past. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro as due is July’s NAHB index, June’s Retail Sales plus IndProd/CapUtil, and May’s Business Inventories.

‘Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets. At present, the Swiss Franc is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; the latter’s cac volume is rolling from August into September. Session volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having already traced 80% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update has more conviction that the recent low (1901 futs) may stand as the parabolic Short trend can unwind within a couple of weeks; too, the overwhelmingly extreme valuation of the S&P 500 again is emphasized: its futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 58.1x and the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +156 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Bara awaits July’s NY State Empire Index.

‘Tis looking lower early on for the BEGOS Markets: the Bond, Euro, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil are all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility is again light, (save for the non-BEGOS Yen which already has traced 96% of its EDTR [see Market Ranges for the BEGOS Markets]). The S&P 500 is now 28 days “textbook overbought”, the live P/E (fut’s adj’d) now an unconscionable 58.6x. By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is +174 points above its smooth valuation line. By Market Trends, Silver’s surge has rotated its linreg trend from negative to positive. The Econ Baro completes its week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey and June’s Ex/Im Prices.

Following an unusual session wherein 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets (save for Oil) achieved their “high if an up day”, thus far today we’ve (at present) both the Swiss Franc and Silver above their Neutral Zones; none of the other components are below same, and volatility is light. On June’s “slowing” inflation news, the Dollar Index traded down to its lowest level since April 2022; ’tis at present 100.070. Gold continues to ascend in sync with its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends), thus far low-to-high this week from 1918 to 1968. The well-overvalued S&P 500 completed its 27th day as “textbook overbought”, the “live” P/E (fut’s adj’d) now 57.4x. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s PPI and Treasury Budget.

The Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above their respective neutral Zones for today. None of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is basically light. Our page for the S&P’s MoneyFlow shows as just perceptively weakening a tad even as the Index has risen both days so far this week; and in real-time, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to descend; by its Market Profile we see Spoo trading resistance at 4485 with support initially at 4445. As for the Bond which may well be affected by today’s CPI reading for June, there is Market Profile support at 124^00; however, should inflation have increased over May’s pace, the “low if a down day” for the Bond appears as 123^09. Late in the session comes the Fed’s Tan Tome.

A firm Tuesday start for the BEGOS Markets, all eight components in the black, and save for Oil and the Spoo, all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today. At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” confirmed closing above their -80% axis, suggestive of higher price levels near-term. On a 10-swing test basis our two best Market Rhythms are currently the MoneyFlow studies for 8-hr. Copper and the daily Euro. The S&P’s “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 55.6x and the yield 1.540%; that for the 3-Month U.S. T-Bill is 5.225%. Yesterday marked the S&P’s 25th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; but the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to work lower. “Follow the Blues…”

The BEGOS Markets begin the week on a downbeat with the Swiss Franc, Copper and the Spoo all at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update suggests the worst for price (1901 futs) within the current weekly parabolic Short trend may have been realized, even as the Fed looks to continue its rate raises; too, we list 10 viable crash catalysts for the stock market. Even as the Spoo is lower today, in real-time ’tis 117 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); meanwhile, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are accelerating their decline. For the Econ Baro we’ve May’s Wholesale Inventories, with Consumer Credit late in the session.

Following yesterday’s significant leap in ADP’s Employment level, the BEGOS Markets are quiet, all eight components at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today, the Econ Baro awaiting Labor’s Payrolls data; thus, volatility is light across the board. Even as the S&P 500 recorded another down day, it still remains “textbook overbought”; for the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time notably dropping lower thus far today; and by the Spoo’s Market Profile, much of its “gap” from 4485-4421 was hoovered yesterday on the heels of the strong ADP number, the obvious notion being the Fed shall continue to press the rate rise pedal. Mind our Earnings Season page as that for Q2 is now underway.

The Spoo is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; volatility is again light-to-moderate; of note, whilst not yet a BEGOS component , the yen has already traced 95% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges for the BEGOS Markets). Even as the S&P 500 has showed some mild weakness, it nonetheless is now ” textbook overbought” through 22 consecutive trading days; by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +190 points above its smooth valuation line; and at Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” continue to creep lower. The Econ Baro’s busy day includes June’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus May’s Trade Deficit.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, volatility now light-to-moderate. The following components are at present below their session’s Neutral Zones: the Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; Oil is above same. In assessing Market Magnets, prices are essentially in sync with the entire bunch, save for the Spoo being some 58 points “high”. By Market Rhythms, on a 10-swing test basis the most consistent is Copper’s 8hr. MoneyFlow, whilst on a 24-swing test basis the leader is the Euro’s 15mn. MoneyFlow. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Factory Orders; late in the session come the FOMC’s Minutes from their 13-14 June meeting.

Given the StateSide holiday, today begins a BEGOS Markets’ two-day session for Wednesday settlement. At present, Gold is the sole component outside (above) its Neutral Zone for the session; overall, volatility expectedly is light. The S&P 500 pauses with its “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at 56.1x and Q2 Earnings Season about to commence. By “textbook technicals” the S&P is now overbought through 21 consecutive trading days (i.e. one trading month); the Spoo has yet to succumb to its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below their +80% axis a week ago; and in real-time, the Spoo by Market Values is +229 points above its smooth valuation line. All components enter holiday trading halts starting between 17:00-18:30 GMT until 00:00 GMT.

The EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets’ weak links to start the week, both the Euro itself and Swiss Franc at present below today’s Neutral Zone. The balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Despite Gold’s ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend, price has initially bounced precisely from our downside target (1893 by spot) as described in The Gold Update; too by Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” are (in real-time) giving the earliest suggestion of bottoming; and by Market Values, price (also in real-time) is -58 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to June’s ISM(Mfg) Index and May’s Construction Spending. The Spoo’s session is abbreviated ahead of tomorrow’s StateSide holiday.

At present Copper is the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light, again save for Copper which has thus far traced 62% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Copper’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) in breaking the below their +80% level have since seen price drop a full $0.10/pound, lending to why the Blues are a favoured signal; similarly however, those for the Spoo have yet to see price crack. Gold has (at least for the moment) bounced precisely off the 1893 spot low we cited some weeks ago; too, the current August cac has reached down to 1901: more in tomorrow’s 711th Edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro completes its week notably with May’s Personal Income/Spending, plus the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator: Core PCE Prices.

The Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc all are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for the Euro which has already traced in excess of 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold has traded down to 1911 (Aug futs) which is toward the neighbourhood of how low we anticipate price may go (per recent editions of the Gold Update); on a spot basis, mind the 1893 level for support; by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) -72 points below its smooth valuation line. Included in today’s metrics for the Econ Baro are May’s Pending Home Sales and the final revision to Q1 GDP.

The Euro at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Along with Copper yesterday, the Spoo also confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) settling below their +80% axis; again this leading indicator reliably points to lower Spoo levels near-term. For the S&P 500 itself, the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is 55.6x, and the Index has now been “textbook overbought” for 17 consecutive trading days; indeed by Market Values, the Spoo is 193 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, the latter’s cac volume having moved from July into September, as shall that for the white metal these next two days. BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, save for that of the red metal which already has traced 73% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges): as anticipated yesterday, Copper’s “Baby Blues” have now provisionally dropped below their +80% level, which if confirmed at settle today suggest lower price levels in the offing. For the Econ Baro we’ve June’s Consumer Confidence plus May’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are beginning the week within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price becoming more in sync with its ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend, with a test of the low 1900s, high 1800s in the offing. At Market Trends, mind Copper’s “Baby Blues” as they begin rolling over: a confirmation of them settling below their +80% level would suggest lower price levels to follow.

The Bond is at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility already is moderate-to-robust, the Euro thus far having traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo’s daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping from Long to Short; the last dozen such ShortSide runs have “averaged” down moves of -100 points, suggestive that by the Spoo’s Market Profile we can see a test of the 4319 apex, (current price is 4399). And again in checking the Spoo versus its Market Value, price in real-time is +222 points above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro has concluded its winning week.

Silver is again (per this time of day) below its Neutral Zone, as is the Spoo; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, and volatility is light ahead of FedChair Powell’s stint in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Even as the S&P finally is coming off exorbitantly high levels, it nonetheless remains “textbook overbought” now throughout the past 13 trading sessions. And specific to the Spoo, it (in real-time) is +227 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too, the Euro is nearly +0.02 points above same. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include Q1’s Current Account, plus May’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. lagging given our leading Econ Baro) Indicators.

Only Silver is at present trading below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday slipped a bit (-0.5%), its MoneyFlow equivalent gained a full +1.0%, the differential across our three time frames as noted on the MoneyFlow page. June’s strong housing data as reported on both Monday and Tuesday works in the FOMC’s favour to vote for another rate hike come their 26 July Policy Statement. By Market Rhythms, the most consistent on both the 10-swing test and 24-swing test basss is Oil’s 15-min. MACD. FedChair Powell commences his semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee.

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues with all eight components in the red, including at present both the Swiss Franc and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones; volatility has ramped up to moderate across the board. The S&P 500 (amongst the overvaluation citings herein mentioned of late as well as in The Gold Update) has been “textbook overbought” these last 11 trading days, and “extremely” so for the past four sessions. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 54.7x and the yield 1.538%; (the U.S. three-month T-Bill yield is 5.065%). Specific to the Spoo by its Market Profile, there is trading support at 4416, and then failing that, in the 4334-4319 range. At Market Trends, save for Oil, the balance of the linreg trends all are positive. The Econ Baro looks to May’s Housing Starts/Permits.

Silver is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is expectedly light given StateSide physical bourses being closed. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal as essentially going nowhere, which given the weekly parabolic trend being Short may deemed as mildly bullish, albeit the low 1900 area remain viable; moreover, the missive reinforces the dangerously high/overvalued level of the S&P 500 both fundamentally and technically. Indeed by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) 310 points above its smooth valuation line, the last such extreme being in last August upon which the S&P 500 then swiftly fell 700 points from 4300 to 3600. The Econ Baro starts its week with June’s NAHB Housing Index.