PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

Whereas at this time yesterday both precious metals were above their Neutral Zones, today currently Gold and Silver are below them; the other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is pushing toward moderate, the geo-political impetus of yesterday having subdued. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on at 10-test basis our best through yesterday are the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics and Swiss Franc’s 1hr MACD; on a 24-test basis we’ve Silver’s 2hr Parabolics and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (as noted yesterday after a long stint as negative) have finally risen above their 0% axis, the linreg trend having rotated to positive. Today’s incoming metric for the Econ Baro is September’s ADP Employment data.

Both Gold and Silver are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light. By correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Euro and Gold. At Market Trends, the Bond’s linreg has rotated from positive to negative, as has been the case for Oil since 23 July; the balance of the BEGOS bunch still sport positive linregs with fairly firm “Baby Blues” for trend consistency. Q3 commences with the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 at 42.5x and the yield 1.283% vs. 4.498% on the risk-free 3mo U.S. T-Bill. The Econ Baro looks to September’s ISM(Mfg) Index and August’s Construction Spending.

Both Copper and Oil are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility runs from light-to-robust, Copper notably already having raced 151% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update — despite the yellow metal’s recent run to record highs — cautions near-term overvaluation vis-à-vis Gold’s Market Value, price (in real-time) +141 points above its smooth valuation line; the missive also issues our multi-catalyst stock market warning. ‘Tis the final trading day of Q3, the S&P 500 sporting the “live” P/E of 42.3x and the Spoo (in real-time) now +220 points above its smooth valuation line, (see Market Values for all five primary BEGOS Markets’ like valuations). The Econ Baro begins its week with September’s Chi PMI.

The Swiss Franc plus all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Maintaining an eye on the Market Values (in real-time) of the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is basically trading at its smooth valuation line, the Euro is nearly +0.01 points “high”, Gold +156 points “high”, Oil -6.03 points “low”, and the Spoo +246 points “high”. Per Market Profiles for those five, the most heavily-traded prices of the last fortnight are: the Bond 125^00, the Euro 1.1160, Gold 2607, Oil 71.30 and the Spoo 5778. The Econ Baro concludes the week with metrics including August’s Personal Income/Spending and the “Fed-favoured” inflation read via Core PCE Prices.

Both Copper and the Spoo are on the up-move, each at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; Oil is below same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility spans from light for the Bond to robust for Oil, the latter having already traced 131% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil is the sole component with a negative linreg (see Market Trends), albeit the consistency of such downside trend is waning as its “Baby Blues” are into their 11th session of rising; too, by Market Values in real-time, Oil (now 67.67) is -6.14 points below its smooth valuation line; and by Market Profiles, Oil’s two notably overhead volume price resistors are 69.70 and 71.30. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include August’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the final revision to Q2 GDP.

We’ve weakness this morning in Silver and Copper, both at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. As to Market Rhythms, our leaders for pure swing consistency are currently (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, the Euro’s 15mn Moneyflow, and the 2hr MACD for both Silver and the Swiss Franc; too (on a 24-test basis) we’ve the Bond’s 15mn MACD, the Swiss Franc’s 6hr MACD, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. The S&P 500 is now six days “textbook overbought” and the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 42.4x. The Econ Baro awaits August’s New Home Sales.

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; however, overall volatility is pushing well toward moderate, and specific to the red metal, it already has traced 107% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), plus (now 4.4145) price has moved up above its 10-day Market Profile, for which key volume-price supports therein are 4.3450 and 4.3000; too by Market Trends, Copper’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are smoothly rising. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) of the S&P 500 is 42.2x. And today the week gets going for the Econ Baro with September’s Consumer Confidence.

We start the week to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal’s further flying to new highs, but does question the Fed’s -50bp rate cut versus our anticipated -25bp move; therein cited as well is the unsupportive monetary inflow of late into the otherwise record-setting S&P 500, (as too was “X’d” [@deMeadvillePro] this past Friday): mind the S&P 500 MoneyFlow page. Specific to the Spoo, in real-time ’tis +240 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of the week’s batch of 11 incoming metrics, including the “Fed-favoured” gauge of inflation — Core PCE Prices — come Friday.

The Swiss Franc along with the Metals Triumvirate are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P 500 is 42.6x (+68% above its inception a dozen years ago) and the annualized yield 1.286% vs. 4.593% on risk-less 3mo U.S. dough; in the last 10 trading days, the S&P has swung from being mildly “textbook oversold” to now moderately “textbook overbought”: indeed through the 181 trading days year-to-date, the S&P has completed 113 of them (62%) in some degree of being near-term technically overbought as excess post-COVID monetary infusion ($7T) continues permeates risk-full equities. The somewhat “recovering” Econ Baro is at highest oscillative level since mid-June.

We were wrong about the Fed, it having cut its Funds Rates -50bp rather than by our -25bp assertion; and as is our wont, when we’re flat out wrong, we fess up; (more on the Fed in Saturday’s upcoming edition of The Gold Update). At present, the three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, plus Oil and the Spoo all are above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility looks to be fully robust by session’s end. As to current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the most so is positive between Oil and the Spoo; (we view such correlations as important for hedging between two markets). The Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics that include September’s Philly Fed Index, August’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, plus Q2’s Current Account Deficit.

We’ve at present the Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zone whilst below same are Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, there are four to currently highlight on a 10-test basis: Oil’s 2hr Price Oscillator, Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, the Bond’s 12hr Parabolics, and Gold’s 1hr MACD; for the 24-test basis, the one standout is the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro we await August’s Housing Start/Permits. And ’tis “Fed Day”, the FOMC releasing its Policy Statement at 18:00 GMT: our assertion is a -25bp FedFunds cut from the present 5.25%-5.50% target range to 5.00%-5.25%; similarly priced in for that now are the October FedFundsFutures.

At present all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is quite light ahead of a bevy of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, namely September’s NAHB Housing Index, August’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus July’s Business Inventories. Going ’round the Market Values’ horn for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve: the Bond better than +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.12 points “high”, Gold +112 points “high”, Oil -5.11 points “low” and the Spoo +200 points “high”. The best current directional correlation amongst those five is positive between the Euro and Gold. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from October into that for November. And the FOMC begins its two-day meeting.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all begin the week at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update highlight’s the yellow metal’s fresh All-Time High and the comparably firmness of moneyflow into the Gold’s futures contracts year-to-date; wariness however is cited as the a dearth of trading volume leading to these most recent highs per the Market Profile; the Update also reiterates our sense that the FOMC on Wednesday shall vote for just a -25bp (not -50bp) FedFunds rate reduction, especially given the upticks in August’s inflation measures. The Spoo’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for December. And the Econ Baro awaits September’s NY State Empire Index.

Gold both yesterday and today has recorded its first All-Time Highs since last so doing on 20 August (then 2570), the newest high now 2599. Gold at present is above its Neutral Zone for today, as is the Bond and Swiss Franc; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. By Market Values (in real-time) Gold is +102 points above its smooth valuation line; more of course in tomorrow’s 774th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The S&P 500’s four-day rally (which would start toward a fifth day given at present the Spoo’s price vis-à-vis fair value) has pushed the “live” P/E up to a futs-adj’d reading of 41.7x. The Econ Baro concludes its week with September’s UofM Sentiment Survey along with August’s Ex/Im Prices.

Gold, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (as anticipated in Tuesday’s note) confirmed dropping below their 0% axis, the linreg having rotated from positive to negative; similar is the case for the Euro, whereas that for Oil has been negative for some seven weeks. Looking at Market Profiles, the current prices of the Bond, Gold and Silver are all very near their most commonly traded levels of the past fortnight. And for the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include August’s wholesale inflation via the PPI, plus the month’s Treasury Deficit.

At present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. Oil yesterday traded down to a 16-month low (65.27). By Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis for pure swing consistency, we’ve for the Bond both its 6hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, plus the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Price Oscillator. Market correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have deteriorated such that currently ’tis “each market for itself” rather than any notable continuity pairings (positive or negative). The Econ Baro looks to retail inflation via August’s CPI.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility to this point across the BEGOS spectrum is quite light, with nothing due for the Econ Baro. With respect to yesterday’s +1.2% gain for the S&P 500, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points comparatively gained just +0.4%: such weakness ought bring further near-term selling for the Index itself. Too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time down to teasing the 0% axis: confirmation of penetrating that axis to the downside shall mean the linreg trend having rotated from positive to negative. Today’s EDTR (see market Ranges) for the Spoo is 80 points. As for Market Rhythm pure swing consistency, currently the best for the Spoo on a 10-test basis is its daily MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis its daily Parabolics. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the S&P is 39.9x.

The week begins finding only Silver and Oil are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst above are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update notes the stodgy state of late for the yellow metal, but the broader outlook by trend firmly positive. Oil on Friday traded below (to 67.17) last December’s low (of 67.71): by Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is -9.01 points below its smooth valuation line, the lowest divergence in at least a year; too, Oil remains the sole BEGOS component with a negative linreg (see Market Trends), although — save for the Swiss Franc — the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other markets. The Econ Baro starts its week with July’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light, with StateSide August Payrolls in the balance for the Econ Baro. The Spoo (inclusive of today thus far) has made a fourth consecutive daily “lower low”: again as noted yesterday (and, too, as “X’d” [@deMeadvillePro]), the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” having dropped below the +80% axis (see Market Trends) points to still lower price levels; at Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) crossing beneath its smooth valuation line, also indicative of price further falling. ‘Tis been another somewhat stodgy week for Gold: more on that in tomorrow’s 773rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is quite light, within the context that most EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are well-elevated above their narrower levels of last Spring. By Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency yesterday confirmed having moved below their key +80% axis: there’ve been seven prior occurrences of such from a year ago-to-day, the median downside follow-through within 21 days being -48 points, but the average thereto -202 points. Looking at correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Bond and Euro. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Svc) Index, plus the revisions to Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The S&P 500 at the moment would open down another -0.5% “as the selling continues”: obviously foretelling all this have been weak earnings, unsupportive MoneyFlow and strained “textbook overbought” conditions. For Fib followers, from the S&P’s 05 August low to its 26 August high, and initial Golden Ratio retracement (-38.2%) would bring 5450 and such complete Golden Ratio retracement (-61.8%) 5324. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve both the Bond’s 6hr and 12hr Moneyflows, whilst on a 24-test basis are Silver’s 8hr Parabolics, the Yen’s (albeit not yet a BEGOS component) daily Price Oscillator, and Oil’s 1hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro awaits July’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. Late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, wherein at present we’ve the Swiss Franc below its Neutral Zone, as are the elements of the Metals Triumvirate; none of the other components are above same, and volatility has expectedly moved to firmly moderate. Going ’round the horn at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is essentially right on its smooth valuation line, as almost is the Euro; Gold is +53 points “high”, Oil -3.92 points “low” and the Spoo +132 points “high”. Were the StateSide stock market to open at this instant, the S&P 500 would drop -8 points to 5640, albeit just -30 points below its all-time high of 5670 (16 July). And for the Econ Baro we’ve August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.

The first of the BEGOS Markets’ two-day session (given the StateSide holiday) finds at present the Bond, Silver, Copper and Oil all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS components are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver notably already having traced 82% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to last week as being the yellow metal’s second-narrowest trading week (percentage distance between high and low) year-to-date, and the bizarre notion of firm Q2 GDP growth even as the Econ Baro plummeted throughout that reporting period. The S&P 500 is now a dozen days “textbook overbought” on weak MoneyFlow, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 40.7x and yield 1.304%; of note, the yield on the 3mo T-Bill has finally slipped sub-5% to 4.968%.

At present we’ve Gold below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light. With Friday in the balance, Gold otherwise is putting in one of the year’s more narrow weeks; still, we’ll see where Gold stands overall in tomorrow’s 772nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As “X’d” (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, we remain wary of the S&P 500’s weak MoneyFlow (per its page) even as the Index has rallied through much of August: too, the S&P is now 11 day’s “textbook overbought”; and the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is now 40.8x. The Econ Baro wraps its week with metrics including August’s Chi PMI along with July’s Personal Income/Spending plus the month’s “Fed-favoured” inflation read of Core PCE Prices.

A reversal of what we saw ’round this time yesterday: now the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper are all above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Looking at Market Profiles, the most dominantly-traded prices (mildly rounded) across the past 10 trading days are as follows: Bond 124^08; Euro 1.1130; Swiss Franc 1.1770; Gold 2543; Silver 29.950; Copper 4.2300, Oil 73.20; Spoo 5636. As to Oil, by Market Trends the linreg still has not rotated from negative to positive; that measure for all the other BEGOS components is positive. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include July’s Pending Home Sales and notably the second peek at Q2 GDP: our sense is the latter shall be revised lower given the significant plummet of the Baro throughout the Q2 reporting period (May/June/July) coupled with the “surprise” (not to us) decline in July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

A more robust start to the day for BEGOS Markets: we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is moderate. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading on the 10-test basis are the Bond’s 6hr and 12hr Moneyflows, plus Oil’s 30mn EMA and 1hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve Oil’s 30mn and 2hr Parabolics, the Yen’s (not officially a BEGOS Market) daily Price Oscillator, and Silver’s 8hr Parabolics. Too for Silver, its cac volume is rolling from September into that for December, as is the case over the next day or so for the Bond. In terms of correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is negative between the Euro and Oil. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

Just as was the case ’round this time yesterday, Copper again is the only BEGOS Market currently outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone, with session volatility again light. The course of Market Trends throughout the Dollar’s recent decline has sported positive linregs for all the BEGOS Components, save for Oil: however, the latter’s”Baby Blues” of trend consistency are nudging up to the 0% axis such that in a day or two, all eight Markets may all be tilted to the upside, specific to the linreg metric. As well, by Market Values, four of the five primary BEGOS Components are above their respective smooth valuation line, with Oil just barely below same (-1.37 points with the EDTR by Market Ranges now 2.36 points). Too, Oil yesterday confirmed price having moved above its Market Magnet. For the Econ Baro today we’ve August’s Consumer Confidence.

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light and by Market Ranges, EDTRs (save for that of the Euro) continue to narrow, albeit are (in some cases) above average ranges looking back a year. The Gold Update addresses price by Market Values as being “high” (in real-time by +113 points); also noted are the Dollar’s demise post-Powell and the unsupportive MoneyFlow beneath the S&P 500’s recent rally, the Index also now seven days “textbook overbought”; the “live” futs-adj’d P/E is 42.0x, some +68% above its inception a dozen years ago. As well for Gold, should the “usual” post-All-Time High selling gather some momentum, the 2375 level — our forecast high for this year and essentially a center-piece of structural support — wouldn’t be an untoward landing area. Copper’s cac volume has rolled from September into that for December. The Econ Baro begins its week with July’s Durable Orders.

Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; otherwise, BEGOS Market’s volatility continues as quite light, similar to that of the prior two sessions to this point. Looking at the five primary components vis-à-vis their Market Values (in real-time), we’ve the Bond nearly +4 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.022 points “high”, Gold +102 points “high”, Oil -6.05 points “low”, and the Spoo +85 points “high”. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 40.8x and the yield 1.332% vs. the 3mo T-Bill’s risk-free 5.025%; too, the S&P is now six days “textbook overbought”. Gold appears en route to completing a down week. albeit with FedHead Powell’s Jackson Hole address in the balance, on verra; more, of course, tomorrow in Gold Update No. 771. And simultaneous with the Chairman’s speech at 14:00 GMT comes the release of July’s New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is again quite light. Gold, after having further achieved another All-Time High (2570) on Tuesday, is currently 2541 and, in fact, is mildly net lower to this point of the week; again the current edition of The Gold Update cites notable price pullbacks so far this year following All-Time Highs. Looking at Market Rhythms, for pure swing consistency on 10-test basis, topping the list is the Bond’s 12hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis the leader again is Oil’s 2hr Parabolics. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include July’s Existing Home Sales.

Just the Euro is at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light, and EDTRs (see Market Ranges) whilst elevated are nonetheless falling, (save for that of the Euro). Looking ’round the Market Profiles horn, save for Oil, the other seven BEGOS components are trading high relative to their pricing across the past fortnight. Too, by Market Trends, again save for Oil, the seven other markets are in positive linreg. And in turn, the Dollar has been continuing its slide since mid-year: the DX high thus far in 2024 is 106.380 (01 May) but today ’tis been traded as low at 101.163, (near the year’s bottom thus far of 101.030 set back on 03 Jan). The Econ Baro remains quiet; and the FOMC’s Minutes from the 30-31 July Meeting come due.

The Euro, Copper and Oil are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility to this point of the session is light relative to yesterday ’round the same time. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Euro. Oil’s Market Magnet is being pierced (in real-time) to the downside, suggestive of still lower levels: currently 72.98, Oil has made a home in the 70s through much of this year; 72-20-72.00 shows as near-term Market Profile support; price was briefly sub-70 this past 03 January; and Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its 2hr MACD and (on a 24-test basis) its 2hr Parabolics; thus 2hr Oil seems a reasonable study of which to take note.

The week begins finding both the Euro and Swiss Franc at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, but volatility already may be deemed as moderate: again, mind the Market Ranges page to maintain context for current ETDR readings. The Gold Update acknowledges the yellow metal’s new All-Time High, indeed to up to 2550: characterized therein are the price pullbacks that have beset Gold upon making fresh highs thus far this year; and by Market Values (in real-time), Gold is +144 points above its smooth valuation line. Q2 Earnings Season has concluded with 70% of S&P 500 constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q2 of a year ago: that is a comparably above average performance; ‘course, the “live” P/E at 40.8x remains the unsustainable issue. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the Econ Baro with just four metrics due, beginning today with July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

BEGOS Markets’ volatility is very light thus far with just the Euro at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone. The S&P 500’s recovery rally off of what had been a “textbook oversold” condition has been marred by weak monetary inflow per our MoneyFlow page and notably therein the 5-day and 21-day measures; too, the overall low level of earnings support now finds the “live” P/E of the S&P at a futs-adj’d 41.4x. Looking at Market Values, deviations which stand out (in real-time) are the Bond being nearly +5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro nearly +0.02 points “high”, and Gold +103 points “high”, the latter putting in quite a narrow week (with today in the balance); more of course in tomorrow’s 770th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro looks to August’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus July’s Housing Starts/Permits. And ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season, which has been above-average by year-over-year comparison, but as noted broadly is weak given the sky-high price of equities.

‘Tis a significant session for economic data, the Econ Baro due to receive 10 incoming metrics: thus ’tis not surprising to find all eight BEGOS Markets at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today with volatility to this point very light. Going ’round the Market Profiles horn, the most dominantly-traded prices for the past 10 trading days are: Bond 122^30, Euro 1.094, Swiss Franc 1.161, Gold 2490, Silver 27.20, Copper 4.040, Oil (Oct) 72.20, and Spoo 5369; note that Oil’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for October. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Gold and Oil. And notable metrics for the aforementioned Baro include August’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index; July’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil; plus June’s Business Inventories.

Copper is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is continues quiet given the hour. The S&P 500 yesterday fully unwound what had been a 13-session run of being “textbook oversold”, albeit in the process its “live” is now (futs-adj’d) 40.2x and the yield 1.348%; the 3mo U.S. T-Bill still yields an annualized 5.053%. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, topping the stack on both our 10-test and 24-test bases is Oil’s 1hr Parabolics; Oil’s trading range (closing basis) for at least the past three months is between 73 and 83, with present price of 78.94 measuring -1.43 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Gold yesterday came within 21 points of its All-Time High (2338 basis December): Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 42 points. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s CPI.

We’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility again is relatively quite light given the recent expansion in EDTRs (see Market Ranges); for yesterday, the Spoo’s EDTR was 120 points, yet the actual range just 40 points, typical of the “norm” last Winter. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are (in real-time) curling up above their -80% axis, (mind those too for both Silver and Oil), the “rule” there being a “Buy” signal if confirmed by day’s end: specific to the Spoo, the mid-5400s to mid-5500s appear structurally resistive; the most consistent pure swing Market Rhythm for the Spoo has been its 12-hr Moneyflow, (for profit targeting, see too its currently being listing on the Market Rhythms page). The Econ Baro awaits July’s PPI.

We start the week with just the Swiss Franc at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light, again within the context that by Market Ranges, EDTRs have notably expanded of late: for the Spoo, ’tis now 120 points. Too, by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time)-195 points below its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is “textbook oversold” through 12 consecutive trading days; the “live” P/E however remains exceedingly high at a futs-adj’d (i.e. in real-time) 38.8x. The Gold Update takes to task the hysteria of the “FinMedia & Herd”, specifically with respect to the selling of stocks a week ago: in the missive, the logarithmic chart of the S&P perfectly makes the point. The Econ Baro gets packed with 18 metrics this week, beginning today with July’s Treasury Budget; and this is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season.

Both the Bond and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light. The rally in the Spoo nonetheless still finds it by Market Values (in real-time) as -223 points below the smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is now 11 days “textbook oversold” even as the Index gained +2.3% yesterday. With one week remaining in Q2 Earnings season, 424 S&P constituents have reported of which 70% bettered their bottom lines of Q2 a year ago: that is a wee bit better than average year-over-year improvement; however, the big bane for the S&P is its excessively high P/E, the “live” (futs-adj’d) reading at 39.7x. Gold remains down for the week, although now at 2457, price is well off the intraweek low of 2404; by its Market Profile, 2435 is the yellow metal’s key trading support by volume; tomorrow brings our 769th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

At present, none of the BEGOS Markets are below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have of late been expanding: indeed that today for the Spoo is 116 points. Gold’s daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative: per the current Market Rhythms list, that study for the yellow metal has profited by at least $2,600/cac (regardless of signaling Long or Short) for nine of the past 10 such crossovers; by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) +60 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst on Tuesday price moved below its Market Magnet; a move lower from here (2433) into the upper-to-mid 2300s wouldn’t be untoward. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week today with metrics including June’s Wholesale Inventories.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Market’s volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc notably already having traded 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For the S&P 500, just as monetary outflow was relatively “thin” during the three-day selloff, so yesterday too was it “thin” for the rally: mind the MoneyFlow page. Looking at Market Rhythms, the recent erratic movements have brought a bit less pure swing consistency to our 10-test basis studies; however on a 24-test basis we’ve five standouts at present: Silver’s 8hr Parabolics, Oil’s 15mn Price Oscillator, the Spoo’s daily Parabolics, Copper’s 2hr Parabolics, and the Yen’s (not yet formally a BEGOS component) daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro late in the session we’ve June’s Consumer Credit.

As is typically led by the MoneyFlow Page (see The S&P 500), were RTH to commence at this instant the S&P would open +74 points (+1.4%) as — despite the selling these past three sessions — the monetary outflow has not been as severe as the change in the Index itself; indeed, the S&P is now eight days “textbook oversold” despite it still being vastly overvalued by weak earnings, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 36.7x At present for today, we’ve the Bond, Swiss Franc and Metals Triumvirate all below their Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo (and hence by “fair value” the notion of that “up” opening). At Market Values given components flailing about, here are the real-time deviations from their respective smooth valuation lines: the Bond shows as nearly +6 points “high”, the Euro +0.014 points “high”, Gold +68 points “high”, Oil nearly -8 points “low”, and the Spoo -301 points “low”. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Trade Deficit.

The Spoo is sufficiently lower (-2.7%) such that were RTH to begin at this moment, the S&P itself would open -3.1%. BEGOS Markets’ volatility is robust, with at present the Bond and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and Spoo. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal as last week having made a “FATH” (Faux All-Time High) resulting form the August-to-December cac roll: by the latter, the All-Time High per December is now 2538 (17 July). Looking at Market Trends, the “safe-haven” BEGOS components of the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are in 21-day positive linreg; the other five markets are in negative linreg. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the rather decimated Econ Baro: just five metrics are due beginning today with July’s ISM(Svc) Index.

The S&P 500’s intraday high-to-low percentage loss yesterday of -2.8% was its worst since 02 November 2022; the session’s -164 intraday points loss was the worst since 05 May 2022; whilst the Index is now five days “textbook oversold”, it remains vastly overvalued per the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E now 37.7x. At present we’ve the Euro and Metals Triumvirate all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo by Market Values, ’tis (in real-time) -161 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold has recorded another “faux” All-Time High (2513) by the so-called “continuous contract” which is now that for December (see yesterday’s Commentary). And the Econ Baro looks to July’s Payrolls data and June’s Factory Orders.

Gold by its “continuous front month” cac has reached 2500 to an All-Time High so far in this session of 2503: again this incorporates the robust additional premium per the rollover from the August cac to that for December, (for which 2538 would become a “true” ATH). Meanwhile at present, we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. By Market Ranges, the Spoo’s EDTR is 80 points, its highest reading in better than a year. Post-Fed, the “live” P/E of the S&P has moved back above 40x. And today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include July’s ISM(Mfg) Index, June’s Construction Spending, and the initial read of Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The final day of this month brings the FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT release): were the Fed to react to the steeply falling Econ Baro, they’d cut; rather to the “oblivious” GDP, they’ll stand pat. At present we’ve the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and Spoo (+1.2%) all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is firmly moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms for swing consistency, leading the 10-test basis is the Yen’s (not yet officially a BEGOS component) 2hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis instead the Euro’s 2hr MACD. For the Econ Baro ahead of the Fed are July’s ADP Employment and Chi PMI, June’s Pending Home Sales, and Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

Both the Swiss Franc and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Q2 Earnings Season is not quite halfway completed for the S&P 500 constituents: of the 191 reports thus far, 69% are better than a year ago, which (ex-COVID quarters) is average for year-over-year improvement; ‘course the overall “live” S&P P/E of 39.8x remains significantly under-supported by the overall level of earnings, especially given the risk-free 5.147% 3mo T-Bill yield. At Market Trends, save for the “safe-haven” Bond and Swiss Franc, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency for the other six BEGOS components all are falling. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s Consumer Confidence. And the FOMC begins its two-day meeting toward tomorrow’s Policy Statement.

The week is underway with at present both Oil and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the new parabolic Long trend as having struggled through its first two weeks: when this has happened historically, it does not fare well for the yellow metal over the near term; presently 2390, Gold is just +16 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); we think the 2300s ought hold their ground, however the weekly parabolic flip to Short would come (per this week) at 2308; note as well that Gold’s August cac volume is moving into that for December, with +47 points of fresh premium. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 14 metrics due as the week unfolds, plus we’ve the FOMC’s Policy Statement come Wednesday.

Only the Spoo is at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, and BEGOS Markets volatility is pushing toward moderate. The S&P 500 concluded yesterday as mildly “textbook oversold”, albeit its massive overvaluation vis-à-vis earnings remains the ultimate concern (the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.3x). Still, by Market Values, the Spoo (in real time) is -107 points “low” per its smooth valuation line. Gold’s weekly parabolic trend looks to conclude its second week as Long even as both weeks have been net down for the yellow metal: more on that in tomorrow’s 767th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including June’s Personal Income/Spending along with the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices.

At present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond and Swiss Franc, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust, the two precious metals already having traced 100% or more of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The -2.3% decline in the S&P 500 yesterday was the Index’s weakest session since 15 December 2022; however per our leading indicator Moneyflow, the selling to a degree lacked the change in the Index, (suggestive of -1.8% change rather than -2.3%); regardless, the S&P remains vastly overvalued vis-à-vis its earnings generation, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 39.5x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s Durable Orders, plus the first peek at Q2 GDP, which — given the stark decline in the Baro — may be worse than consensus.