PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

Given the StateSide holiday, the BEGOS Markets are in a two-day session (for Friday Settle) with the Swiss Franc at present above its Neutral Zone whilst Silver is below same; not surprisingly, volatility is light, the Spoo having thus far just traced 13% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Looking at Market Rhythms on a purely swing basis, our 10-test group for most consistency is currently the Euro’s 2hr MACD, Oil’s 60mn Parabolics, and Silver’s 15mn Moneyflow; for the 24-test group, we’ve two for the Spoo by its 4hr Moneyflow and daily Parabolics. With the S&P 500 at an all-time closing high (5537), its futs-adj’d “live” P/E is now 43.3x. Tomorrow is a full trading day for US equities, preceded for the “free-fall” Econ Baro by June’s Payrolls data.

The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today; above same are both Silver and Copper, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light ahead of early closures for the Spoo and S&P 500. The latter settled above 5500 for the first time yesterday, albeit two recent days posted intra-day highs above that level: the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of the S&P is 43.0x with Q2 Earnings Season commencing next week; the S&P yields 1.324% versus the US 3mo T-bill’s annualized 5.228% Gold is basically staying buoyed above its key Market Profile support of 2338 even as near-term technicals suggest lower prices. The Econ Baro receives a bevy of metrics today: June’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, May’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders, and because of tomorrow’s StateSide holiday, last week’s Jobless Claims too are squeezed into the mix.

The Swiss Franc is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is quite light. The firmest correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is one which is positive between Gold and Oil, although by Market Trends, the former’s linreg is negative whilst the latter’s is positive; (the correlation benefits from both markets being well up from their lows of a week ago, however we remain more attuned to Gold slipping near-term rather than Oil breaking higher). Still, by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) -43 points below its smooth valuation line whilst Oil is +5.13 points above same. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of a bunching of incoming metrics tomorrow for the shortened equities session ahead of Thursday’s holiday.

The year’s second half starts with both the Euro and Oil at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate within the context that by Market Ranges, EDTRs have been narrowing. The Gold Update cites confirmation of the yellow metal’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Long-to-Short, the typical move lower from here (strictly by past average adversity) suggesting a meeting with the 2247-2171 structural support zone; Gold by Market Values is (in real-time) -42 points below its smooth valuation line; but by Market Magnets, price appears poised to eclipse up through its Magnet: thus we don’t sense an imminently stark move lower; still, near-term Gold technicals have a negative bent. For the Econ Baro today we’ve June’s ISM(Mfg) Index and May’s Construction Spending.

Early on in the final trading day (by months) of the year’s first half, we’ve the Bond at present below today’s Neutral Zone; above same are Silver, Copper and Oil, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Going ’round the Market Values horn for our five primary BEGOS Markets: in real-time we’ve the Bond as +1 point “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.018 points “low”, Gold -41 points “low”, Oil +3.82 points “high” and the Spoo +211 points “high”. The S&P 500 is now 14 consecutive days “textbook overbought” and its “live” P/E is 42.7x. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Chi PMI and revision to UofM’s Sentiment Survey, plus May’s Personal Income/Spending and the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.

The Euro is at present above today’s Neutral Zone, whereas the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is notably light, with 10 metrics incoming for the Econ Baro over the next two sessions. As “X’d” (@deMeadvillePro) yesterday, Gold’s weekly parabolic trend has provisionally flipped from Long to Short, setting up a test for the 2247-2171 structural support zone; (more on that in next Saturday’s 763rd edition of The Gold Update). The Bond yesterday crossed beneath its Market Magnet, whilst today its MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: we thus anticipate some degree of further Bond selling overing the ensuing days, (albeit Friday’s PCE data is the wild card). Reports today for the Econ Baro include May’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the final revision to Q1’s GDP.

At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, and Gold all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Oil, and volatility is again light. Preferential Market Rhythms displaying the best swing consistency through yesterday are (on a 10-test basis) the Euro’s 15mn EMA, and (on a 24-test basis) both the Spoo’s daily Parabolics and 4hr Moneyflow. For the S&P 500 itself (now 12 consecutive trading days as “textbook overbought”), the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 42.8x and yield 1.323%; the StateSide 3mo annualized T-Bill yield is 5.223%. Silver’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. And the Econ Baro looks to May’s New Home Sales.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. Going ’round the horn for all eight Market Trends: the Bond, Swiss Franc, Oil and Spoo are in positive linreg; negative is that for the Euro, Gold, Silver, and Copper. Whilst the S&P 500 yesterday was -0.3%, its MoneyFlow (regressed into S&P points) fell -1.9%, the biased constituent therein being NVDA: per the S&P Valuations and Rankings page, amongst the 10 largest cap-weighted constituents, that company’s “live” P/E settled yesterday at 68.4x, second-highest only to that of LLY at 133.0x. As to the S&P itself, yesterday concluded its 11th consecutive session as “textbook overbought”. The Econ Baro awaits June’s Consumer Confidence.

A quiet start to the week as we move toward the mid-point of the trading year: at present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, volatility being light. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal’s fundamental grip, albeit the near-term weekly technicals lack strength: penetration of 2320 this week would flip the key weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 41.4x; the Spoo (in real-time) by Market Values is +238 points above its smooth valuation line. Despite much analytical ado about a Bond Market demise, our Bond futs from late April’s lows are nearly +6%, the 21-day linreg firmly positive at Market Trends. Copper’s cac volume is rolling from July into that for September. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro ahead of 12 incoming metrics for this week, culminating on Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE measure of inflaton.

Summer’s first full day begins as the week ends wherein we’ve the Euro as the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; volatility is quite light. Gold has relinquished its positive correlation with the Spoo and is now better teamed with Oil, both exhibiting uptrends these last couple of weeks, albeit Gold’s weekly technicals continue to suggest lower levels near-term: more on that in tomorrow’s Gold Update (No. 762); regardless, both Gold and Silver have broken above their respective weekly highs of the prior week, (even as by Market Trends their linregs remain negative). The Econ Baro, which has taken a terrific hit this week (indeed across the past two months), looks to May’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, the latter potentially quite negative given the dive in the Baro itself.

The two-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets: now we’ve the Bond below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same are Gold, Silver and the Spoo; session volatility expectedly has upshifted to moderate. Given the rise in the Spoo from Tuesday, the S&P 500 is poised to open (at this writing) above 5500 for the first time; its futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 42.1x and the yield 1.337%; (three-month U.S. dough pays 5.235%). By Market Trends, four components are in positive linregs (the Bond, Swiss Franc, Oil and Spoo), the other four being negative (Euro, Gold, Silver and Copper). Included today for incoming Econ Baro metrics are June’s Philly Fed Index, May’s Housing Starts/Permits, and Q1’s Current Account Deficit.

Given the StateSide holiday, we’ve a two-day GLOBEX session in progress: at present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for the session, and volatility is very light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the leader is the Euro’s 1hr MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis the Bond’s 1hr Moneyflow. The primary BEGOS components with the best recent correlation is one that is positive between Gold and the Spoo; however, by Market Trends, Gold is in a 21-day linreg downtrend whereas the Spoo’s is up; regardless, both markets are directionally higher from their lows of eight sessions ago The one metric due today for the Econ Baro is June’s NAHB Housing Index..

Following another record-high day for the S&P 500 (the “live” fut’s adj’d P/E now 42.1x; and by our MoneyFlow page, dough continues to pour into this vastly overvalued Index), we’ve Oil at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral zone for today; session volatility is mostly light. At Market Values, the insatiable Spoo is (in real-time) +285 points above its smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS components are not trading excessively far from their respective valuation lines; of note therein, Oil yesterday moved above its valuation line, which by rule is a Long signal, whilst at Market Trends, Oil’s linreg looks poised to rotate from negative to positive. For the Econ Baro we await May’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus April’s Business Inventories.

As the week commences we’ve all eight BEGOS Markets in the red; six of the eight (save for the Swiss Franc and Spoo) are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is mostly light, expect for Copper having thus far traced 64% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update remains remindful of the yellow metal’s near-term negative stance, the weekly MACD having confirmed a downside crossover at the conclusion of last week, price potentially en route to a test of the 2247-2171 structural support zone, (notably should the 2311 low of two weeks ago go). Cac volume for the Spoo is now on September; by its 10-day Market Profile, the Spoo’s most dominantly-traded handles (basis Sep cac) have been 5502, 5492, 5430, 5365 and 5350. 14 metrics come due this week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with June’s NY State Empire Index.

Gold is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; still, barring a significant up day, Gold shall compete its week with the weekly MACD having confirmed going negative: more in tomorrow’s 761st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Session volatility is light; of note however is the Yen (not yet a BEGOS component) having traced 128% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges for those of the other components). Cac volume for the Spoo is beginning to move from June into September with a whopping +65 points of additional price premium: that in turn finds the Sepember cac (in real-time) +259 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro looks to more inflation information via May’s Ex/Im Prices; too arrives UofM’s Sentiment Survey for June.

Following the somewhat “stubborn-to-cut-Fed” (let alone our year-to-date musings instead about a hike), the Dollar’s furthering a bit of a bid today: at present below their respective Neutral Zones for this session are the Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver; indeed across the board, all eight BEGOS Markets are underwater, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver having already traced 5% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Yesterday’s S&P surge to a record high (5447) without supportive earnings puts the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at 41.2x. Currencies’ cac volumes are beginning their roll from June into September. And at the wholesale inflation level, today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include May’s PPI.

Oil is at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility “ahead of the Fed” is very light. At Market Values, Oil is just a point or so below its smooth valuation line, the upside penetration of which by rule is a Long signal; and at Market Trends, whilst Oil’s linreg is negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are now into their third day of ascent; on a 10-test pure swing basis, Oil’s best Market Rhythm is the 1hr Price Oscillator; and for within swing profit-taking ’tis the 6hr MACD (as graphically detail on our Oil page). Late in the session we’ve both the FOMC’s Policy Statement, Powell presser and Treasury Budget for May, prior to which comes that month’s CPI.

Gold, Silver and Oil are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility again is light. Leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator, the Spoo’s 8hr MACD, and Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis the leaders are the Spoo’s daily Parabolics, the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) 30mn Moneyflow, and Silver’s 1hr MACD. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components continues to be positive between the Euro and Gold. The Econ Baro is again quiet today ahead of nine metrics due — including inflation measures at the retail, wholesale and ex/im levels — from Wednesday through Friday. The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins today with their Policy Statement and Powell presser due tomorrow.

The back-loaded EconData week (plus the FOMC’s Policy Statement come Wednesday) at present finds the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Silver and Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The Gold Update maintains its near-term negative price stance: of technical import thereto, Gold’s weekly MACD has now provisionally crossed to negative; (confirmation would arrive at week’s end); downside price follow-throughs of this study average some -90 points, which in this case would place Gold well-within its 2247-2171 structural support zone. The S&P 500 settled its week with the “live” P/E at 40.1x. And by Market Values (in real-time), the Spoo is +136 points above its smooth valuation line.

At present we’ve Copper as the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light with StateSide jobs data in the day’s balance. Curious to note yesterday’s ECB rate reduction despite the Governing Council’s outlook for increasing inflation. Going ’round the Market Trends page (21-day linreg basis and “Baby Blues” consistency): that for the Bond is up and reinforcing; the Euro up but weakening; the Swiss Franc up and reinforcing; Gold barely up and neutral; Silver up but weakening; both Copper and Oil down and worsening; and the Spoo up but weakening. The tumbling Econ Baro completes its busy week with May’s Payrolls data as noted, plus April’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Following yesterday’s record high, the “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is a futs-adj’d 40.5x and the yield 1.352%; three-month annualized U.S. T-Bill dough yields 5.240% without the risk of capital loss. An interesting Market Rhythm to mind is Gold’s 2h MACD: its last nine swings (both Long and Short) from 16 May-to-date have produced at least 12 points of signal follow-through ($1,200/cac); whilst the yellow metal both yesterday and today is having a recovery run, the weekly MACD is nearing a negative cross, in line with our recent writings being wary of near-term price retrenchment. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include April’s Trade Deficit and the revision to Q1’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Bond and Swiss Franc are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; above same is Gold, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Gold’s weekly MACD is poised for a negative crossing, the last five of which over three years have led to lower prices of at least -30 points; The Gold Update cites specific lower levels of which to be aware following the “double-top” which formed across the past seven weeks; and price has been flirting with either side of its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). But that same metric, Oil (in real-time) shows as -7.83 points “low” and the Spoo as +123 points “high”, The Econ Baro looks to May’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Svc) Index.

BEGOS Markets’ volatility is lighter than ’round this time yesterday, all eight components having thus far traced less than 50% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Swiss Franc is at present above today’s Neutral Range, whilst below same is Oil. Yesterday was a sizable up day for the currencies, both the Euro and Swiss Franc moving to nearly two-month highs. At Market Trend’s, Silver’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency confirmed dropping below their key +80% axis, suggestive of lower prices near-term: should yesterday’s low of 29.940 go, a test of 29.000 (10 May’s high) appears structurally reasonable; Silver’s Market Profile support is 30.650 to 30.500; note as well at on our page for Silver that its EDTR presently exceeds 1.000 (the actual reading being 1.155 points per day). April’s Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.

The week begins with the Bond at present above its Neutral Zone for today; below same are Oil, Silver and Gold; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update still is slanted toward lower prices near-term following the yellow metal’s have created a notable “double-top” within the past seven weeks, such pattern generally leading to further downside. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets is positive between the Euro and Gold. Leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is again the Yen’s (not yet a formal BEGOS component) daily Parabolics, and on a 24-test basis ’tis Gold’s 1hr MACD; (as highlighted in The Gold Update, the yellow metal’s 12hr MACD is best for profit taking within swings). The Econ Baro starts a busy week with May’s ISM(Mfg) Index and April’s Construction Spending.

The BEGOS Markets are fairly quiet ahead of “Fed-favoured” inflation data due for April: both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present a bit below their Neutral Zones for today; otherwise the balance of the components are within same, and volatility is light. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed closing yesterday below their key +80% axis: year-over-year there’ve been six prior such negative crossovers, price then averaging -96 points of downside within the ensuing 21 trading days (one month); and by Market Values (in real-time), the Spoo still is +81 points above its smooth valuation line; too, this past Wednesday, the Spoo crossed below its Market Magnet, also indicative of further near-term price fallout; there is some structural support for the Spoo in the 5154-5036 zone, (i.e. beginning some -90 points below present price). The Econ Baro looks to May’s Chi PMI, plus April’s Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Prices.

On the heels of yesterday’s declines across all eight BEGOS Markets, we’ve at present both the Bond and Swiss Franc above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, save for Silver and Oil, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the balance of the bunch. Looking at Market Rhythms on a profit-taking (rather than pure swing) basis, the best study is the Spoo’s daily Price Oscillator: there have been 10 signals extending as far back as 20 December 2022 for which all 10 produced price follow-through of at least 44 points (i.e. $2,200/cac); the current signal has been Long since 08 May. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include April’s Pending Home Sales and the first revision to Q1 GDP.

Gold picks up +23 points of fresh premium as cac volume moves from June into that for August; however, the yellow metal is lower today, at present below its Neutral Zone as is the Spoo; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis our best three are the Yen’s (not yet an official BEGOS Market) daily Parabolics, Copper’s 5mn Moneyflow, and the Spoo’s daily Parabolics; on a 24-test basis, the top three are the Yen’s 4hr Moneyflow, Gold’s 2hr Parabolics, and Copper’s 1hr MACD. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Gold and Oil. No metrics are due today for the Econ Baro.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate at present above today’s Neutral Zones, as are Oil, the Euro and Swiss Franc; within same are both the Bond and Spoo; volatility has expectedly widened, now mostly moderate-to-robust, Silver with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 150%. The Spoo is (in real-time) +192 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); by Market Profiles, the Spoo’s most commonly traded price of the past 10 sessions is 5333. The S&P’s MoneyFlow has been significantly skewed to the upside on further piling into NVDA; otherwise by the page’s quarterly measure, the trend had been in mild decline. The Econ Baro awaits May’s Consumer Confidence.

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets is underway, (for Tuesday settlement given the StateSide holiday). The precious metals are getting the bid, both Gold and Silver at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS components are within same, and volatility expectedly is quite light: only Silver has thus far traced in excess of 50% (55%) of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update acknowledges the most recent All-Time High (2454) as being at best “marginal” and cites what have become “habitual” moves lower typically following such post-COVID highs. The S&P 500 settled Friday as 13 days “textbook overbought”: the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro anticipates just nine incoming metrics as the week unfolds, including on Friday the “Fed-favoured” PCE for April.

The precious metals are getting a grip, both Gold and Silver at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is quite light ahead of the StateSide long weekend. In recent years, Gold after recording All-Time Highs has habitually, indeed materially, pulled back somewhat swiftly: more on that in tomorrow’s 758th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; too, the yellow metal finally has returned to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time since 28 February. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (in real-time) kinked lower (but not so much as to yet penetrate their key +80% axis); still the S&P itself technically remains “textbook overbought” and is overwhelming expensive given its cap-weighted lack of earnings support. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with metrics including April’s Durable Orders.

Following what we’d now classify as Gold’s “marginal” All-Time High on Monday (at 2454), the yellow metal has since been in sell mode (at present 2364), and along with Silver (30.545) is below today’s Neutral Zone; the Spoo is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Such selling has dutifully brought down the Market Value excess we’ve had for Gold for nearly three full months: price (in real-time) is now +20 points above its smooth valuation line; a month ago the deviation was +200 points. “Over-valued” too by such metric is the Spoo (+230 points) whilst “under-valued” we’ve Oil -5.78 points. Specific to our S&P MoneyFlow page, the three-month differential of Flow relative to the Index (per that page’s lower-right panel) has developed a detectably negative bent to it. The Econ Baro’s incoming metrics today include April’s New Home Sales.

At present we’ve both the Bond and Copper below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Silver has quieted a bit relative to its ranginess into this week: indeed by Market Ranges, the white metal’s EDTR is now 0.99 points, (whereas last September ’twas as low as 0.46 points). The S&P 500 is now 10 consecutive days “textbook overbought”: the “live” (fut’s-adj’d) P/E is 40.4x and the yield 1.369% versus an annualized 5.240% on risk-free U.S. 3-month dough. One wonders for how much longer the investing herd shall continue seeking unrealistic capital gains rather than equities reasonably priced by earnings support: mind our S&P 500 Valuation and Rankings page. The Econ Baro awaits April’s Existing Home Sales; and the Fed releases the 30 Apr-01May FOMC meeting minutes.

All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate as well as Oil are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, again save for Silver which today already has traced 153% of its EDTR; quietest is the Spoo with just a 10% tracing and nothing due for the Econ Baro. Following Gold’s new All-Time High yesterday (2454), price has backed off: still per Market Values, the yellow metal is (in real-time at 2419) +79 points above its smooth valuation line. Gold’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its 12hr Parabolics and (on a 24-test basis) its 30mn Moneyflow; on a profit-taking basis, Gold’s daily Parabolics have reached follow-through of $2,700/cac in nine of the past 10 swings as listed on the Market Rhythms page; that, too, is the Rhythm featured on the Gold page.

Gold has recorded another All-Time High this morning: The Gold Update mused it could happen as soon as today, and so it has, the intra-day high at present 2454, with price above its Neutral Zone as ’tis too for both Silver and the Euro; the other BEGOS Markets are within same. Session volatility is moderate, albeit specifically robust for Silver which already has traced 139% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Q1 Earnings Season has completed: for the S&P 500, 64% of reported constituents bettered the bottom lines over Q1 of a year ago, a somewhat sub-par performance given improvement (ex-COVID quarters) averages 69%; whilst the “live” P/E of the S&P was reduced from 46.1x, the current (futs-adj’d) 40.0x remains a dangerously high level. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the otherwise plunging Econ Baro: just five metrics are due, none until Wednesday.

‘Tis a fairly quiet start to Friday on the heels of a heavy week of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro, itself in a rather severe plunge. At present, just Copper is outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light, the red metal being the only component having thus far traced in excess of 50% (55%) of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components (real-time readings): the Bond is nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.02 points “high”, Gold +56 points “high”, Oil -3.6 points “low”, and the Spoo +205 points “high”, the S&P itself having extended its “textbook overbought” stance through a seventh consecutive trading day. The Econ Baro completes it significantly down week with April’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. And today is the final day of Q1 Earnings Season, which for the S&P 500 has been somewhat sub-par by year-over-year growth.

Following all-time highs yesterday for both Copper and Spoo (including the S&P 500 itself), we’ve at present all eight BEGOS Markets inside their respective Neutral Zones for today, ahead of another heavy round of incoming EconData; volatility is moderate. For the S&P, the combination of a new high and below-par Q1 Earnings Season growth has pushed the “live” P/E back above 40x, the futs-adj’d level now 40.5x; the Index is now at an extreme “textbook overbought” reading. As to the Euro, recall from earlier in the prior week our having noted per the Market Values page the currency’s having crossed above its smooth valuation line such that price by that leading indicative method could make a run toward the 1.10s: then ’twas in the 1.07s, having since traded up into the 1.09s. As for the Econ Baro, amongst today’s metrics are May’s Philly Fed Index, April’s Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; the red metal continues to be in play, having already traced 146% of its EDTR (see Market ranges); otherwise, session volatility for the other components is light with a bevy of EconData in the day’s balance. Looking at Market Trends we’ve only two with negative linregs: Gold and Oil; until the former clears at least 2385 (the Golden Ratio retracement cited in the current edition of The Gold Update), the recent near-term correction would technically remain in place; Gold at present is 2362 and its EDTR is 35 points. The Econ Baro’s busy day looks to May’s NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Index, plus April’s reads on retail inflation (CPI) and Retail Sales.

Both Silver and Copper are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility pre-StateSide inflation data is very light. Of the 405 Market Rhythms we test nightly, Copper (on a 10-test swing basis) is leading for consistency by its 30mn MACD; second-best is Gold’s 12hr Parabolics; too (on a 24-test swing basis) Copper’s 1hr MACD leads for consistency, followed again by its 30mn MACD. As well, Copper is the only BEGOS Market for which its EDTR (see Market Ranges) widened yesterday both day-over-day and week-over-week: thus vis-à-vis the whole bunch, Copper is most in play. And as noted, today the Econ Baro awaits April’s inflation at the wholesale level (PPI).

The week begins with Gold at present below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update inconclusively questions as to whether or not the yellow metal’s recent correction off its All-Time High (2449 on 12 April) has run its course: Gold’s rally this past week went precisely up to the perfect Golden Ratio fib retracement at 2385 (from the correction’s low [thus far?] of 2285), but has since pulled back (now 2358); too, by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is +54 points above its smooth valuation line, and by Market Trends, the linreg remains negative. Whilst the Econ Baro is quiet today, a very busy week awaits with 18 metrics due, including those for April’s wholesale (PPI) and retail (CPI) inflation. As well, this is the final week of Q1 Earnings Season, which by year-over-year comparison has been rather mediocre (and thus is why the P/E of the S&P remains treacherously high, the “live” reading 39.2x).

The Metals Triumvirate is on the move this morning as Gold, Silver and Copper are getting the bid, all at present above today’s neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is mostly light, the exception being Copper having already traced 73% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold appears on track for a positive weekly close for the first time since that ending 20 April; in real-time, the yellow metal still is +70 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and at Market Trends, Gold’s linreg remains negative, however the “Baby Blues” therein have today lurched to the upside, and the “textbook technicals” have begun turning positive; more on it all of course in tomorrow’s 756th consecutive Saturday edition of the Gold Update. In a day replete with FedSpeak, the Econ Baro concludes its week with May’s UoM Sentiment Survey and April’s Treasury Budget.

At present we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Silver is above same; BEGOS Markets’ volatility by this hour remains quite light, again in a week with little incoming EconData. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis our leader is Copper’s 1hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis the Swiss Franc’s 30mn Moneyflow. By Market Trends, when just recently Copper was sporting the only positive linreg, positive too now are those for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo; ’tis indicative for Fed rate cut expectations. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and the Euro. Simply today for the Econ Baro arrives last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

Both Copper and Oil are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. The Euro has yet to respond to its positive crossing of the smooth valuation line (see Market Values); still (in real-time), the Euro’s “Baby Blues” are now rising above their 0% axis, (see Market Trends) the linreg having turned positive; Market Profile support for the Euro is 1.07000; too, the Euro’s Best Market Rhythm (see the Euro’s page) is its daily Price Oscillator which appears poised to turn positive: 7 of the past 10 Price Oscillator crossings for the Euro (in either direction) have generated follow-through of at least 0.02000 points ($2,500/cac). Today for the Econ Baro we’ve March’s Wholesale Inventories.

Both the Swiss Franc and Silver are currently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. We’re minding the Euro, as Friday (by Market Values) the currency confirmed a positive crossover of price above its smooth valuation line: the average follow-through of such crossings from a year ago-to-date is some 0.019 points, which from Friday’s settle at 1.07815 “suggests” the Euro reaching up toward the 1.10s; (the Euro is at present 1.07745); obviously “average” hardly is forward reality, however as “Fed rate cut” expectations are renewing, that has taken some puff out of the Dollar. Late in today’s session the Econ Baro looks to March’s Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc is currently below today’s Neutral Zone; above same are the Metals Triumvirate and Oil, and BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, even as a week with little incoming EconData begins: just five metrics are due through Friday. The Gold Update muses over the “seasonality” of bank failures, noting (per Fitch) that 7% of U.S. banks are “stressed”; otherwise, Gold’s near-term technicals continue to appear negative despite a bit of a price bounce to start the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has unwound its “textbook oversold” condition; and with about 75% of Q1 Earnings Season complete for the S&P, 65% (somewhat below average) have thus far improved their bottom lines from Q1 a year ago; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 38.2x and the yield 1.417%; the annualized three-month U.S. T-Bill yield is 5.235%.

We’ve the Swiss Franc at present above its Neutral Zone for today; the seven other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. Our top three Market Rhythms on 10-test swing basis are the Spoo’s 1hr MACD and daily Parabolics, plus the Swiss Franc’s 15mn Parabolics; on 24-test swing basis they are Gold’s 15mn Moneyflow, Copper’s 8hr Moneyflow, and the Swiss Franc’s daily Parabolics. Looking at Market Values, Gold — which in recent weeks had been better than +200 points above its smooth valuation line — is now (in real-time) “just” +46 points above it; Oil is better than -4 points below same, and the Spoo -101 points by same; the Euro looks poised for the ensuing week to cross above its valuation line, which by rule would be a Long signal. The Econ Baro concludes its week with Aprils’ Payrolls data and the ISM(Svc) Index.

At present we’ve both the Bond and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The FOMC’s stance as anticipated was a fairly do-nothing non-event, notably as little has changed on the inflation front, (save for it not really slowing). At Market Trends, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are curling upward for the Bond, Euro and Spoo, even as the Fed (subtly or otherwise) is de-emphasizing the word “cut” without specifying “raise” (yet?); ‘course, we’ll continue to mid the math thereto. ‘Tis a busy inflow of metrics today for the Econ Baro, including March’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders, as well as the initial look at Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q1.

Save for the Swiss Franc, at present below today’s Neutral Zone, the seven other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is very light, albeit in the context that some EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have been expanding of late, notably so that for the Spoo which is now measured at 74 points. As anticipated, in real-time the linregs for both Gold and Silver have now rotated to negative, leaving Copper as the only positive linreg BEGOS component. With better than half of S&P 500 companies having thus far reported earnings, the “live” P/E has favourably come off a bit, now 38.3x, but still extremely expensive by any historical earnings yardstick. The Econ Baro looks to April’s ADP Employment Data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus March’s Construction Spending. 18:00 brings the FOMC’s Policy Statement and then Powell’s Presser.

The final day of the year’s first quadrimestris finds early on all eight BEGOS Markets in the red; therein, the elements comprising the EuroCurrencies and Metals Triumvirate are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today, (the Bond, Oil and Spoo within same, albeit down). At Market Trends, both Gold and Silver appear within a day or two of their linregs rotating from positive to negative, which would leave Copper as the sole remaining component with a positive linreg; Gold remains above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) in real-time by +78 points; still thus far today, the yellow metal already has broken below key Market Profile trading support (2342), current price now 2331. For the Econ Baro we’ve April’s Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence, plus Q1’s Employment Cost Index.

A bit of Dollar weakness to begin “Fed Week”, the Euro and Swiss Franc (non-BEGOS Yen too) at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is already is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc having traced 108% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update “apologetically” takes credit for price’s demise last Monday; further downside purely by near-term technicals is anticipated toward structural support in the 2247-2171 zone, (Gold currently is 2342). Thus far in Q1 Earnings Season, 64% of S&P 500 constituents have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago (a decent Earnings Season is at least 70% improvement), but the excessively high level of the Index hasn’t lowered the “live” P/E a wit (45.5x futs-adj’d). Given historical reversion to the P/E mean, the S&P remains, dare we say, dangerously high.

Both the Bond and Copper currently are above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Of note: the change in the Spoo at this time (5127.25, -4.50) belies the change in the S&P itself at the open given a material rise the Spoo after stocks had closed: at that present Spoo level, the S&P would open higher by some +46 points (+0.9%). Cac volume for Silver is moving from May into July: after Monday’s fallout for the precious metals, Gold and Silver have basically been treading water: however by Market Trends, their respective “Baby Blues” of trend consistency continue to drop, our old adage being “Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose your shoes.” Widely followed today for the Econ Baro are March’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE Prices.