PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

Gold, Copper and Oil are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency have (as anticipated in Tuesday’s note) confirmed dropping below their 0% axis, the linreg having rotated from positive to negative; similar is the case for the Euro, whereas that for Oil has been negative for some seven weeks. Looking at Market Profiles, the current prices of the Bond, Gold and Silver are all very near their most commonly traded levels of the past fortnight. And for the Econ Baro, today’s incoming metrics include August’s wholesale inflation via the PPI, plus the month’s Treasury Deficit.

At present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper; below same is the Spoo, and volatility for the BEGOS Markets is firmly moderate. Oil yesterday traded down to a 16-month low (65.27). By Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis for pure swing consistency, we’ve for the Bond both its 6hr Moneyflow and 12hr Parabolics, plus the Swiss Franc’s 2hr Price Oscillator. Market correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have deteriorated such that currently ’tis “each market for itself” rather than any notable continuity pairings (positive or negative). The Econ Baro looks to retail inflation via August’s CPI.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility to this point across the BEGOS spectrum is quite light, with nothing due for the Econ Baro. With respect to yesterday’s +1.2% gain for the S&P 500, its MoneyFlow regressed into S&P points comparatively gained just +0.4%: such weakness ought bring further near-term selling for the Index itself. Too, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) are in real-time down to teasing the 0% axis: confirmation of penetrating that axis to the downside shall mean the linreg trend having rotated from positive to negative. Today’s EDTR (see market Ranges) for the Spoo is 80 points. As for Market Rhythm pure swing consistency, currently the best for the Spoo on a 10-test basis is its daily MACD, whilst on a 24-test basis ’tis its daily Parabolics. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the S&P is 39.9x.

The week begins finding only Silver and Oil are at present within today’s Neutral Zones; below same are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold, whilst above are Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update notes the stodgy state of late for the yellow metal, but the broader outlook by trend firmly positive. Oil on Friday traded below (to 67.17) last December’s low (of 67.71): by Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is -9.01 points below its smooth valuation line, the lowest divergence in at least a year; too, Oil remains the sole BEGOS component with a negative linreg (see Market Trends), although — save for the Swiss Franc — the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are falling for the six other markets. The Econ Baro starts its week with July’s Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc at present is the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light, with StateSide August Payrolls in the balance for the Econ Baro. The Spoo (inclusive of today thus far) has made a fourth consecutive daily “lower low”: again as noted yesterday (and, too, as “X’d” [@deMeadvillePro]), the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” having dropped below the +80% axis (see Market Trends) points to still lower price levels; at Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) crossing beneath its smooth valuation line, also indicative of price further falling. ‘Tis been another somewhat stodgy week for Gold: more on that in tomorrow’s 773rd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and volatility is quite light, within the context that most EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are well-elevated above their narrower levels of last Spring. By Market Trends, the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency yesterday confirmed having moved below their key +80% axis: there’ve been seven prior occurrences of such from a year ago-to-day, the median downside follow-through within 21 days being -48 points, but the average thereto -202 points. Looking at correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Bond and Euro. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include August’s ADP Employment data and the ISM(Svc) Index, plus the revisions to Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are both Copper and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. The S&P 500 at the moment would open down another -0.5% “as the selling continues”: obviously foretelling all this have been weak earnings, unsupportive MoneyFlow and strained “textbook overbought” conditions. For Fib followers, from the S&P’s 05 August low to its 26 August high, and initial Golden Ratio retracement (-38.2%) would bring 5450 and such complete Golden Ratio retracement (-61.8%) 5324. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: on a 10-test basis we’ve both the Bond’s 6hr and 12hr Moneyflows, whilst on a 24-test basis are Silver’s 8hr Parabolics, the Yen’s (albeit not yet a BEGOS component) daily Price Oscillator, and Oil’s 1hr Price Oscillator. The Econ Baro awaits July’s Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. Late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The BEGOS Markets’ two-day session continues, wherein at present we’ve the Swiss Franc below its Neutral Zone, as are the elements of the Metals Triumvirate; none of the other components are above same, and volatility has expectedly moved to firmly moderate. Going ’round the horn at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond is essentially right on its smooth valuation line, as almost is the Euro; Gold is +53 points “high”, Oil -3.92 points “low” and the Spoo +132 points “high”. Were the StateSide stock market to open at this instant, the S&P 500 would drop -8 points to 5640, albeit just -30 points below its all-time high of 5670 (16 July). And for the Econ Baro we’ve August’s ISM(Mfg) Index and July’s Construction Spending.

The first of the BEGOS Markets’ two-day session (given the StateSide holiday) finds at present the Bond, Silver, Copper and Oil all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS components are above same, and volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver notably already having traced 82% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to last week as being the yellow metal’s second-narrowest trading week (percentage distance between high and low) year-to-date, and the bizarre notion of firm Q2 GDP growth even as the Econ Baro plummeted throughout that reporting period. The S&P 500 is now a dozen days “textbook overbought” on weak MoneyFlow, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E 40.7x and yield 1.304%; of note, the yield on the 3mo T-Bill has finally slipped sub-5% to 4.968%.

At present we’ve Gold below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light. With Friday in the balance, Gold otherwise is putting in one of the year’s more narrow weeks; still, we’ll see where Gold stands overall in tomorrow’s 772nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As “X’d” (@deMeadvillePro) last evening, we remain wary of the S&P 500’s weak MoneyFlow (per its page) even as the Index has rallied through much of August: too, the S&P is now 11 day’s “textbook overbought”; and the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is now 40.8x. The Econ Baro wraps its week with metrics including August’s Chi PMI along with July’s Personal Income/Spending plus the month’s “Fed-favoured” inflation read of Core PCE Prices.

A reversal of what we saw ’round this time yesterday: now the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper are all above today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Looking at Market Profiles, the most dominantly-traded prices (mildly rounded) across the past 10 trading days are as follows: Bond 124^08; Euro 1.1130; Swiss Franc 1.1770; Gold 2543; Silver 29.950; Copper 4.2300, Oil 73.20; Spoo 5636. As to Oil, by Market Trends the linreg still has not rotated from negative to positive; that measure for all the other BEGOS components is positive. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include July’s Pending Home Sales and notably the second peek at Q2 GDP: our sense is the latter shall be revised lower given the significant plummet of the Baro throughout the Q2 reporting period (May/June/July) coupled with the “surprise” (not to us) decline in July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

A more robust start to the day for BEGOS Markets: we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the bunch are within same, and volatility is moderate. By Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading on the 10-test basis are the Bond’s 6hr and 12hr Moneyflows, plus Oil’s 30mn EMA and 1hr Price Oscillator; on a 24-test basis we’ve Oil’s 30mn and 2hr Parabolics, the Yen’s (not officially a BEGOS Market) daily Price Oscillator, and Silver’s 8hr Parabolics. Too for Silver, its cac volume is rolling from September into that for December, as is the case over the next day or so for the Bond. In terms of correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is negative between the Euro and Oil. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro.

Just as was the case ’round this time yesterday, Copper again is the only BEGOS Market currently outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone, with session volatility again light. The course of Market Trends throughout the Dollar’s recent decline has sported positive linregs for all the BEGOS Components, save for Oil: however, the latter’s”Baby Blues” of trend consistency are nudging up to the 0% axis such that in a day or two, all eight Markets may all be tilted to the upside, specific to the linreg metric. As well, by Market Values, four of the five primary BEGOS Components are above their respective smooth valuation line, with Oil just barely below same (-1.37 points with the EDTR by Market Ranges now 2.36 points). Too, Oil yesterday confirmed price having moved above its Market Magnet. For the Econ Baro today we’ve August’s Consumer Confidence.

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light and by Market Ranges, EDTRs (save for that of the Euro) continue to narrow, albeit are (in some cases) above average ranges looking back a year. The Gold Update addresses price by Market Values as being “high” (in real-time by +113 points); also noted are the Dollar’s demise post-Powell and the unsupportive MoneyFlow beneath the S&P 500’s recent rally, the Index also now seven days “textbook overbought”; the “live” futs-adj’d P/E is 42.0x, some +68% above its inception a dozen years ago. As well for Gold, should the “usual” post-All-Time High selling gather some momentum, the 2375 level — our forecast high for this year and essentially a center-piece of structural support — wouldn’t be an untoward landing area. Copper’s cac volume has rolled from September into that for December. The Econ Baro begins its week with July’s Durable Orders.

Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; otherwise, BEGOS Market’s volatility continues as quite light, similar to that of the prior two sessions to this point. Looking at the five primary components vis-à-vis their Market Values (in real-time), we’ve the Bond nearly +4 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.022 points “high”, Gold +102 points “high”, Oil -6.05 points “low”, and the Spoo +85 points “high”. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 40.8x and the yield 1.332% vs. the 3mo T-Bill’s risk-free 5.025%; too, the S&P is now six days “textbook overbought”. Gold appears en route to completing a down week. albeit with FedHead Powell’s Jackson Hole address in the balance, on verra; more, of course, tomorrow in Gold Update No. 771. And simultaneous with the Chairman’s speech at 14:00 GMT comes the release of July’s New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is again quite light. Gold, after having further achieved another All-Time High (2570) on Tuesday, is currently 2541 and, in fact, is mildly net lower to this point of the week; again the current edition of The Gold Update cites notable price pullbacks so far this year following All-Time Highs. Looking at Market Rhythms, for pure swing consistency on 10-test basis, topping the list is the Bond’s 12hr Moneyflow, whilst on a 24-test basis the leader again is Oil’s 2hr Parabolics. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include July’s Existing Home Sales.

Just the Euro is at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light, and EDTRs (see Market Ranges) whilst elevated are nonetheless falling, (save for that of the Euro). Looking ’round the Market Profiles horn, save for Oil, the other seven BEGOS components are trading high relative to their pricing across the past fortnight. Too, by Market Trends, again save for Oil, the seven other markets are in positive linreg. And in turn, the Dollar has been continuing its slide since mid-year: the DX high thus far in 2024 is 106.380 (01 May) but today ’tis been traded as low at 101.163, (near the year’s bottom thus far of 101.030 set back on 03 Jan). The Econ Baro remains quiet; and the FOMC’s Minutes from the 30-31 July Meeting come due.

The Euro, Copper and Oil are all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are above same, and volatility to this point of the session is light relative to yesterday ’round the same time. Our best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between the Bond and Euro. Oil’s Market Magnet is being pierced (in real-time) to the downside, suggestive of still lower levels: currently 72.98, Oil has made a home in the 70s through much of this year; 72-20-72.00 shows as near-term Market Profile support; price was briefly sub-70 this past 03 January; and Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency is (on a 10-test basis) its 2hr MACD and (on a 24-test basis) its 2hr Parabolics; thus 2hr Oil seems a reasonable study of which to take note.

The week begins finding both the Euro and Swiss Franc at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, but volatility already may be deemed as moderate: again, mind the Market Ranges page to maintain context for current ETDR readings. The Gold Update acknowledges the yellow metal’s new All-Time High, indeed to up to 2550: characterized therein are the price pullbacks that have beset Gold upon making fresh highs thus far this year; and by Market Values (in real-time), Gold is +144 points above its smooth valuation line. Q2 Earnings Season has concluded with 70% of S&P 500 constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q2 of a year ago: that is a comparably above average performance; ‘course, the “live” P/E at 40.8x remains the unsustainable issue. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the Econ Baro with just four metrics due, beginning today with July’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

BEGOS Markets’ volatility is very light thus far with just the Euro at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone. The S&P 500’s recovery rally off of what had been a “textbook oversold” condition has been marred by weak monetary inflow per our MoneyFlow page and notably therein the 5-day and 21-day measures; too, the overall low level of earnings support now finds the “live” P/E of the S&P at a futs-adj’d 41.4x. Looking at Market Values, deviations which stand out (in real-time) are the Bond being nearly +5 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro nearly +0.02 points “high”, and Gold +103 points “high”, the latter putting in quite a narrow week (with today in the balance); more of course in tomorrow’s 770th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Econ Baro looks to August’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus July’s Housing Starts/Permits. And ’tis the final day of Q2 Earnings Season, which has been above-average by year-over-year comparison, but as noted broadly is weak given the sky-high price of equities.

‘Tis a significant session for economic data, the Econ Baro due to receive 10 incoming metrics: thus ’tis not surprising to find all eight BEGOS Markets at present within their respective Neutral Zones for today with volatility to this point very light. Going ’round the Market Profiles horn, the most dominantly-traded prices for the past 10 trading days are: Bond 122^30, Euro 1.094, Swiss Franc 1.161, Gold 2490, Silver 27.20, Copper 4.040, Oil (Oct) 72.20, and Spoo 5369; note that Oil’s cac volume is rolling from September into that for October. The best correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Gold and Oil. And notable metrics for the aforementioned Baro include August’s NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index; July’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil; plus June’s Business Inventories.

Copper is at present the only BEGOS Market outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is continues quiet given the hour. The S&P 500 yesterday fully unwound what had been a 13-session run of being “textbook oversold”, albeit in the process its “live” is now (futs-adj’d) 40.2x and the yield 1.348%; the 3mo U.S. T-Bill still yields an annualized 5.053%. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, topping the stack on both our 10-test and 24-test bases is Oil’s 1hr Parabolics; Oil’s trading range (closing basis) for at least the past three months is between 73 and 83, with present price of 78.94 measuring -1.43 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Gold yesterday came within 21 points of its All-Time High (2338 basis December): Gold’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 42 points. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s CPI.

We’ve at present the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility again is relatively quite light given the recent expansion in EDTRs (see Market Ranges); for yesterday, the Spoo’s EDTR was 120 points, yet the actual range just 40 points, typical of the “norm” last Winter. The Spoo’s “Baby Blues” are (in real-time) curling up above their -80% axis, (mind those too for both Silver and Oil), the “rule” there being a “Buy” signal if confirmed by day’s end: specific to the Spoo, the mid-5400s to mid-5500s appear structurally resistive; the most consistent pure swing Market Rhythm for the Spoo has been its 12-hr Moneyflow, (for profit targeting, see too its currently being listing on the Market Rhythms page). The Econ Baro awaits July’s PPI.

We start the week with just the Swiss Franc at present outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quite light, again within the context that by Market Ranges, EDTRs have notably expanded of late: for the Spoo, ’tis now 120 points. Too, by Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time)-195 points below its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is “textbook oversold” through 12 consecutive trading days; the “live” P/E however remains exceedingly high at a futs-adj’d (i.e. in real-time) 38.8x. The Gold Update takes to task the hysteria of the “FinMedia & Herd”, specifically with respect to the selling of stocks a week ago: in the missive, the logarithmic chart of the S&P perfectly makes the point. The Econ Baro gets packed with 18 metrics this week, beginning today with July’s Treasury Budget; and this is the final week of Q2 Earnings Season.

Both the Bond and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light. The rally in the Spoo nonetheless still finds it by Market Values (in real-time) as -223 points below the smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 itself is now 11 days “textbook oversold” even as the Index gained +2.3% yesterday. With one week remaining in Q2 Earnings season, 424 S&P constituents have reported of which 70% bettered their bottom lines of Q2 a year ago: that is a wee bit better than average year-over-year improvement; however, the big bane for the S&P is its excessively high P/E, the “live” (futs-adj’d) reading at 39.7x. Gold remains down for the week, although now at 2457, price is well off the intraweek low of 2404; by its Market Profile, 2435 is the yellow metal’s key trading support by volume; tomorrow brings our 769th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

At present, none of the BEGOS Markets are below their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst above same are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have of late been expanding: indeed that today for the Spoo is 116 points. Gold’s daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative: per the current Market Rhythms list, that study for the yellow metal has profited by at least $2,600/cac (regardless of signaling Long or Short) for nine of the past 10 such crossovers; by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) +60 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst on Tuesday price moved below its Market Magnet; a move lower from here (2433) into the upper-to-mid 2300s wouldn’t be untoward. The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week today with metrics including June’s Wholesale Inventories.

Both the Euro and Swiss Franc are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Market’s volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc notably already having traded 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For the S&P 500, just as monetary outflow was relatively “thin” during the three-day selloff, so yesterday too was it “thin” for the rally: mind the MoneyFlow page. Looking at Market Rhythms, the recent erratic movements have brought a bit less pure swing consistency to our 10-test basis studies; however on a 24-test basis we’ve five standouts at present: Silver’s 8hr Parabolics, Oil’s 15mn Price Oscillator, the Spoo’s daily Parabolics, Copper’s 2hr Parabolics, and the Yen’s (not yet formally a BEGOS component) daily Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro late in the session we’ve June’s Consumer Credit.

As is typically led by the MoneyFlow Page (see The S&P 500), were RTH to commence at this instant the S&P would open +74 points (+1.4%) as — despite the selling these past three sessions — the monetary outflow has not been as severe as the change in the Index itself; indeed, the S&P is now eight days “textbook oversold” despite it still being vastly overvalued by weak earnings, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 36.7x At present for today, we’ve the Bond, Swiss Franc and Metals Triumvirate all below their Neutral Zones, whilst above same is the Spoo (and hence by “fair value” the notion of that “up” opening). At Market Values given components flailing about, here are the real-time deviations from their respective smooth valuation lines: the Bond shows as nearly +6 points “high”, the Euro +0.014 points “high”, Gold +68 points “high”, Oil nearly -8 points “low”, and the Spoo -301 points “low”. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Trade Deficit.

The Spoo is sufficiently lower (-2.7%) such that were RTH to begin at this moment, the S&P itself would open -3.1%. BEGOS Markets’ volatility is robust, with at present the Bond and Swiss Franc above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and Spoo. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal as last week having made a “FATH” (Faux All-Time High) resulting form the August-to-December cac roll: by the latter, the All-Time High per December is now 2538 (17 July). Looking at Market Trends, the “safe-haven” BEGOS components of the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are in 21-day positive linreg; the other five markets are in negative linreg. ‘Tis a very quiet week for the rather decimated Econ Baro: just five metrics are due beginning today with July’s ISM(Svc) Index.

The S&P 500’s intraday high-to-low percentage loss yesterday of -2.8% was its worst since 02 November 2022; the session’s -164 intraday points loss was the worst since 05 May 2022; whilst the Index is now five days “textbook oversold”, it remains vastly overvalued per the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E now 37.7x. At present we’ve the Euro and Metals Triumvirate all above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same is the Spoo; volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo by Market Values, ’tis (in real-time) -161 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold has recorded another “faux” All-Time High (2513) by the so-called “continuous contract” which is now that for December (see yesterday’s Commentary). And the Econ Baro looks to July’s Payrolls data and June’s Factory Orders.

Gold by its “continuous front month” cac has reached 2500 to an All-Time High so far in this session of 2503: again this incorporates the robust additional premium per the rollover from the August cac to that for December, (for which 2538 would become a “true” ATH). Meanwhile at present, we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ session volatility is moderate. By Market Ranges, the Spoo’s EDTR is 80 points, its highest reading in better than a year. Post-Fed, the “live” P/E of the S&P has moved back above 40x. And today’s Econ Baro incoming metrics include July’s ISM(Mfg) Index, June’s Construction Spending, and the initial read of Q2’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The final day of this month brings the FOMC’s Policy Statement (18:00 GMT release): were the Fed to react to the steeply falling Econ Baro, they’d cut; rather to the “oblivious” GDP, they’ll stand pat. At present we’ve the Metals Triumvirate, Oil and Spoo (+1.2%) all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is firmly moderate. Looking at Market Rhythms for swing consistency, leading the 10-test basis is the Yen’s (not yet officially a BEGOS component) 2hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis instead the Euro’s 2hr MACD. For the Econ Baro ahead of the Fed are July’s ADP Employment and Chi PMI, June’s Pending Home Sales, and Q2’s Employment Cost Index.

Both the Swiss Franc and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Q2 Earnings Season is not quite halfway completed for the S&P 500 constituents: of the 191 reports thus far, 69% are better than a year ago, which (ex-COVID quarters) is average for year-over-year improvement; ‘course the overall “live” S&P P/E of 39.8x remains significantly under-supported by the overall level of earnings, especially given the risk-free 5.147% 3mo T-Bill yield. At Market Trends, save for the “safe-haven” Bond and Swiss Franc, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency for the other six BEGOS components all are falling. For the Econ Baro we’ve July’s Consumer Confidence. And the FOMC begins its two-day meeting toward tomorrow’s Policy Statement.

The week is underway with at present both Oil and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the new parabolic Long trend as having struggled through its first two weeks: when this has happened historically, it does not fare well for the yellow metal over the near term; presently 2390, Gold is just +16 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); we think the 2300s ought hold their ground, however the weekly parabolic flip to Short would come (per this week) at 2308; note as well that Gold’s August cac volume is moving into that for December, with +47 points of fresh premium. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of 14 metrics due as the week unfolds, plus we’ve the FOMC’s Policy Statement come Wednesday.

Only the Spoo is at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today, and BEGOS Markets volatility is pushing toward moderate. The S&P 500 concluded yesterday as mildly “textbook oversold”, albeit its massive overvaluation vis-à-vis earnings remains the ultimate concern (the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 39.3x). Still, by Market Values, the Spoo (in real time) is -107 points “low” per its smooth valuation line. Gold’s weekly parabolic trend looks to conclude its second week as Long even as both weeks have been net down for the yellow metal: more on that in tomorrow’s 767th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And the Econ Baro rounds out its week with metrics including June’s Personal Income/Spending along with the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge of Core PCE Prices.

At present above their respective Neutral Zones for today are the Bond and Swiss Franc, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate-to-robust, the two precious metals already having traced 100% or more of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The -2.3% decline in the S&P 500 yesterday was the Index’s weakest session since 15 December 2022; however per our leading indicator Moneyflow, the selling to a degree lacked the change in the Index, (suggestive of -1.8% change rather than -2.3%); regardless, the S&P remains vastly overvalued vis-à-vis its earnings generation, the “live” futs-adj’d P/E now 39.5x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include June’s Durable Orders, plus the first peek at Q2 GDP, which — given the stark decline in the Baro — may be worse than consensus.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; session volatility is moderate; (of note, the non-BEGOS Yen has traced 112% of its EDTR, which for our other components you can see at Market Ranges). The best current correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets is positive between the Bond and Euro. Leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) still Gold’s 1hr Price Oscillator, and (on a 24-test basis) the Euro’s 2hr MACD. The Spoo gapped down -17.25 points at today’s open: that is (on a points basis) its largest opening down gap since 09 October of last year, following which over the ensuing few weeks price fell further by some -200 points. Thus far for the S&P 500, Q2 Earnings Season is running sub-par based on year-over-year bottom line improvement. The Econ Baro awaits June’s New Home Sales.

At present all three elements of the BEGOS Markets’ Metals Triumvirate are below today’s Neutral Zones, as too is the Spoo; none of the other components are above same, and session volatility is again pushing toward moderate. Gold has moved below last week’s low, but the new parabolic Long trend is well out of daily range from being flipped to Short (that level now 2308 vs. present price of 2389); Gold’s best pure swing rhythm (10-test basis) through yesterday is its 1hr Price Oscillator; and by Market Trends, Gold’s linreg is positive as ’tis for every BEGOS Market, save for Copper and Oil; however, always mind therein those “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. The Econ Baro looks to June’s Existing Home Sales.

Both the Bond and Spoo are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst Silver is below same; volume is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update cites price’s “pop n’ flop” per last week’s run to an All-Time High at 2488 only to have since succumbed to 2396; whereas Gold on its record run reached some +80 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), ’tis in real-time just +20 points above that metric; the other four primary BEGOS Markets are priced relatively close to their respective valuation lines. The Econ Baro is quiet today with 10 items due in the week’s balance including the first peek at Q2 GDP and the “Fed-favoured” Core PCE for June. Q2 earnings reports become more voluminous at the week unfolds: so far for the S&P 500 with 52 constituents having reported, 88% have beaten “estimates” … but just 65% actually improved their bottom lines from the like quarter a year ago; the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 41.1x.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are at present all below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. Gold (2426) is well-off the fresh All-Time High of 2488 established on Wednesday, but ’tis not negative enough to preclude the weekly parabolic trend having provisionally flipped from Short to Long; (more of course in tomorrow’s 766th edition of The Gold Update); by Market Profiles, Gold’s key underlying trading support levels are 2414, 2387 and 2367; still by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) +43 points above its smooth valuation line. Early on in Q2 Earnings Season, of the 45 S&P 500 constituents having thus far reported, whilst 91% having beaten estimates, only 67% have actually improved their year-over-year quarterly results; the fut’s-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P is 41.5x.

The Euro is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are both Gold and the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Yesterday’s -1.4% decline for the S&P 500 was hardly enough to undo the Index’s “textbook overbought” condition as it now enters a 27th straight trading day as such. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve both the Bond and Euro priced nearly in sync with their respective smooth valuation lines, where as Gold shows as +87 points “high”, Oil as +3.24 points “high” and the Spoo as +116 points “high”. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with metrics including July’s Philly Fed Index and June’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators.

Both Silver and the Spoo are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of he BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. Yesterday the S&P 500 completed a 26th consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E is 43.3x. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from August into that for September; so-called “Black Gold” has been in a comparably narrow trading range year-to-date, regularly spanning from the 70s to the low 80s; Oil’s best pure swing rhythm for consistency on a 24-test basis (dating from 25 April through yesterday) is its 2hr Price Oscillator. For the Econ Baro we’ve June’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.

‘Tis a mixed bag at present for the BEGOS Markets with the Bond, Gold and Silver above their respective Neutral Zones for today, whilst below same are the Euro and Oil; session volatility is light. Looking at Market Trends for all eight components, only the Bond and Swiss Franc are in negative linregs. Gold yesterday came within nine points (2445) of its All-Time High (2454); price’s EDTR (see Market ranges) is 33 points such that a fresh high from here (2436) can readily be achieved, even as key weekly technicals still have a negative bent. ‘Tis a busy Econ Baro day with July’s NAHB Housing Index, June’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im pricing, and May’s Business Inventories.

At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper all below today’s Neutral Zones; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update takes a more positive near-term stance on the yellow metal without the 2247-2171 structural support zone having (at least yet) been tested, albeit both the weekly Parabolics and MACD have begun this new week still downside positioned. The Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) +180 points above its smooth valuation line: ’tis been on that side of the ledger from 06 May-to-date, the S&P 500 itself now 24 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought” at a level we deem “extreme” given the daily positionings of the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Stochastics. The Econ Baro’s busy week of 14 incoming metrics starts today with July’s NY State Empire Index.

As in a mirror when ’round this time yesterday when all the elements of the Metals Triumvirate were above the day’s Neutral Zones, today all three are below same; the other BEGOS Markets are within their said Zones, and session volatility with wholesale inflation in the balance is moderate. Despite yesterday’s -0.9% decline in the S&P 500, the Index remains “textbook overbought” now into a 24th consecutive trading day. June’s headline CPI was deflationary, furthering the case for the Fed to move with a rate cut come 31 July, such move reinforced by the plummeting Econ Baro, (which we oft think the Fed doesn’t see); further mention on that in tomorrow’s 765th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And the Baro completes its week with July’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus June’s PPI.

Toward week’s end with much anticipated data on inflation, we’ve all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is again quite light for this hour of the session. The S&P 500 continues to pound out record highs, the mighty Index now 22 days “textbought overbought”, notably the last four days we designate as “extreme”; at our Valuations and Rankings page, amongst the Top Ten largest cap-weighted constituents, just three have P/Es less than 30, and the non-cap-weighted average for those ten is 57.2x. Too, the market-cap of the Index is now $49.3T supported by a liquid U.S. money supply of “only” $21.0T. Today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include June’s CPI, plus late in the session the month’s Treasury Deficit.

We’ve at present both Copper and Oil below their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are outside of same, and volatility is quite light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency: topping the list on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 2hr MACD, Swiss Franc’s 1hr Moneyflow, Bond’s 8hr Moneyflow, Coppers’ 15mn MACD, and the Spoo’s 8hr MACD; on a 24-test basis ’tis both the Spoo’s 4hr Moneyflow and daily Parabolics. Gold, after having crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values and as highlighted in the current edition of The Gold Update), has since slipped back below same; we’re thus getting price whipsawing in concert with having already written of Gold’s technicals and fundamentals being in conflict with one another. Meanwhile, the Econ Baro looks to May’s Wholesale Inventories.

Both Silver and Copper are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold took a bit of a hit yesterday, reminding us that key weekly technicals remain negatively in place (MACD and Parabolics); three weeks remain until the next FOMC Policy Statement, wherein — given the diving Econ Baro — an interest rate cut ought be warranted (assuming too that inflation has ceased per May’s data). At Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) +197 points above its smooth valuation line; the S&P 500 (futs-adj’d “live” P/E now 43.9x) begins a 21st consecutive session as “textbook overbought”. And as previously noted, Q2 Earnings Season officially is underway, as updated daily on that page.

“Down” describes the state of the BEGOS Markets to start the week: save for the Swiss Franc (+0.1%), the seven other components are in the red with just the Bond and Spoo (albeit lower) at present inside today’s Neutral Zones; session volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update still confirms the key weekly measures of both MACD and Parabolics as negative, but that the yellow metal is getting a fundamental bid as therein itemized; too of note, Gold on Friday crossed above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro (which has been pounded into the ground) begins a fairly light week, today featuring May’s Consumer Credit late in the session; (inflation gauges shall be highlighted come Thursday and Friday). And today also begins Q2 Earnings Season.

The two-day BEGOS Market’s stint continues. At present we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper above their respective Neutral Zones for the session; none of the other BEGOS components are below same, and volatility (given two days of movement) is moderate-to-robust, both the Swiss Franc and Copper having traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Gold has regained firmness this week, albeit not enough to change the more near-term negative nature of the weekly technicals; (more on that in tomorrow’s 764th consecutive edition of The Gold Update). The Spoo is up such that the S&P 500 would (at this moment) open at an all-time high of 5540. And the Econ Baro concludes its down week with June’s Payrolls data.