PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

Both the Bond and Gold are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has achieved yet another All-Time High this morning, the June cac thus far trading up to 3124: by Market Values, price is (in real-time) +176 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, a very extreme deviation which can begin to be closed should the “Fed-favoured” inflation of PCE data not be indicative of slowing; ’twill arrive later today for the Econ Baro, and of course, more on it all in tomorrow’s 802nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. As for the other primary BEGOS components’ deviations from Market Values, we show both the Bond and Oil as basically right on their valuation lines, the Euro as +0.0312 points “high” and the Spoo as -200 points “low”. As for Copper’s recent robust rally to all-time highs, by Market Trends, the red metal’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are depicting the early signs of having run out of puff. EuroSide, we move forward Sunday to summer hours.

At present we’ve Gold above today’s Neutral Zone, whilst Oil is below same, (but not before having yesterday reached up into our low 70s’ target area); volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate. Gold’s cac volume is moving from April into that for June, with +29 points of fresh premium (in turn inducing a “faux” new All-Time High). As anticipated, by Market Trends the Swiss Franc’s “Baby Blues” of linreg trend consistency confirmed falling below the key +80% axis: thus we look for lower price levels near-term. Silver at present is spot-on its most volume-dominant price (34.25) of the past fortnight, (see Market Profiles). And a day ahead of the “Fed-favoured” PCE inflation data, today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics include February’s Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.

As was the same case at this time yesterday, Copper is the only BEGOS Market at present outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; by Market Ranges, the red metal already has traced 125% its EDTR to an all-time high at 5.3740; overall session volatility is otherwise light. For our Market Rhythms on a 10-test basis, the current standouts are Gold’s 2hr Moneyflow and both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily price Oscillator and 30mn MACD; on a 24-test basis, our current leaders are again the Yen’s daily price Oscillator along with its daily Parabolics, plus both the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and 15mn Parabolics. We’ve previously mentioned the Euro’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) having broken below the key +80% axis; now provisionally doing the same are those for the Swiss Franc. And for the Econ Baro we await February’s Durable Orders.

At present, the only BEGOS Market outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone is Copper; session volatility is quite light with to this point just an average EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 28%. The Euro yesterday confirmed its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency having broken below their key +80% axis, indicative of lower levels to come. The S&P 500, after having been 19 consecutive trading sessions “textbook oversold” finally unwound that condition yesterday; the +1.8% relief rally has now put the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E up to 42.9x; lurking for April/May is a MACD negative crossover on the S&P’s monthly candles, broadly suggestive of further Index lows as the year unfolds. The Econ Baro gets back into gear today with March’s Consumer Confidence and February’s New Home Sales.

The week starts to find the Bond at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and the Spoo; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The Gold Update applauds the yellow metal’s wonderful uptrend — incorporating yet another All-Time High (3065) this past Thursday — however reiterates our wariness for price to pullback by a few hundred points, typical in the past of similar technical near-term “overvaluations”; (of course fundamentally broad-term, Gold remains well-undervalued). As anticipated, the Spoo is getting a good bid such that the S&P 500 may open nearly a full 1% higher: regardless, the futs-adj’d “live” P/E is 40.0x and the yield (1.347) less than one-third that of the annualized 3mo U.S. T-Bill (4.185%). Too continues Oil’s recent recovery: by its BEGOS Market Value, ‘twould appear price shall move up through its smooth valuation line as the week unfolds towards the anticipated low 70s. ‘Tis a again quiet day for the Econ Baro, the week’s highlight arriving Friday with the “Fed-favoured” PCE reading for February.

When all eight BEGOS Markets are down, we know the Dollar is up; of note across the sea of red, we’ve the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; session volatility is moderate. Specific to the Spoo, its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) of linreg trend consistency confirmed closing above their key -80% axis: this portends (by fib) a run up to at least the 5800s and potentially the 5900s should the February high-March low have a full Golden Ratio retracement; too, the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook oversold” near-term. For Oil, per its “Baby Blues” and Market Magnet, as anticipated, price has moved from the 65s to now being in the 68s with the 69s-low 70s reasonably in the balance. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro until Tuesday, this week’s 16 incoming having flat-lined the economic track rather than see it further weaken; more on it all in tomorrow’s 801st consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

The Euro at present is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets remains light to this hour. Our best correlation currently amongst the five primary BEGOS components is positive between Oil and the Spoo. The “live” P/E of the S&P 500 has (futs-adj’d) moved back above 40 (now 40.2x); the Index’s yield is 1.353% vs. the risk-free 3-month T-Bill’s 4.190%; technically the S&P is now 17 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold” despite fundamentally remaining dangerously overvalued. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with a busy schedule of incoming metrics which include March’s Philly Fed Index, February’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators, and Q4’s Current Account Deficit.

At present, the Euro is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; otherwise, BEGOS Markets’ volatility is again light to this time of the session. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing above their -80% axis, so as already noted yesterday with respect to its Market Magnet, we anticipate higher Oil levels near-term perhaps up into the low 70s; Oil’s best Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis is its 2hr MACD. Elsewhere on that basis, our best currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator as well as that study for 1hr Silver; on a 24-test basis, we’ve again the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator plus the daily Parabolics, along with the Bond’s daily Moneyflow. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. Then at 18:00 GMT comes the “no change” FOMC Policy Statement.

A day ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro has of late gone into a skid; to the extent the Fed reacts to fresh data is doubtful such that they likely stand pat as their stance of late is “there is no race to lower rates”. For today at present we’ve Gold, Silver and Oil above today’s Neutral Zones, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same, and session volatility is again light. Oil’s Market Magnet yesterday confirmed upside penetration by price such that we expect higher levels near-term, albeit there are various structural resistors from 69-73. Too, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) continue to modestly climb from having been below their-80% axis, so that, too, lends some bullishness to the picture. The 2-day S&P rally has not been kept pace with by the Moneyflow, although the Index remains now 15 days “textbook overbought”; rhus once that unwinds, we may see the next spillover. More February metrics hit the Econ Baro today, specifically Housing Starts/Permits, Ex/Im Prices, and IndProd/CapUtil.

The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market presently outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update celebrates its 800th consecutive Saturday edition, still wary of near-term price pullback even as the weekly parabolic trend remains firmly Long; vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line Gold is (in real-time) +123 points “high” (see Market Values). At Market Trends, only Oil and the Spoo are in negative linreg; specific to their cac volumes, that for Oil is moving from April into May whilst for the Spoo from March into June. ‘Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro (plus Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement); 16 metrics come due, those for today including March’s NY State Empire Index and that for NAHB Housing, plus February’s Retail Sales and January’s Business Inventories.

April Gold topped 3000 last evening; spot (currently at a 12-point discount to the futures) has not quite yet made the trip; we’ve expected more of a price pullback which still can materialize; more on it all it tomorrow’s 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present, both the Euro and Swiss Franc are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from March into that for June; come Monday shall be the same for the Spoo. The FinMedia are all aghast that the S&P 500 has just “has entered a correction”, meaning we expect it to now rebound; by deMeadville’s Market Values, the “correction” began three weeks ago (21 February). The Econ Baro wraps its week with March’s UofM Sentiment Survey.

Both the Euro and Silver are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, leading our 10-test basis is the Bond’s 2hr Parabolics, whilst on a 24-test basis are both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. Oil looks poised to move above its Market Magnet: check the website post-close for confirmation thereto, as ‘twould suggest higher price levels near-term after being well down year-to-date; as noted yesterday, Oil is now -4.20 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include February’s PPI.

The only BEGOS Market at present outside (below) today’s Neutral Zone is the Euro; session volatility is light in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are substantively up from year-end; notably that for the Spoo — which was 83 points as of 31 December — is for today 116 points, its highest reading since last 07 August. Looking at Market Values for the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve (in real-time) the Bond as as nearly +3 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, the Euro +0.0522 points “high”, Gold +54 points “high”, Oil -5.89 points “low” and the -476 points “low”, the S&P 500 itself now entering a 12th consecutive trading day as “textbook oversold”. The Econ Baro awaits February’s retail inflation, the CPI’s pace by consensus expected to have slowed a pip or two, albeit still above the Fed’s desired annualized rate; too, late in the session (purportedly) comes the month’s Treasury Budget.

The Euro, Gold and Silver are at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and session volatility is moderate. The S&P’s -2.7% decline yesterday was its worst since the -2.9% fall last 18 December, (prior to which was -3.0% last 05 August); obviously the leading aspects of our deMeadville analytics have been well ahead of the selling, technically by the Spoo’s linreg having already rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and fundamentally of course by the ongoing excessive overvaluation of the S&P given lack of earnings substance; by the Spoo’s Market Profile, overhead volume resistance spans the 5748-5797 zone. All that said, the S&P is now 10 consecutive trading days “textbook oversold”. Again, ’tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro ahead of February’s retail inflation (Wednesday) and wholesale inflation (Thursday).

At present we’ve the Swiss Franc and Silver above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having traced its first “inside” week year-to-date: our near-term bias remains for lower levels, and in real-time Gold’s linreg has rotated to negative (see Market Trends), the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now below their 0% axis; by Market Profiles, Gold’s key line-in-the-sand is the volume-dominant 2927 level; and by Market Values, price in real-time is +66 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro is quiet both today and tomorrow ahead of February inflation data later in the week. Too, the Spoo, Euro and Swiss Franc are due to see their cac volumes roll from March into June come week’s-end.

StateSide ’tis February’s Payrolls day for the Econ Baro (and late in the session January’s Consumer Credit). At present we’ve the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The S&P 500 remains “textbook oversold” such that a so-called “dead cat bounce” may be warranted; however the Index’s broader technical picture is facing a negative crossover on the monthly MACD that seemingly can confirm into April; given the unsustainably high “live” P/E of 40.4x, the S&P ought deservingly suffer rough sledding at least over the near-to-medium term, especially with the short-term U.S. Treasuries yielding better than triple that of the S&P (4.197% vs. 1.343%). ‘Tis to worthy to note that from the S&P’s March 2009 low, the Index has increased by as much as 822%: thus this 7% pullback is essentially noise; indeed were it not for COVID and the monetary creation thereto, the S&P today (5739) would instead be ’round 3000.

Presently we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst Oil is above same; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility for this time has calmed to mostly light. Amongst the five primary BEGOS components, we’ve now a positive correlation between the Euro and Gold, which makes sense give the Dollar’s demise notably this week. Copper’s +4.9% net gain yesterday was the largest since 04 November 2022: at Market Trends, Copper’s rally was sufficient to stall the otherwise falling “Baby Blues” of trend consistency. Meanwhile, that measure for the Spoo continues to drop, albeit the S&P 500 itself is now seven days “textbook oversold”; still, the “live” P/E of the S&P (futs-adj’d) is a horribly high 43.1x. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include January’s Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories, plus the revisions to Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the other five BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper notably having traced 170% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). As has oft been the case of late, we’ve no notable correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. In looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, our 10-test basis cites the Swiss Franc’s 1hr Parabolics as best, whilst on a 24-test basis we show both the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and the Euro’s daily MACD. The Dollar Index has thus far traded today down to its lowest level (105.280) since 11 November, Gold getting a bit of a bid in the balance, albeit to the extent ’tis geo-politically driven, we look for Gold to resume working lower (as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update). The Econ Baro awaits February’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus January’s Factory Orders. Then late in the session brings the Fed’s Tan Tome.

Both the Bond and Swiss Franc are at present above today’s Neutral Zones, whilst below same are Copper and Oil; session volatility for the BEGOS Market’s is moderate, (which you may be noting is the case ’round this time more frequently of late). Yesterday’s whirl back down in the S&P 500 ought not be too much of an eyeopener given the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend having last week rotated from positive to negative, as presently is the stance as well for both Silver and of course Oil over recent weeks; by Market Trends, those for the other five BEGOS components are positive; however Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are in freefall as are those for Copper. Too for the S&P per our Moneyflow page, all three time bases (weekly, monthly, quarterly) point to still lower levels ahead for the Index. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro with then 13 incoming metrics remaining from tomorrow through the week’s balance.

At present the Bond is below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Euro; the BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites the anticipated fall having commenced for the yellow metal; as written: “…should the present selling become more substantive … ‘twould be reasonable to find price reach down into the 2703-2641 zone…” By Market Values, Gold — after having been better than +200 points “high” above its some valuation line — is now +56 points “high”. Notably too by that same metric, the Bond remains nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro basically in line, Oil -4.55 points “low” and the Spoo -104 points “low”. Despite the S&P 500’s +1.6% Friday rally, the Index is actually mildly “textbook oversold”; more meaningfully however, the overall weak level of earnings doesn’t support the “live” P/E of 44.0x. Q4 Earnings Season is complete with 69% of the S&P’s constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago, an above-average showing over 66% for the past eight years. The Econ Baro begins its week of 15 incoming metrics with February’s ISM(Mfg) Index and January’s Construction Spending.

Gold’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80% axis, indicative of still lower prices; more tomorrow in the 798th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Along with the yellow metal at present, Copper, Oil and the Swiss Franc are all below today’s Neutral Zones; above same is the Bond, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is firmly moderate. The Moneyflow of the S&P 500 continues to be weaker than the down move in the Index itself: yesterday’s change in the S&P was -1.6%, however the Money suggested a change of -3.1%: as this is a leading indicator, we look for further selling in the S&P; mind our S&P Moneyflow page. ‘Tis the final day of Q4 Earnings Season. And the Econ Baro wraps its week, indeed the month, with February’s Chi PMI plus January’s Personal Income/Spending and “Fed-favoured” Core PCE.

Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again moderate, although like yesterday ’round this time, Oil has traced but 18% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Gold’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency are provisionally (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis, indicative (upon confirmation) of lower prices near-term: recent missives of The Gold Update have been anticipative of a run down; looking at Market Values in real-time, Gold is +107 points “high” above its smooth valuation line. By that metric for the other four primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly +4 points “high”, the Euro as essentially in line, Oil as -6.25 points “low” and the Spoo now as -76 points “low”. The week’s selling in the S&P 500 has actually pushed it down into “textbook oversold” territory, however the Index remains dangerously high by its “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 44.6x. Included in today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro are January’s Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q4 GDP.

The Bond and the EuroCurrencies are at present below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate, save for Oil which has traced just 15% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For the S&P 500, similar to that from Monday, on Tuesday whilst the Index fell -0.5%, the Moneyflow was instead suggestive of a -1.6% fall, again indicative of further selling still to come (see our S&P Moneyflow page). The Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend confirmed rotating to negative, the “Baby Blues” of trend consistency now having moved below their 0% axis (see Market Trends); should the selling turn more substantive, we’d look in due course for the S&P 5400s. The Bond’s cac volume is rolling from March into June, whilst that for Silver from March into May. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s New Home Sales.

The Bond is above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same are Gold and Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. As anticipated, in real-time the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend line has rotated to negative (see Market Trends) as has been that for Oil for the past few weeks; such trend for the other six BEGOS components is positive, albeit with weakening “Baby Blues” (which depict trend consistency) in decline for the Bond and all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate. The MoneyFlow of the S&P 500 was notably more negative yesterday (-1.2%) than that of the Index itself (-0.5%), suggestive of lower price levels near-term. The Econ Baro looks to February’s Consumer Confidence.

Into the new week we’ve presently both the Euro and Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update (as was the case a week ago) gives a near-term bearish bias strictly by technicals and the deMeadville proprietary measures (see Gold under BEGOS Markets): an affective metric this week shall be Friday’s release of PCE inflation data; either way, Gold completed an eighth consecutive up week for just the fifth time (mutually-exclusive basis) this century and currently priced at 2954 is -46 points below “Golden Goal Two” of “milestone 3000”. Nothing is due today for the Econ Baro. And, barring laggards, this is the final week of Q4 Earnings Season: with 402 S&P 500 constituents thus far having reported, 69% have improved their bottom lines from Q4 of 2023, a somewhat better-than-average improvement pace; problematic remains the extreme 45.2x P/E ratio.

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral range for today; however, session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold indeed made another marginal All-Time High yesterday in reaching 2973 (from the prior 2968); as you well know, the yellow metal — whilst still significantly undervalued vis-à-vis Dollar debasement — is extremely near-term overbought: more in tomorrow’s 797th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been narrowing since a recent peak at 93 points on 07 January: through yesterday, ’tis now 64 points; again, we’re minding the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) for its rotating from positive to negative. The Econ Baro wraps its week with metrics which include January’s Existing Home Sales.

The Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light, (save for the non-BEGOS Yen which has traced 103% of its EDTR, which for the BEGOS components can be seen at Market Ranges). Correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have been messy of late with no notably directional pairings therein. Gold appears poised to set another All-Time High (above 2968) as the day unfolds: the high thus far this session is 2967. The S&P 500 is entering its 21st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” look to slip into negative territory within the next few sessions as the linreg trend rotates to negative, (barring a firm rally). And amongst the metrics due for the Econ Baro are February’s Philly Fed Index and January’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” given the Baro) Indicators.

At present, only Oil is outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is quite light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the best currently are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator as well as the red metal’s 2hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis our leaders are (as oft has been the case) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. The flow into Gold is being maintained, price (2950) in real-time +203 points above its smooth valuation line; today marks the 22nd consecutive trading session for Gold with its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) above their key +80%, a stretch which for any BEGOS Market is remarkable. The Econ Baro looks to January’s Housing Starts/Permits; and late in the session come the Minutes from the FOMC’s 28/29 meeting.

Into the session’s second day, as expected the BEGOS Markets have increased their range traveled: at present below their Neutral Zones are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo, with overall volatility firmly moderate, leaning toward robust as the day develops. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be at an all-time high of 6140 (vs. the actual-to-date of 6128). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time), we show both the Bond and Euro as nearly on their smooth valuation lines, Gold as +185 points “high” above same, Oil -4.35 points “low” and the Spoo as +94 points “high”. With Gold at 2925, the volume-dominant overhead Market Profile resistors are 2931 and 2944. The Econ Baro awaits February’s NY Empire State and NAHB Housing Indices.

The BEGOS Markets begin the week with a two-day session (for Tuesday settlement); at present, we’ve the Bond below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Gold; session volatility already is pushing toward moderate and likely by this time tomorrow shall be mostly robust. The Gold Update graphically depicts last week’s price spike to the new All-Time High of 2968; still, we are cautious of Gold’s near-term extensive stance, seven consecutive up weeks now recorded; price is “textbook overbought” for the last 25 trading days, and (in real-time) ’tis +171 points above it smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too, the inflation scare has us once again musing of the Fed potentially having to revert to raising rates. To this point in Q4 Earnings Season, 361 S&P 500 constituents have reported, of which 70% have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 of 2024: again, that is an above-average rate of improvement, albeit the Index itself remains catastrophically high with the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant 47.8x.

We’ve both Silver and Copper at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver which already has traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market ranges). Barring January being an outlier, the pace of inflation is increasing away for the Fed’s +2.0% preference; more tomorrow in the 796th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; to that end, Gold thus far today has traded up to 2064, just 4 points shy of its 2068 All-Time High achieved this past Tuesday; as a caution, Gold in real-time is +226 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too in real-time, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally moved above their -80%; as previously noted, confirmation of that condition typical brings higher prices near-term. And ’tis a busy day to end the week for the Econ Baro, scheduled metrics being January’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus December’s Business Inventories.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their +80% axis: price already has moved lower into structural support of the 113s; were that to crack, a re-test of January’s lows in the 110s would be in order, especially should inflation be re-accelerating. By that same study, Oil’s “Baby Blues” are mildly curling back upward (-81% in real-time): a settle above -80% would suggest higher price levels; too, Oil’s cac volume is rolling from March into April. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s wholesale inflation data via January’s PPI.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light with January’s retail inflation metrics in the balance. Going ’round the Market Rhythms horn for pure swing consistency, currently the leaders (on a 10-test basis) are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, the Euro’s 30mn Parabolics, Copper’s 15mn Price Oscillator, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) is again the Yen’s daily Parabolics as well as its daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. And at Market Trends, despite the Spoo’s being in a 21-day linreg uptrend, its “Baby Blues” of the trend consistency are dropping for the fourth consecutive session. As noted, the Econ Baro awaits January’s CPI, plus (purportedly) late in the session the Treasury’s Budget. And per Humphrey-Hawkins, FedChair Powell, having testified yesterday before The Senate, concludes today with The House.

Both Silver and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the six other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the past 14 consecutive trading days: there were significantly longer overbought stints during 2024, but ’tis something of which to be aware, especially given the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E now at 48.8x and a yield of 1.243% less than a third of that for the 3mo US T-Bill of 4.228% annualized. At Market Trends we’re minding the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency which are just starting to roll over to the downside with inflation data due both tomorrow and Thursday. And at Market Values the most extreme deviation is Gold’s being (in real-time) +216 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, pricing reaching another All-Time High earlier today at 2968. Again, ’tis a quiet session for the Econ Baro.

The week starts finding at present the Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The Gold Update muses the 3000 level as within reasonable distance by month’s end, however cautions that price has risen for six consecutive weeks (which historically is a bit of an outlier); still, the weekly parabolic trend is Long and we maintain our forecast high for this year at 3262; more immediately, Gold (in real-time) is +200 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); too, price is quite stretched above its 300-day moving average, (nearly +20%). Q4 Earnings Season continues to run at an above average pace for S&P 500 constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago: 71% of the 286 reports thus far have so done; ‘course it remains very problematic that the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is too low to support the extremely high Index itself, (the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this instant 48.4x). ‘Tis a back-loaded week for the Econ Baro with 13 metrics due beginning on Wednesday.

As was the same situation ’round this time yesterday, the Swiss Franc is presently below its Neutral Zone whilst above same is Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 49.6x: ’twill be interesting to see if (i.e. “when”) 50x is reached, the Index as a whole remaining extraordinarily expensive if not outright dangerous. As it ought be a rangy day for the Spoo with January’s Payrolls due, key apices in the Market Profile are 6099, 6086, 6076, 6065, 6047 and 6025. Gold’s remarkable resilience continues: more on that in tomorrow’s 795th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And for the Econ Baro in addition to the jobs data for January, we’ve also February’s UofM Sentiment Survey, and for December both Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Currently we find no compelling correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Still, we can go ’round the horn by their Market Values as follows (in real-time): the Bond is 1^09 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (recall our year-end comment above a potential run up into the 116s, price currently 116^02); the Euro is -0.012 points “low”; Gold — which yesterday cleared the 2900 level for the first time — is +174 points “high” and in a sixth consecutive up week; Oil is -3.34 points “low”; and the Spoo is just +32 points “high”. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Looking at Market Ranges, most of the components’ EDTRs are around the mid-point of where they’ve been from a year ago at this time; those for Gold and the Euro are a bit above their mid-points. At Market Trends, all save for Oil are in 21-day linreg uptrends, including the Spoo even as it is struggling of late to stay upright. And for Market Rhythms on a pure swing basis for consistency, our top four (10-test basis) are currently the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics (see too yesterday’s comment), the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Gold’s 30mn Moneyflow, and the Spoo’s 2hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits January’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus December’s Trade Deficit.

For the second consecutive week the Spoo on Monday has gapped considerably lower, yet by week’s end (in this case just after this morning’s open) come all the way back up to “fill the gap”. Regardless, the Spoo is back on the skids, at present below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones, and session volatility is moderate. The non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s opening price (0.0064910); we mention this as ’tis been a leading study for pure swing consistency in our Market Rhythms going back better than a year. The Econ Baro looks to December’s Factory Orders.

The Dollar is getting a very health bid, such that — save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone) and Oil — the six other BEGOS Markets are in the red and all below said Neutral Zones; volatility is mostly robust. The Gold Update celebrates the yellow metal’s new All-Time High (furthered today up to 2862 basis the April cac) whilst again warning of the extreme overvaluation and fragility of the S&P 500; at this instant (per the Spoo and adjusting for Fair Value) were the stock market to open, the S&P would gap down -1.8% to 5931 from Friday’s 6041 settle. Our best Spoo Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is currently the 6hr MACD. And the Econ Baro commences its week with January’s ISM(Mfg) Index and December’s Construction Spending.

Gold yesterday achieved our anticipated All-Time High in eclipsing the 2802 level (February); the “continuous contract” now being on April (including the 27 points of fresh premium as herein noted in Wednesday’s comment) currently finds price at 2850; more of course tomorrow in the 794th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Range for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility is yet again light. Amongst the correlations of the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Bond and Spoo. And (save for Oil), the seven other components are all in 21-day linreg uptrends (see Market Trends). ‘Tis a highly-visible data day for the Econ Baro, the incoming metrics being Q4’s Employment Cost Index, January’s Chi PMI, and December’s Personal Income/Spending featuring the “Fed-Favoured” Core PCE.

At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve the Bond, Gold and Silver all above their respective Neutral Zone’s for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility is again light to this point. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components finds the Bond basically only -1 point “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.009 points “low”, Gold +91 points “high”, Oil spot on its valuation line, and the Spoo now only +23 points “high”, albeit the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook overbought”; again, our Moneyflow page for the S&P is projecting negatively. Q4 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 now shows 105 constituents having reported of which 72% having beaten their bottom lines from a year ago, an above-average pace, albeit the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 45.7x remains dangerously excessive, now nearly double what ’twas a dozen years ago. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include December’s Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at what (by consensus) may be an stagflationary Q4 GDP (the real result slowing with the inflation element increasing).

All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as too is the Swiss Franc; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from February into that for April, with 27 points of additional premium: note the All-Time High for Spot Gold itself is 2790, whereas ’tis 2802 (February) and 2847 (April); the latter’s present price is 2792. Per Market Rhythms, our top two for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, and (on a 24-test basis) the latter for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Yesterday’s relief rally for the S&P 500 only recouped some 30% of Monday’s monetary outflow; again, mind the S&P 500 Moneyflow page; however, the rally did find the Spoo whipsaw back above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); either way, the Index itself is “textbook overbought” and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 46.5x. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro today with the FOMC’s Policy Statement arriving late in the session (19:00 GMT).

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday’s -1.5% drop in the S&P 500 pales in comparison to its actual monetary outflow which was equivalent to a -11.5% S&P drop: remember, this is a leading indicator suggestive of still lower levels near-to-mid-term for the S&P. The Bond has performed splendidly as foreseen by its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) some two weeks ago. The Metals Triumvirate took quite a thumping yesterday, Silver notably so as the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x (90.3x in real-time); the current edition of The Gold Update mentioned the possibility of Gold “dropping like a stone”, and so it did to start the week with the FOMC and then key inflation data in the balance; nonetheless, Gold’s fresh weekly parabolic Long trend offers some 200 points of downside protection before such trend would reverse. The Econ Baro awaits January’s Consumer Confidence and December’s Durable Orders.

Save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone), “red” is the watchword to begin the week for the seven other BEGOS Markets, all (save for Oil) at present below their respective Neutral Zones; of note, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all down better than -1%. Session volatility is firmly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short-to-Long, whilst citing three key levels for which to watch: 2802 (the next All-Time High), 3000 (as a “milestone”), and then — however not necessarily on this Long run — 3262 as our forecast high for this year (see 04 January’s edition). By Market Values, the Spoo in real-time has provisionally crossed beneath its smooth valuation line: if confirmed by close, we’d anticipate the Spoo revisiting at least the 5900s, (which obviously is but within a day’s trade from here, distance-wise). ‘Tis a key data week for the Econ Baro: mind inflationary readings from both Q4 GDP (Thursday) and the December’s PCE (Friday); today brings December’s New Home Sales.

Save for the Spoo, the seven other BEGOS Markets are higher, within which save for Oil, the other six are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; (thus obviously the Dollar Index is lower); session volatility is firmly moderate. As anticipated, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80%: with price presently in the mid-74s, we ought think at least the 72s are due near-term; by Market Rhythms for Oil, our best currently for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is the 1hr Price Oscillator. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) yesterday recorded a “Hobson Close” in settling on its high trade for the session; thus a lower opening later today wouldn’t be untoward. And the Econ Baro concludes its quiet week, incoming metrics including December’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for the Bond, the seven other BEGOS Markets are lower, those presently below today’s Neutral Zones being Silver and Copper; volatility is quite light. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, we’ve: the Bond nearly -3 points “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.0095 points “low”, Gold +90 points “high”, Oil +4.43 points “high” and the Spoo +49 points “high”. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high yesterday (6101): the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 47.9x and the Index is moderately “textbook overbought”. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally dropped below the key +80% axis, which if confirmed at close suggests still lower price near-term. And the Econ Baro continues its muted week, the only metric due today being last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

GOLD: its weekly parabolic trend as anticipated has provisionally flipped from Short-to-Long; (confirmation comes at week’s settle). For the BEGOS Markets at present, both Copper and Oil are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six components are within same, and volatility is light. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) remain above the key +80% axis, but are kinking lower in real-time. Looking at Market Rhythms, our 10-test leaders for pure swing consistency are currently Gold’s 15mn MACD, 30mn Parabolics, and 2hr MACD, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics, the Euro’s 4hr MACD and Silver’s 4hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis we’ve still the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator and the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits December’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” as the Baro leads them) Indicators for which the consensus is flat (makes some sense given the Baro’s having been essentially flat these past few months).

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues with at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver atop their Neutral Zones whilst Copper and Oil are below same, thus leaving Gold and the Spoo within; volatility is robust (again this covers two days) with only the Spoo not having (yet?) exceeded 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Bond’s “Baby Blues” are accelerating higher: price now 113^24 is up into structural resistance ranging from 113^02-114^23; however should that be eclipsed, it brings to the table a potential run toward 116^08 as first herein mentioned on 31 December per the Bond’s Market Profile at that time. Mind too the “Baby Blues” for both Gold and Oil as such metric for both markets is now above +80% but price beginning to come off a bit; Gold has yet to reach the 2759 weekly parabolic flip-to-Long level. Q4 Earnings Season starts picking up its reporting pace today.

Given the StateSide holiday, the BEGOS Markets enter a two-day session for Tuesday settlement with at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their respective Neutral Zones; none of the other four components are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price having come just four points away from flipping its weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long: the hurdle price to so do this week is 2759 and today’s high already is 2955; we thus expect the provisional flip to Long. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed moving above the key -80% axis, so higher price levels ought be in the offing near-term. Similarly for Oil, we’re watching for its “Baby Blues” to break below the +80% axis from which we’d anticipate lower prices. ‘Tis a very light week for th Econ Baro with just four metrics due commencing on Wednesday; thus Q4 Earnings Season shall get the fundamental hat-tip: thus far ’tis been excellent for the S&P 500 given that 20 of the 23 companies having reported have beaten their bottom lines of a year ago; problematic of course is the “live” P/E remaining dangerously high (in futs-adj’d real-time) at 47.1x.