PRESCIENT COMMENTARY

Copper is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (below) its Neutral range for today; however, session volatility is pushing toward moderate. Gold indeed made another marginal All-Time High yesterday in reaching 2973 (from the prior 2968); as you well know, the yellow metal — whilst still significantly undervalued vis-à-vis Dollar debasement — is extremely near-term overbought: more in tomorrow’s 797th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Spoo’s EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been narrowing since a recent peak at 93 points on 07 January: through yesterday, ’tis now 64 points; again, we’re minding the Spoo’s 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) for its rotating from positive to negative. The Econ Baro wraps its week with metrics which include January’s Existing Home Sales.

The Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light, (save for the non-BEGOS Yen which has traced 103% of its EDTR, which for the BEGOS components can be seen at Market Ranges). Correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components have been messy of late with no notably directional pairings therein. Gold appears poised to set another All-Time High (above 2968) as the day unfolds: the high thus far this session is 2967. The S&P 500 is entering its 21st consecutive trading day as “textbook overbought”; the Spoo’s “Baby Blues” look to slip into negative territory within the next few sessions as the linreg trend rotates to negative, (barring a firm rally). And amongst the metrics due for the Econ Baro are February’s Philly Fed Index and January’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” given the Baro) Indicators.

At present, only Oil is outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is quite light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the best currently are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Copper’s 30mn Price Oscillator as well as the red metal’s 2hr Parabolics; on a 24-test basis our leaders are (as oft has been the case) the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. The flow into Gold is being maintained, price (2950) in real-time +203 points above its smooth valuation line; today marks the 22nd consecutive trading session for Gold with its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) above their key +80%, a stretch which for any BEGOS Market is remarkable. The Econ Baro looks to January’s Housing Starts/Permits; and late in the session come the Minutes from the FOMC’s 28/29 meeting.

Into the session’s second day, as expected the BEGOS Markets have increased their range traveled: at present below their Neutral Zones are the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Copper, whilst above same are Gold, Silver, Oil and the Spoo, with overall volatility firmly moderate, leaning toward robust as the day develops. Were the S&P 500 to open at this instant, ‘twould be at an all-time high of 6140 (vs. the actual-to-date of 6128). Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components (in real-time), we show both the Bond and Euro as nearly on their smooth valuation lines, Gold as +185 points “high” above same, Oil -4.35 points “low” and the Spoo as +94 points “high”. With Gold at 2925, the volume-dominant overhead Market Profile resistors are 2931 and 2944. The Econ Baro awaits February’s NY Empire State and NAHB Housing Indices.

The BEGOS Markets begin the week with a two-day session (for Tuesday settlement); at present, we’ve the Bond below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same is Gold; session volatility already is pushing toward moderate and likely by this time tomorrow shall be mostly robust. The Gold Update graphically depicts last week’s price spike to the new All-Time High of 2968; still, we are cautious of Gold’s near-term extensive stance, seven consecutive up weeks now recorded; price is “textbook overbought” for the last 25 trading days, and (in real-time) ’tis +171 points above it smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too, the inflation scare has us once again musing of the Fed potentially having to revert to raising rates. To this point in Q4 Earnings Season, 361 S&P 500 constituents have reported, of which 70% have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 of 2024: again, that is an above-average rate of improvement, albeit the Index itself remains catastrophically high with the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant 47.8x.

We’ve both Silver and Copper at present above today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light, save for Silver which already has traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market ranges). Barring January being an outlier, the pace of inflation is increasing away for the Fed’s +2.0% preference; more tomorrow in the 796th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update; to that end, Gold thus far today has traded up to 2064, just 4 points shy of its 2068 All-Time High achieved this past Tuesday; as a caution, Gold in real-time is +226 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Too in real-time, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally moved above their -80%; as previously noted, confirmation of that condition typical brings higher prices near-term. And ’tis a busy day to end the week for the Econ Baro, scheduled metrics being January’s Retail Sales, Ex/Im Prices and IndProd/CapUtil, plus December’s Business Inventories.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed settling below their +80% axis: price already has moved lower into structural support of the 113s; were that to crack, a re-test of January’s lows in the 110s would be in order, especially should inflation be re-accelerating. By that same study, Oil’s “Baby Blues” are mildly curling back upward (-81% in real-time): a settle above -80% would suggest higher price levels; too, Oil’s cac volume is rolling from March into April. And the Econ Baro awaits January’s wholesale inflation data via January’s PPI.

At present, all eight BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is light with January’s retail inflation metrics in the balance. Going ’round the Market Rhythms horn for pure swing consistency, currently the leaders (on a 10-test basis) are the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, the Euro’s 30mn Parabolics, Copper’s 15mn Price Oscillator, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; too, (on a 24-test basis) is again the Yen’s daily Parabolics as well as its daily Price Oscillator, plus the Euro’s 4hr MACD. And at Market Trends, despite the Spoo’s being in a 21-day linreg uptrend, its “Baby Blues” of the trend consistency are dropping for the fourth consecutive session. As noted, the Econ Baro awaits January’s CPI, plus (purportedly) late in the session the Treasury’s Budget. And per Humphrey-Hawkins, FedChair Powell, having testified yesterday before The Senate, concludes today with The House.

Both Silver and Copper are at present below today’s Neutral Zones; the six other BEGOS Markets are within same, and session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 is now “textbook overbought” through the past 14 consecutive trading days: there were significantly longer overbought stints during 2024, but ’tis something of which to be aware, especially given the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E now at 48.8x and a yield of 1.243% less than a third of that for the 3mo US T-Bill of 4.228% annualized. At Market Trends we’re minding the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency which are just starting to roll over to the downside with inflation data due both tomorrow and Thursday. And at Market Values the most extreme deviation is Gold’s being (in real-time) +216 points “high” above its smooth valuation line, pricing reaching another All-Time High earlier today at 2968. Again, ’tis a quiet session for the Econ Baro.

The week starts finding at present the Swiss Franc below today’s Neutral Zone, whilst above same are both Gold and Silver; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is moderate. The Gold Update muses the 3000 level as within reasonable distance by month’s end, however cautions that price has risen for six consecutive weeks (which historically is a bit of an outlier); still, the weekly parabolic trend is Long and we maintain our forecast high for this year at 3262; more immediately, Gold (in real-time) is +200 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); too, price is quite stretched above its 300-day moving average, (nearly +20%). Q4 Earnings Season continues to run at an above average pace for S&P 500 constituents bettering their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago: 71% of the 286 reports thus far have so done; ‘course it remains very problematic that the overall level of S&P 500 earnings is too low to support the extremely high Index itself, (the “live” futs-adj’d P/E at this instant 48.4x). ‘Tis a back-loaded week for the Econ Baro with 13 metrics due beginning on Wednesday.

As was the same situation ’round this time yesterday, the Swiss Franc is presently below its Neutral Zone whilst above same is Copper; session volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 49.6x: ’twill be interesting to see if (i.e. “when”) 50x is reached, the Index as a whole remaining extraordinarily expensive if not outright dangerous. As it ought be a rangy day for the Spoo with January’s Payrolls due, key apices in the Market Profile are 6099, 6086, 6076, 6065, 6047 and 6025. Gold’s remarkable resilience continues: more on that in tomorrow’s 795th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. And for the Econ Baro in addition to the jobs data for January, we’ve also February’s UofM Sentiment Survey, and for December both Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.

The Swiss Franc is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly light. Currently we find no compelling correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components. Still, we can go ’round the horn by their Market Values as follows (in real-time): the Bond is 1^09 points “high” above its smooth valuation line (recall our year-end comment above a potential run up into the 116s, price currently 116^02); the Euro is -0.012 points “low”; Gold — which yesterday cleared the 2900 level for the first time — is +174 points “high” and in a sixth consecutive up week; Oil is -3.34 points “low”; and the Spoo is just +32 points “high”. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include Q4’s Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold above today’s Neutral Zones; below same is the Spoo, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Looking at Market Ranges, most of the components’ EDTRs are around the mid-point of where they’ve been from a year ago at this time; those for Gold and the Euro are a bit above their mid-points. At Market Trends, all save for Oil are in 21-day linreg uptrends, including the Spoo even as it is struggling of late to stay upright. And for Market Rhythms on a pure swing basis for consistency, our top four (10-test basis) are currently the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics (see too yesterday’s comment), the Bond’s daily Moneyflow, Gold’s 30mn Moneyflow, and the Spoo’s 2hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits January’s ADP Employment data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus December’s Trade Deficit.

For the second consecutive week the Spoo on Monday has gapped considerably lower, yet by week’s end (in this case just after this morning’s open) come all the way back up to “fill the gap”. Regardless, the Spoo is back on the skids, at present below its Neutral Zone for today, as too are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold; the other BEGOS Markets are within their respective Neutral Zones, and session volatility is moderate. The non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s opening price (0.0064910); we mention this as ’tis been a leading study for pure swing consistency in our Market Rhythms going back better than a year. The Econ Baro looks to December’s Factory Orders.

The Dollar is getting a very health bid, such that — save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone) and Oil — the six other BEGOS Markets are in the red and all below said Neutral Zones; volatility is mostly robust. The Gold Update celebrates the yellow metal’s new All-Time High (furthered today up to 2862 basis the April cac) whilst again warning of the extreme overvaluation and fragility of the S&P 500; at this instant (per the Spoo and adjusting for Fair Value) were the stock market to open, the S&P would gap down -1.8% to 5931 from Friday’s 6041 settle. Our best Spoo Market Rhythm for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is currently the 6hr MACD. And the Econ Baro commences its week with January’s ISM(Mfg) Index and December’s Construction Spending.

Gold yesterday achieved our anticipated All-Time High in eclipsing the 2802 level (February); the “continuous contract” now being on April (including the 27 points of fresh premium as herein noted in Wednesday’s comment) currently finds price at 2850; more of course tomorrow in the 794th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve the Bond below its Neutral Range for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; session volatility is yet again light. Amongst the correlations of the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is negative between the Bond and Spoo. And (save for Oil), the seven other components are all in 21-day linreg uptrends (see Market Trends). ‘Tis a highly-visible data day for the Econ Baro, the incoming metrics being Q4’s Employment Cost Index, January’s Chi PMI, and December’s Personal Income/Spending featuring the “Fed-Favoured” Core PCE.

At present for the BEGOS Markets we’ve the Bond, Gold and Silver all above their respective Neutral Zone’s for today, whilst below same is Oil; session volatility is again light to this point. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components finds the Bond basically only -1 point “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.009 points “low”, Gold +91 points “high”, Oil spot on its valuation line, and the Spoo now only +23 points “high”, albeit the S&P 500 itself remains “textbook overbought”; again, our Moneyflow page for the S&P is projecting negatively. Q4 Earnings Season for the S&P 500 now shows 105 constituents having reported of which 72% having beaten their bottom lines from a year ago, an above-average pace, albeit the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 45.7x remains dangerously excessive, now nearly double what ’twas a dozen years ago. Today’s incoming metrics for the Econ Baro include December’s Pending Home Sales, plus the first peek at what (by consensus) may be an stagflationary Q4 GDP (the real result slowing with the inflation element increasing).

All three elements of the Metals Triumvirate are at present below today’s Neutral Zones, as too is the Swiss Franc; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Gold’s cac volume is rolling from February into that for April, with 27 points of additional premium: note the All-Time High for Spot Gold itself is 2790, whereas ’tis 2802 (February) and 2847 (April); the latter’s present price is 2792. Per Market Rhythms, our top two for pure swing consistency are (on a 10-test basis) the Bond’s daily Moneyflow and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator, and (on a 24-test basis) the latter for the Yen plus its daily Parabolics. Yesterday’s relief rally for the S&P 500 only recouped some 30% of Monday’s monetary outflow; again, mind the S&P 500 Moneyflow page; however, the rally did find the Spoo whipsaw back above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); either way, the Index itself is “textbook overbought” and the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 46.5x. Nothing is due for the Econ Baro today with the FOMC’s Policy Statement arriving late in the session (19:00 GMT).

We’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver below today’s Neutral Zones; Oil is above same, and BEGOS Markets’ volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday’s -1.5% drop in the S&P 500 pales in comparison to its actual monetary outflow which was equivalent to a -11.5% S&P drop: remember, this is a leading indicator suggestive of still lower levels near-to-mid-term for the S&P. The Bond has performed splendidly as foreseen by its “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) some two weeks ago. The Metals Triumvirate took quite a thumping yesterday, Silver notably so as the Gold/Silver ratio is back above 90x (90.3x in real-time); the current edition of The Gold Update mentioned the possibility of Gold “dropping like a stone”, and so it did to start the week with the FOMC and then key inflation data in the balance; nonetheless, Gold’s fresh weekly parabolic Long trend offers some 200 points of downside protection before such trend would reverse. The Econ Baro awaits January’s Consumer Confidence and December’s Durable Orders.

Save for the Bond (at present above today’s Neutral Zone), “red” is the watchword to begin the week for the seven other BEGOS Markets, all (save for Oil) at present below their respective Neutral Zones; of note, Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all down better than -1%. Session volatility is firmly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price’s weekly parabolic trend having flipped from Short-to-Long, whilst citing three key levels for which to watch: 2802 (the next All-Time High), 3000 (as a “milestone”), and then — however not necessarily on this Long run — 3262 as our forecast high for this year (see 04 January’s edition). By Market Values, the Spoo in real-time has provisionally crossed beneath its smooth valuation line: if confirmed by close, we’d anticipate the Spoo revisiting at least the 5900s, (which obviously is but within a day’s trade from here, distance-wise). ‘Tis a key data week for the Econ Baro: mind inflationary readings from both Q4 GDP (Thursday) and the December’s PCE (Friday); today brings December’s New Home Sales.

Save for the Spoo, the seven other BEGOS Markets are higher, within which save for Oil, the other six are at present above today’s Neutral Zones; (thus obviously the Dollar Index is lower); session volatility is firmly moderate. As anticipated, Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their key +80%: with price presently in the mid-74s, we ought think at least the 72s are due near-term; by Market Rhythms for Oil, our best currently for pure swing consistency (10-test basis) is the 1hr Price Oscillator. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) yesterday recorded a “Hobson Close” in settling on its high trade for the session; thus a lower opening later today wouldn’t be untoward. And the Econ Baro concludes its quiet week, incoming metrics including December’s Existing Home Sales.

Save for the Bond, the seven other BEGOS Markets are lower, those presently below today’s Neutral Zones being Silver and Copper; volatility is quite light. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary components, we’ve: the Bond nearly -3 points “low” below its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.0095 points “low”, Gold +90 points “high”, Oil +4.43 points “high” and the Spoo +49 points “high”. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high yesterday (6101): the “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E at this instant is 47.9x and the Index is moderately “textbook overbought”. At Market Trends, Oil’s “Baby Blues” have provisionally dropped below the key +80% axis, which if confirmed at close suggests still lower price near-term. And the Econ Baro continues its muted week, the only metric due today being last week’s Initial Jobless Claims.

GOLD: its weekly parabolic trend as anticipated has provisionally flipped from Short-to-Long; (confirmation comes at week’s settle). For the BEGOS Markets at present, both Copper and Oil are below today’s Neutral Zones; the other six components are within same, and volatility is light. Oil’s “Baby Blues” (see Market Trends) remain above the key +80% axis, but are kinking lower in real-time. Looking at Market Rhythms, our 10-test leaders for pure swing consistency are currently Gold’s 15mn MACD, 30mn Parabolics, and 2hr MACD, plus the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics, the Euro’s 4hr MACD and Silver’s 4hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis we’ve still the Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and daily Parabolics, plus Silver’s 1hr Price Oscillator and the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics. The Econ Baro awaits December’s Leading (i.e. “lagging” as the Baro leads them) Indicators for which the consensus is flat (makes some sense given the Baro’s having been essentially flat these past few months).

The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets continues with at present the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver atop their Neutral Zones whilst Copper and Oil are below same, thus leaving Gold and the Spoo within; volatility is robust (again this covers two days) with only the Spoo not having (yet?) exceeded 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Bond’s “Baby Blues” are accelerating higher: price now 113^24 is up into structural resistance ranging from 113^02-114^23; however should that be eclipsed, it brings to the table a potential run toward 116^08 as first herein mentioned on 31 December per the Bond’s Market Profile at that time. Mind too the “Baby Blues” for both Gold and Oil as such metric for both markets is now above +80% but price beginning to come off a bit; Gold has yet to reach the 2759 weekly parabolic flip-to-Long level. Q4 Earnings Season starts picking up its reporting pace today.

Given the StateSide holiday, the BEGOS Markets enter a two-day session for Tuesday settlement with at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all above their respective Neutral Zones; none of the other four components are below same, and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update highlights price having come just four points away from flipping its weekly parabolic trend from Short-to-Long: the hurdle price to so do this week is 2759 and today’s high already is 2955; we thus expect the provisional flip to Long. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency (see Market Trends) confirmed moving above the key -80% axis, so higher price levels ought be in the offing near-term. Similarly for Oil, we’re watching for its “Baby Blues” to break below the +80% axis from which we’d anticipate lower prices. ‘Tis a very light week for th Econ Baro with just four metrics due commencing on Wednesday; thus Q4 Earnings Season shall get the fundamental hat-tip: thus far ’tis been excellent for the S&P 500 given that 20 of the 23 companies having reported have beaten their bottom lines of a year ago; problematic of course is the “live” P/E remaining dangerously high (in futs-adj’d real-time) at 47.1x.

The Euro, Swiss Franc and Silver are all at present below today’s Neutral Zones, whilst above same are both Copper and Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light. Yesterday, Gold nearly eclipsed the week’s parabolic (2763) which would flip such weekly trend from Short-to-Long: Gold’s “high if an up day” for today is 2775, so ’tis within range to still get there; more in tomorrow’s 792nd consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. The Bond’s “Baby Blues” in real-time are above the key -80% axis; should that be confirmed on close, we’d seek higher Bond prices near-term with the 114s in mind; we’d mentioned the 116s a few weeks back, however they’ve since come off the Bond’s 10-day Market Profile: the low 113s to high 114s now appear initially resistive. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with December’s Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.

Silver, Copper and the Spoo are all at present above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other five BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is pushing toward moderate. Leading our Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency on a 10-test basis are the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics, too Silver’s 4hr Parabolics, and the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics; on a 24-test basis we’ve again for the Yen both its daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator. Mind at Market Trend’s the Bond’s “Baby Blues” as they’re (finally) making an up move: a confirm above the -80% axis would be suggestive of still high prices. And ’tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, its eight incoming metrics including January’s Philly Fed and NAHB Housing Indexes, December’s Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and November’s Business Inventories.

The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is light. We’ve noted the last few weeks the ongoing low level of the Bond’s “Baby Blues” for trend consistency (see Market Trends) as we continue to await their breaking above the -80% axis which would then be indicative of higher price levels near-term; as for the whole BEGOS bunch by trend disposition, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo all are in 21-day linreg downtrends, whilst the Metals Triumvirate along with Oil are in uptrends. Core wholesale inflation for December (PPI) was flat; today the Econ Baro looks to the month’s retail inflation (CPI); due too is January’s NY State Empire Index. And late in the session comes the release of the Fed’s Tan Tome.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Oil; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Notably for Gold, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been decreasing: ’twas in the upper 40s in late November whereas today’s expectation is 35 points; the opposite is true for the Spoo, which in mid-December was as low as 42 but is 87 points for today. Going ’round the Market Values horn (in real-time) for the five primary BEGOS components: the Bond shows as nearly -5.5 points “low” relative to its smooth valuation line, the Euro as -1.0195 points “low”, Gold as +25 points “high”, Oil as +9.08 points “high”, and the Spoo as -144 points “low”. December’s inflation puzzle starts today for the Econ Baro at the wholesale level with the month’s PPI; (too, still due from yesterday is the Treasury Budget).

The week begins with at present the Bond, Euro, Gold and Spoo all below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is well-moderate en route to becoming robust as the day unfolds: indeed Oil already has traded in excess of 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update points to the yellow metal’s nearing the end of its weekly parabolic Short trend, (now entering its tenth-consecutive week as such), barring overly StateSide inflationary data due both tomorrow and Wednesday; too from a short-term trading perspective, our report highlights the recent “in hindsight” success of Gold’s one-hour Price Oscillator as a trading study to monitor. Oil’s cac volume is rolling from February into that for March. And ’tis a very busy week for the Econ Baro with 18 incoming metrics on the slate, beginning today with December’s Treasury Budget.

Gold is presently the sole BEGOS Market above its Neutral Zone for trading: price is over 2700 for the first time since 13 December. The balance of the BEGOS components are within today’s respective Neutral Zones, and volatility is light. By Market Profiles, the Spoo (5947) is trading just below its most dominantly-traded price by volume across the past fortnight of 5951; the Euro (1.3200) is nearly on same (1.0330). For correlation amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the current best has shifted from being positive Euro/Spoo (see 08 Jan comment) to now negative Oil/Spoo. And at Market Trends, Copper’s linreg has (in real-time) provisionally rotated to positive: of the eight BEGOS Markets, the only other component with positive linreg remains Oil. The Econ Baro awaits January’s UofM Sentiment Survey, plus December’s Payrolls data (per Labor).

StateSide equities are closed today, however the BEGOS Markets are running with early closures for both the Spoo (14:30 GMT) and Bond (18:15 GMT). At present, both the Bond and Copper aabove up their respective Neutral Zones for today; the Euro is below same, and volatility is light. Looking at Market Rhythms: on a 10-test basis, the best of the bunch are currently the Euro’s 4hr Parabolics and 15mn MACD, along with the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator; the latter two also rank best on a 24-test basis. And whilst ’tis too soon to get a read on Q4 Earnings Season, of the 20 companies having thus far reported — none of which are S&P 500 constituents — 70% (14) have beaten “estimates”, but only 50% (10) have actually bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P at this instant is 45.9x.

All eight BEGOS Markets at this moment are above water; the sole one above its Neutral Zone for today is Copper; session volatility is quite light. At Market Trends, we still await the Bond’s
“Baby Blues” to turn the corner up through their -80% axis. Too, per correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS Markets, the best currently is positive between the Euro and Spoo. Yesterday, the S&P 500 dropped a net -1.1%; however its Moneyflow suggested a fall of -3.8% to be more in order: as this is a leading indicator, we look for lower S&P levels near-term; the Spoo (currently 5960) by its its Market Profile shows 5935 as its last bastion of near-term support. The Econ Baro looks to December’s ADP Employment data, plus November’s Wholesale Inventories and (late in the session) Consumer Credit; with the StateSide equities not trading tomorrow, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims also come into the Baro today. The FOMC’s 18/19 Meeting Minutes shall be released.

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all at present above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is again pushing toward moderate. By Silver’s Market Rhythms on the daily period, both the Parabolics and MACD triggered Long signals effective today’s open (30.485). We’ve not mentioned a primary BEGOS Markets’ correlation in recent weeks given the components have been rather scattered through transition into New Year; that noted, by Market Trends, (still save for Oil) the other seven markets remain in 21-day linear regression downtrends; therein we continue to monitor the Bond’s “Baby Blues” in awaiting their moving above the key -80% axis; indeed by Market Values, th Bond (in real-time) is better than -4.5 points below its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s ISM(Svc) Index and November’s Trade Deficit.

Both the Bond and Copper are presently below their respective Neutral Zones for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility to this point is pushing towards moderate: all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate, along with Oil, have already exceeded 50% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update cites our selected high for this year: 3262 using the “expected yearly trading range” method; that noted, Gold still continues to run its weekly parabolic Short trend, now entering a ninth week. From a Market Rhythms perspective, Gold’s 1hr Parabolics study has been indicative of worthy results mid-December-to-date (24-test basis). Some 12 metrics are due this week for the Econ Baro, beginning today with November’s Factory Orders. And Q4 Earnings Season commences.

The Swiss Franc is at present above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is Copper; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light following it being robust for yesterday’s session. Going ’round the Market Values horn for the five primary BEGOS components in real-time, we’ve the Bond as nearly -3.5 points “low” vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, the Euro -0.022 “low”, Gold just +16 points “high”, Oil +4.11 points “high” and the Spoo -94 points “low”. At Market Trends, its remains that — save for Oil — the other seven BEGOS Markets are in negative linreg trends. Of note therein, the Bond’s “Baby Blues” are just barely curving upward (-88% in real-time): once they confirm a close above the -80% axis, that can bring the run up into the 116s (current level is 114^04). The Econ Baro concludes another quiet week with December’s ISM(Mfg) Index.

2025’s trading commences finding all eight BEGOS markets at present in the black, those notably above today’s Neutral Zones being the Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and the Spoo; session volatility is moderate-to-robust. As we’ll see in the next Gold Update for this Saturday, the yellow metal was the best BEGOS performer of 2024, +27.4%. The futs-adj’d “live” P/E of the S&P 500 is 46.4x and the yield 1.274% versus 4.208% annualized for the risk-free 3-month U.S. T-bill, (albeit as mentioned in the current edition of The Gold Update, “Old Yeller” faces an ‘event of default’ come mid-month barring another Congressional bailout). The Bond (113^28) has just climbed above 113^26, its most dominantly-traded price across the past fortnight: as mentioned in Tuesday’s comment, there’s room for the Bond to move up into the 116s. The Econ Baro get’s 2025 underway, today’s incoming metrics including November’s Construction Spending.

Into the year’s final stint we go, with at present both the Bond and Oil above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility again is light. We’d noted yesterday the Bond’s being quite extended below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) such that a rise into New Year wouldn’t be untoward: mind at Market Trends the Bond’s “Baby Blues” of trend consistency to support a higher price upon their eclipsing up through the -80% axis; (in real-time they are -91%); for price itself currently 114^16, by its Market Profile there is room to move all the way up to volume resistance at 116^08. The S&P 500 enters its last trading day of the year with a “live” (futs-adj’d) P/E of 46.0x, still dangerously high by any historical yardstick. On to 2025, et Bonne Anneé à Tous!

Both Gold and the Spoo are presently below today’s Neutral Zones; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same. and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to price’s ongoing technical negativity, however stating it being more hesitant than in a downtrend; too from a century-to-date perspective (23 completed years), Gold has a tendency to trade net higher for the final two days of the year, whereas the S&P 500 has a tendency to trade net lower. At Market Trends, with the exception of Oil, the seven other BEGOS components are all in negative linreg trends from a month ago-to-date. An interesting trade for which to watch into New Year is the Bond: ’tis (in real-time) nearly -5 full points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); typical downside deviation extends to around -3 points. With nothing on its slate for tomorrow, the Econ Baro completes its year today with December’s Chicago PMI and November’s Pending Home Sales.

At present, the Swiss Franc is the only BEGOS Market outside (below) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility to this hour continues quite light. By Market Rhythms, the current best for pure swing consistency are — on a 10-test basis — the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Parabolics and daily Price Oscillator, Gold’s 8hr Parabolics, and the Spoo’s 15mn Moneyflow, whilst — on a 24-test basis — we’ve again those same two Yen and Spoo studies, plus Gold’s 1hr Parabolics and the Swiss Franc’s 2hr MACD. The Market Magnets of all three elements of the Metals Triumvirate appear poised for penetration to the upside, meaning prices may get a lift into New Year: we’ll take at look at those in tomorrow’s 789th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

Gold is the sole BEGOS Market at present outside (above) today’s Neutral Zone; session volatility is again very light. That notwithstanding, Tuesday’s +1.1% gain for the S&P 500 now places the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) at an amazing 48.7x: ’tis double what might be considered an acceptable modern-day norm, and triple that taught in B-school for the norm during a bull market; again, the +$7T printed to counter the negative effects of COVID fungibly found its way into the S&P, the market-cap for which increased by same. True, risk-free U.S. debt is yielding triple that of the S&P’s paltry 1.234%, but risk-full stocks remain the “sexy” place to be; mind too our S&P 500 “Valuations & Rankings” page. The Econ Baro wraps its week today with last Saturday’s Initial Jobless Claims.

The abbreviated trading session presently finds all eight BEGOS Markets within their respective Neutral Zones for today, and session volatility is very light. Looking at Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency, on a 10-test basis the leaders currently are the non-BEGOS Yen’s daily Price Oscillator and Parabolics, plus Gold’s 8hr Parabolics; for the 24-test basis ’tis the same two Yen studies along with Gold’s 4hr Moneyflow, notably which just flipped to Short at today’s open. At Market Trends (in real-time) six of the eight BEGOS Components are in negative linregs, the only two positive being for Copper and Oil. And at Market Values, two notable deviations are the Bond’s being nearly -4 points below its smooth valuation line and the Euro -0.018 points below same. No incoming metrics are due today for the Econ Baro. Joyeux Noël d’ici à Tous !

As the first of two abbreviated trading weeks begins, we’ve at present both Silver and the Spoo above today’s Neutral Zones; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is light. The Gold Update points to the disparate inflation reads wherein the BLS reads it as increasing whilst the BEA sees it as decreasing; Gold itself remains in its weekly parabolic Short trend, perhaps en route to test the upper 2400s given the expanding negativity of the weekly MACD. Moneyflow into the S&P 500 continues to be robust, our page thereto so showing for each of the weekly, monthly and quarterly charts, even as the “live” P/E remains an unsustainable 47.3x. The Econ Baro kicks off its subdued week with December’s Consumer Confidence, plus November’s Durable Orders and New Home Sales.

Gold is presently above its Neutral Zone for today, whilst below same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is light-to-moderate. Looking at correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best currently is positive between the Euro and the Spoo; the latter’s linear regression trend (see Market Trends) appears poised to rotate from positive to negative, if not today, then come Monday; again, prior to the S&P 500’s Wednesday rout, the daily Parabolics on the March Spoo already had flipped from Long to Short effective last Monday’s open. November’s Leading Indicators indeed came in as positive despite the “consensus” for a negative reading: as herein penned yesterday, they “…are supposed to be mildly negative, but an “unch” or mildly positive read wouldn’t surprise us given the Baro’s recent resilience”; ’tis why we regularly refer to them as “lagging” indicators given the Baro leads them. And for today, incoming metrics include November’s Personal Income/Spending along with the “Fed-favoured” inflation read via the Core PCE. Our November inflation table shall thus be complete for tomorrow’s 788th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update.

Following an across-the-board down day for all eight BEGOS Markets, we’ve at present the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Spoo all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; the other three components are within same, and volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold notably already having traded 90% of today’s EDTR (see Market Ranges). Prior to yesterday’s downdraft for the S&P, we’d herein penned early Tuesday that “…for the S&P … ’tis so overcooked to this point both fundamentally and technically that some degree of downside hoovering awaits; perhaps ’twill be a ‘sell the priced-in’ Fed announcement…” which indeed resulted: ’twas the S&P’s fifth-worst one-day points slide (-178) in its history and on a percentage basis (-2.9%) in nearly the 99th percentile of worst one-day losses. In midst of it all, by Market Values, the Spoo reached back down to its smooth valuation line. Incoming metrics for the Econ Baro today include Q3’s final GDP read, December’s Philly Fed Index, plus November’s Existing Home Sales and Leading (i.e. “lagging”) indicators: that latter are supposed to be mildly negative, but an “unch” or mildly positive read wouldn’t surprise us given the Baro’s recent resilience.

Copper is at present below its Neutral Zone for today, whilst above same is the Spoo; BEGOS Markets’ volatility is quiet ahead of the Fed. The S&P 500 is now 29 trading days “textbook overbought” and indeed so through 44 of the past 48; the “live” P/E (futs-adj’d) is at this instant 48.4x; technically, the daily Parabolics on the March Spoo are into their fourth Short day, and the 12hr MACD continues to sink, now at its lowest level since the negative crossover was confirmed from 09 December; and by Market Values, the Spoo in (real-time) is +163 points above it smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS Markets are reasonably near their own like metric. Even as inflation is increasing, the Fed is expected to cut its Funds Rate by -25bps, the FOMC Policy Statement due at 19:00 GMT, prior to which the Econ Baro receives November’s Housing Starts/Permits and Q3’s Current Account Balance.

Copper is presently below its Neutral Zone for today; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is again light. Per our MoneyFlow page, the S&P 500 has received substantive inflow across all three of our time measures (weekly, monthly. quarterly): the inference thus is bullish for the S&P; however, ’tis so overcooked to this point both fundamentally and technically that some degree of downside hoovering awaits; perhaps ’twill be a “sell the priced-in” Fed announcement tomorrow; as noted yesterday, the Spoo’s daily Parabolics have just flipped to Short. For the Econ Baro today we’ve December’s NAHB Housing Index, November’s Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus October’s Business Inventories.

The busy week begins with the Swiss Franc at present the sole BEGOS Market outside (above) its Neutral Zone for today; session volatility is light. The Gold Update graphically depicts last week’s “Spike n’ Sink”, price initially driven up geopolitically and on the CPI, then back down on the PPI and a bit of Fed doubt; highlighted therein is inflation being back on the increase, the Dollar in turn getting the bid throughout last week. As to notions of an S&P 500 “Santa Claus Rally”, across the past 44 years for these seven trading days leading up to Christmas ’tis not occurred in 13 of them (i.e. ’tis not automatic); indeed the Spoo’s daily Parabolics flipped to Short effective today’s open. Cac volume for the Spoo is rolling from December into that for March, and for Oil from January into February. For the Econ Baro there are 19 metrics due this the week, 10 of which arrive prior to Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement; today brings December’s NY State Empire Index.

All eight BEGOS Markets are presently within today’s Neutral Zones, and volatility is very light. The Yen’s Long signal herein cited on 03 December is provisionally failing: ’tis based upon the daily Price Oscillator dominating the Market Rhythms for pure swing consistency (on a 24-test basis); such signal would now swing to Short. The S&P 500 yesterday produced a “Hobson Close” in settling on its low level for the session: this last occurred on 26 August 2022, following which the S&P some seven weeks later was down by more than -13%, albeit we don’t give such events predictive shrift, whereas the futs-adj’d “live” P/E for the S&P is an unsustainable 46.4x. ‘Tis rollover for the currencies from the December cacs to those for March. And the Econ Baro wraps its week with November’s Ex/Im Prices.

The Euro, Silver and Copper are at present all above their respective Neutral Zones for today; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is mostly light. Yesterday’s +0.8% rise in the S&P 500 is “media-credited” to the CPI — whilst yet again above the Fed’s desired pace — having met “expectations” in turn “guaranteeing” a rate cut come the FOMC’s 18 December Policy Statement; (yes, ’tis nonsensical). Looking at current correlations amongst the five primary BEGOS components, the best is negative between the Euro and Oil; notably, Oil yesterday confirmed a close above its Market Magnet, suggestive of still higher prices near-term, perhaps a breakout above the mid-71s top from two weeks ago. Included in today’s incoming Econ Baro metrics we’ve November’s wholesale inflation reads per the PPI.