Mark

The Spoo has crept back below today’s Neutral Zone; above same is the Bond, and volatility is mostly moderate. The S&P 4100 area is displaying the anticipated resistance in concert with Q2 Earnings Season remaining comparatively weak: the “live” P/E of the S&P in a single day yesterday (wherein the Index itself was down a quiet -0.3%) leapt from 33.4x to 35.3x; better than half-way through the Season, 38% of S&P constituents reporting have not improved their bottom lines of a year ago: and back then, interest rates were essentially zero versus 2%-to-3% money today. Our live reading of the Spoo finds it 323 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), whilst the Spoo settled yesterday 122 points above its Market Magnet.

01 Aug ’22, 09:14 Central Euro Time: Save for the Euro and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets commence the week to the downside, notably at present with both Silver and Copper trading below today’s respective Neutral Zones (“NZ”). The S&P 500’s recent relief rally has extended the Index by “textbook technicals” to being “extremely overbought”, the Spoo itself (in real-time) now 356 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), its highest deviation in better than two years. As noted in The Gold Update, the S&P has yet to test its 3600-3200 support zone, which we anticipate to occur in due course given the advantageous yield in the Bond market and the historically high “live” P/E of the S&P now reading 33.7x. The Gold Update further affirms by our Economic Barometer the StateSide economy being clearly weaker than suggested by the mildly negative Q2 GDP. The Econ Baro today looks to July’s ISM(Mfg) Index and June’s Construction Spending.

29 Jul ’22, 09:15 Central Euro Time: As anticipated these recent months, “The Recession” is now formally recognized, (and absent the Chain Deflator ’tis rather severe as ’twill be noted in tomorrow’s edition of The Gold Update). Today, the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold and Silver all are trading at present above their respective NZs; none of the other BEGOS Markets are below same, and volatility is moderate. Per our 18 Jul comment, the S&P 500 is near to its 4100 structural resistance area (yesterday’s high being 4079). ‘Tis a busy conclusion to the week for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including Jul’s Chi PMI, Jun’s Personal Income/Spending and Fed-watched Core PCE Inflation Index, plus Q2’s Employment Cost Index.